The Tampa Bay Bucs started the season with a lot of new faces. The biggest addition was Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs offense struggled early, as covid shut down training camps, and practice time in a new system just wasn`t there. Brady looked old, could not complete the dep pass, and he looked like a declining GOAT. game one was an immediate test, and the Saints beat them 34-23. Brady threw for 6.6 yards per attempt, 2 INTs, and was under a lot of pressure, and was picked off twice. It took a 90 yard drive late in the 4th to make the score look a bit more respectable. The Bucs would go on to win 6 of their next 7 with the only loss a 1 point heartbreaker vs the Bears. They sure seemed poised to get revenge at home 2 months later vs the Saints. It got worse. They lost 38-3 and Brady threw 3 INTs was dropped 3 more times, and was under siege the entire game. Drew Brees had another big game finishing with a 135.2 passer rating, to Brady`s 40.4. The Bucs outside of their best game of the year vs the Packers would go on to go 0-5 vs playoff teams allowing nearly 30ppg. The bottom line here is the Saints is their worse possible matchup. Here is the skinny on Brady. The 2017 season saw him with the smallest gap when under pressure vs no pressure, as pressure made no difference. Since then those numbers have climbed off the chart. This year those numbers have completely tanked as he now has the 4th largest gap throwing with pressure vs no-pressure. Brady generates 8.1 yards per attempt when not under pressure to 5.6 yards per attempt with pressure. This plays right into the Saints strength as they allow 6.5 yards per attempt when they have 4 pass rushers, and 5.2 yards per attempt when the rush 5 or more. Buc`s LT Donovan Smith had 6 blown pass blocks in the 2 games vs New Orleans this year, Alex Cappa fractured his ankle last week and will turn over his starting job to an untested Aaron Stinnie. Brady since the bye has been much better throwing the deep ball at 9.7 yrds per attempt, but that was against Detroit, Atlanta, and all teams the worst at getting pressure. There are some other reasons I like the matchup here, but clearly, what was stated above exposes the biggest advantage on the field in today`s game. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

I have been watching the weather forecast in Buffalo, and it appears that the potential for high winds will not occur until well after this game. Weather should not play a significant role in this game other than cold and perhaps some snow showers. There is something to learn about how the Ravens defended the Bills in their 2019 meeting. They blitzed Josh Allen on every one of the Bills first 9 plays, and 11 of the first 12. The Ravens are the top blitzing team in the NFL at 45.1% of all opponent snaps. Maybe that work then, but it will be ill advised now. Allen has made perhaps the biggest year-over-year improvement of any NFL QB in history. The Ravens defensive coordinator promised in his press conference, there will be pressure, that's what they do. The 2019 game saw them bring pressure on 31 snaps, sacked Allen 6 times, and forced him to fumble. The word on Allen is to blitz him, and the Ravens send a lot of CB blitzes, and Allen has faced more of those than any QB in the league. Big problem, that doesn't work anymore. Allen ranked 21st in the league to such blitzes a year ago, this year he ranks number 2 behind only Patrick Mahommes. Allen has thrown just 2 of his 10 INTs against the blitz this season. The Bills love to go deep and expect some success in doing so. Buffalo isn't going to run the ball, and the pass heavy offense would be wise to keep the ball in the air the entire game. Tennessee did a good job keeping Baltimore in 2nd and long situations, and Baltimore ranks 25th in those situations. They managed just 20 points against a highly suspect Tennessee defense. The Buffalo defense has been above average since week 10, and the league leading missed tackles on the season, was reduced to just 1 against Tennessee, and they will have to maintain that in this contest. The Bills also should limit the snaps of playing man coverage. This is where Jackson often turns a dead play into a chunk rushing opportunity, and no QB cashes in better than Jackson. This game to me comes down to which offense is more effective, the run heavy offense of the Ravens, vs the pass happy offense of the Bills. The Bills were projected to win 9 games this season, and they won 13. The reason is quite simple, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs. It is hard in this era of the NFL to take a run heavy offense vs a pass heavy one. I am playing the Bills in this one.

This game is going to be determined by the top rated LA Rams defense vs the top rated Green Bay Packer offense. There are a few things of note here. I will start with the biggest match up in the game which will be Jalen Ramsey vs Devonte Adams. Adams averaged 98.1 yards per game while Ramsey allowed just 19.3 yards per game. Adams had 18 TD catches and Ramsey allowed just 3. The total yards of those 3 TDs was 7 combined. That gave the Rams defense a very off the charts 4.7 yards allowed to opponent throws to the right side. Here is what isn't spoken about. The Rams ranked 18th in throws to the left, and 21st in throws over the middle. The Rams were the best in the league stuffing the run on 1st down, but were 30th against the pass on 1st down. They were 1st against the pass on 2nd down. The Rams defense is also 31st on third and short. The Rams have faced very few top offenses this season. Their schedule draw saw them play 8 games vs the worst 2 conferences in football the NFC East, and the AFC East. The top 2 offenses they faced in Tampa Bay and Buffalo they allowed an average of 29.5ppg. Green Bay is better. Everyone says defense wins championships. That simply is not the case in the NFL. The Packer defense has been steadily improving, and over its last 5 games they have allowed 17.2ppg. The Rams offense has steadily declined, and with Cooper Kupp questionable, and a dinged up WB that has had a bad year when healthy, and a stud on defense in Aaron Donald that is not 100%, I don't see where they are turning.Let's suppose Adams is taken out of the game by Ramsey. The Packer offense played 2 games without Adams as well, and scored 37 on a big New Orleans defense, and Rodgers QB rating in the 2 games was higher than his season average. The Packers led every game this season by 7 points or more, and allowed 72 points in the 4th quarter in 6 games they led by 18 or more with 10 minutes or less remaining. Take that out of the equation and they allowed the same defensive point average as the Rams. I don't think this game is going to be close. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS to the under and is 21-8 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bears have snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 on the season. While it appeared that RB Montgomery, and QB Trubisky have appeared to ignite a stale and subpar offense, the improvements are smoke and mirrors. The Bears since week 7 are 3-7. The wins came against Jacksonville, Houston, and Minnesota, with a loss to Detroit. The offense averaged 35 points in those games, but those defenses are all the worst in the league. They have bookended those games with losses to Green Bay, trailing 35-10 going into the 4th in one game and scoring 16 in the other, and the Green Bay defense is in the middle of the pack. Their 5-1 start to the season included wins vs Carolina, Atlanta, the Giants, and the Lions. Their schedule got them to 8 wins, nothing they have done has. New Orleans will have Brees, Thomas, and Kamara all as part of the offense for the first time since week 10. The Bears biggest advantage on offense would have been Mooney, but he is out, and the defense will be missing Roquan Smith. The Bears are becoming injured, the Saints healthy. Playoff home favorites of 10 or more points are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS, including 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2008, winning by 16ppg. This game has blowout written all over it. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Baltimore Ravens are no secret on offense. They are going to run the ball. Lamar Jackson will take advantage of man defense which forces opponents to play zone most of the time. The offense was not very good early on, but from week 11 on they have been back to elite form. So you can decide if it is a product of Jackson getting healthy and back in form, or the product of the poor defenses they have faced. The defenses all ranked 21st or worse. Unfortunately for the Titans, they are one of those poor defenses. The Titans did win in overtime earlier in the season vs the Ravens, but it was the red-zone inefficiencies that stopped the Ravens. Baltimore was stopped on 3 red-zone drives, and punted just 3 times. Those punts were on the opener, just prior to the half after a penalty with :41 seconds left, and a 4th and 5. The passing game is also starting to come around. Marquise Brown had dropped 6 balls, and broken just 4 tackles all season. He created just 7 first downs on 32 deep targets all season. The last 5 weeks he has caught 3 deep TDs and 2 deep first downs on 6 attempts.The Titans have no pass rush, as they have just 19 sacks, and generate pressure the second least in the entire NFL. The Tennessee offense saw Derrick Henry gouge Houston and Jacksonville for 761 yards, so his numbers otherwise don't jump off the page. The Titans generate a lot of their offense off play action, where they have generated 1,541 yards on 174 plays. That has been a Ravens strength as they are 4th best in the league allowing 6.5 yards per attempt vs play action. So that is strength on strength. The biggest edge in this game is the Baltimore offense vs the Tennessee defense. The Ravens travel well at 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31, and my numbers say the Ravens should be a small favorite here. Make the play on Baltimore.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks have 107 wins together since Wilson was drafted in 2012. That is 2nd to just the Patriots over the time period. They have had one nemesis, the LA Rams. The Rams have won 10 of the 18 meetings between these teams, the only team that has faced the Seahawks more than twice to have a winning record against them. The 18 meetings have seen 12 decided by a TD or less. While McVay seems to be holding out on Goff's status, he has practiced all week without any impact. I would think he goes for the Rams, but if you think he is a deal breaker consider the Rams beat Seattle and Wilson before with Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, and Kellen Clemens at QB. If the Rams win this game, it will be on defense. Expect McVay to pull off a few gadgets here as the Ram's offense has utilized tight ends and wide receivers 32 times this season for a pair of TDs. The Rams are 2nd in the league in adjusted sack rate. There is also a strong chance that LT Andrew Whitworth is back this week. The Rams defense rank 1st in a lot of categories and the Seattle offense has really struggled over the 2nd half of the season. Seattle has become a run oriented team. They passed 63% of the time over the first half of the season and just 57% of the time since. Special teams have been an issue for the Rams this season, and Seattle has the edge here, but there is nothing better than taking a defensive dog in the playoffs. The Rams are in an 81-52 ATS playoff situation as well. Make the play on the LA Rams.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills have been good all season, but have been the best team over their last 10 games where they are 9-1. The only loss over those 10 games came on a Kyler Murray Hail Mary in Arizona. The Bills have also covered 8 straight games.The Colts offense should have success moving the ball as the Bills pressure rate is a rather pedestrian 24.6% and the Colts allow a pressure rate of 18.1%, which is 3rd best in the league. Rivers has thrown all but 2 of his interceptions when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. The Colts have been the best team in the league in big play running opportunities. If they can get Taylor past the line, Indianapolis may be in for some big running plays. The Bills offense is going to score. Josh Allen has quickly grown into one of the top QBs in the league and his accuracy has taken a quantum leap. There is some question marks regarding the health of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, who are not at 100%. Te Colts will play a lot of zone coverage, and hope for a big defensive play as Allen has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions vs the zone. The Colts can't lose touch with the Bills. They have to slow down the Bills offense, and avoid playing catch up. If they can get this into the 4th quarter with the game undecided they have some advantages to come away with a win, or at least the cover. Playoff teams off a win that have a worse record than their opponents and not a dog of +9.5 or more are 64-41 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on Indianapolis.

