4*Detroit Tigers -120 (Kirby/Mize)

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Detroit Tigers on Friday, but the home team is in a good position to bounce back after striking out ten times. In the 19 occasions this season in which the Tigers fanned 10 or more times, they are 13-6 (.684) in the very next game, an even better winning rate than their strong overall mark of .621. Detroit is 20-6 after any loss this year, and High-Strikeout games amplify that trend. Casey Mize (9–2, 2.63 ERA) is on the mound, limiting Seattle to a .212 batting average over 33 at-bats. George Kirby (3–4, 4.22 ERA) has struggled against the Tigers with an opposing batting average of .293 in 58 at-bats. I like the Tigers in this day game.

4*Tampa Bay Rays +113 (Pepiot/Flaherty)

The Detroit Tigers have won four consecutive games and continue to dominate Game 1 of series with a record of 24-6 this season. Detroit has a record of 14 wins and 15 losses in series Game 2s. Flaherty is allowing a .333 average and .964 OPS in 42 at-bats vs the Tampa Bay Rays, which includes an ugly performance (8 runs in 2.2 IP) against them earlier this season. Ryan Pepiot is holding Detroit to a .182 average and .606 OPS in 55 career at-bats, and Tampa Bay has won three of his last four starts. The Rays are big on analytics and have had great success when facing the same pitcher twice in less than a month.

5*Texas Rangers -103 (Rogers/Corbin)

This is a rematch from last Monday when Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles defeated Patrick Corbin and the Texas Rangers. In that game, Rogers threw over 100 pitches. Throughout his career, he has surpassed 100+ pitches five times. In his subsequent starts, he allowed two earned runs in 5.2 innings, two earned runs in 3 innings, four earned runs in 6 innings, five earned runs in 4 innings, and eight earned runs in 3 innings during the 2020 season. This will be his first start ever at Globe Life Field. Baltimore used two high-leverage pitchers from their bullpen on Sunday, and the team is currently ranked 26th in ERA, while the Rangers bullpen is ranked fourth. 

4*Minnesota Twins -105  (Castillo/Paddack)

Seattle has won two in a row, outscoring their foes 25-8. The Twins have lost four straight at home, getting outscored 46-16. Luis Castillo has pitched much better at home (2.60 ERA, .198 OBA) than on the road (4.59 ERA, .297). Chris Paddack has pitched better at home (3.03 ERA, .230 OBA) than on the road (5.48 ERA, .262) this season. The Twins have lost 14 of their last 17 games, but such streaks often motivate teams to play with added urgency, especially at home.

3*San Francisco Giants -121 (Dobbins/Birdsong)

Hayden Birdsong gets the call for the San Francisco Giants, who recently snapped their four-game losing streak with a victory over Cleveland. Birdsong has been terrific in his rookie season, with a 1.78 ERA and a .216 opponent batting average at Oracle Park. Hunter Dobbins has made consecutive starts against the New York Yankees, allowing only three earned runs in 11 innings. However, he has an ERA of 4.74 and an opponent batting average of .280 in road games. Despite their recent 8-2 run, the Red Sox have managed just a .205 batting average over their last 10 games and will now play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Rafael Devers revenge spot.

3*New York Yankees +129 (Yarbrough/Crochet)

Garrett Crochet and the Boston Red Sox defeated Ryan Yarbrough and the New York Yankees six days ago in New York. The pitching matchup was the same as today, and it’s tough for a starting pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. This is one of the most profitable MLB betting systems that I have utilized for over 20 years. The Yankees pitching staff have allowed the Red Sox to score double digits in the last two meetings. Boston is 0-5 after winning two straight games since May 1. I like the Yankees in this spot at plus money.

3*Milwaukee Brewers -138 (Vasquez/Patrick)

Randy Vasquez’s FIP is 5.34, and his xERA is even higher at 5.86. He allows 1.7 home runs per nine innings, ranking in the bottom 15% of MLB. His 4.1 walks per nine innings is well above the league average. The Brewers will focus on targeting him with left-handed hitters since he has a .828 OPS against them. Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers, and Brice Turang are set to take advantage. The Padres, coming off a four-game series against the Giants after Thursday’s day affair, will travel to an indoor night game with the roof closed. Chad Patrick has been much better at home (.221 OBA) than on the road (.280). A classic “sandwich” series for SD with the LA Dodgers on deck.

3*New York Yankees -108 (Fried/Gonsolin)

The LA Dodgers return home after a six-game road trip in the Eastern Time Zone. The New York Yankees have been playing baseball in California against the LA Angels and enter this matchup seeking World Series revenge. Max Fried has held the current Dodgers' roster to a .203 batting average and a .630 OPS over 187 career at-bats. I don't believe Tony Gonsolin can keep this determined Yankees team from scoring. I like the Bronx Bombers in game one.

4*Detroit Tigers -122 (Cecconi/Jobe)

The Detroit Tigers will start Jackson Jobe, who has pitched much better at home (2.30 ERA, .218 opponent batting average) than on the road (5.32 ERA, .250 OBA) this season. Cleveland will start seven left-handed batters, including switch-hitters. Jobe allows a batting average of .197 with 17 K's in 66 innings against left-handed hitters. The Tigers went 5-for-32, striking out 12 times and leaving 18 runners on base in yesterday's shutout loss. Detroit has a record of 11-3 after a loss since their opening series sweep by the Dodgers. Also, this will be Guardians' fourth game in three days, and I like fading that. Slade Cecconi has a career ERA of 6.03, with 92 strikeouts in 28 games over 109 innings pitched.

2*Chicago Cubs -143 (Taillon/Weathers)

This is the first system play of the season for winning teams. Last Wednesday, Ryan Weathers and the Miami Marlins defeated the Chicago Cubs and Jameson Taillon. It's challenging for a pitcher to beat the same team twice in six days or less. This is one of my best MLB systems, which has proven effective over time. It involves betting on winning teams with the same pitching matchup occurring within five or six days. Ensure each pitcher has been credited with a win and a loss in their first game. You should place your bet on the team that lost the first matchup. The Cubs are ranked first in OPS (.836) against left-handed pitchers and get to face Weathers after a loss.

