Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

When it comes to playing against the Big-10 it has been 90 years since the Auburn Tigers have faced a Big-10 team. This should be a big game as both teams come in ranked. The deck is certainly stacked for Penn St. First, it will be ESPN's Game Day. If that isn't enough, it is the annual white-out game where 100,000+ fans all dress in white. Next, this will be a very hostile crowd that some Auburn players have yet to see because covid limited fans a year ago. Auburn has a young team with just 9 starters returning. Bo Nix is still an enigma to me. He has dominated at home over his career where he has thrown 22 TD's to just 3 INT's. The road has been dramatically different where he has thrown 10 TD's and 10 INT's. He is going to have to be better than that. Auburn has generated 9.9 yards per play which looks elite, until you see it was against 2 teams that combine to allow 9.1. Penn St. went from a brutal 0-5 start last year to have now gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS. Auburn has beaten 2 real cream puffs at home, this is going into the deep end of the pool in more ways than one, and I don't think this young team is ready to handle it. Make the play on Penn St.

Dave Clawson has silently done an incredible job at Wake Forest. He has led a team that has the worst ll-time record of any P5 program to 5 straight bowls. The biggest problem he has had is recruiting enough depth. His teams over the 5 Bowl years and this year so far are 27-13 prior to November 3rd, but just 6-12 in the regular season after that. His team will benefit from the free year all players got due to covid-19, as he will return 9 5th year seniors and 19 starters in all. He has led Wake Forest to the 3 best scoring offenses in school history from 2017-19, and last year even better at 36 points per game. Wake has played 2 easy games, but this one is going to let the cat out of the bag. Wake is a team that I have as the most underrated in the country coming in. If they can stay healthy, they are going to have a big season, and right now they have 0 players on the injury list. I love Mike Norvell, but he has his hands full. Florida St. reminds me of Nebraska. They dominated for many years, the super coach leaves and the program never returns to what it was. Florida St. is heading down the same path. The Seminoles were 304-78 from 1987-2016 with 21 seasons of 10 wins or more. They have been 21-28 since. Since the start of the 2017 season they are 12-20 in the ACC and just 10-20-2 ATS. Since the start of the 2018 season they are 2-12 on the road with the average loss coming by 20.1 points per game. How the mighty has fallen. Last week they lost 20-17 to Jacksonville St. at home. Starting QB Travis Jordan is listed as available, and McKenzie Milton is a great story but he has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt so far, and is a long way from the QB he was before his really bad injury while at Central Florida. Milton had not played since 2018. Wake is the superior team here, well motivated, deeply experienced, and a competent QB with some great wide receivers, and all 11 offensive starters back and healthy. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Notre Dame has started 2-0, but it is a very soft 2-0. They were strongly challenged by both Florida St. and Toledo. Yes, they are 2-0 but they don't look anything like they have in recent years. There are a lot of holes. This team has ruled the line of scrimmage over the last 3-4 years, but have been out-rushed 198-99 by two opponents I would rate below Purdue. Worse than that through 2 games Notre Dame has allowed 4 plays of 60+ yards already under new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. Here is the scary part of that. Under former defensive coordinator Clark Lea they allowed fewer than that over the last 3 years combined! The other surprising stat is the Notre Dame offensive front has already allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Purdue Coach Brohm is 15-5 ATS as a road dog since coming to Purdue. He has 18 starters returning and have looked the part early. A road dog of 3.5-10 points in a non-conference game off a non-conference game is 51-20 ATS the last 5 years. I think Purdue is within a score of this Notre Dame team that has yet to earn their national ranking this year. This one is close. Make the play on Purdue.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.

I believe Matt Ryan could be in for a big season. The Falcons have brought in Arthur Smith as head coach, and if you look what happened to Ryan Tannehill under Smith his numbers skyrocketed. Ryan has been stuck with poor offensive approaches the last 4 years, and I think that is going to change this season. The Eagles may be sliding as their typical strong defense is seeing their best players past the age now where historically there is a decline. The offense is lacking play makers and Jalen Hurts does not look like the answer at QB with the supporting cast he has on offense. The NFL is a QB dominated league and Atlanta at home with a coach that will allow his skill to take over, against Jalen Hurts who saw his Philly team go 1-4 in his 5 starts is a mismatch. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

Hard to believe what we saw fron North Carolina last week. Their electric offense, behind a Heisman caliber QB in Sam Howell scored 10 points vs Virginia Tech. Lane Stadium was electric, and the Heels just were not ready to match the Hokies energy and were beaten. Did Sam Howell lose a Heisman opportunity in just 1 week? Certainly possible as he threw 3 INT's in the loss. Carolina out-gained Virginia Tech 354-296, but made too many mistakes. Lost in this game is the Carolina defense which limited Virginia Tech to 296 yards. Mack Brown has everyone back on defense and it showed. Georgia St. returns everyone on offense but Army limited them to 10 points and just 177 total yards. The Panthers did a good job against the Army rushing attack, but the Carolina offense is just the opposite and they have too much speed here and should be playing with an edge after their horrible performance on the road. It will be redemption Saturday in Chapel Hill. I like North Carolina in a blowout.

Let's get these things out of the way to start. Iowa St. has not beaten Iowa by more than 3 points in the last 14 years. Iowa has also won the last 5. This Cyhawk rivalry goes back to the 1800s. Iowa destroyed Indiana in its opener while Iowa St. had to hold on for a tough win vs an FCS opponent in Northern Iowa. Now for the good stuff. Iowa St. was a top 10 team a year ago, and brings back 21 starters from that team. They have a seasoned NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy, an All-American capable RB in Breece Hall, and an NFL TE in Charlie Kolar. The defense has allowed a total of 16 2nd half points in its last 16 games. Needless to say this was a top 10 team last year, and this is a potential playoff team this year. Iowa had 2 pick-6's against Indiana which was the game. They will be an under dog for the first time in this series in the last 21 years. Iowa isn't as good as they looked vs Indiana, and Iowa St. wasn't as bad as they looked vs Northern Iowa. Iowa has not been good in a dog role lately where they have 1 upset in their last 9 games as a road dog, and are just 2-7 ATS in those games. This is the best Iowa St. team ever and the summer line was Iowa St. -8, but the perception created in each team's opener has moved this line without real justification. The real Iowa St. takes the field this week at home where they are the much better and deeper team. Make the play on Iowa St.

California had some high expectations last year, and covid-19 derailed their season. The Bears played just 4 games and went a disheartening 1-3. They were missing a lot of key players in 2 of the games, and completely self-destructed in 2 others.They did win their finale vs Oregon 21-17 who was a ranked team at the time.  The Bears lost their opener on the road vs a very good Nevada team 22-17. The game was played pretty even, and while the defense did its part, the offense did not click as expected, and I believe they are better than what they showed. The defense has been a staple for this team in recent years, and this year will be no exception. The area that was horrible last year was special teams, and there is no where to go but up, and if they fix the problem, they will automatically be better. The Bears could be a top 30-40 team this year and good enough to meet some of the expectations. TCU finished strong last year but had to withdraw from a Bowl bid because of covid-19. The TCU program has always been very good but the last 3 years have not been of the same caliber. The Frogs are just 18-17. The offense should be good but they lost 3 defensive players to the NFL, and their not going to be able to get the same level this year. This game comes down to Cal's ability to limit the TCU offense and they have been a proven commodity in that arena. They also have a better offense than they showed in game 1, and are catching the TCU defense early, before the new players grasp the system. Think this is a single digit game. These are the games Justin Wilcox has seen his team excel in. Wilcox has led his team to a 19-8 ATS record as a dog with 12 outright wins! Those 12 outright wins has seen his team win 7 of the 12 as a +7 or more dog. Make the play on California.

Notre Dame does not have the depth it has had over the past few seasons. We saw that impact last week as the defense was dog tired and the Irish defense looked helpless in stopping the Florida St. offense in the 2nd half. Florida St. piled up the rushing yards generating 264. Transfer QB Jack Coan looked very comfortable racking up 366 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Noles as he has a lot of weapons unlike he has had before. They will be coming off a short week which certainly could leave the defense vulnerable again vs a Toledo team that is returning 21 players and should contend for the MAC Title. Last season Toledo put up 35 points per game and certainly could up that total this season. The Rockets have it all covered on offense and should pump enough points into this game limit the work the Notre Dame offense has to generate to push this one over the top. Notre Dame could not stop Florida St. and Toledo is going to get their share here against an Irish defense which is good but not not like what we have seen the past couple of seasons. Make the play on the over.

