4*Central Florida +6

This will only be Cincinnati's second road game of the season as they've been at home for the past three games. It's 30 degrees warmer in Orlando, FL than Cincinnati, Ohio. UCF will be pumped-up for sure knowing the Bearcats are 7-0 (against mostly weak competition) so far this season. The Knights dropped a 27-24 decision despite outgaining Cincinnati 423-341 last season. The Knights offensive line is ranked #36 while the Bearcats are ranked #76 at Football Outsiders. I see lots of value with the home underdog. UCF is 23-1 SU at home since 2017. Take the hungry host!

5*Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5

The Golden Hurricane have been waiting for this game. Last year, SMU won 43-37 despite getting outgained 500-440. Tulsa committed 5 turnovers. SMU committed zero. SMU has played a lot of cupcakes this season. Tulsa will be a stiffer test as they have the 23rd best defense at Football Outsiders. SMU is ranked 67th. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS after a BYE week of late. SMU is 3-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival. SMU is 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS as a road dog of 3 points or less since 1993. Lets swallow the 2.5 points and take the home team! 

4*Arizona State +12

This game is being played at 9:00 AM local time. Crazy. I think this will be a closer game than the spread suggests. Arizona State has a solid foundation and this team has lost by more than 11 points only once under Herm Edwards. The forecast calls for rain and wind. That should help the underdog as well. Take the points!

4*West Virginia +6.5

Texas is coming off that 41-34 win against Oklahoma State last week despite getting outgained by 243 yards. West Virginia is allowing 4.2 yards per play while Texas is allowing 5.1 yards per play. On offense, WV averages 5.8 yards per play while Texas gains 5.9 yards per play. I think this WV team is one of their best in quite some time. Last season, Texas beat the Mountaineers 42-31 despite getting outgained 463-435. Texas has a huge revenge game against Kansas on deck. This should be a one possession game so I'm taking the points! 

4*Auburn Tigers +2.5

Auburn lost to LSU last season by just 3 points. J. Burrow and C. Edwards-Helaire had huge games. Obviously, those players are in the NFL and LSU will be without QB Miles Brennan. Auburn's defense which is allowing 5.3 yards per play gets to face a true freshman QB. LSU is allowing a whopping 6.8 yards per play this season. I like the Tigers plus the points in this spot.

5*Indiana U +6.5

The Hoosiers return 17 starters and insiders believe its their best team in quite some time. In 2018 and 2019, Indiana lost by just 5 & 7 points respectively. The Hoosiers outgained Penn State 462-371 in Happy Valley last year. The Nittany Lions have a home game against Ohio State on deck. Take the hungry host! 

10*Mississippi State +6.5

Mississippi State returns home after a blowout loss in which they scored just two points. It was very misleading as they outgained Kentucky by 138 yards, but committed 6 turnovers. Mississippi State has outgained all three foes by a combined 470 yards this season. Texas A&M is coming off their first home win over a Top 5 ranked team since 2002. The Bulldogs are +1.2 in net yard differential while the Aggies are -0.1. Mississippi State is allowing 4.0 yards per play which ranks 5th in the nation. Texas A&M is allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play. Mike Leach called out his team for that sloppy performance last week. The Aggies beat Mississippi State 49-30 last year while outgaining the Bulldogs by just 8 yards. The difference was a -3 turnover ratio for Mississippi State. Texas A&M defeated Vanderbilt by only 5 points as 31-point chalk earlier this season. Take the Bulldogs in this upset maker!

5*Syracuse +2.5

My power rating in this game has the home team as 1-point chalk. I think the Orange have the better offense and defense. Don't forget Syracuse defeated Duke last year by a wide margin as 9-point road underdogs. No revenge here. I think Syracuse is the smart side in this one!

5*Clemson +6.5

This feels like a lot of points to me considering the look ahead line was a near pick em. Also, consider the fact that Clemson has the much better defense allowing just 4.2 yards per play. LSU is allowing 5.1 yards per play. I'll take the generous 6.5 points with a stud QB and tremendous head coach. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six Championship games and this is the longest time between the semi finals and Championship in playoff format history.