3*Milwaukee Brewers -129 (Matthews/Peralta)

The Milwaukee Brewers are 8-for-62 with 26 strikeouts while scoring zero runs in losing the first two games of this series. I like the Brewers to bounce back and end the Twins' 13-game winning streak. Freddy Peralta is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA at home and 1-1 with a 1.85 ERA in day games. Overall, he has a .197 batting average against opponents this season. Play the Brew Crew.

3*Milwaukee Brewers +132 (Henderson/Williams)

The Milwaukee Brewers have been shut out in their last two games against the Guardians. On Tuesday, the Brewers' third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8. As a team, they are hitting just 10-for-63 with 18 strikeouts while trying to avoid a sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Gavin Williams has thrown 198 pitches over his last two starts and has pitched at least 195 innings in a two-game span twice during his career, but it hasn't gone well. If you combine the statistics from both of his following starts, Williams has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs in just six innings total. The Guardians have never seen Logan Henderson, an advantage for Milwaukee in a day game after a night game.

3*Texas Rangers +100 (deGrom/Flaherty)

The Rangers will be motivated to turn things around after a poor showing in the series opener (3-for-30 with 13 strikeouts). The second, third, and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-12 and struck out seven times. Jacob deGrom performs exceptionally well when pitching after a team loss, and his hard hit rate of 33% ranks in the 85th percentile. Jack Flaherty has a 3.79 ERA this season, but he has struggled in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs and 14 hits over 10.2 innings. Flaherty has an average exit velocity of 90.1 MPH, which ranks in the 37th percentile. The Tigers have a record of 1-6 this season when he is on the mound.

3*St. Louis Cardinals +126 (Fedde/Buehler)

The Boston Red Sox are back for their home opener after playing seven road games in eight days. I'm familiar with Walker Buehler from his time with the Dodgers, and he isn't performing at his best. Last season, he pitched 75.1 innings and had a 5.81 ERA. Batters hit .289 against him after he missed all of 2023. Let's take advantage of the Cardinals' strong offense against Walker. The Red Sox have not seen Erick Fedde that much, and he has performed well since last September. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of five starts, including his first outing of 2025. In the other start, Fedde was "human", giving up three earned runs. Solid plus money line.

4*Boston Red Sox -104 (Crochet/Eovaldi)

Both teams should be in the playoff hunt all season long. Garrett Crochet makes his debut for Boston against 35-year-old Nathan Eovaldi. The leading Cy-young candidate for the Red Sox has allowed zero extra-base hits, holding the Rangers' current roster to a .595 OPS in 18 at-bats. The Red Sox have 11 extra-base hits with a .769 OPS in 84 at-bats against Eovaldi. Crochet's stuff+ of 113 was much higher than Eovaldi's +100 last season. This is a great price, considering the significant difference in the pitching matchups.

3*New York Yankees -133 (Buehler/Schmidt)

The New York Yankees return home looking for a win to get back in the World Series. Clark Schmidt has held three Dodgers (Kiki Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Shohei Ohtani) to a .154 batting average in 13 at-bats. The rest of the Dodgers have not faced Schmidt. I don’t believe Ohtani is healthy, but he is an incredible talent. Walker Buehler has yet to pitch at Yankee Stadium in his career, and the Bronx Bombers are familiar with all of LA’s high-leverage bullpen arms. Teams returning home down 0-2 in the World Series have historically proven to be a profitable bet. 

3*Detroit Tigers -102 (Povich/Montero)

Keider Montero’s stuff+ rating of 96 was on full display in his last start, throwing a complete game shutout, albeit against the Colorado Rockies. The Tigers will have six right-handed batters and three southpaws to start the game. Cade Povich has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .303 with a .906 OPS, while lefties are batting .240 with a .700 OPS. Povich’s stuff+ is just 86, and will have to face a Tigers’ lineup whose three, four, and five batters went a combined 0-for-12 on Saturday. A strong system points to the home team.

3*Atlanta Braves +126 (Schwellenbach/Nola)

Aaron Nola has a 6.32 ERA with an opponent batting average of .343 against the Atlanta Braves this season. Nola has thrown at least 100 pitches in his last three starts. The Braves third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8 on Saturday. Spencer Schwellenbach’s xERA is 3.04 and has held this Braves’ roster to a .190 batting average, .214 slug, and .424 OPS.

3*Cleveland Guardians -127 (Eovaldi/Bibee)

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched much better at home (3.16 ERA, .195 average against) than on the road (4.87, .286 average against) this season. Tanner Bibee is holding opponents to a .226 batting average at Progressive Field. The Guardians are ranked first in bullpen ERA (2.68), while the Rangers have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA (4.44) this season. Cleveland owns a +46 run differential at home, while Texas is -62 on the road.

5*Texas Rangers +110 (Lopez/Mahle)

The Minnesota Twins will be playing their 11th game in 10 days as they attempt to complete a sweep of the four-game series in Texas. Pablo Lopez has never pitched at Global Life Field. He has a .348 batting average against, with a .638 slugging percentage and 1.038 OPS against the Rangers roster. Corey Seager has an impressive .667 batting average with three home runs in just six career at-bats against Lopez. The Rangers' third and fourth batters were 0-for-8 in yesterday's loss. Texas has a record of 4-1 in game four of a series this season. Minnesota must travel to San Diego after this game, while Texas will remain home. Two strong systems indicate a play on Texas.

4*Seattle Mariners +107 (Kirby/Skubal)

This is a rematch from last Wednesday when Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers defeated George Kirby and the Mariners in Seattle. Skubal threw a season-high 102 pitches, allowing three hits and two earned runs in seven innings. His August ERA of 4.73 is a season-high. The Tigers bullpen is ranked 22nd in hits (408), 21st in home runs allowed (55), and 22nd in bullpen ERA (4.16). The Mariners bullpen is ranked first in hits allowed (288), sixth in home runs allowed (41), and third in bullpen ERA (3.77). I like the Mariners at plus money.

3*Boston Red Sox -127 (Blanco/Houck)

This will be the Houston Astros' first away game since July 24 outside of Texas. Ronel Blanco has an ERA of 2.98, but his FIP is 4.43, with an xERA of 3.95. Tanner Houck has an ERA of 3.09 and a FIP of 3.08. He's held this Astros' lineup to a .208 average and .630 OPS in 24 at-bats. Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Vital features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. A score of 100 is considered average. Blanco's stuff+ is 95, while Houck's stuff+ is 109. I like the Red Sox in this spot.

2*New Yankees -156 (Gausman/Stroman)

The Yankees have won all three games against the Toronto Blue Jays when Kevin Gausman has been the starting pitcher this season. He’s coming off a game where he threw 118 pitches against Texas. The Yankees have a combined OPS of .815 in 143 career at-bats against Gausman. The top three hitters have the following stats: Aaron Judge is batting .297 with a 1.205 OPS in 37 at-bats, Juan Soto is batting .538 with a 1.596 OPS in 13 at-bats, and Giancarlo Stanton is batting .368 with a 1.166 OPS in 19 at-bats. The Yankees know that the Blue Jays are 3-0 in game one against the Bronx Bombers this season. Toronto’s lineup is significantly weaker due to trades and injuries. 

3*New York Yankees +106 (Stroman/Crawford)

The New York Yankees will face Kutter Crawford for the third time this season. I am sure they remember the last outing, seven shutout innings on Sunday Night Baseball. New York was in a similar spot last season and won 5-1. Kutter has an ERA of 3.33; however, his FIP is 4.24, which is concerning. Marcus Stroman has pitched better on the road (2.50 ERA) than Yankee Stadium (4.47). He’s holding this Red Sox offense to a .164 batting average and .430 OPS in 61 career at-bats. The Yankees bullpen has allowed the seventh-fewest hits (302), while Boston has the fifth most (366). New York is ranked eighth in run prevention (+9), while Boston is ranked 24th (-10).

3*Cincinnati Reds -103 (Lodolo/Baz)

The Tampa Bay Rays began their fire sale with the trade of Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners. I love playing on teams in the game after trading away a popular player in the clubhouse. Nick Lodolo has reverse splits as right-handed batters are hitting .210 while lefties are hitting .258. The Rays have just one true left-handed hitter in tonight’s projected lineup. Nick has an ERA of 2.84 with an average against of .173 on the road compared to a 4.05 ERA and a .257 average against at home. Shane Baz has struggled against left-handed batters with a .364 average against, a .606 slugging percentage, and 1.052 OPS. The Reds are ranked fifth in bullpen ERA (3.48), while the Rays are ranked 25th (4.37).

4*Baltimore Orioles -116 (Burnes/Eovaldi)

Corbin Burnes has an average exit velocity of 87.8 MPH, placing him in the 74th percentile. His hard-hit rate is 30.9%, ranking him in the 93rd percentile. Nathan Eovaldi's average exit velocity is 89.8 MPH, placing him in the 25th percentile, while his hard-hit rate is 43.3%, ranking him in the 17th percentile. There's a system of mine that advises playing against the host team in the All-Star game if their first game back is at home. Since 2001, every host team has played at home following the break. These host teams have a record of 7-15, including 3-9 since 2011. It's worth noting that there was no All-Star game in 2020. I like the Orioles in this spot!

3*Baltimore Orioles -123 (Steele/Suarez)

The Baltimore Orioles look to avoid the sweep, knowing they are 7-3 in game three of a series off a loss. Albert Suarez has pitched better at home (1.50 ERA, .212 average against) than on the road (3.31 ERA, .248 average against) this season. The Chicago Cubs will send a lefty to the hill for the second straight game. Justin Steele is coming off a gem, throwing a complete game while allowing just two hits and one earned run. The Cubs are just 4-9 when Steele is on the bump despite winning three of his previous four starts. Baltimore went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday, and they are ranked third in OPS (.786) vs. left-handed pitchers.

3*New York Yankees +111 (Stroman/Eflin)

The New York Yankees aim to make a comeback after losing game one. They had the same number of hits as Tampa Bay but left eight runners on base. Marcus Stroman has a 50.3% ground-ball rate (83rd percentile) and has held the Rays lineup to a .633 OPS in 40 combined at-bats. Stroman has performed better on the road with a record of 5-1 and a 2.54 ERA, compared to his home record of 2-3 and a 4.59 ERA this season. Watch Juan Soto, who has a batting average of .464 with two home runs and a 1.315 OPS in 28 at-bats against Zach Eflin. Tampa Bay has a -36 run differential at home, while the Yankees have a +67 run differential in road games.

3*Chicago Cubs -132 (Soriano/Wesneski)

The Chicago Cubs struggled on Saturday, with their third and fourth batters, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki, going a combined 0-for-8 with five strikeouts. Jose Soriano has never pitched at Wrigley Field and has a 45.6% hard-hit rate. Hayden Wesneski and the Cubs have a 0-5 record when he starts this season. However, he pitches well in day games with an ERA of 2.81 and opponents hitting just .211. The Cubs perform well in game three of a series following a loss, with a record of 9-4.

3*Cincinnati Reds -118 (Olson/Spiers)

The Cincinnati Reds have a record of 19-9 in the first game of a series, while Detroit's record is 12-16. The Tigers are on a long road trip, and Reese Olson will be their starting pitcher. Olson has never pitched at Great American Ballpark and has allowed a .955 OPS against the Reds' lineup, albeit in a small sample size. His hard-hit rate is 45.8%, whereas Carson Spiers, who has a 35% hard-hit rate, will pitch for the Reds. The Tigers have never faced Spiers. Olson threw a season-high 295 pitches in his last three-game stretch. Based on these factors, the Reds have the advantage in this matchup.

3*Kansas City Royals -111 (Littell/Singer)

Zack Littell has pitched much better at home than on the road this season. He has a 5.13 ERA with opponents batting .338 in road tilts. At home, he owns a 3.57 ERA with an average against of .250. Brady Singer has a 2.80 ERA with an average against of .206 at home. He owns a 51.2% ground ball rate compared to Zack’s 33.2% ground ball rate, a significant edge in a hitter-friendly park like Kaufman Stadium. The Royals home park ranks fourth in hits and runs since 2022. I like the Royals in this spot. 

