5*Oklahoma State -3

The Cowboys committed five turnovers in their 10-point upset loss against Texas Tech two weeks ago. OK State will be playing with rest & revenge from last year's 35-31 loss, despite outgaining Baylor 513-402. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Baylor checks in with a sub-par 5-10 SU record against winning teams over the past three years. I think Oklahoma State will bounce back, considering they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival of late. Baylor will be unbeaten no more. Take the hungry host!

4*Boston College +3.5

This line opened NC State -1 and the public is backing the road team by nearly an 85% clip. Boston College will be without their starting QB (Anthony Brown), but backup Dennis Grosel is more than ready. I like the fact that NC State has never played against Grosel. They don't really know what to expect. Boston College is coming off a BYE and the Wolfpack have two big revenge games on deck. Seems like a flat spot for the road team so I'm taking BC plus the points.

4*Denver Broncos -2

This will be the Titans' third road game in four weeks and at high altitude. Tough. The Broncos are ranked 5th in run defense while the Titans are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is ranked 31st in pass protection. Look for the Broncos to pick up lots of sacks. Joe Flacco's QBR is at 59.9 which ranks 11th. Marcus Mariota QBR is 37.1 which ranks 27th. This seems like a great spot for the Broncos to pick up another win after upsetting the Chargers last week. Swallow the short number and take Denver! 

4*LA Rams -3

The Rams have lost two in a row and will now have 10 days to prepare. The 49ers are coming off a big win on MNF and will have to play on a short week for the first time in a long time. The look ahead line on this game had the Rams favored by 5.5 points. San Francisco will have to play this game without FB Kyle Juszczyk who is a big key to their offense. When he left game, the 49ers offense struggled mightily. There is going to be an adjustment period. Take the Rams to get back on track!

4*Iowa +3.5

Iowa played Michigan tough despite QB Nate Stanley's three interceptions. I love the Hawkeyes to bounce back at home in prime time. Penn State has played a weak schedule and almost lost to Pittsburgh. Iowa has been great as a home underdog, cashing just under 71% over the past decade. In a battle of two top 5 defensive teams, I'll take the Hawkeyes in this spot.

4*Nevada -2

It's been two weeks since Nevada suffered a 51 point home loss to Hawaii. This is a great spot to bounce back. San Jose State has been winning with smoke & mirrors (+9 turnovers) and this will be their third road game in 21 days. Nevada is a stellar 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival while San Jose State is 1-9 SU against winning teams of late. I also like the QB change to Malik Henry. Take the hungry host!

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Broncos are one of the best 0-4 teams in quite some time. They are this close to being 2-2. Lets start up front where the Broncos O'line is ranked 7 spots higher than the Chargers thru the first four weeks. Joe Flacco is ranked 9th in QBR with a 63.3 mark while Rivers is ranked 14th with a 55.5 QBR. The Broncos defense holds QB's to a 97.3 passer rating while the Chargers allow QB's throw for a 111 passer rating which ranks 27th. They really miss Derwin James on the back end. The Chargers just signed a new kicker and punter this week. Even with Melvin Gordon returning, I like the Broncos to be much improved at stopping the run after allowing 269 rushing yards to the Jags. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage. The road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the past 18 meetings. More of the same! 

5*New Orleans Saints -3

The Bucs come in feeling "fat" and happy after its big outright upset over the Rams last week. We had the Bucs as a 5* best bet. Speaking of big upsets, the Bucs came into the Super Dome last year in Week 1 and won as 10-point dogs. The Saints remember that game big time. This will be the second of back-to-back road games after a West Coast trip. Tough. Tampa Bay has scored 86 points in their past two games and now must play a road game in a dome. Tough. The Saints special teams is ranked #1 while the Bucs special teams is ranked 29th at Football Outsiders. The Saints defeated the Cowboys last week despite not scoring a TD. This is a great spot for the home team. I think this line should be closer to 4.5 points. Take New Orleans!

5*Georgia Tech +10.5

This is a great spot for the home team. North Carolina is coming off a very emotional 1-point loss (went for 2-point conversion) against Clemson as nearly a 3 TD underdog. In fact, the Tarheels have played five straight one possession games. Ga Tech is coming off a misleading loss as they committed 3 turnovers inside Temple's 35-yard line. Temple also had a 74-yard fumble return touchdown. I have a feeling Ga Tech's offense will get going and keep this game within one score. Take the hungry host! 

4*Ball State +5.5

This is a big revenge game for the visitors with two weeks to prepare. Ball State lost 24-16 despite outgaining the Huskies 391-370 last season. Northern Illinois is allowing 7.5 yards per play while Ball State is allowing 5.9 yards per play. Northern Illinois is 10-0 SU against Ball State in the past 10 meetings which is why the public is pounding the home team. This is a game Ball State has circled on its schedule. I think this line should be closer to 4 points. Take the road dog! 

4*Tampa Bay Bucs +10

The Bucs have a sneaky good offense and defense. Tampa Bay is ranked #7 at Football Outsiders in total defense. It's a small sample size but after three games this team is much improved. I was shocked to see that Winston owns a better QBR (38.3) over Goff (38.1). Tampa Bay is ranked #3 against the run while the Rams are ranked 21st at Football Outsiders. In fact, Ronald Jones is the 8th most efficient running back while Todd Gurley is ranked 13th. The LA Rams have a road game at Seattle on Thursday. Mentally, this is a flat spot for the Rams. Bruce Arians has been great ATS after a straight-up loss, and he's taking a beating from the media for his intentional delay of game penalty. Tampa Bay outgained the Giants 499-384 in last week's setback. The Bucs will give a great effort. I like the road dog in this one!

4*Miami Dolphins +16.5

This line is way too high. I was thinking more like 14. The Chargers will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity that is south Florida. They are 1-8 ATS in their past nine tries in this role. I watched the entire Dolphins/Cowboys game last week and the Dolphins played much better than the final score indicates. They had a great chance to cover. While the organization may be tanking, the Dolphins' players are not. These are professionals that want to play hard because everything goes on tape in the NFL. Future jobs are on the line. Another handicap is the fact the Dolphins have a BYE next week. There has been six teams getting double digits before their BYE week and all six teams covered the spread. Take the hungry host against a Chargers team that is overrated in my opinion. 

5*Baylor Bears +3

This will be Iowa State's first road game of the season. Baylor has revenge on their minds after losing 28-14 despite outgaining the Cyclones 505-357 last season. Baylor is allowing 3.7 yards per play (6th) on defense while Iowa State is allowing 4.7 yards per play (32nd). College Football teams that scored 70 or more points are cashing 22% as road chalk the very next week. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS after a win of 20+ points. Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their past eight meetings at home. More of the same!

5*Boston College +7

Two weeks ago, BC got smoked 48-24 as 18.5-point home chalk. I think they learned their lesson and have been waiting to play at home ever since that game ended. I love playing BC in conference games as the Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in this role of late. I think the line should be closer to 5, so I'm taking the points with Boston College.

5*Toledo +2.5

This is a tough travel spot for BYU after playing four straight Power 5 schools. My super computer agrees and calls for a 2-point win by the Rockets. The Cougars have been outgained by 290 yards in their four games combined. The wrong team is favored. Take the points with the better defense at home!

10*Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The San Francisco 49ers return home all fat and happy after two straight road wins and covers. They have been away from home for 9 days as they stayed on the East Coast after winning at Tampa Bay. The Steelers showed me a lot in losing by 2 points after Big Ben went down. We get a fired-up team getting 7 points, against a team that is a tad overrated after defeating two teams that are 1-3 combined. Mason Rudolph has a full week to prepare as the starting QB. The team should be energized after trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick who is an upgrade at Safety. Love the Steelers in this upset maker!

