Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford. Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals. Miami won the first go around in 2020 while the Celtics took care of business last year. Boston has had a tendency to play loose at home in the playoffs, and coming off that historic game 7 win, I see them having a letdown here. Miami will be rested and ready to go, looking to steal one here. In the four meeting between the two this year, three were decided by less than the spread for this game. This spread seems too big, so take the Heat here getting the points. |
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05-10-23 | Heat +3.5 v. Knicks | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have been beasts against the spread, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. That includes all four games of this series. Also, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York. Likewise, the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. I have to stick with the battle-tested Heat in this one to continue their streak of ATS wins. They have been here before and know how to win on the road. Now, I actually think the Knicks find a way to pull this game out, but it will be a slim margin and the Heat will cover. Take Miami here. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are primed to get back into the win column as they return home and there's little doubt that they'll return to their games one and two form. Denver has been dominant at home this season and considering how strong their depth has been in those home games, that is sure to be a massive advantage in this one. They won't let Booker and Durant continue to beat them and with little help beyond those two on Phoenix, keeping pace will be difficult for the Suns. Additionally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have largely outplayed the Sixers in this series, yet here we are, tied at 2 games apiece. The series shifts back to Boston and after a bitter, bitter defeat on Sunday afternoon in game 4, the Celtics will come out fired up and focused. They went from taking complete control of this series and having a chance to close it out to now facing a critical game where a loss would result in an elimination game in Philly. After losing game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round last year, and needing to win games 6 and 7 to advance, I can't see history repeating itself here. Take the Celtics here. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors might not win this game outright but they will find a way to be in it going into the final seconds. Curry continues to be elite but he'll find a way to get the supporting cast far more involved in this one. Steve Kerr did a great job after Davis' game-one dominance to make adjustments and there's no doubt that he'll be able to find a way to disrupt him again in game four. The supporting cast showed up for the Lakers in game three but given their own inconsistencies, it'll be expected to see a drop-off, especially with confidence high. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Suns | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver might be hitting the road but they have a great chance to make it a 3-0 series lead and will at least keep it close in this one. They have far too much depth for Phoenix to run away with the game, even at home. Jokic and Murray continue to be one of the best duos in the league and their ability to dictate the game and generate efficient offense, will keep them within a possession without a doubt. Expect the offensive and defensive glass to be key as well, especially considering how strong the Nuggets have looked in that department. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference semifinals and are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings against Denver. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The idea of the Lakers winning two in a row in such a short time frame, at the Chase Center, doesn't add up, as the Warriors will come away with the win to even the series. The Lakers had a great gameplan in using Lebron in unique ways but the Warriors now have that tape and there's no doubt that the defense will be better prepared. The frontcourt mismatch was expected to land in the Lakers' favor but with the way Looney has been playing, there's no doubt both teams have the ability to hit the offensive and defensive glass. Expect Golden State's depth to be too much for LA in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games, while the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides. |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -9 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 128-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns -12 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver. |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points. |
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04-23-23 | Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win. |
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04-20-23 | Kings +6 v. Warriors | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks +6 v. Cavs | 90-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With how New York has performed this season in this matchup, there's no reason to think that they won't at least keep things competitive in this one. Their balance in the frontcourt and backcourt is crucial, especially when compared to Cleveland's struggles last game. New York's depth seems to be an advantage but having to win two games in a row overall might be too much to ask. Expect the Knicks to focus on the defensive end and slowing the game down, which might not serve them well in the result but will allow them to stay right within striking distance as the game comes to a close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, while also sitting 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Cleveland overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -10 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Until they got sloppy in the second half, the Celtics' offense was able to get whatever they wanted. Brown and Tatum's drives to the basket went unchallenged and the Celtics consistently found themselves with open looks from long range. Atlanta's inability to consistently shoot the three will ultimately do them in against a Celtics team that shoots the 3pt shot at the second-highest rate in the NBA. The Hawks, for their part, shoot the highest percentage of two-point shots in the NBA. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Boston's Al Horford, and Rob Williams III consistently met players at the rim and altered their shots on Saturday. The pair combined for three of Boston's seven shot blocks in the game. Look for Boston to establish both Brown and Tatum going to the basket, which will again open up their shooting from long range. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets simply don't have the star power to keep up with this 76ers team, especially not on the road. They have some fantastic players, but nobody on that team is going to take over a game the way that Joel Embiid or James Harden can. Playing on the road against a 76ers team that's superb at home, the Nets don't stand a chance. We've seen them fall to Philly five times already between the regular season and game one, and this game should go the same way. The 76ers control the game and take a 2-0 lead in the series. |
