Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -117 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease is much better at home, so it makes sense why they wanted to give him the start here. However, this should have been Carlos Rodon’s spot and that would have given the White Sox a much better chance to win. This is obviously an elimination game for the White Sox too so I think they will pull Cease at any sign of trouble. Luis Garcia was worse on the road this season, just like the Astros were at 44-37 while the White Sox were 53-28 at home. Garcia faced the White Sox once this season allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. Cease was hit hard in his first start against the Astros this season but gave up 3 ER in 5.2 IP at home. Michael Kopech and Liam Hendriks have yet to pitch in this series and the White Sox won’t have a chance if they don’t. I think the White Sox avoid the sweep at home today, but I think the Astros will end this series in Chicago. Take the White Sox to last 1 more game. |
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10-09-21 | Dodgers -112 v. Giants | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers were shut down by Logan Webb in Game 1 and while the offense is compromised without Max Muncy, there are far too many great hitters to for them to stay stifled. They led the NL in runs this season. Giants starter Kevin Gausman was very good this season, but a lot of that came early. He had a 4.42 ERA after the All-Star break. He's also been worse at home than on the road. Dodgers starter Julio Urias was better on the road and the Dodgers have won his last 11 starts overall. He had a 1.77 ERA in those outings. He also had a 2.08 ERA in three starts in Oracle Park this year, too. |
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10-09-21 | Braves +114 v. Brewers | 3-0 | Win | 114 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Both these teams actually play better on the road. The Braves had the tying run on third base yesterday before grounding out to end the game. Brandon Woodruff has pitched very well this season, but he allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP to the Braves earlier this season. He was also 0-3 with a 4.09 ERA in September. Max Fried hasn’t faced the Brewers this season but the Brewers struggle against lefties and Fried is absolutely dealing right now. He has pitched 12 straight quality starts and he has allowed 1 ER in his last 23 IP. The Brewers were tied for 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they weren’t doing much better in September ranking 22nd overall in wOBA against lefties. Take the value in the Braves. |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Webb is 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home, and he went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts vs. the Dodgers this season. LA posted a .127 on-base average against him. The Giants have won 10 of his last 11 starts. Walker Buehler is even more dominant, but he struggled in his last start at Oracle Park, giving up six runs on seven hits in three innings. The Giants went 54-27 at home and continue to be undervalued. |
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10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Shane Baz is making just his fourth career start although he did pitch well in his first three. Chris Sale will be making just his 8th career postseason appearance and 5th career postseason start so despite being the veteran he doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience. He also has a 5.76 ERA in the postseason. The Rays had the 3rd highest wOBA in the league against lefties since the start of September and they crushed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez early in Thursday’s game. Chris Sale made 3 starts on the road this season and went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. He also faced the Rays twice, pitching a quality start and getting blown up. Sale wasn’t getting deep into games either this season, and the Red Sox bullpen is very questionable while the Rays can just go to theirs whenever they need. The Rays are now 8-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 12 of the last 16 matchups straight up. Take the Rays. |
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10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -146 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves come into the playoffs red hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. They had teams like the Philadelphia and the New York Mets chasing them in the NL East, so it was like playoff baseball for them after they finally got over .500 for the first time on Aug. 6. Players acquired in trades to make up for the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) paid off. The Brewers found themselves being bored down the stretch after leading the NL Central for 137 straight days. No one truly threatened them, but they finished the regular season having lost 10 of their last 14 against teams such as St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can they simply flip the switch in the postseason? I'm on the Brewers in Game 1 because of the dominance of RHP Corbin Burnes, who is likely to win the NL Cy Young Award. While Milwaukee was sluggish in September, Burnes was still a dominant force. They won 12 straight games behind him before he worked only two innings in his last start, an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers. |
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10-08-21 | White Sox v. Astros -112 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these starting pitchers have been very good in the playoffs in their short playoff careers. Lucas Giolito has made just 1 postseason start, but he tossed a 1 run, 7 inning gem last year. Framber Valdez also made his postseason debut last year with no fans, and all he did was pitch at least 5 innings in all four starts without allowing more than 2 ER in any of them. The White Sox had the 5th best wOBA in the league against lefties this season but the Astros had the 4th best wOBA in the league against righties. Valdez faced the White Sox twice this season and allowed 2 ER in one game and 4 ER in the other while pitching 7 and 6.1 innings, respectively. Giolito faced the Astros once this season, and tossed a 1 run complete game, but it was at home. The White Sox are 40-42 now on the road this season including the postseason and they are 27-30 against teams over .500. Take the Astros at home. |
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10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -141 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was planning to stay off this game with the Rays opening at -180 but now the odds have swung enough to make a play. The Rays had been crushing left-handed pitching to end the season putting up the 3rd highest wOBA in September in the league against lefties. The Red Sox have been worse against lefties in the same time span, although they haven’t been terrible at 8th in the league. Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching well lately to just about every team but the Rays, who he allowed 6 ER in 3.2 IP to in his last matchup. Shane McClanahan has faced Boston three times this season and allowed 1 or 0 runs in 2 of the 3 games pitching at least 5 innings in all 3 starts. The Rays are 7-3 at home against the Red Sox this season and they have won 11 of the past 15 matchups straight up. The Red Sox will be riding the momentum of their Wild Card win which is the only thing I am worried about, but with the line coming down so hard there is much less risk. Take the Rays. |
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10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros -130 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16) of the Astros and Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69) of the White Sox are the scheduled starters in Game 1. McCullers pitched two of Houston's five earlier wins over the White Sox, allowing a total of just three runs and four hits in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. The Astros won those games 8-2 at home and 7-1 on the road. The 28-year-old has made six career starts against Chicago, going 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. Lynn, meanwhile, was bombed for six runs and eight hits in four innings in his only previous start against the Astros this season. The visiting White Sox were beaten 7-3. The 34-year-old has gone 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 14 lifetime appearances against Houston, 13 as a starter. |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -115 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York RHP Gerrit Cole has seriously struggled lately, but if there is anyone that can lock it in for one start, it’s him. Cole hasn’t had great success against Boston this season, but he also hasn’t been terrible. However, Cole is a different beast in the playoffs, as he owns a 2.68 ERA and has allowed more than two runs just twice in eight starts over his last two postseasons. Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi recently was hit hard by the Yankees in Boston. His only playoff experience came in 2018, when he made two starts and pitched well. I think playing on the road will settle the Yankees instead of the pressure that would come at home game if they were to trail early. Take the Yankees and their pitching staff. |
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10-03-21 | Angels v. Mariners -163 | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You may be noticing a trend here in that I'm backing all the teams with something to play for Sunday. Seattle needs a win and some help to earn a wild-card spot. The Angels are starting the awful Reid Detmers (1-3, 7.11). That's a give up. |
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10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -170 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants lost yesterday but they still win the division with a win today or a Dodgers loss and I don’t think they will squander that chance against the Padres bullpen. The Padres fired their manager yesterday and just wanna get home so if the Giants can take the lead early they should have success. Logan Webb has been the Giants best pitcher lately and he hasn’t lost a start in over 15 games. The Padres are going with a bullpen game starting with Reiss Knehr. The Giants are 22-7 in the past month, good for the best record in baseball. The Padres are 7-20 in the past month, good for the worst record in baseball. Take the Giants to clinch. |
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10-03-21 | Rays v. Yankees -121 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How much do the Rays hate the Yankees? We will find out today because Tampa Bay has squat to play for and New York everything. Honestly, I hope I get this pick wrong but I have to lean the motivated side. Yanks earn a wild-card spot with a victory. |
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10-02-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +135 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nats prized prospect Josiah Gray will be starting against Tanner Houck in what looks to be a bullpen game for the Red Sox. Josiah Gray has been very good his past couple starts and last night’s game was closer than it seemed. The Nats had the bases loaded early with no outs and couldn’t cash in and still lost by only 2 runs. The Red Sox bats have been struggling and they are once again without a DH. Take the Nats and lets hope for maximum chaos in the Wild Card. |
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10-02-21 | Padres v. Giants -155 | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants need 1 more win to cap off their season by winning the NL West and you know they don’t want it to go down to the last day. Kevin Gausman has been their best pitcher all season so it makes sense that it comes down to him to clinch. Joe Musgrove has been very good this season too, but the Padres have been the worst team in the league since September 1 and I don’t see that changing today. This is a relatively cheap price to get the Giants at home especially in a clinching scenario, take the Giants. |
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10-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | 12-2 | Loss | -124 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are starting with Jordan Montgomery but they will go with mostly a bullpen game. Shane Baz has been good for the Rays but he hasn’t faced the Yankees in a clinching scenario in the Bronx. The Yankees can clinch the playoffs with a win today and I think they’ll get it done. They have the best ERA in the AL and they are using their bullpen to their advantage today while last night it seemed like they were kind of setting their bullpen up for today. The Yankees have won 8 of 10 and while the Rays have been good in the Bronx all season, they are still worse on the road. Take the Yankees to clinch. |
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10-01-21 | Angels v. Mariners -158 | 2-1 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have the longest postseason drought in sports, and now they have to win 3 games to break it. Honestly, I thought the pressure was gonna get to them last series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does this series either. This is still a very young team, but they have also won 11 of their last 13 games while the Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. Jose Suarez has been solid since being inserted into the starting rotation but he allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his last start which was against the Mariners. Marco Gonzales is 4-0 with a 3.90 ERA in September and he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP against the Angels in his last start. It’s juicy, but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, take the Mariners. |
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10-01-21 | Mets +111 v. Braves | 4-3 | Win | 111 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves clinched the division last night so they should be sitting a lot of their players today. Huascar Ynoa also hasn’t been great since returning from the IL going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in September. Tylor Megill has struggled lately but he has pitched well against the Braves this season and he should be facing a watered down Braves lineup. The Mets haven’t been great at 11-16 in September, but this is a bet banking on the Braves starters sitting after winning the division. |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +175 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Of course we were on the Orioles the only game of the series against the Red Sox that they didn’t cover, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. However, the Red Sox are spiraling having not scored more than 3 runs in 5 of their last 6 games now. They face another lefty tonight in Josh Rogers after facing all the Orioles lefties that gave them fits. Josh Rogers has been solid for the Nats in five starts so far not allowing more than 3 runs in any of them. Eduardo Rodriguez has been decent lately but the Nats have the best wOBA in the league against lefties, and Rodriguez should get the hook at any sign of trouble. The Red Sox have been much worse on the road this season AND they lose the DH. My main worry is the Nats bullpen so Nats F5 would probably be the best play but I am taking the value in the Nats at home. |
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10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -124 | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are in no way gonna lay down in this game, but they have to look ahead. They could be facing the Yankees in the ALDS if the Yankees win the Wild Card game, so they won’t want to show their hand in these games that don’t matter for them. That doesn’t mean they aren’t gonna try, but it does mean they might go with pitchers that might not make the ALDS roster or pitch relievers in different roles. The Yankees on the other hand are 2 games up on the Wild Card, and would clinch a playoff spot if they win and either the Red Sox or Mariners lose. Shane McClanahan has been good lately but he has struggled against the Yankees when he faced them, and the Yankees have been hitting lefties well lately. Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 2.38 ERA at home and he has allowed more than 3 ER in a start just once since being inserted into the starting rotation. Take the Yankees at home. |
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09-30-21 | Phillies v. Braves -145 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Braves can clinch the division with one more win and I think they’ll do it tonight at home against the Phillies. They have won 5 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games while the Phillies have now lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 10. Kyle Gibson and the Phillies have both been worse on the road and Gibson is actually 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in September. Ian Anderson is coming off 1 ER in 7 IP in his last start and he has been solid in September. Take the Braves to clinch the division tonight. |
