|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-24-21||Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers||Top||10-24||Loss||-117||1 h 2 m||Show|
Washington vs Green Bay
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points
Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets.
Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career.
|10-24-21||Chiefs -4 v. Titans||Top||3-27||Loss||-106||1 h 1 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Tennessee
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points
Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons.
Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game.
From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons.
|10-24-21||Panthers v. Giants OVER 43||Top||3-25||Loss||-105||1 h 0 m||Show|
Carolina vs NY Giants
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Bet OVER the Total
Carolina is 38-19 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. They are also 34-18 OVER after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored.
Despite the large numbers of Giant injuries, the predictive models show a high probability that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points and that puts the final score above the current 42.5-point total pretty easily.
|10-17-21||Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 43||Top||20-23||Push||0||8 h 19 m||Show|
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
8:20 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
This total has moved 6 points lower since the preseason price was set at 48 points by the West Gate Super Book. The movement is based on the news surrounding the matchup and dominated by the absence of Russell Wilson from the lineup. Even with him out of the game, the models clearly show a high probability that Seattle will be effective on offense and will score points.
Pete Carroll is 22-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points for his coaching career at Seattle. He is also 54-33 OVER following a game in which his offense gained six or more yards per play and 33-15 OVER in non-conference matchups.
From the predictive models, we learn that the OVER is 11-2 over the last seasons in games that the Steelers gained at least 300 passing yards and gained at least 100 rushing yards.
Bet the OVER
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots OVER 50||Top||35-29||Win||100||4 h 24 m||Show|
Dallas vs New England
4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets.
Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts.
With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.
|10-17-21||Cardinals +3 v. Browns||Top||37-14||Win||100||4 h 5 m||Show|
Arizona vs Cleveland
4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points
The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.
From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.
|10-17-21||Texans v. Colts OVER 44.5||Top||3-31||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
Houston vs Indianapolis
Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons.
From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons.
Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|10-17-21||Packers v. Bears +5.5||Top||24-14||Loss||-104||1 h 3 m||Show|
Green Bay vs Chicago
1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points
Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.
The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.
The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.
The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.
|10-17-21||Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +6.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||1 h 2 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Washington
1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points
Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.
Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.
Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|10-10-21||Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52||Top||20-44||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM EST, October 10, 2021
10-UNIT Total of the Month OVER the posted total
This is my first 10-UNIT play in the NFL and have won a 10-UNIT play on Colorado State +24.5 points, who covered easily by 14 points against Iowa.
After trailing the fourth by 11 points, the Giants stormed backed and shocked the Saints in overtime 27-21 and marked the first time since 2011 that they trailed by 10 or more entering the fourth quarter and won the game That is certainly a confidence booster for the entire team, especially the offense as they travel to Dallas in Week 5.
The Cowboys, mostly done my Prescott, have thrown at least one TD in each of their last 26 home games and is the longest streak in franchise history. The struggling Steelers hold the current streak with 32 games and throwing for at least one TD, which is shocking.
Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards and was his first 400+ passing game and the first since Eli Manning threw for 434 in the 2017season. The offensive line did a great job giving Jones time to scan the field allowing no sacks to the Saints. In fact, it was the first game this season in which neither team recorded a sack.
Dallas is 22-9 OVER in home games after outrushing their opponent by 100 or more yards in their previous game and 39-17 OVER in home games after outrushing an opponent by 75 or more yards. Dallas I on a 6-0 OVER streak installed as a home favorite; 27-12 OVER in home tilts and on a 3 or more game win streak. Head coach McCarthy is 15-3 OVER in a home game after scoring 35 or more points for his career.
From the predictive side of things, my models show a high probability that Dallas will score at least 27 points and gain at least 400 total offensive yards. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 10-2 OVER record for 83.3% winning bets spanning the past three seasons; 16-4 OVER for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|10-04-21||Raiders v. Chargers -3||Top||14-28||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995. Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most.
Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons.
LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49.5||19-17||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs New England
4% Best Bet on the UNDER
Betting UNDER in a matchup of streaks has paid off well over the past 10 seasons. Betting UNDER with a road team on a three or more-game OVER streak (Bucs) and being hosted by a team that is on a 3 or more-game UNDER streak has seem the UNDER go 21-11 over the past 10 seasons.
Betting UNDER where the home team is coming off a double-digit upset loss has earned an 72-27-1 record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if that upset loss was by 14 or more points, then the UNDER improves to 46-15-1 for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
|10-03-21||Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45||Top||17-27||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
4:25 PM EST, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the UNDER
I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game with any team regardless of home or away (Steelers) that are coming off an embarrassing double-digit loss to a divisional foe and has a win percentage of 20 to 40% on the season has earned a 38-9-1 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle has earned a 9-2 UNDER record spanning the past three seasons.
Steelers head coach Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER facing a suspect defense that is allowing 28 or more PPG in games played over the past three seasons. Steelers are 22-7 UNDER for 75% in a road game and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite.
|10-03-21||Seahawks v. 49ers -2.5||Top||28-21||Loss||-107||4 h 53 m||Show|
Seattle vs San Francisco
4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points
The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet.
From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons.
|10-03-21||Titans v. Jets +6||Top||24-27||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
Tennessee vs NY Jets
1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points
I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons.
