Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
50* graded play ‘OVER’ Jacksonville-Houston in AFC action et to start 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 50 points will be scored in this game. I also have a 25* graded play on Jacksonville and this opens up the rare opportunity to combine the ‘over’ and JAX into a reverse parlay. A reverse bet is essentially just two ‘if’ bets, so it makes sense that we start with looking at what an ‘if’ bet is. An ‘if’ bet is a bet on two or more teams - like a parlay is. The difference between a parlay and an ‘if’ bet, though, is that you have to win all of your games in a parlay or you lose your entire bet, while in an ‘if’ bet you can get some money back if you win just once. So let’s define the outcomes for our game today. We have already placed a $500 reverse parlay bet with JAX and the ‘OVER’. So, if JAX wins ATS and the ‘OVER’ loses we lose $600 factoring in 20% vig. Many books are now going to a 10% vig to encourage more parlays of this type. Next scenario is that the ‘OVER’ wins and JAX does not cover ATS. That too loses $600. If both JAX and the ‘OVER” lose then our worst case scenario is realized with a $1200 loss. If both the ‘OVER’ and JAX win, then the payout is 4:1 and $2,000 is realized. Under a normal parlay, the payout is 13:5, so if both plays win, a gain of $1300 is realized and if either one of the parts of the parlay lose, then a loss of $550 or $600 is realized dependent on the vig percentage. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 mark good for 71.4% winners since 2010. Play ‘Over’ with any team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) slow starting offensive team scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Fundamental Discussion Points Houston is not a good team ranking 30th in scoring offense, 30th in yards-per-game, and 32nd in points-per-play. They score just 1.5 TD-per-game ranking dead last at 32nd by a large margin. JAX defense is a solid unit despite playing far too many downs due to the offense struggles and inconsistencies. The defense ranks 6th allowing 5.0 Yards-per-play and 5th in red zone scoring opponent percentage. Houston ranks 32nd in RZ scoring at just 38% of all possessions. Think about that for a minute. That stat means that Houston can’t even execute a FG success in most situations and TD % is pathetic. JAX offense ranks 16th in RZ scoring at 56% of all possessions. JX QB Bortles has done a solid job with the limited talent he is working with and the lack of consistency the skill players have demonstrated. JAX ranks 14th gaining 256 passing yards per game and third in passing attempts, which reflects playing from behind in the majority of their games. Houston run defense is horrid ranking 28th allowing 126 per game. T.J. Yeldon may have a break-out game today and this too would open up play action, which is where Bortles is at his best. So, I am looking for a 31-17 or 35-21 type game. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 62 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘OVER’ Denver-Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 49 points will be scored in this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 109-55 over the last 10 seasons good for 66.5% winners and made a nice 48.5 units/unit wagered. Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 117-76 OVER (+33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. Del Rio is 30-10 OVER (+19.0 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games in Week 9. Over is 10-4 in Broncos last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 45-21-2 in Broncos last 68 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games in Week 9. Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games overall. Over is 12-3 in Raiders last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 17-6-3 in Raiders last 26 games in November. Over is 14-6-1 in Raiders last 21 vs. AFC. Over is 34-15-2 in Raiders last 51 games following a ATS win. Fundamental Discussion Points Carr leads the AFC with 17 touchdown passes while Cooper had 12 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown last week to boost his team-leading total to 52 receptions while Crabtree hauled in his NFL high-tying sixth touchdown catch. Defense has been a nightmare for the Raiders, who are ranked 31st in the league, surrendering a total of 410.4 total yards while being equally generous against the run and pass. If Bradley Roby can get another pick-6 that will also add to the total. Combining these two teams' points/game averages, they will total over 51 points. Take the OVER. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 43 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
25* graded play ‘UNDER’ NY Giants-Eagles in a huge NFC East game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored this game. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-43 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.3% winners and made 33.7 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - versus division opponents, off a division game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. NFC. Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall. Under is 14-6 in Giants last 20 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Fundamental Discussion Points Philly and New York are ranked FOURTH and TENTH respectively in fewest points allowed per game. Just looking at their average per game defense stats this game would total 36.8 points. The Giants rank a lowly 26th in offensive points per game, so if we combine both offenses' points stats they should score about 44.6 in total. These two teams are built on defense, so I don't see why they wouldn't lean more towards a 37 point total than a 45 point total. Philly will stab themselves in the foot ranking 30th in both penalties per play and per game nearing almost 9 penalties a game. Despite those great numbers they have, they get in their own way. Take the UNDER. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points. How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins. |