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09-30-21 | Rays v. Astros -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays not only clinched their division already, but they clinched home field advantage throughout the AL in the playoffs last night so they REALLY have nothing to play for. Getaway day for the Rays and they should go with a bullpen game. The Astros on the other hand still need 1 more win or 1 more Mariners loss to clinch the division, and since the Mariners don't play tonight, winning is their only chance to clinch tonight. Lance McCullers Jr. has been the Astros best starter this season, lay the juice at home. |
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09-30-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cards regulars should all be back in the lineup today as the try to build momentum for the Wild Card game and they are facing lefty Brett Anderson. The Cards have been one of the best teams in the league at hitting lefties the second half of the season. Anderson has been worse on the road and he allowed 6 runs in 1.2 IP in his last start which was against the Cards. He shouldn’t go too deep even if he does pitch well. JA Happ has been solid since a blowup game in Cincy not allowing a run in two of his last three starts. Take the Cards to win their 18th game in 19 tries. |
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09-29-21 | Phillies v. Braves -136 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Fried has been absolutely dealing lately as he is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last 7 starts and he is coming off a complete game shutout in San Diego. Aaron Nola is noticeably worse on the road and he has really struggled this season. He pitched well against the Braves last time they met, but he wasn’t too great in any of the previous matchups. He also allowed 6 ER in 6 IP against the Pirates at home last start. If the Braves win tonight, they can’t clinch the division but they can clinch at least a tie for the division. The Braves have won 4 straight and 8 of 10, take the Braves. |
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09-29-21 | Yankees -104 v. Blue Jays | 5-6 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays pitching staff is a liability while the Yankees have the best ERA in the AL right now. The Yankees have some hot hitters, mainly Giancarlo Stanton who is good for about a home run a game right now. But the Blue Jays are also running cold having won just 5 of their last 10 games. The Yankees have won 7 straight games and if they win tonight behind their ace they have the chance to clinch a Wild Card spot tomorrow. Jose Berrios pitched well against the Yankees in his first start but I think the only chance the Blue Kays have tonight is if Berrios pitches a quality start and goes at least 6 innings. The Yankees have the 3rd best record in the league the past 2 weeks at 9-3 and they are 5-1 on the road. The Blue Jays are just 6-6 the past 2 weeks and 3-2 at home. |
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09-28-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -174 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers have yet to lose a home game in September and I don’t see that happening with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight. He is coming off a rocky outing in Colorado so I think he will be juiced up for tonight. Yu Darvish has been better lately but he is still inconsistent. The Padres have been THE worst team in September going 6-16 and 2-9 on the road. The Dodgers have been the 4th best team in September going 16-7 and 7-0 at home. Take the Dodgers. |
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09-28-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals +108 | 2-6 | Win | 108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units : Interesting move by the schedule makers having these teams play again but the Cardinals just swept the Brewers in 4 games in Milwaukee before extending their franchise long win streak in Chicago to 16 games. Now they head home where you know it will be rowdy as they look to clinch the Wild Card spot with a win. Adam Wainwright gave up a first inning Grand Slam in his last start against the Brewers but he will be much more settled down at home. Brandon Woodruff allowed 6 ER in 5 IP in his last start against the Cards and he hasn’t been exceptional losing each of his last three starts despite pitching ok. If the Cards are gonna continue to be underdogs on this streak there’s no reason not to take them... at least until they clinch. |
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09-28-21 | Yankees +116 v. Blue Jays | 7-2 | Win | 116 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I hate to do this as my heart is with the Blue Jays but the Yankees are playing very good baseball right now and Giancarlo Stanton is hot. Jameson Taillon is coming off the IL to make this start but I don’t think he will have a long leash as the Yankees have a very good bullpen. Hyun Jin Ryu is also coming off the IL to make this start and he has dominated the Yankees this season. However, he has been very bad lately, and the Yankees have been crushing lefties. Rogers Centre will be rockin' tonight, but it’s not like Fenway Park wasn’t the past few days. The Yankees have won 6 straight games and the Blue Jays have lost 5 of their last 10. The wrong team is favored, take the value in the underdog. |
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09-28-21 | Cubs v. Pirates -102 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates are playing some of the best baseball in the league right now while the Cubs have lost 11 of their last 13 games and 14 of their last 18 games. The Pirates are 6-3 at home in September and Mitch Keller has been solid in September going at least 5 innings in all his starts and only allowing more than 2 runs once. He also pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Cubs earlier this month. Alec Mills allowed 5 ER in 5.2 IP to the Pirates when he faced them and he is 0-1 with a 7.08 ERA in September. The Pirates have the starting pitching advantage, and they are the hotter team, take the Pirates at home. |
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09-27-21 | A's v. Mariners -112 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are 12-4 against the Athletics this season and they have won 9 straight games straight up. Chris Flexen is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in his last 7 games and he allowed just 1 run in 7 IP against the As in his last start. Cole Irvin is 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA in his last 7 games and the best he pitched against the Mariners this season was his last start where he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP. The Mariners have won 8 of their last 10. |
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09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -157 | 5-4 | Loss | -157 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Josiah Gray was good in his last outing but he has never pitched in Coors Field. He also struggled when he faced the Rockies in Washington last week. German Marquez has been good at home this season and so have the Rockies. However, the Rockies have weird reverse splits in September but I think they’re more due than anything. Not to mention, their home games have been against the Giants and Dodgers. The Nats bullpen has been awful and they should play a big part in a game at Coors Field. |
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09-27-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +135 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox flew into Detroit for a single game today before they fly home tomorrow and they are sitting plenty of regulars including Tim Anderson. They have nothing to play for right now while the Tigers are still at home after yesterday’s series and they have something to play for in getting to that 81st win. Matt Manning has been much better at home and he allowed just 3 ER in 5 IP in his last start which was against the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel is 1-3 with a 7.92 ERA in his last 7 games and he allowed only 2 runs in 5 IP against the Tigers last start but he gave up 11 hits. The Tigers just swept the White Sox at home last week, take the Tigers at home. |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals -145 v. Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cards keep winning and keep getting undervalued. At this point, I just think its dumb not to ride the Cardinals until their streak runs out. The Cubs have lost 11 of 13 games while the Cards have won 15 straight games. It is a little bit of a possible letdown spot with the Cardinals beating the franchise record win streak yesterday, however I will keep taking the Cards if they are this cheap. Jake Woodford is stretched out and he has a 1.47 ERA in September. The Cubs will be going with mostly a bullpen game starting with Keegan Thompson and they have the second worst bullpen ERA in the league since the trade deadline. Take the Cards. |