If you happened to get a glimpse of Tulsa last week, it had to make you cringe. The Golden Hurricanes had an easy game vs FCS UC Davis and they were posted as a 25 point favorite. One problem. They did not even score 25 points they finished with 17 and had trouble all game getting anything going. Tulsa QB David Brin put a lot of expectations on the QB with a 4th quarter come from behind win vs Tulane last year. That isn't what we saw in week 1. Oklahoma St. was a 38 point favorite vs FCS Missouri St. and barely pulled out a 23-16 win. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch and is in quarantine regarding covid-19. He is expected to miss again. The Cowboys generated just 5.2 yards per play against an FCS team and turned the ball over 3 times. Oklahoma St. faced Tulsa last season and won a very low scoring game 16-7. I don't see a whole lot of difference here in this one. Make the play on the under.

Texas St. has not been in the FBS that long. They had some early success, but the last 6 years has seen this program go 15-57 SU, and they have not logged more than 3 wins in any season over the last 6 years. Dave Aranda`s first year as Baylor head coach was a 2-7 disaster. He had to install a new system on both sides of the ball, but covid took away spring practice. This on the heels of a Conference Championship game and Sugar Bowl appearance. The offense is full of weapons, and the defense has 22 players returning with ample experience. The special teams are among the best in the nation and I would not be surprised to spring one vs Texas St. Baylor will be a top 40-50 team, but if a QB emerges and surprises they will be a top 25 team. Last year makes them look light years from being competitive, but that is far from the case. Texas St. over the last 6 years has faced 4 P-5 Conference teams and has lost on average by 34 points per game and none closer than 28. I think Baylor comes away with a comfortable win and cover. Make the play on Baylor.

The Indiana Hoosiers finished 6-2 a year ago and for the first time they beat Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. That has set high expectations for this season, especially with QB Michael Penix returning off a torn ACL. Penix is a very solid QB, but in 3 years at Indiana his season has ended prematurely with leg or shoulder surgery. Week 1 vs a very strong defense is going to test him immediately and I'm not sure Indiana is going to put him in a lot of running spots, which could limit his overall effectiveness. One big question for Indiana is the offensive line. The Hoosiers ran for just 3.3 yards a carry last year, and a one-dimensional attack is not going to beat a strong and experienced Iowa defense. Iowa seems to be in the hunt every season. They opened 0-2 and ran the table to finish 6-2. Iowa has a commanding QB and one of the top RB's in the league that can close games in Tyler Goodson. Iowa is really tough at home, especially when they need to be, in a competitive situation. Iowa is 15-1 SU in their last 16 at home as a favorite of less than -6. I like Iowa in this one.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were certainly not good last season with a 3-6 finish, but that doesn`t tell the story. Rutgers brought back Greg Schiano who built the program previously, and he already had Rutgers competing in year one. Rutgers went from on average losing by 33 points per game to losing by 5 points per game last year. He has his system in place and 20 starters back to execute it. Rutgers beat Michigan St. by 11 their first win over the Spartans since 1994, and first road win there since 1991. Temple won just 1 game a year ago, and the rise of Temple was halted after 6 straight seasons of finishing .500 or better. They lost their last 4 by a combined score of 42-151, and a 35 point loss to Tulane and a 25 point loss to ECU were very telling how far away this team is. Rutgers thrived behind Schiano the first time around and they are poised to do it again. Make the play on Rutgers

This will be year 4 for Chip Kelley at UCLA. Everyone expected to see an Oregon-type offense out of the Bruin's but that level has not manifested itself to date. Things are about to change. The Bruins have 10 players back on offense and the most important is QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Robinson is healthy after missing 2.5 of the Bruin's covid shortened season last year that saw them play just 6 times.  This is a loaded offense being run by an above-average QB, that has also run for 8.6 yards per carry last year. The Bruins are poised to topple the respectable 465 yards per game they generated a year ago with 10 starters returning. The defense was much better than the 30.7 points per game they allowed and has 10 starters back and will benefit from a better offense, and experience. Hawaii has a suspect QB in Chevan Cordiero. He isn't special, but adequate, and he will have to be special to beat UCLA. The Warrior's have 10 defenders back and should be better, but I think the UCLA offense is going to improve more than the Hawaii defense, and this game sets up as one of those Chip Kelley pile it on blowouts. Make the play on UCLA.

It has been 638 days since the UConn Huskies have played a game. This is a school that has been horrible for a decade running. This is coach Randy Edsal's second go around at the University, and things have not gone well. Edsal is 6-30 upon his return, and just 3-30 against FBS competition. The Huskies have a roster that has 102 players 93 of them have 3 years of eligibility remaining. They have 44 true freshmen and 14 red shirt freshmen, which represents about 57% of the roster. There are just 8 seniors or red shirt seniors on the entire roster. Moreover, of the 70 players that saw the field in 2019 (their last actual game), 44 are no longer here. Complicating inexperience is the depth chart. The weather in Fresno will be very hot. The expected high temperature is 100-105. Fresno St. has 20 starters back. QB Jake Haener threw for 336ypg a year ago, and has 3 WR's that could all be a #1. Additionally they have a RB that has broken most school records already with a full year more to add to it. UConn has a very inexperienced offensive line, a guess at who starts at QB, and Fresno finished last season 3rd in the country with 4.16 sacks a game with everyone returning. UConn has had so many lopsided games, and this sure looks like another one. Make the play on Fresno St.

Saturday August 28th, 2021

There is a lot to unpack for this game. We have two QBs that may in the end go down to the top 2 all-time. I think for the KC offense it comes down to how much will it matter that their offensive line is down both of their starting tackles? I think for Tampa Bay it will come down to how Brady handles the blitz. The Bucs allowed 27 points in the 1st meeting, which is a win against this KC offense. The points however didn't tell the story. Tyreke Hill owned the game. Kansas City was up 17-0 early and was on their way to making it 24-0 when Mahomes suffered a strip-sack inside the 15. Hill had 202 receiving yards in the first quarter. Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the game. The 27 points were an anomaly, it could just as easily have been 45. Tampa Bay will get destroyed if they depend on the blitz to get pressure. They learned that lesson early and often in game 1. They blitzed 12 times in that game, 11 in their first half. They also have to be more relaxed on the line. Tampa Bay jumped offsides 4 times in the game, which is a Mahomes specialty, as he drew 26 flags this season, tops in the league, while Tampa Bay jumped 24 times on defense ranked second-worst in the league. Trying to play man defense is suicide against Mahomes, as they ran a man defense for 8 plays, and Mahomes was 6-8 for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The problem is, Travis Kelce is a zone destroyer and a blitz destroyer. He was targeted just 8 times in that game but had 8 catches. When KC lines up with 3 receivers on one side, and Kelcey alone on the other side, Mahomes keys on White. If White blitzes, the back comes out to Kelce's side, and it is 2 on 1 with Kelce carving free space in the middle. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against opponents TEs, and this guy is the best of them all. If KC goes 12 personnel with 2 TE's Mahomes averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and the TB defense on the season allows 8.1. The TB defense ranks 26th on first down, 16th on 2nd, 6th on 3rd, and 1st on 4th. They get better by the down. TB is going to get chances to score. KC allowed 954 yards to TEs this season. Gronk and Cameron Brate were targeted often and with success in the first meeting. Gronk had his best game of the year, and Brate had 4 grabs as well. TB likes to throw downfield and had 67 passing plays of 20+ yards, while the KC pass defense allowed 54. The TB offense is peaking right now. They ranked 11th in week's 1-9 but have since ranked #2. (ahead of KC). While Mahomes is good at drawing flags at the line of scrimmage, Brady and the Buc's receivers are good at drawing flags for DPI. The Bucs got 23 of those, an all-time record. Those 23 plays supplied 395 more yards of hidden offense. KC was flagged 15 times for defensive pass interference, and additionally, their defensive backs rank #30 in broken tackles allowed. I can see where two offenses that each have a plethora of star-studded weapons can find ways to score quickly, as each defense has vulnerabilities that each opponent has the weapons to expose. My play in this game is on OVER the total.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 1 game away from defending their Super Bowl win from a year ago. The Buffalo Bills after losing 4 straight Super Bowls have a chance for redemption with a win. There is a very hidden stat in the Chiefs season log which may explain why they are still winning, but by scant margins. The Bills also have some hidden numbers, that show why their defense is vastly underrated. The Kansas City Chiefs through week 6 had the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Since week 7 those numbers have substantially declined, and their ranking from that point on is 19th. The Bills defense ranked 30th through 6 weeks, but has ranked 6th since week 7. The Chiefs like to throw on 1st down, but th Bills rank #1 on first down pass defense, but #29 on first down running plays. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs alter their game plan. The Bills also have an advantage when they line up in 10 personnel (4 wide receivers), where they average 7 yards per play. Their game against KC saw them run 33 plays out of 11 personnel that averaged just 2.8 yards per play. They ran 18 plays out of 11 personnel and gained 7.8 yards per play. Look for a heavy dose of 4 receiver sets for the Bills. Buffalo also played their week 6 game against KC without RG Jon Feliciano, and they will be better this time with him. KC ranks 31st defending running backs when they blitz, so look for Allen to get the ball out quickly in dump offs to the backs. Buffalo has been better with LB Matt Milano back, and I see some edges here for the Bills tht were liabilities in week 6. Overall, the Bills since week 7 have been the better team, and I look for them to get the win against the Chiefs. There is also a wait and see regarding Pat Mahomes toe. He may not be as willing or able to run, and may be less mobile in the pocket.  Make the play on Buffalo.

