3*Oklahoma State -5.5

I think the Cowboys are by far the more talented team. I have Oklahoma State nine points better on a neutral court. UCF is coming off a game where they allowed just 37 points. This will be a completely different experience in the Bahamas. Lay it! 

3*Washington Wizards -4.5

Third road game in four nights for the Thunder. The Wizards get Bradley Beal back which should only help a team that has won four in a row. Washington plays much better defense so lets swallow the points in this spot!

3*Cleveland Browns +4

The Dolphins have played nine straight games without any rest. Their defense could be tiring after chasing Justin Fields all over the field last week. The Browns own the better offensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 22) and special teams (No. 22 vs. No. 32). Cleveland owns a net yards per play of +0.22, while the Dolphins are +0.24 this season. Miami is ranked No. 26 in sack rate, while Cleveland ranks No. 14 this season. The Browns are ranked No. 16 in third-down defense, while Miami is ranked No. 27 this season. Cleveland gets stud cornerback Denzel Ward back. I like the Browns with two weeks to prepare in this spot!

The Lions defeated the Packers 15-9 last week, despite getting out-gained 389-254. Detroit finished with a +2 turnover differential and took advantage of eight Packers injured during the game. The Bears' defense was on the field for just 53 plays against the Dolphins and should be relatively fresh. The Lions will be playing their first game on a grass field this season and Jared Goff has struggled in cold weather (below 40) in his career. The Bears own a +0.14 net yards per play at home, while Detroit owns a -0.58 net yards per play on the road. Chicago is ranked No. 10 in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked No. 29 this season. Take the Bears at this great price! 

5*Wake Forrest -3.5

Wake Forrest owns the better defensive line (No. 50 vs. No. 123) and overall defense (No. 50 vs. No. 118) at Football Outsiders. The Demon Deacons have revenge on their minds after blowing a big lead last season (58-55), despite out-gaining the Tar Heels 615-546. Wake Forrest is ranked 17 spots higher in DVOA and 16 spots higher in strength of schedule. North Carolina will be playing its third set of back-to-back road games. The Tar Heels are 3-12 against-the-spread off a win vs. a conference rival of late. Wake Forrest is 13-2 straight-up and 12-3 ATS at home over the past three seasons. Take the hungry host!

3*Washington Commanders +4

The Vikings allow more yards per game (383) than they gain (345) so far this season. Washington brings in the better defense, allowing 334 yards per game. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in red-zone defense, while the Vikings are ranked No. 32 thru week seven. Washington is ranked No. 4 in the fewest fantasy points allowed vs. tight ends. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in special teams, while Minnesota is ranked No. 25 this season. The Vikings six wins have come against teams with a combined 15-24 record. Seems like a tough spot for the road team with the Buffalo Bills on deck. Take the home dog!

5*Georgia Southern +4

South Alabama will be playing its fourth game in 21 days. That seems like a tough spot considering Georgia Southern has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Eagles own the better offensive line (No. 83 vs. No. 101). They are 11-3 against-the-spread vs. winning teams over the past three seasons. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and 1-4 ATS as road chalk. Take the home team plus the points!

3*New Orleans Saints +2

New Orleans has three extra days to get healthy and prepare for head coach Dennis Allen's former team, where he coached from 2012-2014. Marshawn Lattimore is expected to return from his injury. The Saints have out-gained five of their seven opponents, while the Raiders are just 3-3 in the stats. Las Vegas is ranked No. 27 in third-down defense and No. 30 in red-zone defense. The Saints are ranked No. 4 in third-down defense and No. 13 in red-zone defense. I like the fact Las Vegas won't know which QB will start for the Saints until later this week, and Las Vegas is ranked No. 32 in opponent passer rating. Las Vegas will be playing this game at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock), and they are just 9-21 against-the-spread vs. the NFC of late. Take the hungry host plus the points! 

4*Baylor +2.5

Baylor owns the better offensive line (No. 26 vs. No. 92) and defensive line (No. 24 vs. No. 35) at Football Outsiders. The Bears own a +1.3 net yards per play differential, while Texas Tech is +0.5 this season. Baylor is ranked No. 66 (45.1%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas Tech is ranked No. 182 (36.2%). The Red Raiders are 0-6 straight-up off a win vs. a conference rival and 0-5-1 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points. Baylor is 9-4 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. Texas Tech has a big revenge game @ TCU next week. Take the road dog!

4*Kentucky +12.5

Kentucky has the better special teams (No. 11 vs. No. 43) and overall defense (No. 14 vs. 42) at Football Outsiders. The Wildcats have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, Tennessee defeated Kentucky 45-42 despite getting out-gained 612-461. The Vols are 8-17 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points of late. They also have a big game against Georgia next week. Take the road team plus the points!

3*Washington Commanders +5.5

The Commanders own the better defensive line (No. 12 vs. No. 32), special teams (No. 5 vs. No. 30) and overall defense (No. 11 vs. No. 24) at Football Outsiders. I like the QB switch for the home team. Green Bay is dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line. This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. I like Washington in this spot!

4*UTEP +4.5

UTEP owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams at Football Outsiders. The Miners have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, FAU defeated UTEP 28-25, despite getting out-gained 438-280. UTEP is 6-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week and 7-2 ATS vs. losing teams of late. FAU is 2-9 straight-up and 3-8 ATS in games played on turf, including 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the hungry host!