The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson.
|10-03-21||Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5||Top||28-36||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
Carolina vs Dallas
1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 3, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
2-Unit Best Bet OVER Carolina team TOTAL
2-UNIT Best Bet OVER Dallas team TOTAL
Betting the OVER in the first four weeks of the regular season with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a double-digit win over a divisional rival has earned a 25-11 OVER record for 69.5% winning bets over the past five seasons. In games with a total of 50 or more points, the OVER is 7-2 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons.
No doubt, the loss of McCaffrey is monumental, but we have seen a rejuvenated Sam Darnold lead the offense with his arm and also his legs scoring two rushing TDs in their win over the Texans last Thursday. Of course, Dallas is much better than the Texans, but Dallas secondary is very suspect and Darnold will use play action often to free the linebackers and have time to scan the field for the best situation. So, I see Carolina scoring points and like playing OVER their team total of 22.5 points and OVER Dallas team points at 27.5 points at even money.
|10-03-21||Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 54.5||42-30||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the OVER
This will be the first time that former Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be back at the Lincoln Financial Field. His Chiefs have lost 2 straight games and have not lost three straight since the 2017 season, in which Alex Smith was then benched in favor of Mahomes. Chiefs defense is allowing 31.7 PPG and the Eagles offense is young, but very gifted with elite vertical speed. KC defense has not been able to mount any sort of pass rush and now face a quick QB in Hurts, who can easily extend plays making the Chiefs secondary even more vulnerable to the deep routes.
I think the game plan for the Chiefs will be simply to put more points on the scoreboard than the Eagles and get into a big-time shootout.
Betting the OVER with any team coming off a divisional matchup loss and facing a team that is coming off a road loss to a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 55-23 record for 71% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons.
Eagles are on a 9-1 OVER streak when facing a poor defense that is allowing 5 or more rushing yards per game. Chiefs are 10-2 OVER in road games off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional foe.
|09-27-21||Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5||21-41||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Dallas
8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points
Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent.
|09-26-21||Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 54.5||Top||17-30||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Seattle vs Minnesota
4:25 PM EST, September 26, 2021
4% Best Bet UNDER
Betting the UNDER with any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, as is Seattle, and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more point has earned a highly profitable 32-9 UNDER record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. 24 of the 31 winning bets went UNDER by an average of 7 or more points.
An alternative strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size for a 4% play and then look to add 25% more at 59.5 points and 62.5 points, BUT ONLY if this occurs in the first half of the game.
Bet the UNDER for a 4% Best Bet
Ryan is the reigning No. 1 ranked NFL professional hitting 65.8% ATS for the 2020 season. This 4% (4-Unit) Total is reinforced by an 79% wining situational angle and LIVE in GAME betting strategy that Ryan will be executing during this late afternoon game.
|09-26-21||Chargers v. Chiefs -7||Top||30-24||Loss||-100||1 h 4 m||Show|
LA Chargers vs Kansas City
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021
4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points
The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth.
Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack. The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).
The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce.
The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons.
From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points.
|09-26-21||Cardinals v. Jaguars +8.5||Top||31-19||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
Arizona vs Jacksonville
1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021
4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line.
Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak.
Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons.
|09-26-21||Bengals +3 v. Steelers||Top||24-10||Win||100||1 h 2 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021
4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|09-26-21||Bears v. Browns OVER 44.5||Top||6-26||Loss||-110||1 h 0 m||Show|
Chicago vs Cleveland
1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021
8-UNIT Best bet on the OVER
Betting on the OVER with any team, like Cleveland, who is coming off a win in which they did not cover the spread and now facing an opponent, who is coming off a home win has earned a highly profitable 44-9 OVER record good for 83% winning bets over the past five seasons. 27 of the 44 winning bets went over the total by a minimum of 7 points.
From the predictive models, Cleveland is expected to gain at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games in which Cleveland gained 6 or more YPPL, the OVER has 10-1 for 91% winning bets over the last three seasons. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in games in which the Chicago defense allowed 6 or more YPPL over the last three seasons.
|09-19-21||Cowboys v. Chargers -3||Top||20-17||Loss||-106||8 h 41 m||Show|
Dallas vs LA Chargers
4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Chargers
I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade.
The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon.
Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup.
Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons!
|09-19-21||49ers -3 v. Eagles||Top||17-11||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points
A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact.
Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets.
From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins +3.5||Top||35-0||Loss||-103||5 h 44 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Miami
4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points
I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line.
Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven.
Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
|09-19-21||Rams v. Colts +4||Top||27-24||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colts and take the points
Betting on underdogs that were solid passing teams last season averaging 250 or more PYPG and are coming off a game where they defense was diced up for more than 7 yards per pass attempt has earned a 30-5 ATS 86% record over the last 10 seasons.
From the predictive models, the Colts are expected to score 28 or more points and have at least 125 rushing yards. NFL teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 310-56 ATS record over the last five seasons and the Colts dressed in this role are 9-1 ATS.
|09-13-21||Ravens -3.5 v. Raiders||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||6 h 32 m||Show|
Baltimore vs Las Vegas
Week 1 8:15 PM EST, Monday, September 13, 2021
4% best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points
A few quick-hitters. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a solid 23-11 ATS in games with a total of 46 or more points. He is 18-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the regular season.
