The Oakland Raiders have searched for a quality QB for years, and they finally have one quickly rising to elite status. It is unlikely that many realize that Derek Carr is now 14-3 in his last 17 games. During that span he has thrown 33 TD's and just 6 INT's, and he is clean this season with 5 TD's and 0 INT's. His yards per attempt are up to 8.2 yard, and he is certainly arriving at elite status. He now has Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and with an explosive group of receives to throw to, the Oakland offense is as good as it gets. Washington has been a run heavy team thus far this season, and Kirk Cousins is a good QB, but I think Oakland has the better team on both sides of the ball, and expect them to come away with a big road win here. The Raiders fit a situation that is 89-48 ATS as well. Make the play on Oakland.

The Los Angeles Chargers franchise is in disarray right now. They are making themselves a new home in LA, but the fan base is minimal, and this team continues to be snake bit. QB Phillip Rivers continues to play at a high level, but not much else is working right now. The Chargers are 6-16 in their last 22 games, have lost 7 straight, and of the 22 games, 18 have been decided by a single possession, unfortunately for the Chargers they are losing almost all of them. Last week rookie kicker Younghoe Koo missed a FG as time expired, adding another loss. Koo s just 1-4 on his FG attempts this season, another issue. Meanwhile, in Kansas City, QB Alex Smith has taken his last step in becoming an elite QB. he is completing 78% of his passes at 9.8ypa.The Chiefs have also gotten a huge surprise in Toledo RB Kareem Hunt, who has carried 30 times for 229 yards at 7.6 yards a pop. The KC defense has stood up when needed and have recorded 9 sacks already in 2 games. Overall, this team is taking on a look of a champion, and the process didn't just start this season. Kansas City is 2nd to New England over their last 15 games, at 12-3, and they have added a quality RB, and Alex Smith has become an elite QB. The pieces are in place for a big year, and they are still a bit under-rated. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0, and despite ranking 12th in the league with 23.5ppg, the offense has not moved the ball nearly as expected. I expect the Steelers to try and establish a running game here, as they have not run the ball well at all. Chicago is a run first team, and have a very good offensive line, but last week they turned the ball over 4 times, and got way behind early and were forced to pass, and that is not their game. Overall scoring is considerably down in the NFL this season, and neither of these offenses has shown much through a pair of games. I think this game is going to feature a lot more running than the total seems to indicate, and will play the under.

Last year the Auburn Tigers finished the season with the 5th best defense in the country, and playing in the SEC, that is making a statement. They have an even better defense this season, and through 3 games, they are ranked #1 allowing a stingy 201ypg, and held the Clemson attack to 14 points. They have a good chance of shutting out a poor Missouri offense, that has some very misleading numbers. The Tigers opened with Missouri St., and proceeded to pile up over 800 total yards, but against SC and Purdue, they managed 13 total points, and could not move the ball at all. The Missouri defense allowed 31.5ppg a year ago, and had to replace 6 starters, and have allowed 36.3ppg so far without facing a stellar offense. Auburn has Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at QB, and while he has not been great he has been adequate. Auburn's numbers don't look as good as they could, after turning the ball over 5 times a week ago, but teams playing as a road favorite of -14.5 or more, off a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover are 50-19 ATS in their next game. I think Auburn has had a tough week of practice after the 5 turnover debacle a week ago, and will be ready to blow this one wide open. Make the play on Auburn.

