5*Chicago Bears -3

This will the Buccaneers longest road trip so far this season and they have fewer days to prepare. The Bears are ranked #1 in total defense while the Bucs are ranked #29 at Football Outsiders. Chicago is ranked 10 spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Bears will have a huge advantage in special teams as well. There are distractions with Winston coming back so that means Fitzpatrick took less reps in practice. Tampa Bay has played three high-scoring games to begin the season and this feels like a flat spot to me. Take the Bears!

4*Indianapolis Colts +7

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

4*Washington Redskins +3.5

5*Indianapolis Colts +6

The Colts are my top selection in the Wise Guys contest. Love them in this spot. The Colts allowed the Bengals three scores in the final 19 minutes otherwise this line would be closer to 4.5 points. The Colts have an underrated front 7 in my opinion and they outgained the Bengals 380-330 last week. Washington defeated a team that is projected to be one of the worst. The Redskins ran 75 plays and you want to fade NFL favorites that run 70+ plays off a win. I know for a fact the oddsmakers inflated this line on purpose. The Colts with Andrew Luck at QB are a sparkling 10-1 ATS as underdogs when playing off a loss.

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -4

I don't play favorites in the NFL very often but this should be a great spot for the home team. The Steelers had a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter against the Browns and only managed a tie. I had Cleveland as a service selection so I was happy with that result. The Steelers committed 6 turnovers and I believe they will be extremely focused in their home opener. The public always remembers what they saw last and that's why this line has come down from the opening number of Steelers -5.5. At one high-limit sportsbook 82% of the bets are on Kansas City. They are pounding the Chiefs while the Wise Guys are all over Pittsburgh. I don't think this line will dip below 4. It might go back up though. The Steelers are 51-33 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the black and gold! 

4*Cleveland Browns +6

4*Houston Texans +7

5*New York Giants +3

The Giants should be much improved with new head coach Pat Shurmur running the show. The big handicap in this game is simple. The Jaguars have no clue what type of offense the Giants will be implementing. On the flip side, the Jaguars like to run the ball early and often thus making them kinda predictable. Take the home dog!

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Yes the Vikings have a terrific defense, but don't sleep on this Eagles squad. Philadelphia has the #1 ranked front 7 according to Football Outsiders. Minnesota is ranked 13th. The Vikings played seven true road games (one in London where the crowd was cheering for them) that produced just a +2 point differential. To that point, they are ranked 21st in Net yards per play on the road. Minnesota is coming off an emotional miracle victory, and I wonder just how much pep they will have. I like the Eagles who are in the same exact spot as last week. A home team getting points in playoffs. Almost unheard of. Take Philly!

5*New Orleans Saints +5

This is a rematch from week one when the Vikings defeated New Orleans 29-19 as 3-point road underdogs. Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook played big roles so that game is meaningless. New Orleans has gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in revenge games of late. The Saints are ranked 1st in Net Yards per play (6.3) while the Vikings are averaging 5.4 Net Yards per play, which ranks 12th. We get the QB (Drew Brees) and head coach with significant more postseason experience. Sean Payton is 7-4 SU in the postseason, including a Super Bowl victory in 2009. Mike Zimmer is 0-1. The Saints are ranked 1st in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. The Vikings are ranked 4th. The Saints have the better numbers in five of the remaining six key analytical stats. New Orleans is also ranked higher in time of possession, red zone efficiency, and the kicking game. This is a classic overlay. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Falcons played a very physical game last week and now must travel once again. Tough. This line would be Eagles -3.5 if Carson Wenztz was the starting QB. Yes he's the read deal, but Nick Foles has a lot of experience and his career QB rating is just six points lower than Matt Ryan. The Eagles have a strong running game (132.2 ypg) going up against a defense that is allowing 105 rushing ypg. The Falcons stop side is allowing a passer rating against of 88.4, which ranks last of the remaining playoff teams. Keep in mind, the Falcons are 6-12 ATS in all playoff games since 1993, including 1-6 ATS off an upset victory. Atlanta is ranked #15 in Overall Team Efficiency while the Eagles are ranked 5th at Football Outsiders. The Eagles are also ranked 5th in overall defense while the Falcons are ranked #22. Philadelphia is allowing just 211 passing yards per contest at home. Take the hungry and undervalued Eagles!

