DEEBO SAMUEL  MVP     +2500   (1/2 of 1 UNIT)
>>
>> I always shy away from the QB's in this game, as it is the logical choice and the value is usually not there. that typically means I am on a long shot. i don't just like to choose a long shot on a whim, but on value so I will make the case for Deebo Samuel of the 49ers here. First, the 49ers have barely passed the ball at all in the post-season so the value is enriched as Samuel will not be on most bettors radar. He is on mine. The Niners were not sure what they had in Samuel early in the season, and his use was limited. Through 9 weeks he had 22 receptions for just 227 yards, or just over 10 yards a catch. he had just 1 catch for 30+ yards, and scored 1 TD. He also had 5 rushing attempts for 37 yards. Then starting in week 10 the Niners started to realize he had something to add to their attack. from week 10 on he caught 35 passes for 575 yards, or 16.5 yds. per catch, a quantum leap. he had 4 catches for 30+ yards and added 3 TDs. Since week 13 the 49ers wanted him to get more touches and he ran the ball 9 times for 122 yards. he had 4 runs of 20+ yards, and 2 TDs. despite the 49ers pretty much running their way to the Super Bowl he caught more balls, for more yards than any other receiver. he also ran the ball 3 times for 49 yards. When I make an MVP choice, I like players that can impact a game multiple ways (running and receiving in this case). I think the 49ers have so much to look out for that Samuel could become an under the radar part of the game plan, as he has taken on an expanded role late in the season and has delivered.
> ************************************************************************************************************************************************
> The rest of my Super Bowl props are all based on FGs. I have more detailed information on this than anyone would ever expect. It is because I had the foresight to track everything in this area for every Super Bowl, and the data I didn't have I added as I got older. These are some extremely powerful props based on FGs. I only consider the last 45 years. I have done so because the goal posts were moved in 1974 to the back of the end-zone which changed things. Here we go:
>
> UNDER   3.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)   3.5   -120
>
> The last 45 Super Bowls have topped 3,5 just 14 of 45 years (31.1%) Huge value
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER  4.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  4.5   -240
>
> There have been 5 or more made FGs in just 3 of the last 45 Super Bowls (6.6%) EXTREME VALUE!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER 5.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  5.5   -650
>
> THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED  0-45!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> LONGEST MADE FG  47.5 YARDS    UNDER   -130
>
> There has been just 6 Super Bowls with a FG longer than 47 yards.  HUGE VALUE!
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> TOTAL COMBINED MADE FG YARDS (Both teams)  UNDER   122.5   -110
>
> Only 12 of 45 Super Bowls have topped this number (26.6%)  TREMENDOUS VALUE!
> ************************************************************************************************************************************
> BOTH TEAMS WILL RECORD A MADE FG OF 33 OR MORE YARDS?  NO   -110
> This has occurred in just 14 of 45 Super Bowls  (31.1%) HUGE VALUE
> **********************************************************************************************************************************
IMPORTANT NOTE**********

When betting money line odds please remained disciplined!  For example on the prop that is -650, that doesn't mean to bet -650 to win 100 (if your unit size is 100.00). It means bet 100 to win 15.38. Don't get greedy thinking these are guaranteed to win, they are not! What I can guarantee which you can see is these are heavyweight advantaged props, but it is still one game and anything can happen! Whatever your unit size, stick with betting 1 unit. betting is a continuous of scraping a few dollars here and there, and suddenly when you look down, those few dollars start to add up instead of disappearing. STAY DISCIPLINED PLEASE!
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HIGHEST SCORING HALF:    2ND    -155

There has been a long history of Super Bowl games starting slowly. It seems that each team takes a look at how they are being defended early in the game before they open things up. The total points scored in the 1st quarter of 53 Super Bowl games is just 439 total points. that has led to the 2nd half outscoring the first half 1263-1142. The last 21 Super Bowls has seen the 2nd half outscore the 1st half to a record of 16-4-1. Like the odds here. The 2nd half is 8-2-1 in this when the total has been 50+ and 18-6-1 if the total has been 47+. Make the play on the 2nd half being the higher scoring half.
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HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 21 -155

Overall there has been just 16 of 53 Super Bowls that saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter. That is just 30% if all games. The next thing to look at is the early years of the Super Bowl that had a lot of low scoring games, or at least by the posted totals the games were anticipated to be lower scoring. prior to Super Bowl 28 there was just 1 game with a posted total of 50+ so if we start from there and look at games from Super Bowl 28 forward we get a better idea on this. There have since been 10 Super Bowls with a posted total of 50+. just 2 of those saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter between both teams. make the play on the under.
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LOWEST SCORING QUARTER  UNDER   3.5   +140:

There has been 34 times out of the 53 Super Bowls that saw the lowest scoring combined score come in at 3 or fewer points or 64.2% of the time. It isn't just because the games were lower scoring in the early years, as one might expect. The fact is in the last 21 Super Bowls it has occurred 13 times or 62% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 times the total was 50+. Getting plus odds on this shows value.
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TEAM THAT SCORES LAST WINS THE GAME  YES  -240:

This is one of the best values of all. The Yes is 18-2 the last 20 years, 27-5 in the last 32 years and 33-7 the last 40 years. needless to say the odds makers swung and missed on this one.
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PLAY KC/SF  UNDER   54.5   -110





Enjoy the game!

Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over.

The Nevada Wolfpack has been dealt a bad hand for their Bowl game. They lost 3 defensive players to suspension and 2 are DB`s further enhancing the mismatch already in place with a high octane Ohio U. passing attack. A 4th defensive starter will miss the 1st half and a 5th is questionable. While the weather is usually an issue in Boise, ID. in January it will not today as the temperature will be 50 degrees with light winds. Ohio St. duel threat QB Nathan O`Rourke is going to be difficult to handle, and with a lack of depth on defense, the Wolfpack could be wilting in the 4th quarter. Ohio also fits a 25-5 ATS Bowl situation based in part by their poor ATS mark this season. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The story at Indiana is a great one. Indiana has win 8 games for the 1st time since 1993, and the program has never won 9. That looks and sounds great but here is the Hoosiers reality. They did mot neat a single Bowl eligible team all season, and the combined record of their opponents in their 7 wins vs FBS teams is 31-66. They will be up against a lot more than that tonight with an equally motivated Tennessee team that started the season ugly at 1-4 but they proceeded to go 6-1 in the rugged SEC. Tennessee has the edge from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and with both teams motivated, look for the talent to win out. Make the play on Tennessee.

It was a very strong year for the Cincinnati Bearcats, but the ending to this point has been painful. They lost each of their last 2 games to Memphis and should be in an ornery mood for this one. the calling card for Cincinnati is defense and Boston College who ran the ball all season will have to replace A.J. Dillon and his 1,685 yards as he sits out to prepare for the NFL draft. BC is also missing fired coach as Rich Gunnell will take over the play-calling. The BC defense has been poor all season and without their best offensive player will find it tough to keep up vs a very strong Cincinnati defense. make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under.

Matt Rhule has now become an elite coach. he turned a pathetic Temple program around and has now transformed a Baylor program ridden with filth into a power. he has an incredible record getting his team prepared when his team is the weaker one in the fight. His coaching career shows 4 winning seasons and playing as a dog, in those 4 years, his team is 13-10 SU and 20-3 ATS. That becomes 13-7 SU and 19-1 ATS when not a dog of more than 14 points. His team has outscored opponents by 5.6 points per game to an average line of 6. Make the play on Baylor

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a big win vs Utah putting together perhaps their best game of the season. They have 2 losses coming against Auburn and Arizona St. Oregon played very well in the Auburn game and Utah game, their biggest physical tests of the season. They have a sure 1st round pick in the NFL draft at QB in Hebert. The Wisconsin defense recorded 4 shutouts in their first 6 games but took a step back when the competition got stiffer but is still very good. I think Oregon has the better "A" game and a better offense.  teams that come into a Bowl game off winning a Championship game vs a team losing a Championship game tend to excel as they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. The Pac-12 has struggled of late in Bowl games, but in this spot they have excelled:

game type = BG and conference in [P12 , P10] and month = 1 and line >= -6 and line 6 and o:wins < 13 and season > 1982 and oA(points) > 30

SU:19-5-0 (12.96, 79.2%)Teaser Records

ATS:22-2-0 (13.08, 91.7%)

Make the play on Oregon.

It has been a long time since Alabama has not played in the playoffs or BCS Championship. Bowls are a lot about motivation, and it is hard to see this Alabama team bringing a full tank to this game. They will be without 2 elite defenders that have decided to skip and get ready for the NFL draft. Anytime a team faces the Crimson Tide it is motivating all unto itself and I expect a big effort from a very good Michigan team. This Alabama defense is pretty good, but at the same time, it has allowed more points than any Alabama team since 2008 and will be missing their best 2 defenders. Michigan has a great "A" game which was seen in a blowout win vs Notre Dame and I fully expect to see it here. Make the play on Michigan.

There is a lot to unpack for this Bowl game. There are a lot of defections on both sides heading to the NFL that will not play. There are coaching changes deep into both staffs. What there is here is the reputation and pride that has driven Florida St. in Bowl games almost forever. This energy is tough to go against, so I won't, I will embrace it. 

game type = BG and team = FLST and o:WP < 91 and line >= -10

SU:18-4-1 (9.13, 81.8%)Teaser Records

ATS:20-3-0 (8.09, 87.0%)

Florida St. is the King of Bowl domination at 20-3 ATS as ling as they are not a 10 point favorite or more, and their opponent is not elite and has a winning percentage of less than .910. More recently they are 15-1 ATS in this spot, with the only ATS loss coning by 1/2 of a point. Make the play on Florida St.

