|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-05-23||Orioles v. Braves -1.5||Top||9-4||Loss||-100||5 h 47 m||Show|
Baltimore vs Atlanta
8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line
|09-06-22||Braves v. A's +1.5||Top||10-9||Win||118||8 h 58 m||Show|
Atlanta Braves vs Oakland A’s
4% 8-Unit bets best on the A’s using the +1.5-run line
Betting against road favorites using the run line with a money line price between a 130 dog and 255 favorite and with a total of 8 or fewer runs that is averaging a minimum of 4.5 RPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games allowing no more than one run in either game has produced a 65-47 record, but has averaged a 116 Run Line bet producing an 18% ROI over the past five seasons.
Oakland is 22-11 making 14 unit son the run line when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
|09-06-22||Mets v. Pirates +1.5||Top||2-8||Win||110||5 h 53 m||Show|
NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
4% 8-Unit bets Bet on the Run Line with the Pirates
An alternative strategy and the way I will be betting this game is to place a 2% amount on the moneyline and a 2% 4-Unit amount using the run line.
Betting on home teams that are scoring 3.8 or fewer RPG and has been hitting poorly at .215 or worse over their last 15 games and now facing a good team with a good bullpen that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 90-59 record good for 60% winners, averaging a +115 dog and producing a 35% ROI over the last 25 seasons.
|08-25-22||Rockies +1.5 v. Mets||Top||1-3||Loss||-100||10 h 33 m||Show|
Colorado vs New York Mets
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Colorado Rockies using the +1.5-run line
For this game, I am splitting into two bets with the Rockies as a 1% 2-unit wager on the money line and a 3% 6-Unit wager on the +1.5-run line getting +160 or more. Since 2004, favorites of –400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs has seen that favorite go 19-8, but by averaging a –432 wager has lost 15 units resulting in a -23% ROI. In the same scenario, these huge favorites have gone 13-11 averaging a –205 bet using the –1.5 run line resulting in a –20% ROI since 2004.
Rockies are 30-16 making 14 units on the moneyline revenging a loss in which they scored no more than a single run in games played over the last two seasons.
|08-23-22||Reds v. Phillies -1.5||Top||6-7||Loss||-100||2 h 52 m||Show|
MLB had one best bet Monday and it came through on the winning side as the Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Reds. Here is tonight’s best bet featuring a pair of situational angles with one nailing down winners at a 75% clip.
|08-19-22||Nationals +1.5 v. Padres||Top||6-3||Win||140||5 h 43 m||Show|
Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330
The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup.
The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons
The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season.
The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season.
I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel.
|07-28-22||Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies||13-0||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line
I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total
Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game.
Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season.
|07-03-22||Angels +1.5 v. Astros||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||4 h 21 m||Show|
LA Angels vs Houston Astros
2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022
4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line
Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004.
Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games.
Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line.
|06-26-22||Phillies +1.5 v. Padres||Top||8-5||Win||100||6 h 34 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs San Diego
4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022
4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line
Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention.
Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60.
|06-05-22||Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees||Top||4-5||Win||130||4 h 40 m||Show|
Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees
11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022
3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line.
I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy.
So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog.
|08-13-21||Rockies +1.5 v. Giants||4-5||Win||100||6 h 42 m||Show|
olorado vs San Francisco
9:45 EST, August 13, 2021
4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado
Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons.