Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-19 | Vikings -1 v. Chargers | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
331 Minnesota at LA Chargers The Vikings have won more games on the road than the Chargers have at home this year. Many feel Minnesota will be a no show today because of the importance of the game next week against Green Bay. But we’ve yet to see the Vikings have a no show game under this coaching staff. The fans will be 75% Minnesota fans. The Chargers have already lost to Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Kansas City on this field. The only quality home win was against Green Bay. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers -4 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
310 Chicago at Green Bay The Bears are getting a great deal of credit for winning three straight games. But those contests were against the struggling Giants, Lions and Cowboys. The Green Bay defense held the Bears to 3 points in the first meeting, and have held all but two opponents under 26 points this season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
314 Houston at Tennessee Looking at average scores this season Houston is even while the Titans are +4. When looking at pure game scores the Titans are a half point better, and that’s with Marriota behind center for half the games. The Tennessee defense has permitted over 23 points just twice all season. All the hype has been unfounded on the Texans here. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-08-19 | Steelers v. Cardinals +1 | 23-17 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
154 Pittsburgh at Arizona With the win over Cleveland last week the Steelers have set themselves up as a probable wild card. Having just played three straight divisional games, with three AFC contests to end the season, this is by far the least important game remaining for Pittsburgh. The Steelers still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record on the road. In fact, the win over the Rams at home 17-12 is the only victory over a team with a current winning mark. Arizona is off a blowout loss to the Rams, and have dropped five straight heading into this contest. But the Cards have back to back possible wins with the Browns playing here next week. The Steelers have been getting quite lucky this year with a +11 turnover margin, as well as a 5-3 record in one score games. This is the week Pittsburgh falters. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
110 Baylor & Oklahoma Despite the close 34-31 final score Oklahoma outgained Baylor by 218 yards in the previous meeting. Baylor dominated the first half while the Sooners crushed in the second half. The 525 total yards were a season high against this Baylor stop unit. Oklahoma has permitted just 335, 204 and 307 yards the past three weeks, as the defense is getting better as the season goes along. One thing to point out is Baylor has a +17 combined turnover margin edge in this matchup. The Bears have been living off turnovers all season, while Oklahoma is struggling taking care of the football. Unless Baylor wins this turnover battle by more than one, we see it very unlikely Baylor can keep this one close enough to stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3 | Top | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
466 NY Jets at Cincinnati From a game grade standpoint the Bengals should be very slight favorites here. The Jets are feeling fat and happy with a three game winning streak and a blowout of the Oakland Raiders. But with winless Cincinnati and the Dolphins on deck, excuse us if we don’t trust New York here. Cincinnati has been competitive the past two weeks with losses by 6 and 7 points. With the remaining schedule the best chance for a win after today will be at Miami in week 16. Cincinnati is 0-6 on the season in games decided by one possession. These teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
367 Ohio State at Michigan Surprised by the money coming in on the host. Just a week ago the look ahead number in this contest was 13 1/2. Ohio State beat Penn State by 11 points and 190 yards despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Now the line is about five points shorter. Neither team will have much success running the football, as both allow less than 3 yards per carry. Which brings us to the passing game where the Buckeyes have a huge edge. Fields has a 33 to 1 td to int ratio and a 190.3 passer rating. Patterson is 21 to 5 with a 149.6 passer rating. From an average game score rating Ohio State is 123.8 and Michigan is 106.4. Only once all season have the Wolverines reached the average Buckeye game score, and that was in the 45-14 victory over Notre Dame. In order to be competitive here the Wolverines would likely have to play its best game of the season, against a program that has dominated them. We don’t see that happening as we expect Ohio State to win going away. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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11-29-19 | Texas Tech +9 v. Texas | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
321 Texas Tech at Texas Final game of the season for the Red Raiders who won’t be going bowling. Despite losing five of its six games down the stretch, Texas Tech has scored the same amount of points as it allowed. The losses came by margins of 3, 2, 3, 10 and 3 points. The Red Raiders on the season are 0-4 in one score games. This is a one-sided rivalry and Texas Tech will treat this like its bowl game. The Longhorns have already qualified for a bowl with six wins. But this has to be looked at as a disappointing season in Austin. A win over Texas Tech won’t change that. Hard to see this team getting up for this contest after being non-competitive last week against Baylor. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
272 Green Bay at San Francisco This number is really cheap based on the season to date outputs of both these squads. Looking at average game scores the Packers are 84.4 while the 49ers are 88.4. That would make San Francisco a significant favorite on a neutral. Add in home field advantage and we clearly see this line should be much closer to a 6. This is the third road game in four contests for the Packers, but Green Bay was off a bye week. San Francisco on the other hand will be at home for the third straight week. The next two games for the Niners are really tough with road games at Baltimore and New Orleans. While this is not a must win game for the host, it’s about as important as a game could be considering the remainder of the San Francisco schedule. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 39-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
122 Michigan at Indiana The Wolverines have finally put it all together and are playing like many thought this team would before the season. Winning 6 of 7 including a blow out victory over Notre Dame. But this is a terrible sandwich spot after knocking off Michigan State and having Ohio State on deck. Michigan has owned Indiana in football for decades, as this sets up as a huge letdown situation. Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan, but the last four years have been very competitive. The Hoosiers have cashed each of those games by a combined 38 1/2 points. This is the best Indiana football team in a really long time. It’s the first team that is going to finish with a winning record since 2007. The Hoosiers are undefeated at home with the only losses on the road at Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State. This one goes down to the wire. PLAY INDIANA |
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11-23-19 | Ball State -3 v. Kent State | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 43 m | Show | |
117 Ball State at Kent State The Cardinals need to win out to reach a 6-6 record. This team hasn’t had a non-losing season since 2013. It hosts Miami Ohio next week to end the season, so it is a realistic goal for these seniors. Despite dropping three straight games our numbers show Ball State to be the clear favorite here. Kent is off an upset victory over Buffalo in a game it didn’t deserve. The Golden Flashes lost the yardage battle by 95 and came up short in first downs by 4. Buffalo ran for 1.8 ypc better than Kent State. Kent has lost the yardage battle in four straight games, Ball State on the other hand has out yarded its opponent in 3 of its past 5 games. The hungry team gets the spread cover here, and that’s the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
470 New England at Philadelphia Many will want to back the Patriots off a loss followed by a bye week. Belichick has been solid off losses in his career, but this isn’t the same New England team that we have seen in the past. Besides the last three seasons the Pats are 0-3 ATS off the bye week, including a 1-2 SU record. The Pats have a solid lead in the division and play the next two games against non-conference foes. Those are the lowest priority games on the schedule. The Pats are permitting 4.7 ypc on the season, against a schedule that is extremely weak. Only Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Baltimore have winning records. New England is +17 turnovers on the year, the major reason why this team has a gaudy record. Philadelphia is getting healthier, and with the divisional race with the Cowboys, this game is much more important for the host. The Eagles should be able to run all over this Pats defense. And coming off a bye we know Philadelphia has had this game circled. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-19 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +6 | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show | |
322 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech Two teams playing much better ball as of late. The Hokies have won 4 of 5 with the only loss coming at Notre Dame. But over the past six contests the team has lost the combined yardage battle by 253, and the first down battle by 21. Turnovers have been a major key to winning with a +2 margin. Tech has also just one road victory on the season, and in that win the Hokies were outgained by 226 yards. Georgia Tech has played a 30 spot tougher schedule. While the team is just 2-7 on the season, it’s been very competitive in the first year of a new coach and system. With the Yellow Jackets playing its last three games at home, we look for Georgia Tech to make solid strides to end the season. An outright victory here is not out of the question. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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11-16-19 | Texas v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -112 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