5*Wisconsin -2

This will be the Boilermakers third road game in four weeks. They accumulated over 600 total yards in last week's victory. Teams in this role have been a great play to fade in their next game. Wisconsin brings in the better net yards per play (+0.5 vs. -0.4), better offensive line, (No. 67 vs. No. 97) and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Purdue is 3-8 against-the-spread vs. losing teams of late. Take the home team to get back to .500 before their BYE week.

4*New England Patriots +3

The Patriots own the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Bill Belichick is very familiar with Jacoby Brissett and his skill set. The Browns play the Ravens next week. I like the road dog plus the points! 

5*Oklahoma State +4

Money is coming in on TCU based on last year's blowout loss to these Cowboys. I don't think anything has changed. Oklahoma State should be able to pile up yards on the ground. TCU is ranked No. 71 in defensive line DVOA, while the Cowboys are ranked No. 4 this season. The Cowboys are ranked 18 spots higher in overall defense and will gladly take four points in this spot.

2*Vancouver Canucks +1.5 (-150)

The Oilers swept the Canucks last season with all four games decided by one goal. Three games were decided in Overtime/Shootout. This is a big time rivalry so lets take the road team on the puck line.

3*Baltimore Ravens -3

The Bengals went 2-0 vs. the Ravens last year scoring 41 points in both blowouts. Lamar Jackson was injured in the first game and then missed the rematch two months later. The Ravens could easily be 4-0, and this seems like a nice bounce back spot playing with revenge off a loss. Lamar Jackson's QBR is 72.4, while Joe Burrow's QBR is 49.4 through week four. The Ravens are 8-2 straight-up after committing 9 or more penalties in defeat. Well-coached team. Lets swallow the FG and take the Ravens! 

4*Cleveland Browns +3

The Browns return home off a loss at Atlanta, despite out-gaining the Falcons 403-333. Nick Chubb and company should have a field day against this Chargers' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line is ranked No. 30 at Football Outsiders, while the Browns are ranked No. 7 so far this season. Cleveland owns the much better special teams unit. Second straight road game for the Chargers after playing indoors last week. Strong angle. This week playing at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) against a physical team seems like a tough spot. Take the Browns!

3*Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5

I like Kenny Pickett and consider him an upgrade. He brings unbridled enthusiasm and his mobility should help move the chains. The Bills played a high-energy (90 offensive snaps) game in Miami and then another high-energy emotional come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. The Steelers have never been this large of an underdog and you can be sure Mike Tomlin will use it as motivation. Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked No. 13 at Football Outsiders, while Buffalo is ranked No. 32 thru week four. The Steelers are ranked No. 9 in opponent passer rating (77). The Buffalo Bills have their ultimate revenge game (Divisional playoff loss 42-36 in OT) against the Kansas City Chiefs next week. This line seems inflated. I like the road dog!

5*Miami U -3.5

The Hurricanes have two weeks to prepare after their embarrassing loss vs. Middle Tenn State as 26-point home chalk. Mario Cristobal is 6-2 against-the-spread when playing with extra rest since 2018. Miami's offensive line ranked No. 38, while North Carolina is ranked No. 90 at Football Outsiders. The Hurricanes' defensive line is ranked No. 33, while the Tar Heels are ranked No. 119 this season. North Carolina defeated Miami 45-42, despite getting out-gained 421-382 last year. The Tar Heels benefited from a +2 turnover differential. This will be the highest humidity game for the road team so far this season. North Carolina is 3-8 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival since 2019. Take the hungry host!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

The Buffalo Bills offense was on the field for 90 plays in last week's loss at Miami. They will now play their second straight road game in less than ideal conditions. Rain is expected (78%) from the remnants of Hurricane Ian. Buffalo defeated the Ravens 17-3 in the 2021 divisional playoffs, despite getting out-gained 340-220. The Ravens last home game vs. Miami was a meltdown of epic proportions. They should be motivated. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in their last nine games. Buffalo is 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against-the-spread when playing on a grass field of late. Take the home dog in what should be a tight game! 

4*Iowa State -3

Kansas is 4-0 straight-up & 4-0 against-the-spread, despite getting out-gained in two of those games. Iowa State has the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense according to every metric. The Jayhawks have played a much easier schedule so far. Kansas is 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning teams of late. The Cyclones are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I like the road team in this spot!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

The Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 as 7-point road underdogs last season. The Cowboys out-gained Baylor 333-242. Both teams have a Top 2 offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. The Cowboys are 21-6-1 ATS vs. winning teams. I see value on the road team!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Chargers have seven key starters listed as questionable on their injury report. Their starting center Corey Linsley is elite. If he does play, he won't be 100% healthy. The Chargers could also be rusty from not having six players practice this week. It's going to be hot (around 90). Despite the roof, the open sides of the stadium still make it vulnerable to extreme heat. I think the Jaguars will handle the hot weather better than the Chargers. LA doesn't really have any home field edge as most of their fans are in San Diego. Jacksonville hasn't won on the road in their past 17 games. They should be motivated. I think they keep this one close!

3*Carolina Panthers +3

This will be the first game outdoors for the majority of the Saints' roster since last year. Carolina should have a lot of confidence, knowing they beat New Orleans 26-7 as 3-point home dogs in week two last season. The Panthers out-gained New Orleans 383-128 with Sam Darnold under center. New Orleans has allowed 10 sacks in two games and will be without their starting left tackle. Carolina is 4-0 against-the-spread in Week 3 over the past four years. New Orleans is 1-3 straight-up after playing Tampa Bay the last two seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Saints play the Vikings in London next week. Take the home dog! 

5*Arkansas +2

Texas A&M made a QB switch and escaped with a victory against Miami, despite getting out-gained by 128 yards. That loss to Appalachian State is a red flag. The Razorbacks have a really good pass rush and now will face an inexperienced QB at a neutral site. We get the better QB (dual threat), offensive line, and red-zone efficiency as an underdog. Arkansas has out-gained all three foes by 113 yards to start the season. The Razorbacks out-gained the Aggies 448-272 in their 20-10 win last season. Don't worry that Arkansas plays Alabama next week. In a similar spot last year, Arkansas defeated LSU before playing the Crimson Tide. Arkansas has a lot more experience playing on field turf. The Razorbacks are 8-5 straight-up, while Texas A&M is just 1-1 SU over the past three seasons. Larger sample size shows Texas A&M just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. Take the dog!

3*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

Minnesota is in the middle of a division sandwich. They are coming off an emotional win and play another division game next week. The Eagles should be able to dominate the Vikings' undersized interior offensive line. Minnesota and QB Kirk Cousins haven't played great in prime-time games. We also have a rookie head coach making his road debut. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points. Light play on the home chalk.

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The majority of the Colts roster haven't played a game outdoors since losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last year. The public loves the Colts in this revenge spot. Not so fast. The Colts' offense was on the field for 90 plays in their 20-20 tie last week. In the last 30 games, teams off a tie are just 13-17 ATS in their next game. Light play on the home team!

4*Fresno State +12.5

This will be the best offense that USC has played so far this season. The over/under tells the entire story. Points will be scored by both teams. The Trojans don't have a shut-down defense and the back door will always be open (if needed). USC has a big revenge game on deck against Pac-12 rival Oregon State. The Bulldogs should be all in knowing they have a BYE next week. Fresno State is 9-2 ATS as a road dog, while USC is 3-8 ATS as home chalk of late. The Trojans are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 40+ points. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. The road dog checks all the boxes!  

5*New York Giants +6

The Titans' offensive line is in major flux. They decided to invest heavily on the defensive line (see below). The Giants' offensive line looks much improved and all their key starters played meaningful snaps in the preseason. The Titans really don't know what type of offense the new regime will implement. New York knows exactly the Titans game plan, which features Derrick Henry behind a shaky offensive line. Tennessee just lost their best edge rusher from a year ago with a season-ending injury. The Titans play the Buffalo Bills next week on Monday Night Football. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +4

The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 3 at Pro Football Focus and they have very talented skill players at RB, WR, and TE. Jared Goff is very capable and once put up 50+ points on MNF. The Lions drafted well on the defense and should improve in year two under Dan Campbell. In week one, you want to play on teams that missed the playoffs against teams that made the playoffs from the previous year. Strong angle. The Lions should be focused knowing the Eagles crushed them 44-6 in Detroit last Halloween. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Steelers played most of their starters in the preseason, while the Bengals decided to rest nearly every key player on the roster. The Bengals went 2-0 against Pittsburgh last season (out-scored Pittsburgh 65-20), despite getting out-gained 643-638. Mike Tomlin and company are 4-1-1 straight-up of late when playing on the road in week one. This line seems super inflated to me for a division game in week one. Division underdogs are 29-9-1 ATS in week one since 2014. Take the road dog!

5*Georgia State +7.5

North Carolina defeated Appalachian State 63-61, despite getting out-gained by 82 yards last week. Georgia state has the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams. North Carolina is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS when playing back-to-back road games of late. The Panthers are 14-6 ATS playing on turf, while the Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS on that same surface over the past three years. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS after a loss of 20+ points. Take the hungry host!

5*Boise State +2.5

The Broncos return 17 starters from a squad that went 7-5, while defeating two ranked teams last season. Boise State out-scored their opponents by 10 points per game. I see more improvements in year two under Andy Avalos. The Beavers should get better as the season plays out. Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 0-4 straight-up and 0-4 against-the-spread in openers. Boise State is 32-16 ATS as an underdog since 1993. Take the road dog!

5*San Diego State -6

The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 as 1-point road dogs last season. San Diego State out-gained Arizona 454-230. Arizona has a long way to go after winning just one game last season. The Wildcats' offensive line is ranked No. 12 in the Pac 12, and their defensive line is ranked No. 10. The Aztecs' offensive line is ranked No. 2 in the Mountain West, and their defensive line is ranked No. 1 heading into this opener. The Aztecs will be debuting in a brand new home stadium. The new grass field should benefit San Diego State. The Aztecs are 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread on a grass field. Arizona plays mostly on field turf. They are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS playing on a grass field over the past three years. Take the home team!

5*Denver Broncos +1

This game means a lot more to the Broncos after losing 42-15 at Buffalo last week. Denver allowed 510 total yards, 208 rushing yards, and 32 First-downs. I love playing on teams returning home off a blowout loss. I watched Kevin O'Connell presser today and there was no mention of a game plan for this game. He said we're trying to get ready for the Green Bay Packers in week one. The Vikings traded for QB Nick Mullens, which means less reps in practice for the other two QBs that will play most of the game. My best handicap is the fact that the Minnesota Vikings will be playing their first game outdoors this preseason. The Broncos have a huge home field edge in August. Take the hungry host!