From the predictive models, Baltimore is expected to gain well over 125 rushing yards and would not be at all surprised if they gained over 200 tonight. Baltimore is 86-27-1 ATS in games gaining at least 125 rushing yards. They are 9-1 ATS over the last three seasons in games they averaged 5.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS over the last three seasons in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards.
Bet Baltimore for a 4-Unit Best Bet
|09-12-21||Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||14-34||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
Chicago vs LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 12, 2021
10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
I will make this short and sweet. The predictive models and applications expect the Rams to gain 380 or more yards and produce a 12.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio. The OVER is 12-4 spanning the last five seasons when the Rams have had a YPPT ratio of 12.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 for 80% when the Bears defense has allowed an opponent a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio. Home teams that have had a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio and gained 380 or more total yards are 91-15-1 OVER for 86% winning bets over the last five seasons and covered the total by an average of 15 points!
Bet the OVER for a 10-UNIT Best Bet
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||Top||9-31||Win||100||23 h 17 m||Show|
Super Bowl LV
6:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 points and a little sprinkle on the money line too.
The KC offense is one of the best anyone has seen in at least the last decade, but when you break down the game film, they are a two dimensional one. They have TE Kelce and WR Hill and they complement one another perfectly. If a defense looks to take away the post routes to Hill, then Mahomes will throw underneath to Kelce and vice-versa. The Bucs defense, especially the linebackers are some of the best and quickest in the NFL. That unit will make things far more difficult for Mahomes in this matchup.
BUCS DEFENSE VS CHIEFS DEFENSE
By comparison, the Chiefs defense is somewhat pedestrian and ranks in the middle third of many defensive performance measures. They rank ninth with a 35.7% blitz percentage but going up against the best offensive line in the NFL that is 100% healthy too. KC defense ranks 15th with 55 QB hurries and 19th with just 32 sacks on the season. Plus, the Tampa Bay OL has allowed a sack on just 3.3% of all plays during the regular season. Offensively, these two teams are near equaled overall, but the largest difference is that the Bucs defense is vastly better than the Chiefs.
Where the Chiefs defense will be most vulnerable is on second downs. The Bucs run the ball a high percentage of the time on first downs and getting three to five yards then sets up the play-action pass play. Brady is one of the all-time greats with the fake to the running back that freezes even the best All-Pro linebackers. For the season, he has thrown 110 passes for 1,119 passing yards out of the play-action set. Brady through over the top with great success against New Orleans and Green Bay and it will be highly effective in this matchup too.
The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards-per-play, which also matches the league average.
The Bucs are 8-1 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 5.65 or more yards-per-play on the season. The Chiefs rank 6th gaining 6.3 yards-per-play this season, but the
Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS facing excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play this season.
The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in games played with a total ranging between 40 and 49.5 points this season.
A HIGHLY PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEM
FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS
MY SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
Bet the Bucs -10.5 points +650
|01-24-21||Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51||Top||31-26||Loss||-101||77 h 20 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
Brady passed for 189 yards in last week’s road win over the Saints. In playoff games he is 28-18 UNDER for 61% winning bets following a playoff game in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards.
Now, combine the UNDER with the BUCS using the money line to bet a parlay and also consider a reverse action parlay.
|01-24-21||Bucs +3.5 v. Packers||Top||31-26||Win||100||77 h 19 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021
The line for this NFC Championship game opened with Green Bay priced as a 3-point home favorite and the public bettor has been largely attracted to bet Green Bay accounting for 71% of the best made as of Wednesday. I fully expect this trend to continue, but the line may not move above 3.5 unless there is new news. I am planning on waiting till Friday to place 50% of my 5% bet size Friday at the market price and then prepare to add 25% more about an hour before game time. The remaining 25% will be used for in-game live betting at a price of +7.5-points. I will be tweeting LIVE in-game bets so make certain you are following me.
Betting on road teams after week 8 including the playoffs, that make few mistakes averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game (TPG) and have posted four consecutive games committing no more than a single turnover in each game, and now facing an opponent that is also takes great of the football averaging 1.25 TPG has earned a 36-25 SU record and a 37-22-2 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
The following results is a subset variation of the previous system and requires us to bet on road teams in game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer TPG and with the host coming off a game in which their defense did not face a turnover. This subset has earned a 41-28 record and 47-20-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 4-2 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points.
My opponent-adjusted power ratings have the Packers as the best team in the NFL, Tampa Bay second, then the Buffalo Bills at 4th, and the Chiefs a distant ninth. So, placing a futures bet on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl and a matchup bet that the Bills and Bucs will be the Super Bowl teams is a great opportunity.
The Bucs have a significant advantage running the ball against the Packers defensive line. The single-most powerful situation for Brady over his entire career has been using play-action pass and having an extra two seconds or more to scan the field and complete high-percentage routes in space. Once the Bucs force the Packers to bring a safety up to the line-of-scrimmage the play-action pass will highly effective and the dominant reason the Bucs win and advance to the Super Bowl.
From the machine learning applications we learn that the Bucs are 14-7 SU and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when scoring 24 or more points and averaging at least 6.3 yards-per-play.