5*Carolina Panthers +7

These teams are very familiar with one another, and digging through the analytics I see some value on the underdog. The Panthers defense is ranked 7th at Football Outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 30th. That's a big difference and consider the Panthers are allowing just 88 rushing yards per game, going against the Saints who like to run early. Carolina is ranked just eight spots lower than KC in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. It's also very difficult for a team (Saints) to defeat the same team (Panthers) three times in a given season. Carolina is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs. I'll take the points in this upset special!

5*Tennessee Titans +9

I think this line way too high. The Titans are allowing less yards per game and per play than the chalky Chiefs. The game will be played in freezing conditions and both teams will be playing a run first, pass late offense. The Titans have really good players on the offensive and defensive lines. Marcus Mariota will be able to pick up some key first downs with his running ability. Tennessee is much superior at stopping the run. Wild Card underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense are cashing 66% over the past five seasons. This is a must take!

4*San Francisco 49ers +4.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

This one is quite simple for me. I believe the Bengals will play extremely hard in the last home game that Marvin Lewis will coach in. The Lions are a dome team having to play in very cold conditions where the kickoff temp is expected to be in the mid 30s. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS as home underdogs in December under Lewis. Take the Cats!

4*Tennessee Titans +7

10*Houston Texans +11.5

I have upgraded the Texans now that T. J. Yates will be under Center. Yates is 5-0 ATS in his career as an underdog and he played well in relief last week. Jacksonville is coming off a big win against the Seahawks last Sunday. Division home favorites are just 3-15 ATS after facing Seattle under Pete Carroll. This is a rematch from week one when the Jags crushed Houston 29-7. We note that Jacksonville benefited from a 4-0 turnover margin, while only gaining 280 total yards. The Texans remember how bad they played and have been waiting for this one. Also, double digit division underdogs are cashing close to 70% if they lost the first meeting by more than 20 points over the past decade. Jacksonville has played the fifth easiest schedule in all of football. Finally, the Jags have a huge revenge game against the Titans next week from a week two 37-16 home loss. Take the road dog!

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

4*Carolina Panthers +3

4*New York Giants +4

5*Seattle Seahawks +6

The Eagles are 10-1 SU which looks really good. However, nine of those 10 victories have come against teams with currently a losing record. The Seahawks have lost their past two home games so I would expect a big time effort in this spot. Seattle has a Net Yards per play of 5.9 at home while the Eagles check in at 5.8 Net Yards per play on the road. The Eagles held the Bears to a 38.3 passer rating last week. In the last seven times an NFL team has held their opponent to a passer rating of 40 or below, six of those teams have lost the game outright. This line would suggest that the Seahawks would be 12-point underdogs if this game was in Philly. No way that would happen. This line should be closer to 4.5 points. Lastly, the Seahawks are 17-9 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the hungry host!

4*LA Rams -120 (money line)

The Saints are coming off an emotional come-from-behind win against the Redskins last week. New Orleans hasn't played any game this season were the game time temp was above 75 degrees outdoors. The game time temp will be close to 80 and the Saints are more accustomed to playing indoors. The Saints home/road splits suggest they are much better at home or in a dome. The Rams are coming off a loss and they have been at their best in this role in 2017. The Rams' defense is holding opposing QB's to a 74.3 rating, which ranks 3rd. Also, teams off an overtime victory in which they scored 30 or more points, have been a great play against (14-3 ATS) if they play on the road against a winning team.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Tampa Bay has been solid on the road this season with a 5.7 net yards per play. My power rankings would make Atlanta 7-point chalk. The Buccaneers are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency while the Falcons are ranked 17th according to Football Outsiders. This line would reflect the Falcons ranking in the top 10. I believe this line is inflated so lets take the double digit points in this huge rivalry game. 

3*Dallas Cowboys +2.5

5*Chicago Bears +3

The key handicap to this game is a clear one. The Bears rushing attack (121.8 per game) going up against a defense that is ranked No. 32 in stopping the run at Football Outsiders. The Lions won last week 38-24, despite getting outgained by 68 yards against Cleveland. The Lions are ranked No. 32 in run-blocking and 23rd in pass protection. The Bears can't wait for this game. The host is ranked 4th in sacks and their defensive line is ranked 2nd overall at Football Outsiders. The forecast calls for temps in the low 30s and a tad breezy. The Lions won't be accustomed to those conditions. Detroit is 8-14 SU & 6-15 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. John Fox has been solid in his career after losing two or more games. Take the Bears in this upset maker!