378 Texas at Iowa State Triple revenge game for the Cyclones who took Oklahoma to the wire last week in a confidence building loss. With only Kansas on deck we look for this Iowa State team to win going away. This club has produced game scores of 100 or higher in 7 of its last 8 games. Much more impressive than its 5-4 record on the season. After three of four weeks on the road it will be nice to get back home here. As opposed to Iowa State, Texas has produced a game score of 100+ just once the past six games. That was last week hosting Kansas State. With a 6-3 record many would assume this line to be too high, but we firmly disagree. Texas has not been impressive this season as we expected, but have been very fortunate to fall on the right side of coin flip games. The Longhorns are 3-0 in games decided by six points or less. Iowa State on the other hand is 1-3 in games of six points or less. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-16-19 | Indiana v. Penn State -14.5 | 27-34 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 33 m | Show | |
326 Indiana at Penn State The line on this game looks completely reasonable if you just look at the year to date stats. But a closer look at the opposition shows the Nittany Lions to have played a whopping 73 spot tougher schedule. The Hoosiers played one good team on the season, a 51-10 loss to Ohio State. Penn State has faced the likes of Pittsburgh, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. While this is a sandwich game for the host, off Minnesota and with Ohio State on deck. Indiana just became the final team from a power five conference to make the Top 25. And if you’ve followed teams getting into the Top 25 this year, you know they have faltered badly the following week. Penn State is the better coached and more talented squad, off a loss and playing at home. This line is cheap. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan v. Ohio -1.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
304 Western Michigan at Ohio U The Broncos have really struggled on the road this year. Dropping all four road games by a combined score of 168-101. All four of those road teams have been disappointments this year. Michigan State, Syracuse, Toledo and Eastern Michigan have all underperformed. Ohio University outgained Miami Ohio last Wednesday, but lost because of a -3 turnover differential. The Ohio running game has bested 5 yards per carry in each of its last four games, as the offense has really played well as of late. In what we expect to be a high scoring contest, we will side with the host with lowly Bowling Green and Akron remaining on the schedule. A win here and the Bobcats likely finish the season with a winning record for the fifth straight season. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-10-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
253 Buffalo at Cleveland The Buffalo Bills have played one game away from home in the past seven weeks, a road game at Tennessee. The Bills have lowly Miami on deck, a team coming off its first and possibly only win of the season. Most teams rise up after a week of off field controversy, but not the Browns. This team is so dysfunctional it has raised the stakes to a whole new level. We want no part of this club right now, and are surprised the team has been made the favorite here. To make matters worse the Browns have a short week ahead before clashing with hated rival Pittsburgh on Thursday. Wrong team favored in this one. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-09-19 | San Jose State +8 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
199 San Jose State at Hawaii The Spartan passing game has produced 400 or more yards in 3 of its last 5 games. Only the defense of San Diego State held the Spartans to less than 310 yards during this streak. Hawaii hasn’t faced many good passing attacks this season. And the Warriors have had a very hard time with turnovers, with a -12 margin on the year. San Diego State is at +12 on the season, and once again likely to win the turnover battle here. Give us a team likely to win turnovers, that is a live dog in the passing game, and we are catching more than a touchdown. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-09-19 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +3 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
178 Georgia Southern at Troy The Eagles are coming in off a nationally televised upset victory at Appalachian State. A game in which it lost the yardage battle by 72 and had eight less first downs. Georgia Southern is fat and happy after winning its last four contests. This is the second straight road game for the Eagles. This is the only home game for the Trojans in a five game span. Unlike the Eagles, Troy has dropped 4 of its last 5 games, and is in danger of missing a bowl game for the first time in four seasons. The Troy seniors want to be this first team to make it bowling in all four years of its class. Because of the early line movement we are getting Troy as a home dog in what we projected to be a one point Trojan favorite. Too much value to not back the host here in what could be a season defining game. PLAY TROY |
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11-09-19 | Louisville +7 v. Miami-FL | 27-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
125 Louisville at Miami Love the job Scott Satterfield has done this year with the Cardinals. Louisville has won 5 of its last 7 games with the only losses coming against the two most talented teams in the league, Florida State and Clemson. The Cardinals average 4.9 yards per carry, so it has the ability to ice a game with a second half lead. The passing attack has been very efficient regardless of who may be behind center on a weekly basis. Miami has been a disappointment this year with a 5-4 record, and are off its biggest win of the season. A 27-10 rout of in state rival Florida State. Now fat and happy the Hurricanes are expected to win by margin. Keep in mind Miami has only exceeded 35 points once all season, with a high of 63 points against Bethune-Cookman. This offense isn’t built to lay this type of number. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
106 Miami at Ohio U The Redhawks broke a five game losing streak in this series with a two point home victory last year. Miami’s long suffering run game finally broke out last week against Kent State, but this squad still averages just 3.2 yards per carry on the season. The passing game is poor reaching 190 or more yards just twice all year. Ohio U suffered losses to Pitt, Marshall and Louisiana earlier in the season. But in retrospect those clubs have had really impressive years. Sitting at 4-4 is a disappointment for Bobcat fans, but the schedule turned out tougher than anticipated. Ohio has a diverse offense that averages 5.0 ypc and has the ability to throw the ball well. It’s only bad loss on the year was a 39-36 home defeat at the hands of Northern Illinois. We look for the Bobcats to dominate offensively as it gains revenge for a rare loss in this series. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 50 m | Show |
474 New England at Pittsburgh It’s clear how Bill Belichick wants to win with this team. Dominate defensively and play conservatively with the offense. That’s one reason why the Patriots are +17 in turnover margin. While many will look at how the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per carry defensively, keep in mind New England is happy to allow the opposition to run the ball because of having early leads. Baltimore runs the ball well but Lamar Jackson only has a 94.1 quarterback rating. New England hasn’t shown the passing attack to stretch the field against these Ravens. We look for a conservative game plan with this being a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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11-02-19 | Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
317 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Game score numbers show Pitt averaging 94.2 while Georgia Tech is at 77.8. Pitt has played a 12 spot tougher schedule than the Yellow Jackets. So by our numbers this line is extremely short. Yes, Georgia Tech has played better the past two games and are off an upset of Miami. And are off its second bye of the season, but it didn’t serve them well the first time in a 24-2 loss at Temple. Both teams played the Hurricanes in its last game. Pitt outgained them by 114 in a loss, while GT was outgained by 12 in a win. Yellow Jacket money is buying them this week at a peak price. That doesn’t work in the stock market and it doesn’t work in the betting markets. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-02-19 | UNLV +9 v. Colorado State | 17-37 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 44 m | Show | |
357 UNLV at Colorado State The Rebels have been a much better team since Kenyon Oblad took over behind center. His QB rating is 118.6 as opposed to Armani Rogers and his 94.4 rating. Under Rogers the team was a run only offense with just two touchdown passes, now the team is multi dimensional. The last three games the Rebels have combined to outgain the opposition by 38 yards, and had nine more first downs. Despite playing two of those three games on the road. The previous four games UNLV was outgained by 643 total yards and losing first downs by 13. Colorado State is off back to back wins for the first time this season, both on the road. The only home victory for the Rams was a win over FCS entrant Western Illinois. Despite victories the last two games Colorado State permitted 6.3 and 5.2 yards per carry to Fresno State and New Mexico. We look for a tightly contested higher scoring contest. PLAY UNLV |
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11-02-19 | Buffalo v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
336 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan The Bulls have struggled on the road this year with the only victory coming at Akron 21-0, what could be the worst team in the FBS. The last two games Buffalo has a +7 turnover margin but only outgained the opposition by a combined 89 yards. So while the final scores looked impressive, a great deal of luck was included. Buffalo is now 6-18-1 as a conference road underdog the last decade plus. Eastern Michigan has only played at home three times this season. This is the only home game for the Eagles in a four week span. Keep in mind the last time on this field the Eagles beat Western Michigan, the clear best team in the conference 34-27, outgaining the Broncos by 188 total yards. Chris Creighton is 22-15-2 ATS off a loss in his six years in Ypsilanti. We look for a solid victory for the host on Saturday. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +27.5 | 56-10 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
