Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Colts/Texans 1:00: The first meeting this season and will meet again Dec 20th. Colts have covered 4 straight in this series and should deliver here. They're coming off a blowout revenge loss as expected last week. Tennessee ran all over them; however, Colts get back one of their top DL Buckner (Off Covid list). Houston, which sports one of the worst running games in the NFL (31st) shouldn't gash them with David Johnson (probable) like King Henry did last week. Moreover, QB Watson won't have top receiver and vertical threat Will Fuller (suspension). Brandin Cooks now the #1 but not as effective in explosive plays. Colts' offense should have their C Kelly back which will help offensively. Houston's top secondary player C Roby is out which will surely help Rivers connect with his well stocked arsenal of weapons. Colts generally bounce back in these games; after all, they're 6-0-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. |
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12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -4.5 | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Browns/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it looks as if the Browns at 8-3 SU are in the hunt to be a legitimate contender in the AFC; however, a closer look reveals they've beaten just 1 team with a winning record (Indianapolis on Oct 11th). They do have the #1 run game in the NFL with Chubb and Hunt but it's not translating into spread wins (1-5 ATS). Tennessee is heating up and sports the #2 run game behind Derrick Henry and that spells trouble for defenses in December. And Tannehill will have another weapon - Adam Humphries - to add to his wealth of weaponry. TE Jonnu Smith (knee) won't play which is a loss. Good thing Browns a bit thin in secondary with LCB Denzel Ward out. Vrabel is 6-1 ATS off a division win and the Titans should deliver. |
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12-05-20 | Alabama -29 v. LSU | 55-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
Alabama/LSU 8:00: We won't be afraid of the heavy chalk here. Alabama not only wants revenge from last year's 46-41 loss but the after game shenanigans by Orgeron and his players. Saban wants his recruiting base back and doesn't like Orgeron stepping on his toes. He'll be back on the sidelines tonight after taking last week off (Covid issues). LSU looks bad offensively with poor QB play from Finley and Max Johnson; moreover, continued missed assignments on the offensive line resulting in a poor run game (114th in nation). 'Tide defense good enough to stall them out for 4 quarters. On the other hand, young LSU defense was respectable last week vs A&M but face a different animal tonight. Mac Jones and company should light up a vulnerable secondary that's allowed 303 YPG! Roll Tide! |
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12-05-20 | Clemson -21.5 v. Virginia Tech | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
12-05-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 6-42 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
West Virginia/Iowa State 3:30: Big backer of Iowa State and Matt Campbell over the last 4 seasons but will fade them here. Coming off a huge win over Texas, feeling good and in line for Big 12 Championship; however, they're welcoming revenge against a coach (Neal Brown) who sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog with revenge. Brown's Mountaineers got beat up pretty good at home last year 38-14. This season, WV has been in virtually every game (5-2 ATS) with a legitimate Top 10 defense and a good run game behind RB Leddie Brown. And QB Doege doing a decent job at the helm. Iowa State's had some trouble in December football at 1-6 ATS. And WV has a history of delivering vs an opponent off back-to-back wins at 11-0 ATS! Throw in that extra prep week for Neal Brown and we got ourselves a play on the Mounties. |
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12-05-20 | Bowling Green v. Akron -2.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
Bowling Green/Akron 2:00: Two struggling teams in the MAC which look to get in the win column for the first time this season. We'll look for the Zips to break the longest losing streak in college football with a win on their home turf. Seeking revenge from last year's 35-6 blowout at Bowling Green, Akron should be able to get their anemic offense going vs a pathetic Falcons' defense. BG allows 524.3 YPG and an almost non-existent run-stop-unit allowing 339 YPG! Akron has a decent running back in Dollard, some decent offensive linemen and a few good wideouts. Defensively, Zips not good but should be able to limit a pedestrian BG offense that averages just 13.5 PPG. Akron the call. |
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12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Texas A&M/Auburn Noon: Tigers 4-1 ATS in this series and played very well at home this year (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS). Sure, Auburn got blasted by a very good Alabama team last week but should bounce back vs an overrated A&M team that they can be competitive against. Auburn sports a 6-1 ATS mark in December and 9-0 ATS as a dog of 3+ points after allowing 35+. Auburn the call. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette/Appalachian State 8:30: Lots of action on Appalachian State coming off blowout of lightweight Troy. We'll grab the points with the explosive Ragin' Cajuns. HC Billy Napier took the baton from Mark Hudspeth in 2018 and is running with it like Bob Hayes in the '64 Olympics. He took ULL to two consecutive bowls and currently 8-1 SU. ULL is a dangerous dog - ask Iowa State - which is currently in line to vie for the Big 12 title. ULL went into Ames, IA and came out a 31-14 winner. 'Cajuns can hit teams from all angles with their explosive play ability - punt returns, kick returns, vertical passing game. And versatile QB Levi Lewis has 16 TD passes and 5 rush TDs. Defensively, they play the pass well with a ball hawking secondary but do have trouble stopping the run. And that is Appalachian State's game. Nevertheless, we're rolling with a Ragin' Cajuns team that an amazing 12-2 SU/ATS mark as a single digit dog. App State failed in their only step up out of conference winning opponent - Marshall 17-7 loss. ULL the call. |
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12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers -10 | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Baltimore 3:40: Could have definitely been a trouble spot for Pittsburgh; after all, they're coming off a comfortable win against lightweight Jacksonville back home into a revenge game vs a division rival that's 4-0-2 ATS at Heinz Field. However, the dynamic has changed now that the linchpin of their offensive machine - Lamar Jackson (Covid 19) is out. RG III a step slow in comparison and not enough field time to get in rhythm with receiving corps, especially against a legitimate top tier defense in the NFL with few if any weaknesses. Moreover, take RBs Ingram and J.K. Dobbins (out) away and that spells limited yardage. Consequently, I see too many three and outs that will ultimately put too much stress on a good defense but not able to sustain Pittsburgh's multiple weapons for 4 quarters. Baltimore 1-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a SU loss vs a .500 or greater division foe. Steelers not good double digit favorite at 1-7 ATS but under the circumstances, Steelers have no mercy for their division rival and we'll roll with them but lightly tread. |
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12-01-20 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4 | 62-65 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
11-30-20 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Eagles | 23-17 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Eagles 8:15: Seahawks got a few extra days rest; consequently, some bodies are getting healthier including C Pocic and RB Carson. Carson and Hyde should see lots of carries against the porous run stop unit of the Eagles ranked 28th in the NFL allowing 133.4 YPG. On the other hand, Seahawks' defense getting a bit healthier too with CB Griffin good to go and S Adams (shoulder) will play through the pain. And DE acquisition from Cincinnati - Dunlap -already paid dividends (winning sack vs Arizona). Eagles' offense remains inept with Wentz (14 INT/10 fumbles) at controls and could use Hurts. Seattle will be prepared for both. Pete Carroll always dangerous on prime time and won't fade him here despite the Eagles looking for double revenge from last year including playoff loss. Seattle a sweet 14-2 ATS vs .400 or less foe with revenge off back to back SU losses. Seattle the call. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Eagles 8:15: Both games last season ended in 17-9 wins by Seattle. Seattle does own the worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed but have shown improvement in areas including pass rush with the signing of Dunlap. Philadelphia is one of the poorer offenses they've faced this season and do play to their strength; after all, Seattle is #3 defending the run and should take away the Eagles' run game with Sanders and Scott. Eagles 0-4 O/U in last 4 games and 2-11 O/U at home vs non division conference opponent over the last 5 seasons. "Under" the call. |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
49ers/Rams 4:05: October 18th, the 49ers outdueled the Rams 24-16 in San Francisco. Garoppolo was sharp in that game but he won't play today. Nick Mullins will get the nod and surely won't instill fear in the #1 defense (in terms of yards allowed) in the NFL. Rams ball hawking secondary should keep SF offense quiet. On the other hand, SF's DC Saleh has done a great job vs McVay over the last 3 games. And having CB Richard Sherman back in action will surely help the SF secondary containing Woods and Kupp. Heavy "under" trends on SF including 2-5 O/U as a road dog. Rams are on a 1-6 O/U run and 7-19 O/U as a home favorite. Rams look to work methodically down the field with run game, boot and play action off it. SF has the defense to counter effectively. SF offense not explosive enough to gash this year's Rams' defense. "Under" the call. |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals v. Patriots +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Patriots 1:00: Trouble spot for Arizona traveling cross country to a Foxborough where the Patriots sport a solid 27-17 ATS mark as a November dog. Moreover, Patriots an electric 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home dog roles. Sure, Arizona has the #1 offense with dangerous skill weaponry; however, don't underestimate Belichick's scheming on how to slow down a high powered offense on his home turf this time of year - as exhibited against Baltimore November 15th. Both teams a bit banged up but give the edge to New England here. Patriots' offense not explosive but do sport the #4 run offense pounding out 154 YPG. Arizona run stop unit (allowing 125 YPG #23 in NFL) not equipped to handle the pounding on this field for 4 quarters. Technically, Arizona 2-17 ATS as a .500 team in November vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. NE, on the other hand, a cash grabbing 13-1 ATS off a non division game vs an opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Grab the dangerous home dog. |
