|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-24-21||Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers||Top||10-24||Loss||-117||1 h 2 m||Show|
Washington vs Green Bay
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Football team plus the points
Washington has allowed 30 or more points in four consecutive games, which matches a franchise record done twice before in the 1954 and 2020 seasons. However, note that teams that have allowed 30+ points in three or more consecutive games in week 6 or later are a solid investment returning a 37-19 ATS record for 67% winning bets sine 1990 and 18-8 ATS for 69% winning bets.
Packers are just 9-22 ATS when facing a terrible defense that is allowing 6 or more yards per play on the season. Washington HC Rivera is 9-1 ATS in a road game and has failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games for his career.
|10-24-21||Chiefs -4 v. Titans||Top||3-27||Loss||-106||1 h 1 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Tennessee
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best bet on the Chiefs minus the points
Betting on favorites that are facing a team that is coming off 3 or more consecutive OVER games and is a solid offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game has earned a 47-11 ATS record good for 77% wining bets over the last five seasons and has earned a 22-6 ATS record over the last three seasons.
Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Reid is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or fewer points in the last game.
From the predictive side of things we know that the Chiefs are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed no more than 250 net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons.
|10-24-21||Panthers v. Giants OVER 43||Top||3-25||Loss||-105||1 h 0 m||Show|
Carolina vs NY Giants
1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021
4-UNIT Bet OVER the Total
Carolina is 38-19 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. They are also 34-18 OVER after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored.
Despite the large numbers of Giant injuries, the predictive models show a high probability that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points and that puts the final score above the current 42.5-point total pretty easily.
|10-23-21||USC v. Notre Dame OVER 59||Top||16-31||Loss||-109||8 h 15 m||Show|
USC vs Notre Dame
7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2021
10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
The total for this game of 59 points and with the Irish favored by 7 points implies a 33-26 Notre Dame home win. My models underscore the probability that these two teams will score often and that it will take at least 34 points to win this game. The Irish are 15-8 OVER when they have scored 28 or more points in home games spanning the past five seasons and 25-12-1 OVER with head coach Kelly dating back to the start of the 2010 season. Plus, a perfect 10-0 OVER under Kelly in games in which both teams have scored 28 or more points. USC is 11-1 OVER in games in which they and their opponents both scored more than 28 points. The OVER is 18-1 when USC has allowed 31 or more points.
|10-23-21||West Virginia v. TCU -4.5||29-17||Loss||-108||8 h 32 m||Show|
West Virginia vs TCU
7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2021
4-Uni Bet on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points
Both teams have had disappointing starts to their seasons. No one thought WVU would be 2-4 through 7 weeks and would share the last place with Kansas and Kansas State. TCU is fresh off a 52-31 loss to Oklahoma in Norman, but had a career-best performance from QB Max Duggan and WR Quentin Johnston. Duggan injured his foot, but has been cleared to start in this game.
West Virginia ranks in the bottom half of the conference in most significant offensive categories, including rushing offense (111.8 yards per game, last in the B12).
The Mountaineers' problem running the ball is gives TCU a monumental advantage at the line of scrimmage. Leddie Brown ran for 1,010 yards last season and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection, is rushing for an average of just 70.3 yards per game this season. The offensive line run blocking has been terrible to say the least and they are not getting a push down field or maintaining blocks long enough for Brown to shoot through the gaps.
From the predictive models, TCU is projected to pass for an average of at least 10 yards per pass attempt and score at least 28 points. In past games over the last 5 seasons, TCU is 24-13 ATS for 65% when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-1-1 ATS in games scoring 28+ and averaging 10 or more YPPA over the last five seasons.
|10-23-21||New Mexico +20 v. Wyoming||Top||14-3||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
New Mexico vs Wyoming
3:30 October 23, 2021
4-UNIT BET on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points
Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS coming off a game in which 24 or fewer points were scored. Wyoming was blanked by Fresno State 17-0 last week. Wyoming 1-5 ATS off a game scoring three or fewer points.
There may be as many as six different quarterbacks taking snaps in this game as both coaches attempt to get anemic offenses moving on the field. Low totals such as this one at 40.5/41 points makes it so much easier for a double digit underdog to cover the number. The market has this game as an implied 30-10 Wyoming win and I do not think Wyoming will get more than 27 in this matchup.
Betting on road dogs that have allowed 31 or more points in three straight games and are facing a foe that was defeated by 17 or more points in their last game has earned a highly profitable 60-24 ATS for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
|10-23-21||Colorado v. California -8.5||Top||3-26||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
California vs Colorado
3:30 PM EST, October 22, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the California Golden Bears minus the points
Colorado is just 16-36 after two consecutive games rushing the ball for 125 or fewer yards and 19-42 ATS coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnover. Cal head coach Wilcox is 15-5-1 ATS off three consecutive conference games.
From my predictive models we learn that Cal is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 101-48-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points in a game. Cal is 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining 400 or more total yards as well.
|10-17-21||Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 43||Top||20-23||Push||0||8 h 19 m||Show|
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
8:20 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
This total has moved 6 points lower since the preseason price was set at 48 points by the West Gate Super Book. The movement is based on the news surrounding the matchup and dominated by the absence of Russell Wilson from the lineup. Even with him out of the game, the models clearly show a high probability that Seattle will be effective on offense and will score points.
Pete Carroll is 22-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points for his coaching career at Seattle. He is also 54-33 OVER following a game in which his offense gained six or more yards per play and 33-15 OVER in non-conference matchups.
From the predictive models, we learn that the OVER is 11-2 over the last seasons in games that the Steelers gained at least 300 passing yards and gained at least 100 rushing yards.
Bet the OVER
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots OVER 50||Top||35-29||Win||100||4 h 24 m||Show|
Dallas vs New England
4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets.
Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts.
With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.
|10-17-21||Cardinals +3 v. Browns||Top||37-14||Win||100||4 h 5 m||Show|
Arizona vs Cleveland
4:05 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points
The sentiment readings are among the widest of ant NFL game over the last five seasons and reflects the betting community’s love affair with the Browns in this matchup. This is a contrarian reading and measure as I had mentioned with Teddy Covers on the Sirius XM Sportsgrid show yesterday. My Twitter application confirms and underscores the wildly bullish exuberance on the Browns and even the Circa Millions has an incredible 1695 entries picking the Browns as one of their 5 picks this week. So, 41% of the total entries in the contest are on the Browns and this rarely works out for the majority when the percentage is even above 25% of the total entries.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play and have gained 400 or more yards in at least three straight games has earned a 46-13 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. Over the past three seasons the angle has earned an amazing 27-7 ATS record.
From the predictive models, we learn that NFL teams that gain a minimum of 7.5 yards per pass attempt and score ay least 27 points are 468-143-28 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2016. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS on the road and scoring 27 or more points and gaining 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last 5 seasons.
|10-17-21||Texans v. Colts OVER 44.5||Top||3-31||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
Houston vs Indianapolis
Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons.
From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons.
Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|10-17-21||Packers v. Bears +5.5||Top||24-14||Loss||-104||1 h 3 m||Show|
Green Bay vs Chicago
1:00 PM EST, Week 6, October 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points
Consider adding no more than a 0.75 unit amount betting the Bears using the money line.
The Bears passing attack has been anemic gaining a league-low 729 yards, but let’s hold a minute before simply assuming the netter pedigree Packers are the automatic winner. Teams that have gained fewer than 750 passing yards over a five-game span and are now installed as a dog have earned a 167-131-9 ATS record over the last five seasons. If our dog is installed as no more than a 7.5 point underdog then the record has been 88-58-4 ATS over the last three seasons. Moreover, if filter dogs in a divisional matchup are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last three seasons.
The Bears showed they can still gain on the ground even with Montgomery sidelined, running for 143 yards against Las Vegas. Rookie Khalil Herbert rushed for 75 on 18 carries, while Williams had 64 yards. So, if Montgomery and/or Damien Williams (Covid-19 list Thursday) will be a major addition. I still like this bet quite a bit with just Herbert as the lead running back. Moreover, the Packers will without three 2020 Pro Bowl players in left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith. I do believe Chicago was significant matchup advantages going up against their replacements.
The Bears are 25-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7.5 points over the last 30 seasons. Packers are a money-burning 3-13 ATS in road games and riding the crest of a four or more-game win streak. The Bears are the bet.
|10-17-21||Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +6.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-108||1 h 2 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Washington
1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points
Betting against any team that is coming off a game in which they lost the turnover battle by three or more and in a matchup of teams, whose defenses force 1.25 or fewer opponent turnovers per game has earned a 31-10 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
The Chiefs committed 4 turnovers in their humiliating home loss to the Buffalo Bills and their defense has not forced an opponent turnover in three consecutive games. The Chiefs have many problems on both sides of the ball and injuries are making those problems very difficult, if not impossible to solve. Both Washington and KC have gotten just four turnovers from their opponents this season.
Head coach Reid is just 11-23 ATS after failing to cover the number in two of their last three games.
Bet the Washington Football Team as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|10-16-21||Ole Miss v. Tennessee +2.5||Top||31-26||Loss||-100||28 h 18 m||Show|
Mississippi vs Tennessee
7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Tennessee plus the points
I’ll get right under the hood of this money-making machine NCAAF Betting angle. Betting on any team in a game lined between 3.5 points on either side of pick, and is facing a decent team outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 or more PPG and are coming off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points in two consecutive games has earned a 44-14-2 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.
Here is a second betting angle that has produced 80% winning bets on a 31-8 ATS record spanning the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on two consecutive wins of 10 or more points over conference foes and in a matchup of winning programs sporting win percentages between 60 and 85% for the season.
From my predictive models, Tennessee is expected to score 27 or more points and win the turnover battle. In past home games, Tennessee is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections.
Bet Tennessee as a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|10-16-21||Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5||Top||33-20||Loss||-103||28 h 17 m||Show|
Iowa State vs Kansas State
7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021
4% Best Bet on Kansas State plus the points
I will be sprinkling the money line on this bet. So, bet a 4% amount taking the points and then add no more than 0.75 amount using the money line.
From my predictive models, K-State is projected to contain ISU to fewer than 150 rushing yards and win the turnover battle. In past home games, K-State is 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections. When installed as a home dog, K-State is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past five seasons meeting or exceeded this pair or performance measures.
ISU head coach Campbell is 0-7 ATS coming off three games gaining 450 or more-total yards in each one. K-State is 22-6-1 ATS after two consecutive games in which they failed to gain more than 125 rushing yards.
Bet K-State as a 4% Best bet and add no more than a 0.75 bet amount using the money line.
|10-16-21||Rutgers v. Northwestern +2||Top||7-21||Win||100||21 h 49 m||Show|
Rutgers vs Northwestern
Noon EST, October 16, 2021
4% Best Bet on Northwestern plus the points
Betting homme underdogs that are facing an opponent that has allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last two games has earned an outstanding 50-24-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Drilling down a bit further, we learn that when the matchup is between same conference foes, the record improves to 43-20 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
Rutgers lost a tough-fought game 20-13 loss at Michigan on Sept. 25 but then followed that with horrid showings at home by dropping a 52-13 decision to Ohio State and a 31-13 setback to Michigan State. Rutgers is not playing well on both sides of the ball, and especially in the secondary where they allowed 588 total yards including TD catches of 63 and 65-yards and a 94-yard TD run to MSU.