308 Navy at Connecticut This is just the third road game for Navy this season. It lost to Memphis by 12 and beat Tulsa by 28 despite only having a +100 yardage advantage. This is by far the least important game for the Midshipmen remaining on the schedule. After this contest they finish the season at Notre Dame, hosting undefeated SMU, at Houston in revenge and vs military rival Army. The last two games the opposition has had success running the football on Navy, and UConn has discovered a running game lately. Connecticut has looked like a much better team as of late outgaining both Houston and UMass the past two weeks. While many will dismiss the victory over the Minutemen, this team needed a confidence building victory. And the 24-17 loss to Houston looks much better after the Cougars took SMU to the wire last week. The Huskies have yet to lose a home game this season by the margin the line makers have posted here. We feel that streak continues as we buy low on the Huskies in an obvious look ahead situation for Navy. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills -2 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
262 Philadelphia at Buffalo The Eagles only wins have come against 1 win Washington, 1 win NY Jets and the Packers in a game it lost the yardage battle by 155. This team simply cannot protect the quarterback as Wentz just doesn’t have time to look downfield. That makes it easy on this Buffalo defense who can flood the box. Buffalo’s only loss on the season was to undefeated New England in a game it outgained the Pats by 151 yards. That looks really impressive now based on what the Pats have done this season. If Philadelphia can’t be competitive last week against Dallas, how can we expect this offense to move the ball on Buffalo. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
208 Notre Dame at Michigan Notre Dame at Michigan From a game score perspective the Irish are 4 points better than Michigan, but that includes the first three games of the season for the Wolverines. Since that time Michigan is 3 points better than the Irish as this team has stayed under the national radar. After starting the year poorly it looks as if most bettors have ignored the Michigan improvement. Brian Kelly is 8-4 ATS off a bye, so the Irish should be fully prepared here. But based on the Irish success we feel Notre Dame is getting too much credit in the betting markets. This is the only home game in a month span for the Wolverines, and its a rare night game. That in itself should ensure a crazy packed atmosphere for the host. Keep in mind Michigan is 28-4 SU under Harbaugh at home. With the line movement towards the visitor, we have great value on the Wolverines. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU +105 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 105 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
188 Texas at TCU The last five years TCU has outscored Texas by a combined margin of 169-64. The only victory for the Longhorns came last year in a 31-16 home victory. This is just the third true road game for Texas who survived at home last week over Kansas 50-48. This was a team we circled as overvalued coming into the season, and the results are starting to show. The only team the Longhorns have outgained by 70 or more yards this season was Rice. The last four games Texas has allowed 48, 34, 31 and 30 points, with just one of those games being played at a rival site. On the season Texas runs for 4.5 ypc and is allowing 4.6 ypc. TCU on the other hand controls the line of scrimmage with 5.3 yards per carry while allowing just 3.1 ypc. The Horned Frogs have outgained everyone on the schedule with the exception of a road game at Iowa State. The Kansas team that Texas just struggled with, TCU had a 466 yard advantage on. We look to back one of the best coaches in College Football here playing in revenge. PLAY TCU |
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10-26-19 | Nevada +13.5 v. Wyoming | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 19 m | Show | |
143 Nevada at Wyoming The Wolfpack have played the 61st ranked schedule in the country, while Wyoming has played the 114th. Nevada enters this game with a 4-3 record with losses to Oregon, Hawaii and Utah State. All three of those teams have something the Cowboys lack, a quarterback that could play at the next level. When facing a squad without that type of quarterback Nevada has outgained everyone but BIG10 entrant Purdue, a game the Wolf Pack beat 34-31. Wyoming has been outgained in all but one contest this season, a home game against UNLV. The Cowboys have been very fortunate in turnovers with a +7 margin. This team has no passing game to stretch the field, throwing for 124 yards or less in all but one game this season. In what looks to be a low scoring tight contest we will take the inflated number with Nevada. PLAY NEVADA |
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10-26-19 | Iowa v. Northwestern +10 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 26 m | Show | |
132 Iowa at Northwestern The Hawkeyes have lost to Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Failing to cover the number by a combined 42 1/2 points. The Iowa offense has only scored 41 combined points the past three weeks against Purdue, Penn State and Michigan. Iowa has a bye on deck then travels to Wisconsin, in its biggest remaining game of the season. In BIG10 play Iowa has only outgained one team all season by more than 62 yards. This isn’t a team that should be laying this type of number. Northwestern has played the toughest schedule in the nation per the Jeff Sagarin Ratings. The Wildcats have just one win on the season and are coming in off a 52-3 blowout loss to the best team in the nation, Ohio State. Northwestern has an extra day to prepare, and is a fresher team having had a bye before last week. This defense is legit despite the evidence of last week. It held Stanford to 17 on the road, UNLV to 14, Wisconsin to 24 on the road, and Nebraska to 13 in Lincoln. Iowa just doesn’t have the skill position players to break this game open. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
473 Philadelphia at Dallas Second of three straight road games for the Eagles off a loss at Minnesota. While Philadelphia slowly gets healthy the Cowboys are suffering several key injuries including two offensive linemen and its best receiver. Without a healthy Amari Cooper this passing game has been a disaster. Dallas started the season on fire as the new offensive coordinator looked like a huge upgrade. But this imaginative offense early on has become increasingly stagnant. What looked like impressive wins over the Giants, Redskins and Miami, now look much worse as those teams are among the worst in the league. The Cowboys are 18-30 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett. The Eagles have a huge coaching edge here and are playing with triple revenge in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
452 Arizona at New York Giants The Cardinals offense still hasn’t performed as expected by the new coaching staff. Despite getting a returning player in the defensive backfield we just don’t believe in this Arizona stop unit. New York has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. With several key players returning for the Giants this line surprises us. We were expecting something a couple points higher. Maybe playing Cincinnati and Atlanta, as opposed to Minnesota and New England has the betting markets fooled. We will take advantage of that and back the better team at home with extra rest. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
454 Houston at Indianapolis The Texans sure have a lot of new backers after edging the Chiefs last week. But we are not one of them. This is still a team that struggles to protect the quarterback. And Frank Reich and company have really been able to get to DeShaun Watson. This is the second straight road game for Houston, who have just one winning road season under Bill O’Brien. The Colts are on a bye week after beating the Chiefs themselves in a more impressive game just two weeks ago. Indy is 7-3 SU at home under Reich and matches up well with the Texans. Indy is 3-1 the past two seasons against Houston despite only having a combined 11-17 record against the rest of the league. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
390 Baylor at Oklahoma State We really liked the Baylor Bears coming into the season and they sure haven’t disappointed with a perfect 6-0 record. But the Bears are now playing for the fifth straight week, with four of those contests being decided by one score. The Bears have been on the right side of the coin flip games, which can’t go on forever. The last three weeks Baylor has beaten Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech by a combined 106 yards. It was a +4 turnover margin that turned those games toward the Bears. From a game score level the Cowboys are 1.2 points better than the Bears. We also show that Oklahoma State has played the much tougher schedule, a full six points per game tougher. The host is also coming off a bye which gives them a full week head start on preparations. This line has risen by a point at this writing, and it’s still showing plenty of value. As much as we like Baylor, the Bears will suffer its first loss of the season Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Duke v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 125 h 51 m | Show |
318 Duke at Virginia We went against the Wahoos last week with success as Virginia came up short against Miami Florida on Friday. But now we look to back Virginia with an extra day of prep. The Cavaliers have beaten Duke each of the last four seasons by margins of 14, 7, 14 and 8 points. And Virginia’s best defensive player was declared out for the season on a special teams play last week. That should be a rallying point for the host, as teams really come together the following game after losing a leader. These two teams have played exactly equal schedules based on our numbers. Yet Duke is only outgaining the opposition by 0.14 yards per play, while Virginia is up 0.72 yards per play. The current numbers assumes these two clubs are equal, but our numbers show Virginia to be the correct side. On a two game losing streak we expect Virginia to turn its season around here, as it continues to dominate the Blue Devils. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan v. Bowling Green +12 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