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11-29-20 | Titans +3 v. Colts | 45-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Titans/Colts 1:00: I had the Colts in the first matchup and they delivered. Today, Tennessee should get revenge. Colts' #2 defense will be without 3 key starters including linemen Buckner, Autry and SLB Okereke. That amounts to 119 tackles, 8.5 sacks and 1 INT. Consequently, look for the Titans to ride their horse - Derrick Henry - which will certainly make life easier on QB Tannehill who has enough weaponry to go to on play action even without WR Humphries (out). And offensively, Colts will be without their starting C Kelly (neck). Sure, Titans not a good pass rush team but should find a way to exploit the A gaps. Titans will also have C Tye Smith back to bolster secondary. And I don't anticipate another blocked punt on account of the return of 3 time Pro Bowl punter - Brett Kern back in action. Tennessee a sweet 6-0 ATS vs an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins. Moreover, they're 11-2 ATS off a SU dog win vs a division opponent off a home game. And throw in the fact that teams meeting within two weeks of first meeting has historically gone to the revenge seeker to the tune of 18-7 ATS! Titans the call. |
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11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Chargers/Bills 1:00: Sure, Chargers are traveling cross country in late November to face a pissed off a stewing Bills team that lost on a Hail Murray two weeks ago. But not so fast. Ironically, the warm weather Chargers are 34-20 ATS on the November road. Chargers manage to stay in games, that's what they do. They haven't lost any game this season by more than one score. Their #3 offense in the NFL led by QB Justin Herbert allows them hang around. And Buffalo's defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams roaming the secondary, Bills could be on their heels here. We'll look for Anthony Lynn to go 3-0 ATS in his tenure vs the Bills. |
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11-28-20 | LSU v. Texas A&M -15 | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
11-28-20 | Mississippi State +10 v. Ole Miss | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Ole Miss 4:00: Mississippi State has gotten the best of this Egg Bow rivalry at 3-1 SU/ATS over the last 4 years. Two new coaching staffs and will side with Leach and the Bulldogs. Mississippi State finally establishing a bit of rhythm in their offense the way Leach likes it. Freshman QB Will Rogers stepped in and did a nice job vs an aggressive Georgia defense completing 79% of his passes for 330 yards and no INTs. Ole Miss defense is much more yielding allowing a generous 530 YPG. Sure, Ole Miss QB Matt Corral can sling it but Miss State capable of trading points and keeping it tight. Ole Miss off since November 14th, should be a bit rusty. Miss State the call. |
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11-28-20 | Pittsburgh +23.5 v. Clemson | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Clemson 3:30: Narduzzi has been a dangerous dog as a head coach; as a matter of fact, he's defeated a Top 25 team in four consecutive seasons and surely can give Clemson a run for the money today. Keep in mind, in 2016, his Panthers were the last team to defeat Clemson (43-42) at Memorial Stadium at Clemson. And now that QB Kenny Pickett is healthy (404 yards passed last week), the Panthers are able to hang. Pittsburgh defense is rock solid leading the nation in TFLs (tackles for loss) and 2nd in the nation in sacks. Clemson may be out of rhythm not having played since November 7th OT loss @ Notre Dame; furthermore, QB Lawrence hasn't played since October 24th. Clemson 0-6 ATS off SU favorite loss. Pitt a sweet 10-0 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opponent off SU favorite loss. Take the points. |
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11-28-20 | Penn State v. Michigan +1 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Penn State/Michigan Noon: Two former Big 10 powerhouses reduced to mediocrity this year. We'll roll with the Wolverines whom have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. Michigan is seeking to exact revenge from last year's 28-21 loss at Happy Valley. Penn State has not had success in its last two trips to the Big House where they were outscored by a combined 91-17. Penn State offense struggling to find a QB as Clifford and Levis ineffective. Michigan defense the worst in years but should be solid vs the turnover laden Lions. On the other hand, Harbaugh may have found his QB in Cade McNamara who rallied Michigan last week vs Rutgers. Penn State, like Michigan, allows a generous 36 PPG. Michigan a bit better holding on to the ball as Penn State sports a poor minus 9 turnover margin. Michigan the call. |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Notre Dame/North Carolina 3:30: Never a good idea to underestimate Mack Brown getting his team prepared for big games. Brown has always been a dangerous dog including last year's 21-20 loss as a 27' point dog to Clemson. This year's team was expected to do great things but has underachieved; however, they're more than equipped with more maturity to keep this competitive against the #2 ranked Irish. Irish coming off a bye but will be without four year starting RG Tommy Kraemer (appendectomy). They're already without C Patterson (foot). Sure, NC defense gives up points but their explosive #4 offense (563.4 YPG) can trade points with any team in the country. QB Howell is as good as any QB in the nation. And keep in mind NC sports a +4 turnover margin to ND's -2 turnover margin. ND offense has made mistakes and the yielding but opportunistic Heels' defense can capitalize. Tar Heels 4-1 ATS as a home dog and a sweet 25-7 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Mack Brown's boys have been strong off underachieving performances (5-1 ATS off ATS loss) and should deliver here. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Texas Noon: Iowa State has a rare chance to win the Big 12 for the first time since 1912. They're on their way and have a legitimate chance this year and will need to beat Texas. They did it last year 23-21 and they're capable of delivering here. ISU HC Campbell has his team rolling on both sides of the ball coming off a blowout of a good KSU team. ISU has a better defense than Texas across the board. Offensively, every bit as productive with QB Purdy, O-Line and strong run game with RB Breece Hall (1,169 yards); moreover, a bit more disciplined with less penalties. Longhorns 1-6 ATS on Fridays and 0-3-1 ATS as chalk. Iowa State the call. |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 46 | 41-16 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington/Dallas 4:30: Washington with an underrated defense led by Jack Del Rio. They're #1 defending the pass and lately limiting explosive plays. Dallas offense surely not as dangerous with Dalton as they were with Prescott. Dallas 1-4 O/U since Prescott went down vs NYG. The Dallas defense, however, was horrific up until visiting Philadelphia. That was a game after Washington pounded the rock for 208 rush yards and 189 yards passing. Dallas has crept up the defensive standings since and should be much better today; after all, Washington does not have a vertical passing game and likes to control the clock with Alex Smith at the helm. Washington is on a 1-5 O/U run and 1-12 O/U vs division following a non-division game. Dallas is 0-6 O/U after allowing 350+ yards. We'll stay "under" here. |
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11-23-20 | Rams +4.5 v. Bucs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Rams/Bucs 8:15: Tampa Bay has been disappointing in their prime time games this season. They barely squeaked by at Chicago and New York, and got blasted by New Orleans at home. TB hasn't been great in this spot. Just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite on Monday Night's and 0-5 ATS off a win as a MNF favorite. Rams have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series yet got beaten 55-40 last year at home. We'll look for a prepared Rams team to deliver here. Rams sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, the #2 pass defense and #2 in points allowed. TB has had protection issues for Brady and it won't get easier vs Aaron Donald and company. On the other hand, TB has a dominant defense itself, including very good linebackers but young and inexperienced in secondary. Goff has talented skill players in Kupp, Woods, Reynolds and TE Higbee. And throw in a deep backfield with Malcolm Brown, Henderson Jr. and Cam Akers, TB's aggressive blitz packages by DC Boles could backfire. Arians just 1-9 ATS as an above .500 team off a division games vs a .500 or greater opponent. Rams the call. |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings -7 | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
Dallas/Vikings 4:25: Dallas may be a trendy pick coming off a bye after giving the Steelers a rough time. Won't buy into it. Dallas' HC McCarthy most likely going with Andy Dalton who threw 1TD/3 INTs in his 0-2 starting experience with Dallas. Minnesota defense starting to play with confidence and the offense is gelling in their 6-1 ATS tear. Cowboys' porous run stop unit won't have an answer for RB Delvin Cook. Vikings a sweet 20-5 ATS as home chalk vs non-division opponent. Minnesota 7-0 ATS last 7 at home vs Dallas. |
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11-22-20 | Titans +6.5 v. Ravens | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 142 h 42 m | Show | |
Titans/Ravens 1:00: Both of these teams not playing their best football. Both teams on a 1-3 slide. Titans do have a bit more recovery time to stew over latest loss. Titans, as I expected, fell to Indy last Thursday but should bounce back in this spot. Titans ran all over a healthy Baltimore defense January 11th. Derrick Henry should be able to gallop for a good amount of yards against a short handed run stop unit without NT Williams and Calais Campbell. Tannehill may not have Humphries (out) available but A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith is enough weaponry to work Baltimore's secondary. Ravens' offense not nearly as explosive as last years and HC Vrabel should once again come up with good game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Ravens a money burning 1-8 ATS off non-division SU favorite loss. Tennessee the call. |
