5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

3*Los Angeles Rams +3

I want to start off by saying my Super Bowl winner before the season started was the LA Rams over the Steelers. I will stick with it. You certainly won't get rich betting against Brady/Belichick for almost two decades. This is a light play for sure. With that said, I think the Rams have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. Playing on field turf should benefit the speedy Rams against the relatively slow Pats. Wade Philips faced Tom Brady and company numerous times when he was in Denver. They held Brady below his season average in almost every important QB stat. The Rams' defense is built very similar to those great Broncos' stop units although the Rams are a notch below. If Sean McVay was not the Rams head coach I would have liked the Pats when the line first came out. This guy is special and I don't think the Pats have a huge coaching edge. Sean McVay did coach against Belichick when he was in Washington. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins lost 27-10 with seven of those 10 points coming on a late garbage TD. Sean McVay said that loss kept him up all night and that the Patriots "took his team to the woodshed". The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 Super Bowls. Check this out. Since 2001, the team ranked higher (better) in Overall Team Efficiency at Football Outsiders has gone 15-3 in the BIG GAME, including three straight winners. That's a large sample size. The Rams are ranked #2 while the Patriots are ranked #7 this season. You know how much I love Football Outsiders when it comes to crunching numbers. They do a tremendous job. It's a great site. Take the Rams plus the points!

NFL BIG GAME props

Successful 2-point conversion: YES +225

Defense or ST TD: NO -230

Total Rushing yards Todd Gurley: OVER 65 (-120)

Total Receiving yards Julian Edelman  OVER 80 (-120)

10*New England Patriots -4

No team in the NFL has traveled more miles than the LA Chargers this season. This will be LAC's third straight road game and second straight Eastern time zone starting in the early slot. That game last week was very physical. The Patriots have the 3rd-ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders, including #1 in sacks allowed (21). I trust the coach/QB duo to game plan for the Chargers tired legs and pass rush. Look for the Patriots to spread the Chargers out, and utilize James White & Sony Michel in the passing game. New England should take advantage with Gronk as the Chargers are ranked #20 in defending the TE. The Patriots are ranked 15 spots higher in penalties per game. New England is ranked 4th while the Chargers are ranked 19th. Tired teams tend to commit more penalties too. I told you in my write-up last week that special teams means more in the playoffs and it certainly was a factor in the Eagles win. The Chargers are ranked 25th in Special Teams (worst among remaining teams) while the Patriots are ranked 16th. New England has won 7 straight games coming off a BYE in the playoffs by an average of 17 points per game. The Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season outscoring foes by 16 points per game and +111 yard differential. Also, this game will be in the mid 20s. That's 30 degrees colder than what the Chargers played in at Baltimore. Finally, we are getting the better head coach to say the least. The public is all over the Chargers. Not me. Take the Pats!

5*Dallas Cowboys +7.5

I love playing on NFL underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense in the postseason. The Dallas stop unit is ranked 9th while the Rams are ranked 19th at Football Outsiders. A big factor is the crowd. A 50/50 split seems more than likely. The Rams haven't played a meaningful game in almost a month. Both teams like to run a lot. The Cowboys run defense is ranked 3rd while the Rams run defense is ranked 21st at Football outsiders. Seems like a FG game either way to me. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles are built a lot like the Bears with a huge advantage in playoff experience. Big factor. Chicago's offensive line is ranked 30th at Football Outsiders, despite their gaudy stats. Very few NFL teams win playoff games with that mark. The QB's are comparable (Trubisky QBR= 72.8, Foles QBR= 67.4) this season. I believe special teams means more in the playoffs and the Eagles are ranked 11 spots higher. The Bears are ranked 26th which is the worst mark of all the playoff teams. The Chargers are ranked 25th so it's real close. The Bears have won & covered four straight games and they have a +12 turnover differential. Great fade bate. I love playing on NFL underdogs in the Wild Card round if they had to win their final game to make the playoffs. This has been gold over the years. Take the Eagles!

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5

4*Buffalo Bills -3.5

The Dolphins are now 0-2 after that dramatic last-play comeback at home against the Patriots. Miami has been outgained in nine straight games. Red flag. I can't ignore the Bills 3rd-ranked defense at Football Outsiders compared to the Dolphins 24th-ranked stop unit. Also, this is a big revenge game for the host. Miami defeated the Bills earlier this month 21-17, despite getting outgained 415-175. You can be sure Buffalo has been waiting for this rematch. Miami will be moving on from Ryan Tannehill next season according to numerous reports. The Bills are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo over the past 13 years. More of the same with temps expected to be in the upper 20s.

5*Nevada +2

The Wolf Pack should be pumped-up to play in its first Bowl game in three years. They should enjoy a significant home-field advantage too. Arkansas State is allowing 7.6 yards per play against other Bowl teams. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. The Red Wolves went 0-4 SUATS and were outgained in three of the four games. Nevada is allowing 6.0 yards per play against other Bowlers. Respectable. The Wolf Pack went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. fellow Bowlers. Nevada is 8-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the past three seasons. Take the points!

