Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -165 | 105-101 | Loss | -165 | 37 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans have won nine of their past 11 with both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram healthy, but we have to go Clippers at home. It is an advantage that they have an extra day of rest as well. The teams last played on April 3 in LA and the Clippers rolled by 19. Paul George and Robert Covington are very good defenders who can slow down Ingram (3-for-11 from the field in April 3 loss). George has been here/done that and will take over down the stretch offensively. The Clippers were 25-16 at home this season and New Orleans 17-24 on the road. |
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04-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's Seattle's home opener and that always means a bit more to the players. There will be a sellout (it's Jackie Robinson Day on Friday and I believe every player in the majors will be wearing No. 42). Seattle was 46-35 at home last year and this season's club looks much better on paper. M's lefty Marco Gonzales didn't look good in his season debut at Minnesota but went 9-1 after the All-Star Break with a 2.70 ERA last year so I'll call that a hiccup. Houston's Jake Odorizzi was 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts at Seattle in 2021. Runline at -160. Probably it for me today MLB-wise barring a star sitting out, pitching change, etc. |
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04-15-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -112 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I faded the Cubs in Denver -- where it seems they never play well -- on Thursday and that didn't work out, but I'm going back to it at this short price. It felt like the Rockies had two guys on base every inning last night but they simply couldn't cash in. Colorado starter German Marquez is one of those guys who for some reason tends to pitch better at Coors Field. He was 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA there last year and had a very strong 2022 home debut vs. the Dodgers (7 IP, 1 ER). No Cub has homered off him. One Chicago key reliever, Keegan Thompson, surely won't be available after 3.1 scoreless innings Thursday. He got the win. |
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04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs +2.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If this game were in Atlanta or even the Orlando bubble, I'd take the Hawks without a doubt. However, they were 16-25 on the road and haven't beaten a Top 10 team in either conference on the road since Jan. 23 (0-9). I'd still probably like Atlanta tonight ... but the Cavs are simply a MUCH better team, especially defensively, with Jarrett Allen and all signs point to the All-Star center returning from injury. (Note: I would take Hawks ML if for some reason Allen doesn't play.) Bogdan Bogdanovic (left ankle sprain) will be a game-time decision for the Hawks. I'm sure he plays but if even limited a little that's another edge for Cleveland, which has covered seven of its past nine as a home dog. Atlanta is 6-15 ATS in its past 21 away. |
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04-15-22 | Giants v. Guardians +136 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians have sneakily won four games in a row and they are actually leading the league in runs scored at 45 this season. They also return home for their home opener today. Carlos Rodon looked very good in his first start, but he actually didn’t do too well against the Guardians after pitching the no-hitter last year in his first start against them. Zach Plesac threw 5.2 shutout innings in his first start this season and he is more than capable of stealing a win. The Giants are still without many key bats and the Guardians are hitting lefties to a .443 wOBA right now. I like the Guardians in their home opener. |
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04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox -121 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Drew Rasmussen has been very good for the Rays each of the past two seasons, but he doesn’t get deep into the game. Well, that’s a problem considering the Rays bullpen has pitched 26.2 innings in the past 4 games. The starters have accounted for just 9.1 of the 36 innings pitched in the past four days. This bullpen is more than worn down and it was evident in the Athletics series. The White Sox essentially had yesterday off resting all their starters and not using any of their top bullpen arms, and they were one of the best home teams in the league last season. I honestly think Dylan Cease will win a Cy Young sometime soon, his stuff is that good. He’s not there yet but I love this matchup against a strikeout-heavy team in the Rays. Take the White Sox at home. |
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04-15-22 | Twins v. Red Sox -122 | 8-4 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nick Pivetta struggled in his first start but that was against the Yankees who he’s struggled against in his career. Joe Ryan didn’t pitch much better either in his first start on Opening Day and that was at home. This is the Red Sox home opener and I think Alex Cora will use every reliever at his disposal to try to pick up the win today after having yesterday off. This is still only Ryan’s 7th career start, and he should be getting the full brute of the Red Sox lineup today. Usually, I don’t take home openers into account much, but so far this season most teams have been winning them. I like the value on the Red Sox at home. |
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04-14-22 | Golden Knights v. Flames -153 | 6-1 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a mini-funk, the Flames have won five straight and are closing in on clinching the Pacific Division title. Calgary defensemen Oliver Kylington (27 points) and Erik Gudbranson (17 points) have each missed multiple games but both practiced Wednesday and are trending toward a return. Vegas is 2-8 in its past 10 as a dog. |
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04-14-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -118 | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colorado was off Wednesday and will have a full bullpen -- that group has the best ERA in the majors. The Rox looked good in their first home series last week in taking two of three from the Dodgers, and the Cubs definitely aren't the Dodgers. Chicago rookie Seiya Suzuki has been fabulous and was my pick for NL ROY, but the Cubbies have totaled just two runs in back-to-back games. Simply not much else there. Cubbies southpaw starter Justin Steele has never pitched at Coors Field so that's likely to be a wake-up call. Colorado is 3-0 vs. lefties. |
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04-14-22 | Blues v. Sabres +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I always hammer the Sabres as home puckline dogs (paying -140 here) and it has paid off as Buffalo is 23-14 ATS at home. The team's last home game? Mammoth upset of Carolina. The Blues are on a six-game winning streak but this feels like a bit of a letdown off a big comeback win in Boston on Tuesday and with a huge game vs. Minnesota on Saturday. STL has dropped its past four as a road favorite. |
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04-14-22 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs -155 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Important game for both in terms of playoff seeding. Washington is coming off a dominant win Tuesday and Toronto a bad home loss to Buffalo, yet I think this works in the Leafs' favor. More often than not, when a team goes crazy offensively in one game, it has a major letdown in the next. On the flip side, when a good team is embarrassed at home, it generally comes out with major energy the next game. Since returning from his rib injury, Leafs netminder Jack Campbell is undefeated in regulation with a 3-0-1 record. He obviously wasn't in net Tuesday. Toronto won the only previous meeting between the two teams this season, 5-3 in late February in DC. It's a fourth game in six nights for Washington, which has lost its past four in that scenario. |