4*Arizona Cardinals +2.5

Cam Newton is in a walking boot. I'm hearing he's very doubtful to play this week. That means undrafted free agent Kyle Allen will get the start. Ugh. Even if Cam plays he won't be able to run the offense the way Ron Rivera and company are accustomed to. No run-pass option for sure which use to be the staple of the Panthers' offense. Arizona is playing extremely hard and this line will reopen at Arizona -1.5 so get down ASAP.

5*Indianapolis Colts -1.5

The public is hammering the Falcons based on what they saw last Sunday night on NBC. The Falcons were very fortunate to win that game. Atlanta is much better at home than on the road. Indianapolis has covered two straight road games to start the season after everyone was giving up on them after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. The Colts are well-coached and have lots of talent on both sides of the ball including a Top 5 offensive line. The Falcons have cluster injuries (at least two starters out) on their offensive line which came into the season ranked #22 by Pro Football Focus. The Colts defense has recorded eight sacks while the Falcons O'line has allowed five sacks. The Colts went 0-2 at home during the preseason despite outgaining both opponents by a combined 215 yards. The Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard is questionable with a concussion. I like the Colts with or without Darius minus the small number!

5*Mississippi Rebels -2

This is a huge spot for the home team knowing they play Alabama next week. The Rebels catch California off a phony 23-17 win against North Texas as 14-point home chalk. California was outgained by 51 yards and have been outgained in two straight. This is the first road game for the Golden Bears outside the Pacific time zone. California has to play a 9:00 AM body clock game in the heat and humidity down south. The Golden Bears play Arizona State next week. Ole Miss has the the talent to win this game by 3 or more points! 

5*Northwestern +9.5

The total is around 38 points. I will almost always take the underdog if getting more than a TD with any NCAAF total below 43 points. The underdog in Northwestern games is on a 12-1-1 run. Michigan State was upset last week and the public is betting on a bounce back effort. This line opened at 6.5 points. Michigan State is 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as a favorite. At this current number, I'm take the home underdog in this spot.

4*Green Bay Packers -3 (+100)

Minnesota is 3-0-1 SU against Green Bay the past two seasons. I love playing on new head coaches in home division games if the line is right. At -3 no juice this looks good. The Packers will have 10 days to prepare for this rivalry game. Green Bay has the significantly better offensive line ranking 17 spots higher at PFF. I like the Packers in this spot!

4*Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-119)

I love playing on most NFL teams returning home off a blowout loss. Seattle will be playing a 10:00 AM body clock game against a team that is pissed off. Advantage Pittsburgh. The Seahawks escaped with a 1-point win despite getting outgained 429-233 against the Bengals. The Steelers offensive line is ranked #3 while the Seahawks O'line is ranked #23 at PFF. Take the hungry host!

4*Virginia -7

This is the first time that Virginia is favored to win against FSU. Rightfully so in my opinion. Two programs heading in opposite directions. FSU is coming off an emotional OT win last week. Virginia has this game circled all Summer. A chance to beat up on a former powerhouse. The Cavs won easily (despite -3 turnovers) in last week's blowout win over William & Mary. If Virginia was a stock they would be a strong buy right now. Finally, my super computer has Virginia covering 7 points rather easily. Still, just a 4 unit play.

10*Air Force +5

The Buffalos are off two a 2-0 start after that 17-point comeback win in OT against Nebraska. That was the only time they led in the game. I think Air Force will treat this game as their "Championship" playing an in-state rival they never get to play. These teams have't met since 1974. I was 2 years old. Air Force has two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Love it. Colorado has been outgained in both victories. With Colorado's Pac-12 opener next week at Arizona State, I believe the Falcons can win this game outright. The early start time (11:00 AM locally) benefits the rested team. Take the road team plus the points.

4*Wake Forest -2.5

This will be North Carolina's third game in 13 days. Tough. The Tar Heels upset the Hurricanes as 5-point underdogs despite getting outgained by 99 yards. Red flag. College Football teams are cashing just under 40% after upsetting Miami in the first two weeks of the season. Take Wake Forest minus the small number.

