4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!

4*North Carolina +4

The Fighting Irish have played the tougher schedule which I respect a great deal. North Carolina has a +1.2 net yards per play differential, while Notre Dame has a -0.1 net yards per play differential this season. That's a massive difference especially in this spot. The big advantage for the Tar Heels is on the offensive line. North Carolina is ranked No. 19, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 97 at Football Outsiders. North Carolina has revenge from last year's loss and two weeks to prepare. ND defeated USC last week despite getting outgained 424-383. Red flag. The Fighting Irish are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS after playing the Trojans of late. I will side the with Tar Heels plus the points in this one! 

5*Minnesota -5

Last year, the Golden Gophers blew a 17-point lead at the end of the third quarter. Maryland won 45-44 as 17.5-point home underdogs. Maryland celebrated on the field without any fans. Minnesota was not happy and have circled this game. The Terrapins will be without both starting wide receivers from last year. Jeshaun Jones and Dontay Demus Jr. each had 100+ receiving yards and one TD. Not in this game. Maryland is also without their best linebacker. Minnesota has a solid backup RB to replace Potts who is out of the year.

All the advanced metrics point to the home team covering easily. Maryland is ranked No. 81 in total offense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 46 at Football Outsiders. Maryland is ranked No. 95 in total defense, while Minnesota is ranked No. 40 this season. Maryland is ranked No. 115 in special teams, while the Golden Gophers are ranked No. 43 this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 39 overall, while Maryland is ranked No. 91 this season. Minnesota has played the 26th-toughest schedule. Maryland has played the 48th-toughest. Maryland is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS after playing Ohio State of late. Maryland is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS vs. winning teams over the past eight tilts. Lets take the home team in this one!

4*Oklahoma State +5.5

Seems like a game that the Cowboys have circled on their schedule. Texas defeated OK State 41-34 as 3.5 road underdogs, despite getting outgained 530-287 last season. Oklahoma State had a -4 turnover differential. That loss was followed by four more setbacks as the Cowboys' 2020 season spun out of control. Texas is coming off a disappointing loss against Oklahoma while the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games as underdogs. I'll take the points with the better defense in this one!

4*Utah +3

Utah is allowing 4.1 yards per play while USC is allowing 5.8 yards per play this season. Utah will be playing this revenge game with two weeks to prepare. Utah is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS after their BYE week of late. Utah is 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS against the Pac-12 over the past three seasons. Utah is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival. USC is just 5-8 ATS in that same role. Bottom line is we're getting 3 points with the better offensive line and better overall defense. Sign me up!

4*Arizona State +3.5

UCLA defeated the Sun Devils 25-18 last season despite getting outgained 442-363. Arizona State has the pieces to win this game outright. The Sun Devils are allowing 4.1 yards per play while UCLA is allowing 5.3 this season. DTR doesn't look 100% healthy to me. Fresno State is built very similar to Arizona State and the Bulldogs beat UCLA outright as 11-point dogs. The Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in special teams. Love the coach (Herm Edwards) in revenge games. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. Take the road dog!

5*Baylor Bears +7

Both teams step up in class this afternoon. I believe Baylor is underrated while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home dogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in their past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points. Try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Fresno State +11

The Bulldogs have a big athletic offensive line and their defense can matchup with good teams in the PAC 12. Fresno State (+19.5) played Oregon down to the wire after the first quarter. The Bulldogs out-gained the Ducks 373-358 in a 7-point road loss. Jake Haener is completing 72.5% of his passes with a QBR of 72.5 for Fresno State. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 52.8% of his throws with a QBR of 66.6 this season. UCLA has their PAC-12 opener at Stanford next week and is coming off a BYE week. Undefeated teams are usually rusty when their BYE week occurs in September. Take the road dog in this spot!

5*Memphis +3.5

This will be Mississippi State's first road game of the season, trying to stop the No. 1 offense in the nation. This seems like a flat spot to me. The Bulldogs play LSU at home next week. The Tigers should have the special teams advantage. The Bulldogs punter (T. Day) is averaging 38.5 yards per punt, which ranks in the bottom third. Memphis has a history of upsetting SEC foes at home. More of the same in this one! 

