10*Kentucky +4.5

This matchup will be the Volunteers' sixth game in 14 days, while Kentucky has played two fewer games during the same period. The Wildcats have already defeated the Volunteers twice this season. They excelled in their shooting, primarily because Kentucky can shoot effectively over Tennessee with longer bodies. The Volunteers are at a disadvantage in size, ranking 189th in average height compared to Kentucky's 22nd ranking. Expect a close, high-scoring game, with Kentucky's experience in tight situations giving them a slight edge to win or at least cover the spread. The Wildcats have played the tougher non-con (No. 79 vs. 204) and overall schedules (No. 3 vs. No. 12). Kentucky is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that allow

5*New Mexico +4.5

Richard Pitino is 87-48 with New Mexico. They got crushed in the first round against Clemson last season. This team is much better, with an average height ranked 25th compared to 193rd last season. New Mexico boasts a potent offense, averaging 81.2 points per game (26th in the nation) compared to Marquette's 76.9 points. The Golden Eagles have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests. The Mountain West has a net rating of sixth, while the Big East is ranked fourth at Kenpom. New Mexico has the better defense, and the strength of schedule difference is not as significant as you might think. Marquette is 5-11 ATS vs. teams that win >65%.

5*Utah State +5.5

The Aggies are making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and won't be overwhelmed by the big stage. Utah State has won 15 of its last 20 games. The Aggies have a top-20 offense, ranking highly in 2-point shooting (12th at KenPom), three-point percentage (69th), and overall offensive efficiency (17th). UCLA is ranked 193rd in 2-point defense and 130th in 3-point defense. The Aggies play at a faster tempo, which could disrupt UCLA's rhythm, with an 88% Rim and 3 Rate compared to UCLA's 65.3%. UCLA experienced a mid-season slump and was eliminated early in the Big Ten tournament. Utah State played a much tougher Non-conference schedule (No. 139 vs. No. 312). I like the points, and an outright upset would not shock me.

3*Creighton +7

Creighton has already proven they can compete with St. John's, defeating them earlier this season. While St. John's boasts the nation's top defense (KenPom), Creighton's offensive efficiency (ranked 35th nationally) and elite inside scoring (over 60% on two-point attempts, the best in Division I) make them a tough matchup. In their last meeting at Madison Square Garden, St. John's defeated Creighton 79-73 in a tightly contested game. Creighton even held a five-point lead during the second half. The Blue Jays played a much tougher non-conference schedule (No. 46 vs. No. 174) this season. Grab the points.

3*Texas +2.5

Texas is currently led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who ranks 15th nationally with an average of 20.2 points per game. He has scored at least 23 points in five of his last seven games. The Longhorns have made four straight NCAA Tournament appearances and must stack up some wins. Texas has a significant height advantage (No. 64 vs. No. 300) and will seek revenge for an earlier loss. Grab the points.

10*Kansas +10.5

In a January matchup, Kansas had a six-point lead in overtime and maintained a six-point advantage in double overtime with 20 seconds remaining. After a series of fluky plays, including a missed free throw by the Jayhawks and a poor inbounds pass, Houston secured a 92-86 victory. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 31 vs. No. 103) and overall schedules (No. 13 vs. No. 28). Kansas also has a height advantage (No. 77 vs. No. 235). Kansas shot only 22% from three-point range in their loss at home to Texas Tech. Positive regression is expected. The Jayhawks believe they can defeat this team, so I love taking the points in this spot.

4*Kentucky +5

Auburn is coming off a dominant 106-76 victory vs. Oklahoma. After playing three straight home games, the Tigers will hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky's home-court advantage at Rupp Arena is significant; the Wildcats have a 14-2 home record this season, losing only to Tennessee and Alabama. The Wildcats are now fully healthy and have the size that can match up with Auburn's skillful bunch. By assigning Amari Williams to guard Johni Broome and Andrew Carr to defend the less offensively threatening Dylan Cardwell, Kentucky should be able to limit Auburn's interior scoring. I like the home dog.

