Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-25-12 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Houston Rockets OVER 190 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
01/25 08:05 PM EST NBA (713) MILWAUKEE BUCKS (714) HOUSTON ROCKETS
Take: 20-Star NBA Powerhouse Total: Bucks/Rockets Over the total. Milwaukee has plenty of offensive talent to be scoring more points with Brandon Jennings pushing the basketball and big men Andrew Bogut and Drew Gooden, who are better offensive players than defensive ones. At least the offense is going after a rough start, winning 2 of the last 3 games, including a 100-86 win over the Knicks and a 91-82 win at Miami. The over is 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. They run into a Houston team that likes the uptempo game, scoring 105 and 107 points the last tow games, both wins. In fact, they've won 7 in a row and 8 of 9 while on a 4-2 run over the total. The offense is 7th in the NBA in points (97.9 ppg) and the over is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for a shootout; Play the Bucks/Rockets Over the total. |
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05-15-11 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 82-103 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
05/15 08:00 PM EST NBA (501) MIAMI HEAT (502) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total. Coach Tom Thibodeau earned that Coach of the Year trophy by bringing exceptional defense to the young Bulls. Chicago finished No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed, with 91.3 ppg, and Miami was No. 6 allowing 94.6 ppg. An even better indicator of defensive prowess is field goal shooting percentage allowed and these teams were No. 1 and 2 in the NBA during the regular season allowing 43% and .434% shooting by opponents. And we've seen that great defense all during the playoffs. Chicago allowed 73, 82, 83 and 73 points in the four wins over the Atlanta Hawks during their just completed playoff series. The Miami defense was outstanding all season, too, and was tremendous in shutting down Boston in their 5-game playoff series victory. The Under is 4-1 in the Heat's last 5 playoff games as an underdog, while the Under is 9-3 in the Bulls last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And between these teams, the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings when the Heat and Bulls show up. With so much at stake in this anticipated showdown, look for a fierce defense for Game 1. Play Game 1 Heat/Bulls Under the total! |
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05-07-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 200 | Top | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
05/07 05:05 PM EST NBA (721) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (722) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take: Oddsmaker Error Playoff Game of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total. A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Both Games 1 and 2 went over the total and oddsmakers haven't really adjusted. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5 overall. In fact, the Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 overall and they are 11-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City pushing it uptempo against Memphis, as well, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they have continued it in this series against the young Grizzlies. The last 6 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 6-0, and 13-3 over the total in the last 16 meetings! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 3 Over the total. |
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05-01-11 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 195.5 | Top | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
05/01 1:00 PM EST NBA (707) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (708) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: Second Round Total Shocker of the Year: Grizzlies/Thunder Over the total. A lot of talented young legs in this one, and both can run the floor with uptempo styles. Memphis has young point guard Mike Conley and Oklahoma City has the dynamic one-two offensive punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games playing on 1 days rest and they come into this one off that big upset of the top seeded Spurs. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in Grizzlies last 9 overall and they are 10-3 over the total in the Grizzlies last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. I can see Oklahoma City, a little more rested, pushing it uptempo against Memphis, who had that thrilling Game 6 win at home over San Antonio just two days ago. The Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oklahoma City played a breakneck pace against the Denver Nuggets, which is their style, and they will continue it against the young Grizzlies. The Over is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and the last 5 times that these teams have played each other, the over is a perfect 5-0! I see an offensive show from the first quarter on; Play the Grizzlies/Thunder Game 1 Over the total. |
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04-25-11 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
04/25 10:35 PM EST NBA (513) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (514) DENVER NUGGETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Oklahoma City is a talented young team with exceptional balance. Their offense gets all the attention with flashy Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but this defense has become very good quickly. They traded for Kendrick Perkins in midseason and he's added defense and rebounding, along with 21-year old 6-10 Serge Ibaka, who has emerged as an athletic shot blocker. After giving up 60 first half points in Game 1, the Thunder held the Nuggets to 42 second half points in their 107-103 comeback win. Then in Game 2 the defense was great in a 106-89 win, allowing .391% shooting with a whopping 54-31 rebounding edge. The Thunder is 7-3 in Thunder last 10 road games and 9-4 in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. They face a small Denver frontcourt, so they should continue to control the boards. The Under is 5-1-1 in Nuggets' last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, and the Under is 18-7-2 in Nuggets last 27 overall. Plus the Under is 23-10 in Nuggets last 33 Conference Quarterfinals games and the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. An offensive show? That's what oddsmakers expect, but they have overvalued this one, which should feature plenty of intense defense with so much at stake. Play the Thunder/Nuggets Under the total in Game 4! |
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04-21-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 189 | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
04/21 07:05 PM EST NBA (733) CHICAGO BULLS VS (734) INDIANA PACERS Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Eastern Conference Total of the Month: Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under. The No. 1 seeded Bulls won the first two games at home, 104-99 and 96-90, as the Bulls won the rebounding battle in those games 49-34 and 57-33! The Bulls have a young, physical frontcourt, No. 2 in the NBA in rebounding led by 6-9 Carlos Boozer (17.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg), and 26-year old 6-11 Joakim Noah (11.7 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and 26-year old 6-9 Luol Deng (17.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Chicago has the second stingiest defense in the league at 91.3 points per game and the best field goal percentage against in the league allowing 43% shooting. The Bulls 48-34 under the total, the Pacers 44-37-1 under the total -- and playoff action means even more fierce defense. The Pacers were the aggressors in Game 2 despite losing Roy Hibbert for long stretches to foul trouble, but having home court should help his foul trouble. But can they score? The Bulls have held Indiana to 41% shooting the last 10 times they've met! Look for a grind-it-out defensive game, Play the Bulls/Pacers Game 3 Under the total. |
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04-20-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 207 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
04/20 08:05 PM NBA (727) DENVER NUGGETS VS (728) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: Denver likes to run, but Oklahoma City has improved defense with the addition of Kendrick Perkins in the low post, blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Of course, Perkins is an offensively liability, and note the Thunder is on a 12-8 run under the total. That included three wins over this Denver team over the last two weeks, 2-1 under the total. Oklahoma City won 101-94 at Denver on April 5 holding the Nuggets to .439% shooting and a rebounding edge of 50-41. Then they met again April 8 and Denver was held to 89 points and 40% shooting in a 104-89 Oklahoma City rout. Game 1 was an uptempo affair, but I can't see that continuing. Playoff games mean so much that both teams usually bring far more defensive intensity than the regular season. And this betting number on the total has shot up from Game 1, so there is tremendous value. Denver plays its best basketball at home, but he Nuggets are 5-1-1 under the total their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the Under is 44-20-1 in the Nuggets last 65 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Play the Nuggets/Thunder Game 2 Under the total. |
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04-13-11 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 211 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
04/13 08:05 PM NBA (513) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (514) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS .
Take: High Roller: Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total. Final game of the season for a pair of teams long out of the playoff race. Neither play defense, with the Cavs ranked 23rd in points allowed and Washington 25th. And as far as field goal shooting defense, they are worse, ranked 25th and 27th. This being the finale, no one is going to care about defense and, like an All Star game, look for players to bad their stats by focusing on offense. The Over is 7-2 in the Wizards last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Cleveland has been more of an uptempo team since mid-season, as they have no inside defensive players or height. The over is 5-0 in the Cavaliers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. And what has happened when these two teams meet? The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Don't look for any defense, play the Wizards/Cavaliers Over the total. |
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04-02-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 92-98 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Clippers Under the total. Since big man Kendrick Perkins arrived, Oklahoma City has been a different team defensively: The Under is 8-3 for the Thunder's last 11 overall. Oklahoma City can play any style, but this is the second of a back to back spot after battling the Blazers last night. The Clippers had to run the floor with the uptempo Suns last night and wouldn't mind slowing the pace down, as well. The Under is 9-3 in the Clippers last 12 vs. Western Conference. I see a defensive battle, Play the Thunder/Clippers Under the total. |
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03-19-11 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 179 | Top | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
03/19 05:05 PM NBA (505) BOSTON CELTICS VS (506) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL. Reason: March Total of the Month: Celtics/Hornets Under the total. Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA meet: Boston is No. 2 in points allowed (91 ppg), New Orleans is No. 4 (93 ppg). They are also in the Top 8 in field goal shooting defense. The Celtics prefer not to run, especially in the second of a back to back spot like they find themselves in here. The Under is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston has had its defensive game face on, riding a 5-1 run under the total. New Orleans has little depth, which is why they play a slow pace, scoring the fourth fewest points allowed per game (94.8 ppg). The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 9-4 under the total in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. For New Orleans, the Under is 18-8 in Hornets last 26 home games and 40-19 under the total in the Hornets last 59 overall. And when these teams meet: A perfect 5-0 under the total the last 5, including an 83-81 Hornets win at Boston earlier this season. Play the Celtics/Hornets Under the total. |
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03-17-11 | Wofford v. Brigham Young OVER 147 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Wofford/BYU Over the total. A pair of uptempo teams meet here. Wofford averages 73.8 ppg and is 8th in the nation in field goal percentage, shooting .479% as a team, led by sharp-shooting 6-6 senior Noah Dahlman (20 ppg), who shoots 61% from the field. The Over is 4-1 in the Terriers last 5 neutral site games and 10-4 over the total in the Terriers last 14 games following an ATS win. BYU knows how to score, too, 8th in the nation with 81.6 ppg led by dynamic gaurd Jimmer Fredette, the Mountain West Player of the Year. He was named the MWC Tournament MVP where he averaged a tournament-record 35.3 points. He set BYU and MWC records with a 52-point performance against New Mexico in the semifinals. Fredette currently leads the nation in scoring at 28.5 points per game. The Over is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 8-3 over the total in the Cougars last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Play Wofford/BYU Over the total! |
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03-02-11 | Pittsburgh v. South Florida UNDER 124.5 | Top | 66-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: Big East Total of the Year: Pittsburgh/South Florida Under. Pittsburgh is in first place in the rugged Big East, and they didn't get there by being soft on defense. Winners of 15 of its last 18 overall games and 16 of its last 19 Big East regular season contests, No. 4 Pitt enters the game following a 62-59 overtime loss at No. 16 Louisville. The Panthers overcame 32 percent shooting and 22 first half points and a nine-point halftime deficit to battle back in the second half. The Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 vs. the Big East and 6-1 under in the Panthers last 7 road games. The Panthers claimed a 67-55 victory over the Bulls on Feb. 16 at the Petersen Events Center, which went under the total. The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 overall by the South Florida Bulls, as well. Can't see much scoring, especially by the home team. Play Pitt/South Florida Under the total. |
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02-09-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. Toronto Raptors OVER 201 | Top | 111-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
02/09 04:05 PM NBA (709) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (710) TORONTO RAPTORS
Take: over the total. Reason: NBA Bookie Buster Total of the Year: Spurs/Raptors Over. San Antonio is No. 6 in the NBA in scoring and second in three-point shooting, bombing away from beyond the arc at a sizzling .392%. They recently put 113 up on Sacramento, sailing over the total by 17 points. Who wouldn't want a BENCH of George Hill, Antonio McDyess, rookie Tiago Splitter and Gary Neal? The Spurs are off to their fastest start in history. They face a Toronto team that loves to run the court, but plays no defense, giving up 104.9 ppg, sixth worse in the NBA. Neither team is very good defensively at the three-pointer, and Toronto is 2-1 over the total its last three home games. Jose Calderon tied a career and franchise record for assists, and with Amir Johnson playing a game that coach Jay Triano lauded as "almost perfect," the Raptors beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 111-100, breaking off a 13-game losing streak. Andrea Bargnani had 30 points. Look for both teams to run the court all night long with little defense. Play the Spurs/Raptors Over the total. |
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01-25-11 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 194 | Top | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Clippers/Mavericks Under the total. The powerhouse offensive team against the powerhouse defensive team! The Clippers have a fine young offense, but note that the Under is 14-5 in Clippers last 19 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. They face a team that has transformed this season under Coach Rick Carlisle into a unit that has been impressive on defense, 10th in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed and sixth in points allowed (94 ppg). They come off an 87-86 win over New Jersey, part of a 5-2 run under the total. Dallas has the big men in the frontcourt to throw at young Blake Griffin and the under is 11-5 in Mavericks last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And look at the recent history of these teams: The Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall, plus the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. Look for a defensive game, Play the Clippers/Mavericks Under the total. |
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01-14-11 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 190 | Top | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Bulls/Pistons Under. The Chicago Bulls have a first-year coach in Tom Thibodeau, who ran Boston |
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01-04-11 | San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks OVER 208.5 | Top | 115-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 25-Star High Roller Total: Knicks/Spurs Over the total. Don't see any defense in this one. The big bad Spurs are on a 4-0 SU/ATS run and 2-1 over the total their last three road games, with scores of 113-112 and 123-101. This is the start of a 3-game road trip, but this deep team has had 2 full days off. They match up well with an uptempo New York team that doesn't defend the three-pointer well (21st in the NBA) and San Antonio is lights out with a sizzling 40% from beyond the arc, easily tops in the NBA. The Knicks allow .467 shooting overall, which is 24th in the NBA, a small team that prefers to push it up the court with newcomer Ray Felton, who has been a great addition. New York is No. 1 in points scored in the NBA (107.2 ppg) but 29th in points allowed. San Antonio is 10-2 on the road and the New York crowd will want to see an offensive show with a Western powerhouse in town. Play the Spurs/Knicks Over the total. |
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12-21-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 191.5 | Top | 76-121 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA High Roller Total of the Month: 76ers/Bulls Under the total. The Bulls are an excellent defensive team under new coach Tom Thibodeau. He was the assistant running the defense on the Celtics the last three years, which included two trips to the NBA Finals and consistently one of the best defensive teams in the league. They are on a 15-5 run under the total. For this game, the offense is without Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson played the last game but suffered a concussion the previous game. The Bulls played uncharacteristically small and flat with the Noah-less lineup that featured the 6-foot-9 Gibson at center and two other 6-9 players |
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12-15-10 | Milwaukee Bucks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 190 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total Powerhouse: Bucks/Spurs Over the total. The Bucks have gotten their offense going after a rough start to the season, riding a 6-3 run over the total. There is plenty of offensive talent, and they showcased that in an impressive 103-99 win at Dallas, one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. That game sailed over by 19 points. Now they face a deadly uptempo offense in San Antonio, the top three-point shooting team and one averaging 106.4 ppg, 4th highest in the league. Both teams are rested and the Spurs have topped 100 points in 13 of the last 17 games. Look for an offensive show, Play the Bucks/Spurs Over the total. |
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11-29-10 | Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 197 | Top | 91-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The Houston Rockets grabbed just their fifth win of the season on Sunday with a one-point home win over Oklahoma City, 99-98. It was the club's second win in the last three games after a drought of five losses in a row. The win was also just the Rockets second cover in the last seven games. But what is of particular value to me is their defense, or lack thereof. The Rockets have allowed over 100 points in four of their last six games. The Rockets started the season by allowing 107 or more in their first five games. Meanwhile, Dallas has been an under team this season, going 6-9 Over/Under on the season. This is mainly because they play such good defense, in fact, the Mavs are the third best defensive team in the NBA. Houston is 26th in the NBA in defense. And, while Dallas has not needed to score much to win, they have upped the tempo of late, scoring over 100 points in each of their last three games with all three going OVER. This series has been high scoring of late, with three of the last four meetings going OVER the number. In those three overs, the lowest combines score was 224. I am sticking with the OVER here on Monday, mainly because of the Houston defense. I see Utah easily getting over 100 points, and with a total of 197 (opening number) we only need about 93 out of Houston.
