*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins are first in the ASun in defensive efficiency. Jacksonville is allowing only 0.927 points per possession in the league. They are blocking a crazy high 18% of shots taken by their opponent. Jacksonville is first in forced turnover rate in the league as well.

Jacksonville is 234th in average possession length on offense. They definitely prefer a slower tempo. Central Arkansas is 218th so they are a little on the slow side as well.

Central Arkansas is 337th out of 364 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bears have faced many of the worst defenses in the league thus far, and they still haven't been good on offense. Central Arkansas is 11th at defending without fouling.

Jacksonville sometimes fouls a bit too much on defense, but C Arkansas is outside the top 300 in getting to the line.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have drastically sped up their pace of play in the last few weeks. They played slower during the non-conference, but in MAC play they have wanted to get in fast paced high scoring games. They did the same thing last year when they started trending hard toward the over in the middle of the season.

Western Michigan has played 4 of their 5 fastest games in the last 2.5 weeks. The Broncos have allowed 83 points or more in three straight games. They are actually a little better on offense this year than they were last season. They are a bit worse on the defensive end. Western Michigan has been the best in the MAC at offensive rebounding and second chance points. Buffalo is terrible on the defensive boards.

Buffalo has allowed 88 points or more in four of their last six games. Buffalo had very high scoring games against Miami Ohio and Ohio in MAC play. Buffalo is playing quickly and they should be playing from behind and pushing the pace through this game.

Both teams are ranked outside the top 300 teams in defensive efficiency. I think the offenses look good here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is one where next to no one plays defense. In the last decade, over bettors have been cashing in big in this conference on the whole. 

Weber State has the worst ranked defense in a conference full of terrible defenses thus far this season. Weber State is a tall team, but they are terrible at stopping opponents near the hoop. They don't  block hardly any shots. Montana is aggressive taking the ball to the basket, and they should have success. 

Montana is first in the Big Sky so far in overall tempo. The Grizzlies are getting out and running more this season. 

Weber State has allowed 80 points or more in three of their last four games. On the other end, Weber State takes relatively good shots and they are second in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Siena Saints started the season out playing quite slowly. They have a new coach and are running a new offense. Now that they have the system down more, it is clear they are getting more comfortable with playing at a faster pace.

Siena's defense isn't very good. They have allowed 72 points or more in five straight games. The Saints have played three of their four fastest paced games in the last couple weeks. 

Sacred Heart is the quickest paced team in the conference so far this year. They are good at shooting it from long range and that matches up well with a Siena defense that is 307th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

Sacred Heart has been a really weak defense for several years in a row now. That is the same again this year. They have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses and still have very poor numbers.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are a taller team than a year ago. Coach Pecora talked about how he expected them to be better on defense and contest more shots at the rim this year. They have definitely done that so far this season. Quinnipiac is 39th in blocked shots percentage in the nation this season. Quinnipiac has done a good job of forcing turnovers, but not fouling very much.

Merrimack and Coach Gallo play a very unique matchup zone. The Warriors slow the game down with their pressure and force teams out of their comfort zone on offense. Merrimack has a very high forced turnover rate and the Warriors have been very good in the last few years at defending without fouling. 

Merrimack is new to the MAAC, and I think teams will struggle when they face them the first time with this unique pressing zone. This is the first time around for Quinnipiac.

Merrimack and Quinnipiac are 273rd and 307th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They struggle to get good looks on a regular basis.

Quinnipiac has played six straight games that have finished at 131 points or lower before overtime. Five of the six games have been 125 points or lower. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers aren't quite the same offensive team they were last year. Dalton Knecht was a superstar and he is really hard to replace on offense. The Volunteers rank a little bit better on defense this year though. The Vols have slowed their pace down again as well. 

Tennessee was 80th in the country in tempo last year. The Vols are 322nd in the country in tempo so far this season. They slowed down the pace against very fast paced teams in Illinois and Arkansas. 

Georgia has made some significant strides on defense this year. The Bulldogs held Ole Miss to 63 points recently. They also held Kentucky to 69 points in a fast paced game. Georgia is 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are just 71st in offensive efficiency.

Tennessee is 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Vols have been much better this year at not sending the opposition to the free throw line.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgetown Hoyas are 135th in shot selection on offense. They are 21st in the nation in shot selection allowed on defense. St. John's is 196th in shot selection on offense and 33rd in shot selection allowed on defense. St. John's is much better in the turnover battle, and they have been better on the boards as well. These are two solid defenses in general though.

Georgetown's Ed Cooley has been slowing the pace down in recent games. The Hoyas have played six straight games that have gone under this total.

St. John's is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Storm are 7th in the nation in shot blocking, and they are protecting the paint very well.

Madison Square Garden hosts this game. This is a very good under venue in college hoops. St. John's games at MSG have gone 41-23 to the under in the last 64 contests.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans have played a bit slow for the season as a whole, but in the past they have played quicker against MEAC opponents, and the early trend showing them doing this once again inside the league. 

Norfolk State has several big offensive advantages. They are great at getting to the free throw line. They also shoot 75.5% from the charity stripe. Norfolk State is 153rd in the country in second chance conversion percentage. Morgan State ranks in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling. Morgan State is 357th in second chance conversion percentage allowed. There should be plenty of second chance points. Norfolk State has been great in transition when they do run. They are 19th in transition offense efficiency and Morgan State is 346th in transition defense.

Morgan State pushes the pace to the extreme. They are 34th in the nation in tempo. They do get to the line a lot themselves as well, and Morgan State scored 82 on Norfolk State at home last year.

Morgan State has seen 11 straight games go over this posted total. I think this will be another.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have played 15 games so far this year. In 13 of those 15 games, the total points in the game has been 142 points or lower. That includes a streak of eight straight games of 142 points or lower.

Merrimack is playing in a new conference this year (MAAC). Merrimack's unique zone pressure can really give teams fits when they first see it. Merrimack's defensive stats inside the MAAC so far are excellent. Manhattan is unlikely to have a good game plan against this Joe Gallo zone defense.

Merrimack is 270th in offensive efficiency. They are also 321st in overall tempo, so they are playing very slowly. 

I like Merrimack to control the pace and their defense to keep this one lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are 8th in the country in tempo. They are playing at an extremely quick pace. They are also 352nd in defensive efficiency. Opponents are getting wide open threes off against this team at a ridiculous rate. 

St. Thomas is 16th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. They are scoring more than 40% of their points from beyond the arc. St. Thomas is 8th in effective field goal percentage offense. They should put up a big number on this terrible South Dakota defense.

South Dakota is sixth in the country in FTA/FGA and they  get a lot of second chance points. St. Thomas is poor on the defensive glass.

As high as this total is, South Dakota has seen 7 of their last 10 games against Division One opponents finish with 170 points or more.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats are 322nd in shot quality allowed so far this year. They are allowing opponents to shoot 39.8% from long range. 

Idaho State has a great offensive rebounding team as well. Idaho State is 6th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in second chance conversion percentage. Weber State is 240th and 233rd in those categories on defense.

On the other side, Weber State has several good offensive weapons. The Wildcats get to the free throw line at a pretty high rate, and Idaho State fouls a lot. 

The Big Sky Conference is an offensive minded league. There are not good defenses in this league. Over bettors have done very well in this league in the long run. That has especially been true with lower posted totals. This one fits the bill as a very low total for this league.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts and Bryant Bulldogs have met four times since Bryant joined the NEC. The final totals in those four contests: 138 points, 136 points, 124 points, and 113 points. 