The Kentucky ground game has devastated their last 3 opponents to the tune of 1,380 yards in their last 3 games. That is an average of 460 yards per contest. It might be a lot tougher in this one as with no threat in the passing game and against one of the best-run stop units in the country in Virginia Tech loading the box, yards aren't going to come easy. The bigger problem is if they get behind they have little to offer in the passing game. Tech has an elite passing game and should be able to move the chains effectively. Kentucky is in an awful Bowl situation which is 7-41 ATS, which is based in part on their recent ATS prowess. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

This game fits a situation I love. When a team gives up from 40 to 64 points in their last game before their Bowl and are from a P5 conference other than the SEC, they are 25-53 ATS (1-12 ATS lately). Make the play on Florida.

This is for a chance to play for the National Championship. If you look at these teams statistically they are pretty much a dead heat. If you go strictly by the eye test LSU has been playing lights out, and Oklahoma isn't scoring at the rate they were earlier in the season. each game provides a unique challenge, and there will be a lot more pressure on LSU here as a2 TD favorite to get it done. Oklahoma has lost key players to suspension and injury, but I don't think that will matter much. If there is a vulnerability to this LSU team it is a very good running QB. They struggled vs Ole Miss allowing 400+ rushing yards, and also against Texas. Alabama has a power running game as well and in those 3 games, the Tigers allowed a total of 123 points or 41ppg. Oklahoma has all of that and more with Jalen Hurts who was responsible for 50 TDs all by himself. Hurts not only passes for 11 yards per attempt, but he has also run for 1,255 yards and 18 TDs. There is speed and game-breakers all over the field. The Sooners also have a kicker that is 17-17 and has range beyond 50 yards. Edwards-Helaire is a big deal. he is the entire running game for the Tigers and he is hobbling some and not 100% and his status is questionable. The Sooners have been big dogs of 10 or more just 3 times since 2013 and have won 2 of them and covered them all including a 14 point win vs Alabama as a -16.5 point favorite. Despite facing top defensive teams in the 3 games, the Sooners scored 112 points or 37.3ppg. Those were much better defenses than LSU, by far. yes, Oklahoma has not scored nearly as well in their last 4 games, but the yards have been there (477 yds per game), against much better defenses than LSU. Just remember this. Since October 26, 1996, Oklahoma is 24-4 SU and 27-1 ATS if they score 30+ points as long as they are not a favorite of -3.5 points or more. The only loss was as a +3 dog in overtime, so they even out-played that line in regulation. Look at that straight-up number. That is with no games as a favorite of more than 3 and includes 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog and 4-1 SU! Of course, there is no guarantee they will score 30 points, certainly loke their chances. Make the play on Oklahoma. 

A lot of could have beens for the Iowa St. Cyclones. this is a much better team than the 7-5 record would have you believe. They lost 1 point games vs Iowa, and Oklahoma, and a 2 point game to Baylor. The Baylor and Oklahoma losses were on the road. Their last 2 Bowl games resulted in a 1 point win and a 2 point loss. This team could easily be 10-2. Notre Dame does not do well in Bowl games as they are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they have had 8 or more wins. Cyclones are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 as a dog. Notre Dame fits a Bowl situation that is 7-41 ATS as well. make the play on Iowa St.

This is the best Memphis team ever at 12-1 and they earned a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face Penn St. They are facing some difficult circumstances however as Mike Norvell left for the Florida St. job and took DC Adam Fuller with him. There is no one left on the staff that has ever called plays before. They will also have a game plan devised by those never having made one on their own. They will face a very quick Penn St. team that has the best defense by far they will have seen all season. Penn St. was down by 4 at Ohio St. before losing by 11 in the Buckeyes closest call of the season. Memphis did not have nearly as challenging of a schedule as they were favored by 9.5 points or more in 9 of their games and did not play as an underdog all season. This is the caliber team they have not seen this year that does well in Bowl games (18-12 ATS). Make the play on Penn St.

Bowl teams that are 6-6 or worse and facing a team better than 6-6 to a line of +2 or more but less than +11 are:

game type = BG and WP 50 and line >= 2 and line

This game fits a horrible situation against USC:

game type = BG and ats streak >= 3 and ats streak < 10 and line > -7 and line < 5 and wins < 11 and month = 12

SU:34-69-0 (-4.79, 33.0%)Teaser Records

ATS:29-74-0 (-5.98, 28.2%)

play against a bowl team on an ats streak of 3-9 games of they are not a -7 point favorite or more or a dog of +5 points or more in December Bowls providing they have fewer than 11 wins.

make the play on Iowa.

Oklahoma St. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will play after sitting out the last 2 games with a thumb injury. make no mistake about motivation here, Mike Gundy comes to Bowl games to win. His team has won 3 straight Bowl games and 7 of 9 averaging 36.8ppg in the process, with all 9 games vs P5 opponents. While Texas A&M had an impossible schedule they failed to beat any team this season with a winning record. Oklahoma St. os 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a dog, and Gundy usually has a trick play or 2 for an added edge. make the play on Oklahoma St.