4*Cleveland Browns +8

3*Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK

4*Cleveland Browns +11

4*Indianapolis Colts +10

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

4*LA Chargers +4

4*Cincinnati Bengals +5

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

The Buccaneers are not as bad as their record indicates. Tampa Bay has outgained five of its seven opponents so far this season. The Saints are ranked 3rd (6.1) in net yards per play while the Buccaneers are ranked 5th (5.9) so far this season. Solid. New Orleans has cluster injuries on their offensive line. Division road underdogs of 6 or more points coming off three or more consecutive losses have been very profitable this decade. Take the road dog!

4*Chicago Bears +9.5

4*Buffalo Bills -2.5

4*LA Chargers +7.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

The Steelers are coming off a very emotional victory, derailing the Chiefs from the undefeated ranks. The Bengals lost both games SU and ATS against Pittsburgh last season. I think the Bengals will be super focused coming off their BYE week. The Bengals have a real defense, allowing just 4.4 yards per play compared to 4.8 for the host. With this low total points should be at a premium. Take the home dog!

5*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Bears have a really good offensive line and sneaky good defense. The stop unit is allowing a QB rating of just 88.5 which is 9 points better than Carolina. The Bears are averaging 5.1 Yards per play with Trubisky which is an upgrade. He has all the skills to be a top-notch QB in this league. This will be Trubisky's third start and that bodes well coming off his best game with a 94 QB rating. Carolina is averaging 5.0 yards per play this season which ranks 24th. The Panthers have a huge revenge game on deck against the Buccaneers. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in October under John Fox. I think this line is way out of whack. Chicago is the best 2-4 team in the league and trending way up. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +5

The line on this game before the season started was Kansas City -2.5. I think this line is inflated based on how the Steelers looked last week. Big Ben five turnovers in one his worst performances of his career at Heinz Field. I think the Steelers will be super focused going against a Chiefs' team that has Oakland, Denver, and Dallas on deck. Pittsburgh has recorded the 3rd most sacks in the league while Kansas City has allowed the 3rd most. Great spot for the road dog!

4*LA Rams +3

5*Chicago Bears +7

Baltimore returns home feeling confident after their west coast upset at Oakland. The Bears have a sneaky good offensive line and a real defense, which ranks 6th overall, allowing 27 yards per game less than the Ravens. Joe Flacco has the second worst quarterback rating (71.6) this season. Mitchell Trubisky should be able to make some chunk plays with his feet while avoiding the pass rush. The Bears are ranked 27th in yards per play (4.9) while the Ravens are ranked 29th (4.6). The Bears are upgraded at the QB position now while the host is just 1-6 ATS in non-conference games of late. Take the road dog!

5*Dallas Cowboys -2

I had the Rams last week in part because I thought Dallas was looking ahead to this game. The Packers have eliminated the Cowboys from the playoffs in two of the past three seasons. Dallas really needs this game going into their BYE week. Dallas gets Anthony Hitchens (LB) and David Irving (DE) back and those two players should help going against a Packers' team that plays Minnesota next week. Take the host at -2 or less!

4*LA Rams PK -110

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5

4*Cleveland Browns +3.5

4*LA Rams +7.5

4*Chicago Bears +7.5

4*New Orleans Saints +6

4*Buffalo Bills +3.5

5*Chicago Bears +7

The Bears have a sneaky good offensive line and the defense seems more comfortable in John Fox's third year with the team. Mike Glennon is a former Buccaneer and the Bears should be pumped up for this game. His 84.7 QBR in his career ranks above average. Tampa Bay hasn't played a meaningful game in quite some time. I think this line is a tad inflated. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles have a top 5 offensive line and defensive line. That's a great combo and the Eagles have added some nice skill players. The Chiefs are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots. Fading home favorites after defeating the Super Bowl champion has been a key wise guy play for years. Take the Eagles plus the generous 6 points! 