Vermont is 349th in the country in tempo. The Catamounts are also the worst they have been in a long time on the offensive end. Vermont is is 327th in offensive efficiency. Vermont is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense though, and they can still defend without fouling and grab defensive boards at a good rate. 

Bryant is 45th in average possession length. They will try to push the pace here. I think it will be hard to do against Vermont unless they get up big early on. 

Vermont has played 15 games against Division One opponents this year. Only two have gone over this total and those were just 145 points and 146 points. The fact that 13 of 15 were below this and the highest game was 146 points total speaks volumes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 65th in shot selection allowed this year. Coastal Carolina has had a couple games where the defense was burned, but overall they have kept games very low scoring. Coastal Carolina is bottom six in the country in tempo. They should try hard to slow the pace down here.

Georgia State plays at an average pace, and they aren't efficient on offense. Georgia State is just 295th in offensive efficiency and 307th in effective field goal percentage offense. Georgia State is great at defending the 3 point line on defense, and Coastal Carolina takes a lot of shots from deep.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the consistency of the Appalachian State Mountaineers. They are great at slowing down the pace of the game, and their half court defense has been tremendous. App State has played six straight games that have finished under this total. The Mountaineers are 9th in the nation at defending without fouling. They are 23rd at three point field goal percentage defense.

James Madison is 306th in average possession length. App State is 341st in that same metric. This should be a very slow paced game.

James Madison has recently played a lot of faster paced teams, but now they are up against another slow paced team.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are great at slowing the pace of the game down. Austin Peay is 322nd in the country in tempo. They are also a dreadful 356th in effective field goal percentage offense. On defense, Austin Peay is decent, but they can get in trouble at times by fouling too much. Fortunately, West Georgia is a team that very rarely gets to the charity stripe. In fact, West Georgia is bottom 15 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

West Georgia has slowed their pace down as the season has gone along. They have also played to the pace of their opponent more often than not. West Georgia has played a much tougher slate of opposing offenses than defenses so far. West Georgia was held to 62 points by a terrible Stetson defense. They also only scored 54 points against GA Southern this season.

I like Austin Peay to control the pace in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Florida Ospreys have one of the worst defenses in the country. North Florida has given up 99, 97, and 96 points in their last three games. North Florida also allowed 95 points against UNC Asheville and 103 points against Nebraska. The Ospreys are very bad defensively to begin with, and they are also 347th out of 364 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving the opposition loads of second chance points.

North Florida is 18th in the country in tempo. The Ospreys don't turn the ball over and they are capable of putting up a big number.

Eastern Kentucky likes to press and use unique defenses. Eastern Kentucky is 343rd in second chance conversion percentage allowed. Both offenses have big edges when it comes to second chance points here. Eastern Kentucky started the season playing a bit slower, but they have sped things up of late. Here is a great chance for them to run! 

North Florida has allowed 93 points or more in five of their last six games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots are 277th in the nation in tempo. Richmond is 303rd in average possession length. These are two teams who prefer to play in the halfcourt, and I expect this to be a slow paced contest. The two meetings between them last year were 63 possessions and 60 possessions. 

George Mason and Richmond have both slowed down considerably in their Atlantic 10 Conference games. Both have used about two seconds more per possession than they did in the non-conference portion of their schedule. In the early going in the A10, these are second and third ranked defenses as well.

George Mason has done a great job protecting the paint this year. Opponents have had to knock down long range jumpers to beat this defense. Richmond is 28.5% from 3 point range so far this season. 

The Richmond defense is very good at not giving up second chance points, and George Mason has relied heavily on those this season.

Unless these teams shoot far better than their season averages, I think this is a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bucknell Bison are the #1 rated defense in the Patriot League through the first couple games. Lafayette is ranked second in defense. Last year, these teams were second and third in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Bucknell and Lafayette played a game to 128 in regulation early last year and then played a game to just 110 points and 60 possessions late in the season.

John Griffin's Bucknell teams have been good at defending the 3 point line, and Lafayette takes a bunch of long range jumpers. Bucknell offensively is terrible from the free throw line and they turn the ball over at a very high rate. 

Lafayette is 318th in offensive efficiency. The Leopards have faced one of the easiest slate of defenses in the country and yet they have still struggled to score.

Bucknell has seen 8 of their last 14 games finish regulation with 129 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have played five games against teams in KenPom's top 100 so far this year. The final totals in all five of those games have been 139 or lower. That includes games against fast paced teams like Kansas State, Arizona, and Xavier.

Cincinnati is 7th in the nation in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Bearcats are a tall team with a lot of shot blockers. 

On the offensive end, Cincinnati is just 62nd in offensive efficiency. They are bottom 25 in the country in FTA/FGA, so they very rarely get to the line.

Baylor is 258th in the country in tempo. They prefer a slow pace of game. Cincinnati is 261st in the country in tempo.

Baylor is still good offensively, but they aren't the amazing offense they were a year ago. The Bears are a good amount better on defense than they were a year ago. 

These two teams played twice last year when both were higher scoring and the final totals were 121 points and 124 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been amazing at turning games into slogfests with very low possession totals and low scoring.

Fairleigh Dickinson is a fast paced team who plays poor defense, but there were the same last year. Wagner was better offensively last year than they are this year. Both of the meetings between these two last year stayed well under this total, and it was Wagner that set the tempo in those two games.

Wagner is 362nd in the nation in tempo. They only put up 52 points against a terrible Chicago State team in their last game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are always excellent on defense under Coach Russell Turner. They are great on defense again this year. UC Irvine is 18th in defensive efficiency out of 364 teams in the country. UC Irvine is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding and 2nd in the nation in defending without fouling.

UC Riverside relies heavily on second chance opportunities on offense, and I don't think they'll be able to get them against this UC Irvine defense. The Highlanders are 270th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames rank sixth best in the nation in shot selection allowed. Liberty is also excellent on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. 

Liberty is 347th in overall tempo. Ritchie McKay is a really good coach, and Liberty has consistently been a team for many years that is excellent at dictating the tempo.

MTSU has sped up a bit this year, but they have played quite a few opponents who like to run. The Blue Raiders are top 40 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. MTSU is up against a Liberty offense here who relies heavily on long range jumpers.

Both of these teams have played opponents who are better on offense than defense so far this year. 

Now, Liberty gets a game with a pretty high total, and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss. I like Liberty to slow this game down and show up with a great defensive effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Little Rock Trojans are a completely different team than they have been in the past few years. Little Rock's coaching staff sought to change the culture by bringing in some big men who can control the paint and block a bunch of shots. Little Rock is actually first in the nation in blocked shots percentage on defense. They are blocking 19.9% of shots put up against them. Little Rock is up against a Tennessee State team that shoots it very poorly from outside, and they try to get to the basket as much as possible.

The Little Rock offense is 322nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State has had trouble at times with fouling too much on defense, but Little Rock hasn't been good at getting to the charity stripe.

I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* For many years now, the Big Sky Conference has been a league where offenses have ruled the day. The defenses are very weak, and I think that will be the case again this year. In the last ten years, just blindly betting overs in the Big Sky has been a very good strategy, especially when the numbers are relatively low on the total. This is one of those games.

These teams don't play particularly fast, but they are both very bad on defense. Weber State is 288th in defensive efficiency and Northern Arizona is 318th in defensive efficiency. 

Northern Arizona has scored at least 76 points in five of their last six games. The Lumberjacks put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Weber State is 356th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. They are also bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA allowed so they are fouling at a high clip.