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09-26-21 | Nationals +167 v. Reds | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the Nats had a bullpen, they could be 15 games over .500 since the trade deadline. Today, Josh Rogers is pitching and he has been really good and most importantly, gotten deep into games. Tyler Mahle is noticeably worse at home for whatever reason. Juan Soto is the hottest hitter in baseball and the Nats have a couple other players going well right now too. The Reds have been terrible this month so I can’t understand why they are this heavy favorites. Take the value in the Nats. |
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09-25-21 | Braves -115 v. Padres | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huascar Ynoa has been decent since returning from the IL but he faces Vince Velasquez tonight who shouldn’t pitch too deep after pitching 1 inning and allowing 3 runs just three days ago. The Padres are 6-14 in September while the Braves are just 1.5 games up on the Phillies for the NL East. The Braves should be playing with some urgency and their bullpen is much fresher after 2 bullpen games for the Padres yesterday while Max Fried tossed a complete game. Take the Braves. |
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09-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers -128 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tarik Skubal has been good at home with a 3.72 ERA and he shouldn’t go too deep into the game today so his stuff should play up a bit. Jon Heasley is making his second career start and he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP in his first start. The Tigers are 12-8 in September and 7-3 at home in September. The Tigers had plenty of chances in last night’s game but just couldn’t get runners crossing the plate for whatever reason. I mentioned yesterday how I didn’t think Comerica Park would benefit the Royals because they need home runs to score, so instead they hit two triples that resulted in runs. I don’t think that happens again tonight, I think the Tigers bounce back from their loss yesterday. Take the Tigers at home. |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals -135 v. Cubs | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals have now won 14 straight games and I am not really sure why they are under -200 still. Jon Lester has pitched 5 straight games going 5 innings and allowing 2 or fewer runs which is big because the Cardinals bullpen is pretty worked right now. Adrian Sampson has been solid for the Cubs but he isn’t stretched out and shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. The Cubs have lost 10 of their last 12 games and they were beat bad twice yesterday. The Cards are 11-3 on the road in September and they are just 5 games up in the Wild Card. They have 8 games left so you know they see the finish line. The Cards scored at least 8 runs in both 7-inning games yesterday. Take the Cards to win their 15th straight. |
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09-24-21 | Mariners -125 v. Angels | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jose Suarez has actually been solid lately and the Mariners are just 4-3 in LA this season, so I can see why this line is where it is, but the Mariners have won 5 straight games and they are 13-7 in September including 10-3 on the road. The Angels are 7-13 in September and 3-9 at home. Logan Gilbert pitched well against the Angels in his first start against them and he has actually been better on the road. Gilbert is 1-0 with a 2.01 ERA in September (against Houston x2, Boston, and KC) and the Mariners have a much better bullpen than the Angels. Take the Mariners to keep Rollin. |
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09-24-21 | Mets v. Brewers -135 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers will be more than happy to see a team other than the Cardinals right now, and the poor hitting Mets are the perfect opponent. The Brewers have lost 5 straight games but the Mets have lost 8 of 10 games. Eric Lauer is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA in his last 7 starts and 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in September. The Mets struggle against lefties and they struggle on the road at 29-46 on the season. Tylor Megill is 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA on the road this season and he has really struggled in September going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Take the Brewers at home. |
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09-24-21 | Royals v. Tigers -104 | 3-1 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball since the beginning of June and they have won 4 straight games. They are 12-7 in September and 7-2 at home, and they just came off a home sweep of the White Sox. The Royals have been decent in September going 10-11. Carlos Hernandez struggled in his last outing allowing 7 ER in 4 IP, and he struggled against the Tigers the last time he faced them. Casey Mize won’t go deep into the game, but the Tigers bullpen has been lights out recently. The Royals need home runs to score, and I don’t think Comerica Park helps that tonight. Take the Tigers. |
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09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox +108 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees just swept the Rangers at home, but they are still just 10-11 in September. The Red Sox are finally healthy after a COVID outbreak and they have won 7 straight games. They are also 13-6 including 8-3 at home in September. Nathan Eovaldi is much better at home going 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA and he has pitched well against the Yankees every time he has faced them this season. Gerritt Cole has struggled against the Red Sox this season and he has struggled in August going 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA. The Red Sox have been one of the best home teams in the league since the trade deadline and they are 49-29 overall at home. The Red Sox are 10-6 against the Yankees this season and 6-1 at home. |
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09-24-21 | Cardinals -136 v. Cubs | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line seems like a mistake. The Cards are on a 12 game winning streak and I doubt they want it to stop until they clinch the Wild Card. JA Happ has actually been really good since coming over, only allowing more than 3 runs in 2 of his 9 starts. Justin Steele has been decent but he has had command issues having walked 9 batters in 14 IP this month. The Cards hit lefties well and they are 9-3 on the road in September. The Cubs have lost 8 of their last 10 games. |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians +119 | 3-5 | Win | 119 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units White Sox will have clinched the division with a win in the first game so I have to imagine they will be sitting some players in game 2. Zach Plesac has been solid and we lost the first game of this doubleheader so we will play the home dog again and try to turn a profit. I am a little worried this line will skyrocket with the lineups announced in game 2 if everyone sits, so we will make this play before the game ends and hope the White Sox A. don’t blow it and B. sit their starters in Game 2. |