5*Indianapolis Colts +7

Andrew Luck is gone but that doesn't mean the Colts don't have a talented roster. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Jacoby Brissett had been in this Colts' system and everybody loves this guy in terms of his leadership and work ethic. Just ask Bill Parcells who raves about him. Yes, Jacoby wasn't good in 2017, but that was a totally different system under than head coach Chuck Pagano. Frank Reich emphasizes quick passing and Brisett should do well, especially since the Chargers have cluster injuries in the secondary. Most notably is Derwin James who is their best athlete on the back end. What I really like about the Colts in this game is their offensive line is ranked 5th by Pro Football Focus. The Chargers offensive line is ranked 29th and this was when Russell Okung was healthy. He's out for this game. Last season, the Chargers O'line allowed pressure on 31% of Rivers drop backs. That ranked 25th in the league. Frank Reich was the Chargers offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. I think he knows how to defend Philip Rivers tendencies. The Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage like most teams. I love the Colts in this spot! 

5*Tennessee Titans +6

I think this line is way out of whack. Earlier in the Summer, I saw a lot of 3.5 and 4 points with huge public money pushing this line higher. The Titans are a solid team with the #4 ranked offensive line at Pro Football Focus. The Browns O'line is ranked 20th, and could struggle early. Mike Vrabel guided the Titans to a 9-7 record and to within one game of a playoff berth, all while navigating one of the NFL's toughest schedules. This should be a very competitive game so I'm taking the points.

10*Fresno State +3.5

I think this line is out of whack. The Bulldogs outgained USC despite losing 31-23 last week. Minnesota defeated South Dakota state 28-21 despite getting outgained by 59 yards. Last year, Minnesota defeated the Bulldogs thanks to an amazing interception in the end zone. Minnesota will be playing this game (7:30 PM local time) with a 9:30 PM body clock time. The Gophers are 2-10 SU in their past 12 games away from Minneapolis. Fresno State is 28-4-1 SU in home openers. Take the points and try a slice on the money line as well.  

4*Northwestern +6.5

Stanford returns just nine starters with a shaky offensive line. They have no idea which QB will start for NW. That's a big advantage for the Wildcats. I think Hunter Johnson gets the call after transferring from Clemson. The Wildcats have been awesome as road underdogs going 27-9 ATS since 2008. Take the road team plus the points.

5*Toledo Rockets +12

Last year, the Wildcats enjoyed their most successful season in over 40 years. Kentucky lost five players to the NFL including all-time leading rusher Benny Snell and top 5 NFL draft pick DE Josh Allen. The Wildcats rank #114 in returning production. These teams have been major fade bait as double-digit chalk to begin the season. Speaking of chalk, Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as favorites over the past three seasons. Toledo averaged 40.4 points last year and should reach that mark once again. The Rockets should be able to score enough points to keep this one close.  

5*BYU +6

This will be the Cougars best team in quite some time. Utah is loaded as well, especially the front seven. BYU has a very strong offensive line to begin the season, which is key in this matchup. Last season, Utah defeated BYU 35-27 as 10.5-point chalk despite getting outgained 357-296. The Cougars blew a 20-point lead, thus I believe have this game circled to being the season. Seven of the past eight meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer. BYU ended last season by outgaining their opponent in seven straight games. Take the Cougars plus the points on Thursday night.

5*New York Jets +3

The Saints have nothing to prove in this game and they will be traveling a long distance for the second straight week. Adam Gase makes his home debut and I believe he wants to win this game. After losing to the Giants in week one in front of the home folks, this game means a lot. The Jets are excepted to play first-teamers into the 3rd quarter and the Jets have solid 2nd and 3rd teamers. L. Bell will not play for the Jets and that's baked into this line. I like the Jets plus the generous 3 points!

5*Denver Broncos -1

Vic Fangio and the Denver Broncos make their preseason debut at home. The Broncos went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS at home last August. I don't see that happening again. This will be the Broncos' dress rehearsal game as next week they play the LA Rams. Vic Fangio and company knows the Rams don't play any starters in the preseason, thus next week's game would not be a true test. The 49ers defeated the Cowboys 17-9 last week, and have their big dress rehearsal next week against the KC Chiefs. Last year, the 49ers defeated Dallas by 3 points and than lost their next three preseason games both SU & ATS. This seems like a flat spot for the 49ers and a big spot for the Broncos on National TV (ESPN), who are debuting a new head coach. Also, the Broncos are 8-0 ATS at home off a straight-up favorite loss in the preseason since 1983. Take the Broncos in a blowout!