Northwestern has played poorly as well, but have not made anywhere close to the number of mental mistakes that Rutgers has made. Bet Northwestern plus the points.
|10-15-21||Clemson -13.5 v. Syracuse||Top||17-14||Loss||-110||5 h 24 m||Show|
Clemson vs Syracuse
7:00 PM EST, October 15, 2021
4% Best Bet on Clemson minus the points
The current line of -13.5 and 44.5 total points implies the market stating the final score will by 29-16 Clemson win. My predictive models also expect Clemson to score at least 31 points. Clemson is 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS when scoring 31 or more points in games played over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS for 80% in road games and scoring 31 or more points spanning the past five seasons.
Betting on road favorites from 10 to 21.5 points that are facing a host coming off one or more ats wins has earned a 85-39-2 ATS record over the last five seasons for 70% winning bets.
Bet Clemson minus the points, currently -13.5 and good to bet up to an including – 15.5.
|10-10-21||Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52||Top||20-44||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM EST, October 10, 2021
10-UNIT Total of the Month OVER the posted total
This is my first 10-UNIT play in the NFL and have won a 10-UNIT play on Colorado State +24.5 points, who covered easily by 14 points against Iowa.
After trailing the fourth by 11 points, the Giants stormed backed and shocked the Saints in overtime 27-21 and marked the first time since 2011 that they trailed by 10 or more entering the fourth quarter and won the game That is certainly a confidence booster for the entire team, especially the offense as they travel to Dallas in Week 5.
The Cowboys, mostly done my Prescott, have thrown at least one TD in each of their last 26 home games and is the longest streak in franchise history. The struggling Steelers hold the current streak with 32 games and throwing for at least one TD, which is shocking.
Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards and was his first 400+ passing game and the first since Eli Manning threw for 434 in the 2017season. The offensive line did a great job giving Jones time to scan the field allowing no sacks to the Saints. In fact, it was the first game this season in which neither team recorded a sack.
Dallas is 22-9 OVER in home games after outrushing their opponent by 100 or more yards in their previous game and 39-17 OVER in home games after outrushing an opponent by 75 or more yards. Dallas I on a 6-0 OVER streak installed as a home favorite; 27-12 OVER in home tilts and on a 3 or more game win streak. Head coach McCarthy is 15-3 OVER in a home game after scoring 35 or more points for his career.
From the predictive side of things, my models show a high probability that Dallas will score at least 27 points and gain at least 400 total offensive yards. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 10-2 OVER record for 83.3% winning bets spanning the past three seasons; 16-4 OVER for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|10-09-21||Alabama v. Texas A&M +18||Top||38-41||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
No. 1 Alabama vs Texas A&M
10-UNIT Best Bet on Texas A&M plus the points. Plus, not more than 2-UNIT bet on the money line OR wait till in-game, and if Alabama scores first then get the 2-UNIT money line bet executed. I like the latter choice to wait in-game and see.
Prior to the start of the season, the WestGate had this game lined as A&M installed as a 7.5-point home dog. So, the recent performances of these two teams, especially Alabama, has caused the market to explode in favor of Alabama. The result, though, has been that akin to stock trading, Alabama is now in severely overbought territory, while A&M is a bit over sold. My predictive models are expecting more of a single-digit type of game, but not higher than 14 points.
Betting on any team that is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing a team that has played in three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored have earned a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Plus, defending national champions that are 5-0 in the following season do get overpriced and a result are just 6-11 ATS when installed as a favorite and 2-7 ATS when installed as a a road favorite. A&M is also 23-9 ATS in home games after two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover and Fisher is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the previous game.
|10-09-21||Michigan v. Nebraska +3||Top||32-29||Push||0||26 h 59 m||Show|
Michigan vs Nebraska
7:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on Nebraska plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
I do believe there is major chance that Nebraska can get the win in this matchup. Betting on a home team using the money line that is coming off a game in which they were leading at the half by at least 24 points and has a defense allowing no more than 17 PPG on the season.
Nebraska head coach Frost is a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog and coming off a SU and ATS win. Nebraska is 37-18 ATS facing teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game. Michigan is 2-12 ATS off an upset road win.
From the predictive models, Nebraska is 11-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 137-65-4 ATS over the last 20 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points.
|10-09-21||UTSA +3.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||52-46||Win||100||26 h 31 m||Show|
South Alabama vs Texas State
4% Best Bet on Texas State plus the points
Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of October and after failing to the spready by a total of 28 or more points spanning their last three games has earned a quite strong 82-40-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the last 10 football seasons and went 21-7 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.
Make no mistake about it, Texas State has played a much more difficult schedule than South Alabama has so far this season. SA is a money-burning 14-37 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover.
|10-09-21||Boise State +6 v. BYU||Top||26-17||Win||100||22 h 13 m||Show|
Boise State vs No. 10 BYU
3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on Boise State plus the points
BYU is 5-0 and ranked no. 10 nationally in the latest polls. Week 6 is by far the week that sees the most upsets and surprising ATS covers too. The market builds momentum on these 5-0 teams and then in week 6 and 7 become overvalued OR they are playing a foe that is grossly undervalued. In this matchup it is a combination of the two and we are getting rewarded handsomely to bet on Boise plus the points.
Boise has a bit of revenge on their minds as well after getting dominated 51-17 in a loss to BYU last season. Boise lost at Nevada last week, 41-31, their most points allowed since allowing 51 to BYU in 2020. BYU has learned they have three quarterbacks that can manage the game. Quarterback health will be a determining factor in how high the Cougars can climb this season. Jaren Hall started the first three games before missing two contests with a rib injury. Baylor Romney started against South Florida and Utah State, but he played one half against the Aggies before sitting out the second half with a concussion. Jacob Conover, BYU's third-string quarterback, finished out the game against Utah State, helping to secure the 34-20 victory. Hall is listed as questionable for this game and given that it is a ribs injury, I can’t imagine him being able to throw the ball well.
BYU is just 2-10 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 58% or higher completions in games played over the last three seasons. BYU is 10-23 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
|10-09-21||Central Michigan v. Ohio +5.5||Top||30-27||Win||100||22 h 0 m||Show|
Central Michigan vs Ohio University
3:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on CMU minus the points
Ohio University is 2-14 ATS when playing against a team that is no more than one game under 0.500 or not lower than 40% in games played over the last 10 seasons. Ohio is an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home games following a game in which they forced that opponent into no more than one turnover. CMU head coach McElwain is 16-3 ATS when facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 200 or more rushing yards-per-game on the season.
From the predictive side of things, there is a very high probability that CMU will score at least 28 points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they have gone on to a 12-2 ATS record over the last three seasons and 83-25 over the last 20 seasons.
Playing on road favorites that are facing a host that has a very poor turnover defense that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and after 5 straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them has earned a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|10-09-21||Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5||Top||55-48||Loss||-110||18 h 30 m||Show|
No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 21 Texas
Noon EST, October 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on Texas plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line
This game is taking place at the famed Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas and hopefully will remain the game called the Red River Rivalry after these teams join the SEC. Texas QB Casey Thompson is a bit of a trader at least perhaps in his family eyes. His brother and father both started at QB for the Sooners, but Casey chose Texas and sat behind Sam Ehlinger for his first three seasons as a Longhorn. He took over the starting job in Week 3 of this season and the offenses has looked monumentally better under his leadership. Including 272 rushing yards in its 32-27 win over TCU last week, Texas has rushed for 1035 yards over its last three games, its most in a three-game span since ripping off 1111 yards from October 15 to November 5, 2011. This is the difference maker in my eyes in this matchup and why I think Texas will not just cover the spread, but win the game.
From the predictive models, Texas will score at least 28 points in this game and are on a 7-1 ATS win streak when playing away from Austin.
|10-08-21||Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 53||Top||10-28||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
Stanford over Arizona State
10:30 PM EST, October 8, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total
As you may know, I was on Stanford and called their upset win over then-No.3 Oregon. Stanford now takes to the road to play No. 22 Arizona State, who was my PAC-12 Game of the Month winner (5-UNIT or 5%) that covered by 23 points over UCLA. We are not playing a side in this matchup, but coming off a big-time highly emotional upsets, these teams are likely to play UNDER the posted total tonight
Arizona State overpowered the Bruins on both sides of the ball, although the Cardinal defense allowed similar yards to UCLA as the Sun Devils' unit. UCLA gained 455 yards against Stanford and 435 against Arizona State. The big difference in this matchup is the ASU ground attack featuring Rachaad, DeaMonte Trayanum, and quarterback Jayden Daniels. I conclude from my matchup analysis that Stanford will be able to contain the ASU ground attack and make this a game played mostly between the 20’s and with more FG than TDs scored.
Betting the UNDER in games lined between 49.5 and 56.5 points and matchup of two teams winning 60% or more of their games in the current season and with one of those teams having won two of their last three games has earned an outstanding 66-34-2 UNDER record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|10-04-21||Raiders v. Chargers -3||Top||14-28||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
8:20 PM EST Monday, October 4, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and are only the fourth team in NFL history to win two of their first three games in overtime. Th Raiders have won the last two road games against the Chargers, but they have not won three straight since 2001. The Chargers are a winning record team through Week 3 for the first time since 2014. Interesting to note that these two teams have squared off on Monday Night Football 10 times with each team winning five. The road team has won five of the last six and the home team has not won since the Chargers won in a 12-6 all-FG game back in 1995. Enough of the history lesson. Let’s move on to the stuff that matters most.
Betting on any team that is facing an opponent that is averaging 375 or more total yards-per-game and with that team having gained 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games has earned an outstanding 37-12-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and 21-6-1 ATS spanning the last three seasons.
LC head coach Gruden is 0-7 ATS following a win of three or fewer points.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS when they have won the turnover battle, having committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the last five seasons.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49.5||19-17||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs New England
4% Best Bet on the UNDER
Betting UNDER in a matchup of streaks has paid off well over the past 10 seasons. Betting UNDER with a road team on a three or more-game OVER streak (Bucs) and being hosted by a team that is on a 3 or more-game UNDER streak has seem the UNDER go 21-11 over the past 10 seasons.
Betting UNDER where the home team is coming off a double-digit upset loss has earned an 72-27-1 record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if that upset loss was by 14 or more points, then the UNDER improves to 46-15-1 for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
|10-03-21||Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45||Top||17-27||Win||100||4 h 12 m||Show|
Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
4:25 PM EST, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the UNDER
I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game with any team regardless of home or away (Steelers) that are coming off an embarrassing double-digit loss to a divisional foe and has a win percentage of 20 to 40% on the season has earned a 38-9-1 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle has earned a 9-2 UNDER record spanning the past three seasons.