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04-14-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Brewers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers travel after the Orioles game for their home opener in a 4:15 local time matinee. Not only do they have the quick turnaround but they also have all the pregame Opening Day festivities to get through. The Cardinals had yesterday off so all their top bullpen arms were able to rest. Devin Williams, Brad Boxberger, and Josh Hader are the three top Brewers bullpen arms and they all pitched each of the last two nights. Brandon Woodruff struggled in his first start allowing 7 ER in 3.2 IP against the Cubs. Adam Wainwright pitched 6 scoreless in his first start. The Cardinals were 11-8 overall against the Brewers last season and 7-3 in Milwaukee. Take the value in the Cardinals on the road. |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -114 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Kendall Graveman and Liam Hendriks pitched each of the last two days so they should be unavailable for the back of the White Sox bullpen while the Mariners have all their top arms available. Jimmy Lambert is making just his 7th career Major League appearance and 4th start overall and he wasn’t particularly impressive allowing 9 ER in 13 IP last season. Logan Gilbert pitched really well in his first start allowing just 1 ER in 5 IP. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see someone get the day off today for the White Sox. I like the Mariners to avoid the sweep today. |
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04-14-22 | A's v. Rays -208 | 6-3 | Loss | -208 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's a bit of a high price (I don't love -1.5 runlines) on Tampa Bay, but A's pitcher Cole Irvin wasn't very good last season and wasn't in his 2021 debut, either. Irvin was 1-10 with a 6.60 ERA and .890 OPS in 12 starts on four days rest last year (which he is on here). After facing Frankie Montas and losing Wednesday, I think the Rays tee off on Irvin. Tampa is 1-0 vs. lefties this year and was 11 over .500 against them last year. It's Josh Fleming for Tampa. He went 7-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 14 appearances (five starts) at home in 2021 and pitched 3.1 scoreless innings of relief at the Trop on Saturday vs. Baltimore. The Rays would need a win today to avoid losing a four-game series at home for only the third time since the start of the 2019 season. |
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04-13-22 | Brewers v. Orioles +160 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher. We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year. The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here. |
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04-13-22 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets -157 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither has really anything to play for but it frankly would benefit Montreal to lose out to finish with the fewest points in the league and the best chance to win the draft lottery. The Habs are 11 games under .500 on the road and Columbus three over at home. Elvis Merzlikins allowed one goal in Montreal in beating the Canadiens earlier this season. The Jackets are 13-3 in their past 16 as favorites. |
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04-13-22 | Indians +1.5 v. Reds | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians are absolutely killing the ball of late and get to face a rookie making his big-league debut in Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, a touted prospect but not an overpowering pitcher (see news feed). You have to figure some nerves. The Reds also are sitting two-thirds of their starting outfield in Tommy Pham and Nick Senzel after they collided in Tuesday's game. I'll pay the freight on the runline at -170 even though I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins outright. Note: This could get rained out/delayed |
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04-13-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year, Scherzer was 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia. The Phils are sitting one major weapon in Rhys Hoskins and really no Philadelphia hitter has had much career success vs. the three-time Cy Young winner. Phils pitcher Aaron Nola was meh in his season debut vs. Oakland. Pete Alonso (especially him) Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil all have good career splits off Nola. |
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04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting Pittsburgh on the runline is only 20 cents more than backing the Cubs on the moneyline (-129). Chicago's best pitcher is Kyle Hendricks and he was great in his season debut at Wrigley, but Hendricks has traditionally struggled on the road and the Pirates hammered him last year to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in five starts. Zach Thompson makes his Pittsburgh debut and he had a 3.24 ERA last year with Miami. He posted a 1.57 ERA in six appearances during the afternoon. The Bucs' Bryan Reynolds has gone 15-for-28 (.536) in his last nine game played at PNC Park. |
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04-12-22 | Padres v. Giants -102 | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Cobb will be making his Giants debut after coming off one of his best seasons in a while. These Padres hitters didn’t face him last season and I think that gives the pitcher an advantage. The Giants were just 11-8 against the Padres last season and 6-4 at home, which is why I laid off the Giants at -150 last night. However, this price is much more affordable facing a Padres team that used its top relievers last night. Yu Darvish pitched extremely well in his Opening Day start against the Diamondbacks, but he seriously struggled away from home last season. He was just 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road. Darvish pitched well in his two home starts against the Giants last year but he was hit hard in his only start in San Francisco. The Giants were one of the best home teams in the league last season, take the Giants at home. |
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04-12-22 | Astros -155 v. Diamondbacks | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Madison Bumgarner really struggled with command in his first start of the season walking four straight batters before being pulled after 3 IP. The Diamondbacks bullpen actually pitched pretty well that night and they were able to come back for the win. However, they lost three games in a row after that. The Astros were one of the best teams in the league last season at hitting lefties with the 4th best wOBA in the league. Madison Bumgarner did face the Astros once throwing a 7-inning gem last season, but I don’t see that happening again. The Astros were off yesterday so they have all their top bullpen arms available. They should also have everyone back in the lineup besides Yuli Gurriel, who is on paternity leave. Luis Garcia has another year of experience now and if he doesn’t pitch well, Dusty Baker has the option to go to his bullpen. Take the Astros on the road. |
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04-12-22 | Lightning -155 v. Stars | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Stars are very good at home but for some reason are starting mega-shaky Scott Wedgewood in net again instead of Jake Oettinger. In addition, winger Alex Radulov (21 points) has been ruled out with an illness. This is more about fading Wedgewood, though, against Andrei Vasilevskiy even though Andrei has lost his past three. Time to get right ahead of the postseason, and he has had a few days off. It's a third game in four nights for Dallas. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -150 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If this spread ticked up even a point higher, I'd probably take the points. I do think Minnesota wins at home, though. There might be an injury concern for LA with Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg) as well. Since the New Year, the Timberwolves boast the best offensive rating in the NBA. Their starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Karl-Anthony Towns has a net rating of 12.8, the second-best net rating in the league. The Clippers are seven games under .500 on the road. Minnesota is 11 over at home. |
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04-12-22 | Sharks v. Predators -195 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Sharks are playing out the string and Nashville absolutely can't afford to lose a game like this at home as it chases a playoff spot. I was waiting to make sure that Preds No. 1 goaltender Juuse Saros was cleared to start and he has been. Saros is 22-11 at home with a 2.15 GAA and 2-0 this year vs. San Jose, which has lost six straight games overall and has five road wins in its past 20. |
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04-12-22 | Dodgers -130 v. Twins | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Honestly, I am not really sure why the Dodgers are so cheap here. Heaney struggled in Spring Training, but once again, players don’t care about results in Spring Training. Andrew Heaney isn’t one of their top guys, but he is more than capable of pitching a gem at any point, and the Twins struggled against lefties last season ranked just 22nd in the league in wOBA. Heaney also faced the Twins once last season pitching a 7-inning gem, only allowing 2 ER. Chris Archer is starting for the Twins today and I am surprised he is still in the league. The Twins also used their top bullpen arms in their last two games, both wins. The Dodgers lost 2 of 3 games at Colorado but the Rockies were one of the best home teams in the league last season. The Dodgers had yesterday off so they should be ready and rested, take the Dodgers on the road. |
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04-12-22 | Hurricanes -119 v. Rangers | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hurricanes are ranked No. 2 in shots allowed and fourth in faceoff winning percentage, while the Rangers are 15th and 25th, respectively. Carolina owns a plus-380 shot differential, while New York is minus-156 this season. The Rangers posted a 2-0 road victory against the Hurricanes on March 20 despite being outshot 44-18. But New York has a revenge game at Philadelphia coming up on Wednesday, so take Carolina in this spot. |
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04-12-22 | Mets v. Phillies -145 | 2-0 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We got incredibly lucky on the Phillies coming back to beat the Mets on Monday but will roll the dice again on the home side behind 2021 NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler. He was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA at home last season and 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts against his former Mets team. Hey, and here's hoping that Alec Bohm isn't in the starting lineup for the Phillies after his three errors and F-bomb on Monday! (Bohm isn't in the lineup) New York did use four relievers last night because starter Taijuan Walker left early, so that group might be a bit thin. Tonight's NYM starter Tylor Megill was very good in his season debut but that was at weak-hitting Washington. Megill had a 7.71 ERA in 4.2 innings last year vs. the Phils. I'm a bit surprised this is only -150. |
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04-12-22 | Mariners v. White Sox -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line has been dropping so Ill happily take the White Sox now at this value. Matt Brash hasn’t pitched above double A and he has only played in the minor leagues for two seasons. He did pitch well in Spring Training which is why I think the public money is coming in on the Mariners, but the real thing is a completely different story. This will be the White Sox home opener and they should have their full lineup in. Vince Velasquez has struggled his past couple seasons but I don’t think he will pitch more than 3 innings today. The White Sox had yesterday off so they have all their bullpen arms available. Mariners also have a very good bullpen, and they should have their top arms available as well. However, the White Sox have a big lineup advantage, and they were very good at home last season at 53-28. Take the White Sox in their home opener. |
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04-12-22 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If you are going to tail, I recommend doing it soon because this total has dropped to 8 at many books. Cincinnati is a great hitters' park but the wind is blowing in a bit today and that game time should have some affect on batters in terms of shadows around home plate. Yes, the Guardians have been raking the past two days -- Steven Kwan!?!? -- in Kansas City but Reds starter Tyler Mahle was good in his season debut and is countered by former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber of the Guards (that's my shortened nickname for them), and he should largely shut down Cincinnati. |
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04-12-22 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tuesday will be the Red Sox's fifth straight game without a day off, and while that doesn't sound like much, I get the feeling Alex Cora will rest a regular or two with the early start -- plus, Trevor Story remains away from the team with an illness. We won on Tigers RL in this matchup Monday and will thus go right back to it. Detroit starter Tyler Alexander had a serviceable 3.81 ERA last year. The Sox start 85-year-old Rich Hill (not really 85 but sure feels like it). Can't imagine Hill is out there long at his age (42). He was blistered in his final spring start. Tigers RL at -140. |
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04-11-22 | Marlins v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The main reason I like this under is because both teams have their top bullpen options available. I don’t completely trust Elieser Hernandez or Michael Lorenzen, but both teams have options to bring players in early if need be. Neither of these teams have been scoring much lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a top bat on either side get the day off. I think this ends up around 5-4 at the highest, take the under. |
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04-11-22 | Nationals v. Braves -122 | 11-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wanna preface this with I have a feeling this line is completely off, but we still have to take advantage while its here. However, Josh Rogers made six starts last season and actually pitching pretty decently. He did have trouble with walks however, and 5 of the 6 teams he faced were in the bottom 10 in wOBA against lefties last season. The Braves were actually ranked just 20th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season, however they added a few key right handed bats in the offseason. I would expect Matt Olson to be the only lefty in the lineup today, and Rogers allowed a .286 BA against righties last season. The Braves won 14 of the 19 games between these teams last season and 6 of the last 7 games between them overall. Huascar Ynoa faced the Nats three times last season and didn’t allow an earned run in the first two while only allowing 2 ER in the third game. Take the Braves at home. This line did rise since I posted as expected, but I would still play it up to -160 or -170. |
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04-11-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees +1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand, I suppose, why the Yankees are home dogs (barely and they might not be much longer) but I'm going to take advantage of it at -165 on the runline because their starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, was much better at Yankee Stadium than away in 2021. The Bombers will also have closer Aroldis Chapman available after he wasn't going to be Sunday night. Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are both raking for NYY. |
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04-11-22 | Jets v. Canadiens +115 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Unfortunately, I don't really see a ton of value at Montreal -210 on the puckline, so we'll try for the outright upset. The Jets are playing the second of a back-to-back and expected to be without two of their top scorers in Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele. They have combined for 124 points. Scheifele is for sure out. Wheeler is doubtful. |
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04-11-22 | Mets v. Phillies -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets added a couple right-handed bats in Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the offseason that should help, but they were still ranked 25th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Both these teams also lost yesterday, so both teams should have just about every bullpen arm available. This is important for the Phillies because they don’t have much depth after their top arms. The Phillies were 47-34 at home last season and they were 6-3 against the Mets at home. Mets were a lowly 30-51 on the road last season despite winning 3 of 4 in Washington to start the season. Ranger Suarez was lowkey one of the best pitchers in the league last season finishing 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 IP. Taijuan Walker was solid against the Phillies last season, but he was also 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road. Take the Phillies at home. |
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04-11-22 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston will be at a decent disadvantage here having to travel late Sunday night after facing the Yankees (letdown game possibility as well). And, who knows, someone could get hurt Sunday, too. Trevor Story was out of the lineup with an illness so perhaps he doesn't play Monday, either. Monday's Sox starter Michael Wacha is nothing special; he had a 5.05 ERA last year with the Rays. Detroit was 2-1 at home vs. Boston in 2021 and is 5-2 in its past seven at home overall vs. a right-handed starter. |