5*Arkansas +7

Texas was very impressive in their home opener beating a really solid UL Lafayette team. Arkansas started very slow before imposing their will in the second half against Rice. The Razorbacks were looking ahead to this game. Texas is coming off an emotional win in Steve Sarkisian's debut. This is one of the biggest home games in recent memory for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS vs. the Big 12 since 1993. Line seems 1.5 points too high, so lets take the home dog in this one!

4*Texas San Antonio +5.5

Illinois is coming off a big upset win despite getting out-gained 392-326 last week. Texas State went 7-5 SU under first-year head coach Jeff Traylor, scoring 28.2 points per game (67th of 128) while allowing 25.7 (41 of 128). The Roadrunners are one of the most deepest teams with a plethora of returning talent. Illinois is 3-13 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. Take the road dog!

4*West Virginia -3

Both teams are ranked in the top 20 in returning production. Maryland played just five games last season going 2-3. They need time to evolve. The Terrapins are running a new offense and defensive with two brand new coordinators installing new systems. I will look to back Maryland later in the season. West Virginia is ready to roll in this game. Take the road team!  

5*NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have a lot of seniors and this team is very excited for this opportunity. NC State owns the better stats, and they are ranked much higher in overall team efficiency at Football Outsiders. In fact, the Wildcats are allowing more yards than they gain. Red flag. Kentucky's four wins have come against teams that are a combined 8-31. NC State is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS on grass fields while Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on that same surface this season. The Wolfpack have significant edges in the kicking game and red zone efficiency. Take the points in this upset maker!

5*Army +7.5

The Black Knights are seeking their third straight 10-win season in the Liberty Bowl. Army's offensive line is ranked 52nd while West Virginia's O'line is ranked 113th at Football Outsiders. On defense, Army is ranked 2nd overall. They also own the fifth-best defensive line in all of College Football. That's a great combo to have in a bowl game. There is a 75% chance for moderate to heavy rain which favors the team that runs the ball at a high level. West Virginia is ranked 120th in penalties (8.4 per game) while Army is ranked 24th (4.8) this season. The Mountaineers are 7-15 SU and 5-17 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Army is a nifty 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in all bowl games. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.

5*Oklahoma +3

The Sooners have a Top 10 defensive line and the better overall defense. This line is too high. Oklahoma's passer rating against is ranked 20th while the Gators' passer rating against is ranked 93rd. This has been a strong angle in these Power 5 bowl games of late. Florida will be without All-American TE Kyle Pitts and his 700+ yards receiving with 12 TD's. There is also a lot of chatter that more Gators will be skipping this game. The Sooners lost their Bowl game 63-28 to LSU last season. Look for them to be pumped-up in what should amount to a home game. Take Oklahoma +3 and try a slice on the money line. (+150)  

4*Oregon +3.5

USC is coming off an emotional comeback victory against cross-town rival UCLA. The Trojans were outgained by 105 yards. I love playing on College football underdogs with the significantly better offensive line. Oregon's offensive line is ranked 31 while USC is ranked 105 by Football Outsiders. Oregon is averaging 7.3 yards per play while USC is averaging 5.8 this season. On defense, the Ducks are allowing 5.7 yards per play while USC allows 5.8. That means Oregon has a +1.6 yards per play while USC is even. The Trojans are likely to be without their top running back (knee injury) and they have trouble gaining yards on the ground to begin with. The Ducks are 5-0 SU after a BYE week over the past three seasons. Take the road dog in this upset maker!

5*Arkansas +3.5

Arkansas has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game after dropping a 10-point decision last season. This year, the Razorbacks have a real QB. Feleipe Franks is completing 68% of his passes with a 17-4 TD to interception ratio. Missouri is coming off a 41-0 shellacking against Vanderbilt. The Tigers committed just 1 penalty for the entire game. That won't happen again. Missouri is 4-5 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins since 2018. Arkansas is 3-1 ATS L4 off a loss against a conference rival. Missouri is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS in December games since 1993. Arkansas has the better offensive line ranking #69 while the Tigers are ranked #105 at Football Outsiders. Arkansas has a +0.6 yard differential while Missouri is just +0.1. Overall, the Razorbacks are ranked 48th while Missouri is ranked 67th at FO. This will be the Razorbacks last regular season game of the year while Missouri plays Vanderbilt again next week. Take the road dog!

4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host! 