4*Chicago Bears +7

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6

4*Tennessee Titans -1.5

5*New England Patriots -3

I think the Patriots' scheme will create mismatches against this Falcons' defense. A defense that has allowed the second most points in Super Bowl history. New England has outgained its opponent in nine straight games. These teams are perfect in the Super Bowl, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Patriots' offensive line is significantly better in pass protection, which is key in Super Bowl handicapping. New England has an underrated secondary that should be able to hold the Falcons to FG attempts on multiple possessions. New England owns the better red zone stats and is the more disciplined team. The Patriots have tons of "big game" experience, while the Falcons are a relatively young team. Nerves could creep in a little bit. That is a major factor and history has told us such. We get a future Hall of Fame head coach & QB with an extra week to prepare. Including the postseason, New England is 15-4 SU with an extra week of rest. I think this line is only heading higher. I like the Patriots by 7 in Super Bowl 51!

5*Seattle Seahawks +5

We are getting about an extra point with Earl Thomas not being able to play. These two teams are very familiar with each other and I think this will be a closer game than most people expect. I will gladly take the points with a defense that is ranked 22 spots higher (No. 5) than the host (No. 27), according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks have outgained their opponent in six straight games and have a ton of postseason experience. This game won't feel too big for them. The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS as underdogs with QB Russell Wilson under center in his career. Take the road dog in this spot! 

5*Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers defeated the Giants 23-16, as 7-point home chalk on October 9th. Green Bay outgained New York 406-221. Eli Manning has never really been good in extreme cold and temps are expected to be around 15 degrees. I think this line is soft and should close higher. Green Bay is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Packers own the better red zone stats which is key in the playoffs. We get the better coach with a ton of postseason experience. Take the host!

4*Miami Dolphins +10

4*NY Jets +3.5

10*Denver Broncos +3 (+110)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been outgained in six of their past seven games, and are allowing more yards than they gain this season. Denver plays with same season revenge from a 30-27 setback on November 27th. We note that the Broncos outgained KC 464-273 in that overtime loss. Denver has dropped two in a row and I think they will bounce back behind their defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 yards per play this season, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 65.6 passer rating. NFL teams are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS after playing the Tennessee Titans since Week nine. Super Bowl winning teams have been gold after losing exactly two games in a row. I'll take the points with the hungry Broncos in this spot!

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

This is basically the Bears' Super Bowl and they will fight to the end with John Fox as head coach. Matt Barkley has played well at the QB position. These two teams are very familiar with each other's scheme. Aaron Rodgers is hobbled and they are coming off an emotional victory against Seattle last week. NFL teams are 14-27-3 as favorites after facing Pete Carroll's Seahawks the previous week. The Bears have the better defense and sport an 89.9 QB rating against. Pretty good. Take the hungry host!

5*Tennessee Titans +5.5

Marcus Mariota is getting better with each game and will be ready for the coldest game of his career. The Titans strong running game (144.5 per game) should perform well against this current Chiefs' run defense (122.9 yards against) in frigid conditions. Kansas City has been outgained in five of their past six games. I'll take the better offense and defense getting five and the hook every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Take the road dog in this upset maker! 

5*Green Bay Packers +3

The Packers can't afford any slip-ups and should be primed for a big effort at home. It will be very cold and the Packers are more accustomed to playing in frigid conditions. Seattle is coming off an emotional revenge game against the Carolina Panthers, and they have a big revenge game on deck (Thursday) against the LA Rams. Earl Thomas is OUT and he is the QB of the defense. He will be missed in this spot. Green Bay is 30-13 straight up in December home games of late. Take the hungry host!

4*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

5*Arizona Cardinals -2.5

The Cardinals return home off a blowout loss against the Falcons and head coach Bruce Arians should have his team razor sharp. The coach has gone 4-0 SU after two consecutive losses in his Arizona career. They bring in the better defense and are holding opposing QB's to a 74.3 passer rating. The Redskins like to throw the ball and the Cardinals are solid against the pass, holding foes to just 195.1 yards per game. This is basically the Cardinals' Super Bowl knowing they can't afford another loss. Washington just played a physical game against Dallas and has a big game against the Eagles on deck. Arizona is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their past five games against the NFC East. Take the hungry host.

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Buccaneers have won two in a row and have historically played the Seahawks tough. In 2013, Seattle defeated Tampa Bay 27-24 in overtime, but failed to cover the 16-point home spread. Tampa Bay has a rising star at QB and should be able to score enough points against a defense that will be missing some key personnel. Seattle is making its third trip into the Eastern Time Zone and have traveled more miles than any other team not playing in London. Seattle has a ginormous playoff revenge game against Carolina on deck. Look for the Buccaneers to make it four straight covers against the Seahawks. Take the host!