Both these teams opened vs opponents that were way over their head, and started 0-2, but each had a cupcake last week and got much needed wins. This will be the first highly competitive game each has played. Lane Kiffin has taken over at FAU, and this team will eventually be good, but for now, they will struggle. The Owls have been 3-9 for 3 straight years, but I expect them to be in the hunt for a Bowl game, and a win here is crucial to that outcome. The Owls should do well offensively here with QB Daniel Parr beating out former Florida St. QB DeAndre Johnson, and RB Gregory Howell Jr. has averaged 12.1 ypc on the ground. Buffalo has looked good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle. Buffalo had some awful numbers on both sides of the ball a year ago, and while they should improve on both sides of the ball there is a long way to go. The only player on offense right now is QB Tyree Jackson, but that being said he is completing just 54% of his passes, and leads the team in rushing. There simply is no one else making an impact, and I think Kiffin schemes to key on him, which will force someone to step up, and through 3 games we just have not seen that yet. Florida Atlantic fits in an impressive 70-23 ATS situation for this one as well. Make the play on Florida Atlantic.

One team that I projected as a potential National Championship team this year is Oklahoma St. Their 1st 3 games has done nothing to change that. They have an offense that is absolutely loaded, and Heisman candidate Mason Rudolph continues to improve. he threw for 28 TD's a year ago, to just 4 INT's, so add 11 more TD's and 1 NT, and he is the best in college right now. he also has the top receiver in James Washington, and a now sophomore RB in Justice Hill (1,142 yds last year), and so much more. This is by far the best offense in football. The question for this team is the defense, but they are improved and can potentially be very good. TCU is not the same team on either side of the ball, and lost 31-6 last year to the Pokes at home. TCU allowed 30+ points against them last year 7 times. They will be hampered on offense with Kyle Hicks likely out. QB Kenny Hill threw 13 INT's a year ago, and any improvement on offense is going to up to him. While TCU addressed their issue of size on the OL, it lacks experience especially against an offense of this magnitude. They stumbled too often last year against the better teams combining to score 22 total points vs W. Virginia, Oklahoma St., and Kansas St. Oklahoma has great special teams, and led the nation a year ago in opponent's starting field position. Last but not least, the Cowboys fit a super strong 104-42 ATS situation for this one. All Cowboys here, make the play on Oklahoma St.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be back in the national spotlight this season. They have passed their first test vs W. Virginia in their opener, and have started 3-0, out-scoring the 3 opponents 122-41. The Hokies like to run the ball and have done so 45 times a game, passing just 30. The ability to run has allowed QB Josh Jackson to throw in good spots and he has completed 65% of his passes at just shy of 10 yards per attempt and a strong 15.1 yards per completion. Hokies as usual will enjoy a strong special team's advantage here also. Old Dominion is 2-1 but wins over Umass, and Albany were not impressive, and allowed 53 points to North Carolina at home, completing just 14 of 32 passes. tech has the ability to put up 50+ here as well, but a difference from the NC game is, the Hokies can defend much better, and I don't see the Monarchs scoring 23 here as they did vs Carolina. This game fits a situation that has been 278-196 ATS, and has been even better of late. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Arizona coach Rich Rodriquez is under scrutiny, and his shallow recruiting has left a lot of holes on this Arizona team. His buyout is over 5 million, but he is treading on tender ground right now. Last year the Wildcats finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 2003, and things don't look very promising. The Cats lost 8 games in the Pac-12 a year ago allowing 44.8ppg in the losses, and have a defensive line with a pair o players under 250lbs. so they are getting pushed around. The QB position is held down by Brandon Dawkins, who has no WR's to throw to, and they are suited for the ground. problem is, the Utes allow less than 50ypg on the ground, and I don't see the Cats generating much. Utah attack improved with OC change, have a duel threat QB, and off to a 3-0 start. Utes have won 9 games in each of the last 3 years, and looks like they will likely get their again. Road teams in competitive games (+3.5 to -3.5), after a pair of ATS wins, and prior to week 8 are a blistering 70-23 ATS over the last 7 years, and the Utes qualify here. Make the play on Utah.