10*Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State returns home after a blowout loss in which they scored just two points. It was very misleading as they outgained Kentucky by 138 yards, but committed 6 turnovers. Mississippi State has outgained all three foes by a combined 470 yards this season. Texas A&M is coming off their first home win over a Top 5 ranked team since 2002. The Bulldogs are +1.2 in net yard differential while the Aggies are -0.1. Mississippi State is allowing 4.0 yards per play which ranks 5th in the nation. Texas A&M is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play. Mike Leach called out his team for that sloppy performance last week. The Aggies beat Mississippi State 49-30 last year while outgaining the Bulldogs by just 8 yards. The difference was a -3 turnover ratio for Mississippi State. Texas A&M defeated Vanderbilt by only 5 points as 31-point chalk earlier this season. Take the Bulldogs in this upset maker!

5*Syracuse +2.5

My power rating in this game has the home team as 1-point chalk. I think the Orange have the better offense and defense. Don't forget Syracuse defeated Duke last year by a wide margin as 9-point road underdogs. No revenge here. I think Syracuse is the smart side in this one!

5*Clemson +6.5

This feels like a lot of points to me considering the look ahead line was a near pick em. Also, consider the fact that Clemson has the much better defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play. LSU is allowing 5.1 yards per play. I'll take the generous 6.5 points with a stud QB and tremendous head coach. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six Championship games and this is the longest time between the semi finals and Championship in playoff format history.

10*Tennessee Volunteers -1.5

The Volunteers, who have won five in a row and six of the last seven games, is on a roll heading into the Gator Bowl and should receive a boost from a partisan crowd in Jacksonville. Tennessee's defense allowed no more than 20 points during that five-game winning streak. The Vols (.589) played a much tougher schedule than the Hoosiers (.434) this season. Indiana went 0-4 SU while losing the stats in three of the four games against other bowl teams. They were outgained by an average of -98 yards. Tennessee went 3-5 SU and 4-4 in the stats against fellow bowlers. They were outgained by -34 yards, which is pretty good considering the very tough schedule (10th toughest among bowl teams) they endured. Love the fact that Tennessee has played 10 games on a grass field going 5-5 SU. Indiana has played just 3 games on a grass field going 1-2 SU this season. The Vols' offensive line is ranked 68th while Indiana's O'line is ranked 97th at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 22nd in special teams while the Hoosiers are ranked 41st. Tennessee has a -0.3 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a -1.6 net yards per play differential against other bowl teams. This is a huge edge to the Vols and a system of mine that has worked very well in the past. Finally, Tennessee is 7-2 SU against the Big 10 since 1993. Indiana is 1-6 SU when playing on a neutral field since 1993. Max play on the Vols!

5*Oregon +3

Don't sleep on this Ducks' defense as they held 6 foes to season-low or 2nd-low yards this season. Teams almost played the exact same strength of schedule (Oregon .573 vs Wisconsin .572) this season. Oregon's defensive line is ranked 27th while Wisconsin's defensive line is ranked 48th at Football Outsiders. Special teams edge to the Ducks as they are ranked 17 spots higher (36 vs 53). This will be Justin Herbert's final game before getting drafted this Spring. Love it. I believe this team wants to send him out as a winner. I like the Ducks plus the points in this one!

5*Western Michigan +3.5

The Broncos should be extremely motivated after losing their bowl game last season by 31 points. Western Michigan has a +0.7 net yards per play differential while Western Kentucky has a +0.3 net yards per play differential. Western Michigan lost their last game of the Season by a FG despite outgaining Northern Illinois 348-250. The Broncos are 4-0 ITS (in the stats) while WM went 2-2 ITS down the stretch. I love playing on Bowl underdogs that average 200+ yards rushing & 200+ passing yards. First-year head coaches tend to struggle as a favorite in bowl games. Finally, WK is 4-12 ATS as a favorite in their past 16 games. Take the points with Western Michigan.

5*Iowa -2

The Hawkeyes boast the better offensive and defensive lines. Iowa also owns the much better defense and special teams. I am pleasantly surprised this line is under a FG. Iowa ranks 5th in Red Zone offense and they are ranked 4th in fewest penalty yards. Usc allows more points (30) than they score (28) against other Bowl teams. Red flag. Take Iowa in the Holiday Bowl!