5*Miami Dolphins +2

This will be the Raiders' third game in 16 days. Lots of travel--- to Cleveland than back home and now another flight to the East Coast. Miami's humidity and dew point are the highest of any NFL city, even at 7:00 PM E. Las Vegas will be "gassed" by the second half after playing indoors this past Saturday. The Raiders have allowed nine sacks in their first two games. Wow! Don't expect their starters to play much. Also, Josh McDaniels and company play the Patriots next week. I like the Dolphins QB rotation for this game. Take the home dog!

5*Denver Broncos -2

The Broncos have a big advantage playing at home in the preseason and early in the regular season. Opposing teams are completely "gassed" by the second half. Nathaniel Hackett would like to win his debut and the Broncos have a much better QB rotation than Dallas. Take the home team!

4*San Francisco Giants +1.5  (Kershaw/Junis)

The Giants have lost seven straight to the Dodgers after getting shutout on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw is just 2-5 in his last seven starts against the Giants. The Dodgers might be looking ahead to Friday's game against the Padres. SF faces a lefty for the second straight game, and they are ranked No. 6 in OPS vs. left-handed starters. An early day game after a night game tends to be lower scoring. I like the home team on the run line!

3*Oakland A's +1.5 (+112)  (Manoah/Irvin)

The Blue Jays have played five straight against the Tampa Bay Rays and now travel to the West Coast. Seems like a flat spot to me. I like the A's on the run line!

5*Dallas Mavericks -2

The Warriors should incur a natural letdown after that second half comeback win on Friday night. The Mavs bench should be much better at home. Dallas should be super focused in this spot!

4*Dallas Mavericks +1

The Suns shot the lights out (62.5%) from the field in Wednesday's victory. Phoenix is just 1-3 in game No. 3 of NBA postseason series of late. Dallas should be able to get better bench production at home. I think just one day rest instead of two benefits Dallas more. Take the hungry host!

4*Washington Capitals +1.5 (-125)

The Panthers haven't played a meaningful game in quite some time. When these teams met way back in November, all three games were decided by one goal. Florida went 2-5 ATS when playing three or more days of rest. Washington has a ton of experience from a Cup run in 2018. Florida is ranked No. 27 (832) in Penalty minutes, while Washington is ranked No. 5 (631). I like the Capitals on the puck line in game one.

3*Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Mavericks are now 4-3 vs. Utah this season, with two losses by 7 points combined. I think the Mavs will play much better in Luka's second game back. I don't think the Jazz with get 42 free throw attempts either. Dallas 16-4 this season after scoring less than 100 points. Take the home team!

5*Atlanta Hawks +1.5

The Hawks return home after committing 37 turnovers in both games combined at Miami. I have no problems fading Butler and the Heat after two very impressive wins at home. The Hawks play much better at home and would expect a top-notch effort in this spot. Take the hungry host!

4*Toronto Raptors +4.5

Toronto defeated the 76ers 119-114 as 3.5-point home dogs on April 7th. The game was telling in my opinion. The Raptors were able to switch every pick & roll with their length. Philadelphia shot 52.8% from 3-point land and still lost. Don't fall asleep on this Raptors' team. Toronto owns a +2.3 point differential, while Philadelphia is +2.6 this season. Toronto has really good team chemistry and I love their head coach. Take the Raptors (plus the points) and for the series at a nice price.

5*North Carolina +4.5

I think the Tar Heels match-up quite well against this Kansas team. The Jayhawks benefited from a short-handed Villanova team. North Carolina has a huge edge in rebounding and free throw percentage. Kansas shot 53.7% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point land in beating the Wildcats. Both well above their season averages. Major fade bait now as a favorite. I like North Carolina plus the points!

5*Golden State Warriors +2

The Utah Jazz were on the road for six games, home for one game, and now hit the road again. Not an ideal spot, especially playing four games in six days. They shot 51% in their win over the LA Lakers. Big revenge game. The Warriors lost 111-85 on Feb. 9th in Utah. Golden State played really well against the Suns. No Steph. No problem tonight. Take the hungry host!

5*North Carolina +2.5

The Tar Heels have a massive advantage in rebounding. I'm shocked the line is this high. UCLA will be doing something for the first time this season, playing with six days of rest. North Carolina is 3-0 when playing six days rest, and 6-1 vs. UCLA in the past seven match-ups. I have been more impressed with North Carolina's two wins over the Bruins' two wins. Take the dog!

4*Arizona -1 (-117)

A lot of love for the Cougars right now. The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 SU vs. teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 SU against teams that average 77 or more points. I like Arizona!

10*Illinois +4.5

Houston was on fire against UAB, shooting 53.3% from the field and 47.6% from 3-point land. That is well above their season long averages. The Cougars are ranked No. 140 in 3-point percentage and rank No. 327 in free throw percentage (66.6%). Illinois shot 38.8% from the field and 17.6% from 3-point land in that 1-point victory. Illinois will be ready as their depth should outlast Houston led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini played the tougher schedule (No. 11 vs. 51). I think they can win this outright. Illinois is 10-1 SU after scoring 60 points or less, including 5-0 SU this season. Take the points!

5*Davidson +1.5

The wrong team is favored in my opinion. Davidson has trouble with rebounding, but the Spartans are not the type of team that can take advantage. Michigan State is one of the worst teams in terms of shot selection. They went 3-3 in their last six games and it could have been 1-5. Tyson Walker is ? for MSU. I think Dayton wins easily!

