5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.

4*Creighton +2.5

The Blue Jays get their coach back for this revenge game. In the first meeting, Xavier overcame a halftime deficit as Creighton committed 21 turnovers. The Blue Jays are coming off a horrific shooting performance from the field (35.6%) and beyond the arch (9.1%) Xavier is coming off an emotional loss as Providence nailed a 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left on the clock. I like the home team in this spot!

4*Central Florida +4.5

I like the Knights in this spot getting points. UCF is 7-4 SU against winning teams. I have this game power-rated at 2.5 points. Great value on the road team!

3*Miami Florida -2

FSU has defeated the Hurricanes in eight straight meetings, including a 1-point victory this past week. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up at home in this revenge spot.

3*Central Florida +2

This is a classic wise guy handicap where one team (Memphis) has shot the lights out in two straight games, while the other team (UCF) has shot well below their season average in their last two games. A regression and progression to the means usually happens. Take the home team with the better defense.

4*FSU -4.5

The Seminoles are coming off a non-effort against Wake Forest. FSU shot 24.2% from the field, including 16% (4-for-25) from beyond the arc. It was the Seminoles most lopsided conference defeat since 2017 and worst shooting performance since 2010. Louisville was been winning close games of late. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Georgetown +2.5

This line is way too high even though Georgetown hasn't played since Dec. 18th. Marquette is coming off an upset win against Providence. The Golden Eagles shot 52.5% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point land, and 88.9% from the FT line, while scoring a season-high 88 points. Marquette is 5-14 ATS (0-2 TY) vs. teams that average 77 or more points per game. I like the home team in this spot!

4*USC +9

I think the Trojans match-up fairly well with the Zags. USC will be the toughest test for the undefeated juggernaut so far in the tourney. This should be a closer game than the line suggests so lets take the points. 

3*Syracuse +6.5

Houston has played one of the easiest schedules in all of College hoops. The Cougars haven't looked great in "big" games, and needed a huge rally midway thru the 2nd half against Rutgers. Syracuse is on a 6-0 ATS run, winning fives games outright. The Orange are 13-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. On the flip side, Houston is 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. My only concern is that the public is betting the Orange in a big way. Light play on the underdog!

4*Syracuse +4

The line has now inflated to where I think Syracuse is the right side. The 2-3 zone can be difficult to prepare for if you don't have a lot of time. Over the past five games, Syracuse has a +9.2 point differential while WV has a +2.6 point differential. The underdog is 4-1 ATS past five meetings. Take the points!

4*Florida Atlantic +4

The Florida Atlantic Owls are riding a four game winning streak, and they're winning their last five games by an average of 8.8 points while shooting 46.2 percent from the field. This lined opened at -2 and has steamed up to this current number. I like the underdog!

4*Michigan State +8.5

The Spartans return home after getting crushed 69-50 against Michigan on Thursday. The Wolverines clinched the conference title and have nothing to play for. Michigan State shot 36.5% from the field and missed all nine 3-point attempts. Tom Izzo should have his troops ready for this rematch. It's a big game for the home team if they want to secure a spot in the Big Dance.

5*Loyola Marymount +2

The Lions are 2-0 against SF this season and will be playing with extra rest. ULM is 7-1 when playing with three or more days of rest this season. San Francisco has played four more games than the Lions including a win over San Diego on Thursday. I think the wrong team is favored. Take the points!

4*Indiana +3.5

The most recent time the two teams played, Rutgers posted a 74-70 victory on Jan. 24, winning at Assembly Hall for the first time in program history. Rutgers' Myles Johnson bottled up Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, holding the Hoosiers' top scorer to 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting from the field while forcing him into four turnovers. I like Indiana plus the points in the rematch.

4*Southern Illinois -1

The Salukis have been waiting for this game ever since the schedule came out. On Feb. 12th 2020, Valparaiso defeated Southern Illinois 55-38. The 38 points were a season and all-time school low. Valpo has a -6.3 point differential on the road while the Salukis have a +3.0 point differential at home. The Crusaders are 1-6 straight-up when playing with three days rest and 3-10 SU in road games. Southern Illinois is 28-14 SU when installed as a favorite over the past three seasons. I will swallow the 1 point with the home team in this spot. 

