5*New Orleans Saints +3

I wanted to see how teams (Saints) with worst defense in terms of points allowed (318) have performed after its BYE week. The numbers suggest these teams play much better with two weeks to prepare, after hearing how bad its defense has been. NFL teams that are ranked last in points allowed have gone 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS coming of a BYE after Week 10 of the season. Also, the Texans are just 5-12-1 ATS following a straight-up win and will now face a new defensive coordinator in his first game with two weeks to prepare. Houston doesn't really know what to expect from the Saints on defense. All of the previous Saints' games on tape with Ryan running the defense are useless to the Texans' coaching staff. I like the Saints to win this game outright!

10*Florida +3

The Gators are well-coached under Jim McElwain and will bring in the better defense. Florida has held nine foes to season low or second low yards this year. Florida defeated Ole Miss 38-10 as a 7-point home underdogs earlier this season. Florida still has a chance at a top four NCAAF playoff birth by winning this game and the SEC Title game next week. The Las Vegas College Football rankings has Florida ranked No. 9 and FSU No. 18. That equates to about 4.5 points. Florida was clearly looking ahead to this game in last week's OT win against FAU. Win or lose, FSU is almost guaranteed a spot in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31. I believe the wrong team is favored and will gladly take the motivated Gators at home in this spot. 

5*Duke -4

5*East Carolina -1

4*Chicago Bears +9

The Bears are by far the most improved team as far as coaching goes. John Fox has been excellent as an underdog off a loss. The Bears have played a lot of close games as six of their past seven have been decided by 3 points or less. Chicago outgained the Packers in their opening week home loss and one sportsbook manager told me this line should be closer to 7. NFL teams are just 3-7 ATS after playing the Vikings this season. Short week and a 100% chance of rain points to a Bears cover.

5*San Diego Chargers +3

The Chargers have two weeks to prepare for this double-revenge game and Philip Rivers is looking to snap his second-longest losing streak in his career. The Chargers are taking this game very seriously and despite only having two wins, they are outgaining foes by 50 yards per game. The Chiefs will be playing their second straight road game and these teams are big time fade material as favorites after Week 10. Kansas City played a physical game last Sunday and teams usually suffer a huge let down after defeating the Broncos in Denver. Take the home dog!

5*Colts +6

The Falcons' defense is very similar to what Matt Hasselbeck saw against the Jaguars. He went 30-of-47 for 282 yards and one score earlier this season. I think the BYE week and playing indoors will benefit the 40-year old QB. The Colts offensive line, defensive line, and overall team defense are ranked higher than the Falcons according to Football Outsiders. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS as a favorite in the last three seasons. This should be a very close game so lets take the points.

4*Washington +8.5

5*Vanderbilt +7

This will just be Texas A&M's third road game of the season and they were outgained by Ole Miss and Arkansas in both tilts. The Commodores have played their last four SEC foes to a combined score of 48-48. Vanderbilt needs one or possibly two more wins to become bowl-eligible. They have played really well in this spot (home underdogs of 7 or more points at night in conference play) going 12-2 SU & 12-2 ATS. Kyle Shurmur is getting better with each game and the 6-4, 225-pound freshman QB wants to give the fans a win in their last home game of the season. Lets take the motivated home underdog with the better stop unit in this spot.

4*Missouri +8.5

4*Ole Miss -4

4*Penn State +4

5*NY Giants +7.5

5*Washington +1.5

10*Tennessee Titans +6

The Carolina Panthers will be playing its first road game in just about 1 month after defeating the Packers, Colts, Eagles, and the Seahawks in successive weeks. Very tough especially later in the season. The Steelers were in this very same role last year and lost to the Jets, 20-13 as 4-point road chalk. The Titans have a sneaky good defense, allowing 21 fewer yards per game than the Panthers and their special teams is ranked five spots (23rd) higher than Carolina (28th). Mike Mularkey will bring something new on offense in his second game as interim head coach so the Panthers don't really know what to expect. Dorial Green Beckham is a rising star and I like his matchup against the Panthers' secondary. Jonathon Stewart is questionable and even if Stewart does play he won't be at 100%. Carolina has some injury issues on the offensive line as well. Finally, the Titans have lost their last four home games and are pumped-up for this game. Take the home dog in this classic overlay. 