It has been a long way back for North Carolina who will be playing in a Bowl game for the first time since 2016. They also enter on a 3 game Bowl losing skid. They dusted off their former coach Mack Brown and he has already impacted a program by winning 6 games after the previous 2 years saw just 5 combined wins. His most recent stint in Texas saw him win 9 of his last 12 Bowls and he won his last 2 when at NC. That is a huge difference from Temple 1st year coach Rod Carey who went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in 6 Bowls at N. Illinois. (average loss 25ppg). This game will come down to the NC elite passing offense vs the Temple elite passing defense. the Temple defense really struggled against the 2 elite passing offenses they saw this season in SMU and Central Florida where they gave up 1,279 yards and 108 points. The Temple offense really struggles, and Temple has proven to struggle against elite passing attacks. Temple also facing a situation that is 29-74 ATS that in part plays against a Bowl team ob an extended ATS winning streak. Make the play on North Carolina.

This is a big deal for E. Michigan to play in a Bowl close to home in Detroit. Coach Chris Creighton has completely changed the culture at E. Michigan. His teams have won 25 games over the last 4 years something that took 11 years to do previously. The 4-year record shows 30-17-3 ATS. he will take on a Pittsburgh team that is 7-5 on the season but has been outscored by opponents. Pitt has no offense and averaged 20ppg but does have a solid defense. The main factor here is motivation. Pitt seemed to play the top teams on its schedule tough losing to Penn St. by just 7 and beating Central Florida. here is a pretty glaring stat. The Panthers have not won a game all season by more than 10 points and here they are as nearly a 2 TD favorite vs a motivated team. A December Bowl team that averages fewer than 38.5ppg and is a favorite of -8 or more is 32-57 ATS. There is also a 23-5 ATS situation that plays on certain Bowl teams with a poor ATS record. make the play on E. Michigan.

It is hard to see that Miami, Fla. has any motivational interest in this game. They finished the season a disappointing 6-6 despite the fact that the average line in their games has been as a -10 point favorite and this will be their 10th time as a favorite. They have never been a dog of more than a TD all season as well. A favorable schedule, and unfavorable results. They lost 3 games outright as a favorite of -10, -18, and -18.5, and won another by 5 points as a -29 point favorite. making things worse are a pair of defensive ends sitting out that combined for 9.5 sacks, and a LB that was 2nd on the team in tackles and made 12.5 tackles for a loss. They will also be without WR Jeff Thomas. LA Tech will be playing an hour from home, making the 1 hour trip due west in I-20 and will have the fans behind them. Tech lost to Texas in the opener 45-14 but the yards show 413-454 and J'mar Smith threw for 340 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt. Speaking of Smith, Tech has won 9 straight with him at QB, as 2 losses came while he served a 2 game suspension. A win here will gibe LA Tech 10 wins, a school record. This is the 6th straight Bowl appearance by LA Tech, and they have won the previous 5 and are now 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowls. They fit a Bowl situation that is 55-29 ATS as well. Motivated dog vs an unmotivated favorite here. Make the play on LA Tech.

The Green Bay Packers are 11-3 and are almost a TD underdog in Minnesota. There are a lot of reasons for that. The Packers are being out-gained substantially by opponents on the season, and in their last 6 games has out-gained just Washington, while being out-gained by the LA Chargers, Carolina, SF, NYG, and Chicago. long ago the St. Louis Cardinals have coined the fastest team on turf. Well, Minnesota is the best team on turf. the Vikings on turf as a less than double-digit favorite prior to week 17 are 27-3 SU and 27-3 ATS (14-0 SU/ATS lately). The Packers are not or never have been a good turf team. They are 78-50-2 ATS on the road playing on grass and 53-74-1 ATS on turf. Rodgers is 7-18 ATS in his last 25 as a road dog. The first game saw GB get out to a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the 2nd quarter at home and had to hold on for a 21-16 win. That game saw Minnesota fumble a season-high 5 times (lost 2), but disrupted 3 other drives, and had 1 INT. Cousins 70.5% completions on the season was 14-32, and the Vikings were penalized 100 yards. Minnesota was 0-2 in the red-zone, while GB was 3-3, but did not sniff the red-zone for the last 44 minutes of the game. This is a huge revenge game for Minnesota, and they are in a very favorable matchup. Make the play on Minnesota.

High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

Once again the Boise St. Broncos have had a stellar season at 12-1. perhaps the storyline here is their former coach Chris Peterson will be coaching his last game for Washington. This just doesn't have the look of the typical Boise St. power. They have used 3 QB's this season and the schedule was ranked in the 80s this season. These teams are both pretty even from the line of scrimmage but Washington did so to a much more difficult schedule. The biggest edge may be motivation and special teams here for Washington. Washington is ranked top 15 in special teams, and Peterson has been known for successful trickery in Bowl games and his team will want to send him off with a win. make the play on Washington.

Butch Davis has turned the FIU program around as this will be the Panthers 3rd straight Bowl game and won for the 1st time last year. That win came without QB James Morgan, who has returned and has to be highly motivated to play in a Bowl after missing it last season. This is not only an experienced Bowl team they ranked in the top 20 of experienced teams coming into the season. They needed an impossible win over Miami, Fla. and got the huge upset. Arkansas St. is food offensively but the defense is one of the worst in the country after losing 4 defensive linemen starters to injury over the course of the season. looking at important stat matchups most favor FIU and they are a dog coming into this game, and I believe the wrong team is favored. The history of 6-6 Bowl teams that want to finish with a winning season has been 44-13 ATS in this spot. Play on FIU.

Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under.

The Kent St. Golden Flashes finished the season needing to win their last 3 games to qualify for a Bowl and did so. They are the only Bowl team to have done so. Kent St. took on an aggressive out of conference schedule against Auburn, Arizona St., and Wisconsin. This team has come a long way after going 2-10 each of the last 2 years. The other 9 Kent St. games saw then not lose by more than 7 points in any of them. Utah St. is led by QB Jordan Love who has entered the NFL draft bit will play in the Bowl game. Love had a horrible season as last year he threw 28 TDs to 5 INTs and this year 17 TDs to 16 INTs. A Bowl team that is .500 or less and facing a team that is better than .500 to a line of +2 to +10.5 is 44-13 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Kent St.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been rolling despite one of the worst offenses in the league. They have gotten by with defense and an inordinate amount of forced turnovers as their opponent has coughed the ball up 33 times in 13 games. Looking at the 8 wins the combined record of those opponents is 33-70-1. The combined record of their opponents in their 5 losses is 48-17. The defense allowed 26.4ppg in the losses and 14.8ppg in the wins. Do questions arise as to just how good this defense really is? I would think so. Buffalo is 9-4 on the season, and the eye-test says they are the better team. The Bills simply don't turn the ball over (just 2 turnovers in their last 8 games). Make the play on Buffalo.

If there was ever team in a huge flat spot or breather alert it is the San Francisco 49ers. They are off 3 consecutive games vs Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans and after this one, they face the Rams and Seahawks. Atlanta has an offense that can compete vs a big line, and the Niners believe it or nor are a double-digit favorite for just the 2nd time in 6 years! (did not cover either). The Niners will be without most of their secondary and they are also down 3 defensive linemen. Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 hames and continue to play hard. Certainly could see a competitive game here, and the Falcons also have great backdoor potential. Make the play on Atlanta.

This game fits a situation that os 27-3 ATS:

H and po:points > 34 and ppo:points > 34 and tS(o:points,N=2) > 80 and 49 > total > 35

SU:13-18-0 (-2.84, 41.9%)Teaser Records

ATS:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%)  avg line: 0.5+6:  20-11-0 (64.5%)  -6:  7-22-2 (24.1%)  +10:  27-4-0 (87.1%)  -10:  1-28-2 (3.4%)  

O/U:3-27-1 (-8.94, 10.0%)

Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

The weather is supposed to be rainy here, but that won't impact these teams much as they both will be running the ball on nearly every down. Army has won 3 straight times in this series but things have changed. Ar,y has just 5 wins, 2 of which came vs FCS teams. Their stats vs FBS opponents are horrible. Navy has lost just twice and both losses cane vs ranked teams. there is one flaring stat about this rivalry. When the Army has been +5.5 points or more they are 0-18-1 SU and 7-12 ATS. When they have been posted at fewer than +5.5 points they are 15-5 SU and 9-10-1 ATS. Army has been 0-8 ATS in this series when posted from +7.5 to +14. make the play on Navy.

The Baltimore Ravens are off 3 straight games vs elite teams. They will play their last 2 games vs elite teams. Sandwiched between all of that are the NY Jets. If there was ever a chance for a "breather alert" this is it for the Ravens. A full 60 minute "A" game performance is unlikely. Lamar Jackson is also on the injury report with a quad injury but he will play. I doubt he will be running as often as usual. The Jets run defense is among the best in the league, and without a totally healthy Jackson, they should get enough stops to be able to stay in the game. This has never been a food spot for the Ravens who are now 12-0 SU but kist 1-11 ATS as a favorite of -10.5 or more since 2010. favorites have dominated Thursday Night NFL Football, but not this year and home teams in 2019 have won just 53.5% SU the lowest mark in at least 28 years. Home favorites this year are just 47-73-6 ATS and 3-6 ATS on Thursday. The public has pushed this game into line value for the visitor. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The reason the Bucs have 5 wins is Jameis Winston. The reason the Bucs have 7 losses is Jameis Winston. he has thrown multiple interceptions in half the Bucs games, and that is why this team is on a roller-coaster ride. He threw nome last week, which is ominous because the 3 previous times he did so he threw a combined total of 8 in his next game. he has 20 for the season. he has also been sacked 40 times on the season. he has thrown 78 INTs in 60 career games so this is nothing new. The Colt's blessing comes in disguise. They have lost 6 games this season and 5 have been by 2,3,4,6, and 7 points and last week's loss to Tennessee was because of bad things happening late in the game. The blessing is Adam Vinatieri is injured. He had a great career but has likely kicked in his last game. Vinatieri missed 6 extra points and 8 FGs this season. That means he left 30 points on the field and 5 Indy losses came by a total of 20 points. If the Colys had just an average kicker they would be 9-3 right now. They will have one here. make the play in Indianapolis.

