5*Ohio State -2.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!

3*Iowa +3

Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.

4*USC +4

The Trojans began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment may give them a slight advantage in comfort and preparation. In contrast, Texas A&M suffered losses in three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. They lost three starting defenseman lineman to the transfer portal, which was the strength of their defense. In last year's Holiday Bowl, USC overcame opt-outs and showed up ready to play, bringing the fight to Louisville. This experience suggests that Lincoln Riley and his staff know how to motivate and prepare the team for postseason play. USC also lost some key players, but they have a deep roster. Dog call.

4*Tennessee +7.5

This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.

3*Memphis -3

No team has lost more players to the transfer portal than the Mountaineers after firing head coach Neal Brown. The Tigers' high-powered offense, 35.2 points per game, should exploit West Virginia's vulnerable defense that allows 31.1 points. Memphis Senior QB Seth Henigan (Texas native) and running back Mario Anderson form a potent offensive duo that will challenge the Mountaineers' 106th-ranked defense. Memphis is riding a wave of momentum, starkly contrasting West Virginia's interim head coaching issues. The Tigers are highly motivated, aiming to defeat a Power-5 team, and their bowl game success (3-0 run) further strengthens their chances to win. The players have a strong affection for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a victory.

3*UNLV +5

Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.

3*Kansas State +2.5

Kansas State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 23 vs. No. 32) and has better net yards per play (+0.9 vs. +0.6). The Wildcats have the better sack differential (+1.6 vs. -0.3) and have outgained 10 of 11 foes this season. Kansas State is ranked 15th in rushing yards per game (202.7), while Iowa State is ranked 100th in rushing yards allowed (176.6). Last year, the Cyclones defeated Kansas State 42-35 as 9.5-point road dogs, despite a 32-10 First down margin and 42:12 to 17:48 time of possession deficit. The underdog is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings. This will be the season's first game in which the Wildcats are underdogs as they look to play spoiler. Take the points!

3*Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have strong cornerbacks, Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, to defend against the pass, which Colorado relies on heavily. Colorado has faced a weaker schedule, ranked No. 41 compared to No. 24, and has yet to secure a victory against a ranked team. Kansas is ranked 19th in both EPA per play and offensive success rate, averaging over 400 yards in four of their last five games. The Buffaloes' offensive metrics are closer to average than elite (42nd EPA per play & 44th in success rate). They've surpassed 400 yards just twice in their last five games. Colorado ranks 23rd in luck rankings, while Kansas is 132nd. The Jayhawks need victories to become bowl-eligible. Strong system on the home dog!

3*Indiana U +13.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Buckeyes' starting Center went down in practice and is out. They are also dealing with other critical injuries up and down the roster. Indiana will be super motivated, considering Ohio State is 10-0 SU against the Hoosiers in their last ten meetings. Ironically, Indiana enters this matchup at 10-0. Take the points!

3*South Alabama +7.5

South Alabama is a talented 4-5 team with two weeks of preparation time, looking to avenge last year's loss despite out-gaining Louisiana 498 to 348 yards. The Jaguars are motivated to win all their remaining games and aim for a bowl appearance. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns only have a little to play for, especially with a significant revenge game against Troy coming up. It's worth noting that the underdog has performed well, going 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings. In their three most recent encounters, South Alabama has been outscored by only 12 points combined. QB Gio Lopez is good to go. I like the road underdog in this matchup!

3*Utah U +4

The Utah Utes are currently ranked 11th in the nation on defense, allowing only 16.5 points per game. As an undefeated team facing a .500 opponent, BYU may enter the matchup feeling overconfident, which could enable Utah to keep the score closer than expected. Playing at home in the Holy War in what should be a low-scoring game significantly enhances Utah's ability to cover four points, as they need wins to become bowl-eligible.

3*South Carolina +2.5

The Gamecocks have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game, while Texas A&M is coming off their biggest win of the season. However, that victory over LSU was somewhat misleading, as the Aggies were outgained in total yards, 429 to 376. They had a favorable plus-two turnover margin and benefited from three missed field goals by LSU. The Aggies have been outgained in three of their last four games, which raises concerns. South Carolina is just two plays away from having a record of 6-1, as they easily could have defeated both LSU and Alabama. The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule (No. 3 vs. No. 7). I like the home dog in this spot.

4*Wisconsin +6.5

Penn State has played a slightly tougher schedule (No. 27 vs. No. 35). Under James Franklin, Penn State is 3-6 straight-up following BYE weeks and 1-3 SU in Big Ten road games. His 41.7% against the spread rate is primary fade bait. In 2018, Michigan State defeated Penn State, and in 2019, Minnesota also secured a victory against them. In 2021, Illinois triumphed over Penn State after a historic nine overtimes. Expect a tough defensive battle between two physical Big Ten teams. Wisconsin’s strong run game and home-field advantage will keep it competitive. They also have much better special teams. After six straight wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions may not have wanted a week off. Penn State faces Ohio State next week.