10*Syracuse +1.5

West Virginia came up just short of playing in the Big 12 Title game and will now play without QB Will Grier and their best offensive lineman. Jack Allison will start and he's only attempted 10 passes this season. Syracuse hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2013, and will be looking to reach 10+ wins since 2001. Hugh motivational edge favors Syracuse. Western Virginia is 7-27 SU in Bowl games since 1987, including 0-5 ATS L5 under Dana Holgorsen. Take the Orange to win easily!  

5*Baylor Bears +4.5

The Commodores played only a slightly tougher schedule than the Bears. Baylor won 1 game last season and now they are playing in the Texas Bowl. The Bears matchup with the Commodores at every level and should enjoy a home field advantage with Waco, Tx about 185 miles away. Vandy went 2-6 SU against other Bowl teams. Vandy has covered 5 straight games to end the regular season. That's a sweet fade in this bowl game. I'm taking the points with the better offense and defense!

5*Duke +4.5

The Blue Devils are coming off an ugly 59-7 loss against Wake Forest in the last game of the regular season. That's the worst loss in David Cutcliffe's 17-year head coaching career. The players love the guy and the entire team should be pumped up. Ed Foley will coach this game for Temple. He coached Temple two years ago in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty. Temple lost outright to Wake Forest as 11-point chalk. Temple has struggled against dual-threat QB's this season and QB Daniel Jones should thrive in this spot. Finally, Cutcliffe is 9-2 ATS in Bowl Games. Take the dog!

5*Seattle Seahawks +2.5

This line suggests that the Chiefs would be 8.5-point chalk if this game was in Kansas City. Seems high to me. The Seahawks should be able to run against the Chiefs' last-ranked run defense at Football Outsiders. This will shorten the game and keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field. The Chiefs have a passer rating against of 104.7 in road games. Seattle is ranked 19th in team defense at football outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 27th. NFL winning home underdogs with the better defense are cashing close to 70% in December of late. Also, Seattle is 11-1-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2011. Take the Seahawks!

5*Philadelphia Eagles -124 (money line)

The Eagles are focused with Nick Foles under Center. This team is playing with passion and should be pumped-up in their last home game of the season. The Texans have been outgained in three straight games and have not committed a turnover in five straight games. Classic fade bate. This will also be the Texans second straight road game. They are 0-2 SU this season in that role. Houston has won 10 of 11 games with looks impressive. But, the combined record of the opponents Houston defeated is only 53-68. Finally, the Texans are 2-9 ATS in December games of late. Take the hungry host!

5*Troy +2.5

I think Buffalo U will be flat after blowing a 29-10 lead in the MAC championship game. Lance Leipold will be coaching in his very first bowl game. Advantage Troy. The Trojans should have a huge crowd edge. Advantage Troy. Troy went 3-2 SU against other bowl teams. Don't forget MAC bowlers are 1-10 SU of late. The Trojans are looking for 10+ wins for 3 straight years. Take the dog! 

5*Florida International +6.5

FIU QB James Morgan is a Bowling Green transfer. He threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns vs. the Rockets last year. FIU head coach Butch Davis is 6-2 ATS in bowl games. The Golden Panthers should be well represented in the stands as the team is only 180 miles away from home. Toledo, OH is close to 1,200 miles away. Toledo scored 107 points combined in their past two games and now must travel to play a bowl game. Tough. FIU is 6-1 ATS off a loss against a Conference Rival in their past seven tries. Take the dog!

5*UAB Blazers -1.5

The Blazers played their first Bowl game since 2004 last season. It showed, as they got annihilated 41-6 by Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. They should be super focused in this one. I believe UAB owns the better offense and defense. I have them rated 3.5 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. We have tremendous value at this current number. Northern Illinois is 6-18 ATS when playing on a neutral field, including 3-8 ATS in Bowl games since 1993. The Huskies average just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. UAB wins their first Bowl game in school history. Lay it!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

I have watched every Cowboys game since 1982. I can tell you when they play at 1:00 PM E it hasn't been pretty. Why? They rarely ever play in this time slot. The Cowboys are coming off a high-emotional National TV game. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 455 yards in that OT thriller. Dallas ran 93 plays (3rd most this year) and I would expect the offense to be lethargic in this game, especially with a banged up offensive line. The Colts have allowed just 16 sacks which ranks 4th. Dallas has allowed 48 sacks which ranks 30th. That's a huge advantage for the host. We get the much better offensive line at home laying under 3. Love it. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 69.3 while Dak Prescott has a QBR of 53.8. The league average is around 60. Indy has a sneaky good defense. The Colts are ranked 11th at Football Outsiders. Dallas is ranked 7th. The Colts offense is ranked 13th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 25th. They have been better with Amari Cooper though. The Colts are ranked 11th in overall team efficiency while the Cowboys are ranked 17th. The Colts are second-best team at converting 3rd downs this season. Dallas is ranked 26th in 3rd down defense. Lay it!

