Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-21 | Cavs +10 v. Suns | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers burned me Friday, but I’m going to give them another chance. The Suns have not been playing well, posting a 1-3 record that has included a 29-point loss to the Trail Blazers and a three-point loss at home to the Kings. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have impressive road wins over the Nuggets and Clippers. I expect them to put up a good fight here. |
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10-30-21 | Magic +6 v. Pistons | 103-110 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons are 1-3 against the spread and 0-4 straight up. They've lost every game by at least six points and their average margin of defeat is 13.25 points. While Cade Cunningham's NBA debut could make things interesting, I don't think he's enough to warrant backing the NBA's worst scoring offense. The Magic are 2-2 against the spread on the road and have covered against the Knicks and Raptors. I trust their established rotation and pesky, young defenders against a winless team. |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly, |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -13.5 v. Florida | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Florida had lost three straight in this rivalry until a big 44-28 win last year in Jacksonville. Both teams have had a bye to prepare this year, and I don’t think top-ranked Georgia is very happy about last year's loss. I also don’t think Florida is as bad as it showed in a 49-42 upset at LSU two weeks ago. I’m expecting the Gators' two QBs to have trouble, turn the ball over and the Dawgs to capitalize. Georgia has the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing only 6.6 ppg. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Big-12 Game of the Week Yes, Jim Harbaugh can call on revenge from last year’s 27-24 loss to the Spartans as 21-point home chalk, but the fact is Michigan has covered just once in its last five tries when playing with conference revenge. While the Wolverines have taken exceptional care of the football this season with only four turnovers in seven games, we look for a flying-all-over-the-field MSU ‘D’ to force a few key errors that turn the tide in their favor. With that, consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away versus undefeated opponents. In addition playing on any 5-0 or greater college football dog coming off a SUATS win if they are facing an undefeated opponent that is coming off a win of 24 or more points if they defeated the undefeated opponent ni their most recent meeting is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -24.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tulane comes in ranked 128th in three important defensive categories – Total D (493 YPG), Scoring D (42.9 PPG) and Passing Defense (300 YPG). Pretty horrible since there are only 130 teams! In fact, it’s been a very long time since the Green Wave traveled to Norman to open the season and gave the Sooners everything they could handle in a 5-point loss. Now they have dropped five straight contests, with a tidal wave of points allowed (40 or more in four of the five defeats), along with season high – or 2nd high – yards in those games. Consider that Tulane is 1-11 ATS at home coming off a conference loss of more than 28 points. |
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10-29-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Lakers | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units LeBron James is questionable after missing the past two games, but even if LeBron plays why are the Lakers this heavily favored? Have oddsmakers not seen them this year? Cleveland, meanwhile, might be the most improved team in the NBA and enters off wins over the Hawks, Nuggets and Clippers. I expect this spread to drop regardless and certainly will quite a bit if James is ruled out. |
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10-29-21 | Navy +11 v. Tulsa | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tulsa shows up with a below .500 record, after five consecutive losses, both SU and against the spread. Tulsa has also dumped four straight ATS decisions on this field to Navy, and the series host is on an unlucky 1-7 ATS slide. Now in his 14th year with Navy and pulling down a salary of $2.3 million per season, Niumatalolo knows he can hang onto his job if the Midshipmen continue to play with the same intensity they displayed against the Bearcats. It won’t be easy: after tonight, Navy plays three of its final four games away from Annapolis versus Notre Dame, Temple, and Army. Regardless, we think Tulsa shouldn’t be laying double digits to the Middies here, especially with a playoff revenger against No. 2 Cincinnati waiting on deck. Take the points. |
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10-28-21 | Spurs +6.5 v. Mavs | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, the Spurs have lost three games in a row. However, they were all tough foes in the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers. They lost two of those games by six points or fewer, so they at least held their own. Doug McDermott (knee) is out, but that might actually be a blessing as it could force the Spurs to give the more dangerous Devin Vassell added minutes. On the Mavericks side, Kristaps Porzingis (back) is listed as questionable. The Mavericks also play Friday, so they could take the cautious route and sit him out. Even if he plays, though, I still think the Spurs can keep this close. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit TNF Game of the Week The Cardinals, the league’s sole unbeaten team, and currently 7-0 for the first time since 1974 under head coach Don Coryell (why isn’t he in the NFL HOF?). As always, in matters of great importance like this game, we note the Packers are 5-0 ATS versus undefeated NFC West opponents. On the flip side, NFL 7-0 favorites are 0-3 SUATS in Game Eight versus .700 or greater non-division opponents since 1980, while Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points. In conclusion, take the points and relax. Also consider that Green Bay QB Rodgers is 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS on Thursdays, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. |
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10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets +9.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz have won and covered all three of their games and, on paper, should handle the Rockets with ease. But they could be looking ahead to their next two games: at undefeated Chicago and at defending champion Milwaukee. Forward Bojan Bogdanovic (16.7 ppg) is questionable with an illness. The young Rockets have been competitive in their two home games, beating OKC and losing by 10 to Boston. Take the points. |
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10-27-21 | Cavs +8 v. Clippers | 92-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers are coming off of two impressive wins after defeating the Hawks by six points and the Nuggets by 12 points. The win over the Nuggets came on the road, which is even more noteworthy. Darius Garland is back heathy, and the Cavaliers' size up front could present problems for the Clippers, so don’t be surprised if Cleveland keeps this game fairly close. |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers head into this matchup against the Grizzlies needing a strong bounce-back performance. On Monday, Portland was blown out 116-86 at the LA Clippers. Additionally, star Damian Lillard should rebound from an early slump behind the three-point line, where he is 2-for-24. Take the Blazers on the small number. |
