5*New Mexico +4.5

Richard Pitino is 87-48 with New Mexico. They got crushed in the first round against Clemson last season. This team is much better, with an average height ranked 25th compared to 193rd last season. New Mexico boasts a potent offense, averaging 81.2 points per game (26th in the nation) compared to Marquette's 76.9 points. The Golden Eagles have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests. The Mountain West has a net rating of sixth, while the Big East is ranked fourth at Kenpom. New Mexico has the better defense, and the strength of schedule difference is not as significant as you might think. Marquette is 5-11 ATS vs. teams that win >65%.

5*Utah State +5.5

The Aggies are making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and won't be overwhelmed by the big stage. Utah State has won 15 of its last 20 games. The Aggies have a top-20 offense, ranking highly in 2-point shooting (12th at KenPom), three-point percentage (69th), and overall offensive efficiency (17th). UCLA is ranked 193rd in 2-point defense and 130th in 3-point defense. The Aggies play at a faster tempo, which could disrupt UCLA's rhythm, with an 88% Rim and 3 Rate compared to UCLA's 65.3%. UCLA experienced a mid-season slump and was eliminated early in the Big Ten tournament. Utah State played a much tougher Non-conference schedule (No. 139 vs. No. 312). I like the points, and an outright upset would not shock me.

3*Creighton +7

Creighton has already proven they can compete with St. John's, defeating them earlier this season. While St. John's boasts the nation's top defense (KenPom), Creighton's offensive efficiency (ranked 35th nationally) and elite inside scoring (over 60% on two-point attempts, the best in Division I) make them a tough matchup. In their last meeting at Madison Square Garden, St. John's defeated Creighton 79-73 in a tightly contested game. Creighton even held a five-point lead during the second half. The Blue Jays played a much tougher non-conference schedule (No. 46 vs. No. 174) this season. Grab the points.

3*Texas +2.5

Texas is currently led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who ranks 15th nationally with an average of 20.2 points per game. He has scored at least 23 points in five of his last seven games. The Longhorns have made four straight NCAA Tournament appearances and must stack up some wins. Texas has a significant height advantage (No. 64 vs. No. 300) and will seek revenge for an earlier loss. Grab the points.

3*Phoenix Suns +3

The LA Clippers are coming off two consecutive games against their cross-town rivals, the LA Lakers. In their recent home loss to Minnesota, the Phoenix Suns only scored 98 points while committing 22 turnovers. This season, the Suns have a perfect record of 3-0 against the Clippers. Norman Powell scored 63 points in those three matchups with a plus/minus of +24. However, he has been ruled out for this game. I like the home dog in this spot, with or without Bradley Beal. My model has this game at a zero-point spread.

10*Kansas +10.5

In a January matchup, Kansas had a six-point lead in overtime and maintained a six-point advantage in double overtime with 20 seconds remaining. After a series of fluky plays, including a missed free throw by the Jayhawks and a poor inbounds pass, Houston secured a 92-86 victory. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 31 vs. No. 103) and overall schedules (No. 13 vs. No. 28). Kansas also has a height advantage (No. 77 vs. No. 235). Kansas shot only 22% from three-point range in their loss at home to Texas Tech. Positive regression is expected. The Jayhawks believe they can defeat this team, so I love taking the points in this spot.

4*Kentucky +5

Auburn is coming off a dominant 106-76 victory vs. Oklahoma. After playing three straight home games, the Tigers will hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky's home-court advantage at Rupp Arena is significant; the Wildcats have a 14-2 home record this season, losing only to Tennessee and Alabama. The Wildcats are now fully healthy and have the size that can match up with Auburn's skillful bunch. By assigning Amari Williams to guard Johni Broome and Andrew Carr to defend the less offensively threatening Dylan Cardwell, Kentucky should be able to limit Auburn's interior scoring. I like the home dog.

4*Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have lost their last seven true road games. They aim to avenge a 69-61 loss to Minnesota earlier this month after blowing a 10-point lead in the first half. They were without 7-foot center Yanic Konan Niederhauser. He has returned for the last two games, and their defense looks much better. Penn State is coming off a convincing 89-72 win against Nebraska, which snapped a seven-game losing streak. The Nittany Lions average 79.8 points per game, with five players scoring double figures. The Golden Gophers have a 2-8 record against the spread as a home favorite. This line is too high for a Penn State team that can win outright.

