4*Washington State +6.5

4*NC State +3

4*Seattle Seahawks +7.5

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -2

There are a few games every season when you think Las Vegas made a mistake with the line. This is a classic "trap" line. The Public will say I get Dallas and 2 points with a team that is ranked No. 4 in points per game and 4th in points against. The NFL doesn't work like that. The Steelers are in the middle of the pack in both, but this is more about how the Steelers played last week against the Ravens. I would expect the Steelers to play a much cleaner game against the Cowboys, who will be playing its second consecutive road game. Sometimes in the NFL you have to ignore the stats and go with your gut. And it's telling me that the Cowboys are due for a loss and the Steelers are due for a win. The Steelers normally bounce back after ugly games especially at home. Take the host!

5*New York Jets -121 (money line)

The Rams played a very physical game last week against Carolina and will now travel to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM body clock) game. Tough. The Jets should be focused in this spot especially after having some of their players suspended for the first quarter of last week's game. These two teams have very good defensive lines, but the Jets offensive live has looked much better to me. Take the host! 

4* Philadelphia Eagles +2

4*Minnesota U +7

4*Oregon +3 (+100)

4*Troy -106 (money line)

4*Navy +1.5

5*LA Rams +3.5

The Panthers are coming off a physical game against Arizona and will now play their first West Coast game of the season. This is not the same team that went to the Super Bowl in my opinion. Jeff Fisher has been excellent as a home dog in his career, especially off a blowout loss. The Rams are 0-3 SU in their last three games despite out-gaining all three foes. Fisher is 16-7 ATS as a home underdog off a loss of 7 points or more. The Rams' defense should bounce back with a clutch game and the host should enjoy a significant advantage on special teams. The Rams are ranked No. 2, while the Panthers are ranked No. 27 at Football Outsiders. Take the home dog in this one!

5*NY Giants -2

This will be the Eagles third division road game in four weeks. Tough. The Giants will have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles knowing Philly has swept the season series two straight years. Rookie QB's in this league are cashing just 30% when facing a winning team with a week or more of rest after week seven. Speaking of Carson Wentz, his QB rating has seen a steady decline up until the Cowboys game. Dallas had a week of rest and luckily got the cover. Teams now have tape on Wentz and they can see he's got a hitch in his throwing motion on occasion. The Eagles are just 4-10 SU and 4-10 ATS after facing the Cowboys of late. Dallas plays physical and most teams have a hard time bouncing back without rest. Swallow the two points and take the host!

3*Cleveland Browns +7

10*Pittsburgh U +3.5

The Panthers have been waiting for this game all season considering Miami has won nine of the past 10 meetings, including last year's 29-24 triumph in Pittsburgh last year. The Hurricanes have played two physical games in nine days. Miami lost to Notre Dame last week, despite trailing 20-0 and than rallying to take the lead, only to lose in the final minute. The Panthers will have two extra days of rest as they are coming off a 3-point loss to Virginia Tech last Thursday. Miami is leaking oil having been out-gained in five straight games. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

5*Northwestern +7

4*Green Bay Packers +3

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The public keeps pounding the Raiders as this line has moved from Tampa Bay minus -1 to plus +1. Oakland is winning with smoke and mirrors as they haven't out-gained any opponent this year. Oakland's defense is ranked No. 28 according to Football Outsiders which is surprising for a 5-2 team. Tampa Bay checks in with a No. 15 ranking in team defense. Pretty good. The Raiders have benefited from takeaways (+8) which explains their undefeated road record. The Buccaneers are allowing 350.7 yards per game compared to 430.4 for Oakland. I love the Buccaneers' pass defense (237.5 per game) against this Raiders' air attack. The Bucs have won two straight (both on the road) and really want to win this one in front of their home crowd. Tampa Bay is just 3-15 SU at home over the past three seasons. Ignore that trend. This is a different team in a very good spot as a home underdog. Oakland has a big game against the defending Super Bowl Champions (Denver) next week. Take the host to end Oakland's road winning streak!  

4*Houston Texans -2.5

5*Nebraska +8.5

This line seems inflated to me. Nebraska is averaging 477.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. On the flip side, Wisconsin is averaging 382 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. The Cornhuskers' defense is allowing 5.3 yards per play while the host is allowing 4.9 yards per play. Wisconsin has a big revenge game against Northwestern on deck. Speaking of revenge, Nebraska is playing with revenge and undefeated NCAAF teams getting 8 or more points in revenge games are cashing at a 75% clip since 1998. Wisky has played two straight physical games against Iowa and OSU. Nebraska has a big advantage in red-zone efficiency and they are the more disciplined team. Take the road dog in this one!  