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04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | 80-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has at least sharpened their edge as they have played twice since the end of the regular season. That is a double-edged sword as it has helped keep the rust off but it has added extra wear and tear to key players in the rotation. Denver was on cruise control over the final month or so of the season as they held the advantage for both the Northwest Division and the top spot in the Western Conference. That gave the Nuggets the ability to rest some of their key players, like two-time reigning MVP Jokic, and prepare for the postseason run. Denver was a sparkling 34-7 at home this season while the Timberwolves were 20-21 as the road team on the year. Give the Nuggets the upper hand in this contest as the rest factor works in their favor. |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It will be interesting to see how the Heat chooses to defend Antetonkoumnpo. They could defend him with Adebayo but that might force the team's best rebounder to the bench with foul trouble. Butler, arguably the Heat's best defender, doesn't have the length to cover the Greek Freak and I'm not sure Spoelstra will want to wear out his best offensive player by covering Antetonkoumnpo all night. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to dominate the first game. Milwaukee exposed the Heat's other defenders this season on the perimeter, nailing over 18 3pt field goals per matchup. Miami will adjust but that adjustment will likely come after a substantial game-one loss. This will be the first time all season that the Heat will face the Bucks at full strength and the combination of Antetonkoumnpo and Middleton will be too much for them. Don't discount the ability of Holiday to take his man in the paint for easy buckets as well. Beyond Adebayo and Butler, the Heat do not possess quality man-to-man defenders. |
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04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics provide several difficult matchups for a Hawks' team that struggles against athletic wings. Both Tatum and Brown will be able to get what they want both going to the rim and on the perimeter and that will force the Hawks to send help to both matchups. This will create tons of good looks from long range for a Celtics team that has thrived on the 3pt shot. The Celtics averaged over 22 3pt field goals per game against Atlanta this season, shooting over 46%, which indicates the Hawks' difficulty with keeping up with the Celtics' inside-out offense. Young will get his points in this series but Boston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up multiple players, Marcus Smart and White, to make him work for those points. Murray was not as effective against the Celtics this year thanks to Boston's length at the wing position. Williams III can neutralize Capella on the glass as well and the Hawks simply don't have the depth to match Boston. |
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04-09-23 | Clippers -12.5 v. Suns | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is an absolute no brainer. As it stands right now, the Suns look like they are going to rest all of their star players - Durant, Paul, Booker and Ayton. So, expect a lot of big minutes from bench players. The Clippers should be playing everyone, because they will need this to lock down a top 6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in. The Lakers and Warriors are both playing at the same time. There is some question as to whether teams will avoid the fifth seed to avoid the Suns, but no one wants to be 7th either. I love the Clippers here. Take the Clippers to win and cover. |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -16.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight home games against Portland, and I do not expect that trend to end on Saturday afternoon. The Trail Blazers enter this game with no motivation, as they are resting almost all of their key players and are already eliminated from playoff contention. Los Angeles is as motivated as any team in the NBA, as it needs a win to avoid the play-in tournament. The Clippers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and should continue their dominance on Saturday. Portland has only picked up one win in its last eight games and is not playing competitive basketball without Lillard. |
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04-08-23 | Nuggets v. Jazz +6.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Throw out all the stats and trends for this game, because you are going to see two teams playing deep bench players. It will basically be like a summer league game. So, any trends I might be able to dig up would not be relevant as they don't pertain to the players who are going to be out on the court for this one. So, I'm going to defer here to the home team. The Jazz are in front of their home fans, the ones that show up for this meaningless game, that is, and that should be enough to push them to a win. Take the Jazz here to win and cover. |
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04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -8.5 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't love backing the Mavs, but it's now or never for them. With Dallas still competing for a play-in spot and the Bulls' postseason hopes already decided, the Mavericks have a strong advantage. Expect to see the Bulls give a lot of minutes and opportunities to players outside of their big three. I expect Chicago to play hard, but they have dropped two straight games by double-digits, and with Dallas' season on the line, I expect them to pull away for a big win. |