4*North Carolina +5.5

This line seems inflated, but these two teams are very evenly matched. Virginia is ranked 56th in strength of schedule, while North Carolina is ranked 67th. The Tar Heels own a -0.6 net yards per play, while Virginia averages -0.4 net yards per play this season. Last season, the Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 31-27 as 24-point underdogs despite getting out-gained 490-436. The Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare and should be super focused on snapping their four-game losing streak. Virginia has been excellent against the spread this season but has only been favored by more than five points once. I like the road dog!

3*Nebraska +6.5 (-105)

Both teams are well-rested, coming off a bye week, and have faced similar strength of schedules (Nebraska No. 73 vs. Indiana No. 71). This game is a classic matchup between offense and defense. Indiana's high-powered offense will face a tough challenge against Nebraska's strong defense (13.0 points per game). The BYE week is more challenging for a high-powered offense that produces points every week. The Cornhuskers have the defensive talent to slow down Indiana's attack. An early start time helps the underdog stay within the number.

3*Oregon +3.5

When the schedule was released, I always wanted to play Oregon. This game is significant as it will be Ohio State's first visit to Autzen Stadium since 1967 and only the fourth meeting between these two programs this century. The Ducks have recorded seven sacks in their first two Big Ten games, while Ohio State's offensive line has shown some vulnerabilities. The Ducks have the 19th-ranked passing offense in the country, featuring skilled receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, presenting a formidable test for Ohio State's defensive backs. Will Howard is an experienced quarterback who has thrown one interception in three straight games against weaker pass defenses. Oregon is 34-1 straight up in their last 35 home games. Take the points!

3*Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have been averaging 35 points per game this season, while Miami (OH) has struggled offensively, only managing to average 12 points per game in their first four contests. Toledo allows 4.8 yards per play, while the Red Hawks allow 5.8 yards per play. With two weeks to prepare, Toledo will enter the game seeking revenge for last year's loss. We note that Toledo outgained Miami, OH, 370-306. With home-field advantage, I make Toledo close to an eight-point favorite.

3*Virginia -1

Last week, Boston College had an emotional 21-20 come-from-behind win over Western Kentucky, scoring two touchdowns in the final quarter. Despite being out-gained in each of their previous three games (1,163-869), they managed to win their last two. Boston College has a -0.3 net yards per play, while Virginia has a +0.1 this season. Virginia, who has had two weeks to prepare, will be playing with revenge from last year’s 27-24 setback after botching a 14-point lead. This will be the Eagles’ sixth game in 33 days. Tough. I like the Cavaliers in this spot.

3*Alabama +2.5

It's possible that the Georgia Bulldogs were looking ahead to this game after narrowly defeating Kentucky last week. Kalen DeBoer and his team should be fired up to snap Georgia's 42-game regular-season winning streak. The Crimson Tide has a much superior third-down offense and third-down defense. The Bulldogs have a -38.5 against-the-spread margin in their last two road games. DeBoer has gone 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. Hard to ignore. I have this game power-rated with Alabama at -1.7, so getting 2.5 points seems like the sharp side.

4*Oklahoma U +7 (+100)

The Oklahoma Sooners have played a more demanding schedule (No. 29 vs. No. 45) and will be getting key players back from injury. Josh Heupel's offense hasn't traveled well. In 2022, they averaged 20 points per game less on the road than at home; last year, they averaged nine points less. The Volunteers are massively over-rated in this spot. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is set to make his first career road start after three comfortable home victories, including last week's 71-0 win against Kent State. I made this spread at 4.5, so we are getting great value.

5*James Madison +10.5

These teams have played a soft schedule, with the home team playing the more difficult slate, but not by a considerable margin. The Dukes own a +2.7 net yards per play, while the Tar Heels are +0.2 this season. James Madison is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread, with two weeks to prepare over the last three seasons. They are pumped up to play a Power Four school, and I love head coach Bob Chesney's motivational skills. North Carolina plans to use both quarterbacks, which may challenge either player to find a rhythm. The Tar Heels kick off their ACC slate against in-state rival Duke next week. I made this line 8.3, so getting 10.5 points screams value.

5*South Carolina +7

The Gamecocks boast one of the most formidable defensive lines in the SEC, with freshman Dylan Stewart leading the charge. They lead the conference in sacks after two games, which will create a lot of havoc on LSU's quarterback. The Gamecocks have a 2-0 record and are coming off an impressive 31-6 win over Kentucky. The Tigers have looked vulnerable, as they suffered a loss to USC and faced difficulties against FCS Nicholls State. Their pass defense success rate is currently ranked 105th nationally at 66%. After playing their starters for an extended period against Nicholls State, the Tigers are dealing with injuries and feeling the effects of the shortened week. This will be LSU's third game in 13 days.

4*Sam Houston Bearkats +22.5

An important aspect of this game that is being overlooked is that the current defensive coordinator for the Bearkats, Skyler Cassidy, was Gus Malzahn’s defensive coordinator at Auburn. UCF runs the same offense, so Cassidy will be familiar with their scheme. Both teams prefer to run the ball, leading to a slower-paced game. The Knights will face TCU next week for their Big 12 opener. Gus Malzahn has a 1-5 ATS record after the Knights score 50 or more points.