4*Cleveland Browns +7

4*Washington Redskins +7

The Cowboys defeated the Redskins earlier this season, 27-23 as 3.5-point road underdogs in a game yours truly was on. I will fade them in this rematch considering the Redskins outgained Dallas 432-380 in the first game and the underdog has gone 24-9 ATS in the past 33 meetings. Washington has won the stats in six straight games and they rank No. 7 in overall team efficiency. They are a real NFL team and I like them in this big time rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day. Take the generous 7 with the road team and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

4*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

5*Baltimore Ravens +8.5

Baltimore is well-coached and have been fantastic under John Harbaugh as an underdog of more than 7 points. He's cashing 75% as an underdog of 7.5 or more points in Non-Conference games in his career. The Underdog in Cowboy games are on a 20-9 ATS run. NFL home favorites are just 13-32 ATS after playing the Steelers with Mike Tomlin as head coach. I can't resist taking the leagues top-ranked defense as more than a TD underdog. I'm going against Jo Public and will back the Ravens plus +8.5 points in this spot.

4*Seattle Seahawks +7.5

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -2

There are a few games every season when you think Las Vegas made a mistake with the line. This is a classic "trap" line. The Public will say I get Dallas and 2 points with a team that is ranked No. 4 in points per game and 4th in points against. The NFL doesn't work like that. The Steelers are in the middle of the pack in both, but this is more about how the Steelers played last week against the Ravens. I would expect the Steelers to play a much cleaner game against the Cowboys, who will be playing its second consecutive road game. Sometimes in the NFL you have to ignore the stats and go with your gut. And it's telling me that the Cowboys are due for a loss and the Steelers are due for a win. The Steelers normally bounce back after ugly games especially at home. Take the host!

5*New York Jets -121 (money line)

The Rams played a very physical game last week against Carolina and will now travel to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM body clock) game. Tough. The Jets should be focused in this spot especially after having some of their players suspended for the first quarter of last week's game. These two teams have very good defensive lines, but the Jets offensive live has looked much better to me. Take the host! 

4* Philadelphia Eagles +2

5*LA Rams +3.5

The Panthers are coming off a physical game against Arizona and will now play their first West Coast game of the season. This is not the same team that went to the Super Bowl in my opinion. Jeff Fisher has been excellent as a home dog in his career, especially off a blowout loss. The Rams are 0-3 SU in their last three games despite out-gaining all three foes. Fisher is 16-7 ATS as a home underdog off a loss of 7 points or more. The Rams' defense should bounce back with a clutch game and the host should enjoy a significant advantage on special teams. The Rams are ranked No. 2, while the Panthers are ranked No. 27 at Football Outsiders. Take the home dog in this one!

5*NY Giants -2

This will be the Eagles third division road game in four weeks. Tough. The Giants will have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles knowing Philly has swept the season series two straight years. Rookie QB's in this league are cashing just 30% when facing a winning team with a week or more of rest after week seven. Speaking of Carson Wentz, his QB rating has seen a steady decline up until the Cowboys game. Dallas had a week of rest and luckily got the cover. Teams now have tape on Wentz and they can see he's got a hitch in his throwing motion on occasion. The Eagles are just 4-10 SU and 4-10 ATS after facing the Cowboys of late. Dallas plays physical and most teams have a hard time bouncing back without rest. Swallow the two points and take the host!

3*Cleveland Browns +7

4*Green Bay Packers +3

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The public keeps pounding the Raiders as this line has moved from Tampa Bay minus -1 to plus +1. Oakland is winning with smoke and mirrors as they haven't out-gained any opponent this year. Oakland's defense is ranked No. 28 according to Football Outsiders which is surprising for a 5-2 team. Tampa Bay checks in with a No. 15 ranking in team defense. Pretty good. The Raiders have benefited from takeaways (+8) which explains their undefeated road record. The Buccaneers are allowing 350.7 yards per game compared to 430.4 for Oakland. I love the Buccaneers' pass defense (237.5 per game) against this Raiders' air attack. The Bucs have won two straight (both on the road) and really want to win this one in front of their home crowd. Tampa Bay is just 3-15 SU at home over the past three seasons. Ignore that trend. This is a different team in a very good spot as a home underdog. Oakland has a big game against the defending Super Bowl Champions (Denver) next week. Take the host to end Oakland's road winning streak!  