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11-22-20 | Lions v. Panthers +3 | Top | 0-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Lions/Panthers 1:00: Both teams battling injuries and illnesses; however, Carolina poised to deliver here on their home field. Detroit hasn't beaten Carolina since the 90s on this field and with some key offensive personnel out, I don't see it happening here. WR Golladay (hip) is a big-time playmaker for QB Stafford and he'll be out today. Detroit just 1-3 ATS without Golladay. Moreover, rookie RB Swift (concussion) has been a playmaker out of the backfield and on the ground and will be missed. Furthermore, Stafford is battling a throwing hand thumb injury to further hamper offensive production. Panthers have a better defense than Detroit and should play well here. Offensively, sure QB Bridgewater (MCL) should be out but Carolina's HC Rhule will have P.J. Walker prepared. Walker has some very good playmakers surrounding him despite McCaffrey out. D.J. Moore, Samuel, Robbie Anderson and Mike Davis should scorch a poorly coached defensive secondary of Detroit. Panthers overdue for a win and it should come here. They're 9-1-1 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs non-division opponent. |
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11-22-20 | Patriots -1.5 v. Texans | 20-27 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Patriots/Texans 1:00: Patriots doing what they do when adversity strikes: making the right adjustments. Patriots devoted to the ground game in their 2-1 SU/ATS run; over that span, they've averaged 173.3 YPG rushing. We'll look for them to pound the rock against the NFL's worst run stop unit that allows a generous 167.4 YPG. On the flip side, Houston has been unable to generate a ground game with a pedestrian 87.9 YPG (31st in NFL). Belichick should develop a good scheme to contain Houston's main weapons - QB Watson and WR Fuller. Patriots 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in this series and should deliver. |
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11-21-20 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech/Pittsburgh 4:00: Pittsburgh had an extra week of rest (Covid 19) but got to resume practice Tuesday and should be good to go. Defensively, the Panthers are the real deal with a Top 10 defense in the nation. They lead the nation in TFL's with 93 and play the run well (allow 78.8 YPG) at #2 in the nation. They can limit VT's vaunted run game. Offensively, now that QB Pickett is back in the fray (out vs ND & Miami), they can get the offense cooking again vs a V Tech defense that is not the same this season as in seasons past under the great DC Bud Foster. V Tech surrendering 450.4 YPG! Not a team I want to be laying points on the road with, especially at a location they haven't won ATS at since 1999. Pitt is looking to avenge last year's 28-0 dud and we'll grab Narduzzi's boys here. Pitt 10-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS win vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Northwestern no joke this year. 11th ranked defense in the nation in total yards allowed and #2 vs the run. Offensively, Indiana graduate transfer - Patrick Ramsey brings an accurate QB to the field with a productive offense. NW has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series at Ryan Field. Wisconsin off huge blowout of Michigan and deserved of #10 ranking; however, hungry NW looking to avenge last year's 24-15 loss in Madison. Badgers just 2-13 ATS off SU & ATS win vs opponent off back-to-back SU & ATS wins. NW the call. |
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11-21-20 | LSU v. Arkansas +1 | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
LSU/Arkansas Noon: Arkansas' HC Pittman (Covid 19) should be patrolling the sidelines today and we'll roll with him. Arkansas is 6-0 ATS with him on the sidelines. The Hogs got steamrolled last week vs an electric Florida offense that had great receivers and a Heisman Trophy QB contender. Today, they match up better. LSU is young and inexperienced in many areas. Sure, LSU WR Marshall is big time but the Tigers' QB situation still shaky. Finley didn't look comfortable at Auburn and he'll get the nod today. Arkansas has an opportunistic defense (13 turnovers) and should perform better defensively. Same is said offensively. QB Franks was under fire vs Florida but should have help with his run game against an LSU defense that allows 142 YPG. Moreover, an LSU pass defense that allows 335 YPG. Hogs took a beating last year vs the incumbent national champions, but should get revenge today vs a completely different team. |
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11-21-20 | Georgia Southern v. Army -3 | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern/Army Noon: Both triple option teams but Army has the edge here. The #2 run unit in the nation with a better defense. Black Knights have yet to lose a game at Michie Stadium this year and they're in an angry mode after dropping last weeks game at Tulane. Extra incentive for Army HC Monken who used to coach the Eagles (2010-13). Knights 4-0 ATS off SU loss of 20+. They're 7-1 ATS as a favorite and roll with them. |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico +9.5 v. Air Force | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
New Mexico/Air Force 9:30: Air Force coming off a bye after their home loss to Boise State. There are still question marks regarding their starter tonight. Daniels went down with a shoulder injury last week and Warren Bryan stepped in with unimpressive results (3 of 6 for 36 yards). AF lives by the run game which is #1 in the nation; however, NM plays the run well - #3 in the nation - allowing just 81 YPG. Rocky Long, yes that Rocky Long, who was a successful long time DC and head coach at New Mexico and San Diego State, is the Lobos' DC. He has been very successful in his 3-3-5 over the years stopping Air Force's vaunted triple option. New Mexico has been horrible defending the pass this season but AF won't put fear in the Lobos' secondary tonight. NM has had success in TFL's (14) and should be competitive. Offensively, NM's backup Trae Hall did a decent job last week. If Tuioti is unable to go, Hall can get it done. NM, a mediocre offense in production, yet has been very good protecting the ball this season (0 turnovers). They've stayed in games including 2-0 ATS last 2 vs pretty good offensive teams of Hawaii and Nevada. NM can be competitive here; after all, they're 7-1 ATS in this series! NM lost but covered late last year in this series. AF is 0-7 ATS vs less than .400 conference team w/ revenge. New Mexico the call. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Arizona/Seattle 8:20: Hard to put a big play on the Seahawks laying points with their atrocious defense (32nd in NFL); however, Pete Carroll finds a way to bring the best out of his players in this situation. Remember, October 25th, Arizona edged Seattle in Arizona 37-34 in OT. Seattle is 1-2 since that game including 2 straight losses. Carroll is a sweet 12-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses and has not lost 3 straight games since 2011 when his Seahawks lost but actually covered at Dallas. Moreover, he's one of the great prime-time TV coaches including 7-1-2 ATS on Thursday nights. Sure, Seattle has its injury problems but should have Carlos Hyde back to pick up a run game that went south (just 4.04 YPC) with Deejay Dallas, Travis Homer and Alex Collins running the rock. The first 7 weeks they were averaging 5.25 YPG with Hyde and Carson in the backfield. With Cardinals NT Corey Peters out with a season ending injury, Seattle should get the run game cooking to open up the pass game for Russell Wilson. Lockett is good to go. He lit up Arizona in Game 1 with 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 TDs. Metcalf got stalled out by CB Patterson in that game but always dangerous. Edge to Seattle here. |
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11-19-20 | Tulane +6.5 v. Tulsa | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
Tulane/Tulsa 7:30: Willie Fritz has done a great job in turning around a Tulane football program that was a doormat for years. In his fifth year, he's delivered winning seasons in his last two years including 2-0 SU/ATS in bowl games. This year, he has the Green Wave rolling off 3 straight wins by at least 17 points including notching a win over a Top 25 team (beat Army last week) for the first time in 36 years for the Green Wave. His Green Wave defeated Tulsa for 3 straight years. Sure, Tulsa is rolling with huge comeback wins with a really good QB and an outstanding linebacker. But I'll take Fritz over Montgomery in matching coaching wits any day of the week. Tulane has playmakers themselves with freshman QB Pratt maturing quickly (14/4 TD/INT last 7 starts). And a potent run game (243.2 YPG) that can wear down Tulsa's defense. Moreover, they've got the nation's sack leader in DE Patrick Johnson (10 sacks). Tulane 6-1 ATS off double digit ATS win vs conference opponent with revenge. Take the points. |
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11-18-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +6.5 | 45-28 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
Toledo/Eastern Michigan 7:00: Eastern Michigan overdue to get a win after two close calls against the explosive offenses of Kent State and Ball State. Once again, they face another formidable offensive team that's hung 525.5 YPG on foes. But Eastern Michigan hangs around - that's what they do. 12 of their last 17 games have been decided by 8 points or less. The Eagles' versatile QB Hutchinson can move the offense. And defensively, Turan Rush is a disruptive force to QBs. Toledo defense not that aggressive and only registering 1/2 sack a game. EM 3-1 ATS in this series and will hang tight once again. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Vikings/Bears 8:15: Hard to back a Vikings team that's had trouble winning prime time games; more specifically, MNF. Vikings have lost 10 straight MNF tilts. Cousins is 0-9 on MNF. Vikings are on a nice run as Zimmer has them playing better (5-1 ATS); however, Vikings going on the road with some players out due to injury and illness. OL Samia (Covid 19 positive), DE Brailford (personal) and CB Dantzler (concussion) won't help matters; moreover, some others on Covid 19 protocol. Vikings have had their share of of trouble traveling to Chicago going a money burning 3-14 ATS. The dog in this series is 5-1 ATS. Bears' offense in a funk as Nagy is surrendering play calling duties to Bill Lazor. Foles should turn up his game a notch against a Minnesota defense that has had pressuring the QB and ranked 30th in total yards allowed. Bears should break 0-3 SU slide and deliver here. Take the points. |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -125 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Rams 4:25: Recent history suggests a tight game; however, Seahawks off a bruising affair in Buffalo have rough sledding ahead now that they back to the coast to play well rested rival Los Angeles. Seahawks have injuries across the board including starting C Pocic who will be replaced by Kyle Fuller in his first NFL start. Fuller is an athletic guy but going up against the front runner for Defensive Player of the Year - Aaron Donald - is a monumental task. Moreover, Seattle getting thin at RB as Carson (foot) and Hyde (hamstring) are struggling to recover. Meanwhile, Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer not able to carry the run game putting more pressure on QB Russell Wilson to deliver. Rams have the #2 defense in the NFL and a ball hawking secondary; meanwhile, Pete Carroll is doing everything possible to pencil in players on a defense that is dead last in yards allowed and pass yardage allowed. Rams' offense should have a solid game. Seattle 1-5 ATS off a double-digit loss vs an opponent off a bye week. Rams are 4-1 SU the last 4 in this matchup and should deliver. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | 30-32 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Arizona 4:05: Arizona in a good position here. Coming off a loss and should outscore a Bills team traveling cross country. Bills, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road tilts, have defensive breakdowns that are uncharacteristic of the Bills' defense over the last few years; moreover, they will have to do without CB Josh Norman (Covid 19) and fellow corner Wallace (Covid protocol). Arizona, which has the #1 offense in the NFL, is loaded with weaponry (Hopkins, Kirk, Fitzgerald, Murray, Drake) should outscore the Bills here; after all, Arizona is a sweet 14-2 ATS when the O/U line is above 50 points. They're also a strong 13-1 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent off a SU/ATS win. Arizona defense not great but respectable in the red zone where they make plays. We'll lay a few points with the Cardinals here. |