This has been a great year for Colorado as they were not expected to be very good. The Buff`s are 4-1 with the only loss coming to Utah by 17, but that game was a lot closer than the final score. It was decided by 3 turnovers, or basically it was a pretty even game for the line of scrimmage. Texas under Tom Herman had another promising team that simply could not get over the top. All the rumors point to his exit. He has apparently been interviewing and wants out, and apparently so do a lot of the players. His team will be without 5 captains who have opted out, 3 NFL caliber players out, and 10 players all together, including a lot of the defense. Add in injuries, and this is not going to be a team resembling the 6-3 Longhorn`s season. The motivated team will be Colorado. The Buff`s played above expectations and will be ready to play. Texas is off a minster offensive game as they hung a 69 on Kansas St. but Bowl teams that scored 60 or more points in their game prior to their bowl are:

game type=BG and p:points>=60 and o:wins

There will be some wind and snow in Green Bay tonight, but most of the snow will occur before the game. The wind should not be strong enough to be much of a factor. This game fits a very strong situation, that plays on teams that are off at least 3 straight games turnover free, as long as their opponent has 3 or more turnovers in their last 3 games and the line is fewer than 5.5 points. For those that use SDQL, it looks like this:

p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

ATS:    80-37-4 (3.29, 68.4%)

These games have covered 68.4% of all games, with 121 games in the data set.

Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season at 11-0, but have now dropped 3 straight. The optics on Ben Roethlisberger are awful. He is either playing through an undisclosed injury, or he is at the end of his career, or both. He can no longer throw down field, and almost every completion is short, and his air yards per pass is the lowest in the NFL. The Steelers offense has become one of the worst in the league over their last 4 games. They have scored just 17ppg after averaging 30ppg through 10 games. Moreover, the Pittsburgh passing game isn't the only issue. The inability to stretch the defense has the running game ground to a halt averaging just 3ypc in the 4 games. The Colts are surging at 10-4 and have won 5 of its last 6 games. Perhaps most notable is QB Phillip Rivers who is having a very good year. The Colts are taking care of the ball, and that is a very positive predictive indicator as a team that has played at least 3 straight clean games, meaning no turnovers, and facing a team that has committed at least 3 turnovers in total over its last 3 games are a sizzling 80-37-4 ATS. Indianapolis also fits a contrary late season indicator that is 267-175-4 ATS. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Miami Dolphins opened last season with 7 straight losses, and here we are just a year later and the Dolphins are 9-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Just a few weeks ago the Raiders were 6-3 and looking like a playoff team themselves, but enter this contest at 7-7. The numbers however tell a different story. Miami may be 9-5 but they are getting out-gained by 30 yards per contest, and are below average on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have the biggest advantage with their passing attack vs the weak pass defense of the Dolphins. The Dolphins have turned their opponents over 26 times, and have had 7 games with 2 or more. Turnovers in the NFL are for a large part random. The Dolphins on average in 7 of their 9 wins have held a +1.75 turnover advantage. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule with 7 playoff teams thus far, logging 3 wins against them. Derek Carr will be back under center, and the QB edge is significant. Miami has some banged up receivers and in general is in a lot worse health than the Raiders. While most bettors like to take the team in need of a win in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, that is totally not the way to go. Week 16 and 17 in the NFL show a long history to prove that point. Play on a team in week 16 and 17 that has the worst record coming into the game as long as they are not an under dog of +5.5 points or more. These teams are 267-175-14 ATS.  Make the play on Las Vegas.

The New York Giants playoff hopes took a hit last week vs Arizona. After 4 straight wins, the Giants were a no-show last week losing 26-7. The Giant's liability has been an offense that is producing 14.3ppg over its last 3 games, and just 300 total yards a game on the season. They will face the red-hot Baker Mayfield offense of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has hung 40+ on each of its last 2 opponents with Mayfield throwing for nearly 700 yards in the two contests. QB Daniel Jones is questionable for this game for the Giants and the Browns offense is going to be the best unit on the field for this one. The Giants defense may keep them in it, but Cleveland will come away with another win.

The Seattle Seahawks scored 31 or more points in 7 of their first 8 games. They struggled the next 4 weeks where they failed to score more than 28 in any game, and averaged fewer than 20 points per game. The Jets were just what this tam needed as they scored a season high 40 points. The fact is Seattle has out-gained each of its last 4 opponents allowing fewer than 20 points per contest. While the offense has been slumping the poor defense has really stepped things up. Washington has been a hot team, but QB Alex Smith left last game with a calf injury and his status is up in the air. Wshington has allowed just 14.3ppg in their 4 game winning streak, but have been out-gained in their last 2. The winning streak has been fueled by a positive turnover margin in all 4 games where they are +5. The QB differential here is extremely favorable to Seattle, as Smith has 4 Tds and 6 INTs, and Wilson has thrown for 38 TDs. I think Seattle got their heads back on straight last week, and I think they win big here. Make the play on Seattle.