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10-27-21 | Lakers v. Thunder +7 | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm going to take these points even though Oklahoma City is terrible because I believe the Lakers rest Anthony Davis at a minimum tonight in the second of a back-to-back and it's no sure thing that LeBron James plays, either, after missing Tuesday's OT win in San Antonio. Easy for the Lakers to look past the winless Thunder. |
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10-27-21 | Hornets -5.5 v. Magic | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After pulling off a surprising win at the Knicks on Sunday, the Magic reverted to their bad habits Monday in a 17-point loss at the Heat. Orlando's two previous losses came by 26 points and 25 points, respectively, so it has certainly been involved in some lopsided affairs. Despite the expected absence of Terry Rozier (ankle), I still like the Hornets to cover with LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges playing well. |
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10-26-21 | Nuggets +7 v. Jazz | 110-122 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is on the second half of a back-to-back after losing at home to the Cavs. In that game, the Nuggets were 9-of-38 on 3-pointers, but they had a ton of good looks; the shots just didn't fall. If they get the same looks tonight, they cash in against Utah. I'm on Denver. |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks -1.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After destroying the Magic by 25 points in their first meeting, the Knicks had a letdown and lost to them by six points Sunday. Playing down to their opponent shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup, considering the Knicks could face the Sixers in the playoffs this season. The Sixers are 2-0 on the road after going just 20-16 on the road last season. However, it’s important to note that their wins came against the rebuilding Thunder and a Pelicans team that was without Zion Williamson (foot). Expect this to be a much tougher matchup. |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Geno Smith, following last week’s winning ticket, is 8-5 ATS as a dog in games in which his team is coming off a loss. Seattle was losing 14-0 at intermission, as they produced just 65 net yards of offense compared to 177 for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh was in complete control of the game. However, Seattle made some amazing adjustments at halftime. The bottom line is we can’t ignore the fact that head coach Pete Carroll is 33-13 SU and 30-13-3 ATS at home in games in which his team does not sport a winning record, including 14-5-1 ATS as a dog. |
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10-25-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves -5.5 | 107-98 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans are a mess right now with Zion Williamson (foot) out. They lost their first two games by at least 16 points before falling to the Timberwolves by seven points on Saturday. They did so despite Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell shooting a combined 13-for-36 (36.1 percent) from the field. If they catch fire in this rematch, things could get out of hand in a hurry. |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +2.5 | 119-109 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee will be without starters Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez so I give Indiana a good shot of winning outright much less covering this number. The Pacers impressively beat Miami in their home opener on Saturday. Chris Duarte, the No. 13 overall pick out of Oregon, has been maybe the most impressive rookie in the NBA thus far, averaging 20.3 points per game. Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its past six as a home dog. |
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10-25-21 | Celtics v. Hornets +1 | 140-129 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams played Sunday and won, with the Celtics getting their first win at woeful Houston while the Hornets won at Brooklyn to go 3-0 SU and ATS. The Hornets are unselfish and someone new is stepping up each game. Take the Hornets at home to cover Monday. |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres +1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's the front end of a back-to-back for Tampa Bay, which apparently will give backup Brian Elliott his first start of the year. The Lightning are far from two-time Stanley Cup champion form -- they haven't led a game yet in regulation. That's crazy. Of course, the Bolts remain without former Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov. Buffalo appears quite a bit better this season and at worst the Sabres should be able to hang within a goal (puckline is -135 but may go up a bit with Tampa starting Elliott) at home. |
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10-24-21 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Lakers | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers are 0-2 and Russell Westbrook hasn’t been great. He’s a combined 10-for-28 from the field and he has eight turnovers compared to 13 assists. The Grizzlies dispatched the Cavaliers by 11 points in their season opener and the Clippers by six points on the road Saturday. While this is another road game, they are playing in the same arena, so travel won’t be an issue. They are an extremely deep team even with Dillon Brooks (hand/thigh) out, so don’t be surprised if they keep this close. |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens -6.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -107 | 91 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Unit Blowout Figure the Ravens will not let the success of the last two home wins the past two weeks cut short their five-game win skein, not behind a burgeoning defense that has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards. To confirm those thoughts, consider that NFL teams in the 3rd of a 3-game home stand, with a bye week on deck, are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season. Playing on any NFL home team coming off consecutive home games who has a week of rest on deck if they scored more than 3 points in their last game and they are facing an opponent coming off a win of more than 7 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +5.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge. |
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10-23-21 | Suns +2.5 v. Blazers | 105-134 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have a lot of depth, with the likes of Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Cameron Johnson and JaVale McGee coming off the bench. The Trail Blazers, on the other hand, don’t have many super subs aside from Larry Nance Jr. Their backup guards are Anfernee Simons, Ben McLemore and Dennis Smith Jr. I think the Suns can win this outright, so give me the points. |
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10-23-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here we go again: Oddsmakers hugely overpricing the Dodgers with Max Scherzer on the mound. I simply don't get this moneyline number on the road, so I'll take advantage and grab the Braves at -110 on the runline. I get L.A. being favored a bit, but not this much. Atlanta starter Ian Anderson has had a scoreless outing in four of his first six career postseason appearances overall. Three of those six starts have come against the Dodgers, who scored two runs in three innings against him in Game 2. L.A. is now down a key reliever in Joe Kelly. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA -6.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 45-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Don't look now, but we've got another non-Power Five squad attaching itself to a Top 25 ranking, these Roadrunners, who are just 20 pts from a 20-3 spread run (actually 17-6-1). Dog is 13-4 (5-0 this year) ATS in Bulldog games, but Tech can't run (#99), & Kendall just 10 TDs with 8 INTs |