5*Buffalo Bills -2

The Bills are 0-2 SU the past two weeks despite outgaining both opponents by +360 combined. Josh Allen is a tough matchup for teams that haven't seen him thanks to dynamic running ability. The Bills are ranked #3 in team defense at Football Outsiders while Detroit is ranked #29. Detroit won at Arizona 17-3 despite getting outgained 279-218. The Lions are 0-5 after a win by 14 or more points of late. Second straight road for the Lions and they are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS in that role this year. Josh Allen has a QBR of 57.1 while Matt Stafford check in at 50.7 QBR. I like fading dome teams playing in cold weather the final month of the season.

4*Middle Tenn State +7

App State had a tremendous season but will have an interim head coach calling the shots. This will the final game for the father/son head coach QB duo. Brent Stockstill is a 4-year senior and his skill set plays well in College. The Blue Raiders played a tough non-conference schedule playing 3 SEC teams. I think they will keep this one close.

5*Fresno State -4

I have the Bulldogs rated significantly higher (6 points on a neutral field) than the Sun Devils. Fresno State is allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense while Arizona State is allowing 5.7 per play.  Fresno State should be motivated in this game as they want to end the season with 12 wins. In 2012, the Bulldogs had 11 wins going into their bowl game and lost 43-10 to SMU. This game will be played on turf. The Bulldogs played 12 games on turf this season and went 10-2 SU. The Sun Devils played three games on turf and went 1-2 SU. The Sun Devils have numerous injuries and key players that will not participate in this game. Arizona State is just 5-10 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1993. Fresno State is 27-10 ATS in all games over the past three seasons. Lay it! 

10*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

The Texans have won nine consecutive games which started in a Week four road victory over these Colts, by just 3 points in OT at the buzzer. Indianapolis outgained Houston 478-466, while sacking Deshaun Watson 7 times. Andrew Luck threw for 437 yards and now the Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Marlon Mack did not play in that game and he enters this contest averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the same exact average as Lamar Miller. Last week, the Texans won despite getting outgained 428-384. Houston benefited from a +4 turnover margin. Speaking of turnovers, the Texans have played two straight games without committing any. That's not sustainable. The Colts were shutout in Jacksonville, despite outgaining the Jags 265-211. The Colts' offensive line is ranked 14 spots higher at Football Outsiders. NFL underdogs with same-season revenge that own the significantly better offensive line have been gold through the years. The Colts are 3-1 SU in revenge games this season. Andrew Luck has a QBR of 74.6 which ranks 5th in all of football. Deshaun Watson has a QBR of 59.8 which ranks 17th. We get 5.5 points with the much better offensive line and QB. Love it. This is a must win game for a team that scored 0 points last week. Love it. The Colts are ranked #2 in Third Down conversion percentage this season. Houston ranks 14th. The combined W/L records of the Texans' 9 consecutive wins is 49-58. I'm not that impressed. The Colts are 8-2 ITS (in the stats) L10, while the Texans are 6-4 ITS L10. Houston is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season of late. I love the Colts in this spot! Try a slice on the money line as well.  

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-124)

The Chargers have won seven of their past eight games, but only the Seahawks had a winning record. The Steelers are coming off that meltdown against the Broncos and I really like them to bounce back at home. Philip Rivers completed 25 straight passes (NFL record) and set an an NFL record for completion percentage in a game (28 for 29). That will not happen again and you can be sure the Steelers defense will be ready. Pittsburgh is ranked 1st in sacks. I always love fading teams/players off a record setting performance especially in football. The Chargers are ranked dead last in special teams play at Football Outsiders. The weather conditions should benefit the home team as well. Take the Steelers before this line climbs to four.

5*Buffalo Bills +5

The Bills offense plays better with Josh Allen under center. The advanced analytics prove it. His mobility is a big factor playing against teams for the first time. I can't say the same for the Dolphins. Brock Osweiler has a better QBR than Ryan Tannehill this season. The major handicap is the fact that the Bills have the 2nd-best team defense, while the Dolphins stop unit is ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Miami has not fared well against QB's that can run. In fact, the Dolphins have been outgained in nine of their past 10 games, including five in a row. Miami is ranked 29th in sacks. That should bode well for Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I don't think the warmer weather is a factor as the Bills had their BYE two weeks ago. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. Miami has not defeated the Bills by more than 3 points since November of 2014. The Dolphins are 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games in the month of December. The Bills are well-coached and love them as a division underdog in this low-scoring game.

5*Texas +8

Wow. This line seems super inflated to me. I would have made the game closer to 6. Texas has covered six straight against the Sooners. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Texas is ranked #45 while Oklahoma is ranked 94th at Football Outsiders. We get 8 points with the much better defense in a championship game. Solid. The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three years. Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 2-5 ATS on a neutral field of late. Take the Longhorns in this upset maker.

