5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

5*New York Jets +2.5

10*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars are hungry for a victory and will be playing in London for the third straight season. Indianapolis has never played a regular season game in London. I really believe that's a significant advantage for Jacksonville. The Colts have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. I like taking division underdogs with the better defense. A defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game, compared to 400 for Indy. Dante Fowler Jr. is a full go for the Jags' defense. The Colts are coming off an emotional 4th quarter come-from-behind victory last week. This is a perfect spot for the Jags to win their first game and I think they will. Take the Jags plus the points.

5*Indianapolis Colts -127  (money line)

The Colts return home off their disappointing loss against the Broncos. The Colts fell apart in the second half and will now play a Chargers' team that has lost WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead to the same injury. Indianapolis needs a win in the worst way after starting the season 0-2. Andrew Luck is 16-5 straight up off a loss in his career, including 9-0 after a defeat of 14 or more points. The Chargers are just 5-12 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Take the host!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jaguars return home off their embarrassing performance in San Diego. Jacksonville should be pumped up for this game knowing a third straight loss to begin the season will really damper its playoff hopes. The Jags are 0-2, but have won the stats in both games. This team is poised to play a really good game. Baltimore didn't impress me in their comeback win against the Browns as Cleveland outgained the Ravens. Northern teams often struggle when playing games in the Sunshine state during this month. Take the home dog!  

5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

No team is as bad as they looked in the NFL and Vice Versa especially after week one. The Falcons should be able to score some points on this Raiders' defense. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay in their week one loss while the Raiders were outgained in its win over the Saints. Oakland's offensive line is very "nicked" up and their depth will be tested in this game. The Underdog is 14-3 ATS in Dan Quinn's head coaching career. While I am high on the Raiders this season, this is a role that Oakland has struggled with. The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games when installed as the favorite. I have the Raiders just 3-points better at home against Atlanta. NFL teams that are 0-1 facing a 1-0 team have a lot of motivation to not begin the season 0-2. Close game by a FG either way. Take the road dog this one!

4*Tennessee Titans +6

4*Cleveland Browns +5

5*New England Patriots +6

The Patriots have a very good defense, especially their front 7. The Cardinals' offensive line struggled early in preseason games and that was their first team unit. Carson Palmer is an above average thrower, but struggles with pressure in the pocket. Bill Belichick has been excellent with extra time to prepare and as an underdog. In fact, Belichick is 12-4 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more points in his time with the Patriots. I think New England with be just fine without Tom Brady for the first four games because of the brilliance of Belichick. Arizona has led the league in turnover differential for two consecutive seasons and that tends to regress to the mean over time. I will trust my numbers (2.5-point line value) and take the road underdog in this spot.

5*San Diego Chargers +7

The Chargers went 0-6 in all division games last season, despite having positive overall stats (gained more yards than allowed). Head Coach Mike McCoy has made it a point of emphases this season to be much better within the AFC West. San Diego showed nothing during the preseason so don't be scared about the team's performance last month. The offensive line is healthy and with the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers should have a pretty good offense this year. Kansas City relies on a good running game and playing stout defense. No Jamaal Charles in this one. Philip Rivers is a sparkling 10-2-1 ATS as road underdogs in all division games in his career. Lastly, NFL teams that missed the playoffs are 17-6 ATS when playing a team that made the playoffs in week one over the last four seasons combined. This line seems a bit inflated to me. Take the Chargers plus seven!

4*Chicago Bears +6

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

5*Denver Broncos +6

This game reminds me of when the Broncos got crushed by the Seahawks 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Denver was favored by -2.5 points with 75% of the public backing them. Carolina opened as 3-point favorites and the line quickly moved with 74% of the bets and close to 90% of the total dollars wagered on the Panthers. The average home-field is worth 3.5 points so that means this would make Carolina -9.5 at home. Crazy. I would expect a pro Broncos crowd in Santa Clara. Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense and they are very active at all three levels. Manning should be able to read Carolina's defense and have some success on the ground and through the air. I think Gary Kubiak will do a great job having Thomas Davis (broken arm) isolated in coverage against one of his running backs. The team with the better defense has won 40 out of the past 49 Super Bowls straight-up. Also, Super Bowl teams with the #1 ranked defense have gone 9-2 SU in Super Bowl history, including a loss last year. The weather will be ideal with Sunny skies and temps approaching 70 by game time. I don't think this line will move much higher so I'm taking the Broncos plus the generous 6 points. 