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10-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Toledo +2 | 15-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Western Michigan is only 6-12-1 ATS as road chalk in MAC action when coming off a SUATS win, including 0-4-1 ATS the last five. Not so for Rockets head coach Jason Candle, who is 3-1 SUATS with UT when coming off back-to-back losses, including 3-0 SUATS when not installed as a double-digit dog. We also prefer Toledo’s 34-10 SU record in the last 44 conference home games, as opposed to WMU’s awful 3-12 SU skid in this series when playing on the road. With the Rockets’ season on the line, we’ll turn it over to the nation’s top-ranked team in returning production – with added backing from the fact that Toledo is 5-0 ATS since 2000 as a conference home dog against an opponent coming off a SUATS win. |
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10-23-21 | LSU +9.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day Mississippi is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with conference revenge, and 3-9 versus the number as SEC chalk of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, LSU is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 10 points and has covered the spread 4 of the last five meetings in this series. Consider that LSU coach Orgeron is 27-11 ATS in conference games against foes with a better record, including 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in his previous game. |
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10-23-21 | Rice v. UAB -23 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Rice was expected to wake up this season but hasn’t followed the script, entering today’s game at 2-4 on the season. And don’t get too excited about that pair of victories, since they came against the likes of Texas Southern and Southern Miss (1-6). Meanwhile, the host in this series is 8-1 ATS with the Blazers 5-0 ATS at home. In addition, Bill Clark is 25-5 SU and 18-7 ATS at home as the head man with the Blazers, including 21-1 SU and 15-2-1 ATS versus .600 or less foes. We’re defi nitely not about to step in front of that with these sleepy visitors |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit CFB Game of the Week Army Head Coach Jeff Monken is very comfortable as the point man in this role, going 11-4 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points coming off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Monken. Wake has never shone against military schools, going just 7-18 SU and 8-16 ATS, including 4-6 SU and 2-8 |
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10-23-21 | Cincinnati v. Navy +28 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB 5* Upset That's a lot for the Midshipmen to prep for after its latest loss last Thursday. The defense gave up four touchdowns on Memphis' first five drives in a 35-17 defeat. Navy made the most of its first possession against Memphis, piecing together a methodical, 21-play touchdown drive that lasted 11:50. The Midshipmen scored only 10 points the rest of the day. Consider that playing on any college football military team if they are a dog of 20 or more points coming off a loss of 16 or more points if they allow fewer than 41 points per game and are facing a .666 or greater opponent before Game Eleven of the season is a perfect 20-0 since 1980. |
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10-22-21 | Suns +1 v. Lakers | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams lost their first games of the season, but the Lakers might have the bigger concerns of the two. They are shorthanded right now with Kendrick Nunn (knee), Wayne Ellington (hamstring), Talen Horton-Tucker (thumb) and Trevor Ariza (ankle) all out. After an ugly preseason, Russell Westbrook still looked lost against the Warriors, finishing with just eight points, five rebounds and four assists to go along with four turnovers. A lengthy adjustment period to his new team could be in the works. |
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10-22-21 | Nets -3 v. 76ers | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even with Ben Simmons out, the Sixers destroyed the Pelicans by 20 points in their opener. However, it’s important to note that Zion Williamson (foot) didn’t play. Expect the Nets to be much more competitive than they were in their opener against the Bucks. What's more, Joel Embiid is listed as questionable with knee soreness. If he doesn’t play, the Sixers could be in big trouble. |
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10-22-21 | Knicks v. Magic +8 | 121-96 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units his spread seems a bit high for a Knicks team that might have some heavy legs afterT a double-overtime thriller against Boston on Wednesday and playing its first road game -- New York was 16-20 away last year. For what it's worth, the Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their past four in the Magic Kingdom. They also are without big men Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson. Orlando stinks but can manage to lose by 5-6 as New York isn't really built to rout teams. |
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10-22-21 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm almost always going to take home teams (well most of them -- no longer the Coyotes!) getting +1.5 at a price of less than -150, and the unbeaten Sabres are at -140. One would think the Buffalo players will know how to beat Boston goaltender Linus Ullmark as he spent the previous six years in Buffalo. It's Ullmark's Bruins debut. Sabres goaltender Craig Anderson is 40 but has a 1.50 GAA in his two starts. |
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10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes +1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One of my favorite wagers in hockey is a home team at +1.5 on the puckline if it's under -150 and this is -145 on the Yotes. Yes, they are 0-3 and Edmonton is 3-0, but the Oilers will not have No. 1 goaltender Mike Smith, are playing their first road game of the year and are on the front end of a back-to-back. Arizona is 4-1 in its past five following a home loss of at least three goals. |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +3 | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks received some good news following their season-opening win against Brooklyn. Jrue Holiday left that game with a heel injury, but it’s not serious and he is listed as probable for Thursday. That likely kept them as the favorites for this game despite having to play on the road. This is a big spot for the Heat, who retooled during the offseason by adding Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker. Tyler Herro played well in the preseason, which could be a promising sign of things to come. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami win this game on its home floor, so I’ll take the points. |