10*Tennessee Volunteers -1.5

The Volunteers, who have won five in a row and six of the last seven games, is on a roll heading into the Gator Bowl and should receive a boost from a partisan crowd in Jacksonville. Tennessee's defense allowed no more than 20 points during that five-game winning streak. The Vols (.589) played a much tougher schedule than the Hoosiers (.434) this season. Indiana went 0-4 SU while losing the stats in three of the four games against other bowl teams. They were outgained by an average of -98 yards. Tennessee went 3-5 SU and 4-4 in the stats against fellow bowlers. They were outgained by -34 yards, which is pretty good considering the very tough schedule (10th toughest among bowl teams) they endured. Love the fact that Tennessee has played 10 games on a grass field going 5-5 SU. Indiana has played just 3 games on a grass field going 1-2 SU this season. The Vols' offensive line is ranked 68th while Indiana's O'line is ranked 97th at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 22nd in special teams while the Hoosiers are ranked 41st. Tennessee has a -0.3 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a -1.6 net yards per play differential against other bowl teams. This is a huge edge to the Vols and a system of mine that has worked very well in the past. Finally, Tennessee is 7-2 SU against the Big 10 since 1993. Indiana is 1-6 SU when playing on a neutral field since 1993. Max play on the Vols!

5*Oregon +3

Don't sleep on this Ducks' defense as they held 6 foes to season-low or 2nd-low yards this season. Teams almost played the exact same strength of schedule (Oregon .573 vs Wisconsin .572) this season. Oregon's defensive line is ranked 27th while Wisconsin's defensive line is ranked 48th at Football Outsiders. Special teams edge to the Ducks as they are ranked 17 spots higher (36 vs 53). This will be Justin Herbert's final game before getting drafted this Spring. Love it. I believe this team wants to send him out as a winner. I like the Ducks plus the points in this one!

5*Western Michigan +3.5

The Broncos should be extremely motivated after losing their bowl game last season by 31 points. Western Michigan has a +0.7 net yards per play differential while Western Kentucky has a +0.3 net yards per play differential. Western Michigan lost their last game of the Season by a FG despite outgaining Northern Illinois 348-250. The Broncos are 4-0 ITS (in the stats) while WM went 2-2 ITS down the stretch. I love playing on Bowl underdogs that average 200+ yards rushing & 200+ passing yards. First-year head coaches tend to struggle as a favorite in bowl games. Finally, WK is 4-12 ATS as a favorite in their past 16 games. Take the points with Western Michigan.

5*Iowa -2

The Hawkeyes boast the better offensive and defensive lines. Iowa also owns the much better defense and special teams. I am pleasantly surprised this line is under a FG. Iowa ranks 5th in Red Zone offense and they are ranked 4th in fewest penalty yards. Usc allows more points (30) than they score (28) against other Bowl teams. Red flag. Take Iowa in the Holiday Bowl!

5*Temple Owls +5

North Carolina has played 9 one-possession games this season. The Tar Heels went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. other Bowl teams this season. The Owls are playing in a bowl game for the fifth straight season and are playing in the Military Bowl for the third time overall. They most recently played in the Military Bowl in 2016 when they were upended by Wake Forest, and they also lost to UCLA here in 2009 when it was known as the EagleBank Bowl. The Owls are extremely motivated to get a win for the senior class. Temple went 3-1 SU down the stretch while outgaining all four teams. Temple's only setback was against Cincinnati by 2 points. The Owls are ranked 4th in red zone defense. Temple is ranked 30th in team defense while North Carolina is ranked 61st at Football Outsiders this season. Temple went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after a BYE week while NC went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the points with the much better defense in this one!

10*San Diego State +5.5

This will be first time all season the Cougars play back-to-back road games without a week of rest. They traveled to Umass last week. BYU has already accepted an invitation to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I have to question their motivation. The Aztecs will be motivated as they want 9 wins this season. They are also coming off a tough 3-point setback at Hawaii last week on a game ending miss FG. Rocky Long has SD state playing stifling defense. This unit is ranked 8th in the nation--allowing just 288 yards per game. San Diego State is ranked #2 in defensive line play while BYU is ranked 116th at Football Outsiders. The Aztecs are ranked 23rd in special teams while BYU is ranked 100th. The Cougars have played a very easy schedule and this will be the 2nd best defense BYU has faced. Utah defeated BYU 30-12 in week one (at BYU) who has a similar defense. Carson Baker gets the start at QB for the Aztecs. He's from the area and BYU has no idea what to expect on offense. I'm all over the home underdog in this one. Try a slice on the money line as well (+180).

4*Kansas State +5.5

4*Louisville +3.5

5*Indiana Hoosiers +10

The Hoosiers have an offense that can score on almost any defense. Indiana has a net yards per play differential of +1.3 while Michigan has a +1.7 mark. Michigan has a bigger game against Ohio State next week. I think the Hoosiers are undervalued in this spot. I have this game closer to 7 points. Take the home dog! 