3*Houston Rockets -3

The Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the Houston Rockets 127-114 at home on February 6th. At the end of the third quarter, the Rockets were leading 98-92 but outscored 35-16 in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are healthier now and should be motivated after entering the All-Star break with a 3-7 straight-up and a 2-8 against-the-spread records of late. According to my model, the Rockets are favored to win by 4 points.

4*Alabama -1.5

Alabama has won eight straight games and matches up well against Auburn. The Crimson Tide has the size and experience to beat a team of Auburn's caliber. The Coleman Coliseum is a challenging venue for visiting teams, with a seating capacity of 15,316 fans, ranking as the 22nd largest in Division I basketball. Alabama is 26-3 at home over the last two seasons. This will be the Tigers' fifth game in 14 days, while Alabama has played one fewer game during that span. That is a huge factor this time of year. Alabama defeated the then-ranked 4th-seeded Tigers 79-75 at home last year, and this year's team is even stronger.

5*Golden State Warriors +6.5

Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Houston is dealing with significant injuries to key players. Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. are both out for this game, while Alperen Sengun is questionable with a back injury. The Warriors are a veteran team and want to end the “first half” on a high note. Golden State is 2-1 since trading for Jimmy Butler. My model has Houston favored by four points. I really like the road dog in this spot.

4*Oklahoma U +5.5

This will be the Volunteers' first road game in two weeks. They have a record of 1-3 in their last four road tilts. Oklahoma returns home after suffering a 28-point loss at Auburn and should be fired up. The Sooners have been strong at home this season, losing just once at the Lloyd Noble Center. Oklahoma has an explosive offense that ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee has an elite defense; however, they have allowed 78+ points in two of their last three games. The Vols have a colossal revenge game against the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday. Oklahoma averages 84 points at home, while Tennessee averages 67 points on the road. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Denver Nuggets +3 (-105)

The Denver Nuggets are looking for revenge after losing 145-118 at home on Thanksgiving in a nationally televised game. The New York Knicks have scored 143 points in each of their last two games and have a high-profile matchup against the LA Lakers on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost two consecutive games but are undefeated in their previous four games after such defeats this season. Denver has faced the sixth most demanding schedule, while New York ranks twenty-sixth. I like the road dog.

3*Kansas -1

I have been looking forward to this spot all season. Houston dominated Kansas 76-46 in the last game of the 2023-24 regular season. I love backing winning teams that previously lost by 30 or more points. I believe that Houston's statistics are somewhat inflated. The Jayhawks have played the much tougher non-conference (No. 27 vs. No. 100) and overall schedules (No. 7 vs. No. 49). Kansas has a height advantage (No. 84 vs. No. 223) and Division 1 experience (No. 1 vs. No. 51) according to KenPom. Look at who the Cougars have played in true road games: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and UCF.  They are coming off a 70-36 victory vs. Utah, where they had 19 steals and 11 blocks.

3*Houston Rockets +3

The Rockets boast one of the NBA's top defenses this season, ranking 4th in points allowed at 107.8 per game and 5th in field goal defense at 45.1%. This elite defensive unit, anchored by Alperen Sengun's rebounding prowess (10.5 per game) and complemented by strong perimeter defense, matches up well against Cleveland's offense. He also chips in 19.2 points per game on a 48.9 FG percentage. Cleveland will be without star forward Evan Mobley, who is OUT with a calf injury. This is a tough travel spot for the Cavs, having played three road games than one home game and now hitting the road again to a different time zone. Houston ranks 6th in strength of schedule, while Cleveland is ranked 20th. Grab the points.

3*Alabama +2.5

Alabama has one of the most potent offenses in college basketball, averaging 91.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide also excels in rebounding, ranking as the second-best rebounding team in the nation with an average of 45.4 rebounds per game, compared to Kentucky's average of 40.9 rebounds per game. This advantage on the glass could lead to extra possessions and second-chance points, helping Alabama stay competitive throughout the game. While Kentucky has a potent offense, their defense has been a weakness this season. The Wildcats rank just 75th in defensive efficiency. Alabama is 3-0 after a loss this season. Kentucky is coming off two big conference wins. I like the road dog.

3*Dallas Mavericks +4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an emotional comeback against the Nuggets at high altitude in game seven. Although Minnesota won 3 out of 4 games against Dallas this season, it's important to note that all four games were played before the trade deadline, after which Dallas significantly improved their roster. Minnesota is ranked 8th in average height, while Dallas is close behind at 13th. I like the Mavericks plus the points in game one!