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+100)

This looks to be the trap line of the year. How can a Steelers team that is 7-2-1 be favored by just 3 points (opened at 3.5) in Denver who is 4-6. Here's why. The major handicap is the fact that the Steelers will be playing in back-to-back road games for the first time all year. The schedule makers were very kind to the Steelers so far this season. It gets tougher. Think about this. They fly to Jacksonville and play a high-emotional game winning at the very end in dramatic fashion. They hop on a plane and travel back home. Now, they make the long trip to Denver in altitude. The airport is about 1 hour away from the hotel/stadium. Long bus ride. Denver is ranked 4th in team defense while the Steelers are ranked 13th at Football Outsiders. The Steelers and Broncos are ranked 6th & 7th respectively in overall team efficiency. Denver has a sneaky good offensive line, ranking 5th while Pittsburgh is ranked 14th. Pittsburgh hasn't played against a pass rush like this Broncos' team possess all year. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in time-of-possession in all of football. At high-altitude combined with the Steelers playing on the road for the second straight week should bode well for the home team. Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games in Week 12. Denver is 14-7 SU & ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the Broncos!

5*BYU +12

The Utes are more focused on next week's Pac 12 Championship game in my opinion. BYU has outgained their opponent in five straight games while playing stingy defense. These two teams play tight games as 17 of the past 20 tilts have been decided by 7 points or less. The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings. More of the same. Temps are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain/snow. Winds 10-20 MPH. Take BYU plus the generous 12 points in this spot!

4*Ohio State +5

Now that the line has reached 5 points I have to take Ohio State. The public is all over Michigan at nearly a 70% clip. Take Ohio State in this upset maker!

4*Washington Redskins +7.5 (-115)

These two teams are no strangers to each other. Colt McCoy has spent many years in Texas and loves playing against the Cowboys. His two best games of his career came against Dallas. Colt McCoy has some skills that should keep this game close. Also, the Redskins defense is ranked 14th at Football Outsiders while the Cowboys are ranked 21st. Overall team efficiency finds the Redskins ranked 16th while Dallas is ranked 22nd. Washington is ranked 19 spots higher in special teams play. I don't think Colt McCoy is the answer long term but should be good enough in this game. Look for the Redskins improve to 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

5*Denver Broncos +7.5

The Broncos have two weeks to prepare for their division rival in a big time revenge spot. Denver got shutout (21-0) in Los Angeles on (12/22/17) despite outgaining LAC 251-242. LAC won the turnover battle 3-0 and that was the difference. The Chargers' defense has been on the field for 138 plays over the past two weeks. Tough. LAC has played a very soft schedule. In the Chargers' seven victories their opponents combined won/loss record is 18-37. Denver has played a very tough schedule. In the Broncos' six losses their foes combined won/loss record is 31-17. LAC is 10-33 ATS in their past 43 home games. LAC is 2-5 ATS after a SU & ATS win of late. I love the two headed monster with Royce Freeman (returning) and Phillip Lindsay at RB. This is a classic overlay so take the generous 7.5 points!

5*Minnesota U -1

Minnesota plays much better at home and they need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. With Wisconsin on deck, the Golden Gophers should be super focused in their final home game. Northwestern has already secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Not much to play for. Take the hungry host!

4*Seattle Seahawks -1

Seattle has dropped its past two games overall and at Centurylink Field. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after losing two or more consecutive games this season. The Packers have allowed 31, 29, 31, and 31 points in their past four road games. Jimmy Graham returns to Seattle knowing the Seahawks are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points against TE's this season. Advantage Seattle. The Packers are allowing opposing QB's throw for a 106.6 passer rating (25th) in road games. On the flip side, the Seahawks are holding opposing QB's to an 80.8 passer rating (7th) in home tilts. Seattle is ranked 19 spots higher in team defense at Football Outsiders and should enjoy a huge edge in special teams play. The home team is 8-2 SU on Thursday nights this season. The Seahawks are 7-3-1 ATS on Thursday's since 1993. Take the hungry host!

10*Seattle Seahawks +10

Largest underdog role for Russell Wilson in his career. This line is inflated and will be going down for sure. Seattle was one dropped pass from a potential tie at the end of regulation last week against the LA Chargers. They would have needed a 2-point conversion as well. The Seahawks already played the Rams tough this year losing by just two points. Seattle has a real defense, allowing 333.3 yards per game compare to 348.7 for the Rams. The Seahawks are ranked 5th in team defense while the Rams are ranked 16th at Football Outsiders. Seattle is holding opposing QB's to an 83 passer rating while the Rams are allowing opposing QB's to a 94.4 passer rating. Don't forget, the Rams have cluster injuries at Linebacker and have played back-to-back emotional games against Green Bay and New Orleans. Finally, I wonder just how much "gas" is left in the Rams' tank. They haven't had a BYE yet. Seattle had its BYE two weeks ago. I love double-digit division underdogs with same season revenge. Especially, with a Top 10 QB. Take the road dog plus the generous 10 points!

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6

5*California +5.5

USC has won 14 consecutive games vs the Golden Bears. California brings in the better offense and defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 net yards per play. USC has cluster injuries in the secondary and they have UCLA on deck. California is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games after scoring less than 20 points. USC is 18-37-1 ATS in their past 56 games after a SU win. And that's when USC had better teams! Take the road dog in this upset maker.

