Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-07-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 82-86 | Push | 0 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Washington beat Indiana 102-96 in Game 1 on Monday night, but we do not expect that to happen again in Game 2 tonight. The Wizards simply shot the lights out from beyond the arc in that game, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that performance. Washington shot an incredible 62.5% (10-16) from three-point land, and they also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game. That game was an aberration, and we expect Indiana’s superiority to rein supreme in this game. During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense. In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings. Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense. Indiana is a terrible match-up for Washington despite the results in Game 1. 9* Play PACERS (-). |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 192 | 86-107 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Brooklyn needed seven games to beat Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets just played on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, and now they must travel to Miami and play on just one day of rest. This is not the best of spots for Brooklyn, but on the flip side, Miami has not played in seven days, so they may need some time to get into a rhythm. Brooklyn and Miami played four times this season, and the Nets won all four games. Three of their wins came by just a single point, and their other win came in overtime. Those four games were played at an extremely slow pace, and in fact, they averaged only 88.1 possessions per game. We expect Game 1 to be played at a similar pace, especially considering the circumstances mentioned above. 10* Play UNDER the total. |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Washington took care of Chicago much easier than expected. The Wizards won that series in five games, and their only loss came by just 3 points. Washington simply proved to be too fast for Chicago, and their offense was able to get easy baskets by using their speed edge. Things will be much different for Washington in this series versus Indiana, and the Wizards’ offense will have to work hard for every basket. During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense. In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings. Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense. Indiana is simply a terrible match-up for Washington. 10* Play PACERS (-). |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 198 | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Dallas and San Antonio have played to a pattern in this series, and we expect that to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon. The Mavericks and Spurs opened the series with a very low-scoring game in which San Antonio won 90-85. The next two games were high-scoring with point totals of 205 and 217. Both teams shot extremely well in those two games, but the shooting cooled off in Game 4 when the teams combined to score just 182 points. Dallas and San Antonio then played back-to-back high-scoring affairs in Games 5 and 6 with point totals of 212 and 224. The Mavericks and Spurs shot the lights out in the last two games as they combined to shoot 48.7% (165-339) from the field and 44.9% (35-78) from three-point land. The teams cooled way off in Game 4 after back-to-back hot shooting games, and we expect that to repeat today, especially since this is Game 7. 10* Play UNDER the total. |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 +9 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 | 109-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Memphis was embarrassed by Oklahoma City in Game 6 on their home court as they lost by 20 points (104-84). The Grizzlies also lost their cool, and that got Zach Randolph suspended for this game. However, Memphis is a resilient and deep team, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight, even without one of their best players. Memphis is 2-1 in Oklahoma City in this series; their lone loss came in Game 1 when they were simply in a terrible spot. The Grizzlies are a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss in this series, and playing well off a loss is something Memphis has done all season. In fact, when playing off a SU loss, Memphis is 25-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 30-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss based on tonight’s pointspread. |
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05-02-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 212 | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Houston and Portland played the first four games in this series Over the total. That wasn’t the case in Game 5 when Houston won 108-98 in a lower scoring game. However, the pace of that game was fast, just as the rest of the games between the Rockets and Blazers have been. The teams combined to take 174 shots in Game 5 despite the lower score. Houston and Portland were bad from three-point land as they shot just 34.0% (17-50) from beyond the arc. There were also minimal free throw attempts in the game with the teams combining for just 41 total attempts. Prior to Game 5, both teams had scored 101 points or more in all eight meetings this season. The winning team has scored 108 points or more in every meeting this season, and there’s nothing we’ve seen to indicate that trend will not continue. 10* Play OVER the total. |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Game 5 was tailor made for Los Angeles. The Clippers returned home off a 21-point blowout loss (118-97) the game before, and they were playing in front of their home fans after the incident with their owner. Los Angeles fed off their emotion, and the officials were also influenced in their calls. The Clippers won 113-103 after shooting 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from three-point land. Los Angeles held a huge advantage from the free throw line as they were handed a whopping 41 attempts while Golden State only took 19 free throws. The Clippers hit 75.6% (31-41) from the line, and that was simply the difference in the game. Tonight’s game will return to normal with the game on the Warriors’ home court; the Clippers will not get all of the favorable calls. Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to match the emotion from Game 5, and they won’t be able to repeat their outstanding performance on the court. |
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04-30-14 | Brooklyn Nets +3 v. Toronto Raptors | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Brooklyn and Toronto have played a highly competitive series, and that was certainly expected. There’s not much that separates the Nets and Raptors, so we expect tonight’s game to be close throughout, especially with this being a crucial Game 5. Brooklyn blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series after storming back from a 17-point deficit. The game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but Brooklyn was terrible over the final 12 minutes of play as they scored just 12 points. Overall, Brooklyn’s offense was poor as they shot just 41.2% (28-68) from the field and an ugly 20.0% (4-20) from three-point land. The Nets also blew their opportunities from the free throw line as they missed 10 attempts (19-29) in the game. Brooklyn’s best player in this series has been Joe Johnson, but he was terrible in Game 4 as he scored just 7 points in 41 minutes of action. His offense will bounce back strong as will the entire Brooklyn team. |
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04-29-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play when they got blown out by 14 points (100-86). The Grizzlies bounced back strong in Game 2 when they won outright (111-105) in overtime as 7-point underdogs. Memphis also played up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 as both went to overtime with the Grizzlies winning by 3 points and losing by 3 points. The last three games have all been close, and we expect more of the same in Game 5 tonight. Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season. The Grizzlies are 24-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 26-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss. |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta has been a surprise in this series, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than being tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5. The Hawks were the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and while some of their poor record can be attributed to injuries, the Hawks still have a lot of issues. Atlanta’s offense is not a consistent unit, and after they scored 101 points in Game 1, they’ve only averaged 90.3 points per game over the last three games. Atlanta’s defense is also extremely poor on the road as they allow opponents to score 103.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land. In their 101-85 loss at Indiana in Game 2, the Hawks allowed the Pacers to shoot 52.9% (36-68) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land. In this critical Game 5 tonight, we expect a strong offensive performance from the Pacers, and Atlanta’s poor defense will be a contributing factor. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 209 | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Los Angeles and Golden State have played seven times this season, and the Clippers have won four of those games. All seven games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 105 points or more in six of the seven games, and both teams scored 96 points or more in six of the seven games. Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA. Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we expect that to be the case this afternoon. |
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04-26-14 | Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 188 | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Miami holds a 2-0 series lead as the scene shifts to Charlotte. The Heat won the first two games because of hot shooting, and a lot of help from the refs. Miami shot 49.0% (70-143) from the field and 43.5% (20-46) from three-point land. The Heat also took 55 free throws in the first two games which gave them a free 40 points from the line. Both games went Over the total despite being played at slow paces. During the regular season, Miami and Charlotte played extremely slow as their games only averaged 90.1 possessions per game. They played the slowest games of the eight playoff series, and since the first two games went Over the total due to above average shooting, we expect things to revert back to normal tonight, especially considering the situation for the Bobcats. |