Steelers head coach Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER facing a suspect defense that is allowing 28 or more PPG in games played over the past three seasons. Steelers are 22-7 UNDER for 75% in a road game and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite.
|10-03-21||Seahawks v. 49ers -2.5||Top||28-21||Loss||-107||4 h 53 m||Show|
Seattle vs San Francisco
4% Best Bet on the 49ers minus the points
The betting frenzy continues with the love-affair the public is having betting on the road dog Seahawks. With a line at now SF as a 2.5-point favorite has me going to window aggressively and even will add a small amount of 1% on the money line at -133 or lower. I also suggest betting this game placing 50% of your 4% (4-UNIT) bet amount pre-flop (before the game starts) and then look to add 25% of your 4-Unit bet size if Seattle scores first and scores via any scoring play except a safety. Add the remaining 25% if Seattle has a 10-point lead. These in-game bets are valid for the first half only. So, if SF gets out to a strong start it, you may end up with only the 50% preflop bet.
From the predictive models I have developed over two decades, we learn that the 49ers are 17-3 ATS and 20-0 SU in home games in which they had fewer turnovers than their opponent and scored at least 27 points in games played over the past 10 seasons.
|10-03-21||Titans v. Jets +6||Top||24-27||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
Tennessee vs NY Jets
1:00 PM EST Sunday, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Jets plus the points
I like taking these types of NFL dogs and adding no more than 1-Unit to the money in addition to the 4-UNIT amount wagered with the spread. Over the course of the entire season, these sprinkles will add more profits to your bottom line.
Betting on underdogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they lost to the turnover battle by two or more has earned a 98-53-1 ATS record over the last five seasons. Drilling down a bit further in to the massive database we learn that betting on underdogs that are facing a struggling defense forcing less than one turnover-per-game and coming off a game with a turnover margin of 3 or worse has earned an incredible 25-5 ATS record for 83.3% winning bets and sprinkle has earned an 19-11 straight-up record over the past five seasons.
The Jets are 0-3 for the third consecutive season after the team's 26-0 loss against the Broncos. It is the first time ever that the Jets have been 0-3 in three consecutive seasons. These losses were against the best defenses in the NFL, especially Denver. So, now they face a Tennessee defensive unit that has forced just one turnover this season/ That lone take-away occurred in a Week 1 interception by safety Kevin Byrd. My research makes me confident you will see better blocking, fewer mistakes in pass routes, and superior chemistry in the play calling between OC LeFleur and their rookie QB Zach Wilson.
|10-03-21||Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5||Top||28-36||Win||100||5 h 53 m||Show|
Carolina vs Dallas
1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 3, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
2-Unit Best Bet OVER Carolina team TOTAL
2-UNIT Best Bet OVER Dallas team TOTAL
Betting the OVER in the first four weeks of the regular season with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a double-digit win over a divisional rival has earned a 25-11 OVER record for 69.5% winning bets over the past five seasons. In games with a total of 50 or more points, the OVER is 7-2 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons.
No doubt, the loss of McCaffrey is monumental, but we have seen a rejuvenated Sam Darnold lead the offense with his arm and also his legs scoring two rushing TDs in their win over the Texans last Thursday. Of course, Dallas is much better than the Texans, but Dallas secondary is very suspect and Darnold will use play action often to free the linebackers and have time to scan the field for the best situation. So, I see Carolina scoring points and like playing OVER their team total of 22.5 points and OVER Dallas team points at 27.5 points at even money.
|10-03-21||Chiefs v. Eagles OVER 54.5||42-30||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST, October 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on the OVER
This will be the first time that former Eagles head coach Andy Reid will be back at the Lincoln Financial Field. His Chiefs have lost 2 straight games and have not lost three straight since the 2017 season, in which Alex Smith was then benched in favor of Mahomes. Chiefs defense is allowing 31.7 PPG and the Eagles offense is young, but very gifted with elite vertical speed. KC defense has not been able to mount any sort of pass rush and now face a quick QB in Hurts, who can easily extend plays making the Chiefs secondary even more vulnerable to the deep routes.
I think the game plan for the Chiefs will be simply to put more points on the scoreboard than the Eagles and get into a big-time shootout.
Betting the OVER with any team coming off a divisional matchup loss and facing a team that is coming off a road loss to a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 55-23 record for 71% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons.
Eagles are on a 9-1 OVER streak when facing a poor defense that is allowing 5 or more rushing yards per game. Chiefs are 10-2 OVER in road games off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional foe.
|10-02-21||Arizona State +3 v. UCLA||Top||42-23||Win||100||15 h 40 m||Show|
Arizona State vs UCLA
10:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021
5% 10-UNIT Best bet on ASU plus the points.
Betting on road teams in game lined with 3.5 points on either side of pick that outgained their previous opponent by more than 125 total yards and facing a host that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned a 72-28-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
Saturday's game will feature two potent rushing offenses that are fueled by their running quarterbacks. UCLA has gained 200 or more rushing yards in seven of its last 10 games and has held the advantage in the run game in 10 consecutive games. Arizona State is at 211.5 rushing yards per game this season, second best in the conference, while averaging 3.8 rushing touchdowns in each contest. The biggest difference between these two similar teams is the significantly weaker secondary of UCLA. They are getting scorched for 331 passing YPG, which ranks fifth worst in the nation. Jayden Daniels has increased his completion percentage from 58.3 last season to 72.6 this season, which is the third-largest improvement at +14.3 percent in the FBS with a minimum of 75 attempts each year.
Bet ASU plus the points as a 5% 10-UNIT Best Bet
|10-02-21||Indiana v. Penn State UNDER 53.5||Top||0-24||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
Indiana vs Penn State
7:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021
4% Best Bet 8-UNIT on the UNDER
I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game lined between 49.5 and 57 points with a home team that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and have committed no more than one turnover in four consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 64-25 UNDER record good for 72% wining bets over the last ten seasons.
PSU is 22-10 UNDER in home games coming off game installed as a favorite that they did not cover the spread. Bet the UNDER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|10-02-21||Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama||Top||21-42||Loss||-110||8 h 46 m||Show|
Mississippi vs Alabama
3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021
4% Best Bet on Mississippi plus the points and a 1% amount on the money line
After Ole Miss won in back-to-back season of 2014 and 2015, Alabama has won five consecutive games in this SEC series, outscoring the Rebels 298-132. Since 2013, the Crimson Tide are 54-2 in Tuscaloosa. The two losses came against No. 1 LSU 46-41 in 2019, the other was to No. 15 Ole Miss 43-37in 2015. After the 2015 loss in Week 3, the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship over Clemson capping off a 12-game win streak.
The Rebels top the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game, are fourth with 7.65 per play and slot fourth in rushing offense at 298.7 per contest. They have committed just two turnovers.
QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, throwing for 997 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. He has rushed for five scores. He also passed for 365 yards and two TDs in last season’s 63-48 loss and having that experience is invaluable knowing too, that he will be facing a Crimson Tide defensive unit that has regressed significantly from previous seasons.
Florida gashed the Tide for 245 rushing yards on 43 rushing plays. The Florida defense did not even gain100 rushing yards tallying just 91 yards on 28 carries against the Florida defense. I believe Mississippi is superior on both sides of the ball comparted to Florida and is why I think the upset has very real potential Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.
|10-02-21||Oklahoma -11.5 v. Kansas State||Top||37-31||Loss||-102||8 h 33 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs Kansas State
3:30 PM EST, October 1, 2021
4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on Oklahoma minus the points
Betting on road teams with an elite defensive team allowing 8 or fewer first-half-points per game and coming off a hard-fought win of 6 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 30-7-1 ATS record good for 81% wining bets. Drilling down a bit further to include teams in the situation installed as a road favorite and the results improve to a remarkable 23-3-1 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons.
From the predictive models, Oklahoma will outgain Kansas State by at least two or more-YPPL and have earned a highly profitable 10-3 SATS the last 3 seasons and 92-29 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.
|10-02-21||Michigan v. Wisconsin -2||Top||38-17||Loss||-110||4 h 10 m||Show|
Michigan vs Wisconsin
Noon EST PM EST, October 1, 2021
4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points
Michigan is off to a 4-0 start to their season and will look to make it five straight with a win for the first time in 20 seasons when they visit the Badgers in Madison. This is also the first road game for the Wolverines, who have lost the last 5 meetings in Madison.
The Badgers failed to appear in the AP-25 top rankings after a 41-13 loss Saturday to 9th ranked Notre Dame. The score was quite misleading though, as the Badgers made far too many mistakes and turnovers including TWO pick-6 and special teams TDs in the 4th quartter. They had a 13-10 lead in the 4th stanza before completely imploding. They are an incredibly good defensive team and especially at stopping the run. They held ND to just 9 yards rushing and are allowing 23 RYPG over their first three games.
Michigan is averaging 350 RYP and 47 PPG in their four games but struggled in their conference opener against Rutgers. Despite leading 20-3 at the half, they had just 2 FD in the second half and held on for 20-13 win and were ‘out-statted’ in the box score too. I see Wisconsin dominating both sides of the line-of-scrimmage and winning this game potential in cruise-control fashion.
From my predictive models, Wisconsin is expected to outgain Michigan by 150 to 200 total yards and in past games when they have achieved this level of performance, they have earned a 28-7 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
|10-01-21||Iowa v. Maryland OVER 47.5||Top||51-14||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
No. 5 Iowa vs Maryland
8:00 PM EST Friday, October 1, 2021
4% Best Bet OVER the posted total
The OVER is 10-3-1 in week 5 games in which the teams involved in the matchup have seen the UNDER cash in each of their first four games over the past 10 seasons. The markets has underpriced the scoring capabilities of both teams in this matchup. The OVER is 108-54-4 in week 5 action with both teams undefeated and 23-12 OVER if the line is between 3.5 points on either side of pick. Plus, it the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points the OVER is 10-5-1 for 67% winning bets.
The Hawkeyes have scored at least 24 points in all four games this year, their longest streak to start a season since 2015. Their previous longer streak was an eight-game streak to begin the 2010 season. Iowa QB Spencer Petras had 2 touchdown passes markig his first multi-TD game of the season last week. Petras has now led Iowa to 10 straight wins, the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind Alabama (18) and Oklahoma (12), throwing 12 TDs and three interceptions in those games.
Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 384 yards against Kent State, 10 yards shy of tying a career high. His 75.5 completion percentage (111-for-147) leads FBS among players with at least 75 attempts. The Terrapins are 4-0 for the first time since 2016, marking their last 5-0 start since 2001, in which they won their first seven games on their way to a 10-2 finish and an invite to the Orange Bowl.
Maryland head coach Locksley is 27-13 OVER playing a game on a short week. Iowa HC Ferentz is 22-11 OVER facing above average offensive teams averaging 450 or more-yards-per-game.
|09-30-21||Virginia +5.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||30-28||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
Virginia vs Miami (Fla)
7:30 PM EST, September 30, 2021
5% or 10-UNIT Best bet on UVA plus the points
The line opened with Miami favored by 3.5 points and early bettor action has moved the market to Miami -3. Both teams are 2-2 SU on the season and this is a pivotable game for both programs. Miami QB D’Eriq King is listed as questionable and even if he does play is not likely to be even close to 80% full strength. The reason this big bet is being released so early in the week is that the line is likely to move closer to pick-em than say 4.5 points.
UVA head coach Mendenhall is 20-7-1 ATS in his coaching career coming off a back-to-nack games losing the turnover battle. Miami head coach Diaz is a money-losing 1-8 ATS off of a home win.
Betting on road teams that are coming off a game forcing zero turnovers and now facing an opponent that is coming off four consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover has earned a highly profitable 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 55% of the winning bets covered the spread by at least 7 points.