4*Houston Texans -2.5

4*San Diego Chargers +7

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3

4*Miami Dolphins +3

4*Jacksonville Jaguars -1

4*Dallas Cowboys +4.5

5*Washington Redskins +3

I am going against the public in this one and taking the Redskins as an underdog at home. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be playing their first division game and teams now have film on him and what the Eagles like to do on offense. Washington's defense has been getting stingier with each game and the Redskins check in with a 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs of 3 points or less of late. Take the host!

5*San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Chargers are this close to being 4-0, but sit at 1-3. San Diego outgained the Saints by 71 points in their 1-point home loss last Sunday. A game they led most of the way. Oakland is 3-1 but they have allowed season-high yardage to all four teams, and they have been outgained in every game this season. The Chargers always give the Raiders a close game (19-7 ATS in Oakland, including 10-0 ATS if the Raiders won their last game). Lets take the points with the better defense in this big division matchup.

5*Tennessee Titans +3.5

This is a game that has been on the Titans' calendar ever since last year's October 18th matchup. The Dolphins crushed Tennessee 38-10 and took out QB Marcus Mariota on a cheap shot with a hit below his knees. In that game Lamar Miller had a huge day. He's not on the roster anymore and Miami is averaging just 77.8 rushing yards per game through four games. The Dolphins offensive line is ranked No. 32 in pass protection, while the Titans are ranked No. 6 according to Football Outsiders. Tennessee owns the better offense and defense and were getting 3.5 points. I like that. Miami is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Dolphins have been outgained in 21 of their past 26 games. Big revenge spot and were getting some line value. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +3.5

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

5*New York Jets +2.5

10*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars are hungry for a victory and will be playing in London for the third straight season. Indianapolis has never played a regular season game in London. I really believe that's a significant advantage for Jacksonville. The Colts have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. I like taking division underdogs with the better defense. A defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game, compared to 400 for Indy. Dante Fowler Jr. is a full go for the Jags' defense. The Colts are coming off an emotional 4th quarter come-from-behind victory last week. This is a perfect spot for the Jags to win their first game and I think they will. Take the Jags plus the points.

5*Indianapolis Colts -127  (money line)

The Colts return home off their disappointing loss against the Broncos. The Colts fell apart in the second half and will now play a Chargers' team that has lost WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead to the same injury. Indianapolis needs a win in the worst way after starting the season 0-2. Andrew Luck is 16-5 straight up off a loss in his career, including 9-0 after a defeat of 14 or more points. The Chargers are just 5-12 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Take the host!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jaguars return home off their embarrassing performance in San Diego. Jacksonville should be pumped up for this game knowing a third straight loss to begin the season will really damper its playoff hopes. The Jags are 0-2, but have won the stats in both games. This team is poised to play a really good game. Baltimore didn't impress me in their comeback win against the Browns as Cleveland outgained the Ravens. Northern teams often struggle when playing games in the Sunshine state during this month. Take the home dog!  

5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

No team is as bad as they looked in the NFL and Vice Versa especially after week one. The Falcons should be able to score some points on this Raiders' defense. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay in their week one loss while the Raiders were outgained in its win over the Saints. Oakland's offensive line is very "nicked" up and their depth will be tested in this game. The Underdog is 14-3 ATS in Dan Quinn's head coaching career. While I am high on the Raiders this season, this is a role that Oakland has struggled with. The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games when installed as the favorite. I have the Raiders just 3-points better at home against Atlanta. NFL teams that are 0-1 facing a 1-0 team have a lot of motivation to not begin the season 0-2. Close game by a FG either way. Take the road dog this one!

4*Tennessee Titans +6

4*Cleveland Browns +5

5*New England Patriots +6

The Patriots have a very good defense, especially their front 7. The Cardinals' offensive line struggled early in preseason games and that was their first team unit. Carson Palmer is an above average thrower, but struggles with pressure in the pocket. Bill Belichick has been excellent with extra time to prepare and as an underdog. In fact, Belichick is 12-4 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more points in his time with the Patriots. I think New England with be just fine without Tom Brady for the first four games because of the brilliance of Belichick. Arizona has led the league in turnover differential for two consecutive seasons and that tends to regress to the mean over time. I will trust my numbers (2.5-point line value) and take the road underdog in this spot.