5*Temple Owls +5

North Carolina has played 9 one-possession games this season. The Tar Heels went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. other Bowl teams this season. The Owls are playing in a bowl game for the fifth straight season and are playing in the Military Bowl for the third time overall. They most recently played in the Military Bowl in 2016 when they were upended by Wake Forest, and they also lost to UCLA here in 2009 when it was known as the EagleBank Bowl. The Owls are extremely motivated to get a win for the senior class. Temple went 3-1 SU down the stretch while outgaining all four teams. Temple's only setback was against Cincinnati by 2 points. The Owls are ranked 4th in red zone defense. Temple is ranked 30th in team defense while North Carolina is ranked 61st at Football Outsiders this season. Temple went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after a BYE week while NC went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the points with the much better defense in this one!

10*San Diego State +5.5

This will be first time all season the Cougars play back-to-back road games without a week of rest. They traveled to Umass last week. BYU has already accepted an invitation to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I have to question their motivation. The Aztecs will be motivated as they want 9 wins this season. They are also coming off a tough 3-point setback at Hawaii last week on a game ending miss FG. Rocky Long has SD state playing stifling defense. This unit is ranked 8th in the nation--allowing just 288 yards per game. San Diego State is ranked #2 in defensive line play while BYU is ranked 116th at Football Outsiders. The Aztecs are ranked 23rd in special teams while BYU is ranked 100th. The Cougars have played a very easy schedule and this will be the 2nd best defense BYU has faced. Utah defeated BYU 30-12 in week one (at BYU) who has a similar defense. Carson Baker gets the start at QB for the Aztecs. He's from the area and BYU has no idea what to expect on offense. I'm all over the home underdog in this one. Try a slice on the money line as well (+180).

4*Kansas State +5.5

4*Louisville +3.5

5*Indiana Hoosiers +10

The Hoosiers have an offense that can score on almost any defense. Indiana has a net yards per play differential of +1.3 while Michigan has a +1.7 mark. Michigan has a bigger game against Ohio State next week. I think the Hoosiers are undervalued in this spot. I have this game closer to 7 points. Take the home dog! 

5*Navy +9.5

Navy enters this game with a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Notre Dame has a +1.4 net yards per play differential. Navy has two weeks to prepare and has revenge from last year's setback. Navy is 3-0 ATS when getting less than 10 points against ND. Navy is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1993. Notre Dame is just 3-6 ATS in November the past three years. I think this line should be closer to 7.5 to 8 points. I like the road dog in this one! 

5*Indiana +15.5

Wow, this line is out of whack. The Hoosiers lost 33-28 to Penn State last year as 14-point home underdogs, despite outgaining the Nittany Lions 554-417. Indiana has the offense to score points against anyone. They also have an extra week of rest. Penn State had its dream of making the playoffs crushed with last weak's loss to Minnesota. Tough spot for the home team. Penn State has just an 11% chance of making it to the final four. Penn State has a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a +1.3 net yards per play differential. I don't think the gap between these two teams is 15.5 points. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival while Penn State is 1-4 ATS off a loss against a conference foe. I'm all over the road dog in this spot!

10*Kentucky Wildcats PK

This will be the Volunteers first game on turf this season while playing its 6th straight game without rest. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on turf over the past three seasons. Tennessee has dominated Kentucky (32-2 SU) and the Wildcats will be pumped up at home in prime time. Kentucky has extra prep time knowing they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on turf of late. Actually, the Wildcats are 19-5 SU on turf over the past three seasons. Mark Stoops is a great coach off a BYE as Kentucky already won & covered with two weeks to prepare earlier this season. Kentucky is 14-5 SU at home over the past three years while Tennessee checks in with a 1-9 SU road record of late. The Vols are 4-16 SU against conference foes of late, and they have a huge revenge game (lost 50-17) against Missouri on deck. Tennessee has a -2.2 net yards per play differential on the road while Kentucky has a +0.6 net yards per play differential at home. Last year, Tennessee dealt Kentucky is third and final loss of the season while benefiting from a +3 turnover margin. Finally, the Vols are 0-3 SU after two or more consecutive victories over the past three years. Love Kentucky in this spot!

5*Kansas +6.5

This is a letdown spot for Kansas State coming off its big win against Oklahoma. It was just their fourth victory against a Top 5 team in school history. Kansas State is 1-3 ATS in the very next game. After switching to a new offensive coordinator, the Jayhawks have turned a corner on that side of the ball. Kansas has a +0.3 in net yards per play differential while Kansas State has a -0.9 net yards per play differential this season. Also, the Wildcats have been outgained in five straight games. Finally, Kansas State is ranked 129th in red zone defense. I really like Kansas plus the generous 6.5 points!