4*Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have lost their last seven true road games. They aim to avenge a 69-61 loss to Minnesota earlier this month after blowing a 10-point lead in the first half. They were without 7-foot center Yanic Konan Niederhauser. He has returned for the last two games, and their defense looks much better. Penn State is coming off a convincing 89-72 win against Nebraska, which snapped a seven-game losing streak. The Nittany Lions average 79.8 points per game, with five players scoring double figures. The Golden Gophers have a 2-8 record against the spread as a home favorite. This line is too high for a Penn State team that can win outright.

4*Alabama -1.5

Alabama has won eight straight games and matches up well against Auburn. The Crimson Tide has the size and experience to beat a team of Auburn's caliber. The Coleman Coliseum is a challenging venue for visiting teams, with a seating capacity of 15,316 fans, ranking as the 22nd largest in Division I basketball. Alabama is 26-3 at home over the last two seasons. This will be the Tigers' fifth game in 14 days, while Alabama has played one fewer game during that span. That is a huge factor this time of year. Alabama defeated the then-ranked 4th-seeded Tigers 79-75 at home last year, and this year's team is even stronger.

4*Oklahoma U +5.5

This will be the Volunteers' first road game in two weeks. They have a record of 1-3 in their last four road tilts. Oklahoma returns home after suffering a 28-point loss at Auburn and should be fired up. The Sooners have been strong at home this season, losing just once at the Lloyd Noble Center. Oklahoma has an explosive offense that ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee has an elite defense; however, they have allowed 78+ points in two of their last three games. The Vols have a colossal revenge game against the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday. Oklahoma averages 84 points at home, while Tennessee averages 67 points on the road. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Kansas -1

I have been looking forward to this spot all season. Houston dominated Kansas 76-46 in the last game of the 2023-24 regular season. I love backing winning teams that previously lost by 30 or more points. I believe that Houston's statistics are somewhat inflated. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 27 vs. No. 100) and overall schedules (No. 7 vs. No. 49). Kansas has a height advantage (No. 84 vs. No. 223) and Division 1 experience (No. 1 vs. No. 51) according to KenPom. Look at who the Cougars have played in true road games: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and UCF.  They are coming off a 70-36 victory vs. Utah, where they had 19 steals and 11 blocks.

3*Alabama +2.5

Alabama has one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, averaging 91.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide also excels in rebounding, ranking as the second-best rebounding team in the nation with an average of 45.4 rebounds per game, compared to Kentucky's average of 40.9 rebounds per game. This advantage on the glass could lead to extra possessions and second-chance points, helping Alabama stay competitive throughout the game. While Kentucky has a potent offense, their defense has been a weakness this season. The Wildcats rank just 75th in defensive efficiency. Alabama is 3-0 after a loss this season. Kentucky is coming off two big conference wins. I like the road dog.

2*Illinois +8.5

UConn had only three losses during the season. Two of these losses were against Creighton and Kansas, who had a size advantage over UConn. However, Illinois is also a team with a size advantage, ranked 8th at Kenpom. The Fighting Illini have a lot of experience, ranking 11th, and have played a tougher schedule (No. 24 vs. No. 37). The Huskies have a +12.3 point differential in road/neutral site games. In comparison, Illinois has a +7.5 point differential. The Huskies have held their opponents to 58 or fewer points in four straight games. I anticipate some negative regression. Take the underdog!

3*Illinois +2

The Fighting Illini currently has the top-ranked offense at Kenpom. While Iowa State is known for its excellent defense, they have mostly played against weaker opponents in non-conference games, ranking 345th in difficulty. Illinois has a more experienced team as they rank 11th in Division 1 experience, compared to Iowa State's ranking of 124th. Illinois also has a better free throw percentage, ranked 85th, whereas Iowa State ranks 293. Teams with size may challenge the Cyclones as Illinois ranks 8th in average team height, while Iowa State ranks 100th. Furthermore, Illinois is a much better rebounding team, ranking 6th compared to Iowa State's ranking of 238th. I will gladly take the points in this spot!

