4*Cincinnati Bengals +6.5

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference last season. The Bengals net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens are +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play while the Ravens are ranked No. 21 this season. The Bengals are ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating while the Ravens are ranked No. 13. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase can't be stopped in the 4th quarter so the backdoor will always be open. Take the road dog! 

5*Las Vegas Raiders +4

5*Detroit Lions +3.5

The Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four week span. The Lions are playing hard and will continue to play hard. They love their coach. The Lions will be getting back two key players. Expect WR Tyrell Williams and DE Kevin Strong to be activated after both starters went down with a concussion in week one. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against teams with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!  

5*San Francisco 49ers +5.5

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as 6-point road underdogs last December with C. J Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Trey Lance which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget, the 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. The 49ers outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last week. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +3

This is one of the stronger technical plays in quite some time. Green Bay is favored from name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Bengals defense is ranked No. 5 (86.5) in opponent passer rating while Green Bay is ranked No. 18 (100.2). The Bengals are ranked No. 4 in special teams while Green Bay is ranked No. 19. The Packers will be missing numerous key personnel on defense which makes these stats even stronger. Joe Burrow's QBR is 53.8. Aaron Rogers' QBR is 55.8. Not much difference. Love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

4*Carolina Panthers +5

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest at 1:05 PM E. Dallas is caught in a Philly/Carolina/NYG sandwich. Just seems like a bad spot to me. I have many notes going back to the early 2000's that says fade Dallas at home against winning teams when playing at 1:05 PM E. It's not a start time they are accustomed too. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third down conversion percentage. You know how intelligent of a head coach I believe Matt Rhule is. He won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against winning teams. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past seven October games. I think we're getting one point of value so lets grab the five points ASAP. 

4*New York Jets +7

The Titans are dealing with numerous injuries up and down the roster. It looks like AJ Brown and Julio Jones will be out. Even if those two play, it won't be at a high level. New York will able to focus on stopping D. Henry. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss scoring 0 points. Returning home is the key handicap. The Jets have a sneaky good defense especially against the run. The Jets are ranked No. 13 against the run while the Titans are ranked No. 24 at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is only ranked three spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Jets should be able to run the ball on this over-rated Titans' defense. That should open up some nice play-action completions for Wilson and company. The Jets are ranked No. 14 in special teams while Tennessee is ranked No. 27 thru three weeks. Take the Jets in this upset special! 

4*Minnesota Vikings +2

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The Seahawks defeated the Vikings 27-26 as 6.5-point home chalk last year despite getting outgained 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 First down advantage too. After two games, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, than at home, now another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play against in game three. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams +1.5

Tampa Bay is 2-0 (at home) this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30+ points in nine straight games which is an NFL record. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. LA outgained TB 413-251. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. This will be the Buccaneers first game on Turf in quite some time, not to mention first game outside the Eastern Time Zone. Antonio Brown is OUT, who is a key weapon on the outside and running jet sweeps. Brady and company might be looking ahead to next week's date with the New England Patriots. Take the Rams in this upset maker!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Both teams are coming off week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as they looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback, while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 First downs while SF had 21. After week one, Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over SF. This will be the second straight road game for the 49ers after having played in a dome the week before. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average. San Francisco is learning a new defense going up against a duel-threat QB. Tough. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 underdogs over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC East of late. Lastly, the 49ers have two home games on deck against Green Bay and Seattle respectively. Take the home dog and try a slice on the money line too!

5*Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Saints are coming off a big upset victory against the Green Bay Packers. It was basically a BYE week as the Packers looked disengaged. Green Bay went 1-for-10 converting 3rd downs. This will be a completely different experience for the road team. It has been a crazy week around the Saints, dealing with coaches and one player in Covid-19 protocol. The Saints haven't had a "normal week" of practice since before Hurricane Ida. They are in Texas right now ahead of this game. The Saints will be without their starting Center (E. Mcoy) and backup Center. Tough. Carolina had 6 QB sacks against the Jets. This defense is very fast. Also Out for this game, Marshon Lattimore (CB) and Marcus Davenport (DE) with six more defenders listed questionable. The Saints swept the season series against the Panthers last season. Carolina did cover a 7-point road spread. Matt Rhule and company are taking this game very seriously. Take the generous 3.5 points and the money line (+160) as well!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I think the Las Vegas Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on MNF. Very emotional game for the silver and black. I think this Raiders' defense will have their hands full against a pissed off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Body Clock) against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, head coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career off a SU underdog win. Take the hungry host!

5*Detroit Lions +7.5

The Detroit Lions have a very good offensive line. They will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I think Garoppolo and Lance splitting reps doesn't help either. This line is super inflated. Home teams getting 7+ points in week one has been very profitable. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

Wow! The Bills' hype is off the charts right now. They will be good, but lets slow down on all the Josh Allen MVP talk. Mike Tomlin is a master motivator, especially as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 7.5-point dogs. The Bills defeated the Steelers 26-15 as 2-point home chalk in week 14. That victory cost the Steelers a No. 2 seed last season. The Steelers have been waiting for this game. Love their defense. Take the generous 6.5 points!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103)

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24, which is notable, because the team that won the regular season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. Check this out! No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's O'line is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay's defensive line is ranked first while the Chiefs' defensive line is ranked 25th. Overall team defense, TB checks in fifth while KC is ranked 22nd. I can't ignore the fact that KC is ranked dead last in red zone defense, by a significant margin. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS when playing on a grass field while Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS on that same surface. Tom Brady knows how to win Super Bowls and we're getting 3 to 3.5 points at their home stadium. Take the hungry host!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+102)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus like no other in this game. They should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only 3 points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus -3 turnover margin in the first game and Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions in game two. The Saints held the Bears to a 10% conversion rate on 3rd down last week. I don't see that happening in this game. Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense especially with very little crowd noise to deal with. The Bucs have a +0.9 net yard differential while the Saints check in at +0.5. The Saints point differential is +9.2 while Tampa Bay checks in at +8.5. Finally, the Saints are ranked 29th in red-zone defense which is the second worst mark of all remaining playoff teams. Take Tampa Bay plus the points risking no juice.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-103)

I think the Ravens wanted to play the Titans after losing to them earlier this year in overtime (blew a 21-10 3rd quarter lead) and in last year's playoffs. Don't forget, Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that playoff game. The Titans also recovered three of their own three fumbles in that 28-12 victory. This is not the same Titans defense. A stop unit that is ranked 29th in total defense and 30th in sacks with just 19. On the flip side, the Ravens are ranked 9th in total defense and 13th in sacks with 39 according to Football Outsiders. Special teams really matters in the postseason. The Ravens are ranked 2nd while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Ravens net yard differential is +0.7 while Tennessee's is +0.3. The Titans pass defense is allowing 7.0 pass yards per attempt which ranks dead last of all the playoff teams. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in third-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd.

The Titans have played 7 games in 7 weeks, with Derrick Henry receiving a huge workload, to the tune of 34 carries and 250 rushing yards last week to surpass 2000 for the season. Tennessee never really had a normal BYE week due to Covid-19. The Ravens are a bit more fresh having played just 6 games in 7 weeks. The Titans went 1-3 SU since week eight when facing QB's with a QBR of 70 or above at the start of the game. Baltimore's point differential is +10.3 while the Titans are +3.2. I think this line should be 4.5 to 5. The Titans have cluster injuries on their offensive line with Saffold, Wilson, Sambralio, and Lewan likely out. I will swallow 3.5 points and take the better team with the hungry Ravens.