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||Top||30-20||Win||100||4 h 20 m||Show|
TAMPA BAY VS NEW ORLEANS
This is the third time that these divisional rivals will face each other this season. The road teams are 10-11 SU, and 15-8 ATS for 62% winning bets in the NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round last week, the Browns and Rams were in this role and both won SU against their divisional rivals. Teams meeting for the third time that have a higher yards-per-play ratio than the opponent are 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS for 62% winning bets. The Bucs have averaged 6.0 YPPL ranking 7th-best in the NFL and the Saints have avered 5.8 YPPL ranking 11th-best in the NFL.
Betting on road teams in a game in which they and their host are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game and with the host coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 44-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five regular and playoff seasons.
The Saints under head coach Sean Payton are 0-6 ATS in home regular season and playoff games spanning the last three seasons. Drilling a bit deeper, Sean Payton in home playoff games facing an opponent with a winning record is 6-2 SU, BUT 2-6 ATS.
From the machine learning applications, the Bucs are projected to score 27 or more points and average a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass attempt. In past playoff games, road teams that have met or exceeded this par of measures have earned an incredible 25-7 SU record and a 28-2-2 ATS record good for 93% winning bets and that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points. Road teams during the regular and playoff seasons that are playing with double-revenge, scoring 27 or more points, and averaging 7 or more YPPA, have earned an 85-27 SU record and 98-9-5 ATS record goods for 92% winning bets.
|01-10-21||Ravens -3.5 v. Titans||Top||20-13||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens Vs Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
1:05 PM EST January 10, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens
Here are a few quick hitters: Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in road games facing a solid passing team that has completed 62% of their pass attempts on the season in games played over the last three seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in road games facing a solid offense gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass in games played over the last three seasons.
Baltimore’s season hit rock bottom in a Week 12, 19-14 loss at Division rival Pittsburgh and from there on out to the end of the regular season Baltimore has made improvements in each week. They are peaking at exactly the right time coming off 38-3 win at Cincinnati in which they posted many season-highs across the offensive efficiency metrics.
The Titans gained the most passing yards (1541) and ranked third in the NFL running a total of 174 play action pass plays. They have an outstanding ground attack led by Henry and the Ravens will look to confuse the gap blocking reads of the Titans offensive line with late pre-snap personnel movements. The Ravens have increased these adjustments whenever the play clock is under 10 seconds. The Ravens blitz a league-low 115 times because they were getting enough pressures and QB hits rushing just four linemen. The Ravens do not need to bring a safety to reinforce the run-defense and in turn makes play action nearly useless for the Titans. The Titans may counter this advantage for the Ravens by placing Tannehill in the shot-gun.
Playoff teams like the favorable situation the Ravens are in, that are on a 6 or more game ATS win streak with 11 or more wins and in playoff games are 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.
|01-09-21||Colts +6.5 v. Bills||Top||24-27||Win||100||44 h 19 m||Show|
NFL 2020-21 Wild Card Playoff Round
Bill Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
1:05 PM EST, January 9th, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +6.5-points and sprinkle a bit extra on the money line.
Some of you may like the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and if you do, I have a strong recommendation for you. The current futures line is 35:1 that the Colts win the Super Bowl. However, you will make more money if you bet the Colts using the money line in each game alog the way tow a potential Championship. So, I suggest playing this game with 75% on the line and then 30% using the money line. If you do like the Colts to go all the way, the bet a 25% amount of your 4% wager using the futures line, and then 30% using the money line in each game moving forward.
Future Hall-of-Famer and 17-year veteran Philip Rivers adopted quickly and quit ewell to Colts head coach Frank Reich’s offensive scheme and proved that last seasons’ 19 interceptions thrown was an outlier. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles Championship run in 2017. He looks like a genious now, having left for this position, the day after the Eagles Super Bowl win. Rivers’ and Reich’s playoff experience is a monumental advantage in this matchup against a Bills franchise playing in their first playoff as a favorite since the losss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites in 1996.
The ket matchup for the Colts odffense is between Rivers and the Buffalo secondary featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White. For the majority of the regular season, the Colts knick was that they did have a ground attack strong enough to be respected by opponents defense units. Not the case now as the Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game for the season and a monster 175.6 RYPG over their last three games that was good enough to rank third-best in the NFL. So, the Colts will be successful on the ground and force the Bills to bring a safety to the line-of scrimmage. When Rivers sees this scheme, he will look to use play-action and use seem and post routes knowing his receivers will be in man-coverage.
The Colts defense was quite good throughout the 2020 season and the Bills will struggle to run the ball. Although the Bills with Josh Allen are a pass-happy unit, forcing him to throw more than he is used to, will make ti very tough to move the chains into scoring opportunities.
HC Reich is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games having won two of the last three games.
Reich is 16-5 ATS facing solid offensive units that average 350 or more total yards-per-game.
My machine learning tools reveal that the Colts are a highly profitable 15-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS in road games holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushingn yards and gaining a total of 300 or more total yards in games played over the last ten seasons. Under the same projections, the Bills are just 4-12 SU and ATS in home games over the last ten seasons. Home playoff teams that fail to gain 100 rushing yards and allow 300 or more total yards are 14-13 SU, BUT a money-losing 7-19-1 ATS in playoff games played over the last ten seasons.
|12-26-20||49ers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||20-12||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
4:30 PM EST, December 26, 2020.