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04-25-14 | Chicago Bulls +3 v. Washington Wizards | 100-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Chicago is down 0-2 in this series, but they could very well be up 2-0. The Bulls took a lead into the fourth quarter of both games, but they played terrible over the final 12 minutes of each game and handed Washington a pair of wins. In Games 1 and 2, Chicago out-scored Washington 150-142 over the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Wizards out-scored the Bulls 61-42. Chicago’s defense gave up 102 points in Game 1 and 101 points in Game 2 and allowing over 100 points in something the Bulls don’t do too often. In fact, Chicago has allowed more than 100 points just 18 times in 84 games this season. Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect the Bulls to play exceptional defense tonight. In three regular season meetings, Chicago held Washington to just 92 points per game, including a 78-point output on the Wizards’ home floor earlier this month. 10* Play BULLS (+). |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 98-96 | Push | 0 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Golden State and Los Angeles are tied at one game apiece as the series changes locations. The Warriors won Game 1 109-105, but they were crushed in Game 2 by 40 points (138-98). That was an embarrassing loss for Golden State, and with tonight’s game being played on their home court, we expect a strong bounce back effort. Prior to their win on Monday night, Los Angeles was just 3-4 SU over their previous seven games. The Clippers couldn’t have played any better than they did as they shot 56.6% (47-83) from the field and 48.0% (12-25) from three-point land. They were also phenomenal from the free throw line as they hit 91.4% (32-35) of their attempts. Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to repeat that outstanding performance, especially since their level of play versus playoff teams since the All-Star break was not any good. Los Angeles went just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span. The Clippers held Golden State to 6.2 points below their season average, and that’s not going to happen in back-to-back games. |
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04-23-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets OVER 214.5 | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Portland and Houston played to a 122-120 final in overtime in Game 1 on Sunday night. The game went Over the total thanks to overtime as the teams were tied at 106 at the end of regulation. However, the pace of that game was extremely fast, and the teams combined to take 202 shots from the field. The reason the game wasn’t higher scoring in regulation was due to the poor shooting and missed free throws. Portland only shot 43.3% (42-97) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land. Houston only shot 41.0% (43-105) from the field and 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land. The Blazers and Rockets also combined to miss 24 free throws after getting to the line a total of 79 times. All four regular season games were also played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games. Those trends continued in Game 1 of this playoff series, and there’s no reason they won’t repeat once again tonight. |
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04-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5 | 101-99 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Washington won Game 1 on Sunday night 102-93 after out-scoring Chicago 30-18 in the fourth quarter. The Wizards shot the ball well in that game as they hit 48.6% (36-74) from the field. Washington was also quite aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times which was nine more attempts than Chicago. All five starters scored 13 points or more. Chicago only shot 42.0% (34-81) from the field and an ugly 25.0% (5-20) from three-point land. Despite that, Washington still trailed by 3 points heading into the fourth quarter. The Wizards simply won the final 12 minutes, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay competitive in Game 2 tonight. Washington is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best. The Wizards have been held to less than 100 points 17 times on the road this season; they went just 6-11 SU in those games. The Wizards will not get their preferred fast pace tonight in Chicago, especially since the Bulls are off a poor defensive game. |
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04-21-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play. The Grizzlies were playing hard down the stretch just to make the playoffs, and their final regular season game against Dallas went to overtime before the Grizzlies won and got the #7 seed. Memphis was playing on tired legs on Saturday night; they got out-scored 56-34 in the first half before losing 100-86. Off that blowout loss, we expect the Grizzlies to bounce back strong tonight. Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season. The Grizzlies are 23-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 25-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss. The Grizzlies’ defense was poor in Game 1, but they only gave up 94.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land on the season. Memphis’ defense will play much better tonight. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 v. HOUSTON GM1 OVER 214 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Portland and Houston played four times this season, and all four games went Over the total. All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game. The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games. Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA. Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs. |
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04-20-14 | PORTLAND GM1 +5.5 v. HOUSTON GM1 | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Portland comes into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball. The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU over their last ten games; they were just 4-9 SU over their previous 13 games. The difference came when LeMarcus Aldridge returned to the court from injury. His presence gives Portland an interior force on both ends of the court which makes the Blazers an extremely difficult team to beat, especially by margin. Portland’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they’ve averaged 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land. In four games versus Houston this season, the Blazers scored 101 points or more in every game while averaging 109.5 points per game. Portland’s offense will have success once again tonight, especially since the Rockets have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 211 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Golden State and Los Angeles played four times this season, and the teams split the series two games apiece. All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.5 possessions per game. The winning team scored 105 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 98 points or more in three of the four games. Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA. Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA. These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs. |
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04-19-14 | Golden State Warriors +7 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. The Warriors are 10-5 SU over their last fifteen games and 20-10 over their last thirty games. Four of Golden State’s last five losses have come by single digits which means they had a legitimate shot at winning. Golden State’s offense is in tremendous form right now as they are averaging 114.8 points per game over their last five games. The Warriors are shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from three-point land. In four games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State averaged 107.3 points per game while going 2-2 SU in those games. |
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | 94-87 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014. At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 22-4 record. On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 12-13. When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as nine of their thirteen losses have come by 7 points or more. Six of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 14.3 points per game. The Nets have lost their last two road games, and their defense allowed a total of 229 points on 54.3% (89-164) shooting from the field and 43.2% (19-44) shooting from three-point land. Brooklyn also fouls too much, and those two opponents took 47 free throw attempts. |
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04-16-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191.5 | 105-106 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Dallas and Memphis come into tonight’s game with identical 49-32 SU records on the season, and because of that, they are battling for playoff positioning. The winner of tonight’s game will get the #7 seed and face either the Thunder or the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser will get the #8 seed and have to face the Spurs. With the way San Antonio has been playing since the All-Star break, teams are looking to avoid them. That means the Mavericks and Grizzlies will bring their best efforts tonight, and this game will be played like a playoff game. Both teams are also intent on reaching the 50-win plateau and that only gives this game more intensity. Dallas knows what to expect from Memphis tonight, and they are preparing to play the Grizzlies’ style of basketball. “It will be that kind of game, slow down and grind it,” said Vince Carter. “That’s how it’s going to be. We’ll have to stick our nose in there and fight back.” |
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04-14-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 196 | 95-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Charlotte is still battling Washington for the #6 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bobcats come off back-to-back games against bottom feeders Boston and Philadelphia, and Charlotte got caught playing their opponent’s style of basketball. The Bobcats’ defense was poor because of the fast pace, and they allowed 106 points to the Celtics and 105 points to the Sixers. Prior to those two games, Charlotte’s defense was playing terrific, holding teams to just 89.8 points per game over their previous five games. Charlotte is playing another playoff-bound team in Atlanta tonight, so this game will be played with a much slower pace which is more of the Bobcats’ style. Head coach Steve Clifford was vocal about his team’s poor transition defense in their last two games, so we know tonight’s focus will be on the defensive end of the court.