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

The Panthers defeated the Cardinals in last year's playoffs 27-16 while outgaining Arizona 386-78. Those 78 yards represent an NFL playoff record for fewest yards gained. Carson Palmer watched helplessly from the sidelines as Ryan Lindley threw for just 51 yards. I think Bruce Arians will "play up" the underdog card to his team. The Panthers' secondary has some holes and I believe the road team has the skill on the outside to take advantage. Carolina benefited from one of the easiest schedules and they have been outgained by 232 yards combined in their last three games. Take the points in what should be a very close game! 

5*Seattle vs. Carolina Over 44

Both teams are stout against the run and I would expect Seattle and Carolina to employ more of an uptempo offense in hopes of moving the ball. It's worked all season as the Seahawks and Panthers are ranked #2 and #3 respectively in net yards per drive. Only Arizona is better. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red-zone efficiency. NFL West Coast teams playing and early 10 AM game favors higher-scoring games if the winds are less than 10 MPH. The Over is 33-14 when the total is less than 45 and the weather looks great. Sunny and calm winds. Go Over 44 points! 

5*New England -4

The Patriots are better in my opinion and appear to be getting healthier. I like Bill Belichick with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs' defense is ranked No. 28 in sacks allowed with 46. That's a bad matchup for the road team going against a Patriots team that is ranked 2nd in QB sacks with 49. The Chiefs played in a cozy indoor building last week and now must play a cold-weather game in a tough environment. Ignore the Pats two-game losing streak as injuries and Belichick pulling back the reigns were major factors. New England is being undervalued here. Pats by 7!

NFL Wild Card

4*Minnesota Vikings +5

I am going against the Public in this one and taking the home underdog in what could be one of the coldest games ever played in Minnesota. I would expect a much closer game than the first meeting. The kickoff temp is going to be around 0 degrees. In extremely cold weather you are more likely going to see one-possession games late in the fourth quarter. Both teams have a great running game and barring any crucial turnovers, I think the home team will keep this one close. Mike Zimmer loves playing the underdog card with his team. The Vikings are 21-10 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons, including 6-1 ATS this year.

4*Houston Texans +3.5

The Texans are in a good spot if they can hold up on special teams. Houston has outgained seven of their last eight opponents, while holding six foes to season-low yards. The Texans have a sneaky good offense, averaging about 16 more yards per game than KC. The Chiefs are leaking oil, having been outgained in three of their past five games. Lets not forgot, the Texans outgained KC 396-330 in their 27-20 week one loss at NRG Stadium. Houston is ranked No. 11 in red-zone efficiency. The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS when playing on Saturday and 6-13 ATS in January games since 1993. Both teams mirror each other and I would expect this game to be decided by 3 points or less.

10*Oakland Raiders +7

This will be Oakland's Super Bowl. The Raiders lost by 14 points despite outgaining the Chiefs 361-232 in the first meeting back in early December. In fact, the Raiders blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead and should be focused at finishing the season at .500, after Vegas pegged their win total at 5.5 wins for the season. The Chiefs can only win the division if the Broncos lose at home as 10-point chalk against the Chargers. Kansas City is primed for a let down after winning nine straight to reach the playoffs. They are leaking oil, having been outgained by 89 and 110 yards respectively the last two weeks. Oakland has a sneaky good defense, allowing 5.6 yards per play while the Chiefs are allowing 5.4 yards per play. NFL division games tend to be closer in the second same-season meeting. The Raiders are 29-14 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points, while the Chiefs are 6-12 ATS in January games since 1993. I would expect a very close game so lets take the road dog in this spot! 

