*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been proving people wrong all year long. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superstar leading the Thunder all the way. In my opinion, SGA is the best player on the floor in this game. That is especially the case with Anthony Edwards banged up right now.

Minnesota gets Rudy Gobert back in this one, but there are clearly major chemistry problems with Gobert and the rest of the team. Minnesota isn't likely to get the amazing three point shooting from Mike Conley and company that they did in the Lakers game (at least in the first 3 quarters). The Timberwolves are an inconsistent team that actually enters this game not playing particularly well late in the season. 

The Thunder have covered the spread in 57% of their games this year. I think this game goes right down to the wire, so I'll take the points.

Take Oklahoma City. 

*3 Star Play on Jazz* The Boston Celtics have been one of the worst teams in the NBA the last few years when they are laying a big number. Boston is 50-73 ATS (40.7% ATS) as a favorite of 8 points or larger since the 2016-2017 season. When it has been against a team with a losing record straight up, Boston is just 39-67 (36.8% ATS) when laying 8 points or more.

Utah still can make the Western Conference playoffs with a good stretch here at the end of the season. They have plenty to play for in a spot like this. 

Boston is coming off a 140-99 epic blowout win over the Bucks in Milwaukee last night. It's a quick turnaround here, and no one could blame the Celtics for just wanting to get out with a win in this one. This isn't a good spot for Boston.

I'll grab the points here.

Take Utah. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season.

This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. 

These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. 

In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. 

The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo.

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Rockets* The Memphis Grizzlies get Ja Morant back for this one. They will not have Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, or Brandon Clarke. Morant is a great player, but after a long break and major off the court issues this could be a bit strange from a team chemistry standpoint. Memphis is a very talented team, but they are far from 100 percent and it could take some time for Morant to get back into the flow.

The Houston Rockets have actually been much more competitive of late as they have gotten healthier as a team.

In game 67 or later of the season- A team with an ATS win percentage of 43% or lower (Houston) against a team with a ATS win percentage of 45% or higher (Memphis) is 265-200 ATS (57% Wins) dating back to 2006. This one fits the system.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play on 76ers* The Chicago Bulls have typically played pretty well against subpar teams, but they haven't been good when they step up in class. Chicago is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Philadelphia 76ers are really playing some good basketball of late. Philadelphia is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games. They are playing excellent defense of late. Joel Embiid is playing some of the best basketball of his career.

The 76ers lost the last time these two played. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings against the Bulls. I like them to bounce back from this rare SU and ATS loss the last time these two played.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game.

This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Denver* The Toronto Raptors have been bad on the road all year. Who is an elite home team? The Denver Nuggets. Denver is 29-4 at home this year. They are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games. 

Denver has an excellent home court advantage with a good fan base and the excellent elevation advantage. Toronto went to overtime in their last game on Saturday. The Raptors aren't a particularly deep team anymore.

Denver is healthier than they have been in quite a while, and this Nuggets team is in great form. It's a good spot for them.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like the addition of Mitchell Robinson back into the lineup for the Knicks. Robinson ranks second in defensive efficiency rating on the Knicks team of the players who average 25 minutes of more per game. Robinson is both a very good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder.

The Knicks already play at a pace as slow as any team in the NBA. New York has had trouble with this Boston defense in their recent meetings.

Boston ranks bottom ten in the league in pace in their last ten games as well. The Celtics are expected to be without Jaylen Brown in this game. Brown is one of the keys to the offense.

This divisional contest is a big game for both teams and I like the defenses to show up strong here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a road trip and they have been very busy. They just played on February 10th and 11th in Sacramento. The game on the 11th went into overtime as well. The first game back home can be a tough spot.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving together is a dangerous combo for the NBA, but it could take some time for them to get everything figured out.

Minnesota has a lot of talent, and the Timberwolves are coming off an embarrassing loss last game. The Wolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss. 

Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS laying 5.5 points or more against a non-division opponent. The Mavericks haven't been good laying points in general. The oddsmakers have set a pretty big number here against a Timberwolves team that should be pretty good with Mike Conley in the fold.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has a solid history of playing lower scoring games against good teams. The under is 15-3 in the last 18 games the Sixers have played against a team with a winning record.

The ref crew in this game is a combined under record of a very solid 54.03% to the under in more than 1,100 games. This is about the best ref crew you could hope for if betting an under.

The Knicks rank dead last in pace in their last ten games. The 76ers are 24th out of 30 as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Denver Nuggets are 25-4 at home this year. You could argue they have the best home court advantage in the NBA. They play at a high altitude in Denver which makes tired teams really struggle. The Timberwolves are playing their third game in five days. Minnesota has seen two of their last four games go to overtime as well.

Denver was blasted by Minnesota Sunday by a score of 128-98. That should motivate them here in a very quick revenge spot. Last time around Denver sat all of their stars. Now it is expected that Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be back on the floor for the Nuggets.

Long-term one of the better ATS angles has been to back very good teams coming off an embarrassing blowout loss. That is especially the case when they are at home. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play on Pacers* Indiana is coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, but the Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. 

Sacramento is expected to be without De'Aaron Fox in this game. Fox is one of the most important players on their roster. I think they will really miss his passing ability and his ability to lead the transition opportunities they count on.