Atlanta’s win over Miami in their last game locked them into the #8 spot for the playoffs. The Hawks will be resting players tonight, and that’s on top of missing some starters already because of injury. Atlanta will have a limited roster tonight, and they have absolutely zero interest in the results of this game. The Hawks have tightened things on defense recently as they are only allowing 92 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. Atlanta’s offense will be severely limited tonight as they’ll be playing without three starters that average a combined 41 points per game. Neither team plays at a fast pace, and with the circumstances in which these teams will play tonight’s game, we expect a low-scoring scrum between the Bobcats and Hawks. 9* Play UNDER the total. |
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04-12-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +11 v. Washington Wizards | 91-104 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has had an awful season; the Bucks are just 15-64 overall and 5-34 on the road. Despite those awful numbers, and with the season winding down, Milwaukee has not quit. The Bucks are still playing hard, and they’ve been competitive in their games. Over their last 28 games, Milwaukee is an incredible 23-5 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread. They’ve only lost five games by 12 points or more, and two of those losses came to the Miami Heat. The Bucks have given the Wizards fits all season with two games going to overtime and the other game decided by only 7 points. Milwaukee won 109-105 on this court earlier this season, so they are quite capable of playing with the Wizards. Milwaukee comes in off a nice home win last night, so they have momentum for tonight, especially against a team they know they can compete with.
Washington comes into this game off back-to-back big games that had huge playoff implications. The Wizards are battling Charlotte for the coveted sixth spot in the Eastern Conference, and they lost to the Bobcats in overtime on Wednesday night. The Wizards bounced back strong off that disappointing loss last night as they won in Orlando 96-86. However, they needed a big fourth quarter (29-16) to overcome a 14-point deficit in that game. With that win, the Wizards took back the #6 spot after Charlotte lost in Boston. This is the ultimate flat spot game for Washington, especially since they are playing an also-ran team while laying double digits. We’ll take the big points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night. 10* Play BUCKS (+). |
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04-11-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics +4.5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte comes into tonight’s game in Boston off a huge overtime win in Washington. The Bobcats basically secured at least the #6 spot in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference with that win; they’ve been battling the Wizards for that spot. Charlotte can still improve, so they still have something to play for. However, for a young team that has three starters that have never been in the post-season, tonight’s game is a flat spot, especially after clinching in dramatic fashion the other night. Kemba Walker is also unlikely to play tonight after he tweaked his groin late in their win over Washington. The Bobcats are off back-to-back overtime wins (four of their last seven games have gone to overtime) as road underdogs and now they are laying a handful of points. This is simply not a good situational spot for Charlotte, especially since they are a young team that is heading to the playoffs for the first time.
Boston has had a terrible season, and despite coming into tonight on a 9-game losing streak, the Celtics have not quit. Boston led by 9 points in the fourth quarter in Atlanta on Wednesday night before losing. The Celtics are playing just their second home game this month, and since they’ve lost their last three home games, we expect a good effort tonight. Boston is also taking a drop in class for this home game after facing the likes of Chicago, Toronto, Miami, and Phoenix. The Celtics are finally playing with their original starting five as both Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley have returned to the court together. Nine of Boston’s last twelve losses have come by single digits, and that shows that this team has not given up on the season. Charlotte is simply in a bad situational spot, so we’ll take the home underdog in this game on Friday night. 9* Play CELTICS (+). |
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04-09-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Orlando Magic +5.5 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Brooklyn fooled us last night by going into Miami and winning outright. Maybe the Nets simply match-up well versus the Heat since they’ve beat them four times this season. Despite taking a loss last night, we’re going to play-against Brooklyn once again tonight for similar reasons. The Nets are just 12-11 SU on the road in 2014; they are 21-2 SU at home during the same time. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 13.9 points per game, and that shows how bad their play away from has been. The Nets are playing on a back-to-back road set tonight, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game over the last nine days. Off the spotlight win in Miami last night, this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Brooklyn.
Orlando has had a miserable season, but the Magic haven’t quit, especially when playing at home. They are 3-3 SU over their last six home games with two of the three losses coming by 5 points or less. Overall, Orlando is 18-20 on their home court this season, so they’ve been a tough out. Orlando is the much fresher team in this game as they’ve had three days off while Brooklyn has been grinding for playoff positioning. Orlando is also catching the Nets at the perfect time, just as they were when they beat Brooklyn 107-86 on this court. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU in games directly following their wins over Miami, and one of those losses was their 21-point defeat in Orlando. This is just a terrible spot for Brooklyn, so we’ll take the points with the home underdog in this game on Wednesday night. 10* Play MAGIC (+). |
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04-08-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | 88-87 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014. At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 21-2 record. On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 11-11. One of those road wins did come in Miami last month when the Nets won 96-95 as 9-point road underdogs. Brooklyn has actually won all three meeting versus Miami this season with the three wins coming by a combined 11 points. When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as eight of their eleven losses have come by 7 points or more. Five of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more. Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 13.9 points per game. The Nets will be playing their fifth game over the last eight days, and they’ve been altering their lineup with Kevin Garnett going in and out.
Miami has turned things on down the stretch as they’ve won six of their last eight games with the two losses both coming by a single point each. Miami is also 6-1 ATS over their last seven games, and their last three home wins have all come by 10 points or more. Miami is quite focused on tonight’s game after losing to Brooklyn three times this season. The Heat also have the fresher legs since they’re playing their fifth consecutive home game, and only their fourth game this month. Overall, Miami is 31-7 at home this season where they are averaging 105.6 points per game on 51.7% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land. Brooklyn’s road defense has been poor all season as they allow 101.2 points per game. We expect Miami to bring their A-game tonight en route to an easy double digit win over the Nets. 10* Play HEAT (-). |
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04-07-14 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +3 | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been ultra-impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to cap off their run with a National Championship tonight. The Huskies beat five good teams along the way, including the #1 team in the country, Florida, on Saturday night. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a much better defense than Kentucky. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Wildcats give up 0.96 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 63.5 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.0% shooting from three-point land. The Huskies can also get to the free throw line as 23% of their points come from the line. Kentucky tends to foul too much, and 22% of the points they allow come from the stripe. Connecticut also owns a big edge over Kentucky from the line as the Huskies hit 77.4% of their attempts while Kentucky only hits 68.5% of their attempts. That’s a major edge in a game that is projected to be close.
Kentucky is certainly playing as good as Connecticut right now, but the Wildcats are taking on a team that is rated higher in my power ratings. Connecticut is 0.2 points better based on my raw power ratings, and that means this game should be a Pick’em. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Kentucky only goes to a 1-point favorite. The posted line is too high based on my power ratings, and that means the value is on the Huskies in this game. Kentucky has played the toughest tournament opponents to get to this game, but after beating the likes of Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the young Wildcats may take an off the radar team like Connecticut a bit lightly. Kentucky has also been winning by slim margins as all of their tournament games were decided by 7 points or less with three of those games decided by 3 points or less. Connecticut has line value and the better defense, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies in the National Championship game on Monday night. 10* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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04-06-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 92-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Memphis is fighting for a playoff spot, and coming into tonight’s game, the Grizzlies are tied for the eight and final spot with Phoenix. This is a huge game for Memphis, especially since the Suns are playing at home tonight. Memphis has lost all three games against San Antonio this season, but two of the three games were close. The Grizzlies lost by 2 points in overtime in the last meeting, and they took the Spurs to the wire in a 7-point loss in San Antonio in the first meeting. Memphis matches-up extremely well with San Antonio as four of the last ten meetings have gone to overtime, and six of the ten games were decided by 7 points or less. Memphis plays terrific defense as they only allow 94.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land. San Antonio hasn’t faced a defense as good as Memphis’ in a long time, and since the Spurs are in a bad situational spot, we expect their offense to struggle tonight.
San Antonio’s 19-game winning streak got snapped on Thursday night when they lost 106-94 in Oklahoma City. There were reports circulating that Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich wanted the streak to end in order to give his team a breather heading into the playoffs. Off that streak-ending loss, we expect Popovich to limit the minutes of his starters, just like he has done in previous years. The Spurs have been on a remarkable run since the All-Star break, but it’s unsustainable, and we expect some short-term regression now. San Antonio played an extremely easy schedule during their winning streak, but their upcoming opponents will present stiffer challenges. Memphis will give the Spurs all they want in this game, and in a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with the hungry and motivated underdog on Sunday night. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin | 74-73 | Push | 0 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Kentucky is playing at a much higher level now than they were in early March. Going into the SEC tournament, head coach John Calipari made some adjustments, and those changes have paid off big. The Wildcats are 6-1 in seven games since the start of the SEC tournament with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament: “You’ll see a different team when you watch Friday.” The players were also on the same page: “I think we’re just going to be playing a lot better,” said James Young. Willie Cauley-Stein added: “That swagger was coming back to our team.” Kentucky’s defense has been outstanding since Calipari made the changes; they’ve allowed just 64.6 points per game on 45.0% (163-362) shooting from the field. Kentucky has played the toughest opponents in the tournament according to my power ratings, and they are actually taking a step-down in class in this game.
Wisconsin’s path to the Final 4 has been easy as the Badgers faced a slew of low-rated teams. Aside from their overtime win over Arizona, the Badgers have played junk in this tournament. Tonight’s game against Kentucky is going to be extremely difficult for Wisconsin because they simply do not have the quickness to match-up with the Wildcats. In their game against Michigan, it was obvious that Kentucky’s speed off the dribble was overwhelming the Wolverines. The Badgers are much slower than Michigan, so it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to keep Kentucky from driving to the basket. Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 60% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range. Kentucky scores 54% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint. Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (32% of their points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is strong (26% of points allowed), holding opponents to just 32.0% shooting from three-point land. Kentucky is a poor match-up for Wisconsin, and we expect the Wildcats to win this game on Saturday night. 10* Play KENTUCKY. |
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04-05-14 | Connecticut +6.5 v. Florida | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to be a tough out for Florida in this game. The Huskies beat Florida 65-64 back in early December, and that win shows that they can play with the Gators. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a comparable defense to Florida. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Gators give up 0.90 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 63.7 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land. The Huskies can also get to the free throw line as 23% of their points come from the line. Florida tends to foul too much, and 21% of the points they allow come from the stripe. That’s a major edge for Connecticut in what projects to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Florida is the #1 team in the country as they come into this game with a 36-2 record. There are no real knocks on the Gators, but they have yet to be challenged in this tournament and their recent games have not set them up for tonight’s game. The Gators are taking a big step-up in class versus Connecticut, and the pointspread is a tad on the high side. My raw power ratings make Florida a 5-point favorite, and just a 6-point favorite when adjusting for strength of schedule. That’s important because Florida did not win by big margins away from home in conference play this season, and in fact, nine of the Gators’ eleven wins came by single digits. The SEC and AAC are comparable conferences based on ratings; they are separated by just 0.56 points. These two teams are much closer than the seeds reflect, and there’s even some value on the Huskies according to my power ratings. We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Connecticut on Saturday night. 9* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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04-04-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | 109-93 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Phoenix had a big game at home versus the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night. The Suns controlled that game for three quarters, but they fell apart in the fourth quarter and got out-scored 34-17 and lost 112-108. Phoenix blew a 17-point lead, and off that critical loss, we expect the Suns to play with a hangover tonight. The Suns have lost back-to-back games after winning eight of their previous nine games. Phoenix has failed to play any defense in their last two games as they’ve allowed a total of 227 points. The Suns’ defense doesn’t get any breaks tonight in Portland against a Blazers’ offense that averages 108.1 points per game on their home court.
Portland is playing much better basketball now that LeMarcus Aldridge is back on the court. While he was out with injury, the Trail Blazers really struggled and they lost 8 of 11 games. Portland comes into tonight’s game on a 4-game winning streak; they won those games by an average of 12.8 points per game. Portland will be playing just their fifth home game over their last sixteen games, so we can be sure they’ll bring a top effort. The Trail Blazers also have revenge after losing by 14 points in Phoenix in their last meeting. These two teams are just coming into this game from different directions, so we’ll lay the points with Portland on Friday night. 9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-). |
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04-04-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City comes in off a huge home win last night over the San Antonio Spurs. The Thunder snapped the Spurs 19-game winning streak after overcoming a halftime deficit. Oklahoma City out-scored San Antonio 58-43 in the second half after shooting 49.4% (40-81) from the field. Off that big win, Oklahoma City has to wheel right back and take to the road and face an opponent that is hungry and motivated for a win. The Thunder own three wins over Houston this season, so tonight’s game isn’t all that important to them. Oklahoma City is simply in a terrible spot for this game, and it’s quite conceivable they’ll play this game with little effort.
Houston is desperate for a win as they come in on a 3-game losing streak. The Rockets lost at home to the Clippers before heading on the road and losing in Brooklyn and in Toronto. The Rockets have been strong at home all season; Houston is 29-8 on their home court. The last time Houston lost two consecutive home games was way back in November when they were playing just their sixth and seventh games of the season. Houston has also been strong at home when playing off a road loss this season. The Rockets are 5-2 SU and ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread with the five wins coming by an average of 15.6 points per game. This is a much bigger game for Houston, so we’ll lay the points with the hungry and motivated home favorite on Friday night. 9* Play ROCKETS (-). |
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04-04-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +11.5 v. Chicago Bulls | 90-102 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Milwaukee has had an awful season; the Bucks are just 14-61 overall and 5-33 on the road. Despite those awful numbers, and with the season winding down, Milwaukee has not quit. The Bucks are still playing hard, and they’ve been competitive in their games. Over their last 24 games, Milwaukee is an incredible 20-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread. They’ve only lost four games by 12 points or more, and two of those losses came to the Miami Heat. The Bucks have given the Bulls fits all season as they won in Chicago and lost the other two games by only 1 and 9 points. Milwaukee comes in off an embarrassing loss in Miami, so we can be sure they will bring a good effort tonight, especially against a team they know they can compete with.
Chicago came into this week with the #4 seed for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 2-0 so far with wins over the Celtics at home and a road win in Atlanta. Tonight’s game is a big flat spot for Chicago because they have a huge game against the Wizards tomorrow night. The Bulls are 0-2 versus Washington this season, and with the Wizards sitting just a couple of games behind Chicago in the standings, that game is quite important. The Bulls will like to conserve their energy for the bigger game tomorrow night, so there’s a good chance they will just go thru the motions versus Milwaukee. The road team has been dominant in this series, winning nine of the last ten meetings, including eight straight. We’ll take the big points with Milwaukee in this game on Friday night. 10* Play BUCKS (+). |
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04-03-14 | Minnesota v. SMU -3 | 65-63 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Minnesota survived in overtime on Tuesday night; the Gophers beat Florida State 67-64. Minnesota won that game despite shooting just 38.9% (21-54) from the field and 64.0% (16-25) from the free throw line. The Gophers were 18-3 at home this season, but they are just 5-11 in games played away from home. Minnesota’s poor road record is attributed to their poor defense that allows 1.02 points per possession; the worst and only team of the NIT Final Four to allow over 1.00 points per possession. The Gophers won without their starting center, Elliott Eliason, on Tuesday. He is questionable to play tonight, and if he’s out, it’s unlikely Minnesota can win another game minus his presence inside the paint.