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10-21-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Jets | 1-5 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Puckline prices have been outrageously high in the early season, but I can live with -150 on the Ducks here as they have been better than expected. Should be John Gibson in net and he has a 1.46 GAA in his two starts, including a 4-1 home win over these Jets last week. Winless Winnipeg has looked terrible -- although all three were away -- and is without captain and arguably its second-best player in Blake Wheeler as he tested positive for COVID. The 14-year NHL veteran had 15 goals and 31 assists in 50 games for the Jets last season. |
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10-20-21 | Kings v. Blazers -6 | 124-121 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have kept their young core intact and are expected to have a solid shot at securing a playoff spot. The Blazers have turned the page by bringing in Chauncey Billups as coach. I expect the combo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to get past a Kings team that was prone to second half lapses last season. |
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10-20-21 | Magic +6.5 v. Spurs | 97-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ten days ago the Spurs nearly blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead but prevailed to just a one point victory. I expect the Magic to again push the Spurs. |
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10-20-21 | 76ers -3 v. Pelicans | 117-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units here is plenty going on around these teams. Ben Simmons was suspended for one game Tuesday after reportedly refusing to participate in a defensive drill at practice. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are going to be without Zion Williamson (foot) for an extended period of time. The Pelicans don’t exactly have a ton of depth and have question marks at both guard spots with Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe no longer in the picture. The Sixers still have Joel Embiid to lead the way, giving them a favorable opportunity to cover. |
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10-20-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves haven't announced their Game 4 starter yet, but it doesn't really matter as it will be a bullpen day -- probably largely for Los Angeles, too, after Julio Urias puts in 3-4 innings or so on short rest. I expect the Dodgers to win after ripping out Atlanta's heart in Game 3, but backing LA at -220 is ridiculous without a true starting pitching edge. So, Braves runline at -118. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s also not very pretty what happens to undefeated road favorites coming off a week of rest from Game Six out when facing an avenging conference foe coming off a loss. These teams are just 3-19 ATS in this role since 1995. That dismal stat plays right into the Mountaineers’ 8-0 SU and 5-1 ATS success when coming off a loss the past four years |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets -1 | 122-123 | Push | 0 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In last year’s Eastern Conference play-in round, the Pacers blew out Charlotte, 144-117. The 144 points allowed by the Hornets were the most in a non-overtime game since 1994. This has been a revenge game for Charlotte since schedules were released. Grab the Hornets |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit MNF Game of the Month Playing on (Tennessee) any NFL home dog of more than 3 points with a winning record if they were a playoff team last season that is not coming off a loss of 13 or more points and did not cover its last game by 20 or more points if they are facing an opponent coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Upset of the Week Today, the Pats return home to host Dallas, one of the hottest teams in the league at 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. It’s where The Hoodie is 155-41 SU and 110-78-8 ATS in his career with New England, including 14-4-1 ATS when taking points. The Cowboys enter after taking down an injury-laden Giants squad at home last week, carrying a 9-21-1 ATS mark in non-division duels in games after knocking off New York, including 0-6-1 ATS the last seven games. Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career against teams from the NFC East, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog. He is also 6-0 SU versus the Dallas Cowboys. The Clincher: Playing against any NFL non-division road favorite of more than |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -135 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Browns lost to the Chargers on Sunday, even though they scored more than 40 points and didn’t turn the ball over a single time, there had been 401 instances in the Super Bowl era where a team had accomplished both of those feats, and those teams combined to go 401-0. However, the Browns ended that improbable 401-game winning streak that had gone on for more than 50 years. Consider that 6-0 NFL teams in Game Seven are 1-9 SUATS when facing an opponent coming off a SUATS loss, including 0-7 ATS if not favored by 12 or more points. |
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10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Bears’ defense showed their toughness and talent while leading the team to a road win in Las Vegas, their second victory in as many weeks. QB Justin Fields was just 12-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown, but he played mistake-free football, and came up with some clutch plays to support the great effort by his defense. With it, Chicago is 3-2 and is suddenly positioned to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. The Bears are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points. Consider that the Bears are 7-1 SUATS when coming off two win under head coach Matt Nagy. |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week It was a big “W” for the Utes last week in a double revenge matchup with USC, with a solid performance from new QB Cam Rising, but Utah is dragged down in this tilt with a 4-9 SUATS mark in games when coming off upset wins. Meanwhile, Arizona State is an ITS (In The Stats) darling this year, winning the yards in all six games while averaging +141 YPG. As a result, they are dominating the stat rankings this season, including No. 2 on the defensive side of the ball. With it, the overall yardage winner is 2-22 SU in the last 24 Utes games. ASU lost 21-3 at Utah in their most recent meeting in 2019, Herm Edwards’ worst loss with Arizona State since taking over the program four seasons ago. The Clincher: The Sun Devils are 14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23 or more points per game. |
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10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Fried will start for the Braves in Game 1 after Charlie Morton pitched on short rest on Tuesday. He has been on a dominant run and he already pitched two quality starts against the Dodgers earlier this season. The Dodgers struggled against lefties this season as most of their righties actually hit right-handed pitchers better and they should have Albert Pujols at first base and AJ Pollock in the outfield instead of Gavin Lux and Cody Bellinger. In the NLCS last season, Fried faced the Dodgers twice pitching a quality start in each outing. Max Scherzer is expected to start for the Dodgers. He pitched an inning against the Giants Thursday but that was his bullpen day. The adrenaline is a little bit different for a winner take all save though, so I would expect a little bit of an energy loss. Take the Braves at home. |