4*Texas A&M Aggies -2.5

If you combine returning production and the transfer portal rankings, Texas A&M is 42nd while Notre Dame ranks 96th. The Fighting Irish have Riley Leonard at quarterback, who transferred from Duke. His last game was October 28th after suffering a season-ending injury. Leonard has a completion percentage of 67.8% in home games compared to 53.3% on the road in three seasons. College Station is a challenging venue, with a home-field advantage of 3.5 points. The Aggies welcome first-year head coach Mike Elko, who coached Leonard during his time with the Blue Devils. Texas A&M's defensive line is ranked as one of the best. The Fighting Irish lost standout tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL and Charles Jagusah to a season-ending injury.

4*Missouri (+100)

It has been reported that some of the key starters of the Ohio State Buckeyes will not be playing in the upcoming bowl game. Moreover, the players who are playing don't seem to be enthusiastic about it. On the other hand, Missouri is highly motivated to defeat a Big Ten program in a bowl game. They lost the Gasparilla Bowl last year and are determined to show out. The team has improved significantly since last year and is expected to put up a great fight. This line should close much higher!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

Texas A&M will be without 11 players due to injuries, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is out, and former Duke head coach Mike Elko will take over starting next season. The Aggies went 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread vs fellow bowl teams, while the Cowboys went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS this season. Texas A&M went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. winning teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon II (Doak Walker award winner) should have a field day against a defense missing several key starters. I love Mike Gundy in games when his team is an underdog (11-6 ATS in the last three seasons).

4*Northern Illinois +1

Northern Illinois has dropped seven straight bowl games and should be super motivated to win this game. Arkansas State played a slightly tougher schedule, but ignoring these stats is hard. The Red Wolves own a minus- 3.4 point differential and minus- 70-yard differential per game, while the Huskies are plus- 4.1 and- plus- 48, respectively. Arkansas State went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS while getting outgained (-155 YPG) in seven of the eight games against fellow bowl teams. Northern Illinois went 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS while outgaining (+7) three of four matchups. Arkansas State is ranked 127th (dead last), while Northern Illinois is ranked 23rd in total defense of all the bowl teams. Defense travels well. I love the underdog!

3*Miami (OH) +6.5

The Miami Red Hawks have a good chance of covering the point spread with their superior defense and special teams. They have one of the best kickers in the country, Graham Nicholson, who was named first-team All-MAC. A significant factor to consider is the weather forecast, which shows a 100% chance of rain (over 1 inch) and winds of 15-35 MPH. This weather condition will negatively affect App State's passing attack and positively impact the Red Hawks running game. Miami (OH) ranks 36th against the run, while App State ranks 110th in rushing yards allowed. It is worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS last four Cure Bowls, and Miami (OH) has a 6-1 ATS record in all bowl games since 1993. 

5*Alabama +6

Although the Georgia Bulldogs have a better offense and defense, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a great chance to keep this within the number. Alabama has faced more formidable teams, and a win in this game is crucial for them to make the playoff bracket. My model shows that the Bulldogs will win by five points, so I am happy to take the extra point and bet on Alabama with the 6-point spread.

10*Jacksonville State -2

The New Mexico State Aggies pulled off a major upset by defeating the Auburn Tigers as 24.5-point road underdogs last week. Win or lose, they have already qualified for the Conference USA Championship game next week. As a result, they may decide to rest some of their key players. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have a solid rushing attack, averaging 249 yards per game. They will be going against a team that ranks 99th in success rate against the run. The Gamecocks have a strong defense, ranked 18th in yards per play against (4.7), while New Mexico State is ranked 74th (5.6). This game is crucial for Jacksonville State as they are not eligible to play in the postseason, making this their de facto bowl game.

4*TCU +10.5

The Horned Frogs feel very proud after their appearance in last year's championship game. They must pull off an upset against the Sooners to qualify for a bowl game. TCU has a positive yard differential and a solid special teams unit. Oklahoma has played a slightly more demanding schedule and is dealing with some injuries ahead of this game. Grab the points!

4*Oregon State -2

Last year's game between Oregon State and Washington was intense. Oregon State initially took the lead, but Washington made a comeback and won the game with a field goal in the last eight seconds. QB Michael Penix Jr. had to complete 52 passes to accumulate 298 yards due to Oregon State's defense. Washington's defense is struggling, ranking 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. In contrast, Oregon State is a top-20 scoring offense and ranks 16th in yards per play. QB DJ Uiagalelei brings big-game experience from his time at Clemson. Rain is expected during the game, which should benefit the Beavers, who own the better offensive and defensive lines. I like the home team!

5*Wake Forrest +2.5

Last week, NC State clinched bowl eligibility against Miami, even though they were outgained for the second straight game after upsetting Clemson. Wake Forest and NC State recently played at Duke, and the turnover margin was neutral in both matchups. Wake Forest lost by only three points despite outgaining the Blue Devils 400-267. On the other hand, the Wolfpack lost by 21 points despite outgaining Duke just 305-301. Wake Forest has won four out of six games this season on turf, while NC State will be playing its first game on turf in 2023. The Wolfpack are 3-10 against the spread on the road, including 0-3 this season. Wake Forest has won and covered their last home game in three straight seasons. 