4*Minnesota Timberwolves -2

The Minnesota Timberwolves are heading home after losing three consecutive games for the first time this season. Denver has shot at least 54% from the field in all three victories. Minnesota will be motivated, as the Nuggets have won both games in Minnesota. Closeout games are challenging on the road. I believe Minnesota will extend this series with a strong performance at Target Center.

3*Denver Nuggets -4

Both teams will be playing their fifth game within ten days. The high altitude of the venue will likely benefit the defending champions, especially since they will only have one day of rest. The Nuggets have improved their efficiency, shooting over 50% from the field in their last two victories. Mike Malone and his team have made the necessary offensive adjustments. Denver should be highly focused, given the outcome of the first two games in their home arena.

3*Indiana Pacers +5

After dropping the first game, the Indiana Pacers bounced back with a vengeance in game two against the Milwaukee Bucks in round one. The New York Knicks played three starters for over 40 minutes on Tuesday, but they need more depth and could be playing with "heavy" legs. The road team has a great chance to win outright, so let's take the points!

3*Philadelphia 76ers -3

The New York Knicks had three players (Brunson, Hart, and Anunoby) log over 50 minutes in game five. Closeout games are extremely difficult on the road, and the 76ers will have the added benefit of feeding off energy from the home crowd. Joel Embiid had just 19 points on 7-for-19 shooting, and Philadelphia was -5.5 in that crucial game three, which they won by 9 points. I think there will be a game seven at MSG on Saturday.

3*Orlando Magic -1.5

This will be the Cavs' first road game in just over two weeks, and they have lost 8 of their past ten games away from home. We all know that role players perform better at home, and the Magic went 29-11 at Kia Center. Their road/home splits are very telling, as they rank fifth in point differential at home (+7.8) compared to -3.8 in away games. The sold-out crowd of 18,846 will be fired up for Orlando's first home playoff game since 2019. Play the Magic in this must win game!

3*New York Knicks +3

The New York Knicks have a record of 5-3 after losing two or more games in a row. They have managed to defeat the Miami Heat in their two meetings, even though they were eliminated by the Heat in the playoffs last year. The line for this game seems high, especially considering that the Knicks have a point differential of +4.7, while the Heat's point differential is +1.4 this season. Furthermore, the Heat will play with a roster suffering from injuries and have a big revenge game against Philadelphia on deck. I will gladly bet on the Knicks as the road underdogs in this spot!

2*Illinois +8.5

UConn had only three losses during the season. Two of these losses were against Creighton and Kansas, who had a size advantage over UConn. However, Illinois is also a team with a size advantage, ranked 8th at Kenpom. The Fighting Illini have a lot of experience, ranking 11th, and have played a tougher schedule (No. 24 vs. No. 37). The Huskies have a +12.3 point differential in road/neutral site games. In comparison, Illinois has a +7.5 point differential. The Huskies have held their opponents to 58 or fewer points in four straight games. I anticipate some negative regression. Take the underdog!

3*Illinois +2

The Fighting Illini currently has the top-ranked offense at Kenpom. While Iowa State is known for its excellent defense, they have mostly played against weaker opponents in non-conference games, ranking 345th in difficulty. Illinois has a more experienced team as they rank 11th in Division 1 experience, compared to Iowa State's ranking of 124th. Illinois also has a better free throw percentage, ranked 85th, whereas Iowa State ranks 293. Teams with size may challenge the Cyclones as Illinois ranks 8th in average team height, while Iowa State ranks 100th. Furthermore, Illinois is a much better rebounding team, ranking 6th compared to Iowa State's ranking of 238th. I will gladly take the points in this spot!

3*Clemson +4.5

The Baylor Bears have faced the third most challenging schedule overall, but they ranked 101st against non-conference opponents. On the other hand, the Clemson Tigers played the 33rd toughest schedule and were 69th in terms of non-conference opponents. Clemson has a higher ranking in free throw percentage (9 vs. 103), rebounds per game (78 vs. 198), turnovers (53 vs. 175), and blocks (83 vs. 198). According to advanced analytics, the Tigers have a better overall defense. We must take the points in this spot!

5*Utah State +4.5

Utah State faced a much more challenging non-conference schedule compared to TCU. However, both teams maintain a close point differential, with Utah State having a +7.4 and TCU having a +8.0 this season. Utah State is a skilled team that excels at scoring inside (ranked 12th in 2-point FG%) and defending three-point shots (ranked third in the nation), according to Kenpom. The team is led by Danny Sprinkle, known for his excellent coaching skills, especially with extra time to prepare. The Aggies have demonstrated their ability to bounce back this season, going 4-1 after a loss. Utah State is 10-1 SU when playing with five or six days of rest since 2021, including 4-0 this season. Take the points in this upset maker!