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11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3.5 | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Texans/Browns 1:00: Texans not to be trusted off a win, especially a division win. They're 1-9 ATS on the road off a SU division win vs an opponent over .500. So far, Houston has only demonstrated they can beat lightweight division rival Jacksonville (2-0 SU /1-1 ATS). Today, they face a well rested Browns team that's responded well off losses. Browns are 4-0 ATS at home vs teams below .500. With Chubb now probable, the Browns can amp up a potent run game with Hunt vs the worst run stop unit in the NFL. Texans allow nearly 160 YPG on the ground. Mayfield at his best when that ground game is cooking. Even without Beckham Jr. (IR), Higgins, Landry and Peoples-Jones, TE Hooper more than enough weaponry to work play action on a suspect secondary. As for Houston, lack of run game has been their problem for most of the year and even though former Browns' RB Duke Johnson is a respectable fill in for David Johnson (out), Texans' O Line still not getting it done. Browns deliver. |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Eagles/Giants 1:00: Giants on a 5-1 ATS tear and should avenge October 22nd one point loss - a game in which they were up 21-10 in the fourth quarter. Both teams are turnover laden but Giants cleaned up their turnover problem last week in win over Washington. We'll look for a carry over effect here in this heated divisional rivalry. Eagles just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite; moreover, the Eagles days of dominating off a bye - when Andy Reid was patrolling the sidelines - (13-1) are over. Under Pederson they're just 1-3. Giants' OC Garrett should know this Eagles' defense well; after all, he's faced it for over a decade. We'll look for the Giants to hang tough here. |
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11-14-20 | Arkansas +17.5 v. Florida | Top | 35-63 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
Arkansas/Florida 7:00: Arkansas now a perfect 6-0 ATS after delivering 24 unanswered points last week vs Tennessee. Tonight, we're back on the Hogs. They're facing an overjoyed Florida team coming off a a monster 44-28 win over Georgia. Sure, QB Kyle Trask is lighting it up but won't have his go-to receiver TE Kyle Pitts (concussion protocol). Arkansas won't have HC Pittman (Covid 19) but former Missouri HC and current DC Barry Odom is capable of filling in. Arkansas defense leads the nation in forced turnovers (12) and no joke. Offensively, former Gator - Feleipe Franks - doing a nice job running offense. The Hogs play solid ball with limited turnovers and should be able to hang around here. We'll look for Arkansas to improve to 9-0 in the dog role. |
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11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -3 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
TCU/West Virginia Noon: Big fan of Neal Brown who did wonders with Troy and now steering WV in the right direction. WV has a legitimate #4 ranked defense in the country and should be able to stall out an average TCU offense led by QB Duggan. Duggan, who does most of his damage on the ground, was held in check by the WV defense last year (23 yards on 8 carries) with 2 INTs and no TDs. Mounties defense even better this year. I'm not going heavy on this because of the status of LB Josh Chandler-Semedo (questionable) with knee injury. He's a big part of what they do. TCU's HC Patterson is a great defensive coach and they're playing well on road; however, we're banking on RB Leddie Brown (questionable) to set the tone in the WV productive run game. And QB Doege doing a pretty good job at the helm. WV 11-0 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And they're 6-1 ATS as a home favorite vs .500 opponents. Mounties the call. |
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11-14-20 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -17 | 35-38 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 42 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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11-14-20 | Miami-FL +3 v. Virginia Tech | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Miami Fla/Virginia Tech Noon: Miami Florida in revenge mode from last year's 42-35 loss at home. Last year, the Hurricanes' offense was weak. This year, their offense is respectable under versatile Houston transfer QB D'Eriq King. The 'Canes should be able to drop 40+ on a Virginia Tech defense that left town with their retired DC Bud Foster. The feeble Hokie stop unit is giving up a whopping 469 YPG. And losing their second best LB Ashby won't help today. Tech is a money burning 3-16 ATS as favorites of less than 17 points vs an opponent with revenge. Canes have their share of problems defensively but can make stops when needed. Tech will also be without their RB Herbert (3rd in ACC in rushing) and TE Mitchell. The U will be back, at least for this game. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Colts/Titans 8:20: Colts coming off a disappointing loss in which QB Rivers threw a questionable interception to allow Ravens to put away the game; however, prior to that, Colts held the explosive Baltimore offense in check. Indy defense solid and deserved of their #3 scoring defense and #3 vs the run. Titans' offense may be even more versatile than Baltimore's as Tannehill is having a career year and bruising RB Henry is on track for 1700 rushing yards. Nevertheless, we'll jump back on Indy in this spot. Rivers will have T.Y. Hilton (groin) back to team with Pascal. Would like to see more RB Hines. Jonathan Taylor has to hold on to the rock because Titans, although a yielding defense, are opportunistic with 13 takeaways. But they're having trouble rushing the passer as big acquisition Clowney not getting it done and, ultimately, should give Indy the edge. Reich 7-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater opponent. Colts 3-1 ATS at Tennessee. And they're 5-0-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Edge to Indianapolis. |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 9 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Ball State 7:00: Not buying the near double digit spread with an overrated Ball State team. Sure, their offense is respectable with QB Drew Pitt and RB Huntley. Yet the Cardinals give up way too many points defensively. They allowed the sluggish offense of Miami Ohio to drop 38 points on them. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, is limited in arsenal; however, they're well coached and find ways of staying in games, as demonstrated against a pretty good Kent State team in a 27-23 loss last week. EM 21-6 ATS road run and 3-0 ATS in Muncie. Moreover, the Eagles are a sweet 18-4-1 ATS on the road in games off a loss under Creighton including 13 straight in that role! Cardinals got the best of them last year but EM should keep it tight in the revenge role here. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo OVER 56 | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 8:15: Hard to see lots of points tonight; after all, both offenses are struggling badly. Patriots' QB Newton has just 2 TDs with 7 INTs and 1 lost fumble. He has limited weaponry with Edelman on IR and N'Keal Harry out. Jet's defense struggling on account of an offense that can't get the ball in the end zone. They average a league low 11.8 PPG and are at the bottom of virtually every offensive category. QB Darnold is listed as doubtful so Flacco, who has actually been decent, will most likely take over the controls. Problem is that he's got limited weaponry and a patchwork offensive line. Defensively, Patriots won't have C Gilmore (knee) and scattered injuries across the board; nevertheless, enough talent and coaching to ward off the pedestrian offense of the Jets. Technically, Patriots 1-10 O/U on the road vs team with losing home record. This series is 1-7 O/U. "Under" the call. |
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11-09-20 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | 30-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 8:15: Patriots injuries and defections have limited success this year; however, still enough talent and coaching to get past the fizzling Jets. Patriots should pound the run game with top run stopper Quinnen Williams (hamstring) out. Jets last in passing and in 3rd down conversions. Despite CB Gilmore out, Belichick has enough defensive talent to stymie the Jets bungling offense. Need Cam Newton to step up his game and take care of the football. He surely has the coaching (OC Josh McDaniel) to help his game. Patriots have that tendency to deliver vs losing teams as their 22-7 ATS mark vs teams under .500 indicates. They're also 4-0 ATS after allowing 150+ rush yards. Jets 5-11-1 ATS at home and should succumb here. |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
Saints/Bucs 8:20: Thought this total would be set higher considering the trends and personnel. New Orleans has gone 7-0 O/U this season. Bucs are 6-0 O/U as a home favorite. This series has gone 5-1 O/U. The first game was a disappointment for Brady and TB; however, they've found their offensive rhythm since. Brady now connecting with his wealth of riches including Evans, Miller, Jones II, Gronk and Godwin could be available. Moreover, if that's not enough, all time vertical threat Antonio Brown is ready and that's not good news for a New Orleans' secondary that's given up an abundance of explosive plays (7 plays of 48+ yards). And the #1 TB defense looked ordinary Monday night vs the pedestrian Giants' offense, Brees will have his favorite target back - Michael Thomas to add to a solid stable of skill personnel. Both Brees (558) and Brady (559) will be competing for the all time TD mark on prime time TV. Bombs away. Over the call. |