5*Navy +9.5

Navy enters this game with a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Notre Dame has a +1.4 net yards per play differential. Navy has two weeks to prepare and has revenge from last year's setback. Navy is 3-0 ATS when getting less than 10 points against ND. Navy is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1993. Notre Dame is just 3-6 ATS in November the past three years. I think this line should be closer to 7.5 to 8 points. I like the road dog in this one! 

5*Indiana +15.5

Wow, this line is out of whack. The Hoosiers lost 33-28 to Penn State last year as 14-point home underdogs, despite outgaining the Nittany Lions 554-417. Indiana has the offense to score points against anyone. They also have an extra week of rest. Penn State had its dream of making the playoffs crushed with last weak's loss to Minnesota. Tough spot for the home team. Penn State has just an 11% chance of making it to the final four. Penn State has a +2.0 net yards per play differential while Indiana has a +1.3 net yards per play differential. I don't think the gap between these two teams is 15.5 points. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival while Penn State is 1-4 ATS off a loss against a conference foe. I'm all over the road dog in this spot!

10*Kentucky Wildcats PK

This will be the Volunteers first game on turf this season while playing its 6th straight game without rest. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on turf over the past three seasons. Tennessee has dominated Kentucky (32-2 SU) and the Wildcats will be pumped up at home in prime time. Kentucky has extra prep time knowing they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on turf of late. Actually, the Wildcats are 19-5 SU on turf over the past three seasons. Mark Stoops is a great coach off a BYE as Kentucky already won & covered with two weeks to prepare earlier this season. Kentucky is 14-5 SU at home over the past three years while Tennessee checks in with a 1-9 SU road record of late. The Vols are 4-16 SU against conference foes of late, and they have a huge revenge game (lost 50-17) against Missouri on deck. Tennessee has a -2.2 net yards per play differential on the road while Kentucky has a +0.6 net yards per play differential at home. Last year, Tennessee dealt Kentucky is third and final loss of the season while benefiting from a +3 turnover margin. Finally, the Vols are 0-3 SU after two or more consecutive victories over the past three years. Love Kentucky in this spot!

5*Kansas +6.5

This is a letdown spot for Kansas State coming off its big win against Oklahoma. It was just their fourth victory against a Top 5 team in school history. Kansas State is 1-3 ATS in the very next game. After switching to a new offensive coordinator, the Jayhawks have turned a corner on that side of the ball. Kansas has a +0.3 in net yards per play differential while Kansas State has a -0.9 net yards per play differential this season. Also, the Wildcats have been outgained in five straight games. Finally, Kansas State is ranked 129th in red zone defense. I really like Kansas plus the generous 6.5 points!

5*Oklahoma State -3

The Cowboys committed five turnovers in their 10-point upset loss against Texas Tech two weeks ago. OK State will be playing with rest & revenge from last year's 35-31 loss, despite outgaining Baylor 513-402. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Baylor checks in with a sub-par 5-10 SU record against winning teams over the past three years. I think Oklahoma State will bounce back, considering they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival of late. Baylor will be unbeaten no more. Take the hungry host!

4*Boston College +3.5

This line opened NC State -1 and the public is backing the road team by nearly an 85% clip. Boston College will be without their starting QB (Anthony Brown), but backup Dennis Grosel is more than ready. I like the fact that NC State has never played against Grosel. They don't really know what to expect. Boston College is coming off a BYE and the Wolfpack have two big revenge games on deck. Seems like a flat spot for the road team so I'm taking BC plus the points.

4*Iowa +3.5

Iowa played Michigan tough despite QB Nate Stanley's three interceptions. I love the Hawkeyes to bounce back at home in prime time. Penn State has played a weak schedule and almost lost to Pittsburgh. Iowa has been great as a home underdog, cashing just under 71% over the past decade. In a battle of two top 5 defensive teams, I'll take the Hawkeyes in this spot.

4*Nevada -2

It's been two weeks since Nevada suffered a 51 point home loss to Hawaii. This is a great spot to bounce back. San Jose State has been winning with smoke & mirrors (+9 turnovers) and this will be their third road game in 21 days. Nevada is a stellar 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival while San Jose State is 1-9 SU against winning teams of late. I also like the QB change to Malik Henry. Take the hungry host!

5*Georgia Tech +10.5

This is a great spot for the home team. North Carolina is coming off a very emotional 1-point loss (went for 2-point conversion) against Clemson as nearly a 3 TD underdog. In fact, the Tarheels have played five straight one possession games. Ga Tech is coming off a misleading loss as they committed 3 turnovers inside Temple's 35-yard line. Temple also had a 74-yard fumble return touchdown. I have a feeling Ga Tech's offense will get going and keep this game within one score. Take the hungry host! 