3*Clemson +4.5

The Baylor Bears have faced the third most challenging schedule overall, but they ranked 101st against non-conference opponents. On the other hand, the Clemson Tigers played the 33rd toughest schedule and were 69th in terms of non-conference opponents. Clemson has a higher ranking in free throw percentage (9 vs. 103), rebounds per game (78 vs. 198), turnovers (53 vs. 175), and blocks (83 vs. 198). According to advanced analytics, the Tigers have a better overall defense. We must take the points in this spot!

5*Utah State +4.5

Utah State faced a much more challenging non-conference schedule compared to TCU. However, both teams maintain a close point differential, with Utah State having a +7.4 and TCU having a +8.0 this season. Utah State is a skilled team that excels at scoring inside (ranked 12th in 2-point FG%) and defending three-point shots (ranked third in the nation), according to Kenpom. The team is led by Danny Sprinkle, known for his excellent coaching skills, especially with extra time to prepare. The Aggies have demonstrated their ability to bounce back this season, going 4-1 after a loss. Utah State is 10-1 SU when playing with five or six days of rest since 2021, including 4-0 this season. Take the points in this upset maker!

4*Drake Bulldogs -1.5

Four different Bulldogs players have made 42 or more 3-point field goals, with Tucker DeVries leading the pack with 84 and Atin Wright following closely with 60. Drake has a solid 37% 3-point shooting average and hits almost nine 3-pointers per game. DeVries is the best player in the MVC, averaging nearly 22 points per game and leading Drake in rebounding, assists, and steals. He is a big-time NBA prospect. Washington State has lost nine road/neutral site games, including Arizona State (129th at Kenpom) and California (123rd). The Cougars rank 268th in free throw percentage, while Drake ranks 38th. Washington State shouldn't be seeded this high. I like the Bulldogs to advance!

3*Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones were one of three teams to defeat the Houston Cougars, winning 57-53 in Ames, Iowa, on January 9th. Houston returned the favor to beat Iowa State 73-65 at home on February 19th. I am a big fan of Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger. Iowa State is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS avenging a road loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season. The Cougars have 6 ½ healthy players after the injury to J'wan Roberts. Iowa State is 5-0 all-time in Big 12 Championship games. The total implies a lower-scoring contest, so let's take the points with the Cyclones.

3*St. John's +9.5

Connecticut has won both matchups against the Red Storm this season. Rick Pitino is known for his coaching abilities when seeking double revenge in the postseason. The Huskies have already secured a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, while Johnny is playing to get a higher seed. Pitino's crew can keep this game within the number. I was hoping for 10 points, but that's not happening.

4*St. Johns -3.5

After a humiliating loss to Seton Hall at home, where they blew a 19-point lead, the St. Johns Red Storm are on a 5-game win streak, thanks to Rick Pitino's leadership. Pitino has an excellent track record when seeking double same-season revenge and has proven to be outstanding in the postseason. St. Johns faced a more challenging non-conference schedule than their opponent (No. 148 vs. No. 241) and will play at Madison Square Garden, which has a home-court advantage of 3.9 points. I like the Red Storm in this spot!

4*Washington U +3

On March 5th, the USC Trojans won against Washington with a score of 82-75, even though they were 4.5-point underdogs. During the game, Washington allowed USC to shoot 54% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc. The Huskies ranked fourth in D-1 experience and will likely learn from this loss. All five starters on the team are seniors, and Mike Hopkins is a great head coach who achieved 20+ wins in 2018 and 2019. I make this point spread closer to zero. Play Washington U!