If Georgia didn't throw up a stinker vs South Carolina and came into this game 12-0 we would be looking at a much different line and prediction here by most. Everybody loves a high powered offense, and LSU has certainly been that and more. While the Georgia offense has been less than stellar of late, the LSU defense has allowed 37+ points to 4 teams. That in most cases does not typify a Championship team. They are going to have to score plenty to cover this game vs a Georgia defense that is the best they have seen. The closest thing to it was Auburn and the Bayou Bengals struggled to score just 23 points. Georgia allows just 10.4ppg so piling up the points in this one does not look to be the case by the LSU offense. Georgia can run the ball very well with a bevy of backs, not just Swift, and Fromm has 21 TDs to just 3 INTs on the season. A team in a Championship game that averages better than 47 points a game taking on a team allowing fewer than 21 a game are 3-5 SU to an average line of -12.6. LSU is generating 67% of the bets but the line has not moved. Make the play on Georgia.

The Baylor Bears have had a great season at 11-1. They had this Oklahoma team on the ropes with a 25 point lead and blew it. Everything that could have gone wrong for Oklahoma did. First, it was the only game of the year that WR Ceedee Lamb missed. Lamb is a game-changer as he has caught TD passes in 9 of 11 games, with all 9 coming from outside the red-zone. Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307 in that game, which would be indicative of a 17-20 point win on the road. Oklahoma fumbled 5 times in the game and lost 2 but the 3 that they recovered altered the drives. They punted 1 time in the hame so the only way the offense was stopped was by themselves. QB Jaylen Hurts has been here before, as have most of the OU players. This will be a lot of pressure for Baylor as none of these kids have played in a game of this magnitude before, and the moment could be too big for them. What most don't see is the strides the OU defense has made allowing fewer than 300 yards a game in their last 3. The Sooners are now 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a single-digit favorite and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Championship games as a favorite of fewer than 10 points, the only failed cover was by a single point. make the play on Oklahoma.

Utah certainly deserves to be in the playoff hunt. This is a well balanced very good offense, that also happens to have one of the best defenses in the country. This game is going to be played in the rain and wind, and Utah allows just 56 rushing yards a game, which will be crucial in this contest. Utah has also held all 12 opponents below their season average in total yards. Utah on average has held opponents to 170 fewer yards than their season average. If you look at the 8 common opponents these teams shared, Utah outscored these opponents by 25ppg and outgained them by well over 200 yards per game. Oregon was +16ppg and just +84 yards. Oregon is just 3-12 SU and ATS in their last 15 as a dog. Think there is a greater distance between these teams and Utah will not call off the dogs, as they look for style points. Make the play on Utah.

Probably the hardest thing to conceive is that the Bears will be an underdog for just the 3rd time this season. That speaks volumes to me just how overrated this team is after an impressive record last year. They are off a pair of wins to weak teams and limped across the finish line in each one. Dallas was totally humiliated by Buffalo last week and lost to New England the week before in a rain game. Dallas maybe 6-6 but they have a scoring margin on the season of +6.2. That ranks 3rd in the NFC, less than a half-point from #2 Minnesota. I expect the Cowboys to put up a huge effort here in this one. Dallas is out-gaining opponents by 111 yards per game, while Chicago is being out-gained by 32 yards a game. That is 143 yards per game from the line of scrimmage which translates to about 10 points. Clearly, the Cowboys are the advantaged team here in this one. make the play on Dallas.

This game fits a total situation that is 153-89-8 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 46-6 ATS. The play is on the under.

season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total

The Virginia Tech Hokies have steadily improved all season. The defense has become elite and they are off shutouts in each of their last 2 games. Hokies defense allowed 29.6ppg through their first 7 and 9.5ppg in their last 4. The offense has also taken off scoring 35.4ppg in their last 7. Virginia has a pretty good defense but the offense has held this team back all season against good defensive teams. The defense has also been shaky over the last 4 games. Tech fits a 59-31 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

The NFL decided with the start of the 2006 season they would add a night game to the Thanksgiving Day slate. Since the onset the favorite has been 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in these games. Home dogs have certainly struggled on Thanksgiving at 10-21 ATS and division home dogs have not covered a game since 2003 at 0-6 ATS. Home favorites on Thanksgiving with same season revenge are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. When a game involves a home dog and a total of 43 or more the home dogs are 1-18 SU and 4-15 ATS, including 0-6 ATS to a line of +7 or more (watch line), failing to cover by 25.7ppg. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Green Bay Packers will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. This game has huge playoff implications, as the winner will have a leg up on a potential playoff bye. The Packers will be rested, but at the same time this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4, and the road has not been as good for Aaron Rodgers over his career as playing at Lambeau. Rodgers is just 20-25 SU in his last 45 road games. he is also just 8-17 SU as an underdog. The Packers are 8-2 but surprisingly have been out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 30 yards per game, while the Niners have out-gained opponents by 133 yards per contest. The Niners are allowing just 143 yards in the air per game, and Rodgers is likely to underperform in this one. this game looks closer than it should as a dig down into the stats shows a clear decisive edge to the Niners. The Packers are just 6-10 ATS in their last 16 off their bye vs .500 or better teams. Make the play on San Francisco.