5*Murray State -1.5

The Racers can shoot and defend in the post. They have more experience, as this will be Murray State's 18th appearance in the Big Dance. The Dons went 24-9 this year after going 11-14 last year. I don't think they are ready for this type of game. Murray State has the best record in the nation (30-2) and rank No. 11 in rebounds. San Francisco comes in on a 3-0 ATS streak. Murray State is 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Take the Racers! 

5*Vermont +5.5

I always like backing single-digit underdogs in the first round on long winning streaks. The Catamounts have won eight in a row. Schematically, Vermont is off the charts effective. Arkansas did not show up in losing 82-64 as 6.5-point favorites against Texas A&M. I think Vermont can win outright. Take the points!

4*Dallas Mavs -2.5

The Nets scored 150 points on Tuesday and will now play without K. Irving who scored 60 points. This will be the Nets' third game in four days. New Jersey is 2-9 SU when playing back-to-back games this year. Dallas is 13-4 SU after scoring 100 points or less and 6-3 SU when playing with two days of rest. Take the toad team!

4*South Carolina +4.5

South Carolina defeated Mississippi State by 10 points on Feb. 23rd. They are the perfect opponent for SC. Both teams struggle with 3-pointers this season. Miss State shoots 29.3%. South Carolina shoots 31.8%. The Gamecocks allowed 81 points in an 11-point loss at Auburn on March 5. South Carolina is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points this season. Miss State is 8-14 SU against winning teams this season. Rocket Watts is OUT for SC. This line seems inflated. Take the points!

4*Charlotte Hornets +7.5

Both teams come in off losses to the New Jersey Nets. The Celtics beat the Nets 126-120 on Sunday, thanks in part to J. Tatum posting a season-high 54 points. The Hornets lost 132-121 as K. Irving posted 50 points in Tuesday's win. Charlotte has allowed two players score 50+ points in two straight games. Boston is just 2-5 ATS when playing with two days rest. This is a must play on the home team plus the points.

10*Syracuse -1

The Orange have lost three straight and now return for their final home game of the season. Miami is coming off a win at BC, shooting 56.4% from the field and 47.6% from beyond the arc. Both are well-above their season average. Syracuse will look to avenge an 88-87 loss back in Jan. The Orange blew an 18-point halftime lead, while committing a season-high 19 turnovers. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, Syracuse is 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last home game, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS when playing three or more days of rest, with an average win margin of 23 points per game. Take the hungry host!

4*Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The T-wolves have nobody on their roster that can stop Ja Morant. Very few teams do. The Grizzlies are 18-9 SU vs. winning teams while Minnesota is 12-17 this season. I like Memphis to get another win on the road!

5*Florida PK

The Gators need a signature win against a ranked opponent in a big way. Arkansas allowed just 48 points in defeating Tennessee last week. The Razorbacks have played numerous high-energy games of late. I think it will catch up against this solid Florida team. 

5*Miami-FL -1.5

The Cavaliers shot a season-high 60% from the field and 53% from beyond the arch in handing the Hurricanes their first conference loss of the season. Miami has been superb against good defensive teams (allowing less than 64 points) going 18-5 ATS, including 4-1 this season. I like Miami in this one!

5*Brooklyn Nets +2.5

The Nets will be getting some reinforcements, looking to end its 11-game losing skid. The Kings shot a season-high 56.6% from the field in their victory over Washington. I really like the Nets in this spot who are extremely motivated tonight.  

4*Washington Wizards +3

The Kings are coming off a two-game series against Minnesota. I love fading losing teams on the road after scoring 130+ points. Sacramento is 1-8 SU after scoring 130+ points, including 0-4 this season. The Wizards should have a lot of confidence after defeating the Nets. Take the home team!

4*Mississippi State +1.5

The Volunteers have won two straight, scoring 171 points combined while shooting well-above their season average (69.7%) at the free throw line. This is a great spot for the Bulldogs as they are 11-2 SU after scoring 60 or fewer points, including 2-0 this season. Mississippi State needs a win over a ranked team to impress the Big Dance selection committee. I think they get one tonight! 

5*Colorado State -2.5

The Aztecs defeated the Rams by 30 points on 1/8/22. The original team had Covid-19 concerns, so the Rams were forced to play at SD State with very little prep time. The Aztecs handed Colorado State their first loss of the season. The Rams have been waiting for this rematch. San Diego State has a revenge game against Nevada on Sunday. Take the hungry host!

4*Northwestern +4.5

Illinois played short-handed against MSU and came away with a 1-point victory. The team remains short-handed in this matchup against NW. The Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in assist to turnover ratio in the nation. Northwestern has lost three in a row and four straight on its home floor. I would expect a really good effort by the Wildcats in this one.

4*Creighton +2.5

The Blue Jays get their coach back for this revenge game. In the first meeting, Xavier overcame a halftime deficit as Creighton committed 21 turnovers. The Blue Jays are coming off a horrific shooting performance from the field (35.6%) and beyond the arch (9.1%) Xavier is coming off an emotional loss as Providence nailed a 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left on the clock. I like the home team in this spot!

4*Detroit Pistons +3.5

Detroit has lost three straight, including a home-and-home with Denver. The Pistons defeated the Magic earlier this month in Detroit while being short-handed. I just think it's a tough match-up for this Magic team right now. Detroit plays their best defense with two days of rest (18-12 ATS past three years). The Magic are a lowly 3-18 SU at home this season. Take the Pistons and the points!