4*Tennessee U +6.5

10*Indiana U  PK

Indiana has been waiting for this matchup all season. This is a big revenge game for the Hoosiers who lost last year 42-39, despite outgaining Maryland 483-345. Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes while Kasim Hill is completing a smidgen over 50%. QB play is huge in November, and with two weeks to prepare I really like Indiana in this spot. There are a lot of distractions on the Maryland campus right now. Don't forget, they played a very physical game last week vs. MSU. The Spartans rushed the ball 46 times for 269 yards and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. Huge advantage for the host playing with fresh legs. The Terps are 1-8 SU in November over the past three seasons. Indiana is a respectable 9-9 SU at home when not laying more than 2 points over the past three years. Maryland is ranked 278th in yards per game while Indiana is ranked 83rd. Unload on the host!

5*Seattle Seahawks -1

This will be the Seahawks first home game since the unfortunate passing of their owner, Paul Allen. Expect a very emotional crowd. Seattle is 4-1 SU in their past five games with the only loss by just 2 points against the unbeaten LA Rams. The Seahawks love playing at home where they are 54-18 SU since 2010. Seattle is ranked #2 in team defense while LAC is ranked #18 at Football Outsiders. The Chargers offense had been rolling, but the BYE week tends to regress those returning teams back to the mean. The Chargers are ranked dead last in Special teams play at Football Outsiders. These teams are cashing 35% when playing in Seattle. Take the Seahawks!

5*Minnesota Vikings -4

The Vikings deserved a better fate last week after outgaining the Saints by 153 yards in the 10-point home loss. Now the Vikings are home again knowing they haven't defeated the Lions at home since 9/20/15. Minnesota is holding opposing QB's to a 91.2 (13th) passer rating while the Lions are allowing opposing QB's earn a 114.2 (31st) passer rating. The Vikings are ranked 13th in team defense while the Lions are ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. The Vikings offense is ranked 18th while the Lions are ranked 26th. Don't forget, Detroit just traded their leading receiver in Golden Tate. The rest of the guys can't be happy with that. Detroit played a very physical game last week. NFL teams are 1-4 ATS after playing the Seattle Seahawks this season.

5*LSU +14.5

Both teams will be playing with rest. It will hurt Alabama who had all the momentum of being undefeated. Happens a lot in College Football. This line shocks me even with the first half suspension. I think the Tigers will have even more motivation. Alabama has played two teams in the Top 50, while LSU has played five Top 30 (not 50) teams already. There has never been a Top 4 team getting this many points at home. Never. Keep in mind that LSU has just one home loss by more than 10 points in their past 67 tilts. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in weeks 10 thru 13 over the past three years. On the flip side, LSU is 6-2 ATS over that same time frame. The Tigers have been installed as an underdog 7 times in the past three years. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS when taking points. This is a classic overlay. Alabama wins but LSU gets the cash!

5*LA Tech +24

Battle of the Bulldogs. LA Tech covered against LSU as a big underdog and will now face a lesser team in my opinion. Flat spot for Miss State having played LSU & Texas A&M with Alabama on deck. LA Tech gave up two defensive TD's and that infamous 87- yard loss on a fumble in last year's matchup. The host is 2-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference foe of late, while LA Tech is 21-7 ATS as a road dog. I like the road Bulldogs plus the points.

4*Minnesota Vikings -105 (money line)

I feel like the Saints are overvalued in this spot after what happened between these two teams last postseason. The Vikings are at home (15-5 SU L20) where they have been dynamite, the Bills game notwithstanding. Minnesota is ranked 13th in passer rating against (91) while the Saints are ranked 31st (112.2) at Football Outsiders. Wow! Not surprisingly, the Vikings have the better overall defense too. The Vikings will be pumped-up for this prime time affair and should be favored by 2 points. Take the home team!

4*Green Bay Packers +9.5

This line seems high to me. Green Bay has two weeks to prepare and get healthy. Aaron Rogers has never been an underdog by this many points. You don't think he knows. He does. The Packers are ranked #9 in time of possession. They should be able to shorten the game and limit the Rams' possessions. Both teams have big games next week. The Packers play at New England. The Rams fly to New Orleans. Take the road dog!

5*Denver Broncos +10

The Broncos will have three extra days to get healthy and prepare for this same-season revenge game. In Week 4, Denver was leading 23-13 with 12:47 left in the 4th quarter, and than proceeded to lose the game by four points. The Chiefs offense looks unstoppable right now. But, 10 points to a team that has some favorable stats and has seen KC already. Love it. The Broncos are ranked 6th in passer rating against (85.4). That's a real stat when handicapping NFL games in 2018. Denver should be able to move the ball against this Chiefs' defense. The Broncos offensive line is ranked #7, while the Chiefs offensive line is ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Denver defense #8, Chiefs defense #26. Denver is ranked #10 in net yards per play (5.9) with KC #1 (6.9). Yes, the Chiefs stop unit looked great last week, but that's against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Cincinnati is a dumpster fire in prime time games with Dalton. This is a double-digit same-season division revenge game before Week 10. These teams are cashing 79% over the past decade. It doesn't happen often though so get down ASAP. I am pretty sure this line will close under 10.