3*LA Rams +3 (+103)

The Rams will start John Wolford at QB and he's got some running ability. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defending mobile QB's this season. That have no game tape on him. Advantage Rams. Wolford has been in McVay's system for two years and Aaron Donald thinks he will play well after seeing his preparation and practice every day for over two years. The Rams are ranked 4th in third-down defense and 2nd in opponent passer rating. The Rams are ranked 2nd in penalties committed while the Cardinals are ranked 32nd. The Rams are 3-1 SU after two or more consecutive losses under McVay and they lost their last home game to the Jets as 17-point chalk. Arizona is 1-4 ATS against winning teams this season. I have herd rumblings that Kyler Murray and the head coach (Kingsbury) are butting heads. I'll take the points with the Rams in what amounts to a playoff game.

10*Green Bay Packers -3

The Titans have scored 30+ points in five straight games and now must play their 4th road game in six weeks. The Titans have won and covered two in a row defeating cupcakes Detroit and Jacksonville. They now take a huge jump up in class. The Packers are motivated wanting a first round BYE and Green Bay scored just 3 points in the second half of last week's win over Carolina. Green Bay is ranked 9th in sacks (38) while Tennessee is ranked 32nd with just 14 QB take downs. Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball fairly easy against a not so good Titans' secondary. The Packers are ranked 18th in total defense while Tennessee is ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. Green Bay is ranked 10th in 3rd-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd. The Titans are ranked 29th in special teams and will have to play with a 50% chance of snow showers in the forecast. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 44 in games when the kick-off temp is below 40 degrees. The Titans converted 81.8% on 3rd down last week. These teams are fade bait the very next week especially against a quality opponent. The Packers are 19-9 SU and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. I love the cheese heads in this one!

4*Denver Broncos +6

The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in five straight games, including last Sunday's (night) thrilling win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a big division game on deck against New England. The Broncos are a sneaky good team ranking #1 in red-zone defense. Drew Lock is coming off his best performance of his career throwing 4 TD's at Carolina. I think he can ride that momentum into this contest. The Bills have played just three games on grass this season going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Broncos are 6-3 ATS on that same surface and 7-2 ATS against the AFC. Take the home dog!

4*LA Chargers +2.5

The Falcons are coming off a revenge game against New Orleans having played them two weeks prior. Atlanta's next three games are against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay again. Seems like a flat spot especially since the LA Chargers are coming off their worse loss (45-0) in franchise history. The Falcons committed just one penalty last week. I don't see that happening again. The Falcons' defense was on the field for 75 plays against New Orleans. They now must fly out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 19th. Atlanta likes to throw the ball a lot which is LAC's strength. The Chargers are ranked 6th, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Falcons are ranked 30th, allowing 285 passing yards per game. The Chargers are ranked 13th in red-zone defense while Atlanta is ranked 30th in that same category. The Chargers are allowing 5.5 yards per play (15th) on defense while the Falcons are allowing 6.2 (tied for last). I would expect a much better effort for the home team from what we witnessed against the Patriots. Take the points!  

5*Cleveland Browns +6

The Titans are coming off an emotional revenge blowout win against the Colts. They were all in having lost two weeks prior. To show you how focused the Titans were last week check this out. Tennessee is ranked 16th in opponent yards per rush (4.3), however last week they allowed just 2.7 yards per rush against a solid rushing and well-coached team. The Browns are ranked 19th in team defense while the Titans are ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. The Titans are ranked 29th in QB sacks (14) while the Browns are ranked 12th in sacks (27) this season. Tennessee is ranked #32 in third-down defense. A big reason why they are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The Titans have eight wins and the combined record of those eight teams is 40-47. Finally, last season in week 1 the Titans put a whipping on Cleveland 43-13 as 5.5-point road underdogs. Tennessee covered the spread by 35.5 points. The Browns actually outgained Tennessee 346-339. Baker Mayfield had 3 interceptions. The Browns have a much better coach and scheme this season. Take the road dog in this revenge spot!

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

The 49ers have two weeks to prepare against a division rival while the Rams will be playing on a short week after an upset win on MNF. A lot of bettors will take the Rams saying they have revenge. I'm not. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach and has been great as an underdog in the division. I think this line is too high in my opinion. Should be closer to 5.5 points. Don't forget, the 49ers are ranked 7th in third-down defense which is key in covering spreads. San Francisco has some Covid concerns but will get some talented players back as well. Take the points!

4*Atlanta Falcons +5

The Falcons are very familiar with Jameis Winston at the QB position after spending his entire career with Tampa Bay. I always like getting points with the more efficient QB. Matt Ryan is ranked #6 in QBR (78.1) this season. Atlanta has two weeks to prepare for this division game. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite of any kind. The Saints defeated SF 27-13 last week while getting outgained by 44 yards. SF also had a 21-17 edge in first downs. The 49ers committed 4 turnovers otherwise it would have been a different result. Atlanta is ranked 8th in third-down defense while the Saints are ranked 22nd. Lets take the points in this upset maker. 

5*LA Rams -1

Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Dolphins 28-17 despite outgaining the fish by 326 yards. The Rams have allowed just 10 sacks while Seattle has allowed 24 sacks. The Rams are ranked #1 in opponent yards per play (4.7) while Seattle is ranked #28 (6.2) this season. The Rams are ranked 3rd in third-down defense while Seattle checks in at #24. The Rams are ranked 10th in third-down offense while Seattle is ranked 30th, which is quite surprising. LAR has outgained the Seahawks in the past six meetings going 4-2 SU during that span. The Rams are ranked #5 (84.2) in passer rating against while Seattle is ranked #23 (98.2). Seattle is not the same on offense without Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Both are out again. They also have an injury list longer than my recent CVS receipt. In this division game, take the home team with the far superior defense and two weeks to prepare. 

5*Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Arizona dropped a tough one last week 34-31 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 130 yards. The Cardinals have scored 30+ points in four straight games. Buffalo is coming off its biggest win of the season and must now travel out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 13th. The Bills also lost two key offensive lineman in that big win. The Cardinals own the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. Arizona is ranked 7th in third-down defense while the Bills are ranked 23rd. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in passer rating against while the Bills are ranked 20th. Arizona is ranked 10th in total defense while the Bills are ranked 17th at Football Outsiders. I like the Cardinals to bounce back at home against a Bills' team off an emotional victory. 

4*Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The Dolphins are coming off a phony victory against the Rams. LA outgained Miami 471-145 and had 31 first downs compared to just 8 for the Dolphins. The Rams ran 92 plays and Miami must face an offense ranked 3rd in yards per game (424.6). Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. Tough spot for the Dolphins defense. Tua needs more time (reps) and his first road start against a rested well-prepared team does not bode well. The Cardinals are 7-3 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. This squad seems to be on a mission right now. Both teams are in the top 5 in third down defense, however Arizona is ranked 13th in third down offense, while Miami checks in at 29th. The Dolphins' offensive line and defensive line are both ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. Miami is 3-10 SU in games played on artificial/field turf of late. Lay it!