4*Duke +2 (+100)

I know that Virginia has not lost back-to-back games all season and on paper they should roll. Duke is playing much better and needs a signature win against a ranked opponent to have any chance at making the postseason. Athletically, the Blue Devils can match-up pretty well and are obviously well-coached. They have lost a lot of close games this season. I think they are on the improve. This seems like the trap line of the year so far. Take the hungry host!

4*Georgia +3.5

The Bulldogs are coming off a blowout loss allowing 115 points. Coach and team should learn from that non-effort. I think Georgia matches-up well against Missouri. Take the home dog!

5*Michigan State +5

The Spartans lost to Iowa less than two weeks and head coach Tom Izzo has been great at same-season revenge games in his tremendous career. Michigan State is trying to climb back into the NCAAB Tournament picture and a win today would go a long way in achieving that. The Spartans are 8-2 at home allowing 66.4 points per game. Iowa is 3-4 on the road allowing 80.4 points per game. Take the home dog!

4*George Tech +4

Virginia is coming off a lights out shooting performance from field and beyond the arch. Georgia Tech is averaging about five more points per game and should be pumped-up playing a ranked rival at home. Take the points!

3*Georgia Tech -3

Notre Dame is coming off two very impressive wins, shooting over 50% while covering the spread by a combined 45 points. Georgia Tech shot 32.4% from the field and just 66.7% from the free-throw stripe in losing at Louisville on Monday. The Fighting Irish are 7-34 straight-up as an underdog over the past three seasons. This is a great spot to back the home team!

4*Maryland -1

Purdue is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time this season. They are coming off a big win against Minnesota covering the spread by 16.5 points. Purdue does most of its damage on the road. Maryland should be pumped-up, playing a ranked opponent at home with extra rest. 

3*Buffalo -2

The Bulls are ranked first in total rebounds while the Bobcats are ranked 264th. Ohio is 9-22 SU on the road over the past three seasons and 0-3 SU after winning two in a row this year. Ohio is 0-3 SU off a win against a conference rival. I will swallow the two points with the home team.

4*Ohio State +5

The Buckeyes are coming off a really bad shooting performance from three-point land and the free throw line in a 67-65 loss vs. Purdue. Wisconsin is coming off its best defensive performance allowing just 52 points against Northwestern. Before that, they allowed 54 points in defeating Rutgers. This line seems inflated to me so I'm taking OSU plus the points.

4*LSU -1

Alabama is coming off a 31-point victory. LSU can match-up very well so I will swallow the 1-point with the home team.

4*Richmond -4

The Spiders are coming off a loss in which they shot just 25% for 3-point land at home. Two home games ago, they shot 28% from downtown. They have played a much tougher schedule than Rhode Island and the Spiders average 34% from beyond the stripe. I think they will shoot better against a Rams' defense allowing close to 80 points in road games. Take the Spiders!

5*Notre Dame +2

The Fighting Irish match-up pretty well with this FSU squad as the Seminoles won 85-84 earlier this year. Notre Dame is coming off a poor effort in which head coach Mike Brey called out his team for its performance. The Fighting Irish are 9-1 at home after a loss this season and rank #1 in Assist/Turnover ratio in the nation. Take the hungry host!

4*Toledo Rockets -2.5

The Rockets have the much better stats and they are playing at home. Ball State is a flawed team. Take the hungry host!

4*Oklahoma +2.5

Texas Tech is coming off an 87-57 victory against Iowa State, covering the spread by +25 points.The Sooners have lost three straight and played Texas Tech close in the first meeting. Huge game for Oklahoma. This game will be played in an NBA arena (OKC Thunder) and really like the home team in this spot!

5*Memphis +2.5

Huge game for Memphis as they gout ousted by Houston in last year's AAC tournament. The game was real close. Houston is coming off a 76-43 victory with an ATS margin of 22.5 points. They are in a real letdown spot. I know this game means more for the home team. Take the points!

5*St. John's +2.5

I have this game closer to pick em so let's take the generous 2.5 points. A Red Storm outright win would not shock me. Take the underdog!