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11-08-20 | Broncos +4 v. Falcons | 27-34 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Broncos/Falcons 1:00: Falcons not deserved of laying points. They're 0-4 ATS as a home favorite, 1-8 ATS as a favorite off a SU division win, and a money burning 0-12 ATS as a favorite vs non-division opponent off a division game. Sure, the Broncos have stumbled a few times but against elite opposition - KC and TB. The Broncos are a strong 6-1 ATS vs losing teams, and 6-0 ATS off division games. Denver did have some issues with Covid 19 as practice was called Wednesday to address that; nevertheless, Fangio is doing a great job holding the team together amid the injuries. We'll look for them to be competitive here. |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills OVER 55 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Bills 1:00: Decent day in Buffalo considering we're approaching the second week of November. An unseasonable 63 degrees with winds at 4 MPH; consequently, offensive football should be prevalent. Seahawks come to Buffalo with the worst defense (32nd); as a matter of fact their pass defense is the worst ever for this time of year - allowing an astounding 359 YPG! Buffalo's Josh Allen has some good skill personnel and they'll be sure to frequent the end zone. They also have a turnover problem (11) which could translate to quick Seattle points; after all, Seattle defense gives up yards and points but is opportunistic (forced 14 turnovers). On the flip side, Russell Wilson presides an offense that produces 414 YPG, completing 71% of his passes and has thrived on the long ball with Metcalf and Lockett. Buffalo defense not what it was the last few years. They're 23rd in the league in completion % allowed. Buffalo is 5-0 O/U off a SU win. Seattle 36-14 O/U vs non division in November. "Over" the call. |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts +1.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Ravens/Colts 1:00: Analysts saying Colts have built their record on weak foes and they have a point; however, the same can be said of Baltimore. With the exception of Cleveland, which they ambushed in Game 1, Ravens have feasted on lightweights Houston, Washington, Cincinnati and Philadelphia while losing to contenders KC and Pittsburgh. Baltimore, however, had 7 key defensive personnel at high risk (Covid 19 exposure) and did not practice. And they'll sorely miss LT Staley (season ending ankle injury). Lamar Jackson is still on his game running football but pass game off (31st in NFL). Indy defense no joke and ranked #2 vs the run (allow 79.9 YPG). QB Rivers probably won't have T.Y. Hilton but Pascal is picking up the slack and acrobatic RB Hines has emerged as another go-to option. Colts 8-1 ATS in this series and 3-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Baltimore 1-4 ATS slide and 0-7 ATS off a SU loss. We'll grab the home dog. |
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11-07-20 | Tennessee v. Arkansas +2 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Arkansas 7:30: The Razorbacks were not supposed to be anything special this season ranked only ahead of SEC doormat Vanderbilt in pre-season rankings; however, Arkansas and first year HC Sam Pittman had other ideas as the overachieving Hogs are 5-0 ATS! On the other hand, the Volunteers had lofty expectations but have been a bust. The underachieving Volunteers have been outscored 109-24 since halftime at Georgia on Oct 10th. QB Guarantano has been pressured routinely with little help from his offensive line. Arkansas' defense is opportunistic with 10 forced turnovers. Arkansas has a competitive offense behind Florida transfer QB Franks. He sports an 11/3 TD/INT ratio, completing 63%. Tennessee defense not living up to expectations. We'll look for Arkansas to keep crashing the party. |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas Noon: Texas is coming off OT win over Oklahoma State. It is a game in which the Longhorns finished with a 530--287 yard deficit. Texas has been playing behind virtually all year. Today, a good challenge awaits vs the vengeful Mounties. WV, which won easily over Kansas State last week, lost 42-31 last year in Neal Brown's first season. Don't dismiss Neal Brown in revenge. At Troy, he went 6-0 ATS as a road dog with revenge. He's got a solid QB in Doege, a Top 10 defense across the board, and an overall relatively healthy team. TX, on the other hand, has injuries to key personnel (Ingram), thin in the secondary, and is 14 yards per game less than West Virginia's offense but a much more yielding defense. Texas is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35+ points vs an opponent with revenge. WV the call. |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Iowa Noon: Iowa state couldn't have started worse in first two games. Two conference losses after a rough spring and multiple allegations for improprieties on the staff. Nevertheless, Iowa was competitive in both those losses losing by a combined 5 points. On the other hand, Michigan State coming off a triumphant victory over their instate rival Michigan in Mel Tucker's first year with the club. Ran the ball well, QB Lombardi looked great and the newly installed 4-2-5 confuse the Wolves. Michigan State has a history of underachieving off victories at 0-4 ATS and last week surely was a big one. Look for a hungry Iowa team to come out firing as Ferentz gets his team on track while Michigan State employs a letdown in Iowa City. |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +17 v. Virginia Tech | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Liberty/Virginia Tech Noon: Hokies coming off a big win at Louisville but have shown an inconsistency off wins (0-4 ATS). They're facing the undefeated Flames which have taken on a light schedule, and surely the line reflects that. But don't count a Hugh Freeze team out. Remember, he's a winner - accumulating a 54-32-1 ATS mark as a head coach. He's built Liberty into a #25 ranked team in less than two seasons. Moreover, he's had an additional week to prepare QB Malik Willis and company. Flames pounding out 265 YPC on the ground and will give a yielding Hokies' defense (allowing 195 YPG) a run for the money. V Tech, known for their fierce defenses under retired DC Bud Foster has softened up considerably under new DC Justin Hamilton whose defense allows 458.5 YPG; consequently, VT should allow Liberty to stay in this one. Take the points. |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State UNDER 63 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
BYU/Boise State 9:45: So far, BYU offense rolling but mostly against lightweight defenses. Boise defense no joke and will clearly test Zach Wilson and company. In addition, must now play on cold slippery turf tonight as the inclement weather should have an effect on offensive rhythm. Boise has a productive offense as well but faces a strong BYU defense with a strong front seven. Boise inexperienced along the offensive line could be the difference in moving the ball well. Under the call. |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming -3.5 v. Colorado State | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Colorado State 9:00: Cowboys are a bit ahead of the curve in football thus far compared with Colorado State. Wyoming's HC Craig Bohl has molded his team into a contender in his 7th year with the Cowboys. Wyoming has been in bowl games in 3 of the last 4 years (3-0 ATS in those). Defensively stout and relying on their RB Valladay last week, demolished an explosive offensive Hawaii team. We'll look for the same grind it out game against a rebuilding Colorado State team under Steve Addazio who has yet to find the right chemistry on both sides of the ball. There is uncertainty at QB with the more versatile Todd Centeio - good runner but average passer, and the better arm with O'Brien. They do have a good TE McBride. Nevertheless, we'll look for the well disciplined Wyoming defense to deliver. Cowboys are 9-0 ATS as favorites of less than 17 vs an opponent off a SU loss. Colorado State, which lost to Wyoming last year 17-7, is 0-5 ATS at home w/ revenge. Wyoming the call. |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming v. Colorado State UNDER 52.5 | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Colorado State 9:00: Heavy under trends for both of these teams; as a matter of fact, they're a combined 1-19 O/U in November. Both teams are more grind it out run oriented with solid defense. Rams' new HC Addazio had conservative offenses with good defenses while at Boston College and Temple. He does have a veteran defensive unit to work with this season but limited offensively. As for Wyoming, HC Bohl is 1-7 O/U off a SU win and he likes to run the rock. Valladay had 32 carries last week and should see a bulk of the offense tonight. "Under" the call. |
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11-05-20 | Packers -7 v. 49ers | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
Green Bay/San Francisco 8:20: 49ers hampered by injuries and illness across the board. With stars Garoppolo, TE Kittle, RB Mostert and RB Coleman out, limited weaponry for backup QB Mullens to operate with. Moreover, Covid 19 has benched WRs Bourne, Samuel and Aiyuk and starting LT Trent Williams; consequently, that leaves Mullens with WRs Trent Taylor and Richie James along with practice squad call ups. That's not going to strike fear in a decent Packers' secondary. Packers have their share of injuries too but not to SF's extent. RBs AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams most likely out. And Aaron Jones is questionable. Not to panic as RB Tyler Ervin has done a bang up job when called upon. Aaron Rodgers does have almost full capacity of playmakers to work with including Davonte Adams and a healthy list of TEs. Packers underachieved Sunday vs Minnesota but should bounce back strong here; after all, they're still bitter about being bounced last year out of the playoffs by SF 37-20. Packers 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and that trend should continue here. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs -12.5 v. Giants | 25-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay/New York 8:15: TB getting into a nice groove last few weeks. Buc's offensive line doing a pretty good job allowing Brady to get into rhythm; after all, he's thrown 15 TD passes to only 1 INT over the last 5 games. Sure, Godwin (finger) probably out but he's got Evans, Gronk, Miller and Jones II doing a bang up job. Giants' defensive front respectable but holes in secondary. And it's hard to see NY trading points. QB Jones has a shaky offensive line with limited skill weaponry as more injuries pile up (RB Freeman out). NY offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in virtually every category. That doesn't bode well vs the TB defense - ranked #1 in terms of allowing yards; moreover, #1 in stopping the run; consequently, more pressure on QB Jones to deliver. Technically, Giants a money burning 1-5 ATS as a home dog on MNF. TB HC Arians 9-2 ATS as a road favorite vs less than .500 opposition. Buccaneers the call. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Saints/Bears 4:25: On the surface, the prospects of the Bears delivering here looks bleak after their pedestrian offensive performance on Monday; however, Rams' defense is pretty good. Bears face a New Orleans' defense that has allowed 17 TD passes and 6 passes of 48+ over the last 4 games. Foles, who can throw the deep ball, will have WR Robinson (concussion) for this one. On the other hand, Bears' defense can clamp down and make plays. They've forced nine turnovers and tighten in the red zone. Keep in mind that Brees will still be without his top receiver - Michael Thomas (hamstring) and emerging go-to-guy - Emmanuel Sanders (illness). And the Bears can rush the QB with Mack (ankle) cleared and Hicks at his best. Technically, Bears 8-4 ATS off a Su loss; moreover, 5-0 SU on a short week. I'm going to look for a different outcome from last year's 36-25 embarrassing loss. |