4*Mississippi State -4

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are determined to win their 20th game on Senior Day and want to avenge their previous 68-62 loss against South Carolina on January 6th. Despite suffering three consecutive losses, the Bulldogs have the better defense (No. 18 vs. No. 40) at Kenpom. The Gamecocks rank 307th in turnover differential, and betting against teams like them in their last road games has been profitable. Since South Carolina has no chance of winning the SEC, they may lack motivation. The Bulldogs are 3-1 after dropping two or more games in a row this season, and the Humphrey Coliseum ranks 9th in home-court advantage. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Wisconsin -1.5

Illinois hit the road after winning against Minnesota, 105-97 on Wednesday. The Fighting Illini had a shooting percentage of 55% on two-point shots and 70% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin lost at Indiana 74-70 on Tuesday, shooting just under 31% from three-point land. Despite recording 0 block shots, the Badgers had ten steals. Illinois is ranked 359th in creating turnovers and has a big revenge game against Purdue on deck. Their overall strength of schedule is ranked 46th, but they rank 247th in non-conference action. Wisconsin has played the fifth most demanding schedule overall, including 34th in non-conference games. The Badgers have a home record of 13-2 at Kohl Center this season, losing only to Tennessee and Purdue.

4*Kentucky -2

Alabama has scored 307 points in their last three games and now hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky can score with the best of the SEC and return home after a one-point loss in the final seconds at LSU. The Wildcats led 42-27 with 19:11 left in the second half and will be super focused in front of the 26th-ranked home-court advantage in the nation. The Rupp Arena holds 20,500, the sixth largest in Division 1. The Wildcats will be playing with revenge after the Crimson Tide won 78-52 last season, their largest margin of victory against Kentucky in school history. The Wildcats are 6-1 after a loss this season.

5*South Florida +6

South Florida's success this season has been built on their solid defense, which has limited opponents to 42.1 percent shooting from the floor and 31.1 percent from beyond the arc. However, they had a disappointing game on Wednesday night, with 15 turnovers, which did not please head coach Abdur-Rahim. The last time these two teams played each other was back in 2019, which should benefit the home team. Interestingly, fading ranked teams in the game immediately following their 20th win has proved profitable. As someone who values good defense, I will happily take the points with the underdog, especially since the game is sold out at the Yuengling Center.

4*Colorado State +6

San Diego State is determined to avenge their road loss against Colorado State. Hence, the majority of the public is rooting for the home team. However, the current line is exaggerated by at least two points. The Rams rank eighth in terms of effective FG percentage on offense, while the Aztecs are ranked 145th. Both teams are placed outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo, indicating a greater likelihood of a low-scoring, closely contested game. I like the road dog!

4*Washington U +8.5

Oregon upset Washington 76-74 as 4.5-point road underdogs on January 4th. The Huskies matchup quite well against the Ducks. This line is now inflated after opening at six. We are getting great value on the underdog. Speaking of underdogs, they are 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings. Play Washington in this major overlay!

5*St. Joe's +3

St. Joseph's is returning all five starters from last year's team. Last year's squad was eliminated by Dayton in the first round of the Atlantic-10 tournament, losing 60-54 as 10.5-point underdogs. This defeat ended the Hawks' season. Additionally, Dayton will have a chance to avenge their loss against VCU in the A-10 title game from last season on Friday. The Flyers are facing a tough look-ahead spot in this double revenge angle. I like the home team in this spot!

4*St. Johns +4

In December, the Connecticut Huskies won against St. Johns with a score of 69-65. They were 11-point home favorites. The Red Storm has been eagerly waiting for a rematch ever since. They have a great chance to defeat the top-ranked team in the nation. St. Johns has played the tenth most challenging schedule, while Uconn is ranked 51st in the strength of schedule. The Red Storm are 8-2 at home and have a higher consistency per possession, considering turnovers, steals, blocks, rebounds, and points. These key metrics are averaged together, and the Red Storm ranks higher than the Huskies. I like the home team quite a bit!

3*Ohio State +4

The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost 12 straight road games and are winless in conference away games. However, I still rate the Buckeyes higher, as they have played a tougher non-conference schedule and rank higher in consistency. With the Cornhuskers not at full strength, this is a great spot to back a motivated Ohio State squad.