Weber State's offense should get good looks from deep too. Northern Arizona is 350th in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are a sneaky good team this year. Arkansas State is 65th in tempo, and I trust them to push the pace in this game. Arkansas State's offense has been on a great run of late. They have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

James Madison is a slower paced team at 257th, but they are better on offense than defense. James Madison is excellent on the offensive boards, and the biggest weakness of the Arkansas State defense is giving up second chance points and fouling too often.

Arkansas State is great at getting to the line and they have played much better defenses than offenses so far this year. The Red Wolves 3 point defense has been a weakness the last couple years and I think opponents will improve from long range against them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are coming off a very rare high scoring performance. They put up a big number against North Florida, who has one of the worst defenses in the country. Now, Austin Peay goes back to playing against a quality defense in Jacksonville. 

Last year, Jacksonville beat Austin Peay 63-43 in a game that was played to a ridiculously slow pace of just 54 possessions.

Jacksonville has a bunch of shot blockers and Austin Peay is one of the shortest teams in the country. Austin Peay has had major trouble with getting shots blocked this year. I think it happens again in this one. 

Jacksonville has turned it over on nearly 23% of their offensive possessions. The Dolphins waste a bunch of possessions and play at a slow pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been making a living at the free throw line so far this year. The AAC has consistently been a conference over the last few years where the refs call the game very tightly. Florida Atlantic is top 100 in FTA/FGA as well, and I think both teams could get to the charity stripe a bunch in this one. 

Florida Atlantic is 23rd in the country in overall tempo. The Owls are really playing at an ultra fast pace. They are also much better on offense than defense. Florida Atlantic is 47th in offensive efficiency,  but they are only 176th in defensive efficiency. 

Memphis is shooting better than 40% from 3 point range, and Florida Atlantic is 357th out of 364 teams in the country in 3 point defense.

Both of these teams have had some really high scoring games when facing other teams who are willing to run. They have a partner for a track meet here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and App State Mountaineeers know each other well. They have consistently played low scoring games against each other. Scott Cross and Dustin Kerns are both very good coaches, and their defenses have had the upper hand in these matchups time after time.

Five straight games in this series have finished with 128 points or fewer. Interestingly, these two teams are both playing far slower than they did a year ago as well. Troy was 67th in the country in tempo last year, but they are 235th this season. App State was 213th last year and they are 325th so far this year. 

These two teams have been great at defending without fouling. They are 19th and 21st in FTA/FGA on defense. 

The two offenses are both outside the top 300 in the country in taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of dead ball turnovers that stall this game out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wofford Terriers host the UNC Greensboro Spartans on Wednesday at noon eastern. This is an interesting early tipoff on New Year's Day. Both of these teams play at an extremely slow tempo to start with. I do wonder if things might be a little bit sloppy in this game too. 

These two teams are 333rd and 336th in overall tempo. The game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. These two teams are 293rd and 357th in FTA/FGA so I wouldn't expect very many trips to the charity stripe in this one either. 

Wofford takes a lot of shots from long range, but UNC Greensboro is allowing just 28% from 3 point range so far this year. UNC Greensboro relies on second chance points, but Wofford is above average on the defensive glass.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs fell 65-62 to UCLA this past weekend. UCLA is a really good defensive team under Mick Cronin. Gonzaga goes from taking on that rough defense to facing a Pepperdine defense that just gave up 91 points to Santa Clara and allowed 94 points against UC San Diego earlier this year.

Pepperdine has played a very weak slate of opposing offenses. The Waves have still struggled when they have played up against the better offenses. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo more recently. 

Gonzaga is 4th in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are 26th fastest in average possession length. Gonzaga put up 113 against UMass Lowell. They scored 102 against Nicholls. They are capable of putting up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have been without Gabriel Pozzato in their last two games. He has a lower back injury and is questionable for this game. Without Pozzato, they have scored 54 points against UT Arlington and 43 points against Ball State. Neither of those teams are very good defensively.

Missouri State is a defensive-minded team under Cuonzo Martin. Missouri State's defensive numbers are skewed this year because they have played the 74th toughest slate of offenses so far this season according to KenPom. They have played the 289th toughest slate of defenses, so their offensive numbers are likely to drop.

Missouri State is 288th in overall tempo. Evansville is 201st in overall tempo. The best way to beat Missouri State's defense is to shoot it from long range. Evansville is 26% from 3 point range on the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have played 12 games this year. They have only played two games that have finished higher than 141 points. Minnesota has been content to slow the game down and win lower scoring games even against weak teams like Fairleigh Dickinson and Oral Roberts. 

Morgan State is very weak. They like to push the pace. Morgan State has really only played one good defense (Iowa State- but they play at a very quick tempo) so far this year. Morgan State shoots a ton of mid range jumpers, and Minnesota is very good at defending that shot.

Minnesota should have control of this game and I think they will take the air out of the ball here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both Pepperdine and Santa Clara play at an above average tempo. These teams are happy to be in transition and looking to get up shots early in the shot clock. 

Santa Clara ranks 17th in the country in shot selection on offense. Sendek's teams have really gotten a name for running innovative offensive sets in the last few years. Santa Clara is only 245th in shot selection allowed though. There are often chances to score on them.

Pepperdine has scored 76 points or more in four straight games. The Waves have improved a lot on the offensive end in recent weeks. Pepperdine's defensive numbers are held up by the extremely soft schedule they have played. I think this is a below average defensive team. They allowed 94 points to UC San Diego. They gave up 80 points to both UNLV and UC Irvine.

I think this one is a fast paced game where the offenses get plenty of good looks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans and Elon Phoenix both prefer to play at a very slow pace. There's no reason to expect anything other than a half court slow paced contest.

Elon is 285th in overall pace. UNC Greensboro is 331st in overall pace. Both of these teams have seen 5 of their 9 games against Division I opponents stay under this total. Now, they are up against another extremely slow paced opponent.

Elon's 7'4 Matthew Van Komen is a shot blocking machine and he has completely changed the way the Elon defense looks. This is no longer a weak defense that lets everyone get to the hoop like they did last season.

UNC Greensboro and Elon are both great at defending without fouling. Both teams have faced far better opposing offenses than defenses so far this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are one of the best over teams in the country. They are 354th in defensive efficiency. They have played a very easy slate of opposing offenses, and yet they have allowed opponents to score 92 points or more in 5 of their 12 games against Division I opponents. 

South Dakota plays at the 6th fastest tempo of anyone in the country. South Dakota is also great at taking care of the basketball. They are 89th in offensive efficiency. They get to the line at a very high rate, and South Dakota is up against a Santa Clara team that does foul a lot.

Santa Clara has wanted to play quick most of the years under Herb Sendek. They have played a track meet pace against Fresno State and Kennesaw State (both much worse at offense than South Dakota). I think Santa Clara will play quickly here too. Santa Clara gets very high quality shots (17th best in the country according to Shot Quality). They should get loads of second chance opportunities here too against a South Dakota team that is awful on the defensive boards.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins know what they need to do here. They don't want to play North Carolina's fast pace style and get into a shootout. UCLA just won a 57-54 contest against Arizona last week. The Wildcats play very quick, but UCLA frustrated them with excellent defense and a slow tempo. They should have a plan to try to do the same thing here. 

North Carolina has played a bunch of high powered offenses this year. I think the Tar Heels defense is better than their overall numbers appear right now. North Carolina has played Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, and Florida. While UCLA is a good team, the Bruins are only decent on offense. They are 73rd in efficiency on offense and are outside the top 200 in shot selection.