Supporting the SU win by UVA is a money line situational angle that has earned a 20-14 record for 60% winning bets that have averaged a +180 wager. Bet on road teams that are coming off back-to-back games allowing 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt and taking on a host that allowed 5.5 passing yards-per-attempt in their last game. I state confidently that UVA will win this game outright even if Miami’s King starts and even greater margin if he does not.
|09-27-21||Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5||21-41||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Dallas
8:20 PM EST Monday, September 27, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points
Dallas is 40-19 ATS coming off a game in which they allowed 300 or more passing yards; 36-18 ATS in home games coming off a game in which they outgained 75 or more rushing yards. Dallas head coach McCarthy is 23-8-1 ATS after a two game road trip; 26-9 ATS in home gamers off of a road win.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications I fully expect Dallas to score at least 28 points. In past games, in which they scored 28 or more points in a home game facing a divisional foe, they are 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets. Plus, they are an incredible 42-9 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points and gaining more rushing yards than their divisional opponent.
|09-26-21||Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 54.5||Top||17-30||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Seattle vs Minnesota
4:25 PM EST, September 26, 2021
4% Best Bet UNDER
Betting the UNDER with any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, as is Seattle, and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more point has earned a highly profitable 32-9 UNDER record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. 24 of the 31 winning bets went UNDER by an average of 7 or more points.
An alternative strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size for a 4% play and then look to add 25% more at 59.5 points and 62.5 points, BUT ONLY if this occurs in the first half of the game.
Bet the UNDER for a 4% Best Bet
Ryan is the reigning No. 1 ranked NFL professional hitting 65.8% ATS for the 2020 season. This 4% (4-Unit) Total is reinforced by an 79% wining situational angle and LIVE in GAME betting strategy that Ryan will be executing during this late afternoon game.
|09-26-21||Chargers v. Chiefs -7||Top||30-24||Loss||-100||1 h 4 m||Show|
LA Chargers vs Kansas City
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 26, 2021
4% Best Bet on Kansas City minus the points
The Chargers lost at home to the Cowboys in Week 2. It marked their 16th loss of 7 or fewer points since the 2019 season, most in the NFL. They had 12 costly drive stopping penalties costing them 99 yards marking the most mistakes and penalty yards since Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens 36-35 despite leading by 11 through three quarters. It marked the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs blew a double-digit lead entering the fourth stanza. Now, 29-1 with a double-digit lead entering the fourth.
Stylistically, Brandon Staley's Chargers defense has shown similarities to his 2020 Rams defense through two weeks. The Chargers has shown two-high safeties pre-snap on a league-high 85% of their defensive snaps, and they've had six or fewer defenders in the box 67% of the time (fourth). It's a defense built around limiting explosive passing plays, so Chiefs will look to get the ground game well established early on knowing they allowed 6.4 YPR to the Cowboys ground attack. The Rams defense, by the way, allowed just 41 gains of 20-plus yards last season (12 fewer than any other defense).
The Chiefs will be a major test of that defensive philosophy given their 233 pass plays of 20 or more yards since Mahomes took over in 2018 rank second in the league to only Tampa Bay’s 253 pass plays. The Chargers defense, like all other defenses that face the Chiefs, will choose between a double-team of Hill or Kelce. The Ravens doubled Hill and gave up seven catches for 109 yards to Kelce.
The Chargers are 1-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game spanning the past three seasons.
From the predictive side of things, The Chiefs are expected to score at least 28 points in this game and are 17-8 ATS for 678% winning bets in games played over the past 5 seasons when scoring 28+ points.
|09-26-21||Cardinals v. Jaguars +8.5||Top||31-19||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
Arizona vs Jacksonville
1:00 PM EST, September 25, 2021
4% Best Bet on Jacksonville plus the points and add a small sprinkle using the money line.
Kyler Murray is the first QB in NFL history to have at least three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in each of his first two games of a season. Trevor Lawrence's 84 pass attempts are the fourth most by any QB in the Super Bowl era over his first two career games, behind Joe Burrow (97), Kyler Murray (94) and Mike Glennon (86). Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 350 or more yards in 15 straight games and is the second-longest streak in NFL history. However, my predictive models show solid expectations that this will be the game that ends that streak.
Jacksonville has lost 6 straight games by double digits. However, past teams, who have lost 6 straight by double digits, and installed as a 7.5 to 11.5 point underdog has earned an 8-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Further good news for the Jags are that 0-2 home dogs in Week 3 are 10-4 ATS over the last five seasons.
|09-26-21||Bengals +3 v. Steelers||Top||24-10||Win||100||1 h 2 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021
4% Best bet on the Bengals plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
Steelers head coach Tomlin is just 20-38 ATS off of or 2 or more UNDER game results. The Bengals are 62-31 using the money line making 35 units-per-unit bet when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards over the last 30 seasons. In Cincinnati's 20-17 loss to Chicago, the Bengals committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a lost fumble. Cincinnati went the entire 2020 season without committing four or more turnovers in a single game. Note that teams that are coming off a game with 4 or 5 turnovers and now facing an opponent that they previously defeated are 18-12 for 60% ATS over the last three seasons and when installed as a dog, has earned a 10-4 ATS mark for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|09-26-21||Bears v. Browns OVER 44.5||Top||6-26||Loss||-110||1 h 0 m||Show|
Chicago vs Cleveland
1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021
8-UNIT Best bet on the OVER
Betting on the OVER with any team, like Cleveland, who is coming off a win in which they did not cover the spread and now facing an opponent, who is coming off a home win has earned a highly profitable 44-9 OVER record good for 83% winning bets over the past five seasons. 27 of the 44 winning bets went over the total by a minimum of 7 points.
From the predictive models, Cleveland is expected to gain at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games in which Cleveland gained 6 or more YPPL, the OVER has 10-1 for 91% winning bets over the last three seasons. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in games in which the Chicago defense allowed 6 or more YPPL over the last three seasons.
|09-25-21||Colorado State +23.5 v. Iowa||Top||14-24||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
Colorado State vs Iowa
10-UNIT Best Bet on Colorado State
CSU is coming off a double digit road win and are 25-11 ATS in the next game. CSU head coach Addazio is 14-3 ATS in road games facing a non-conference foe and 17-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. He is also 12-4 ATS as a road dog facing a winning record program.
Is Iowa the 5th best team in the nation and are they better than 6th-ranked Penn State? My answer is positively not! Iowa and Colorado State are meeting for the first time ever. Iowa beat Kent State at home last week, 30-7. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS. The last time Iowa had a longer streak was 11 games between 1959 and 1960. Colorado State earned its first win of the season last week at Toledo, 22-6. You may remember I had Toledo +17-point underdog, who had Notre Dame on the ropes before losing by just 2-points. The Rams did not allow a touchdown in their win over Toledo, which was the first time since 2016 against Fresno State.
Trey McBride leads the Rams in receptions (30) and receiving yards (339). McBride has been responsible for 46.9 percent of the Rams' receptions this season. I believe you will see a much more balanced offensive attack from the Rams because Iowa is going to bracket McBride in underneath and over the top routes.
|09-19-21||Cowboys v. Chargers -3||Top||20-17||Loss||-106||8 h 41 m||Show|
Dallas vs LA Chargers
4:25 PM EST, September 19, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Chargers
I have never given out a 10-unit play and my 5% and 5-UNIT best bets have always been my top-rated strongest best bets for more than a decade.
The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. However, that is more than offset by the loss of tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense that is extremely weak in the back end going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys will not pass this test this afternoon.
Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys' Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a significantly bruised shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense and the same role be repeated in this matchup.
Dallas is 4-14 ATS off a game in which their QB had 50 passing attempts.
From the predictive side of things, the Chargers are expected to score 27 or more points, force Dallas to have 2 or more turnovers, and have an edge in time-of-possession. In past Charger games over the last 10 season, they are 10-1 ATS over the last 7 seasons!
|09-19-21||49ers -3 v. Eagles||Top||17-11||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST Sunday, September 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points
A matchup that the 49ers have had time to prepare for is the Eagkes defensive front, specificallt Fletcher Cox and Hargrave, who has been underrated fo the past several seasons. Last week Hargrave showed that he is one of the best interior pass rushers winning 48% of all rushes on the QB including double teams. The 49er OL allowed just one pressure last week so, 49ers will be prepared to minimize their impact.
Betting on road teams that are facing a host who allowed 24 or more PPG last season and is coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points has earned a 32-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 NFL seasons. Over the last 10 season, this angle has earned a 14-4 ATS record for 78% winning bets.
From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are expected to score at least 28 points. NFL road teams since 2017 that have scored 28 or more points are a solid 124-39 ATS and the 49ers in this role are 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets.
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins +3.5||Top||35-0||Loss||-103||5 h 44 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Miami
4% Best Bet on Miami getting the points
I like the idea of adding a sprinkle, no more than 1.0 units, on the money line.
Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions with 10 thefts last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright and that will be a very tough assignment against the Dolphins defensive front seven.
Bet on home teams off of a win over a divisional foe and in a matchup of two teams that had winning records last season has earned a 42-12-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 9-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
|09-19-21||Rams v. Colts +4||Top||27-24||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST, September 19, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colts and take the points
Betting on underdogs that were solid passing teams last season averaging 250 or more PYPG and are coming off a game where they defense was diced up for more than 7 yards per pass attempt has earned a 30-5 ATS 86% record over the last 10 seasons.
From the predictive models, the Colts are expected to score 28 or more points and have at least 125 rushing yards. NFL teams that have met or exceeded these performance measures has earned a 310-56 ATS record over the last five seasons and the Colts dressed in this role are 9-1 ATS.
|09-18-21||Auburn v. Penn State -5||Top||20-28||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
Auburn vs Penn State
7:30 PM EST, September 18, 2021
5% Top-Rated Best Bet on Penn State minus the points
ESPN College Game Day is on the Happy Valley Campus and Auburn will be playing in by far the largest stadium (111K) in program history. Making it an even greater home field advantage is the fact that this is a Penn State White Out game, which everyone of the 111K fans will be wearing white. There be an almost invisible sliver in the third deck of Auburn fans. My WagerTalk colleague Ralph Michaels makes PSU the greatest home field advantage giving them 6.5 points in Prime Time Night Games.
SEC teams installed as 7 or fewer-point points are a money-losing 9-18 ATS for 33% wins facing a Big Ten foe. The Lions are roaring and is a team that is only going to get better as the season goes on. James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he was hired by PSU and knows the SEC conference first-hand. While at Vanderbilt, he went 8-3-1 ATS in home games including a defeat of Auburn. The best fact of all is that Franklin despite all of the negative media attention on him and hi program last season is on a 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS run coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. He is also 40-16 ATS off a win and 14-3 ATS off a game scoring 37 or more points.