5*Baylor -3

Wow, I think we're getting some line value. Baylor is ranked much higher in my power rankings, which would make Baylor 5.5-point road chalk. Texas doesn't have the pass defense that can stop this Bears' aerial attack. The Longhorns' defense has a QB rating against of 160.9, which should benefit the Bears' offense. Texas is allowing 9.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranks in the bottom third in all of College Football. Baylor has two weeks to prepare and will be playing with revenge from a 23-17 loss last season, despite out-gaining Texas 479-307. Baylor has won six of their past seven games following a BYE week. The Longhorns played a physical game last week against Kansas State. I like the Bears in this spot!

4*San Diego Chargers +7

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3

4*Miami Dolphins +3

4*Jacksonville Jaguars -1

4*Kentucky +3

5*Virginia +8.5

The Tar Heels are now in first place atop the ACC Coastal after upsetting Miami Hurricanes last week. North Carolina doesn't have a shut-down defense and I believe this Virginia team will be able to keep this one close. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels have been out-gained by 12 yards in all FBS games this season. This is the week in College Football when ranked teams struggle to win and/or cover against an unranked home team. Virginia is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of any kind over the last three seasons. Take the points in what should be a closer game than most people think.

5*Northwestern -1.5

I have Northwestern ranked much higher in my power rankings. The public has bet this line down from four points based on the Wildcats 4-8 ATS record as a favorite over the last three seasons. They did go 7-5 SU in those 12 games. Two teams heading in opposite directions with the host winning two in a row, while the visitor has lost two straight physical contests. I think the line should be at least Northwestern minus -3 so we are getting some value here. 

4*Dallas Cowboys +4.5

5*Washington Redskins +3

I am going against the public in this one and taking the Redskins as an underdog at home. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be playing their first division game and teams now have film on him and what the Eagles like to do on offense. Washington's defense has been getting stingier with each game and the Redskins check in with a 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs of 3 points or less of late. Take the host!

4*Northern Illinois +3

4*Virginia +3

10*Texas Tech +1

I think this a great spot for the Red Raiders, who are playing with double revenge, including a 5-point road loss last season as 9-point underdogs. The host is allowing 5.8 yards per play while West Virginia is allowing 5.2 yards per play. Texas Tech has a sneaky good defense and the No. 2 ranked offense. The offense is averaging 7.7 yards per play while the visitor is averaging 6.4 yards per play. Texas Tech will be focused at home with a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. This is a trap line with undefeated WV only favored by 1-point against a 3-2 team. Note, West Virginia is 1-9 ATS when playing with rest, including 0-8 in the conference. Take the home team!

5*San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Chargers are this close to being 4-0, but sit at 1-3. San Diego outgained the Saints by 71 points in their 1-point home loss last Sunday. A game they led most of the way. Oakland is 3-1 but they have allowed season-high yardage to all four teams, and they have been outgained in every game this season. The Chargers always give the Raiders a close game (19-7 ATS in Oakland, including 10-0 ATS if the Raiders won their last game). Lets take the points with the better defense in this big division matchup.

5*Tennessee Titans +3.5

This is a game that has been on the Titans' calendar ever since last year's October 18th matchup. The Dolphins crushed Tennessee 38-10 and took out QB Marcus Mariota on a cheap shot with a hit below his knees. In that game Lamar Miller had a huge day. He's not on the roster anymore and Miami is averaging just 77.8 rushing yards per game through four games. The Dolphins offensive line is ranked No. 32 in pass protection, while the Titans are ranked No. 6 according to Football Outsiders. Tennessee owns the better offense and defense and were getting 3.5 points. I like that. Miami is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Dolphins have been outgained in 21 of their past 26 games. Big revenge spot and were getting some line value. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +3.5

4*Tennessee +7

4*Virginia Tech +1.5

4*Army +6

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

5*New York Jets +2.5

10*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars are hungry for a victory and will be playing in London for the third straight season. Indianapolis has never played a regular season game in London. I really believe that's a significant advantage for Jacksonville. The Colts have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. I like taking division underdogs with the better defense. A defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game, compared to 400 for Indy. Dante Fowler Jr. is a full go for the Jags' defense. The Colts are coming off an emotional 4th quarter come-from-behind victory last week. This is a perfect spot for the Jags to win their first game and I think they will. Take the Jags plus the points.