4*New York Giants +5.5

10*Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Panthers' defense is leaking, allowing 38 and 35 points in their last two road games. Carolina is coming off a very physical game against the Giants last week and will be facing a team who has a lot to play for. The Falcons are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they remember these same Panthers embarrassed them 38-0 just two weeks ago. Carolina held the Falcons to 250 total yards. This is the Falcons' Super Bowl and I would expect a top-notch effort. Look for the home team improve to 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

10*San Diego Chargers -1.5

The Chargers have scored six points combined in their last two games so nobody will want to back them here except some "sharps". This game will be like the Chargers' Super Bowl, considering they are a potential candidate to relocate. I know 12-year veteran QB Philip Rivers is pumped-up to give the fans a victory at Qualcomm. Miami is the perfect opponent for this Chargers team to play right now. The Dolphins are coming off a Monday Night high-heat & high-humidity physical game and now must travel three time zones off a short week in Week 15 of a long season. That's tough to do and the Chargers bring in the better offense, defense, special teams, red-zone efficiency, and time of possession stats. Miami has been outgained in seven straight games. If that's not enough to make you like the Chargers, maybe this will. Miami clobbered the Chargers 37-0 last November and held San Diego to just 178 total yards. Look for RB Melvin Gordon to have his best game of the season and the home team to improve to 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

5*Cleveland Browns -1.5

This will be the second straight cold-weather road game for the 49ers. They must now travel cross-country to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM Body Clock) game. The Browns will be playing its third straight home game after going 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in the previous two. NFL teams in this role are cashing just under 70% if the line is +3 to -3. This seems like a great spot for the home team to end its long embarrassing losing streak. San Francisco is 1-5 SU on the road this season and hasn't won back-to-back road games with this new regime. The 49ers have been outgained by a whopping 953 yards in their six road games this season. They are 0-6 ITS (in the stats) on the road and 2-10 ITS overall. At five reputable sportsbooks combined, 71% of the bets are coming in on the road team and the line hasn't moved. This seems like a trap line and the smart play is on the home team. While I'm not a fan of Manziel's long term success in this league, I do believe he can make enough plays with his arm and legs to win this game. 

5*St. Louis Rams +3

The Lions are coming off a tough emotional loss, losing on a hail-marry and now must travel to St. Louis. The Rams are coming off a dismal effort losing 27-3 at home to the Cardinals. The public has bet this game from Lions +1 to Lions -3. The big advantage for the Rams is the offensive line. St. Louis is ranked No. 2, allowing just 15 QB sacks this season, while the Lions are ranked 19th, allowing 31 sacks through last week. The Rams have the better running game and better scoring defense. I like them in this spot getting three points after last week's ugly showing.

4*New Orleans Saints +7

4*Oakland Raiders +3

4*Cleveland Browns +10

4*St. Louis Rams +6

4*Denver Broncos +3

4*Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

5*New Orleans Saints +3

I wanted to see how teams (Saints) with worst defense in terms of points allowed (318) have performed after its BYE week. The numbers suggest these teams play much better with two weeks to prepare, after hearing how bad its defense has been. NFL teams that are ranked last in points allowed have gone 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS coming of a BYE after Week 10 of the season. Also, the Texans are just 5-12-1 ATS following a straight-up win and will now face a new defensive coordinator in his first game with two weeks to prepare. Houston doesn't really know what to expect from the Saints on defense. All of the previous Saints' games on tape with Ryan running the defense are useless to the Texans' coaching staff. I like the Saints to win this game outright!

4*Chicago Bears +9

The Bears are by far the most improved team as far as coaching goes. John Fox has been excellent as an underdog off a loss. The Bears have played a lot of close games as six of their past seven have been decided by 3 points or less. Chicago outgained the Packers in their opening week home loss and one sportsbook manager told me this line should be closer to 7. NFL teams are just 3-7 ATS after playing the Vikings this season. Short week and a 100% chance of rain points to a Bears cover.