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10-16-21 | Ole Miss v. Tennessee +2.5 | 31-26 | Loss | -102 | 76 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Matt Corral is a legitimate talent, accounting for four more touchdowns against the Hogs in Saturday’s 52-51 shootout, but you know we’re not keen on laying points in conference games with bad defenses, and we won’t begin here. Toss in the Rebels’ abysmal series record of 2-13 SU in the last 15 games, plus their 1-5 ATS record overall as road favorites, and you can see why we’re headed for the betting window. Also playing against any college football road favorite off a win who allows more than 30 points per game and more than 4 yards per rush if they surrendered 60-plus points combined in its last two games before Game Seven of the season, are 3-20-1 ATS. |
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10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams coming in 3-2 and win in Game Six the prospects of donning bowling shirts improves considerably. Lose and they can begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games. These Game Six teams are at their best playing with the added benefit of a week of rest, going 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS. That should be music to the ears for Kansas State. In addition, put them at home and they respond with aplomb, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. It’s where the Wildcats anticipate benefiting from home-cooking this week. And by matching them up against .600 or fewer opponents, their chances of winning improves dramatically as the teams have gone 7-0 SUATS in this role. That applies to Chris Klieman’s Kansas Sate crew. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Rating 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out yarded every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series. Jeff Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous. As for the sky-high Hawkeyes, they are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter). While they knocked QB Clifford out of the PSU game last week, we’re banking they won’t do the same to the Boilermakers’ starting signal caller this week. The Clincher: Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Week Playing on (Virginia Tech) any college football mission team (missed bowl game last year after having been a bowler the previous three seasons) if they are a home dog with revenge who allows fewer than 19.5 PPG if they are facing a foe that did not lose its last game by more than 3 points provided the foe rushes the ball for less than 288 YPG on the season is a perfect 18-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When these same two teams met last season, Clemson was gaining 531 YPG and allowing 264 YPG, while Syracuse was averaging 264 yards of offense and giving up 486 yards per game. That was a net of +491 YPG in the Tigers favor. This year, it’s a net edge of +98 YPG in favor of the Orange. Clemson has also burned piles of money in 2021, going 0-5 ATS versus all opponents, while Syracuse checks in with a 4-1 ATS success. Things don’t look much better for Dabo and company as Clemson is 1-4 ATS as road chalk of 14 or less points, and 1-3 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss. By comparison, the ‘Cuse has cashed a ticket in three of the last four series meetings, and head coach Dino Babers stands 10-5 ATS as a dog the past two seasons. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills, Browns and Rams rank 1-2-3 in net yards per play. Guess who's fourth? The Eagles. Philly hosts a Buccaneers team that's failed to cover six straight primetime games and will be without stud linebacker Lavonte David. Tom Brady has a sore right thumb but says it won't affect his play. Consider that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in Thursday performances while Tampa Bay has coughed up the bucks on Thursdays going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. |
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10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Golden Knights | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look, I don't know if the Kraken will be any good in their expansion season. Will they reach the Stanley Cup Final like Vegas did in its expansion season? I think it's fair to say no. There doesn't appear to be a ton of offense on the Seattle roster, but the team has a very deep defensive group led by former Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano. The Kraken are also stacked in net, led by Philipp Grubauer. Still shocked the Avalanche let him get away. Grubauer was No. 2 in the league last year in GAA at 1.95. I'll be hammering Seattle Unders a lot this season, and I'd lean the Under 5.5 goals here as well but will take the Kraken on the puckline because they are going to treat their debut like a playoff game. Vegas also dealt away its No. 1 netminder in Marc-Andre Fleury and while new No. 1 Robin Lehner is pretty good, he's not the Flower. Lehner also reportedly is dealing with an injury (still expected to play) and didn't look great in the preseason. |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 123 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Jackson has chewed up and spit out foes coming off a win, going 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS with Baltimore, including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS versus .333 or worse opponents. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Colts limp into Baltimore with an 0-5 ATS ledger in their last five meetings with the AFC North. The Clincher: NFL road teams, coming off consecutive away games and a SU underdog win, are just 6-23 SU and 7-22 ATS when facing a foe coming off consecutive wins, including 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS if the visitor owns a sub .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SNF Game of the Month While the defensive genius of Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a given, he continues to fly under the radar in games when coming off high-scoring efforts, going 8-1 SUATS in his career in games after the Bills tally 35 or more points in their previous contest. He is also 6-1 SUATS with Buffalo in matchups of winning teams when his troops own the higher win percentage. With that, we turn things over to The clincher: Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-0 SUATS when the Bills own a greater than .666 win percentage. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Week The Niners enter off a pair of SU favorite losses, while the host Cardinals arrive off last week’s underdog win against the Rams. Because of it, the bottom line is this game is packed with value. Remember, the preseason line on this game at the Westgate Super Book was “pick”, so it’s been adjusted more than a variable rate mortgage loan. The Clincher: San Francisco is 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU losses as a favorite, including 5-0 SUATS versus .800 or greater opponents. Playing against any .500 or greater NFL division favorite coming off consecutive wins, the last as a dog (Arizona), versus an opponent coming off consecutive losses, each as a favorite, if the Over/Under total in this game is more than 41 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sean Payton has a 49-28-1 ATS career mark in games when coming off a loss, including 25-10 ATS away. While Washington is 3-8 SUATS in its last eleven games when hosting visitors from the NFC South. |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Even after the return of QB Kedon Slovis to lead USC’s 37-14 thumping of Colorado last week, we’re not sure we can trust the Trojans to exploit the Utah reset on offense. Not when USC is 0-4 ATS in the series when coming off a SUATS win, plus a passive 7-13 ATS as Pac-12 home chalk, including 1-4 ATS in the last five. Need more? The Utes are a useful 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS when .500 under Whittingham, including 8-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. The clinchers: Head Coach Whittingham has been money in the bank as a dog when coming off a spread loss of -4 or more points, going 17-4-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 ATS the last 14 games. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day After losing 33 of its previous 35 battles with the Gators, you would think Mr. Mo-Mentum would stick around Lexington for another week, but his reputation is to bail on the Cats, who are 14-27 SU after games with UF, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. The Tigers make things more difficult for the hosts with their 17-4 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky’s finest is 0-3 SUATS since 1980 in Game Six after opening the season 5-0, plus Big blue is a weak 13-33 SU and 17-29 ATS in SEC games after winning any game SU as an underdog. The clincher: College football home favorites coming off a SU home win as an underdog of 7 or more points are 1-13 ATS the last six years when facing .600 or fewer opponents. Playing on any 3-2 conference dog in Game Six coming off a SU conference favorite loss if they scored fewer than 30 points in the loss (LSU) and are facing an opponent that was not favored by 6 or more points in its last game is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-09-21 | Wyoming v. Air Force -6 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football home team that rushed for 300 or more yards in each of its last three games is 82-63-2 ATS in this role since 1980. Better yet, bring these overland juggernauts in off a confidence building spread win of 15 or more points, and they improve to 20-7 ATS in conference clashes. Best of all, these same teams who love to run are 15-3 ATS in this role since 1990. |
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10-09-21 | Penn State +2 v. Iowa | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Penn State is 3-0 ATS on the road with conference revenge (they got drubbed by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last year, 41-21, to drop them to 0-5), while Iowa is just 1-5 ATS at home against a vengeful opponent. The Lions are also 10-1 ATS in Game Six of the season versus a foe coming off a win, including 6-0 SUATS in the last six. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in games when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. The clinchers: when a 5-0 favorite is laying points into a 5-0 dog – as Iowa will be doing this week against Penn State – the 5-0 favorite is 6-14 ATS. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UC is riding the nation’s second-longest home win skein at 22 in a row – all of which leads to the Bearcats laying four TDs to Temple tonight, a huge jump from their last meeting on this field, where Cincy edged the Owls, 15-13, as 8.5-point chalk. The fact is Temple has cashed five straight tickets in this series, and Rod Carey’s crew is riding a 5-0 ATS skein as dogs of 20 or more points. We feel a natural letdown is in order for the Bearcats here. Consider also that playing against any team off a SUATS win against Notre Dame if they are favored by 11 or more points and are facing an avenging .400 or greater opponent is 15-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Sunday’s win over San Francisco, Wilson has never lost three games in a row, and is now 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS while trying to avoid the trifecta. He is also 18-6-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS at home – not to mention 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Meanwhile, the Rams roll into the Emerald City off their first loss of the season knowing they are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division duels on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when laying points. Given Seattle head coach Pete Carroll’s glossy 28-12 SU and 27-10-3 ATS NFL career mark in home games when his team does not own a winning record (.500 or less), we’ll be back on the take with the Seahawks tonight. |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 56 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The gritty Cardinals used a 17-game win streak in September to get here, but they're playing a Dodgers team that's won 15 straight at home. And the pitching matchup favors LA. Max Scherzer faced the Redbirds on Sept. 6 and allowed one unearned run over eight innings. For the season, Scherzer has a 0.00 ERA and a ridiculous 22 strikeouts in 14 innings vs. St. Louis. Since being acquired by LA, Scherzer has a 1.98 ERA in 68.1 innings. Adam Wainwright is an ageless wonder, but the Dodgers got to him for four runs over 8.1 innings in their only matchup this season. Back the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-27, as 3-point road dogs in December of last year, a costly loss that denied Vegas a winning campaign. Carr and head coach Jon Gruden look to get even knowing that the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Monday Night games, while the Chargers own a 1-3-1 ATS mark in their last five Monday Nighters. The Chargers have blown a fuse when favored at home over AFC West foes, going 3-8 ATS of late, and L.A. is an even worse 2-12 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. Speaking of home, there may be more Raiders fans than Chargers’ faithful at SoFi Stadium tonight. Take the points. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Denver stands 22-10 SUATS at home versus opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 15-5 SUATS in non-division contests. Then there’s the red-hot Bridgewater, who is 21-6 ATS when his team is coming off a win, including 15-2 ATS versus non-division foes. Consider that 3-0 teams in the NFL are 15-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when hosting a non-division opponent. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Steelers come into this one 7-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven in non-conference road games. The fact that HC Tomlin is at his best when facing quality opponents who own a .666 or greater record, going 37-13-2 ATS when the foe is coming off back-to-back wins, including 20-6-2 ATS as a dog. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is 37-21-3 ATS as a dog, including 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS away against foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Is a letdown in order for the Rams after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs last week? According to the well-oiled machine, the answer is yes – given the fact that teams who upset the defending champs are just 26-35 SU and 24-36-1 ATS when facing a division rival the following game, including 9-19 SU and 8-20 ATS since 1980 when the divisional foe arrives off a SUATS win in its previous game. Stafford is only 3-10-1 ATS in division games when coming off back-to-back wins. Since the Cards are currently on a 9-3-1 ATS roll as single-digit division road dogs, a take is in order today. |