5*Oklahoma State -3

The Cowboys committed five turnovers in their 10-point upset loss against Texas Tech two weeks ago. OK State will be playing with rest & revenge from last year's 35-31 loss, despite outgaining Baylor 513-402. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Baylor checks in with a sub-par 5-10 SU record against winning teams over the past three years. I think Oklahoma State will bounce back, considering they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival of late. Baylor will be unbeaten no more. Take the hungry host!

4*Boston College +3.5

This line opened NC State -1 and the public is backing the road team by nearly an 85% clip. Boston College will be without their starting QB (Anthony Brown), but backup Dennis Grosel is more than ready. I like the fact that NC State has never played against Grosel. They don't really know what to expect. Boston College is coming off a BYE and the Wolfpack have two big revenge games on deck. Seems like a flat spot for the road team so I'm taking BC plus the points.

4*Iowa +3.5

Iowa played Michigan tough despite QB Nate Stanley's three interceptions. I love the Hawkeyes to bounce back at home in prime time. Penn State has played a weak schedule and almost lost to Pittsburgh. Iowa has been great as a home underdog, cashing just under 71% over the past decade. In a battle of two top 5 defensive teams, I'll take the Hawkeyes in this spot.

4*Nevada -2

It's been two weeks since Nevada suffered a 51 point home loss to Hawaii. This is a great spot to bounce back. San Jose State has been winning with smoke & mirrors (+9 turnovers) and this will be their third road game in 21 days. Nevada is a stellar 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival while San Jose State is 1-9 SU against winning teams of late. I also like the QB change to Malik Henry. Take the hungry host!

5*Georgia Tech +10.5

This is a great spot for the home team. North Carolina is coming off a very emotional 1-point loss (went for 2-point conversion) against Clemson as nearly a 3 TD underdog. In fact, the Tarheels have played five straight one possession games. Ga Tech is coming off a misleading loss as they committed 3 turnovers inside Temple's 35-yard line. Temple also had a 74-yard fumble return touchdown. I have a feeling Ga Tech's offense will get going and keep this game within one score. Take the hungry host! 

4*Ball State +5.5

This is a big revenge game for the visitors with two weeks to prepare. Ball State lost 24-16 despite outgaining the Huskies 391-370 last season. Northern Illinois is allowing 7.5 yards per play while Ball State is allowing 5.9 yards per play. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU against Ball State in the past 10 meetings which is why the public is pounding the home team. This is a game Ball State has circled on its schedule. I think this line should be closer to 4 points. Take the road dog! 

5*Baylor Bears +3

This will be Iowa State's first road game of the season. Baylor has revenge on their minds after losing 28-14 despite outgaining the Cyclones 505-357 last season. Baylor is allowing 3.7 yards per play (6th) on defense while Iowa State is allowing 4.7 yards per play (32nd). College Football teams that scored 70 or more points are cashing 22% as road chalk the very next week. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS after a win of 20+ points. Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their past eight meetings at home. More of the same!

5*Boston College +7

Two weeks ago, BC got smoked 48-24 as 18.5-point home chalk. I think they learned their lesson and have been waiting to play at home ever since that game ended. I love playing BC in conference games as the Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in this role of late. I think the line should be closer to 5, so I'm taking the points with Boston College.

5*Toledo +2.5

This is a tough travel spot for BYU after playing four straight Power 5 schools. My super computer agrees and calls for a 2-point win by the Rockets. The Cougars have been outgained by 290 yards in their four games combined. The wrong team is favored. Take the points with the better defense at home!

5*Mississippi Rebels -2

This is a huge spot for the home team knowing they play Alabama next week. The Rebels catch California off a phony 23-17 win against North Texas as 14-point home chalk. California was outgained by 51 yards and have been outgained in two straight. This is the first road game for the Golden Bears outside the Pacific time zone. California has to play a 9:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity down south. The Golden Bears play Arizona State next week. Ole Miss has the the talent to win this game by 3 or more points! 

5*Northwestern +9.5

The total is around 38 points. I will almost always take the underdog if getting more than a TD with any NCAAF total below 43 points. The underdog in Northwestern games is on a 12-1-1 run. Michigan State was upset last week and the public is betting on a bounce back effort. This line opened at 6.5 points. Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. At this current number, I'm take the home underdog in this spot.