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04-11-22 | Brewers v. Orioles +1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles aren't going 0-81 at home. Their starting pitcher, Bruce Zimmermann, had a decent 3.89 ERA at Camden Yards in 2021. The Orioles probably will draw flies most of the year but will have a big crowd today. Sometimes it's the little things. I also don't think the Milwaukee lineup is all that great. The Brewers have faced one lefty starter this year and didn't score off the Cubs' Justin Steele. Dating to last regular season, Milwaukee is 1-8 in its past nine on the road. |
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04-10-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Clippers | 88-138 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The teams have split their first two meetings, with the Clippers winning 99-94 on Nov. 1 in Los Angeles and the Thunder winning 104-103 on Dec. 18 in Oklahoma City. No one has benefitted from the Thunder's late-season roster makeover as much as Jaylen Hoard, who was signed to a 10-day contract at the start of the month and has started four of Oklahoma City's five games since. In his first 33 NBA games over the last three seasons before this most recent stretch, Hoard averaged 4.7 points and 1.9 rebounds. But after spending the majority of the season with the Oklahoma City's G League team, Hoard has averaged 17.8 points and 13.4 rebounds since joining the Thunder. Consider that the Thunder are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. |
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04-10-22 | Spurs +9.5 v. Mavs | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs played without four starters -- Dejounte Murray (upper respiratory illness), Devin Vassell (left heel soreness), Keldon Johnson (right knee soreness) and Jakob Poeltl (lower back soreness). San Antonio still found a way to cut a 17-point Golden State third-quarter lead to two points in the final seconds before succumbing. San Antonio has shown that it can compete with any team, even with a sometimes rag-tag lineup. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will use the final game to keep his players sharp. Consider that the Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14.5 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns (64-17), who have clinched the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, will be playing for the last time before hosting the eighth seed following the play-in tournament. Meanwhile, the Kings (29-52) will be wrapping up their season on the second night of a back-to-back on the road. They dropped a 117-98 decision to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Phoenix enters the finale having already won two more games than any previous team in franchise history. The 1992-93 and 2004-05 Suns shared the old mark with 62-20 seasons. With the exception of backup guard Cameron Payne (knee), the Suns enter the finale in great health, which Chris Paul said is crucial going forward. Consider that the Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. |
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04-10-22 | Heat v. Magic +10.5 | 111-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando (21-60) finishes at the bottom of the East, although the Magic showed improvement late in the campaign under first-year head coach Jamahl Mosley. Orlando is 8-13 since the All-Star break. The majority of NBA teams dealt with injuries and COVID-19 issues this season, but the Magic were hit particularly hard. On Dec. 17, Miami won 115-105 in Orlando as the Magic signed four players to 10-day contracts that day after losing five players to health and safety protocols. Overall, the Magic had 25 different starting lineups in 81 games. The most promising group -- big men Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, guard Cole Anthony and rookies Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs -- made 34 starts with Orlando going 13-21 (.382) in those games. Consider that the Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons v. 76ers -12 | 106-118 | Push | 0 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When the Philadelphia 76ers host the Detroit Pistons in the regular-season finale for both today, it will be a contest between one team with incentive to win, and another with a slight incentive to lose. The 76ers enter with a chance to improve their playoff seeding in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia enters at 50-31, tied with Boston for the third-best record in the East, but Boston holds the tiebreaker for the No. 3 seed owing to a better record within the Atlantic Division. But while Boston has to play its regular-season finale at Memphis, the second-best team in the Western Conference, Philadelphia gets to host Detroit (23-58), the second-worst team in the East. Opportunity could definitely be knocking for the 76ers to move up into the No. 3 spot in the East playoffs, which would mean a first-round matchup against slumping Chicago instead of red-hot Toronto. |
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04-10-22 | Sabres v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 7-2-1 in Sabres last 10 games as an underdog, 10-4-1 in Sabres last 15 Sunday games, and 14-6-3 in Sabres last 23 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. While the Over is 8-1 in Lightning last 9 vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 5-1 in Lightning last 6 overall, and 5-1 in Lightning last 6 games as a favorite. |
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04-10-22 | Astros -106 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Astros sat Alex Bregman last night and Yuli Gurriel was placed on the paternity list, and they still only lost 2-0. All the Angels top bullpen arms pitched while all the Astros top bullpen arms were able to rest as well. Bregman should be back in the lineup today, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Angels rest one of their top guys as well. Astros are 15-7 against the Angels since the start of last season and they were the fourth best team in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Jose Suarez actually faced the Astros twice last season and pitched well both times, however I think if the Astros keep it close they will win it in the bullpens. |
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04-10-22 | Brewers -120 v. Cubs | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are giving a lot of their regulars the day off, including Wilson Contreras, Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom. Marcus Stroman is making his debut, and I think he will be very good for the Cubs this season, however the Brewers should get a breath of fresh air avoiding a lefty today. The Brewers were the second best team in the league on the road last season, and they were 8-2 at Wrigley Field. Take the value on the Brewers on the road to avoid the sweep. |
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04-10-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 10-1 | Loss | -140 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the White Sox are a little overvalued on the road here, they were an under .500 team on the road last season at just 40-41. The Tigers were 42-39 at home last season. Michael Kopech has elite stuff but he has yet to be stretched out as a Major League starter and he has command issues. Tarik Skubal pitched well in his first two starts against the lefty crushing White Sox last season, and he actually doesn’t have a ton of trouble with righties like we would expect a lefty to have. Tim Anderson is back in the lineup for the White Sox but Yasmani Grandal is out. The Tigers just swapped Victor Reyes for Akil Baddoo which is an improvement after watching his ABs yesterday. Take the value on the Tigers at home. |
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04-09-22 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 8-2-1 in Coyotes last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, 9-3-5 in Coyotes last 17 vs. Pacific, and 5-2-2 in Coyotes last 9 following a loss of 3 or more goals. While the Over is 6-2 in Golden Knights last 8 games as a home favorite, 11-4 in Golden Knights last 15 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 19-7-1 in Golden Knights last 27 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. |