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+105)

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing setback at the hands of the KC Chiefs. I believe the 43 points were the most allowed by a team coached (Head, Defense) by Vic Fangio. Also, draw a line in Drew Lock's performance as he's never played well in the snow. It will be a much nicer day in Denver with temps in the low 60s. Actually, the Broncos outgained KC  411-286, but committed 4 turnovers. Denver ran 76 plays while the Chiefs ran just 51. Denver's defense should be relatively fresh. The Broncos are ranked 4th in third down defense in all of football. The Chargers ran 77 plays on offense in beating Jacksonville and now must play a pissed off Broncos team at high altitude. Tough. Finally, The Broncos have a passer rating against of 78.2 while the Chargers have a passer rating against of 100.1. Take the Broncos plus the generous 3 points with plus juice.  

10*Carolina Panthers +7.5

Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining Chicago by 42 yards. Carolina is averaging 6.0 yards per play while the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per play. On defense, Carolina is allowing 5.5 yards per play while New Orleans is allowing 5.2 yards per play. The Saints swept the Panthers last season, although Carolina did cover a 7-point spread rather easily in New Orleans. That was "back in the day" when stadiums would be packed with fans. This game will have no fans and this spread is way too high. I have it at 6 so we are getting 1.5 points of value. Carolina has a really good coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The new scheme on offense with Mike Davis at RB has been confusing opponents. Here's what I really like about this matchup and current line. Carolina's defense is holding opposing QB's to a 86.2 passer rating which ranks 6th. On the flip side, New Orleans is allowing a 108.2 passer rating against which ranks 29th. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the past five meeting. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the past three years. Finally, Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS as an underdog in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. 

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +101 (money line)

The Packers are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS so far this season. I think having their BYE week at this point is not beneficial. Keep in mind, players and coaches aren't allowed to leave the city where the team is located during the off week, as they must provide daily specimens for Covid-19 testing. Aaron Rodgers was quoted as being "pissed off" that he could not return home. Tampa Bay's defense is ranked No. 2 while Green Bay is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Bucs are allowing 4.9 yards per play while Green Bay is allowing 6.1 yards per play this season. Tampa Bay has 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday while outgaining Chicago 339-243. Green Bay not really accustomed to playing in hot and humid weather. Take the home dog! Check out the full quote below.

''Totally sucks,'' the 36-year-old Rodgers said after the Packers' Monday night victory over the Atlanta Falcons. ''That's all I can say about that. Obviously it is what it is, the situation. But especially as a older player, I look forward to the bye weeks immensely. I look forward to kind of a reset, recharging the batteries.''

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

I would normally look to play on teams that just fired their head coach. Most of the time those teams are underdogs. I don't think this Houston team is happy about the change. Romeo Crennel is 28-55 SU as a head coach in his career. The Jaguars have the better offensive and defensive lines according to Football Outsiders. I'm taking the points with the road team.

5*Miami Dolphins +7

The Dolphins will have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. Seattle is coming off two emotional prime-time victories and now must travel East for the second time this season. The Seahawks have been outgained in every game this season despite winning three one-possession games. Seattle has a long injury list to key players. They won't be 100% even if they play in the heat and humidity that is South Florida. Seattle is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so far this season. Playing against these teams in week four would make you a lot of money. Russell Wilson has a QBR of 86.2. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 81. Take the Dolphins plus the points in this upset maker!

4*Carolina Panthers +6.5

The Panthers are hungry for a win knowing they have dropped 10 straight games dating back to last season. Carolina played well in last week's setback outgaining TB 427-339. Four turnovers did not help. Teams usually are fired-up in the very next game after a star player (Christian Mccaffrey) gets hurt. The best handicap is the fact LAC just played an emotional OT game against a division rival. The Chargers ran 79 plays on offense while the defense allowed KC to run 70 plays. Tough. Head coach Anthony Lynn said "Justin Herbert was the backup for a reason". I would expect some growing pains in this game. Sure seems like a letdown spot to me. To back that up, the Chargers are 1-4-0 ATS in games after playing the KC Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under center (2017-2019). Last year, they played in week 17 which explains only 5 games with no pushes. Take the Panthers plus the points in this upset maker!

3*New York Giants +4

I like the Giants at home even without RB Barkley. I actually think their offense will be better for at least one game. The 49ers have numerous injuries including QB Jimmy G. Backup Nick Mullins has not had much practice time. Take the home dog!

4*Miami Dolphins +6

The Dolphins return home after allowing 217 rushing yards against the Patriots with a minus -3 turnover differential. Still, it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter. This team is well-coached and I would expect a much better effort. Buffalo defeated Miami in both games last season and should be pumped-up at home. Speaking of home, the Bills will have to play in the heat & humidity that is South Florida, with an expected heat index of 100-104 throughout the game. This will be a factor because the Bills ran a league-high 81 plays on offense last week against the Jets, while possessing the ball for 41:17. Both those numbers are insanely high. There is also a 55% chance of thunderstorms. Take the Dolphins plus the points!

5*Arizona Cardinals +7

The 49ers are a tad overrated in my opinion while the Cardinals are a tad underrated. Arizona looks improved on both sides of the ball with the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons all over the field. San Francisco has to deal with the Super Bowl loser hangover. Tough. They are really "nicked" up to start the season with a long injury list. This is another division underdog in week one that looks solid.

4*Washington Football Team +6

Washington should be improved on defense with Ron Rivera taking over. This team sports 5 first-round picks on the D-line. In week one, you want to take NFL underdogs that missed the playoffs against playoff teams from the previous year. It's one of the best angles in all of sports! Also, I like playing division dogs in the opening week. Take Washington plus the points.

4*Kansas City Chiefs-120 (money line)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been consistently good over the last five seasons with a combined record of 57-23. The San Francisco 49ers went 4-12 last season and 6-10 two years ago. It's simply not their time yet. Check this out. San Francisco has a net point differential of +8.4 on the road while Kansas City has a +11.8 point differential on the road. Last season, the 49ers were -5.7 and the Chiefs were +8.7. The teams that the 49ers' defense struggled against was Baltimore and Seattle. Two mobile QB's with a basic passing game. The Chiefs have a complex passing game and with two weeks to prepare you can expect some new wrinkles from Andy Reid and company. Andy is 18-3 SU off a BYE in the regular season. The Chiefs have allowed just 25 sacks (tied 3rd) this season while the 49ers have allowed 36 (15th). The addition of Terrell Suggs has done wonders as the Chiefs' run and pass defense has improved 4 spots since he arrived. The Chiefs are going to stack the box with run suffers. I don't think the Jimmy G. can keep up. He only attempted 8 passes against Green Bay. Patrick Mahomes QBR is 76.4 (2nd). Jimmy G. QBR is 58.8 (12th). The 49ers can't win this game without numerous chunk passing plays. The Chiefs come in hot winning six in a row. Make it 7!

4*Seattle Seahawks +4.5

The Packers have the better stats in offensive and defensive line play, but it's hard to ignore the fact in QBR comparison. QBR is a percentage so 50 would be average. Russell Wilson's QBR is 69.8 (6th) while Aaron Rodgers is 50.8 (20th) this season. It's been quite some time that any QB with a QBR of less than 55 in the regular season has reached the conference finals. Seattle is ranked two spots higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. I think this will be a very close game so I'm taking the points.

5*Buffalo Bills +3

The Texans are allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense while the Bills are allowing 5.1 yards per play. The league average is 5.7 this season. Teams that allow over 6.0 are usually one and done in the playoffs. Buffalo has a net yards per play differential of +0.3 while Houston has a -0.3 net yards per play differential. Buffalo's offensive line is ranked 16th while Houston's offensive line is ranked 22nd at Football Outsiders. Defensive line, Buffalo is ranked 12th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Team defense, Buffalo is ranked 6th while Houston is ranked 22nd. Buffalo is ranked 13th in overall team efficiency while Houston is ranked 19th. JJ Watt might return. That's okay. He's not 100% returning from an injury that normally takes 3-4 months to recover. Huge coaching edge to the road team. Buffalo 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Houston went 1-6 ATS when installed as the favorite. I like the Bills plus the points!