3*Baltimore Orioles -115 (Scherzer/Suarez)

Max Scherzer hurled five scoreless innings in his season debut. He will pitch with a nicked-up thumb against a very potent offense. His last start in Baltimore did not go well. On September 16th, 2020, Max Scherzer hurled seven innings, allowing eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs at Camden Yards against a much less potent Orioles lineup. Keep an eye on Anthony Santander, who is batting .571 with two home runs and an OPS of 2.142 in seven at-bats against the future Hall of Famer in his career. The Texas Rangers haven’t seen much of Albert Suarez, who owns a 36.2% hard-hit rate. Baltimore has a +61 run differential at home, while Texas is -40 in road games.

4*Toronto Blue Jays +110 (Gausman/Bello)

Kevin Gausman has performed much better on the road than at home this season. His ERA at Rogers Centre is 6.43, with opponents batting .315, while his ERA on the road is 1.86, with opponents batting .201. Brayan Bello has been struggling in June, with an ERA of 6.43. Let's play the road team in this rematch from last Wednesday, where Bello and the Red Sox defeated Gausman and the Blue Jays in Canada.

4*Philadelphia Phillies -130 (Montgomery/Walker)

Both starting pitchers have not performed well this season. The Philadelphia Phillies remember the D-backs winning games six and seven in the NL Pennant in Philadelphia last season. The Phillies rank second in NL OPS vs. left-handed starters. They are 7-0 after a day off and 18-6 after a loss this season. Arizona is just 14-22 after a win. I have to play the home team in this spot!

3*San Diego Padres -110 (Cease/Megill)

Dylan Cease will have an extra day of rest as he and the Padres aim to avoid a sweep. He has a 36.6% hard-hit rate and usually performs well in early-day games. Tylor Megill relies on his four-seam fastball 50% of the time, and the Padres' Profar & Tatis Jr. are both ranked in the top 10 against that pitch in run value. Tylor Megill has a hard-hit rate of 43.1%, and his expected earned run average (xERA) is higher (4.31) than his current ERA (3.51). When he starts this season, the Mets have a 1-4 record and will travel to Texas after this game. I like the Padres, who have an 8-4 record in game three of a series following a loss.

3*New York Yankees +120 (Glasnow/Gil)

The New York Yankees allowed ten or more runs for the first time all season on Saturday. I see a lot of red for both starters, representing greatness on Baseball Savant's statcast page. The Dodgers haven’t scored a run in Glasnow’s last five starts when he’s been on the mound. The Yankees don’t want to get swept at home. LA is 5-5 on Sunday, while the Bronx Bombers are 8-2. New York is 10-2 when Luis Gil starts a game and has allowed one earned run or less in seven straight starts. Play the Yankees at plus money!

4*Kansas City Royals +119 (Miller/Lynch)

This will be the Mariners' first outdoor road game in the Central or Eastern time zone since May 26th. Bryce Miller's stats are impressive, but there are some concerns upon closer examination. He has a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a 34.9% ground ball rate. Seattle has a 12-6 record against left-handed starters, but they rank 23rd in OPS (.667) against left-handed pitchers. Daniel Lynch IV will pitch for the home team, and most of the Mariners' lineup has never faced him. The matchup looks favorable for the Royals, ranked fifth in defensive runs saved (+8), while Seattle is ranked 21st (-5). I thought this line would be -110, so let's take the home team at plus money.

3*Kansas City Royals +115 (Cease/Wacha)

San Diego will hit the road for the first time in over a week. The Kansas City Royals have faced Dylan Cease frequently during his time with the White Sox. The Royals have impressive statistics against him. Michael Wacha has an xERA of 3.38 and an excellent hard-hit rate of 32.1%. His change-up is one of the best in all of baseball. This is a fantastic price for the Royals, who are ranked fourth in run differential (+81).

4*Texas Rangers -131 (Sandoval/Urena)

The Texas Rangers will be up against a left-handed starter for the second consecutive game. The Angels have a 4-10 record in game two of a series, including 1-5 after a win. The Rangers' third (Lowe) and fourth (Garcia) batters in the previous game went 0-for-8. Texas has seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Patrick Sandoval has historically allowed a higher batting average against right-handed hitters (.271) than left-handed hitters (.185). Texas is ranked sixth (+9) in outs above average while the Angles are ranked 29th (-14). I like the Rangers in this spot!

4*Cleveland Guardians -124 (Maeda/Allen)

Kenta Maeda has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts and still has a 6.06 FIP. His biggest issue is that his fastball and change-up are only separated by 7 MPH. The Tigers rank 23rd in OPS vs. Lefties. Logan Allen has a solid 44.3% ground ball rate and should have success against this Tigers’ lineup.

3*Atlanta Braves -128 (Fried/Paxton)

The Atlanta Braves hope to avoid a three-game sweep as they send Max Fried to the mound. Max is a reliable pitcher with an impressive 67% ground-ball rate and a remarkable 25% hard-hit rate. James Paxton has pitched much better at night during his long career and has a 5.55 FIP this season. With a ground-ball rate of 38.7% and a hard-hit rate of 46.8%, it seems like a bad match against this Braves team. James Paxton has also had more walks (22) than strikeouts (15) in the 25.2 this season. Atlanta had just six hits in each of the first two games. The Dodgers' All-Star catcher, Will Smith, does not start in day games that follow night games. Play Atlanta!

4*Toronto Blue Jays -131 (Ragans/Berrios)

This is a rematch from last Thursday when Cole Ragans and the Royals defeated Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. If you have followed me through the years, you know this angle has produced more winners than any system in all sports combined. It’s tough for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in five days. The Blue Jays are ranked fifth in American League OPS vs. left-handed starters. Play Toronto!

3*Toronto Blue Jays -124 (Grove/Gausman)

It's daunting to go against the Dodgers, who have a six-game winning streak. However, the Blue Jays hope to avoid a three-game sweep by sending Kevin Gausman to the mound. Toronto's three and four batters, Varsho and Turner, had a rough day, going 0-for-8 with five strikeouts on Saturday. Nonetheless, Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Hence, I plan to add his home run prop. Following this game, the Dodgers will fly to Arizona for a series against the D-Backs. Play Toronto!