4*St. John's +1

The St. John's Red Storm return home after two consecutive road losses where they only made 9 of 32 three-point shots. This is lower than their season's average of 34.2%. On the other hand, the Golden Eagles have a negative point differential of minus-1.3 in away games, while St. Johns has a point differential of plus-17 in their home games. Marquette will play just their third road game in over a month. St. John’s ranks significantly higher in rebounds and blocked shots. In the quarter-finals of the Big East tournament last March, Marquette eliminated the Red Storm with a score of 72-70. The home team looks to improve their record to 5-0 this season after allowing 80 or more points in this colossal revenge spot.

3*Iowa State +3

The Cyclones are gearing up to face the 11th-ranked Sooners in Norman, OK. They managed to pull off a victory last year as 3.5-point underdogs. This year's Iowa State team has the potential to win the game outright once again. Even when playing at home, I would only make Oklahoma 1-point favorites in this matchup. The road team is ranked higher on offense and defense, according to KenPom.

5*San Diego State +7.5

Both teams play real defense. The Aztecs' defense is elite which is why the total is relatively low. All the pressure is on Alabama. I try to keep it simple in the Sweet 16. I have this game power-rated closer to five points. I see value with the Aztecs in this spot. I love their coach too. Take the underdog in this spot! 

4*Auburn +5.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fifth game in eight days. A far cry from the regular season where teams get plenty of days to rest and prepare. I think the Tigers matchup quite well and that was before Marcus Sasser's groin injury. He's going to play, but won't be 100% healthy. Auburn played a much tougher schedule this season. I'm taking the points with the Tigers in this spot!

5*Michigan State -1.5

The Spartans are ranked No. 2 in three-point percentage. They shot 18.8% from beyond the arc in their loss against Ohio State. USC will be playing this game on a body clock of 9:15 AM. We just sprung forward too! The Trojans are a poor rebounding team that commits turnovers on 17.6% of their possessions. A Tom Izzo coached team with one week to prepare seems like the right side. Take the Spartans!

5*Boise State +2

The Broncos' head coach (Leon Rice) was a longtime assistant at Gonzaga and the players execute his system to perfection. Boise State holds opponents to just 30% from beyond-the-arc and has a Top 20 defense two years in a row. Max Rice (Leon's son) has exploded this year, averaging 14 points per game on 42% from 3-point land. He's also shooting 87.7% from the free-throw line. Northwestern is ranked outside the Top 250 nationally in points per game (290), three point percentage (292), and field-goal percentage (341). The Broncos are 5-2 straight-up in neutral court games, while Northwestern is just 1-2 SU this season. I like the Broncos quite a bit in this spot!

3*Utah State +2

The Aggies will be playing with triple revenge after San Diego State defeated Utah State twice this season. The Aztecs eliminated Utah State from the conference tournament last season as well. I think this line is a trap. The Aggies own a +14.6 point differential over their past five games, while the Aztecs are +6.2 in their past five tilts. San Diego State owns a negative point differential this season when playing without rest. They expended a lot of energy on defense holding San Jose State to 49 points. I like the Aggies in a mild upset!

3*Texas A&M -1

The Aggies are on a mission after returning four starters from a 27-win team last season. Texas A&M wasn't ranked in the preseason Top 25. The Aggies went 15-3 in conference games with a +8.2 point differential this season. Arkansas went 9-10 in conference games with a +1.6 point differential. I like Texas A&M in this spot! 

3*St. Johns -5

Teams have split two meetings this season. I was more impressed with the Red Storm and they can't get to play this revenge game at home. Butler is 6-13 SU and 8-11 ATS vs. losing teams this season. I like the home team in this spot!

2*USC Trojans +3

The Trojans need a signature win against a ranked team to solidify a berth in the Big Dance. USC shot 36.9% from the field and 23.5% (4-for-17) from 3-point land in the first meeting. Arizona shot 50% (12-for-24) from beyond the arc. USC is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS since that loss back on January 19th. These teams have similar stats in conference games with USC owning the better defense. Light play on the home underdog!