The Pacers are 16-11 straight up at home and with them catching more than a full possession against a team without an All Star caliber player, I have to back the home team here.

Take Indiana. 

*3 Star Play on Magic* The Orlando Magic aren't a good team, but they have been good at covering the spread. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. 

The 76ers are a really good team. They aren't in a good spot here though. Philadelphia poured a lot into that win over Denver on Saturday. That was the Embiid vs. Jokic huge game. Philly did take care of business there in a 7 point win. Embiid has been a bit hobbled of late, and his minutes may be reduced here.

Orlando should be able to at least stay competitive here.

Take the Magic. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Heat. Miami has had some very low scoring games of late, but those were against teams who are very good on defense. 

Orlando is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA. The Magic have played 17 of their last 23 games above this posted total. I think the Heat will have more success offensively against this Magic defense that is especially bad at defending the paint. 

Miami's defense is a good one, but the Magic are averaging 1.211 points per possession in their last five games.  Orlando's youngsters are starting to get much more efficient on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have met twice this year. The posted total in each of the first two games was 235.5. That's about where this one should be again. We're getting several points of line value. This one is inflated due to recent results.

Atlanta's defense is league average in the last ten games. The Bulls are 10th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. These two teams both play near the league average in tempo as well. 

These two teams both come into this game with a high fatigue factor. I think the pace will stay slower than expected here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Pelicans* The New Orleans Pelicans were embarrassed 124-98 by the Miami Heat in their last game. New Orleans is without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas are having very good seasons. This is a proud team that should be part of the playoffs again this season. 

The Orlando Magic are coming off a tough five game road trip. Orlando isn't good offensively, and Franz Wagner and Markelle Fultz are both questionable in this one.

Buying NBA teams off a blowout loss has been a good strategy in the long run. The Pelicans certainly fit that system, and I like them laying the very short number here.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early game in the week for both these teams. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and these teams will meet in the afternoon. 

New Orleans is on a long road trip, and they are without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans frontcourt will likely have trouble with Evan Mobley and company down low on defense for the Cavs.

Cleveland still ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Cavs are home and are the better team in this situation (injuries accounted for). Cleveland should be able to control the pace here.

Cleveland is coming off a road trip where they were worn down as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. New York is 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency during that period. They are very good on the defensive glass. This is a team that typically doesn't want to get in track meet type games.

Detroit plays fast, but they are bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons don't have that many consistent scoring options on offense.

Both of these teams rank lowly in assist percentage.

This is an early game where we could see some scoring droughts in an odd start time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time Golden State and San Antonio played earlier this year the posted total was 234 points. Now it has jumped by double digits. 

Though the Warriors have had a lot of high scoring games lately, 10 of their last 12 games have gone below this total. The Spurs have had 5 of their last 6 go under this number.

This game will be played in the Alamodome with 60,000 people or so expected to be in attendance. This is a massive venue with a unique shooting backdrop. These two teams both have good shooters, but a total this high on a neutral site that is a football stadium is too high for me.

The adjustment from the first game has been too big too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed by the Hornets in their last game. In the NBA, a great long term strategy has been to back good teams coming off big losses. The Bucks certainly qualify.

Let's see the specific angle. A team with a winning percentage of 51% or higher coming off a loss of 15 points or larger.. if they are the road team in their next game they are hitting 55.3% ATS in the past 15 years. Laying 4 points or fewer (up through the underdog role) it is 56.4%. This is a large sample size.

Milwaukee is a really good team even without Middleton on the floor. The Knicks have been really inconsistent of late, and RJ Barrett is listed as doubtful for this game. 

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell in this game. To say that Mitchell has been a large part of the Cavs offense is a massive understatement. Mitchell has been on fire of late, and everything has been running through him. Darius Garland is also listed as questionable for this game. Raul Neto will get more minutes here, and he is a liability on offense. 

The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in tempo. The Cavs are dead last in tempo. The Cavs are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Donovan Mitchell grades out as one of the Cavs weaker defenders, but he is a top offensive performer. 

I think the Cavs offense will be inefficient here. This total is pretty high given the circumstances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has become a big showcase day for the NBA. The Knicks won the early Christmas game 101-87 last year in the noon eastern start time. 

Christmas Day unders in general have done well, and the earlier starts have been excellent for under bettors. 

These guys still try their best to have a Christmas with family and friends and this is a tough spot to come in here and play a very early tipoff at Madison Square Garden after most of them likely had their family time on Christmas Eve. 

We've seen these games trend to a slower pace and less fouls. 

These two teams are 2nd and 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are 10th and 17th in offensive efficiency. 

This is a divisional rivalry game and I expect the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet in a divisional matchup tonight before their break for Christmas Eve. The Mavericks must play again on Christmas afternoon. 

The final day before break at Christmas has been good to under bettors in the long run. These players do want to get home and have some time with family as much as they can.

Even in normal situations, I like the under in this game. Divisional unders with a total of 218 or higher in the first 70 games of the season are 54.5% since 2006. 

All three referees in this game have been good under referees. That is especially the case for Brian Forte who has seen 54.5% of his games in his career stay under. 