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04-07-23 | Raptors +1 v. Celtics | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one of the two teams in this matchup has anything to gain from a win. Toronto will trot out their regular lineup in this one while I expect the Celtics to rest more than at least one of their key players. Toronto has a lot to gain by potentially catching the Hawks in the standings. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season but a far more respectable 26-14 at home. Look for Toronto to control the pace and take advantage of a depleted Celtics roster. |
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04-06-23 | Thunder -6.5 v. Jazz | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have struggled of late and that is why we enter the final days of the season with one team fighting to hang on for the final playoff spot in the West and the other fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Injury issues and the trades that Utah made at the deadline may have bolstered their chances for the future but made things tougher for making the postseason. Oklahoma City is at as close to full strength as they have been in the last couple of months here and they have to be motivated. The Thunder took the last two meetings between the teams last month, both at home: they make it three straight and eliminate the Jazz from playoff contention, with a win here. |
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04-04-23 | Nuggets -9 v. Rockets | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They do a good job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets aren’t very good defensively and gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Rockets have lost eight of their last nine games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but they’ve been attacking the offensive glass relentlessly in recent games, so expect them to get extra-scoring chances. They have been very careless with the ball, even at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who averaged more than eight steals per game in their last three games. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding their last three opponents under 107 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
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04-04-23 | Celtics +2 v. 76ers | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Eastern Conference play today. The 76ers are 8-6 against the rest of their division. Philadelphia averages 115.1 points while outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game. The Celtics are 9-4 in division play. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference with 35.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Jayson Tatum averaging 7.8. The teams meet for the fourth time this season. The Celtics won 110-107 in the last matchup on Feb. 26. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points, and Embiid led the 76ers with 41 points. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee lost to Boston on Thursday, but that may be good news for Bucks fans, as this team has not lost back-to-back games since January 12-14. They have been consistently the best team in the NBA over the last 10 weeks, and that is bad news for a 76ers team that enters this game as losers of their last three games on the road. The Milwaukee defense has been struggling of late, but they are averaging 124.8 points per game over their last five, and Philadelphia simply does not take enough shots to take advantage of the defensive lapses of the Bucks. Philadelphia has won the last two meetings between these teams, including earning a three-point victory over Milwaukee on March 4. Look for the Bucks to get a little revenge. |
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04-02-23 | Lakers -11 v. Rockets | 134-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles is currently 7th in the Western Conference playoff standings and would take part in the play-in part of the postseason but is within 1 ½ games of sixth place which would mean they would not have to take part in the play-in. At the same time, Los Angeles is only 1 ½ games in front of the 10th and final spot for postseason qualification in the West. Therefore, the Lakers have far more incentive to win than Houston, which has been eliminated from playoff contention and is last in the Western Conference. Houston's offense and defense has struggled all season as the Rockets are next to last in scoring and second from last in points allowed. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five. |
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04-01-23 | Mavs +1.5 v. Heat | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs. |
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03-31-23 | Nuggets +9.5 v. Suns | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
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03-31-23 | Hawks v. Nets | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless. |
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03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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03-24-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -13 | 114-151 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. |
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03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here. |
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03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -13 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA. |
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03-20-23 | Warriors -11 v. Rockets | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season. |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks -8 | 140-134 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover. |
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03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup. |
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03-17-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-120 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them. |
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03-17-23 | 76ers -10.5 v. Hornets | 121-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. |
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03-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -13 | 139-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip. |