The Green Bay Packers made the LA Rams defense look bad on their way to the NFC Conference Championship Game. Looking at that game one would think Green Bay will roll all over the Tampa defense, but I don't think so. Tampa Bay presents a different set of problems for Green Bay. The Packers like to get Aaron Jones outside runs in space, but the Bucs have White and David, as the fastest linebacker tandem in th NFL, and I don't see success there. The Packers could utilize AJ Dillon to take it up the middle, and over-power the 2 linebackers who are rather small, with white at 237 and David just 233. Dillon is generating 3.2 yards after contact, but how much are they willing to use him, and how healthy is he, as he suffered a quad injury last game. It will come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay get on Rodgers with just a 4 man rush? Rodgers has regressed tremendously as he has aged when a 4 man rush gets pressure, averaging a career low 3.3 yards per pass attempt. That is what happened in the first meeting, it is what happened vs Carolina. Rodgers was sacked 4 times in each game. Meanwhile Tom Brady will likely have plenty of time to throw. Green By is a bottom 10 team in getting pressure. The Packers have an answer in the secondary with Jaire Alexander who ranks in the top 10 defending #1 receivers. The issue is all the others who rank in the bottom 10 defending the rest of the receivers and running backs. The Rams did not have the offense to exploit than, the Bucs do. Tampa Bay has been snapping the ball a out more out of 12 personnel (2 tight ends). That is troubling for the run defense by the Packers who love playing dime defense, and in some cases 6 DB's. That highly exposes the Packers defense, and this is not a good match up for the Packer defense. That is more concerning with the fact that Kingsley Keke has been ruled out for Green Bay. It will all come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay apply with a 4 man rush, and with David Bakhtiari out for the Packers, this may be the first defensive front that can make that hurt. I like Tampa Bay in this one.

The Tampa Bay Bucs started the season with a lot of new faces. The biggest addition was Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs offense struggled early, as covid shut down training camps, and practice time in a new system just wasn`t there. Brady looked old, could not complete the dep pass, and he looked like a declining GOAT. game one was an immediate test, and the Saints beat them 34-23. Brady threw for 6.6 yards per attempt, 2 INTs, and was under a lot of pressure, and was picked off twice. It took a 90 yard drive late in the 4th to make the score look a bit more respectable. The Bucs would go on to win 6 of their next 7 with the only loss a 1 point heartbreaker vs the Bears. They sure seemed poised to get revenge at home 2 months later vs the Saints. It got worse. They lost 38-3 and Brady threw 3 INTs was dropped 3 more times, and was under siege the entire game. Drew Brees had another big game finishing with a 135.2 passer rating, to Brady`s 40.4. The Bucs outside of their best game of the year vs the Packers would go on to go 0-5 vs playoff teams allowing nearly 30ppg. The bottom line here is the Saints is their worse possible matchup. Here is the skinny on Brady. The 2017 season saw him with the smallest gap when under pressure vs no pressure, as pressure made no difference. Since then those numbers have climbed off the chart. This year those numbers have completely tanked as he now has the 4th largest gap throwing with pressure vs no-pressure. Brady generates 8.1 yards per attempt when not under pressure to 5.6 yards per attempt with pressure. This plays right into the Saints strength as they allow 6.5 yards per attempt when they have 4 pass rushers, and 5.2 yards per attempt when the rush 5 or more. Buc`s LT Donovan Smith had 6 blown pass blocks in the 2 games vs New Orleans this year, Alex Cappa fractured his ankle last week and will turn over his starting job to an untested Aaron Stinnie. Brady since the bye has been much better throwing the deep ball at 9.7 yrds per attempt, but that was against Detroit, Atlanta, and all teams the worst at getting pressure. There are some other reasons I like the matchup here, but clearly, what was stated above exposes the biggest advantage on the field in today`s game. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

I have been watching the weather forecast in Buffalo, and it appears that the potential for high winds will not occur until well after this game. Weather should not play a significant role in this game other than cold and perhaps some snow showers. There is something to learn about how the Ravens defended the Bills in their 2019 meeting. They blitzed Josh Allen on every one of the Bills first 9 plays, and 11 of the first 12. The Ravens are the top blitzing team in the NFL at 45.1% of all opponent snaps. Maybe that work then, but it will be ill advised now. Allen has made perhaps the biggest year-over-year improvement of any NFL QB in history. The Ravens defensive coordinator promised in his press conference, there will be pressure, that's what they do. The 2019 game saw them bring pressure on 31 snaps, sacked Allen 6 times, and forced him to fumble. The word on Allen is to blitz him, and the Ravens send a lot of CB blitzes, and Allen has faced more of those than any QB in the league. Big problem, that doesn't work anymore. Allen ranked 21st in the league to such blitzes a year ago, this year he ranks number 2 behind only Patrick Mahommes. Allen has thrown just 2 of his 10 INTs against the blitz this season. The Bills love to go deep and expect some success in doing so. Buffalo isn't going to run the ball, and the pass heavy offense would be wise to keep the ball in the air the entire game. Tennessee did a good job keeping Baltimore in 2nd and long situations, and Baltimore ranks 25th in those situations. They managed just 20 points against a highly suspect Tennessee defense. The Buffalo defense has been above average since week 10, and the league leading missed tackles on the season, was reduced to just 1 against Tennessee, and they will have to maintain that in this contest. The Bills also should limit the snaps of playing man coverage. This is where Jackson often turns a dead play into a chunk rushing opportunity, and no QB cashes in better than Jackson. This game to me comes down to which offense is more effective, the run heavy offense of the Ravens, vs the pass happy offense of the Bills. The Bills were projected to win 9 games this season, and they won 13. The reason is quite simple, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs. It is hard in this era of the NFL to take a run heavy offense vs a pass heavy one. I am playing the Bills in this one.