5*San Diego Chargers +3

The Chargers have two weeks to prepare for this double-revenge game and Philip Rivers is looking to snap his second-longest losing streak in his career. The Chargers are taking this game very seriously and despite only having two wins, they are outgaining foes by 50 yards per game. The Chiefs will be playing their second straight road game and these teams are big time fade material as favorites after Week 10. Kansas City played a physical game last Sunday and teams usually suffer a huge let down after defeating the Broncos in Denver. Take the home dog!

5*Colts +6

The Falcons' defense is very similar to what Matt Hasselbeck saw against the Jaguars. He went 30-of-47 for 282 yards and one score earlier this season. I think the BYE week and playing indoors will benefit the 40-year old QB. The Colts offensive line, defensive line, and overall team defense are ranked higher than the Falcons according to Football Outsiders. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS as a favorite in the last three seasons. This should be a very close game so lets take the points.

4*Washington +8.5

5*NY Giants +7.5

10*Tennessee Titans +6

The Carolina Panthers will be playing its first road game in just about 1 month after defeating the Packers, Colts, Eagles, and the Seahawks in successive weeks. Very tough especially later in the season. The Steelers were in this very same role last year and lost to the Jets, 20-13 as 4-point road chalk. The Titans have a sneaky good defense, allowing 21 fewer yards per game than the Panthers and their special teams is ranked five spots (23rd) higher than Carolina (28th). Mike Mularkey will bring something new on offense in his second game as interim head coach so the Panthers don't really know what to expect. Dorial Green Beckham is a rising star and I like his matchup against the Panthers' secondary. Jonathon Stewart is questionable and even if Stewart does play he won't be at 100%. Carolina has some injury issues on the offensive line as well. Finally, the Titans have lost their last four home games and are pumped-up for this game. Take the home dog in this classic overlay. 

5*Washington +1.5

4*Tampa Bay +3

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -4

The Steelers held the Bengals to a season-low 296 yards in last week's home loss. I like the Steelers here at home with the Raiders flying cross country to play an early 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM Body Clock) game. DeAngelo Williams is a capable replacement at running back and I expect the Steelers to roll in this one. Look for the Steelers to push the pace on offense early and often.

4*Washington +14.5

5*Dallas Cowboys +6

The Cowboys offense is much better with Cassel under Center and I believe they match-up well with the Seahawks. Seattle has the worst offensive line in the league, allowing 31 sacks already while the Cowboys have allowed just 12. Dallas defeated the Seahawks in Seattle as 10-point underdogs last season. Dallas outgained the Giants 460-289 in last week's loss. This line is out of whack so take the home team in this overlay. 

4*Oakland Raiders +3

5*Chicago Bears +1

The Bears have a sneaky good defense holding four opponents to season-low yards this season. The Bears own the better offensive line by a wide margin. Minnesota has allowed 19 sacks while the Bears have allowed just 12 sacks this season. John Fox has been highly successful, winning his last seven games immediately after the BYE dating back to when he coached the Carolina Panthers. Fox is 10-3 overall after byes, with his last loss coming in 2007. Chicago has won and covered six out of the last seven meetings at Solider Field. More of the same. 

5*Tennessee +6

I think the Titans' offense will be better with Zack Mettenberger. Lets fade the public and take home underdog in this one. I would not be surprised if the Titans won straight-up, so a little taste on the money line is recommended. NFL Home underdogs coming off a blowout (27 points or more) loss at home are cashing close to 80% if they play at home in their very next game. Tennessee is allowing 313 yards per game, while the Falcons are allowing 369.5 yards per game. I love NFL home underdogs with the better defense. 