4*Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-134)   Lyles/Davies listed pitchers

Its very difficult for a starting pitcher to defeat the same team twice in 6 days. Also, MLB teams are cashing close to 63% after allowing 10+ runs over the past decade. Let's take 1.5 runs just to be on the safe side. No pun intended. I believe we're getting good value as my number indicated a -148 lay.

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10*Milwaukee Bucks +2.5

The Toronto Raptors have played three extra games during this postseason. The team looks tired to me. I really believe this will be a big factor going against a Bucks' team that doesn't want to go home just yet. It's very difficult to win four straight games against a good team in 6 days. Also, closeout games are the toughest to win. I'm all over the Bucks on Saturday, and twice on Sunday!

5*Portland Trail Blazers -3

The Nuggets have played two more games than Portland in this NBA postseason. Coming off a four overtime game, I will side with the fresher team at home. No zigzag angle tonight. Take Portland!

10*Boston Celtics -2

The Bucks shot the lights out (42.6% 3-pointers) in game two, while Kyrie Irving had a sub-par performance shooting 4-of-18 from the field for just nine points. I love head coach Brad Stevens returning home off a blowout loss. This has worked well in the past, including 4-1 ATS this year. I also love the fact that the Bucks will playing its first true road game of the postseason. I'm sorry, but Detroit was lucky to be in the playoffs and not a difficult place to play. Boston is a tough venue for road teams especially the very first one. It's been 29 days since the Bucks played (Philly) at a rowdy arena. I really like the home team in this spot! 

5*San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The Spurs return home after getting blown out in game five. The Nuggets shot 50% from the field, 42.4% from 3-point land, and 80% from the free throw stripe. Major fade bate especially since Denver has a losing record on the road. San Antonio is obviously a well-coached veteran team with a lot of pride. I would expect a big bounce back effort to force a deciding game seven. Take the hungry host!

4*Orlando Magic +5.5

The Magic shot 36% from the floor and committed 16 turnovers in their game three loss. They still had a decent chance to win. I think they will play much better in this contest so I'm taking the 5.5 points!

4*LA Lakers +9.5

5*Virginia -5.5

I picked this team to win it all before the tourney started. Virginia yields only 55.4 points per game and holds opponents to 28.7 percent shooting from 3-point range. Auburn loves to run a lot but the Cavaliers have excelled against high-tempo teams. I have seen this before when #1 seeds barley escape in the Elite 8, and than go on to blowout their next foe in the Final 4. I think Virginia will play its best game against an Auburn team that will miss Chuma Okeke quite a bit. The Cavs are 25-11 ATS this season which represents beating "Las Vegas" expectations close to 70% of the time. Public is in love with the underdog. Not me. Lay the wood up to -7!

4*Lipscomb +2

4*Philadelphia -3.5

5*Virginia -4

5*Tennessee -1

I have the Vols rated much higher than Purdue. I think Tennessee will wake up against a Purdue team who rode Carsen Edwards career-best 42 points and nine 3-pointers in ousting the defending national champs. Very emotional game. Tennessee is ranked 5th at protecting the rim with 5.4 blocks per game. They almost blew a 25-point lead against Iowa. I think they will be super focused in this one. Take the Vols!

4*Charlotte Hornets +4

5*Liberty +9

5*Buffalo U +4

4*Villanova +4

I'm taking the points with the much defense. Look for a more complete effort after barley winning against St. Mary's. The Wildcats are the defending the Champs and will be playing with a "chip" on its shoulders after being listed as the underdog. Take Villanova plus the points!

5*Murray State +5

The Racers have Ja Morant and FSU does not. He will be the second player picked in the next NBA draft. Take Murray State in this upset maker.