4*Ball State +5.5

This is a big revenge game for the visitors with two weeks to prepare. Ball State lost 24-16 despite outgaining the Huskies 391-370 last season. Northern Illinois is allowing 7.5 yards per play while Ball State is allowing 5.9 yards per play. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU against Ball State in the past 10 meetings which is why the public is pounding the home team. This is a game Ball State has circled on its schedule. I think this line should be closer to 4 points. Take the road dog! 

5*Baylor Bears +3

This will be Iowa State's first road game of the season. Baylor has revenge on their minds after losing 28-14 despite outgaining the Cyclones 505-357 last season. Baylor is allowing 3.7 yards per play (6th) on defense while Iowa State is allowing 4.7 yards per play (32nd). College Football teams that scored 70 or more points are cashing 22% as road chalk the very next week. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS after a win of 20+ points. Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their past eight meetings at home. More of the same!

5*Boston College +7

Two weeks ago, BC got smoked 48-24 as 18.5-point home chalk. I think they learned their lesson and have been waiting to play at home ever since that game ended. I love playing BC in conference games as the Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in this role of late. I think the line should be closer to 5, so I'm taking the points with Boston College.

5*Toledo +2.5

This is a tough travel spot for BYU after playing four straight Power 5 schools. My super computer agrees and calls for a 2-point win by the Rockets. The Cougars have been outgained by 290 yards in their four games combined. The wrong team is favored. Take the points with the better defense at home!

5*Mississippi Rebels -2

This is a huge spot for the home team knowing they play Alabama next week. The Rebels catch California off a phony 23-17 win against North Texas as 14-point home chalk. California was outgained by 51 yards and have been outgained in two straight. This is the first road game for the Golden Bears outside the Pacific time zone. California has to play a 9:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity down south. The Golden Bears play Arizona State next week. Ole Miss has the the talent to win this game by 3 or more points! 

5*Northwestern +9.5

The total is around 38 points. I will almost always take the underdog if getting more than a TD with any NCAAF total below 43 points. The underdog in Northwestern games is on a 12-1-1 run. Michigan State was upset last week and the public is betting on a bounce back effort. This line opened at 6.5 points. Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. At this current number, I'm take the home underdog in this spot.

4*Virginia -7

This is the first time that Virginia is favored to win against FSU. Rightfully so in my opinion. Two programs heading in opposite directions. FSU is coming off an emotional OT win last week. Virginia has this game circled all Summer. A chance to beat up on a former powerhouse. The Cavs won easily (despite -3 turnovers) in last week's blowout win over William & Mary. If Virginia was a stock they would be a strong buy right now. Finally, my super computer has Virginia covering 7 points rather easily. Still, just a 4 unit play.

10*Air Force +5

The Buffalos are off two a 2-0 start after that 17-point comeback win in OT against Nebraska. That was the only time they led in the game. I think Air Force will treat this game as their "Championship" playing an in-state rival they never get to play. These teams have't met since 1974. I was 2 years old. Air Force has two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Love it. Colorado has been outgained in both victories. With Colorado's Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona State, I believe the Falcons can win this game outright. The early start time (11:00 AM locally) benefits the rested team. Take the road team plus the points.

4*Wake Forest -2.5

This will be North Carolina's third game in 13 days. Tough. The Tar Heels upset the Hurricanes as 5-point underdogs despite getting outgained by 99 yards. Red flag. College Football teams are cashing just under 40% after upsetting Miami in the first two weeks of the season. Take Wake Forest minus the small number.

10*Fresno State +3.5

I think this line is out of whack. The Bulldogs outgained USC despite losing 31-23 last week. Minnesota defeated South Dakota state 28-21 despite getting outgained by 59 yards. Last year, Minnesota defeated the Bulldogs thanks to an amazing interception in the end zone. Minnesota will be playing this game (7:30 PM local time) with a 9:30 PM body clock time. The Gophers are 2-10 SU in their past 12 games away from Minneapolis. Fresno State is 28-4-1 SU in home openers. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.  

4*Northwestern +6.5

Stanford returns just nine starters with a shaky offensive line. They have no idea which QB will start for NW. That's a big advantage for the Wildcats. I think Hunter Johnson gets the call after transferring from Clemson. The Wildcats have been awesome as road underdogs going 27-9 ATS since 2008. Take the road team plus the points.

5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5

5*Nevada +2

The Wolf Pack should be pumped-up to play in its first Bowl game in three years. They should enjoy a significant home-field advantage too. Arkansas State is allowing 7.6 yards per play against other Bowl teams. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. The Red Wolves went 0-4 SUATS and were outgained in three of the four games. Nevada is allowing 6.0 yards per play against other Bowlers. Respectable. The Wolf Pack went 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. fellow Bowlers. Nevada is 8-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the past three seasons. Take the points!