From the predictive side of things, my machine learning models show a very high probability that PSU will score 31 or more points and will gain 450 or more offensive yards. PSU in home games, scoring 28 or more yards and gaining 450 or more total yards is 25-4 ATS for 86.2% ATS wins.
|09-16-21||Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -19||Top||14-49||Win||100||4 h 28 m||Show|
Ohio University vs Louisiana Lafayette
Thursday, 9/16/2021 9:45 PM
4% Best Bet on LL Rajin Cajuns minus the points
Betting on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that is a team allowing 28 to 34 PPG and hosting a guest that is averaging 16 to 21 PPG has earned a 30-8 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.
|09-13-21||Ravens -3.5 v. Raiders||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||6 h 32 m||Show|
Baltimore vs Las Vegas
Week 1 8:15 PM EST, Monday, September 13, 2021
4% best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points
A few quick-hitters. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a solid 23-11 ATS in games with a total of 46 or more points. He is 18-7 ATS in the first two weeks of the regular season.
From the predictive models, Baltimore is expected to gain well over 125 rushing yards and would not be at all surprised if they gained over 200 tonight. Baltimore is 86-27-1 ATS in games gaining at least 125 rushing yards. They are 9-1 ATS over the last three seasons in games they averaged 5.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. Las Vegas is 0-7 ATS over the last three seasons in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards.
Bet Baltimore for a 4-Unit Best Bet
|09-12-21||Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||14-34||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
Chicago vs LA Rams
8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 12, 2021
10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total
I will make this short and sweet. The predictive models and applications expect the Rams to gain 380 or more yards and produce a 12.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio. The OVER is 12-4 spanning the last five seasons when the Rams have had a YPPT ratio of 12.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 for 80% when the Bears defense has allowed an opponent a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio. Home teams that have had a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio and gained 380 or more total yards are 91-15-1 OVER for 86% winning bets over the last five seasons and covered the total by an average of 15 points!
Bet the OVER for a 10-UNIT Best Bet
|09-05-21||Notre Dame v. Florida State +7||Top||41-38||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs Florida State
7:30 PM EST, Sunday, September 5, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet Florida State plus the points
FSU head coach Mike Norvell has 10 returning starters on offense including the QB red shirt sophomore transfer Jordan Travis. He will have plenty of targets this season including graduate transfer Andrew Parchman, who spent the last two years in Kansas. He made 20 starts for Kansas tallying 1,028 receiving yards on 89 catches and 9 TDs. Look for him to make key catches in this game, especially on 2nd and 3rd downs to keep the chains moving.
Ironically, Guard Dillon Gibbons transferred from Notre Dame and you can bet this 6-5 321 lb lineman will want to to show what his former team could have had. Overall, the FSU L is much better than last year’s edition because they have played together in at least one seasons and have solid chemistry across the line too.
Betting on under dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first four weeks of the season that return at least 8 starters including the QB and had struggles on defense allowing 425 or more YPG in the previous season has earned a highly profitable 59-24-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 21-7-1 for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 using the money line, whose defense struggled last season allowing 5.8 or more yards-per-play and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning this season has earned an amazing 28-20 SU record, averaging a +210 money line bet and making the $100 bettor a $3,950 profit over the last 10 seasons. Over the last three seasons this angle has produced a 9-8 record, BUT has made $1500 for the $100 bettor.
Bet FSU plus the points as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|09-02-21||Boise State +5.5 v. Central Florida||Top||31-36||Win||100||38 h 7 m||Show|
Boise State vs UCF
Week 1 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, September 2 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on Boise State plus the points
On the gridiron, I like to bet these underdogs as a combination bet that consists of 80 to 90% of your normal bet size placed on the line and the remaining 10-20% bet using the money line. So, for this game and if you are $100 bettor for a 4-Unit bet, place $85.00 on the line and $15.00 using the money line. Remember though, this is a recommended strategy, and you always have the option to simply bet the game getting the points.
This is going to be a great game to watch that will have several scoring runs by both teams, who have first-year head coaches. UCF has former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, who inherits a terrific offense that averaged 568 yards and 42 PPG. New head BSU head coach is Andy Avalos, who was the defensive coordinator for Oregon and has nine defensive returning starters on one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference.
Hank Bachmeier was named the starting QB last week and is a 3-year junior signal caller that is vastly underrated. He has been injured in past seasons preventing him from taking his game to those next levels. He has played in only 13-games over the past two seasons. In his first start of his college career he threw for 407 yards in a win against Florida State on August 31, 2019. He has had 6-games completing over 65% of his passes and three of those were over 70%. His favorite target, senior Khalil Shakir, has caught 131 balls for 1,761 yards, and 13 TDs. Bachmeier will have far more weapons this season in WR-X Stefan Cobbs, WR-H CT Thomas, and junior transfer Davis Koetter.
UCF is just 4-13 ATS in games played over the last three seasons with a total of 65 or more points. From the predictive models there is a very high probability that BSU will score 28 or more points. In past games in which they have scored 28 or more points, they are 10-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 70% ATS over the last 30 seasons spanning 210 games.
Bet Boise State as a 4-Unit Best Bet
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||Top||9-31||Win||100||23 h 17 m||Show|
Super Bowl LV
6:30 PM EST, February 6, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 points and a little sprinkle on the money line too.
The KC offense is one of the best anyone has seen in at least the last decade, but when you break down the game film, they are a two dimensional one. They have TE Kelce and WR Hill and they complement one another perfectly. If a defense looks to take away the post routes to Hill, then Mahomes will throw underneath to Kelce and vice-versa. The Bucs defense, especially the linebackers are some of the best and quickest in the NFL. That unit will make things far more difficult for Mahomes in this matchup.
BUCS DEFENSE VS CHIEFS DEFENSE
By comparison, the Chiefs defense is somewhat pedestrian and ranks in the middle third of many defensive performance measures. They rank ninth with a 35.7% blitz percentage but going up against the best offensive line in the NFL that is 100% healthy too. KC defense ranks 15th with 55 QB hurries and 19th with just 32 sacks on the season. Plus, the Tampa Bay OL has allowed a sack on just 3.3% of all plays during the regular season. Offensively, these two teams are near equaled overall, but the largest difference is that the Bucs defense is vastly better than the Chiefs.
Where the Chiefs defense will be most vulnerable is on second downs. The Bucs run the ball a high percentage of the time on first downs and getting three to five yards then sets up the play-action pass play. Brady is one of the all-time greats with the fake to the running back that freezes even the best All-Pro linebackers. For the season, he has thrown 110 passes for 1,119 passing yards out of the play-action set. Brady through over the top with great success against New Orleans and Green Bay and it will be highly effective in this matchup too.
The Chiefs defense ranks 20th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards-per-play, which also matches the league average.
The Bucs are 8-1 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 5.65 or more yards-per-play on the season. The Chiefs rank 6th gaining 6.3 yards-per-play this season, but the
Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS facing excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 or more yards-per-play this season.
The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in games played with a total ranging between 40 and 49.5 points this season.
A HIGHLY PROFITABLE BETTING SYSTEM
FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING APPLICATIONS
MY SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
Bet the Bucs -10.5 points +650
|01-24-21||Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51||Top||31-26||Loss||-101||77 h 20 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
Brady passed for 189 yards in last week’s road win over the Saints. In playoff games he is 28-18 UNDER for 61% winning bets following a playoff game in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards.
Now, combine the UNDER with the BUCS using the money line to bet a parlay and also consider a reverse action parlay.
|01-24-21||Bucs +3.5 v. Packers||Top||31-26||Win||100||77 h 19 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021
The line for this NFC Championship game opened with Green Bay priced as a 3-point home favorite and the public bettor has been largely attracted to bet Green Bay accounting for 71% of the best made as of Wednesday. I fully expect this trend to continue, but the line may not move above 3.5 unless there is new news. I am planning on waiting till Friday to place 50% of my 5% bet size Friday at the market price and then prepare to add 25% more about an hour before game time. The remaining 25% will be used for in-game live betting at a price of +7.5-points. I will be tweeting LIVE in-game bets so make certain you are following me.
Betting on road teams after week 8 including the playoffs, that make few mistakes averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game (TPG) and have posted four consecutive games committing no more than a single turnover in each game, and now facing an opponent that is also takes great of the football averaging 1.25 TPG has earned a 36-25 SU record and a 37-22-2 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
The following results is a subset variation of the previous system and requires us to bet on road teams in game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer TPG and with the host coming off a game in which their defense did not face a turnover. This subset has earned a 41-28 record and 47-20-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 4-2 SU and a perfect 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8.6 points.
My opponent-adjusted power ratings have the Packers as the best team in the NFL, Tampa Bay second, then the Buffalo Bills at 4th, and the Chiefs a distant ninth. So, placing a futures bet on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl and a matchup bet that the Bills and Bucs will be the Super Bowl teams is a great opportunity.
The Bucs have a significant advantage running the ball against the Packers defensive line. The single-most powerful situation for Brady over his entire career has been using play-action pass and having an extra two seconds or more to scan the field and complete high-percentage routes in space. Once the Bucs force the Packers to bring a safety up to the line-of-scrimmage the play-action pass will highly effective and the dominant reason the Bucs win and advance to the Super Bowl.
From the machine learning applications we learn that the Bucs are 14-7 SU and 15-5-1 ATS for 75% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when scoring 24 or more points and averaging at least 6.3 yards-per-play.
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||Top||30-20||Win||100||4 h 20 m||Show|
TAMPA BAY VS NEW ORLEANS
This is the third time that these divisional rivals will face each other this season. The road teams are 10-11 SU, and 15-8 ATS for 62% winning bets in the NFL playoffs. In the Wild Card Round last week, the Browns and Rams were in this role and both won SU against their divisional rivals. Teams meeting for the third time that have a higher yards-per-play ratio than the opponent are 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS for 62% winning bets. The Bucs have averaged 6.0 YPPL ranking 7th-best in the NFL and the Saints have avered 5.8 YPPL ranking 11th-best in the NFL.
Betting on road teams in a game in which they and their host are averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers-per-game and with the host coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 44-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the last five regular and playoff seasons.
The Saints under head coach Sean Payton are 0-6 ATS in home regular season and playoff games spanning the last three seasons. Drilling a bit deeper, Sean Payton in home playoff games facing an opponent with a winning record is 6-2 SU, BUT 2-6 ATS.
From the machine learning applications, the Bucs are projected to score 27 or more points and average a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass attempt. In past playoff games, road teams that have met or exceeded this par of measures have earned an incredible 25-7 SU record and a 28-2-2 ATS record good for 93% winning bets and that covered the spread by an average of 11.8 points. Road teams during the regular and playoff seasons that are playing with double-revenge, scoring 27 or more points, and averaging 7 or more YPPA, have earned an 85-27 SU record and 98-9-5 ATS record goods for 92% winning bets.
|01-11-21||Ohio State +9 v. Alabama||Top||24-52||Loss||-107||8 h 53 m||Show|
Ohio State vs Alabama
8:00 PM EST, January 11, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes +8 points.
The current lines for this game price the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8-point underdogs with a total of 75.5 points. The action has seen greater number of tickets and money being bet on Alabama moving the line from its’ opening of 7-points. The UNDER has been the preferred bet and has lowered the total from its’ opening of 76.5 points
The line and total indicate and implied 41.75 - 33.75 Alabama win. The 28-point scoring level is an extremely important benchmark that defines many NCAAF teams ATS success or failure. Overall, teams playing on a neutral field and score 28 or more points have earned a 457-162 SU record for 74% wins and 421-187-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past ten seasons.