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11-23-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 203 | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bulls/Lakers Over the total. A pair of powerful offensive teams meet in LA: The Bulls and sparkplug guard Derrek Rose are 9th in the NBA in scoring (101.5 ppg) while the Lakers are No. 1 (112.5 ppg). Chicago is 6th in the NBA in field goal shooting, the Lakers are 4th. The young Bulls are not afraid to run the court with uptempo teams, scoring 112 on the Knicks and 120 on Golden State. The tall, deep, talented Lakers are just torching opponents, topping 100 points in 13 of 14 games. They just put 117 on the Golden State Warriors. The Lakers featured four players in double figures: They shot 55.7%. And they built enough of a lead for all the starters to rest in the fourth quarter and all but Pau Gasol to play less than 30 minutes. The Lakers scored 29 points in transition, and they imposed their front-line dominance with 56 points in the paint, 17 second-chance points. Look for the young Bulls to run right with the defending champs in an uptempo game. Play the Bulls/Lakers Over the total. |
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11-19-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics UNDER 201 | Top | 89-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Thunder/Celtics Under the total. After playing a string of uptempo offensive teams, Oklahoma City comes to Boston to play the defensive-oriented Celtics. These teams have already met and it was a 92-83 Boston win at Oklahoma City, 21 points under the total. Boston allows 45% shooting and a stellar 32% from beyond the arc. The 94.6 ppg they allow is 6th best in the NBA. They come off a win over Washington allowing 83 points and 38% shooting. The Celtics have won three in a row and eight of their past nine. When they met a few weeks ago, Kevin Durant scored 34 points and Westbrook had 16 points and 10 assists to lead Oklahoma City, but Boston was content to let the stars get theirs and shut down everyone else: The Thunder shot .427% in the game. This total is far too high as the Celtics turn up their defense on their home court, as usual: Play the Thunder/Celtics Under the total. |
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11-09-10 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 195.5 | Top | 80-107 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Take: over.
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk: NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. The NY Knicks are much improved from last season with Amare Stoudemire and Ray Felton leading an offense that is 10th in the NBA. The Knicks are in second place in the Atlantic, trailing Boston. But it's offense carrying the load as there are no defensive stoppers on this young, athletic but small frontcourt, allowing .465% shooting by opponents, 9th worst in the NBA. Their three-point defense has been particularly bad, allowing 37% shooting from long range. The Bucks had a hard time making shots the last game, sinking just 38.6% of their attempts in an 87-81 loss at home to New Orleans. But there's nothing wrong with the offensive talent on this team, led by Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut up front and Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings. Gooden and Bogut have always been strong offensive players, but weak in the low post defensively. New Orleans shot 45% from the field and over 41% from long range. Milwaukee has played a string of strong defensive teams in the Hornets (twice), Celtics, Blazers and Bobcats, but they get a chance to bust out offensively against the small, uptempo Knicks. Play the NY Knicks/Bucks Over the total. |
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11-04-10 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 195.5 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Knicks/Bulls Over. The NY Knicks have an uptempo offense and they are improved this season with Amare Stoudemire teamed with guard Raymond Felton. They are averaging 98 ppg and allowing 99 ppg. That uptempo offense is well rested for this game after that odd postponed game on Monday. They take on a Chicago team that is 12th in the NBA in offense averaging 102 ppg and fourth in field goal shooting (48%) behind Luol Deng and sparkplug guard Derrick Rose, who is off to a great start. Rose was averaging 33.5 points in Chicago's first two contests. Deng scored a career-high 40 points to lead the Chicago Bulls to a 110-98 victory over Portland on Monday night. Chicago has scored 101 and 110 points in two games and is 2-1 over the total. This has all the makings as an uptempo game from start to finish with these two young point guards putting on a show. Play the NY Knicks/Bulls Over the Total. |
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10-26-10 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Heat/Celtics Under the total. Both coaches in this one are very good at teaching defense and demanding it. It's Game 1 of the season, so you have to believe defense will be ahead of the offense for both teams. The Celtics have won 2 of the last 3 Eastern crowns and got better for this season, essentially swapping out Rasheed Wallace for Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. Both are asked to be role players off the bench, a perfect situation given their age. As impressive as Miami looks on paper, they are still a relatively short team and Boston has a big edge in the frontcourt with their defense and rebounding. Plus, the loss of 6th man Mike Miller is significan for the Heat offense, as he won't be around until January. Boston plays monster defense, especially at home, and both teams should bring their A-gam defensively as this will have a playoff-type atmosphere on national TV. Play the Heat/Celtics Under the total. |
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06-17-10 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 187 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: NBA Finals Game of the Year: Celtics/Lakers Under the total in Game 7. It has been a defensive series all the way, at 5-1 under the total. And many of these games haven't even been close to the total, with the losing team scoring 67, 86, 89, 84, 94 and 89 points. The Celtics are a veteran team that won a title with defense in 2008 and that has led the way in the 2010 playoffs. Since the start of Round 2, Boston is on a 12-6-1 run under the total. The Lakers had scored over 100 points in 11 straight playoff games until the Celtics beat them in Game 2, 103-94. The Lakers haven't come close to topping 100 since. The Lakers turned it up defensively the last game, dominating the paint and holding the Celtics to 67 points and 33% shooting. And now, with a Game 7, EVERYTHING is on the line, so expect both teams to bring their best defensive effort. I expect a slow, even cautious defensive game with so much at stake and the whole world watching. Play the Celtics/Lakers Game 7 Under the total. |
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05-27-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: Western Conference Playoff Total of the Year: Suns/LA Lakers Over the total in Game 5. The Lakers are on a 12-3-1 run over the total, and 7-0-1 over the total the last eight games against uptempo Utah and Phoenix. The last game the Phoenix reserves outscored the Laker reserves, 54-20, in the Suns' 115-106 victory on Tuesday night. The main problem is defense: Said Lakers Coach Phil Jackson: "We shot 49%, didn't we? That's pretty good. Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn't say we're struggling against the zone. I think we're struggling at the defensive end. That's where I see it." Kobe Bryant was even more to the point: "We lost the game because our defense sucked." Phoenix has found a flaw, attacking the LA bench, which is no surprise as it has been a weakness all season. On offense, the Lakers have a big size advantage, with 7-foot Andruw Bynum, 7-foot Paul Gasol and 6-10 Lamar Odom. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. But their defense has been suspect, as the Lakers shot 58% and 56% in Games 1 and 2, scoring 124 and 128 points on this floor, 48.3% and 49.5% the last two. The last 18 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 13-5 over the total. Play the Suns/Lakers Game 5 Over the total. |