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04-09-22 | Sharks v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 5-1 in Sharks last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. While the Over is 7-1-1 in Canucks last 9 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game, 6-1 in Canucks last 7 vs. Pacific, 9-2 in Canucks last 11 games as a home favorite, and 9-2-1 in Canucks last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +6.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs head back to San Antonio for their final home game of the season after a 127-121 loss at Minnesota on Thursday that snapped their five-game road winning streak. Despite the loss, San Antonio (34-46) is still in the running for the ninth spot and a home game in the play-in tourney, but the Spurs will have to win their final two games and have New Orleans lose both of its final two. The Spurs own the tiebreaker with the Pelicans via a 3-1 edge in head-to-head play. Consider that the Warriors are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite. |
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04-09-22 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Under is 3-1-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 home games and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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04-09-22 | Flames v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 5-1 in Flames last 6 Saturday games, 16-6-4 in Flames last 26 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, and 8-3-2 in Flames last 13 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 2-0-2 in Kraken last 4 Saturday games and 5-2 in Kraken last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. |
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04-09-22 | Mets -137 v. Nationals | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets won the first two games of this series handily and they did it mostly off the Nats bullpen. The Nats bullpen should continue to be featured here heavily as Joan Adon will be making just his second career start for the Nats. Chris Bassitt is coming off a career year and will be making his Mets debut. Since the trade deadline last season, the Mets have won 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. The Mets also used their top bullpen guys in Game 1 so they should all be available for this game. Francisco Lindor was hit in the face by a pitch yesterday and the Mets have been frustrated all series about the number of HBPs. I think they come out focused today looking to start 3-0. |
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04-09-22 | Red Sox +140 v. Yankees | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Honestly, I don’t trust Nick Pivetta much and I don’t trust the Red Sox bullpen. However, Pivetta did pitch well in his most recent start against the Yankees last season and the Yankees bullpen isn’t is too much of a better place. Luis Severino is making just his fourth start since 2019 and he has pitched just 18 innings since then. He also seriously struggled in Spring Training walking a lot of batters while striking out fewer than normal. These teams are about as evenly matched as two teams get and either team could win any game when they get together. Take the value in the Red Sox. |
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04-09-22 | Marlins v. Giants -142 | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm huge Carlos Rodon guy as a White Sox fan. If he's right, he's awesome. Was a Cy Young contender for a while last year. The problem is that he's often injured. He is healthy now with the Giants and I don't think the slap-hitting Marlins will touch him. Cheap price. |
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04-09-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -154 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mitch Keller is getting the start for the Pirates and he has looked much better this season, even touching 100mph at times. However, the Pirates don’t have a great bullpen behind him, and he shouldn’t go more than 5 innings. Miles MIkolas is coming off a shortened season because of injuries but he did pitch solid in his only two starts against the Pirates last season. The Cardinals were able to avoid their top bullpen arms with their beatdown of Pittsburgh in Game 1, and they had a day off anyway for their guys to rest. I like the Cards at home to win again, especially at this value. |
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04-09-22 | Devils v. Stars OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 21-6-1 in Devils last 28 road games, 19-6-1 in Devils last 26 games as a road underdog, 20-7-3 in Devils last 30 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game, and 27-11-2 in Devils last 40 games as an underdog. While the Over is 5-2-1 in Stars last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game and 13-6-1 in Stars last 20 home games. |
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04-09-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +122 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think Dylan Cease is going to win a Cy Young someday, his stuff is honestly that good. However, he is still young, and he shouldn’t go deep in the game in his first start of the season. The White Sox also used all their top pitchers yesterday trying to pick up the win, including a 33-pitch outing from Liam Hendriks and 1.2 IP from Kendall Graveman, so even if they do pitch they shouldn’t be as effective. The White Sox have a ton of depth in their bullpen but they were also under .500 on the road last season at 40-41. The Tigers were over ,500 at home at 42-39 and they get their top righty on the mound in Casey Mize. Tim Anderson is still out and Yoan Moncada is on the IL. Casey Mize faced the White Sox three times last season pitching two quality starts, and he should have success against a righty heavy lineup. Take the value in the Tigers at home. |
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04-09-22 | Pacers +14.5 v. 76ers | 120-133 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In Tuesday's matchup with the Sixers, Malcolm Brogdon sat (rest) and Goga Bitadze was sidelined with a foot injury. Chris Duarte last played on March 15, shut down for the season due to a toe injury. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, additions in a February trade from the Sacramento Kings for Domantas Sabonis, have emerged as two of Indiana's primary offensive weapons at 17.4 and 18.3 points, respectively, per game. Haliburton scored 21 and Hield had 25 points in Tuesday's loss to the Sixers. Consider that the Pacers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. |
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04-08-22 | Suns v. Jazz -130 | 111-105 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The NBA-leading Suns, who have the most wins in franchise history, already have clinched the top seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs, so small victories in a harmless loss can be worthwhile. Cameron Payne was the only starter in double figures for the Suns, with 13 points. Ish Wainright scored a career-best 20, Bismack Biyombo contributed 14 points and 12 rebounds, and Aaron Holiday scored 16. Consider the Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. |
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04-08-22 | Hawks v. Heat +1.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Miami Heat can clinch the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference on tonight when they host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami (52-28) enters its 2021-22 regular-season home finale fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season in a 144-115 rout of the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. Highlighting the blowout win -- the Heat's fifth straight victory -- was Tyler Herro scoring a career-high 35 points off the bench. Herro paced four Miami scorers who had at least 21 points, a quartet that also comprised Jimmy Butler with 27, Bam Adebayo with 22 and Duncan Robinson with 21 off the bench (all on 3-pointers). In addition, the Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. |
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04-08-22 | Cavs v. Nets -7 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets entered Thursday with a 1 1/2-game lead over the Hornets, who hosted the Orlando Magic - the same team that beat the Cavaliers on Tuesday as Cleveland continued to falter without Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. The Cavaliers are 6-10 since Allen fractured his finger in a 104-96 win over the Toronto Raptors on March 6. Mobley has missed the past five games with an ankle injury, and Cleveland's only win during that stretch was Saturday's 119-101 victory at New York. The Cavs lost 120-115 in Orlando on Tuesday when they allowed 16 3-pointers and the Magic to shoot 50.5 percent from the field. Consider that the Cavaliers are 19-51-2 ATS in their last 72 games following a ATS loss. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks +1.5 v. Wizards | 114-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington moved to as many as seven games over .500 (at 10-3 on Nov. 15) before enduring a gradual descent. The Wizards have won back-to-back games just three times since Jan. 1 and fell under the break-even mark for good with a 116-87 loss to the Boston Celtics on Jan. 23. The loss Wednesday to the Hawks -- who are in ninth place in the Eastern Conference -- was the 24th in the past 36 games for the Wizards, who are using the final week of the season to experiment with a tall lineup. Consider that the Knicks are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. |