The NY Jets have put together a 2 game winning streak. they have proven that they can beat bad teams in the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. let's not forget this team has lost 5 games this season by 14 or more points. Sam Darnold has 11 TDs to 10 INTs so far, and his last 3 opponents have been terrible teams. Jon Gruden is doing a food job rebuilding this Oakland team and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and a playoff contender. QB Derek Carr is having a strong season with 15 Rds to 5 INTs and a passer rating of 105.2. His career numbers vs the Jets show 3-0 ATS a 121.6 passer rating with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. The Jets average just 248 yards per game and scored 6 vs Philly, 0 vs NE, and 15 vs Jacksonville, as well as just 18 vs Miami in a loss. Make the play on Oakland. 

Wyoming is 6-4 on the season, but recent injuries have hit this team hard. They have lost a lot from an offense that wasn't very good, to begin with. QB Sean Chambers was lost with a knee injury. His replacement Tyler Vander Waal has dropped the passing yards per attempt from 7.6 to 5.7. That is significant, and Vander Waal has just 1 TD pass to 3 INTs. Where it hurts, even more, is in the running game. Chambers was the main cog rinning for 567 yards at 6.3 yards per carry and 10 TDs. Lost as well are running backs, Titus Swen and Trey Smith. The 2 combined for 111-564 at 5.2 per tote. The workload has been on Xazavian Valladay, but despite 869 yards, he has been the least effective at 4.8 per carry. he is also dealing with a knee issue. Colorado St. dealt with the loss of QB Collin Hill, but Patrick O'Brien has been equally effective. Colorado St. is 4-6 but winning the line of scrimmage as they average 69 more yards a game than their opponents, while despite the 6-4 record Wyoming is upside down generating -26 yards a game. Wyoming generally has a home-field advantage with the altitude, but Colorado St. is used to that playing at high altitude themselves. This one goes to the wire, and the points are big. Make the play on Colorado St.

It is hard to believe at 4-6 on the season the LA Chargers have control of their own playoff destiny with 2 games vs KC and 1 with Oakland. That being said, their season is on the line tonight. The Chargers were projected for 10 wins this season, and the 4-6 record points to a lot of value tonight. The Chargers have not lost any game this season by more than 7 points, and no team has scored more than 27 points on them in 10 games. What has killed this team is 5 turnovers in goal-to-goal situations. Expect a full dose of Melvin Gordon tonight. He is rounding into form and will be key vs a KC run defense ranked #31 in the league. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have recorded 9 sacks combined in the last 4 games. The Chargers spent the entire week at the Air Force Academy to get acclimated to the 7000 ft. altitude in Mexico City and the Chargers were favorites in their first 6 games, and are now playing their 5th straight as a dog. Each of the Chiefs last 8 games have all been decided by 7 points or fewer, so this is not last season. This line says KC would be favored by better than a TD at home, and neither teams has been better than a TD vs anyone for most of the season. The Chiefs and Mahomes have been the sexy pick by bettors and over 60% are backing them here driving even more value into the line. make the play on The LA Chargers.

Lamar Jackson is a freak athlete, and each game he gets better and better and has become the most dangerous dual-threat QB perhaps in NFL history. Jackson has run for 702 yards already through 9 games, and barring injury will break Michael Vick's record of 1,039. The Ravens offense is getting better than their 33.3ppg average on the season and scarier still is the defense is starting to come around. The Ravens have allowed 16.5ppg in their last 4. They scored 37 on New England, a team that had better defensive marks than any team in NFL history. The Ravens are now 13-3 in his 16 NFL regular season starts. The Ravens are clock consumers at home where they average an NFL best 36:05 of possession limiting opponents to 23:55. Houston is 6-3 on the season and while their offense has been good all year the defense has been very ordinary. I think they are going to struggle on the road to slow down this emerging freight train. Make the play on Baltimore.

I am once again hedging here as Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is still questionable with a hip injury. The line says the oddsmakers are saying he is playing. If dor some reason he does not this will go to -6.5 or -7. I like the line even with Stafford playing if he is out we get a grand slam! The Cowboys have the most talented roster in the league on both sides of the ball yet here they are at 5-4, and making the playoffs is still in question. Detroit is an average team that throws the ball a bit better than average, but with Stafford's health in question, if he plays may be injured enough to make them average. Dallas out-gains opponents by 114 yards per game and despite New England coming up next this won't be a look ahead, especially off a loss, and I think the alarm will have sounded now. If they want to make the playoffs this has to be a win. Dallas is 4-1 ATS this year vs teams that are .500 or less and 0-3 ATS vs winning ones. They win vs the .500 or less teams by 15ppg on average. Make the play on Dallas.

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

It appears that UCLA is surging after starting the season 1-5 as the Bruins have won 3 straight games. I'm not in that camp. Looking at their last 6 opponents all in the P-12 they have collectively allowed around 30ppg. Utah is on a completely different level defensively. They allow 246 yards a game on the season and just 12.2ppg. The offense is not too shabby either at 446 yards per game. Overall the Utes are out-gaining opponents by 200 yards a contest. This game will be played in altitude which is another advantage for the Utes. This game also fits a situation that is 87-34 ATS. Make the play on Utah.