4*Indianapolis Colts -4

4*Detroit Lions +2

5*Arizona Cardinals -3 (-125)

It's normally tough for NFL teams to play back-to-back road games on the East Coast. However, Arizona did something a little different. The Cardinals arrived at The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia on Sunday night after defeating the Lions, a place they will stay through Friday before heading to Pittsburgh for this matchup. The Steelers were outgained in last week's victory. Michael Vick is 5-11 SU against winning teams after a SU win. Short week against an explosive offense. Take the road team!

5*Cleveland Browns +5

This will be Peyton's first cold weather and windy game of the season. I think the Browns will be fired up at home and should be able to score enough points to keep this one close. The Broncos played a physical game against a bitter rival last week. The Broncos are 3-11 ATS as road chalk after facing the Raiders with no rest. Denver's defense is a little "nicked" up this week. Take the underdog in the Dawg pound.

5*Oakland Raiders +6

The Raiders are coming home with a chip on its shoulder and should be pumped up for this rivalry matchup. Denver played a physical game last week against the Vikings last Sunday. Check out this nugget. NFL teams are 0-3 ATS after playing the Vikings this season. The Browns easily covered 7.5 points against the Chargers this past Sunday. Jack Del Rio facing former team. He served as the defensive coordinator for three years before taking the Oakland gig. Oakland enters this game with the higher-rated QB. Carr has a quarterback rating of 97.7, while Manning checks in at 80.7. Oakland has lost seven straight in this series and the line is less than a TD. Seems like a trap. I like the home team to keep it close.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

4*Cleveland Browns +7

4*San Francisco 49ers +9.5

4*Cleveland Browns +7.5

5*New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have 10 days to prepare for this game. The Bills have to travel back home after playing the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. The Bills are cashing 33% after defeating the Miami Dolphins. Lets fade Tyrod Taylor is his first career game as the betting favorite. This line is too high so take the points in this overlay.

5*St. Louis Rams +1.5

10*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Jets are coming off an emotional Monday Night victory at Indianapolis in which they accumulated 5 turnovers. With that said, they only scored 20 points. Eric Decker played a big part in the win and he is OUT for this game. The Eagles are 0-2 and have looked awful on both sides of the ball. Nobody is giving them a chance to win this game. In the NFL, no team is as bad or as good as they looked the week before. The Eagles are in desperate mode facing the Jets off a short week. Talent wise, the Eagles and Jets are pretty equal. Take the road dog!

5*Minnesota Vikings -1 (-125)

4*Chicago Bears +2.5

The Cardinals are tough at home, but will have to work a little harder playing on natural grass. Arizona is just 8-9 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Arizona has a division game next Week against the 49ers. Possible look ahead. NFL home underdogs off a loss, playing their second straight home game with no rest do very well. Take the home dog in this mild upset.

4*Washington Redskins +3.5

Washington was doomed by their special teams in last week's opening week home loss. The front seven played extremely well. The Rams are coming off their upset win at home against Seattle. Teams have performed poor on the road after facing the Seahawks and their physical style.

4*Houston Texans +3

I like when teams change quarterbacks and Ryan Mallett has a very strong arm. I believe the Texans defense can exploit some weaknesses from the Panthers' offensive line. Carolina will be without stud linebacker Luke Kuechly and that should bolster the Texans' run game.

5*NY Giants +6

The Giants should have extra motivation from getting swept in two straight seasons by Dallas. Division underdogs normally do very well in Week one. The Cowboys starters played very little in the preseason. Dallas gets a lot of attention for having an excellent offensive line and they do. You might be surprised to see that Dallas is much better at run-blocking than pass-protection. The Cowboys were ranked 16th in sacks allowed last season and the starting offensive line hardly played together in the preseason. The Underdog in Dallas Cowboy games are cashing nearly 70% over the last four seasons combined. I don't see the Cowboys defense being able to stop the Giants from scoring enough to cover this game. Should be a tight one. Take the Giants in this overlay.

5*Oakland Raiders +3.5

Oakland's first team offense and defense played inspired ball this preseason. The Bengals have to travel a long way and temps are expected to be above normal. The Bengals have struggled in warmer climates early in the season. I think the Raiders are on the right track. I would expect the Raiders to give the city of Oakland a very competitive team this season. It very well could be their last season in Oakland.

