4*Atlanta Braves +130 (Strider/Degrom)

The Braves got swept in a double dip on Saturday. Jacob will be on a strict pitch count in his second start back. Strider's FIP is almost a full run lower than his 3.30 ERA. His fastball/slider combo has been excellent leading to eight strikeouts per game. Take the underdog!

5*Tampa Bay Rays -102 (Bieber/Springs)

Would you believe the Cleveland Guardians haven't faced a left-handed starter for the last 22 games (July 3rd). It's true. The Indians are ranked No. 29 in OPS (.613) against southpaws this season. Shane Bieber has a .303 BABIP (Batting Average on balls in play) while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate. Jeffrey Springs allows a 32.8% hard-hit rate and has three above average pitches. Fastball (92.1 MPH) 48.6% of the time, change-up (81.4) 29% of the time, and a slider (83.7) 22.1% of the time. The Rays are 9-1 last 10 meetings and 23-11 when the total is 7 or less. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -118  (Urquidy/Gonzales)

The Mariners have won 14 in a row heading into the All-Star break. I like fading these teams after taking four days off. Houston has a lot of momentum after sweeping the Yankees in a double header on Thursday. Light play on the road team!

3*Miami Marlins -105  (Suarez/Meyer)

The Marlins will start rookie right-hander Max Meyer, who ranks No. 21 in MLB top 100 prospects. Max has a plus fastball (92-98 MPH) and the best slider coming out of the 2020 class. Miami hasn't lost two straight to the Phillies in quite some time. Philadelphia is ranked No. 26 in defensive runs saved (-20), while the Marlins are ranked No. 10 this season (+20). Light play on the home team!

4*St. Louis Cardinals +110  (Nola/Mikolas)

The Red Birds look for a split in this four-game series. Philadelphia is ranked No. 28 in defensive runs saved (-21), while the Cardinals are ranked No. 7 (tied) this season (+30). With an expected low-scoring game, lets take the better defensive squad as a home underdog. The Phillies will be traveling to Canada after this game. Lots of distractions. Take St. Louis!

5*St. Louis Cardinals +101  (Wheeler/Wainwright)

Simple one for me. This is a rematch (same starters) from Sunday night when Philadelphia blanked St. Louis on Sunday Night baseball. I will gladly take the Red Birds at home as an underdog in this quick turnaround revenge spot. Get down quickly before the line shifts!

5*Cleveland Guardians +115 (Smeltzer/Plesac)

Day Action! This is a rematch from Thursday when Smeltzer out-pitched Plesac in getting the win. Devin Smeltzer's ERA is 3.05, but he's got a 4.93 FIP (fielding independent pitching). It's a more accurate stat of how a pitcher is performing. He has struggled on the road with a 4.87 ERA and FIP over 5.50. Zac Plesac has a 16.7 K-rate, while Devin has a K-rate of just 12.6%. Smeltzer produces a swinging strike just 7.4% of the time, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Zac's batting average against on balls in play (BABIP) is .275, while Devin checks in at .294 this season. I really really like the home team in this spot!

4*Atlanta Braves -127 (Rodon/Morton)

Charlie Morton has pitched better than his ERA indicates. His FIP is nearly a full run lower and Morton has 75 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. The Braves are ranked No. 5 in OPS (.821) vs. left-handed starters, going 16-7 this season. Atlanta is 19-9 after a loss, including 3-0 by 10+ runs this season. Take the home team!

4*Philadelphia Phillies -121 (Alcantara/Nola)

The line has come all the way down to where I think there's value on the home team. I also like Aaron Nola at home off a team loss. Take the Phillies in this one! 

4*Kansas City Royals -130  (Kremer/Keller)

3*Milwaukee Brewers -108 (Saurez/Alexander)

The Brewers faced Saurez early this season and should have a good read on him. Jason Alexander makes his second career start after pitching well in his debut. I love backing future prospects in their second start if they showed me something in the first outing. Milwaukee owns the better bullpen, and they are 22-12 vs. losing teams. Take the Brew crew!

5*Minnesota Twins -118  (Smeltzer/Lynch)

The Twins are 9-5 vs. left-handed starters with an OPS of .739 this season. Kansas City is 3-7 against lefties with an OPS of .650. The Royals will be without two key starters, including Salvador Perez. Minnesota gets the call in this massive underlay!