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05-26-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 186.5 | Top | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Game 5 Under the total. Game 5s of any series have so much at stake, as does this one. That means intense defense from both sides. For this game, the Magic -- the top ranked defense in the NBA during the regular season in field goal shooting percentage allowed -- must win or they go home. They really picked up the defense in Game 4 to stay alive, disrupting Boston all night. This has been a defensive series, at 4-0 or 3-0-1 under the total. Boston matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 on this floor, and only 71 points in Game 3. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and has scored 88, 92, 71 and 96 points in the four games (the last one in OT). The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's poor overall play, with Kevin Garnett on him. Doc Rivers said, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-22-10 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Magic/Celtics Under the total. Boston is up 2-0 and matches up great with Orlando. Their attention to defense in the playoffs has been incredible, wiping out top seeded Cleveland in six games (winning 4 of the final 5) and now frustrating the Orlando Magic into 41.6% and 39% shooting in Games 1 and 2 -- both on the road. Boston matches up so well, with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis three big, physical bodies to harrass Dwight Howard, who has looked frustrated at times. The rest of the Boston strategy is to throw everybody along the perimeter defensively to get a hand in the face of every Orlando player taking a three-pointer, which is their game. Orlando was 5 of 22 from long range in Game 1 and holding them to 88 and 92 points in the two games. The Magic have seldom been able to set the tempo or smoothly execute pick-and-rolls, which has contributed to Rashard Lewis's 4-for-16 shooting slump. Doc Rivers said this week, "Our focus is transition Defense. We don |
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05-17-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-128 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Game 1 Suns/Lakers Over the total. The last 14 meetings between these uptempo teams have gone 9-5 over the total. Phoenix has the top offense in the NBA (110.4 ppg) with an attacking style behind 36-year old PG Steve Nash (16.6 ppg, 11 apg) and 27-year old Amar'e Stoudemire (23.2 ppg, 9 rpg). 6-6 Jason Richardson (15.7 ppg) adds more offensive punch and shoots 39% from beyond the arc. Richardson is averaging 21.9 points and shooting 51% in the playoffs. The Lakers have no problem going uptempo with anyone, and there's no doubt Phoenix will try and push the pace. The Lakers are on an 8-3-1 run over the total, and 3-0-1 over the total the last four games against uptempo Utah. The Suns will get plenty of production from the ageless Steve Nash (36 years old, averaging 17.8 points and nine assists in the playoffs) and the effervescent Amare Stoudemire, but the Suns are a 31-4 when guard Jason Richardson scores 20 or more points, including their victories in a Western Conference semifinals sweep of San Antonio. Look for a wide open Game 1, Play the Suns/Lakers Over the total. |
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05-16-10 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5 | Top | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 30-Star NBA Playoff Total of the Year: Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. Orlando has turned up the defense in the postseason, on a 5-2 run under the total. Actually, they've been a terrific defensive team all season, ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, allowing .438% shooting. They take on a Boston team that won a championship in 2008 with great defense and is back playing it again because Kevin Garnett is healthy. Boston just threw a blanket on the Cavaliers in their 6-game upset, on a 3-2 run under the total. Outside of the Game 3 debacle, the Celtics held the Cavs to 86, 87, 88 and 85 points the last four games. I wonder how in sync the Boston offense will be after that physical, grueling series with Cleveland. And I wonder how in sync the Orlando offense will be, not only facing a fired up Boston defense, but the fact that they haven't played a game in 6 days. When you examine the regular season meetings between these teams, you see nothing but MONSTER defensive efforts: 83-78, 86-77 and 96-94...and those were just regular season games, so much more is at stake here. Orlando is the second worst free throw shooting team in the NBA, so look for a lower scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate. Play the Celtics/Magic Game 1 Under the total. |
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05-04-10 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Lakers Under. Lost in the shuffle of the LA comeback in Game 1 was the Lakers' defense, holding uptempo Utah to 44% shooting. The Lakers were in command of Game 1 as their frontcourt had a +5 rebounding edge, as Pau Gasol had 25 points and 12 rebounds while blocking five shots. This is a tough situational spot for the Jazz, who had to finish up a series against the Denver Nuggets, then play Game 1 less than two days later on the road and now Game 2 -- so that's 3 games in 6 nights of intense aaction. It's going to be difficult on their offense with tired legs, especially playing 2 straight on the road. LA has put its game face on the last three games, all wins, ripping the Thunder on this court in Game 5 and winning at Oklahoma City as a dog. These teams have played 5 times this season and the under is 4-1. With so much at stake, look for both teams to play better defense. Play the Jazz/LA Lakers Under the total in Game 2. |
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04-26-10 | Blazers(Portland) v. Suns(Phoenix) OVER 202 | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
The Portland Trailblazers tied up this series with Phoenix at two games apiece. After looking terrible in the previous two games, the Blazers got an injection of Brandon Roy for game four. Roy, who was expected to miss this series with an injury, came back in game four and gave the Blazers the shot in the arm they desperately needed. "I didn't come back to have one good game," Roy said. "I came back to try to help this team win the series. It's important we get over the emotional high of last game and get ready to play a tough basketball game at Phoenix." This is the pivotal game for Phoenix, as they Suns can ill afford to go down 3-2 and return to Portland for a game six. For some reason, the Suns abandoned their aggressive, fast paced style that have garnered them two blowout wins in games two and three. The Suns only hope here is to return to that style of play. Suns coach Alvin Gentry probably put it best after the loss. "I don't understand it. I really don't," he said. "That's the one thing we have to get away from. I keep telling everyone and I'll say it again: If you walk it up and they (Portland) get in a half-court situation I think their defense is as good as anybody's in the NBA." Expect to see Steve Nash push the tempo in this game and get the Blazers out of that half court defense. If that happens, then fully expect this game to go OVER the total on Monday.
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04-23-10 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. Dallas has plenty of strong offensive options, but this team is no defensive dynamo. That was a problem in Game 2 as San Antonio shot 48% while grabbing 51 rebounds (16 offensive). Even in losing Game 1, San Antonio shot 50%. The Spurs also have a ton of offensive options, with Tim Duncan up front, Tony Parker in the backcourt and Manu Ginobili from everywhere. San Antonio is not the dominant defensive team they used to be when winning championships, as age has crept up on them. And Dirk Nowitzki has tallied 24 and 36 points in two games. If you need free throws late in the game, Dallas is a lock, tops in the NBA from the free throw line, with Dirk making 88 in a row before missing one the last game. The Spurs are averaging 97.5 ppg in the playoffs and the over is 7-1 their last 8 home games. I see an offensive show, play the Mavericks/Spurs Over the total. |
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04-19-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 212.5 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker definitely has adjusted the total here in game two. I thought the total for game one was way off and I gave out the OVER as one of my 20* Hi Roller plays, an easy winner. They have adjusted a bit here, pushing the total up about 3-4 points, but I'm still sticking with the OVER. In fact, I'm coming right back with another of my 20* Hi Roller totals on this contest. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 8-0 over the total their last 8 meetings in Denver, and 10-1 over the total their last 11 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218 and 239 in Saturday's contest. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total again and don't worry about the line adjustment.