3*Cincinnati Reds -130 (Anderson/Lodolo must start)

The LA Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the hill. On the surface, he’s been excellent so far this season, with an ERA of 1.47. However, his FIP is 4.29, indicating how lucky the southpaw has been. Nick Lodolo will make his second season start after striking out ten batters in 5.2 innings while allowing no earned runs. Soft tossers with a low strikeout rate (Anderson) typically struggle at Great American Ballpark, so I like the matchup for the home team. The Reds managed just one hit in Wednesday’s loss and now return home looking to break out.

3*Arizona D-Backs -136

After playing multiple consecutive games outside, the Chicago Cubs will play their first road game in a true indoor stadium. The team is sending rookie Ben Brown to the bump, with a ground-ball rate of 35.7%, a 64.3% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 MPH, ranking last in baseball. Brown's pitching style may not be effective in Arizona, as he only uses two pitches. Merrill Kelly induces ground balls 47.1% of the time, allowing a 25.5% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH. He has consistently performed better in games played at Chase Field than away games.

3*Baltimore Orioles -133 (Hall/Kremer)

I love betting on winning home teams that lost by ten or more runs in their previous game. The Baltimore Orioles have won three out of four games this season after a defeat, and Dean Kremer has a perfect record of 3-0 after a loss dating back to the last season. Kremer has been impressive, as he has managed to limit the opposition's batting average to .170. DL Hall last pitched seven days ago and might be too eager to face his former team. Hall's numbers don't look great, with a 4.82 ERA and 4.97 FIP, suggesting he's still trying to figure things out. Additionally, his .350 batting average against is concerning. I like the Orioles in this spot! 

4*Houston Astros +121 (Javier/Scherzer)

The Houston Astros have been performing exceptionally well when playing away from home this season, with a record of 51 wins and 30 losses. When Javier takes the mound, Houston's record is 22-10, and they have dominated their last five games at Global Life Stadium, winning all five. On the other hand, Max Scherzer hasn't pitched in over a month and will have a limited pitch count. The Rangers bullpen has been struggling at home this season, with an ERA of 4.99. The Astros at plus money. Yes!

3*Toronto Blue Jays -104 (Cole/Berrios)

This is a rematch from last Thursday, where the Yankees and Cole beat Berrios and the Blue Jays. Gerrit Cole has pitched 200 innings this season and now is the time to fade him. Advanced metrics reveal that Berrios has a lower hard-hit rate of 35.8% compared to Cole's 39.7%. Moreover, Berrios has a lower average exit velocity of 1.1 MPH. It is worth noting that the Blue Jays had only three hits in their shutout loss on Tuesday. I like the home team to bounce back!

3*Texas Rangers -119 (Miller/Dunning)

The Rangers have a strong record against fastballs, which is good news since Bryce Miller throws that pitch almost two-thirds of the time. Unfortunately for Miller, his ground ball rate is just 32.4%, which may not work in his favor at Globe Life Stadium. On the other hand, Dane Dunning has a ground ball rate of 46.3%, which could be an advantage. It's also worth noting that teams that have recently swept the Oakland A's have historically performed poorly in their next game against a different team. I like the Rangers tonight!

3*Chicago White Sox +116 (Clevinger/Olson)

Mike Clevinger had a rough outing on Saturday, giving up eight earned runs against the Tigers, the highest in his career. Detroit beat the Yankees 10-3 in The Bronx on Thursday and now return home. Speaking of Clevinger, he has a career record of 57-37 with an ERA of 3.45 and has struck out 781 batters in 758.1 innings. Reed Olsen boasts a hard-hit rate of 40.6%, which is higher than Clevinger's hard-hit rate of 33.9%. I like the White Sox in this rematch!

3*LA Dodgers -120 (Pepiot/Garrett)

The Dodgers will start their young pitching sensation, Ryan Pepiot, with a batting average of just .163 against him and an impressive hard-hit rate of only 22.9%. Braxton Garrett has pitched a career-high of 140 innings. His ERA is 2.74 on the road, compared to 4.94 at home. His BABIP has increased to .309, and his hard-hit rate is at a season-high of 46%. The Dodgers aim to avoid a series sweep, having previously beaten Garrett at Dodger Stadium last month. Additionally, LA boasts an impressive 11-3 record when playing on Thursdays this season. I like the Blue Crew in this spot!

3*San Diego Padres -134 (Cobb/Lugo)

Alex Cobb has thrown 579 pitches in August, with a career-high of 131 in Tuesday's complete game. He won't even have four days of rest before this day game. The San Diego Padres have a lineup with an OPS of .785 in 108 career at-bats against Cobb. After this game, the San Francisco Giants will travel to Chicago. Therefore, it's wise to take the Padres in this spot!

3*Baltimore Orioles -115 (Kikuchi/Rodriguez)

The Orioles have a .950 OPS in 106 at-bats against Kikuchi this season. Baltimore is 30-14 against left-handed pitchers, ranking 8th in OPS vs. lefties. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are 11-23 against the AL East, whereas Baltimore is 24-14 in division games this year. Grayson Rodriguez has been showing consistent improvement every month. Keep an eye on Ryan Mountcastle, who has an impressive .583 batting average with four home runs and 8 RBI in 12 at-bats against Kikuchi. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -126 (Paxton/Javier)

The Boston Red Sox just swept their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees, and are now headed to Houston to face the Astros, who lost all three of their games against the Mariners. Since 2018, James Paxton has allowed a .350 batting average when pitching at Minute Maid Park. Houston has a 16-7 record when Javier takes the mound, and the Astros are ranked No. 4 in OPS against left-handed pitchers. The Red Sox have a 4-9 record when playing on Mondays this season. I like the Astros in this spot!

4*San Diego Padres +108 (Gallen/Hill)

This game will feature the same pitching matchup just five days ago when Gallen and the D-Backs emerged victorious against Hill and the Padres. Arizona utilized six relievers in their win against Colorado on Wednesday. As a strategic move, I prefer to bet against teams that played at high altitude without a day off. Consequently, this presents a favorable opportunity to bet on the home team at plus money.