4*Seattle Mariners +122 (Gilbert/Berrios)

Jose Berrios has an ERA of 5.82 with just 24 strikeouts in 34 IP. I don't think he's completely healthy. His FIP is 5.13 which is well above his career numbers. The Mariners first four batters went 0-for-16 in yesterday's setback, totaling four hits total (3 singles, 1 double). Logan Gilbert took the loss pitching at Rodgers Centre last August and now returns a much improved pitcher. I like the road team!

10*Colorado Rockies -135  (Greinke/Freeland)

The Rockies return home after getting swept by San Francisco. The Royals will start Z. Greinke, who has struggled at Coors field. And that's when he was throwing in the mid 90s. I think the Rockies will feast on his "stuff". Kansas City is ranked No. 26 in OPS (on base+slugging) vs. left-handed starters. Kyle Freeland has been great at home off a team loss in his career. Colorado is 5-0 in their past five home games against losing AL teams of late. More of the same!

3*New York Mets -118  (Nola/Megrill)

The Mets were off on Thursday after Wednesday's ugly loss, allowing 10 runs. The Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams in league history. I like the Mets to get back on track at home in this one!

3*Oakland A's +224 (Jefferies/Rodon)

Seems like a tough spot for the favorite. The Giants return home from a long road trip, playing 12 games in 11 days--- against five different teams. SF will be playing its third game in a row against a different opponent. Not easy to do in baseball. This line is way too high. Take the road dog! 

3*Cincinnati Reds +157 (Musgrove/Sanmartin)

Last week, the Padres swept the Reds as part of Cincinnati's winless seven-game road swing. Joe Musgrove will head to the hill for San Diego in the opener in hopes of repeating his last outing against Cincinnati at Petco Park. The right-hander struck out seven and walked one, allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings. He earned the win in San Diego's 6-2 victory last Tuesday. The Reds will counter with lefty Reiver Sanmartin, who was the opposing pitcher to Musgrove last week. It's very difficult for a team to beat the same starting pitcher twice in seven days. I like the Reds in this spot!

4*Atlanta Braves +113 (Fried/Woodruff)

The Brewers have not seen Max Fried since 2019. Milwaukee is ranked No. 23 in OPS against left-handed starters. It's been three years since Milwaukee has scored a run off Max Fried. Love the Braves lineup against Woodruff. Dansby Swanson should have a big game. Atlanta defeated Woodruff earlier this season without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Braves are 18-10 when Fried takes the bump. Away team gets the call!

4*LA Angels -124 (Hearn/Junk)

Taylor Hearn's ERA is 3.96, but his FIP is 4.79. Fielding independent pitching measures a pitcher's effectiveness at preventing HR's, walks, HBP, and causing strikeouts. It takes the randomness of balls in play out of the equation. Janson Junk was acquired in a trade with the Yankees. The Rangers have never seen him. Texas is ranked 14th in OPS (.678) against right-handed starters. The Angels are ranked 6th in OPS (.748) against left-handed starters. Second straight day the Angels face a lefty which is an advantage. The Rangers are 16-32 in day games. Take the home team!

3*Atlanta Braves -127 (Desclafani/Anderson)

The Giants will be playing their 13th straight game in as many days. They don't have their lineup out yet and it's just about 1 hour until game time. The Braves are 7-4 after getting shutout over the past three seasons. Light play on the home team! 

3*Atlanta Braves -123 (Gausman/Fried)

Max Fried has a 0.67 ERA in his four starts in August. In three career appearances, two starts, against San Francisco, he is 2-0 with 2.03 ERA. The Giants are dealing with numerous injuries to their everyday lineup. They just swept the Mets and now travel to Atlanta. Take the Braves!

4*Toronto Blue Jays -117  (Giolito/Ray)

The White Sox haven't faced a left-handed starter for five games and just one in the past 10 days. This will be the White Sox 10th game in 10 days. The White Sox banged out a season-high 18 hits in yesterday's 5-2 victory. I like the Blue Jays in this one!

3*Toronto Blue Jays -125  (Cease/Berrios)

Toronto will start right-hander Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) on Tuesday. Obtained from the Minnesota Twins last month, he has faced the White Sox three times this season, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. In 20 career starts against the White Sox, he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA. More importantly, Berrios is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA at Rogers Center since 2018. He's holding hitters to a .189 batting average.