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04-08-22 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -155 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Weirdly enough, the Blue Jays have actually lost 10 straight games on Opening Day. However, I think that streak ends here. Usually, I don’t play teams just because they’re at home, but this is a different home game. This will be the first actual Toronto Opening Day since 2019 and you know that city is fired up about their team. Blue Jays also swept the Rangers when they played in Toronto last season. Jose Berrios didn’t allow a hit in his first start last season and he pitched a quality start when he faced them last June. Berrios went on a ridiculous run pitching 7 straight quality starts to end the season as well. Rangers haven’t been much better on Opening Day, losing 6 of their last 8 games. They signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in the offseason, but they don’t have much depth other than that. Some might think getting away from Coors Field will pay immediate dividends, but Gray was actually worse on the road at 3-7 5.22 ERA last season. His career ERA is also slightly worse on the road. Take the Blue Jays at home. |
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04-08-22 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -172 | 2-1 | Loss | -172 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes have continued down opposite paths since meeting in the season opener. The teams are far apart in the Metropolitan Division standings heading into their Friday night matchup in Raleigh, N.C. The Hurricanes sit atop the division standings as they gear up for another postseason run, while the Islanders are peeking ahead to next season. New York and Carolina met on Oct. 14 in Raleigh, and the Hurricanes won 6-3 behind two goals and an assist from Andrei Svechnikov. The clubs haven't faced off since. Carolina (46-17-8, 100 points) remained hot after the season-opening victory, winning its first nine games. The Hurricanes haven't slowed much, owning the top spot in the division standings for most of the season and officially clinching a playoff berth with a 5-3 home win against the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night. Consider that the Islanders are 0-9 in the last 9 meetings. |
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04-08-22 | Marlins v. Giants -135 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giants won 107 games last season including going 54-27 at home. Logan Webb is getting his first Opening Day start and he was 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA last season. He was also 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Webb faced the Marlins in April last season and pitched 7 innings without allowing a run. The Marlins were just 25-56 on the road last season. Sandy Alcantara was very good last season posting a 3.19 ERA, although he somehow went 9-15. He also faced the Giants twice in April last season not pitching particularly well in either game. The Giants had the best record in the league last season yet they are just -140 at home to open the season against a team that didn’t make the playoffs. Take the Giants to win on Opening Day. |
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04-08-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday game. Colorado was an absolute ATM on the runline at home last year, so I'm going to keep playing the Rockies (+110 here) as such until they prove to me that 2022 will be different. It will be Kris Bryant's regular-season debut for the Rox. It's Walker Buehler on the mound for LA, and he's my Cy Young pick but had a 4.86 ERA in three Coors Field starts in 2021. I honestly don't care if Colorado wins the game, just lose by one. |
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04-08-22 | Orioles v. Rays -178 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays went 18-1 against the Orioles last season. Rays were also 53-30 at home last season while the Os were 25-56 on the road. The Orioles actually hit lefties decently well last season. However, Shane McClanahan faced the Orioles 4 times last season, all in July or later. He pitched at least 5 innings allowing 3 runs or fewer in all 4 of those starts. The Rays tend to struggle against lefties, however they faced John Means 4 times last season and his best outing was a five inning, 1 ER performance that they still lost. I don’t think either pitcher will go very deep into the game, and the Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season. As long as this stays under -200, take the Rays on their Opening Day. |
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04-08-22 | A's v. Phillies -170 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Athletics lineup is bad with a capital B. I think the public has caught on to the Athletics being bad, but I don’t think they realize how bad they will be. Frankie Montas could pitch well but the As don’t really have any options after that besides Lou Trivino and AJ Puk. Aaron Nola has been very hit or miss the last couple seasons, but when he has had trouble, it has been with the home run. Well, there aren’t any home run hitters in this Athletics lineup anymore. Seth Brown, maybe, but that’s it. The Phillies added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to an already potent lineup, and they added bullpen arms in Brad Hand and Corey Knebel as well. They were also 47-34 at home last season, take the Phillies at home as long as they’re under -200. |
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04-08-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox are without All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson and third baseman Yoan Moncada today. Moncada isn't that big of a deal (out a few weeks injured) but Anderson (two-game suspension) is because he's the key to that offense. The Pale Hose were basically a .500 team last year without Anderson and 23 games over .500 when in there. Chicago does crush lefties and the Tigers are starting southpaw and new acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez, but, again, Anderson is a big part of that. The Tigers look pretty darn good on paper offensively, especially after landing Austin Meadows in trade earlier this week from Tampa Bay. Chicago pitcher Lucas Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA last year against the Tigers and their lineup is way better in 2022. |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm not about to predict an Arizona win, but I'll be taking home teams at +1.5 on the runline often this season and we pay only -115 here. That strategy has worked absolute wonders in hockey, and batting last in MLB is even a bigger advantage than having the last line change in the NHL. San Diego's lineup simply isn't the same without Fernando Tatis -- and SD struggled against lefties in 2021 even with Tatis in there. Friars starting pitcher Yu Darvish was horrible on the road last year (2-7, 5.54 ERA). Snakes southpaw starter Madison Bumgarner isn't what he used to be but still more than capable of an excellent outing. |
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04-07-22 | Astros +115 v. Angels | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 33 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels were just 17th in the league at hitting lefties last season although their lineup is looking much healthier. The Astros were also 13-6 against the Angels last season. Framber Valdez is coming off a long playoff run where he played a big role for the Astros. However, he didn’t debut last season until the end of May so the long season shouldn’t affect him. Valdez pitched 6 quality starts in his first 7 games last season and he faced the Angels twice. He allowed 4 ER in 5 IP in his first start against them, then dominated in his second start now allowing a run in 7 IP. Shohei Ohtani is coming off an MVP season, but it did take him a little while to get settled in last year. He faced the Astros twice and also had one very good start and one very bad start. He has actually never beaten the Astros, he is 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA against them in five starts. The Astros lost Carlos Correa, but they still went to the World Series last season and return everyone else. Take the Astros as underdogs. |