4*Virginia -7

This is the first time that Virginia is favored to win against FSU. Rightfully so in my opinion. Two programs heading in opposite directions. FSU is coming off an emotional OT win last week. Virginia has this game circled all Summer. A chance to beat up on a former powerhouse. The Cavs won easily (despite -3 turnovers) in last week's blowout win over William & Mary. If Virginia was a stock they would be a strong buy right now. Finally, my super computer has Virginia covering 7 points rather easily. Still, just a 4 unit play.

10*Air Force +5

The Buffalos are off two a 2-0 start after that 17-point comeback win in OT against Nebraska. That was the only time they led in the game. I think Air Force will treat this game as their "Championship" playing an in-state rival they never get to play. These teams have't met since 1974. I was 2 years old. Air Force has two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Love it. Colorado has been outgained in both victories. With Colorado's Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona State, I believe the Falcons can win this game outright. The early start time (11:00 AM locally) benefits the rested team. Take the road team plus the points.

4*Wake Forest -2.5

This will be North Carolina's third game in 13 days. Tough. The Tar Heels upset the Hurricanes as 5-point underdogs despite getting outgained by 99 yards. Red flag. College Football teams are cashing just under 40% after upsetting Miami in the first two weeks of the season. Take Wake Forest minus the small number.

10*Fresno State +3.5

I think this line is out of whack. The Bulldogs outgained USC despite losing 31-23 last week. Minnesota defeated South Dakota state 28-21 despite getting outgained by 59 yards. Last year, Minnesota defeated the Bulldogs thanks to an amazing interception in the end zone. Minnesota will be playing this game (7:30 PM local time) with a 9:30 PM body clock time. The Gophers are 2-10 SU in their past 12 games away from Minneapolis. Fresno State is 28-4-1 SU in home openers. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.  

4*Northwestern +6.5

Stanford returns just nine starters with a shaky offensive line. They have no idea which QB will start for NW. That's a big advantage for the Wildcats. I think Hunter Johnson gets the call after transferring from Clemson. The Wildcats have been awesome as road underdogs going 27-9 ATS since 2008. Take the road team plus the points.

5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5

5*Nevada +2

The Wolf Pack should be pumped-up to play in its first Bowl game in three years. They should enjoy a significant home-field advantage too. Arkansas State is allowing 7.6 yards per play against other Bowl teams. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. The Red Wolves went 0-4 SUATS and were outgained in three of the four games. Nevada is allowing 6.0 yards per play against other Bowlers. Respectable. The Wolf Pack went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. fellow Bowlers. Nevada is 8-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the past three seasons. Take the points!

10*Syracuse +1.5

West Virginia came up just short of playing in the Big 12 Title game and will now play without QB Will Grier and their best offensive lineman. Jack Allison will start and he's only attempted 10 passes this season. Syracuse hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2013, and will be looking to reach 10+ wins since 2001. Hugh motivational edge favors Syracuse. Western Virginia is 7-27 SU in Bowl games since 1987, including 0-5 ATS L5 under Dana Holgorsen. Take the Orange to win easily!  

5*Baylor Bears +4.5

The Commodores played only a slightly tougher schedule than the Bears. Baylor won 1 game last season and now they are playing in the Texas Bowl. The Bears matchup with the Commodores at every level and should enjoy a home field advantage with Waco, Tx about 185 miles away. Vandy went 2-6 SU against other Bowl teams. Vandy has covered 5 straight games to end the regular season. That's a sweet fade in this bowl game. I'm taking the points with the better offense and defense!

5*Duke +4.5

The Blue Devils are coming off an ugly 59-7 loss against Wake Forest in the last game of the regular season. That's the worst loss in David Cutcliffe's 17-year head coaching career. The players love the guy and the entire team should be pumped up. Ed Foley will coach this game for Temple. He coached Temple two years ago in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty. Temple lost outright to Wake Forest as 11-point chalk. Temple has struggled against dual-threat QB's this season and QB Daniel Jones should thrive in this spot. Finally, Cutcliffe is 9-2 ATS in Bowl Games. Take the dog!