3*Detroit Tigers +118 (Ohtani/Skubal)

S. Ohtani has pitched much better at home than on the road this season. His ERA is 4.54 with an average start lasting only 5.1 innings. The Angels loose his bat when he's pulled from the mound. The Tigers are 14-4 when playing on Wednesday and look to be a solid underdog investment tonight.

4*Atlanta Braves -105  (Gray/Smyly)

The Reds will be playing their third different team in as many days. Seems tough. Cincinnati is ranked No. 24 in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters this season. Gray's ERA is 8.16 over his past three starts. Atlanta has played well since the trade deadline (6-2) and I like them in this spot.

3*Milwaukee Brewers -107  (Cueto/Anderson)

The Brewers will look to bounce back after committing a silly mistake that led to yesterday's loss. Milwaukee will send Brett Anderson to the hill. He's been solid in day games as batters are hitting just .227 against him. J. Cueto has a road ERA of 4.91 and 1.58 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .319 against the former Red. The Brewers are 31-14 in day games this season. This will be the Giants' 13th straight game without a day off. They finally get one on Monday. Take the Brewers!

3*Cincinnati Reds -120  (Maeda/Mahle)

Kenta Maeda's ERA is over 5.00 on the road and August has always been a tough month for the former Dodger. Mahle has struggled at home, but has pitched well against the Twins. The Reds are 14-7 when he's on the bump while the Twins are 5-12 with Maeda on the hill. Cincinnati is 11-3 when playing after a day off this season. This line opened at -140, which I thought was high. Like the Reds at this current number for 3 units!

3*Cleveland Indians +103 (Wainwright/Quantrill)

Cal Quantrill (2-2, 3.84 ERA) will look to continue his strong pitching when he takes the mound Tuesday. Quantrill owns a 2-0 record with a 3.22 ERA in four starts in July after allowing one run on four hits in six innings of a no-decision versus Tampa Bay on Thursday. Adam Wainwright has an 5.35 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals are 2-5 against the AL and 5-10 when playing after a day off this season. Take the home team!

3*Milwaukee Brewers -123 (Giolito/Peralta)

Milwaukee has lost a season-high five straight home games and is looking to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games against Kansas City before Thursday's off day. The Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA), who is making his first start since July 10. Freddy's ERA at home is 2.11 while holding hitters to a .109 batting average. Lucas Giolito is coming off a complete game gem and hasn't pitch great in starts after complete games. His ERA is 4.98 on the road this season. I like the Brewers in this one!

3*Detroit Tigers -105  (Gibson/Mize)

Casey Mize hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 13 starts. The Rangers will counter with All-Star Kyle Gibson. Gibson has faced the Tigers 24 times in his career, going 10-10 with a 5.51 ERA. The Rangers played a double-header on Sunday. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Washington Nationals +119 (Snell/Corbin)

The Padres scored in every inning except the 7th in last night's 24-8 thrashing. Washington committed three errors in arguably their worst game in franchise history. Blake Snell is 0-3 with an ERA over 9.00 on the road. The Nationals are ranked No. 6 in OPS against left-handed starters while the Padres are ranked No. 18 against lefties this season. Corbin has been great off a team loss. Take the Nats to bounce back!

3*Chicago Cubs +128  (Wheeler/Mills)

The Cubs have dropped 11 straight games since that combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. The Phillies have smacked around Chicago in the first two games of this series by a combined 28-13 score. Philadelphia is 14-26 after a victory this season. I think the Cubs will find a way to win this game and stop the bleeding.

4*Cincinnati Reds -115 (Hendricks/Miley)

The Cubs conclude their long road trip, facing a left-handed starter for the first time in one week. They have not won since their combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. Sunday will mark Kyle Hendrick's 20th career start against the Reds, his 11th in Cincinnati. He is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA lifetime, including 2-5 with a 6.67 ERA in Cincinnati. He has allowed five runs or more in his last three starts in Cincinnati dating to Aug. 10, 2019, going 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA during that span. The Reds counter with lefty Wade Miley (6-4, 3.09). In six starts since coming off the 10-day IL, Miley is 2-0, 2.61. Reds batters scored at least 10 runs in five of his starts, including three of his last four starts, with the Reds going 5-0 in those starts. Cincinnati is 20-12 against the NL Central. Reds Sweep!

