This game fits a situation that is 277-145 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 277-145 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 286-208 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-142 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 375-226 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 237-158 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 303-222 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 488-400 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 374-225 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 285-207 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 488-399 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 226-124 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 34-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 80-37 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 289-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 127-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 284-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 83-48 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 487-399 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 126-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 80-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 549-388 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is1004-831 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is100-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 283-171 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 526-365 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 77-31 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 122-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 122-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 273-171 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits my strongest total situation that is 123-48 ATS. The play is on the over.

This game fits my highest rated total situation which is 121-47. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that 591-477 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that 438-297 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that 83-43 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 271-143-9 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 143-101-3 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1000-829-41 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-64-2 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is huge, at 119-46-4. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is O/U:388-478-11 (-1.83, 44.8%), make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is O/U:43-74-5 (-4.03, 36.8%), make the play on the under.

This game fit a totals situation that is O/U:94-58-4 (3.05, 61.8%)  avg total: 217.5. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is O/U:152-120-5 (1.22, 55.9%). Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 141-97-12 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 94-57-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 141-97-12 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Youthful and talented Kings looking for their 5th straight win after opening the season at 1-3. The difference is the realization that they need to play on both ends of the court, and after allowing a ridiculous 129.5ppg in their 1-3 start they are allowing 104 in their 4-0 streak. Atlanta has had some ugly shooting nights at 40% or less in 3 of their last 4. Atlanta opponents 43% or less in 3 of 4, points to value on the under in this one.

The Oklahoma City Thunder finally got in the win column last time out breaking a 4 game losing streak to start the season. The Thunder has shot the ball very poorly but finally broke out so see some shooting variance to spark a higher scoring game as their pace has been above the total here squeezing off 93 shots a game. Clippers pouring in 116.5ppg topped the 100 shot mark last game. This one has technical support as well with a 900 game sample size that has connected on 58% to the over long term. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a long-term 567-444 situation. Make the play on the under.

 The Philadelphia 76ers arrived in the playoffs a year ahead of schedule last year. They seem to be struggling to make the same commitment on the defensive end of the floor. The 76ers allowed 50 points to Detroit's Blake Griffin, and a triple-double to Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo. Enter Kemba Walker. Opponents shooting 51% vs Philadelphia on the season. Despite having a pair of players grabbing 10+ rebounds a night the Sixers have out-rebounded just 1 of 5 opponents. Joel Embiid is questionable with an ankle injury and Sixers could speed things up with him off the floor (they were an over team last year without him). This game also fits a huge pace indicator that has been 246-146-8 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The pace of the game to open the season in the NBA has increased dramatically but think the oddsmakers are over-reacting trying to close the gap. This game has some value here and technical support with a 74-41 situation that says this one is posted too high. Make the play on the under.

Strictly a very strong situational play for tonight which is 244-143-8 to the over. Make the play on the over.

Scoring and pace of the game is soaring early this season with the average total posted by odds makers at 218.5 which is the highest average in 23 years of data I have. The odds makers having trouble keeping up as 27 of the 39 NBA games played have averaged 226.6ppg. Minnesota opponents squeezing off 95 shots a game and their 3 games have averaged 250 points. Indiana joining in with a 244 point combined total last time out vs Brooklyn. A 400 game sample size situation active here on the over as well at 59%. Make the play on the over.

The NBA is underway and today in the newsletter we will take a look and see if we can answer the question does a pair of teams off a high scoring game serve as a breeding ground for another high scoring game? Universally speaking I would tend to think no, nit in the case I am about to present the answer is a resounding yes. Let's jump right in and take a look at the parameters:

1)  Road team is off a game where both teams combined for more than 225 points.

2)  Home team is off a game where both teams combined for more than 235 points.

3)  The total is less than 232. (oddsmakers have not adjusted enough).

When all of the above is met these teams have played to a record of:

132-65-4  O/U  

That is 200+ games with a win rate of 67%!

Tonight consider a play on Sacramento/New Orleans over the total

The Houston Rockets have taken a 1-0 series lead over the Utah Jazz. The game was a lot more competitive than it appeared, as Houston shot 40% from inside the arc, but 53.3% from the arc and beyond. When Houston hits 53% from deep they will win, as the Rockets are 15-0 SU on the season when shooting better than 42.5% from deep, and 13-2 ATS. Perhaps the key component here is the fact that is just 15 times out of 88 games, or just 17% of all games. Houston had 6 of 7 players that attempted a 3 shoot 50% or better. Utah got the pace of the game they wanted, as the game saw just 158 shots attempted. Just 12 of the 50 playoff games thus far have seen less than 160 shots taken. Houston does not have nearly the same offensive success as totals indicate, when in a game vs a good defender such as Utah, and a lower total. The Rockets are 4-21 O/U the last 2 years when the total is 215.5 or less. (2-13 O/U this year), and have played 10 straight to the under. These 26 games have failed to reach the posted total by -8.64ppg. The public sees the 3 happy Rockets explosive offense, and rather low total, and have weighed in at 70%+ on the over. Make the play on the under.

This one comes down to a very strong situation. Play te under in a playoff game, if a team has 3 series wins (a close out game), if each of the last 2 games played under the total, and their opponent has at least 1 series win, if the total is less than 206. These teams are 56-17 to the under. If they are less than a 7 seed vs an opponent that is .500 or better, they are 51-12 to the under. Make the play on the under.

While I believe this total shows just a half point to a point in value, as long as the value is neutral or positive, the situations are huge, for the under. The Wrriors simply play at a different pace, and are somewhat easier to guard without Curry on the floor. They have averaged 118.9ppg with him this year, and 105.1ppg without him. Moreover the Warriors shoot 51.8% as a team with him, and 41.1% from 3, but just 48.2% without him, and 35.8% from deep. The Spurs shoot 47.2% at home and just 35.9% from deep, on the road they are 44%, and 34.9%, and average less than 100ppg. Warriors are 14-29 O/U in their last 43 playoff games at home, covering by 6.69ppg. Playoff double-digit home favorites are 22-48 O/U to a total of greater than 188, (14-33 O/U if round 1). Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 33-6 ATS, and the play is on the over.

While the LA Clippers have played themselves out of the playoffs, the New Orleans Pelicans can still host an opening round playoff game. New Orleans has been on the go offensively scoring over 120 points in each of their last 3, and in their last 21 games this season, as a favorite of -2.5 or more, they are 17-4 to the over piling up an average of 119.1ppg, and allow over 110. The Clippers have allowed over 120ppg average in their last 3, and high scoring Denver hung a 134 on them here last time out. This game fits a situation that is based on certain teams, both off very high scoring games which is 101-46-4 to the over. MY NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH IS ON THE OVER. 

This game fits a situation tat is 262-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 192-121 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 243-194 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 191-121 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 80-54 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 259-138 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 109-41 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 37-4 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 73-41 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 237-129 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 79-52 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 189-119 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 108-41 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 72-41 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 107-41 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 232-129 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 252-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 76-52 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 71-39 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 232-123 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 103-40 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 226-128 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 103-40 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 506-353 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 71-44 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 224-125 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 224-125 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 84-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 87-49 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 84-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 84-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 71-39 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 103-38 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 83-36 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 506-350 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 83-36 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 133-88 ATS, and the play is on the under.