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10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units New Orleans is just 1-6 ATS in home openers the last six seasons. Meanwhile, QB Jameis Winston’s production last week almost mirrored his Week One performance – without all the touchdowns. Winston wasn’t asked to do much as he threw 30 fewer times than his counterpart, Mac Jones did. While being put under wraps, Winston didn’t make any mistakes, going 13-of-21 for 128 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s difficult being productive when you’re swathed in Saran Wrap. Consider this shocker that the Giants are the NFL’s best road dog the last four years, going 17-3 ATS since 2018. |
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10-03-21 | Panthers +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Playing against any NFL team with a winning record coming off a Monday Night divisional win and cover if they are facing a .750 or greater opponents coming off a SUATS win of more than 3 points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rhule 36-13 ATS away and 40-19 ATS as a dog in his combined college and NFL head coaching careers, and Dallas a dismal 0-8 SUATS at home in games after coming off a Monday night game |
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10-02-21 | Arizona State +3.5 v. UCLA | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Devils are 10-2 ATS on the road with conference revenge and 5-0 ATS as dogs of less than a TD. They outgained Colorado (439-250) behind dual threat QB Jayden Daniels, who ran for 2 touchdowns and 75 yards, plus threw for 236 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly’s team bounced back from the last-second loss to Fresno State by pummeling Stanford on Saturday, 35-24, in their Pac-12 opener. However, UCLA is just 3-11 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. In addition, Kelly is 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS at home with the Bruins versus foes coming off a win. To cap it off, consider that the Sun Devils are 11-4 ATS as dogs under head coach Herm Edwards, including 6-0 ATS in game in which they are allowing fewer than 17 PPG. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units SEC SmokerThe Cats own a Top 10-ranked defense and are outgaining opponents by 183 yards per game this campaign. In addition, HC Mark Stoops is 12-5 SU and 12-2 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated, including 8-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. His stop unit came up with a big effort in a 16-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday, while the rushing attack rolled up 230 yards on the ground. |
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10-02-21 | Nevada +6.5 v. Boise State | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Nevada has had a week off to lick their wounds from a 21-point loss to Kansas State, and should be raring to go in the high country today. It makes sense considering the Broncos are just 1-3 ‘In The Stats’ this year, outgained by 49 yards per game this season. Nevada head coach Jay Norvell (no relation to Mike) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and we’re choosing to forget about the blowout loss to KSU. Consider also that Nevada is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off a win. |
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10-02-21 | Central Florida -16 v. Navy | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game Four rested road teams who find themselves off one loss have gone 34-17 ATS in conference games including 21-7 ATS when taking the field off a double-digit spread loss in their last game with favorites of more than seven points going 6-0 ATS (Knights) checking in at 11-4 ATS. |
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10-02-21 | Cincinnati v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Cash Play Playing on any college football home dog of fewer than 4 points (Notre Dame) from game five out if both teams are undefeated and the home dog was either a dog or a favorite of 7 or fewer points in their last game is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-01-21 | BYU v. Utah State +8.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week BYU comes into this one a money-burning 2-10 ATS in their last twelve tries as chalk, and coach Sitake is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite when coming off an ATS loss, including 1-8 ATS versus a foe not coming off a spread win of 7 or more points (0-7 ATS the last seven). We know if you watched Utah State implode against Boise State last week, you won’t relish the idea of backing them here, but the bottom line is, the Aggies are a “mission team” coming off a loss, seeking revenge. With non-conference teams 27-11-1 ATS in this role since 1990. Especially with added support that USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3 | 51-14 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland has yet to face a defense as tough as Iowa. Then again, Iowa arguably hasn't met an offense as explosive as that of Maryland. Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is the Big Ten's leading passer in both yards (1,340) and completion percentage (75.5). He's thrown 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Ferentz highlighted Tagovailoa's mobility, saying he gets out of the pocket "with ease." Consider that playing on any 4-0 or greater college football home underdog (Maryland) versus a 4-0 or greater opponent is a whopping 12-1 ATS since 2014. |
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09-29-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lets see how hot we really are… Both these teams have been pitching well lately, and the Red Sox haven’t been scoring much. Nathan Eovaldi was shelled in his last start against the Yankees but he gave up 3 ER in 5 IP against the Orioles in his start before that. Zac Lowther pitched 5 scoreless innings in his last start and he should build off the momentum of the good starts the Orioles pitching staff has been putting together. The Red Sox haven’t scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 4 games and the Os won Lowther’s start 3-0 last time around the rotation. The Red Sox struggled with lefty Bruce Zimmermann last night, I don’t see much changing tonight. Im gonna take the value on the Orioles at home on the run line at +143 |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 125 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The history book shows us that Dallas is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last ten division home games, while Philly was 0-3 SUATS away in division battles last season. Consider that NFL Monday Night home teams coming off consecutive road games, the last a SUATS win, facing opponents coming off a home game, are 32-11-1 ATS. |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 101 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Game Three NFL teams are just 24-48-2 ATS in home openers when hosting non-division foes. Given the Niners’ 3-9 ATS record in Sunday Night games when coming off consecutive wins, including 1-8 ATS the last nine games, we gladly hand it off to the fact that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off consecutive wins, including 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units The revitalized Rams found their magic elixir in QB Matthew Stafford, whose 127.0 QB rating is nearly 40 points above his career average. The horned heads are 7-1 ATS in this series as well as 5-1 ATS in the first of consecutive home games. On the other side of the field Tampa, who has yet to win the stats this season, is 1-7 ATS in Game Three of the season, as well as 1-4 ATS |