5*Indiana U +7

5*Northern Illinois +4.5

10*Texas Longhorns +3

Texas has the better offense and defense in terms of yards gained and yards per play. Texas held UTEP and California to season-low yards. I also think the Longhorns special teams unit is far superior at this point of the season. The road team has won the last seven games on the field, including last year's 30-27 win by the Cowboys. The key for me this week is that the Longhorns have two weeks to prepare for this big revenge game. Love taking rested underdogs with the better defense in revenge games. Take the 'Horns!

5*Toledo +3.5

The Rockets are 8-2 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. They have outgained their opponent in all 10 games. I like taking College Football underdogs with the better offense and defense if the line is 4 points or less. Toledo owns a +327 Yards Per Game advantage over the host so far this season. BYU has a big game next week against Michigan State at East Lansing. The Cougars are just 3-6 ATS against winning teams over the last three seasons. The Rockets are well-rested and extremely motivated. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Indianapolis Colts -127  (money line)

The Colts return home off their disappointing loss against the Broncos. The Colts fell apart in the second half and will now play a Chargers' team that has lost WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead to the same injury. Indianapolis needs a win in the worst way after starting the season 0-2. Andrew Luck is 16-5 straight up off a loss in his career, including 9-0 after a defeat of 14 or more points. The Chargers are just 5-12 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Take the host!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jaguars return home off their embarrassing performance in San Diego. Jacksonville should be pumped up for this game knowing a third straight loss to begin the season will really damper its playoff hopes. The Jags are 0-2, but have won the stats in both games. This team is poised to play a really good game. Baltimore didn't impress me in their comeback win against the Browns as Cleveland outgained the Ravens. Northern teams often struggle when playing games in the Sunshine state during this month. Take the home dog!  

5*Arkansas +6.5

I really like the Razorbacks this season and in this spot. Texas A&M is coming off a big revenge win last week against Auburn. The Aggies have won four straight in the series including overtime wins in 2014 and 2015. They won in OT last season despite Arkansas outgaining Texas A&M 457-423. This game will be played at AT&T stadium in Arlington. There will be some Arkansas fans in the building for sure. This line is too high and should be closer to 4 points based on my power rankings. Arkansas is 7-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. Take the road dog in this one!

5*Florida Gators +7

The Gators have a really good defense (top-ranked) and backup QB Austin Appleby is more than capable of pulling off the upset victory. Appleby has played in big stadiums before when he was with Purdue. His teammates have a lot of confidence in him and so do I. He's a big kid (6' 5", 229) that knows how to prepare the right way. Florida has defeated Tennessee in 19 of the past 23 matchups, with only one loss by more than three points. The Vols offense doesn't scare me against this Florida defense. Take the points! 

4*South Florida +5.5

5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

No team is as bad as they looked in the NFL and Vice Versa especially after week one. The Falcons should be able to score some points on this Raiders' defense. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay in their week one loss while the Raiders were outgained in its win over the Saints. Oakland's offensive line is very "nicked" up and their depth will be tested in this game. The Underdog is 14-3 ATS in Dan Quinn's head coaching career. While I am high on the Raiders this season, this is a role that Oakland has struggled with. The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games when installed as the favorite. I have the Raiders just 3-points better at home against Atlanta. NFL teams that are 0-1 facing a 1-0 team have a lot of motivation to not begin the season 0-2. Close game by a FG either way. Take the road dog this one!

4*Tennessee Titans +6

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*East Carolina +3.5

4*Nebraska -3.5 (+104)

5*Bowling Green +6.5

I think this line is way out of whack. Bowling Green lost to Vanderbilt last week by 23 points despite outgaining the Commodores by 151 yards. My power rankings have the Falcons a 3.5-point underdogs. I think we are getting tremendous line value. Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS against MAC foes since 1993. Take the home dog in this one!

5*New England Patriots +6

The Patriots have a very good defense, especially their front 7. The Cardinals' offensive line struggled early in preseason games and that was their first team unit. Carson Palmer is an above average thrower, but struggles with pressure in the pocket. Bill Belichick has been excellent with extra time to prepare and as an underdog. In fact, Belichick is 12-4 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more points in his time with the Patriots. I think New England with be just fine without Tom Brady for the first four games because of the brilliance of Belichick. Arizona has led the league in turnover differential for two consecutive seasons and that tends to regress to the mean over time. I will trust my numbers (2.5-point line value) and take the road underdog in this spot.