10*Syracuse +1.5

West Virginia came up just short of playing in the Big 12 Title game and will now play without QB Will Grier and their best offensive lineman. Jack Allison will start and he's only attempted 10 passes this season. Syracuse hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2013, and will be looking to reach 10+ wins since 2001. Hugh motivational edge favors Syracuse. Western Virginia is 7-27 SU in Bowl games since 1987, including 0-5 ATS L5 under Dana Holgorsen. Take the Orange to win easily!  

5*Baylor Bears +4.5

The Commodores played only a slightly tougher schedule than the Bears. Baylor won 1 game last season and now they are playing in the Texas Bowl. The Bears matchup with the Commodores at every level and should enjoy a home field advantage with Waco, Tx about 185 miles away. Vandy went 2-6 SU against other Bowl teams. Vandy has covered 5 straight games to end the regular season. That's a sweet fade in this bowl game. I'm taking the points with the better offense and defense!

5*Duke +4.5

The Blue Devils are coming off an ugly 59-7 loss against Wake Forest in the last game of the regular season. That's the worst loss in David Cutcliffe's 17-year head coaching career. The players love the guy and the entire team should be pumped up. Ed Foley will coach this game for Temple. He coached Temple two years ago in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty. Temple lost outright to Wake Forest as 11-point chalk. Temple has struggled against dual-threat QB's this season and QB Daniel Jones should thrive in this spot. Finally, Cutcliffe is 9-2 ATS in Bowl Games. Take the dog!

5*Troy +2.5

I think Buffalo U will be flat after blowing a 29-10 lead in the MAC championship game. Lance Leipold will be coaching in his very first bowl game. Advantage Troy. The Trojans should have a huge crowd edge. Advantage Troy. Troy went 3-2 SU against other bowl teams. Don't forget MAC bowlers are 1-10 SU of late. The Trojans are looking for 10+ wins for 3 straight years. Take the dog! 

5*Florida International +6.5

FIU QB James Morgan is a Bowling Green transfer. He threw for 335 yards and 5 touchdowns vs. the Rockets last year. FIU head coach Butch Davis is 6-2 ATS in bowl games. The Golden Panthers should be well represented in the stands as the team is only 180 miles away from home. Toledo, OH is close to 1,200 miles away. Toledo scored 107 points combined in their past two games and now must travel to play a bowl game. Tough. FIU is 6-1 ATS off a loss against a Conference Rival in their past seven tries. Take the dog!

5*UAB Blazers -1.5

The Blazers played their first Bowl game since 2004 last season. It showed, as they got annihilated 41-6 by Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. They should be super focused in this one. I believe UAB owns the better offense and defense. I have them rated 3.5 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. We have tremendous value at this current number. Northern Illinois is 6-18 ATS when playing on a neutral field, including 3-8 ATS in Bowl games since 1993. The Huskies average just 5.4 yards per passing attempt. Very few teams win Bowl games with that mark. UAB wins their first Bowl game in school history. Lay it!

4*Middle Tenn State +7

App State had a tremendous season but will have an interim head coach calling the shots. This will the final game for the father/son head coach QB duo. Brent Stockstill is a 4-year senior and his skill set plays well in College. The Blue Raiders played a tough non-conference schedule playing 3 SEC teams. I think they will keep this one close.

5*Fresno State -4

I have the Bulldogs rated significantly higher (6 points on a neutral field) than the Sun Devils. Fresno State is allowing 4.8 yards per play on defense while Arizona State is allowing 5.7 per play.  Fresno State should be motivated in this game as they want to end the season with 12 wins. In 2012, the Bulldogs had 11 wins going into their bowl game and lost 43-10 to SMU. This game will be played on turf. The Bulldogs played 12 games on turf this season and went 10-2 SU. The Sun Devils played three games on turf and went 1-2 SU. The Sun Devils have numerous injuries and key players that will not participate in this game. Arizona State is just 5-10 SU and 5-10 ATS in bowl games since 1993. Fresno State is 27-10 ATS in all games over the past three seasons. Lay it! 

5*Texas +8

Wow. This line seems super inflated to me. I would have made the game closer to 6. Texas has covered six straight against the Sooners. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced. Texas is ranked #45 while Oklahoma is ranked 94th at Football Outsiders. We get 8 points with the much better defense in a championship game. Solid. The Longhorns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three years. Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 2-5 ATS on a neutral field of late. Take the Longhorns in this upset maker.