4*Cleveland Guardians -157 (Clevinger/Allen)

This is a rematch from six days ago when Clevenger and the White Sox defeated Allen and the Guardians. Logan Allen has a sterling ground-ball rate of 42.9% and a 3.98 FIP. Mike Clevenger's FIP is 4.68 with just a 31% ground ball rate. It's difficult for a starting pitcher to conquer the same team twice in less than a week. Take the home team!

3*Philadelphia Phillies -116 (Kremer/Sanchez)

Dean Kremer's ground-ball percentage is 36.2%, while Sanchez has a 54.4% ground-ball rate. Interleague home teams have a high winning percentage in game one. Starting pitchers with a GB rate of 50% or higher usually pitch well in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies!

4*Toronto Blue Jays -115 (Darvish/Berrios)

Yu Darvish has pitched only once in Toronto since 2017, and it did not go well. The Blue Jays are ranked No. 9 in OPS vs. right-handed starters. The Blue Jays' third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8 yesterday, and the team didn't have any extra-base hits. Two players to watch are Brandon Belt, batting .333 in 18 at-bats against Darvish, and George Springer, also batting .333 in 18 at-bats against Darvish. Both players have hit two home runs against Darvish in their careers. Jose Berrios induces ground balls at 45.8%, which ranks in the Top 15. Darvish is ranked No. 74. The Blue Jays are ranked No. 1 in defensive runs saved (+47). Take the home team in this spot!

3*Baltimore Orioles -110 (Wells/German)

Domingo German is coming off a perfect game against the Oakland A's. He threw a season-high 99 (tied) pitches. I will take the road team in this spot!

3*Miami Marlins -127 (Mikolas/Garrett)

The Cardinals haven't faced a left-handed starter in the past five games. Miles Mikolas has a ground-ball rate of 37.6%, while Braxton Garrett's ground-ball rate is 49.1% this season. Garrett threw just 66 pitches in his last start and should be relatively fresh. Take the home team!

2*Seattle Mariners +111 (McClanahan/Miller)

Shane McClanahan was removed from his last start due to back tightness, but he will have eight days of rest before pitching again. Despite his impressive 2.23 ERA for the season, his FIP is higher at 3.65, and he had a season-high 2.70 ERA in June. Bryce Miller's ERA is 3.88, but his FIP is even better at 3.38. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in OPS (.719) for June, while Seattle ranks 18th (.701). It's worth noting that the Mariners have won 14 of their last 18 home games against left-handed starters. Take the home team for plus money!

3*Arizona D-Backs -126 (Bradley/Gallen)

Tampa Bay makes their first trip to Arizona for the first time since 2016. Zac Gallen has a 2.58 FIP, while inducing ground-balls 37.5% in his starts. Arizona is 11-5 when Zac Gallen is on the "bump" this season. Take the home team!

3*Miami Marlins +122 (Gausman/Alcantara)

Sandy Alcantara has been incredibly successful in day games, stifling opposing hitters with a .223 batting average since 2021. After a team loss, he’s been immensely dependable. Sandy has had an impressive run when playing against the AL, boasting a 9-2 record along with 3.36 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The only Blue Jay who has had much success against him is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is 5-for-7 with one home run in his career. The Marlins are proficient at putting the ball in play (ranking No. 9 in hits), and Kevin Gausman has an alarming .326 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Seems like a great spot to back the home team at plus money!

3*LA Dodgers -113 (Webb/Gonsolin)

The Dodgers are 21-10 after a loss this season, and they are coming off an embarrassing 15-0 defeat on Saturday. Tony Gonsolin is 30-7 with a 2.42 ERA in his big-league career, and has pitched great off a team loss. The Giants bullpen is tired, having pitched 13+ innings in their last three games. Take the blue crew!

3*Boston Red Sox -109 (German/Houck)

The Yankees and Red Sox are set to face each other again in a rematch from Saturday, when New York won 3-1. It's a difficult task for any starting pitcher to beat the same team twice in less than 7 days. I like to focus on a pitcher’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rather than the traditional ERA (Earned Run average) when handicapping baseball. Domingo's earned run average (ERA) is 3.49, however his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) for this season is 4.38. In contrast, Tanner has an ERA of 5.23, while his FIP stands at 4.30, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky this season. Tanner has a higher ground-ball rate of 50.3%, compared to Domingo's 39.3% this season. I like the Red Sox in this spot!

3*St. Louis Cardinals -104 (Cobb/Flaherty)

Alex Cobb has an alarming hard-hit rate of 44.2% and is coming off an injury; opposing hitters are batting .276 against him. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, will be pitching with an extra day of rest and has a much lower hard-hit rate of 33.7%, while holding hitters to a .249 batting average. The Cardinals have won 11 of the past 15 meetings against the Giants in St. Louis. Take the home team!

3*Seattle Mariners +123 (Gilbert/Musgrove)

Logan Gilbert's FIP is 3.14, while Musgrove's FIP is 4.71 this season. FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time. Logan is averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, while Musgrove is averaging 8.4 per nine, which has declined in four straight seasons. Seattle is 15-4 against losing teams. The Padres are 4-8 against the American League. Take Seattle! 

3*Texas Rangers -103 (Castillo/Gray)

Luis Castillo is a stud, but has an ERA of 5.06 on the road. His hard-hit rate is 37% this season which is usually high for him. Jon Gray's hard-hit rate is 30% (career best), while holding hitters to a .215 batting average. His three pitch mix (Fastball, Slider, Change-up) all have different speeds from the same arm slot. He does throw a curve-ball 7.7% of the time. Texas owns a +131 run differential which ranks No. 1, and they are 13-6 after a loss. Strong angle. Take the home team!

3*Texas Rangers +115 (Gray/Rodriguez)

Jon Gray is limiting hitters to a .222 batting average, while Grayson Rodriguez has a .295 batting average against. He throws five pitches and he's having a tough time with the pitch clock. His hard-hit ranks in the bottom third at 52.0% so far this season. Texas is ranked No. 8 in defensive runs saved (+8), while Baltimore is ranked No. 19 (-3). The Baltimore Orioles are 8-22 in their last 30 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take the road dog!