5*Wofford +5.5

Both teams shot the lights out in their opening round games. Kentucky is coming off a 35-point blowout win over Abilene Christian. This Wofford defense can force the Wildcats into some turnovers. Kentucky is ranked 144th in ball security while Wofford is ranked 24th. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot 38.6% from the 3-point land in all neutral sites games. That's one of the worst marks of all the Top 2 seeds. The Terriers are ranked #2 in 3-point percentage in all of College basketball. I'll take the underdog in this spot!

5*Oregon +2

Oregon enters this game having won 8 games in a row. That's a key number. Underdogs in the first round having won 8 or more games in a row has been gold for quite some time. Murray State cashed in this role. I will take the Ducks in this one as they sport the better coach in my opinion. Oregon also has the advantage at point guard and this team is quite long on defense. I like Oregon to win outright.

5*Cal Irvine +5

The Anteaters will be playing in the Big Dance for the first time since 2014. They should pumped-up for sure. I love playing on underdogs in the first round if they have won 8 or more straight. This has been gold over the past decade. Murray State cashed for us yesterday in that same role. I actually think UC Irvine will give Kansas State all they can handle. The advanced metrics indicate that UC Irvine might win outright. Take the points!

5*Nevada -2

The Wolfpack are experienced, talented, athletic, versatile. On defense, they are long and athletic and can switch on any pick and roll. Nevada started 24-1, but went 5-3 to close the season, including two losses to San Diego State. It was the second straight season that the Aztecs sent the Wolfpack packing in the Mountain West Tourney semifinals. This team is well-coached under Eric Musselman. They have been tremendous after a loss the past two seasons. Last year, Nevada defeated Texas & Cincinnati before losing in the Sweet 16. Florida played a tough SEC schedule and went 9-9 in Conference play. Nevada went 15-3 against Conference foes. The advanced metrics suggests Nevada should be the favorites. Swallow the two points and take the Wolfpack.

5*Murray State +4

This Murray State team is for real. Ja Morant is a future NBA lottery selection. I love playing on underdogs in the first game of the tournament who have won 8 or more games in a row. This has been gold over the past decade. Take the Racers plus the generous 4 points. 

4*New Mexico State +6

Auburn relies on 3-point shooting, and will have to play at high-altitude for the first time all season after playing a late game on Sunday. They have also played one extra game this season. Tough. The Aggies are use to playing at altitude and they played at Colorado this season. Ignore the stats. This is a perfect situational play on the underdog.

4*St. Johns +2.5

4*Washington Wizards -2

5*Washington Wizards +6

The Wizards play really well at home (22-13) and will be fighting for their playoff lives. Bradley Beal has been on fire (two straight 40-point games) while the Wizards sit three games back of the Miami Heat for the 8th playoff spot. Washington has a +3.7 point differential at home while Utah sits at +1.1 on the road. The Wizards have a great chance to win this game outright so I'm taking the points tonight.

5*St. Bonaventure -1

10*Davidson -2.5

This one seems quite simple to me. Davidson is better in all the key stats I look for, and have them rated 5 points better than St Louis right now. Lay the lumber!

4*Richmond +5.5

5*Indiana Pacers -1

The Pacers will be attempting to win back-to-back games in almost three weeks. The Thunder played four road games than one home game and now hit the road before returning home. That home game is against the Golden State Warriors. Very possible look ahead spot here for the road team. The Pacers have a +8.7 point differential at home while the Thunder have a +1.9 mark on the road. The Pacers are 17-6 at home after a SU win. Take the hungry host!

5*St. Johns -4.5

St. Johns has lost three in a row, including a loss at Depaul. I believe the Red Storm will get back on track playing at Madison Square Garden. St. Johns is 11-4 at home while Depaul is 3-8 on the road. Take St. Johns!

4*Memphis Grizzlies +1.5

The Magic had played three road games than played one home game and now hit the road again. That's always tough for NBA teams this time of year. Memphis defeated the Jazz recently who I believe are better than this Magic team. Orlando is 6-9 on the road after a win. Take Memphis!