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

I think the Jaguars are improving on both sides of the ball. They have a lot of talent you've never heard of. Carolina is very thin at WR and they have one of the worst offensive lines. Jacksonville's first team offensive line looked solid in the preseason. Gus Bradley is building something special in Jacksonville. They should be undervalued early in the season. Look for the Jaguars to win their home opener for the 4th consecutive season.

4*New England -103

Nobody is really talking about the health of the Seahawks' secondary. Two key starters will playing at less than 100%. The Seahawks also played one of the easiest schedules in all of football this season. With two weeks to prepare, I expect Belichick and company to install a solid game-plan that will exploit the middle of the field with quick-short type passes. Look for numerous running plays from the spread formation with Vereen and Blount. Seattle's defense struggled against Top-notch Quarterbacks with a great Tight-End. They lost to Dallas, San Diego, and should have lost to Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. Antonio Gates gashed Seattle for 3 touchdowns in the Chargers Week two victory. The Patriots' defense matches up pretty well against Seattle as they can stack the box with eight defenders. No team can stop M. Lynch, but the Pats should be able to contain him enough. New England should have extra motivation after losing their last two Super Bowl affairs.  

5*Colts +7

The Colts come into this matchup with the better offense and defense. New England crushed the Colts earlier this season due to a breakout game by Jonas Grey. I don't see that happening again as the Colts run defense is much improved. The Colts have outgained its foe in three straight games while the Pats have been outgained during that same time frame. Indianapolis is allowing just 222 passing yards per game which is what the Pats like to do. The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS this season. New England played a very physical game last week against Baltimore. Look for a close game either way!

5*Dallas Cowboys +6

I am hearing that Aaron Rodgers injury is more serious than people think and his mobility could be limited. That's a big part of the Packers' offense. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball much better than what they showed against Detroit. Look for a close game decided by 4 points or less.

5*Baltimore Ravens +7

Baltimore won't be intimidated playing at Foxboro. I think the Ravens match-up very well against this NE team. I like underdogs with the better defense in the NFL, especially this time of year. Take the road dog!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

4*Oakland Raiders +7

10*Minnesota Vikings +7

The Vikings held the Lions to a season-low 233 yards in last week's two-point loss. Teddy Bridgewater is a Miami native and the team is extremely motivated to finish at .500 this season. Miami has lost the stats in four straight games and they rank in the bottom third in red-zone scoring. The Dolphins don't have any tall red-zone targets and it shows. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in December over the last three seasons and will bring in the better defense. Miami is 2-5 ATS after playing New England with no rest of late. Take the road dog!

4*NY Jets +11

4*Washington +8

4*San Francisco 49ers +10

4*Buffalo Bills +5.5

4*Oakland Raiders +10.5

10*Washington +3

The Rams BYE was back in week four which means they have played nine straight games without rest. This will be the very first cold weather game for the Rams all season and they have not played well when temps are in the 40's. They also have a big revenge game against Arizona this coming Thursday. The Redskins have a +25 net yard differential while the Rams are minus -41. Colt McCoy has a 113.5 QB rating and should be pumped up to give the home fans a win. Take the home team in this upset maker! 

4*Oakland Raiders +7

4*Tennessee Titans +7.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

5*Minnesota Vikings +10

This game will not look anything like the 42-10 Green Bay shellacking in early October. The Vikings committed three turnovers, including two interceptions by C. Ponder and were outgained by just 21 yards. Double Digit division home underdogs with the better defense do very well this time of year. Teddy Bridgewater should benefit from playing in cold weather last week. Look for more quick-type passes up the middle where the Packers have struggled to defend. There is a 70% chance of rain with a high around 42.