4% Best bet on the San Francisco 49ers +6 points and sprinkle a little on the money line.
CJ Beathard is starting for the 49ers and this is his audition to make an impression prior to him becoming a free agent in two weeks. I strongly believe he will play well and has the potential to win the game outright.
Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a solid 48-20-4 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to play on road dogs facing a host that have a miserable turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game in games played since the start of the 2016 season.
The machine learning tools project that the 49ers will score a minimum of 24 points and gain at least 4.0 yards-per-rush. In past road games in which the 49ers met these performance measures has earned them a 55-17-2 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2016.
|12-25-20||Vikings v. Saints -6.5||Top||33-52||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day
4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season.
Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons.
From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.
I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.
Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.
Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.
Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.
|12-20-20||Eagles v. Cardinals -6||Top||26-33||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
Arizona vs Philadelphia
4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points.
From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points.
The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons.
Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.
Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.
Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.
The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.
|12-14-20||Ravens -3 v. Browns||Top||47-42||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points
The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.
Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.
Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.
This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.
Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.
|12-10-20||Patriots +4.5 v. Rams||Top||3-24||Loss||-107||8 h 57 m||Show|
New England vs LA Rams
4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.
Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.
This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.
The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.
The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.
Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.
|12-06-20||Broncos +13.5 v. Chiefs||Top||16-22||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
Denver vs Kansas City
There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.
Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.
Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.
Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.
|12-06-20||Browns v. Titans -4||Top||41-35||Loss||-100||2 h 32 m||Show|
Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans
4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.
The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.
The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.
This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.
The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.
|11-29-20||49ers v. Rams -6.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-105||8 h 54 m||Show|
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan
|11-26-20||Texans -3 v. Lions||Top||41-25||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.
Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.
Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.
Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs OVER 48||Top||27-24||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for both teams to score at least 24 points. Further, both teasm will average a minimum of 5.5 yards-play. In past games in which both teasm averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play has led to an outstanding 850-220-24 for 79% winning bets on the ‘OVER’ since 2006. The Rams are 32-6 ‘OVER’ and 21-7 ‘OVER’ in games they played in and had both them and the opponent gain 5.5 or more yards-per-play.
This betting system has earned a 25-7 ‘OVER’ record good for 78% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are to bet ‘OVER’ the posted total between 43 and 50 points in the second half of the season with a team that is averaging between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards-per-attempt, coming off a previous game in which they averaged eight or more PYPA and now facing an opponent, whose defense has allowed between 5.3 to 5.9 PYPA. This system has hit 80% on an 8-2 record over the last five seasons.
|11-22-20||Packers v. Colts -1.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.
The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.
Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.
|11-22-20||Dolphins v. Broncos +4||Top||13-20||Win||100||4 h 0 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos
The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.
Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance. Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.
Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.
Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.
|11-22-20||Titans v. Ravens -5.5||Top||30-24||Loss||-110||1 h 52 m||Show|
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens
The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.
|11-08-20||Saints v. Bucs -4||Top||38-3||Loss||-107||13 h 45 m||Show|
NFL Week 9
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Bucs
5% 10-Star NFL Game of the Month on the Tampa Bay Bucs. As a discpline, I always recommend to my clients a maximum wager amount of 5% of your total bankroll. My goal is to maximize my profits over the course of a full season and not depend on one single-game or one weekend. It is a marathon process to be a professional sports bettor.
This is a marquee matchup and all my research points to the Bucs. Antonio Brown is the latest edition to a stable of offensive weapons that Brady has at his disposal. Brady has thrown just one interception against 17 TDs and amassed 2,198 passing yards. However, it is the defense that has done their job every week to give Brady good field position in critical situations.
The Bucs defense is the most underrated unit in the NFL. My metrics have them clearly the best and significantly ahead of anyone else. The Bucs defensive front seven are difficult for any offensive line to get a push on after the snap. They are incredibly quick and can disguise their stunts and gap assignments as good as if not bnetter than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos schemes.
Brady’s arm is still a gun and I do feel Brees has lost some velocity and it shows on 20 to 30 yards routes. His shoulder has been ailing him and he is listed as probable. He will certainly play in this game. Brady is 5-24 ATS for 58% winning bets playing with same season revenge in his career.
The machine learning models project that the Bucs will score a minimum of 27 points and average 6 or more yards-per-play, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games when the Bucs have met or exceeded these projection they have earned an outstanding 31-12 SU record and 29-9-5 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.
|11-05-20||Packers v. 49ers +7.5||Top||34-17||Loss||-105||12 h 30 m||Show|
(301) Green Bay Packers vs (302) San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM EST, November 5, 2020
4% TNF Best Bet Titan on the SF 49ers getting 7.5 points. No matter the line movement ahead of game-time, this will be a valid best bet.
The 49ers are descimated by a multitude of injuries and now the COVID-19 has hit the team with many offensive players infected and quarantined. Despite the physical injuries, the 49ers have been able to grind their way to a 4-4 SU record led by a powerful ground attack. Nick Mullins will start at QB in place of Garropolo, who is out with an injured ankle. He will be handing the ball off early and often against a Packers defense that has struggled to stop the run this season.