5*Arizona Cardinals +10

The Seahawks have played a lot of one-possession games this season. The one game they did win by margin was at Arizona. The Cardinals are a feisty team with a sneaky good offense. They are ranked #12 in team offense at Football Outsiders. Arizona is 8-4 ATS as underdogs this season. Seattle is 3-6 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season of late. Love the fact that Seattle plays San Francisco next week. Also, the Seahawks are really "nicked up". That injury report is long on some very key players. Arizona should be motivated to perform well for their head coach as the season wines down. I think this line should be closer to 8 points. Great value on the road dog!

4*New York Jets +3 (+110)

I'm taking the points with the much better QB. The Jets are getting two key players back (Williams & Adams) and should be motivated in their last home game. The Steelers play Baltimore next week. The Jets have 10 days to prepare after playing last Thursday. I like the home team in this one!

5*Arizona Cardinals +3

This is a tough spot for the road team. The Cleveland Browns are coming off back-to-back division games and they play Baltimore Ravens at home next week. The Cleveland Browns defeated the Bengals last week 27-19 despite getting outgained 451-333. Cleveland allowed 179 rushing yards and will now have to face an offense that likes to run a lot with a mobile QB. K. Murray QBR is 59.6 (11th). B. Mayfield QBR is 51.8 (19th). I don't think the Browns have the discipline on defense to stop Arizona from scoring in their last home game of the season. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Chiefs are coming off a big win against New England despite only scoring three points in the 2nd half. Patrick Mahomes hurt his hand and while he will play, look for the Chiefs to be a bit more conservative. I love division dogs with same-season revenge getting 10 or more points. Great value on the road team!

5*Oakland Raiders +3

The Titans are playing its second straight road game having won three straight overall. Tennessee has been outgained in two of those three victories. The Titans rank last in sacks allowed and will have to matchup against a solid front seven. The Raiders return home after two blowout losses on the road. Last week, they actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards in losing 40-9. Tennessee has scored 108 points in their past three games combined and now must play on the road against a hungry team. Tough. I made this line Oakland -1. Take the home underdog!

5*New Orleans Saints -2.5

The 49ers will be playing its second straight road game after a physical and emotional contest against the Ravens. The Saints have 10 days to prepare coming off a season-low 184 passing yards by Drew Brees. I would expect a huge bounce back effort. San Francisco had their BYE back in week four. The Saints had their BYE in week nine. The Saints are 20-5 SU in their past 25 home games. The 49ers are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in their past five Dome games. I will swallow the 2.5 points with the home team!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for this one after playing Houston on Thursday night. Frank Reich is a really good head coach and he should have this team fired up. The Titans' defense was on the field for a season-high 78 plays last week. Tough. The scoreboard shows a blowout win but if you watched that game you know four of the scores were fluky. The Titans are ranked dead last in sacks allowed (43 in 11 games) while the Colts are ranked 11th (21 in 11 games). Tennessee is 6-16 ATS in their past 22 games on field turf. Indianapolis is 40-19 ATS after a straight-up loss of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

I like the switch to Devlin Hodges who is an upgrade at this point of the season. I also like the matchup of the Steelers' front 7 against the Browns' offensive line. Pittsburgh will be pumped-up at home in this ginormous revenge game. The Browns will miss Myles Garrett on defense. Big coaching edge to the Steelers in this same-season rematch. Take the Steelers plus the generous 2.5 points. I would also try a slice on the money line.

10*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

The Seahawks have won four in a row and I think the BYE week will stop their momentum. When Seattle's BYE week occurs after week 8, they have not performed well on the road. Seattle has played the 9th easiest schedule to date. They have won four games by 4 points or less and seven of the eight victories have been by 7 points or less. They are rated as one of the worst 8-2 teams in quite some time. The Seahawks like to run and the Eagles are really efficient at stopping the run. The Eagles are ranked 3rd in run defense at Football Outsiders while the Seahawks are ranked 22nd. The Eagles are ranked 6th in total defense at Football Outsiders while Seattle is ranked 21st. Seattle is ranked 24th in opponent yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are ranked 11th (5.3). Philadelphia is ranked 5th in 3rd down efficiency on offense while only converting 23% against New England. I would expect a much better effort in this spot. Seattle ranks 14th in that stat and much worse on the road. The Eagles are playing their third straight home game after playing three straight road games. Teams off a SU and ATS loss in that third straight home game are cashing close to 70% since 2011. The Seahawks have allowed the 9th most fantasy points against TE's this season so expect Zach Ertz to have a huge game. Philadelphia is coming off a poor effort and they know this is a must win game. You might say it's the Eagles' Super Bowl. Jordan Howard and Alshon Jeffery are expected to return. Even if they don't, I'm all over the Eagles as a very short home favorite!

5*Miami Dolphins +6

These two rivals just played in Week 7. The Bills won 31-21 despite getting outgained 381-305. This will be the second of back-to-back road games for Buffalo. This team doesn't have a signature victory. The combined record of the six teams that Buffalo defeated are 12-44. There are no surprises. Both teams know exactly what each team wants to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a QBR of 61.1 (9th) while Josh Allen's QBR is 36 (31st). The Dolphins are playing hard for head coach Brain Flores. The Bills are 4-9 ATS as road chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Check this out. NFL teams are 1-7 ATS after playing the Cleveland Browns this season. I really like the home dog in this upset maker!

5*Green Bay Packers -5

The Packers return home off an embarrassing performance at LA Chargers. It was their second straight road game and they looked tired. Green Bay allowed a season-high 159 rushing yards. They will now face a team that likes to run a lot. The Packers run defense should be much better. Carolina won 30-20 at home despite getting outgained by 61 yards against the Titans. The Panthers have now been outgained in four straight games. The big factor will be the cold and windy weather that Kyle Allen must deal with. He has the second smallest hand size (9 3/8) in the NFL, compare to Aaron Rodgers (10 1/8). Kyle Allen has fumble issues because of his small hands. Temps in the low to mid 30s can't be good for a QB and team not accustomed to those conditions. Aaron Rodgers is ranked 11th (57.4) in QBR while Kyle Allen is ranked 23rd (46.1). Green Bay is ranked 8th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while Carolina is ranked 16th. I like the home team, with the better offensive line, quite a bit!

4*Cleveland Browns -2.5

I think the Browns will play one of its better games now that expectations are low. I was never high on them as we gave out Browns under 9 wins on Twitter. Buffalo is 6-2, but the combined record of those six teams are 9-42. I went against the Bills when they hosted Philadelphia and this is a very similar spot. The Bills are ranked 25th in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders while the Browns are ranked 24th. The odds-makers are begging the public to take Buffalo and they are. As of late Tuesday evening, 83% of the cash with 82% of the tickets on Buffalo. The Browns are ranked 4th in special teams play while the Bills are ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Buffalo is rated as one of the worst 6-2 teams in NFL history. Take the hungry host!