4*Drake Bulldogs -1.5

Four different Bulldogs players have made 42 or more 3-point field goals, with Tucker DeVries leading the pack with 84 and Atin Wright following closely with 60. Drake has a solid 37% 3-point shooting average and hits almost nine 3-pointers per game. DeVries is the best player in the MVC, averaging nearly 22 points per game and leading Drake in rebounding, assists, and steals. He is a big-time NBA prospect. Washington State has lost nine road/neutral site games, including Arizona State (129th at Kenpom) and California (123rd). The Cougars rank 268th in free throw percentage, while Drake ranks 38th. Washington State shouldn't be seeded this high. I like the Bulldogs to advance!

3*Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones were one of three teams to defeat the Houston Cougars, winning 57-53 in Ames, Iowa, on January 9th. Houston returned the favor to beat Iowa State 73-65 at home on February 19th. I am a big fan of Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger. Iowa State is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS avenging a road loss. Houston is 1-6 ATS after scoring 80 or more points this season. The Cougars have 6 ½ healthy players after the injury to J'wan Roberts. Iowa State is 5-0 all-time in Big 12 Championship games. The total implies a lower-scoring contest, so let's take the points with the Cyclones.

3*St. John's +9.5

Connecticut has won both matchups against the Red Storm this season. Rick Pitino is known for his coaching abilities when seeking double revenge in the postseason. The Huskies have already secured a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, while Johnny is playing to get a higher seed. Pitino's crew can keep this game within the number. I was hoping for 10 points, but that's not happening.

4*St. Johns -3.5

After a humiliating loss to Seton Hall at home, where they blew a 19-point lead, the St. Johns Red Storm are on a 5-game win streak, thanks to Rick Pitino's leadership. Pitino has an excellent track record when seeking double same-season revenge and has proven to be outstanding in the postseason. St. Johns faced a more challenging non-conference schedule than their opponent (No. 148 vs. No. 241) and will play at Madison Square Garden, which has a home-court advantage of 3.9 points. I like the Red Storm in this spot!

4*Washington U +3

On March 5th, the USC Trojans won against Washington with a score of 82-75, even though they were 4.5-point underdogs. During the game, Washington allowed USC to shoot 54% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc. The Huskies ranked fourth in D-1 experience and will likely learn from this loss. All five starters on the team are seniors, and Mike Hopkins is a great head coach who achieved 20+ wins in 2018 and 2019. I make this point spread closer to zero. Play Washington U!

3*Houston Rockets +6.5

The Sacramento Kings have scored 130+ points in their last two games. Houston is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency while the Kings are ranked 22nd. The Kings could be looking ahead to their games against Milwaukee and the LA Lakers on Tuesday & Wednesday respectively. Sacramento is allowing 121 points per game at home. I think the Rockets can keep this within the number and possibly win outright!

4*Mississippi State -4

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are determined to win their 20th game on Senior Day and want to avenge their previous 68-62 loss against South Carolina on January 6th. Despite suffering three consecutive losses, the Bulldogs have the better defense (No. 18 vs. No. 40) at Kenpom. The Gamecocks rank 307th in turnover differential, and betting against teams like them in their last road games has been profitable. Since South Carolina has no chance of winning the SEC, they may lack motivation. The Bulldogs are 3-1 after dropping two or more games in a row this season, and the Humphrey Coliseum ranks 9th in home-court advantage. I like the home team in this spot!

3*New York Knicks +6.5

Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players. The Cavs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, while the Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven. After scoring under 100 points in consecutive games, New York is due for some positive scoring regression. Cleveland has a big revenge game against Boston on Tuesday. I like the points with the road team!

3*Wisconsin -1.5

Illinois hit the road after winning against Minnesota, 105-97 on Wednesday. The Fighting Illini had a shooting percentage of 55% on two-point shots and 70% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin lost at Indiana 74-70 on Tuesday, shooting just under 31% from three-point land. Despite recording 0 block shots, the Badgers had ten steals. Illinois is ranked 359th in creating turnovers and has a big revenge game against Purdue on deck. Their overall strength of schedule is ranked 46th, but they rank 247th in non-conference action. Wisconsin has played the fifth most demanding schedule overall, including 34th in non-conference games. The Badgers have a home record of 13-2 at Kohl Center this season, losing only to Tennessee and Purdue.