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09-23-21 | Giants -109 v. Padres | 6-7 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Logan Webb has been tone of the best pitchers in the league lately and he pitched a quality start in his only appearance against the Padres this season. Yu Darvish has been one of the worst pitchers in the league lately and he allowed 4 HR and 8 ER against the Giants 10 days ago. The Giants are 15-5 in September and they are 8-0 on the road, good for second in the league. The Padres are 5-13 in September, good for second to last in the league. Buster Posey will probably be out of the lineup but it’s the Giants lefties that pose the biggest risk to Darvish. Padres have lost 5 straight and 8 of 10, take the Giants. |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals +107 v. Brewers | 8-5 | Win | 107 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Adrian Houser has pitched well lately and pitched well against the Cardinals this season, but Adam Wainwright has pitched just as good, if not better and he has pitched well against the Brewers this season. The Cardinals have won 11 straight including the first 3 games of this series yet they are still dogs. The Cards are 15-6 while the Brewers are 10-9 in September, so with the starting pitching matchup a wash, I am gonna take the team that’s hot. Not to mention, the Cards gave all their top bullpen pieces the day off yesterday with the blowout. Take the Cards. |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians +130 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first game of a doubleheader and the Indians are home dogs in both games currently. The White Sox were just swept by the Tigers while the Indians salvaged the last game of a series against the Royals. I don’t think either team is good enough right now to sweep today and I think the Indians have the starting pitching advantage in both 7-inning games so I will go with the home dog in the Indians. If they win, we stay off game 2, if they lose we go with the Indians as home dogs again and hope to profit. |
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09-22-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies +180 | 5-10 | Win | 180 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Normally I would stay away from betting against Walker Buehler but Coors Field is a little different. German Marquez is 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season and the Rockies are 45-28 at home. The Dodgers are just 6-5 on the road in September. If the Rockies can keep this game close going into the late innings, I think they can steal a win tonight. Take the value in the Rockies at home. |
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09-22-21 | Mets v. Red Sox -159 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm a bit surprised the Sox aren't about 20 cents higher on the moneyline considering they are motivated and have ace Chris Sale on the mound. He has yet to allow more than two earned in six starts since his season debut. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has a 5.18 road ERA and hasn't personally won since July 3. |
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09-22-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -123 | 7-5 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Josiah Gray pitched well against the Marlins when he faced them but he has been really past his past couple outings. He has allowed 10 walks in his past two starts and at least one home run in every start this season. Elieser Hernandez allowed 2 ER in 5 IP against the Nats earlier this season and he has been solid lately. The Marlins are 9-9 in September and 6-5 at home while the Nats are 7-13 and 3-5 on the road. |
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09-22-21 | Blue Jays v. Rays -107 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays achilles heal is their bullpen and today they are going with a bullpen game, starting with Julian Merryweather. Luis Patino has been much better at home this season with a 3.38 ERA, although he was hit hard by the Blue Jays in his most recent matchup. The first two games of this series had the tying runs on base in the ninth inning and I expect this game to be similar. However, I am going to go with the Rays at home because of the Blue Jays bullpen depth. |
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09-21-21 | Giants -106 v. Padres | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are the second best team in the league in September at 13-5 while the Padres are the second worst team in September at 5-11. Yet, the second best team is the underdog. Kevin Gausman has been one of the Giants best pitchers and he is better on the road at 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA. Joe Musgrove is expected to starts for the Padred. The Giants are just 1 game up on the Dodgers for the division lead while the Padres are effectively out of it 4 games back of the Wild Card. These teams split a 4 game series last week but the Giants went with bullpen games for two of those games, working their bullpen hard. They were off yesterday so they should have everyone available and their best lineup in. Take the Giants. |
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09-21-21 | Cardinals +190 v. Brewers | 2-1 | Win | 190 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brandon Woodruff has struggled in his past couple outings including a 6 ER outing against the Cards last month. Jake Woodford pitched well against the Brewers last month and he has pitched well since being inserted into the rotation. Take the Cards. |
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09-21-21 | Blue Jays +100 v. Rays | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays were a hit away from tying the game last night in the 9th, but their bats really heated up when they started seeing pitchers they’ve seen before. Drew Rasmussen and Alek Manoah have both been very good but the Blue Jays are 15-4 in September while the Rays are 9-10 and just 5-5 at home. Take the Blue Jays to even this series at 1-1. |
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09-21-21 | Mets v. Red Sox -127 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems a cheap price considering the Mets are 15 games under .500 on the road and the Red Sox are 47-29 at home. The Sox are 11-4 vs. NL teams this season. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in his past eight starts and on plenty of extra rest. The Sox are 8-0 in his interleague starts all-time at Fenway Park. New York's Marcus Stroman gets among the worst run support in the majors at just 3.58 per game. The Mets are 0-5 in their past five after a win. |
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09-21-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -138 | 7-1 | Loss | -138 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Marlins have been good at home since the trade deadline and they have now won 5 of the last 7 games against the Nats. Rogers won’t be in too long but their bullpen is capable, unlike the Nats. Take the Marlins at home. |
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09-20-21 | Cardinals +190 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 190 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals have now won 8 straight games and they are 13-5 on the road since the trade deadline. The Brewers are just 3-3 against the Cardinals at home this season. Freddy Peralta pitched well in his last outing, but he had been struggling before that including allowed 4 runs in 2 IP against the Cardinals earlier in September. Jake Woodford didn’t allow a run in 5.1 IP against the Brewers earlier in September and he has been solid since being inserted into the starting rotation. |
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09-20-21 | Blue Jays -126 v. Rays | 4-6 | Loss | -126 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray is facing rookie prospect Shane Baz tonight in Tampa. The Rays have been hitting lefties well lately but they are just 8-10 this month while the Blue Jays are 15-3. In his last 7 starts, Ray is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and he just allowed 1 run in 7 IP against the Rays. He has faced the Rays 5 times this season and pitched a quality start in each one. Take the Blue Jays. |
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09-20-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -104 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are 15-11 at home since the trade deadline while the Nats are 6-15 on the road. The Marlins have won 5 of the last 7 games between these two teams, and 4 of the 6 including winning two series against the Nats in the end of August. Jesus Luzardo has been solid lately despite his poor play against the Nationals and should give the Marlins a good start. Erick Fedde has pitched well against the Marlins this season but poor overall giving the Marlins good value at home here, take the value in the Marlins at home. |