5*BYU +12

The Utes are more focused on next week's Pac 12 Championship game in my opinion. BYU has outgained their opponent in five straight games while playing stingy defense. These two teams play tight games as 17 of the past 20 tilts have been decided by 7 points or less. The underdog is 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings. More of the same. Temps are expected to be in the low to mid 30s with a 50% chance of rain/snow. Winds 10-20 MPH. Take BYU plus the generous 12 points in this spot!

4*Ohio State +5

Now that the line has reached 5 points I have to take Ohio State. The public is all over Michigan at nearly a 70% clip. Take Ohio State in this upset maker!

5*Minnesota U -1

Minnesota plays much better at home and they need one more victory to become bowl-eligible. With Wisconsin on deck, the Golden Gophers should be super focused in their final home game. Northwestern has already secured a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. Not much to play for. Take the hungry host!

5*California +5.5

USC has won 14 consecutive games vs the Golden Bears. California brings in the better offense and defense. A stop unit that is allowing just 4.8 net yards per play. USC has cluster injuries in the secondary and they have UCLA on deck. California is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games after scoring less than 20 points. USC is 18-37-1 ATS in their past 56 games after a SU win. And that's when USC had better teams! Take the road dog in this upset maker.

4*Tennessee U +6.5

10*Indiana U  PK

Indiana has been waiting for this matchup all season. This is a big revenge game for the Hoosiers who lost last year 42-39, despite outgaining Maryland 483-345. Peyton Ramsey is completing 68% of his passes while Kasim Hill is completing a smidgen over 50%. QB play is huge in November, and with two weeks to prepare I really like Indiana in this spot. There are a lot of distractions on the Maryland campus right now. Don't forget, they played a very physical game last week vs. MSU. The Spartans rushed the ball 46 times for 269 yards and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. Huge advantage for the host playing with fresh legs. The Terps are 1-8 SU in November over the past three seasons. Indiana is a respectable 9-9 SU at home when not laying more than 2 points over the past three years. Maryland is ranked 278th in yards per game while Indiana is ranked 83rd. Unload on the host!

5*LSU +14.5

Both teams will be playing with rest. It will hurt Alabama who had all the momentum of being undefeated. Happens a lot in College Football. This line shocks me even with the first half suspension. I think the Tigers will have even more motivation. Alabama has played two teams in the Top 50, while LSU has played five Top 30 (not 50) teams already. There has never been a Top 4 team getting this many points at home. Never. Keep in mind that LSU has just one home loss by more than 10 points in their past 67 tilts. Alabama is just 3-5 ATS in weeks 10 thru 13 over the past three years. On the flip side, LSU is 6-2 ATS over that same time frame. The Tigers have been installed as an underdog 7 times in the past three years. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS when taking points. This is a classic overlay. Alabama wins but LSU gets the cash!

5*LA Tech +24

Battle of the Bulldogs. LA Tech covered against LSU as a big underdog and will now face a lesser team in my opinion. Flat spot for Miss State having played LSU & Texas A&M with Alabama on deck. LA Tech gave up two defensive TD's and that infamous 87- yard loss on a fumble in last year's matchup. The host is 2-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference foe of late, while LA Tech is 21-7 ATS as a road dog. I like the road Bulldogs plus the points.

4*Stanford -2.5

4*Missouri -7

4*Iowa +6

5*Mississippi State +7

The total is 44.5 points which suggests the game will be lower scoring. I will take the underdog with the better offense and defense. The Bulldogs average 5.8 yards per play while LSU averages 5.4 yards per play. The host is coming off an emotional upset victory against previously undefeated Georgia and will play Alabama after its BYE week. LSU is 0-2 ATS after a conference victory this season. More of the same. Take the Bulldogs!

5*Cincinnati U +4

The Bearcats are really good at running the ball (255.5 per game) while the Owls are ranked 108th against the run. Cincinnati is averaging 6.4 yards per play against much better competition while Temple is averaging 5.5 yards per play. Cincinnati is allowing just 270 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Really good. The Owls played a very physical game last week against Navy. The Midshipmen rushed the ball 53 times. I see advantages in the red-zone, kicking, and special teams for road team as well. Lets not forget the road team has two weeks to prepare while playing with triple revenge. Take the Bearcats before the line starts to go down.

5*Coastal Carolina -4

This will be UL Monroe's third straight road game and fifth road game in 6 weeks. Tough. Coastal Carolina has two weeks to prepare for this big revenger and welcomes pro-style QB Kilton Anderson back from his sprained ankle. Last year, UL Monroe defeated CC 51-43 despite getting outgained 441-344. Take the hungry host in a blowout!