5*San Diego Chargers +7

The Chargers went 0-6 in all division games last season, despite having positive overall stats (gained more yards than allowed). Head Coach Mike McCoy has made it a point of emphases this season to be much better within the AFC West. San Diego showed nothing during the preseason so don't be scared about the team's performance last month. The offensive line is healthy and with the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers should have a pretty good offense this year. Kansas City relies on a good running game and playing stout defense. No Jamaal Charles in this one. Philip Rivers is a sparkling 10-2-1 ATS as road underdogs in all division games in his career. Lastly, NFL teams that missed the playoffs are 17-6 ATS when playing a team that made the playoffs in week one over the last four seasons combined. This line seems a bit inflated to me. Take the Chargers plus seven!

4*Chicago Bears +6

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

4*San Diego State -7

4*East Carolina +5.5

4*Purdue +6

5*Wyoming +9.5

The Cowboys only won two games last season while Northern Illinois has won six straight MAC West titles. This game will be played at altitude something Northern Illinois is not use too. The Cowboys have a plethora of returning starters and more talent than in year's past. Wyoming has won 13 out of their past 14 home openers with that one loss coming last year against North Dakota State. I will trust my numbers (2.5 point line value) and take the home underdog in this spot.

5*Southern Miss +7

Southern Miss has a new head coach with the hiring of Jay Hopson, a 24-year veteran of coaching college football, including stints with his new team as defensive coordinator. He led conference USA in scoring defense in each of his three seasons with the Golden Eagles. The offense should be in good shape with QB Nick Mullens returning along with three good offensive lineman. Southern Miss went 9-5 SU last season (lost Heart of Dallas Bowl 44-31 against Washington) and should be just as good this year. With Kentucky facing the Gators next week, I'll grab the points in what should be a very close affair.

4*Colorado State +8.5

5*Denver Broncos +6

This game reminds me of when the Broncos got crushed by the Seahawks 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Denver was favored by -2.5 points with 75% of the public backing them. Carolina opened as 3-point favorites and the line quickly moved with 74% of the bets and close to 90% of the total dollars wagered on the Panthers. The average home-field is worth 3.5 points so that means this would make Carolina -9.5 at home. Crazy. I would expect a pro Broncos crowd in Santa Clara. Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense and they are very active at all three levels. Manning should be able to read Carolina's defense and have some success on the ground and through the air. I think Gary Kubiak will do a great job having Thomas Davis (broken arm) isolated in coverage against one of his running backs. The team with the better defense has won 40 out of the past 49 Super Bowls straight-up. Also, Super Bowl teams with the #1 ranked defense have gone 9-2 SU in Super Bowl history, including a loss last year. The weather will be ideal with Sunny skies and temps approaching 70 by game time. I don't think this line will move much higher so I'm taking the Broncos plus the generous 6 points. 

4*Arizona Cardinals +3

The Panthers defeated the Cardinals in last year's playoffs 27-16 while outgaining Arizona 386-78. Those 78 yards represent an NFL playoff record for fewest yards gained. Carson Palmer watched helplessly from the sidelines as Ryan Lindley threw for just 51 yards. I think Bruce Arians will "play up" the underdog card to his team. The Panthers' secondary has some holes and I believe the road team has the skill on the outside to take advantage. Carolina benefited from one of the easiest schedules and they have been outgained by 232 yards combined in their last three games. Take the points in what should be a very close game! 

5*Seattle vs. Carolina Over 44

Both teams are stout against the run and I would expect Seattle and Carolina to employ more of an uptempo offense in hopes of moving the ball. It's worked all season as the Seahawks and Panthers are ranked #2 and #3 respectively in net yards per drive. Only Arizona is better. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red-zone efficiency. NFL West Coast teams playing and early 10 AM game favors higher-scoring games if the winds are less than 10 MPH. The Over is 33-14 when the total is less than 45 and the weather looks great. Sunny and calm winds. Go Over 44 points! 

5*New England -4

The Patriots are better in my opinion and appear to be getting healthier. I like Bill Belichick with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs' defense is ranked No. 28 in sacks allowed with 46. That's a bad matchup for the road team going against a Patriots team that is ranked 2nd in QB sacks with 49. The Chiefs played in a cozy indoor building last week and now must play a cold-weather game in a tough environment. Ignore the Pats two-game losing streak as injuries and Belichick pulling back the reigns were major factors. New England is being undervalued here. Pats by 7!

NFL Wild Card

4*Minnesota Vikings +5

I am going against the Public in this one and taking the home underdog in what could be one of the coldest games ever played in Minnesota. I would expect a much closer game than the first meeting. The kickoff temp is going to be around 0 degrees. In extremely cold weather you are more likely going to see one-possession games late in the fourth quarter. Both teams have a great running game and barring any crucial turnovers, I think the home team will keep this one close. Mike Zimmer loves playing the underdog card with his team. The Vikings are 21-10 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons, including 6-1 ATS this year.

4*Houston Texans +3.5

The Texans are in a good spot if they can hold up on special teams. Houston has outgained seven of their last eight opponents, while holding six foes to season-low yards. The Texans have a sneaky good offense, averaging about 16 more yards per game than KC. The Chiefs are leaking oil, having been outgained in three of their past five games. Lets not forgot, the Texans outgained KC 396-330 in their 27-20 week one loss at NRG Stadium. Houston is ranked No. 11 in red-zone efficiency. The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS when playing on Saturday and 6-13 ATS in January games since 1993. Both teams mirror each other and I would expect this game to be decided by 3 points or less.

10*Oakland Raiders +7

This will be Oakland's Super Bowl. The Raiders lost by 14 points despite outgaining the Chiefs 361-232 in the first meeting back in early December. In fact, the Raiders blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead and should be focused at finishing the season at .500, after Vegas pegged their win total at 5.5 wins for the season. The Chiefs can only win the division if the Broncos lose at home as 10-point chalk against the Chargers. Kansas City is primed for a let down after winning nine straight to reach the playoffs. They are leaking oil, having been outgained by 89 and 110 yards respectively the last two weeks. Oakland has a sneaky good defense, allowing 5.6 yards per play while the Chiefs are allowing 5.4 yards per play. NFL division games tend to be closer in the second same-season meeting. The Raiders are 29-14 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points, while the Chiefs are 6-12 ATS in January games since 1993. I would expect a very close game so lets take the road dog in this spot! 

4*Penn State +6.5

4*Northwestern +9

5*Michigan State +10

The Spartans have a QB that will be playing on Sunday's while Alabama is pretty much one-dimensional. I have this line closer to 8 so I'm taking the points with Michigan State. The SEC conference was sub-par while the Big 10 is arguably the best this season. The eye test tells me this will be a closer game than what the line indicates.

5*Mississippi State -5

The Bulldogs are led by a bunch of seniors, including QB Dak Prescott who is looking to make up for the way last season ended. He will also be playing in the Senior Bowl. Mississippi State is ranked 26 spots higher in the Las Vegas College Bowl Rankings. NC State went 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS vs. other Bowl teams, getting outgained in all five games. The Bulldogs went 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, and won the stats in five of their eight games against other bowl teams.

5*Air Force +7.5

The Falcons have all the motivation in this one and bring a potent rushing attack (322 YPG), going against one of the poorest rushing defenses of all the Bowl teams, allowing over 200 yards per game. The Bears are ranked No .102 against-the-run nationally and have the fifth-worse rushing defense of all the bowl teams. California is also ranked No. 124 in red zone defense. Air Force has a sneaky good defense allowing 5.5 yards per play, while California is allowing 6.1 yards per play. The Bears are 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS against winning teams over the last three seasons. Take the underdog in this overlay!  

4*New York Giants +5.5

10*Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Panthers' defense is leaking, allowing 38 and 35 points in their last two road games. Carolina is coming off a very physical game against the Giants last week and will be facing a team who has a lot to play for. The Falcons are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and they remember these same Panthers embarrassed them 38-0 just two weeks ago. Carolina held the Falcons to 250 total yards. This is the Falcons' Super Bowl and I would expect a top-notch effort. Look for the home team improve to 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Foster Farms Bowl

5*Nebraska +7

The Cornhuskers clearly have the talent to play with nation's elite, as evident by a win over Michigan State, a 4th-quarter game against Iowa, and a bunch of close losses this season. The Foster Farms Bowl figures to a big deal for head coach Mike Riley and the Cornhuskers, who can end the year on a high note with a win in the state of California, where Riley would to grab some top recruits from. UCLA lost a must-win game that would have clinched the Pac-12 South for the second straight season, and now must make a short trip North to play in a lesser Bowl game. The Bruins have suffered a plethora of injuries that should make them vulnerable in this spot. Love the fact that Nebraska has outgained six straight foes. Last season, Nebraska lost 45-42 as 7-point underdogs against USC in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm stadium. This line should be closer to four. Take Nebraska!

Pinstripe Bowl

5*Duke +2

Duke hasn't won a Bowl game since the 1961 Cotton Bowl and will be motivated to end that streak. The Blue Devils went 1-4 SU  & 1-4 ATS down the stretch, after starting the season with six wins in seven games. Duke's defense is much better, allowing 5.2 yards per play compared to 6.4 for the Hoosiers. Indiana is allowing 37 points per game and have allowed season-high yards in five of the last six games. Duke head coach Cutcliffe is 7-2 ATS in bowl games, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Duke wins outright! 

5*Southern Miss +9

Washington played a tougher schedule, but I believe these two teams style of play will keep this game close. Southern Miss has a passing attack than can score on any defense. Two very strong systems that support the underdog in this one. Bowl dogs of 7 or more points who lost their conference title game are 7-1 ATS. Nine win Bowl dogs of 8 or more points are 14-5 ATS when facing a team that doesn't have a winning record.

10*San Diego State +1.5

The Aztecs have already played in Hawaii earlier this season and did quite well with its 5th-best defense in the nation. San Diego State started slow with a 1-3 SU record, but turned it on winning 9-straight while going 7-1-1 ATS. They have outgained their opponent in nine straight games, thanks in part to a lethal running game and ball-hawking defense. The Bearcats will have to make the very long flight to Hawaii, knowing their defense is one of the worst out of all the Bowl teams. Cincinnati is allowing 5.0 yards per carry which ties in with their 86th-ranked defense. Donnel Pumphrey has rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 touchdowns and should have a huge game. He's averaging 5.5 yards per rush and 14.7 yards per reception. Defense travels well and the Aztecs have the better stop unit by far. They are really focused on capping its 10-win season with a Bowl victory, considering they lost their Bowl game by 1 point last season. The Bearcats are minus -16 in turnover differential, while the Aztecs are plus +19. Wow! The Las Vegas Bowl power rankings have San Diego State ranked 21 spots higher than Cincinnati. The Bearcats went 3-5 SU against Bowl teams, while the Aztecs went 5-2 SU against bowlers this season. SD State by 6!

5*South Florida +2.5

The Bulls are for real and will be playing essentially a home game. South Florida defeated Bowl-bound Temple and Cincinnati as underdogs to cement their legitimacy. They also own a defense that allowed 5.0 Yards per play this season. The Bulls went 5-1 ATS against other Bowl teams while allowing 26 points per game. Western Kentucky allowed 35 points per game against other Bowl teams while also allowing 6.4 yards per play. The Bulls have played Western Kentucky five times since 1999 and they have won all five times. The Bulls have not appeared in a Bowl game since 2010, and I would expect Willie Taggart and company to be pumped-up to the max. The head man is 16-3 ATS as an underdog off a victory. South Florida is 12-3 SU against Conference USA foes since 1993 and the Bulls went 5-1 SU in the state of Florida this season.

10*San Diego Chargers -1.5

The Chargers have scored six points combined in their last two games so nobody will want to back them here except some "sharps". This game will be like the Chargers' Super Bowl, considering they are a potential candidate to relocate. I know 12-year veteran QB Philip Rivers is pumped-up to give the fans a victory at Qualcomm. Miami is the perfect opponent for this Chargers team to play right now. The Dolphins are coming off a Monday Night high-heat & high-humidity physical game and now must travel three time zones off a short week in Week 15 of a long season. That's tough to do and the Chargers bring in the better offense, defense, special teams, red-zone efficiency, and time of possession stats. Miami has been outgained in seven straight games. If that's not enough to make you like the Chargers, maybe this will. Miami clobbered the Chargers 37-0 last November and held San Diego to just 178 total yards. Look for RB Melvin Gordon to have his best game of the season and the home team to improve to 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

5*BYU +2.5

I believe BYU is the more talented team and should be focused big time. They really want to give head coach Bronco Mendenhall one more victory, to reach 100 before he leaves for Virginia. His record of 99-42 is very impressive in 11 seasons with the Cougars. Teams returning to the same Bowl game they won last year (Utah) are 32-48-1 ATS as a favorite. Utah was once 6-0 and had their sites on a bigger bowl game, but losing three of their final six games derailed any chances for that. The Utes seem overrated, considering they've outgained their opponents in just 20 of 63 games over the last five years. Lets take the motivated underdog in the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU plus the generous 2.5 points! 

New Mexico Bowl

5*New Mexico +8.5

New Mexico will be pumped-up for their first Bowl game since 2007, playing a Pac-12 team in front of their home crowd. The Lobos' offense is more suited to hang with Arizona than ever before. New Mexico defeated Mountain-West division powers Boise State, Utah State, and Air Force down the stretch. New Mexico was a solid 4-4 ATS against other bowl teams, while Arizona went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Lets take the motivated home underdog in this spot.

5*Cleveland Browns -1.5

This will be the second straight cold-weather road game for the 49ers. They must now travel cross-country to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM Body Clock) game. The Browns will be playing its third straight home game after going 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in the previous two. NFL teams in this role are cashing just under 70% if the line is +3 to -3. This seems like a great spot for the home team to end its long embarrassing losing streak. San Francisco is 1-5 SU on the road this season and hasn't won back-to-back road games with this new regime. The 49ers have been outgained by a whopping 953 yards in their six road games this season. They are 0-6 ITS (in the stats) on the road and 2-10 ITS overall. At five reputable sportsbooks combined, 71% of the bets are coming in on the road team and the line hasn't moved. This seems like a trap line and the smart play is on the home team. While I'm not a fan of Manziel's long term success in this league, I do believe he can make enough plays with his arm and legs to win this game. 

5*St. Louis Rams +3

The Lions are coming off a tough emotional loss, losing on a hail-marry and now must travel to St. Louis. The Rams are coming off a dismal effort losing 27-3 at home to the Cardinals. The public has bet this game from Lions +1 to Lions -3. The big advantage for the Rams is the offensive line. St. Louis is ranked No. 2, allowing just 15 QB sacks this season, while the Lions are ranked 19th, allowing 31 sacks through last week. The Rams have the better running game and better scoring defense. I like them in this spot getting three points after last week's ugly showing.

4*New Orleans Saints +7

4*Oakland Raiders +3

4*Cleveland Browns +10

4*St. Louis Rams +6

5*Temple Owls +6.5

The Cougars only loss this season was to Uconn who is ranked No. 34 in total defense. Temple brings in the 18th ranked defense in the nation, allowing 328 yards per game. Both teams recently played Memphis at home. Temple won 31-12 as 3.5-point underdogs while outgaining Memphis by a whopping 229 yards. On the flip side, Houston defeated Memphis 35-34 as 4.5-point chalk while getting outgained by 98 yards. The Owls love this role and will look to improve to 4-0 ATS as road underdogs this season. Temple has advantages in the kicking game, discipline, red-zone efficiency, and time of possession. Take the road dog in this overlay! 

4*Denver Broncos +3

4*Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5

5*New Orleans Saints +3

I wanted to see how teams (Saints) with worst defense in terms of points allowed (318) have performed after its BYE week. The numbers suggest these teams play much better with two weeks to prepare, after hearing how bad its defense has been. NFL teams that are ranked last in points allowed have gone 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS coming of a BYE after Week 10 of the season. Also, the Texans are just 5-12-1 ATS following a straight-up win and will now face a new defensive coordinator in his first game with two weeks to prepare. Houston doesn't really know what to expect from the Saints on defense. All of the previous Saints' games on tape with Ryan running the defense are useless to the Texans' coaching staff. I like the Saints to win this game outright!

10*Florida +3

The Gators are well-coached under Jim McElwain and will bring in the better defense. Florida has held nine foes to season low or second low yards this year. Florida defeated Ole Miss 38-10 as a 7-point home underdogs earlier this season. Florida still has a chance at a top four NCAAF playoff birth by winning this game and the SEC Title game next week. The Las Vegas College Football rankings has Florida ranked No. 9 and FSU No. 18. That equates to about 4.5 points. Florida was clearly looking ahead to this game in last week's OT win against FAU. Win or lose, FSU is almost guaranteed a spot in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31. I believe the wrong team is favored and will gladly take the motivated Gators at home in this spot.