Madison Square Garden has been consistently the best under venue in college hoops. The long term ATS record for the under in NCAA BB games played here has been top notch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts offense is way down this year, but they are still excellent on defense. Vermont is well coached and they are very good at getting their style of play regardless of the opponent. Vermont is going to slow the game down. They are 344th in tempo out of 364 teams in the country. 

Vermont has seen six of their last seven games finish with 133 total points or fewer. Three of their last four games have finished with 125 points or fewer. 

Dartmouth is playing somewhat faster this year, but they have played a very weak group of defenses so far this season. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and they are both good at defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers and Norfolk State Spartans meet in a neutral site battle at Mohegan Sun Arena. 

This is a much bigger arena than either of these two teams generally play at during the season. In their matchups last night both teams saw their games go under the total by a wide margin.

Grambling will work to slow the tempo down the best they can in general. Grambling has played a bunch of very fast paced opponents (New Mexico, Florida, Cal Poly) this season. Norfolk State is 300th in average possession length, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace.

Norfolk State has struggled on the defensive glass this year, but Grambling is one of the 20 worst teams in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Both of these teams are pretty careless with the basketball and that should lead to some dead ball turnovers in this one.

Barring the teams shooting it much better than normal or a major foul fest, I think this total is several points too high for a neutral site game between two slow paced teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars have played the 89th toughest slate of opposing offenses according to KenPom. They have played the 343rd toughest slate of opposing defenses. A schedule with teams like North Florida and Green Bay shows how easy the opposing defenses have been.

Little Rock is a completely different team this year. I'm very impressed with their interior defense. Little Rock has three very good shot blockers, and they are one of the tallest mid major teams in the country. The Trojans are 30th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. One knock on them is they do foul too much, but SIU Edwardsville is in the bottom 15 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

These teams are both playing at a below average pace. Both teams rank worse than 300th in the nation in free throw shooting percentage. 

Six of Little Rock's nine opponents have been in the top 100 in tempo. They now face a slower opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are 353rd out of 364 teams in tempo. Austin Peay is going to do their very best to slow this game down. Corey Gipson's teams have been excellent at controlling the pace in the last few seasons. Austin Peay is 337th in effective field goal percentage offense. They take far too many contested jumpers. They rank 275th in the country in shot selection. 

Ohio's defense has been bad so far this year, but they are due for some positive regression toward the mean. This has been a mediocre defense the last few years. Right now, they are dead last in the country in 3 point FG percentage defense. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous 45.1% on 3 point jumpers against Ohio this year. In the last five years, they have held opponents to 34% or lower every year. Austin Peay is shooting just 29.7% from long range.

I think Ohio's defense looks better here, and Austin Peay slows the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers have a way of making games high scoring. Sacred Heart has been top 85 in the country in tempo for three straight seasons. They have also been bottom 75 in defensive efficiency in each of those seasons. Sacred Heart has allowed 81 points or more in six games already this year.

Sacred Heart is very good from three point range though, and they take a lot of shots from long distance. Albany has given up open threes all year, and they are allowing 38.9% from long distance. 

Albany is 88th in tempo overall. The Great Danes commit a lot of fouls, and they have no shot blockers to protect the paint. Albany takes good care of the basketball on offense and they shoot free throws very well.

These two teams played last year and Albany won 93-79. I think we see another high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play this very unique zone full court press that actually slows the game down significantly. Merrimack is a tricky matchup for opposing offenses. On the other side, Merrimack is atrocious on offense. Merrimack has been overmatched against top 75 opponents the last few years. 

Merrimack has faced two top 75 teams this year: VCU (they scored 42 points) and Butler (they scored 39 points). Last year they were held to 52 points by Ohio State and 49 by Cincinnati. I don't think they can do much offensively against Kyle Smith's Stanford defense that has a big height advantage.

Stanford's last four opponents were all in the top 120 in pace. Merrimack is completely different. They enter 325th in tempo this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers no longer have Joe Girard who was an elite outside shooter last year. Girard was also a poor defender though. They lost a great shooter, but they are much better in perimeter defense this season. Clemson has been mixing in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition nicely. Opponents have played at the third slowest pace in the country against Clemson. They have slowed the pace down against ultra fast paced foes like Kentucky and Penn State.

South Carolina is 264th in tempo this year. The Gamecocks are 34th in effective field goal percentage defense. South Carolina has played better opposing offenses than defenses. South Carolina's offense has relied on getting to the line a lot, but Clemson has been good at defending without fouling. 

This is a rivalry game where both defenses are significantly better than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers have played a brutally difficult schedule so far this year. Grambling has played the sixth toughest schedule in the country. Grambling has also played a bunch of teams that love to run at an extremely fast pace. In two of their last four games they have faced Cal Poly (#1 in tempo) and New Mexico (#4 in tempo). Grambling prefers to play a much slower pace, and they should get their wish in this one.

SE Louisiana is 220th in average possession length. They prefer to slow things down as well. SE Louisiana takes a lot of low percentage mid range jumpers. They aren't good at getting to the line, and they don't have many good long range shooters.

These two teams played each other last year and it was a 48-47 final with just 54 possessions in the game. I don't expect that low of a score, but I do think the current total is too high. Look for a half court battle here. The two offenses have been very inefficient the last two seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears have a new coach in Ryan Ridder this year. Ridder has been pushing the pace to the extreme ever since he has been a head coach. He got Bethune Cookman to play at a top 20 pace in the country. He got UT Martin to play at a top 20 tempo in the country. Ridder has Mercer playing at the 37th quickest average possession length right now. 

Mercer has also played against some very slow paced team so far this year. The Stetson, South Carolina, West Georgia, and South Alabama type opponents really look to slow the pace down. 

Chicago State is a terrible team. They rank 81st in overall tempo. They are 347th out of 364 in shot selection allowed. They have allowed 85 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. They foul a lot and are terrible on the defensive boards. 

Mercer is 282nd in defensive efficiency. The Bears should be pushing the pace to the extreme and with such a fast pace I think Chicago State can do enough to get this one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in defensive efficiency. VCU has been clamping down opponents all year long. VCU has allowed 61 points or fewer in regulation in eight of their last nine games. 

Colorado State has lost a ton of offensive talent in the last couple years. Colorado State is struggling to get good looks this year. They are just 273rd in offensive shot selection. Colorado State is still looking for a team leader and an identity on the offensive end. The Rams are 54th in shot selection allowed, and they are 64th in defensive efficiency. They have been playing some very good defense.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are 343rd out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. Providence doesn't want to push the pace at all. St. Bonaventure is 308th in tempo, so they are happy to play at a slow pace as well. This game should be played almost exclusively in the half court.

Providence has Bryce Hopkins back, but their offense is too stagnant. They rely on isolation basketball too much. The Friars are a good defensive team and they are good at allowing only one shot for the opposition.

St. Bonaventure is 52nd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have allowed 56 points or less in three straight games. On offense they rely on getting to the hoop, but Providence protects the paint well.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 318th in defensive efficiency. Northern Arizona is 344th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Arizona doesn't play fast, but they are so weak defensively that their games can get pretty high on a regular basis.

Pepperdine started the year playing very slowly, but they have definitely sped up their tempo of late. Pepperdine has also faced a bunch of really good defenses. In fact, KenPom has them facing the 83rd ranked defenses on a strength of schedule basis thus far. The offenses their defense has gone up against are ranked just 231st. This game is a flip for Pepperdine where they will be playing against a team that is much worse on defense and is serviceable on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are very weak offensively this year. Tulsa is shooting 28% from 3 point range on the season. UCF's defense is typically excellent in the paint and defending midrange jumpers, the way to try to beat them is with 3's. Tulsa seems unlikely to be able to do that. Tulsa is 356th in the country in open 3 rate.