4*Central Florida +4.5

I like the Knights in this spot getting points. UCF is 7-4 SU against winning teams. I have this game power-rated at 2.5 points. Great value on the road team!

5*Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

There is a lot of support for the Bills. I guess their looking at Buffalo's superb 4.6 opponent yards per play. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of sub-par quarterbacks. The Bills (16th) played the easier schedule than Kansas City (4th). I just can't get the fact out of my mind that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Bills literally played a perfect game on offense last week. No punts, no fumbles lost, no interceptions, no field goals. Just a touchdown on seven straight drives until the kneel down. It will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise. He does that quite often. Kansas City went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS vs winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS vs winning teams. Buffalo is also 2-3 SU on a grass field, while Kansas City went 11-4 SU. Patrick Mahomes ll is 7-2 SU in the playoffs, only losing to Tom Brady. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season in Kansas City. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch. Lay it!

3*Miami Florida -2

FSU has defeated the Hurricanes in eight straight meetings, including a 1-point victory this past week. The Hurricanes should be pumped-up at home in this revenge spot.

4*Chicago Bulls +3

The Cavs are in a tough spot coming off what their coach called " a signature win" over the Nets. Cleveland was on the road for six games, played one home game and now hit the road again. Very tough spot. The Bulls are eager to end its four-game losing skid. Take the Bulls in this upset maker!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +9

The Eagles have a Top four offensive line which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. They also own the better special teams unit which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa, FL right about game time. The Forecast calls for Rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to wire!

10*Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders escaped with a 35-32 OT win late Sunday night, despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 88 plays and 38:41 of field time. Seven of the Raiders' 10 wins have occurred indoors. Las Vegas will be playing their first game in sub-freezing temps in quite some time. I think traveling East and playing Saturday at 4:30 PM E is not an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5.0 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while the Bengals commit the second-fewest. No revenge for Las Vegas. Take the Bengals!

3*Central Florida +2

This is a classic wise guy handicap where one team (Memphis) has shot the lights out in two straight games, while the other team (UCF) has shot well below their season average in their last two games. A regression and progression to the means usually happens. Take the home team with the better defense.

5*LA Rams -4

As a local, I have a pretty good read on this team. The Rams are sick & tired of hearing how the 49ers have dominated them in the past (5-0 L5). Jimmy G is not 100% healthy. Trey Lance is still a rookie making his second career road start. Whichever QB starts for SF, the Rams have the edge in my opinion. The Rams (6th) have played a much tougher schedule than SF (22nd). The Rams are ranked No. 6 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 27 this season. SF is 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on turf, while the Rams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on turf this season. The public is all over the underdog making the 49ers a square dog. Take the Rams (minus the points) to the bank!

4*FSU -4.5

The Seminoles are coming off a non-effort against Wake Forest. FSU shot 24.2% from the field, including 16% (4-for-25) from beyond the arc. It was the Seminoles most lopsided conference defeat since 2017 and worst shooting performance since 2010. Louisville was been winning close games of late. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Georgetown +2.5

This line is way too high even though Georgetown hasn't played since Dec. 18th. Marquette is coming off an upset win against Providence. The Golden Eagles shot 52.5% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point land, and 88.9% from the FT line, while scoring a season-high 88 points. Marquette is 5-14 ATS (0-2 TY) vs. teams that average 77 or more points per game. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Washington Football Team +3.5

The Eagles defeated Washington just 12 days ago by 10 points. The Football Team were missing numerous starters including their top two QB's. The Football team return home after getting embarrassed at Dallas. I would expect a much better effort. The Eagles will be without leading rusher Miles Sanders and QB J. Hurts is playing with an ankle injury. I think we're getting two points of value in this division game. I'm going against the public in this one. Take the points!

10*Baltimore Ravens +5.5

This will be the Rams' third game in 12 days after having to play on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This will also be the Rams' first back to back road trip without extra rest this season. This game was originally scheduled for 4:25 PM E. Now, it's an early game (10:00 AM body clock) for the Rams, who had to fly back to the West Coast after playing at Minnesota. No Lamar is fine by me. Tyler Huntley has a QBR of 58.9, while Lamar's QBR is 50.1. QBR is a percentage so anything over 50 is above average. By comparison, P. Mahomes QBR is 59.0, which shows just how well Huntley has played.

The Rams have been outgained in four of their past six games, while the Ravens have outgained opponents in four of their past five. The Ravens are ranked No. 3 in third-down defense, while the Rams are ranked No. 20 this season. Look at the Rams when they don't play on turf. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on a grass surface this season. The Rams are also 1-3 ATS vs. winning teams. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons, including 4-1 ATS this year. The Ravens get numerous key defensive players back after having to sit out due to Covid restrictions. Take the Ravens in their Super Bowl!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

I think losing HC Brian Kelly to USC doesn't bode well for ND in this game. The Fighting Irish will be without their top RB (Williams) and top Safety (Hamilton) as well. The Cowboys played a tougher schedule (.575 vs .505) and own the better defense. Oklahoma State's defensive line is ranked No. 3, while ND is ranked No. 59 this season. ND is ranked No. 112 in third-down efficiency. The Fighting Irish went 6-1 SU against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the seven. The Cowboys went 7-2 SU against fellow bowl teams, outgaining six of nine foes. Notre Dame has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS, with a 102-263 point differential. Take the underdog!