5*South Florida +3

South Florida is one win away from becoming bowl-eligible. The Bulls have performed great in home night games against winning teams. South Florida has been very sound with the football this year, with just one turnover in 7 of 9 games. That's key against Temple who thrive on takeaways. The Bulls have already won three games as underdogs and I see more of the same in this one at home.

5*Rutgers +8.5

Nebraska's come-from-behind score should not of counted in last week's win against MSU. Rutgers will welcome back WR Leonte Carroo, who has missed the last two games with an injury. The Scarlet Knights will face a pass defense that has allowed 8 TD passes and seven 20-yard completions the last two weeks. That's a welcome sight for an offense which has faced three pretty good defenses the last three weeks (Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State). The Huskers have lost both Big Ten games this season they have played as a road favorite. This should be a closer game than most people think. Nebraska is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The host is 5-1 in their last six games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the home underdog in this overlay!

4*Mississippi State +8

4*Tampa Bay +3

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -4

The Steelers held the Bengals to a season-low 296 yards in last week's home loss. I like the Steelers here at home with the Raiders flying cross country to play an early 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM Body Clock) game. DeAngelo Williams is a capable replacement at running back and I expect the Steelers to roll in this one. Look for the Steelers to push the pace on offense early and often.

4*Washington +14.5

4*Indiana +7

4*Pittsburgh +9

10*Duke +8

North Carolina kept Duke from a second straight ACC championship game with a 45-20 victory last November. It's customary for the winning team in the rivalry to spray-paint the Victory Bell in its specific shade of blue when the traveling trophy changes hands, but the celebration irked the Blue Devils because the carpet and inside and outside walls of the visitors' locker room at Wallace Wade Stadium were damaged by paint. Duke will be focused after losing in dramatic fashion at home last week to the Hurricanes. Replays showed the touchdown should not have counted. Duke owns the better overall defense by over 60 yards per game while North Carolina's run defense is allowing 180 yards per game. The Blue Devils average 205 rushing yards per game and should be able to score enough points to keep this one very close. Duke is 11-2 ATS on the road over the last three seasons and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. North Carolina has three big revenge games on deck starting next week. Take the road dog in this overlay.

5*Dallas Cowboys +6

The Cowboys offense is much better with Cassel under Center and I believe they match-up well with the Seahawks. Seattle has the worst offensive line in the league, allowing 31 sacks already while the Cowboys have allowed just 12. Dallas defeated the Seahawks in Seattle as 10-point underdogs last season. Dallas outgained the Giants 460-289 in last week's loss. This line is out of whack so take the home team in this overlay. 

4*Oakland Raiders +3

5*Chicago Bears +1

The Bears have a sneaky good defense holding four opponents to season-low yards this season. The Bears own the better offensive line by a wide margin. Minnesota has allowed 19 sacks while the Bears have allowed just 12 sacks this season. John Fox has been highly successful, winning his last seven games immediately after the BYE dating back to when he coached the Carolina Panthers. Fox is 10-3 overall after byes, with his last loss coming in 2007. Chicago has won and covered six out of the last seven meetings at Solider Field. More of the same. 

5*Iowa State +6

When Iowa State is not facing a top passing offense their defense is solid. The Longhorns' passing offense is ranked No. 122 in the nation and Texas will be playing just its third true road game of the season. Texas is 0-2 SU on the road and will be playing a pissed off team that has lost three straight games. Iowa State is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in night games after three straight losses. Take the home dog! 

5*Georgia +3

The Bulldogs enter with the better offense, defense, and special teams. Florida was holding open tryouts for a place kicker during their BYE week. In fact, both teams have a week of rest and the Bulldogs have some revenge on their minds. They allowed the Gators to rush for over 400 yards in last year's 18-point loss as 11.5-point home chalk. The Bulldogs are extremely focused on this game as a victory would put them in the drivers seat to win the SEC East. Georgia has been waiting for this game all season. Take the road dog and don't be shocked if they win outright.

5*Tennessee +6

I think the Titans' offense will be better with Zack Mettenberger. Lets fade the public and take home underdog in this one. I would not be surprised if the Titans won straight-up, so a little taste on the money line is recommended. NFL Home underdogs coming off a blowout (27 points or more) loss at home are cashing close to 80% if they play at home in their very next game. Tennessee is allowing 313 yards per game, while the Falcons are allowing 369.5 yards per game. I love NFL home underdogs with the better defense. 