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11-01-20 | Steelers +4 v. Ravens | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Steelers/Ravens 1:00: Not sold on the Ravens this year. Their run game remains strong but pass game stagnant at 178 YPG (31st in NFL). And when they needed to step up against the NFL elite, they laid a big egg. Their defense was horrendous vs KC with many fundamental flaws while offensively Lamar Jackson was way out of rhythm; moreover, they allowed Philadelphia to come back and test them down the stretch a few weeks back. Today, they face the #1 defense in the NFL with few flaws. Steelers allowing just 68.8 YPG on the ground and have a ball hawking secondary. Moreover, they've got a defensive line that is athletic and deep. Ravens are well rested but have a disturbing trend. Baltimore is 3-17 ATS as a favorite off a non-division game vs a greater than .500 division opponent. Steelers got swept in this series without Big Ben last year. Now that Roethlisberger is healthy and establishing rhythm with his wealth of weaponry, Steelers should keep it rolling. |
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11-01-20 | Raiders +2 v. Browns | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Raiders/Browns 1:00: Browns feeling really good off another win to sit at 5-2 SU in standings; however, I'm not that excited knowing they've accumulated 4 of those 5 wins vs losing teams. And the winning team that they beat - Indy - has only one win over a winning team - Chicago. Raiders have a couple quality wins - KC and New Orleans. Sure, TB was my Top Play last week against them but on account of not having their entire offensive line to practice for a week; despite that, the Raiders hung with TB up until the Bucs blew it open midway through 4th quarter. Today, Raiders looking in pretty good shape. Carr has plenty of weapons - TE Waller, WR Ruggs, WR Agholor, WR Renfrow, RB Jacobs - to work a yielding Browns' defense. And sure, Mayfield is coming off a huge game, but won't have OBJ or TE Hooper (77 targets) to go to today. Need the Raiders' defenseless defense to step it up today and we'll bet on it. Take the points. |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Colts/Lions 1:00: Colts should be healthy and well rested; after all, they're coming off a bye and will have their All Pro LB Darius Leonard back to solidify their #2 ranked defense. Colts are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite off a bye week. Detroit is feeling good off a last minute win against Atlanta to go on a 2-0 run. We'll look for that run to end here. HC Patricia has yet to win 3 straight games as the head man at Detroit. Sure, Stafford is connecting well with Golladay and TE Hockenson but Indianapolis has a ball hawking secondary and a pretty effective pass rush with Justin Houston leading the way. Not crazy about the Detroit defense which is banged up in the secondary (CB Trufant - hamstring) and allows 132 YPG on the ground. Indy is overdue to get RB Jonathon Taylor rolling. Indy the call. |
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10-31-20 | LSU v. Auburn +2.5 | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
LSU/Auburn 3:30: This series has been highly competitive over the last 4 years. And over the last 3 years, the average margin of victory was just 2.7 points. Both teams coming off wins after sluggish outings: LSU worked a South Carolina team coming off a big win while Auburn narrowly beat Ole Miss on an explosive play down the stretch. Auburn gave last year's National Championship team a hard time and should deliver today. Not a fan of Bo Nix but he did bounce back well after a disastrous outing vs South Carolina. He went 23 of 30 for 238 yards and should get some nice looks against an LSU defense that's given up 344 YPG through the air! On the other hand, the Auburn defense is getting gutted on the ground and should address that. LSU will surely try to get the run game going. And LSU's QB Brennan is listed as doubtful so freshman TJ Finley will get his second start. He looked pretty good last week but going to fade him and Orgeron on the road here. Auburn is 4-1 ATS at home in this series and should get sweet revenge. |
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10-31-20 | Michigan State v. Michigan -21 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Michigan Noon: Michigan State's former HC Dantonio had success against his instate rival; however, now that Mel Tucker is now at the helm, it will be a monumental task to be competitive against the Wolverines at this stage. Tucker was left with a limited cupboard to work with and a mediocre recruiting class; moreover, big losses defensively at linebacker, secondary and entire defensive line. And the Spartans' offense, which was pathetic last year, broke in a new QB last week - Rocky Lombardi - who threw for 319 yards, but 7 turnovers, including losing a fumble didn't cut it. On the other hand, Michigan looked good last week with new QB Joe Milton in their route of Minnesota. Wolves, which is 5-0 ATS as a favorite, blasted Michigan State by a combined 65-17 over their last 2 meetings. We'll look for another blowout as Harbaugh looks to establish control of Michigan in recruiting. |
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10-31-20 | Memphis v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis/Cincinnati Noon: Double revenge game for the Bearcats. They come into this one 4-0 ranked #7 and look to knock off a Memphis team that beat them not only in their regular season finale but two weeks later in the AAC Championship. This year's Bearcats bring a solid core group back with good depth from a good recruiting class. They've got a duel threat QB in Desmond Ridder with a solid supporting cast. They should be able to move the ball well vs a Memphis' defense that allows a whopping 568 YPG! Sure, the Tigers can move the football with the #6 ranked offense in the nation; however, Cincinnati is well disciplined defensively and opportunistic with nine forced turnovers. Cincinnati has covered 9 of the last 11 in this series and should finally get a solid SU win with emphasis. Lay the TD. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers -2 | 25-17 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Atlanta/Carolina 8:20: Atlanta has controlled this series to the tune of 8-2 ATS run; however, changing of the guard could ensue. Matt Rhule is doing a great job in turning around the Panthers franchise and without marquee players. They've covered 4 of the last 5 and that was without their best player - McCaffrey - who's been out since week 2. Tonight, good chance McCaffrey (ankle) will play. Bridgewater, not at elite status but doing a solid job in directing the offense. And Carolina needs more of a pass rush to help their secondary out. As for Atlanta, they're still finding ways to lose as exhibited last week vs Detroit. Falcons' defense ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of total yards. Can't depend on them to make critical stops. Inclement weather a possibility tonight and that favors the home team. Falcons 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on grass fields. Edge to Carolina as they sweep season series. |
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10-26-20 | Bears +6 v. Rams | 10-24 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
Bears/Rams 8:15: Bears in good hands under Nagy. Foles has been a steady QB and he's gotten into rhythm with a good group of receivers. Allen Robinson is a top tier receiver. And Mooney, Miller and TE Graham are good supporting options. Even RB Montgomery is showing good versatility. Rams' defense appears good according to the stats; however, not what they were under former DC Wade Phillips. Rams have only beaten 3 lightweights - Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington - all from the lowly NFC East. Sure, Rams have the offense back up to speed this year but face a pretty good Chicago defense. Bears have an underrated secondary that limits explosive plays. And Rams' vertical threat - Woods is nursing a groin injury while TE Higbee has a banged up hand. Bears not quite ready for prime time but 4-0 ATS last 4 Monday tilts. Moreover, they're a sweet 6-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent off SU loss as a favorite. We'll look for Bears to go for sweet revenge from last year's 17-7 loss. |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Bucs/Raiders 4:05: Tough spot for the Raiders after huge win at KC back on the 11th. They're entire offensive line sent home last week but should be good to go Sunday pending negative tests. Nevertheless, no practice time for them as newly activated offensive line subbed for them the entire week after Trent Brown tested positive for Covid 19. TB defense, #1 in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed, was on the attack of Aaron Rodgers last week and should make life uncomfortable for Derek Carr on Sunday. Offensively, Bucs established a nice rhythm last week and good to see Gronkowski getting targets now. Bad news for a 27th ranked Raiders' scoring defense which won't have S Jonathon Abram (Covid 19 protocol). Raiders have not had success at home vs the NFC South at 1-7 ATS; moreover, Gruden a money burning 1-10 ATS vs greater than .500 opponent off double-digit ATS win & scored more than 35 points. TB the call. |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Panthers/Saints 1:00: We get great value with a Panthers' team that doesn't have big name players but playing solid football under first year HC Rhule. Rhule swept away Joe Brady from LSU and it's paying dividends. Former