5*Air Force +1.5

The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (#37 vs. #98) and overall defense (#47 vs. #71). That travels well this time of year. Air Force is 23-8 SU over the past three seasons. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. This will be the Cardinals' 10th bowl game in 12 years. They sport a 5-4 SU & 5-4 ATS record. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Louisville went 2-6 SU against other bowl teams, while Air Force went 3-3. Do note the Falcons outgained five of the six. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993. Take the dog! 

5*Minnesota Vikings +3

Both teams will be playing with short rest, but the Rams are in the tougher spot. They have won and covered three straight games. LA is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS after winning three straight since 2018. The Vikings have played 11 straight games decided by single digits. They are the only team not to drop any game by more than 8 points. Minnesota was lucky to win at Chicago and should play much better returning home. The Vikings are ranked No. 3 in QB sacks (44) and ranked No. 2 in QB sacks allowed (22) this season. Strong combo. Imagine you're a football team (LAR) having to prepare/play for a night game than travel five days later for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game in week 16. The Vikings own the fifth-best special teams unit, while the Rams are ranked No. 17 this season. Kirk Cousins does his best work (58.4% ATS) in this time slot (1:00 PM E). Take the home underdog plus the points.

10*Central Florida +6.5

Motivation plays a big part when handicapping Bowl games. The Gators played three straight major bowl games past three seasons and now have to settle for this minor bowl game. Florida will be without departed head coach Dan Mullen and most of his staff. Future NFL studs DE Zach Carter and WR Jacob Copeland are OUT as well. It's likely more Gators will opt out. Florida went 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS, while ranking No. 121 in net turnover margin. Florida went 1-6 SU against bowl teams. Both squads have comparable offensive lines (38th and 39th). UCF is ranked No. 57 in defensive line play, while the Gators are ranked No. 96. Missing DE Zach Carter and his team-leading 8 sacks with 12 tackles for a loss only adds to their misery.

UCF head coach Gus Malzahn has sneaky revenge in this game. His Auburn Tigers lost to Florida 24-13 as 2.5-point underdogs in 2019. Gus is 21-11 ATS in his career seeking revenge. UCF has edges in red-zone scoring and penalties committed. UCF has the better offense and defense against fellow bowl teams. UCF won this Bowl (Gasparillia) game two years ago. Last year, UCF dropped the Boca Raton Bowl 49-23 against BYU. Take the Knights plus the points and try a slice on the money line! 

5*Atlanta Falcons +9

This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. The Falcons have been much better in the trenches since their BYE week, so the season long stats are skewed quite a bit. Atlanta defeated the 49ers back in 2019, as 10.5-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are 1-11-1 in their past 13 games as a favorite. SF is 3-10 ATS vs. losing teams of late. This game qualifies as a highly profitable system play. Home favorites following an OT game. Theses teams are 37-58-4 ATS (38.9%) since 2008. This angle also applies to the Saints this week. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season past three years. The 49ers play at Tennessee on Thursday so not much reason to win by margin. Take the road dog!

5*Marshall +6

UL Lafayette is coming off a victory over App. State for the second time this season. This seems like a flat spot after that sparkling performance. Marshall lost 53-21 at home against Western Kentucky in their final game of the regular season. The Thundering Herd average +1.3 net yards per play while UL owns a +0.9 net yards per play. Marshall has the better offense, special teams and red-zone stats. This game will be played at the Superdome in New Orleans. It's important to know that the playing surface (Turf Nation) is completely different than UL's home stadium, Cajun Field (Artificial turf). The Herd are 12-4 SU & 12-4 ATS in all bowl games since 1993. Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their past six games after allowing 40+ points. UL is 3-6 ATS as chalk this season. UL is 7-16 SU against Conference USA opponents since 1993. Look for the Rajin' Cajunes fall to 0-5 ATS in bowl games of late. Take the points and try a slice on the money line!

5*Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Tough spot for the 49ers with cluster injuries at RB and CB. Not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season, and third road game in 22 days. The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on turf this season. The turf in Cincinnati (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) is completely different than the turf in Seattle (Field turf). The Bengals' offensive line is ranked No. 10 at Football Outsiders, while SF is ranked No. 19 this season. Cincinnati will be getting both starting tackles back after missing last week's home loss. The Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run, while SF is ranked No. 18 this season. Cincinnati commits the fewest penalties per game (4.2) and are 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home. The Bengals are ranked No. 10 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 22 this season. Coldest game of the season for SF to date. They are 0-2 SU in cold weather games (40 or below at kickoff), but the kick-off temp should be closer to 44 degrees. I thought it was worth mentioning. Take the hungry host!

4*Sacramento Kings +6.5

Both teams played yesterday. Sacramento's Fox missed two free throws for the win. The Cavs had a season-high 7 players reach double figures in shooting over 52% from the field. This will be Cleveland's fourth game in six games. Very tough. The Cavs are 1-18 SU and 4-14 ATS vs. Pacific Division foes. The Kings are 20-10 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games. I like the road team in this spot!

5*Detroit Lions +7

This will be the Vikings' fourth road game in five weeks. Two of those games were on the West coast. The Lions will have three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, while Minnesota is allowing 4.8 this season. The Lions have the better offensive line, defensive line, and total defense at Football outsiders. Also, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams in all of football. If D. Swift doesn't play, Jamaal Williams is more than capable. The Vikings defense will be without E. Griffen, D. Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Hunter & Griffen had three sacks and one forced fumble combined in the first matchup. Teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS after playing the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Vikings play (Steelers) Thursday night so no reason to win by margin. Take the winless home underdog with the better defense!