UCF is mixing in some zone on defense at times. The Knights have forced turnovers at a pretty high rate, but still not fouled much this year. 

Tulsa has slowed their pace down some this year. They shouldn't want a track meet game here.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 358th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Alabama State Hornets are 312th. The last two seasons, Alabama State has finished 363rd and 362nd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. These are two bad teams, but they are especially bad on offense.

The pace could be relatively quick in this game, but I'm going with the defenses to have the upper hand and the offenses to take a lot of low quality shots.

Alabama State has given up a lot of points this year, but that was against the likes of UNLV, SMU, Cincinnati, and LSU. The defense should look better against UT Martin. 

UT Martin has been good defending beyond the arc and Alabama State likes to take a lot of long range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Michigan Wolverines square off at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

These are two teams who are improved this season and have new big name head coaches. Both Calipari and May have a history of having very strong defensive teams as well.

Arkansas is 75th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 19th in defensive efficiency. Michigan is 43rd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of the teams play slightly quicker than average, but both are better defensively and are great at defending without fouling. 

These two teams have had some trouble with turnovers offensively too. I think the efficiency numbers on offense could be lower here.

Madison Square Garden is one of the very best under venues in the country. This is a tough shooting backdrop and under bettors have done extremely well on MSG games in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been known as a defensive team for a bunch of years now. Texas State ranks in the bottom one percent of all teams in offensive spacing of the floor. This team isn't good in their halfcourt offensive sets, but they also are weak in transition. Texas State is scrappy though and doesn't give up a lot of good looks.

The Rice Owls have turned into a very good defensive team. Rice is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are just 259th in tempo as well. Texas State is 325th in average possession length.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Canisius Golden Griffins are one of the very worst defenses in the country. Canisius is 359th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Canisius has faced only the 254th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have faced the 99th toughest slate of defenses. Their raw stats are a bit skewed toward lower scoring games than they should be.

Siena has given up 68 points or more in all but one game so far this year. This isn't a good defensive team either. The Saints games tend to have a lot of free throws because of their aggression both on offense and defense.

A total set this low with poor defenses is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mercyhurst Lakers are a new Division One team. It's clear that this team is going to struggle to score this year. They are 322nd in the nation in shot selection. They are 347th in offensive efficiency. They have faced a relatively easy slate of defenses and a fairly difficult slate of opposing offenses in the early going.

Lafayette is 301st in offensive efficiency. The Leopards are 311th in offensive rebounding percentage. Lafayette is 272nd in the country in overall tempo rating.

Mercyhurst is 356th in average possession length. This team is stalling about as much as anyone. They are up against a Lafayette defense that is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense.

A slow paced halfcourt battle between two teams who settle for a lot of bad shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates are 316th in spacing on offense this year. East Carolina has struggled to score in recent games. The Pirates have played the 344th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. South Carolina is absolutely one of the best defenses they have seen thus far.

East Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. They will try to slow the game down. They rank 30th in shot selection allowed, and their defense has improved through the season.

South Carolina is a below average paced team as well. The Gamecocks are 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. They protect the paint well, and East Carolina isn't a good three point shooting team.

The last two years these teams have met and the combined totals have been 120 and 130 points. I think around 130 is where this will land as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A rare noon eastern start time during the week here. Lipscomb has really impressed me this year. I think the Bison can have a very good season. Lipscomb has really turned up the defense this year. The Bison are 91st in  the country in defensive efficiency so far this year. Lipscomb is 78th in shot selection allowed. Lipscomb is also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. The Bison do an excellent job defending without fouling.

Southeast Missouri State is a much weaker team. They are 329th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 351st in the country in shot selection. They have improved to be about an average defense so far this year. Southeast Missouri State often struggles with putting the opposition on the line too much, but Lipscomb is bottom 15 in the country in free throw attempts/field goal attempts.

An early start time and a projected blowout in favor of Lipscomb should help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been an under machine this year. Seton Hall lost their top scorers from a year ago and they are clearly struggling badly on offense. They are 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. Seton Hall hasn't scored more than 63 points in regulation in any of their first eight games of the season. 

NJIT is dreadful on offense. They are 341st in shot selection in the country. They haven't played a defense as good as Seton Hall yet this year. NJIT has been held to 57 points or fewer four times already this year. 

These teams are 311th and 358th in tempo. This game should be played at a snail's pace. 

Seton Hall should get the lead and control the pace here. They might top 63 points here, but I think they'll hold NJIT to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rider Broncs have been a really good under team this year. Rider is taking some terrible shots on a consistent basis. Rider is 353rd in shot selection in the country. The Broncs are bottom 15 in the country in shot quality on offense. The Rider defense is actually pretty good. They are 148th in shot selection allowed. Rider is good at defending without fouling.

Fairfield has changed up the way they play. The Stags is short on playmakers on offense. They are 351st in effective field goal percentage offense. Fairfield is playing to try to win lower scoring contests. They are 274th in overall tempo.

Rider is 348th in average possession length. The Broncs also waste a lot of possessions with turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 359th in average offensive possession length. Coastal Carolina is stalling in a big way on offense. They are a big team and they are looking to turn these games into halfcourt battles. Coastal is 292nd in shot selection this year, so they are struggling to get good looks. They are good on defense though. Coastal is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Campbell is 247th in overall tempo, so the Fighting Camels don't move very quickly either. It's only fitting I guess. Campbell is a team that virtually never gets second chances, but they are great on the defensive glass.

Five of Coastal Carolina's seven contests have been 128 points or lower. I think this one stays low scoring too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duquesne Dukes rank 108th in shot selection in the country. Duquesne is attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line more than the average team. The Dukes should live at the line against a St. Peter's team that ranks among the ten most foul happy teams in the country. They have been among the 25 most foul happy teams in the country for three straight years. Duquesne's shooting numbers should positively regress toward the mean. 

St. Peter's does two things on offense. They look to shoot the 3 point jumper, and they attack the offensive boards and get fouled a bunch. Duquesne is terrible at defending the 3 point shot. The Dukes are also a team that fouls a bunch. 

Duquesne has played four games at neutral sites and that typically lowers the shooting percentages. This is an ultra low total, and the Dukes want to push the pace when they can.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lipscomb Bison are 89th in shot selection allowed. They are also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. It is very hard to get to the line against Lipscomb. This team is much improved defensively. Lipscomb has also slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago.

Chattanooga gets to the line quite a bit and shoots free throws well. I just don't think they can rely on those trips to the line as much against Lipscomb. Chattanooga's last three Division I opponents have all ranked in the top 30 in tempo, so their recent scores are inflated. 

These two teams met last year and the final total was 150, and Lipscomb has been much slower and much improved defensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kent State has been able to slow the pace down against everyone this year. Kent State got Auburn to play at just 63 possessions. Kent State pulled Louisiana and UC Irvine into slower paced games as well.

Kent State has major offensive problems. They are outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage offense. They just don't have a go to guy on offense. Kent State is excellent on defense though. The Golden Flashes contest shots well and they are good on the defensive boards.

Kennesaw State is a fast paced team, but they aren't as fast as a year ago. I think their totals are being inflated a bit. They are taller this year, and their length has helped their defense a lot.

This neutral court has been tough on shooters thus far.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams rank in the top 28 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Lanier has this Rice team improving dramatically on defense from what they have been in recent seasons. The Owls have slowed the pace down as well. 

