Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | 103-102 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis hosted the Wizards on Wednesday in a game that the Grizzlies controlled in the second half. Memphis was a bit on the fortunate side since Washington’s best player Bradley Beal shot only 27% from the floor. That was Beal’s second worst shooting night of the season as he has averaged 48% from the field this season. Denver has won 4 in a row including a 31-point win over Milwaukee on the second of a back-to-back game. They have also won 5 of 6 and the loss during this period was by a bucket. The Nuggets play the right way and they have several guys that can get their own shot. They are in the top 8 in the league in scoring, allowing points and assists. The Nuggets are behind only Milwaukee, Phoenix and Utah in point differential |
|||||||
03-11-21 | 76ers +3.5 v. Bulls | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Ha. They can’t trap us. The Bulls have been best as road dogs, as we often note on these pages. Tonight, because neither Joel Embiid nor Ben Simmons is playing for the 76ers, Chicago is a -3+ home favorite against the Eastern Conference’s first place team. You know what they say. First, they say that what everybody and his brother knows is not worth knowing. Also, they say that when the big cats are away, the mice will play! |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -10.5 | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bucks have revenge for a 130-110 loss in New York. They seem to be pacing themselves this season as opposed to last, when they were the clear #1 team throughout, then fizzled badly in the post-season. The Knicks have been playing well, it’s true. But who have they been playing? Mostly nobody. Prior to a recent rare loss for New York, in San Antonio, we noted that they’d been beating losers. The Knicks were supposed to lose that game, against a winning team, by 4 points. They lost it by 26. They went home to win against banged-up, travel-weary Detroit. Big whoop. Milwaukee shot 7-for-38 from three-point range when they lost in New York. With Mitchell Robinson out for the Knicks, Giannis can posterize Nerlens Noel a few times. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Hawks -3 v. Raptors | 121-120 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto was hit hard at the end of the first half of the season with health and safety protocols. It is kind of amazing the way the NBA has continued to carry on despite all the health issues. When Toronto lost to the Hawks in February Atlanta did a good job on both of the Toronto starting guards and Atlanta won despite turning it over 18 times. Atlanta went 3 and 2 in their last 5 in the first half but in that span they beat Boston and they also handled Miami. Atlanta kicks it off here only 2 games out of the 6th spot in the East. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Georgia v. Missouri -6 | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units “You can’t let Missouri play downhill,” said one SEC head coach, Kermit Davis of Ole Miss, who beat the Tigers twice. Meaning, don’t let them get into an up-tempo groove by winning the boards and triggering transition. Plenty of Georgia’s losing scores indicate that the Crean game can’t get played like that. Their defensive rebounding rate is one of the nation’s worst. The overall experience edge for Missouri is strong and while the Tigers aren’t a strong three-point shooting team, neither is Georgia |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Rider +6.5 v. St. Peter's | 60-75 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We frequently say that opposing defensive players can just hold their ground and watch Saint Peter’s run their lengthy offensive sets that create nice open looks before they miss the jump-shot or fail on the lay-up. Therefore, with two possessions worth of points as a head start, against a low-possession opponent, we’ll take Rider on two days’ rest since their first round win. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Tulane +3.5 v. Tulsa | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a loss to close the season, Tulane head coach Ron Hunter left encouraged. “Our defense in the last week-and-a-half has been awful, and then we got back to who we were in the second half. We played about as well as we can play in the second half.” Tulane will now take on a Tulsa team that previously knocked off by a score of 58-48 on the road. The Green Wave’s tricky zone defense perplexed a limited Tulsa offense. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Northern Colorado +7.5 v. Southern Utah | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As a team with better-than-average percentages on three-pointers offensively and defensively, against an opponent with lower-than-average percentages in both, and with NoCo also being decent at offering resistance in the paint against a Southern Utah squad that likes to do business inside the arc despite not being very big, the unrested, underdog Bears seem like worthy adversary against the #1 seed. The favorite’s tallest starter is 6’7”. Their 6’11” Ivan Madunic has been coming off the bench for about 17-18 minutes to score anywhere from 0 to 4 points – yawn. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Georgetown +7 v. Villanova | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Villanova had its work cut out without senior point guard Collin Gillespie, but now the Wildcats have also lost starting shooting guard Justin Moore for the time being. Moore was set to take over point guard duties, but severely sprained his ankle against Providence. That resulted in Villanova scoring 52 points in a loss to a mediocre Friars team. Now, Villanova will take on a rapidly improving Georgetown defense that can keep the Hoyas competitive on Thursday afternoon as a substantial underdog. The Hoyas have now gone 5-2 against the spread down the stretch, with the only losses coming against a UConn team with James Bouknight back in the fold. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia -5.5 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Virginia’s ability to dissect Syracuse’s 2-3 zone should help the Cavaliers |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day Kentucky enters the SEC Tournament with a chance to save a disappointing season and John Calipari appears ready to empty the tank. “There will be no pitchers left,” Calipari said during a teleconference Wednesday. “I’m using every pitcher I can. The knuckle-baller. The curve-baller. The fast (ball) pitcher. The middle reliever. The last-pitch (closer).” Part of the Wildcats adjustments as of late has been moving senior Davion Mintz into the point guard role. That move should benefit the Wildcats, as it removes struggling freshman Devin Askew from the lineup. The Wildcats will now be bigger, more athletic and will not have sacrificed shooting. |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Maryland | 57-68 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan State continues to fight to keep their season going, and a win on Thursday over Maryland would likely punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans have been a different team as of late, going 5-2 against the spread down the stretch. They won’t lack motivation in this spot, as they previously suffered a loss on the road to Maryland. That first meeting for Michigan State occurred as the fourth game in eight days for the Spartans in late February. Michigan State was a bit taxed from winning back to back games against Illinois and Ohio State prior that outing. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -11.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day The Sooners enter off four straight losses. As far as we’re concerned, they’re going into this “the right way.” The last three were against the fan base’s two most hated rivals, Oklahoma State and Texas. They were right there in all three, losing each by 4 points. The “slide” actually began in the second half of their second win against Iowa State, when they turned a 41-25 halftime lead into a non-cover in the road win. Hey, they’re entitled. It’s a tough conference, long season, and somebody has to lose a game involving two high-class winning teams. But enough is enough, and now they drop in class. It’s not like Iowa State is coming into this any better. Actually, the Cyclones current losing streak is four-and-a-quarter times worse, with 17 in a row! |
|||||||
03-10-21 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic +4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit C-USA Play of the Day Owl not be denied? Last Friday, we won a ***BEST BET on Florida Atlantic against an admittedly weaker foe, Middle Tennessee, in which we described them as a poor man’s version of the highly ranked Houston Cougars. They hit the offensive glass (11.4 ORs per game) and get many second-chance opportunities after missed three pointers. But they miss fewer treys than most, with a good make rate of 37.5%. They are also in the national top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. UTEP has played close games against Arizona and Kansas, beat Arizona State. Those were exhibitions for Arizona and Kansas, and we all know that Arizona State was/is a joke. UTEP is more accurate then FAU only at the free-throw line, but they don’t get there with any fearful frequency. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Duke -2 v. Louisville | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Duke will take on Louisville for a third time this season, having lost both prior outings. Duke should feel confident however, as the Blue Devils took Louisville to overtime on February 27th despite a 4-for-21 shooting performance from three-point range. The Blue Devils can certainly shoot the ball better than that, and have a mismatch in Matthew Hurt. Hurt torched the Cardinals for 37 points, making 13-of-15 two-point attempts before fouling out. Duke hardly had to break a sweat on Tuesday and the concern of a back to back should be lessened as no starter played more than 27 minutes. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Iona +1 v. Siena | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iona looked quite sharp after a two week layoff on Monday night, rolling past Quinnipiac by a score of 72-48. Rick Pitino’s defense looked as good as it has this season, limiting the Bobcats to 29.0% shooting from two-point distance. Pitino is certainly capable of now slowing down Siena guard Jalen Pickett and forcing others to attempt to beat him. Iona impressively ranks 24th-best nationally this season in effective field goal percentage allowed, a testament to Pitino still being as sharp as ever on the sideline. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Air Force +12 v. UNLV | 52-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s an annual March tradition for us to take points with Air Force in the Mountain West Tournament first round. Usually, they’re a double-revenge underdog and that’s the case once again. In two wins in three nights here in early February, UNLV could muster only 68 and 69 points vs. the Falcons while actually scoring at a healthy rate: 1.20 and 1.18 points per possession. They probably can’t do much better than that. They might do worse, because they’re not known for quality of shot selection. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Marquette -3 v. Georgetown | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day Marquette’s defense has made strides lately, looking like the physical and attentive group that Steve Wojciechowski had been hoping for this season. The Golden Eagles have held five of their last six opponents to 0.93 points per possession or less. That has helped lead Marquette to a 4-1 record against the spread in those outings. Marquette’s physicality poses as an issue for a Georgetown offense that prefers to play inside through big man Qudus Wahab. Wahab will have to deal with senior center Theo John, one of the better interior defenders in the Big East. |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Northern Arizona v. Portland State -6 | 77-66 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Big Sky passed by without a regular season meeting between the #7 PSU Vikings and #10 NAU Lumberjacks. Portland State posted a program-best 66.0 points per game allowed, out of necessity because on the other end of the floor so many of them couldn’t hit a cow’s ass with a shovel. Most of NAU’s players share the same erratic traits, as 32% of the team’s 62.7 ppg have been scored by junior guard Cameron Shelton. NAU’s defensive FG% of 51.5% is difficult to embrace, even against erratic-shooting PSU, who helps make up for their misses by being good on the offensive boards. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Wake Forest +8.5 v. Notre Dame | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wake Forest, a multiple possession underdog, gets a chance to reset their season in the ACC Tournament. Said head coach Steve Forbes after a competitive outing against Georgia Tech this week, “Kind of hit a wall in February, maybe it was conditioning. But they’ve kept being positive and we hadn’t always played great, but for a while there tonight I thought that was more indicative of what we saw in January and what we’ll see on Tuesday in Greensboro.” Wake Forest will face a similar minded team in Notre Dame, as both offenses can make shots while both defenses lack physicality. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Oakland +3 v. Cleveland State | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day Oakland enters as a slight underdog on Tuesday night, with a strong chance to win the Horizon League title. The Grizzlies continue to get exceptional point guard play from Jalen Moore, who totaled 14 points, seven assists and two turnovers in Monday’s win over Northern Kentucky. The Grizzlies will get a third crack at Cleveland State after falling to the Vikings twice in early February in two close contests. Oakland starting guard Rashad Williams missed the first game and only played 11 minutes in the second outing due to injury. Williams is now back and has totaled 39 points in the first two games of the Horizon League Tournament this week. With Moore’s running partner back in the fold, the Grizzlies can more than even the score with Cleveland State. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Miami-FL +3 v. Pittsburgh | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hurricanes have been playing with less than a full boat all season, but many of the few (get it?) hands on deck are seniors. “Our guys have had a great attitude, a great work ethic,” said Jim Larrañaga after they won at Boston College in the regular-season finale. “To me this was a huge game, to be able to go to the ACC tournament and feel a lot better about ourselves.” Pitt isn’t getting replacement-scoring out of the guards playing more minutes since the #2 and #3 scorers left the program. After head coach Jeff Capel was reprimanded yesterday (‘Stop tickling my wrist!’) for saying that ACC officiating has been biased against his team, the refs probably won’t bend over backwards to help him out. |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Pepperdine +8.5 v. BYU | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pepperdine is a sizable underdog on Monday night against a BYU team they were competitive against this season. The Waves lost by 11 to the Cougars on the road and then knocked off BYU at home, 76-73. Pepperdine has played exceptional perimeter defense this season, ranking 4th-best nationally in three point percentage allowed. That will be key against a BYU offense that often relies on their perimeter shooting to lead the way. Pepperdine was led on Saturday in the quarterfinals by their star duo of Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards, who combined for 46 points. |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland +2 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Horizon League Play of the Day In an odd twist, Oakland and Northern Kentucky have not met yet this season and will see each other for the first time on Monday night. The meeting will be a clash of styles with Oakland’s uptempo system facing off against a very slow Northern Kentucky team. Where Oakland holds an advantage is with terrific point guard Jalen Moore leading the way. Moore leads the nation in assist rate and will likely be able to get the pace of the game on the Grizzlies’ terms. Also helpful for Oakland is their willingness to pack the paint and allow opposing teams to shoot from three. That’s an issue for a Northern Kentucky team that ranks 288th in three-point percentage. |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State -6.5 | 80-73 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Appalachian State has carried Winning Points Executive Club members through a pair of 5-Star victories on Saturday and Sunday as outright underdogs against #1W seed Texas State, and #2E Coastal Carolina. We don’t view these as “upsets.” Heck, if we think an underdog will win outright, how could it be an “upset?” The ability to suddenly pivot away from, and against, your winners is an important trait for handicappers and bettors to have in their mental/emotional arsenal. (Example: shoulda been that way dealing with VMI yesterday). Or, there’s always the option to be neutral and walk away. It’s a fourth game in four nights for App State. Their starters have played 38-42 minutes in the last two and they’ve lost junior 6’8” forward James Lewis to injury along the way. The bench scored 0 yesterday. Soph guard Donovan Gregory got 8 steals for them last night vs. Coastal (3 and 0 the prior two nights). Yesterday, we mentioned how Georgia State’s good ball security was an asset. After getting swept by App State on the road in January when they hadn’t played in two weeks, Georgia State won 85-71 the next time the teams met on Feb. 23. |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State -3.