4*Stanford -2.5

4*Missouri -7

4*Iowa +6

4*Washington Redskins -1.5

4*Baltimore Ravens -2.5

5*Carolina Panthers +5

These two teams played last season but the Panthers are running a new offense. The Panthers should have an edge schematically. Carolina is ranked higher than the Eagles in all the important analytical stats I look for. The Panthers have played well (5-1 ATS past six years) in the second game after their BYE week. Carolina is coming off a loss despite outgaining the Redskins. The Eagles are coming off a win despite getting outgained 401-379. Take the road dog!

5*Mississippi State +7

The total is 44.5 points which suggests the game will be lower scoring. I will take the underdog with the better offense and defense. The Bulldogs average 5.8 yards per play while LSU averages 5.4 yards per play. The host is coming off an emotional upset victory against previously undefeated Georgia and will play Alabama after its BYE week. LSU is 0-2 ATS after a conference victory this season. More of the same. Take the Bulldogs!

5*Cincinnati U +4

The Bearcats are really good at running the ball (255.5 per game) while the Owls are ranked 108th against the run. Cincinnati is averaging 6.4 yards per play against much better competition while Temple is averaging 5.5 yards per play. Cincinnati is allowing just 270 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Really good. The Owls played a very physical game last week against Navy. The Midshipmen rushed the ball 53 times. I see advantages in the red-zone, kicking, and special teams for road team as well. Lets not forget the road team has two weeks to prepare while playing with triple revenge. Take the Bearcats before the line starts to go down.

10*Denver Broncos +7

The Rams will be playing back-to-back road games with this one at altitude. Denver is returning home after a non-effort against the Jets and should be fired up after losing three straight. If any team is familiar with the Rams' defense and how to attack them it should be Denver, as Wade Phillips spent many years running the Broncos' defense. The Rams haven't played in Denver since 2010. Light snow and temps around 30 degrees in the forecast. Rams not accustomed to those conditions. I'm all over the Broncos in this spot.

5*Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts have 10 days to prepare for the Jets who are coming off a blowout victory against the Broncos. The Colts have a real pass rush (5th in Sacks) going up against a Jets team that is ranked 20th in pass protection. Andrew Luck has been solid off a blowout loss as an underdog in his career. Take the Colts in this upset maker!

5*Coastal Carolina -4

This will be UL Monroe's third straight road game and fifth road game in 6 weeks. Tough. Coastal Carolina has two weeks to prepare for this big revenger and welcomes pro-style QB Kilton Anderson back from his sprained ankle. Last year, UL Monroe defeated CC 51-43 despite getting outgained 441-344. Take the hungry host in a blowout!

5*Oregon +3.5

The Ducks will be pumped up with two weeks off to get over their meltdown against Stanford. I love the Oregon QB and I'm just not sold on this Washington team right now. Take the points!

5*Duke +3

This one is simple for me. Two weeks to prepare for the option and the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS against option teams under their current head coach.

5*Oakland Raiders +6

This line feels inflated to me, especially considering the Raiders' defense is comparable to LAC on a net yards per play basis (6.9 to 6.5). Actually, the Raiders' defense has a better QB rating against figure than the home team. Oakland could be the host as the stadium will have its share of of Raider fans. Oakland has been waiting for this matchup as the Chargers swept the season series last year. Both teams are not getting to the QB much as the Chargers have 8 sacks while Oakland has 5. The Chargers are ranked #31 in special teams while the Raiders are ranked #19 at Football Outsiders. Oakland is being undervalued so far this season. The Chargers are nicked up on the offensive line. Take the points with Oakland and its 2nd-ranked offense at 442 yards per game. I wouldn't be shocked if this line closes at less than five.

5*Buffalo Bills +3.5

In the NFL, teams are not as bad or good as they look the week before. This has to be a trap line where the oddsmakers are begging you to play the chalk. The Bills return home after getting shutout while the Titans just defeated the defending Super Bowl champions in dramatic upset fashion. These teams are just 13-41 SU in the very next game. The Bills defense is sneaky good allowing 5.3 net yards per play, while the Titans are allowing 5.7 net yards per play. Tennessee has been outgained in eight of their past nine games dating back to last season. When the Titans defeated Jacksonville they were just +1 yard better in the stats. They have played back-to-back physical games and this has upset written all over it. Take the Bills!

5*Mississippi State +4

The Bulldogs are coming off two listless games and the line is only 4 points. Trap. The public is backing the Tigers by a tune of 79%. Taking the points with the better offense and defense. The home crowd should be fired up in this upset maker. 

5*NC State -4.5

NC State has outgained their opponent in 9 straight games dating back to last season. Boston College is leaking oil having been outgained in their past two tilts. The Wolfpack has a lot of team speed something BC is lacking right now The Eagles come into this game "nicked" up on offense. The backups will be tested for sure. I'll take the host by at least a touchdown.