3*Sacramento Kings +8.5

Both teams will be playing its third game in four days. The Kings committed 19 turnovers and shot 20.6% from beyond the arc last night. I like the fact that Sacramento just played at Staples while defeating the LA Lakers. The Kings are 3-1 SU in their past four meetings against LAC at Staples. Take the road dog!

4*Denver Broncos +3

Love the Broncos as division home underdogs. Denver is ranked No. 4 in opponent passer rating which should matchup well against the pass-happy Chargers. LA scored 40+ points last week and now travel to high-altitude. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Denver is 23-6 SU and 21-6 ATS when playing with two weeks of rest. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in weeks 10 thru 13 of late. Take the Broncos in this one!

4*California +6.5

The Bears had two dozen players (including QB) and coaches out with Covid in a loss against Arizona. They all returned in a dominating performance against Stanford last week. California needs two wins to become bowl eligible. UCLA has a bowl game already wrapped up with no chance of winning the PAC 12. California is ranked No. 36 in net yards per play. UCLA is ranked No. 55 in net yards per play. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after playing USC of late. UCLA is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. The Bears are 10-2 ATS as an underdog past 12 tries. I like the road dog!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I just think the Colts physical style of play can keep this one close in bad weather. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as 7-point home favorites back in Jan. despite getting outgained 472-397. Nice revenge spot. Take the road dog!

5*Houston Texans +10.5

Tyrod Taylor should be much better with a game in hand and more reps during their BYE week. His running and escape-ability plays well as big underdog. The Titans have played 11 straight weeks with five signature wins in a row. Tennessee has been outgained by 262 combined yards in their past two wins. Red flag. Seems like a flat spot with the New England Patriots on deck. Tennessee has a massive injury list. Take the road dog!

10*Oregon State +3

The Sun Devils have a very slim chance of catching Utah for the Pac-12 crown. Arizona State needed to score 21 fourth-quarter points in defeating Washington last week. The Beavers have advantages in points, yards, red-zone efficiency, special teams, and they are the more disciplined team. Oregon State has the No. 1 ranked offensive line at Football Outsiders. The Beavers overall power rating has increased every week. This will be the first back-to-back road trip for ASU all season. The Sun Devils are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. Check this out. Arizona State is 2-5 SU in cold weather games when traveling to CO, OR, UT, and WA. The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS as road chalk in their past 11 games. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS at home of late. Arizona State has played just two games on Field turf this season, going 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Oregon State is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS on the same surface (Field turf). I like the Beavers plus the points in this spot. Try a slice on the money line!

4*Memphis +9.5

This will be the Houston Cougars' fourth game in twenty days. Big advantage for Memphis. Both teams won and covered recently against SMU. Houston was +1 while Memphis was +3 playing at SMU. This line seems very high to me. Memphis has a really good offensive line (No. 39) and they even had the better stats against a common opponent. Houston is 3-11 ATS in their past 14 games after a SU win of 20+ points. Memphis is 6-0 ATS in this series of late. The Tigers won three games outright as underdogs. More of the same! 

5*LA Chargers -2.5

This will be the first West Coast game for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins sports a 1-5 SU record when playing on the West Coast with Minnesota. The Vikings played a physical overtime game against Baltimore last week, in which their defense was on the field for 89 plays and 46:04 of field time. The Chargers own a +0.3 yard differential, while the Vikings are -0.1 this season. Justin Herbert's QBR is 64.1 while Cousins' QBR is 55.3. The Chargers offensive line is ranked No. 17, while the Vikings are ranked No. 28 at Football Outsiders. NFL teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS after playing the Ravens without rest this season. Minnesota possibly missing six starters on defense and they play Green Bay at home next week. Take LAC!

5*Syracuse +3

The Orange had this game circled ever since the schedule was released. Syracuse lost 30-0 in Louisville last season. In a schedule quirk, they now return to the same venue with extra prep time, in hopes of becoming bowl-eligible. Syracuse is one of the most improved teams across the board. The Orange own a +1.3 net yard differential, while Louisville owns a +0.7. Syracuse owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and overall defense. The Orange play NC State and Pittsburgh who will be significant favorites. Look for the Orange to win outright and improve to 9-1 ATS this season.

5*San Francisco 49ers +2.5

The 49ers bring in the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. SF defensive line is ranked No. 5 while Arizona is ranked No. 21. Kyler Murray is questionable to start. I'm hearing Arizona wants to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. That won't be this week. Colt McCoy will start for Arizona. The 49ers lost 17-10 earlier this season, despite out-gaining Arizona 338-304. Kyle Shanahan knows how to defend Murray just in case he starts. I think this is the perfect time to start fading Kliff Kingsbury and company. Kyle Shanahan is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in revenge games over the past three years. Take the home dog!

4*Memphis +5

SMU suffered its first loss of the season last week and will now have to get motivated for another road game at Memphis. Tough ask considering the Mustangs are 3-9 ATS as road favorites past 12 tries. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS after their BYE week and will be playing with revenge from last year's setback. Memphis has a really good offensive line (#24 at Football Outsiders) that should negate SMU's solid defensive line. Take the home team plus the points in this spot!