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09-20-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +205 | 3-4 | Win | 205 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Carlos Rodon has pitched just 4 times since the end of July and he hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in any of those games. Matt Manning has pitched well lately and he is much better at home. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 10 games and they are 10-7 in September including 5-2 at home. This team is just 6 games below .500 right now and while most teams don’t have much to play for, you know this team wants that 82nd win. The White Sox are just 8-8 in September and 4-5 on the road. The White Sox have won just 5 of their last 10 games and if they weren’t in the AL Central, they would be getting knocked out of the playoffs right now. Take the value in the Tigers at home. |
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09-20-21 | Royals v. Indians -154 | 7-2 | Loss | -154 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First of a doubleheader so scheduled for seven innings. One of the best pitchers in the American League rather quietly for weeks has been Cleveland's Triston McKenzie. He had a 1.93 ERA in August and has followed that with a 1.50 number in September. And McKenzie has a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 innings this year vs. the Royals. KC's Brady Singer is 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA on the road. The Royals have dropped their past four as dogs. |
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09-19-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -108 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals needed a two out, 8th inning miracle by Tyler O’Neill last night to keep their streak alive at 7 straight wins and now they get to face Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has allowed at least 3 runs in all three of his starts with the Padres. JA Happ has been pitching really well since being traded to the Cardinals going 4-2 with a 4.08 ERA. The Padres have now lost 6 of 8 games and they are 32-41 on the road this season. |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lost on the Giants at home the past two days, but going back to the well here. SF has clinched a playoff spot but is neck-and-neck with the Dodgers to avoid the wild-card game so there remains plenty of motivation. Logan Webb (10-3, 2.80) is 5-0 with 1.66 ERA at home this year. The Braves were supposed to play Thursday at home but had to wait around for a postponement and then fly across the country. Ian Anderson is a solid pitcher but has a 6.75 ERA in two starts this month. Atlanta has dropped its past four as a dog. |
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09-17-21 | A's -115 v. Angels | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
This is one of those times we are betting a lookahead line because we know things are going to change -- Friday's change being that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for the Angels due to a sore arm and probably pitch won't the rest of the way; it won't apparently affect his hitting. The Halos haven't announced a starter Friday yet (likely a bullpen day), but I'd expect the A's to be favored eventually. It will be Cole Irvin for them, and he has a 3.24 ERA in four starts this year vs. LA. Oakland has won six of its past eight in Anaheim. |
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09-17-21 | Pirates v. Marlins -154 | 2-1 | Loss | -154 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh had to play Thursday and travel, while Miami was off. The Bucs enter on a seven-game road skid and scheduled starting pitcher Wil Crowe has a 7.04 ERA in 46.0 away innings. The Marlins have won four straight as favorites and are 6-2 in their past eight at home. Elieser Hernandez allowed one run over five in his lone outing this year vs. Pittsburgh. |
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09-17-21 | Dodgers -162 v. Reds | 1-3 | Loss | -162 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
The Reds apparently may get All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker back from a long IL stint so that lineup will be that much better, but the pitching matchup is incredibly one-sided in favor of the Dodgers' Walker Buehler over the Reds' Luis Castillo. Plus, Cincinnati has used its three best relievers each of the past two days so they aren't available. LA was off Thursday so no pen worries -- Buehler is capable of a complete game regardless. Frankly, you almost have to take the Dodgers the rest of the way when they are under -200. Cincinnati is 0-5 in its past five after a win. |
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09-17-21 | Rockies -105 v. Nationals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 games all on the road and now they face Josiah Gray and the Nats. Gray started off hot but he has struggled lately allowing at least 5 runs in his last 3 starts. German Marquez has been much better at home but he is coming off 6 shutout innings against the Phillies. The Rockies top bullpen guys got the day off yesterday and the Nats bullpen has been miserable. Take the Rockies to win their 4th straight and 5th out of 6. |
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09-16-21 | Padres v. Giants -175 | 7-4 | Loss | -175 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants had their nine-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday when their bullpen day didn't go well. The Padres will use the same pitching strategy for this one with Pierce Johnson expected to sever as an opener followed by Ryan Weathers. It's Kevin Gausman for the Giants, who have to keep the pedal on the medal with the Dodgers now just 1.5 games back in the NL West. Gausman has a 1.42 ERA in three starts vs. SD this year. |
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09-15-21 | Yankees -170 v. Orioles | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Could the Orioles pull off the upset behind their best pitcher in John Means? They certainly could, but I have to take the motivated, better club in the Yanks. Means is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in 31 career innings vs. New York and he has allowed a whopping 25 homers in 22 starts this year. The O's also will be without one of their best hitters in Trey Mancini, a late scratch (catcher Pedro Severino also out). Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. is 2-2 with a 2.85 ERA in nine starts this year. Mancini is the only Orioles batter with much career success off him. Baltimore is 2-9 in its past 11 at home vs. lefties. |
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09-15-21 | Reds -125 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I might be a TOTAL fool here, but the Reds simply can't be losing games to the Pirates as they chase the NL's second wild-card spot. They did show at least some heart in nearly rallying from a 6-0 hole in Tuesday's series opener. This is basically fading Bucs start Mitch Keller, who is 2-8 at home with an 8.19 ERA. In two starts vs. Cincinnati, he's 0-2 with an 11.88 ERA. Even with Tuesday's loss, Cincy is 9-2 in the season series. Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez allowed one run over six in his lone outing vs. Pittsburgh. |
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09-15-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -162 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are sitting four semi-regulars in Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier (and Wander Franco remains on the IL). That's a fair amount of power on the bench other than Kiermaier, who is one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors. It's the end of a nine-game road trip, so the Rays as a whole might be dragging. It's Jays ace lefty and Cy Young contender Robbie Ray (11-5, 2.69) on the mound. He has a 2.00 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 27 innings this year vs. TB. The Jays are 6-1 in their past seven after a loss. |
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09-13-21 | Padres v. Giants -102 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants have one of the best bullpens in the league and they are going with a bullpen day. Yu Darvish has been extremely inconsistent and he has struggled since the sticky substance. The Padres actually have the 6th worst record in the league since the trade deadline at 14-21 and they are 5-12 on the road. The Giants are 28-11 in the same time span. Take this line before it moves. |
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09-13-21 | Cardinals -105 v. Mets | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Adam Wainwright has found his fountain of youth this season, he is 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA since the trade deadline. Rich Hill has pitched well but he doesn’t get deep into games, and I think the Mets could be drained after a late, emotional game last night. The Cardinals just took two out of three games from the Reds and they are 11-5 on the road since the trade deadline. The Mets are just 9-9 at home since the trade deadline and the Cards are solid at hitting lefties. Take the Cards. |