5*Troy +2.5

I think Buffalo U will be flat after blowing a 29-10 lead in the MAC championship game. Lance Leipold will be coaching in his very first bowl game. Advantage Troy. The Trojans should have a huge crowd edge. Advantage Troy. Troy went 3-2 SU against other bowl teams. Don't forget MAC bowlers are 1-10 SU of late. The Trojans are looking for 10+ wins for 3 straight years. Take the dog! 

5*Florida International +6.5

FIU QB James Morgan is a Bowling Green transfer. He threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns vs. the Rockets last year. FIU head coach Butch Davis is 6-2 ATS in bowl games. The Golden Panthers should be well represented in the stands as the team is only 180 miles away from home. Toledo, OH is close to 1,200 miles away. Toledo scored 107 points combined in their past two games and now must travel to play a bowl game. Tough. FIU is 6-1 ATS off a loss against a Conference Rival in their past seven tries. Take the dog!

5*UAB Blazers -1.5

The Blazers played their first Bowl game since 2004 last season. It showed, as they got annihilated 41-6 by Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. They should be super focused in this one. I believe UAB owns the better offense and defense. I have them rated 3.5 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. We have tremendous value at this current number. Northern Illinois is 6-18 ATS when playing on a neutral field, including 3-8 ATS in Bowl games since 1993. The Huskies average just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. UAB wins their first Bowl game in school history. Lay it!

4*Middle Tenn State +7

App State had a tremendous season but will have an interim head coach calling the shots. This will the final game for the father/son head coach QB duo. Brent Stockstill is a 4-year senior and his skill set plays well in College. The Blue Raiders played a tough non-conference schedule playing 3 SEC teams. I think they will keep this one close.

5*Fresno State -4

I have the Bulldogs rated significantly higher (6 points on a neutral field) than the Sun Devils. Fresno State is allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense while Arizona State is allowing 5.7 per play.  Fresno State should be motivated in this game as they want to end the season with 12 wins. In 2012, the Bulldogs had 11 wins going into their bowl game and lost 43-10 to SMU. This game will be played on turf. The Bulldogs played 12 games on turf this season and went 10-2 SU. The Sun Devils played three games on turf and went 1-2 SU. The Sun Devils have numerous injuries and key players that will not participate in this game. Arizona State is just 5-10 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1993. Fresno State is 27-10 ATS in all games over the past three seasons. Lay it! 

5*Texas +8

Wow. This line seems super inflated to me. I would have made the game closer to 6. Texas has covered six straight against the Sooners. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Texas is ranked #45 while Oklahoma is ranked 94th at Football Outsiders. We get 8 points with the much better defense in a championship game. Solid. The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three years. Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 2-5 ATS on a neutral field of late. Take the Longhorns in this upset maker.

5*BYU +12

The Utes are more focused on next week's Pac 12 Championship game in my opinion. BYU has outgained their opponent in five straight games while playing stingy defense. These two teams play tight games as 17 of the past 20 tilts have been decided by 7 points or less. The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings. More of the same. Temps are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain/snow. Winds 10-20 MPH. Take BYU plus the generous 12 points in this spot!

4*Ohio State +5

Now that the line has reached 5 points I have to take Ohio State. The public is all over Michigan at nearly a 70% clip. Take Ohio State in this upset maker!

5*Minnesota U -1

Minnesota plays much better at home and they need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. With Wisconsin on deck, the Golden Gophers should be super focused in their final home game. Northwestern has already secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Not much to play for. Take the hungry host!

5*California +5.5

USC has won 14 consecutive games vs the Golden Bears. California brings in the better offense and defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 net yards per play. USC has cluster injuries in the secondary and they have UCLA on deck. California is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games after scoring less than 20 points. USC is 18-37-1 ATS in their past 56 games after a SU win. And that's when USC had better teams! Take the road dog in this upset maker.

4*Tennessee U +6.5

10*Indiana U  PK

Indiana has been waiting for this matchup all season. This is a big revenge game for the Hoosiers who lost last year 42-39, despite outgaining Maryland 483-345. Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes while Kasim Hill is completing a smidgen over 50%. QB play is huge in November, and with two weeks to prepare I really like Indiana in this spot. There are a lot of distractions on the Maryland campus right now. Don't forget, they played a very physical game last week vs. MSU. The Spartans rushed the ball 46 times for 269 yards and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. Huge advantage for the host playing with fresh legs. The Terps are 1-8 SU in November over the past three seasons. Indiana is a respectable 9-9 SU at home when not laying more than 2 points over the past three years. Maryland is ranked 278th in yards per game while Indiana is ranked 83rd. Unload on the host!