336 Central Michigan at Bowling Green Going off of game scores we can see the reason why the Chippewas as a double digit favorite here. Central is averaging a game score of 82.6 while the Falcons are at 67.0. But a closer look at the schedules played shows that Bowling Green has faced six point tougher FBS opponents. Despite a 52-0 loss at Notre Dame there were some signs of improvement. Last week the team had its best week of practice on the season, and it manifested itself on the field with an impressive 20-7 win over Toledo. We watched that game and the dominance was real, as we recommended a second half play on Bowling Green for our Twitter followers. It cashed easily, and we feel we have a nice edge on the market again here. A major key in sports betting success is staying ahead of the betting public when it comes to changes on the field. Bowling Green has been bad for so long nobody wants to back them. That is why we can find added value in catching the improvement at the early stages. This will be the eighth straight week Central Michigan has had a game, with Buffalo and Northern Illinois on deck. Bowling Green is much fresher after having a bye before the Notre Dame contest. The biggest jump for a team is after a bye week with a first year coach. This team has looked totally different since putting in more plays in that bye week. The team is extremely excited after that Toledo victory last week, and we expect the new and improved Falcons to surprise once again this week. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-18-19 | Marshall +5.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
309 Marshall at Florida Atlantic The sharp books are starting to show money on the road underdog and we agree. Florida Atlantic has lived off turnovers the last four games with a +8 margin. It so happened the Owls won each of those contests. But looking a bit deeper we see that Middle Tennessee last week had 95 more yards and five more first downs than the Owls. It took a +3 turnover edge to win that contest. When looking at Marshall the Thundering Herd have only turned the ball over eight times all season. Marshall runs the ball well at 5.5 yards per carry. The Owls have only slowed down Wagner and Charlotte on the ground this year. Facing closely equal schedules Marshall is +0.52 in yards per play, while Florida International is -0.77. With over a full yard advantage per play, and the ability to move the ball on the ground, we can’t pass up this road underdog. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
266 San Francisco at LA Rams All credit given to the Niners for beating the teams in front of them. But they have yet to face a quality quarterback. Tampa, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have problems behind center. And while we feel Jared Goff is a bit overrated, his home/road dichotomy can’t be forgotten. He has been much better in his career playing at home. The Niners are 4-0 and a win here really puts them in the drivers seat in this division. So this becomes a must win game for the Rams. Los Angeles also has the advantage on ten days to prepare, while the Niners had to play Monday night. There has been a major overreaction regarding these teams based on its nationally televised games last week. We take advantage with a short number here. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
206 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys have been very fortunate this year starting with its opening game victory hosting Missouri. Keep in mind Wyoming was +3 in turnovers and lost the yardage battle by 148 against the Tigers. In five games this season Wyoming has yet to lose the turnover battle and sits at a +8 on the season in that regard. The Cowboys have a season long first down deficit of 39 on the year. Which is amazing for a team with a 4-1 record. What all these numbers tell us is that this team could be the most lucky squad in the nation. San Diego State also sits at 4-1 on the year and by our numbers have played a one point easier schedule than Wyoming. The Aztecs have been just as fortunate with turnovers as the Cowboys, with a +9 advantage on the season. But unlike its opponent San Diego State has a +25 first down advantage, and have out gained all but one opponent. Losing the yardage by 3 to Utah State. Btw, Wyoming has lost the yardage battle in 4 of its 5 games. Our game grades show San Diego State to be over a touchdown better in this contest, and that number is on a neutral field. Wyoming’s strength is running the football at 5.64 yards per carry, but the Aztecs are a stout defense allowing only 1.79 ypc on the season. That will put the emphasis on Sean Chambers to throw the football, which isn’t a good thing if you are from Laramie. He is completing a terrible 38.6% of his throws and his QB rating is a minuscule 99.87. San Diego State has picked off twice as many balls as it has allowed touchdowns, 6 to 3. We expect a double digit win for the host here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
204 Penn State at Iowa Penn State has played 4 of 5 games at home and It’s toughest opponent thus far has been Pitt. A game in which the Nittany Lions really struggled. We love the defense Penn State has shown, but feel the offense took advantage of bad defenses. This will be by far the toughest defense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. This is a rare night game at Kinnick Stadium. And off a game it should have won we like the situation for the Hawkeyes. Iowa has allowed 44 combined points in five FBS games, that less than 9 points per contest. Yet they are a home underdog in what is expected to be a low scoring game. They have a +54 first down advantage on the season, which is amazing. Sure Iowa doesn’t have offensive explosiveness, but the ability to move the chains keeps opposing offenses off the field. We think Penn State is a bit overrated right now, and the betting markets are down on Iowa after the Michigan loss. PLAY IOWA |
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10-12-19 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -14 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
144 Old Dominion at Marshall The Monarchs cost us the last two weeks and we have learned our lesson. The competitive games against Virginia Tech, Virginia and East Carolina, don’t look nearly as good in retrospect. Old Dominion continues to struggle to run the football, and the pass defense is permitting a 140 passer rating. The +3 turnover margin is masking the problems of a 1 to 6 offensive TD to INT ratio. This team has lost to Marshall by 20 points or more in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The Thundering Herd is coming off an embarrassing 24-13 loss to Middle Tennessee State. Marshall outgained the Blue Hens by 177 yards but lost the turnover battle by 4. Losses to Boise State and Cincinnati can be forgiven, but the way this team looked last week is problematic. The Marshall defensive weakness is against the pass, but the Monarchs don’t have a quality passing attack. Marshall won a combined 17 games the past two seasons and returned 14 starters from a year ago. We expect this to be a breakout game for the host. PLAY MARSHALL |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
110 Virginia at Miami Fl We were high on the Cavaliers coming into the season, but just haven’t seen enough out of this club to trust them on the road here. Our numbers show these two teams have played exactly the same schedules strength wise. Virginia has played 3 of 5 at home with an average game score of 93.2. Miami played a neutral site game along with three at home and one away. The Hurricanes have an average game score of 97.3. When we break down the numbers we find the Cavaliers with a 0.99 yards per play advantage, while Miami is plus 1.79. The host is going with N’Kosi Perry at quarterback this week. He led the Hurricanes back last week after falling behind Virginia Tech early. In that game Miami outgained the Hokies by 226 yards and ten first downs. It was a -5 turnover margin that cost them the game. That’s the first time all season the Hurricanes lost the turnover battle. Miami has outgained every opponent this season including Florida in the season opener. Miami is a much better team than the 2-3 record. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
106 Louisiana Monroe at Texas State The Warhawks enter this contest after falling at home to Memphis, while Texas State had a bye after two straight victories. Against FBS competition the visitor has played a 2 point tougher schedule. ULM has played twice on the road, a 45-44 loss at Florida State and a 72-20 defeat at Iowa State. What looked like an impressive result against the Seminoles, looks a bit different now. Florida State has been a major disappointment, and the +2 turnover margin and negative 82 yard deficit is more telling. ULM is 6-17 straight up on the road under Matt Viator. Jake Spavital is in his first season in San Marcos. After losing to Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU, he talked about the team starting a new season. Those clubs are currently a combined 13-3. Since that point the Bobcats pounded a pretty good FCS squad in Nicholls State, and beat a 3-2 Georgia State team that upset Tennessee. With the extra week to prepare and our numbers showing the host as a slight favorite, we will gladly take the points with an underrated Bobcats squad. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
458 Jacksonville at Carolina Surprised by the line movement on this game as we have the Panthers as the higher rated squad. Just from an average game grade Carolina is two points better, which should make this line a bargain at the current price. The Panthers are an improved offense when you take away the games started by the injured Cam Newton. He didn’t have the ability to throw down field or use his legs. By taking out those contests the Panthers are an even bigger favorite here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -5.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
459 Minnesota at NY Giants The Vikings have an average game score of 83 on the road, but that was against the much improved Packers defense, and the reigning #1 stop unit of the Bears. We all know Kirk Cousins struggles against winning teams, but now he gets to face the easiest opponent of the season. The Giants have gotten new life with the change at quarterback, but after facing the defenses of Tampa Bay and Washington, this is a huge upgrade. Minnesota is the better team on both sides of the ball, and are a solid road favorite play in the Mike Zimmer regime. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-06-19 | Bills +3 v. Titans | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
469 Buffalo at Tennessee This Buffalo defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any game this season. The last two meetings with the Titans resulted in 13-12 and 14-13 victories for Buffalo. Based on the weakness of these offenses, we can see a similar outcome here. We simply want no part of this Tennessee offense facing the type of pressure the Bills bring. This is the best stop unit Marriota and company have faced this year. We expect the visitor to win this one outright. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