5*Temple -1

Central Florida is coming off its biggest win of the season defeating the Bearcats 58-55. Temple should be pumped-up for its last home game of the season. Temple wins this one!

3*LA Lakers +6

4*Rice Owls -1.5

4*Brooklyn Nets +3.5

The Nets have lost two games in a row and their defensive effort has been a big reason why. I think they will get back on track against a Heat team playing its third game in four days. Take the Nets!

3*Texas +1

4*Atlanta Hawks +5  

The Hawks already defeated the T-Wolves in Minnesota. I believe they matchup really well against them so I'm taking the 5 points.      

4*Penn State +2

4*Brooklyn Nets +3

4*Drake -4

5*St. John's +4.5

Taking the Red Storm here at home to give the Wildcats all they can handle. The Wildcats shot 42.5% from 3-point land in their last game. I don't see that high of a shooting percentage in this contest. Both teams recently played at Marquette. The Red Storm won by 1 point while the Wildcats lost by 1 point. St. John's lost by 5 points in the first meeting at Villanova and now they are getting 4.5 at home. Seems high to me. Take the hungry host!

4*Fresno State -1.5

4* Kansas State +3.5

4*Fresno State -1.5

4*Georgetown +5.5

3*Los Angeles Rams +3

I want to start off by saying my Super Bowl winner before the season started was the LA Rams over the Steelers. I will stick with it. You certainly won't get rich betting against Brady/Belichick for almost two decades. This is a light play for sure. With that said, I think the Rams have a lot of team speed on both sides of the ball. Playing on field turf should benefit the speedy Rams against the relatively slow Pats. Wade Philips faced Tom Brady and company numerous times when he was in Denver. They held Brady below his season average in almost every important QB stat. The Rams' defense is built very similar to those great Broncos' stop units although the Rams are a notch below. If Sean McVay was not the Rams head coach I would have liked the Pats when the line first came out. This guy is special and I don't think the Pats have a huge coaching edge. Sean McVay did coach against Belichick when he was in Washington. Kirk Cousins and the Redskins lost 27-10 with seven of those 10 points coming on a late garbage TD. Sean McVay said that loss kept him up all night and that the Patriots "took his team to the woodshed". The underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 Super Bowls. Check this out. Since 2001, the team ranked higher (better) in Overall Team Efficiency at Football Outsiders has gone 15-3 in the BIG GAME, including three straight winners. That's a large sample size. The Rams are ranked #2 while the Patriots are ranked #7 this season. You know how much I love Football Outsiders when it comes to crunching numbers. They do a tremendous job. It's a great site. Take the Rams plus the points!

NFL BIG GAME props

Successful 2-point conversion: YES +225

Defense or ST TD: NO -230

Total Rushing yards Todd Gurley: OVER 65 (-120)

Total Receiving yards Julian Edelman  OVER 80 (-120)

4*Tulsa +4.5

4*Pennsylvania -5.5

5*Drake -4

The Bulldogs have an extra day of rest and will bring in the better offense and defense. Drake is 9-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS at home this season. Illinois State is 1-6 SU and 5-5 ATS on the road this season. I think Drake is the more talented team and peeking at the right time. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS vs. winning teams this season and 28-14 ATS in that same role over the past three years. Take the Bulldogs in this one!

4*Cleveland +7.5

10*Minnesota Timberwolves +4

The Jazz defeated the T-Wolves two days ago 106-102 in Utah. The Jazz celebrated a little too much and the T-wolves took notice. Minnesota is 16-8 at home and an impressive 9-3 at home after a loss. Utah is 8-8 on the road after a win. The T-Wolves have a +5.8 point differential at home while the Jazz are just +1.3 on the road. I think the T-Wolves matchup well and we are getting 4 points. Take the home dog!