SMU should have been in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs got screwed, and because of it, they are playing with a purpose. SMU came out sluggish in the first half against Clemson on Tuesday, but we saw their true abilities when they won the second half 39-21. SMU faced some tough opponents this season, and they more than held their own. They won 76-73 at Virginia, beat Connecticut 74-65, and only lost by 8 points at Louisville. The Mustangs own the much better defense over Minnesota, and they also have the more experienced coach with Larry Brown over Richard Pitino. SMU’s defense only allows 0.92 points per possession; the best of the four teams in the NIT. SMU is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday night. 10* Play SMU (-). |
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is not in a good situational or scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Phoenix. The Clippers are playing their last game of a 5-game road trip before heading back home and hosting the Mavericks tomorrow night. Los Angeles will also play this game without Blake Griffin (back), Jamal Crawford (Achilles), and Danny Granger (hamstring). The Clippers won their last game in Minnesota without that trio, but the Timberwolves are in poor form and the Suns are a much stiffer challenge tonight. Los Angeles is satisfied with their road trip as they’ve won their last three games after opening up with a loss in New Orleans. This is one of those games in which it’s highly likely that the Clippers will simply go thru the motions and play with little effort.
Phoenix is in need of wins to secure a spot in the playoffs, and tonight’s game against the Clippers presents them a great opportunity. The Suns have been playing good basketball since getting Eric Bledsoe back on the court; Phoenix is 8-3 since Bledsoe’s return. The Suns are just 1-2 SU versus the Clippers this season, but know that Bledsoe missed the two games in which they lost and he played in the game they won. Phoenix returns home off a road loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers, and the Suns have been strong when playing at home off a road loss. The Suns are 7-3 SU in this situation this season, winning by an average of 12.4 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 11 points or more. Phoenix has had two days off since their last game, so they are fresh and ready for a peak performance. We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Wednesday night. 9* Play SUNS (-). |
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04-01-14 | Minnesota v. Florida State -1 | 64-67 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Minnesota and Florida State played backed in early December, and the Gophers won 71-61 despite shooting an awful 34.0% (18-53) from the field. The difference in that game was Minnesota’s +15-point edge from three-point land and their 28-19 edge from the free throw line. That game was on Minnesota’s home court where things tend to go their way. The Gophers were 18-3 at home this season, but they were just 5-10 in games played away from home. Minnesota’s poor road record is attributed to their poor defense that allows 1.02 points per possession; the worst and only team of the remaining four to allow over 1.00 points per possession. The Gophers will also play tonight’s game without their starting center, Elliott Eliason, who hurt his ankle in practice. That leaves a bad defense without their rim protector, and that’s not good in this matchup.
Florida State is a different team than they were when they played Minnesota early in the season. The Seminoles now have an identity and a style of play that will cause the Gophers fits. Florida State isn’t reliant on perimeter scoring, and instead they’ve become an interior team that scores 53% of their points from 2-point range. With Minnesota missing their center, Florida State will hold a big edge inside the paint. The Seminoles hold a huge defensive edge in this game as they allow just 66.4 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land. Florida State also played a tougher schedule, and their results were impressive. They lost 82-80 in overtime to Michigan and only lost 67-66 at Florida. Florida State is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Tuesday night. 10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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04-01-14 | Clemson v. SMU -3 | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Clemson had an easy road to the NIT Final Four; the Tigers played Georgia State, Illinois, and Belmont. They were unimpressive in those three wins, especially the last two games in which they only won by a total of six points. Clemson didn’t play a tough schedule at all this season, and in fact, the Tigers played just one team that made a deep run in the NCAA tournament. They lost 63-58 at home to Virginia, but that result isn’t as good as it looks. Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace, and so does Virginia. That game figured to be a close, low-scoring defensive scrum. The Tigers’ offense is simply not good; they average just 63.7 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 30.7% shooting from three-point land. Clemson’s offense was even worse away from home as they averaged just 57.7 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.
SMU should have been in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs got screwed, and because of it, they are playing with a purpose. SMU had tougher opponents to get this far with LSU and California. SMU also played good teams tough in the regular season as they won 76-73 at Virginia, beat Connecticut 74-65, and only lost by 8 points at Louisville. The Mustangs own the better offense and the better defense over Clemson, and they also have the much better coach with Larry Brown over Brad Brownell. SMU averages 71.4 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from the field. The Mustangs’ defense only allows 0.92 points per possession; the best of the four teams remaining in the NIT. SMU is simply the better team on both ends of the court, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play SMU (-). |
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | 103-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
San Antonio and Indiana have been playing on the opposite ends of the spectrum lately. The Spurs have been unbeatable, going an incredible 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games. The Pacers have been awful as they are just 6-9 SU and 2-13 ATS over their last 15 games. However, the posted line on this game gives us tremendous value on the home underdog. The line simply reflects the recent results, but those results are somewhat skewed due the opponents played. San Antonio has played the dregs of the league with 12 of their last 17 games coming against losing teams. The Spurs have also played 11 of their last 17 games at home. Things have been greatly in San Antonio’s favor over the last month, and while their results have been impressive, they’ve been facing a slew of terrible teams.
Indiana returns home off back-to-back road losses, and that ensures we’ll get a peak effort from the Pacers tonight. Indiana is an incredible 33-4 at home this season, and the fact they are getting a handful of points in this game is simply too good to pass up, even though their recent play has been poor. The Pacers have played 10 of their last 14 games on the road, and those games were against playoff teams like the Bobcats, Rockets, Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Bulls. Clearly, Indiana has played the much tougher schedule than San Antonio recently. But with the results being so opposite, the oddsmakers were forced to inflate the spread. Indiana won at San Antonio earlier this season, and there’s no reason they can’t beat the Spurs again. We’ll take the points with Indiana in this game on Monday night. 9* Play PACERS (+). |
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03-30-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | 98-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Memphis has gone unnoticed, but the Grizzlies have been playing good basketball for some time now. The Grizzlies are 17-7 SU over their last 24 games, and they come into tonight’s game off a loss at Golden State. Memphis has not lost back-to-back games since February 5th, and that means they are a perfect 7-0 their last seven games when playing off a SU loss. Memphis gave up 100 points to the Warriors in their last game, and that snapped an 11-game streak in which they’ve held an opponent to less than 100 points. The Grizzlies’ defense is strong, and off the poor effort, we expect a bounce back performance tonight. Over their last five games, Memphis has allowed just 88.2 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field. Memphis is 2-0 against Portland this season, and the Grizzlies are 6-1 SU versus the Blazers in the last seven meetings. The Grizzlies hold a huge edge on the second unit as Portland’s bench leaves a lot to be desired.