3*Cincinnati Reds -120 (Alzolay/Mahle)

Alzolay allowed a season-high six runs (four earned) in three innings in his last start on Sunday vs. the Dodgers. He is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in two starts since returning from the IL on June 21 and 0-3 with a 9.28 ERA in his last three starts dating to June 7. The Reds are 11-5 when Tyler Mahle takes the bump. Take the home team against the road weary Cubs.

3*New York Yankees -122 (Ohtani/German)

Shohei Ohtani exploded offensively with two more dingers on Tuesday. This will be Ohtani's first pitching start ever at Yankee Stadium. I just think he struggles against a Yankees' lineup who is ranked No. 3 in OPS over the last month. His ERA at home (1.73) is much lower than his road ERA (3.91). D. German is holding opposing batters to a .220 average this season. New York owns the much better bullpen ERA. I like the Yankees in this one!

3*Minnesota Twins -134  (Ober/Sheffield)

The Twins got crushed on Tuesday and have been hitting left-handed starters hard this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 5 in OPS against left-handed starters in the AL. Justus Sheffield struggled mightily with diminished velocity and hard contact from the Tigers his last time out, lasting a season-low four innings. Seattle is batting a major league low .191 at home this season. Baily Ober has impressed the Twins enough to earn this start. Twins avoid the sweep!

3*Houston Astros -128  (Valdez/Pineda)

The heart (three thru five) of the Astros lineup went a combined 0-for-12 in Saturday's setback. Framber Valdez's past two outings have both lasted into the eighth inning, and he has 22 strikeouts versus just four walks in 18 1/3 innings. The Twins haven't seen much of him. On the flip side, the Astros have hit Pineda hard in the past. His ERA is over 5.00 against Houston since 2017. Take the road team!

3*Minnesota Twins +101 (Garcia/Berrios)

The Twins are now a home underdog after a lot of money bet on the Houston Astros. Jose Berrios has been excellent off a team loss in his career. He's won five starts in a row and held the Astros to two earned runs in last year's wild card game. Luis Garcia has been great, but I like the Twins in this spot. Take the home underdog!

4*Houston Astros +103 (Garcia/Matz)

Luis Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts, throwing a career-high seven innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox in his last start. This will be his first career start against the Blue Jays which helps Houston in my opinion The Astros saw Matz on May 8th. He allowed three earned runs on eight hits with four strikeouts. Houston is ranked No. 2 in OPS (american league) against left-handed starters. I think the Astros will score early and often in this spot!

3*Atlanta Braves -134 (Strasburgh/Fried)

Max Fried has allowed exactly one run in each of the four starts he has made since returning from the injured list. He's pitched extremely well at home over his career. The Nationals are 4-7 against left-handed starters this season. Light play on the home team!

3*Cleveland Indians +118 (Hentges/Turnbull)

Spencer Turnbull makes his first start since his no-hitter on Tuesday. He’s 0-6 with a 5.18 ERA in nine career appearances against the Indians, who have hit .325 and slugged .482 against him. The Tigers are ranked dead last in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters in all of baseball. Light play on the road team.

4*New York Yankees -102  (Rodon/Montgomery)

Both teams are red hot this month. The Yankees are 13-5 while Chicago is 12-5. The Yankees have seen a lot of Rodon. On the flip side, the White Sox have very few at-bats against Montgomery. I have a gut feeling that the Yankees are the right side.

4*Colorado Rockies -102 (Miley/Marquez)

I am fading Wade Miley off his no-hitter. The Rockies are ranked No. 2 in batting average and No. 5 in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters this season. Colorado is batting .292 against Miley at Coors Field. German Marquez has a lot more experience pitching at high-altitude than Miley. Take the Rockies!

4*Washington Nationals -127 (Anderson/Fedde)

I like the pitching matchup and the Nats usually play well against Philadelphia in game one at home ever since Bryce Harper left. Take the home team!