These two both rank in the bottom six in tempo in the NBA. Houston is 27th in offensive efficiency in the last ten games too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 straight games that have finished under this posted total. Cleveland has played 16 straight games that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Cleveland is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA by a wide margin in their last 15 games. In fact, they are playing 2.5 possessions per game on average slower than the second slowest team in the league during this last 15 game span. They also have been the best defense in the NBA during that time. Cleveland is giving up just 1.043 points per possession. Mobley is a defensive beast, and the Cavs have really bought into their defensive style this season. 

Indiana is a higher scoring team, but they are middle of the pack in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pacers are actually only 25th in offensive efficiency. They play quickly though and have scored points largely because of volume. I don't think the Cavs will get into a track meet with them. 

The Cavs are the much better team, and I like their defense to control this one. Divisional unders have fared much better than non-divisional unders long term in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs have the best defense in the NBA so far this year. They are giving up just 1.066 points per possession. In their last ten contests, Cleveland is allowing only 1.024 points per possession. Cleveland is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Cavs are averaging just 94.7 possessions per game in their last ten games.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable and he missed the shoot around for this game. He's obviously a huge part of the Cleveland offense. Kevin Love is out for this game. 

Sacramento is a high scoring team, and that's why the total is this high. The Kings have been even higher at home though, and the Cavs have been good at dictating the tempo. 

Cleveland's last 11 games have stayed under this total in regulation. Only one game went over this number and that was an overtime contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Suns* Chris Paul is expected back in the lineup for this one. The Phoenix Suns have been playing great basketball overall, but they are coming off one bad performance against the Dallas Mavericks, and I think this is a good spot for them to bounce back.

Boston is an excellent team, but the Celtics are due for some regression on offense. Boston is averaging 1.20 points per possession this year. That is insanely high, and on a spot here where they are playing their third road game in four days, I think some regression could come here.

Phoenix is 12-2 at home so far this year. That includes wins over Golden State twice. The Suns are getting healthy and would love nothing more than to trip up Boston in what is a bad situational spot for the Celtics.

Take Phoenix. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee* The Milwaukee Bucks rested Giannis and Jrue Holiday on Saturday. They should be back in this game. In fact, Jim Owczarski who covers the Bucks tweeted that Holiday and Giannis are both off the Bucks injury report as of Sunday night. This appears to be the first game where Khris Middleton, Giannis, and Jrue Holiday will all start together. The Bucks are finally getting healthier.

Orlando doesn't have much depth at all. The Magic are also without Suggs, Carter, Harris, and Bamba right now due to injury. The Magic have been terrible of late. Orlando has won just one of their last ten games. They have lost five of those games by 13 points or more. That includes a 17 point home loss to the Hawks and a 30 point home loss to the 76ers.

The Bucks are still the best team in the East. I like them to cruise to a big win here.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bulls* The Bulls have had two days of rest coming into this game. The Pelicans have zero days of rest. New Orleans is also playing its 5th game in 7 days. 

Zion Williamson will miss this game with an injury. Williamson is such a key to the upside for this New Orleans team. 

New Orleans just went to Chicago and won last week. The Bulls are now the healthier team and much better rested team. The script is flipped from last week. Situationally, this is a really good spot for the Bulls.

Take Chicago. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing like the best team in the NBA so far this year. This is a team led by arguably the best player in the NBA in Giannis. They have some great pieces around him too. I like their identity as a defensive minded team that takes care of the basketball.

Milwaukee is coming off their first loss of the season. They were thumped by the Hawks in Atlanta on Monday. They had a day off and now look to bounce back against a Thunder team that plays hard, but they are badly outmanned here. 

This has been a good angle in the NBA in the past- taking good teams off blowout losses. The Bucks have been great in this spot in the past.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Celtics* The Cleveland Cavaliers are a good team. Cleveland should have a nice season. They are still at a talent disadvantage when they take on the Boston Celtics. Cleveland is expected to be without Darius Garland again in this game. Garland is a key loss for this group.

Boston led most of the way, but blew it and lost in overtime at home to Cleveland just a few days ago. The Celtics are back and looking for some road revenge here. Grant Williams is back in the lineup for the Celtics and his presence will help.

The Celtics have been road warriors in recent seasons, and we should get full effort from Boston in this situational spot.

Take Boston. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to win the NBA Championship this year. The Bucks come into this game extremely well rested with their last game being on Saturday. Milwaukee's roster is put together in a way where I really don't see any significant weaknesses. The Bucks have the best player in the NBA now in Giannis. They also have great outside shooters to surround him. Milwaukee has great individual defenders too. 

The Brooklyn Nets have star power, but that is all. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant both scored 37 points in their last game against Memphis, and the Nets still lost by 10 points! Brooklyn's defense will be one of the worst in the NBA. Milwaukee moves the ball very well, and I expect them to have very little trouble putting up a big number on the Nets.

I'm going to lay the short number on the better team at home.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Portland Blazers are coming off a win over the Los Angeles Lakers in LA on Sunday. They return home on no rest to take on the Denver Nuggets. Denver had the day off Sunday after winning over Oklahoma City on Saturday.