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03-16-23 | Nuggets v. Pistons +15 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday. |
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03-15-23 | 76ers v. Cavs +2.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win. |
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03-14-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction. |
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03-13-23 | Celtics -12.5 v. Rockets | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home |
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03-11-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
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03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
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03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
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03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |
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03-07-23 | Warriors v. Thunder +4.5 | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s getting nitty-gritty time for the Thunder who find themselves 1.5 games back of the 10th and final playoff seed in the Western Conference at press time. The good news is they will carry a double revenge chip on their shoulders into this contest from a pair of setbacks they suffered at the hands of the Warriors in January and February earlier this year. And they’ll do so on a home court where they stood 18-12 SUATS this season at press time. Better yet, the big boom is 4-1-1 ATS this season when seeking same season revenge from a 20-plus point same-season defeat while the Dubs are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS away on Tuesdays. With Goldie arriving off a revenge tussle with the Lakers, there's only one way to look here. |
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03-07-23 | Bucks -7 v. Magic | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee finally lost a game over the weekend, but the Bucks immediately got back on track. They also held a big lead in their loss to the 76ers, so they could easily be riding an 18-game winning streak right now. I am not ready to fade them at this point, as they have covered the spread at an 8-2-2 clip in their last 12 games. They have also covered in four of their last five games against Orlando, cruising to a 22-point win as 8-point favorites when these teams met last week. I don’t see any reason why the Magic will be better prepared to cover the spread this time around, especially with Milwaukee facing a tight battle for the No. 1 seed. |
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03-06-23 | Raptors v. Nuggets -6 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on fire, winning 11 of their last 14 contests, but they are not just winning games – they are dominating them. The last three opponents have been defeated by at least 10 points and they have won each of their last six games at home by at least nine points. The Nuggets are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Toronto has lost two of their last three games on the road and it took overtime to win in Washington. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on the road and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning percentage of greater than 60% at home. Denver is tough to beat already, posting the top shooting percentage in the NBA while Toronto is one of the worst teams in terms of shutting opponents down. Not a good match-up for the Raptors at all. |
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03-06-23 | Celtics v. Cavs -6.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has been one of the league’s best home teams this season, going 27-7 in its 34 outings. The Cavaliers have also covered the spread at a 21-11-2 clip in those games, so they have been an excellent betting option at home. This is another profitable spot to back them, as Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back and is going to lack energy against the top defense in the NBA. Cleveland is also coming off a strong performance against Detroit and will be motivated to get revenge for its loss to Boston last week. The Celtics are also dealing with several key injuries, giving me another reason to back Cleveland today. |
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03-05-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics | 131-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has already beaten Boston during their eight-game winning streak, winning 109-94 on February 27. That was the second straight time that they had beaten the Celtics, earning an overtime victory in Boston on January 26. While the Celtics may be higher up in the standings, New York is not the least bit intimidated by them and has been playing better basketball than Boston over the last 10 days. Right now, it is the way that New York is defeating opponents that is quite impressive. During the winning streak, they have beaten five of the eight opponents by at least 15 points, with Boston being one of those victories. The Celtics suddenly find themselves battling through a lot of close contests and look like they will be clipped in this game. |
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03-05-23 | Pacers v. Bulls -5.5 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The good news for the Windy City crew is its 8-2 ATS record in this series when seeking same season double revenge exact, including 4-0 ATS at home as well as 5-0 ATS with revenge from a most recent loss of 10 or fewer points. The recent swoon by the Bulls (2-7 SUATS previous nine games entering March) helps to make the price right today, and with it we’ll be there. Remember, the Pacers took a 5-17 SU and 9-13 ATS ledger into the month of March itself, so the Naptown arsonists arrive with a combustible warning of their own. Finally, consider that Indiana is 11-25-1 ATS away versus foes seeking same-season double revenge, including 0-4 ATS the last four games. |
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03-02-23 | Pacers -6 v. Spurs | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s very challenging to know what a win is going to do mentally and emotionally for a San Antonio team that had lost 16 straight games. I am not ready to take the leap on the Spurs just yet, though, and the betting market doesn’t appear to be either. This spread quickly moved one point towards Indiana after the opener was released, as the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 games. They have also failed to cover in six straight home games against Indiana. The Pacers have also started to round into playoff form, covering the number in four of their last five contests. |