4*Kentucky -2

Alabama has scored 307 points in their last three games and now hit the road for the first time in two weeks. Kentucky can score with the best of the SEC and return home after a one-point loss in the final seconds at LSU. The Wildcats led 42-27 with 19:11 left in the second half and will be super focused in front of the 26th-ranked home-court advantage in the nation. The Rupp Arena holds 20,500, the sixth largest in Division 1. The Wildcats will be playing with revenge after the Crimson Tide won 78-52 last season, their largest margin of victory against Kentucky in school history. The Wildcats are 6-1 after a loss this season.

5*South Florida +6

South Florida's success this season has been built on their solid defense, which has limited opponents to 42.1 percent shooting from the floor and 31.1 percent from beyond the arc. However, they had a disappointing game on Wednesday night, with 15 turnovers, which did not please head coach Abdur-Rahim. The last time these two teams played each other was back in 2019, which should benefit the home team. Interestingly, fading ranked teams in the game immediately following their 20th win has proved profitable. As someone who values good defense, I will happily take the points with the underdog, especially since the game is sold out at the Yuengling Center.

4*Colorado State +6

San Diego State is determined to avenge their road loss against Colorado State. Hence, the majority of the public is rooting for the home team. However, the current line is exaggerated by at least two points. The Rams rank eighth in terms of effective FG percentage on offense, while the Aztecs are ranked 145th. Both teams are placed outside the top 230 in adjusted tempo, indicating a greater likelihood of a low-scoring, closely contested game. I like the road dog!

4*Washington U +8.5

Oregon upset Washington 76-74 as 4.5-point road underdogs on January 4th. The Huskies matchup quite well against the Ducks. This line is now inflated after opening at six. We are getting great value on the underdog. Speaking of underdogs, they are 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings. Play Washington in this major overlay!

5*St. Joe's +3

St. Joseph's is returning all five starters from last year's team. Last year's squad was eliminated by Dayton in the first round of the Atlantic-10 tournament, losing 60-54 as 10.5-point underdogs. This defeat ended the Hawks' season. Additionally, Dayton will have a chance to avenge their loss against VCU in the A-10 title game from last season on Friday. The Flyers are facing a tough look-ahead spot in this double revenge angle. I like the home team in this spot!

4*St. Johns +4

In December, the Connecticut Huskies won against St. Johns with a score of 69-65. They were 11-point home favorites. The Red Storm has been eagerly waiting for a rematch ever since. They have a great chance to defeat the top-ranked team in the nation. St. Johns has played the tenth most challenging schedule, while Uconn is ranked 51st in the strength of schedule. The Red Storm are 8-2 at home and have a higher consistency per possession, considering turnovers, steals, blocks, rebounds, and points. These key metrics are averaged together, and the Red Storm ranks higher than the Huskies. I like the home team quite a bit!

3*Ohio State +4

The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost 12 straight road games and are winless in conference away games. However, I still rate the Buckeyes higher, as they have played a tougher non-conference schedule and rank higher in consistency. With the Cornhuskers not at full strength, this is a great spot to back a motivated Ohio State squad.

4*St. John's +1

The St. John's Red Storm return home after two consecutive road losses where they only made 9 of 32 three-point shots. This is lower than their season's average of 34.2%. On the other hand, the Golden Eagles have a negative point differential of minus-1.3 in away games, while St. Johns has a point differential of plus-17 in their home games. Marquette will play just their third road game in over a month. St. John’s ranks significantly higher in rebounds and blocked shots. In the quarter-finals of the Big East tournament last March, Marquette eliminated the Red Storm with a score of 72-70. The home team looks to improve their record to 5-0 this season after allowing 80 or more points in this colossal revenge spot.

3*Iowa State +3

The Cyclones are gearing up to face the 11th-ranked Sooners in Norman, OK. They managed to pull off a victory last year as 3.5-point underdogs. This year's Iowa State team has the potential to win the game outright once again. Even when playing at home, I would only make Oklahoma 1-point favorites in this matchup. The road team is ranked higher on offense and defense, according to KenPom.

3*Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5

The Thunder are younger and quicker than the Warriors right now. They are 2-1 vs. Golden State this season. OKC is ranked sixth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency, while the Warriors are ranked 14th in offense and 14th on defense. Golden State is 2-8 straight-up as an underdog, while OKC is 8-3 SU and 8-3 ATS as chalk this season. I like the home team in this spot!