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09-13-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -123 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drew Rasmussen has now made five starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in a start yet. However, I think that ends today. The Blue Jays are as hot as can be right now and the Rays don’t really have anything to play for with the division wrapped up. The Rays have been really good at 26-12 since the trade deadline, but the Blue Jays have been right there with them at 27-15 including 15-7 at home. The Rays have only played 3 games at Rogers Centre this season and lost 2 of them. Alek Manoah is 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA at home and he isn’t your typical rookie. He should have success with the Rays being a strikeout team. Take the Blue Jays at home. |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -180 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've seen this situation a few times this year where a club has to fly in for a makeup game and then fly right back out. It usually doesn't go well for that team. I don't expect it to for Minnesota, either. Aaron Judge is in the lineup for the Yanks after leaving Sunday night's game with some dizziness. New York's Luis Gil is the first Yankees pitcher to start his first four MLB appearances and allow just three total runs over those first four starts -- the previous team record was five runs by Chase Whitley in 2014 and Slow Joe Doyle in 1906. Slow Joe Doyle. That's awesome. |
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09-12-21 | Red Sox v. White Sox -150 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has turned into a bit of a pumpkin in allowing four runs in three straight outings. Boston apparently will be without JD Martinez (25 HR, 89 RBI) again, so that's a nice break for Chicago's Lance Lynn (10-4, 2.59). He has a 1.53 ERA in day games this year. |
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09-10-21 | Giants -139 v. Cubs | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants are playing their ideal starting lineup and while they are using a bullpen day, the first two guys planned have been lights out. I used to stay away from fading the Cubs when Kyle Hendricks was on the mound, but he has really fallen off of late overall and has an ERA of 5.56 at home and 5.08 during the day (used to be money in home day games). San Francisco is 35-15 in day games. The Giants were off Thursday or I'd worry about the early Pacific time start. Will Kris Bryant homer in his return to Wrigley? |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -144 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indians have scored just two total runs in a three-game skid to Minnesota, but this is such an apparent pitching mismatch I have to take Cleveland. The Twins go with Andrew Albers (1-1, 7.30) in place of a scratched Randy Dobnak. Albers was obliterated last time out by the Rays. I've been cashing for weeks on the Tribe's Cal Quantrill -- yeah, he was hit around a bit last time but that will happen at Fenway Park when the wind is blowing out, and he had been spectacular for about two months prior. Quantrill is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA at home this year. |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's -135 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -163 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox ended an eight-game regular-season losing streak in Oakland on Tuesday and burned me, but I'm going back to the A's. First off, I'm quite sure that Sox slugger Eloy Jimenez will not play after leaving Tuesday with a knee injury. Nothing too serious, but the Pale Hose will not push the injury-prone Jimenez with such a big division lead -- shortstop Tim Anderson remains out. Second, the weak Sox pitching link (when healthy) is lefty Dallas Keuchel, who has a 5.22 overall ERA, 5.89 on the road and has allowed exactly six runs in each of his past three. The A's are 10 games over .500 against southpaws. Oakland's Frankie Montas is among the AL leaders in many pitching categories since the All-Star break. |
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09-08-21 | Blue Jays +116 v. Yankees | 6-3 | Win | 116 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 10 while the Blue Jays have won 6 straight games and 9 of their last 10. Aaron Boone is shaking things up by moving DJ Lemahieu down in the lineup and leading off Brett Gardner but I think Alek Manoah should still have success with his wipeout slider. Luis Gil has been good too but the way these teams are trending, the wrong team is favored. |
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09-08-21 | Royals -123 v. Orioles | 8-9 | Loss | -123 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Minor has been very good lately going deep into games and pitching well. Matt Harvey is still Matt Harvey and shouldn’t get deep into this game. Adalberto Mondesi is in the lineup and the Royals are 8-4 on the road in the last 3 weeks while the Orioles are 3-8 at home. |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -123 | 3-0 | Loss | -123 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This play is mainly on Triston McKenzie as he has been absolutely dominant pitching five straight quality starts. Joe Ryan made one start allowing 3 runs in 5 IP and the Twins have used all their top bullpen pieces winning the first two games of this series. Take the Indians at home. |
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09-07-21 | White Sox v. A's -125 | 6-3 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Things couldn't have gone much worse for the A's in Toronto. They blew a six-run, eighth-inning lead, lost a slugfest and then were blown out. Fortunately, they had Monday off and are now at home. Also, the White Sox's rotation is down three men, meaning they have to start Jimmy Lambert. The righty has a 9.00 ERA in the majors in eight innings and 4.98 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A innings. Also, the White Sox have a losing road record and are just 29-33 against teams .500 or above. |
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09-07-21 | Rays -102 v. Red Sox | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday was a disaster for the Red Sox. With Chris Sale on the hill, they needed to use six relievers -- including most of their important ones that aren't on the shelf -- and still lost in extras. The Rays didn't even need to use Andrew Kittredge or Pete Fairbanks. Tuesday, the Rays start Drew Rasmussen. He hasn't given up more than a run since July 5, a span of 11 outings and 32 1/3 innings of pitching to a 1.95 ERA. The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been awful at home. He held down the Rays last week, but they'll get to him with a second look on a quick turnaround. |
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09-07-21 | Royals -114 v. Orioles | 3-7 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jackson Kowar looked much better in his most recent stint in the Major Leagues allowing just 2 runs in 6 IP. Alexander Wells has been very hit or miss and he will be making a spot start today. The Orioles are 5-15 in their last 3 weeks including 2-8 at home while the Royals are 13-8 and 8-3 on the road in the same time span. Trey Mancini is out of the lineup again, take the Royals. |
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09-07-21 | Mets v. Marlins +160 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Carlos Carrasco has been decent since returning to the starting rotation but he has already faced the Marlins twice including in his last start. Edward Cabrera is making just his third career start and his last start was against the Mets. The Mets are 13-21 since the trade deadline and they are 6-13 on the road. The Marlins are 13-19 since the trade deadline and 12-8 at home. The Marlins are 5-2 against the Mets at home this season, this game should be much closer to 50-50. Take the value in the home dog. |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians -121 | 3-0 | Loss | -121 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Aaron Civale makes his return from the IL for his first start since June. John Gant has struggled since being traded and inserted into the starting rotation, but most notably he hasn’t been getting deep into games. The Indians are 11-8 in the past 3 weeks including 6-4 at home, while the Twins are 8-11 in the same time span and 4-7 on the road. The Twins used all their top bullpen guys in the win yesterday as well, take the Indians at home. |