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03-02-23 | Raptors v. Wizards +2 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a pretty good game as Porzinigis is expected to return for this one. That helps even out the length advantage that Toronto normally has. Toronto is just 11-19 on the road and while Poetl was a nice pickup, Washington faced him on Jan. 30 when Porzingis put up 17 points, nine rebounds and seven assists with five blocks in a 127-106 win over the Spurs. Toronto is not the Spurs, but here we are, with the playoffs coming up and they are still under .500. They should have done more at the trade deadline because the chemistry is obviously not working. Neither is their defensive effort. |
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02-27-23 | Magic +4 v. Pelicans | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando pulled off a 13-point victory a month ago and now heads to New Orleans looking to try to sweep the season series. Prior to that victory, the road team had won the previous four games and the road team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10. Another thing you should like is that the Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in New Orleans. While the Pelicans may win this game, 5.0 points may be a little too much for them in this contest. They have dropped three in a row and four of the last five. This team has only beaten two of their last four opponents by more than five points, so take the Magic and the points. |
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02-27-23 | Celtics v. Knicks +3 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red-hot Atlantic Division rivals collide when the Boston Celtics come to the Mecca of basketball to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Boston is on a three-game run with just a single loss in its previous eight games (7-1 ATS) while New York rides a five-game winning streak and has also only tasted defeat once in its past eight outings (6-1-1 ATS). Julius Randle has been at his best of late and while the Celtics have the NBA's best record, they'll be without Jaylen Brown. As a result, they'll be playing much smaller, leaving ample opportunity for Randle to shine down low. |
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02-27-23 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Charlotte Hornets, as they have won four games in a row and they are the better defensive team in this matchup. The Pistons are also one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. They are scoring the 27th most points per game and they are allowing the second-most points. They will continue to struggle on both ends of the court, as Charlotte will slowly pulls away. The Hornets are also scoring 112.6 points per game and they looked great against the Heat the last time they were on the floor. They will find consistent open shots throughout this game and I expect them to take advantage. They will also sprint the ball up and down the court, as they will have plenty of scoring opportunities to cover this spread. Detroit only has the 28th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing their opponents to shoot 49% from the floor. They aren't applying enough pressure, as the Hornets will make them pay. Charlotte is playing solid basketball right now. |
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02-26-23 | Rockets v. Blazers -9.5 | 114-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I’m not going to overthink this matchup. The Trail Blazers will get both Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant back, so I’m expecting Portland to beat Houston with ease. The Blazers have covered the spread in each of their previous two meetings with the Rockets, winning by 12 and 14 points. Damian Lillard will dominate the Rockets’ defense. He’s been unstoppable all season, tallying 31.4 points and 7.3 assists per game. Lillard has scored 38 or more points in seven of his previous 11 appearances. |
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02-25-23 | Spurs v. Jazz -9.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs’ losing streak will eventually come to an end, but with all the injury problems among Gregg Popovich’s team, I can’t back San Antonio in a tough road matchup against Utah. The Jazz are struggling to defend at a high level, but they should be scoring at will against this Spurs team. San Antonio is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Spurs beat the Jazz 126-122 in December, and Utah will be highly motivated to get revenge. Lauri Markkanen is poised for another strong performance, and the Jazz should make a lot of threes in this matchup. Utah is fifth in the league in triples made per 100 possessions (14.0). |
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02-25-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Philly is 24-6 SU and 22-10 ATS at home this season, and ranks No. 3 overall in the league in Team Scoring Defense. On the fl ip side, Boston’s Achilles Heel is its 28th ranked effort in Team Rebounds this season. In addition, the shamrocks were riding a 0-5 SUATS skein here in this series until the aforementioned win they scored late in the campaign last season. With the Celts coming off a same season revenge win at Indiana on Thursday, and staring dead ahead to same-season revenge rematches with the Knicks and the Cavs, we need to consider that the Sixers are 12-0 SUATS at home this season when seeking same-season loss revenge. |
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02-24-23 | Hornets v. Wolves -6.5 | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves are a sharp 3-1 SUATS at home in games when coming off three-plus days of rest, while the Stingers are just 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS in non-division games when coming off a win. However, Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five games this season when coming off one loss |