The Pats were embarrassed last time out vs the Rams in a prime time 24-3 blowout loss. Historically giving him extra time to prepare has been lethal as Belichick coached teams are 25-3 SU and 20-6-2 ATS on 8 to 12 days rest. His team's are also 74-49-3 ATS off a loss. Sprinkle in a 21-5 Su mark vs a rookie QB, and a 65% ATS winning rate vs 1st or 2nd year QBs and there is a lot of situations that historically has New England in a prime position here. The Pats are also 24-1-1 ATS off a loss since 2003 vs a better than .570 opponent to a line that is less than -7. Too much to ignore here. Make the play on New England.

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs are 2-7 and they have not been able to generate much offense. They are averaging 17.3ppg on the season.The Missouri defense has not held up against the top teams in the conference, but the poor offensive teams in SC, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky have scored a combined 20 points against them or 6.7ppg. Miss St. St. is the worst running team in the nation averaging 1.4 yards per carry. It has forced them to put the ball in the air 54 times a game. The aerial attack generates just 5.8 yards per attempt to a schedule of opponents allowing 7.4. Missouri is 5-4 with 3 of the losses to Alabama,Florida, and Georgia. I think there is a TD difference between these teams and will make the play on Missouri.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes were granted the right to play for the Big-10 Championship despite playing just 5 games this season. Ohio St. finished 5-0, and will take on Northwestern. This game is going to come down to the Northwestern defense and its ability to slow down the high octane offense of Ohio St. Northwestern has a legit elite defense, and finished the season 6-1. The lone loss was against Michigan St. where they had 23 players miss the game due to injuries or covid-19. They gave up 29 points. If you take that game out the Wildcats allow 12ppg. I don't expect the Cats to score a lot in this game on offense, but their defense is good at forcing turnovers and Justin Fields has been a bit less secure with the ball compared to last season. Ohio St. does not have anything close to defenses we have seen in the past from this team. They are at best very average. Northwestern also has a significant special teams edge in this game. Ohio St. fits into a Conference Championship situation that is 0-10 ATS. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Buffalo offense is led by Jeret Patterson who gained over 1000 yards despite a shortened 5 game season, and scored 18 TDs. Most of those stats cane against some horrific run stop units in Bowling Green, Kent St., and Akron where the Bulls ran for 1,339 yards. Those numbers were not nearly as good as the 2 better run defenses they saw in N. Illinois and Miami,O. The Bulls ran for just 5.0 yards per attempt. Ball St. allowed just 4.6 yards per attempt, so the Bulls should not be able to run all over the Ball St. defense. Buffalo is not so good on the defensive side of the ball and Ball St. averages 33.6ppg and should be able to stay in this game. The hype on Buffalo has allowed this line to creep upward, and the value here is on Ball St.

The Baltimore Ravens are desperate for a win, but is that enough? This simply is not the same team as a year ago. Lamar Jackson threw 35 TD passes last year, and he has just 8 this season as his QB rating has gone from 107.8 to 93.2. He is still a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. Baker Mayfield is on a roll and so is Cleveland now eyeing the AFC Central division title with the Pittsburgh loss last night. Mayfield has not thrown an interception in 6 games, after throwing 21 a year ago. The Ravens love to blitz, and do so on almost 50% of all downs, but Mayfield averages 1.3 yards per pass play more against the blitz vs a conventional rush. One of the biggest reason is the maturation of the Cleveland offensive line. They went from poor in the first 6 games to the #! unit in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. The Browns have Myles Garrett back and he will be a problem as Baltimore has lost LT Ron Stanley an All-Pro player, and Garrett is going to have an impact. Baltimore has lost the explosiveness they showed last season where they scored 40 points in 5 games, and have not gotten to 40 even one time this year, in fact they have reached 30 just 4 times, after averaging more than that last year. The offense is down 6 points per game, and Cleveland is 5 over last year, and hung 40 on the Ravens in a win a year ago. Cleveland has revenge and a situation that plays on a better than .500 team off a road win and cover against an opponent that is off a home favorite win. These teams are 62-25-1 ATS, including 47-15-1 ATS if a dog of 4 or fewer points. Make the play on Cleveland.

While there is some low sample size situations on the under in this game, I have a couple large sample size situations (195-105 ATS, and 148-96 ATS) on the over, and the game caps out to 53.5 points scored. I always trust large samples over small ones, and with this game capping out at 53.5, make the play on the over.

Phillip Rivers will take on the Raiders for the 29th time in his career. That will be a new record for a QB facing the Raiders. He certainly has had a lot of success against them with 18 wins and 47 TD passes, along with over 7,000 passing yards. Not sure how meaningful that is, but it is a story for the history books at least. The Raiders barely escaped last week vs the Jets. The Jets chose to blitz, and basically it was a very poor coaching decision. Derek Carr has averaged 8 yards per attempt vs the blitz this year, and just 6.5 yards per pass attempt facing a conventional rush. That is important because the Colts are able to generate a strong pass rush without blitzing. The Colts rank in the top 3 teams in the NFL in terms of fewer blitzes. Not only should that limit Carr this week fom being highly effective, TE Darren Waller had a career-high 200 yards last week vs the Jets (that was more than half of the total passing yards by the Raiders). The Colts have shut down TE's all season, with none generating more than 65 yards, including just 1 TD. WR Hunter Renfroe will be shutdown by Kenny Moore who  ranks in the top 5 in fewest yards allowed per cover snap. Moreover, Josh Jacobs is not healthy, and he will not find a lot of room against a Colt's top 10 run stop unit.I think Phil Rivers faces similar issues against the Raiders defense, but I like the match up much more that the Colts defense has vs the Raiders. The Raiders were at their best when the running game was in high gear. During their 3 game winning streak the Raiders averaged better than 190 rushing yards per game vs Cleveland, the Chargers and Denver. The last 3 has seen that reduced to a woeful 67 yards per game. Josh Jacobs missed last game, and is status is in doubt this week. Make the play on Indianapolis. 

Typical NFL set up game. The Giants are flying off a huge win in Seattle, are top contenders in the NFL East (Least), and have won 4 straight. The Giant`s bandwagon is standing room only. Meanwhile, in Arizona the Card`s are leaking oil severely. Arizona has found the in column in just 1 game in their last 5 and has failed to cover any of them. The Giants held Seattle to 12 points and has not allowed any of their last 4 opponents to score more than 20. Looks like Daniel Jones will be under center again, and he has just 5 TDs to 7 INTs this season and his QB rating is down 10 points. Giants are just 73-100 ATS in their last 173 home games. Make the play on Arizona.

This game fits a total situation that is 178-113 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-57 ATS and the play is on the over.