5*Carolina Panthers -4

The Carolina Panthers return home from getting embarrassed last week against the 49ers. They allowed 232 rushing yards which is the most in quite some time. Good defensive teams normally bounce back after really bad performances. The Titans will be playing its 9th straight game without rest. Tough. Tennessee is ranked dead last in sacks allowed (34) this season and will be without guard Rodger Saffold, who has graded high in his career. Carolina has recorded the second most sacks (30) this season, which seems like a huge edge for the home team. Only New England has more (31). Last week, Tennessee defeated the Buccaneers 27-23 despite getting outgained 389-264. They benefited from a +3 in turnover margin. The Titans defense was on the field for a season-high 76 plays. Seems like a flat spot for the road team. Carolina has held opposing QB's to a 76.7 passer rating which ranks 4th. The Panthers are ranked 15th in overall team efficiency while Tennessee is ranked 24th at Football Outsiders. Lets swallow the four points and take Carolina!

5*Carolina Panthers +6

I think this is a great spot for the road team. The Panthers have two weeks to prepare knowing they are 2-0 SU after its BYE week the past two seasons. I like playing on good head coaches with extra time to prepare. They always game plan something new that nobody has seen on tape. The 49ers are 6-0 this season, however the record of those six teams combined are 11-29. San Francisco has injuries on its offensive line. The Panthers have a tremendous front seven that can take advantage. Carolina leads the NFL in sacks with 27 in six games. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Eagles have lost two in a row while allowing over 400 total yards to the Vikings and Cowboys. The ladder being on National TV. The Bills are 5-1 but those five victories are against Miami, Tennessee, NY Giants, Jets, and the Bengals. Those teams have a combined record of 6-26. Also, teams are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS after beating up on the Dolphins this season. We get a pissed off team (especially on defense) getting to play a team that is challenged on offense. This seems like a great spot for the Eagles to turn its season around and get back to .500. Third straight road game for the Eagles but traveling from Philly to Buffalo is a short trip. Carson Wentz is ranked 7th in QBR (64.3) while Josh Allen is ranked 28th in QBR (37.2). This is one of the biggest QBR discrepancies in quite some time. The Eagles should win this game outright!

5*Indianapolis Colts -1

Both teams are coming off road victories against the Chiefs. The winner of this game will be in first place. The Colts lost to the Texans last year at home by a FG which dropped them to 1-3 at the time. Indy committed two costly fumbles or they just might have won. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for the Texans this season, and they have scored 84 points in their past two games. The Colts have two weeks to prepare and getting key players back for this conference rival. They won and covered after their BYE last year. NFL teams are 0-3 SU (two BYE's) after playing the Kansas City Chiefs with no rest this season. The Texans are going to miss rookie right tackle Tytus Howard who is out for at least a month. The Colts have the better offensive line and defense. Take the home team! 

4*Denver Broncos -2

This will be the Titans' third road game in four weeks and at high altitude. Tough. The Broncos are ranked 5th in run defense while the Titans are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 31st in pass protection. Look for the Broncos to pick up lots of sacks. Joe Flacco's QBR is at 59.9 which ranks 11th. Marcus Mariota QBR is 37.1 which ranks 27th. This seems like a great spot for the Broncos to pick up another win after upsetting the Chargers last week. Swallow the short number and take Denver! 

4*LA Rams -3

The Rams have lost two in a row and will now have 10 days to prepare. The 49ers are coming off a big win on MNF and will have to play on a short week for the first time in a long time. The look ahead line on this game had the Rams favored by 5.5 points. San Francisco will have to play this game without FB Kyle Juszczyk who is a big key to their offense. When he left game, the 49ers offense struggled mightily. There is going to be an adjustment period. Take the Rams to get back on track!

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Broncos are one of the best 0-4 teams in quite some time. They are this close to being 2-2. Lets start up front where the Broncos O'line is ranked 7 spots higher than the Chargers thru the first four weeks. Joe Flacco is ranked 9th in QBR with a 63.3 mark while Rivers is ranked 14th with a 55.5 QBR. The Broncos defense holds QB's to a 97.3 passer rating while the Chargers allow QB's throw for a 111 passer rating which ranks 27th. They really miss Derwin James on the back end. The Chargers just signed a new kicker and punter this week. Even with Melvin Gordon returning, I like the Broncos to be much improved at stopping the run after allowing 269 rushing yards to the Jags. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage. The road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 meetings. More of the same! 

5*New Orleans Saints -3

The Bucs come in feeling "fat" and happy after its big outright upset over the Rams last week. We had the Bucs as a 5* best bet. Speaking of big upsets, the Bucs came into the Super Dome last year in Week 1 and won as 10-point dogs. The Saints remember that game big time. This will be the second of back-to-back road games after a West Coast trip. Tough. Tampa Bay has scored 86 points in their past two games and now must play a road game in a dome. Tough. The Saints special teams is ranked #1 while the Bucs special teams is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Saints defeated the Cowboys last week despite not scoring a TD. This is a great spot for the home team. I think this line should be closer to 4.5 points. Take New Orleans!

4*Tampa Bay Bucs +10

The Bucs have a sneaky good offense and defense. Tampa Bay is ranked #7 at Football Outsiders in total defense. It's a small sample size but after three games this team is much improved. I was shocked to see that Winston owns a better QBR (38.3) over Goff (38.1). Tampa Bay is ranked #3 against the run while the Rams are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. In fact, Ronald Jones is the 8th most efficient running back while Todd Gurley is ranked 13th. The LA Rams have a road game at Seattle on Thursday. Mentally, this is a flat spot for the Rams. Bruce Arians has been great ATS after a straight-up loss, and he's taking a beating from the media for his intentional delay of game penalty. Tampa Bay outgained the Giants 499-384 in last week's setback. The Bucs will give a great effort. I like the road dog in this one!

4*Miami Dolphins +16.5

This line is way too high. I was thinking more like 14. The Chargers will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity that is south Florida. They are 1-8 ATS in their past nine tries in this role. I watched the entire Dolphins/Cowboys game last week and the Dolphins played much better than the final score indicates. They had a great chance to cover. While the organization may be tanking, the Dolphins' players are not. These are professionals that want to play hard because everything goes on tape in the NFL. Future jobs are on the line. Another handicap is the fact the Dolphins have a BYE next week. There has been six teams getting double digits before their BYE week and all six teams covered the spread. Take the hungry host against a Chargers team that is overrated in my opinion. 

10*Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The San Francisco 49ers return home all fat and happy after two straight road wins and covers. They have been away from home for 9 days as they stayed on the East Coast after winning at Tampa Bay. The Steelers showed me a lot in losing by 2 points after Big Ben went down. We get a fired-up team getting 7 points, against a team that is a tad overrated after defeating two teams that are 1-3 combined. Mason Rudolph has a full week to prepare as the starting QB. The team should be energized after trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who is an upgrade at Safety. Love the Steelers in this upset maker!

4*Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Cam Newton is in a walking boot. I'm hearing he's very doubtful to play this week. That means undrafted free agent Kyle Allen will get the start. Ugh. Even if Cam plays he won't be able to run the offense the way Ron Rivera and company are accustomed to. No run-pass option for sure which use to be the staple of the Panthers' offense. Arizona is playing extremely hard and this line will reopen at Arizona -1.5 so get down ASAP.