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02-24-23 | Heat +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The majority of games on tonight’s NBA game are laced with teams each playing with 8 days of rest on this post All-Star Friday. And 8 is a magic number for Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra who brings a career log of 7-1 ATS when his troops are playing with eight or more days of rest during the regular season (read: post All-Star game), including 6-0 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Foremost on their minds tonight, though, will be exacting revenge from a 123-115 loss here three weeks ago. And with it the stars should be lined in their favor. On the other side of the court Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in this series when operating on three or more days of rest. Finally, Miami is 10-1 ATS when seeking revenge from a same season defeat of fewer than 20 points when coming off a double-digit defeat and facing a foe that is coming off a double-digit win. |
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02-23-23 | Celtics -8 v. Pacers | 142-138 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics fell to Indiana back in December by seven points at the TD Garden in the only matchup between these two teams. Since then, however, the Celtics' defense has improved significantly, and they are as healthy as they've been all season heading out of the All-Star break. Indiana's poor perimeter defense will not play well to a Celtics team that is sixth in the NBA in 3pt shooting. The Celtics also have a significant advantage on the wings with the Pacers not having the types of defenders to match up with Brown or Tatum. The Celtics will also enjoy a rare, significant advantage on the glass against a Pacers team that is ranked just 21st in the NBA in total rebounding. Look for Boston's defense to stifle the Pacers and the team's perimeter shooting to bury Indiana. |
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02-15-23 | Knicks +3.5 v. Hawks | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have had this game circled ever since taking it on the chops in a 15-point loss to the Hawks earlier this season. With both teams in a virtual tie for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, this contest is paramount for New York as far as tiebreakers go concerning playoff positioning. With it, the Knickerbockers bring a studly 24-14 SU and 28-10 ATS road record into the fray since March of last season. They are also 19-11-1 ATS of late in this series, while the Hawks tend to fl y low in games against foes seeking same-season revenge of more than 10 points, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS this campaign. The numbers all point to the points, and we’ll take whatever the books are offering up tonight. |
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02-15-23 | Pistons +12.5 v. Celtics | 109-127 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I will be picking the Detroit Pistons on the road and I am going to take the points. The Boston Celtics could be without Jayson Tatum in this game and Brown and Smart are already listed as out. I just don't believe the Celtics are healthy enough to cover this spread. If they had their original starting five playing, I would hammer them. But, that isn't the case. Detroit also battled with the Raptors in their last game, as they came up just short. They will come into this game motivated and do everything they can to keep this game within the spread. These two teams also played a week back, as the Celtics won 111-99. They covered the spread, but it was extremely close. Now, they don't have three of their best players on the floor, as this will hurt Boston in this game. If Tatum ends up playing, I like the Celtics. But, he is currently listed as doubtful, so I am going to ride with the Detroit Pistons. They will show up on the road and keep this game within the spread. |
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets -4.5 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s tough to back the Spurs even though their losing streak will eventually come to an end. The Hornets just broke out of their slump and should win this game, too. With healthy LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward in the lineup, the Hornets have an excellent chance of exploiting the Spurs’ horrible defense. San Antonio is dead last in the league in opposing 3-point percentage (39.4%) and 29th in opposing 2-point percentage (57.2%). The Hornets are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings, but they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their previous four encounters with San Antonio. On the other side, the Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. |
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02-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -8.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have been awful on the road this season and they are logging their second game of a back-to-back, not to mention their third game in four nights, in this one. Meanwhile, LA has been off since Friday, giving them three days of rest and a prime opportunity to get their trade acquisitions familiarized with the system. Hyland, Plumlee and Gordon are plugging in, adding some depth at key positions in an effort to bolster the second unit for LA. The Clippers are rested and you never know what Steve Kerr will do in relation to resting guys in a back-to-back situation. With Leonard likely to be on the floor for LA, give the edge to the hosts in this contest. |
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02-13-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Bulls | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At first glance Chicago finds itself in the middle of a live division avenger sandwich, coming off a same season revenge contest with Cleveland with the same on deck against Indiana. That’s never good news when you’re hosting an avenging mad-as-hell non-division foe. Enter the sizzling hot Disney dolls who, after opening the season 5-19, were 18-14 SU and 23-9 ATS at press time. Finally, Chicago is 3-12 ATS at home in the middle of a division sandwich against non-division foes seeking same-season revenge or 6 or more points, including 1-10 ATS from game 32 out. |
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02-13-23 | Jazz v. Pacers +1.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The early betting action has been on Indiana, which is a movement that I agree with. The Pacers might be struggling right now, but they have only had Haliburton back for a few games. He completely changes the outlook of this team, which has created value on Indiana against a bad Utah team. The Jazz have not been good on the defensive end of the court, and they are facing a strong offense on Monday. They have only covered the spread once in their last five games, and they are 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 games against Indiana. |