I think Bronco Mendenhall was a good hire for Virginia, but after his 2-10 season in his first year at the helm. Mendenhall himself admitted the scope of the rebuilding process is a lot greater than he thought. Virginia has had 1 winning season in their last 8 years, and despite what looked like a great game last week, beating Uconn 38-18, the Huskies are among the worst teams in the country, and have been for several years. The Cavs lost their prevoius game at home by 17 to Indiana to gain some perspective. I think that win has held the line down here, and playing at Boise St. is far from a walk in the park. Boise St. has a very strong defense, and while Washington St. scored 47 points, it was a triple overtime game, and the Cougars managed less than 5 yards a play. QB Brett Ripien will be back under center for Boise St. and while the offense does not have the level of playmakers it did a year ago, I think the Broncos dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides. The Broncos own a 119-20 SU mark at home, and amazingly, 86 of those wins have come by 13 points or more. Broncos 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 13 or less, and 89-57 ATS following a win vs a conference opponent. Make the play on Boise St.

This game fits a situation that has a 26-0 ATS record, and the play is on the over. I live in Florida, just got my power back on, so no write ups this week.

This game fits a situation that has a 57-21 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 57-21 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

NE/NO  OVER   55   -110 (teams off a MNF game vs an opponent off a Thursday game are 24-5-1 to the over, including 12-1 if the total is 45 or more.

The Holy War will take place in BYU this season. The Utes have owned this series of late, but most game have been close. BYU has shown no signs that they will be able to move the ball on the Utes, while Utah struggled early vs N. Dakota and got things rolling. BYU needs their defense to come up big here, because they are going to have trouble getting points. They have run the ball poorly, and the passing game has been to be kind, ordinary. Overall the Utes come into this game with the better team before the season started, and continue to look like more of a complete team since the season started. I think this is going to be a long year for BYU, as they have Wisconsin on deck, and are looking down the barrel of 1-3, with the lone win a struggle vs Portland St. Utah with a win and San Jose on deck could enter Pac-12 play at 3-0, and I like them here. Make the play on Utah.

Most don't consider Oklahoma St. to be an elite team, but since the start of the 2010 season, only 11 teams have more wins than the Cowboys. This team has not been afraid to run up the score, having won 21 games during the period by 30+ points. They have been especially strong outside the conference where they are 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS, during the regular season, and 9 of the wins have come by 30+. They have been favored by 28 or more points in 9 games, and have won by an average margin of 43.1ppg. They have a Heisman candidate QB, a plethora of talented skill set players and an improved defense. They also fit a very predictive situation, one that reads, road teams off a favorite win vs an opponent off a loss, to a line of more than -20 are 79-35-1 ATS. Mae the play on Oklahoma St.

Tennessee and Georgia Tech will travel to the Superdome in New Orleans to open their 2017 season. The biggest advantage in this game belongs to Georgia Tech. The SEC is known to be the toughest conference, especially on defense. That typically plays into the hands of an opponent that runs the triple option, or in modern terms the flex bone. The entire idea of the flex bone is to negate the better defenses ability to defend an opponent, and shorten the game, and bridge the gap. History proves that out. Looking at flex bone teams including Georgia Tech, Citadel, Navy, Army, Air Force, Georgia Southern, they have a combined ATS record vs the SEC of 25-3-2  if you don't include the Georgia Tech vs Georgia games, as Georgia sees it every year, playing their instate rival. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

UCLA caught a tough break when QB Josh Rosen went down with a season ending injury. UCLA finished 4-8 and were 1-5 without Rosen, who is on the NFL scouts radar. Texas A&M loses he destructive DE Myles Barrett from the defense, which was pretty much average with him. The UCLA defense lost 4 starters to the NFL, and will be a lot less talented and experienced than last season's very good defense. Overall, I think both offenses will have the advantage in this game. Kirk and Williams are  play makers on the Aggie's offense, and with Garrett gone on defense, and little pass rush, and an NFL caliber QB, I think this game is going to see a lot more points than projected. Make the play on the over.