These two teams have done a great job slowing teams down from beyond the three point line, and both of these teams do take a lot of long range jumpers. I see this helping the under, especially with this game being played in a neutral court in Nassau.

I think this total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 348th in average possession length in the country. They are doing a great job slowing the pace down. App State was second in the country at defending without fouling last year, and they are third this year in that same statistic. That's important because UNC Wilmington has relied on getting to the line to be efficient on offense this year.

UNC Wilmington scored just 59 points on Colgate and 69 on Sam Houston the last couple years. They are without their top two scoring options from a year ago. UNC Wilmington has slowed their pace down a lot in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are first in the country in shot selection allowed. This is a good defense that is forcing opponents into difficult looks. Arkansas is 63rd in that same metric.

Arkansas is 7th in defensive efficiency overall. Illinois is 17th. These two teams are 32nd and 83rd in offensive efficiency.

There's no doubt the pace will be quick in this game, but I like the defenses to make things tough enough on the opposing offense to keep the game under this high total. 

Both teams are top 17 in the country in defending without fouling. 

This is a neutral court game which is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have played five straight games under this total. Richmond has seen all but one of those games finish with 127 points or fewer in regulation. The Spiders are 276th in average possession length, so they are clearly looking to slow the game down. Richmond shoots it poorly from 3 point range, and they get virtually no second chance points.

Ball State's offense has struggled of late. They were held to 59 points at home by Detroit. They put up just 63 against Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals rely on getting to the free throw line. In the past three full seasons Richmond has been top 50 in defending without fouling.

This is a neutral court game which is a positive.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This version of the Charleston Cougars is a whole lot different than last year's version. Chris Mack is the new head coach. He doesn't have this team pushing the pace nearly as much as Pat Kelsey did. Charleston is 251st in shot selection this year so far as well. They aren't getting very good shots.

Northern Kentucky is 255th in overall tempo. Northern Kentucky is 345th in the nation in shot selection. Every Division One game of Northern Kentucky has finished with 136 total points or fewer. Northern Kentucky has consistently been a good defense under Coach Horn. They mix in zone defenses and zone pressure to actually slow the game down.

I think this line is too high based on Charleston's history from the past couple seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have played three Division One opponents this year. All three of them rank 75th or faster in tempo so far this season. Now, LA Tech plays a Richmond team that is 254th in average possession length. Richmond is back to playing very slowly.

Richmond scored just 67 points against Florida Tech last game. Richmond could score only 48 against Charlotte. They had just 61 points in regulation against Bucknell. The Spiders get virtually no second chance points.

LA Tech is 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a really good defensive team. They can sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Richmond isn't the team that generally takes advantage of that weakness.

This is a neutral site game where unders have had the edge in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions are 299th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that really struggles to get open looks. They don't get to the free throw line much, and they don't get many second chance points either. 

Gardner Webb turns it over too much on offense. They are learning a new offense under a new head coach. Gardner Webb has faced the 15th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and overall I've liked what I've seen from their defense. This team is focusing on defense first this season.

This is an early season tournament on a neutral floor (Hard Rock Riviera) that has been good for under bettors in the past. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are 314th in average possession length in the country. Long Beach State is 338th in average possession length. These are two very slow paced teams. I would expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. 

UNC Greensboro is 318th in the nation in shot selection. Long Beach State is 350th in the nation in shot selection (that is bottom 3%). These two teams settle for a lot of bad looks. Their defenses hold opponents to 80th in shot selection and 159th. The defenses are stronger than the offenses for both teams.

This is a late night game in Las Vegas at a neutral site. I think this has the potential to be a very ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Hampshire Wildcats have completely changed their style of play. They have slowed down drastically from last year. They started this year looking pretty fast paced again, but they have slowed things down a bunch in their last few games. Nathan Davis' team just doesn't have enough offensive weapons. New Hampshire was 20th in average possession length last year, and they are 267th in average possession length this year. 

Trey Woodyard is one of the most important players to this New Hampshire team, and he has missed the last three games. They have slowed things down even more without him.

Columbia is playing a bit slower this year, and they are playing much better defense. They are 80th in shot selection allowed after being outside the top 200 last year. Columbia has been held to 58 points or fewer in four of their last six against Division One opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons are bottom 20 in the nation in tempo. Drexel almost never gets to the free throw line so they are reliant on shooting it well from the floor. The Dragons lost both Amari Williams and Justin Moore from last year's team, and they were two of their key guys.

Fort Wayne has played mainly above average tempo teams, and Drexel is easily the slowest pace team they have played so far this year. The Mastadons are great at the free throw line, but Drexel has been elite at defending without fouling in the last few seasons. Fort Wayne sometimes has problems with fouling too much on defense, but as mentioned before Drexel very rarely gets to the charity stripe.

An early site neutral game that tips off early in the afternoon.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very rare 10:30 am eastern start time. For Portland, this is a 7:30 am body clock start time. They have had several days here to get used to the time change, but this is a very early start time for everyone here. The earliest of starts have trended a bit under the total long term. 

Early season neutral site games have gone under the total at a good rate over the last 15 years as well. This is a high total with an early start on a neutral floor.

Portland has slowed their pace down quite a bit this year. Princeton is a good defensive rebounding team and a team that does a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets are definitely a great offensive team. Toledo has put up some big numbers this year. That's why this total has been adjusted so far up. I think the total has been moved too far up now though.

Toledo is now going to play the slowest paced team they have played all year. The second slowest team they played was Detroit and that game played to 149 points. Toledo has played two defenses with a defensive efficiency rank of 300th or worse in the country in the last two games. Jacksonville State is 184th and they are 124th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Jacksonville State and Toledo have both been elite at defending without fouling in recent years. They are both also above average getting defensive rebounds.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have had one of the biggest tempo changes in the country this year. Coastal Carolina brought in Justin Gray and they have gone all the way down to 361st in average possession length on offense. That is slower than Virginia and Air Force. This is a Coastal Carolina team that has played 3 of their 4 games to a combined total score of 124 points or lower. 

IU Indianapolis has been a terrible offense the last couple years. This year doesn't appear to be much different. They are shooting 37% on two point shots which is bottom ten in the country. They are 331st in average possession length too, so this game should be played at a very slow pace.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia is hosting the first of an annual tournament that will be played here early each season. This is obviously a neutral site contest where both teams aren't familiar with the shooting backdrop. Early season neutral games have gone under at a high rate in the past 15 years in college hoops. That has been an even stronger angle when the total is set at a high number like this one.

Pitt improved their defense a lot last year, and in the offseason this Panthers team added a lot of height and shot blockers. Pitt is 15th in defensive efficiency in the country so far this year. 

LSU has played three straight games that have finished at 145 points or fewer. The Tigers have been reliant on offensive rebounds in the last couple years, and Pitt is an excellent defensive rebounding team. 

Pitt has played some very weak defenses this year and with the neutral floor and a decent LSU defense this is a bigger test for the Panthers offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders have a new coach this year. Scott Nagy was a guy who wanted to push the pace in a big way, but Clint Sargent has slowed the team down a good amount. Wright State was 25th in average possession length last year. They are 147th so far this year. Wright State ranks 329th in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Raiders aren't getting to the line much at all, and they don't get offensive rebounds.

Princeton has been historically a below average tempo team. They have played faster this year, but they have some relatively quick teams. Princeton is 196th in shot selection in the country. The Tigers are very poor on the offensive boards, but they are great on the defensive glass.