Saints' QB Teddy Bridgewater playing well and reserve RB Mike Davis doing well in place of dynamic McCaffrey. Saints' defense has a tendency to bring out the best in opposing QBs allowing an average of 108 QB rating. Offensively, Saints' Brees still won't have his top receiver - Michael Thomas (hamstring), but also emerging go-to receiver Sanders (illness) out! Panthers 3-0 ATS in last 3 trips to Superdome. Take Carolina and the TD. |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Packers/Texans 1:00: At first glance at this line, seems like the Packers would be a clear lock; however, they're dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Will have to shuffle their offensive line a bit, RB Aaron Jones (calf) iffy, and defensive secondary injuries. Sure, Texans' QB Watson will be a load to handle. Fortunately, Houston has the 31st rush offense in the NFL and that puts lots of pressure on Watson to make plays. And defensively, the Texans are not good. They're 32nd against the run allowing 175.5 YPG and that should allow solid reserve RB Jamaal Williams to get going; consequently, Aaron Rodgers should atone for last week's sluggish outing; after all, Packers are 5-0 ATS off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS after allowing 30+. As for Houston, 0-8 ATS as a dog of 3 points or more vs a .600 or greater team off a SU loss. Packers the call. |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +2 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Steelers/Titans 1:00: Two undefeated AFC powerhouses go head to head. We'll grab the points with Pittsburgh here. They boast the #2 defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. They also present the #2 run stop unit in the NFL. Of course, stopping Derrick Henry the entire game is a monumental task. Yet Pittsburgh is built for this. Yes, they will be without ILB Devin Bush (knee), who was having a solid year; however, reserve Spillane came in last week and the Steelers defense didn't miss a beat. Tennessee's offense is loaded with weaponry but LT Lewan is out and it will be tough for reserve LT Sambrailo to keep DE Bud Dupree from disruptive behavior on Tannehill. On the other hand, Tennessee's defense is yielding and face a healthy Roethlisberger with a wealth of weaponry including emerging superstar and matchup nightmare Claypool. Steelers 4-0 ATS after scoring 30+ and we'll grab them here. |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
10-24-20 | Iowa State +3 v. Oklahoma State | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Oklahoma State 3:30: Iowa State dangerous on the road with revenge vs an opponent with rest at 8-0 ATS. They've covered 4 of the last 5 in this series and we won't sleep on them here. |
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10-24-20 | Tulane +21 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Tulane/UCF 2:00: UCF has its share of defensive woes giving up a whopping 518 YPG. Tulane has one of the top 3 run games in the nation pounding out 229 YPG and can work the soft UCF defensive core to keep the explosive #1 offense off the field. Even so, Tulane is soft in coverage but has two menacing defensive ends that can bring heat. Tulane stayed in this game last year for a 31-34 cover as an 8 point dog. HC Fritz is a dangerous revenge coach and 8-0 ATS as a road dog of 17 or more points off back-to-back SU losses. Tulane the call. |
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10-24-20 | Nebraska +27.5 v. Ohio State | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Ohio State Noon: Nebraska not as bad as the 48-7 demolition at home vs OSU indicated last season. Nebraska had nearly a whole year to stew over that defeat. And Scott Frost has his top 3 rushers returning, including versatile QB Adrian Martinez; moreover, all 5 offensive linemen return. Defensively, the Cornhuskers still have question marks - mostly defensive line with decent linebackers and some playmakers in the secondary. Frost did recruit well for the 3-4 scheme the last few years including a Top 10 class this year and that will help with quality depth. As for OSU, they had 10 players go to the NFL from last year's team; however, QB Justin Fields will be around to give trouble. Going to look for a little rust early vs a vengeful Nebraska team that should resemble the 2018 - 31-36 loss but cover (+17). Nebraska the call. |
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10-24-20 | Auburn -3.5 v. Ole Miss | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Auburn/Ole Miss Noon: Got to steer clear of a Ole Miss defense allowing a whopping 580 YPG. And Covid 19 has ravaged their defensive personnel more as we speak. We'll look for Bo Nix and company to get back their mojo here. Auburn 7-0 ATS as road favorites of more than 2 points vs an opponent off a SU loss. Auburn the call. |
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10-24-20 | Oklahoma v. TCU +7 | 33-14 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/TCU Noon: TCU's HC Patterson is in his twentieth year for the Horned Frogs. Every year following a losing year as been a winner for him; as a matter of fact, he's 35-7 and SU/27-13 when coming off a losing year. He's 2-1 ATS thus far following last year's losing campaign. And considering last year's 4 point loss to OU as an 18 point dog, Patterson should have his club fired up here. He's 7-3 ATS as a home dog and 9-0 ATS w/ rest vs less than .600 opponent. Defensively, TCU will keep you in the game. They have their work cut out for them vs the explosive OU offense but can still grind it out offensively. OU still hasn't found a defense. OU 0-6 ATS off 40+ points. |
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10-23-20 | Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | 7-45 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Illinois/Wisconsin 8:00: Illinois insulted being a nearly 3 TD dog to a team they upset last year. Illinois has a good point. The Fighting Illini bring back nearly their entire offense including QB Brandon Peters equipped with some pretty good skill weaponry and, perhaps, the strength - offensive line. Defensively, Illinois forced 28 turnovers last year and bring back a solid core of that group with a few more solid additions. They face a Wisconsin team that will be without their QB Jack Coan (foot). Paul Chryst will go with redshirt freshman Graham Mertz who saw action vs a pair of MAC teams in garbage time. Sure, Wisconsin won't have Jonathan Taylor running rampant through the secondary but will surely reload with a solid cast of skill and linemen. And defensively, little, if any falloff from their stellar defense. Nevertheless, without the noisy Camp Randall Stadium crowd, Illinois can hang around. They're riding a 6-1 ATS conference run, 5-1 as a dog and 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Grab the points. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -5.5 | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 23 m | Show | |
Giants/Eagles 8:20: This line dropped to -4 after TE Ertz and RB Sanders ruled out. Eagles do, however, get WR DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and OT Lane Johnson (ankle) back. And Sanders' replacement - RB Boston Scott - has had two huge games vs the Giants! Moreover, Eagles' HC Pederson 5-0 ATS on Thursday nights including 2-0 vs the Giants. Eagles have beaten NY 7 straight times SU and they're hungry to get back in the win column after a highly competitive loss vs Baltimore on Sunday; meanwhile, the Giants got their first win over struggling Washington. Look for Pederson to have his men charged up and prepared. Eagles 7-0 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals +1 v. Cowboys | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Cowboys 8:15: Can't take the Cowboys now with that dreadful defense that allows 32.6 PPG. Kyler Murray has the weaponry (Hopkins, Fitzgerald, Drake, Kirk) to light up the Cowboys secondary. On the other hand, Cardinals in a bit of a bind defensively too with their All Pro LB Chandler Jones (biceps) out. But they do get safeties Banjo and Thompson back. And Buddha Baker and Patrick Peterson still have big play ability. Dalton still a dangerous QB but a drop off from Prescott. We'll grab the Cardinals here. |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Bills 5:00: Chiefs had a few more days rest to stew over loss to Las Vegas. And they're a bit more healthy than Buffalo, which is coming off a demoralizing loss Tuesday to Tennessee. KC's defense has bookends Chris Jones and Frank Clark healthy and that spells a bit more trouble for Bills' QB Josh Allen whose working behind a beat up offensive line. And defensively, Bills not what they were the last few years under McDermott. Mahomes has a wealth of riches to go to in the skill department despite Sammy Watkins being out. And you can add Mecole Hardman to the list. RB Bell will factor in later in season too. Defensively, Chiefs are very yielding too but make big plays (Mathieu) in critical moments. KC 5-0 ATS following Raiders game. And they're 7-0 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points off a division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Moreover, they're 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points. We'll look for KC to clean it up in Buffalo. |
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10-18-20 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | 40-23 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Falcons/Vikings 1:00: Vikings getting better each week as their 3-0 ATS mark indicates. They have some injuries, including Delvin Cook; however, Mattison looked solid in his relief last week with 112 yards on 20 carries. Falcons a sad sack and DC Raheem Morris not the answer. Minnesota 12-0 ATS at home off SU loss and a sizzling 10-4 ATS as a home favorite vs non division opponents under Zimmer. We'll lay the points. |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles +10 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Ravens/Eagles 1:00: To quote Lou Holtz, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." Such the case with these two teams today. Ravens coming off a blowout win and feeling really good. Actually, Bengals played horribly and routinely shot themselves in the foot offensively but held their own defensively considering the poor field position left in. Lamar Jackson (knee) took some more practice time off this week and the Ravens, which had 3 of their last 4 wins against lightweights with a combined 3 wins among them, will be overconfident going into Philadelphia. Eagles' HC Pederson is a quality coach in his 5th year, including a Super Bowl ring. Wentz is starting to find some new targets - Fulgham, Ward, Hightower to compliment TE Ertz and RB Sanders. And the offensive line is getting healthier. Defensively, Eagles need to clean up mistakes in the secondary and believe they will here. Technically, Pederson a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog vs non-division opponents off a home game. And 7-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points after allowing more than 35 points. Eagles the call. |