Ohio State has earned a 10-1 SU record and 7-4 ATS mark when scoring 28 or more points in a neutral field setting. Regardless of location, Ohio State has earned an incredible 99-2 SU mark and 59-40-2 ATS for 69% winning bets spanning the past ten seasons.
This Championship game implies that both teams will score 28 or more points and my machine learning tools support this in a big way. Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing in a neutral field setting and in game where both they and their opponent score 28 or more points. Alabama has been horrible money-losing bets when in games where they and their opponent both score 28 or more points with an 5-3 SU record and an imperfect 0-8 ATS record that has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10-points.
Betting on neutral field underdogs that are averaging a minimum of 4.75 YPC on the season and coming off three consecutive games rushing the ball for at least 225 yards in each game has earned a highly profitable 38-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets in games played over the past 15 seasons. Obviously, this to supports Ohio State.
Nick Saban is a great coach, but there are a few situations in which he has not done well. Since becoming the head coach of Alabama he is 11-22 ATS for 33% winning bets when facing a team that is averaging 235 or more RYPG, and 1-6 ATS for 14% when the game is played on a neutral field.
How to Bet This Game.
My recommendation for this 5% Best Bet is to take Ohio State using the spread for an 80% amount of your 5% Amount. Then place 20% pre-flop (before the game) using the juicy money line. I am going to add 10% amounts in-game if Ohio State is lined at +11.5, and +14.5 points. If the +14.5 its live bet is confirmed then, I will immediately add 10% amount on the money line.
Given the very high TOTAL, this game will have both teams ripping off 10 to 21 unanswered points. So, let the game volatility work with you and take advantage of these contrarian opportunities. Good Luck and Thank you for all the loyal support.
|01-10-21||Ravens -3.5 v. Titans||Top||20-13||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens Vs Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
1:05 PM EST January 10, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Baltimore Ravens
Here are a few quick hitters: Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in road games facing a solid passing team that has completed 62% of their pass attempts on the season in games played over the last three seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in road games facing a solid offense gaining a minimum of 7.0 yards-per-pass in games played over the last three seasons.
Baltimore’s season hit rock bottom in a Week 12, 19-14 loss at Division rival Pittsburgh and from there on out to the end of the regular season Baltimore has made improvements in each week. They are peaking at exactly the right time coming off 38-3 win at Cincinnati in which they posted many season-highs across the offensive efficiency metrics.
The Titans gained the most passing yards (1541) and ranked third in the NFL running a total of 174 play action pass plays. They have an outstanding ground attack led by Henry and the Ravens will look to confuse the gap blocking reads of the Titans offensive line with late pre-snap personnel movements. The Ravens have increased these adjustments whenever the play clock is under 10 seconds. The Ravens blitz a league-low 115 times because they were getting enough pressures and QB hits rushing just four linemen. The Ravens do not need to bring a safety to reinforce the run-defense and in turn makes play action nearly useless for the Titans. The Titans may counter this advantage for the Ravens by placing Tannehill in the shot-gun.
Playoff teams like the favorable situation the Ravens are in, that are on a 6 or more game ATS win streak with 11 or more wins and in playoff games are 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.
|01-09-21||Colts +6.5 v. Bills||Top||24-27||Win||100||44 h 19 m||Show|
NFL 2020-21 Wild Card Playoff Round
Bill Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
1:05 PM EST, January 9th, 2021
5% Best Bet on the Indianapolis Colts +6.5-points and sprinkle a bit extra on the money line.
Some of you may like the Colts to win the Super Bowl, and if you do, I have a strong recommendation for you. The current futures line is 35:1 that the Colts win the Super Bowl. However, you will make more money if you bet the Colts using the money line in each game alog the way tow a potential Championship. So, I suggest playing this game with 75% on the line and then 30% using the money line. If you do like the Colts to go all the way, the bet a 25% amount of your 4% wager using the futures line, and then 30% using the money line in each game moving forward.
Future Hall-of-Famer and 17-year veteran Philip Rivers adopted quickly and quit ewell to Colts head coach Frank Reich’s offensive scheme and proved that last seasons’ 19 interceptions thrown was an outlier. Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles Championship run in 2017. He looks like a genious now, having left for this position, the day after the Eagles Super Bowl win. Rivers’ and Reich’s playoff experience is a monumental advantage in this matchup against a Bills franchise playing in their first playoff as a favorite since the losss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 8.5-point favorites in 1996.
The ket matchup for the Colts odffense is between Rivers and the Buffalo secondary featuring cornerback Tre’Davious White. For the majority of the regular season, the Colts knick was that they did have a ground attack strong enough to be respected by opponents defense units. Not the case now as the Colts averaged 124.8 rushing yards per game for the season and a monster 175.6 RYPG over their last three games that was good enough to rank third-best in the NFL. So, the Colts will be successful on the ground and force the Bills to bring a safety to the line-of scrimmage. When Rivers sees this scheme, he will look to use play-action and use seem and post routes knowing his receivers will be in man-coverage.
The Colts defense was quite good throughout the 2020 season and the Bills will struggle to run the ball. Although the Bills with Josh Allen are a pass-happy unit, forcing him to throw more than he is used to, will make ti very tough to move the chains into scoring opportunities.
HC Reich is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games having won two of the last three games.
Reich is 16-5 ATS facing solid offensive units that average 350 or more total yards-per-game.
My machine learning tools reveal that the Colts are a highly profitable 15-8 SU and 18-6-1 ATS in road games holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushingn yards and gaining a total of 300 or more total yards in games played over the last ten seasons. Under the same projections, the Bills are just 4-12 SU and ATS in home games over the last ten seasons. Home playoff teams that fail to gain 100 rushing yards and allow 300 or more total yards are 14-13 SU, BUT a money-losing 7-19-1 ATS in playoff games played over the last ten seasons.
|01-02-21||North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7||Top||27-41||Win||100||36 h 38 m||Show|
North Carolina vs Texas A&M
5% Best Bet on Texas A&M -7
Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
This is a game that I believe Texas A&M will win by at least 11 points. Do NOT make anything of the fact that Texas A&M thinks they should have been the 4th seed in the CFO and that they are going to go out in this game to prove a point. Jimbo Fisher has coached mamny games and has been part of Florida State’s National Championship.
So, I did extemsive research factoring all of the opt-out players and UNC has lost the most starting talent by a landslide and that adds even more confidence to the Machine Learning model predictions.
Betting on any team in a game involving two excellent rushing teams gaining at least 4.75 YPRA and with one of the teams coming off a game allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game has earned a 35-9 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.
The machine learning tools I use and have developed predict a near-90% probability that A&M will score 35 or more points. A&M is 121-64-6 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played since 2000 and under head coach Jimbo Fisher, they are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.
|12-31-20||Mississippi State +1 v. Tulsa||Top||28-26||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
Armed Forces Bowl
4% Best Bet on Mississippi State +2.5 points.
Mike Leach took over the head coaching responsibilities this season at Miss State and won his first game against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. We learned quickly that LSU was nowhere close to being the same team last season and Miss State sputtered and lost 7 of their next 8 games, before ending the season on a high note with a win over Missouri. All season, Miss State struggled to run the ball enough for opposing defenses to respect. However, they gained a season-high 154 rushing yards in the win over Missouri.
Since 2000, he has been a head coach in every season except 2010 and 2011. This marks the 17th Bowl game in 18 years as a head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State, and now Miss State.
Betting on teams with a line within three points on either side of pick-em with a team that is coming off a game where they outgained that opponent b 125 or more total yards and are now facing a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned an impressive 114-61-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last ten seasons.
|12-30-20||Florida +7 v. Oklahoma||Top||20-55||Loss||-110||8 h 44 m||Show|
Florida vs Oklahoma
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
8:00 PM EST, December 30, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Florida Gators +7 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.
I would highly recommend placing 70% of your normal 4% bet size on Florida prior to the start of the game. This game promises to have team scoring streaks that we can then exploit to our advantage. Starting with Florida as a 4.5-point underdog right now, add 15% of your 4% bet size in-game with a line of +8 or higher, and then the last 15% amount on Florida at +11.5 points.
Florida is without their top-4 WR, who have opted out, but why then is the line not heading towards making Oklahoma a -11 or more-point favorite? It is simply because Florida has a stable of elite WR and no other team in the country recruits WR better than Florida has over the years.
Using the money, betting on neutral field teams that have beaten the spread by 21 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 26-21 straight-up record, but has made over $4,100 for the $100 bettor spanning the last 10 seasons of games.
Also, playing on playoff and bowl game underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them, but more than 60% of the money have earned an outstanding 107-40 record for 73% ATS winning bets since 2011.
|12-26-20||49ers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||20-12||Win||100||4 h 34 m||Show|
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
4:30 PM EST, December 26, 2020.
4% Best bet on the San Francisco 49ers +6 points and sprinkle a little on the money line.
CJ Beathard is starting for the 49ers and this is his audition to make an impression prior to him becoming a free agent in two weeks. I strongly believe he will play well and has the potential to win the game outright.
Here is an excellent betting system that has earned a solid 48-20-4 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to play on road dogs facing a host that have a miserable turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game in games played since the start of the 2016 season.
The machine learning tools project that the 49ers will score a minimum of 24 points and gain at least 4.0 yards-per-rush. In past road games in which the 49ers met these performance measures has earned them a 55-17-2 ATS record good for 76% winning bets since 2016.
|12-25-20||Vikings v. Saints -6.5||Top||33-52||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
4:30 PM EST, Christmas Day
4% Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints.
Let’s start with an outstanding betting system that has earned a 37-7 ATS record good for 84% winning bets in games played over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on offensive teams gaining between 5.4 and 5.8 yards-per-play on the season, are coming off a game getting outgained by a minimum of 100 total yards, and are not facing a struggling defense allowing 5.8 or more YPPL on the season.
Minnesota is giving up 27.7 points-per-game and New Orleans is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing struggling defenses allowing 27 or more PPG on the season in games played over the last three seasons.
From the machine learning tools, the Saints are 39-17-1 ATS when the have gained 6.5 or more YPPL in home games since 2000.
|12-25-20||Marshall +6.5 v. Buffalo||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||4 h 46 m||Show|
Marshall vs Buffalo
Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
5% Best Bet on Marshall +5.5 points.
1% Parlay Sprinkle Marshall using the Money Line and the UNDER.
I’ll get right to the powerful and highly profitable betting system that supports the Marshall Thundering Herd. In a Bowl Game, bet against a favorite that lost their conference championship game by eight or more points. This situation has seen the false favorite post a miserable 13-18 SU record and a 9-22 ATS record for 29%, and the UNDER earning a solid 21-10 record good for 68% winning bets in bowl games played since 2005.
Drilling down through this dataset by querying only Bowl Games played in December produces a highly profitable 5-12 SU record, 1-16 ATS record for 6%, and the UNDER winning the cash on a 13-4 record for 77% winning bets since 2005.
The market has priced in the loss of Marshall’s star running back Brenden Know, who left the team. Marshall has many running backs that will be eager to step up to take advantage of the extra game time and include junior Sheldon Evans and sophomore Knowledge McDaniels. Freshman QB Wells is a running threat in his own right and completed 61% of his passes for 1,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, , 9 interceptions, and a 144 QBR.