The Packers rank 24th allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry and rank 23rd with az 26% blitz percentage on the season. Mullins and the 49ers offense will be successful in the ground attack and will have short yardage third down situations that have high percentages to convert and move the chains. The Packers are vulnerable with deep over-the-top routes and I do believe you will see Mullins throwing long down field passes when the safeties are forced to be at the line-of-scrimmage to help stop the ground attack.
RB Jerick McKinnon will be the featured back and will be a go-to receiver in the flat where he can catch the ball in space. He is fourth on the team with 29 targets catching 21 balls for a 7.5 yards-per-catch average.
My machine learning models project that the 49ers will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and have an advantage of at least 5 minutes in time-of-possession. In past games in which the 49ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 43-2 SU record for 96% wins and a 36-8-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets since 2005.
Bet the 49ers as a 4% Best Bet Titan tonight.
|11-01-20||Patriots +4.5 v. Bills||Top||21-24||Win||100||2 h 43 m||Show|
(255) New England vs (256) Buffalo
4% Best Bet on the New England Patriots
I will start with an excellent betting system from my vast database that has earned a 29-6 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are four requirements.
1. Bet on any team regardless of the betting line.
2. Team is averaging 5.5 to 5.9 Yards-per-play (YPPL).
3. Opponent is below average defense allowing a minimum of 5.75 YPPL.
4. Opponent is coming off a game where the opponent gained a minimum of 100 more total offensive yards.
Coach Belichick is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS having lost three consecutive games SU and ATS in his career. Moreover, he is 10-3 ATS following a three-game ATS losing streak and 12-6-1 ATS when having lost three or more consecutive games ATS in his career.
Coach Belichick is 42-28-2 ATS for 60% wins facing a divisional foe and total lined at no higher than 42 points; 19-6 ATS for 76% following a double-digit loss and the opponent scored 30 or more points.
|10-29-20||Falcons +2.5 v. Panthers||Top||25-17||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
(101) Atlanta Falcons vs. (102) Carolina Panthers
Since 1995, these two divisional rivals have met 51 times, with the Falcons earning a 32-19 SU record and 29-18-4 ATS mark for 62% winning bets. In the last meeting, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 as 2-point road underdogs and ended a 5-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Falcons. The Falcons are above average on offense and below on defense. The opposite is true for the Panthers.
The Falcons are playing better football on both sides of the ball despite their losing record. For the season, they have a -3.3 average scoring differential and +3.0 over their last three games. On the season, the Falcons defense is allowing 29.6 PPG, but a much improved 23.0 PPG over their last three games. The offense has remained consistent throughout this most recent stretch matching all of the significant season-to-date ratios and metrics. The Falcons play fast, averaging 70.6 plays from scrimmage for the season, 70.7 over the last three games, and 73 in road games. So, the Panthers defense will be challenged to contain the Falcons fast-paced offense for 60 minutes.
My machine learning models provide a glimpse at what the final box may read. The Falcons are projected to score a minimum of 24 points and post an offensive yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 12. The more efficient an offense is, the lower the yards-per-point rate because it takes fewer yards to gain to put one point on the scoreboard. In past road games in which the Falcons have met or exceeded these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 10-2 SU record and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points. Over the last three seasons, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS under these measures.
|10-26-20||Bears +6 v. Rams||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||9 h 17 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs. LA Rams
10-Star NFL Game of the Month
The Rams have four wins against two losses, and the four wins are against the teams that comprise the NFC East (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants). The two losses were at Buffalo and San San Francisco. The Bears have one home loss in a low-scoring 19-11 game t the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. They defeated Tampa Bay 20-19 in Week 5 and followed that up with a 23-16 road win at Carolina.
My power ratings rank the Bears as the 11th-best NFL team overall. They rank 22nd in total offense, split between a 25th ranking in the passing game and 17th rank in their ground attack. By comparison, the Rams rank 9th overall, 8th in passing, and 10th in their ground attack. However, when these metrics adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS), the Rams drop down the rankings listed as an average NFL team.
The significant advantage for the Nears is their defense that ranks 3rd-best overall in the NFL. Khalil Mack is the heart and soul of the defensive unit and has played at Pro-Bowl caliber levels in each of the first six games. He has played on 360 snaps attaining 29 pressures broken down to include five sacks, 21 quarterback hurries, and three quarterback hits. Linebacker Roquan Smith known for his speed and coverage excellence, leads the Bears with 41 tackles.
The Bears defensive unit has allowed just four receiving touchdowns on the season, ranking best in the NFL, with the Dolphins and Colts ranked second allowing seven touchdowns.
The Bears have achieved these results without relying on using the blitz, ranking 25th with a 19% blitz percentage of plays. Their secondary and linebacker coverage is elite, and Rams QB Goff will struggle to complete passes. The Bears defensive front can contain the Rams ground attack rendering the Rams play-action pass plays useless.
The reason play action works is that the linebackers must respect a ground attack. The Bears do not need to blitz Goff and do not have to bring their safeties closer to the line-of-scrimmage to stop the run. Whether the Bears play a bracket-zone or man scheme, the Rams receivers will have trouble getting separation from the defenders making throws hard to complete.
Here is a great betting system that has earned a 37-9 ATS mark, good for 79% winners over the last 7 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that failed to force a turnover in each of their last two games.