The Georgia St. Panthers have taken a big blow as QB Dan Ellington has been declared out with a knee injury vs Appalachian St. Ellington's 18 TDs to just 4 INTs will be missed as he will be replaced by QB Cornelious Brown. Brown is just 8-23 on the season for 3.5 yards per attempt with 0 TDs and 1 INT. he will be over-matched by a strong Appalachian St. defense. Moreover, the pretty good Georgia St. running game, featured the running ability of Ellington as well. The lack of a threat in the passing game is going to allow Appalachian St. to load up the box and stop the running game cold. The Panthers defense is awful so Appalachian St. should score often here, and should win this one big! Make the play on Appalachian St.

The Akron Zips have certainly lived up to their name this season at 0-9 SU and ATS. They have not found the end-zone in 4 straight games. The 4 games saw them going against poor defenses in 3 of them that stopped them cold and while E. Michigan isn't a food defensive team, they are considerably better than the 3 poor defenses that kept the Zips from crossing the goal line. This isn't as good of an EMU team as we have seen the past few years, but they are good enough, and at 4-5 on the season this is a mandatory win if they seek Nowl eligibility once again. Make the play on E. Michigan.

This game fits my strongest NFL totals situation (at least by winning percentage).This game fits a 46-5 ATS situation and the play is on the under.

This one will make you cringe I'm sure. The Buffalo Bills are off to a 6-2 start but when you look at their 2nd easiest NFL schedule it doesn't say much. They have 6 wins vs a schedule of teams that are 9-42 on the season. I know Cleveland is 2-6 and has looked awful, but 2 wins is better than the average team that Buffalo beats, think about that one. The Browns will get another playmaker back as Kareem Hunt has served his 8 game suspension and he is certainly capable of being an impact player. This game has "stink" written all over it. The public is buying in high with Buffalo, no one can believe Cleveland is favored. I've been to this rodeo before, not taking the bait! It is tare for a 2-6 team to be favored over 6-2 team, however, when it occurs, BEWARE! A team with a winning percentage of less than .375 that is favored over a team that is greater than .700 from week 8 on (legitimizing the records), are 13-2 ATS. If the line is from -1.5 and up they are 12-1 SU and ATS. Hold your nose and make the play on Cleveland.

I just have too much stuff for this game to pass it up. I have a 102-44 ATS situation on Cincinnati as well as a big dog off a bye situation that is 21-1 ATS and a negative letdown situation against Baltimore that is 2-22 ATS. This is the definition of an ugly pick. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Boise St. will host 6-2 Wyoming in a crucial Mountain West tilt. Wyoming has really battled the injury bug, and none hurt more than losing QB Sean Chambers last week for the season. Chambers was not an accurate passer, but an effective one. Where he will be missed the most is the running game as he rushed for 567 yards on 90 carries. The Cowboys will also be without RB Trey Smith (44-227), and RB Titus Swen (67-337). That is 57% of the carries, and Chambers's running threat is what drove the running game as Wyoming is a weak passing team. Chambers will be replaced by Tyler Vander Waal who played a lot last year but completed just 48% of his passes 5 TDs and 4 INTs. he also was -63 yards rushing, so the rushing yards are going to be tough to come by as Boise St. puts 8-9 in the box and dares them to throw. Vander Waal is just 4-16 this season. Boise St. freshman QB Hank Bachmeier has been solid, throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. The weak part of the Wyoming defense is against the pass. Additionally, Wyoming will be missing 2 starting tackles from the offensive line. Hard to see Wyoming scoring much at all here. Make the play on Boise St.

Saturday November 9th, 2019

LA-Lafayette is probably better than their 6-2 record. They have lost only to Miss St., and Appalachian St. They are above average on both sides of the ball, and net out at +1.1 yard per play vs opponents. Coastal Carolina has had stat-boosting games vs UMass and Norfolk St. where they piled up close to 1200 yards in the 2 games. Otherwise, this team is left with numbers suggesting they are well below average. Louisiana is a good road team as they are 45-25 ATS in road conference games in their last 70 including 18-5 ATS if they gained 475+ yards in their previous game. Tougher schedule, much better team. Make the play on Louisiana.

The Dallas Cowboys certainly have had their way vs the NY Giants. QB Dak Prescott in particular who is 69-101 for 1,053 yards 9 TDs and 0 INTs in his last 3. Giants QB Daniel Jones has had some moments but is still a work in progress with an 84.4 passer rating 10 TDs and 7 INTs on the season. Dallas come in off of their bye, and this situation fits tonight:

rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and F

SU: 28-0-0 (12.21, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 27-0-1 (7.82, 100.0%)

as well as this MNF example:

p:W and MNF and rest=14 and F and date>20031006

SU: 15-0-0 (18.07, 100.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 13-1-1 (11.60, 92.9%) avg line: -6.5

Also MNF road favorites are 27-16 ATS last 43 from -5.5 to -10.5.

Make the play on Dallas.