391 Michigan State at Ohio State In the last six years Michigan State has been an underdog to the Buckeyes five times. The Spartans won 2 of those 5 games in straight up fashion, as 5 and 14 point dogs. In another game it lost 17-16 while catching 21 1/2 points. Under Mark Dantonio the Spartans are 15-9 ATS as a road underdog. The last time his team was here it was pummeled 48-3, so you know this game has been circled. The Michigan State defense has held the opposition to 1.86 yards per carry. Which is extremely important as Ohio State is averaging 6.10 yards per rush. If the Spartans can slow down this Buckeye running game, Ohio State won’t be nearly as successful through the air. While the Michigan State offense hasn’t looked good overall this season, the team has only turned the ball over four times. The passing game has a 10 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is also a key in this contest. The Buckeyes have looked terrific this year, but have feasted on poor defenses. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Ohio State is at its peak right now, and we step in with a ton of value on this defensive dog. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-05-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +3 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 50 m | Show |
384 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Don’t understand why the Hilltoppers are favored here. All of our numbers show the wrong team is the chalk. When looking at FBS opponents only the Monarchs have played a slightly tougher schedule. Despite that fact Old Dominion has been outgained by 23 yards per game, while Western is being outplayed by 25 yards per contest. On the season vs FBS competition Western Kentucky is even in turnovers, but have lost the first down battle by a combined 10. Old Dominion is +1 in turnovers and is +4 in first downs. The Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite under Tyson Helton. We are currently on a 15-1 College Football run with our only loss coming on these Monarchs last week against East Carolina. We return to the scene of the crime, as an overreaction has been made in the Western Kentucky victory over UAB. A team that lost the yardage battle by 76 but took advantage of a +3 turnover margin. Wrong team favored here. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo +3.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
372 Ohio U at Buffalo This line is built on preseason expectations much more than on the field results. While the Bobcats do have an extra week to prepare, we are not sure the extra time will change the team woes. These two teams have rotated victories since 2010. Last year Ohio pounded the Bulls 52-17. So based on history it’s the Buffalo year for a victory. Ohio has played a two point tougher FBS schedule thus far, but the numbers clearly point to the wrong team being favored here. Our numbers show Buffalo to have a three point higher game score on the season. A key to this game will be the Buffalo running game, combined with the lack of passing success for the Bobcats. Buffalo is out gaining it’s opponents on the ground 4.7 ypc to 2.8 ypc. While Ohio u is allowing 5.5 yards per carry themselves. The Bulls have struggled against the pass allowing a 156 passer rating and 12 touchdowns. But we have series concerns that Ohio can take advantage. The Bobcats only have a 130 passer rating with a 6 to 4 TD to INT ratio. According to recent history Buffalo gets the victory here, and the season stats back it up. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
356 Iowa at Michigan Turnovers and regression are the key handicap in this contest of Big 10 contenders. We’ve witnessed for ourselves the problems the Wolverines have had holding on to the football. So far the count is three interceptions and 12 fumbles. The later being the major outlier. Overall Michigan sits at -4 turnovers this season. Iowa on the other hand has played near perfect ball, losing one turnover all season. The Hawkeyes overall +5 turnover margin is one of the leaders in the country. That nine turnover differential is one reason money is coming in against the host. Before the season started the Games of the Year plays offered by the various sports books had Michigan listed as a 10 1/2 point favorite. This major move is based more on turnover differential than talent advantages. This is a cheap number for the host. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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10-05-19 | Utah State +28 v. LSU | 6-42 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
393 Utah State at LSU Huge opportunity for the Aggies to make a name for themselves on the national stage. Utah State has been at its best since 2009 as a road underdog with a 25-15 ATS mark, 9-2 ATS as a double digit road dog. LSU has played a two point tougher FBS schedule, yet the game score numbers show this Mountain West underdog to be somewhat competitive here. The Aggies only allow 2.7 ypc which should slow down this LSU running game. The Tigers passing game is elite, but Utah State has a solid QB in Jordan Love who can put points on the board to keep this relatively close. Can Utah State win? Probably not, but it does have the athletes to battle with one of the best teams in college football. LSU is off a bye, but do you really think the focus was on this small team from out west? No, it’s on Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, the next three weeks. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
275 Dallas at New Orleans The Cowboys protect the quarterback better than any team in the league, allowing just 2% sacks per pass attempt. Much of that is because the Cowboys rank 4th in the league in yards per play rushing the football. This team leads the league in 3rd down percentage at 58% success. The Saints are in the lower half of the league offensively, at 21st in yards per game. They also score just 24 points per contest, with most of the success coming under Drew Brees. The Saints are 30th in defensive yards per play and 29th in passing yards allowed per game. This Saints defense will be in for a long day. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-29-19 | Panthers +4.5 v. Texans | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
251 Carolina at Houston Carolina has had a productive offense this season, despite the starting QB being limited because of injury. Now with a healthy backup behind center we look for the Panthers to build on its success last week. Defensively the Panthers are 2nd in the league in yards per play. They are especially strong defensing the pass, allowing just 166 yards per game through the air. Offensively Houston struggles to protect Watson, allowing a sack rate just short of 13% every time he goes back to pass. That’s 30th in the league. The Texans have been terrible stopping the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry. We feel the Panthers are the better team, and have proven themselves away from home. This is a more than fair number we will take advantage of. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
255 Washington at NY Giants Washington has had a hard time running the football, but should find great success in the passing game. They rank 9th in the league in passing yards per game. The return game also is in the top 10 of the league. The defensive weakness is in 3rd down defense, but the Giants are without its best player at RB and is starting a rookie QB with just one game under his belt. The Giants lead the league in rushing yards per play, but that won’t be the strength without its star. This team ranks 31st defensively in stopping the run, and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. We see the Skins have a great deal of success through the air. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-28-19 | Colorado State +24.5 v. Utah State | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
193 Colorado State at Utah State The last three seasons the Rams have outscored the Aggies by a 15 point combined margin. This despite being a combined 26 point underdog. In FBS contests this year Colorado State is averaging 57 more offensive yards than Utah State. Defensively Utah State is 35 yards better. So the numbers are very close between the two. So it must be strength of schedule that is the big difference. Not so, as the Rams played Colorado on a neutral, at Arkansas and hosted Toledo. The Aggies played at Wake Forest and San Diego State. Our power ratings show that Utah State played a 2 point tougher FBS schedule. Not nearly enough evidence to have the Aggies in this price range. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 1 m | Show |
166 Kansas State at Oklahoma State The Wildcats are coming in off a bye after upsetting Mississippi State on the road. But while K State got the victory, it was out-gained by 83 yards. The Wildcats live and die off the running game, but this will be the best rush defense they have faced. As for stopping the run this team has permitted 4.74 yards per carry, against a weak overall slate. Oklahoma State has run the ball effectively this season. In three FBS games the Cowboys have produced 5.94 ypc. All three of those games were on the road. Oklahoma State is much better tested and has double revenge for losses by 19 and 5 points the past two seasons. This team is 9-2 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for a Cowboy rebound on Saturday. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -3 | 24-21 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
180 East Carolina at Old Dominion In FBS games Old Dominion has looked much better than the Pirates. When comparing yards per game ODU is much better than East Carolina. The Pirates were out gained by 236 yards at NC State, and 246 yards at Navy. The Monarchs played at Virginia Tech losing the yardage by 79, and won the yardage last week at Virginia by 26. We were on Old Dom last week and view them as a bet on team. They are holding the opposition to 2.74 yards per carry. Which is key as East Carolina has a weak passing game. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -12 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
174 Virginia at Notre Dame The Cavaliers have played three FBS games with a +3 combined turnover advantage. In those games they out yarded the opposition by just 107 total yards, despite playing 2 of 3 at home. Virginia averaged 3.9 ypc against Pittsburgh, 3.8 npc against Florida State and only 2.4 ypc last week vs Old Dominion. Needless to say if this team can’t run this week, they can’t compete. Defensively Virginia has yet to force a fumble, while ND has forced ten. The Irish in three games have a turnover margin of -4. We were really impressed by this team last week giving Georgia all they could handle. In fact, they were only out gained by 18 despite giving the Bulldogs four extra possessions via turnover. With only Bowling Green on deck we look for the Irish to bounce back in a big way. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