This game is going to be determined by the top rated LA Rams defense vs the top rated Green Bay Packer offense. There are a few things of note here. I will start with the biggest match up in the game which will be Jalen Ramsey vs Devonte Adams. Adams averaged 98.1 yards per game while Ramsey allowed just 19.3 yards per game. Adams had 18 TD catches and Ramsey allowed just 3. The total yards of those 3 TDs was 7 combined. That gave the Rams defense a very off the charts 4.7 yards allowed to opponent throws to the right side. Here is what isn't spoken about. The Rams ranked 18th in throws to the left, and 21st in throws over the middle. The Rams were the best in the league stuffing the run on 1st down, but were 30th against the pass on 1st down. They were 1st against the pass on 2nd down. The Rams defense is also 31st on third and short. The Rams have faced very few top offenses this season. Their schedule draw saw them play 8 games vs the worst 2 conferences in football the NFC East, and the AFC East. The top 2 offenses they faced in Tampa Bay and Buffalo they allowed an average of 29.5ppg. Green Bay is better. Everyone says defense wins championships. That simply is not the case in the NFL. The Packer defense has been steadily improving, and over its last 5 games they have allowed 17.2ppg. The Rams offense has steadily declined, and with Cooper Kupp questionable, and a dinged up WB that has had a bad year when healthy, and a stud on defense in Aaron Donald that is not 100%, I don't see where they are turning.Let's suppose Adams is taken out of the game by Ramsey. The Packer offense played 2 games without Adams as well, and scored 37 on a big New Orleans defense, and Rodgers QB rating in the 2 games was higher than his season average. The Packers led every game this season by 7 points or more, and allowed 72 points in the 4th quarter in 6 games they led by 18 or more with 10 minutes or less remaining. Take that out of the equation and they allowed the same defensive point average as the Rams. I don't think this game is going to be close. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS to the under and is 21-8 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bears have snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 on the season. While it appeared that RB Montgomery, and QB Trubisky have appeared to ignite a stale and subpar offense, the improvements are smoke and mirrors. The Bears since week 7 are 3-7. The wins came against Jacksonville, Houston, and Minnesota, with a loss to Detroit. The offense averaged 35 points in those games, but those defenses are all the worst in the league. They have bookended those games with losses to Green Bay, trailing 35-10 going into the 4th in one game and scoring 16 in the other, and the Green Bay defense is in the middle of the pack. Their 5-1 start to the season included wins vs Carolina, Atlanta, the Giants, and the Lions. Their schedule got them to 8 wins, nothing they have done has. New Orleans will have Brees, Thomas, and Kamara all as part of the offense for the first time since week 10. The Bears biggest advantage on offense would have been Mooney, but he is out, and the defense will be missing Roquan Smith. The Bears are becoming injured, the Saints healthy. Playoff home favorites of 10 or more points are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS, including 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2008, winning by 16ppg. This game has blowout written all over it. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Baltimore Ravens are no secret on offense. They are going to run the ball. Lamar Jackson will take advantage of man defense which forces opponents to play zone most of the time. The offense was not very good early on, but from week 11 on they have been back to elite form. So you can decide if it is a product of Jackson getting healthy and back in form, or the product of the poor defenses they have faced. The defenses all ranked 21st or worse. Unfortunately for the Titans, they are one of those poor defenses. The Titans did win in overtime earlier in the season vs the Ravens, but it was the red-zone inefficiencies that stopped the Ravens. Baltimore was stopped on 3 red-zone drives, and punted just 3 times. Those punts were on the opener, just prior to the half after a penalty with :41 seconds left, and a 4th and 5. The passing game is also starting to come around. Marquise Brown had dropped 6 balls, and broken just 4 tackles all season. He created just 7 first downs on 32 deep targets all season. The last 5 weeks he has caught 3 deep TDs and 2 deep first downs on 6 attempts.The Titans have no pass rush, as they have just 19 sacks, and generate pressure the second least in the entire NFL. The Tennessee offense saw Derrick Henry gouge Houston and Jacksonville for 761 yards, so his numbers otherwise don't jump off the page. The Titans generate a lot of their offense off play action, where they have generated 1,541 yards on 174 plays. That has been a Ravens strength as they are 4th best in the league allowing 6.5 yards per attempt vs play action. So that is strength on strength. The biggest edge in this game is the Baltimore offense vs the Tennessee defense. The Ravens travel well at 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31, and my numbers say the Ravens should be a small favorite here. Make the play on Baltimore.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks have 107 wins together since Wilson was drafted in 2012. That is 2nd to just the Patriots over the time period. They have had one nemesis, the LA Rams. The Rams have won 10 of the 18 meetings between these teams, the only team that has faced the Seahawks more than twice to have a winning record against them. The 18 meetings have seen 12 decided by a TD or less. While McVay seems to be holding out on Goff's status, he has practiced all week without any impact. I would think he goes for the Rams, but if you think he is a deal breaker consider the Rams beat Seattle and Wilson before with Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, and Kellen Clemens at QB. If the Rams win this game, it will be on defense. Expect McVay to pull off a few gadgets here as the Ram's offense has utilized tight ends and wide receivers 32 times this season for a pair of TDs. The Rams are 2nd in the league in adjusted sack rate. There is also a strong chance that LT Andrew Whitworth is back this week. The Rams defense rank 1st in a lot of categories and the Seattle offense has really struggled over the 2nd half of the season. Seattle has become a run oriented team. They passed 63% of the time over the first half of the season and just 57% of the time since. Special teams have been an issue for the Rams this season, and Seattle has the edge here, but there is nothing better than taking a defensive dog in the playoffs. The Rams are in an 81-52 ATS playoff situation as well. Make the play on the LA Rams.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills have been good all season, but have been the best team over their last 10 games where they are 9-1. The only loss over those 10 games came on a Kyler Murray Hail Mary in Arizona. The Bills have also covered 8 straight games.The Colts offense should have success moving the ball as the Bills pressure rate is a rather pedestrian 24.6% and the Colts allow a pressure rate of 18.1%, which is 3rd best in the league. Rivers has thrown all but 2 of his interceptions when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. The Colts have been the best team in the league in big play running opportunities. If they can get Taylor past the line, Indianapolis may be in for some big running plays. The Bills offense is going to score. Josh Allen has quickly grown into one of the top QBs in the league and his accuracy has taken a quantum leap. There is some question marks regarding the health of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, who are not at 100%. Te Colts will play a lot of zone coverage, and hope for a big defensive play as Allen has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions vs the zone. The Colts can't lose touch with the Bills. They have to slow down the Bills offense, and avoid playing catch up. If they can get this into the 4th quarter with the game undecided they have some advantages to come away with a win, or at least the cover. Playoff teams off a win that have a worse record than their opponents and not a dog of +9.5 or more are 64-41 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on Indianapolis.

This has been a great year for Colorado as they were not expected to be very good. The Buff`s are 4-1 with the only loss coming to Utah by 17, but that game was a lot closer than the final score. It was decided by 3 turnovers, or basically it was a pretty even game for the line of scrimmage. Texas under Tom Herman had another promising team that simply could not get over the top. All the rumors point to his exit. He has apparently been interviewing and wants out, and apparently so do a lot of the players. His team will be without 5 captains who have opted out, 3 NFL caliber players out, and 10 players all together, including a lot of the defense. Add in injuries, and this is not going to be a team resembling the 6-3 Longhorn`s season. The motivated team will be Colorado. The Buff`s played above expectations and will be ready to play. Texas is off a minster offensive game as they hung a 69 on Kansas St. but Bowl teams that scored 60 or more points in their game prior to their bowl are:

game type=BG and p:points>=60 and o:wins

There will be some wind and snow in Green Bay tonight, but most of the snow will occur before the game. The wind should not be strong enough to be much of a factor. This game fits a very strong situation, that plays on teams that are off at least 3 straight games turnover free, as long as their opponent has 3 or more turnovers in their last 3 games and the line is fewer than 5.5 points. For those that use SDQL, it looks like this:

p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

ATS:    80-37-4 (3.29, 68.4%)

These games have covered 68.4% of all games, with 121 games in the data set.

Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season at 11-0, but have now dropped 3 straight. The optics on Ben Roethlisberger are awful. He is either playing through an undisclosed injury, or he is at the end of his career, or both. He can no longer throw down field, and almost every completion is short, and his air yards per pass is the lowest in the NFL. The Steelers offense has become one of the worst in the league over their last 4 games. They have scored just 17ppg after averaging 30ppg through 10 games. Moreover, the Pittsburgh passing game isn't the only issue. The inability to stretch the defense has the running game ground to a halt averaging just 3ypc in the 4 games. The Colts are surging at 10-4 and have won 5 of its last 6 games. Perhaps most notable is QB Phillip Rivers who is having a very good year. The Colts are taking care of the ball, and that is a very positive predictive indicator as a team that has played at least 3 straight clean games, meaning no turnovers, and facing a team that has committed at least 3 turnovers in total over its last 3 games are a sizzling 80-37-4 ATS. Indianapolis also fits a contrary late season indicator that is 267-175-4 ATS. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Miami Dolphins opened last season with 7 straight losses, and here we are just a year later and the Dolphins are 9-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Just a few weeks ago the Raiders were 6-3 and looking like a playoff team themselves, but enter this contest at 7-7. The numbers however tell a different story. Miami may be 9-5 but they are getting out-gained by 30 yards per contest, and are below average on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have the biggest advantage with their passing attack vs the weak pass defense of the Dolphins. The Dolphins have turned their opponents over 26 times, and have had 7 games with 2 or more. Turnovers in the NFL are for a large part random. The Dolphins on average in 7 of their 9 wins have held a +1.75 turnover advantage. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule with 7 playoff teams thus far, logging 3 wins against them. Derek Carr will be back under center, and the QB edge is significant. Miami has some banged up receivers and in general is in a lot worse health than the Raiders. While most bettors like to take the team in need of a win in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, that is totally not the way to go. Week 16 and 17 in the NFL show a long history to prove that point. Play on a team in week 16 and 17 that has the worst record coming into the game as long as they are not an under dog of +5.5 points or more. These teams are 267-175-14 ATS.  Make the play on Las Vegas.

The New York Giants playoff hopes took a hit last week vs Arizona. After 4 straight wins, the Giants were a no-show last week losing 26-7. The Giant's liability has been an offense that is producing 14.3ppg over its last 3 games, and just 300 total yards a game on the season. They will face the red-hot Baker Mayfield offense of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has hung 40+ on each of its last 2 opponents with Mayfield throwing for nearly 700 yards in the two contests. QB Daniel Jones is questionable for this game for the Giants and the Browns offense is going to be the best unit on the field for this one. The Giants defense may keep them in it, but Cleveland will come away with another win.

The Seattle Seahawks scored 31 or more points in 7 of their first 8 games. They struggled the next 4 weeks where they failed to score more than 28 in any game, and averaged fewer than 20 points per game. The Jets were just what this tam needed as they scored a season high 40 points. The fact is Seattle has out-gained each of its last 4 opponents allowing fewer than 20 points per contest. While the offense has been slumping the poor defense has really stepped things up. Washington has been a hot team, but QB Alex Smith left last game with a calf injury and his status is up in the air. Wshington has allowed just 14.3ppg in their 4 game winning streak, but have been out-gained in their last 2. The winning streak has been fueled by a positive turnover margin in all 4 games where they are +5. The QB differential here is extremely favorable to Seattle, as Smith has 4 Tds and 6 INTs, and Wilson has thrown for 38 TDs. I think Seattle got their heads back on straight last week, and I think they win big here. Make the play on Seattle.

The Pats were embarrassed last time out vs the Rams in a prime time 24-3 blowout loss. Historically giving him extra time to prepare has been lethal as Belichick coached teams are 25-3 SU and 20-6-2 ATS on 8 to 12 days rest. His team's are also 74-49-3 ATS off a loss. Sprinkle in a 21-5 Su mark vs a rookie QB, and a 65% ATS winning rate vs 1st or 2nd year QBs and there is a lot of situations that historically has New England in a prime position here. The Pats are also 24-1-1 ATS off a loss since 2003 vs a better than .570 opponent to a line that is less than -7. Too much to ignore here. Make the play on New England.

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs are 2-7 and they have not been able to generate much offense. They are averaging 17.3ppg on the season.The Missouri defense has not held up against the top teams in the conference, but the poor offensive teams in SC, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky have scored a combined 20 points against them or 6.7ppg. Miss St. St. is the worst running team in the nation averaging 1.4 yards per carry. It has forced them to put the ball in the air 54 times a game. The aerial attack generates just 5.8 yards per attempt to a schedule of opponents allowing 7.4. Missouri is 5-4 with 3 of the losses to Alabama,Florida, and Georgia. I think there is a TD difference between these teams and will make the play on Missouri.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes were granted the right to play for the Big-10 Championship despite playing just 5 games this season. Ohio St. finished 5-0, and will take on Northwestern. This game is going to come down to the Northwestern defense and its ability to slow down the high octane offense of Ohio St. Northwestern has a legit elite defense, and finished the season 6-1. The lone loss was against Michigan St. where they had 23 players miss the game due to injuries or covid-19. They gave up 29 points. If you take that game out the Wildcats allow 12ppg. I don't expect the Cats to score a lot in this game on offense, but their defense is good at forcing turnovers and Justin Fields has been a bit less secure with the ball compared to last season. Ohio St. does not have anything close to defenses we have seen in the past from this team. They are at best very average. Northwestern also has a significant special teams edge in this game. Ohio St. fits into a Conference Championship situation that is 0-10 ATS. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Buffalo offense is led by Jeret Patterson who gained over 1000 yards despite a shortened 5 game season, and scored 18 TDs. Most of those stats cane against some horrific run stop units in Bowling Green, Kent St., and Akron where the Bulls ran for 1,339 yards. Those numbers were not nearly as good as the 2 better run defenses they saw in N. Illinois and Miami,O. The Bulls ran for just 5.0 yards per attempt. Ball St. allowed just 4.6 yards per attempt, so the Bulls should not be able to run all over the Ball St. defense. Buffalo is not so good on the defensive side of the ball and Ball St. averages 33.6ppg and should be able to stay in this game. The hype on Buffalo has allowed this line to creep upward, and the value here is on Ball St.

The Baltimore Ravens are desperate for a win, but is that enough? This simply is not the same team as a year ago. Lamar Jackson threw 35 TD passes last year, and he has just 8 this season as his QB rating has gone from 107.8 to 93.2. He is still a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. Baker Mayfield is on a roll and so is Cleveland now eyeing the AFC Central division title with the Pittsburgh loss last night. Mayfield has not thrown an interception in 6 games, after throwing 21 a year ago. The Ravens love to blitz, and do so on almost 50% of all downs, but Mayfield averages 1.3 yards per pass play more against the blitz vs a conventional rush. One of the biggest reason is the maturation of the Cleveland offensive line. They went from poor in the first 6 games to the #! unit in the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. The Browns have Myles Garrett back and he will be a problem as Baltimore has lost LT Ron Stanley an All-Pro player, and Garrett is going to have an impact. Baltimore has lost the explosiveness they showed last season where they scored 40 points in 5 games, and have not gotten to 40 even one time this year, in fact they have reached 30 just 4 times, after averaging more than that last year. The offense is down 6 points per game, and Cleveland is 5 over last year, and hung 40 on the Ravens in a win a year ago. Cleveland has revenge and a situation that plays on a better than .500 team off a road win and cover against an opponent that is off a home favorite win. These teams are 62-25-1 ATS, including 47-15-1 ATS if a dog of 4 or fewer points. Make the play on Cleveland.

While there is some low sample size situations on the under in this game, I have a couple large sample size situations (195-105 ATS, and 148-96 ATS) on the over, and the game caps out to 53.5 points scored. I always trust large samples over small ones, and with this game capping out at 53.5, make the play on the over.

Phillip Rivers will take on the Raiders for the 29th time in his career. That will be a new record for a QB facing the Raiders. He certainly has had a lot of success against them with 18 wins and 47 TD passes, along with over 7,000 passing yards. Not sure how meaningful that is, but it is a story for the history books at least. The Raiders barely escaped last week vs the Jets. The Jets chose to blitz, and basically it was a very poor coaching decision. Derek Carr has averaged 8 yards per attempt vs the blitz this year, and just 6.5 yards per pass attempt facing a conventional rush. That is important because the Colts are able to generate a strong pass rush without blitzing. The Colts rank in the top 3 teams in the NFL in terms of fewer blitzes. Not only should that limit Carr this week fom being highly effective, TE Darren Waller had a career-high 200 yards last week vs the Jets (that was more than half of the total passing yards by the Raiders). The Colts have shut down TE's all season, with none generating more than 65 yards, including just 1 TD. WR Hunter Renfroe will be shutdown by Kenny Moore who  ranks in the top 5 in fewest yards allowed per cover snap. Moreover, Josh Jacobs is not healthy, and he will not find a lot of room against a Colt's top 10 run stop unit.I think Phil Rivers faces similar issues against the Raiders defense, but I like the match up much more that the Colts defense has vs the Raiders. The Raiders were at their best when the running game was in high gear. During their 3 game winning streak the Raiders averaged better than 190 rushing yards per game vs Cleveland, the Chargers and Denver. The last 3 has seen that reduced to a woeful 67 yards per game. Josh Jacobs missed last game, and is status is in doubt this week. Make the play on Indianapolis. 