4*Indianapolis Colts -4

4*Detroit Lions +2

5*Western Kentucky +17

10*Illinois +6.5

Illinois has two weeks to prepare for this contest and I am hearing extremely pumped-up for this game. Wisconsin will be playing their 8th straight game without more than 1 week of rest. Should be a low-scoring contest as Illinois is allowing 4.7 yards per play while Wisconsin is allowing 4.5. New head coach Bill Cubit will show something new coming off their BYE week. Wisconsin doesn't know what to expect. Illinois has covered three of four meetings in Champaign and are 9-2 SU in their last 11 home games. I have Wisconsin as 4-point favorites. We are getting tremendous value on the rested home underdog with revenge from a 10-point loss last season.

5*Duke +3

5*Arizona Cardinals -3 (-125)

It's normally tough for NFL teams to play back-to-back road games on the East Coast. However, Arizona did something a little different. The Cardinals arrived at The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia on Sunday night after defeating the Lions, a place they will stay through Friday before heading to Pittsburgh for this matchup. The Steelers were outgained in last week's victory. Michael Vick is 5-11 SU against winning teams after a SU win. Short week against an explosive offense. Take the road team!

5*Cleveland Browns +5

This will be Peyton's first cold weather and windy game of the season. I think the Browns will be fired up at home and should be able to score enough points to keep this one close. The Broncos played a physical game against a bitter rival last week. The Broncos are 3-11 ATS as road chalk after facing the Raiders with no rest. Denver's defense is a little "nicked" up this week. Take the underdog in the Dawg pound.

4*Florida +9.5

5*Buffalo U +7.5

The Bulls held high-powered Bowling Green to a season low yards two weeks ago. Buffalo will be playing with a week of rest along with revenge from last year's 6-point loss. These two teams have played very close games the last three years with no victory being decided by more than 7 points. Buffalo U has a solid running game and should be able to keep this one close.

4*Memphis +10.5

4*Ohio U -3.5

5*Oakland Raiders +6

The Raiders are coming home with a chip on its shoulder and should be pumped up for this rivalry matchup. Denver played a physical game last week against the Vikings last Sunday. Check out this nugget. NFL teams are 0-3 ATS after playing the Vikings this season. The Browns easily covered 7.5 points against the Chargers this past Sunday. Jack Del Rio facing former team. He served as the defensive coordinator for three years before taking the Oakland gig. Oakland enters this game with the higher-rated QB. Carr has a quarterback rating of 97.7, while Manning checks in at 80.7. Oakland has lost seven straight in this series and the line is less than a TD. Seems like a trap. I like the home team to keep it close.

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

4*Cleveland Browns +7

3*Rutgers +13.5

4*Northwestern +7.5

4*San Francisco 49ers +9.5

4*Cleveland Browns +7.5

5*New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have 10 days to prepare for this game. The Bills have to travel back home after playing the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. The Bills are cashing 33% after defeating the Miami Dolphins. Lets fade Tyrod Taylor is his first career game as the betting favorite. This line is too high so take the points in this overlay.

4*UNLV +7

4*Buffalo U +8.5

5*Massachusetts -3

FIU will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks. The Minutemen are led by QB Blake Frohnapfel who be playing in the NFL in the near future. The Panthers enter this game with just four healthy safeties going against a very good passing team. The home team should have no trouble in this spot. 

5*St. Louis Rams +1.5

5*Minnesota Vikings -1 (-125)

10*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

The Jets are coming off an emotional Monday Night victory at Indianapolis in which they accumulated 5 turnovers. With that said, they only scored 20 points. Eric Decker played a big part in the win and he is OUT for this game. The Eagles are 0-2 and have looked awful on both sides of the ball. Nobody is giving them a chance to win this game. In the NFL, no team is as bad or as good as they looked the week before. The Eagles are in desperate mode facing the Jets off a short week. Talent wise, the Eagles and Jets are pretty equal. Take the road dog!

4*Arizona U +3.5

5*Washington U +4.5

California remains undefeated despite getting outgained by 105 yards in last week's win at Texas. The Golden Bears will now play its second consecutive road game against a team that has defeated them six straight times. California is 0-3 SU in their last three games playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Huskies offense is improving and they have the better defense. Take the home dog in this one.