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04-07-22 | Predators v. Senators +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We will keep hammering our home puckline dogs, getting the Sens +1.5 Thursday at a reasonable price of -150. They did lose in Nashville 4-1 a little over a week ago, but Ottawa has won three in a row since and generally doesn't lose by more than one at home if it doesn't win outright -- at least in recent weeks. The Preds may be in letdown mode off Tuesday's home upset of Minnesota and also looking ahead to a home game against the high-flying Panthers on Saturday. Nashville has dropped its past three away. |
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04-07-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets -124 | 4-1 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he Blue Jackets won 4-2 in Philadelphia on Tuesday to snap a seven-game losing streak, and Columbus is a much better team at home. The Jackets still have outside playoff hopes, while Philly is playing out the string and has all of nine road wins. The Flyers are 30th in the NHL at just 2.57 goals per game and the power play is last at 12.8 percent. Columbus has won 14 of its past 17 as a favorite. |
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04-07-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -185 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Our first MLB pick of the season! Think I will be fading the Pirates about 100 times this season. They are going to be terrible and may trade their best player, Bryan Reynolds, by Opening Day. One of the NL Rookie of the Year favorites is 6-foot-7 Bucs shortstop Oneil Cruz, but the team is starting him in the minors for service time reasons. It will be the final Opening Day for Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright and catcher and future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina (and presumably for newly signed Albert Pujols as well). Wainwright had a 2.74 ERA at home last season and was 4-0 with a 0.30 ERA in four starts against the Pirates. JT Brubaker is scheduled on the mound for Pittsburgh. He was 5-13 with a 5.36 ERA last year. |
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04-07-22 | Brewers v. Cubs +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, I have to bet the first game of the season, don't I? Although this is in some jeopardy weather-wise, like many across the majors on Opening Day (two already postponed). It's reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Brewers, but the winds blowing out fierce might actually be in Chicago's favor. I'm still not overly impressed with that Milwaukee lineup and the Cubs' should be better with the likes of Nick Madrigal and my pick for NL Rookie of the Year, Seiya Suzuki. Clint Frazier could be a sneaky pick for NL Comeback Player of the Year. Cubbies starter Kyle Hendricks usually pitches better at Wrigley. Getting Chicago even money on the runline is worth it. This will be our full-time introduction to the universal DH. |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers -138 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is meaningless because the Suns and Clippers are locked into their playoff seeding, but I will be stunned if Phoenix plays any key guys in the second of a back-to-back and having set the franchise record for wins in Tuesday's victory over the Lakers. There's simply nothing else to accomplish in the regular season. |
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04-06-22 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -165 | 5-1 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vancouver has lost three straight and nine of 12 and is really banged up. Brock Boeser (19 goals, 19 assists) is for sure out Wednesday and Quinn Hughes (5G, 48A) is in doubt. Vegas prevailed 3-2 in OT at Vancouver on Sunday and has won five in a row. No. 1 goaltender Robin Lehner returned Sunday from a long injury absence and looked pretty good. The Knights also have won five in a row at home |
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04-06-22 | Flames v. Ducks +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anaheim is in a free-fall, but Calgary has lost three of four and that win was by a goal at the Kings on Monday (which we won on the puckline). With the Flames playing again Thursday in San Jose, I believe there's a good chance it's backup Dan Vladar in net here. Again, I don't think the Ducks have much of a chance to win, but getting them -120 against taking Calgary -260 on the road is the smart wager. Anaheim is 20-17 ATS at home. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies are on an insane heater right now. They have won seven straight, going 6-1 ATS during that stretch. They rested just about all of their key players in their last game against the Suns, and still won by eight points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have lost six of their last seven games and went 0-7 ATS during that stretch. I like the Grizzlies to keep this close, if not win outright. |
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04-05-22 | Wild v. Predators +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are playing great hockey, but this is their third straight very tough opponent on the road since Saturday. The Preds are well-rested having been off since Friday and frankly need this more in the Western Conference playoff chase. This is a big price and I might play it with something TBA off-site (will wait on some injuries/goaltending choices to decide which), but I have a hard time seeing Nashville lose by more than a goal at home, where it has won six of seven. The Predators have won nine of their last 10 games vs. the Wild. Norris Trophy candidate Roman Josi has a whopping eight points in the two wins this season for Nashville. We are going to have to get used to expensive +1.5 pucklines for the playoffs. |
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04-05-22 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers -159 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I faded the Leafs in Tampa on Monday night unfortunately, and Toronto was incredibly impressive in a 6-2 victory behind an Auston Matthews hat trick. If the Leafs can pull off the Tampa/Sunrise double in a back-to-back, well kudos because it's incredibly rare for any team to complete the Florida Sweep at all -- much less in 24 hours. Plus, it's rookie Eric Kallgren in net tonight for Toronto, and he has allowed at least three goals in four straight outings. I usually go Under 7 goals, which is the total here, but I simply can't do it this time. I won't be going Over, though, either. |
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04-05-22 | Hurricanes v. Sabres +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If the books are going to keep giving us great Sabres puckline prices (-122 here), I'm going to continue cashing. While I didn't play them Sunday vs. Florida in a two-goal loss, Buffalo had at least one point in the eight previous games, and all we need is a point to guarantee a puckline victory. At home this season, Buffalo is a stellar 22-14 ATS. Carolina is slightly under .500 ATS on the road. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -190 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit Tournament Game of the Year Jayhawks' focus on shot quality more than volume. They're making 40.6 percent of their 3-pointers in the tournament, and on Saturday they matched Villanova's 13 treys while attempting seven fewer (24 to Villanova's 31). The Tar Heels are shooting 36 percent on 3-pointers. Consider that the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. |
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04-04-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Solid price at -122 on the puckline for Columbus, which is four games over .500 at home but has lost six in a row overall (thus the good price). The SportsLine Projection Model has the Jackets winning outright. Not sure I agree with that. The Bruins might take this one for granted as they beat visiting Columbus 5-2 on Saturday and play again Tuesday. Top Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski (42 points) will return from injury tonight and that's big. Coach Brad Larsen is back from COVID protocols apparently. It's Linus Ullmark in net for Boston and he's a bit of a step down from Jeremy Swayman. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -4 | 81-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Duke and Carolina take the court in the Superdome tonight following the first national semifinal between Villanova and Kansas. This is the first time the rivals have met in the Final Four. It's the 258th game between the college basketball behemoths. Krzyzewski has five national titles on his resume. To get a sixth, the Blue Devils need to solve what ailed them in the 13-point home loss on March 5. However, consider that the Tar Heels are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as an underdog. |