The UCLA Bruins own a winning record for the first time since 2017. USC has started strong at 4-0 but has managed to play just 2 games since 21 days as they dealt with a small covid outbreak. Their last game was pushed back 2 days, and they have had less time to prepare for UCLA, UCLA opened with a tough loss to Colorado, and just missed the upset of Oregon as a 2 TD underdog. Te Bruins have looked better every time they have taken the field and have covered 4 straight games, and have held 3 of those opponents to an average of 12.7ppg. These teams have played pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but the two factors, less prep time for USC, and the Bruins getting better by the week has me calling for the small upset here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Army and Navy game is usually a stand alone game that signals the end of the college football season. It is typically played on a neutral field, but like a lot of things covid-19 has altered that history. This game will be played at Army, along with a full college schedule. Navy has not been the same team as they had been over a decade or so. They own just 3 wins on the season by a combined margin of 9 points. This is usually for the Commander in Chief's Trophy, but that won't be decided until next week when Army takes on Air Force. The Navy offense has been grounded the last 2 weeks generating just 13 total points. The usually strong Navy ground game is as bad as it has been in a long time, generating just 3.7 yards an attempt and only 185 yards per game. They will have trouble moving the football against an Army team that sees the option in practice and defends it better than any team on the Navy schedule. Army is running the ball very well at nearly 300 yards per game. Navy is being out-gained by 107 yards per contest while Army is +58 yards. Make the play on Army.

Since the start of the 2015 season Rutgers has gone 6-45 SU in Big-10 games.The average margin has been over 22 points per game. Those 6 wins have seen just 4 of them come on the road. The good news is 2 have come this season at Michigan St., and Purdue. Greg Schiano has made an immediate impact to the program. He has them at 3-0 ATS on the road. Rutgers has been so bad for so long in conference play, a lot goes unnoticed.The numbers are staggering. Rutgers lost on average 3-36.4 on the road last year. This year they are 34-35.3. That is a 32 point improvement from last year. Maryland has looked improved also, but has only managed to play 4 times this season due to covid-19. They have had 3 of their last 4 games cancelled.I just don't see how a team maintains chemistry and sharpness to execute to the level that is needed on game day. I think Rutgers is well under the radar, especially after losing badly to a Penn St. team that is very underrated due to the record. That being said, Rutgers only failed to cover by 3 points. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a total situation that is 536-297-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

It has been a crazy season for NCAA Football. Wake Forest has managed to play just 1 game since October 31st. They were a victim of covid-19 said to have impacted 35 scholarship players. Wake Forest held a full practice last Saturday for the first time since Thanksgiving. I would imagine the Wake Forest offense averaging better than 39 points per game is not going to be as precision as what would be considered normal. Louisville has lost 4 games by 7 points or fewer and is a lot better than their 3-7 record would indicate. Wake Forest will be without Kenneth Walker, a prime running back in the offense, as he left the team 4 days ago. Louisville has the better offense while the deefenses are pretty much even. Make the play on Louisville.

The Buffalo Bills have not won a playoff game since 1993, some 27 years ago. They are on track to make the playoffs this season, and hope to break the drought. San Francisco has been forced to move its home games due to covid-19 so this game will be at a neutral sight in Arizona. This is a classic spot for Circadian Rhythms to impact the game. Sunday and Monday Night NFL games has seen West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams due to the human body clock, something proven by science and backed up by the West Coast team's record which is 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS, covering 31 years of data. This is a must win for the 49ers if they have any hope of making the playoffs. The Niners have also been king of Monday Night Football where they are 39-14-1 ATS. (7-0 ATS vs AFC since 1994). Buffalo may be 8-3 on the season but has collectively been out-gained by their opponents, while the 5-6 Niners are +48 yards a game vs their 11 opponents to a slightly stronger schedule.I like San Francisco in this one.

The Washington Redskins have not had a regular season with more than 10 wins since 1991. They are just 4-7 this year, but still in contention in the NFC East. The Steelers look to make it 11 straight wins to start the season. I like the fact that a lot of these teams success has been with effective blitzing, but this match up features a pair of QBs that get rid of the ball very quickly. The Redskins pass rush is probably the strength of the team. Roethlisberger leads the NFL in fastest time to throw, and that will negate the strength of this Washington team. Pittsburgh throws the ball 40 times a contest, and that is even higher recently. Alex Smith is getting rid of the ball very quickly as well, and that will frustrate the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, the defensive line. Pittsburgh is 84-56 ATS in their last 140 games as a home favorite of 7 or fewer points. I think the match up here figures to see the ball in the air a lot which tends to slow games down from a clock standpoint. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 236-169 ATS and the play is on the under.

The New Orleans Saints were projected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. The offense was never an issue, but this team was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league. They dealt with a lot of early injuries. A little known fact is the Saints since the start of the 2017 season have the best record in the NFL during the regular season at 46-13. Yes, better than the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots. They are 46-13 SU and of those 13 losses, 7 have occurred in game number 1,2, and 17. Their poor starts are well documented. They are otherwise 42-6 SU. They have covered 67% of those games. The Saints defense I spoke of earlier has allowed 25 total points in their last 4 games, including 3 to Tampa Bay. They have allowed 832 total yards on 200 plays defended at just over 4 yards per play. Tht is ultra elite. Atlanta is dealing with injuries to a pair of key offensive players. Julio Jones (hamstring) and Todd Gurley (knee), are both questionable, an even if they play, they won`t be 100%. The Saints are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS without Brees the last 2 years. The Falcons are 6-24-1 ATS at home off a home win in their last 31 games, failing to cover by over 7ppg, including 0-10 ATS as a home dog, or pick. Make the play on New Orleans

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS and the play is on the over.

I expected the New Orleans Saints to be one of the top defenses in the league this season. The Saints got off to their annual slow start, and injuries were mounting, and the defense was not performing up to expectations. That has all changed as New Orleans has become dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing just 225 points in their last 4 games including just 9 vs Atlanta. The Saints offense without Drew Brees under center has become run heavy as they have attempted just 62 passes in the last 3 games, while running the ball110 times. This compares to the previous 3 games with Brees as QB passing 113 times. This certainly shortens the game with the clock in motion significantly more than previously. Todd Gurley has been ruled out for Atlanta, and Julio Jones looks like a game time decision, so the Atlanta offense is not nearly at full strength. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings have had issues on defense all season long. They held an inept Bears offense to 19 points and very little ball movement. Their other most recent 5 games has seem them allow an average of over 400 yards per contest. The Minnesota offense should have no trouble moving the ball vs a depleted Jacksonville defense, as the powerful Viking offense coupled with a horrible defense has led them to 5 games over the total in their last 6. This is also supported by a situation that is 131-88 ATS. Make the play on the over.

Grant Gunnell the Arizona QB left last game with an injured shoulder, and is questionable for Colorado this week. I'm trying to get ahead of the situation, before he gets declared out, but I like this game even if he plays. Arizona has lost 10 straight games going back to last year. They have lost them by a combined 183 points,and 9 of the 10 losses have been by double-digits. Arizona is being out-gained on the season by over 100 yards per game. They have also lost 6 defensive backs since the start of the season, and the offensive line is bad.Colorado has been the biggest Pac-12 surprise this season thus far at 3-0. The Buff's have been dominating on defense, and have a well above average passing attack. This looks like another 10+ point loss for the Wildcats. Make the play on Colorado.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

Texas AM is on the cusp of making the 4 team playoff for a National Championship. It appears that the noose is starting to tighten for this team. Last week vs an abysmal LSU defense they generate just 267 yards of offense. The game ended 20-7, but the yardage was even. They finished the game 3 in turnovers and still did not cover at home. This team also threw up a stinker vs hapless Vanderbilt, a 17-12 win. This is a tricky game for the Aggies as Auburn lost to Alabama last week but was only out-gained by 98 yards so the game played a lot closer than the final score. Auburn is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog, and all 7 wins were outright.The Tiger are 27-3 SU in its last 30 home games,and none of the losses have come by more than 7 points. I could see Auburn coming away with an outright win here, so the points certainly look like a great position. AM certainly has a tough history vs winning teams where they are 72-99 ATS in their last 171. Make the play on Auburn.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