From the machine learning models, the Bears defense shall contain Rams defense to a 30% or lower third-down percentage and score a minimum of 21 points. In past games in which the Bears met or exceeded, this pair of performance measures has earned them a 54-9 SU record for 86% wins and a 52-9-2 ATS record for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by a minimum of 11 points.
Take the Bears and the points.
|10-25-20||Bucs v. Raiders +4.5||Top||45-20||Loss||-110||4 h 41 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Las Vegas Raiders
4% NFL Best Bet Titan on the Las Vegas Raiders
Let us start with a proven and simple money-making system that has earned an outstanding 102-61-4 ATS for 63% winning bets since 1989 and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on home teams facing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a winning record on the season. The Bucs are off the big home upset win over Green Bay last week and now are on the road to face a Raiders team off the BYE.
The following historical precedents match the machine learning projections for this game. So, the Raiders are 16-2 SU and 167-1-1 ATS in home games in which they passed for a minimum of 7.25 yards-per-pass, and will have the better (lower value) yards-per-point ratio since 2010. Usig the same performance measures and filtering only games that Jon Gruden has coached in his career gives us a 5-0 SU ATS record that covered the spread by an average 12 points.
|10-25-20||Packers v. Texans +3||Top||35-20||Loss||-105||2 h 40 m||Show|
Green Bay vs Houston
4% Best Bet Titan on the Texans
A 4% isa equivalent to a 7-star and represents 4% of your bankroll. As a serious discipline, never go over the 5% level, which is reserved for the 10-star releases I have released for the last two decades.
When things look too good to be true they often are. This game has a 4-win Packers team favored by just a field goal against a 1-win Texans team and looks initially to be not near enough points. This betting system supports the Texans and has earned an outstanding 41-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over he last 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on favorites with a below-average defense forcing an average of less than one turnmover-per-game and are coming off a game where they had a turnover margin of -2.
Fron the machine learning models, the Texans are projected to gain six or more total yards-per-play and their defense will force a minimum of at least two turnovers. In past games, in which the Texans met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them a remarkable 19-3 SU record and 15-7 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2000; 8-3 ATS in home games and covering by an average of 8.8 points.
|10-25-20||Browns v. Bengals +3.5||Top||37-34||Win||100||1 h 8 m||Show|
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
4% Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals’ inconsistent play has led to many different types of losses this season. At 1-4-1 straight-up (SU), the hope of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2015 has vanished. Head coach Zac Taylor has won 3 of his first 22 games but faces a team he defeated. The Bengals are playing better than expectations, though, posting a 4-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season.
The Second Meeting in the Battle of Ohio
In Week 2, the Browns defeated the Bengals 35-30 but failed to cover the spread by the slimmest of margins as 5.5-point home favorites. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrows completed 37 passes on 61 attempts for 315 passing yards, including three touchdowns without an interception. Burrows threw a meaningless touchdown to wide receiver Tyler Boyd with 0:48 seconds left in the game to earn the back-door cover.
The Bengals are a solid bet when having the same season revenge against the AFC North. Since 2000, the Bengals are 16-18 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% winning bets in the second meeting of the season against the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers, Browns, and Baltimore Ravens) after losing the first meeting. Of these 34 second meetings, 14 of them were against the Browns. The Bengals are 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS for 71% winning bets playing with same season revenge against the Browns.
There is a money line betting system that supports the Bengals and puts the Browns on Upset Alert status. The system has three requirements and has earned a 71-48 SU record over the last ten seasons.
Bet on any team on the money line when:
1. The opponent averages a minimum of 4.5 yards-per-rush.
2.The opponent is coming off a game gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards.
From the machine learning models the following metrics are based on the proejctions detailed. The Bengals are a solid 28-6 SU and 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets when they have gained a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play and gained a minimum of 325 total offensive yards in games played since 2010.
|10-22-20||Giants +4.5 v. Eagles||Top||21-22||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
8:20 PM EST, Thursday, October 22, 2020
The NFC East Division is a horror show with the Dallas Cowboys getting destroyed by the Arizona Cardinals Monday night and remain in first place with an embarrassing 2-4 straight-up (SU) record. The Philadelphia Eagles have won once while losing four games, including a tie against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Eagles trail the Cowboys by a ½ game in the standings during the Washington Football Team, and New York Giants sport 1-5 SU records and trail by one game. So, a win by any of these inept teams would vault them into a tie for first place.Are the Eagles the Best of the Worst?
In light of how badly the Cowboys played in a 38-10 SU loss to the Arizona Cardinals, any of the four teams can win the NFC East with a losing record. The Eagles tied the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 when head coach Doug Pederson opted to play for the tie and not the win. However, that decision to avoid a loss at all costs looks to be prophetic now.
The Eagles are a terrible team, and any win is significantly magnified in the NFC East standings. None of these teams are poised to rip off three or more consecutive wins and when they meet against a divisional foe earning a win is akin to winning 1.5 victories. The good news is that the Eagles are 5-0 SU and against-the-spread (ATS) in Thursday Night games under Pederson. Two of the five wins have been against the Giants, who are the opponent this Thursday.Injuries Ravage the Eagles
The Eagles have endured so many injuries that they fail to stack up against any opponent right now. Running back Miles Sanders, tight end Zack Ertz, offensive guard/tackle Lane Johnson, and offensive tackle Jack Driscoll are unlikely to play in this game. Ertz is listed as 'OUT' as of Tuesday morning due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the loss to the Ravens that will require at least four weeks to heal.