4*New York Giants +3.5

4*Arizona Cardinals +3.5

5*Chicago Bears -3

This will the Buccaneers longest road trip so far this season and they have fewer days to prepare. The Bears are ranked #1 in total defense while the Bucs are ranked #29 at Football Outsiders. Chicago is ranked 10 spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Bears will have a huge advantage in special teams as well. There are distractions with Winston coming back so that means Fitzpatrick took less reps in practice. Tampa Bay has played three high-scoring games to begin the season and this feels like a flat spot to me. Take the Bears!

5*California Golden Bears +3 (-103)

  This will be the Ducks' fifth game in 28 days. Tough. They blew a 10-point lead with 3:12 left in the final quarter against Stanford only to lose in OT last week. That was a game they really wanted to win. I don't think this is a great spot for the Ducks considering the Golden Bears will be playing with two weeks to prepare. Last season, Oregon defeated California 45-24, while Outrushing them 328-8. That's right, the Golden Bears only had 8 rushing yards for the entire game. The home team is holding opponents QB to a 91.8 rating, while Oregon is allowing QB foes to pass at a 144.7 clip. That ranks in the bottom half for any winning team so far this season. Take the home dog in this one! 

4*BYU +17.5

4*Georgia Southern +3.5

4*Indianapolis Colts +7

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

4*Washington Redskins +3.5

4*Oregon Ducks +2.5

4*Vanderbilt +2.5

4*Purdue +7

5*Indianapolis Colts +6

The Colts are my top selection in the Wise Guys contest. Love them in this spot. The Colts allowed the Bengals three scores in the final 19 minutes otherwise this line would be closer to 4.5 points. The Colts have an underrated front 7 in my opinion and they outgained the Bengals 380-330 last week. Washington defeated a team that is projected to be one of the worst. The Redskins ran 75 plays and you want to fade NFL favorites that run 70+ plays off a win. I know for a fact the oddsmakers inflated this line on purpose. The Colts with Andrew Luck at QB are a sparkling 10-1 ATS as underdogs when playing off a loss.

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -4

I don't play favorites in the NFL very often but this should be a great spot for the home team. The Steelers had a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter against the Browns and only managed a tie. I had Cleveland as a service selection so I was happy with that result. The Steelers committed 6 turnovers and I believe they will be extremely focused in their home opener. The public always remembers what they saw last and that's why this line has come down from the opening number of Steelers -5.5. At one high-limit sportsbook 82% of the bets are on Kansas City. They are pounding the Chiefs while the Wise Guys are all over Pittsburgh. I don't think this line will dip below 4. It might go back up though. The Steelers are 51-33 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the black and gold! 

10*Utah Utes +7

The Utes are a real team and have this game circled on their calendar. The Huskies already played their biggest game of the season in week one against Auburn. Utah has been holding back in terms of scheming in anticipation of this matchup. The Utes are 36-19 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points since 1993. Washington has a huge revenge game on deck against Arizona State. Take the home dog!

 4*TCU +13.5

4*Syracuse +3

4*Cleveland Browns +6

4*Houston Texans +7

5*New York Giants +3

The Giants should be much improved with new head coach Pat Shurmur running the show. The big handicap in this game is simple. The Jaguars have no clue what type of offense the Giants will be implementing. On the flip side, the Jaguars like to run the ball early and often thus making them kinda predictable. Take the home dog!

4*Stanford -5.5

5*Kansas State +9.5

I like the head coach and this team returns nearly all of its personnel on offense. The Wildcats defense held their last 8 foes below their scoring average last season. Kansas State had a scare last week in winning 27-24 against South Dakota. Should be much more focused in this one. This game should be a lot closer than most people think. Take the home team!

5*Western Michigan +6

This is a best bet selection based solely on my Power ratings. Because this is the first game of the year for both teams, I have this game at Syracuse -3.5. I will take the overlay with the home team.

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Yes the Vikings have a terrific defense, but don't sleep on this Eagles squad. Philadelphia has the #1 ranked front 7 according to Football Outsiders. Minnesota is ranked 13th. The Vikings played seven true road games (one in London where the crowd was cheering for them) that produced just a +2 point differential. To that point, they are ranked 21st in Net yards per play on the road. Minnesota is coming off an emotional miracle victory, and I wonder just how much pep they will have. I like the Eagles who are in the same exact spot as last week. A home team getting points in playoffs. Almost unheard of. Take Philly!

5*New Orleans Saints +5

This is a rematch from week one when the Vikings defeated New Orleans 29-19 as 3-point road underdogs. Sam Bradford and Dalvin Cook played big roles so that game is meaningless. New Orleans has gone 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in revenge games of late. The Saints are ranked 1st in Net Yards per play (6.3) while the Vikings are averaging 5.4 Net Yards per play, which ranks 12th. We get the QB (Drew Brees) and head coach with significant more postseason experience. Sean Payton is 7-4 SU in the postseason, including a Super Bowl victory in 2009. Mike Zimmer is 0-1. The Saints are ranked 1st in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. The Vikings are ranked 4th. The Saints have the better numbers in five of the remaining six key analytical stats. New Orleans is also ranked higher in time of possession, red zone efficiency, and the kicking game. This is a classic overlay. Take the road dog!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Falcons played a very physical game last week and now must travel once again. Tough. This line would be Eagles -3.5 if Carson Wenztz was the starting QB. Yes he's the read deal, but Nick Foles has a lot of experience and his career QB rating is just six points lower than Matt Ryan. The Eagles have a strong running game (132.2 ypg) going up against a defense that is allowing 105 rushing ypg. The Falcons stop side is allowing a passer rating against of 88.4, which ranks last of the remaining playoff teams. Keep in mind, the Falcons are 6-12 ATS in all playoff games since 1993, including 1-6 ATS off an upset victory. Atlanta is ranked #15 in Overall Team Efficiency while the Eagles are ranked 5th at Football Outsiders. The Eagles are also ranked 5th in overall defense while the Falcons are ranked #22. Philadelphia is allowing just 211 passing yards per contest at home. Take the hungry and undervalued Eagles!