No, write ups this week

Play is on KC

No, write ups this week

Play is on SF

No, write ups this week

Play is on Atlanta

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on Indianapolis

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on Minnesota

It appears the Tampa Bay Bucs night game failures has gotten into their heads. So much so that Coach Bruce Ariens as he went as far as scheduling practices at night this week. The Rams. The Rams are well suited to handle the Bucs bevy of talented WRs as they have allowed just 200 air yards a game holding opponents well below their season averages in yards per pass play. The Rams held a more lethal offense in Seattle to 333 total yards in their last game. The Rams have played 6 straight games to the under allowing just over 16ppg. Despite being the 1st team to have 3 Pro Bowl receivers in the fold, Brady has already equaled his INTs from a year ago with 8, and his yards per attempt have not changed. The Bucs are just 5-17-2 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, and keep in mind that their next game is vs the Kansas City Chiefs. This looks like a FG type of game, so there is some line value. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Green Bay Packers had a huge statistical edge last week vs Jacksonville but ha to fight to the finish in a 24-20 home win vs Jacksonville. They will have a strong test vs Indianapolis on the road this week. This game is pretty even statistically, but I believe the biggest things here are the match ups. Indianapolis is strong vs the run, but are vulnerable to the passing game, perhaps the biggest advantage on the field. That advantage is enhanced by Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is having arguably his best season as a Packer, as his completion percentage is 2nd best of his career,his 26 TD passes project out to finish as his best, his 8.3% TD rate is #2, his QBR rating is a career high, and has been sacked just 10 times, projecting to a career low. Rivers has had a strong career, but just 11 TDs and 7 INTs puts him on schedule to have his 10th straight season with 10 or more (his average 15.3). While he has fumbled just 1 time this year, he has fumbled 8+ times in 9 of the last 14 years, so certainly more coming soon. A game that projects fairly even, is usually decided by the QB and turnovers. That gives Green Bay a strong advantage in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 117-54 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The surging Minnesota Vikings opened the season at 1-5, but have rallied back to win 3 straight and look to get to .500 vs the struggling Dallas Cowboys. Dallas may be the first NFL team in history to be 2-7 and have a good shot at winning their division. They will get Andy Dalton back, so will have a legit QB under center after 2 weeks o struggles. The Cowboys are also off a bye. The Dallas defense seems to be getting it together as they held unbeaten Pittsburgh to 46 yards on the ground in their last game. Minnesota is not a good defensive team and Dallas can run out 3 high caliber receivers and opportunities will be there. I think Dallas has a shot for a win here and will gladly take the points. Make the play on Dallas.

The Cleveland Browns have seen their last 2 games played score a combined 39 points vs Houston and Vegas. Th Browns offense also struggled against a pair of elite defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, scoring a combined 13 points in the 2 games. I see a lot of hidden value in this game regarding the total. The last 2 games the Browns have played were both in impossible conditions with rain and extremely high winds. While their is rain in the forecast in Cleveland, the winds will not be a factor. Cleveland outside of 2 games vs elite defenses, and 2 extremely poor weather games has averaged 37.4ppg in their other 5 games. The Eagles should get their share here as they have scored 17-29 points in every game. Make the play on the over.

Hard to believe that the 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles are in 1st place in the NFC Least. Carson Wentz is having an awful year at this point and leads the league in INT`s with 12, and his completion percentage is down to 58.s%. So why are thy such a small under dog vs the 6-3 Cleveland Browns? The Eagles and Wentz offense is at its best when Wentz can move out of the pocket. The offense has not taken advantage of that and Pederson has vowed they are going to start doing a lot more of that, as it puts a lot of pressure on the defense, not Cleveland`s strong suit. The RB combo o Chubb and Hunt are considered one of the leagues best, but guess what? Philly is better generating 5.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, while Cleveland is 5.1 vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.6. Both teams have been out-gained on the season. Since division realignment in 2002 a road team that has a losing record and lost on the road the previous week are 241-188-5 ATS, including 191-138-2 ATS if they lost their last game as a road dog and are a road dog again, as a below .500 tem. Make the play on Philadelphia.

This comes down to this quote from the Kansas St. coach:
In a year that defines uncertainty, Kansas State coach Chris Klieman finds himself in a strange situation, even by today's standards.

Kansas State intends to head to Ames, Iowa, on Saturday to face No. 17 Iowa State as both teams hold on to hope of appearing in the Big 12 title game. But Klieman and the Wildcats are not sure they will have enough players to make the trip.

"We don't have enough (healthy) guys to shift around," Klieman said. "That's probably our issue. We're (practicing) with the guys that we have, just knocking on wood that we can get through Wednesday's tests, and Friday's tests.

"We're not the only ones in the country dealing with this. We're just down so many guys in certain spots that we can't even move people. So I'm just knocking on wood that we get good results the rest of this week."

That being said, obviously whoever travels, is going to be coming out of a week of preparation that didn't involve players playing in the game, and many backups. This from a team that not counting the B-12 doormat Kansas, their last 3 games has resulted in these ugly numbers:

37 drives
4 TDs
6 turnovers
15 three and outs

Iowa St. controls its own destiny to win the Big-12. Iowa St. enters this game completely healthy with 1 player on the injury report, and have an NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy and a strong running game to close the door. Make the play on Iowa St.

The UCLA Bruins are off an improbable but impressive win over Oregon St. in what turned out to be a Sunday matinee. They were originally slated to face Utah, but the unpredictable era of covid-19 game them fewer than 48 hours to prepare for California. The question is, having taken the bumps and bruises for the first time, how do they come back heading into the deep part of the pool on 5 days rest against Oregon? I think they will have their hands full. The Ducks have shown on offense to be the most balanced and lethal team in the country as their 539 yards a game is evenly split running and passing. The win over Cal wasn't so much about what the Bruins did, it was about a Cal team that couldn't tackle, and looked totally unprepared, but that just adds value here. Remember, UCLA lost their opener as a 7 point favorite vs Colorado where they were torched for over 500 yards. The Ducks have won an covered both games, despite being -2 in turnovers in one game, and -3 in the other. Think this one has blowout potential, and make the play on Oregon.

This game is from my totals system and the play is on the under.

The Iows Hawkeyes have turned their season around after starting 0-2 they have won the last 2 in convincing fashion. The last 2 wins have come by a combined score of 84-14. Quite a different start to the season for Penn St. as they have opened at 0-4. The Nitany Lions with a loss will be the first team in their illustrious history to start the season 0-5. This is a good match up for the Penn St. defense going against the power ground game of Iowa St. While the Iowa running game has been superb, the passing game has been horrific. The Lions have a stout run stop unit, and the Hawkeyes last 4 meeting vs Penn St. shows an 0-4 mark averaging just 79.2 yards a game. Penn St. has out-gained 3 of 4 opponents, and only Ohio St. has out-gained them. The Lions in fact have out-gained 2 of their 4 opponent by over 200 yards a game, an have played a much tougher schedule. Everything that can go wrong has for them thus far. Iowa comes into this game at +4 in turnovers an Penn St. -6. That is a 10 possession advantage in the stats for Iowa, or 2.5 per game. When you incorporate that into the stats, Penn St. is the better team, and has considerable line value here. Iowa has long struggled facing off vs the blue-bloods of the conference, Penn St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. as thy are 2-15 SU covering just 6 in th last 17. Wrong team favored. Make the play on Penn St.