This is a neutral site game early in the season with a high total. A total this high with very few second chance opportunities- I have to play it toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates were 321st and 288th in effective field goal percentage offense the last two years. East Carolina has relied on a ridiculously high free throw rate and very high offensive rebounding rate to be successful on offense early this year. They aren't likely to keep getting 40 and 32 free throws by themselves. I think this is still a team that will struggle to score in the halfcourt.

Jacksonville State has been top 40 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are an above average defense, but they don't have many  go to scoring options.

Both of these teams play much slower than the average team. I think this has the potential to be a rock fight. This game is played at Ocean Center (neutral court) where unders have had value in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start on a neutral floor in South Carolina. There won't be many fans at this game. These early season neutral site games have trended strongly toward the under in the last 15 years in college hoops.

Ohio has allowed opponents to shoot 53.3% from 3 point range so far this season. That will obviously regress toward the mean. Ohio is a mediocre defensive team that happens to be playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has struggled shooting it from long range the last few seasons.

MTSU has struggled with offensive efficiency the last few seasons because of their poor shooting numbers and high turnover percentage. MTSU is known for solid defense though.

Ohio has played some good offenses this year and that has inflated this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a comfortable bet. A bet on an under in an Alabama game isn't something I really want to do, but the number has gotten up to a point where I have to take it.

This is a neutral site game. Neutral site unders have done very well in college hoops in general in the last decade. The neutral site unders with very high totals have done even better toward the under.

Alabama is a great offense that flies tempo wise. I feel like that is absolutely baked into this total. The question is what will Illinois do with the pace here. If Illinois is wise they will try to slow the game down some and win with defense.

Illinois has a pretty clear height advantage here. Coach Underwood said this will be a good defensive team, and so far they have been improved on defense. Illinois is less efficient on offense than a year ago.

A 87-80 game is an under here with this high of a number. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins play at a very slow pace under Coach Mincy. Jacksonville is known for their defensive intensity and their ability to slow the game down. Jacksonville has played three opponents who want to run. The Dolphins now face a Virginia Tech Hokies team that is the slowest paced team they have faced so far this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down quite a bit from last year. The Hokies took advantage of terrible defenses in Delaware State and USC Upstate, but their offense has looked shaky against Winthrop and Penn State.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot, and I expect a lot of turnovers leading to empty possessions and wasted time on the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons lost Amari Williams to Kentucky and Justin Moore to Loyola Chicago. The Dragons offense takes a step back this season. They have slowed down their pace of play even more in the early season without Moore pushing the pace too.

Fairfield lost Jalen Leach to Northwestern, and Leach was their highest rating offensive player. The Stags have played drastically slower so far this year. Fairfield has yet to score more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent this year.

Neither of these teams attack the hoop much to get to the free throw line. Both have a history of being good on the defensive glass as well.

I had this one down in the low 130's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are a team I like to play unders with for a few reasons. First, they are good at controlling the pace of the game. They also are great at defending without fouling. In the last few years, Vermont has been excellent on the defensive boards as well. Vermont has played all four games under this total this year. Three of the four have been a total of 129 points or fewer.

Buffalo has  played a lot of teams who push the pace so far this year. Vermont is the first team they have seen that is defense first and a slow tempo team. The Bulls don't foul much, and they struggle on the offensive end as far as efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Fullerton Titans don't have the point guards this year to push the pace like they have some of the years in the past. Fullerton is going to try to play through the frontcourt and slow things down. 

Cal State Fullerton put up 53 points on Stanford and 53 points on Colorado in their last two games. Oregon State plays slower than either of those two teams. I think Fullerton could have a hard time getting past 55 or 56 here.

Oregon State has been bottom 50 in the country in tempo in each of the last two seasons. The Beavers haven't given up more than 58 points in a game this season. Oregon State is a hard nosed team who should do a good job keeping Fullerton off the offensive boards here.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers have more shooters to spread the floor out and knock down long range jumpers than they did last season. Charlotte isn't going to play fast, but they are likely to be efficient on offense. They don't turn the ball over very much at all.

Richmond is pushing the pace some more this year. They lack interior shot blockers and Charlotte's big men should be able to do work down low also. Richmond always runs good offensive sets under Chris Mooney. The Spiders should be able to get some open looks with dribble drives and kick outs.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights are known for their very slow pace. They have ranked in the bottom 50 (360 plus teams) in the country in tempo in each of the last 4 seasons. Bellarmine is bottom 15 in tempo so far this season. 

Southern Indiana was able to slow the pace down against Bucknell and Marshall in their last two games. 

These two are an interesting matchup because Southern Indiana is wildly inefficient from the floor in general on offense, but they are great at getting to the line. Bellarmine is excellent at not fouling.

Southern Indiana is decent defensively except for the fact that they foul like crazy. Bellarmine very rare gets to the line though.

I think this total is inflated by a few points. Both teams have faced teams who like to play fast so far this year. They are now playing another team who slows things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Lipscomb Bison are bitter rivals. Both schools are in Nashville, Tennessee. These two coaches know each other well. The players on both teams know each other very well. Only one of the last six meetings between these two teams has finished higher than 152 points total.

Lipscomb is playing slower this year because of their ability to play inside out. The Bison are excellent on the defensive glass. They are very good at not fouling as well.

Belmont lost their top three players from a year ago. The NIL era has really hit Casey Alexander's team hard. The Bruins are far less explosive on offense than they were the last couple years. Belmont doesn't attack the rim much and doesn't get to the line much at all. Unless they are red hot shooting from deep, I think their scoring numbers will be down.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Damon Stoudamire has always wanted his teams to play quickly. He hasn't always been able to do that because of the guard play on this teams. Stoudamire got a really nice pickup in the offseason. Javion McCollum from Oklahoma came in and he will be a leader for Georgia Tech. McCollum is a scorer who shot 89% and 94% from the FT line in the last two seasons. 

Georgia Tech is 23rd in the country in average possession length so far this year so they have been playing very fast. The Yellow Jackets have scored 85 and 93 points in their two games.

Texas Southern has more depth this year, and Johnny Jones prefers to play at a quick pace as well. Texas Southern has had major problems with committing far too many fouls the last few years. Georgia Tech has good free throw shooters who can take advantage. On offense, Texas Southern can get points in transition and on second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel was 299th in tempo last year. Stetson was 252nd. These two teams have a history of both trying to slow down the game. 

Stetson played a fast paced game against Nebraska Omaha last time out, but Omaha shot lights out early and Stetson had to speed up to have a chance later in the game. 

The Citadel isn't great defensively, but they are good on the defensive boards and good at defending without fouling.

Stetson lost a bunch of talent from last year's team that made a trip to the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a game that I believe will be played in the 68 or 69 possession range. That would require some impressive shooting numbers to get over a total set this high. 

With the line move higher here, I'm going to side with the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs have a new coach in Vance Walberg. Walberg coached Pepperdine in 2007 and 2008. Pepperdine ranked in the top ten in tempo in both of those years. Both of those teams also ranked in the bottom 40 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State had a team red/white scrimmage the other day. They played just one half (20 minutes) and the score was 65-60. This teams is going to be pushing the pace to the extreme and putting up a lot of 3 pointers. 

Sacramento State has a new coach. While I don't necessarily expect them to try to play all that fast, they are weak on defense. They should be a bottom 100 defense this year. 

With one team pushing pace to the extreme and both teams being terrible at defense- I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first day of the college hoops season was all about the overs. I don't overreact to any one day, but the number of fouls called and the average tempo in day one games stood out as something to monitor very closely. The over was 75-38 in day one. There were a bunch of games that sailed far above their posted total.