3*Chicago White Sox +120 (Cease/Allen)

This is a rematch from Thursday when Dylan Cease took the loss, despite allowing 3 earned runs at home. Logan Allen allowed just 1 earned run while throwing a season-high 102 pitches. The White Sox have a higher OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters than right-handed starters. I like the underdog to bounce back after getting shutout on Monday!    

3*San Diego Padres +126 (Snell/May)

This is a rematch from six days ago when Dustin May and the Dodgers beat Blake Snell and the Padres. It's very difficult for a starting pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. The Dodgers are batting .201 against left-handed starters. Lets take the road underdog in this big time rivalry game.

4*St. Louis Cardinals +134 (Mikolas/Webb)

This will be the Giants' tenth straight game without a day off. They finally get a break on Friday before a weekend series against division rival, San Diego. The Cardinals are trying to avoid a four-game sweep. Miles Mikolas is pitching better than his ERA indicates (FIP almost two runs lower) and he's averaging a career-high 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Logan Webb's hard-hit rate is 44%, which is on the high side. Since 2018, Miles Mikolas is 15-9, while holding all hitters to a .247 batting average in all day games. Take the red birds at a great price!

4*LA Dodgers -145 (Urias/Smyly)

Drew Smyly and the Cubs defeated Julio Urias and the Dodgers five days ago at Dodger Stadium. I will gladly play the LA Dodgers in this rematch. It's very difficult for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. Take the blue crew!

2*Seattle Mariners -102 (Gilbert/Civale)

This is a rematch from six days ago. It's very difficult for a starting pitcher (Civale) to defeat the same team (Seattle) twice in less than a week. The Mariners should be more relaxed away from home. Take the road team in this spot!

3*Philadelphia Phillies +116 (Wheeler/Darvish)

Zack Wheeler has pitched just 153 innings this season, while Yu Darvish has pitched 194.2. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .182, while Darvish has a BABIP of .273. This seems like a letdown spot for the Padres after winning three straight against their bitter rivals. Take Philly!

5*Philadelphia Phillies -115  (Morton/Nola)

Charlie Morton hasn't started in 12 days and he throws his curve-ball 38% of the time. That's not easy to do with that much time off. Morton also sports an ERA of 5.72 in road games, and is 2-5 with a 4.29 ERA in all day games. Morton's FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 4.26 with a WAR (wins above replacement) of just 1.5 this season. His hard-hit rate is an alarming 42.1%. Aaron Nola's hard-hit rate is just 31%, with a sparkling WAR of 6.3 this season. Nola is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in day games. His FIP is 2.58 and will be pitching with six days of rest. Morton has pitched 26.1 innings vs. Philadelphia this season, allowing a .301 batting average. Nola has pitched 34.1 innings vs. Atlanta, allowing a .227 batting average. The Phillies check all the boxes for me! 

4*Philadelphia Phillies -135 (Odorizzi/Nola)

This is the same pitching match-up from six days ago when the Braves defeated Aaron Nola. It's very difficult for a team to beat the same starting pitcher twice in less than a week. Very strong angle. Aaron Nola has one of the lowest hard-hit rates (31.9%) in all of baseball. I love his three pitch mix that features a 4-seam fastball, 12-6 curveball, and change-up. Take the home team!

4*Baltimore Orioles -117

Brayan Bello brings in a road ERA of 9.00 and 2.25 WHIP. His hard-hit percentage is rather high at 41%. Austin Voth's home ERA is 3.72 along with a 1.48 WHIP. His hard-hit rate is 37% this season. The Orioles are ranked No. 8 (+40) in defensive runs saves, while the Red Sox are ranked No. 17 (+10) this season. Boston is 1-6 in their last seven games against winning teams. Baltimore is 26-12 after a loss, and 11-4 in series game one of late. Take the home team! 

4*Minnesota Twins -115  (Bello/Bundy)

Dylan Bundy is allowing a 38.2% hard-hit rate with a sparkling 2.68 ERA at home. Brayan Bello is still learning how to pitch at the big league level. His 7.36 ERA and 2.09 WHIP are red flags. He's allowing a 41.7% hard-hit rate and walks almost five batters per nine innings. The Twins are ranked No. 10 (+30) in runs saved, while Boston is ranked No. 16 (+12) this season. Minnesota is 10-2 when playing on Mondays. Take the home team!

3*St. Louis Cardinals +107 (Morton/Montgomery)

Charlie Morton is 3-12 with a 5.23 ERA in 19 starts vs. the Cardinals. He hasn't pitched at Bush stadium since 2015. That's a factor. Morton's road ERA is 5.23 ERA, while inducing a ground ball 38.9% of the time. Jordan Montgomery has thrived in the Cardinals' pitching rich system and induces a ground ball 47.1% this season. St. Louis is ranked No. 4 in defensive runs saved (+54), while the Braves are ranked No. 15 (+16) this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 following a loss of late. Take the home underdog!

4*Minnesota Twins -120  (Wood/Ryan)

The Twins return home after dropping six straight games. Joe Ryan's home ERA is 2.95, and holds batters to a 29.6% hard-hit rate overall. Alex Wood hasn't pitched in seven days and brings in a 38.5% hard-hit rate. Joe Ryan is 5-1 after a pitching loss of late, and the Twins are 6-1 in their last seven home games vs. left-handed starters. Minnesota is ranked No. 12 (+26) in defensive runs saved, while San Francisco is ranked No. 29 (-35) this season. Take the hungry host!

4*Cleveland Guardians -125  (Lynn/McKenzie)

Wow! I thought this line should be closer to -140. The Guardians have been really good against fastballs and Lynn throws that pitch 60.2% of the time. Lance has a road ERA of 7.46 this season. Tristan McKenzie is holding hitters to a .198 batting average with a sparkling 2.81 ERA at home. Take the Guardians in this one!

4*St. Louis Cardinals -137 (Ashby/Mikolas)

The Cardinals are ranked No. 3 in OPS (.785) against left-handed starters in all of baseball. A. Ashby hasn't pitched in eight days, while M. Mikolas is coming off his worst performance as a pro five days ago in Colorado. The Brewers have a date with the Dodgers tomorrow. Take the home team in this one!