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ya’ gotta love the Horizon League. Milwaukee’s ousting of #2 seed Wright State in a delayed second round was typical of this conference, not an upset despite the 14-point line, as per the picture we painted for everyone in one of last week’s daily issues. When lower seeds play with six days’ rest, instead of in back-to-back situations, these things tend to happen with more frequency than in more traditional tourneys. By the way, Milwaukee trailed Wright by 24 points in the second half! They closed on a 33-4 run! We won’t expect UW-M to advance here. Anybody that can fall behind by that much may do it again, and be trying to come back vs. better defense. They need to prove they can make a lot of shots against somebody other than Wright State, against whom they’d hit 80 in both prior losses. The Panthers lost 64-53 off a six-day break at Cleveland State, then needed OT the next night to get to 81. But there’s no second night if they lose this. |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Mercer v. VMI +2 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Southern Conference Play of the Day Easy-peasy with our **PREFERRED winner on VMI yesterday – needed only one overtime! Although the Keydets invested a lot of sweat and limited manpower into yesterday’s upset (Wait, what upset? We thought they’d win!), this second of back-to-backs for them is against a Mercer bunch playing for the third straight night. And, they’re military kids. They’ve been through their share of off-the-court physical abuse, er, training! The lone regular season meeting went Mercer’s way, 83-80, at Mercer but our numbers, with an underdog that shoots and rebounds as well as VMI, say that today, it’s… |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Texas -7 v. TCU | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas beat the Horned Frogs by 15 points at home, rendering TCU center Kevin Samuel essentially invisible. Shaka Smart was impressed afterwards that his Longhorns could win by that much, despite being sloppy early with turnovers and not shooting well from three-point range. NCAA Tournament-bound road chalk lays single-digits to .500 overall foe 5-10 in conference. |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drake is a wounded team, who needed a buzzer beater on Saturday to advance past Missouri State. The Bulldogs are now without both starters Roman Penn and Shanquan Hemphill due to injury, forcing a few players to log heavy minutes on Saturday. Now they’ll meet Loyola Chicago on Sunday who easily dispatched Indiana State on Saturday. The Ramblers look like a team on a mission, and will have a bit of extra motivation having lost their last game at Drake in overtime on February 14th. |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -6.5 | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Iowa put together a strong performance against the Badgers in their first meeting on February 18th. The Hawkeyes limited the Badgers to 22.2% shooting from two-point range, leading to a 77-62 victory. Iowa will send off All American Luka Garza on senior day, likely creating for a bit of extra motivation. Wisconsin has looked like a broken team as of late, having lost four of five games. The Badgers simply have not been able to compete with the top of the Big 10, having gone 0-7 against the spread against Michigan, Iowa, Illinois and Purdue. Their defense isn’t what it used to be |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -10 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit AAC Play of the Day Houston has been dominant at home this season, having covered the spread in their last five home games by double digits. The Cougars have had a week to prepare for this AAC showdown, while Memphis has spent the week on the road playing Tuesday and Thursday road games. This will be a major step up in weight class for Memphis, who has not played a Top 100 Ken Pom team in more than a month. The Tigers’ carelessness on offense, where they rank 326th in turnover rate, will create issues against an aggressive Houston defense. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Davidson v. VCU -1 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day Davidson’s 99-point outing on Friday against George Mason was impressive but the Wildcats are perhaps a bit overvalued off such a performance. VCU meanwhile saw the return of star guard Bones Hyland, who totaled 30 points in a victory against Dayton. Hyland missed VCU’s first meeting against Davidson last week, in which the Rams were competitive in a one-possession game for the first 30 minutes until losing distance on the road. VCU will have the luxury of having seen Davidson’s motion offense once recently, something George Mason did not have the benefit of on Friday. Consider that Davidson is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Morehead State v. Belmont -5.5 | 86-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Belmont handled Morehead State in their first meeting this season, rolling to a 73-58 win at home in a game they never trailed. The Bruins would then lose the second meeting on the road in overtime, but did have starting center Nick Muszynski for that meeting. Muszynski is now back and the Bruins are 20-0 in the Ohio Valley when the big man suits up. Muszynski will help anchor a Belmont defense that ranked 2nd best in the Ohio Valley in two-point percentage allowed. That’s where Morehead State prefers to do their scoring, making this spot a challenge for the Eagles. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | VMI +8.5 v. Furman | 91-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Furman, 8-13 ATS, is favored at this neutral site against a 13-7 ATS opponent it lost to outright, 74-73, as an 11-point road favorite on Jan. 20. The catch – oh, there’s always a catch – is that VMI canceled its last three regular season games due to positive tests and quarantining, which began Feb. 22. So, if ya’ like military dogs with the best three-point field goal percentage in their conference (38.9%), gap in games notwithstanding |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss -8 | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mississippi’s season will be on the line on Saturday, as the Rebels are just hanging onto the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Ole Miss stayed in contention with a solid win over Kentucky on Tuesday and will have two extra days of preparation compared to a Vanderbilt team that has had quite the schedule as of late. This will be the third game in six days for the Commodores, having played at LSU on Tuesday, at Cincinnati on Thursday and now travel to Mississippi for Saturday. The Rebels will also be out for payback, having dropped a road game against Vanderbilt by five points. Vanderbilt shot 12-for-23 in that outing to escape with a home victory. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette | Top | 68-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Sun Belt Play of the Day USA’s short rotation has not done well in the second of back-to-back games this season, and those losses occurred against opponents who were also playing without rest. Tonight’s opponent is a 17-6 team with rest, and 6’9" and 6’10" forwards the smaller Jaguars will be scrappin’ for rebounds against with their shorter, tired legs. It took us about three-and-a-half months to acknowledge the existence of Bob Marlin’s Ragin Cajuns and if they don’t come through for us, then we can go back to forgetting about them. |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Indiana isn’t supposed to have a losing record in head coach Archie Miller’s fourth season, are they? But they have one, following four straight losses, scoring only 57 and 58 in the last two vs. Michigan and Michigan State. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 25 points but only 4 rebounds when the Hoosiers lost 81-69 to the Boilermakers at home. They’ve been missing guard Armaan Franklin, #2 scorer and 45% three-point shooter. By all accounts, he’ll miss this |
|||||||
03-06-21 | South Florida v. Wichita State -11 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Wichita State has plenty at stake when they take the floor on Saturday. The |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Florida State -6 v. Notre Dame | 73-83 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida State will enter Saturday with a chance to clinch an outright ACC title with a win at Notre Dame. The Seminoles are playing terrifically this season while Notre Dame has not displayed much fight lately. Said Mike Brey, “We really haven’t had much the last two games - fighting. You can’t use pandemics and all that as an excuse. It’s a little bit of the pride of digging in and competing. We did that to get out of a hole at 0-5, but we haven’t shown any of that lately.” The Irish have struggled all year with physical and athletic teams, especially those who can switch defensively. Florida State is exactly that. |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Eastern Kentucky +2 v. Morehead State | 64-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anyone still craving Morehead after its 17-8 ATS regular season was warned by us, then got beat by a hair Wednesday night in what we feel was some foreshadowing for tonight. We’re pleased to take the points with an EKU side averaging 81.1 ppg in conference action as the defensively-led favorite scores less than 1.0 points per possession. |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Georgia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Play of the Day Georgia Tech’s season will once again be on the line when they take the floor against Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets simply can’t afford a loss, as they are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. One area where Georgia Tech has struggled at times, defending inside, is not likely to be exploited by Wake Forest. Said Steve Forbes after a loss against Pittsburgh this week, “We’re not a team that’s going to drive in there and finish every time. It’s deflating when you get to the rim and can’t finish.” |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Dayton +3.5 v. VCU | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Mismatch of the Day Taking two possessions worth of points on double-avenging Dayton. Not since Eric Maynor in 2009 (22.3 ppg) has VCU’s scoring leader averaged as many points per game as VCU’s Bones Hyland (19.2), who’ll be coming off a two-game absence and foot sprain if he plays. Given that second-leading scorer Vince Williams is playing through an injury and nobody else on the favored Rams averages more than 7.3 ppg, doesn’t Anthony Grant go with a box-and-one against Hyland? |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Evansville v. Indiana State -5 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Missouri Valley Play of the Day Indiana State will rally around head coach Greg Lansing this week, as rumors that he will not return have surfaced. In what would be a bizarre decision by Indiana State to let Lansing go, the Sycamores can put forth a great effort in Saint Louis this week. They’ll return starting guard Tyreke Key to the lineup after missing games due to injury and Lansing feels this team is ready to break through. “In our tenure, in our earlier years, we did well in the Valley tournament,” Lansing said. “Then we went on a stretch where we weren’t good enough, prepared enough and the guys weren’t competitive enough. We’re not happy not going over any winning games, but this team is different, a special group of young men.” |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Massachusetts v. St. Louis -7.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saint Louis easily took care of UMass on Monday, and the two teams now meet again in the quarterfinals of the A10 Tournament. The Billikens featured a bigger look in that meeting with the Minutemen, playing Hasan French more at forward next to centers Jimmy Bell or Martin Linssen. The played a part in Saint Louis dominating the glass, as they collected 46.7% of their own misses, on the way to a 78-57 win. |