202 USC at Washington In our opinion the Trojans are coming off a nationally televised victory that they didn’t deserve. Utah had 11 more first downs and out gained the Trojans by 76 yards. USC is 1-6 as a road underdog under Clay Helton. They are 8-9 straight up on the road in his tenure. Despite playing 3 of 4 games at home USC is being beaten in ypc by 1.39. Washington has out gained every opponent it faced, and owns a +1.12 ypc on the season. The Huskies defense has intercepted more balls (4), than TD’s allowed (3). USC is down to its fourth string QB coming out of the spring. We doubt this offense has much success against this quality Huskies defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +4.5 v. California | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
111 Arizona State at California Last week we faded an Arizona State team that was ranked 24th in the country. It paid off as Colorado won outright. This week we fade another overrated PAC12 team as Cal enters this contest ranked 15th. Knowing how to read the betting markets is a key to making a living in this industry. Here we see the ranked California team being installed as a 5 1/2 point favorite as an opener. Since that time a steady stream of money has come in on the unranked visitor. And we fully agree with that market move. Cal has been out gained in all three FBS contests. The key to the Bears victories was a +3 turnover margin. That’s not likely to continue this week as Arizona State has an attacking defense that has already forced 13 fumbles on the season. The Sun Devils are also allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. A solid number in what we all expect to be a low scoring game. With Arizona State taking care of the ball with just one interception on the season, we find plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
104 Navy at Memphis This line has bounced around since opening at 11 1/2 on Sunday. It went as low as 10 but was quickly gobbled up. We make this line 15 so we have plenty of value on the host. Navy coming off a rare down season with a 3-10 mark, started the year with impressive wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina. But despite the 87-17 combined winning margin we haven’t really been impressed. Especially considering how disappointing the Pirates of East Carolina have been. Neither of those teams has an offense to challenge this questionable Midshipmen defense. Memphis is coming in off a bye, which gives the team extra time to prepare for the option. That’s a key ingredient in this handicap. The Tigers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five seasons coming in off a bye. Mike Norvell has really had his team ready with extra preparation time. He’s covered the number by a combined 56 1/2 points in his five games after a bye. Memphis is also looking to avenge a 22-21 loss last year in Annapolis. With Navy riding a ten game straight up losing streak on the road, we fire on the home favorite here. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6 v. Bucs | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
477 NY Giants at Tampa Bay Despite having Eli Manning behind center, the Giants have been very efficient offensively this season. But now the Giants have the ability to stretch the field with the quarterback change. There has been a divide between the players and management regarding who lined up behind center. Now that the change has been made, we look for this to be a rallying point game for the Giants players. The Bucs are a team we can make money on this season, but not as a sizable home favorite. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 7 m | Show |
466 Baltimore at Kansas City As much as we like this Baltimore Ravens team, this squad is taking a huge step up in competition this week. After facing Miami and Arizona, (the two lowest season win teams coming into the season), they now face the most successful offense in the league. We all know that offense is much more sticky than defense from season to season, and week to week. So we know the Chiefs will get plenty of points here. But we’re not so sure that Baltimore can match them. The alignments Andy Reid uses should work very well against this Ravens defense. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much. The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
190 Florida State at Virginia The Seminoles survived last weeks 45-44 victory over Louisiana Monroe. After two games this Florida State defense has been on the field for 187 total plays. The Seminoles defense ranks 118th in the country in allowing explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Virginia on the other hand ranks 22nd in that same category. Despite entering play with a -1 turnover margin, the Cavaliers have outgunned the opposition by a combined 365 yards. The win over Pittsburgh 30-14 looks much better after the Panthers pounded the MAC favorite Ohio 20-10 last week. Florida State hasn’t fared well when getting hit in the face this season. The team gets off to a nice start, but once trouble starts this team has shown little character. Bronco Mendenhall always gets the best out of his players. And the host has the much more complete team. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-14-19 | Texas State +17.5 v. SMU | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
179 Texas State at SMU Coming off a game in which it outplayed Wyoming in a loss. We are willing to back under the radar Texas State to keep this one interesting. QB Frank Harris has posted a 71.7% completion rate on the season and has enough talent to keep this SMU offense off the field. SMU is off a solid win over North Texas, and has a step up game against instate host TCU next week. Nice spot and value on the instate underdog here. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-14-19 | Army -17 v. UTSA | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
141 Army at UTSA The Black Knights took the Wolverines to overtime last week. Despite the loss the Cadets were the better squad. Normally you would look for a letdown here from a normal football team, but military squads are much stronger mentally. Army only has Morgan State on deck, and you have to feel that last week will bring them in with positive momentum. The Road Runners have a conference game with North Texas on deck, after facing off with the Big 12 entrant Baylor. This will be the first time Texas San Antonio has faced off against an option squad. So how much prep will they have considering the spot. Keep in mind UTSA ranks 111th in explosiveness. Not a good sign when taking on a team that will dominate the clock. PLAY ARMY |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
104 North Carolina at Wake Forest Tar Heels have gotten off to an impressive start with victories over South Carolina and Miami Florida. But going out on the road for your first true away game on a short week is going to be very difficult, especially after facing a physical Hurricanes stop unit. North Carolina was 0-6 SU last year and 2-9 SU the past two seasons. Only one road game last year was decided by less than seven points. Keep in mind despite the 28-25 home win over Miami, the Tar Heels were outgunned by 99 yards. Wake Forest is also off to a nice 2-0 start with wins over Utah State and Rice. This is a great spot for the Demon Deacons, off Rice and with Elon on deck. Dave Clawson has been a money maker since coming to Winston-Salem with a 32-26-2 spread record. After back to back three win seasons, his teams have won seven games or more the last three years. This squad can start the year 4-0 with a victory here. A huge season could be in store with Boston College, Louisville and Florida state upcoming. In fact, the game at Clemson in mid-November could be Wake’s only loss on the year. But we are getting way ahead of ourselves in that regard. Our numbers show Wake to be the better team and the scheduling spot gives us even more ammunition. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
388 California at Washington Major revenge game here for the Huskies who lost 12-10 last year in Berkeley. Word out of Seattle is that former Georgia Bulldog Jacob Eason is making a strong case for this Huskies offense. Washington put up 47 points last week against a very good FCS program Eastern Washington. Eason has a 190 passer rating in that contest. We all know about this defense which held the opposition to just 4.2 yards per play. California only averaged 21.5 points per game a year ago, and managed just 27 last week against Cal Davis. The Bears ended last season scoring 15 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 games. Can’t see how Cal can score enough points to keep it close against this terrific Washington defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-07-19 | Tulane v. Auburn -17 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
372 Tulane at Auburn Now that this line has come into range we are going to pounce on this cheaply priced favorite. Tulane ran the ball right down the throat of the FIU defense last week, averaging 7.1 yards per carry on 49 attempts. That’s just what the Green Wave do. But that was against a smaller defense, not one of the biggest and fastest in the country like you find in the SEC. Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in college football. Last week the Tigers held the Ducks to just 2.7 yards per carry. A team with an NFL ready quarterback and a dangerous offense. Many will talk about the letdown after a last second victory. That is why this line has dropped. But we now have a huge point spread advantage, as this has been a huge reaction. No way this situation is worth five points or more in the betting line. This price is one hell of a bargain. PLAY AUBURN |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
331 Nebraska at Colorado Nebraska struggled in a 35-21 win over South Alabama last week. Despite putting up 35 points the team only averaged 2.2 npc and 4.2 yards per play. It was the Cornhuskers defense that was dominant. It’s quite possible that the players looked past the Sun Belt entrant with Colorado revenge on deck. The Buffaloes beat Colorado State 52-31 but really struggled to put away a bad FBS team. The Rams ran for 4.2 npc and averaged 6.5 yards per play. While the Colorado offense looked impressive, it did so against a Colorado State defense that permitted 37 points per game a year ago and return just six defensive starters. Before last week our numbers had Nebraska to win this game by 8 points. This line has moved too much off last weeks results. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