Typical NFL set up game. The Giants are flying off a huge win in Seattle, are top contenders in the NFL East (Least), and have won 4 straight. The Giant`s bandwagon is standing room only. Meanwhile, in Arizona the Card`s are leaking oil severely. Arizona has found the in column in just 1 game in their last 5 and has failed to cover any of them. The Giants held Seattle to 12 points and has not allowed any of their last 4 opponents to score more than 20. Looks like Daniel Jones will be under center again, and he has just 5 TDs to 7 INTs this season and his QB rating is down 10 points. Giants are just 73-100 ATS in their last 173 home games. Make the play on Arizona.

This game fits a total situation that is 178-113 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-57 ATS and the play is on the over.

The UCLA Bruins own a winning record for the first time since 2017. USC has started strong at 4-0 but has managed to play just 2 games since 21 days as they dealt with a small covid outbreak. Their last game was pushed back 2 days, and they have had less time to prepare for UCLA, UCLA opened with a tough loss to Colorado, and just missed the upset of Oregon as a 2 TD underdog. Te Bruins have looked better every time they have taken the field and have covered 4 straight games, and have held 3 of those opponents to an average of 12.7ppg. These teams have played pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but the two factors, less prep time for USC, and the Bruins getting better by the week has me calling for the small upset here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Army and Navy game is usually a stand alone game that signals the end of the college football season. It is typically played on a neutral field, but like a lot of things covid-19 has altered that history. This game will be played at Army, along with a full college schedule. Navy has not been the same team as they had been over a decade or so. They own just 3 wins on the season by a combined margin of 9 points. This is usually for the Commander in Chief's Trophy, but that won't be decided until next week when Army takes on Air Force. The Navy offense has been grounded the last 2 weeks generating just 13 total points. The usually strong Navy ground game is as bad as it has been in a long time, generating just 3.7 yards an attempt and only 185 yards per game. They will have trouble moving the football against an Army team that sees the option in practice and defends it better than any team on the Navy schedule. Army is running the ball very well at nearly 300 yards per game. Navy is being out-gained by 107 yards per contest while Army is +58 yards. Make the play on Army.

Since the start of the 2015 season Rutgers has gone 6-45 SU in Big-10 games.The average margin has been over 22 points per game. Those 6 wins have seen just 4 of them come on the road. The good news is 2 have come this season at Michigan St., and Purdue. Greg Schiano has made an immediate impact to the program. He has them at 3-0 ATS on the road. Rutgers has been so bad for so long in conference play, a lot goes unnoticed.The numbers are staggering. Rutgers lost on average 3-36.4 on the road last year. This year they are 34-35.3. That is a 32 point improvement from last year. Maryland has looked improved also, but has only managed to play 4 times this season due to covid-19. They have had 3 of their last 4 games cancelled.I just don't see how a team maintains chemistry and sharpness to execute to the level that is needed on game day. I think Rutgers is well under the radar, especially after losing badly to a Penn St. team that is very underrated due to the record. That being said, Rutgers only failed to cover by 3 points. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a total situation that is 536-297-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

It has been a crazy season for NCAA Football. Wake Forest has managed to play just 1 game since October 31st. They were a victim of covid-19 said to have impacted 35 scholarship players. Wake Forest held a full practice last Saturday for the first time since Thanksgiving. I would imagine the Wake Forest offense averaging better than 39 points per game is not going to be as precision as what would be considered normal. Louisville has lost 4 games by 7 points or fewer and is a lot better than their 3-7 record would indicate. Wake Forest will be without Kenneth Walker, a prime running back in the offense, as he left the team 4 days ago. Louisville has the better offense while the deefenses are pretty much even. Make the play on Louisville.

The Buffalo Bills have not won a playoff game since 1993, some 27 years ago. They are on track to make the playoffs this season, and hope to break the drought. San Francisco has been forced to move its home games due to covid-19 so this game will be at a neutral sight in Arizona. This is a classic spot for Circadian Rhythms to impact the game. Sunday and Monday Night NFL games has seen West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams due to the human body clock, something proven by science and backed up by the West Coast team's record which is 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS, covering 31 years of data. This is a must win for the 49ers if they have any hope of making the playoffs. The Niners have also been king of Monday Night Football where they are 39-14-1 ATS. (7-0 ATS vs AFC since 1994). Buffalo may be 8-3 on the season but has collectively been out-gained by their opponents, while the 5-6 Niners are +48 yards a game vs their 11 opponents to a slightly stronger schedule.I like San Francisco in this one.

The Washington Redskins have not had a regular season with more than 10 wins since 1991. They are just 4-7 this year, but still in contention in the NFC East. The Steelers look to make it 11 straight wins to start the season. I like the fact that a lot of these teams success has been with effective blitzing, but this match up features a pair of QBs that get rid of the ball very quickly. The Redskins pass rush is probably the strength of the team. Roethlisberger leads the NFL in fastest time to throw, and that will negate the strength of this Washington team. Pittsburgh throws the ball 40 times a contest, and that is even higher recently. Alex Smith is getting rid of the ball very quickly as well, and that will frustrate the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, the defensive line. Pittsburgh is 84-56 ATS in their last 140 games as a home favorite of 7 or fewer points. I think the match up here figures to see the ball in the air a lot which tends to slow games down from a clock standpoint. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 236-169 ATS and the play is on the under.

The New Orleans Saints were projected to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. The offense was never an issue, but this team was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league. They dealt with a lot of early injuries. A little known fact is the Saints since the start of the 2017 season have the best record in the NFL during the regular season at 46-13. Yes, better than the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots. They are 46-13 SU and of those 13 losses, 7 have occurred in game number 1,2, and 17. Their poor starts are well documented. They are otherwise 42-6 SU. They have covered 67% of those games. The Saints defense I spoke of earlier has allowed 25 total points in their last 4 games, including 3 to Tampa Bay. They have allowed 832 total yards on 200 plays defended at just over 4 yards per play. Tht is ultra elite. Atlanta is dealing with injuries to a pair of key offensive players. Julio Jones (hamstring) and Todd Gurley (knee), are both questionable, an even if they play, they won`t be 100%. The Saints are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS without Brees the last 2 years. The Falcons are 6-24-1 ATS at home off a home win in their last 31 games, failing to cover by over 7ppg, including 0-10 ATS as a home dog, or pick. Make the play on New Orleans

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS and the play is on the over.

I expected the New Orleans Saints to be one of the top defenses in the league this season. The Saints got off to their annual slow start, and injuries were mounting, and the defense was not performing up to expectations. That has all changed as New Orleans has become dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing just 225 points in their last 4 games including just 9 vs Atlanta. The Saints offense without Drew Brees under center has become run heavy as they have attempted just 62 passes in the last 3 games, while running the ball110 times. This compares to the previous 3 games with Brees as QB passing 113 times. This certainly shortens the game with the clock in motion significantly more than previously. Todd Gurley has been ruled out for Atlanta, and Julio Jones looks like a game time decision, so the Atlanta offense is not nearly at full strength. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings have had issues on defense all season long. They held an inept Bears offense to 19 points and very little ball movement. Their other most recent 5 games has seem them allow an average of over 400 yards per contest. The Minnesota offense should have no trouble moving the ball vs a depleted Jacksonville defense, as the powerful Viking offense coupled with a horrible defense has led them to 5 games over the total in their last 6. This is also supported by a situation that is 131-88 ATS. Make the play on the over.