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09-26-21 | Saints +3 v. Patriots | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit Payton brings a 48-28-1 ATS career mark into this contest when coming off a loss, including 24-10 ATS when his team is on the road. On the other side of the coin, the Pats defense is carrying the offense this season while rookie QB Mac Jones learns on the job. Jones was 22-of-30 for 186 yards in last week’s rout of the Jets. With the Pats coming off a division win last week and having |
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09-26-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Lions | 19-17 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a comeback for the Ravens over the Chiefs! Outscored them 12-0 in the 4th quarter. They dealt Mahomes the first loss of his career in September. Lamar Jackson is 14-5-1 ATS on the road in his career & has become the fastest QB since 1970 with 3,000+ rushing yards (48 games). Thus, he now has surpassed Michael Vick (8) for the most games with 100+ pass yards and 100+ rush yards since 1960. In addition, the Lions have coughed up 30 or more points in each of their last eight contests, going 1-7 ATS in the process. |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After booing injured QB Andy Dalton at home last week, it’s a good thing the Bears are playing in Cleveland this week. The fans sounded Eagles-esque. With Dalton on the mend with a bruised knee, it appears that Justin Fields is in line to make his first NFL start. Chicago’s 3-9-1 ATS record as road dogs of 6 or more points is likely to come into play, as is Cleveland’s 4-0 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units HC Riley is 4-0 SUATS in the next contest after OU scores 28 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the Sooners overall are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in conference games after failing to score 27 or more points. Battles against arch-rival Nebraska seem to give OU a kick in the pants as well – a 3-0 SUATS mark after playing the Huskers, with an average score of 60-19. After last weeks lethargic win means the Sooners need to make an impressive win in order to keep their place in the CFB Playoff chase, and they get it here. Consider also that West Virginia is 13-43-1 ATS in games they lose SU as a conference dog. |
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09-25-21 | Southern Miss +45.5 v. Alabama | 14-63 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against college football’s defending national champion in a non-conference FBS game if they are in the middle of a conference sandwich are just 9-24 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. And when they tackle a non-division foe that allows fewer than 21 points per game, they fall off a cliff, going 2-14 ATS. Worst of all, they are 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 15 points in these contests. |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units MSU is 0-3-1 ATS at home in Game Four of the season after beginning the year 3-0. The Huskers own this series, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. In fact, if you put tape over the names of these teams and looked at them from a statistical perspective you might have a difficult time determining which team is the favorite. Nebraska HC Scott Frost is 15-11-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of 18 or fewer points. Consider that 3-0 college football home favorites in Game Four who won fewer than 10 games the previous season are 4-17-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week The Wildcats are 19-6 ATS in this series (including 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points), and Klieman is 10-3 ATS overall at KSU when coming off a win. As for Okie State, Sanders threw only 12 passes on the blue turf, but ran for a TD while senior RB Jaylen Warren rushed for 218 yards and two scores. Mike Gundy will be asked to do something he’s struggled with throughout his career, and that’s bounce back when coming off a SU underdog win. In fact, he’s so bad, the Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in games when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe with double revenge-exact, including 0-5 ATS the last five |
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09-25-21 | Navy +20 v. Houston | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any military team as a dog of 20 or more points off a loss of 16 or more points in which they scored 13 or fewer points if they’re facing a .500 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS since 1990. |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3 v. Memphis | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Yes, the AAC resident Tigers also remained unbeaten, enhancing their dossier as they look to move to a Power Five conference. The problem today is they tend to let down in games after pulling off upsets, going 4-11 ATS at home the next game when they sport a .500 or better record. It could be back to reality here for Memphis today against this imposing invader. Consider that UTSA is 15-6 ATS on the road against non-conference opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS against those coming off a SUATS win |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State v. Baylor +7 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with Baylor. The Cyclones needed to work for a 38-31 home victory over the two-win Bears in 2020, as Hall rushed for 133 yards on 31 carries and scored three total touchdowns but Purdy threw three interceptions along with three TDs. Purdy has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 736 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while going 2-1 against Baylor. Though the Bears (3-0, 1-0) have outscored their first three opponents 140-34 and beat league-foe Kansas by 38 last weekend, this will be their first true test of the 2021 campaign -- a challenge that coach Dave Aranda and his Baylor squad hope they are prepared to meet. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is 51-for-70 for 664 yards with five touchdowns, without being intercepted or sacked. Meanwhile, receivers R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 27 catches, 440 yards and hree touchdowns. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have totaled 683 rushing yards, with the former posting five touchdowns. Consider that playing on ay .750 or more college football home dog off consecutive wins if they scored 40 or more points in both games if they allowed 12 or fewer point in their last game (Baylor) is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Play on an NFL home dog of 7 or more points who own a .500 or greater record, if they are facing an undefeated foe. These disrespected puppies that refuse to throw in the towel are 30-9-1 ATS since 1980 in this role. Couple Carolina’s 0-6 ATS log on Thursdays with Houston’s 8-2 SUATS all-time mark at home against visitors from the NFC South, and you have the ATS winner. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall +7 v. Appalachian State | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While ASU has a good shot at pushing this year’s SU home record to 3-0 with a win here, covering the 7-point number is a little more dicey, especially with the Mountaineers’ 3-7-1 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game, including 0-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. Those lousy stats fit right next to Marshall’s current 6-1-1 ATS run as a non-conference road dog. Sure, App State will have revenge on its side this evening, after losing 17-7 as a 5.5-point road favorite last season. The better news is that teams coming off a SU favorite loss, are 66-34-2 ATS, including 36-13-1 ATS as a dog – in addition to 29-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win. |