5*LSU +14.5

Both teams will be playing with rest. It will hurt Alabama who had all the momentum of being undefeated. Happens a lot in College Football. This line shocks me even with the first half suspension. I think the Tigers will have even more motivation. Alabama has played two teams in the Top 50, while LSU has played five Top 30 (not 50) teams already. There has never been a Top 4 team getting this many points at home. Never. Keep in mind that LSU has just one home loss by more than 10 points in their past 67 tilts. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in weeks 10 thru 13 over the past three years. On the flip side, LSU is 6-2 ATS over that same time frame. The Tigers have been installed as an underdog 7 times in the past three years. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS when taking points. This is a classic overlay. Alabama wins but LSU gets the cash!

5*LA Tech +24

Battle of the Bulldogs. LA Tech covered against LSU as a big underdog and will now face a lesser team in my opinion. Flat spot for Miss State having played LSU & Texas A&M with Alabama on deck. LA Tech gave up two defensive TD's and that infamous 87- yard loss on a fumble in last year's matchup. The host is 2-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference foe of late, while LA Tech is 21-7 ATS as a road dog. I like the road Bulldogs plus the points.

4*Stanford -2.5

4*Missouri -7

4*Iowa +6

5*Mississippi State +7

The total is 44.5 points which suggests the game will be lower scoring. I will take the underdog with the better offense and defense. The Bulldogs average 5.8 yards per play while LSU averages 5.4 yards per play. The host is coming off an emotional upset victory against previously undefeated Georgia and will play Alabama after its BYE week. LSU is 0-2 ATS after a conference victory this season. More of the same. Take the Bulldogs!

5*Cincinnati U +4

The Bearcats are really good at running the ball (255.5 per game) while the Owls are ranked 108th against the run. Cincinnati is averaging 6.4 yards per play against much better competition while Temple is averaging 5.5 yards per play. Cincinnati is allowing just 270 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Really good. The Owls played a very physical game last week against Navy. The Midshipmen rushed the ball 53 times. I see advantages in the red-zone, kicking, and special teams for road team as well. Lets not forget the road team has two weeks to prepare while playing with triple revenge. Take the Bearcats before the line starts to go down.

5*Coastal Carolina -4

This will be UL Monroe's third straight road game and fifth road game in 6 weeks. Tough. Coastal Carolina has two weeks to prepare for this big revenger and welcomes pro-style QB Kilton Anderson back from his sprained ankle. Last year, UL Monroe defeated CC 51-43 despite getting outgained 441-344. Take the hungry host in a blowout!

5*Oregon +3.5

The Ducks will be pumped up with two weeks off to get over their meltdown against Stanford. I love the Oregon QB and I'm just not sold on this Washington team right now. Take the points!

5*Duke +3

This one is simple for me. Two weeks to prepare for the option and the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS against option teams under their current head coach.

5*Mississippi State +4

The Bulldogs are coming off two listless games and the line is only 4 points. Trap. The public is backing the Tigers by a tune of 79%. Taking the points with the better offense and defense. The home crowd should be fired up in this upset maker. 

5*NC State -4.5

NC State has outgained their opponent in 9 straight games dating back to last season. Boston College is leaking oil having been outgained in their past two tilts. The Wolfpack has a lot of team speed something BC is lacking right now The Eagles come into this game "nicked" up on offense. The backups will be tested for sure. I'll take the host by at least a touchdown.

5*California Golden Bears +3 (-103)

  This will be the Ducks' fifth game in 28 days. Tough. They blew a 10-point lead with 3:12 left in the final quarter against Stanford only to lose in OT last week. That was a game they really wanted to win. I don't think this is a great spot for the Ducks considering the Golden Bears will be playing with two weeks to prepare. Last season, Oregon defeated California 45-24, while Outrushing them 328-8. That's right, the Golden Bears only had 8 rushing yards for the entire game. The home team is holding opponents QB to a 91.8 rating, while Oregon is allowing QB foes to pass at a 144.7 clip. That ranks in the bottom half for any winning team so far this season. Take the home dog in this one! 

4*BYU +17.5

4*Georgia Southern +3.5

4*Oregon Ducks +2.5