Grant Gunnell the Arizona QB left last game with an injured shoulder, and is questionable for Colorado this week. I'm trying to get ahead of the situation, before he gets declared out, but I like this game even if he plays. Arizona has lost 10 straight games going back to last year. They have lost them by a combined 183 points,and 9 of the 10 losses have been by double-digits. Arizona is being out-gained on the season by over 100 yards per game. They have also lost 6 defensive backs since the start of the season, and the offensive line is bad.Colorado has been the biggest Pac-12 surprise this season thus far at 3-0. The Buff's have been dominating on defense, and have a well above average passing attack. This looks like another 10+ point loss for the Wildcats. Make the play on Colorado.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

Texas AM is on the cusp of making the 4 team playoff for a National Championship. It appears that the noose is starting to tighten for this team. Last week vs an abysmal LSU defense they generate just 267 yards of offense. The game ended 20-7, but the yardage was even. They finished the game 3 in turnovers and still did not cover at home. This team also threw up a stinker vs hapless Vanderbilt, a 17-12 win. This is a tricky game for the Aggies as Auburn lost to Alabama last week but was only out-gained by 98 yards so the game played a lot closer than the final score. Auburn is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog, and all 7 wins were outright.The Tiger are 27-3 SU in its last 30 home games,and none of the losses have come by more than 7 points. I could see Auburn coming away with an outright win here, so the points certainly look like a great position. AM certainly has a tough history vs winning teams where they are 72-99 ATS in their last 171. Make the play on Auburn.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

No, write ups this week

Play is on KC

No, write ups this week

Play is on SF

No, write ups this week

Play is on Atlanta

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on Indianapolis

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on Minnesota

It appears the Tampa Bay Bucs night game failures has gotten into their heads. So much so that Coach Bruce Ariens as he went as far as scheduling practices at night this week. The Rams. The Rams are well suited to handle the Bucs bevy of talented WRs as they have allowed just 200 air yards a game holding opponents well below their season averages in yards per pass play. The Rams held a more lethal offense in Seattle to 333 total yards in their last game. The Rams have played 6 straight games to the under allowing just over 16ppg. Despite being the 1st team to have 3 Pro Bowl receivers in the fold, Brady has already equaled his INTs from a year ago with 8, and his yards per attempt have not changed. The Bucs are just 5-17-2 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, and keep in mind that their next game is vs the Kansas City Chiefs. This looks like a FG type of game, so there is some line value. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Green Bay Packers had a huge statistical edge last week vs Jacksonville but ha to fight to the finish in a 24-20 home win vs Jacksonville. They will have a strong test vs Indianapolis on the road this week. This game is pretty even statistically, but I believe the biggest things here are the match ups. Indianapolis is strong vs the run, but are vulnerable to the passing game, perhaps the biggest advantage on the field. That advantage is enhanced by Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is having arguably his best season as a Packer, as his completion percentage is 2nd best of his career,his 26 TD passes project out to finish as his best, his 8.3% TD rate is #2, his QBR rating is a career high, and has been sacked just 10 times, projecting to a career low. Rivers has had a strong career, but just 11 TDs and 7 INTs puts him on schedule to have his 10th straight season with 10 or more (his average 15.3). While he has fumbled just 1 time this year, he has fumbled 8+ times in 9 of the last 14 years, so certainly more coming soon. A game that projects fairly even, is usually decided by the QB and turnovers. That gives Green Bay a strong advantage in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 117-54 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The surging Minnesota Vikings opened the season at 1-5, but have rallied back to win 3 straight and look to get to .500 vs the struggling Dallas Cowboys. Dallas may be the first NFL team in history to be 2-7 and have a good shot at winning their division. They will get Andy Dalton back, so will have a legit QB under center after 2 weeks o struggles. The Cowboys are also off a bye. The Dallas defense seems to be getting it together as they held unbeaten Pittsburgh to 46 yards on the ground in their last game. Minnesota is not a good defensive team and Dallas can run out 3 high caliber receivers and opportunities will be there. I think Dallas has a shot for a win here and will gladly take the points. Make the play on Dallas.

The Cleveland Browns have seen their last 2 games played score a combined 39 points vs Houston and Vegas. Th Browns offense also struggled against a pair of elite defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, scoring a combined 13 points in the 2 games. I see a lot of hidden value in this game regarding the total. The last 2 games the Browns have played were both in impossible conditions with rain and extremely high winds. While their is rain in the forecast in Cleveland, the winds will not be a factor. Cleveland outside of 2 games vs elite defenses, and 2 extremely poor weather games has averaged 37.4ppg in their other 5 games. The Eagles should get their share here as they have scored 17-29 points in every game. Make the play on the over.

Hard to believe that the 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles are in 1st place in the NFC Least. Carson Wentz is having an awful year at this point and leads the league in INT`s with 12, and his completion percentage is down to 58.s%. So why are thy such a small under dog vs the 6-3 Cleveland Browns? The Eagles and Wentz offense is at its best when Wentz can move out of the pocket. The offense has not taken advantage of that and Pederson has vowed they are going to start doing a lot more of that, as it puts a lot of pressure on the defense, not Cleveland`s strong suit. The RB combo o Chubb and Hunt are considered one of the leagues best, but guess what? Philly is better generating 5.1 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.4, while Cleveland is 5.1 vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.6. Both teams have been out-gained on the season. Since division realignment in 2002 a road team that has a losing record and lost on the road the previous week are 241-188-5 ATS, including 191-138-2 ATS if they lost their last game as a road dog and are a road dog again, as a below .500 tem. Make the play on Philadelphia.

This comes down to this quote from the Kansas St. coach:
In a year that defines uncertainty, Kansas State coach Chris Klieman finds himself in a strange situation, even by today's standards.

Kansas State intends to head to Ames, Iowa, on Saturday to face No. 17 Iowa State as both teams hold on to hope of appearing in the Big 12 title game. But Klieman and the Wildcats are not sure they will have enough players to make the trip.

"We don't have enough (healthy) guys to shift around," Klieman said. "That's probably our issue. We're (practicing) with the guys that we have, just knocking on wood that we can get through Wednesday's tests, and Friday's tests.

"We're not the only ones in the country dealing with this. We're just down so many guys in certain spots that we can't even move people. So I'm just knocking on wood that we get good results the rest of this week."

That being said, obviously whoever travels, is going to be coming out of a week of preparation that didn't involve players playing in the game, and many backups. This from a team that not counting the B-12 doormat Kansas, their last 3 games has resulted in these ugly numbers:

37 drives
4 TDs
6 turnovers
15 three and outs

Iowa St. controls its own destiny to win the Big-12. Iowa St. enters this game completely healthy with 1 player on the injury report, and have an NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy and a strong running game to close the door. Make the play on Iowa St.

The UCLA Bruins are off an improbable but impressive win over Oregon St. in what turned out to be a Sunday matinee. They were originally slated to face Utah, but the unpredictable era of covid-19 game them fewer than 48 hours to prepare for California. The question is, having taken the bumps and bruises for the first time, how do they come back heading into the deep part of the pool on 5 days rest against Oregon? I think they will have their hands full. The Ducks have shown on offense to be the most balanced and lethal team in the country as their 539 yards a game is evenly split running and passing. The win over Cal wasn't so much about what the Bruins did, it was about a Cal team that couldn't tackle, and looked totally unprepared, but that just adds value here. Remember, UCLA lost their opener as a 7 point favorite vs Colorado where they were torched for over 500 yards. The Ducks have won an covered both games, despite being -2 in turnovers in one game, and -3 in the other. Think this one has blowout potential, and make the play on Oregon.

This game is from my totals system and the play is on the under.

The Iows Hawkeyes have turned their season around after starting 0-2 they have won the last 2 in convincing fashion. The last 2 wins have come by a combined score of 84-14. Quite a different start to the season for Penn St. as they have opened at 0-4. The Nitany Lions with a loss will be the first team in their illustrious history to start the season 0-5. This is a good match up for the Penn St. defense going against the power ground game of Iowa St. While the Iowa running game has been superb, the passing game has been horrific. The Lions have a stout run stop unit, and the Hawkeyes last 4 meeting vs Penn St. shows an 0-4 mark averaging just 79.2 yards a game. Penn St. has out-gained 3 of 4 opponents, and only Ohio St. has out-gained them. The Lions in fact have out-gained 2 of their 4 opponent by over 200 yards a game, an have played a much tougher schedule. Everything that can go wrong has for them thus far. Iowa comes into this game at +4 in turnovers an Penn St. -6. That is a 10 possession advantage in the stats for Iowa, or 2.5 per game. When you incorporate that into the stats, Penn St. is the better team, and has considerable line value here. Iowa has long struggled facing off vs the blue-bloods of the conference, Penn St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. as thy are 2-15 SU covering just 6 in th last 17. Wrong team favored. Make the play on Penn St.