4*Kansas State +4

Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy made his first career start in place of the injured Quinn Ewers and passed for 170 yards and two touchdowns in defeating BYU 35-6. However, Murphy also had one interception and lost a fumble. He now takes a significant step up in class as Kansas State is one of six Power Five teams that rank in the top 15 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Currently, the Wildcats are ranked 13th in scoring (37.4) and 14th in points allowed (15.9) as they look to snap a six-game losing skid in this series. Kansas State is ranked ninth (55%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas is ranked 83rd (40%). An outright upset wouldn’t shock me. Grab the points!

4*Cincinnati U +7.5

Despite only two wins, the Cincinnati Bearcats have outperformed Oklahoma State in offense and defense. They have an average of 445 yards compared to Oklahoma State's 405 yards in offense and 345 yards versus Oklahoma State's 404 yards in defense. Oklahoma State has won three consecutive games as underdogs, but will dress up as the favorite in their homecoming game. However, the Cowboys have a crucial game against Oklahoma next week, which could affect their performance. This presents an excellent opportunity for the visiting team to end their losing streak against the spread. I like the road dog!

10*Minnesota U +4.5

Iowa has won their last three games and scored 61 points while allowing only 36 points. However, they were outgained in all three games by 1,016 to 750, which is a cause for concern. This will be their eighth consecutive game without rest, and they might already be thinking about their upcoming BYE week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is seeking revenge after their 52-10 loss and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite being outgained 399-280. I am all over the road dog, especially with such a low total.

3*Auburn +11.5

In last year's game, Auburn had a 17-0 lead, but they allowed a fumble return touchdown and lost to LSU 21-17 despite outgaining them 438-270. LSU is a tired team, having played their seventh straight contest and fourth consecutive game against an SEC foe. The last three games were high-scoring close affairs. Auburn is fresh off a bye and confident after a close loss to Georgia two weeks ago. Although Auburn has struggled to pass the ball, LSU's young secondary has allowed an average of 283 passing yards per game. Revenge cover!

5*Oklahoma +6.5

The line should be a tad under five points, and I must trust my numbers. It's worth noting that although Texas defeated Alabama as 7-point road underdogs, the Crimson Tide had significant quarterback issues at the time. The Sooners will be highly motivated after losing 49-0 last year, especially since their QB Dillon Gabriel missed that game. Texas has a poor record of 1-7 against the spread before their BYE week of late. It's going to be a close match, so grab the points!

5*Georgia State  PK

Georgia State has been performing well this season with a net yards per play of +1.0, while Troy has a -0.1 mark. Georgia State has won and covered against three FBS foes. On the other hand, the Trojans rank No. 130 in Red Zone defense and No. 126 in turnover margin. In comparison, Georgia State averages 37 points per game and has the nation's No. 5 squad in Red Zone defense. Moreover, Troy will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which could put them at a disadvantage. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Coastal Carolina +6.5

Coastal Carolina has a significant rest advantage in this matchup. However, they are coming off a disappointing 30-17 loss despite outgaining GA State by 14 yards and being 5-point favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which is not an ideal schedule. Grayson McCall is a phenomenal QB who can put up points against any defense. The line between the two teams is inflated, as they have similar playing styles. I like the road dog in what should be a tight game.

5*Clemson +2.5

In their previous game, FSU lost the time of possession battle, as their defense was on the field for 75 plays. This week, the Seminoles will be playing their second consecutive road game. The Eagles could have won despite committing 18 penalties for 131 yards. Clemson's coaching staff still remembers how FSU avoided playing them in the 2020 season. The summer line was Clemson -4 points, and we are getting good value on the home team with the better defense.

4*Northern Illinois +11.5

Nebraska is back home after a demanding game at high altitude. When the total is relatively low, it's a wise choice to bet on double-digit underdogs. The Huskies have a good track record of 12-6 against the spread as an underdog and 9-4 ATS on the road over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Cornhuskers have just a 4-8 ATS record when favored over the same period. According to my model, this line should be closer to 9 points. I like the Huskies to stay within the number!

4*Mississippi State +10

This will be the Tigers’ third game in 13 days, and temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. LSU lost more players (10) to the NFL than any other team in the nation. Last year, Mississippi State allowed 21 unanswered points against LSU after leading 16-10 to begin the fourth quarter. The Rebels were 3-point road dogs and now get to play in Starkville, where they have a solid home-field advantage. LSU is 1-4 against-the-spread in their last five games as road chalk. I like the home dog!