The Blazers don't have nearly as much talent as the Nuggets. Damian Lillard and company are 3-0 straight up and ATS coming into this one, but I think now is a good time to sell high. Lillard is excellent, but he doesn't have enough scoring help on this team in the long run.

Portland is in a bad spot after beating the Lakers yesterday as well.

Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Portland. 

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play on Nuggets* The Utah Jazz went out of their way to get worse in the offseason. They got rid of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and even Bojan Bogdonavic. Mike Conley is the only big name left on the roster, and he isn't really a "scorer" by nature. He doesn't have many guys to set up anymore.

The Denver Nuggets are set to have a big season with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back healthy once again. Nikola Jokic is a superstar, and now he has help once again. Bruce Brown was a really solid add for Denver in the offseason. Jeff Green still provides some good minutes and is very versatile.

There is a huge talent gap in this one and I think the Nuggets will be anxious to get things tipped off the right way here.

Take Denver. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Golden State Warriors are extremely well rested coming into this game. Boston has had a few days to rest now too, but they are coming off two straight very hard fought 7 game series against the Bucks and then the Heat. 

Boston is a really good team and I expect this to be a highly competitive series, but I think this is a tough spot for them. Well rested home teams in the NBA playoffs (4 days or more of rest between games) are 112-68 ATS since 2006. Golden State is in that spot here.

Boston played a very poor game in game one against Miami after their 7 game series with Milwaukee. 

Golden State is the veteran team here and while Boston's defense gets a lot of credit (they are great), this Golden State defense is excellent as well.

I'll lay the points here with the Warriors.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Warriors* The Memphis Grizzlies are a good team. Memphis is still coming off a very hard fought series where they won their first playoff series in nine years though. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves played hard and were a tricky matchup for Memphis, but the Golden State Warriors are on a whole different level. Minnesota blew double digit leads in all but one of Memphis' wins in the first round series. I wouldn't expect that type of thing to happen with Golden State.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole form a great nucleus for the Warriors. Golden State is willing to win games with three point shooting or with their strong defense.

Memphis has less than 48 hours between games here, while Golden State had a lot of time to rest up and prepare for this one. 

I like the veteran Warriors to come out ready to go in game one.

Take Golden State. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Chicago Bulls deserve credit for going on the road and winning game two. Still, I think Milwaukee was ill prepared for that game. The Bucks seemed to be going through the motions for much of that game. Milwaukee isn't likely to do the same in this one.

Middleton is a key loss for the Bucks, but Milwaukee is still one of the deepest teams in the NBA. The Bucks bench played terribly in game two, but on the whole this is an excellent bench. The Bucks are likely to have a much better intensity on defense for this game. 

This is still the same Chicago Bulls team that has been getting beaten up on by the good teams late in the season. In fact, Chicago is now 23-49 ATS in their last 72 as a home underdog. The Bulls have regularly been blown out by the best teams in the league. They will up against a highly motivated Milwaukee Bucks team here. 

Brook Lopez has played well lately, and I think he will serve as a solid second option to Giannis. Jrue Holiday has shot the ball poorly, but he is likely to improve through the rest of the series too.

Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Chicago.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Philadelphia 76ers are a good team, but I don't think they are worthy of laying this many points against a really well coached Toronto Raptors team. Does Philadelphia have more talent than Toronto. Yes. Harden is clearly past his prime though, and there will be a lot of pressure on Joel Embiid to dominate against a good defensive frontcourt of Toronto.

These two teams played four times this year. Toronto covered all four times. The Raptors won 3 of the 4 meetings. 

I view Nick Nurse as one of the two or three best coaches in the NBA today. Doc Rivers is one of the bottom ten coaches in the NBA. 

Look for this game to be tight all the way. I'll grab the points.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Thunder* This isn't a fun bet to make, but I think it is the right one. The Utah Jazz clinched a playoff spot last night. No rest for this one against the lowly Thunder. If you are going to rest anyone or overlook a game, this is the spot.

Oklahoma City has quietly been a covering machine on the road as an underdog. They are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 as a road underdog. 

How about the Jazz as a big favorite? Utah is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by 10 points or more.

The Thunder have young players who are working hard to try to make an NBA team next year. The Jazz want to win this game, but they don't have a lot of motivation to run up the score here. 

I'll grab the points with Oklahoma City.

Take the Thunder. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Philadelphia 76ers are playing their third game in four days. They just played last night and lost a tough one to the Toronto Raptors. The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playing on zero days of rest.

Philadelphia is up against a Miami team playing with a lot of confidence. The Heat also get Jimmy Butler back. Caleb Martin is probable to return here too.

The 76ers have a banged up Embiid which really limits their upside.

Miami is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Heat are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings against the 76ers.

The scheduling spot is a really tough one for the 76ers. 

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Hornets* The Charlotte Hornets will play against a very shorthanded New Orleans Pelicans team here. C.J. McCollum has been their go to guy in recent weeks, but he is now out due to COVID protocols. Brandon Ingram is out with an injury as well.

At this point, New Orleans is left with Herb Jones, Devonte Graham, and Tony Snell as their top options in the backcourt. 

Charlotte isn't good defensively, but the Hornets can score in bunches. They have a much more talented team than New Orleans. The Hornets have Ball, Bridges, and Rozier as great options.