4*LA Lakers +6

The Lakers function better with extended rest, and this team has the best record since the trade deadline. The Nuggets did not play this new version of the Lakers. All four meetings were before the trade deadline. LA is ranked No. 8 in defense efficiency, while Denver is ranked No. 15 this season. I like the Lakers in this spot!

4*Phoenix Suns -4

The Suns are 30-14 at home, with a +5 point differential. Denver is 20-23 on the road, with a -3 point differential. Chris Paul is out and that's reflected in the line. Cameron Payne has proven his ability to step up in clutch moments. During the Suns' 2021 playoff run, he filled in admirably for an injured Chris Paul, notching a career-high 29 points in a Game 2 victory over the LA Clippers during the Western Conference Finals. Take the hungry host!

Kentucky Derby (May 6th)

We like #6 Kingsbarns (12/1) to win, place, and show!

Owns the fastest early and middle pace speed figures in the race. He won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby from Post 6. His last work (4f in 48.4) was off the charts (33/150) at Churchill Downs. The progeny of Uncle Mo have won 20% in all dirt routes over the past 5 years and have hit-the-board 50% as well. The track is expected to be on the wet side, which should help his front-running style.

3*Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Nuggets have extra motivation after getting swept by Phoenix in this round last season. The Suns play their starters heavy minutes and that doesn't bode well at high-altitude. Kevin Durant did not play in Denver this season. I like this cohesive Nuggets' team that has been playing together all season. Take the hungry host!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -4

Memphis shot poorly in game four and still almost won the game. I think the Lakers are a tired team and closeout games are tough to win on the road. The earlier start time favors the Grizzlies. Take the home team in this spot!

4*Golden State Warriors +1

The extra time between games should benefit the Warriors in game one. Since 2013, NBA defending champions are 8-0 SU in their first playoff game. The Raptors and Lakers didn't make the playoffs after winning the Title. The Warriors should be super focused after not playing great on the road during the regular season. Andrew Wiggins is back and ready to go. Take Golden State!

2*Chicago Bulls +5.5

The Bulls went 3-0 vs. Miami this season and were short-handed in one of those games. Miami is 9-24 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. That is very telling. The Bulls and Hawks are built similarly, and Atlanta had very little trouble against Miami's older roster. This line seems a tad inflated. Take the road dog!

3*Atlanta Hawks +5.5

The Heat eliminated Atlanta from the playoffs in five games last season. I think this Hawks' team has more talent than last year's squad. The Heat are "nicked" up for this play-in game. Miami is 19-36 ATS as a favorite and 2-9 ATS after a win by 10 or more points. I think the Hawks will be extremely motivated in this spot. Take the underdog!

4*Philadelphia 76ers -2

The Celtics hit the road for the last time this season after having three days off. Boston has a revenge game against Toronto on Wednesday. Doc Rivers called out his team after their non-effort against the Bucks. Philadelphia is 0-3 vs. the Celtics and should be super motivated at home. Jaylen Brown has a 50% chance of playing after injuring his back. Robert Williams is Out for Boston. Take the hungry host!

3*Toronto Raptors +5.5

Philadelphia shot 47.2% from 3-point land in their win against Dallas on Wednesday. This will be the 76ers' second game after playing in Denver. Teams are cashing under 40% in this role. Tobias Harris is doubtful. He's only missed six games this season. Toronto is 10-4 ATS playing with two days of rest. The 76ers are just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS before playing the Milwaukee Bucks over the last two seasons. Take the road dog!

5*San Diego State +7.5

Both teams play real defense. The Aztecs' defense is elite which is why the total is relatively low. All the pressure is on Alabama. I try to keep it simple in the Sweet 16. I have this game power-rated closer to five points. I see value with the Aztecs in this spot. I love their coach too. Take the underdog in this spot! 

4*Auburn +5.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fifth game in eight days. A far cry from the regular season where teams get plenty of days to rest and prepare. I think the Tigers matchup quite well and that was before Marcus Sasser's groin injury. He's going to play, but won't be 100% healthy. Auburn played a much tougher schedule this season. I'm taking the points with the Tigers in this spot!