4*SMU +2

5*Indiana U -1.5

The Hoosiers have dropped three straight and should be super focused at home in this spot. Purdue defeated Iowa 104-68 on Wednesday. The 36-point victory was the largest in school history over a ranked opponent. Purdue shot 63.1% from the field and 55.9% from 3-point land. Purdue covered the spread by +31.5 points. Classic fade bait. How much energy can Purdue put out considering they are 2-6 on the road this season. Also, the road team is just 3-3 SU when playing with two days of rest this season. The Hoosiers are 9-4 SU when playing with three or more days of rest. Take the hungry host!

5*DePaul +1

Xavier is coming off it's biggest win of their season against Seton Hall on Saturday shooting over 50%. DePaul has a talented team and really needs a victory. DePaul has played better than their conference record suggests. They rank high in rim protection and will be pumped-up at home. Like them here.

4*Pennsylvania +1.5

4*Northern Illinois -3.5

4*Indiana -2

5*Memphis Tigers -3.5

Memphis returns home off a 40-point loss shooting 28.6% and just 9% from downtown. All season lows. It's the worst loss by a ranked team against an unranked opponent since 1993. I would expect a huge bounce back effort against a division rival.

10*Arkansas State +2.5

This will be the first road game for South Alabama in 12 days. This is also a big revenge game for the Red Wolves as they committed 18 turnovers in a loss earlier this month. In that game, South Alabama shot 35 free throws (making 25) compared to just 13 attempts for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves should be super focused at home in a big revenge spot. The Red Wolves are 6-2 SU against winning teams this season and 13-5 ATS overall. They are undervalued in this spot. The Jaguars are 7-26 SU on the road over the past three seasons. The home team is 6-1 ATS past seven meetings. I'll take the home underdog!

4*Temple +2.5

4*Georgetown +4.5

4*LSU -2.5

4*Boston College +3.5

5*Santa Clara -5

Santa Clara returns home off a 31-point loss. This team is highly motivated to get back on track.

5*Virginia -5.5

I picked this team to win it all before the tourney started. Virginia yields only 55.4 points per game and holds opponents to 28.7 percent shooting from 3-point range. Auburn loves to run a lot but the Cavaliers have excelled against high-tempo teams. I have seen this before when #1 seeds barley escape in the Elite 8, and than go on to blowout their next foe in the Final 4. I think Virginia will play its best game against an Auburn team that will miss Chuma Okeke quite a bit. The Cavs are 25-11 ATS this season which represents beating "Las Vegas" expectations close to 70% of the time. Public is in love with the underdog. Not me. Lay the wood up to -7!

4*Lipscomb +2

5*Virginia -4

5*Tennessee -1

I have the Vols rated much higher than Purdue. I think Tennessee will wake up against a Purdue team who rode Carsen Edwards career-best 42 points and nine 3-pointers in ousting the defending national champs. Very emotional game. Tennessee is ranked 5th at protecting the rim with 5.4 blocks per game. They almost blew a 25-point lead against Iowa. I think they will be super focused in this one. Take the Vols!

5*Liberty +9

5*Buffalo U +4

4*Villanova +4

I'm taking the points with the much defense. Look for a more complete effort after barley winning against St. Mary's. The Wildcats are the defending the Champs and will be playing with a "chip" on its shoulders after being listed as the underdog. Take Villanova plus the points!

5*Murray State +5

The Racers have Ja Morant and FSU does not. He will be the second player picked in the next NBA draft. Take Murray State in this upset maker.

5*Wofford +5.5

Both teams shot the lights out in their opening round games. Kentucky is coming off a 35-point blowout win over Abilene Christian. This Wofford defense can force the Wildcats into some turnovers. Kentucky is ranked 144th in ball security while Wofford is ranked 24th. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot 38.6% from the 3-point land in all neutral sites games. That's one of the worst marks of all the Top 2 seeds. The Terriers are ranked #2 in 3-point percentage in all of College basketball. I'll take the underdog in this spot!

5*Oregon +2

Oregon enters this game having won 8 games in a row. That's a key number. Underdogs in the first round having won 8 or more games in a row has been gold for quite some time. Murray State cashed in this role. I will take the Ducks in this one as they sport the better coach in my opinion. Oregon also has the advantage at point guard and this team is quite long on defense. I like Oregon to win outright.

5*Cal Irvine +5

The Anteaters will be playing in the Big Dance for the first time since 2014. They should pumped-up for sure. I love playing on underdogs in the first round if they have won 8 or more straight. This has been gold over the past decade. Murray State cashed for us yesterday in that same role. I actually think UC Irvine will give Kansas State all they can handle. The advanced metrics indicate that UC Irvine might win outright. Take the points!

5*Nevada -2

The Wolfpack are experienced, talented, athletic, versatile. On defense, they are long and athletic and can switch on any pick and roll. Nevada started 24-1, but went 5-3 to close the season, including two losses to San Diego State. It was the second straight season that the Aztecs sent the Wolfpack packing in the Mountain West Tourney semifinals. This team is well-coached under Eric Musselman. They have been tremendous after a loss the past two seasons. Last year, Nevada defeated Texas & Cincinnati before losing in the Sweet 16. Florida played a tough SEC schedule and went 9-9 in Conference play. Nevada went 15-3 against Conference foes. The advanced metrics suggests Nevada should be the favorites. Swallow the two points and take the Wolfpack.

5*Murray State +4

This Murray State team is for real. Ja Morant is a future NBA lottery selection. I love playing on underdogs in the first game of the tournament who have won 8 or more games in a row. This has been gold over the past decade. Take the Racers plus the generous 4 points. 

4*New Mexico State +6

Auburn relies on 3-point shooting, and will have to play at high-altitude for the first time all season after playing a late game on Sunday. They have also played one extra game this season. Tough. The Aggies are use to playing at altitude and they played at Colorado this season. Ignore the stats. This is a perfect situational play on the underdog.

4*St. Johns +2.5

5*St. Bonaventure -1

10*Davidson -2.5

This one seems quite simple to me. Davidson is better in all the key stats I look for, and have them rated 5 points better than St Louis right now. Lay the lumber!

4*Richmond +5.5

5*St. Johns -4.5

St. Johns has lost three in a row, including a loss at Depaul. I believe the Red Storm will get back on track playing at Madison Square Garden. St. Johns is 11-4 at home while Depaul is 3-8 on the road. Take St. Johns!

5*Temple -1

Central Florida is coming off its biggest win of the season defeating the Bearcats 58-55. Temple should be pumped-up for its last home game of the season. Temple wins this one!

4*Rice Owls -1.5

3*Texas +1

4*Penn State +2

4*Drake -4

5*St. John's +4.5

Taking the Red Storm here at home to give the Wildcats all they can handle. The Wildcats shot 42.5% from 3-point land in their last game. I don't see that high of a shooting percentage in this contest. Both teams recently played at Marquette. The Red Storm won by 1 point while the Wildcats lost by 1 point. St. John's lost by 5 points in the first meeting at Villanova and now they are getting 4.5 at home. Seems high to me. Take the hungry host!

4*Fresno State -1.5

4* Kansas State +3.5

4*Fresno State -1.5

4*Georgetown +5.5

4*Tulsa +4.5

4*Pennsylvania -5.5

5*Drake -4

The Bulldogs have an extra day of rest and will bring in the better offense and defense. Drake is 9-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS at home this season. Illinois State is 1-6 SU and 5-5 ATS on the road this season. I think Drake is the more talented team and peeking at the right time. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS vs. winning teams this season and 28-14 ATS in that same role over the past three years. Take the Bulldogs in this one!

3*Texas State +2.5

3*Kent State +8.5

3*Baylor +3

4*Boston College +6.5

5*Vanderbilt -3.5

The Commodores are coming off a season-low 47 points scored @ Kentucky on 1/12/19. They should be super focused at home after losing three straight. South Carolina has scored 172 points in their past two games combined and now must play a road game. Tough. SC will be playing its 4th road game this season were they are 1-2 SU. Take the hungry host!

4*Richmond +2

4*Northern Illinois +4

3*Mercer -1.5

4*Pennsylvania +6

4*Villanova -5

4*Duke -3

4*Kansas State +5.5