This Pelicans team has played decent of late, but without McCollum and Ingram I don't think they can keep up.

Take the Hornets. 

*3 Star Play on Kings* The Sacramento Kings catch the New York Knicks in a bad spot here. The Knicks are playing their 4th road game in the past six days. New York is coming off their best performance in quite a while. They blasted the Clippers last night in LA. The Knicks are still a subpar team though and they are unlikely to put two great efforts together back to back. 

The Kings have been much more competitive of late, and they are certainly better on their home court. Domantas Sabonis is a great addition for Sacramento.

Look for Sacramento to win and cover here.

Take the Kings. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. 

Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. 

Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton.

Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Miami* The New York Knicks are in a bad spot as far as team chemistry and motivation right now. Kemba Walker will miss the rest of the season. We don't know how much longer Thibodeau will be the head coach here. The team seems to be heading in the wrong direction quickly.

Miami got the break to rest up and get a little healthier. The Heat have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry all healthy and ready to go. The Heat are very good defensively with this roster, and they take good care of the basketball as well.

Fundamentally, this is a mismatch between these two teams. I like the Heat to take care of business here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last ten games, the Celtics are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing 0.954 points per possession. The second best team in the league is allowing 1.058 points per possession in that ten game span. That kind of a difference between first and second is almost unheard of in the NBA.

The 76ers are 5th in the NBA in the last ten games in defensive efficiency. The 76ers are just as good defensively now as they were before the trade deadline. They did lose a couple key pieces on offense though, and Harden isn't on the floor yet thanks to an injury.

These two teams both rate in the middle of the league in offensive stats in the last ten games. This should be a defensive battle.

Boston ranks as slightly slower than average in tempo, while the 76ers rank 28th out of 30 in the league in tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets will likely be without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. It isn't just the big three missing, but also Joe Harris and LaMarcus Aldridge. It will be Patty Mills stepping into big minutes and taking a bunch of shots here. The Nets are without all kinds of top playmakers on offense. They are also up against a Boston defense that is playing well. It would be hard to expect too much from the Nets offensively in this game.

How good is the Boston defense playing? In the past ten games, Boston is allowing 0.985 points per possession. That is first in the NBA. No one else in the NBA is allowing less than 1.065 points per possession. That's some terrific defense by the Celtics.

Boston also ranks 22nd in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Boston has been winning with defense and slowing the game down. The Nets are 19th in tempo during that time span. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off an overtime loss in Philadelphia. That was a game they probably should have won. They had a day off to think about it and now they try to get back on track against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. 

Good teams coming off a loss has been a good angle in the NBA for quite a while now. Ja Morant is the leader of this Memphis team, and I definitely consider Morant and the Grizzlies to be an on the rise franchise.

Memphis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 coming off a straight up loss. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 coming off an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A combined 14-0 angle.

The Knicks are a mediocre team with a much lower upside than the Grizzlies. I think we get a max effort game from Memphis here.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota* Minnesota is a much improved team. The Timberwolves have been feisty against top teams all season.

Phoenix is a really good team, but the market appears to be overvaluing them especially in this situation. The Suns are coming off back to back wins over the Jazz in massive games that were close until the end. 

Phoenix is banged up right now. DeAndre Ayton is out of the lineup. Jae Crowder is out of the lineup. Javale McGee is out of the lineup. Cam Payne is questionable for this game as well.

Phoenix hasn't been covering as home favorites, and this is a big spread against a quality Minnesota team. I'll take the points here.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have played at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Boston has seen 13 of its last 17 games stay under this total in regulation. They have played some low scoring finals even in overtime. Boston is playing strong defense. They rank 7th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

Boston lists Marcus Smart as probable for this game. Smart is a great defender and often when coming back from a long break players can struggle offensively. 

Washington is the higher scoring team of these two, but the Wizards have had several contests with very high scoring and fast paced teams of late. That has skewed this total higher. Here, they are up against a different opponent who prefers the halfcourt and lower scoring game.

Sunday early game unders have been great especially in conference games in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have been a very consistently slow paced team with low scoring games of late. Boston ranks second to last in the NBA in pace of play in their last 11 games. In those 11 games, Boston only has had three games go over this total in regulation (one stayed under even with an OT). 

The Celtics rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 11 games. Boston ranks 19th in offensive efficiency in that period. 

New Orleans is 15th in the league in tempo in that period. They are middle of the pack in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

These MLK Day early games have stayed under the total at a high rate in the past decade. The earliest start time games in general have been good under wagers.

I think the tempo is slow here and barring very high offensive efficiency, I think this one stays under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Dallas* The Dallas Mavericks rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Dallas is unbeaten since Luka Doncic came back in the lineup on January 2nd. That includes blowout wins over both Golden State and Chicago. This Mavericks team has a high upside and right now they are playing extremely well.

The New York Knicks have been much more inconsistent of late. The Knicks were blown away by the Celtics, Thunder, and Raptors in three of their last five games. New York's offense has been struggling, and against this Mavericks defense I'm not sure they can be very efficient here either.

I'll take the small road favorite playing at this level.