4*Atlanta Braves +130 (Strider/Degrom)

The Braves got swept in a double dip on Saturday. Jacob will be on a strict pitch count in his second start back. Strider's FIP is almost a full run lower than his 3.30 ERA. His fastball/slider combo has been excellent leading to eight strikeouts per game. Take the underdog!

5*Tampa Bay Rays -102 (Bieber/Springs)

Would you believe the Cleveland Guardians haven't faced a left-handed starter for the last 22 games (July 3rd). It's true. The Indians are ranked No. 29 in OPS (.613) against southpaws this season. Shane Bieber has a .303 BABIP (Batting Average on balls in play) while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate. Jeffrey Springs allows a 32.8% hard-hit rate and has three above average pitches. Fastball (92.1 MPH) 48.6% of the time, change-up (81.4) 29% of the time, and a slider (83.7) 22.1% of the time. The Rays are 9-1 last 10 meetings and 23-11 when the total is 7 or less. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -118  (Urquidy/Gonzales)

The Mariners have won 14 in a row heading into the All-Star break. I like fading these teams after taking four days off. Houston has a lot of momentum after sweeping the Yankees in a double header on Thursday. Light play on the road team!

3*Miami Marlins -105  (Suarez/Meyer)

The Marlins will start rookie right-hander Max Meyer, who ranks No. 21 in MLB top 100 prospects. Max has a plus fastball (92-98 MPH) and the best slider coming out of the 2020 class. Miami hasn't lost two straight to the Phillies in quite some time. Philadelphia is ranked No. 26 in defensive runs saved (-20), while the Marlins are ranked No. 10 this season (+20). Light play on the home team!

4*St. Louis Cardinals +110  (Nola/Mikolas)

The Red Birds look for a split in this four-game series. Philadelphia is ranked No. 28 in defensive runs saved (-21), while the Cardinals are ranked No. 7 (tied) this season (+30). With an expected low-scoring game, lets take the better defensive squad as a home underdog. The Phillies will be traveling to Canada after this game. Lots of distractions. Take St. Louis!

5*St. Louis Cardinals +101  (Wheeler/Wainwright)

Simple one for me. This is a rematch (same starters) from Sunday night when Philadelphia blanked St. Louis on Sunday Night baseball. I will gladly take the Red Birds at home as an underdog in this quick turnaround revenge spot. Get down quickly before the line shifts!

5*Cleveland Guardians +115 (Smeltzer/Plesac)

Day Action! This is a rematch from Thursday when Smeltzer out-pitched Plesac in getting the win. Devin Smeltzer's ERA is 3.05, but he's got a 4.93 FIP (fielding independent pitching). It's a more accurate stat of how a pitcher is performing. He has struggled on the road with a 4.87 ERA and FIP over 5.50. Zac Plesac has a 16.7 K-rate, while Devin has a K-rate of just 12.6%. Smeltzer produces a swinging strike just 7.4% of the time, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Zac's batting average against on balls in play (BABIP) is .275, while Devin checks in at .294 this season. I really really like the home team in this spot!

4*Atlanta Braves -127 (Rodon/Morton)

Charlie Morton has pitched better than his ERA indicates. His FIP is nearly a full run lower and Morton has 75 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. The Braves are ranked No. 5 in OPS (.821) vs. left-handed starters, going 16-7 this season. Atlanta is 19-9 after a loss, including 3-0 by 10+ runs this season. Take the home team!

4*Philadelphia Phillies -121 (Alcantara/Nola)

The line has come all the way down to where I think there's value on the home team. I also like Aaron Nola at home off a team loss. Take the Phillies in this one! 

4*Kansas City Royals -130  (Kremer/Keller)

3*Milwaukee Brewers -108 (Saurez/Alexander)

The Brewers faced Saurez early this season and should have a good read on him. Jason Alexander makes his second career start after pitching well in his debut. I love backing future prospects in their second start if they showed me something in the first outing. Milwaukee owns the better bullpen, and they are 22-12 vs. losing teams. Take the Brew crew!

5*Minnesota Twins -118  (Smeltzer/Lynch)

The Twins are 9-5 vs. left-handed starters with an OPS of .739 this season. Kansas City is 3-7 against lefties with an OPS of .650. The Royals will be without two key starters, including Salvador Perez. Minnesota gets the call in this massive underlay!

4*Seattle Mariners +122 (Gilbert/Berrios)

Jose Berrios has an ERA of 5.82 with just 24 strikeouts in 34 IP. I don't think he's completely healthy. His FIP is 5.13 which is well above his career numbers. The Mariners first four batters went 0-for-16 in yesterday's setback, totaling four hits total (3 singles, 1 double). Logan Gilbert took the loss pitching at Rodgers Centre last August and now returns a much improved pitcher. I like the road team!

10*Colorado Rockies -135  (Greinke/Freeland)

The Rockies return home after getting swept by San Francisco. The Royals will start Z. Greinke, who has struggled at Coors field. And that's when he was throwing in the mid 90s. I think the Rockies will feast on his "stuff". Kansas City is ranked No. 26 in OPS (on base+slugging) vs. left-handed starters. Kyle Freeland has been great at home off a team loss in his career. Colorado is 5-0 in their past five home games against losing AL teams of late. More of the same!

3*New York Mets -118  (Nola/Megrill)

The Mets were off on Thursday after Wednesday's ugly loss, allowing 10 runs. The Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams in league history. I like the Mets to get back on track at home in this one!

3*Oakland A's +224 (Jefferies/Rodon)

Seems like a tough spot for the favorite. The Giants return home from a long road trip, playing 12 games in 11 days--- against five different teams. SF will be playing its third game in a row against a different opponent. Not easy to do in baseball. This line is way too high. Take the road dog! 

3*Cincinnati Reds +157 (Musgrove/Sanmartin)

Last week, the Padres swept the Reds as part of Cincinnati's winless seven-game road swing. Joe Musgrove will head to the hill for San Diego in the opener in hopes of repeating his last outing against Cincinnati at Petco Park. The right-hander struck out seven and walked one, allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings. He earned the win in San Diego's 6-2 victory last Tuesday. The Reds will counter with lefty Reiver Sanmartin, who was the opposing pitcher to Musgrove last week. It's very difficult for a team to beat the same starting pitcher twice in seven days. I like the Reds in this spot!