FIU always wants to use a full court press and push the pace with Coach Jeremy Ballard at the top of the program. FIU struggles to grab defensive rebounds though and opponents were crushing them with second chance points last year. FIU still gets plenty of run out chances from their live ball turnovers.

Rice has a new coach in Rob Lanier. His teams have played pretty fast in the past, and he said he wants this Rice team to push the pace. They will take some time to develop defensively, and they lack the length all over the floor that he really wants to see.

I think Rice gets a lot of second chances here, but they turn it over a lot as well. A fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If this were a game played between these two teams a year ago, I think this line would make a lot of sense. I don't think a game played between these two should be set this high.

Indiana State lost Robbie Avila the star leading the way, and they lost their superstar coach Josh Schertz. The Sycamores new coach says they will play relatively quickly, but there's no way they can match their offensive numbers from a year ago. 

Florida Atlantic lost Dusty May to Michigan, and they lost most of their top talent as well. The Owls will play pretty quickly, but I don't expect to see any great efficiency on offense from them.

This is a neutral site game in Xenia, Ohio at a new gym. These early neutral site games have trended strongly to the under in the last decade in college hoops.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's Purdue vs. UConn in an epic final for Monday night. The two best teams in the country actually both got to the title this year. 

UConn has been so dominant along their run that they are deserving favorites, but I think Purdue will at least make them work hard here.

The UConn defense has been on another level of late. Some forget that Clingan missed quite a few games this year, and UConn's defense with Clingan is light years better than without Clingan. He is as good of a defensive big man as you will see in college basketball. 

Zach Edey is an excellent offensive player and a solid defensive player too. Edey will have to work harder to get his points here though than he has any other time this year. UConn has Clingan at 7'2 and the long Samson Johnson has been a great shot blocker too. 

UConn is number one in the country in near proximity defense (defending the rim). Purdue is 4th in the nation in defending without fouling. Purdue is also amazing on the defensive glass. 

UConn slowed the game down in a big way against Alabama. A game at just 63 possessions against Alabama is nearly unheard of. Purdue played to a slow pace against NC State as well.

The rims were tight in State Farm Stadium in the Final 4. Both of these offenses are very good, but I think the defenses are underrated too. The pace should be slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers defense hasn't gotten enough credit in recent weeks. Purdue has allowed 68 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games. In four of those six games, they have allowed 0.98 points per possession or fewer. The Boilermakers are top 15 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. 

NC State has actually played at a slower pace in their last few games than they have for the season overall. Burns is fantastic, but I do think Edey and company will make it tougher than average for him in facilitating the offense. 

Purdue's offense is excellent, but they haven't been shooting very well from long range of late. Purdue has benefited from Edey getting to the line a lot, but we have often seen the refs swallow the whistle a bit more in the Final Four and Championship games. That could allow NC State to slow Purdue enough.

This being a football stadium and the basketballs used in the NCAA Tournament being so unique are pluses as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are 362 teams in Division One college basketball. UConn ranks #1 in offensive efficiency out of those 362 teams. Illinois ranks #2 in offensive efficiency in the country. This should be a really fun contest.

Illinois just faced an Iowa State defense that has been better than UConn through the year on that end of the floor. The Fighting Illini could have put up quite a few more points if they hadn't been awful from the free throw line in that game.

Illinois was fortunate that Iowa State was putting up some terrible shots in that game. I don't think UConn will take those same low quality looks. This is a UConn team that is running some spectacular halfcourt sets, and this Illinois defense can't be trusted. Illinois is just 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Terrence Shannon has arguably been the best player in the country in the last few weeks, at least on the offensive end. Shannon has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games. He should get his again here. 

UConn has been willing to play quicker at times this year, and I think Illinois tries to get in transition a lot here. 

Both teams should be efficient on offense. Both teams are great on the offensive glass as well, so second chances are likely coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles are always happy to run. They are 9th in average possession length in the country. Marquette is excellent at causing turnovers and getting out and scoring points in transition. Colorado has been poor at taking care of the basketball, and their transition defense isn't good.

Marquette's offensive numbers are skewed too negative late in the season because Kolek was out. With him in the lineup they are a completely different offense.

Marquette's weakness on defense is getting defensive rebounds and protecting the basket. Lampkin and company for Colorado should be able to get plenty of second chances. 

Both teams are ranked outside the top 150 in transition defense. The pace here should be very quick. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense has been on a whole different level in the last month. Gonzaga is a top four offense in the country in the last month. Ben Gregg has ignited the offense with his ability to stretch a defense. Nolan Hickman has heated up significantly from 3 point range as well. The Bulldogs get consistently solid contributions from Graham Ike on offense too.

Kansas scored 93 in their win over Samford. KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson have been a nice duo in the post. The Jayhawks have struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Gonzaga has been on fire from long range of late.

The tempo here should be key. I expect both teams to run and push the pace. Gonzaga has sped up in key games in the last month. Kansas ranks 55th in average possession length too. A pace in the low 70's should be expected. 

Two good passing teams who want to run. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are 39th in the country in offensive efficiency. TCU is 44th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. They have been playing quite a few teams in their respective conferences who like to slow the game down, but in this one they'll face another fast paced team.

TCU gets out in transition as often as possible. They are in transition on 17% of their possessions on offense. That's extremely high and is top 10 in the country. TCU is 12th in offensive efficiency in transition. Utah State's transition defense is 223rd in the country. 

Utah State is in transition on 13% of their possessions (above average) and they are third in offensive efficiency in transition. The Aggies are up against a TCU defense that is just 189th in transition defense.

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line. I would expect TCU to get a lot of second chance points here. Utah State's Osabor should get good looks in the post on offense too. 

Utah State hasn't seen many teams with high pressure defense, and TCU is known for their aggressiveness and willingness to run off steals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have to know they need to slow the pace down here to have any chance. This is a well coached smart team, so I expect them to work the clock down as much as they possibly can. Yale is 334th in the country in average possession length to begin with, so they are bottom 30 in the country in pace.

Yale also relies heavily on scoring inside the paint. They are up against an Auburn team who ranks 1st in the country in near proximity defense. Johni Broome and his elite shot blocking skills are a large reason for that statistic. Yale is likely to have serious trouble scoring here.

Auburn has two weaknesses on defense. They foul too often and they aren't great on the defensive glass. Yale is near the bottom of teams in the country in trips to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs aren't aggressive on the offensive glass. They are below average in offensive rebounding.

Auburn's offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line and grabbing offensive boards. Yale is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding and they are a solid 84th out of 362 teams in defending without fouling. 

The under has done fantastic in double digit spreads in the Round of 64 especially when the total is 140 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs push the pace to the extreme and love to use full court pressure. Bucky Ball from Bucky McMillan is a lot of fun, and it has been very successful. Samford is 6th in the country in average possession length so they are really quick. Samford is 16th in the nation in forced turnover percentage. 

Kansas is 141st in turnover percentage, so I think they will turn it over some and their transition defense has been subpar. Look for Samford to get some run out opportunities here. Kansas is 55th quickest in the country in average possession length. They should be able to get transition opportunities and burn the full court pressure some as well.

Hunter Dickinson is considered probable by beat writers. I think Kansas will score quite a few here even if Dickinson doesn't play, but if he does play there really isn't anyone on Samford's roster that can guard him. Kansas should go high low post and smoke Samford's interior defense.

Samford allowed 98 points to Purdue early in the season. They haven't played another top 75 team this year. Kansas has the talent to score a lot here, and Samford's unique style should get them plenty of points.

Take the over.