|||||||
03-05-21 | Duquesne +8 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -122 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day Duquesne battled St. Bonaventure in both meetings this season before running out of steam late. Both games were one possession games after 30 minutes but at that earlier point of the season Duquesne’s conditioning was still an issue off of a program pause due to COVID-19. The Dukes are a physical bunch capable of playing a low scoring slugfest against the Bonnies. The Dukes ability to defend the three-point line, where they rank best in the A10, will be key against a St. Bonaventure attack that shot 37.5% from three-point range in conference play. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Not a good set-up for the Warriors. Following last night’s ding-donger defeat in Portland, they face the new "hottest team in the NBA" after a night flight into the Arizona desert, where the rested Suns await with some impressive recent numbers including: +14.8 points differential last eight games, including the second best offensive efficiency (1.24 points per possession) and fifth best defensive efficiency (1.09 points per possession) in that span. During it, the Suns are shooting 52.0%, tops in the league for the stretch, and turning it over only 11 times per game, fewest in the league. On Jan. 28, the Suns beat the Warriors by 21 points here without Devin Booker. 6’7" shooting guard Kelly Oubre (15.5 ppg, 5.7 reb in 30.3 minutes per) didn’t play for the Warriors last night |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | 107-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks tried to do the Thunder a favor last night by resting Luka Doncic. OKC could not take advantage, losing the game and the spread 87-78 in a Festival of Bad Shooting. You’ll recall that last week, the Spurs came off a pause to lose 102-99 in OKC on a last-second corner three-pointer by Lu Dort. San Antonio played that game off a 10-day forced break, without Demar DeRozan, Derrick White, Rudy Gay and Keldon Johnson. Only DeRozan and Johnson have returned since, but that should be enough to turn the tables sufficiently. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Texas +2 v. Oklahoma | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sooners are stinging off overtime and 4-point losses to Oklahoma State, but that doesn’t earn them the right to beat the avenging Longhorns, who lost to them 80-79 at home despite playing without head coach Shaka Smart, starters Jericho Sims and Courtney Ramey, and 17-minute reserve Brock Cunningham. Three more Longhorns fouled out and they were down to just five scholarship players at the bitter end. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | UCF -2.5 v. East Carolina | 64-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units East Carolina was just recently cleared to practice five on five on Monday, meaning the team won’t be anywhere quite near game shape once the ball is tipped off on Thursday night. East Carolina head coach Joe Dooley said his team will be down to nine scholarship players due to Bitumba Baruti being out with COVID-19 protocols, and Tyrie Jackson and Charles Coleman continuing to be sidelined with injuries. The Pirates saw five straight games postponed or canceled during their latest COVID-19 pause as a result of multiple positive tests. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Murray State -3 v. Jacksonville State | 65-68 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jax State did it all wrong over the weekend, getting season sweeps of Austin Peay and Murray State for the first time in school history. Too many milestones reached already! Although head coach Ray Harper is a wily tournament underdog from way back, we’d have to say that adjustments are now all on Murray State for this one, as well as the emotional edge of being the better-pedigreed program owning double-revenge in the win-or-go-home game. While most people see JSU as heading into this “the right way” with seven wins in last eight games, the only loss by a mere four points at #1 seed Belmont, we’ve long felt that this is closer to the “wrong way” than right. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Pistons v. Knicks -6.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Pistons are dead last in the Eastern Conference and they have struggled mightily on the road. Detroit’s best player this season, Jerami Grant, has been dealing with a bruised left quad. Detroit faced Toronto on Wednesday and they took advantage of the Raptors being shorthanded in the facile Pistons win. Toronto was missing several key players. The Spurs snapped a 3-game Knicks winning streak on Tuesday but New York was missing some key elements. Elfrid Payton was out with a hammy and Derrick Rose was dealing with health and safety issues. With a win the Knicks would go into the All-Star break a game over .500. Rookie Immanuel Quickley has been a bright spot. He had 26 points off the bench in the Tuesday loss and leads all rookies this season with games of 25 points or more. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Iowa State v. Texas Tech -17 | Top | 54-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day Rasir Bolton, Iowa State’s leader in points, rebounds, assists, steals – not to mention minutes with 33.6 per game! -- injured an ankle on Sunday and didn’t play in the second half. In Tuesday night’s hosting of Texas, Bolton did not play but two guards who played Bolton-like minutes when they normally don’t shot 2-for-11 and 1-for-8. If Iowa State was a good team, we’d say that these kids would definitely do better next time out. But their only 2 wins have been against low-Major competition. They’re not a good team. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Florida Atlantic -8.5 | Top | 50-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit C-USA Play of the Day Host FAU is a poor man’s version of the highly ranked Houston Cougars. They hit the offensive glass (11.4 ORs per game) and get many second-chance opportunities after missed three-pointers. But they make an above-average percentage of their threes: 38.0%. They are also in the national top 20 in defensive rebounding percentage. All of this would seem to work well against a 3-11 visitor that can’t shoot straight (.96 points per possession in C-USA games). |