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04-17-10 | Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 209 | Top | 113-126 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. Many teams like to slow the pace down in the postseason, but not these teams. They have loads of offensive weapons and love the uptempo game. They mirror each other in so many ways. The Nuggets have Kenyon Martin back, but the defense has really slipped the last month without coach George Karl around. That defense gets a tough test as Utah shoots 49% from the field as a team, tops in the NBA. Utah has a sparkplug guard in Derron Williams (18.6 ppg, 10.6 apg), and a string of hard working young legs in Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap (24 rebounds in a game last week). These teams are 7-0 over the total their last 7 meetings in Denver, and 9-1 over the total their last 10 meetings on this court. And the point total they struck for in the last 7 meetings: 231, 218, 214, 216, 233, 229 and 218. Play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total. |
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04-10-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 190.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. Both teams will bring their 'A' game intensity on defense, as they are in a race for playoff seeding in the East. And these defenses have talent. The Bucks have been a defensive revelation the second half of the season, on a 22-11-1 run under the total. They just hels the Bulls to 74 points in a game with playoff-type intensity, and lost 87-86 to Charlotte in another game that sailed under. Milwaukee is deadlocked with Miami for the No 5 playoff slot. They like to slow the pace down, and that's fine with the aging Celtics, as they prefer playing a slow, defensive-oriented tempo. They've struggled all season against athletic, uptempo teams, too. The Celtics are tied with Atlanta for playoff seeding, so they will bring their best defensive effort here and be thankful to slow the pace down. The Celtics have played a whole string of uptempo teams of late, but the last time they played a defensive-oriented squad, it was a 94-73 loss to San Antonio, going under the total by 25 points! This has all the makings of a slow-paced, defensive battle between two playoff teams. Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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04-08-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 203.5 | Top | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Lakers/Nuggets Under the total.
The Lakers are a very good defensive team, despite all the flashy offensive stars, 9th in the NBA in points allowed and 5th in field goal shooting defense. They have been an under the total team the second half of the season, and currently are on a 7-3 run under. The Lakers have lost three of their last four games with the bench play just awful: In those three loses, their bench has been outscored 110-38. Center Andruw Bynum has sat out eight games because of a strained Achilles' tendon and might not play again in regular season. So if Phil Jackson wants to rest the starters any, they aren't getting any offense from the pine. The reserves scored only four points in an ugly loss to San Antonio; The reserves were outscored 42-12 by the New Orleans Hornets' reserves and 48-22 by the Atlanta Hawks' reserves. They run into a Denver team that is playing tough defense, right in the thick of the West's playoff seedings race. Denver has held three of the last five opponents to 96 points or less, though the offense hasn't been sharp because Denver forward Kenyon Martin (knee) is still out. Denver is on an 8-2 run under the total. With the defending champs in town, look for plenty of defense by the home team (when they met 5 weeks ago it was a 95-89 game, 25 points under the total. Play the Lakers/Nuggets Under the total. |
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04-03-10 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 188 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: 20-Star NBA High Roller Total: Bobcats/Bulls Under the total. This game should have a playoff-type atmosphere, as both teams are fighting down the stretch. Charlotte is in great shape to make the playoffs as a No. 6, 7 or 8 seed because they are so strong defensively under Coach Larry Brown. They are 7th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense and tops in points allowed (93.6 ppg). This is a slow-down defensive team, and there's no reason for them to go uptempo playing their third game in four nights plus the second of a back to back spot. Chicago is out of the playoffs at present but not too far behind Toronto for that last spot. Chicago is getting healthy, with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah back. They are playing like a motivated team, especially on defense, on a recent 7-4 run under the total. Coach Vinny Del Negro confirmed the coaching staff has discussed starting Joakim Noah for the final seven games of the season, a strong inside force. Charlotte plays its best offensively at home, but they are 5-0 under the total their last 5 road games. Chicago is 4-1 under the total its last 5 home games. With quite a bit at stake, look for an intense defensive game. Play the Bobcats/Bulls Under the total! |
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04-03-10 | Michigan State v. Butler UNDER 126 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
Take: Under
Reason: Can't see much scoring here, as Butler slows the tempo down (9-3 under run), as does Michigan State (6-4-1 under run). Butler (32-4) is about tempo and defense, allowing 59.6 ppg. The Bulldogs slow the pace down, on a 3-0 run under the total allowing 45, 59, 52, 59 and 56 points the last five games. They beat Syracuse (63-59 as +6 dog) and K-State (63-56 as +4), while on a 9-3 run under the total. They are patient on offense and have excellent low post defenders with 6-9 soph Gordon Hayward (15.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg), 6-8 junior Matt Howard (11.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and 6-3 senior F Willie Veasley (10 ppg, 4.3 rpg) up front. Michigan State (28-8 SU; 15-19 ATS) held uptempo Tennessee to 69 points and beat slow-down Northern Iowa, 59-52. It's tough to see the Spartans running as their depth is hurting: Michigan State is without its top scorer, Kalin Lucas (14.8 ppg), out 4-6 months (lost 2 weeks ago). Also, Michigan State guard Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) is playing but with a torn ligament, plus forward Delvin Roe (the sixth leading scorer) has a torn meniscus in his right knee and is expected to have surgery once the Spartans' season is over. Rose shot 1-for-4 with 0 rebounds (though a team leading 3 blocks) the last game. I see a lot of defense from start to finish with so much at stake in this slow-paced battle. Play Michigan State/Butler Under the total! |
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03-31-10 | Clippers(LA) v. Raptors(Toronto) OVER 204 | Top | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Clippers/Raptors Over the total.
The Clippers have been getting their offense in gear, topping 99 or more in four of six recent games. They have offensive talent with point guard Baron Davis, Drew Gooden, Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon. Of course, the defense has been useless all season no matter who the coach is, allowing .468% shooting, 22nd in the league. They take on a Toronto team that has awful transitional defense, something the Clippers and Davis can exploit. Toronto is just as bad on defense, allowing .466% shooting (20th) and 105.5 ppg -- fourth worst. They had a big game at home against Utah and got torched in a 26-point loss, giving up 113 points. They just played two defensive-oriented teams in Miami and Charlotte and allowed 97 and 101 points. This is a difficult scheduling spot for the Clippers, their 3rd game in 4 nights and the second of a back to back road spot. They are 7-3 over the total in the second of back to back road situations, allowing 109 ppg. I can't see either team stopping the other, so look for an offensive show. Play the LA Clippers/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-24-10 | Utah Jazz v. Toronto Raptors OVER 214 | Top | 113-87 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
Take: over the total.
Reason: High Roller Total: Jazz/Raptors Over the total. The Toronto transition defense is just terrible, a combination of too many aging legs and offensive players ill-suited for defense. And who comes to town: Young, uptempo Utah! Toronto is allowing 110 ppg at home this season and overall is 20th in the NBA in points allowed. They are in a truly wretched defensive stretch right now, giving up over 100 points in eight of the last nine games. Utah is loaded with offensive players, from Mehmet Okur, C.J. Miles, Carlos Boozer and sparkplug guard Deron Williams. Williams had 22 points and 11 assists the last game, a 110-97 win over a strong Boston defense. Williams got his 36th double-double. Utah is fifth in the NBA in scoring at 103.7 ppg and is on an 11-5 run over the total. Both teams are rested for this one, so look for an uptempo game with no defense. Play the Jazz/Raptors Over the total. |
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03-17-10 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz OVER 214 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
Reason: NBA High Roller Total: Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total.
Minnesota is a terrible defensive team, surrendering 106.8 ppg and .475% shooting by opponents. Youth is a part of the problem, but another part is that the organization is building around young offensive players. There are no stellar defensive players, individually or as a unit, plus the coach doesn't know how to teach 'D'. This is a terrible situational spot, as well, playing the second of a back to back road spot, after running up and down the court with Phoenix last night. Minnesota is 9-2-1 over the total in the second of back to backs. Utah is rested for this one, an uptempo team behind Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams that averages 103.4 ppg (fifth best in the NBA). They are on a 9-3 run over the total and will run right at the tired visitors. The last six meetings between these teams have gone over the total, plus 14-3 over the last 17 meetings. Look for a lot of layups by the home team and plenty of points. Play the Timberwolves/Jazz Over the total. |
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03-15-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 222 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The LA Lakers maintain a three game lead in the west over the Nuggets and 3 1/2 games over the Mavericks. The Lakers have won two straight games and six of their last 10. Meanwhile Golden State has a modest three game winning streak of its own. While the Warriors have no hopes of post season, teams always get some satisfaction of playing good and beating the Lakers. That's the kind of effort I expect here today. I'm taking the OVER here on Monday between these teams. They have already met three times this season with two of the three going OVER with point totals of 227 and 242. But what really stands out for me in this matchup is when the teams meet up north. The last 44 times these teams have met at Golden State they have gone over 30 times, that's just over 68% of the time. And the Lakers have scored a lot of points too. In the last 12 trips to GST, the Lakers have scored 110 points or more in 10 of those contest. And this season the Warriors are dead last in the league in points allowed (111.1 ppg). I expect a high scoring affair here as Koke and Company have little trouble scoring points. If we can get Golden State motivated, which they should be, then this is an OVER contest.