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Rockets defense has been the worst in the NBA in the last ten games, and it isn't very close. Houston is giving up a whopping 1.238 points per possession. No one else is giving up more than 1.208. 

Houston is playing fast as well. The Rockets are 10th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. In their last five games, Houston ranks third in the league in tempo. Their offense has been middle of the pack, which is much improved from earlier this season.

Washington ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games played. The Wizards have allowed 117 points or more in seven of their last nine games. 

Houston has allowed 120 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The other game they allowed 118 points. 

Look for a high scoring fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Raptors* The Clippers are down both superstars. Kawhi Leonard has been out long term, but Paul George had been the steadying force for Los Angeles. George was averaging 25 points per game this year, but he is out with an injury now. Reggie Jackson is questionable here and is said to be having conditioning problems so he is less than 100 percent no matter what.

The Clippers had gotten solid contributions from Brandon Boston Jr. and Ivica Zubac, but of them are out due to COVID 19 protocols now.

Toronto has been severely shorthanded, but the Raptors have gotten their team back now. Pascal Siakim, Scottie Barnes, Fred Van Vleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are all ready to go. 

The Raptors aren't a great team, but they are better than their record. This version of the Clippers is a very weak team. This is a great opportunity for the Raptors to get back on track.

Take Toronto. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Los Angeles Lakers aren't playing good basketball right now. The Lakers without Anthony Davis are hurting quite a bit. Additionally, they are very short on depth with guys like Reaves, Bazemore, and Nunn out. 

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS against teams with a winning record this year. The Grizzlies are a bit shorthanded as well, but they are a deeper team. Memphis also has their star Ja Morant back. Morant is playing at a really high level right now. 

LeBron has been playing excellently and yet their team isn't having success. LeBron is logging massive minutes too. The Lakers had to push hard to get a win in Houston last night against a bad Rockets team. I don't think they'll be on their "A game" tonight.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are without 5 of their top 7 scorers in this game including star Trae Young. Atlanta has played two games without Young and in those two games they have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during that span. Atlanta lacks go to guys on the offensive end now. They have played two games where they failed to score 100 points. Those contests totaled 202 and 194 points.

The New York Knicks rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Knicks aren't going to be running and gunning in this one. 

Christmas Day unders have been a great betting angle in the NBA in the past decade. Early games on Christmas Day staying under has been an even stronger angle. This is an extremely early tipoff.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Phoenix Suns rank second best in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Oklahoma City isn't likely to score very many points against Phoenix in this one.

The Thunder have slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Oklahoma City is likely to try to keep this pace slower than the league average.

The Suns are only giving up 0.992 points per possession which is excellent defensively in their last five games. 

The day before Christmas Eve has been a good under day in the NBA in the long term.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bucks* The Milwaukee Bucks are the much superior team even without Giannis. The Bucks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. New Orleans is coming off a ridiculous buzzer beating win over Oklahoma City on the road. Milwaukee took care of business against Indiana.

The Pelicans are just 4-9 at home so far this year. New Orleans relies heavily on offensive rebounding, but the Bucks are a good defensive rebounding team even without Giannis. 

Milwaukee is the better coached team who I trust to show up on a game by game basis. The Pelicans have a couple nice wins, but they haven't consistently performed well.

Take Milwaukee here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the LA Lakers tonight. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game. 

Dallas ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. It isn't particularly close either. In fact, in their last two games without Doncic, the Mavericks played to a pace of just under 90 possessions per game. That's extremely slow.

The Lakers are middle of the pack in tempo. Los Angeles does rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Mavericks rank 7th. These two teams are both competing well on the defensive end.

Both Malik Monk and Talen Horton Tucker are likely out here for the Lakers and those guys are good offensive options.

The referee crew is a positive as well. Brian Forte is 54.9% unders in his games as a ref (more than 800 games) and James Williams is at 52% unders in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday at noon eastern. This is an early Sunday tipoff, and these early tips on Sunday have been good under plays in the past decade. Sunday is the best day for unders in the NBA long term by a wide margin, and the early games have been even better for the under. 

The New York Knicks tempo is second slowest in the NBA in the last ten games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Milwaukee is playing fairly quick, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago.

These two teams have met twice this year. The posted totals were 216.5 and 216. Both of those games went under the total. One of the unders was a game where the Bucks nailed a whopping 26 three pointers. The pace has been slow in the first two matchups.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a scorching hot shooting performance. Atlanta made 25/49 3 point field goal attempts in their win. That was the most made three-pointers on record for the Atlanta Hawks franchise. 

The Brooklyn Nets have been much better on defense this year. The primary improvement from them has been their 3 point defense. In fact, the Nets are number one in the NBA in 3 point defense. It isn't even close. The Nets are holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3 point range. No other team in the NBA is allowing less than 32.1% from beyond the arc.

These two teams are both about average in pace in the league. This is a really high total in this year's scoring environment in the NBA.

The Nets have had six straight games finish at 220 points or lower. Recency bias has this number very high because the Hawks have been on fire from three.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Cavs* The Cleveland Cavs catch the Chicago Bulls at the right time here. The Bulls are shorthanded due to injuries and illnesses. Chicago is a very good team this year, but they are going to be at much less than full strength here.