5*Oregon +3.5

The Ducks will be pumped up with two weeks off to get over their meltdown against Stanford. I love the Oregon QB and I'm just not sold on this Washington team right now. Take the points!

5*Duke +3

This one is simple for me. Two weeks to prepare for the option and the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS against option teams under their current head coach.

5*Mississippi State +4

The Bulldogs are coming off two listless games and the line is only 4 points. Trap. The public is backing the Tigers by a tune of 79%. Taking the points with the better offense and defense. The home crowd should be fired up in this upset maker. 

5*NC State -4.5

NC State has outgained their opponent in 9 straight games dating back to last season. Boston College is leaking oil having been outgained in their past two tilts. The Wolfpack has a lot of team speed something BC is lacking right now The Eagles come into this game "nicked" up on offense. The backups will be tested for sure. I'll take the host by at least a touchdown.

5*California Golden Bears +3 (-103)

  This will be the Ducks' fifth game in 28 days. Tough. They blew a 10-point lead with 3:12 left in the final quarter against Stanford only to lose in OT last week. That was a game they really wanted to win. I don't think this is a great spot for the Ducks considering the Golden Bears will be playing with two weeks to prepare. Last season, Oregon defeated California 45-24, while Outrushing them 328-8. That's right, the Golden Bears only had 8 rushing yards for the entire game. The home team is holding opponents QB to a 91.8 rating, while Oregon is allowing QB foes to pass at a 144.7 clip. That ranks in the bottom half for any winning team so far this season. Take the home dog in this one! 

4*BYU +17.5

4*Georgia Southern +3.5

4*Oregon Ducks +2.5

4*Vanderbilt +2.5

4*Purdue +7

10*Utah Utes +7

The Utes are a real team and have this game circled on their calendar. The Huskies already played their biggest game of the season in week one against Auburn. Utah has been holding back in terms of scheming in anticipation of this matchup. The Utes are 36-19 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points since 1993. Washington has a huge revenge game on deck against Arizona State. Take the home dog!

 4*TCU +13.5

4*Syracuse +3

4*Stanford -5.5

5*Kansas State +9.5

I like the head coach and this team returns nearly all of its personnel on offense. The Wildcats defense held their last 8 foes below their scoring average last season. Kansas State had a scare last week in winning 27-24 against South Dakota. Should be much more focused in this one. This game should be a lot closer than most people think. Take the home team!

5*Western Michigan +6

This is a best bet selection based solely on my Power ratings. Because this is the first game of the year for both teams, I have this game at Syracuse -3.5. I will take the overlay with the home team.

5*Alabama -3.5

I think the Crimson Tide will ride their experience and head coach to an easy victory. This line should be closer to 5. Georgia is coming off an emotional victory and now must travel back home to play a team on a mission after losing last year's Championship. Nick Saban has game planed extremely well against freshman QB's that are one-dimensional. I will swallow the 3.5 points and go with Alabama.

5*Miami U +6

Before the season started, I wrote about three College Football Spotlight teams which you can read at my website. The previous two (Michigan State & Texas) both won and covered their respected bowl games. Miami was my third. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up to play in the Orange Bowl at home. They've had tremendous success in this Bowl game and the fans will surely be on the Hurricanes' side. Wisconsin had its dream crushed in losing to Ohio State otherwise they would be in the playoffs. I think this line should be closer to 4. Don't forget ACC Bowl underdogs are 9-2 SU against Big 10 opponents. I will side with the Miami U plus the points.

10*New Mexico State +4.5

This should be named the Aggie Bowl. I believe the team from Las Cruces will be extremely motivated to win their first Bowl game since the 1960 Sun Bowl. It's been 57 years since New Mexico State has gone bowling. Only 275 miles from home, the team from Las Cruces should be well-represented in the stands. The Aggies of New Mexico State owns better stats on both sides of the ball, especially against other bowl teams. New Mexico State has dropped three straight against Utah State which brings me to this stat. Non-Conference triple revenge underdogs of 5 or less points are a sterling 12-2 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the bowls. Lets take the generous 4.5 points in the Arizona Bowl!

5*Purdue +3

High-powered offenses (Arizona) tend to struggle as favorites with a month of rest. The Boilermakers improving defense will make it tough on Tate and company. Purdue went 5-2 ATS vs. other bowl teams while Arizona went 2-5 ATS. The Wildcats are allowing 6.5 net yards per play against other bowl teams while Purdue allowed just 5.5 net yards per play. Purdue had to pull an upset at Iowa to have a shot at a bowl game. I sense this will be a motivated team seeking to give Purdue its first winning season and bowl victory since 2011. Lastly, Rich Rodriguez has coached his teams to a 2-8 ATS bowl record in his career.