5*Indianapolis Colts -1.5

The public is hammering the Falcons based on what they saw last Sunday night on NBC. The Falcons were very fortunate to win that game. Atlanta is much better at home than on the road. Indianapolis has covered two straight road games to start the season after everyone was giving up on them after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. The Colts are well-coached and have lots of talent on both sides of the ball including a Top 5 offensive line. The Falcons have cluster injuries (at least two starters out) on their offensive line which came into the season ranked #22 by Pro Football Focus. The Colts defense has recorded eight sacks while the Falcons O'line has allowed five sacks. The Colts went 0-2 at home during the preseason despite outgaining both opponents by a combined 215 yards. The Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard is questionable with a concussion. I like the Colts with or without Darius minus the small number!

4*Green Bay Packers -3 (+100)

Minnesota is 3-0-1 SU against Green Bay the past two seasons. I love playing on new head coaches in home division games if the line is right. At -3 no juice this looks good. The Packers will have 10 days to prepare for this rivalry game. Green Bay has the significantly better offensive line ranking 17 spots higher at PFF. I like the Packers in this spot!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-119)

I love playing on most NFL teams returning home off a blowout loss. Seattle will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game against a team that is pissed off. Advantage Pittsburgh. The Seahawks escaped with a 1-point win despite getting outgained 429-233 against the Bengals. The Steelers offensive line is ranked #3 while the Seahawks O'line is ranked #23 at PFF. Take the hungry host!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7

Andrew Luck is gone but that doesn't mean the Colts don't have a talented roster. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Jacoby Brissett had been in this Colts' system and everybody loves this guy in terms of his leadership and work ethic. Just ask Bill Parcells who raves about him. Yes, Jacoby wasn't good in 2017, but that was a totally different system under than head coach Chuck Pagano. Frank Reich emphasizes quick passing and Brisett should do well, especially since the Chargers have cluster injuries in the secondary. Most notably is Derwin James who is their best athlete on the back end. What I really like about the Colts in this game is their offensive line is ranked 5th by Pro Football Focus. The Chargers offensive line is ranked 29th and this was when Russell Okung was healthy. He's out for this game. Last season, the Chargers O'line allowed pressure on 31% of Rivers drop backs. That ranked 25th in the league. Frank Reich was the Chargers offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. I think he knows how to defend Philip Rivers tendencies. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage like most teams. I love the Colts in this spot! 

5*Tennessee Titans +6

I think this line is way out of whack. Earlier in the Summer, I saw a lot of 3.5 and 4 points with huge public money pushing this line higher. The Titans are a solid team with the #4 ranked offensive line at Pro Football Focus. The Browns O'line is ranked 20th, and could struggle early. Mike Vrabel guided the Titans to a 9-7 record and to within one game of a playoff berth, all while navigating one of the NFL's toughest schedules. This should be a very competitive game so I'm taking the points.

3*Los Angeles Rams +3

I want to start off by saying my Super Bowl winner before the season started was the LA Rams over the Steelers. I will stick with it. You certainly won't get rich betting against Brady/Belichick for almost two decades. This is a light play for sure. With that said, I think the Rams have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. Playing on field turf should benefit the speedy Rams against the relatively slow Pats. Wade Philips faced Tom Brady and company numerous times when he was in Denver. They held Brady below his season average in almost every important QB stat. The Rams' defense is built very similar to those great Broncos' stop units although the Rams are a notch below. If Sean McVay was not the Rams head coach I would have liked the Pats when the line first came out. This guy is special and I don't think the Pats have a huge coaching edge. Sean McVay did coach against Belichick when he was in Washington. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins lost 27-10 with seven of those 10 points coming on a late garbage TD. Sean McVay said that loss kept him up all night and that the Patriots "took his team to the woodshed". The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 Super Bowls. Check this out. Since 2001, the team ranked higher (better) in Overall Team Efficiency at Football Outsiders has gone 15-3 in the BIG GAME, including three straight winners. That's a large sample size. The Rams are ranked #2 while the Patriots are ranked #7 this season. You know how much I love Football Outsiders when it comes to crunching numbers. They do a tremendous job. It's a great site. Take the Rams plus the points!

NFL BIG GAME props

Successful 2-point conversion: YES +225

Defense or ST TD: NO -230

Total Rushing yards Todd Gurley: OVER 65 (-120)

Total Receiving yards Julian Edelman  OVER 80 (-120)

10*New England Patriots -4

No team in the NFL has traveled more miles than the LA Chargers this season. This will be LAC's third straight road game and second straight Eastern time zone starting in the early slot. That game last week was very physical. The Patriots have the 3rd-ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders, including #1 in sacks allowed (21). I trust the coach/QB duo to game plan for the Chargers tired legs and pass rush. Look for the Patriots to spread the Chargers out, and utilize James White & Sony Michel in the passing game. New England should take advantage with Gronk as the Chargers are ranked #20 in defending the TE. The Patriots are ranked 15 spots higher in penalties per game. New England is ranked 4th while the Chargers are ranked 19th. Tired teams tend to commit more penalties too. I told you in my write-up last week that special teams means more in the playoffs and it certainly was a factor in the Eagles win. The Chargers are ranked 25th in Special Teams (worst among remaining teams) while the Patriots are ranked 16th. New England has won 7 straight games coming off a BYE in the playoffs by an average of 17 points per game. The Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season outscoring foes by 16 points per game and +111 yard differential. Also, this game will be in the mid 20s. That's 30 degrees colder than what the Chargers played in at Baltimore. Finally, we are getting the better head coach to say the least. The public is all over the Chargers. Not me. Take the Pats!

5*Dallas Cowboys +7.5

I love playing on NFL underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense in the postseason. The Dallas stop unit is ranked 9th while the Rams are ranked 19th at Football Outsiders. A big factor is the crowd. A 50/50 split seems more than likely. The Rams haven't played a meaningful game in almost a month. Both teams like to run a lot. The Cowboys run defense is ranked 3rd while the Rams run defense is ranked 21st at Football outsiders. Seems like a FG game either way to me. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles are built a lot like the Bears with a huge advantage in playoff experience. Big factor. Chicago's offensive line is ranked 30th at Football Outsiders, despite their gaudy stats. Very few NFL teams win playoff games with that mark. The QB's are comparable (Trubisky QBR= 72.8, Foles QBR= 67.4) this season. I believe special teams means more in the playoffs and the Eagles are ranked 11 spots higher. The Bears are ranked 26th which is the worst mark of all the playoff teams. The Chargers are ranked 25th so it's real close. The Bears have won & covered four straight games and they have a +12 turnover differential. Great fade bate. I love playing on NFL underdogs in the Wild Card round if they had to win their final game to make the playoffs. This has been gold over the years. Take the Eagles!

4*Buffalo Bills -3.5

The Dolphins are now 0-2 after that dramatic last-play comeback at home against the Patriots. Miami has been outgained in nine straight games. Red flag. I can't ignore the Bills 3rd-ranked defense at Football Outsiders compared to the Dolphins 24th-ranked stop unit. Also, this is a big revenge game for the host. Miami defeated the Bills earlier this month 21-17, despite getting outgained 415-175. You can be sure Buffalo has been waiting for this rematch. Miami will be moving on from Ryan Tannehill next season according to numerous reports. The Bills are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo over the past 13 years. More of the same with temps expected to be in the upper 20s.

5*Seattle Seahawks +2.5

This line suggests that the Chiefs would be 8.5-point chalk if this game was in Kansas City. Seems high to me. The Seahawks should be able to run against the Chiefs' last-ranked run defense at Football Outsiders. This will shorten the game and keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field. The Chiefs have a passer rating against of 104.7 in road games. Seattle is ranked 19th in team defense at football outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 27th. NFL winning home underdogs with the better defense are cashing close to 70% in December of late. Also, Seattle is 11-1-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2011. Take the Seahawks!