Demar DeRozan has scored at least 28 points in each of the last four games for the Bulls. He has been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this year. He will miss this game along with Coby White due to COVID. Alex Caruso is also out. These three guys rank as the top three players in defensive efficiency ratings for the Bulls on the season too (among those averaging 15 minutes per game or more). 

The Cavs have a great frontcourt led by Mobley. Markannen should be anxious to play against his old team as well. Cleveland has been a covering machine this season. They are coming off a couple tough losses, and they should be excited to try to bounce back here against a Bulls team that comes into this one banged up badly.

Take Cleveland. 

*3 Star Play on Heat* The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant here. They've done well without him so far, but he is clearly a huge loss for this team. Kyle Anderson is out as well and Brandon Clarke is doubtful here also. 

Jimmy Butler is expected to return for the Heat tonight. With Morant out and Butler likely back in, the Heat have the much more talented team. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro should play a big role from the outside in this game.

Miami is the best team Memphis has had to play without Morant. The Grizzlies have to be feeling pretty good about themselves with their win streak. Miami has played subpar of late, and I think they circle the wagons here.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play on the Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks are the team with the much higher upside of these two teams. Atlanta has underachieved so far this season. The Hawks have won 7 of their last 8 games including winning their last two road games. 

Indiana is without Justin Holiday and Myles Turner is questionable with an illness. Holiday has been a nice contributor for the Pacers, and Turner is arguably the team's most important player. I like this bet even if Turner does play, but if he doesn't play this wager holds even more value.

Trae Young is a really streaky scorer, and he has been on fire. I don't see anyone on the Pacers roster that matches up well defensively against him.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have been excellent defensively. In fact, in their last 8 games, the Warriors and Clippers rank #1 and #2 in defensive efficiency. These are two well coached defensive teams.

The Warriors and Clippers rank 15th and 16th in tempo in the last 8 games as well, so their pace isn't blazing fast by any means. 

This is an early tipoff on the West Coast and these weekend early tip offs on the West Coast have been very good unders in the past decade. 

Both of these teams are subpar when it comes to creating second chances. I think their initial shots will be covered better than normal in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Detroit Pistons in a strange early Friday afternoon tilt on the West Coast. 

The teams were off for Thanksgiving, but they'll be back at it early on Friday. Early games have been good under bets in the NBA in the past, and early games on the West Coast have been even better. 

Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They rank second worst in offensive efficiency. The Clippers rank second best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Detroit should have trouble scoring in this one.

The Clippers have shown they are willing to let off the gas when playing with a lead late, and they are clearly favorites in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Grizzlies* The Memphis Grizzlies were absolutely blown out by the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game. Memphis' coach let the team know he wasn't impressed with their effort in that contest. Memphis does have a lot of guys on their team that are battlers and I would expect them to fight back in this spot. The Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 following a double digit loss.

Memphis is playing against the Jazz who eliminated them from the playoffs last year. If they can't get up for a game like this- who could get they get up for playing?

In general in the NBA bounce back systems do very well ATS especially following massive blowouts. 

We're getting a few too many points because of the recency of both teams.

Take Memphis. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons offense is one of the weakest in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have slowed down their tempo in recent games. Indiana ranks 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. The Pacers have been an under machine of late.

Detroit has shown that they typically play a game to the preferred tempo of their opponent. That is common for a weak and young team like the Pistons. 

Detroit has scored 91 points or less in four of their last eight games overall.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley Beal will miss this game following the death of his grandmother. Beal is clearly the best offensive player on this Washington team and the offense runs through him. Last year, Beal had one of the highest offensive player ratings, but he also had one of the worst defensive player ratings. 

The Wizards defense has been one of the best in the NBA of late. In fact, in their last three games, the Wizards have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. 

Orlando is averaging just 0.96 points per possession on their home floor this year. The Magic just don't have enough good scoring options especially when they are taking on a talented defense. Wes Unseld Jr. has the Wizards working really hard on the defensive end. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo. This is a divisional matchup and those are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have improved a bunch on the defensive end. It's the number one reason this team has been so successful this season. The team made a lot of transactions in the offseason, and that has led to defense being prioritized much more by the current starters for Chicago.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very slow with their tempo this year. Dallas ranks 24th in pace of play this season. Chicago is a slightly below average 17th in tempo. 

Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

We have seen the way officials are calling the game in the NBA this year and how it has helped the under. The new basketball likely plays a role as well.

In this year's NBA, this is a pretty high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tobias Harris in this one. Harris was averaging 19.8 points per game. They'll also be without long range shooter Danny Green. Joel Embiid will be back for this contest.

The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo this year, and it isn't even close. They have really slowed their pace down a lot this season. The Bulls rank 20th in tempo, so they are slower than an average team as well.

The Bulls are 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The 76ers are a solid 14th. Both of these defenses tend to put up a pretty good fight. 

Brian Forte and Scott Twardowski are two of the best "under" officials in the NBA. Both of them have seen more than 54% of their games all time stay under the total. Both are officiating this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Hawks* The Atlanta Hawks were beaten badly by the Washington Wizards just a few days ago. Washington coasted to an 11 point win in a game where Atlanta was favored by four points in Washington.