I don't put out game of he month or year picks every week like so many betting services just taking money on hype. So I don't want to over-hype this game, stay the course, it is just 1 game and anything can happen. Cincinnati has not allowed more than 17 points to any team all season, and the offense looks improved. All of that is true. Central Florida on the other hand appears to be a tick down. Certainly not the offense, the speed that they run plays is unseen before. One area of omission working in UCF's favor is they run 9 more plays on average than their opponent per game and at 7.2 yards per play that is significant. Cincinnati runs 5 fewer plays than their opponent, so there is 100 potential yards on the side o UCF. UCF has never been favored by fewer than 3.5 points at home since they have gotten good, so this game is suddenly about 9 points more than that? Thy are 7-1-1 ATS at home in the few games they were favored by -17.5 or less. Their last 45 games has seen their biggest loss come by one possession, or 8 points. You can't measure the Cincinnati defense from what they have played so far, this is not near any of those games. Yes, I respect the Cincinnati defense, but UCF is not going to be playing in somewhat o a disinterested game, they are going to be bringing all of it here. They are 3-0 against undefeated teams winning by 4 TDs a game! Make the play on Central Florida.

The Seattle Seahawks are 6-2 and have scored 34 points or more in both losses. It is pretty clear thee offense is elite, but the defense is horrible. Settle QB Russell Wilson is having an MVP season but in the last loss vs Buffalo the Seahawks were don in by 4 turnovers. The fact is Seattle is 6-0 when they turn over the ball 1 time or less, and in their 2 losses they turned the ball over 7 times. Seattle is now 122-97-6 ATS off a loss (18-5-3 ATS lately). They are also 8-2-1 ATS of a double digit loss in their last 11. Wilson is 19-11 ATS as a dog including 16-8 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on Seattle.

Buffalo is off to their best start since 1993. A lot of it is on the maturation of QB Josh Allen. Arizona QB Kyler Murray ha improved tremendously as well, and is on pace to gain over 1000 yards on the ground. I like the match up for Buffalo against th most potent weapon in the Arizona attack in DeAndre Hopkins, who will have to deal with Tre’Davious White, and all-pro corner that just held DK Metclf to 2 catches last week. The Bills defense is coming alive with 13 sacks the last 3 games along with 7 takeaways. The Cards appear to be close to being rebuilt, while the Bills seem to be 1 stap ahead of them at this point. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Miami Dolphins are growing up fast, and are now 5-3 as they come into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. The issue here is the Dolphins have been very fortunate as they are 5-3 but they are getting beaten at the line of scrimmage by 62 yards per contest. They beat the Rams but managed just 145 yards, and were out-gained by over 300 yards. Last week a similar story. Those 2 games saw them generate 4 non-offensive TDs. The Chargers are just 2-6, but have out-gained their opponents by over 60 yards per game. The fact is the Chargers have had 120+ yard advantage on each of their last 3 opponents, and all of their 6 losses have been by 7 points or fewer. The surface says Miami is better, but reality says the Chargers are better.Mke the play on the LA Chargers.

The NFC East has been awful this year and the Philadelphia Eagles lead the division with a 3-4-1 record. The Eagles are by far the freshest team in this game, coming off their bye, while this game makes 10 straight weeks for the Giants. Philly is getting healthy and the Giants are by now physically and mentally beaten up. The Giants last 5 games have been decided by a total of 10 points, and I think that will work against them here being their 10th game in a row. The Eagles are in a situation that plays on a team off at least 10 days rest as a road favorite of -3 to -10 points vs an opponent under .600 that is 49-15 ATS. The Giants are just 8-20 TS in their last 28 home games. Make the play on Philadelphia.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-108 ATS, and the play is on the over

Arkansas Head Coach Sam Pittman will miss this game, and will become the first SEC Head Coach to miss a game due to covid-19. The razorbacks are a story in the SEC, as they have been the biggest surprise. This is a team that had won just 4 games over the last 2 years, and have 3 wins already to a schedule that includes Georgia, Auburn, A&M, and Tennessee. Florida is coming off its biggest game of the season a 44-38 romp of Georgia, and may be without their best receiver in Kyle Pitts who is in concussion protocol. Arkansas has not had the caliber of QB like they do in Florida transfer Felipe Franks in years. He has 14 TD passes already, the most at Arkansas since 2016, and has thrown or over 200 yards in 6 straight, the most since 2000. While Florida is a high octane passing attack, the best part of the Arkansas team is the pass defense allowing 6 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 7.2. They will not stop Florida, but an extra stop or two as a big dog, could certainly be decisive. Florida has won just 1 game by more than 16 points, and Arkansas at the very least is equipped with a back door cover at the very least.Make the play on Arkansas.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are arguably off their biggest win ever. If not ever, it certainly is over the last 27 years as it marked their first win over that period where they defeated the #1 team in the country. Needless to say, this is as big of a letdown spot their is, and BC has already taken NC and Clemson to the brink this season. This the Red Bandana game at BC, as they honor Welles Crowther, who was a 9/11 hero, and BC Alum. This day has seen BC produce several upsets over the years, and can history repeat itself? BC upset a ND team that back in 1993 was off an upset of the #1 team in the country, and beat them. BC 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog with 5 outright wins. Make the play on BC.

The Louisiana program is alive and thriving. This is a team that from 1980 to 2010 never won more than 8 games. Since then they have done so 5 times, and at 6-1 on the season they are poised to make that 6. They certainly could challenge their program high 11 wins from a year ago. This game has plenty of hidden value. The Cajuns have under-performed their stats, have great special teams and a very strong defense. South Alabama is on the other side of the spectrum as the Jags have over-performed their stats on the season, and their defense is really bad. S. Alabama has certainly moved the ball well against poor offensive teams, but the top 3 defenses they have seen have limited them to 6,10,17 points, and Louisiana is better than those 3 defenses. The back door certainly has not shown to be open. Those 3 games have seen them out-scored 34-0 in the 4th quarter. This game has real blowout potential. Make the play on Louisiana.

SUCCESS AGAINST THE TRIPLE OPTION:

There are really 4 FBS teams that run the triple-option. They are the 3 military schools in Navy, Army, and Air Force, along with Georgia Southern. When a team faces the triple-option it is hard to prepare for as they just don't see it often enough. Today in the newsletter we will look at how teams fare when they have already seen the triple option this season, and have an actual game occurrence, and another week of practice to defend it. Not surprising, these teams fare pretty well in this case as we can see by:

HAVE FACED NAVY:

tS(o:team=NAVY)=1 and o:team in [ARMY,AIR,GASO]
ATS:     51-32-2

HAVE FACED ARMY:

24-14-1 ATS.

So having faced the main 2 military teams at least once already this season they are a combined 75-46-3 ATS!

This week Army will face a Tulane team that has already defended the option.

Make the play on Tulane.

The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-0 on the season, and the hype machine is in full force. They are ranked #10 in the country, which is way off the mark. there are few i any top 10 teams that are being out-gained from the line of scrimmage 5.3 yards per play to 4.7. Thy started the season with a 36-35 win vs Penn St. despite being out-gained 483-211. They also won the turnover battle. They beat Rutgers by 16, which included being +3 in turnovers. They had a big win vs Michigan and again were +2 in turnovers, and Michigan so far does not look as expected. Michigan St. opened the season with a loss to Rutgers by 11, in a game where they coughed the ball up 7 times! They also beat Michigan, but without the help of a single turnover. They were destroyed by Iowa last week, and once again a -3 in turnovers. Michigan St. has played dead even from the line of scrimmage and with power rating the schedules for each team it is dead even. This line is a perception line, and it is rich in value for Michigan St. Indiana also has Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Michigan St.