5*Philadelphia Eagles -124 (money line)

The Eagles are focused with Nick Foles under Center. This team is playing with passion and should be pumped-up in their last home game of the season. The Texans have been outgained in three straight games and have not committed a turnover in five straight games. Classic fade bate. This will also be the Texans second straight road game. They are 0-2 SU this season in that role. Houston has won 10 of 11 games with looks impressive. But, the combined record of the opponents Houston defeated is only 53-68. Finally, the Texans are 2-9 ATS in December games of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

I have watched every Cowboys game since 1982. I can tell you when they play at 1:00 PM E it hasn't been pretty. Why? They rarely ever play in this time slot. The Cowboys are coming off a high-emotional National TV game. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 455 yards in that OT thriller. Dallas ran 93 plays (3rd most this year) and I would expect the offense to be lethargic in this game, especially with a banged up offensive line. The Colts have allowed just 16 sacks which ranks 4th. Dallas has allowed 48 sacks which ranks 30th. That's a huge advantage for the host. We get the much better offensive line at home laying under 3. Love it. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 69.3 while Dak Prescott has a QBR of 53.8. The league average is around 60. Indy has a sneaky good defense. The Colts are ranked 11th at Football Outsiders. Dallas is ranked 7th. The Colts offense is ranked 13th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 25th. They have been better with Amari Cooper though. The Colts are ranked 11th in overall team efficiency while the Cowboys are ranked 17th. The Colts are second-best team at converting 3rd downs this season. Dallas is ranked 26th in 3rd down defense. Lay it!

5*Buffalo Bills -2

The Bills are 0-2 SU the past two weeks despite outgaining both opponents by +360 combined. Josh Allen is a tough matchup for teams that haven't seen him thanks to dynamic running ability. The Bills are ranked #3 in team defense at Football Outsiders while Detroit is ranked #29. Detroit won at Arizona 17-3 despite getting outgained 279-218. The Lions are 0-5 after a win by 14 or more points of late. Second straight road for the Lions and they are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS in that role this year. Josh Allen has a QBR of 57.1 while Matt Stafford check in at 50.7 QBR. I like fading dome teams playing in cold weather the final month of the season.

10*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

The Texans have won nine consecutive games which started in a Week four road victory over these Colts, by just 3 points in OT at the buzzer. Indianapolis outgained Houston 478-466, while sacking Deshaun Watson 7 times. Andrew Luck threw for 437 yards and now the Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Marlon Mack did not play in that game and he enters this contest averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the same exact average as Lamar Miller. Last week, the Texans won despite getting outgained 428-384. Houston benefited from a +4 turnover margin. Speaking of turnovers, the Texans have played two straight games without committing any. That's not sustainable. The Colts were shutout in Jacksonville, despite outgaining the Jags 265-211. The Colts' offensive line is ranked 14 spots higher at Football Outsiders. NFL underdogs with same-season revenge that own the significantly better offensive line have been gold through the years. The Colts are 3-1 SU in revenge games this season. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 74.6 which ranks 5th in all of football. Deshaun Watson has a QBR of 59.8 which ranks 17th. We get 5.5 points with the much better offensive line and QB. Love it. This is a must win game for a team that scored 0 points last week. Love it. The Colts are ranked #2 in Third Down conversion percentage this season. Houston ranks 14th. The combined W/L records of the Texans' 9 consecutive wins is 49-58. I'm not that impressed. The Colts are 8-2 ITS (in the stats) L10, while the Texans are 6-4 ITS L10. Houston is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season of late. I love the Colts in this spot! Try a slice on the money line as well.  

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-124)

The Chargers have won seven of their past eight games, but only the Seahawks had a winning record. The Steelers are coming off that meltdown against the Broncos and I really like them to bounce back at home. Philip Rivers completed 25 straight passes (NFL record) and set an an NFL record for completion percentage in a game (28 for 29). That will not happen again and you can be sure the Steelers defense will be ready. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in sacks. I always love fading teams/players off a record setting performance especially in football. The Chargers are ranked dead last in special teams play at Football Outsiders. The weather conditions should benefit the home team as well. Take the Steelers before this line climbs to four.

5*Buffalo Bills +5

The Bills offense plays better with Josh Allen under center. The advanced analytics prove it. His mobility is a big factor playing against teams for the first time. I can't say the same for the Dolphins. Brock Osweiler has a better QBR than Ryan Tannehill this season. The major handicap is the fact that the Bills have the 2nd-best team defense, while the Dolphins stop unit is ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Miami has not fared well against QB's that can run. In fact, the Dolphins have been outgained in nine of their past 10 games, including five in a row. Miami is ranked 29th in sacks. That should bode well for Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I don't think the warmer weather is a factor as the Bills had their BYE two weeks ago. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Miami has not defeated the Bills by more than 3 points since November of 2014. The Dolphins are 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games in the month of December. The Bills are well-coached and love them as a division underdog in this low-scoring game.

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+100)

This looks to be the trap line of the year. How can a Steelers team that is 7-2-1 be favored by just 3 points (opened at 3.5) in Denver who is 4-6. Here's why. The major handicap is the fact that the Steelers will be playing in back-to-back road games for the first time all year. The schedule makers were very kind to the Steelers so far this season. It gets tougher. Think about this. They fly to Jacksonville and play a high-emotional game winning at the very end in dramatic fashion. They hop on a plane and travel back home. Now, they make the long trip to Denver in altitude. The airport is about 1 hour away from the hotel/stadium. Long bus ride. Denver is ranked 4th in team defense while the Steelers are ranked 13th at Football Outsiders. The Steelers and Broncos are ranked 6th & 7th respectively in overall team efficiency. Denver has a sneaky good offensive line, ranking 5th while Pittsburgh is ranked 14th. Pittsburgh hasn't played against a pass rush like this Broncos' team possess all year. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in time-of-possession in all of football. At high-altitude combined with the Steelers playing on the road for the second straight week should bode well for the home team. Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games in Week 12. Denver is 14-7 SU & ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the Broncos!

4*Washington Redskins +7.5 (-115)

These two teams are no strangers to each other. Colt McCoy has spent many years in Texas and loves playing against the Cowboys. His two best games of his career came against Dallas. Colt McCoy has some skills that should keep this game close. Also, the Redskins defense is ranked 14th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 21st. Overall team efficiency finds the Redskins ranked 16th while Dallas is ranked 22nd. Washington is ranked 19 spots higher in special teams play. I don't think Colt McCoy is the answer long term but should be good enough in this game. Look for the Redskins improve to 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

5*Denver Broncos +7.5

The Broncos have two weeks to prepare for their division rival in a big time revenge spot. Denver got shutout (21-0) in Los Angeles on (12/22/17) despite outgaining LAC 251-242. LAC won the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the difference. The Chargers' defense has been on the field for 138 plays over the past two weeks. Tough. LAC has played a very soft schedule. In the Chargers' seven victories their opponents combined won/loss record is 18-37. Denver has played a very tough schedule. In the Broncos' six losses their foes combined won/loss record is 31-17. LAC is 10-33 ATS in their past 43 home games. LAC is 2-5 ATS after a SU & ATS win of late. I love the two headed monster with Royce Freeman (returning) and Phillip Lindsay at RB. This is a classic overlay so take the generous 7.5 points!