Portland is not in a good scheduling spot for tonight’s game. The Blazers are returning home from a 5-game road trip that began in Charlotte and ended in Chicago. Portland is playing their fifth game of the week, and they are doing it over a 9-day span. Portland is facing a Memphis team that they simply match-up poorly against. Portland is a team that needs to play fast while scoring lots of points to be at their best. But Memphis plays at an extremely slow place, and their defense usually holds teams to less than 100 points; Memphis has held 30 of their last 35 opponents to less than 100 points. Portland is just 7-13 SU this season when held to less than 100 points, so we’ll take Memphis plus the points in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play GRIZZLIES (+). |
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03-30-14 | Kentucky -2 v. Michigan | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Kentucky beat us in their win over Louisville, and we have to give them credit for coming back from a deficit over the final three minutes of the game. The Wildcats have continued their success that began in the SEC tournament after head coach John Calipari made some adjustments. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning five of six games with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament: “You’ll see a different team when you watch Friday.” The players were also on the same page: “I think we’re just going to be playing a lot better,” said James Young. Willie Cauley-Stein added: “That swagger was coming back to our team.” Kentucky’s defense has been outstanding since Calipari made the changes; they’ve allowed just 63.3 points per game on 44.6% (136-305) shooting from the field. Kentucky has played the toughest opponents in the tournament according to my power ratings, and they are actually taking a major step-down in class in this game.
Michigan’s path to the Elite 8 was easy as the Wolverines faced a slew of low-rated teams. My power ratings had Michigan’s opponents rated the lowest when averaged out, and they are facing a Kentucky team rated much higher than any team they’ve played in quite some time. Despite the favorable opponents, Michigan has not been too impressive. They hung on to beat Tennessee by just 2 points (73-71), and they struggled with Texas more than their 14-point win would suggest. Michigan has a woeful interior defense with 60% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range. Kentucky scores 54% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint. Michigan’s offensive strength is shooting the three (36% of their points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is strong (26% of points allowed), holding opponents to just 31.8% shooting from three-point land. Kentucky is a poor match-up for Michigan, and we expect the Wildcats to win game much easier than expected. 10* Play KENTUCKY (-). |
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03-30-14 | Connecticut +6 v. Michigan State | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Connecticut has been impressive in the tournament, and we expect them to be a tough out for Michigan State this afternoon. The Huskies survived overtime against St. Joseph’s in their first game, and then they beat a very good Villanova team quite easily. Connecticut then stifled a high-scoring Iowa State team in their last game, holding the Cyclones to just 26 points in the first half. Connecticut plays solid defense, and they actually have a better defense than Michigan State. The Huskies only give up 0.92 points per possession while the Spartans give up 0.96 points per possession. Overall, Connecticut allows just 64 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land. Connecticut did beat Florida back in December; only one other team beat the Gators this season.
Michigan State has played better basketball over the last couple of weeks, and the Spartans have become a public and media favorite. There’s no doubt that Michigan State has a talented team now that they are fully healthy, but the Spartans are overvalued in this game. My power ratings make Michigan State just a 3.5-point favorite, and that’s after adjusting for strength of schedule. On raw power ratings alone, Connecticut and Michigan State would be a Pick'em. The Spartans are also off a grinder against Virginia, and there is reason to expect a bit of a letdown in this game. Virginia was the #1 seed, and the Spartans may get caught looking ahead to the Final Four after beating the Cavaliers and now facing a #7 seed in Connecticut. We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Connecticut on Sunday afternoon. 9* Play CONNECTICUT (+). |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | 64-63 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has been very good to us in their last two games. We had Best Bets on the Badgers in their wins against Oregon and Baylor, but tonight, we
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03-29-14 | New Orleans Pelicans +13.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 80-96 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
New Orleans is in good current form right now. The Pelicans have won five consecutive games, six of their last seven games, and nine of their last twelve games overall. Their three losses were all close with the margins of defeat coming by 8 points or less. That means New Orleans is on a perfect 12-0 ATS run based on tonight
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03-29-14 | Dayton v. Florida -10 | 52-62 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Dayton has caught lightning in a bottle during their tournament run, but we expect their journey to end tonight. Dayton was a questionable at-large selection, and according to my power ratings, the Flyers should not have been selected for the tournament. Dayton was lucky to survive the first weekend after beating Ohio State by a single point (60-59) and beating Syracuse by 2 points (55-53). The Flyers then played another surprise team in the Sweet 16, and they beat Stanford 82-72. Dayton
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03-28-14 | Michigan State v. Virginia +2.5 | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Michigan State has played better basketball over the last couple of weeks, and the Spartans have become a public and media favorite. There
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03-28-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville -4 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Kentucky is certainly playing better basketball now, but the Wildcats are taking on a Louisville team that is #1 in my power ratings. Kentucky beat a mediocre Kansas State team 56-49 in their first tournament game, and they followed that with a solid 78-76 win over Wichita State. We had a Best Bet on Kentucky in that upset win as they simply matched up extremely well versus the Shockers. The Wildcats
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03-28-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | 91-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Portland is in the midst of a tough week with five games on the schedule. The Blazers
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03-27-14 | UCLA v. Florida OVER 137 | 68-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
UCLA is in their first year under head coach Steve Alford who replaced Ben Howland. The Bruins program was stale under Howland, and his style of play did not fit the personnel. UCLA played slow, half-court basketball and they struggled. Under Alford, UCLA picked up the pace significantly this season, and the players loved the change.
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03-27-14 | UCLA +5 v. Florida | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
UCLA won their first two games of the tournament quite easily. The Bruins beat Tulsa 76-59 in their opening game, and then they took care of Stephen F. Austin 77-60. UCLA is certainly taking a big step-up in class tonight against Florida, but the Bruins play a style of basketball that gave the Gators fits this season. UCLA has an efficient offense that plays at an extremely fast pace, and we expect them to dictate the tempo in this game. UCLA averages 81.5 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land. UCLA
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03-27-14 | Baylor v. Wisconsin -3.5 | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Baylor was certainly impressive in their first two tournament games. The Bears had to face a well-coached, extremely slow-paced Nebraska team first. Baylor cruised in that game and they ultimately won 74-60 with the deciding factor being a 48-16 attempts edge from the free throw line which resulted in a +28 point differential. Baylor then faced Creighton, and they simply crushed the Bluejays from the opening tip, winning by 30 points (85-55). Baylor shot an incredible 63.8% (30-47) from the field and a whopping 61.1% (11-18) from three-point land. As good as Baylor has looked, they are taking a major step-up in class against Wisconsin, and they have little shot at repeating their last offensive performance. Baylor is the worst team left in the field according to my power ratings, and their tournament run ends right here.