4*California +6.5

The Bears have improved significantly, with 16 returning starters compared to Auburn's 12. Head Coach Justin Wilcox has a career ATS record of 36-24-1 with California. Additionally, the Bears have a good record as underdogs at 8-4 ATS and have gone 6-3 ATS in September over the past three seasons. In contrast, Auburn has struggled in September with a 3-6 ATS record over the same period. Based on my Power Ratings, this spread should be closer to 4.5 points. Furthermore, Auburn will play with a body clock time of 10:30 ET. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Duke +13.5

Brad Powers states Duke Blue Devils are ranked 11th while Clemson is ranked 53rd. This ranking is based on Bill Conelly's returning production and experience chart from Phil Steele. Both teams have dual-threat QBs; Duke's Riley Leonard had a QBR of 73.7 on 391 passing attempts, while Cade Klubnik had a 57.1 QBR on just 100 pass attempts last season. Mike Elko improved Duke from a 3-win to a 9-win team, winning the Military Bowl 30-13 over UCF. Duke has a 10-3 ATS record at home over the past three years, while the Tigers are 1-7 ATS in September over the last three seasons. This is the first matchup between these two schools since 2018, and I'm on the home dog.

4*Toledo +9.5

The Rockets, led by head coach Jason Candle, are a strong contender to win the MAC. With 16 returning starters from their nine-win season and victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, Toledo is ranked 14th in the nation for Returning production. Their secondary is one of the best in the Group of Five. Quarterback Dequan Finn, who had a successful campaign in 2022 as a passer and runner, is returning. Illinois has lost significant production and will have to start sophomore QB Luke Altmyer, who had a low QBR of 50.7 on only 54 attempts. Additionally, Altmyer rushed for only three yards on 25 carries. This is an excellent spot to back the road dog!

3*Hawaii +17.5

The Warriors seek 53-point revenge from last season's second half meltdown. The Run and Shoot is fully installed, with head coach Timmy Chang calling the plays and QB Braden Schrager better suited within it. Hawaii went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Vanderbilt's stadium has undergone renovations and now has a capacity of 28,500, down from 40,000+. They possess one of the worst home-field advantages (1.75) and only won five games last year, with a luck ranking of No. 11 in the nation. The Commodores rank last in SEC recruiting for the fourth time in five years and are only 3-10 ATS as home favorites over the past three seasons. Vanderbilt will miss their most promising offensive lineman due to an injury sustained in the off-season. I like the road dog in this spot!

10*Penn State +2.5

Penn State dropped their Bowl game last season, 24-10 against Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. The Razorbacks ran for 361 yards on 58 carries. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 12 against the run, which should bode well against the Utes' offense. Utah standout CB Clark Phillips lll has decided to skip this Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft process. Penn State owns the better defensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 58), special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 64) and overall defense (No. 5 vs. No. 17) at Football Outsiders. Utah went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS when the line was 7 or less this season. Penn State is 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on a grass field, while Utah is just 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on that same surface. Penn State has played a tougher schedule (No. 10 vs. No. 21) and own better metrics against fellow bowlers, especially on defense. Take the underdog!

4*Coastal Carolina +8.5

Coastal Carolina owns the better offensive line (No. 87 vs. No. 102) and defensive line (No. 19 vs. No. 37 at Football Outsiders. Star QB Grayson McCall will start for the Chanticleers who is the only player to earn Sun Belt conference player of the year three times. He's heading for the transfer portal after this game. Coastal Carolina owns better metrics against fellow bowlers. The Chanticleers are 9-3 SU on field turf, while East Carolina is 0-2 SU this season. Take the points in what should be a one-score game!

4*Air Force +4

The Falcons own the better offensive line (No. 5 vs. No. 44), defensive line (No. 20 vs. No. 100) and special teams (No. 57 vs. No. 115) at Football Outsiders. It's going to be very windy (20-30 MPH) and this benefits the Falcons' run-heavy attack. Air Force owns the No. 1 defense in yards allowed and No. 2 defense in points allowed. Take the Falcons plus the points!

4*Liberty +5

The Flames should be super focused after dropping their last three games by a combined -87.5 ATS margin. Liberty owns the better offensive line (No. 70 vs. No. 73), defensive line (No. 10 vs. No. 24), special teams (No. 37 vs. No. 120), and total defense (No. 44 vs. No. 61) at Football Outsiders. Liberty has superior metrics against fellow bowlers, and the Flames' defense leads the nation in tackles for a loss (109). Liberty is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as underdogs, while the Rockets are 2-7 ATS vs. winning teams of late. Take Liberty plus the generous five points!

5*Eastern Michigan +4.5

The Eagles get to practice on the same exact surface (field turf) and in extreme cold weather. San Jose has no such advantage. Eastern Michigan defeated San Jose State 30-27 as 17-point underdogs in the California Bowl in 1987 for its lone bowl victory. I love playing on teams that lost their bowl game by 30+ in the previous year. Both teams played Western Michigan and won with very similar stats. The Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS on field turf, while the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries. Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS as an underdog, while San Jose State is 3-6 ATS as chalk. The Eagles are 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing on Tuesday, while the Spartans have never played on that day of the week. Eastern Michigan is ranked No. 25 in special teams, while San Jose State is ranked dead last (131) at Football Outsiders. Take the points before it drops!