10*New York Mets -125 (Gallen/Peterson)

The Mets salvaged a four-game split after defeating the Cardinals on Thursday. They stranded 17 runners which is a franchise record for a 9-inning game. Arizona got swept in Florida and now play outdoors for the first time in three games. Tough. The Diamondbacks are 2-5 against left-handed starters and 1-8 in their past nine games at New York Mets. Dave Peterson has a nasty slider and the Mets have never seen him. The D-backs are also dealing with numerous injuries to their starting lineup. The Mets' bullpen has an ERA of almost two runs lower than Arizona. Take the Mets! 

4*St. Louis Cardinals -104 (Wheeler/Wainwright)

I will fade the Phillies after playing a three-game series at Colorado. Zack Wheeler has been much better at home than on the road. The Cardinals have the better run differential and bullpen so far this season. I like the red birds!

4*Chicago White Sox -140 (Dunning/Cease)

Dane Dunning returns to Chicago, where he made his Major League debut with the White Sox last season. He heads into his fourth start with a 0.60 ERA on the year. Playing against pitchers with an ERA below 1.00 in their fourth start has been very profitable over the years. The White Sox organization is very familiar with the type of "stuff" he brings to the table. Texas is 8-26 when playing with a day off over the past three seasons, including 0-2 this year. The Rangers are 3-7 against right-handed starters. The White Sox have the much better bullpen so far this season. Take the home team!

4*Cleveland Indians +105 (Rodon/Plesac)

Fading pitchers coming off a no-hitter have been a solid wager especially in April. Take the home team!

3*New York Yankees -108 (Glasnow/Montgomery)

In his last start (also against the Rays), Montgomery permitted four runs on five hits and two walks over five-plus innings. Tyler Glasnow is coming off his best outing of his career with 14 strikeouts against Texas. The Yankees committed three errors yesterday and Tampa Bay is 0-2 against left-handed starters this season. Take the Yankees!

3*Cincinnati Reds -116  (Allen/Hoffman)

The Indians are coming off a four-game series against a division rival. The Reds return home after a 2-4 road trip and had a day off on Thursday. The Reds are 2-0 this season after losing two in a row. The Reds have a +19 run differential while the Indians are +11 so far this season. Light play on the home team.

3*St. Louis Cardinals -124 (Anderson/De Leon)

The Cardinals will face a left-handed starter for the second straight game and Anderson has struggled in day games over the past three seasons. Milwaukee scored 9 runs against the Red Birds yesterday so lets take the home team to bounce back on Sunday. 

4*Atlanta Braves -124  (Wheeler/Morton)

Zack Wheeler will face the Braves for the second time in less than a week. This time, the outing will take place at Truist Park. Last Saturday, Wheeler had two hits and two RBIs as he allowed just one hit and struck out 10 across seven innings in the Phillies' 4-0 victory at Citizens Bank Park. Charlie Morton pitched well in that game giving up two earned runs. It's very difficult for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. I also like fading MLB teams that scored 8 or more runs and than have to play on the road. Take the Braves! 

3*LA Angles +104  (Giolito/Bundy)

If Ohtani can stay healthy, I believe the Angles can win 87+ games this season. This guy can jack 30+ dingers and win 15+ as a starter. There are some wise guys betting him as a sleeper AL MVP candidate. Lucas Giolito has been great, but not in the month of April. In 2018, his ERA was 8.69 and in 2019 his ERA was 6.75 in this opening month. The Angels are 22-6 in the past 28 meetings in Los Angeles. There will be roughly 10,000 fans in attendance. Dylan Bundy looks to be the real deal after a fantastic spring training. His counting stats have been improving year by year. Lets take a shot with the home underdog!

5*New York Yankees -119 (Morton/Tanaka)

M. Tanaka allowed six earned runs to the Indians in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series after never previously allowing more than three earned runs in any of his first eight career postseason starts. He's been solid off a team loss and the Yankees managed just 5 hits yesterday. C. Morton hasn't thrown a pitch in nearly two weeks. I like the Yankees in this one!

10*Cleveland Indians -113 (Woodruff/Civale)

The Indians two thru four hitters went a combined 0-12 in last night's 7-1 loss to the Brewers. Milwaukee is 6-12 after a win this season. I like the Indians to bounce back in a big way.

4*New York Mets -125 (Arrieta/Porcello)

4*Milwaukee Brewers -131  (Houser/Kuhl)

Adrian Houser returns to the scene of his season debut, where he endured a rain delay of nearly two hours in the middle of an effective five-inning stint on July 27. The Brewers are 3-1 when he starts. Take the Brew crew!