317 Syracuse at Maryland What a difference in the line when you blow out a nobody 79-0. Maryland crushed Howard last week and now the markets are buying into the Terrapins. The same Maryland team who made a terrible higher of Mike Locksley as head coach. Sure he’s a solid recruiter, but he’s never shown the ability to lead a team. He was 2-26 at New Mexico before being fired. He was an assistant here and his teams never won more than seven games in any of his four years. Yes, he was offensive coordinator at Alabama the past two seasons, but just about any coach can have success there with that elite talent. Syracuse has a proven head coach in Dino Babers, who took this team from a four win squad in his first year to ten wins last season. Babers won 18 games in two seasons at Bowling Green. The Falcons won nine total in the three years since he has left. Before last week we had Syracuse rated eight points higher than the Terrapins. After each team shutout its opening week opponent, the market is saying Syracuse is just one point better? We don’t buy it. Plenty of added value on the visitor here. Btw, Babers is 9-3 ATS here as a road underdog. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
451 Green Bay at Chicago The Packers were a 7.4 pythagorean win team a year ago. That was with Mike McCarthy who was finally fired by Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers played with an injured knee all season. Between his improved health and a fresh offensive play calling outlook, we expect much better things from the Packers. Green Bay was 27th in the league in play-action passes a year ago. That number will rise significantly with the coaching change. Chicago had an 11.5 pythagorean win team last year. The Bears lost Vic Fangio after the season which should have an affect on that terrific defense from a year ago. This team was 20th in offensive DVOA and opponents will be more prepared for the running of Mitch Trubisky. The Packers have this game circled after not making the playoffs last two years, and the Bears are considered the class of the division. A solid handicapping angle for the opening week also puts us on the divisional road dog here. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
216 Oklahoma at Houston Love the Houston quarterback D’Eriq King who had an outstanding QBR of 167 last season. He brings back a talented offense, but we have major concerns about this Cougars defense. The team permitted 37.2 points per game a year ago, and that was with #9 NFL draft pick Ed Oliver. Oklahoma has set offensive records each of the last two years, and brings in former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts. The concern is a depleted offensive line that lost four players in the first four rounds of the draft. While the offense is likely to see some regression, we love the defensive moves in the offseason. The defensive key is the new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. He did wonders with Washington State in his two years there. Word from camp is the entire defense is buying in, and key defensive linemen have built up muscle while losing weight. That should really work well against this type of offense in Houston. While we expect this game to be extremely high scoring, we expect the Sooners to threaten 60 points. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-30-19 | Utah State +5 v. Wake Forest | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
147 Utah State at Wake Forest The Aggies are coming off a tremendous season that saw Matt Wells leave for a higher paying job. Gary Anderson returns to Logan after a previous stint from 2009-2012. Anderson posted a 15-5 ATS mark here in non-conference action. While many have pointed to the return of just nine starters, the team brought back just nine starters a year ago and won 11 games. The key is returning starting QB Jordan Love, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. We highly respect Wake coach Dave Clawson, but we don’t expect much out of this squad this season. The Demon Deacons are second to last in the ACC in recruiting, and this offense is sure to regress this season. Every newsletter we read favored Wake Forest here, and yet the line hasn’t risen. That’s because the smart money knows how good this Aggies team really is. Sure, we would rather have Matt Wells on the sideline, but if he was still here Utah State may have been favored. Better quarterback and the stronger defense as an underdog is something we rarely see. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 | 14-42 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
137 Florida International at Tulane The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019. PLAY OVER |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +125 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
102 New England & Los Angeles Rams We were waiting for the +3 on the Rams, but it may not show. That’s fine as this will be graded on the LA Rams money line, as we feel the Rams win this one outright. If you are able to get +3 -110 yourself, we would recommend that as well. First off let’s take a look at the advantages the Patriots have over the Rams. Head Coach and Quarterback. There has been no better combination in the history of the NFL than Brady & Belichick. The Patriots have the vast experience in the Super Bowl, which should be a slight edge for the veterans. Other than those edges the Rams are more talented and faster in virtually every position on the field. In the big game last year the Eagles ran the ball all over the Pats, mostly from 11 personnel. It just so happens that the Rams run 11 personnel more than any other team in the league. That’s one running back and one tight end. And as with last year the Pats really struggle defending that alignment. Other than running straight up the middle New England allows a very high success rate on the ground. When the Patriots have the ball they are excellent at hitting running backs out of the backfield, and taking advantage of short slot plays across the middle. But those two spots are exactly where the Rams excel. Brady has real problems facing pressure up the middle, which is where the Rams pass rush attacks. Therefore the way for New England to succeed in the passing game is longer throws down the sidelines. And quite frankly New England doesn’t have the personnel to win in that regard. Brady is worse than league average throwing outside the hash marks, and the Pats don’t have enough wide receiver speed to get open. Every pro we have talked to had made this line roughly Los Angeles -1 before the line was released. In fact, the majority of bookmakers opened that exact line. The reason this line moved is that if you wanted to bet the Patriots you wanted to make sure you got it before it hit the key number of three. If you want to bet the Rams there is no reason to place a bet when the line continued to rise. That is why 80% of the bets and money have come in on the Patriots. All the Rams money is still out there waiting for the key number of three, and if it doesn’t show, those bettors will be happy to play what they rated as the favorite getting plus money. PLAY LOS ANGELES RAMS MONEY LINE Other ways we attacked this game: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser Los Angeles +8 1/2 Over 50 1/2 All props will be from the current lines at The Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas in rotation order You should be able to do better shopping these numbers Props 10060 No safety -900 10084 No defensive or special teams touchdown -240 Neither team had a punt blocked this season Teams combined to allow just one return of any kind all season 10164 James White receiving yards Under 53 1/2 -110 10168 James White receptions Under 6 -130 10184 Julian Edelman receiving yards Under 82 1/2 -110 10305 Jared Goff pass completions Over 24 -110 10351 Todd Gurley receptions Over 3 1/2 +120 10354 CJ Anderson rushing yards Under 43.5 -110 10360 CJ Anderson score a touchdown No -180 10382 Brandin Cooks receiving yards Under 72 1/2 -110 10397 Josh Reynolds receptions Over 3 1/2 +110 10504 Jared Goff more completions +2 1/2-110 10536 Rams more first downs +1 1/2 -110 66016 No missed extra point -340 These two kickers combined for 84 of 86 extra points and 40 of 40 on field goals of 39 or less yards. Over/Under is 6.25 touchdowns 66020 Total quarterback sacks Under 3 1/2 +110 |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
314 New England at Kansas City This line is telling you that the Patriots are a better team on a neutral field. That just isn’t the case. The Patriots have had so much success in the playoffs because it plays in the weakest division in football over the past decade. The Pats get to beat up on weak teams and build a better record than its playoff foes. Brady and company have been great at Foxboro, but much less impressive on the road. Kansas City has one of the three highest home field advantages in the NFL. We grade the Chiefs at 4 points just for the location. Then adding in the home/road dichotomy of both these teams an Kansas City should be at least a 5 point favorite here. The Pats are older and slower on both sides of the line, it’s time to name a new AFC Champion. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
312 LA Rams at New Orleans Don’t understand why this line is so cheap. New Orleans has one of the top home field advantages in football along with Seattle and Kansas City. We rate the Saints at home to have a 4 point edge. Throw in the fact that the Saints have been undefeated at home in the playoffs with Brees under center. Along with Goff having major home/road splits, and you find value of at least 5 points on the host. It’s even a bit higher when you realize the Rams looked so good last week while the Saints underperformed the line. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
307 Philadelphia at New Orleans The Eagles are a completely different offense under Foles, and the team has responded to his leadership for the second year in a row. The Saints can be beaten deep and Foles has the talent around him to exploit the Saints weakness. New Orleans on the other hand should have a field day against this banged up Philadelphia secondary. The way the Eagles play defense sets up great for this offense, just like it did in the earlier meeting. With this game being played indoors we look for a shootout. PLAY New Orleans |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