4*Cleveland Cavaliers +5

3*Texas State +2.5

3*Kent State +8.5

3*Baylor +3

4*Boston College +6.5

5*Vanderbilt -3.5

The Commodores are coming off a season-low 47 points scored @ Kentucky on 1/12/19. They should be super focused at home after losing three straight. South Carolina has scored 172 points in their past two games combined and now must play a road game. Tough. SC will be playing its 4th road game this season were they are 1-2 SU. Take the hungry host!

4*Houston Rockets -5.5

The Rockets return home after losing to Orlando 116-109 as 6-point road chalk on Sunday. James Harden shot 1-for-19 from 3-point land. I would expect a much better performance in this one. The Grizzles are ranked 30th in 3-point shots made. Houston has already defeated the Grizzles this season by 12 and 8 points respectively. Memphis has a minus -4.5 point differential on the road while the Rockets own a point differential of plus +4.6 at home. Take the Rockets!

10*New England Patriots -4

No team in the NFL has traveled more miles than the LA Chargers this season. This will be LAC's third straight road game and second straight Eastern time zone starting in the early slot. That game last week was very physical. The Patriots have the 3rd-ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders, including #1 in sacks allowed (21). I trust the coach/QB duo to game plan for the Chargers tired legs and pass rush. Look for the Patriots to spread the Chargers out, and utilize James White & Sony Michel in the passing game. New England should take advantage with Gronk as the Chargers are ranked #20 in defending the TE. The Patriots are ranked 15 spots higher in penalties per game. New England is ranked 4th while the Chargers are ranked 19th. Tired teams tend to commit more penalties too. I told you in my write-up last week that special teams means more in the playoffs and it certainly was a factor in the Eagles win. The Chargers are ranked 25th in Special Teams (worst among remaining teams) while the Patriots are ranked 16th. New England has won 7 straight games coming off a BYE in the playoffs by an average of 17 points per game. The Patriots are 8-0 SU at home this season outscoring foes by 16 points per game and +111 yard differential. Also, this game will be in the mid 20s. That's 30 degrees colder than what the Chargers played in at Baltimore. Finally, we are getting the better head coach to say the least. The public is all over the Chargers. Not me. Take the Pats!

5*Dallas Cowboys +7.5

I love playing on NFL underdogs of 7 or more points with the better defense in the postseason. The Dallas stop unit is ranked 9th while the Rams are ranked 19th at Football Outsiders. A big factor is the crowd. A 50/50 split seems more than likely. The Rams haven't played a meaningful game in almost a month. Both teams like to run a lot. The Cowboys run defense is ranked 3rd while the Rams run defense is ranked 21st at Football outsiders. Seems like a FG game either way to me. Take the road dog!

4*Richmond +2

5*Philadelphia Eagles +6

The Eagles are built a lot like the Bears with a huge advantage in playoff experience. Big factor. Chicago's offensive line is ranked 30th at Football Outsiders, despite their gaudy stats. Very few NFL teams win playoff games with that mark. The QB's are comparable (Trubisky QBR= 72.8, Foles QBR= 67.4) this season. I believe special teams means more in the playoffs and the Eagles are ranked 11 spots higher. The Bears are ranked 26th which is the worst mark of all the playoff teams. The Chargers are ranked 25th so it's real close. The Bears have won & covered four straight games and they have a +12 turnover differential. Great fade bate. I love playing on NFL underdogs in the Wild Card round if they had to win their final game to make the playoffs. This has been gold over the years. Take the Eagles!

4*Northern Illinois +4

4*Chicago Bulls +1.5

5*Ohio State -6.5

This one looks simple to me. I like the Buckeyes to win this Rose Bowl as they will enjoy a huge talent advantage in this one. Actually, Michigan is built similar to this Huskies' squad. You all saw what happened. Blowout. Urban Meyer is 11-3 SU and 11-3 ATS in his Bowl game career. Ohio State went 7-1 SU against other Bowl teams while Washington went 6-3 SU. Ohio State is 15-4 SU and 15-4 ATS against the Pac 12 since 1993. Look for Ohio State to win the final game of Meyer's Buckeyes' career.

4*Pittsburgh U +5.5