5*Northern Illinois +5.5

The Huskies own the better offense and defense. Duke is coming off back-to-back underdog revenge wins against GA Tech and Wake Forrest to become bowl eligible. They are now favorites despite going 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS against other bowl teams. Not to mention, they were outgained in five of those seven games. Northern Illinois is allowing just 4.6 net yards per play while Duke is allowing 5.4 net yards per play. I like the Huskies plus the points!

5*Central Michigan +1

Central Michigan should be extremely motivated after losing last year's Bowl game by 45 points. The Chippewas are averaging 5.9 net yards per play on the road compare to 3.9 for Wyoming, which ranks 4th worst in the nation. Eight or more win bowl teams coming off a 40+ bowl loss have gone 9-3 SU of late. I have CM as 2-point chalk so lets trust my numbers and take the Chippewas.

3*LA Tech +5

5*Boise State +7.5

The Broncos have better numbers against other bowl teams than Oregon and it's really not close. I am really surprised this line is a full touchdown. Bowl favorites off a 65+ point victory are 4-12 ATS of late. The Broncos have been terrific in bowl games as medium range underdogs (4 -7 points) going 4-0 in their last four tries. Boise State went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS against other bowl teams with a net yards gained of +42. Oregon went 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS against fellow bowlers with a net yards gained of +4. Boise State is 26-14 ATS as an underdog of any kind since 1993. Take the points in the Las Vegas Bowl!

4*North Texas +7

North Texas should be extremely motivated after winning 9 games this season. Before the season started, NT was projected to win about four games. They allowed 41 points to FIU in their final regular season game and should be pumped up in this spot. North Texas played a tougher schedule than Troy, and the Mean Green went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS against fellow bowlers. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. I think this will be a one possession game so I will take the points with the Mean Green.

4*Wisconsin +7

5*Georgia +3

Auburn has played two emotional games in a span of three weeks. Teams have been a solid play against after upsetting Alabama with no rest. Georgia has a very impressive 7.2 net yards per play in their home state while the Tigers have a net yards per play of 5.4 on the road. I think the Bulldogs have the better offense and defense. I got to believe the Bulldogs will be pumped-up for this rematch of its only loss of the season. Georgia has cashed seven of their past nine tries in same season revenge games. Take the underdog in this upset maker!

10*Iowa State +3

The Wildcats became bowl eligible in last week's 45-40 win against Oklahoma State. It was a phony win as they were outgained by 89 yards. In fact, Kansas State has been outgained in eight consecutive games. I have to question the host's motivation in this spot. They really can't improve their bowl position. On the flip side, we have a team that fully remembers what happened last season. Iowa State lost at home to these Wildcats 31-26 despite outgaining K-State 493-398. This is a circled game on the calendar for the Cyclones. We also get 3 points with the better defense that is allowing 59 fewer yards per game and 5.4 fewer points per game. I love using net yards per play in my handicapping process because it takes turnovers out of the equation. Iowa State has a net yards per play of 6.3 on the road while Kansas State checks in at 5.5 in home games. Overall, they are right next to each other in the rankings. The Cyclones also have a solid advantage in the red zone. Look for the road team improve to 10-3 ATS this season!

5*Fresno State +7

5*Texas Tech +7.5

This is a big game for the Red Raiders looking to become bowl-eligible. The host has a real shot as Texas Tech ranks 10 spots higher in Net Yards per play over TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an emotional season-crushing loss against Oklahoma. That's always tough to bounce back from. TCU is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons while Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points of late. I have this game as a 6-point spread so lets trust my numbers and take the home underdog.

10*Utah +1.5

I think Washington State is spent having played 10 straight weeks without rest. They will get a BYE next week before facing arch rival Washington U. The Cougars played a very physical game last week against Stanford and now must play a high-altitude game. Tough. The road team is one-dimensional on offense, averaging just 85 rushing yards per game compared to 161 for the host. The Utes are 8-2 ATS when playing teams with a winning record over the past three seasons. Utah has a Net yards per play of 5.8 at home, while WA State is at 5.3 Net yards per play on the road. College Football Home underdogs (above .500) that out-rush its opponent are 52-24 ATS this decade. Take the Utes!

5*Georgia Tech +3

After Virginia Tech saw its Coastal Title hopes dashed, this spot sets up perfectly for the Yellow Jackets to catch the Hokies sleeping with the early kickoff. The host runs that option up and down the field and are intent on snapping their recent slump. This team should be pumped up trying to stay in the hunt for a Bowl game. The Jackets are ranked five spots higher in Net yards per play over the Hokies. Take the hungry host.

4*Miami FL +3