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03-12-10 | New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 210.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Take: over
Reason: High Roller Total: Knicks/Memphis Over the total. The NY offense is back to a run and gun style, on an 11-5 run over the total. Of course, that hasn't helped in the win column, giving up over 104 ppg. The Knicks have allowed over 100 points in 13 of the last 16 games, and 110 or more in 11 of those. The offense averages over 100 points, but the soft defense allows .480% shooting by opponents -- that is tied with New Jersey for last in the NBA. Things get tougher this game as they head to uptempo Memphis, a team with a ton of young offensive talent with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph. They come off a stunner, shooting 55% at Boston in a 111-91 upset. O.J. Mayo made seven of eight shots en route to 17 points. They are on a 5-2 run over the total. The Memphis offense will be motivated after that big win at Boston, as they are still 3 games out of the Western Conference |
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03-09-10 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 188 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/Bucks Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. And what has happened the last three games? All under the total with sensational defensive efforts, allowing 86, 83 and 80 points. endrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender, 3-0 under since he came back. They should have lost the last game, at home to the Wizards, as the offense was terrible, but the Green hung tough with a monster defensive effort and were able to rally late. so they've gone under the total the last three games by 6, 14 and 24 points, an average of 14 points under the Vegas number. Milwaukee's second half surge has been impressive, and it's been molded with a very impressive defense. This team used to have a run-and-gun reputation, but they have become a tough defensive team. Oddsmakers haven't caught up, either, as the Bucks are on a 14-5 run under the total. Can't see as much scoring as oddsmakers anticipate; Play the Celtics/Bucks Under the total. |
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03-07-10 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
Normally when we think of the Portland Trailblazers we think "defense." I don't think the word "OVER" comes first to mind. But surprisingly this team has some good over spots and today is one of them. I'm going with the OVER here. First, the Blazers have been a good over bet on the road as the last three road games have gone OVER and nine of the last 11 away contest have gone OVER. And what kind of surprised me even more than that was the fact that Portland has scored over 100 points in each of its last nine away games. Second, we couple this road scoring binge with the fact that the Denver Nuggets are the 22nd ranked scoring defense in the league. The Nuggets allow an average of 102.56 ppg overall this season. Thirdly, we toss in a Denver offense that has gone OVER the total in four straight home games and 10 of its last 13 home games. The Nuggets have the second ranked scoring offense in the league and the top rated scoring offense at home (112.22 ppg). All in all, this game shapes up as a good old fashioned shoot out. I'll take the OVER here as one of my red-hot Hi Roller totals and look for at least 210 or more in this one.
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03-05-10 | Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 197.5 | Top | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Take: UNDER
Reason: High Roller Total: Celtics/76ers Under the total. In the past two months, the Celtics have struggled against inferior opponents (Nets, Bulls) blown big leads against elite teams (Cavaliers, Magic), and have been beaten in the final minute (Lakers). The problem has been a sporadic defense, along with injuries. But this team is very talented, especially on the defensive end -- WHEN they have their heads on to play tough defense. The Celtics put their game faces on the last contest, cruising to a 104-80 win, holding Charlotte to 36 percent shooting. Kendrick Perkins was back after missing the Celtics' game against the Pistons with flu-like symptoms. Perkins is a terrific big body in the paint, an excellent defender. That game sailed under the total and they are a team capable of ripping off a string of unders -- like a recent 12-3 under the total run -- when they have their best defensive effort. This is a divisional rivalry game. The 76ers are without Allen Iverson and have score 95 or fewer points in 3 of the last 4 games. They are also on a 15-9 run under the total. The last time they met on this floor earlier this season, the game went under the total by double digits as the 76ers scored 74 points. Play the Celtics/76ers Under the total. |
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03-03-10 | Detroit Pistons v. New York Knicks OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
Reason: High Roller Total: Pistons/Knicks Over the total.
On the plus side, the Detroit offense has been better the second half of the season because their top offensive players are finally healthy. On the flip side, the defense has been playing poorly. They gave up 101 in a win over the Spurs and 97 in an ugly loss to the Clippers. They also gave up 116 in a blowout loss to Orlando. This is a tough situational spot, playing their fifth road game over the last six games, plus the second of a back to back spot, taking on the rival Celtics last night. Hard to see Detroit having the legs to play defense here. That means the Knicks will run right at them, which is their preferred style anyway. The Knicks are rested and running, scoring 109, 106 and 119 the last three games. But the main reason they are on a 9-1 run over the total is a defense that has gone to sleep (thanks, Tracy McGrady), allowing 110 points or more in 9 of the last 10 games! And some of the games have been frightening, allowing 121 to Oklahoma City, 110 to struggling Boston, 116 to Washington (in a win) and 120 to Memphis. In back to back games against the Bulls, the Knicks allowed 115 and 118 points, so it's not that the opponent has a hot shooting hand; NY just doesn't feel like making an effort on defense and we'll grab another shootout. Pistons/Knicks Over the total. |
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03-01-10 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 210 | Top | 93-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
I'm looking at the OVER in tonight's contest between the Knicks and Cavs. It hasn't been a great trade yet for the Knicks since they acquired Tracy McGrady from the Rockets. McGrady sat out the second half of Saturday's game against the Grizzlies saying he didn't want any setbacks after his knee was sore. Having played in back-to-back nights, MrGrady felt it best to sit the second half and not push his return. Or could it have been his ineffectiveness in the 1st half, going 0-3 and not logging a single point. Not exactly the production the Knicks were expecting. Still, the Knicks have been a great bet for OVER plays lately, having eclipsed the total in three straight games and nine of the last 10. Poor defense has a lot to do with it though, having allowed over 110 points in the last three games and nine of the last 10 games. Let me say that again, they have allow OVER 110 points in nine of the last 10 games. Tonight they have to face the league's seventh highest scoring team in Cleveland. I fully expect this Cavs team to get at or over 120 points in this one. The Cavs have scored over 100 points in 10 of the last 12 games. They have had two days of rest for this contest and next up is lowly New Jersey. I also like the fact that Shaquille O'Neal will be lost to the Cavs, likely for the rest of the regular season with surgery on this thumb. If anything the loss of O'Neal hurts the club more on defense and any less of that is good for our OVER. The key here will be if New York can get us at or just over 100 points. If they can, this one should fly over. Take the OVER as our Hi Roller Total for Monday.
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02-26-10 | Utah Jazz v. Sacramento Kings OVER 201.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
NBA High Roller Total: Jazz/Kings Over the total.