This money line bettig system has earned a 23-19 record for 55% winning bets, making the $100 bettor, a sizable profit of $4,350 in games bet over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line and are coming off three games in which they were beaten by 21 or more points versus the spread. The average money line bet has been +273.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
4% Best Bet on the Cincinnati Bengals +14 points.
I also like teasing the Bengals up to +21 and the ‘UNDER’ up to 47.5 points.
Home Dogs of 8.5 to 15.5 points that have won less than 23% of their games in the current season, in weeks 8 thorugh 17 of the regular season, and facing a conference foe have earned a 42-23-1 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 1990.
Dogs on Monday Nights that have also been dogs in their previous three games has seen the ‘UNDER’ go 18-3 since the start of the 2015 season.
Pittsburgh has topped 50 yards rushing just twice over its past seven games, allowing defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Steelers' short passing game. Plus, Tomlin is just 3-8 ATS for 27% dressed as a double-digit road favorite.
|12-20-20||Eagles v. Cardinals -6||Top||26-33||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
Arizona vs Philadelphia
4% Best Bet on Arizona minus the points.
From the machine learning model and tools, Arizona is projected to gain 150 or more rushing yards and average 5.8 yards-per-play. Since 2011, when the Cardinals met or exceeded these measures, has led them to a 14-2 SU record and a 13-3 ATS record good for 81% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10 points.
The Eagles are a money-burning 4-17 SU and ATS in games played in which they allowed 150 or more rushing yards and allowed an average of 5.8 yards-per-play over the last ten seasons.
Eagles head coach Pederson is 5-13 ATS in games played on turf.
|12-19-20||Alabama v. Florida +17.5||Top||52-46||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
Alabama vs Florida
8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020
5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price.
I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line.
This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games.
From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL.
Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000.
|12-19-20||Illinois v. Penn State -15||Top||21-56||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
Illinois vs Penn State
This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.
From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.
|12-19-20||Air Force v. Army +2.5||Top||7-10||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
Air Force vs Army
4% Best Bet on Army and sprinkle soe on the money line. I like making these live dogs combination wagers using the line and the money line. I am wagerig 70% of my 4% bet amount plus the points and then 30% using the money line.
Here is one of the best money line bettig systems you will ever see and has earned a 24-5 SU record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a non-conference foe, who is coming off two straight wins over conference foes.
Air Force is just 34-42 against the money line (-50.9 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging a minimum of 4.75 rushing yards-per-carry.
I also like Army using the first-half money lie as they are projected to have the lead at the half. Army is 20-3 SU when gaining 250 or rushing yards in home games and have lead at the half.
|12-19-20||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6||Top||27-21||Push||0||3 h 36 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs Iowa State
4% Best Bet on Iowa State +
I also like making this a combination wager consisting of 70% amount of a 4% amount using the line and a 30% of a 4% amount bet using the money line.
Iowa State is active in a very strong betting system that has earned a 46-17 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that s a good rushing team gaining 190 to 230 rushing yards after playing seven or more games, and after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game and now facing a team that is averaging 140 to 180 rushing yards-per-game.
The machine learning model and tools project that ISU will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and average a minimum of at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games where they met these standards, they have earned a 25-9-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2011. Plus, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when installed as a dog.
|12-18-20||UAB +4.5 v. Marshall||Top||22-13||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
UAB vs Marshall
4% Best bet on the UAB Blazers
UAB has posted terrific re zone numbers scoring 23 TDs and 7 FGs on 32 red zone attempts. Only two times did they not score points in the red zone. They have played two games over the last six weeks, but they are led by Senior QB Tyler Johnston III, So, his experience is major advantage for the entire team.
UAB is 35-11 ATS after a two-gae road trip. UAB head coach is 32-18-1 ATS when playing a game on a turf field. Marshall HC Holliday is just 9-18 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and 1-8 ATS coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points in the first half.
Home teams, who suffered their first loss of the season after game number 6 has been played and are facing a team that lost to them in their previous matchup has earned a money-burning 26-47 ATS record good for 35% winning bets since 2008.
Betting on road underdogs after the first four weeks of the season, who are facing a host that was beaten by 28 or more points versus the spread over the last ten seasons has earned a 60-26-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. So, UAB is the road underdog and Marshall lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite to Rice in their last game.
Bet UAB as a 4% Best bet +4.5 points and sprinkle some on the money line.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Let us start with a highly profitable betting system that has earned an outstanding 47-24 ATS for 68% winning bets and 51-18-2 UNDER. Play against home teams that are allowing 25 or more PPG and have allowed 25 or more points in 3 straight games.
Here is a second betting system that supports the Chargers and underscores how poorly the Raiders have taken care of the ball this season. This system has earned a 72-39 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to bet on any team after committing no more than one turnover and is facing an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin in their previous game.
Teams that have 4 or more wins than their divisional opponent and are a home favorite of not more than 4 points are a terrible 13-21-1 ATS for 38.2% winning bets since 2006.
The machine learning tools project that the Chargers will score 24 or more points and force the Raiders into a minimum of two turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these measures, have seen them go on to earn a 26-2 SU record and 24-4 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets that covered by an average of 10.2 points.
|12-14-20||Ravens -3 v. Browns||Top||47-42||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
First Energy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
4% Baltimore Ravens – 3.0 points
The two best running teams collide tonight in Cleveland, Ohio, but it will be the passing game that will dictate the winner of this game. Both quarterbacks overall have graded at about the same levels. However, Mayfield has a 116 QB rating when passing the ball in a clean pocket and a horrid 32 QBR when pressured. With a clean pocket, Jackson has earned a 98 QBR and when pressured an excellent 82.4 QBR. Jackson has been sacked 24 times, with 7 deflected balls, 16 drops, 8 throwaways, and 36 scramble plays. Mayfield has been sacked 17 times, five deflected passes, 19 drops, 24 throwaways, and 14 scrambles.
Mayfield and his offense will not be facing one of the best defenses, who lead the NFL with 211 blitz plays or 42% of all defensive calls on the season. Seattle is second in the NFL with 202 blitzes accounting for 33.7% of the plays and Seattle has a game in hand. Browns' offensive line ranks first in the NFL giving Mayfield an average of 2.8 seconds of pocket time, but you will see the Ravens reduce that pocket time by at least a full second. So, the Ravens are by far the most aggressive blitz-happy team in the NFL and this is going to make it extraordinary rough for Mayfield to complete passes.
Jackson will face a solid Browns defense that blitzes 22% of all plays ranking 21st in the NFL and will have time to go through the play progressions and complete passes.
This betting system has earned a highly profitable 41-18 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2010 and requires us to bet on teams with a line within 3-points on either side of pick-em in a conference matchup where the team scored 25 or more points in back-to-back games and is facing an opponent off a game in which a total of 50 or more points were scored.
Coach Harbaugh is 13-3 after Week 8 in road games against teams that are allowing 24 or more PPG.
|12-10-20||Patriots +4.5 v. Rams||Top||3-24||Loss||-107||8 h 57 m||Show|
New England vs LA Rams
4% Best Bet on the Patriots +5 points and I like sprinkling a little extra on the money line.
Bill Belichick, once again showed the NFL world why he is the G.O.A.T head coaches in the45-0 blowout and shutout of the LA Chargers last week. Note, that he is 5-1 SU + ATS installed as a dog and coming off a shutout win in his head coaching career. For the first time since the 2008 season, Belichick finds his team with 6 or fewer wins entering Week 13 or beyond. He is 10-5 ATS in this situation as the HC of the Patriots and 10-8 ATS as the HC of the Browns dating back to 1991. As the Patriots HC, he is 7-2 ATS when his teams have had 6 or fewer wins and the game was in Week 14 or beyond.
This is a matchup of two solid defenses matched up against two average offenses that have shown signs of their full potential at different times this season. Patriots defense ranks 7th in scoring defense allowqing 21.2 PPG and 23rd in scoring offense averaging 22.8 PPG. Rams rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 20.2 PPG and 17th in scoring offense averaging 25.1 PPG.
The rankings compare similarly with the yards-per-point, points-per-play, and yards-per-play ratios. So, in a game that the implied betting lines of Rams favored by 5 and a 44-point total indicate a 24.5-19.5 Rams victory, with both teams not scoring more than 24 points, I’ll take the defensive genius of Belichick.
The machine learning tools indicate that the Patriots will have more rushing attempts than passing attempts and will gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, under Belichick, and when they met these performance standards, the Patriots have earned an 86-3 SU record and 78-11 ATS record good for 88% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 12 points. If the game in question was on the road, the Patriost are 36-3 SU and 37-2 ASTS for 95% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.
Take the New England Patriots +4.5 or +5 if you can get it and sprinkle a little money line magic too.
|12-06-20||Broncos +13.5 v. Chiefs||Top||16-22||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
Denver vs Kansas City
There are many team situational trends working against Kansas City starting with the fact they are 0-7 ATS following a game in which they gained a minimum of 450 total yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 5-18 ATS following three consecutive games gaining 380 or more yards in each of the three games in games played over the last three seasons. Head coach Andy Reid is 0-12 ATS in home games going off a win, but failing to cover the spread as a favorite in all games of his career; 0-7 ATS as the HC of the Philadelphia Eagles and 0-5 ATS with the Chiefs.
Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a perfect 6-0 ATS following a loss of 14 or more points.
Here is a money line betting system that supports the possible and shocking upset win. Bet on road teams using the money line that has a defense allowing an average of 330 to 375 yards-per-game and is facing a host who is averaging a minimum of 370 total yards-per-game and is coming off a game where their defense allowed 400 or more total yards. This money line system has earned a 20-10 record SU for 67% and has made the $100 bettor a whopping $2,750 over the last five seasons.
Bet the Denver Broncos as a 4% Best Bet and don’t forget the small sprinkle using the juicy money line. Also, My free pick video is on the Jets today and I plan on a small parlay using the monmey lines for both Jets and Broncos. You never know.
|12-06-20||Browns v. Titans -4||Top||41-35||Loss||-100||2 h 32 m||Show|
Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans
4% Best Bet on the Tennessee Titans minus the points.
The Browns have an 8-3 record, but have just one win over a team that currently has a winning record, and four wins against the lowly NFC East teams. Both teams have great ground attack and defenses that plays to their strengths and makes few mistakes.
The Titans rank second-best in the NFL averaging 158.2 RYPG on the season and the Browns are best averaging 161 RYPG. The Browns are 3-8 ATS in road games facing an opponent that is averaging 140 RYPG and 4-10 ATS regardless of site location facing a foe averaging 140 or more RYPG.
This betting systems works against the Browns and has earned a 29-14-4 ATYS record good for 6% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet against teams that are averaging 180 to 230 passing yards-per-game and coming off a game in which they averaged a minimum of 7.2 yards-per-pass attempt, and facing a team that is allowing an average of at least 240 passing yards on the season.
The machine learning tools project that the Titans will gain at least 125 rushing yards and score a minimum of 24 points. Under head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points when meeting or exceeded that pair of performance measures.
|12-05-20||Miami-FL -14 v. Duke||Top||48-0||Win||100||12 h 9 m||Show|
Miami (Fla) vs Duke
3% ACC Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes
The summary projections from my machine learning toolshed indicate a high probability that the Hurricanes will win this game by 24 or more points.