4*Boise State PK

The Broncos should be fired-up in their final regular season home game. Boise State has revenge from a 20-point loss back on February 3rd. They shot 37% from the field and 11% from three-point land (2-for-18). I think the Broncos will be a tough match-up and SD State will be playing their first back-to-back road games with the longest travel of the season. The Aztecs have a big home game on deck vs Wyoming. Max Rice has followed a poor shooting game (4-for-18) with a stellar performance this season. Boise State is 4-1 straight-up after a loss and extra pissed off after going down in OT. Take the Broncos!

4*Kentucky Wildcats +2

The Wildcats already defeated a much healthier Tennessee squad last month. The Wildcats can tie the Volunteers for third place in the conference with a victory. Tennessee is coming off an emotional high-energy win against the No. 1 team in the nation (Alabama). I like the home underdog in this spot!

3*Northwestern +3

The Wildcats already defeated Indiana when the Hoosiers were much healthier. Northwestern has won three in a row and plays really good defense at home. Lets fade Indiana playing in back-to-back road games! 

3*St. Johns +1.5

The Red Storm have dropped five in a row, and should be super focused playing a team they easily defeated last month. The Bulldogs are 0-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. St. Johns is 6-1 SU against losing teams, while Butler is 4-11 SU against winning teams. Light play on the road team!

3*Virginia Tech PK

Virginia will be playing its second straight road game. Virginia Tech returns home after a poor defensive effort with a chance to get a signature win against an in-state rival. The Hokies have been solid at home in revenge games vs. ranked teams. Take V. Tech!

3*Nevada +3.5

The Wolf Pack will be playing with revenge and should be focused facing a ranked team at home. Nevada is 5-0 SU after a loss this season. San Diego State is ranked No. 122 in free-throw percentage, while Nevada is ranked No. 4 this season. This line seems inflated to me. Take the points in this late night match-up!

4*Syracuse +5.5

I like playing on home underdogs after their opponent allowed less than 60 points and playing with one day of rest. Virginia is 3-5 ATS after allowing less than 60 points. Virginia has won seven in a row which kicked off against the Orange three weeks ago. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS revenging a road loss this season, and 3-0 ATS after allowing 80+ points. Joe Girard had one of his worst shooting performances of the season on Saturday and should bounce back with a big effort tonight. Take the hungry host!

3*Penn State +4.5

Michigan allowed just 46 points in defeating Maryland on New Year's Day, while covering the spread by 34 points. Penn State has the better defense and is 4-0 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Michigan has a big game against Michigan State on deck. I like the road dog in this spot!

3*Oklahoma State -5.5

I think the Cowboys are by far the more talented team. I have Oklahoma State nine points better on a neutral court. UCF is coming off a game where they allowed just 37 points. This will be a completely different experience in the Bahamas. Lay it! 

5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.

4*Creighton +2.5

The Blue Jays get their coach back for this revenge game. In the first meeting, Xavier overcame a halftime deficit as Creighton committed 21 turnovers. The Blue Jays are coming off a horrific shooting performance from the field (35.6%) and beyond the arch (9.1%) Xavier is coming off an emotional loss as Providence nailed a 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left on the clock. I like the home team in this spot!

4*Central Florida +4.5

I like the Knights in this spot getting points. UCF is 7-4 SU against winning teams. I have this game power-rated at 2.5 points. Great value on the road team!

3*Miami Florida -2

FSU has defeated the Hurricanes in eight straight meetings, including a 1-point victory this past week. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up at home in this revenge spot.

3*Central Florida +2

This is a classic wise guy handicap where one team (Memphis) has shot the lights out in two straight games, while the other team (UCF) has shot well below their season average in their last two games. A regression and progression to the means usually happens. Take the home team with the better defense.

4*FSU -4.5

The Seminoles are coming off a non-effort against Wake Forest. FSU shot 24.2% from the field, including 16% (4-for-25) from beyond the arc. It was the Seminoles most lopsided conference defeat since 2017 and worst shooting performance since 2010. Louisville was been winning close games of late. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Georgetown +2.5

This line is way too high even though Georgetown hasn't played since Dec. 18th. Marquette is coming off an upset win against Providence. The Golden Eagles shot 52.5% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point land, and 88.9% from the FT line, while scoring a season-high 88 points. Marquette is 5-14 ATS (0-2 TY) vs. teams that average 77 or more points per game. I like the home team in this spot!