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09-06-21 | Twins v. Indians +114 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both these starters have actually been pitching very well lately but the Twins struggle against lefties. The Indians have been much better at home while the Twins have struggled on the road. The Indians are 11-7 in the past 3 weeks and 6-3 at home while the Twins are 7-11 and 3-7 on the road in the same timeframe. Jose Ramirez should be back in the lineup after an off day yesterday and the Twins only have 27 road wins all season. Take the home dogs. |
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09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies +134 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies and the Giants actually have the same record at 11-8 in the past three weeks, and the Rockies are one of the best teams at home in the league. The Giants are coming off multiple high leverage bullpen games against the Dodgers so their bullpen should be worn out. Not ideal for Coors Field. Kevin Gausman has yet to pitch at Coors Field this season and he allowed 5 ER in 10.1 IP in Coors Field last season. Kyle Freeland has been pitching really well lately including one run allowed in 6 IP against the Giants in his only start against them this season. The Giants tend to struggle against lefties and Buster Posey should be out of the lineup after playing back to back nights. Take the Rockies at home. |
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09-06-21 | Reds v. Cubs +133 | 3-4 | Win | 133 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have the fifth worst wOBA in the league against lefties this season and they face Justin Steele today who allowed just 1 hit in 5 IP in his last start. The Cubs have sneakily won 6 straight games and 7 of their last 10 games including a 3 run 9th inning yesterday to walk off the Pirates. In the past three weeks, the Cubs are 11-7 while the Reds are 9-10. The Cubs are 3-4 against the Reds at home this season and they just won 2 out of 3 games in Cincy in August. Take the home dog. |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays +130 v. Yankees | 8-0 | Win | 130 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jays bats have awoken after their onslaught of the Athletics relievers continued. They have now won 4 straight games and 7 of their last 10 while the take on the slumping Yankees. The Yankees just lost 2 straight to the Orioles and have lost 6 of 10. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jameson Taillon are both capable of pitching gems or getting lit up so I will take the value on the dog. |
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09-05-21 | Dodgers -173 v. Giants | 4-6 | Loss | -173 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants have withstood everything that's gone against them this season, but now the starting rotation has some holes. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has faced San Francisco's two aces this season, and the Dodgers lost two of the three games, even though Buehler allowed a total of two earned runs. Los Angeles will get the win - and sole possession of first place in the NL West - on Sunday. |
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09-05-21 | Mariners -120 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners are riding a four-game winning streak and are only four games out for the final AL wild-card spot. Seattle winning five straight looks strong, and it’s fairly cheap behind RHP Chris Flexen, as the team has gone 17-8 behind him. Opponents have hit Arizona LHP Tyler Gilbert hard since he tossed a no-hitter in his first major-league start. Take the Mariners to win. |
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09-05-21 | White Sox v. Royals +142 | 0-6 | Win | 142 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dylan Cease is 5-4 with a 5.37 ERA on the road this season. However, he has been very good lately and he has faced the Royals four times already this season. Brady Singer has been pitching well lately also but he has only faced the White Sox one time this season as opposed to Cease. The Royals have been hitting well lately and these two teams have split their meetings this season 9-9. Adalberto Mondesi is back in the lineup. Take the value in the Royals at home. |
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09-05-21 | Indians +145 v. Red Sox | 11-5 | Win | 145 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams continue to play close games as the Indians tied the game in the 9th yesterday only for the Red Sox to walk it off in the 10th. Nick Pivetta has been placed on the COVID IL and it looks like the Red Sox will be going with a bullpen game. Zach Plesac has been very good lately and he is coming off one of his best starts if the season. The Indians have been playing well lately and the Red Sox are still without many key players including Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers is getting the day off, take the value on the Indians. |
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09-03-21 | Dodgers -113 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First place in the NL West on the line -- the Dodgers come in with a full bullpen after being off Thursday, while the Giants aren't hitting and were lucky to avoid a four-game home sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Thursday. Arguably San Francisco's best reliever, Tyler Rogers (1.80 ERA), has pitched in the past two games and thus likely won't be available. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani is 0-3 with a 9.43 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers this year. I don't love LA starter David Price, but getting that loaded lineup at just -115 against anyone is a must-play. I expect this ML to jump in the morning. |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies +144 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You know what I like to say ... Stick With What Works! The Rockies are back home, where they are 43-22. That means they play like a 107-win team at home. They've gone 10-2 in their last two homestands and we went 4-0 on the last one. Why stray? Meantime, the Braves have lost six of eight against tough competition after getting fat against mostly weaklings. The Rockies might not look as tough as the Yankees, Giants or Dodgers, but when in Coors Field, they absolutely are that tough. Ride 'em until they buck ya. |
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09-02-21 | Indians -100 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indians starter Triston McKenzie is throwing the ball very well of late. In four starts in August he had a 1.93 ERA and 28 strikeouts against two walks in 28 innings. He's also totally shut down the Royals in three outings this season, having allowed only one run in 15 2/3 innings. On the other side, it's been a while since Mike Minor wasn't bad. The Royals are 2-9 in his last 11 starts and he has a 6.46 ERA in that time. So we've got the better team having a much better pitching matchup with very playable odds. Take 'em. |
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09-02-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -151 | 4-0 | Loss | -151 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units he Red Sox broke the Rays' nine-game winning streak on Wednesday, but that was with Chris Sale on the hill. This time around it's Eduardo Rodriguez in front of a COVID-ravaged bullpen. He's been terrible this season with a 5.12 ERA. Even if he holds the Rays down one time through the order, it won't take much longer for them to bust through offensively. The Rays send rookie sensation Shane McClanahan, who has a 2.84 ERA in his last eight starts, seven of those Rays wins. He's 6-1 at home and the Rays are 43-24 at home. Play the winner. Stick with what works. |
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08-31-21 | Yankees -188 v. Angels | 4-6 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels just announced that Shohei Ohtani will not pitch Tuesday night (he will be able to DH through a minor injury), so this moneyline is clearly going to rise overnight with Jaime Barria (2-2, 5.56) taking his place. It's Jameson Taillon for the Yanks. He is 7-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last 13 starts, allowing three earned or fewer in 11 of those. |