Here's a chance less than a week later for Atlanta to get revenge. These quick revenge games have done well in the NBA, especially early in the season.

The Hawks still have a very high upside. They have been inconsistent so far this year, but I'm still high on this team overall. They finished last year well and on paper this year's team is better than a year ago.

Look for a strong effort in a good situational spot for the Hawks here.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Blazers* The LA Clippers throttled the Blazers on Monday night. The Clippers won 116-86. Portland turned the ball over 30 times. That is just unreal for an NBA team. Portland's players and the coaching staff talked in depth about how much that loss bothered them. What's the good news? They get a chance for revenge in the same week. This time it will be in Portland too, where the Blazers have a big home court advantage.

The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard. They are still a talented team, but their upside is much lower. Portland is coming off an impressive beatdown of the Memphis Grizzlies. Portland's defense looks much better so far this year under Chauncey Billups. 

A chance for quick revenge against a shorthanded Clippers team is an opportunity Portland badly wants to take advantage of.

Lay the points here.

Take Portland. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a very high total, but it is very high for a good reason. Portland is easily playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Damian Lillard has shot the ball terribly so far this season. How bad? Lillard is shooting 8% from 3 point range. He is shooting just 36% overall. The Blazers have still had 2 of their 3 games go over this posted total. 

Memphis has played 3 games and their lowest scoring game finished at 234 points. The other two were 239 and 253 points. The Grizzlies have a great offense and arguably their best defender, Dillon Brooks, is out with an injury. 

The Blazers are coming off a very low scoring output on a terrible shooting night. The Clippers are far better defensively than the Grizzlies though. Betting the over in the next game after a team has gone way under has been a profitable strategy in the NBA as well.

The pace will be there. I think more shots will fall as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play on Miami* The Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. I like the additions Miami made in the offseason. Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker are excellent additions to the team. 

The Bucks will be playing without Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday in this one. Holiday is an elite defender and the Bucks will miss him quite a bit.

Milwaukee is coming off a big win over the Nets. Miami is in their season opener here. The Heat are healthier and I like the spot for them.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Cash* The Chicago Bulls have gotten much better in the offseason. The Bulls added DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic. Both of those guys are great scoring options to help out Zach LaVine. Lonzo Ball is a solid point guard for this group as well.

Detroit's Cade Cunningham will be a lot of fun to watch, but he isn't expected to play in this game. The Pistons just don't have the top end talent to match the Bulls. Detroit will have one of the worst records in basketball this year. Their best player is likely to be Cade Cunningham, and he'll be on the sidelines here.

Chicago has too much firepower and I like them to cover the spread here.

Take the Bulls. 

*3 Star Play Under* If you had just been betting closeout game unders in the NBA playoffs over the past decade, you would have made a bunch of money. 

Game 5 was a very high scoring tight game between the Suns and Bucks. Both teams shot the ball exceptionally well. 

The pace started fast in the first couple games of this series and it has consistently gotten slower and slower as the series has went on. How did they score so many points in game five? Was it a faster pace? Nope. It was by far the slowest paced game in this NBA Finals so far. Milwaukee averaged a ridiculous 1.352 points per possession. Phoenix averaged a very high 1.293 points per possession. 

Phoenix needs this game to stay alive. Their coach called them out for their defensive performance in game five. They should give a lot of effort on that end here. Milwaukee has the length to bother Phoenix. The Bucks have several very good individual defenders.

As the games get more crucial the pace tends to slow down. That has happened thus far in this series. If we get a pace like the last couple games, it takes a shooting performance far above season averages to get to this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Milwaukee Bucks* The Phoenix Suns won the first two games at home in this series. Now, it is the Bucks turn to answer. Milwaukee saw some terrible shooting from Middleton and Holiday last game really slow them down. The Bucks are very capable of winning with decent outside shooting, and they have shown to shoot better at home through the season.

Phoenix is a good team and they deserve credit for their playoff performances. They have a good shot at winning the series. Still, I don't think it will be as easy as it has looked so far in this series. Milwaukee controls the paint in the series and the Suns aren't going to shoot 20/40 from 3 point range every game like they did last game.

Milwaukee has been a great team to back following a loss in the past couple seasons. The Bucks are up against it here. They have to win this game. It means a whole lot more to them than the Suns. 

Phoenix has a tremendous home court advantage, but now they take the show on the road. Giannis looks healthy and he should have another big game. I think the Bucks make this a tighter series.

Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are locked into a tight battle in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns are up 2-1, but they could easily be down 2-1. Their last second win in game two was huge. The Clippers though have shown they are more than comfortable coming from down 2-0 in a series. 

The Clippers really turned up the defense in game three in their win over Phoenix. They also slowed the pace of the game a bit. Phoenix's Devin Booker struggled on offense with his mask for a facial injury. Chris Paul looked very rusty after missing a lot of time in the covid protocol. 

Phoenix's Cameron Payne is banged up right now and he has been key to the Suns offense especially in pushing the pace in the past. 

The Clippers offense is too reliant on Paul George without Leonard healthy. The Suns do have some quality defensive players who can make George have to work hard at all times.

The average pace for the first three games has been 93.67 possessions. At that pace, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession and the game would still a few points under this total.

Take the under.