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10-18-20 | Broncos +9.5 v. Patriots | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Broncos/Patriots 1:00: Broncos on the cusp of being a respectable team. If you look back, they were in control of two games late in 4th quarter (Tennessee and Pittsburgh) yet inexperience and poor decision making cost them in the final minute. More level headed down the stretch and they're 3-1 SU going in to this one. Last year, similar mistakes down the stretch cost Fangio. Nevertheless, he's been a solid cover coach and it holds up this year at 3-1 ATS. Broncos haven't played since October 1st. NE, due to Covid 19 cases, off since October 5th. Patriots will be without RB Michel, starting RG Mason and starting DT Cowart. Broncos should have QB Drew Lock ready to go and RB Lindsay will get the nod in place of Gordon (DUI). Broncos' Lock has some solid weapons in Jeudy and Patrick. Extended rest for Denver helped a banged up defense get healthy and Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in football. Broncos are 5-2 ATS as a road dog on extended rest while the Patriots are a money burning 1-8 ATS on extended rest as home chalk. Broncos the call. |
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10-18-20 | Broncos v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Broncos/Patriots 1:00: Two brilliant defensive minds - Fangio and Belichick battle it out. Extended rest should aid the defenses in this one. NE hasn't been an explosive stretch the field team this season as Cam Newton has more possession receivers than vertical threats. Well disciplined Broncos' defense limits explosive plays. On the other hand, Broncos do have Jerry Jeudy who can separate from the best defensive backs but NE secondary well disciplined as well. Broncos 0-12 O/U when O/U line 45 or greater. "Under" it is. |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Texans/Titans 1:00: Despite the limited time of prep for Tennessee (off Tuesday game) we'll roll with Tennessee. Prior to Tuesday, they had extended rest and able to come out firing on all cylinders. This week they get another weapon back for Tannehill. Adam Humphries will play. Texans, meanwhile, got a win over a poor Jacksonville team but lost leading tackler Mckinney (shoulder). That's bad news for a Texans' run stop unit that's 31st against the run allowing 160 YPG. And Derrick Henry won't be forgiving late in the game. Technically, Texans were horrible under O'Brien off wins and I'm confidant this will carry over with Crennel. We'll roll with the Titans. |
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10-17-20 | Georgia +5 v. Alabama | 24-41 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Alabama defense under Golding giving up 473 YPG! Players out of position, missed tackles, lack of QB pressures/sacks, yielding in both run and pass. Saban tried to straighten it out this week but relegated to Zoom conferences because of catching the virus. After testing negative twice, Saban is cleared to be back on the field but don't expect the defensive flaws to disappear overnight. Sure Georgia is an average offense by NCAA standards this season; however, QB Stetson Bennett is hitting 63% of his passes with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. The running game is not explosive but do bang out 175 rush yards a game. And I'm well aware of the explosiveness of the Alabama offense. They're once again rich in talent across the board and QB Mac Jones is solid; however, Georgia has the best defense I've seen in years assembled under HC Smart. Very difficult to run on the Bulldogs this year. Their defensive line is deep and they can bring the heat. And they have a ball hawking secondary. Sure Saban is 21-0 vs former coaches but Smart (0-2) has been competitive in losses. We'll look for the Bulldogs to make a game of it. |
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10-17-20 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Pittsburgh/Miami Fla Noon: We won't underestimate Narduzzi as a coach. He's pulled some amazing upsets in his head coaching career. He's currently coming off two straight losses, each by 1 point. He's got another quality defense that can get after the passer with bookends Jones and Weaver. The Panthers' secondary will need to tighten up after allowing too many yards through the air the last few weeks; however, Miami Fla, which does have a very good QB King, but his receivers aren't the quality of NC State's or BC's. Pitt does a good job of stopping the run (52 YPG) and they're 3rd in the nation in sacks and 4th in TFLs. Offensively, QB Pickett (ankle) is questionable and the line is dictating he will not play. Fortunately, Arizona State transfer - Joey Yellen is a capable backup to keep this competitive. Pitt is 10-4 ATS off a SU loss and the road team in this series is 7-3 ATS. Revenge for Pitt from last year's 16-12 defeat. |
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10-17-20 | Kansas v. West Virginia -22 | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Kansas/West Virginia Noon: We won't be afraid of laying wood in this matchup. Kansas is very low in offensive production and gives up way too many points defensively. And their top RB Williams (32 yards on 14 carries last week) hobbled off the field late vs Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks face another formidable defense with West Virginia. They rank 8th in total defense and should pitch a shutout here. On the other hand, WV QB Doege has a quality supporting cast and should guide them in the end zone frequently. Kansas' defense allows 41 PPG. Les Miles (Covid 19) won't be on the sidelines and probably glad he won't. WV the call. |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -27 v. Georgia Tech | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Clemson/Georgia Tech Noon: Georgia Tech feeling good off a huge win at home vs L'ville as a 4' point dog. But hold everything. The Engineers have recently failed to capitalize following wins as indicated by their 0-6 ATS mark off a SU win; moreover, they're 0-5 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. Clemson, on the other hand, 11-0 ATS vs a team under .666 off a SU dog win. GT not ready to step up to this kind of level yet. Clemson the call. |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | 43-26 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
BYU/Houston 9:30: So far, BYU's Zack Wilson looks like a Heisman Trophy candidate with 14 Total TDs, 1,241 yards passing and an astounding 81.2% completion percentage. However, this should be a good test for him and BYU. Houston's defense is much improved under DC Cauthen. They have athletes and kept the Cougars in the game last week vs Tulane after Houston's offense had 5 turnovers. We'll look for Dana Holgorsen's offense to shake off the rust this week. Houston has weapons and a solid offensive line to compete with the BYU beasts up front. We'll take the points. |
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10-16-20 | SMU -6 v. Tulane | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
SMU/Tulane 6:00: SMU missing top receiver Reggie Robertson Jr. (knee) who was an absolute nightmare for defensive backs the first quarter of the season. However, QB Shane Buechele still has a good assortment of weapons to go to. Tyler Page, Danny Gray, TE Granson, and RB Bentley IV as a receiver, can work a Tulane secondary that's given up explosive plays by the bunch load this season; as a matter of fact, the Green Wave defense has given up 13 completions of 25+ through 4 games. Tulane defense not a great pass rushing team could be in for a long night despite the loss of Robertson Jr. And concerns a plenty after letting flood gates open vs Navy and Houston in the second halves. Tulane not an explosive offense and lots of uncertainty still at QB. Sonny Dykes has his offense cooking and don't think the Green Wave can trade points effectively. SMU 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and 5-1 ATS at Tulane. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +3.5 v. Arkansas State | 52-59 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Arkansas State 7:30: Georgia State blew out Arkansas State last year 52-38 and I'm taking the points again. The Red Wolves still have defensive breakdowns against the run and pass. Georgia State can run the rock (470 yards over 2 games) and versatile QB Cornelious Brown is capable of upping his completion percentage tonight. Sure, Arkansas State has a prolific passer in Logan Bonner; however, like how the Panthers got after another prolific passer - Holton Ahlers. Georgia State has been well rested (off since October 3rd). The Panthers are 6-1 ATS off SU win of 14+ points. Arkansas State wants revenge but 0-5 w/ revenge vs opponent off SU dog win. Georgia State the call. |
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10-13-20 | Bills -3 v. Titans | 16-42 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Bills/Titans 7:00: Under normal circumstances (without Covid 19), a case can surely be built for Tennessee to avenge their loss from a year ago on this field; however, Titans have been out of action since the 27th and have had very little on field practice time while missing lots of players. Some of Tannehill's key weapons ( Humphries) are out and he'll have to go with the next man up - Westbrook-Ikhine, Kalif Raymond- who rarely see the field; therefore, chemistry is a concern in the passing game. Sure, there is Derrick Henry; however, offensive line underachieving this year as Henry is being hit after 1.3 yards gained; moreover, Tannehill has taken way too many pressures and hits although he has been fortunate to avoid sacks. Bills' defense not what it was the last few years but must consider the offense is now explosive (#3 in NFL). Bills are relatively healthy and rolling. Devin Singletary is a highly underrated back that allows Josh Allen to do his thing. Diggs, Beasley, Brown (questionable) are in great rhythm with Allen. Titans' underachieving defense allowing 30 points in back to back weeks not a good sign considering limited practice time to make adjustments. We'll look for Buffalo to keep it rolling. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +7 v. Saints | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Chargers/Saints 8:15: Chargers do their best work on the road under Anthony Lynn where they're now 17-8 ATS. Chargers need to cut down on mistakes such as fumbles and interceptions at inopportune times. RB Joshua Kelley and QB Herbert need to polish their game and I believe they'll do well here. New Orleans defense giving up about 31 points per game. Saints' secondary still not fully healthy and Herbert has the arm and the weaponry (WR Allen) to work it. Saints have the worst Red Zone defense in the NFL at 82.4% conversion. On the other hand, Drew Brees' favorite target Michael Thomas still out. Chargers have a solid secondary and a great pass rush when Bosa (questionable) is healthy. Saints 4-10 ATS as home chalk and 2-6 ATS on MNF. Chargers keep it tight. |