|||||||
03-04-21 | George Washington +7.5 v. George Mason | 59-73 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units East Carolina was just recently cleared to practice five on five on Monday, meaning the team won’t be anywhere quite near game shape once the ball is tipped off on Thursday night. East Carolina head coach Joe Dooley said his team will be down to nine scholarship players due to Bitumba Baruti being out with COVID-19 protocols, and Tyrie Jackson and Charles Coleman continuing to be sidelined with injuries. The Pirates saw five straight games postponed or canceled during their latest COVID-19 pause as a result of multiple positive tests. |
|||||||
03-04-21 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -3.5 | Top | 66-100 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Atlantic 10 Play of the Day Massachusetts did not have the luxury of easing back into play off of their |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Boston College v. Florida State -18.5 | 64-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lobos are 2-14 in Mountain West action and have announced that head coach Paul Weir will not return next season. As further punishment, they’re making him coach until the season is over, which includes this road game (they’ve all been road games!) against a 15-4 overall CSU team eyeing first place as it enters 12-3 in conference, in a four-way logjam at the top with San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. The home favorite sports the top FG% in the conference, 48.6%, which includes the #1 three-point percentage of 38.4%. New Mexico’s three-point percentage is #11 in an 11-team league, 26.1%. The Lobos’ 59.4% free throw percentage is the worst of any main-betting board team. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Mississippi State -5 v. Texas A&M | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s been a difficult time for Texas A&M, as the Aggies have not played a game since January 30th. Head coach Buzz Williams said his team went a full month without having his full roster available for practice and in total could only complete eight partial practices throughout the month of February. They’ll take on a Mississippi State team that is in the flow of the SEC schedule and has avoided having any shutdown all season long. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big East Play of the Day Losses have been rare for Villanova since the formation of the new Big East, but when they do occur, the Wildcats respond strongly. Villanova is 22-13-2 against the spread after a loss, which they’re faced with here after a Sunday defeat at the hands of Butler. The motivation does not stop there for the Wildcats, as they also owe Creighton payback from their worst loss of the season on February 13th. In addition, Villanova is also hosting senior day for starters Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, two pillars of their program for the last four years. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Hornets -1 v. Wolves | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit The T’Wolves are lettin’ it fly. For the season, they’ve averaged a league-high 92.1 field goal attempts per game. But since the Saunders child was fired as head coach, replaced by the former Raptors’ assistant Chris Finch, they’re putting up 97.5 shots per game. The problem with that? With both D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley out, many of those shots are being taken by not-so-hot shooters, finding the net only 42.1% of the time. They’re hittin’ only 30.9% of their three-point attempts under Finch, and turning the ball over like crazy. Charlotte is 2-3 on their road trip, which ends here along with the first half of their season. They have a goal: go into their break following a .500 trip. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -17.5 | 73-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lobos are 2-14 in Mountain West action and have announced that head coach Paul Weir will not return next season. As further punishment, they’re making him coach until the season is over, which includes this road game (they’ve all been road games!) against a 15-4 overall CSU team eyeing first place as it enters 12-3 in conference, in a four-way logjam at the top with San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. The home favorite sports the top FG% in the conference, 48.6%, which includes the #1 three-point percentage of 38.4%. New Mexico’s three-point percentage is #11 in an 11-team league, 26.1%. The Lobos’ 59.4% free throw percentage is the worst of any main-betting board team. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Nets -9.5 v. Rockets | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Okay, Houston, we’ve had a problem here and we are not talking about Appolo 13. The Rockets have not won a game since Feb. 4 and in that win they had one of their best guys, Christian Wood, playing. Wood is out until after the All-Star break. Brooklyn, on the other hand, is rolling. They have only lost twice since Feb. 8. Brooklyn showed grit in the Monday win after the Spurs closed the game with a 10-point run but the Texans lost in overtime. James Harden should be up for this one as he is back to face his former club. The guy who coached him in Houston, Mike Dantoni, who left before they could fire him after his four-season run, is the Nets’ #1 assistant. |
|||||||