4*USC +9

I think the Trojans match-up fairly well with the Zags. USC will be the toughest test for the undefeated juggernaut so far in the tourney. This should be a closer game than the line suggests so lets take the points. 

3*Syracuse +6.5

Houston has played one of the easiest schedules in all of College hoops. The Cougars haven't looked great in "big" games, and needed a huge rally midway thru the 2nd half against Rutgers. Syracuse is on a 6-0 ATS run, winning fives games outright. The Orange are 13-2 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. On the flip side, Houston is 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points since 1997. My only concern is that the public is betting the Orange in a big way. Light play on the underdog!

4*Syracuse +4

The line has now inflated to where I think Syracuse is the right side. The 2-3 zone can be difficult to prepare for if you don't have a lot of time. Over the past five games, Syracuse has a +9.2 point differential while WV has a +2.6 point differential. The underdog is 4-1 ATS past five meetings. Take the points!

4*Florida Atlantic +4

The Florida Atlantic Owls are riding a four game winning streak, and they're winning their last five games by an average of 8.8 points while shooting 46.2 percent from the field. This lined opened at -2 and has steamed up to this current number. I like the underdog!

4*Michigan State +8.5

The Spartans return home after getting crushed 69-50 against Michigan on Thursday. The Wolverines clinched the conference title and have nothing to play for. Michigan State shot 36.5% from the field and missed all nine 3-point attempts. Tom Izzo should have his troops ready for this rematch. It's a big game for the home team if they want to secure a spot in the Big Dance.

5*Loyola Marymount +2

The Lions are 2-0 against SF this season and will be playing with extra rest. ULM is 7-1 when playing with three or more days of rest this season. San Francisco has played four more games than the Lions including a win over San Diego on Thursday. I think the wrong team is favored. Take the points!

4*Indiana +3.5

The most recent time the two teams played, Rutgers posted a 74-70 victory on Jan. 24, winning at Assembly Hall for the first time in program history. Rutgers' Myles Johnson bottled up Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, holding the Hoosiers' top scorer to 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting from the field while forcing him into four turnovers. I like Indiana plus the points in the rematch.

4*Southern Illinois -1

The Salukis have been waiting for this game ever since the schedule came out. On Feb. 12th 2020, Valparaiso defeated Southern Illinois 55-38. The 38 points were a season and all-time school low. Valpo has a -6.3 point differential on the road while the Salukis have a +3.0 point differential at home. The Crusaders are 1-6 straight-up when playing with three days rest and 3-10 SU in road games. Southern Illinois is 28-14 SU when installed as a favorite over the past three seasons. I will swallow the 1 point with the home team in this spot. 

4*Duke +2 (+100)

I know that Virginia has not lost back-to-back games all season and on paper they should roll. Duke is playing much better and needs a signature win against a ranked opponent to have any chance at making the postseason. Athletically, the Blue Devils can match-up pretty well and are obviously well-coached. They have lost a lot of close games this season. I think they are on the improve. This seems like the trap line of the year so far. Take the hungry host!

4*Georgia +3.5

The Bulldogs are coming off a blowout loss allowing 115 points. Coach and team should learn from that non-effort. I think Georgia matches-up well against Missouri. Take the home dog!

5*Michigan State +5

The Spartans lost to Iowa less than two weeks and head coach Tom Izzo has been great at same-season revenge games in his tremendous career. Michigan State is trying to climb back into the NCAAB Tournament picture and a win today would go a long way in achieving that. The Spartans are 8-2 at home allowing 66.4 points per game. Iowa is 3-4 on the road allowing 80.4 points per game. Take the home dog!

4*George Tech +4

Virginia is coming off a lights out shooting performance from field and beyond the arch. Georgia Tech is averaging about five more points per game and should be pumped-up playing a ranked rival at home. Take the points!