I don't put out game of he month or year picks every week like so many betting services just taking money on hype. So I don't want to over-hype this game, stay the course, it is just 1 game and anything can happen. Cincinnati has not allowed more than 17 points to any team all season, and the offense looks improved. All of that is true. Central Florida on the other hand appears to be a tick down. Certainly not the offense, the speed that they run plays is unseen before. One area of omission working in UCF's favor is they run 9 more plays on average than their opponent per game and at 7.2 yards per play that is significant. Cincinnati runs 5 fewer plays than their opponent, so there is 100 potential yards on the side o UCF. UCF has never been favored by fewer than 3.5 points at home since they have gotten good, so this game is suddenly about 9 points more than that? Thy are 7-1-1 ATS at home in the few games they were favored by -17.5 or less. Their last 45 games has seen their biggest loss come by one possession, or 8 points. You can't measure the Cincinnati defense from what they have played so far, this is not near any of those games. Yes, I respect the Cincinnati defense, but UCF is not going to be playing in somewhat o a disinterested game, they are going to be bringing all of it here. They are 3-0 against undefeated teams winning by 4 TDs a game! Make the play on Central Florida.

The Seattle Seahawks are 6-2 and have scored 34 points or more in both losses. It is pretty clear thee offense is elite, but the defense is horrible. Settle QB Russell Wilson is having an MVP season but in the last loss vs Buffalo the Seahawks were don in by 4 turnovers. The fact is Seattle is 6-0 when they turn over the ball 1 time or less, and in their 2 losses they turned the ball over 7 times. Seattle is now 122-97-6 ATS off a loss (18-5-3 ATS lately). They are also 8-2-1 ATS of a double digit loss in their last 11. Wilson is 19-11 ATS as a dog including 16-8 ATS as a road dog. Make the play on Seattle.

Buffalo is off to their best start since 1993. A lot of it is on the maturation of QB Josh Allen. Arizona QB Kyler Murray ha improved tremendously as well, and is on pace to gain over 1000 yards on the ground. I like the match up for Buffalo against th most potent weapon in the Arizona attack in DeAndre Hopkins, who will have to deal with Tre’Davious White, and all-pro corner that just held DK Metclf to 2 catches last week. The Bills defense is coming alive with 13 sacks the last 3 games along with 7 takeaways. The Cards appear to be close to being rebuilt, while the Bills seem to be 1 stap ahead of them at this point. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Miami Dolphins are growing up fast, and are now 5-3 as they come into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. The issue here is the Dolphins have been very fortunate as they are 5-3 but they are getting beaten at the line of scrimmage by 62 yards per contest. They beat the Rams but managed just 145 yards, and were out-gained by over 300 yards. Last week a similar story. Those 2 games saw them generate 4 non-offensive TDs. The Chargers are just 2-6, but have out-gained their opponents by over 60 yards per game. The fact is the Chargers have had 120+ yard advantage on each of their last 3 opponents, and all of their 6 losses have been by 7 points or fewer. The surface says Miami is better, but reality says the Chargers are better.Mke the play on the LA Chargers.

The NFC East has been awful this year and the Philadelphia Eagles lead the division with a 3-4-1 record. The Eagles are by far the freshest team in this game, coming off their bye, while this game makes 10 straight weeks for the Giants. Philly is getting healthy and the Giants are by now physically and mentally beaten up. The Giants last 5 games have been decided by a total of 10 points, and I think that will work against them here being their 10th game in a row. The Eagles are in a situation that plays on a team off at least 10 days rest as a road favorite of -3 to -10 points vs an opponent under .600 that is 49-15 ATS. The Giants are just 8-20 TS in their last 28 home games. Make the play on Philadelphia.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-108 ATS, and the play is on the over

Arkansas Head Coach Sam Pittman will miss this game, and will become the first SEC Head Coach to miss a game due to covid-19. The razorbacks are a story in the SEC, as they have been the biggest surprise. This is a team that had won just 4 games over the last 2 years, and have 3 wins already to a schedule that includes Georgia, Auburn, A&M, and Tennessee. Florida is coming off its biggest game of the season a 44-38 romp of Georgia, and may be without their best receiver in Kyle Pitts who is in concussion protocol. Arkansas has not had the caliber of QB like they do in Florida transfer Felipe Franks in years. He has 14 TD passes already, the most at Arkansas since 2016, and has thrown or over 200 yards in 6 straight, the most since 2000. While Florida is a high octane passing attack, the best part of the Arkansas team is the pass defense allowing 6 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 7.2. They will not stop Florida, but an extra stop or two as a big dog, could certainly be decisive. Florida has won just 1 game by more than 16 points, and Arkansas at the very least is equipped with a back door cover at the very least.Make the play on Arkansas.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are arguably off their biggest win ever. If not ever, it certainly is over the last 27 years as it marked their first win over that period where they defeated the #1 team in the country. Needless to say, this is as big of a letdown spot their is, and BC has already taken NC and Clemson to the brink this season. This the Red Bandana game at BC, as they honor Welles Crowther, who was a 9/11 hero, and BC Alum. This day has seen BC produce several upsets over the years, and can history repeat itself? BC upset a ND team that back in 1993 was off an upset of the #1 team in the country, and beat them. BC 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog with 5 outright wins. Make the play on BC.

The Louisiana program is alive and thriving. This is a team that from 1980 to 2010 never won more than 8 games. Since then they have done so 5 times, and at 6-1 on the season they are poised to make that 6. They certainly could challenge their program high 11 wins from a year ago. This game has plenty of hidden value. The Cajuns have under-performed their stats, have great special teams and a very strong defense. South Alabama is on the other side of the spectrum as the Jags have over-performed their stats on the season, and their defense is really bad. S. Alabama has certainly moved the ball well against poor offensive teams, but the top 3 defenses they have seen have limited them to 6,10,17 points, and Louisiana is better than those 3 defenses. The back door certainly has not shown to be open. Those 3 games have seen them out-scored 34-0 in the 4th quarter. This game has real blowout potential. Make the play on Louisiana.

SUCCESS AGAINST THE TRIPLE OPTION:

There are really 4 FBS teams that run the triple-option. They are the 3 military schools in Navy, Army, and Air Force, along with Georgia Southern. When a team faces the triple-option it is hard to prepare for as they just don't see it often enough. Today in the newsletter we will look at how teams fare when they have already seen the triple option this season, and have an actual game occurrence, and another week of practice to defend it. Not surprising, these teams fare pretty well in this case as we can see by:

HAVE FACED NAVY:

tS(o:team=NAVY)=1 and o:team in [ARMY,AIR,GASO]
ATS:     51-32-2

HAVE FACED ARMY:

24-14-1 ATS.

So having faced the main 2 military teams at least once already this season they are a combined 75-46-3 ATS!

This week Army will face a Tulane team that has already defended the option.

Make the play on Tulane.

The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-0 on the season, and the hype machine is in full force. They are ranked #10 in the country, which is way off the mark. there are few i any top 10 teams that are being out-gained from the line of scrimmage 5.3 yards per play to 4.7. Thy started the season with a 36-35 win vs Penn St. despite being out-gained 483-211. They also won the turnover battle. They beat Rutgers by 16, which included being +3 in turnovers. They had a big win vs Michigan and again were +2 in turnovers, and Michigan so far does not look as expected. Michigan St. opened the season with a loss to Rutgers by 11, in a game where they coughed the ball up 7 times! They also beat Michigan, but without the help of a single turnover. They were destroyed by Iowa last week, and once again a -3 in turnovers. Michigan St. has played dead even from the line of scrimmage and with power rating the schedules for each team it is dead even. This line is a perception line, and it is rich in value for Michigan St. Indiana also has Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Michigan St.