Sunday November 8th, 2020

  Top Side Play · [472] Arizona Cardinals
    Sun Nov 8th, 2020 4:25pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: NOT TOO MANY LIKE THIS ONE:

Most that read this newsletter I frequently shun any system that has fewer than 100 games that comprise the system itself so keep that in mind as you read today`s newsletter. This one is kind of an outlier in that respect because it does not involve all that many back fits and the results speak for themselves and it makes sense to me. I`ll leave that up to the reader to decide. This is for rested NFL favorites that look like this:

1) Favorite on 10 or more days rest.

2) Scored 35 or more points last game

3) Opponent is less than .600

4) Line is -7 or fewer points

5) opponent is better than .400


So that isn`t an over-abundance of crazy conditions, it is a reasonable number of ogical conditions, but again, I will let the reader digest this, and decide, as this is for the most part out of my wheelhouse.

THE STUNNING RESULTS:

rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and F

Record (marg, pct)
SU: 30-0-0 (12.77, 100.0%)
ATS: 29-0-1 (8.32, 100.0%)



This goes back 30 years, so not a lot of plays and these teams have held a cover advantage of 8.32 points. It is interesting to note these teams are 30-0 SU as well, winning by 12.77ppg. The average line is -4.5 points which happens to be exactly where the line on this week`s qualifier presently sits.

Make the play on Arizona

We are in November an this is the time of the year plying in Buffalo could be very challenging for the road team. That won't be the case this Sunday, as game time temperatures are expected in the 60s and sunny, no wind. Buffalo has had trouble running the ball this year, and for a team built on defense, they are upside down in the defensive stats vs their schedule of opponents. That will make life difficult against the hottest QB in the NFL Russell Wilson. The Bills are starting to look like last year's team that started 9-3 and finished 1-4. They are a 6-2 team without a blowout win, and just 2-2 in their last 4 and have failed to cover any of them. They are now a 6-2 team that has been slightly out-scored by their opponents, so lots of red flags here. Scoring on this Seattle team is not difficult, but can you slow them down? Think of this, their have only been 5 teams in the last 20 years to open the season scoring 27 or more points in every game, and they all went to the Super Bowl. I see a lot of edges here for the Seahawks and favorable match ups. Make the play on Seattle.

I'm not going to do a detailed write up for this game. I like Indianapolis regardless of the covid-19 outcomes with a bunch of Raven's players. I also like the hedge, because the line will change considerable if additional Raven's players come down with covid. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Kansas City Chiefs offense has just not been nearly as dominating than what he have sen in recent years, but the defense has been improved. Carolina is just 3-5 on the season but have out-gained their 8 opponents. They are plus yards on both sides of the ball, and come into this game with extra rest and will get Christian McCaffrey back this week. Teddy Brigewater has really excelled in this role over his career as he is 15-2 ATS in his career as a road dog. The Chiefs have won 2 straight games by 24 or more points, and teams doing so are 39-56-1 ATS including 7-24 ATS if they are an elite team with a winning percentage better than .815. I don't see incentive here for the Chiefs to run up another one, despite going into their bye week next week. Make the play on Carolina.

New Mexico is in a really tough spot this season. The administration was forced to take creative and drastic measures to play football this season. They would not have been able to play in New Mexico due to the states very strict covid-19 rules. This forced them to form somewhat of a partnership with UNLV. The agreement allows the New Mexico Coaches and players to stay in their student housing and use Sam Boyd Stadium. Might be the strangest situation ever. It sure looked like things were in disarray last week where San Jose St. lit them up for nearly 600 yards of offense. Now they will play their 2nd straight road game, but have to travel all the way to Hawaii. The Warriors have split a pair of toss-up games to start the season. Hawaii closed the season a year ago with 4 straight home wins vs the likes of San Diego St., Army, BYU, and San Jose St. The last time New Mexico was in hawaii was in 206, so few if any players have been here to face all the distractions, as if they haven't had enough already. Make the play on Hawaii.

 Mike Leach had this Washington St. program revived, but he has moved on, and the talent level has declined. This program has had its ups and downs going through periods o being very bad, to others where they have been very good. It remains to be seen where it goes from here. Nick Rolovich is coming over from Hawaii where his team`s were 21-31-1 ATS, not that enticing. His teams allowed 34.5ppg while at Hawaii. Johnathon Smith has the program at Oregon St. heading in the right direction. I think they have a lot more here at this stage against a team with a new head coach in the era of covid trying to install a new offense with a true freshman QB on the road. A bit much to ask at this point. Make the play on Oregon S

This is strictly a situational play.

conference = o:conference and AD and total 4.5 and conference in [ACC , B10 , B12 , P10 , P12 , SEC] and op:points

Tulane has long been a team that never seems to have enough offense to win games. That has changed as the Green Wave has put up 34.5ppg over its last 21 contests. Tulane showed that offensive muscle last week vs Temple where they put up over 500 yards, churned out 28 first downs, and close to 300 rushing yards. E. Carolina had a heart breaker last week losing 34-30 with some bad calls late in the game. They put together perhaps their best game of the year and came up short. I`m not sure what they have left in the tank. ECU fits in a horrible situation for this one as well as home dogs that average 35 or more points a game, off a high scoring game (60 or more points), are just 155-268 ATS. Make the play on Tulane.

Michigan St. was horrible in their game vs Rutgers to open the season, as they were guilty of 7 turnovers. They appeared like a team that ws ready to get blown out my Michigan, but they pulled off the major upset. That has poised them here to appear to have a more favorable team, but I`m not buying into that. This team has been in decline the last few years, and despite what happened vs Michigan, this team is not a very good team. Iowa comes in with value as they are 0-2 but have m an advantage at the line of scrimmage where they have out-gained their 2 opponents by about 35 yards per game. Iowa QB Spencer Petras appeared to have a bad game with 3 INTs, a pair off them were off deflections. This looks like a prime letdown spot for Michigan St. and a well focused Iowa team that will look to redeem an 0-2 start. Make the play on Iowa.

The New Orleans Saints have had all kinds of problems in the early season for several years, despite so many good teams. Since the start of the 2015 season the Saints are 7-14 SU and 7-14 ATS. They have never had a winning record after 3 games. It seems like week 4 they find their mojo and take off. The Saints from game 4 through game 8 over the same period are 29-4 SU and 26-6-1 ATS. This year has been no exception. The Saints are rolling and have won 3 straight games. They have 20 straight wins from week 4-8, and overall they are 23-2-1 ATS during this time frame when the line is less than -6. The Bears are 5-2 but have been out-gained on the season by 34ypg. They have been held to 280 yards or fewer over their last 4 games,and can't run the ball at all, as they have averaged just 44ypg over those 4 games. The best part of their offense is Allen Robinson, who is now in concussion protocol, and may not see the field Sunday. The look ahead weather forecast in Chicago shows windy conditions (gusts in the 20s), so if you can't run the ball, there is trouble. Brees is 30-14 ATS off of 2 wins the last 5 years. New Orleans defense is better than it looks and they have held 3 teams to a season low in yards. Chicago has scored 16 points or fewer in 10 of their last 23 games, while the Saints have gone for 30+ in 15 of their last 23. The Chicago offense did not snifff the end-zone last week, and are in off a short week as well. Make the play on New Orleans.

This game features a weather alert with winds sustained at 30 MPH during the game, with gusts to 45 MPH. The market has adjusted but not enough. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a 103-47 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

POST BYE NFL ROAD FAVORITES READY TO DELIVER:

A short time ago I wrote about a situation involving teams going into their bye. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at certain teams coming off their bye. It is now the part of the NFL schedule where byes are a weekly occurrence. It sets up situations that occur just 1 time per year, and over a prolonged period of time, some traits of these teams have identified themselves. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at a situation where a team off their bye and playing as a road favorite performs, especially if they scored well in their last game previous to the bye. Let's take a look:

1) Off a bye

2)  Road favorite

3)  Scored 28 or more points in their last game before the bye

These teams in the regular season since 1999 look like this:

tp:week+2=t:week and F and p:points>=28 and season>1998 and playoffs=0

That is a pretty simple situation, with powerful results as these teams cover just shy of 70% of all games with a sample size of 122 games. This week the Indianapolis Colts will be in the driver's seat to bring home the bacon on Sunday vs the Detroit Lions.