4*Seattle Seahawks -1

Seattle has dropped its past two games overall and at Centurylink Field. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games this season. The Packers have allowed 31, 29, 31, and 31 points in their past four road games. Jimmy Graham returns to Seattle knowing the Seahawks are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points against TE's this season. Advantage Seattle. The Packers are allowing opposing QB's throw for a 106.6 passer rating (25th) in road games. On the flip side, the Seahawks are holding opposing QB's to an 80.8 passer rating (7th) in home tilts. Seattle is ranked 19 spots higher in team defense at Football Outsiders and should enjoy a huge edge in special teams play. The home team is 8-2 SU on Thursday nights this season. The Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS on Thursday's since 1993. Take the hungry host!

10*Seattle Seahawks +10

Largest underdog role for Russell Wilson in his career. This line is inflated and will be going down for sure. Seattle was one dropped pass from a potential tie at the end of regulation last week against the LA Chargers. They would have needed a 2-point conversion as well. The Seahawks already played the Rams tough this year losing by just two points. Seattle has a real defense, allowing 333.3 yards per game compare to 348.7 for the Rams. The Seahawks are ranked 5th in team defense while the Rams are ranked 16th at Football Outsiders. Seattle is holding opposing QB's to an 83 passer rating while the Rams are allowing opposing QB's to a 94.4 passer rating. Don't forget, the Rams have cluster injuries at Linebacker and have played back-to-back emotional games against Green Bay and New Orleans. Finally, I wonder just how much "gas" is left in the Rams' tank. They haven't had a BYE yet. Seattle had its BYE two weeks ago. I love double-digit division underdogs with same season revenge. Especially, with a Top 10 QB. Take the road dog plus the generous 10 points!

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6

5*Seattle Seahawks -1

This will be the Seahawks first home game since the unfortunate passing of their owner, Paul Allen. Expect a very emotional crowd. Seattle is 4-1 SU in their past five games with the only loss by just 2 points against the unbeaten LA Rams. The Seahawks love playing at home where they are 54-18 SU since 2010. Seattle is ranked #2 in team defense while LAC is ranked #18 at Football Outsiders. The Chargers offense had been rolling, but the BYE week tends to regress those returning teams back to the mean. The Chargers are ranked dead last in Special teams play at Football Outsiders. These teams are cashing 35% when playing in Seattle. Take the Seahawks!

5*Minnesota Vikings -4

The Vikings deserved a better fate last week after outgaining the Saints by 153 yards in the 10-point home loss. Now the Vikings are home again knowing they haven't defeated the Lions at home since 9/20/15. Minnesota is holding opposing QB's to a 91.2 (13th) passer rating while the Lions are allowing opposing QB's earn a 114.2 (31st) passer rating. The Vikings are ranked 13th in team defense while the Lions are ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. The Vikings offense is ranked 18th while the Lions are ranked 26th. Don't forget, Detroit just traded their leading receiver in Golden Tate. The rest of the guys can't be happy with that. Detroit played a very physical game last week. NFL teams are 1-4 ATS after playing the Seattle Seahawks this season.

4*Minnesota Vikings -105 (money line)

I feel like the Saints are overvalued in this spot after what happened between these two teams last postseason. The Vikings are at home (15-5 SU L20) where they have been dynamite, the Bills game notwithstanding. Minnesota is ranked 13th in passer rating against (91) while the Saints are ranked 31st (112.2) at Football Outsiders. Wow! Not surprisingly, the Vikings have the better overall defense too. The Vikings will be pumped-up for this prime time affair and should be favored by 2 points. Take the home team!

4*Green Bay Packers +9.5

This line seems high to me. Green Bay has two weeks to prepare and get healthy. Aaron Rogers has never been an underdog by this many points. You don't think he knows. He does. The Packers are ranked #9 in time of possession. They should be able to shorten the game and limit the Rams' possessions. Both teams have big games next week. The Packers play at New England. The Rams fly to New Orleans. Take the road dog!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Broncos will have three extra days to get healthy and prepare for this same-season revenge game. In Week 4, Denver was leading 23-13 with 12:47 left in the 4th quarter, and than proceeded to lose the game by four points. The Chiefs offense looks unstoppable right now. But, 10 points to a team that has some favorable stats and has seen KC already. Love it. The Broncos are ranked 6th in passer rating against (85.4). That's a real stat when handicapping NFL games in 2018. Denver should be able to move the ball against this Chiefs' defense. The Broncos offensive line is ranked #7, while the Chiefs offensive line is ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Denver defense #8, Chiefs defense #26. Denver is ranked #10 in net yards per play (5.9) with KC #1 (6.9). Yes, the Chiefs stop unit looked great last week, but that's against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Cincinnati is a dumpster fire in prime time games with Dalton. This is a double-digit same-season division revenge game before Week 10. These teams are cashing 79% over the past decade. It doesn't happen often though so get down ASAP. I am pretty sure this line will close under 10.

4*Washington Redskins -1.5

4*Baltimore Ravens -2.5

5*Carolina Panthers +5

These two teams played last season but the Panthers are running a new offense. The Panthers should have an edge schematically. Carolina is ranked higher than the Eagles in all the important analytical stats I look for. The Panthers have played well (5-1 ATS past six years) in the second game after their BYE week. Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining the Redskins. The Eagles are coming off a win despite getting outgained 401-379. Take the road dog!

10*Denver Broncos +7

The Rams will be playing back-to-back road games with this one at altitude. Denver is returning home after a non-effort against the Jets and should be fired up after losing three straight. If any team is familiar with the Rams' defense and how to attack them it should be Denver, as Wade Phillips spent many years running the Broncos' defense. The Rams haven't played in Denver since 2010. Light snow and temps around 30 degrees in the forecast. Rams not accustomed to those conditions. I'm all over the Broncos in this spot.

5*Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for the Jets who are coming off a blowout victory against the Broncos. The Colts have a real pass rush (5th in Sacks) going up against a Jets team that is ranked 20th in pass protection. Andrew Luck has been solid off a blowout loss as an underdog in his career. Take the Colts in this upset maker!

5*Oakland Raiders +6

This line feels inflated to me, especially considering the Raiders' defense is comparable to LAC on a net yards per play basis (6.9 to 6.5). Actually, the Raiders' defense has a better QB rating against figure than the home team. Oakland could be the host as the stadium will have its share of of Raider fans. Oakland has been waiting for this matchup as the Chargers swept the season series last year. Both teams are not getting to the QB much as the Chargers have 8 sacks while Oakland has 5. The Chargers are ranked #31 in special teams while the Raiders are ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Oakland is being undervalued so far this season. The Chargers are nicked up on the offensive line. Take the points with Oakland and its 2nd-ranked offense at 442 yards per game. I wouldn't be shocked if this line closes at less than five.

5*Buffalo Bills +3.5

In the NFL, teams are not as bad or good as they look the week before. This has to be a trap line where the oddsmakers are begging you to play the chalk. The Bills return home after getting shutout while the Titans just defeated the defending Super Bowl champions in dramatic upset fashion. These teams are just 13-41 SU in the very next game. The Bills defense is sneaky good allowing 5.3 net yards per play, while the Titans are allowing 5.7 net yards per play. Tennessee has been outgained in eight of their past nine games dating back to last season. When the Titans defeated Jacksonville they were just +1 yard better in the stats. They have played back-to-back physical games and this has upset written all over it. Take the Bills!