4*Oakland A's -109 (Bassitt/Gallen)

4*Colorado Rockies -121 (Weaver/Senzatela)

3*Colorado Rockies -103  (Richards/Gray)

In his 10-year career, mostly with the Angels, Richards has never pitched at Coors Field. He was sharp in his first outing, using two dominant breaking pitches to hold Arizona scoreless over five. Those breaking balls won't be as sharp at altitude in Colorado. Take the Rockies!

3*Cleveland Indians +108 (Giolito/Plesac)

3*Minnesota Twins -103  (Berrios/Giolito)

Jose Berrios has opening day experience while pitching extremely well against the White Sox in his career. He's 11-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Last season, Berrios went 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA against the White Sox. Lucas Giolito will be making his first career opening day start after a fantastic season last year. Light play on the road team!

5*Houston Astros -135  (Greinke/Sanchez)

Zack Greinke hasn't been at his sharpest this postseason, but his last two starts were solid (3.48 ERA in 10 1/3 innings). He'll get to bat in the NL park in Game 3, and Greinke led all pitchers with three home runs and eight extra-base hits this year. Zack has pitched great in NL ballparks of late. He held the Nationals to 2 hits, 0 runs, in 7.1 innings earlier this season. Since 2016, Greinke has allowed only 1 earned run in 21.2 innings at Washington while surrendering just 8 hits. His "stuff" will frustrate this Nats lineup once again. Take the Astros in this must win game!

5*St. Louis Cardinals -110 (Flaherty/Foltynewicz)

It's extremely difficult for any team to defeat the same pitcher twice in 5 days. Especially if that pitcher has not proven to be the Ace of the staff. Foltynewicz submitted one of the best starts of his career in Game 2, putting his 2018 NLDS struggles behind him with seven scoreless innings. The righty retired the last 11 batters he faced. On the flip side, Jack Flaherty is holding batters to a .192 average this season. Jack has an ERA of 1.48 while holding batters to a league-best .189 average in all day games (any game that starts before 6 PM E) this season. The Braves are young and their time will come. Not this year. I like the Red Birds to advance!

4*Washington -125 (Wheeler/Sanchez)

3*NY Yankees -137 (Anderson/Sabathia)

3*Boston Red Sox -114   (Rodriguez/Paddack)

4*Texas Rangers -122 (Sandoval/Minor)

*Philadelphia Phillies -119 (Paddack/Velasquez)

3*Atlanta Braves -128 ( Wheeler/Freid)

5*NY Mets -105  (Corbin/Syndergaard)

This will be Patrick Corbin’s fifth start of the season against the Mets. Two of the first four have come at Citi Field, where Corbin has given up seven runs in 11 innings (5.73 ERA) in a pair of Nationals losses. Noah Syndergaard has been a different pitcher since the All-Star break, posting a 1.78 ERA in five starts and pitching at least seven innings in all of them. He has thrown his Slider a lot more with tremendous results. The Mets are ranked 8th in OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Look for the Mets to ride their walk-off win yesterday to another victory tonight.

4*NY Yankees -125 (Rodriguez/Paxton)

4*Arizona Diamondbacks -120  (Young/Yamamoto)

4*Chicago White Sox -115 (Gallen/Lopez)

4*Minnesota Twins -122 (Bassit/Odorizzi)

5*Minnesota Twins -135  (Matz/Pineda)

S. Matz has a 7.07 ERA on the road this season, 10.22 ERA over the past 30 days, and batters are hitting .281 against the southpaw this year. The Twins are ranked No. 2 in OPS against left-handed starters. Matz has never pitched at Target Field. July has been Matz's worst month going 3-11 with a 5.78 ERA over the past three seasons. Michael Pineda has a 3.13 ERA with 27 K's in 23 IP over the past 30 days. Pineda has always pitched better after the All-Star break with an ERA close to 1 run lower. The Twins have been really good after a team loss. Finally, the Mets are just 1-5 in the fourth game of a road trip this season.

4*Milwaukee Brewers -125  (Bumgarner/Davies)

4*Texas Rangers +150   (Chavez/Pineda)

Jessie Chavez is 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA in three starts and one relief appearance over his past four outings. He has a 0.74 WHIP in that stretch, with 22 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. Michael Pineda is coming off his best outing of the season. I like the Rangers to bounce back after last night's 15-6 shellacking. Nelson Cruz is OUT for this game and Eddie Rosario has been OUT for awhile. Those are two big bats missing from the Twins starting lineup. Take the Rangers!

3*Cincinnati Reds -131  (Chacin/Gray)

3*Miami Marlins +130  (Velasquez/Hernandez)

4*Minnesota Twins +106 (Morton/Odorizzi)

3*Philadelphia Phillies -125   (Matz/Eflin)

Zach Eflin has been the Phillies' best and most consistent starter this season. He has allowed four or more runs in just three of 14 starts this season. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last five starts. I like the Phillies to end its long losing streak which spans 8 days.

4*Pittsburgh Pirates -110  (Lauer/Musgrove)

3*Minnesota Twins -118  (Rodriguez/Gibson)

3*Minnesota Twins -131  (Porcello/Berrios)

I like the Twins with Berrios off a team loss. He's been one of the best over the past two seasons in this role. Rick Porcello takes a 3.83 ERA in 31 career starts against the Twins to Minnesota. Take the Twins!

4*Philadelphia Phillies -135  (Gray/Nola)

4*Minnesota Twins +103  (Berrios/Bauer)

Jose Berrios has been dynamite off a team loss in his career and the Indians have a weekend series against the NY Yankees on deck. Twins avoid the sweep!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Belmont Stakes (Saturday)

#8 Intrepid Heart (W+P+S)    ML: 10/1

This Colt might have the best pedigree in the race. He stumbled in his last start which adds value to this selection. Fresh horses tend to run well in the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher only enters horses he believes can win the Belmont. Play it across the board for 1 unit each.

3*Tampa Bay Rays +100  (Gibson/Chirinos)

4*Seattle Mariners -119  (Lynn/Milone)

4*Cleveland Indians -127 (Bassit/Bauer)

4*Seattle Mariners -102  (Gibson/Kikuchi)

The Twins came thru for us yesterday by opening a can of whoop ass on the Mariners. Today, we go the other way. Seattle will send it's most dependable starter to the bump trying to avoid a four-game sweep. The Twins have never seen Kikuchi so there will be an adjustment period. I think the Mariners bats will wake up in this one. Take the hungry host!

4*Minnesota Twins -125  (Berrios/LeBlanc)

5*Minnesota Twins -144  (Skaggs/Berrios)

The Angels continue their long road trip against Jose Berrios at home off a team loss. He's been solid in this role in his burgeoning career. The Twins will be facing a left-handed starter for the second straight game and they are ranked #2 in OPS (on base + slugging) against lefties. Jose Berrios is holding batters to a .198 average at home this season with 30 strikeouts in 27.1 IP. Tyler is Skaggs has talent but has not pitched great on the road this season. His ERA is 6.38 with a .311 batting average against. I like the Twins in this spot at a decent lay. This line will close around -160.

3*Philadelphia Phillies -126  (Eflin/Keller)

4*Minnesota -105 (Gibson/Thornton)

4*Minnesota Twins -130 (Berrios/Sanchez)

3*Texas Rangers -115 (Lyles/Sampson)

5*Seattle Mariners -120  (Lynn/Swanson)

Eric Swanson lost his first two big league starts but drew praise for getting ahead of hitters and staying aggressive. Two home runs by San Diego’s Franmil Reyes doomed him in his previous start, but Swanson also retired 12 of 13 batters before Reyes’ second blast. Eric was originally selected by the Rangers back in the 2014 draft, but never pitched for the club. He should have a little extra motivation in his third career start. Lance Lynn has an ERA of close to 8.00 in all day games over the past three seasons including 2019. I like Seattle to bounce back after losing by 14 runs yesterday and striking out 16 times. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -130 (Shane/Brad)

4*LA Dodgers -110  (Stripling/Lester)

The Dodgers will be facing a left-handed starter for the third straight game after not seeing one in the first 16 games. Jon Lester comes off the IL knowing his ERA is better at night (2.84) than in the day (4.00) over the past three seasons. The Dodgers have 6 regulars hitting over .300 against Lester. Take the Blue Crew to avoid the sweep.