03-03-21 | Connecticut v. Seton Hall +1.5 | 69-58 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seton Hall finds itself in a desperate situation as the Pirates have lost consecutive games to Georgetown and Butler after having previously been safely on the right side of the bubble. The Pirates now can ill afford another loss and will not lack motivation when taking on the Huskies. It’s senior night for the Pirates and they’ll have fans inside the Prudential Center for the first time all season to send off star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The big man was a handful for the Huskies in their first meeting this season, as the versatile 6’11 forward totaled 22 points, seven rebounds and two assists in a 80-73 win. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Nuggets v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Denver has several guys with nagging injuries and guys that are dealing with protocol issues. Denver lost to this team by 13 last month when the Nuggets not only lost the battle of the boards but they lost on a night when the Bucks Khris Middleton was 0 for 5 from beyond the arc. This season, Khris is shooting at 43% from distance. The Bucks got Jrue Holiday back Sunday and although he played limited minutes and the rust was evident, Milwaukee still had enough to take care of the Clippers. As usual, Giannis Antetokounmpo did a little bit of everything with 14 boards, 5 assists, 4 blocks and a steal to go along with this 36 points. Bobby Portis has found a niche with Milwaukee. On Sunday, he had 9 points, 7 boards and 3 thefts in 21 minutes. It’s a tough spot for Denver in their current shape with no rest. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Purdue is playing their best at the right time , winning and covering their last three games. Purdue has a rising star in freshman guard Jaden Ivey, who has totaled 40 points in those last three games while playing exceptional defense. Ivey has brought a physical and athletic preference that the Boilermakers needed. Purdue has only allowed one team to produce 1.00 points per possession or more in the last seven games. Purdue has a few long and athletic perimeter defenders including Ivey and Eric Hunter that will make things difficult for Wisconsin guard, D’Mitrik Trice. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Youngstown State v. Oakland -3 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CBB Mismatch of the Day Oakland gets to restart its season at home after finishing the regular season on the road for four straight games, which included two double overtime losses. The Grizzlies now have had more than a week of rest and preparation to face a team they beat handily in two regular season meetings. In two wins over Youngstown State, Oakland’s offense was clicking, producing 1.17 and 1.20 points per possession. Point guard Jalen Moore was in full control of those outings, dishing a total of 26 assists. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Tulsa v. UCF -3 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Central Florida has played well against zone this season, ranking in the 74th percentile in points per possession against zone while shooting 36.7% from three-point range on the season. The Knights shot 13-of-28 against Tulsa’s zone in their first meeting this season, defeating Tulsa on the road. Tulsa has hit a low point in their season with fans starting to question Frank Haith’s job status. Tulsa could not take advantage of a recent five-game homestand, losing four of five and now have to face an improving UCF squad. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | IUPU Ft Wayne +7.5 v. Cleveland State | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Because Cleveland State finished in a tie atop the Horizon League, is the #1 seed, and went 3-1 SU and ATS against these Mastodons during the regular season, folks will assume that the first of the five meetings between the teams in Cleveland State’s arena is destined to go the way of the favored Vikings. That could be pre-historic thinking. We’ve already detailed IFPW’s high Effective Field Goal rate when we won our ***BEST BET with them at Wisconsin-GB last week in the opening round. Despite the good shooting, they’re a little sloppy. Their points per possession is only on a par with defensive-minded Cleveland State’s. But CSU is laying the highest number they’ve had to cover all season, in the most important game. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Auburn v. Alabama -11 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SEC Play of the Day First game for Alabama since clinching the SEC regular-season title with a low-scoring win at Mississippi State. Some will expect a letdown for the home favorite. We do not. It’s an opportunity to put away the school’s archrival at home, convincingly, and not get involved in another 94-90 game like the one they played at Auburn, which was the collegiate debut of the Tigers’ freshman point guard Sharif Cooper. Cooper played well, but now the Tide knows who he is. Others know him as the kid who didn’t play in either of Auburn’s last two games. Auburn can’t play in the post-season, so many will assume they’ll go nuts here. But Alabama knows that. They’ll be ready to punch back. |
|||||||
03-02-21 | Illinois v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 76-53 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day The 18-1 Wolverines have been darn near infallible against just about all comers. That their one loss came at Minnesota – who is 2-8 since – is pretty much the exception that proves the rule. They are 1 win away from clinching the Big Ten regular season title, with three games to play before the conference tournament. Illinois is their closest pursuer. The Illini’s star guard, Ayo Dosunmu, has been out with a broken nose. Illini head coach Brad Underwood made some recent comments about Michigan’s pause that Wolverines players may interpret as insulting. He also said, “These games mean nothing. There’s no Big Ten championship that means much. These games don’t mean much. They really don’t.” Seems like he’s more interested in pursuing a national championship, eh? |