5*Alabama -3.5

I think the Crimson Tide will ride their experience and head coach to an easy victory. This line should be closer to 5. Georgia is coming off an emotional victory and now must travel back home to play a team on a mission after losing last year's Championship. Nick Saban has game planed extremely well against freshman QB's that are one-dimensional. I will swallow the 3.5 points and go with Alabama.

5*Carolina Panthers +7

These teams are very familiar with one another, and digging through the analytics I see some value on the underdog. The Panthers defense is ranked 7th at Football Outsiders while the Chiefs are ranked 30th. That's a big difference and consider the Panthers are allowing just 88 rushing yards per game, going against the Saints who like to run early. Carolina is ranked just eight spots lower than KC in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. It's also very difficult for a team (Saints) to defeat the same team (Panthers) three times in a given season. Carolina is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs. I'll take the points in this upset special!

5*Tennessee Titans +9

I think this line way too high. The Titans are allowing less yards per game and per play than the chalky Chiefs. The game will be played in freezing conditions and both teams will be playing a run first, pass late offense. The Titans have really good players on the offensive and defensive lines. Marcus Mariota will be able to pick up some key first downs with his running ability. Tennessee is much superior at stopping the run. Wild Card underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense are cashing 66% over the past five seasons. This is a must take!

5*Miami U +6

Before the season started, I wrote about three College Football Spotlight teams which you can read at my website. The previous two (Michigan State & Texas) both won and covered their respected bowl games. Miami was my third. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up to play in the Orange Bowl at home. They've had tremendous success in this Bowl game and the fans will surely be on the Hurricanes' side. Wisconsin had its dream crushed in losing to Ohio State otherwise they would be in the playoffs. I think this line should be closer to 4. Don't forget ACC Bowl underdogs are 9-2 SU against Big 10 opponents. I will side with the Miami U plus the points.

10*New Mexico State +4.5

This should be named the Aggie Bowl. I believe the team from Las Cruces will be extremely motivated to win their first Bowl game since the 1960 Sun Bowl. It's been 57 years since New Mexico State has gone bowling. Only 275 miles from home, the team from Las Cruces should be well-represented in the stands. The Aggies of New Mexico State owns better stats on both sides of the ball, especially against other bowl teams. New Mexico State has dropped three straight against Utah State which brings me to this stat. Non-Conference triple revenge underdogs of 5 or less points are a sterling 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the bowls. Lets take the generous 4.5 points in the Arizona Bowl!

5*Purdue +3

High-powered offenses (Arizona) tend to struggle as favorites with a month of rest. The Boilermakers improving defense will make it tough on Tate and company. Purdue went 5-2 ATS vs. other bowl teams while Arizona went 2-5 ATS. The Wildcats are allowing 6.5 net yards per play against other bowl teams while Purdue allowed just 5.5 net yards per play. Purdue had to pull an upset at Iowa to have a shot at a bowl game. I sense this will be a motivated team seeking to give Purdue its first winning season and bowl victory since 2011. Lastly, Rich Rodriguez has coached his teams to a 2-8 ATS bowl record in his career.

5*Northern Illinois +5.5

The Huskies own the better offense and defense. Duke is coming off back-to-back underdog revenge wins against GA Tech and Wake Forrest to become bowl eligible. They are now favorites despite going 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS against other bowl teams. Not to mention, they were outgained in five of those seven games. Northern Illinois is allowing just 4.6 net yards per play while Duke is allowing 5.4 net yards per play. I like the Huskies plus the points!

4*San Francisco 49ers +4.5

5*Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

This one is quite simple for me. I believe the Bengals will play extremely hard in the last home game that Marvin Lewis will coach in. The Lions are a dome team having to play in very cold conditions where the kickoff temp is expected to be in the mid 30s. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS as home underdogs in December under Lewis. Take the Cats!

4*Tennessee Titans +7

5*Central Michigan +1

Central Michigan should be extremely motivated after losing last year's Bowl game by 45 points. The Chippewas are averaging 5.9 net yards per play on the road compare to 3.9 for Wyoming, which ranks 4th worst in the nation. Eight or more win bowl teams coming off a 40+ bowl loss have gone 9-3 SU of late. I have CM as 2-point chalk so lets trust my numbers and take the Chippewas.