Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-16 | Connecticut +4 v. Navy | Top | 24-28 | Push | 0 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on UConn as they take on Navy in AAC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UConn will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 over the last 5 seasons good for 80% winners and made 23.2 units/unit wagered. Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-24 since 1992 71.1% winners and made 32.6 units/unit wagered. Play ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Fundamental Discussion Points Navy's Tago Smith is out for the season ( Knee ). Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was a one-man show for the Huskies in the opener, passing for 162 yards and rushing for 95 more on 20 carries. Ron Johnson (two touchdowns) and Arkeel Newsome (one) each carried the ball 15 times in the opener, combining for 105 yards. The Huskies were among the nation's stingiest defenses last season. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Take Connecticut Huskies. |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest +7 v. Duke | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Duke in ACC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wake Forest will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wake Forest is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. Duke is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they commit 3 turnovers since 1992. Wake Forest is 8-3 straight up against Duke at home since 1992. Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings head to head. Fundamental Discussion Points A stout defensive effort made Hinton's early touchdown stand up as the Demon Deacons won their opener for the second year in a row. WF faced a real division 1 team in Tulane as opposed to Duke facing a barely division 1 team in NCCU to pad their stats. Walford has averaged 292 yards with five touchdowns in two career meetings with Duke. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Duke is known for their basketball, not football...so take Wake Forest Demon Deacons. |
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09-10-16 | Utah State v. USC -16 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is a money losing 4-26 ATS (-24.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; USC is a stout 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points Clay Helton comes back to the Coliseum after a big opening day shellacking on National TV. The Trojans Offense returned 10 starters from a team that averaged 34 points a game in 2015 and after getting shut down by the Bama D last week will look to turn it on against a Utah State team that had an easy going against a division 1A program. Utah State had to replace a big portion of its' defense only returning 3 starters from last years team. This gives us tremendous line value in this game and look for the Trojans to come out with a purpose this week and win this one easy. FIGHT ON. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
25* graded play on the Denver Broncos as they take on the Carolina Panthers in Inter-league NFL action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these plays combination wagers using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. The money line, however, must be +140 or higher to validate the risk-reward profile. If it is not at level then simply wager a 25* amount using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 14-1 against the money line (+12.0 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Denver is also 13-1 against the money line (+12.5 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points I think we all must remember the major matchup that saw Denver dominate Carolina in SB 50. Carolina tackle Remmers against OLB Von Miller. That matchup is the same, but both teams are significantly different from last years SB 50 rosters. Still, it will be that matchup to watch and one that Miller will again dominate. Over the 19 SB 50 snaps that the two met in pass-block/rush situations, Remmers held up entirely on just three occasions. That’s roughly 15 percent of the snaps. Think about that for a second: When left alone with the assignment of blocking Von Miller, there was only a 15 percent chance that Remmers was going to get the job done. There were five other snaps in which either Miller was reading Cam Newton on the rush and playing contain, there was a legit double-team, or the ball came out too fast for any kind of winner or loser to be determined. Even if we fold all of those into the “win” column for Remmers, he escaped unbeaten on only 42.1 percent of his snaps against Miller. The problem the Denver Broncos present is that they have other threats to contend with. Even if you take Miller’s pressures out of the equation, the Broncos’ defense racked up 33 total pressures in the last meeting, with five different players amassing four or more individually. If you eliminate Miller entirely from the pressure column with a combination of strategies, you still need to find a way to block DeMarcus Ware, Shaquil Barrett, Derek Wolfe, Shane Ray, and the rest of the defense. Take Denver. The Panthers O-line alone gave up 31 pressures in the Super Bowl, and on plays in which Newton was pressured, he completed just 35.3 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 53.6. |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -6 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