4*East Carolina +8.5

4*Northern Illinois +5

4*Chicago Bears +2.5

The Cardinals are tough at home, but will have to work a little harder playing on natural grass. Arizona is just 8-9 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Arizona has a division game next Week against the 49ers. Possible look ahead. NFL home underdogs off a loss, playing their second straight home game with no rest do very well. Take the home dog in this mild upset.

4*Washington Redskins +3.5

Washington was doomed by their special teams in last week's opening week home loss. The front seven played extremely well. The Rams are coming off their upset win at home against Seattle. Teams have performed poor on the road after facing the Seahawks and their physical style.

4*Houston Texans +3

I like when teams change quarterbacks and Ryan Mallett has a very strong arm. I believe the Texans defense can exploit some weaknesses from the Panthers' offensive line. Carolina will be without stud linebacker Luke Kuechly and that should bolster the Texans' run game.

4*Texas State -3

4*Utah State +6.5

4*DUKE -3.5

5*NY Giants +6

The Giants should have extra motivation from getting swept in two straight seasons by Dallas. Division underdogs normally do very well in Week one. The Cowboys starters played very little in the preseason. Dallas gets a lot of attention for having an excellent offensive line and they do. You might be surprised to see that Dallas is much better at run-blocking than pass-protection. The Cowboys were ranked 16th in sacks allowed last season and the starting offensive line hardly played together in the preseason. The Underdog in Dallas Cowboy games are cashing nearly 70% over the last four seasons combined. I don't see the Cowboys defense being able to stop the Giants from scoring enough to cover this game. Should be a tight one. Take the Giants in this overlay.

5*Oakland Raiders +3.5

Oakland's first team offense and defense played inspired ball this preseason. The Bengals have to travel a long way and temps are expected to be above normal. The Bengals have struggled in warmer climates early in the season. I think the Raiders are on the right track. I would expect the Raiders to give the city of Oakland a very competitive team this season. It very well could be their last season in Oakland.

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

I think the Jaguars are improving on both sides of the ball. They have a lot of talent you've never heard of. Carolina is very thin at WR and they have one of the worst offensive lines. Jacksonville's first team offensive line looked solid in the preseason. Gus Bradley is building something special in Jacksonville. They should be undervalued early in the season. Look for the Jaguars to win their home opener for the 4th consecutive season.

4*Temple +7

10*Michigan State -3

The Spartans have been waiting for this rematch ever since blowing a halftime lead at Eugene last season. They should benefit from seeing this team without former Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. Mariota single handily won the game for Oregon last season. He's not there anymore and the Ducks' defense is significantly weaker. They allowed 42 points against Eastern Washington last Week. This is a statement game for the home team. Lay the small number.  

5*Temple +7

The Owls are a team on a mission this season after getting "snubbed" out of Bowl Action last season. Temple returns 19 starters, including 11 from a defense that ranked in the Top 25 nationally in numerous categories. Penn State should have a decent season, but they might be looking ahead to their 5-game home stand on deck. Head coach James Franklin is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road openers. The Owls played Penn State close last season until a bad "pick six" in the fourth quarter. I think they will learn from that. Temple is 16-4 ATS as home dogs when seeking revenge. This line should be closer to 5. 

5*Hawaii +7.5

Max Wittek is a strong kid who can make all the throws. The Junior transfer from USC is poised for a big year against some of the lesser teams. Heach coach Norm Chow compares him to Carson Palmer. Hawaii has an improving offense and defense. Tough travel spot in Week one for Colorado. Take the home dog in this one!

4*New England -103

Nobody is really talking about the health of the Seahawks' secondary. Two key starters will playing at less than 100%. The Seahawks also played one of the easiest schedules in all of football this season. With two weeks to prepare, I expect Belichick and company to install a solid game-plan that will exploit the middle of the field with quick-short type passes. Look for numerous running plays from the spread formation with Vereen and Blount. Seattle's defense struggled against Top-notch Quarterbacks with a great Tight-End. They lost to Dallas, San Diego, and should have lost to Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. Antonio Gates gashed Seattle for 3 touchdowns in the Chargers Week two victory. The Patriots' defense matches up pretty well against Seattle as they can stack the box with eight defenders. No team can stop M. Lynch, but the Pats should be able to contain him enough. New England should have extra motivation after losing their last two Super Bowl affairs.  