The Cleveland Browns pulled out an exciting win last week. There was a price in the victory as Odell Beckham was lost to a torn ACL. Baker Mayfield was hot and at one point of the game threw 20 straight completions. Despite perhaps his best outing as an NFL QB, throwing 5 TD passes as well, the Browns had to come from behind to beat a mediocre team. Vegas was hit by covid last week, and it showed as the defense was stung for 45 vs Tampa Bay. Vegas has been up and down but have good wins against Carolina, New Orleans, and Kansas City. You know what you are going to get in this game, a lot of offense as the Raiders games have averaged over 60 points a game, and all 6 have gone over. This will be their 7th straight game vs a team .500 or better. The Browns are 5-2 but have been out-scored by 3 points a game, and now face a better offense, while they are missing their best receiver in Beckham. Browns have 2 wins vs Cincinnati, and a win vs Washington, and Dallas, not all that impressive. Make the play on Vegas.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. You can be sure they are going to get the Ravens attention this week, who have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one. The Ravens have had no answers for the Kansas City Chiefs, but they sure have vs everyone else. Baltimore over its last 29 regular season games is 25-4. They are 25-1 against everyone else but the Chiefs, with the lone loss a fluke vs Cleveland last year. The rushing numbers are down for Baltimore, but that has some to do with Lamar Jackson nursing an injury, but he has had 2 weeks to prepare and get healthy here and I look for the Ravens to stiffly challenge the strong run stop unit of the Steelers. A team off their bye that scored 28 or more points in their last game previous to the bye is 81-39-2 ATS. (43-16-1 ATS if better than .670. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are heated rivals, and this is a huge game as the winner will certain be viewed as a high rated Super Bowl caliber team. Division games are wars, and this one has always been an intense battle. Intensity is often a synonym for defense and that is what I expect here in this one. These games virtually never meet scoring expectations, and in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore just one game has seen both teams combine for more than 46 points (48), and it has been 12 years since these teams have gotten to even 43. The Steelers are 28-2 to the under on the road to a total of fewer than 49 points in their last 30. Make the play on the under.

The Duke Blue Devils are 1-5 on the season, but they have played all ACC teams so far, and some good ones. Many will look at Duke being a big favorite as a 1-5 team to be a tough pill to swallow. History has other thoughts on that as a team that is 1-5 or worse and favored vs a .500 or better team is actually 11-2-1 ATS since 2010. That includes 8-0-1 ATS if they are favored by more than -4. Duke is also averaging a ridiculous 3.7 turnovers a game and all teams from game 3-8 (not many teams qualify after a 9th game), are 99-72-5 ATS including 45-23-2 ATS as a favorite, and 40-15-1 ATS if they are favored by -4 or more. Make the play on Duke.

It has been 3 weeks since Vanderbilt has taken the field, as they had their game vs Missouri postponed due to covid-19, and are off a scheduled bye last week. The Dores have been missing a lot of players from practice, although they are getting healthy. This Vanderbilt team is averaging a woeful 8ppg, and appears to be the worst offense in football right now. They should however have some success vs an Ole Miss team that is the worst defense in the SEC, but how much? Things got so bad for Ole Miss last week they had to add 2 offensive players to the defensive depth chart. This week they will certainly have a better defensive unit with CB's Jakorey Hawkins, and Deane Leonard returning, along with DE Tariquis Tisdale. Ole Miss has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, and has moved the ball well against all of them and have been out-gained by just 35ypg. QB Matt Corral had 9 TDs to just 1 INT through 3 games, but 3 TDs and 8 INTs in the last 2. Look for him to get back on track here. Vandy has allowed 40+ in their last 2 games, and while the offense should certainly score more than the 7 points they have in each of their last 2, they just don't have the necessary tools at the skill positions on offense to take advantage here. Vandy has scored no more than 14 points in its last 7 conference games and has allowed 36ppg inside the conference covering their last 28. I see a major blowout here. Make the play on Ole Miss.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a date at home next week vs Clemson. That may serve as a red flag for some bettors, as many will believe the Irish may have their eyes looking ahead against Georgia Tech. The surprising thing in all this is that the opposite is true. An unbeaten team that has their next game against an opponent that is ranked in the top 5 and is in game 4 or more, and favored by more than 17 points is actually 41-12 ATS.

WP = 100 and no:rank 3 and line < -17
SU:    52-1-0 (32.25, 98.1%)        Teaser Records
ATS:    41-12-0 (5.30, 77.4%)   

Make the play on Notre Dame.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights had what appears to be a big win over Michigan St. last week. The win snapped a 22 game conference losing streak. many are going to note that the difference is having Greg Schiano back. Schiano took over a Rutgers program, and it took him 5 years to get to a Bowl game, so to expect Rutgers to make a quantum leap after a win against a very bad Michigan St. team isn`t very feasible. Quietly the Michigan St. program he beat has been eroding for a few years, and there is not much left. The Spartans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games, and has not had a better than 10 point win in a conference home game since 2016! Rutgers was out-gained by about 100 yards vs a bad team. The Spartans also turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times, allowing the mediocre Rutgers offense to score 21 points on 3 drives that totaled 10 plays and 50 total yards. Indiana won 8 games a year ago, the most since 1993, and if QB Michael Penix Jr. stays healthy, the Hoosiers should have an even better team. Yes, Indiana beat Penn St. in a fluke, as they were out-gained by 277 yards. That was a horrible game by Penn St. that dominated completely, and the Nittany Lions are legit. They have 9 starters back on defense, from a team that allowed just 24.4ppg a year ago, and have edges all over the field. The Hoosiers are legit, and Rutgers is certainly improved, especially with an apparent upgrade at QB in Nebraska transfer Noah Vedral at QB. I think Rutgers will improve under Schiano, but after a surprise win, that was tainted by 7 turnovers, against a very bad team, this number is being held down. Indiana is legit, Rutgers is not. Make the play on Indiana

What a painful loss for a program that is desperate to get a win. Rice lined up for a game winning FG, and the ball hit the uprights, and crossbar 4 times before bouncing out. The game will forever be known as the quadruple doink. Rice ended up losing in double overtime. The Owls are now 6-31 over the last 3 years plus a game. Southern Miss has seen it all this year, as they are now on their 3rd head coach of the season, all this has happened in 5 games. The Eagles are off to a dreadful start at 1-4 SU/ATS being out-scored by 12.9ppg. The news gets worse as back up QB Tate Whatley is out, and tarting QB Jack Abraham missed last week with covid, but is expected to start on Saturday. Covid has really interfered with Southern Miss this season, and the coaching situation is like something never seen before. Seems like troubled waters. Make the play on Rice.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their bye, and have had a lot of time to prepare for the Cardinals. Arizona is actually coming off a Monday Night game, and has less time to prepare for Seattle. Russell Wilson is on pace for an MVP season, and the Seahawks are scoring TDs on 9 of every 10 trips in the red-zone. Arizona QB Kyler Murray has beeen somewhat erratic this season, but he is a threat with his legs, and I`m sure the Seattle defense has put a lot of exxtra time into taking him away as a runner, and make them beat him with his arm. Seattle gets a lot of exposure to their 12th man home base of fans, but Seattle is 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 on the road. Make the play on Seattle.