50* graded play on FSU as they take on Mississippi in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 9 points. FSU returns all 11 offensive starters including the QB obviously. Mississippi returns 10 starters with 5 on offense and 5 on defense. This is a monumental advantage for FSU, especially with the chemistry they now have on the OL for both pass blocking and run blocking. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1992. Play against any team (OLE MISS) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% winning record) playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mississippi is just 26-71 ATS (-52.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. FSU is a solid 128-70 ATS (+51.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points. Fundamental Discussion Points Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles come into the 2016 season and many predict to be in the playoff hunt for a national title, the offense returns intact from last years team averaging 32 points per game but most likely will start the young Quarterback in this game. The defense lost some key personnel but this roster is loaded with talent all over and also brings in the nations top recruiting class. The FSU run game returns Dalvin Cook who many feel is the best running back in the country. Ole Miss comes into this game with the best Quarterback on the field in Chad Kelly, but will be without his top playmaker Laquan Treadwell who took his talents to the NFL. Hugh Freeze has done a great job at Ole Miss going to 4 straight bowl games and the only SEC team with Alabama's number. Ole Miss lost some key playmakers on defense and all everything tackle and main run stuffer Robert Nkemdiche. This should allow Florida State to control the ground game and the clock, keeping Chad Kelly and the Ole Miss offense frustrated. We look for Florida State to get off to a good start on their National Title Hopes today and will take the Seminoles where they are typically very strong playing at a neutral site, which should still feel like home for the Seminoles. Take FSU. |
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09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this play a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. Current ML are in the +150 range. Should the line movement decrease to below +140 then simply play a 25* amount using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-24 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a money burning 18-69 ATS (-57.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; Texas is a solid 38-10 ATS (+27.0 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt. Fundamental Discussion Points The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now – offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163. |
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09-03-16 | BYU -2 v. Arizona | Top | 18-16 | Push | 0 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on BYU as they take on Arizona in non-conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by at least 4 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Arizona is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Rodriguez is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday in all games he has coached since 1992. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on grass. Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Fundamental Discussion Points The Cougars will display a variety of pro-style sets under new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, who threw for more than 15,000 yards in his BYU career. Hill started last year's season opener against Nebraska before suffering a season-ending injury that opened the door for Mangum to throw for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Cougars should have a much better running game led by Jamaal Williams, who sat out last season after withdrawing from school and returns 930 yards shy of breaking the school rushing record. Where they'll need players to step up is the receiving corps, where only one of the top four pass catchers return from last season and that's Nick Kurtz, who caught 39 passes for 578 yards and three touchdowns. Like the Cougars, the Wildcats will also be thin on experience at wide receiver compared to a year ago, as last season's leading receiver, Cayleb Jones, left early for the NFL and second-leading receiver Johnny Jackson used up his eligibility. Freddie Tagaloa is expected to anchor an offensive line still reeling from the sudden death last month of Zach Hemmila, who started six games at left guard last season. Last season 'Zona's defense allowed 46.8% 3rd down conversions and 92% red zone scoring while BYU only allowed 38.4% 3rd down conversions and 75% red zone scoring. |
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09-03-16 | Clemson v. Auburn +9 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Clemson in NCAA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at a major upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making these combination wagers using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. I am seeing lines north of +275, so this represents a tremendous investment opportunity. Over the course of the season, these combination wagers will add a significant amount to the bottom line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 mark good for 80% ATS winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) and is a team that had a winning record last season, playing in a non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Fundamental Discussion Points While Clemson is obviously the clear favorite for the public at 67% (as of Aug. 30th) and ranked at number two in the AP Preseason Pool, I have decided to go with Auburn. Clemson undoubtedly had an incredible year last year, but also lost nine players due to the NFL draft (compared to Auburn’s three). With seven of those draftees being defensive players, Clemson only has four returning defensive starters. Only one starter remains in Clemson’s secondary, so look for Auburn QB Sean White to attack the secondary in the season opener. Sean White has emerged as the Auburn starter in the wake of a 3 way QB battle over the summer; he brings experience and knowledge of the offense to the field, which is very important in the opening weeks. |
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09-03-16 | Kent State v. Penn State -23 | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 ATS mark good for 87% winners since 2006. Play against any team in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is now facing an opponent in the first month of the season that was a bowl team from prior season and who lost their last 3 games. The need for PSU to get out of the gate well is only magnified by how they finished last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they allow 42 to 48 points; 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 4 or less net passing yards/attempt; 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; PSU is a stout 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards. Fundamental Discussion Points KSU finished dead last in D_1 offensive scoring last season. PSU returns just 5 defensive starters, but the additions are vastly superior to those players replaced by graduation. They have the perfect offensive opponent and the offense will shred the Flash defense. Not to mention that PSU is back to fully strength with 85 scholarship players. |