The Eagles starting wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery remain listed as questionable, and even if they do play, their overall effectiveness is unknown. The most massive personnel problem is having seven offensive linemen on the injury list or injured reserve and how best to plug new linemen into the lineup.The Value of the Short Week
A scheduled game on Thursday Night forces NFL teams to execute more straightforward game plans. For the Eagles, this is a blessing given all the inexperienced backup players now put into starting roles. A simplistic game plan is what the Eagles need immediately to stop making many mental mistakes contributing to their losing ways. After this game, the Eagles have the Cowboys coming to town and then will play these Giants again in the Meadowlands. The Eagles must win all three games because the schedule gets rough, facing five consecutive teams with winning records. The Eagles' current form would not win any of those five games, but a 6-10 record might win the division crown if they hold the bulk of the tie-breakers.Turnovers will determine the Game
This betting system underscores the importance of turnovers that determine the outcome of a football game. The betting system has earned a solid 56-45 SU record and 62-33-6 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets over the last five seasons. There are three simple requirements for this system.
1. Bet on road teams.
2. The road team is coming off two straight games, committing no more than one turnover in each.
3. The host is coming off a game, having forced zero turnovers.
When the road team has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, the record improves to 15-14 SU and 23-5-1 ATS for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons.The New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick:
The machine learning models project that the Giants will gain a minimum of 5.3 yards-per-play (YPPL) and gain more YPPL than the Eagles while scoring at least 20 points. In past games in which the Giants met or exceeded these measures have earned a 66-22 SU record and 68-20 ATS record, good for 77% winning bets over the last ten seasons. When these measures combine with the Giants installed as a road dog, the record improves to 13-1 ATS for 93% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points.
Take the NY Giants plus the points as a Best Bet.
|10-18-20||Broncos +9.5 v. Patriots||Top||18-12||Win||100||5 h 47 m||Show|
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
This line was as high as 10-points and has been steadily moving lower despite the majority of tickets still jumping on the home favorite Patriots.
This NFL betting system supports the Broncos and has earned an outstanding 70% ATS on a 44-19-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. Play on underdogs facing an opponent that is coming off a game with a -3 or worse turnover margin.
The Broncos have the best run defense in the NFL and are only second to the Bucs in total defense. Stopping the run, is key to defeating the Patriots given that they rank 21st in the NFL in overall passing.
The machine learning projections call for the Patriots to not have more than 230 passing yards and that the Broncos will have fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Broncos met or exceeded thes measures as a road dog has seen them earn a solid 14-10 SU record for 58% wins and 18-5-1 ATS for 78% winning bets that covered by an average of 7.7 points.
|10-18-20||Bears +1.5 v. Panthers||Top||23-16||Win||100||4 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM EST, October 18, 2020
7-Star Titan on the Chicago Bears
The Panthers defense has been awful this season ranking 27th overall in the NFL based on my numbers. The flash numbers may indicate a different picture but that one is a smoke and mirrors type. The Bears have been far better than them on defense ranking 6th-best overall and have shown excellent tackling of players in space too. I also have them ranked with the 4th-best pass rush in the NFL as well. They rank 15th with 11 sacks, but they have not been forced to use the blitz to generate pressure on the QB or to get penetration up field. Their defenswive line has been playing quite well and wht the unit ranks fifth in the NFL allowing 465 yards-after-the-catch.
DL Brent Urban, drafted in 2014, is having his best season and combined with Kamil Mack have been great run stoppers. Urbamn is listed as questionable for this game, but is expectd to play. Bilal Nichols has played on 187 snaps and can run a 4.9 Forty and has been getting better each week.
The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Bears in road games are 32-11 SU for 74% wins and 35-6-2 ATS for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points when they held an opponent to fewer than 230 passig yards and had fewer turnovers.
|10-18-20||Falcons +4 v. Vikings||Top||40-23||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bet on Bad NFL Road Teams
There are two betting systems that support the winless Falcons in this road game against the Vikings. The first one has earned a solid 113-69-2 against-the-spread for 62% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements focus on offensive and defensive scoring.
1. Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
2. Their opponents have outscored them by seven or more points-per-game.
3. The dog is coming off back-to-back games, scoring seven or fewer points in the first half in each game.
The second NFL betting focuses on turnovers, which have a huge correlation to wins and losses for any football team. The system has earned a 28-8 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets spanning the last five seasons and has four requirements.
1. Bet on underdogs, including pick-em.
2. The team is mistake-free, averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game.
3. The opponent has a defense that forces an average of 1.25 or fewer turnovers.
4. The opponent is coming off two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover.
The Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Pick:
The Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has been declared ‘OUT’ for this game, suffering from a groin injury. He is a massive part of the Vikings offense and will give the Falcons an even greater chance of winning this game.
The machine learning models project that the Falcons will out gain the Vikings by at least 100 total yards and will score at least 24 points. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 52-5 straight-up (SU) record good for 91% wins and a 49-8 ATS record good for 86% winning bets covered the number an average of 14 points. The Falcons finally hold on to a lead and win the game.