10*Duke Blue Devils +3.5

Wake Forest has punished Duke the last three seasons by a combined score of 143-41. This spread is the lowest since 2015, when Duke was 3.5-point road favorites and won 27-21. First-year head coach Mike Elko was the defensive coordinator at Wake Forrest from 2014-2016. Duke owns the better offensive line (No. 15 vs. No. 80) and special teams (No. 30 vs. No. 82) at Football Outsiders. The Blue Devils own the better yards against, net yards per play, and scoring defense. Duke also owns the better metrics against common opponents (ACC foes) this season. Wake Forrest is just 1-1 straight-up and 1-1 against-the-spread on a grass field this season. Duke is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS on the same surface this season. The Demon Deacons accumulated 543 total yards last week and now hit the road against a highly motivated squad. Play Duke plus the points!

5*Baylor +2.5

TCU is coming off two straight interstate rival wins and the pressure is mounting to stay undefeated. Baylor was clearly looking ahead to this match-up after scoring just 3 points at home last week. Baylor is 11-4 against-the-spread as underdogs in their last 15 games and 13-5 ATS vs. winning teams the past three seasons. The Bears are undervalued in this spot so lets take the points!

5*Wake Forrest -3.5

Wake Forrest owns the better defensive line (No. 50 vs. No. 123) and overall defense (No. 50 vs. No. 118) at Football Outsiders. The Demon Deacons have revenge on their minds after blowing a big lead last season (58-55), despite out-gaining the Tar Heels 615-546. Wake Forrest is ranked 17 spots higher in DVOA and 16 spots higher in strength of schedule. North Carolina will be playing its third set of back-to-back road games. The Tar Heels are 3-12 against-the-spread off a win vs. a conference rival of late. Wake Forrest is 13-2 straight-up and 12-3 ATS at home over the past three seasons. Take the hungry host!

5*Georgia Southern +4

South Alabama will be playing its fourth game in 21 days. That seems like a tough spot considering Georgia Southern has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Eagles own the better offensive line (No. 83 vs. No. 101). They are 11-3 against-the-spread vs. winning teams over the past three seasons. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and 1-4 ATS as road chalk. Take the home team plus the points!

4*Baylor +2.5

Baylor owns the better offensive line (No. 26 vs. No. 92) and defensive line (No. 24 vs. No. 35) at Football Outsiders. The Bears own a +1.3 net yards per play differential, while Texas Tech is +0.5 this season. Baylor is ranked No. 66 (45.1%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas Tech is ranked No. 182 (36.2%). The Red Raiders are 0-6 straight-up off a win vs. a conference rival and 0-5-1 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points. Baylor is 9-4 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. Texas Tech has a big revenge game @ TCU next week. Take the road dog!

4*Kentucky +12.5

Kentucky has the better special teams (No. 11 vs. No. 43) and overall defense (No. 14 vs. 42) at Football Outsiders. The Wildcats have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, Tennessee defeated Kentucky 45-42 despite getting out-gained 612-461. The Vols are 8-17 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points of late. They also have a big game against Georgia next week. Take the road team plus the points!

4*UTEP +4.5

UTEP owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams at Football Outsiders. The Miners have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, FAU defeated UTEP 28-25, despite getting out-gained 438-280. UTEP is 6-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week and 7-2 ATS vs. losing teams of late. FAU is 2-9 straight-up and 3-8 ATS in games played on turf, including 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the hungry host!

5*Wisconsin -2

This will be the Boilermakers third road game in four weeks. They accumulated over 600 total yards in last week's victory. Teams in this role have been a great play to fade in their next game. Wisconsin brings in the better net yards per play (+0.5 vs. -0.4), better offensive line, (No. 67 vs. No. 97) and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Purdue is 3-8 against-the-spread vs. losing teams of late. Take the home team to get back to .500 before their BYE week.

5*Oklahoma State +4

Money is coming in on TCU based on last year's blowout loss to these Cowboys. I don't think anything has changed. Oklahoma State should be able to pile up yards on the ground. TCU is ranked No. 71 in defensive line DVOA, while the Cowboys are ranked No. 4 this season. The Cowboys are ranked 18 spots higher in overall defense and will gladly take four points in this spot.

5*Miami U -3.5

The Hurricanes have two weeks to prepare after their embarrassing loss vs. Middle Tenn State as 26-point home chalk. Mario Cristobal is 6-2 against-the-spread when playing with extra rest since 2018. Miami's offensive line ranked No. 38, while North Carolina is ranked No. 90 at Football Outsiders. The Hurricanes' defensive line is ranked No. 33, while the Tar Heels are ranked No. 119 this season. North Carolina defeated Miami 45-42, despite getting out-gained 421-382 last year. The Tar Heels benefited from a +2 turnover differential. This will be the highest humidity game for the road team so far this season. North Carolina is 3-8 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival since 2019. Take the hungry host!

4*Iowa State -3

Kansas is 4-0 straight-up & 4-0 against-the-spread, despite getting out-gained in two of those games. Iowa State has the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense according to every metric. The Jayhawks have played a much easier schedule so far. Kansas is 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning teams of late. The Cyclones are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I like the road team in this spot!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

The Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 as 7-point road underdogs last season. The Cowboys out-gained Baylor 333-242. Both teams have a Top 2 offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. The Cowboys are 21-6-1 ATS vs. winning teams. I see value on the road team!