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09-01-16 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chargers | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on San Diego in NFLX action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Fran will win this game by more than 3 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 53-21 over the last 10 seasons good for 71.6% winners and made 30 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-9 since 1993 good for 78.6% winners and made 23.1 units/unit wagered. Play Against any team (SAN DIEGO) - outrushed by their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/carry on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1993. San Diego is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1993. Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. In head to head the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Fundamental Discussion Points The 49ers players (excluding off-the-field activity) have much more at stake in this game than any of the Chargers with their roster pretty much solidified. The Niners still have Boldin and Smith as WRs to help the offense early in this game. Take San Francisco 49ers. |
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09-01-16 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -4 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will win this game by at least 7 points. Fundamental Discussion Points Vanderbilt has high hopes for a successful campaign in the elite SEC Conference, but the public is giving them no respect at all. Consensus betting as of this morning showed only 33% support for the Vanderbilt. What is really revealing is that despite the lack of love, the line has moved up from an opening line of -3 to -4. This is somewhat rare and reflects the smart money (big bettors) coming in on Vanderbilt in size that more than offsets the public’s $100 bets. The Commodores’ defense took a big jump last year when Mason took over as coordinator, and the unit returns enough key players to expect a repeat performance. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur has won the job after starting five of the final six games last season and throwing for 503 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The return of receiver C.J. Duncan after missing last season due to injury gives the Commodores a solid receiving corps to complement running back Ralph Webb (1,152 rushing yards, 5 TDs last season). I certainly believe that SC will have a very tough time running the ball. South Carolina RB David Williams is the team’s top returning rusher (299 yards in 2015) at his position but is behind redshirt freshman A.J. Turner on the depth chart. |
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08-28-16 | Bengals v. Jaguars -1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
50* graded play on Jacksonville as they take Cincinnati in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game by 6 or more points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-15 mark good for 72% winners since 1993. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bengals are 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points. JAX is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points Fundamental Discussion Points Given the line is a skinny -1 ½ points, I see no problem if you would bet the ML instead of the line. The aforementioned system has gone 33-6 for 85% winners since 1998. JAX is 0-2 in the preseason and will look to get a win tonight for the home crowd. This is a common occurrence in NFLX action, especially with a team that is looking to be much improved from being a perennial losing one. |
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08-26-16 | Patriots +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on New England as they take on Carolina in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New England will win this game by at least 7. Brady will play, but Garopolo is the man and a vastly under rated talent. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-20 since 1993 good for 72.2% winners and made 30 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New England is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1993; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt since 1993; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards since 1993. Carolina is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards since 1993. Take New England Patriots. |
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08-25-16 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Dallas in NFLX action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 since 1993 good for 72% winners and made 20.6 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (DALLAS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1993; 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 yards or less since 1993; 21-45 ATS (-28.5 Units) after playing a non-conference game since 1993; 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1993. Seattle is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1993; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards since 1993; 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1993; 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1993. Garrett is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a non-conference game as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Take Seattle Seahawks. |
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08-25-16 | BC v. Ottawa -2 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Ottawa as they take on British Columbia in CFL action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ottawa will win this game by more than 4 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. British Columbia is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in games where they are outgained by their opponents by 50 yards or less since 1996. Ottawa is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing under 340 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.Ottawa at home is 2-0 against the spread versus British Columbia over the last 3 seasons. Take Ottawa. |