Wisconsin crushed American by 40 points (75-35) in their first game, and the Badgers made a big comeback to beat Oregon 85-77. The Badgers chose to run with Oregon for some reason, and that decision was strange for a good coach like Bo Ryan. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace, and we expect them to get back to their defensive ways in this game. Wisconsin |
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03-26-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans +7 | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is an impressive 13-1 over their last fourteen games, and they are simply playing some terrific basketball. However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for the Clippers. They
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03-26-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Charlotte Bobcats -2 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Brooklyn has been one of the better teams in the NBA since the start of the New Year. The Nets are 27-11 SU in 2014, but they
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03-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Toronto will play four games this week, including three on the road. The Raptors play in Cleveland tonight, and then they
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03-24-14 | Princeton +3 v. Fresno State | 56-72 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Princeton has quietly had a terrific season; the Tigers come into tonight
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03-24-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks +2.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Phoenix is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight
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03-23-14 | Memphis v. Virginia -6 | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
Memphis outlasted George Washington on Friday night to win 71-66; two made free throws with 0.7 seconds left gave the Tigers the pointspread cover. Memphis takes a big step-up in class against Virginia, and the Tigers will also be facing a style of play that gives them fits. Memphis has a talented team, but their best efforts came against teams who like to play at a fast pace. Memphis is at their best when they can get up and down the court, but they won
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03-23-14 | Stephen Austin +9 v. UCLA | 60-77 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Stephen F. Austin was fortunate to win their game on Friday night against VCU. The Lumberjacks were down 4 points, but sent the game to overtime after they hit a three while getting fouled. That only came after VCU missed a pair of free throws. The Lumberjacks won 77-75 in overtime, and that was their 29th consecutive win. Stephen F. Austin is a veteran team that plays hard on each and every possession, and they play suffocation half-court defense. The Lumberjacks turn their opponents over at a high rate; they rank second in the country in turnover percentage. Stephen F. Austin plays slow, half-court basketball; they
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03-23-14 | Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Kentucky was not playing well prior to the SEC tournament, and head coach John Calipari made some adjustments before their game against LSU. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning three of four games with their lone loss coming by just a single point (61-60) versus the #1 team in the country, Florida. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament:
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03-22-14 | Connecticut v. Villanova -3.5 | 77-65 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Connecticut survived overtime against St. Joseph
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03-22-14 | Oregon v. Wisconsin -5 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show | |
Oregon was a team we played on quite often down the stretch. The Ducks held a lot of value towards the end of the regular season after slumping thru a 2-8 stretch from January to February. The Ducks snapped out of their funk, and they
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03-22-14 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Florida | 45-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh opened the season at 18-2, but the Panthers hit a rough patch beginning in mid-January. The Panthers went just 2-5 over a 7-game stretch, and they were the forgotten team after losing to teams like Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, and North Carolina. The Panthers have regained their early season form as they
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03-21-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Phoenix Suns OVER 217 | 92-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Detroit is playing out the string, and because of that, the Pistons are giving little effort on the defensive end of the court, especially on the road. Detroit has allowed 101 points or more in eleven consecutive road games, and that streak is definitely going to extend tonight. In those eleven games, the Pistons have allowed an average of 112.6 points per game. Overall, Detroit
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03-21-14 | Denver Nuggets +8.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 106-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Denver is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Nuggets are 4-1 over their last five games and 6-5 over their last eleven games. Denver
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03-21-14 | Cal Poly SLO v. Wichita State -16 | 37-64 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
Cal Poly SLO is quite fortunate to be playing in the NCAA tournament. The Mustangs were just 10-19 heading into their conference tournament, and they were just 2-9 SU in their previous eleven games. Cal Poly won all three tournament games to earn the automatic NCAA bid, and they capped things off with an 81-69 win over Texas Southern on Wednesday night. The 81 points scored is their season-high; they shot 56.9% (29-51) from the field and 40.0% (6-15) from three-point land. That game was an anomaly and we expect the Mustangs to get a dose of reality in this game versus Wichita State. The Mustangs were just one of three teams to make the tournament with a negative offense/defense ratio in points per possession, and teams with that profile often get blown out. Cal Poly is my lowest rated team in the field of 68, and we expect them to play to that rating in this game, especially coming off their last game.
Wichita State went a perfect 34-0 this season, yet the Shockers are getting no respect. Many pundits have said they did not deserve a #1 seed, and to us, that is just ridiculous. Wichita State played in the Final Four last year, and they returned the majority of those players. This is a big statement game for the Shockers, and we expect them to win this game by as many points as they can in order to silence their critics. Wichita State plays efficient offense and stout defense, and they simply dominated weak teams like Cal Poly this season. The Shockers average 74.9 points per game while giving up only 59.9 points per game. To compare, Cal Poly averages 62.6 points per game while allowing 64.9 points per game. This game is a complete mismatch, and we expect Wichita State to make a loud statement with a blowout win on Friday night. 10* Play WICHITA STATE (-). |
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03-21-14 | George Washington +3 v. Memphis | 66-71 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
George Washington and Memphis are equal teams across the board, and according to my power ratings, this game should be a pick. The only reason Memphis is laying points in this game is because of their name and reputation. George Washington had a terrific season as they come in with a 24-8 record. The Colonials beat Creighton on a neutral court, and that win certainly shows this team can play. George Washington also played a slightly tougher schedule than Memphis overall, so the fact they have similar statistical numbers is meaningful. The Colonials play at a slower pace than Memphis, and they play solid defense. George Washington allows just 66.9 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land. They come in off a poor defensive effort against VCU, but with five days to prepare, we expect a bounce back effort in this game.
Memphis was hit or miss this season. The Tigers have a talented team, but their best efforts came against the better teams who like to play at a fast pace. Memphis is at their best when they can get up and down the court, but they won |
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03-21-14 | Oklahoma State v. Gonzaga +3 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State was a team that we used often down the stretch. The Cowboys held a lot of value after slumping thru a 7-game losing streak and losing their best player, Marcus Smart, for three games due to a suspension. But we
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03-21-14 | Tennessee -4 v. Massachusetts | 86-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
Tennessee
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03-20-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Villanova -16.5 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being in the NCAA tournament despite their 21-13 record. The Panthers stole the Horizon League bid when they won four conference tournament games, including the final on Wright State
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03-20-14 | Arizona State +2 v. Texas | 85-87 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
Arizona State and Texas are equal teams across the board, and according to my power ratings, this game should be a pick. The Sun Devils are getting a couple of points, and that gives us enough value to take the underdog in this game. Arizona State went 21-11 on the season, but they finished in poor form by losing five of their last seven games. The Sun Devils are well-coached by Herb Sendek, and his style plays well in tournament basketball, especially when he
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03-20-14 | NC State v. St. Louis -2.5 | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
NC State had no business getting into the tournament, let alone win a game. But the Wolfpack beat Xavier by 15 points (74-59) on Tuesday night, and they
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03-20-14 | American +14 v. Wisconsin | 35-75 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
American is an unknown team from the Patriot League, and they are facing one of the better teams from the Big 10. However, the Eagles can play basketball and we expect them to hang tough in this game against Wisconsin. Head coach Mike Brennan is a former Georgetown assistant and he plays that same slow, half-court style of basketball that is successful in tournaments. Brennan was also an assistant at American when they took a #2 and a #3 seed to the wire in back-to-back tournaments. American has a solid defense that only allows 58.6 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land.