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04-02-22 | Wild +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Carolina is excellent, but we are getting a decent day-before price on the Wild puckline (-160 as of now that probably only goes up), and Minnesota is quite good itself. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (26 points) remains out for the Canes. Should be Marc-Andre Fleury in net for Minnesota, and he has been energized by the trade from Chicago, going 2-0 with only three goals allowed in a Wild uniform. |
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04-02-22 | Maple Leafs v. Flyers +1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going to jump this one early as we get the Flyers at -110 on the puckline. The Leafs are of course the much better team but also starting Jack Campbell in net -- he has been out since March 8 due to injury and had been horrible in five straight outings before being shut down. A couple of other regulars are out injured. The Flyers have lost three straight but those were all away. Their past two home games: Upsets of the Islanders and Predators. Philly can at worst stay within a goal Saturday. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas -4 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Wildcats will be missing a key component when the squads battle on Saturday in New Orleans for a spot in the national championship game. Villanova standout Justin Moore tore his right Achilles in the final minute of the Wildcats' 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight on March 26. Moore underwent surgery, and the Wildcats are dissecting how to best fill his minutes and responsibilities. Backup Caleb Daniels is expected to slide into the starting lineup for the second-seeded Wildcats (30-7). Kansas has received stunningly good play in the NCAA Tournament from Remy Martin. Not once did Martin reach the 20-point mark in the regular season, but he has done so twice during March Madness and was named Most Outstanding Player of the Midwest Region after Kansas routed Miami 76-50 in the Elite Eight. Consider that the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. |
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04-02-22 | Penguins v. Avalanche OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 overall and 4-1-2 in Penguins last 7 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 6-1-1 in Avalanche last 8 vs. Eastern Conference, 9-2 in Avalanche last 11 vs. Metropolitan, and 7-3 in Avalanche last 10 Saturday games. In addition the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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04-02-22 | Panthers v. Devils OVER 7 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Over is 23-6-2 in Panthers last 31 vs. Eastern Conference, 21-6-2 in Panthers last 29 games playing on 1 days rest, 20-6-2 in Panthers last 28 vs. Metropolitan, and 15-5-1 in Panthers last 21 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. While the Over is 18-7-3 in Devils last 28 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game, 25-10-2 in Devils last 37 games as an underdog, and 15-7-1 in Devils last 23 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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04-01-22 | Blues v. Oilers -140 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great matchup and the Blues are certainly capable of winning but Edmonton is feeling it at home on an eight-game winning streak. The franchise record is nine. Connor McDavid has scored in back-to-back games and has eight goals in his last 11 games as part of an 11-game point streak (8G, 13A). The Oilers (4.70) and Blues (3.90) are averaging the first and third-most goals per game since March 10. Jordan Kryou (62 points) is iffy for St. Louis. |
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04-01-22 | Senators v. Red Wings -115 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I really had no interest in this game between bad teams but will roll with the Wings at home because Ottawa is giving Mads Sogaard his first-ever NHL start in net. The 6-foot-7 Sogaard was 16-13-1, with a 2.87 goals against average and .906 save percentage with Belleville of the American Hockey League this year. His NHL experience amounts to one exhibition period in September. I'm always going to fade a rookie netminder in his first start on the road. |
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04-01-22 | Raptors v. Magic +11.5 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This feels a bit like a trap game for Toronto, which comes off a four-game homestand that featured three games against playoff teams. It's a weird one-game road trip to Orlando and then back to Toronto for four games, including a potential playoff preview vs. Miami on Sunday. It wouldn't stun me if the Raptors rested a starter tonight, either. I'm not expecting the Magic to win or anything, but they should be able to stay within 10. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in its past eight as a dog. |
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04-01-22 | Predators v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has been an absolute cash cow on the puckline over the past few weeks. Either the Sabres win outright or lose by a goal in overtime it seems. It's so nice when a game goes to OT/shootout and I don't give a fudge about the winner. Nashville has lost three of its past four on the road. |
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04-01-22 | Islanders v. Rangers -159 | 3-0 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No. 1 goaltender Ilya Sorokin is out. Just from what I'm reading, it's more likely than not he also misses Friday, which probably means Cory Schneider gets the call in the second of a B2B and the Rangers should torch him. If it's Schneider, who hasn't played in the NHL this season, this ML will rise quite a bit. The Isles are 4-12 in their past 16 in the second of a B2B and have nothing to play for. The Blueshirts are on a four-game winning streak and have playoff seeding/potential division title to care about. |
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03-31-22 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -200 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units News just broke that Winnipeg leading scorer Kyle Connor (41 goals, 41 assists) and top-six defenseman Nate Schmidt (31 points) tested positive for COVID, so they are not playing tonight (which works out nicely since I took the Sabres on the puckline) or Thursday or Saturday. Some books will post lookahead lines for NHL teams that play the night before like Winnipeg here, some won't. This ML will certainly jump. |
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03-30-22 | Jets v. Sabres +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo has won six of nine and two of those three losses were at least in overtime, which is obviously all we need here on the puckline. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck is 9-11-7 with a 3.12 GAA on the road. It's the Jets' first road game in 10 days and ahead of a rivalry matchup in Toronto on Thursday. |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M -125 | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's grab this dominant Texas A&M squad to advance to the NIT final. They've been playing very strong basketball, winning 10 of their last 11 games and only taking a loss to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. They've also kept opponents under 66 points in all of their last 6 games. I think they will again be able to lean on their defense and keep this Washington State team at bay. |
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03-29-22 | Avalanche v. Flames -140 | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This could easily be a Western Conference Finals preview and really I'm just taking the home side. The Avalanche are 1-5 in their past six as dogs and are still down Gabriel Landeskog (59 points) ... and, in a surprise, have ruled out Nathan MacKinnon (70 points) as well. So this ML may rise a bit. Calgary has won 17 of its past 21 at home. |
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03-29-22 | Bucks +105 v. 76ers | 118-116 | Win | 105 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks and 76ers are tied with a 46-28 record and both could finish anywhere from first to fourth in the Eastern Conference, so this is an important game. The Bucks haven’t been at full strength for a while, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday all missing time recently. However, they should all play in this game, and Brook Lopez is back starting at center. I think the Bucks want to make a statement here that they are still the team to beat in the East, so look for them to pull out the victory. |