5*Arkansas +2

Texas A&M made a QB switch and escaped with a victory against Miami, despite getting out-gained by 128 yards. That loss to Appalachian State is a red flag. The Razorbacks have a really good pass rush and now will face an inexperienced QB at a neutral site. We get the better QB (dual threat), offensive line, and red-zone efficiency as an underdog. Arkansas has out-gained all three foes by 113 yards to start the season. The Razorbacks out-gained the Aggies 448-272 in their 20-10 win last season. Don't worry that Arkansas plays Alabama next week. In a similar spot last year, Arkansas defeated LSU before playing the Crimson Tide. Arkansas has a lot more experience playing on field turf. The Razorbacks are 8-5 straight-up, while Texas A&M is just 1-1 SU over the past three seasons. Larger sample size shows Texas A&M just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. Take the dog!

4*Fresno State +12.5

This will be the best offense that USC has played so far this season. The over/under tells the entire story. Points will be scored by both teams. The Trojans don't have a shut-down defense and the back door will always be open (if needed). USC has a big revenge game on deck against Pac-12 rival Oregon State. The Bulldogs should be all in knowing they have a BYE next week. Fresno State is 9-2 ATS as a road dog, while USC is 3-8 ATS as home chalk of late. The Trojans are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 40+ points. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. The road dog checks all the boxes!  

5*Georgia State +7.5

North Carolina defeated Appalachian State 63-61, despite getting out-gained by 82 yards last week. Georgia state has the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams. North Carolina is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS when playing back-to-back road games of late. The Panthers are 14-6 ATS playing on turf, while the Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS on that same surface over the past three years. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS after a loss of 20+ points. Take the hungry host!

5*Boise State +2.5

The Broncos return 17 starters from a squad that went 7-5, while defeating two ranked teams last season. Boise State out-scored their opponents by 10 points per game. I see more improvements in year two under Andy Avalos. The Beavers should get better as the season plays out. Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 0-4 straight-up and 0-4 against-the-spread in openers. Boise State is 32-16 ATS as an underdog since 1993. Take the road dog!

5*San Diego State -6

The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 as 1-point road dogs last season. San Diego State out-gained Arizona 454-230. Arizona has a long way to go after winning just one game last season. The Wildcats' offensive line is ranked No. 12 in the Pac 12, and their defensive line is ranked No. 10. The Aztecs' offensive line is ranked No. 2 in the Mountain West, and their defensive line is ranked No. 1 heading into this opener. The Aztecs will be debuting in a brand new home stadium. The new grass field should benefit San Diego State. The Aztecs are 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread on a grass field. Arizona plays mostly on field turf. They are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS playing on a grass field over the past three years. Take the home team!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!

4*North Carolina +4

The Fighting Irish have played the tougher schedule which I respect a great deal. North Carolina has a +1.2 net yards per play differential, while Notre Dame has a -0.1 net yards per play differential this season. That's a massive difference especially in this spot. The big advantage for the Tar Heels is on the offensive line. North Carolina is ranked No. 19, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 97 at Football Outsiders. North Carolina has revenge from last year's loss and two weeks to prepare. ND defeated USC last week despite getting outgained 424-383. Red flag. The Fighting Irish are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS after playing the Trojans of late. I will side the with Tar Heels plus the points in this one! 

5*Minnesota -5

Last year, the Golden Gophers blew a 17-point lead at the end of the third quarter. Maryland won 45-44 as 17.5-point home underdogs. Maryland celebrated on the field without any fans. Minnesota was not happy and have circled this game. The Terrapins will be without both starting wide receivers from last year. Jeshaun Jones and Dontay Demus Jr. each had 100+ receiving yards and one TD. Not in this game. Maryland is also without their best linebacker. Minnesota has a solid backup RB to replace Potts who is out of the year.

All the advanced metrics point to the home team covering easily. Maryland is ranked No. 81 in total offense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 46 at Football Outsiders. Maryland is ranked No. 95 in total defense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 40 this season. Maryland is ranked No. 115 in special teams, while the Golden Gophers are ranked No. 43 this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 39 overall, while Maryland is ranked No. 91 this season. Minnesota has played the 26th-toughest schedule. Maryland has played the 48th-toughest. Maryland is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State of late. Maryland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. winning teams over the past eight tilts. Lets take the home team in this one!

4*Oklahoma State +5.5

Seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Texas defeated OK State 41-34 as 3.5 road underdogs, despite getting outgained 530-287 last season. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. That loss was followed by four more setbacks as the Cowboys' 2020 season spun out of control. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as underdogs. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one!

4*Utah +3

Utah is allowing 4.1 yards per play while USC is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Utah will be playing this revenge game with two weeks to prepare. Utah is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS after their BYE week of late. Utah is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against the Pac-12 over the past three seasons. Utah is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. USC is just 5-8 ATS in that same role. Bottom line is we're getting 3 points with the better offensive line and better overall defense. Sign me up!

4*Arizona State +3.5

UCLA defeated the Sun Devils 25-18 last season despite getting outgained 442-363. Arizona State has the pieces to win this game outright. The Sun Devils are allowing 4.1 yards per play while UCLA is allowing 5.3 this season. DTR doesn't look 100% healthy to me. Fresno State is built very similar to Arizona State and the Bulldogs beat UCLA outright as 11-point dogs. The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in special teams. Love the coach (Herm Edwards) in revenge games. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Take the road dog!