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03-19-14 | Indiana Pacers -2 v. New York Knicks | 86-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Indiana was in poor form when they slumped thru a 4-game losing streak two weeks ago. But since then, the Pacers have gotten back to their good form, and they
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03-18-14 | Utah -1 v. St Mary's CA | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Utah was a much improved team this season, and tonight
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03-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Phoenix is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight
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03-16-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 207.5 | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Golden State has lost their last two games, so they
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03-16-14 | Kentucky +6.5 v. Florida | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky was not playing well coming into the SEC tournament, and head coach John Calipari made some adjustments prior to their last two games. Those changes have paid off big with the Wildcats winning their last two games by 18 and 12 points. Calipari was correct when he said these words prior to the start of the tournament:
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03-15-14 | Indiana Pacers -5 v. Detroit Pistons | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Indiana did not play good basketball last week as the Pacers slumped thru a 4-game losing streak. The four losses were all forgivable because they came against playoff-bound teams like the Warriors, Bobcats, Rockets, and Mavericks. Indiana has won back-to-back games since, including last night
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03-15-14 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin | Top | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Michigan State came into the Big 10 tournament with a purpose, and we saw that yesterday in their 67-51 dismantling of Northwestern. Usually, Tom Izzo and the Spartans care less about this tournament. But with the up and down season Michigan State had because of injuries and suspensions, they are taking this tournament much more serious. Izzo actually said:
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03-15-14 | Tennessee +7.5 v. Florida | 49-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Tennessee
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03-14-14 | Baylor -1 v. Texas | 86-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Texas crushed West Virginia by 17 points (66-49) last night. The Longhorns shot the ball well as they hit 48.9% (22-45) from the field and 41.2% (7-17) from three-point land. West Virginia
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03-14-14 | Denver Nuggets +11 v. Miami Heat | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Denver is playing much better basketball right now despite what their win/loss record shows. The Nuggets are just 3-4 SU over their last seven games, but their four losses have come by 6, 4, 7, and 4 points in overtime. Denver could very well be on a perfect 7-0 SU run with a little luck, and the value remains on this team because of the losing results. Denver
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03-14-14 | LSU v. Kentucky -4.5 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
LSU played last night and they beat Alabama 68-56. The Tigers shot the ball extremely well as they hit 50.0% (27-54) from the field and 50.0% (11-22) from three-point land. LSU was fortunate that they shot the ball so well because they fouled way too much, and they game Alabama a 26-9 free throw attempts edge which resulted in a -11-point (14-3) deficit from the line. LSU must now play on a back-to-back set while stepping up in competition. We do not expect LSU to repeat their shooting performance from yesterday, especially from beyond the arc. The Tigers are only 10-10 SU over their last twenty games, and they
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03-14-14 | Richmond v. VCU -8.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
These two teams just played a week ago with Virginia Commonwealth winning 56-50 at Richmond. We had a Best Bet on VCU in that game, and we
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03-13-14 | Memphis -2.5 v. Connecticut | 53-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Memphis and Connecticut are both in the NCAA tournament, so this game is not that important in the big picture. However, tonight
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03-13-14 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +3.5 | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston comes in off a big 106-98 loss at Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. The Rockets were quite focused on that game as they had lost in blowouts to the Thunder twice earlier in the season. Off that disappointing loss, we expect Houston to play with a bit of a hangover tonight, and they get no favors in the opponent they will face. Houston is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best. The Rockets have been held to less than 100 points 17 times this season; they are just 4-13 SU and ATS based on tonight
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03-13-14 | Baylor +2 v. Oklahoma | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Baylor needs to win as many games as possible in order to secure their spot in the NCAA tournament. The Bears beat a weak TCU team last night, but their competition gets much stiffer tonight. Baylor will play Oklahoma for the third time this season, and while the Bears lost both of those games, we expect a different outcome tonight. Baylor was in poor form when they faced Oklahoma; the Bears were in the midst of a 2-8 stretch when they played those games. Despite being in poor form, the Bears only lost by 2 points at home and they trailed by just 8 points deep in the second half on the road. Baylor is in much better form now as they
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03-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 90-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Portland was facing a terrible match-up last night in Memphis, and we won a Best Bet going against the Trail Blazers. But tonight
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03-12-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Charlotte played a brutal schedule over the last two weeks with games against elite teams like San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Miami, Indiana, and Memphis. The Bobcats
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03-12-14 | Denver Nuggets -1.5 v. Orlando Magic | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Denver is playing much better basketball right now despite what their win/loss record shows. The Nuggets are just 2-4 SU over their last six games, but their four losses have come by 6, 4, 7, and 4 points in overtime. Denver could very well be on a perfect 6-0 SU run with a little luck, and the value remains on this team because of the losing results. Denver is finally getting some class relief against a bad Orlando team that is just 19-46 on the season. The Nuggets have been facing the elite teams of the West, and their recent opponents from the East are also playoff bound. Denver crushed Orlando by 26 points (120-94) earlier this season, and there
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03-12-14 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -8.5 | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Texas Tech is just 14-17 on the season, and their only hope to get to the Big Dance is to win the Big 12 tournament. They have no shot in doing that, especially since we expect them to lose their opening game big. The Red Raiders have been much better at home (11-6) than on the road (3-11) this season. Texas Tech is giving up 71.2 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land away from home. Texas Tech was crushed by 22 points at Oklahoma State last month, and we don
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03-11-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | 104-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
San Antonio has been playing good basketball since the All-Star Break. However, the Spurs have been extremely fortunate as they
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03-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Portland is not in good current form right now. The Trail Blazers have lost back-to-back games and three of their last four games overall. Things don
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03-11-14 | Houston Rockets +4 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Houston came out of the All-Star Break on a mission as they are 8-2 SU in the ten games they
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat OVER 204 | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Washington is playing some outstanding basketball right now, especially their offense. The Wizards have won eight of their ten games since the All-Star Break, and a big reason for their winning ways has been the play of their offense. Washington has scored 104 points or more in six consecutive games while averaging 115.5 points per game. The Wizards are shooting 50.6% from the field and 42.7% from three-point land. As good as their offense has been, their defense has been poor. Over their last five games, the Wizards are giving up 108 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field. Washington has allowed 107, 103, and 129 points in their last three road games, and we expect another poor defensive performance from the Wizards in this game.
Miami comes into tonight on a 3-game losing streak. All three of those games were on the road, so a return home should spark the Heat. Miami |
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03-09-14 | Denver Nuggets +1.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | 107-111 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Denver has played much better basketball over the past week. Since the beginning of March, the Nuggets are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS with their two losses coming by just 6 and 4 points. Three of their four opponents were strong teams from the West, including the Blazers, Timberwolves, and Mavericks. The Nuggets finally have point guard Ty Lawson back on the court, and since his return, the team has been competitive. Denver
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03-09-14 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -2.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Michigan State notched a big 86-76 home win over Iowa on Thursday night. But that win doesn
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03-08-14 | North Carolina v. Duke -7 | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
North Carolina is on a major roll right now as the Tar Heels have ripped off 12 consecutive wins. One of those wins came at home over Duke when the Tar Heels overcame a 37-30 halftime deficit to win 74-66 as 2-point home underdogs. North Carolina got a favorable home whistle in that game as they held a 31-12 free throw attempts edge which resulted in a 13-point (20-7) edge from the line. That is not going to happen tonight, especially with this game on Duke
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03-08-14 | Richmond v. Dayton -9.5 | Top | 48-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Richmond was a play-against for us in their last game, and we
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