5*Michigan State -1.5

The Spartans are ranked No. 2 in three-point percentage. They shot 18.8% from beyond the arc in their loss against Ohio State. USC will be playing this game on a body clock of 9:15 AM. We just sprung forward too! The Trojans are a poor rebounding team that commits turnovers on 17.6% of their possessions. A Tom Izzo coached team with one week to prepare seems like the right side. Take the Spartans!

5*Boise State +2

The Broncos' head coach (Leon Rice) was a longtime assistant at Gonzaga and the players execute his system to perfection. Boise State holds opponents to just 30% from beyond-the-arc and has a Top 20 defense two years in a row. Max Rice (Leon's son) has exploded this year, averaging 14 points per game on 42% from 3-point land. He's also shooting 87.7% from the free-throw line. Northwestern is ranked outside the Top 250 nationally in points per game (290), three point percentage (292), and field-goal percentage (341). The Broncos are 5-2 straight-up in neutral court games, while Northwestern is just 1-2 SU this season. I like the Broncos quite a bit in this spot!

3*Utah State +2

The Aggies will be playing with triple revenge after San Diego State defeated Utah State twice this season. The Aztecs eliminated Utah State from the conference tournament last season as well. I think this line is a trap. The Aggies own a +14.6 point differential over their past five games, while the Aztecs are +6.2 in their past five tilts. San Diego State owns a negative point differential this season when playing without rest. They expended a lot of energy on defense holding San Jose State to 49 points. I like the Aggies in a mild upset!

3*Texas A&M -1

The Aggies are on a mission after returning four starters from a 27-win team last season. Texas A&M wasn't ranked in the preseason Top 25. The Aggies went 15-3 in conference games with a +8.2 point differential this season. Arkansas went 9-10 in conference games with a +1.6 point differential. I like Texas A&M in this spot! 

3*St. Johns -5

Teams have split two meetings this season. I was more impressed with the Red Storm and they can't get to play this revenge game at home. Butler is 6-13 SU and 8-11 ATS vs. losing teams this season. I like the home team in this spot!

2*USC Trojans +3

The Trojans need a signature win against a ranked team to solidify a berth in the Big Dance. USC shot 36.9% from the field and 23.5% (4-for-17) from 3-point land in the first meeting. Arizona shot 50% (12-for-24) from beyond the arc. USC is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS since that loss back on January 19th. These teams have similar stats in conference games with USC owning the better defense. Light play on the home underdog!

4*Boise State PK

The Broncos should be fired-up in their final regular season home game. Boise State has revenge from a 20-point loss back on February 3rd. They shot 37% from the field and 11% from three-point land (2-for-18). I think the Broncos will be a tough match-up and SD State will be playing their first back-to-back road games with the longest travel of the season. The Aztecs have a big home game on deck vs Wyoming. Max Rice has followed a poor shooting game (4-for-18) with a stellar performance this season. Boise State is 4-1 straight-up after a loss and extra pissed off after going down in OT. Take the Broncos!

4*Kentucky Wildcats +2

The Wildcats already defeated a much healthier Tennessee squad last month. The Wildcats can tie the Volunteers for third place in the conference with a victory. Tennessee is coming off an emotional high-energy win against the No. 1 team in the nation (Alabama). I like the home underdog in this spot!

3*Northwestern +3

The Wildcats already defeated Indiana when the Hoosiers were much healthier. Northwestern has won three in a row and plays really good defense at home. Lets fade Indiana playing in back-to-back road games! 

3*St. Johns +1.5

The Red Storm have dropped five in a row, and should be super focused playing a team they easily defeated last month. The Bulldogs are 0-7 SU when playing with revenge this season. St. Johns is 6-1 SU against losing teams, while Butler is 4-11 SU against winning teams. Light play on the road team!

3*Virginia Tech PK

Virginia will be playing its second straight road game. Virginia Tech returns home after a poor defensive effort with a chance to get a signature win against an in-state rival. The Hokies have been solid at home in revenge games vs. ranked teams. Take V. Tech!

3*Nevada +3.5

The Wolf Pack will be playing with revenge and should be focused facing a ranked team at home. Nevada is 5-0 SU after a loss this season. San Diego State is ranked No. 122 in free-throw percentage, while Nevada is ranked No. 4 this season. This line seems inflated to me. Take the points in this late night match-up!

4*Syracuse +5.5

I like playing on home underdogs after their opponent allowed less than 60 points and playing with one day of rest. Virginia is 3-5 ATS after allowing less than 60 points. Virginia has won seven in a row which kicked off against the Orange three weeks ago. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS revenging a road loss this season, and 3-0 ATS after allowing 80+ points. Joe Girard had one of his worst shooting performances of the season on Saturday and should bounce back with a big effort tonight. Take the hungry host!

3*Penn State +4.5

Michigan allowed just 46 points in defeating Maryland on New Year's Day, while covering the spread by 34 points. Penn State has the better defense and is 4-0 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Michigan has a big game against Michigan State on deck. I like the road dog in this spot!

3*Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Knicks are coming off two straight games allowing less than 90 points. They are 6-10 straight-up in this role of late. The Hornets were competitive against the Knicks in their only meeting this season. I think they match-up quite well so lets take the home team in this spot!

3*Oklahoma State -5.5

I think the Cowboys are by far the more talented team. I have Oklahoma State nine points better on a neutral court. UCF is coming off a game where they allowed just 37 points. This will be a completely different experience in the Bahamas. Lay it! 

3*Washington Wizards -4.5

Third road game in four nights for the Thunder. The Wizards get Bradley Beal back which should only help a team that has won four in a row. Washington plays much better defense so lets swallow the points in this spot!

5*Dallas Mavericks -2

The Warriors should incur a natural letdown after that second half comeback win on Friday night. The Mavs bench should be much better at home. Dallas should be super focused in this spot!

4*Dallas Mavericks +1

The Suns shot the lights out (62.5%) from the field in Wednesday's victory. Phoenix is just 1-3 in game No. 3 of NBA postseason series of late. Dallas should be able to get better bench production at home. I think just one day rest instead of two benefits Dallas more. Take the hungry host!

3*Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are now 4-3 vs. Utah this season, with two losses by 7 points combined. I think the Mavs will play much better in Luka's second game back. I don't think the Jazz with get 42 free throw attempts either. Dallas 16-4 this season after scoring less than 100 points. Take the home team!

5*Atlanta Hawks +1.5

The Hawks return home after committing 37 turnovers in both games combined at Miami. I have no problems fading Butler and the Heat after two very impressive wins at home. The Hawks play much better at home and would expect a top-notch effort in this spot. Take the hungry host!

4*Toronto Raptors +4.5

Toronto defeated the 76ers 119-114 as 3.5-point home dogs on April 7th. The game was telling in my opinion. The Raptors were able to switch every pick & roll with their length. Philadelphia shot 52.8% from 3-point land and still lost. Don't fall asleep on this Raptors' team. Toronto owns a +2.3 point differential, while Philadelphia is +2.6 this season. Toronto has really good team chemistry and I love their head coach. Take the Raptors (plus the points) and for the series at a nice price.

5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*Golden State Warriors +2

The Utah Jazz were on the road for six games, home for one game, and now hit the road again. Not an ideal spot, especially playing four games in six days. They shot 51% in their win over the LA Lakers. Big revenge game. The Warriors lost 111-85 on Feb. 9th in Utah. Golden State played really well against the Suns. No Steph. No problem tonight. Take the hungry host!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*Dallas Mavs -2.5

The Nets scored 150 points on Tuesday and will now play without K. Irving who scored 60 points. This will be the Nets' third game in four days. New Jersey is 2-9 SU when playing back-to-back games this year. Dallas is 13-4 SU after scoring 100 points or less and 6-3 SU when playing with two days of rest. Take the toad team!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

4*Charlotte Hornets +7.5

Both teams come in off losses to the New Jersey Nets. The Celtics beat the Nets 126-120 on Sunday, thanks in part to J. Tatum posting a season-high 54 points. The Hornets lost 132-121 as K. Irving posted 50 points in Tuesday's win. Charlotte has allowed two players score 50+ points in two straight games. Boston is just 2-5 ATS when playing with two days rest. This is a must play on the home team plus the points.

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The T-wolves have nobody on their roster that can stop Ja Morant. Very few teams do. The Grizzlies are 18-9 SU vs. winning teams while Minnesota is 12-17 this season. I like Memphis to get another win on the road!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

5*Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Nets will be getting some reinforcements, looking to end its 11-game losing skid. The Kings shot a season-high 56.6% from the field in their victory over Washington. I really like the Nets in this spot who are extremely motivated tonight.  

4*Washington Wizards +3

The Kings are coming off a two-game series against Minnesota. I love fading losing teams on the road after scoring 130+ points. Sacramento is 1-8 SU after scoring 130+ points, including 0-4 this season. The Wizards should have a lot of confidence after defeating the Nets. Take the home team!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.