5*Baylor Bears +7

Both teams step up in class this afternoon. I believe Baylor is underrated while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home dogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in their past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points. Try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Fresno State +11

The Bulldogs have a big athletic offensive line and their defense can matchup with good teams in the PAC 12. Fresno State (+19.5) played Oregon down to the wire after the first quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained the Ducks 373-358 in a 7-point road loss. Jake Haener is completing 72.5% of his passes with a QBR of 72.5 for Fresno State. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 52.8% of his throws with a QBR of 66.6 this season. UCLA has their PAC-12 opener at Stanford next week and is coming off a BYE week. Undefeated teams are usually rusty when their BYE week occurs in September. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Memphis +3.5

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, trying to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the special teams advantage. The Bulldogs punter (T. Day) is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom third. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. More of the same in this one! 

5*Arkansas +7

Texas was very impressive in their home opener beating a really solid UL Lafayette team. Arkansas started very slow before imposing their will in the second half against Rice. The Razorbacks were looking ahead to this game. Texas is coming off an emotional win in Steve Sarkisian's debut. This is one of the biggest home games in recent memory for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS vs. the Big 12 since 1993. Line seems 1.5 points too high, so lets take the home dog in this one!

4*Texas San Antonio +5.5

Illinois is coming off a big upset win despite getting out-gained 392-326 last week. Texas State went 7-5 SU under first-year head coach Jeff Traylor, scoring 28.2 points per game (67th of 128) while allowing 25.7 (41 of 128). The Roadrunners are one of the most deepest teams with a plethora of returning talent. Illinois is 3-13 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the road dog!

4*West Virginia -3

Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in returning production. Maryland played just five games last season going 2-3. They need time to evolve. The Terrapins are running a new offense and defensive with two brand new coordinators installing new systems. I will look to back Maryland later in the season. West Virginia is ready to roll in this game. Take the road team!  

5*NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have a lot of seniors and this team is very excited for this opportunity. NC State owns the better stats, and they are ranked much higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. In fact, the Wildcats are allowing more yards than they gain. Red flag. Kentucky's four wins have come against teams that are a combined 8-31. NC State is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on grass fields while Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on that same surface this season. The Wolfpack have significant edges in the kicking game and red zone efficiency. Take the points in this upset maker!

5*Army +7.5

The Black Knights are seeking their third straight 10-win season in the Liberty Bowl. Army's offensive line is ranked 52nd while West Virginia's O'line is ranked 113th at Football Outsiders. On defense, Army is ranked 2nd overall. They also own the fifth-best defensive line in all of College Football. That's a great combo to have in a bowl game. There is a 75% chance for moderate to heavy rain which favors the team that runs the ball at a high level. West Virginia is ranked 120th in penalties (8.4 per game) while Army is ranked 24th (4.8) this season. The Mountaineers are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Army is a nifty 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in all bowl games. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Oklahoma +3

The Sooners have a Top 10 defensive line and the better overall defense. This line is too high. Oklahoma's passer rating against is ranked 20th while the Gators' passer rating against is ranked 93rd. This has been a strong angle in these Power 5 bowl games of late. Florida will be without All-American TE Kyle Pitts and his 700+ yards receiving with 12 TD's. There is also a lot of chatter that more Gators will be skipping this game. The Sooners lost their Bowl game 63-28 to LSU last season. Look for them to be pumped-up in what should amount to a home game. Take Oklahoma +3 and try a slice on the money line. (+150)  

4*Oregon +3.5

USC is coming off an emotional comeback victory against cross-town rival UCLA. The Trojans were outgained by 105 yards. I love playing on College football underdogs with the significantly better offensive line. Oregon's offensive line is ranked 31 while USC is ranked 105 by Football Outsiders. Oregon is averaging 7.3 yards per play while USC is averaging 5.8 this season. On defense, the Ducks are allowing 5.7 yards per play while USC allows 5.8. That means Oregon has a +1.6 yards per play while USC is even. The Trojans are likely to be without their top running back (knee injury) and they have trouble gaining yards on the ground to begin with. The Ducks are 5-0 SU after a BYE week over the past three seasons. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

5*Arkansas +3.5

Arkansas has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after dropping a 10-point decision last season. This year, the Razorbacks have a real QB. Feleipe Franks is completing 68% of his passes with a 17-4 TD to interception ratio. Missouri is coming off a 41-0 shellacking against Vanderbilt. The Tigers committed just 1 penalty for the entire game. That won't happen again. Missouri is 4-5 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins since 2018. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS L4 off a loss against a conference rival. Missouri is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in December games since 1993. Arkansas has the better offensive line ranking #69 while the Tigers are ranked #105 at Football Outsiders. Arkansas has a +0.6 yard differential while Missouri is just +0.1. Overall, the Razorbacks are ranked 48th while Missouri is ranked 67th at FO. This will be the Razorbacks last regular season game of the year while Missouri plays Vanderbilt again next week. Take the road dog!

4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host!