The following college football betting system has earned a remarkable 76-35-2 ATS record for 69% winning plays since 2006 and requires us to bet on road teams play their second, third, or fourth consecutive road game and are favored by 14 or more points and facing an opponent hat has won 35% or less of their games on the season.
It all adds up to the Miami Hurricanes cruising to an easy win.
|12-05-20||Florida v. Tennessee +18||Top||31-19||Win||100||6 h 46 m||Show|
Tennessee vs Florida
From my days on Wall Street as an institutional trader, this is an example of arbitrage, which is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. In the SEC is buying low with Tennessee and selling high with Florida and getting a spread that is just too many points.
Teams in the SEC, like Tennessee, who have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread in all five games are 5-0 ATS in SEC competition in games played over the last five seasons.
Now, here is a money line betting system that has feasted on getting on cheaply priced underdogs and has earned a 45-65 record for just 43% wins, BUT has averaged a +300 underdog bet and making the $100 bettor a profit of $7,450 in bets made over the last five seasons. The requirements are simple and are to bet against road favorites using the money line after game number 5 of the regular season and having won five consecutive games.
So, I know and understand, that this is a bold statement, but play this bet as a 5% using the line and then sprinkle just a little on the money line – just in case of the shocker of all shockers. I have had at least one underdog of 17 or more points win the game in each of the last 10 seasons. I obviously never know when they will occur, but playing a little on the money line with these double-digit cast to the curb dogs has provided a lot more cash.
|12-05-20||Texas A&M v. Auburn +5.5||Top||31-20||Loss||-105||4 h 18 m||Show|
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
4% Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers +6.5 points. I also like playing this bet by placing an 85% amount of a 4% bet using the line and then15% of a 4% amount using the money line. This strategy when used on underdogs that I believe have a solid opportunity to win the game adds a significant amount of additional profits over the course of the season.
Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher was a great defensive coordinator for Florida State. He has his A&M team allowing just 3.0 yards-per-rush, ranking second in the SEC behind Georgia, who is allowing a scant 2.4 YPR on the season. In home games, Auburn is a stellar 27-12-1 ATS when facing strong rush defesnes allowing 120 or fewer yards-per-game in games played since 2006.
Auburn is 16-4-1 ATS after having covered the spread in three of their last four games since 2006; under head coach Gus Malzahn, they are 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets (7-2 ATS when the game is at home).
The bad news of losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama last week is good news this week as it puts them into a rock-solid betting system that has earned a highly profitable 33-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to be on underdogs from the eighth game on, between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points in the first half, and is averaging between 21 and 28 PPG and facing an elite offense scoring between 28 and 34 PPG on the season.
From the machine learning toolshed Auburn is projected to score at least 28 points and when they have accomplished this in past games, they are 15-2 ATS over the last three seasons and 118-47 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plus, a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog and scoring 28 or more points under head coach Malzahn.
|12-05-20||Penn State -11.5 v. Rutgers||Top||23-7||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
Penn State vs Rutgers
Noon ET, December 5, 2020
4% Best Bet on Penn State -11,-11.5 points. Given that my machine learning model project that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points, simply bet the game with the line that is available for you.
Here is a consistent money-making betting system that has earned a highly profitable 186-111-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG on the season and facing an opponent that has played two consecutive games in which they and their opponents scored 60 or more points. A subset including double digit road favorites and conference matchups produces a 71-39-1 ATS record good fo 65% winning bets since 2012.
PSU Head Coach James Franklin is a 12-3 ATS off a road win; 27-8-1 SATS off a win against a conference foe; 11-3 off a road win to a conference foe. PSU is an outstanding 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets installed as a double-digit road favorite and facing a host, who has a defense allowing 30 or more PPG on the season.
|11-29-20||49ers v. Rams -6.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-105||8 h 54 m||Show|
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan
|11-28-20||Ball State +10 v. Toledo||Top||27-24||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
Ball State Vs. Toledo
12:00 PM EST, November 28, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points. Consider an additional wager of no more than a 1% amount using the money line
Let’s start with a betting system that has earned a solid 35-9-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent that is allowing right or fewer points in the first half and are coming off two consecutive games in which they scored 20 or more points in the first half.
Toledo has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Ball State has won the money sporting a 7-4 ATS record. Ball State Senior QB Drew Pitt led his team to 38-0 first half lead over Toledo last season enroute to a 52-14 beat-down. He completed 11 fo 16 passes for 65% and 206 passing yards for an amazing 213 quarter rate. His leadership is invaluable and he knows Toledo and their defensive schemes well. So, this is just too many points to give Ball State in this matchup.
Toledo head coach Candle is just 2-10 ATS when coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored in each one.
Toledo QB Eli Peters remains listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he does start, he will not be even 80% effective.
Take the Ball State Cardinals plus the points as a 4% Best Bet Titan and sprinkle no more than 1% on the Money Line
|11-28-20||Kent State v. Buffalo -7||Top||41-70||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
Kent State vs. Buffalo
4% Best Bet on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points.
There are numerous coaching trends that support Buffalo in this matchup. Head Coach Leipold is 12-2-1 ATS in home games coming off one or more ‘OVER’ results; 18-3-1 ATS in home games facing MAC foes; 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the Bulls out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 125 rushing yards; 10-1 ATS in home games facing an opponent that completes a minimum of 58% of their passes.
From the machine learning model, Buffalo is projected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of of 6 yards-per-rush. Buffalo is 16-5 ATS over the last three seasons and 70-19-1 ATS the last ten seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS and 11-0 SU when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 6 or more YPR since 2011.
Take the Buffalo Bulls to the bank as a 4% Best Bet minus the points.
|11-27-20||Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6||Top||31-17||Loss||-110||5 h 58 m||Show|
Notre Dame vs North Carolina
The No.2 Notre Dame Irish will take to the road to face a white hot and No. 25 UNC Tarheels team in a monster showdown. UNC QB Sam Howell is coming off a school-record 550 passing yards in a come from behind 59-53 win over Wake Forest and is atop the ACC standings averaging 338 yards-per-game of total offense including 23 touchdowns.
Notre Dame will try to rotate defensive linemen and corners into the game, but UNC will play fast, especially when they have the matchup them want to exploit on the perimeter and the back-end of the Irish defense. The Irish start a true freshman at corner in Clarence Lewis and you can bet the Tarheels will look to exploit favorable matchups against him and not allow the Irish to have time to substitute for fatigued players.
The ground game of the Tarheels is a two-headed monster in Javonte Williams (109) and Michael Carter (101) both averaging more than 100 rushing yards-per-game. The Irish defense ranks best in the ACC allowing 85.1 RYPG, but that number is going to go up after this game. The solid ground attack is going to put immense pressure on the Irish secondary. The safeties in particular have to lineup closer to the line of scrimmage than normally required to support the run defense. When the safeties are playing run, then the vertical crossing routes are going to be in man converage for Howell to exploit time and time again.
Home underdogs coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 42 points in each game are a rock solid 71-34 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1980 and 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2017. If both teams are ranked and the home dog is ranked lower in the standings than the opponent (ND =2 and UNC=25), the home dog is a stellar 7-4 SU for 64% winning bets and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2006.
The machine learning model projects that UNC will average a minimum of 10 yards-per-pass play and rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards. In past games in which UNC met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 20-1 SU record and 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points in games played since 2000.
|11-26-20||Texans -3 v. Lions||Top||41-25||Win||100||4 h 26 m||Show|
Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions
4% Best Bet on the Houston Texans minus the points.
Over the last four games, Detroit has lost three of them by double digits and in their lone win, they nearly coughed up a 21-point lead. Head Coach Mike Patricia is on the hot seat for sure, but that does not mean his team is going to play any better in their only nationally televised game of the season today. Teams on short rest that have lost 3-of-4 games by more than double digits are 10-17 ATS for 37% winning bets dating back to 1992. The ‘OVER’ in these games has been an impressive 16-9-2 for 64% winning bets.
Here is a betting system that supports the play produced by the machine learning model and has earned a profitable 46-20-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Bet on road teams that allowed 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt in their last game and is now facing a struggling offensive team that gained 4.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt in their last game. Here is a subset of that system. When the team is playing on short rest the road teams has earned a 7-2 ATS record good for 78% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 9 points.
Wager on the Houston Texas as a 4% Best Bet and lay the points.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs OVER 48||Top||27-24||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for both teams to score at least 24 points. Further, both teasm will average a minimum of 5.5 yards-play. In past games in which both teasm averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play has led to an outstanding 850-220-24 for 79% winning bets on the ‘OVER’ since 2006. The Rams are 32-6 ‘OVER’ and 21-7 ‘OVER’ in games they played in and had both them and the opponent gain 5.5 or more yards-per-play.
This betting system has earned a 25-7 ‘OVER’ record good for 78% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are to bet ‘OVER’ the posted total between 43 and 50 points in the second half of the season with a team that is averaging between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards-per-attempt, coming off a previous game in which they averaged eight or more PYPA and now facing an opponent, whose defense has allowed between 5.3 to 5.9 PYPA. This system has hit 80% on an 8-2 record over the last five seasons.
|11-22-20||Packers v. Colts -1.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for the Colts defense to keep the Packers ground attack to fewer than 100 rushing yards and gain more yards-per-play than the Packers. In past home games in which the Colts met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 20-1 SU record and 17-3 ATS mark for 85% winning bets since 2010.
The Colts are coming off a double digit 34-17 SU win over their divisional rival Tennessee Titans. The Colts are a money-making 11-5 SU and 11-4-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010 when they defeated a divisional foe by a double digit margin in their previous game.
Take the Indianapolis Colts and bet them using the Money Line.
|11-22-20||Dolphins v. Broncos +4||Top||13-20||Win||100||4 h 0 m||Show|
NFL Week 11
4% Best Bet on the Denver Broncos
The Miami Dolphins have surged to a 6-3 SU record under the brilliant play of rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has put up some jaw-dropping numbers. With a win, Tua would join Ben Roethlisberger as the only other QB to win their first four games of their career.
Denver’s suffocating defense has not been playing well and have allowed 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. Yet, 44 of the 144 points allowed in these four games came off of turnovers with that opponent having a short field and much higher scoring chance. Denver’s defensive coordinator is out for this game, but has returned home after being hospitalized with COVID. DE Shelby Harris is out as well for this game. I still believe that Denver’s defense is going to present new challenges for Tua to overcome.
Here is a money line betting system that has earned a 17-6 SU record since 2010 and requires us to bet on home teams that average 100 to 125 RYPG and are coming off a game getting outrushed by 100 or more yards and now facing a suspect defensive unit allowing an average of 125 to 150 RYPG in the second half of the current season.
Bet the Denver Broncos and sprinkle a little extra wager using the money line.
|11-22-20||Titans v. Ravens -5.5||Top||30-24||Loss||-110||1 h 52 m||Show|
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
4% AFC Best Bet Showdown on the Baltimore Ravens
The machine learning model projects that Baltimore will gain 200 or more rushing and 200 or more passing yards. In past games in which Baltimore met or exceeded these measures has led to a highly profitable 8-0 SU record and a 7-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets that covered by an average of 17 points since 2000.