5*Colts +7

The Colts come into this matchup with the better offense and defense. New England crushed the Colts earlier this season due to a breakout game by Jonas Grey. I don't see that happening again as the Colts run defense is much improved. The Colts have outgained its foe in three straight games while the Pats have been outgained during that same time frame. Indianapolis is allowing just 222 passing yards per game which is what the Pats like to do. The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS this season. New England played a very physical game last week against Baltimore. Look for a close game either way!

5*Dallas Cowboys +6

I am hearing that Aaron Rodgers injury is more serious than people think and his mobility could be limited. That's a big part of the Packers' offense. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball much better than what they showed against Detroit. Look for a close game decided by 4 points or less.

5*Baltimore Ravens +7

Baltimore won't be intimidated playing at Foxboro. I think the Ravens match-up very well against this NE team. I like underdogs with the better defense in the NFL, especially this time of year. Take the road dog!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

5*Iowa +3.5

5*FSU +10

5*Georgia Tech +7

5*Boise State +3.5

5*Louisville +7

5*Oklahoma U -3

5*Penn State +3

10*Rice -2

Rice is motivated two-fold. They got demolished in their last game of the regular season and lost by 37 points in last year's Liberty Bowl. They have done a great job bouncing back after poor efforts this season. Rice has the better defense by far and they are 15-3 SU when playing against a team with a losing record of late. Rice head coach Bailiff has played three games in Hawaii and he has brought home the cash all three times. He's also excellent with extra time to prepare going 10-4 ATS. Rice extremely motivated while Fresno State could care less. Note Fresno State 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five Bowl games.

4*Oakland Raiders +7

4*NY Jets +11

10*Minnesota Vikings +7

The Vikings held the Lions to a season-low 233 yards in last week's two-point loss. Teddy Bridgewater is a Miami native and the team is extremely motivated to finish at .500 this season. Miami has lost the stats in four straight games and they rank in the bottom third in red-zone scoring. The Dolphins don't have any tall red-zone targets and it shows. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in December over the last three seasons and will bring in the better defense. Miami is 2-5 ATS after playing New England with no rest of late. Take the road dog!

4*Washington +8

4*San Francisco 49ers +10

4*Buffalo Bills +5.5

4*Oakland Raiders +10.5

10*Washington +3

The Rams BYE was back in week four which means they have played nine straight games without rest. This will be the very first cold weather game for the Rams all season and they have not played well when temps are in the 40's. They also have a big revenge game against Arizona this coming Thursday. The Redskins have a +25 net yard differential while the Rams are minus -41. Colt McCoy has a 113.5 QB rating and should be pumped up to give the home fans a win. Take the home team in this upset maker! 

5*Louisiana Tech +11

Marshall is coming off a disappointing loss last week and is no longer undefeated. They have a minus -52 yard differential in the second half of the season. La Tech plays a lot of close games and they are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games. College Football home favorites who lost SU in overtime are just 2-13 ATS in their next game. Take the Bulldogs!

4*Oakland Raiders +7

4*Tennessee Titans +7.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +3

5*NC State +7.5

The Wolfpack have two weeks to prepare and have revenge on their minds after losing two straight to North Carolina. The host is coming off an emotional win at Duke and will now play its last game of the season. North Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in regular season finales. NC State has the better defense by almost 100 yards. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

5*Minnesota Vikings +10

This game will not look anything like the 42-10 Green Bay shellacking in early October. The Vikings committed three turnovers, including two interceptions by C. Ponder and were outgained by just 21 yards. Double Digit division home underdogs with the better defense do very well this time of year. Teddy Bridgewater should benefit from playing in cold weather last week. Look for more quick-type passes up the middle where the Packers have struggled to defend. There is a 70% chance of rain with a high around 42.

5*Virginia +6

Miami is coming off a disappointing loss against FSU and will now play at Virginia, who has some revenge on their minds. The Hurricanes defeated Virginia last season by 19 points, despite getting outgained by a 483-304 margin. Miami is 2-6 SU & ATS in their last eight road games. I think the Cavilers will come up with a huge effort in their last home game of the season. Miami is 0-7 ATS as chalk after losing to the Seminoles. The host needs to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. Take the home dog!