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10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 57 m | Show |
50* graded play on the UNDER on Cincinnati versus New England in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 44 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 103-54 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.6% winners and made a big 43.6 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing under 90 rushing yards/game since 1992; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging more than 375 yards/game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 road games. Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC. Fundamental Discussion Points With both teams averaging around 20 points per game and the defenses giving up 22 and 14 points per game, we feel the under is the play in this one. The Bengals running game has struggled this year and the Patriots are not much better when they line up and come at you. Both teams have good pass defenses and the defenses are well coached. Bengals road games have been covering at a 66% rate lately and we feel this total is a little inflated with Tom Brady returning and coming off a big game against the Cleveland Browns last week. We feel it will be a little tougher to move the ball this week and the kickers will get a lot of action. Take the Under. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in Denver at San Diego action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this total score will be UNDER 42 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 82.1% winners and made 24.3 units/unit wagered. Play Under any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season. Another proven system supports this play posting a 32-10 over the last 5 season good for 76.2% winners and made 21 units/unit wagered. Play Under home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992; 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 46-21 UNDER (+22.9 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game since 1992; 26-8 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego. Fundamental Discussion Points Offenses in Thursday games played on the short week since the start of the 2012 season have averaged only 3.89 TDs per game compared to the regular games average of 4.57 TDs per game. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense, San Diego. Melvin Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6. We cannot forget that Denver's defense are still man-eating monsters. Take the UNDER in the total. |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints UNDER 54 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on the UNDER in the Falcons-Saints game, action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER the total. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-40 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Quinn is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games as the coach of Atlanta. Under is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South. Under is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 road games. Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points This line already reflects far and away too many points being scored. Julio Jones is listed as probable in this game. These are divisional opponents, which doesn't make for a good Over play. They had great offenses and awful defenses last year as well, but in their last meeting the total was 37 points. Take the UNDER. |
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12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 46 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
35* graded play ‘OVER’ Chargers/Raiders in Christmas Eve NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that More than 50 points will be scored in this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. Since this is a total play, you may be able to add am adjusted total wager to the line. I am seeing an adjusted total of 54 +205 for the adjusted total. There is also an adjust line lower at 40, but you need to lay -250 to get that line. In my opinion and based on 22 years experience NEVER us a high vig line or ML. It is far better to take advantage of my releases and then play for the bigger return using the ‘dog’ lines to your advantage. For this play consider making a 30* play using the total and then add a 5* play using the adjust total line of 54 +205. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-13 mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play ‘OVER’ with road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) and is a good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing team gaining between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chargers are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Take the ‘OVER’ |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
50* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total int he Buffalo/NY Jets game set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-26 'under' mark good for 71% winners since 2010. Play 'Under' with any team against the total (NY JETS) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 27-12 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in road games when they gain 300 to 350 total yards; 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Buffalo is also 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that the Jets are 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) vs. mistake prone teams 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. On the fundamental front, I see both defenses dominating. Jets have OL problems and Chris Ivory has gained just 1.5 yards per rush over the last three weeks. Buffalo ranks 10th in the NFL allowing 3.9 YPR and will force Fitzpatrick to move the chains. This is where I think the real advantage is for the 'under'. Buffalo does not blitz very often and there will not be any reason to do that in third and long situations tonight either. Buffalo can defense the first down stripe by playing nickel defense in those third situations and force Jets punts. on the flip side, Buffalo has a decent ground attack, but the Jets have an even better run defense. so, with both teams not able to establish the run will make it even more difficult to setup and complete vertical routes. Take the 'UNDER' |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 47 | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
35* graded play 'UNDER' Indianapolis/NY Jets in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. The Colts were shocked in Buffalo last week and know the history of teams that start out 0-2 to the season and greatly diminish their playoff chances. In past situations like this one, the Colts, as do many home favorites (teams that know they are the superior team) put together an aggressive game plan, but one that minimizes errors and turnovers. Luck is an elite QB that can light up a scoreboard, but that is not the goal tonight. If you are interested in a parlay for tonight, I would play the 'UNDER" and Colts minus the points for no more than a 10* amount. I also like using the 'reverse parlay' in these somewhat rare situations where I consider using a parlay. Always remember, teasers and parlays are essentially a major revenue stream for the books and a public betting trap that will NOT work out over the course of a season. As an example, the 3-team 10-point teaser is a financial life threatening proposition that can lead to very poor results over the course of a season. It is negative enough we pay a vig for the opportunity to place a wager with a book in Vegas, so don't be tempted ever to put yourself in situations with greater vigs and lower probabilities. I have the Jets graded as the best Week1 offensive performance, but this was based on a game that was largely out of hand in the second half. What I really liked was that their run defense was exceptional and I expect them to dominate the LOS tonight. Colts defense graded poor;ly against the run, but again, the best NFL teams prepare for the next opponent and make the necessary adjustments to play to full potential. I see this game being played between the 20's and with more FG made than TD scored. Take the 'UNDER'. |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 54 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
50* graded play 'UNDER' when the New England Patriots as host Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game set to start at 6:40 PM ET. I also like the Patriots as a 25* play and would suggest making a 10+ parlay using the Patriots and the 'under'. I would have released this Thursday had it not been for the uncertain weather conditions in Foxborough and the Boston area. Weather can change quickly in this are, especially this time of year. So, rain will be in the forecast and could be extremely heavy drenching rain with winds. I had this play graded as a 50* play prior to the weather forecast and I do feel confident that the weather will support the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will scored and the Patriots will win the game by 9 or more points. In 16 games where Andrew Luck has been installed as a road dog, his offensive production has led to just 19.3 PPG and his defense as allowed 30 PPG. He is 6-10 ATS as a road under dog in his career. Further, the Colts are 5-2 'under' in seven games when facing teams with win percentages between 71 and 81% in the Luck era; 22-13 'under' when facing defenses allowing 5.7 to 7.7 yards per attempt. Patriots defense will show Luck new looks pre-snap that can either fully disguise the post-snap defense or go with what is shown. Luck will never quite know if it is a Belichick bluff or no bluff call. Vince Wilfork’s quickness and explosiveness would be impressive for a man half his size. He uses his massive frame, super strength, and surprisingly nimble feet to set up roadblocks, shed blockers, and cave in ball carriers. Jamie Collins is playing at a very high level and his best single game was against the Colts in Week 11 where he had six stops, six tackles, and 1 QB hurry. The Colts offensive line has not graded well at any point this season. Luck's ability to extend plays has masked some of the real problems along the OL. Only LT Castanzo has a positive grading for the season. Yet, he had five games with negative grades in run blocking this season. Simply, there will be plenty of room for the Patriot elite linebackers led by Collins and Hightower, to find the QB or ball carrier. On the offensive side, the Patriots have 6 active RB on the roster. Jonas Gray went wild against the Colts in Week 11, but it is truly the diversity that this group brings that will make it very difficult for the Colts to defend. Blount is the power pounding RB. Shane Vareen played 41 snaps and 39 of those snaps were pass plays in last week's win. Then add Gray, Bolden, and White to the fray and you can immediately see how difficult it would be for the defense to guess what type of play has been called. I also see Edelman getting one or two attempts on jet sweeps adding more uncertainty for the defense to consider. So, Patriots will control the tempo and attain a significant edge in TOP. Take the 'under' for a 50* play, Patriots for a 25* play and 10* parlay with Patriots and 'under'. |