Sacramento is terrible on defense, allowing 47% shooting -- 24th in the NBA. All those lay-ups allowed explains why they are giving up 105.8 ppg, fourth worst in the league. That's a bad mix here, as Utah comes to town with an uptempo attack shooting .49% from the field, No. 1 in the NBA. The Jazz offense has been clicking on this terrific winning streak they've been on the last two months. Carlos Boozer is on his way to validating the Jazz's decision to keep him for the remainder of the season, answering the call in the four games since general manager Kevin O'Connor's phone stopped ringing. The reigning Western Conference Player of the Week, Boozer helped the Jazz shrug off a 13-point deficit in the third quarter Wednesday and finished with 33 points and 16 rebounds on 13-for-16 shooting in a 102-93 victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Sparkplug guard Deron Williams returned from a right quad contusion with 20 points and 12 assists. The Kings defense has really been soft of late, allowing 101, 104, 99 and 130 points the last four games -- all losses. All in all, look for far more offense this game than defense. Play the Jazz/Kings Over the total. |
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02-16-10 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 221.5 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
Reason: NBA Total of the Year: Suns/Grizzlies Over the total.
Memphis is not a good team at defending the three-pointer, 19th in the league. And here comes the top team from long range into town, shooting .407% from beyong the arc. The Suns aren't always on their game in the second of back-to-back spots with veteran Steve Nash turning 36 this weekend. But they are well rested for this one after the All-Star break. Both teams prefer the uptempo game, ranked No. 1 and No. 6 in the NBA in points scored. Phoenix averages 109.9 points per contest. Memphis is on a 15-9 run over the total with a ton of talented mostly-young offensive players, but short on defense with Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol. In fact, defensively Memphis is nonexistent, allowing 48% shooting by opponents -- third worst in the NBA. These teams played each other twice in January and both meetings sailed over the total. The last meeting went 18 points over the total in a 125-118 Phoenix win, and the Grizzlies won the other meeting in early January by scoring 128 points, running right at the Suns with their young lineup. The OVER is 9-2 the last 11 meetings between these teams, and 3-0 over this season averaging 236 points. Look for an offensive show all night long; Play the Suns/Grizzlies Over the total. |
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02-05-10 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 195.5 | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
High Roller Total, 76ers/Hornets Under. Philadelphia has been an under-machine, on a 10-2 run under the total. And one of those OVERs was in overtime. Neither of these teams is very good at shooting the basketball, ranked 19th and 20th in the NBA in field goal shooting. Making matters worse for the Hornets is the loss of star guard Chris Paul, a great scorer and play-maker. The All-Star point guard is out after knee surgery. With the Hornets in transition until Paul returns, forward James Posey had to spend substantial time in the backcourt the last game, a loss to Oklahoma City. Paul is expected to be sidelined up to a month, and the Hornets received more bad news when guard Marcus Thornton bruised his lower back after falling hard on a driving shot in the fourth quarter. Thornton, who scored a game-high 22 points, did not return for the final 7:59 and is listed as day to day. New Orleans squandered an opportunity to move back to the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. New Orleans has gone under the total the last two games. Philadelphia prefers a slower tempo and has gone under 100 points in regulation in 9 of the last 11 games. Play the 76ers/Hornets Under the Total.
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02-03-10 | Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Bulls/76ers Over the total.
The hot streak the Chicago Bulls have been on has been sparked by offense, mainly by the play of guard Derrick Rose. On that terrific road trip they just concluded, Rose averaged 23.6 points and 5.4 assists and the second-year guard consistently displayed his newfound comfort level in taking over games down the stretch. Center Brad Miller is a far better passer and offensive force than defensive one. This will be the Bulls' 8th road game over the last 9 games, plus the second of a back to back spot. Tired legs hurts the defense more than offense. In the last three games playing the second of a back to back spot, the Bulls are 3-0 over the total, going over by wide margins. The 76ers are rested and have allowed 98 ppg the last 5 games, plus allow 47% shooting by opponents, one of the worst marks in the league. Look for an offensive show, play the Bulls/76ers Over the total! |
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01-29-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 201.5 | Top | 99-91 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
NBA High Roller Total: Lakers/76ers Over the total.
Philadelphia is a lousy defensive team, allowing over 47% shooting by opponents -- 7th worst in the NBA. They also allow over 100 ppg. The Lakers come to town with so many offensive options inside and out, alongside superstar Kobe Bryant. LA is sixth in the NBA in scoring, but the defense hasn't been sharp on the road. Coach Phil Jackson said, "Our middle is really soft. We're giving up a lot of penetration and whenever you give up that amount of penetration you're going to get hurt both inside, outside and usually at the foul line. It's a combination of both our guards keeping guys in front of them and our big guys reacting to help." They just went three straight games over the total on this road trip, giving up 105 points in back to back games to Toronto and NY, and 105, 106, 103 and 96 points the last four games. In the loss to the Raptors, Toronto transformed 13 turnovers into 20 points. "There's no way we should have lost this game," Andruw Bynum said. "We had the scoring. We just can't stop them." Bynum is averaging 15.8 points and 8.4 rebounds this season, but his defense has lagged at times. The Lakers should have little trouble scoring on the 76ers as the offense has been red-hot on this trip, scoring 115, 105, 115 and 118 points the last four games. Play the Lakers/Pacers Over the total. |
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01-25-10 | Orlando Magic v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 204.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
The Orlando Magic have won three straight games after beating up on Charlotte Saturday, 106-95. The Magic are tied for first place in the East's Southeast Conference with Atlanta. Orlando is 9th in the league in scoring at 101.27 points per game and seventh in defensive scoring, allowing 96.20 points per game. The Memphis Grizzlies have been playing their best ball of the season, winners of seven of their last 10 games. The Grizzlies are in a very competitive Southwest division where only 5 1/2 games separate first from last. Memphis is coming off a win at home on Friday over Oklahoma City, 86-84. The win was the Grizzlies 10th straight at the FedEx Forum despite shooting a poor 39.2% from the field. Despite the low output, the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in four of their last six games and 12 of their last 17. The Grizzlies are fourth in the league in points scored with an average of 103.95 and 24th in points allowed with a 103.86 average. The biggest difference this season is that of Zach Randolph. Randolph is the club's leading scorer (20.9 ppg) and has averaged 25.8ppg and 14.4 rebounds during their 10 game home winning streak. Orlando plays good defense, but Memphis is shooting well at home during this streak and they should easily break 100 points. Consider the fact that Memphis doesn't play the best defense and this game will go OVER tonight.
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01-22-10 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks OVER 200.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Lakers/Knicks Over the total.
The uptempo Lakers and Knicks meet here, with NY 13th in scoring in the league, the Lakers 6th. The Knicks have had 3 full days off for this and it's a great spot to go uptempo as the defending champion Lakers are in the second of a back to back road spot, playing at Cleveland last night. The Knicks have their sparkplug back and it is paying dividends. Nate Robinson scored 27 points Monday to lead the New York Knicks to a 99-91 victory over Detroit. Robinson was benched for 14 games last month before coach Mike D'Antoni returned him to the rotation, needing the guard's energy off the bench. The last time they played an uptempo team, the Knicks lost 114-102 to Toronto -- and the Lakers have better offensive options. Look for an offensive show in this national TV game. Play the Lakers/Knicks Over the total. |
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01-20-10 | Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
High Roller Total, Jazz/Spurs Over the total: Two of the three meetings between these teams have gone over the total this season. Going back even further, six of last seven in series have gone OVER. Utah comes in on a 5-2 run over the total, an athletic young teams that loves the uptempo style under sparkplug guard Deron Williams. Utah averages over 100 ppg. We think of the Spurs as a defensive oriented team, but they are terrific on offense this season averaging 101 ppg, 9th best in the NBA. Both teams have outstanding offensive options in the low post and long range. When teams collapse in the low post on Tim Duncan the Spurs love to kick it out for open threes and San Antonio is nailing 38% of its three pointers, this best in the league. The OVER is a sizzling 12-4-1 the last 17 games in series, including 7-1-1 Over the total the last 9 games in San Antonio. Play the Jazz/Spurs Over the total.