3*Georgia Tech -3

Notre Dame is coming off two very impressive wins, shooting over 50% while covering the spread by a combined 45 points. Georgia Tech shot 32.4% from the field and just 66.7% from the free-throw stripe in losing at Louisville on Monday. The Fighting Irish are 7-34 straight-up as an underdog over the past three seasons. This is a great spot to back the home team!

4*Maryland -1

Purdue is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time this season. They are coming off a big win against Minnesota covering the spread by 16.5 points. Purdue does most of its damage on the road. Maryland should be pumped-up, playing a ranked opponent at home with extra rest. 

3*Buffalo -2

The Bulls are ranked first in total rebounds while the Bobcats are ranked 264th. Ohio is 9-22 SU on the road over the past three seasons and 0-3 SU after winning two in a row this year. Ohio is 0-3 SU off a win against a conference rival. I will swallow the two points with the home team.

4*Ohio State +5

The Buckeyes are coming off a really bad shooting performance from three-point land and the free throw line in a 67-65 loss vs. Purdue. Wisconsin is coming off its best defensive performance allowing just 52 points against Northwestern. Before that, they allowed 54 points in defeating Rutgers. This line seems inflated to me so I'm taking OSU plus the points.

4*LSU -1

Alabama is coming off a 31-point victory. LSU can match-up very well so I will swallow the 1-point with the home team.

4*Richmond -4

The Spiders are coming off a loss in which they shot just 25% for 3-point land at home. Two home games ago, they shot 28% from downtown. They have played a much tougher schedule than Rhode Island and the Spiders average 34% from beyond the stripe. I think they will shoot better against a Rams' defense allowing close to 80 points in road games. Take the Spiders!

5*Notre Dame +2

The Fighting Irish match-up pretty well with this FSU squad as the Seminoles won 85-84 earlier this year. Notre Dame is coming off a poor effort in which head coach Mike Brey called out his team for its performance. The Fighting Irish are 9-1 at home after a loss this season and rank #1 in Assist/Turnover ratio in the nation. Take the hungry host!

4*Toledo Rockets -2.5

The Rockets have the much better stats and they are playing at home. Ball State is a flawed team. Take the hungry host!

4*Oklahoma +2.5

Texas Tech is coming off an 87-57 victory against Iowa State, covering the spread by +25 points.The Sooners have lost three straight and played Texas Tech close in the first meeting. Huge game for Oklahoma. This game will be played in an NBA arena (OKC Thunder) and really like the home team in this spot!

5*Memphis +2.5

Huge game for Memphis as they gout ousted by Houston in last year's AAC tournament. The game was real close. Houston is coming off a 76-43 victory with an ATS margin of 22.5 points. They are in a real letdown spot. I know this game means more for the home team. Take the points!

5*St. John's +2.5

I have this game closer to pick em so let's take the generous 2.5 points. A Red Storm outright win would not shock me. Take the underdog!

4*SMU +2

5*Indiana U -1.5

The Hoosiers have dropped three straight and should be super focused at home in this spot. Purdue defeated Iowa 104-68 on Wednesday. The 36-point victory was the largest in school history over a ranked opponent. Purdue shot 63.1% from the field and 55.9% from 3-point land. Purdue covered the spread by +31.5 points. Classic fade bait. How much energy can Purdue put out considering they are 2-6 on the road this season. Also, the road team is just 3-3 SU when playing with two days of rest this season. The Hoosiers are 9-4 SU when playing with three or more days of rest. Take the hungry host!

5*DePaul +1

Xavier is coming off it's biggest win of their season against Seton Hall on Saturday shooting over 50%. DePaul has a talented team and really needs a victory. DePaul has played better than their conference record suggests. They rank high in rim protection and will be pumped-up at home. Like them here.

4*Pennsylvania +1.5

4*Northern Illinois -3.5

4*Indiana -2

5*Memphis Tigers -3.5

Memphis returns home off a 40-point loss shooting 28.6% and just 9% from downtown. All season lows. It's the worst loss by a ranked team against an unranked opponent since 1993. I would expect a huge bounce back effort against a division rival.