4*Oakland Raiders +7.5

5*Detroit Lions +2

Drew Stanton has never played against a No. 1 ranked defense in his career. He is completing less than 50% of his throws, despite his 2-1 record as a starter this season. Arizona continues to benefit from takeaways and that's tough to maintain in the NFL against winning teams. Both squads are very stingy against the run, so I will take the better passing team on offense and the better team at defending the pass. The Lions should feel right at home playing in a dome. Arizona will be playing its seventh straight game without a week of rest. Take the road underdog in this upset maker.

4*Kansas City Chiefs -1

5*Detroit Lions -2.5

This will be the first dome game for the Dolphins in over 1 year after winning three straight games. They are just 1-3 SU over the last three seasons in a Dome. Detroit is allowing 74 yards against the run while the Dolphins are allowing 104 yards. Both defenses are very good, but I like the fact that Calvin Johnson is returning for the Lions. Detroit has the advantage in red-zone scoring, ranking No. 17 (57.1%) while Dolphins are ranked No. 26 (48.7%). Take the home team with two Weeks to prepare. 

5*NY Jets +6

The Steelers are coming off a very physical game against the Ravens and will now play its first road game in almost a month. The Steelers check in at 1-4 ATS after playing the Ravens, without rest over the last two seasons plus. The Jets have quietly won the stats in their last three games with nothing to show for it. Two key players (Polamalu & Shazier) are OUT and that will weaken the Steelers' defense. Look for Jets press coverage to make the difference. They held Tom Brady to 261 yards in New England. Take the home team in what should be a very close game.

5*New England +3.5

New England has the game circled after getting eliminated from the playoffs by Denver last season. Peyton Manning's arm is not as strong and could struggle with timing in windy conditions. The Patriots defense is No. 1 against the pass. The official forecast calls for windy weather, 21-24 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH. Highs in the low 40's with a 30% chance of rain. The weather conditions favor the home team as the Patriots know what to expect. New England is 20-3 SU at home over the last three seasons.

4*NY Jets +10.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5

5*New Orleans Saints -1

This is the Super Bowl for the host Saints and they play "lights out" at home. The Packers only loss was in a dome against the Lions. In fact, the Packers are just 3-4 SU in Dome games over the last three seasons. The Saints are 14-4 SU at home over the last three seasons. Green Bay has allowed more yards than gained this season. Look for a big bounce back win from the Saints. 

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3

Chip Kelly is excellent with extra time to prepare and the Eagles offensive line is getting healthier. Arizona relies on takeaways (11) to win games. That is tough to maintain and I believe the Eagles are the better team. Philadelphia is 12-3 SU since the second half of last season.

5*NY Giants +7

Dallas is coming off a physical game and the odds-makers are just begging you to take Dallas. Looks like a trap to me. The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. The Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Cowboys are 13-6 SU and 6-13 ATS as home favorites over the last three seasons. The Giants are 7-3 ATS in October over the last three seasons. The Underdog is now 22-5 ATS in the last 27 Cowboy games. Lets ride it to the bank!

5*Kansas City Chiefs +4.5

Andy Reid's teams have been very good after the BYE Week going 13-5 ATS. The Chiefs come into this game knowing the Chargers have swept the season series in two straight seasons. The Chargers have a big game on deck against the Broncos. Lets fade the public and take the road team in this upset maker.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3

The Ravens do a good job of playing much better after a not so good performance. They committed three turnovers in last week's loss against the Colts. The host was outgained by 197 yards in losing to the Saints last Week, and has been outstatted in 10 straight games dating back to last season. NFL Teams that play the Saints are covering just 37% of the time in their very next game, since Sean Payton has been there.

4*Miami Dolphins +3.5

5*St. Louis Rams +7

5*Houston Texans +7

4*San Francisco 49ers -4

5*Baltimore Ravens -3

The home team is 13-6-1 ATS in Baltimore games. I am not sold on Carolina this year as a playoff team. The Ravens are a team on a mission after last year's flop, and they are 5-1 SU against the NFC South of late. Baltimore is even more physical than Pittsburgh, who Carolina had trouble with. I'll take the Ravens at home at minus -3 points or less.