302 Indianapolis at Kansas City Third straight must win road game for the Colts, who needed to make the playoffs in the final regular season game at Tennessee. This will be the Colts fourth road game in the last six weeks. Since the Colts first five games in which injuries derailed this club, the team has played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league. That’s dead last in the NFL since week six of the season. In fact, last week the Texans were majorly beat up at the receiver position. A week after playing the Texans without its starting quarterback. So while the numbers say this Indy defense is much improved, keep in mind the weak offenses the Colts have played. Andy Reid has been terrific with an extra week to prepare in his coaching history. Kansas City along with Seattle have the largest home field advantage in the NFL. The Chiefs have been at home all but two games since November 20th. This team has a major deep passing advantage against the Colts secondary. Kelce and Hill will have huge games this weekend as the Colts simply don’t have the team speed defensively in this matchup. Kansas City also has one of the best pass rushes Indy has faced all season. As good as the Colts have protected Luck, the opponents faced have mostly been weak at getting the pressure on the quarterback. Taking into account the home field value of the Chiefs, along with the buy week, this line is saying the Colts are the better team. No way that is the case. Very cheap number especially considering the matchup advantages for the host here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
301 Indianapolis at Kansas City With the snow having an effect on the game casual bettors are playing the under. But that plays right into the hands of the offense as the receivers have a bigger advantage knowing where they are going. Wind not snow is a reason to play an under, and we already expected to see plenty of scoring in this game. Indy plays zone defense and the Chiefs are excellent in picking apart the zone. Kansas City is terrible against the run, which will open up the Colts passing game. We look for a shootout here and the number is even better with the weather. PLAY OVER |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 46 m | Show |
104 Seattle at Dallas The Seahawks run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They have done so against a very weak schedule of run defenses. Dallas has a solid defensive line with two superior linebackers. So what Seattle does best plays into the strength of the Dallas defense. Seattle finished the regular season at -0.3 yards per play which is the worst of all playoff teams, much of that because of how much the Seahawks rely on running the football. Dallas really took off offensively after adding Amari Cooper. The team has used Elliot out of the backfield in passing situations, which it didn’t do enough of early in the season. Really surprised by this line move considering the home/road dichotomy of these two teams. Seattle at home has been outstanding but not nearly as good on the road. After not having much of a home field advantage, Dallas has been very good at home this year. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-01-19 | Texas +11.5 v. Georgia | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
277 Texas & Georgia in New Orleans The Longhorns lost just two of its last 11 regular season games. The defeats coming to Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia by a single point. Texas also split against Oklahoma losing the conference championship. Tom Herman has been an excellent underdog regardless of where he has coached. Off his worst loss of the season we expect the best out of this Texas squad. Georgia is an elite team that deserved to be in the final four. It was even more pronounced after Notre Dame was pounded by Clemson. But the question to be asked is how is this team going to get up to play Texas here, after being so close to playing for the national title. This is the least important bowl game in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has the superior talent, but winning by this margin is very questionable. We know what we are going to get out of the Longhorns, not so much out of the Bulldogs. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
275 LSU & UCF in Glendale The Tigers were a bit overrated all season but still ended up cashing half its games. When breaking down how it did against elite opponents LSU went 1-3 SU with the only victory coming against Georgia in a game with a +4 turnover advantage. Losses to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M were understandable. Central Florida obviously played a much easier schedule, which is the main reason the winning streak is still intact. Last year the Knights beat fellow SEV squad Auburn in the Peach Bowl 34-27. But the Tigers chain they were disinterested in playing. The key to this game in Central’s ability to run the football against this very talented LSU front seven. We believe UCF can score enough in this game to take it to the wire. The loss of QB Milton hurts, but the backup has had plenty of reps in the last month. Too many points here for the Tigers to lay. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern +6.5 v. Utah | 31-20 | Win | 102 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
265 Northwestern & Utah in San Diego The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS the last decade in bowl games, winning 3 of the last 4 in straight up fashion. Pat Fitzgerald is an excellent coach who gets the best out of his players when not at a major talent disadvantage. Wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa, should prepare his team today. Kyle Whittingham is also a coach that deserves accolades. His only losses this year were to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, three teams that went bowling. But when looking at quality wins the best we can come up with are Stanford and BYU. We have these two clubs rated much closer than the current number, which is why we feel the victor gets the win by a field goal or less. Plenty of value on the Big 10 here. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Oregon | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
261 Michigan State & Oregon in Santa Clara Mark Dantonio is a coach we are looking to back this time of year. His teams are 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl season as of late, with the only loss coming at the hands of Nick Saban and Alabama. We have no problem fading a PAC12 team in this price range, as the conference as a whole has been a major disappointment. There is some excitement in Eugene with Justin Herbert returning behind center for another season, but he wasn’t overly impressive this year. Michigan State is the better coached team and gets the victory here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-30-18 | Browns +6.5 v. Ravens | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
315 Cleveland at Baltimore Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. While the Ravens need a victory to make the playoffs, the Browns have their own motivation. With a win Cleveland can end the season with a winning record, something that didn’t look possible under the previous coach. When looking at stats for the past six weeks it’s the Browns, not the Ravens who have been the slightly better team. This game should be decided by a field goal either way. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins +6 v. Bills | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Miami at Buffalo Money continues to pour in on the Bills, as many feel the warm blooded Dolphins will simply throw in the towel and not mentally show up in Buffalo. But keep in mind these are professionals and more importantly divisional rivals. This line has risen at least two points based on something that is based on hearsay. Let’s take a look at home the Dolphins have done going north the last two games of the season. Over the last decade Miami is 8-2 ATS traveling to a cold weather climate, 7-2 ATS when playing that game outside a dome. Buffalo has been better than many thought, but not to the extent of this number. The Bills may in fact win, but the cover is seriously in doubt. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars +7 v. Texans | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
313 Jacksonville at Houston Going against teams that need to win worked out well again last week, as a late Jets collapse cost us a perfect 3-0 Sunday. If it’s not broke don’t fix it and history shows teams in must win situations are a very poor ATS play. Jacksonville’s defense has been outstanding for most of the season. And now Bortles the much more mobile quarterback is back behind center. It’s clear that the Jags have had offensive line problems all season, with a mobile QB behind center Jacksonville should find yards earlier to come by. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
256 Notre Dame & Clemson at Arlington Just about everyone we respect in the gambling community rates Notre Dame outside of the top four by power ratings. Georgia would have been a ten point favorite over the Irish on a neutral field. So while Notre Dame went undefeated, keep in mind the only real team it beat was Michigan in the season opener. Clemson has the postseason pedigree that the Irish lack. The Tigers have played in the national semi-final each of the last three seasons. The defense could be the best in the nation even with the drug suspensions. In our eyes the starting quarterback is the most pro ready signal caller in the country, even without starting the season behind center. Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama are elite, Notre Dame is on another lower level. PLAY CLEMSON |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State +2 v. Nevada | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
245 Arkansas State & Nevada in Arizona Wrong team is favored in our eyes as the Red Wolves take much better care of the ball that the Wolf Pack. Arkansas State lost the turnover battle just twice all season. Arkansas State has posted eight straight winning seasons, with this being the eighth straight bowl game for the Red Wolves. The final four games of the season saw this squad allow just 54 combined points. Nevada lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 FBS games. Keep in mind this club won just three games last year and haven’t been to a bowl since 2015. Wrong team favored. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +130 | 3-35 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
238 Miami Florida & Wisconsin at New York Warm weather squad Miami has to travel to the Bronx in order to avenge the Orange Bowl loss of a year ago. While Miami enters this game at 7-5, none of the wins came against a team having a quality year. Toledo, FIU, North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech all had down years. The victory over Pittsburgh was the week before the Panthers had to play Clemson in the ACC Final. Wisconsin had a disappointing season as well with the best quality wins coming against Purdue and Iowa, both on the road. The weather is obviously a benefit for the Badgers here, as well as the strong run game of Wisconsin. Teams that run the football have a solid advantage in timing over a passing team that hasn’t played in 34 days. And Coach Rich has decided to bring back Rosier under center, who has gotten little play as of late. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football. Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |