4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6

4*Tennessee Titans -1.5

5*San Diego State +3.5

The host was outgained by 149 yards in last week's win against NMSU. Note, the Sun Devils have been outgained in 10 straight games dating back to last season. SD State has won the stats in seven of their past 10 games. The Aztecs are the more talented team in my opinion and will gladly take the three and a hook. 

5*Middle Tenn State +10.5

The Blue Raiders equaled their lowest scoring output at home since 2009, managing just 6 points against Vandy. Head Coach Rick Stockstill is 8-1 ATS in his career with Middle Tenn State following a loss of more than 20 points. The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 11 points since 1993. Fact is, the total suggests a high-scoring game and this line should be closer to 8 points. Take the hungry road dog in this huge upset maker!

5*Appalachian State +14.5

The Bulldogs have issues on the offensive line and defensive backfield. App State has a real defense and should be able to keep this one within two touchdowns. I have the the host favored by 12 points. Good value here. Take the road dog!

4*Troy +11

5*New England Patriots -3

I think the Patriots' scheme will create mismatches against this Falcons' defense. A defense that has allowed the second most points in Super Bowl history. New England has outgained its opponent in nine straight games. These teams are perfect in the Super Bowl, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. The Patriots' offensive line is significantly better in pass protection, which is key in Super Bowl handicapping. New England has an underrated secondary that should be able to hold the Falcons to FG attempts on multiple possessions. New England owns the better red zone stats and is the more disciplined team. The Patriots have tons of "big game" experience, while the Falcons are a relatively young team. Nerves could creep in a little bit. That is a major factor and history has told us such. We get a future Hall of Fame head coach & QB with an extra week to prepare. Including the postseason, New England is 15-4 SU with an extra week of rest. I think this line is only heading higher. I like the Patriots by 7 in Super Bowl 51!

5*Seattle Seahawks +5

We are getting about an extra point with Earl Thomas not being able to play. These two teams are very familiar with each other and I think this will be a closer game than most people expect. I will gladly take the points with a defense that is ranked 22 spots higher (No. 5) than the host (No. 27), according to Football Outsiders. The Seahawks have outgained their opponent in six straight games and have a ton of postseason experience. This game won't feel too big for them. The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS as underdogs with QB Russell Wilson under center in his career. Take the road dog in this spot! 

5*Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers defeated the Giants 23-16, as 7-point home chalk on October 9th. Green Bay outgained New York 406-221. Eli Manning has never really been good in extreme cold and temps are expected to be around 15 degrees. I think this line is soft and should close higher. Green Bay is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Packers own the better red zone stats which is key in the playoffs. We get the better coach with a ton of postseason experience. Take the host!

4*Penn State +8

4*Iowa +3

4*Miami Dolphins +10

4*NY Jets +3.5

5*Nebraska +7.5

10*Colorado Buffaloes -3

This is a more meaningful game for Colorado as they haven't won a bowl game since 2004. The Buffaloes will be making their first bowl appearance since 2007, and I know for a fact they want to win this game for reasons that go beyond football. Oklahoma State missed a chance for the Sugar Bowl by losing to Oklahoma and have gone 7-14 SU after playing the Sooners of late. The key for Colorado this season has been rushing for 100+ yards. They are 10-0 SU when running for 100 or more yards, but 0-3 when held under 100. Considering the Cowboys are allowing 205 rushing yards per game, I think that benefits the Buffs. Oklahoma State has a good passing game, but Colorado counters with the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the nation. The Buffs' defense held four foes to season-low yardage while the Cowboys are allowing 457 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. OK State allowed 500+ yards on five different occasions this season. These teams have historically been bad in their bowl game. Take Colorado!

4*Northwestern +5.5

I like unranked bowl underdogs vs. ranked teams and the Panthers fall into a great play against system over the years. Teams that scored 60 or more points in their last game are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS of late. We also get the much better defense. The Wildcats allowed just 22 points this season, while Pittsburgh allowed 36 per contest. Against other bowl teams NW is allowing 5.2 yards per play and 24.0 points per game, while Pittsburgh is allowing 6.8 yards per play and 41 points per game. I think Northwestern will be motivated to finish the season with a victory after last year's 10-win performance.

Independence Bowl

4*Vanderbilt +6

St. Petersberg Bowl

5*Miami (OH) +14.5

The RedHawks won six straight games to become bowl-eligible for this first time since 2010. Miami OH played five bowl teams this season and outgained every single foe. NC State played eight bowl teams and only managed to outgain their opponent on four occasions. The RedHawks are 18-9 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and have gone 4-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival of late. I will trust my numbers and grab the points with the RedHawks.

10*Denver Broncos +3 (+110)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been outgained in six of their past seven games, and are allowing more yards than they gain this season. Denver plays with same season revenge from a 30-27 setback on November 27th. We note that the Broncos outgained KC 464-273 in that overtime loss. Denver has dropped two in a row and I think they will bounce back behind their defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 yards per play this season, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 65.6 passer rating. NFL teams are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS after playing the Tennessee Titans since Week nine. Super Bowl winning teams have been gold after losing exactly two games in a row. I'll take the points with the hungry Broncos in this spot!

5*Wyoming +10.5

These two teams were rivals before BYU leaving the MWC to become independent in 2010. Wyoming has been great as an underdog this season going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Cowboys are hugely motivated and this is way too many points for a team that defeated thirteen-ranked Boise State on Halloween weekend. This will be Wyoming's first Bowl game since 2011, when they lost to Temple in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. We note that Bowl teams with 8+ wins on the season are a sparkling 27-9 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more points of late. The Cowboys (.576) played a much tougher schedule than BYU (.469) this season. Wyoming went 4-4 ITS (in the stats) while BYU went 1-4 ITS against other bowl teams. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS with extra rest in their last five tries. I think this line is out of whack so lets take the double digits in what should be a closer game than most people think!

5*Chicago Bears +5.5

This is basically the Bears' Super Bowl and they will fight to the end with John Fox as head coach. Matt Barkley has played well at the QB position. These two teams are very familiar with each other's scheme. Aaron Rodgers is hobbled and they are coming off an emotional victory against Seattle last week. NFL teams are 14-27-3 as favorites after facing Pete Carroll's Seahawks the previous week. The Bears have the better defense and sport an 89.9 QB rating against. Pretty good. Take the hungry host!

5*Tennessee Titans +5.5

Marcus Mariota is getting better with each game and will be ready for the coldest game of his career. The Titans strong running game (144.5 per game) should perform well against this current Chiefs' run defense (122.9 yards against) in frigid conditions. Kansas City has been outgained in five of their past six games. I'll take the better offense and defense getting five and the hook every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Take the road dog in this upset maker! 

5*Appalachian State +1.5

The Mountaineers return to the Camellia Bowl for the second straight year. They won last year on a late FG before falling behind by three touchdowns. App State should learn from what happened in 2015. I also believe that high-powered offenses (Toledo) don't perform well with significant time off. How motivated is Toledo after losing their conference title game 55-35 to Western Michigan. The Rockets were hoping for a bigger bowl game. Defense travels well and the Mountaineers are dynamic on the stop side. They are allowing 4.9 yards per play which ranks in the top third of all the bowl teams. App State is very good running the ball and Toledo has struggled at stopping the run. Bowl favorites are just 4-16-2 ATS if they allowed 50 or more points in their conference championship game. Take App State!

4*UTSA +8

5*Green Bay Packers +3

The Packers can't afford any slip-ups and should be primed for a big effort at home. It will be very cold and the Packers are more accustomed to playing in frigid conditions. Seattle is coming off an emotional revenge game against the Carolina Panthers, and they have a big revenge game on deck (Thursday) against the LA Rams. Earl Thomas is OUT and he is the QB of the defense. He will be missed in this spot. Green Bay is 30-13 straight up in December home games of late. Take the hungry host!

4*Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

5*Arizona Cardinals -2.5

The Cardinals return home off a blowout loss against the Falcons and head coach Bruce Arians should have his team razor sharp. The coach has gone 4-0 SU after two consecutive losses in his Arizona career. They bring in the better defense and are holding opposing QB's to a 74.3 passer rating. The Redskins like to throw the ball and the Cardinals are solid against the pass, holding foes to just 195.1 yards per game. This is basically the Cardinals' Super Bowl knowing they can't afford another loss. Washington just played a physical game against Dallas and has a big game against the Eagles on deck. Arizona is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their past five games against the NFC East. Take the hungry host.

4*Penn State +3

4*Oklahoma State +12

5*Temple +3

The Owls own the better defense and getting three points. I like that especially since Temple was in this same spot last season and lost to Houston U, holding the Cougars to 24 points, which was 16 below their season average. Temple has held 10 teams to season low or second low yardage this season. Navy has scored 141 points in their last two games and now must play a stop unit that is holding foes to just 273.8 yards per game. The Owls have future NFL players all over its defense. Temple has outgained its opponent in nine straight games. Navy is 1-4 ATS before colliding with Army. I will back Temple plus the points in this AAC Championship game.

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Buccaneers have won two in a row and have historically played the Seahawks tough. In 2013, Seattle defeated Tampa Bay 27-24 in overtime, but failed to cover the 16-point home spread. Tampa Bay has a rising star at QB and should be able to score enough points against a defense that will be missing some key personnel. Seattle is making its third trip into the Eastern Time Zone and have traveled more miles than any other team not playing in London. Seattle has a ginormous playoff revenge game against Carolina on deck. Look for the Buccaneers to make it four straight covers against the Seahawks. Take the host!

4*Cleveland Browns +7

10*Vanderbilt +7.5

The Commodores need a win to become bowl-eligible and will be playing with double revenge. Vandy has covered three of the past four meetings and usually plays close games against the visitor. I think Vanderbilt has a great chance to win this game outright, considering they will bring in the better defense. Also, Tennessee has no chance to win the SEC East so I have to question if they will bring their "A" game. The Commodores are cashing 72% as underdogs of 6.5 or more points under head coach Derek Mason. Finally, the Volunteers are 2-10 ATS after a straight up win of more than 20 points. Take the hungry host!

4*Washington Redskins +7

The Cowboys defeated the Redskins earlier this season, 27-23 as 3.5-point road underdogs in a game yours truly was on. I will fade them in this rematch considering the Redskins outgained Dallas 432-380 in the first game and the underdog has gone 24-9 ATS in the past 33 meetings. Washington has won the stats in six straight games and they rank No. 7 in overall team efficiency. They are a real NFL team and I like them in this big time rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day. Take the generous 7 with the road team and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

4*Indianapolis Colts -2.5

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

5*Baltimore Ravens +8.5

Baltimore is well-coached and have been fantastic under John Harbaugh as an underdog of more than 7 points. He's cashing 75% as an underdog of 7.5 or more points in Non-Conference games in his career. The Underdog in Cowboy games are on a 20-9 ATS run. NFL home favorites are just 13-32 ATS after playing the Steelers with Mike Tomlin as head coach. I can't resist taking the leagues top-ranked defense as more than a TD underdog. I'm going against Jo Public and will back the Ravens plus +8.5 points in this spot.

4*UCLA +13.5

4*Washington State +6.5

4*NC State +3

4*Seattle Seahawks +7.5

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -2

There are a few games every season when you think Las Vegas made a mistake with the line. This is a classic "trap" line. The Public will say I get Dallas and 2 points with a team that is ranked No. 4 in points per game and 4th in points against. The NFL doesn't work like that. The Steelers are in the middle of the pack in both, but this is more about how the Steelers played last week against the Ravens. I would expect the Steelers to play a much cleaner game against the Cowboys, who will be playing its second consecutive road game. Sometimes in the NFL you have to ignore the stats and go with your gut. And it's telling me that the Cowboys are due for a loss and the Steelers are due for a win. The Steelers normally bounce back after ugly games especially at home. Take the host!

5*New York Jets -121 (money line)

The Rams played a very physical game last week against Carolina and will now travel to play a 1:00 PM E (10 AM body clock) game. Tough. The Jets should be focused in this spot especially after having some of their players suspended for the first quarter of last week's game. These two teams have very good defensive lines, but the Jets offensive live has looked much better to me. Take the host! 

4* Philadelphia Eagles +2

4*Minnesota U +7

4*Oregon +3 (+100)

4*Troy -106 (money line)

4*Navy +1.5

5*LA Rams +3.5

The Panthers are coming off a physical game against Arizona and will now play their first West Coast game of the season. This is not the same team that went to the Super Bowl in my opinion. Jeff Fisher has been excellent as a home dog in his career, especially off a blowout loss. The Rams are 0-3 SU in their last three games despite out-gaining all three foes. Fisher is 16-7 ATS as a home underdog off a loss of 7 points or more. The Rams' defense should bounce back with a clutch game and the host should enjoy a significant advantage on special teams. The Rams are ranked No. 2, while the Panthers are ranked No. 27 at Football Outsiders. Take the home dog in this one!

5*NY Giants -2

This will be the Eagles third division road game in four weeks. Tough. The Giants will have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles knowing Philly has swept the season series two straight years. Rookie QB's in this league are cashing just 30% when facing a winning team with a week or more of rest after week seven. Speaking of Carson Wentz, his QB rating has seen a steady decline up until the Cowboys game. Dallas had a week of rest and luckily got the cover. Teams now have tape on Wentz and they can see he's got a hitch in his throwing motion on occasion. The Eagles are just 4-10 SU and 4-10 ATS after facing the Cowboys of late. Dallas plays physical and most teams have a hard time bouncing back without rest. Swallow the two points and take the host!

3*Cleveland Browns +7

10*Pittsburgh U +3.5

The Panthers have been waiting for this game all season considering Miami has won nine of the past 10 meetings, including last year's 29-24 triumph in Pittsburgh last year. The Hurricanes have played two physical games in nine days. Miami lost to Notre Dame last week, despite trailing 20-0 and than rallying to take the lead, only to lose in the final minute. The Panthers will have two extra days of rest as they are coming off a 3-point loss to Virginia Tech last Thursday. Miami is leaking oil having been out-gained in five straight games. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

5*Northwestern +7

4*Green Bay Packers +3

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1

The public keeps pounding the Raiders as this line has moved from Tampa Bay minus -1 to plus +1. Oakland is winning with smoke and mirrors as they haven't out-gained any opponent this year. Oakland's defense is ranked No. 28 according to Football Outsiders which is surprising for a 5-2 team. Tampa Bay checks in with a No. 15 ranking in team defense. Pretty good. The Raiders have benefited from takeaways (+8) which explains their undefeated road record. The Buccaneers are allowing 350.7 yards per game compared to 430.4 for Oakland. I love the Buccaneers' pass defense (237.5 per game) against this Raiders' air attack. The Bucs have won two straight (both on the road) and really want to win this one in front of their home crowd. Tampa Bay is just 3-15 SU at home over the past three seasons. Ignore that trend. This is a different team in a very good spot as a home underdog. Oakland has a big game against the defending Super Bowl Champions (Denver) next week. Take the host to end Oakland's road winning streak!  

4*Houston Texans -2.5

5*Nebraska +8.5

This line seems inflated to me. Nebraska is averaging 477.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. On the flip side, Wisconsin is averaging 382 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. The Cornhuskers' defense is allowing 5.3 yards per play while the host is allowing 4.9 yards per play. Wisconsin has a big revenge game against Northwestern on deck. Speaking of revenge, Nebraska is playing with revenge and undefeated NCAAF teams getting 8 or more points in revenge games are cashing at a 75% clip since 1998. Wisky has played two straight physical games against Iowa and OSU. Nebraska has a big advantage in red-zone efficiency and they are the more disciplined team. Take the road dog in this one!  

5*Baylor -3

Wow, I think we're getting some line value. Baylor is ranked much higher in my power rankings, which would make Baylor 5.5-point road chalk. Texas doesn't have the pass defense that can stop this Bears' aerial attack. The Longhorns' defense has a QB rating against of 160.9, which should benefit the Bears' offense. Texas is allowing 9.1 yards per pass attempt, which ranks in the bottom third in all of College Football. Baylor has two weeks to prepare and will be playing with revenge from a 23-17 loss last season, despite out-gaining Texas 479-307. Baylor has won six of their past seven games following a BYE week. The Longhorns played a physical game last week against Kansas State. I like the Bears in this spot!

4*San Diego Chargers +7

4*Philadelphia Eagles +3

4*Miami Dolphins +3

4*Jacksonville Jaguars -1

4*Kentucky +3

5*Virginia +8.5

The Tar Heels are now in first place atop the ACC Coastal after upsetting Miami Hurricanes last week. North Carolina doesn't have a shut-down defense and I believe this Virginia team will be able to keep this one close. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels have been out-gained by 12 yards in all FBS games this season. This is the week in College Football when ranked teams struggle to win and/or cover against an unranked home team. Virginia is 17-4 ATS as an underdog of any kind over the last three seasons. Take the points in what should be a closer game than most people think.

5*Northwestern -1.5

I have Northwestern ranked much higher in my power rankings. The public has bet this line down from four points based on the Wildcats 4-8 ATS record as a favorite over the last three seasons. They did go 7-5 SU in those 12 games. Two teams heading in opposite directions with the host winning two in a row, while the visitor has lost two straight physical contests. I think the line should be at least Northwestern minus -3 so we are getting some value here. 

4*Dallas Cowboys +4.5

5*Washington Redskins +3

I am going against the public in this one and taking the Redskins as an underdog at home. Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be playing their first division game and teams now have film on him and what the Eagles like to do on offense. Washington's defense has been getting stingier with each game and the Redskins check in with a 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs of 3 points or less of late. Take the host!

4*Northern Illinois +3

4*Virginia +3

10*Texas Tech +1

I think this a great spot for the Red Raiders, who are playing with double revenge, including a 5-point road loss last season as 9-point underdogs. The host is allowing 5.8 yards per play while West Virginia is allowing 5.2 yards per play. Texas Tech has a sneaky good defense and the No. 2 ranked offense. The offense is averaging 7.7 yards per play while the visitor is averaging 6.4 yards per play. Texas Tech will be focused at home with a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. This is a trap line with undefeated WV only favored by 1-point against a 3-2 team. Note, West Virginia is 1-9 ATS when playing with rest, including 0-8 in the conference. Take the home team!

5*San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Chargers are this close to being 4-0, but sit at 1-3. San Diego outgained the Saints by 71 points in their 1-point home loss last Sunday. A game they led most of the way. Oakland is 3-1 but they have allowed season-high yardage to all four teams, and they have been outgained in every game this season. The Chargers always give the Raiders a close game (19-7 ATS in Oakland, including 10-0 ATS if the Raiders won their last game). Lets take the points with the better defense in this big division matchup.

5*Tennessee Titans +3.5

This is a game that has been on the Titans' calendar ever since last year's October 18th matchup. The Dolphins crushed Tennessee 38-10 and took out QB Marcus Mariota on a cheap shot with a hit below his knees. In that game Lamar Miller had a huge day. He's not on the roster anymore and Miami is averaging just 77.8 rushing yards per game through four games. The Dolphins offensive line is ranked No. 32 in pass protection, while the Titans are ranked No. 6 according to Football Outsiders. Tennessee owns the better offense and defense and were getting 3.5 points. I like that. Miami is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the past three seasons. The Dolphins have been outgained in 21 of their past 26 games. Big revenge spot and were getting some line value. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +3.5

4*Tennessee +7

4*Virginia Tech +1.5

4*Army +6

5*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

5*New York Jets +2.5

10*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars are hungry for a victory and will be playing in London for the third straight season. Indianapolis has never played a regular season game in London. I really believe that's a significant advantage for Jacksonville. The Colts have issues on the offensive line and in the secondary. I like taking division underdogs with the better defense. A defense that is allowing just 311 yards per game, compared to 400 for Indy. Dante Fowler Jr. is a full go for the Jags' defense. The Colts are coming off an emotional 4th quarter come-from-behind victory last week. This is a perfect spot for the Jags to win their first game and I think they will. Take the Jags plus the points.

5*Indiana U +7

5*Northern Illinois +4.5

10*Texas Longhorns +3

Texas has the better offense and defense in terms of yards gained and yards per play. Texas held UTEP and California to season-low yards. I also think the Longhorns special teams unit is far superior at this point of the season. The road team has won the last seven games on the field, including last year's 30-27 win by the Cowboys. The key for me this week is that the Longhorns have two weeks to prepare for this big revenge game. Love taking rested underdogs with the better defense in revenge games. Take the 'Horns!

5*Toledo +3.5

The Rockets are 8-2 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. They have outgained their opponent in all 10 games. I like taking College Football underdogs with the better offense and defense if the line is 4 points or less. Toledo owns a +327 Yards Per Game advantage over the host so far this season. BYU has a big game next week against Michigan State at East Lansing. The Cougars are just 3-6 ATS against winning teams over the last three seasons. The Rockets are well-rested and extremely motivated. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Indianapolis Colts -127  (money line)

The Colts return home off their disappointing loss against the Broncos. The Colts fell apart in the second half and will now play a Chargers' team that has lost WR Keenan Allen and RB Danny Woodhead to the same injury. Indianapolis needs a win in the worst way after starting the season 0-2. Andrew Luck is 16-5 straight up off a loss in his career, including 9-0 after a defeat of 14 or more points. The Chargers are just 5-12 SU on the road over the last three seasons. Take the host!

5*Jacksonville Jaguars +1

The Jaguars return home off their embarrassing performance in San Diego. Jacksonville should be pumped up for this game knowing a third straight loss to begin the season will really damper its playoff hopes. The Jags are 0-2, but have won the stats in both games. This team is poised to play a really good game. Baltimore didn't impress me in their comeback win against the Browns as Cleveland outgained the Ravens. Northern teams often struggle when playing games in the Sunshine state during this month. Take the home dog!  

5*Arkansas +6.5

I really like the Razorbacks this season and in this spot. Texas A&M is coming off a big revenge win last week against Auburn. The Aggies have won four straight in the series including overtime wins in 2014 and 2015. They won in OT last season despite Arkansas outgaining Texas A&M 457-423. This game will be played at AT&T stadium in Arlington. There will be some Arkansas fans in the building for sure. This line is too high and should be closer to 4 points based on my power rankings. Arkansas is 7-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. Take the road dog in this one!

5*Florida Gators +7

The Gators have a really good defense (top-ranked) and backup QB Austin Appleby is more than capable of pulling off the upset victory. Appleby has played in big stadiums before when he was with Purdue. His teammates have a lot of confidence in him and so do I. He's a big kid (6' 5", 229) that knows how to prepare the right way. Florida has defeated Tennessee in 19 of the past 23 matchups, with only one loss by more than three points. The Vols offense doesn't scare me against this Florida defense. Take the points! 

4*South Florida +5.5

5*Atlanta Falcons +4.5

No team is as bad as they looked in the NFL and Vice Versa especially after week one. The Falcons should be able to score some points on this Raiders' defense. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay in their week one loss while the Raiders were outgained in its win over the Saints. Oakland's offensive line is very "nicked" up and their depth will be tested in this game. The Underdog is 14-3 ATS in Dan Quinn's head coaching career. While I am high on the Raiders this season, this is a role that Oakland has struggled with. The Raiders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games when installed as the favorite. I have the Raiders just 3-points better at home against Atlanta. NFL teams that are 0-1 facing a 1-0 team have a lot of motivation to not begin the season 0-2. Close game by a FG either way. Take the road dog this one!

4*Tennessee Titans +6

4*Cleveland Browns +5

4*East Carolina +3.5

4*Nebraska -3.5 (+104)

5*Bowling Green +6.5

I think this line is way out of whack. Bowling Green lost to Vanderbilt last week by 23 points despite outgaining the Commodores by 151 yards. My power rankings have the Falcons a 3.5-point underdogs. I think we are getting tremendous line value. Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS against MAC foes since 1993. Take the home dog in this one!

5*New England Patriots +6

The Patriots have a very good defense, especially their front 7. The Cardinals' offensive line struggled early in preseason games and that was their first team unit. Carson Palmer is an above average thrower, but struggles with pressure in the pocket. Bill Belichick has been excellent with extra time to prepare and as an underdog. In fact, Belichick is 12-4 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more points in his time with the Patriots. I think New England with be just fine without Tom Brady for the first four games because of the brilliance of Belichick. Arizona has led the league in turnover differential for two consecutive seasons and that tends to regress to the mean over time. I will trust my numbers (2.5-point line value) and take the road underdog in this spot.

5*San Diego Chargers +7

The Chargers went 0-6 in all division games last season, despite having positive overall stats (gained more yards than allowed). Head Coach Mike McCoy has made it a point of emphases this season to be much better within the AFC West. San Diego showed nothing during the preseason so don't be scared about the team's performance last month. The offensive line is healthy and with the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers should have a pretty good offense this year. Kansas City relies on a good running game and playing stout defense. No Jamaal Charles in this one. Philip Rivers is a sparkling 10-2-1 ATS as road underdogs in all division games in his career. Lastly, NFL teams that missed the playoffs are 17-6 ATS when playing a team that made the playoffs in week one over the last four seasons combined. This line seems a bit inflated to me. Take the Chargers plus seven!

4*Chicago Bears +6

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

4*San Diego State -7

4*East Carolina +5.5