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01-09-10 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 197 | Top | 81-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
20-Star High Roller Total: Hawks/Magic Under the total.
This is a tough spot for both offenses with tired lgs: It's the 3rd game in 4 night for Atlanta, the 4th game in 5 nights for Orlando. It's also the second of a back to back spot for both teams. Orlando is a strong defensive teams, allowing 44% shooting by opponents -- 5th best in the NBA. Orlando has been a strong under team that last two weeks, plus the last two meetings between these teams have gone under the total. The last meeting wasn't even close, in a 93-76 Orlando win, sailing under the total by 26 points. That's not surprising, as these teams are No. 1and 2 in the division, so there is a playoff-type atmosphere when these teams get together. Orlando currently has a slight lead for first place in the Southeast division over the Hawks, so look for another tough defensive duel. Play the Hawks/Magic Under the total. |
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12-30-09 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 200 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Hi-Roller Total: Jazz/Timberwolves Over the total.
Utah is strong at home, but just 5-9 on the road because of lousy defense. Utah is 11-7 over the total the last 18 games and they will have tired legs as this is their 6th road game over the last 8 games. Two weeks ago they were a 13-point home favorite over this young Minnesota team, and lost 110-108, a game that sailed over the total by double digits. The Wolves won consecutive games last week for the first time since last April, and four of seven games after starting the season 3-21 because of good health on offense: The Timberwolves have been better since 7-footer Kevin Love came back, joining Al Jefferson up front and Damien Wilkins. Of course, the defense has been suspect often, which is common with young teams, allowing 104.5 ppg -- 25th in the NBA. They also allow over 47% shooting by opponents. Minnesota is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Jazz this season, dominating the glass (48-36) when they met the last time, and 2-0 over the total. The Jazz seemed content with trying to outscore the Timberwolves rather than slow them down and Utah got burned in the end. That is common with teams that rely more on offense than defense. Look for another uptempo game between these strong offenses. Play the Jazz/Timberwolves Over the total. |
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12-18-09 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New York Knicks OVER 200 | Top | 91-95 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Clippers/Knicks Over.
The Clippers may not play much defense, but they sure found their offensive this week, scoring 97 and 120 the last two games. Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby and Baron Davis are all finally healthy at the same time, and what a difference it is making for the Clippers. Kaman had 23 points and 10 rebounds, while Camby had 10 points, 18 rebounds, six assists and five blocks to lead the Clippers to a 120-95 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Davis had 13 points and 13 assists and Eric Gordon scored 25 for the Clippers. Two of their last three games have gone OVER the total. They take on an uptempo NY team that plays no defense, averaging 103 ppg on offense but allowing 106 ppg. The Clippers are rested while the Knicks had to play last night at Chicago, the end of a 3-game trip, so look for the visitors and their potent offense to run right at the home team. An excellent spot for a game with far more offense than defense. Play the Clippers/Knicks Over the total. |
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12-09-09 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
20-Star High Roller Total: Blazers/Pacers Under the total.
Both teams are hurting with injuries to their top offensive players. Portland has gone 2 straight under the total scoring 90 and 84 points, and that was 84 points against the run and gun (and defenseless NY Knicks). Greg Oden had season-ending surgery Sunday, Rudy Fernandez (sciatic pain) is out, joining Travis Outlaw (broken left foot) and Nicolas Batum (right shoulder surgery). And coach Nate McMillan wasn't around either after having surgery Monday in Vancouver, Wash. "It's not normal," acting head coach Dean Demopoulos said. The Indiana Pacers have lost scoring leader Danny Granger for at least four weeks with a foot injury. He averages 24.4 points per game. "We're losing an All-Star player," Jim O'Brien said. "It's a big loss." They are also on a 2-0 run under the total, scoring 87 and 72 points the last two games. This total is far too high; Play the Blazers/Pacers Under the total. |
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11-18-09 | Detroit Pistons v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 178 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Pistons/Blazers Under the total.
Detroit is playing defense this season, allowing 42% shooting -- 4th best in the league -- and 91.5 ppg. But their best offensive players are banged up. Tayshaun Prince is not able to play with a small ruptured disc in his back. Rip Hamilton (severely twisted right ankle) also is on the trip, but won't play any of the four games either. This is the second of a 4-game road trip out West. The unfortunate catch for them here is that they play an even better defensive team. The Blazers came into this season asking Greg Oden to focus on defense, rebounding and blocked shots. That makes sense with all the offensive talent on this team. Well the kid is talented and delivering, helping Portland to a league best .412% shooting by opponents and 88 ppg allowed. That explains an 8-4 mark under the total. Defense fueled their impressive 4-1 road trip, and now they are home. The defensive number on the trip are impressive: Opponents averaged 82.8 points and 39% shooting. Look for a very low scoring tilt here. Play the Pistons/Blazers Under the total. |
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11-13-09 | Utah Jazz v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 198 | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Jazz/76ers Over.
A pair of young, uptempo offenses meet. The problem for Utah on the season has not been offense, a strong attack averaging 99 ppg. It's the defense that has been dormant, allowing 103 ppg, in the bottom 10 in the NBA. In the Jazz's 105-86 loss to the Boston Celtics, they never led and trailed by 22 after three quarters. They are now 1-3 on the road and giving up 102.8 points a game after stressing improvement in both areas entering the season. "Especially with all the emphasis on defense and talk about defense," Deron Williams said. "We haven't put much of an effort up." Jazz coach Jerry Sloan benched Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur early in the third for Paul Millsap and Kyrylo Fesenko. Fortunately, they face a team here that is equally bad on defense, with Philly allowing over 102 ppg. The 76ers are allowing opponents to shoot a whopping .479% by opponents, 6th worst in the NBA (Utah is rankd 19th). Look for an offensive show in this one, Play the Jazz/76ers Over the total. |
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11-05-09 | San Antonio Spurs v. Utah Jazz OVER 201 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
High Roller Total: Spurs/Jazz Over.
San Antonio has the reputation as a dominant defensive team, but that was the old days when Tim Duncan was younger. The Spurs are a good defensive team, but most impressive is an offense averaging 103 ppg. They are 2-1 over the total. Utah comes home and everyone is frustrated in their 1-3 starts. There's nothing wrong with the offense, averaging 99 ppg (3-1 over the total), but the defense has been poor, allowing 105 ppg. In the last game, a collapse at Dallas, the team gave up 44 fourth quarter points to blow another game! In the end, the Jazz made history, equaling their third-largest blown lead to start the fourth quarter in a loss. Twenty-four hours after they were humbled at home by Houston, the Jazz were left with another crushing loss. The Jazz also opted not to double-team Nowitzki -- with Jerry Sloan fearful of leaving Jason Terry and Jason Kidd open for three-pointers. That's a problem here, too, as the Spurs love for the big men to throw it outside for open three-pointers when teams double-team in the low post. The last 4 meetings between these teams the OVER is 4-0. Play the Spurs/Jazz Over the total. |
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10-27-09 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 186.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
High Roller: Rockets/Blazers Under the total.
Both these coaches demand tough defense from their players, ranked No. 4 and No. 7 in points allowed last season. Houston is a good aggressive rebounding team in the low post and will have to pay even more attention to it with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady out, two of their top offensive players. "I want Greg Oden to establish us on the defensive end of the floor, |