Hurricane Harvey has forced this game originally scheduled to be played in Houston, to be moved to the Super Dome in New Orleans. That is good news for LSU, as this becomes a quasi-home game. BYU finished at 9-4 a year ago, but think the record has them overrated coming into this season. The Cougars finished +14 in turnover margin a year ago, and chances are they will not have the same good fortune this season. QB Taysom Hill is now gone, as is RB Jamal Williams, and Tanner Magnum will be under center. I don't think this team is as well coached now that Bronco Mendenhall has moved on. BYU is going to struggle running the ball, as Magnum is purely a pocket passer, and defenses, such as LSU are going to tee-off on him in bad down and distance situations. LSU is now under the direction of Ed Orgeron. he brought in Matt Canada to run the offense, and finally the explosive talent of the Tigers ill have a chance to shine, as Canada is going to open up the offense in a big way. Overall, this is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, and special teams. BYU is 0-6 ATS in the regular season vs the SEC since 1998, don't see anything to change that here.Make the play on LSU.

Going back to 1985, no Kentucky team has ever won more than 8 games. is there a chance the Cats accomplish that or more this season? This will be Mark Stoops 5th year, and he has built a team that is starting to look SEC caliber for the first time ere in years. They have 3 very likely wins outside the conference vs E. Michigan, E. Kentucky, and this one vs S. Miss. They have 3 SEC road games, that are winnable vs SC, Miss St., and Vandy, and do not play Alabama,Auburn, or LSU. They have their best team, and easiest schedule. Last year opened as poorly as it could have, with losses to S.Miss and Florida, but more disturbing was giving up 40+ in their first 3 games, with 2 opponents being S. Miss and N. Nexico St. They certainly got things turned around finishing the regular season 7-3 in their last 10 regular season games, and a win at Louisville to cap it off. Just 1 opponent scored 40+ the rest of the way. S. Miss loses one of their best QB's all-time, from an offense that eroded 7ppg from the previous year. Their top 15 defense from a year ago returns just 4 starters. Ken Howard will take over the offense, but a 44% completion rate, and 4 INT's vs ODU, and N. Texas a year ago, is great cause for concern. The offensive line is being rebuilt with JUCO's and freshman, so a questionable QB, with a new OL is highly suspect. Kentucky has revenge, and the goods to get it done. Make the play on Kentucky.

Utah St. has had a lot of recent success, having gone to a Bowl game in 6 straight seasons. That all came tumbling down last year when they finished 3-9. While the 3-9 finish was disappointing, they were not so far away from a different outcome, as they lost 5 conference games by a grand total of 29 points. Not many 3-9 teams finish the season having been out-scored by opponents by just 5.4ppg, but that was the Aggies fate a year ago. This team always seems to run the ball well (2000+ yards in 8 straight seasons), but with a new DC, promising to open the field, they may have a different look. Wisconsin should be good defensively, the question is, how will the offense be? QB Alex Hornibrook threw just 9 TD's and 7 INT's a year ago, and the running game is going to have a whole new look. The talent is there, but it may take a few games to show itself, and think the number is way too high here. Make the play on Utah St.

Friday September 1st, 2017

The South Florida Bulls had their best season ever a year ago, one which ended with a Bowl win over an SEC school in South Carolina. That led to the coach moving on to a P5 school, replaced by Charlie Strong. That means a new system on both sides of the ball, and having to travel 3000 miles or their opener, is not easy. The offense averaged over 42ppg a year ago, and scored 30 r more in every game. The problem was the defense. Despite such a high powered offense, the Bulls did not win any of their last 8 games by more than 20 points. San Jose is an interesting opponent. Mainly because OC Andrew Sowder, was a coach at Texas under Charlie Strong, now the coach at USF. His OC followed him to USF from Texas as well in Sterlin Gilbert. That means Sowder knows the lay of the land when it comes to the Strong coached, and Gilbert run offense of the Bulls. Sowder also coached under two powerful offensive minds at Bowling Green, under Dino Babers, and Baylor, under Art Briles. I think ther is a huge talent differential here, but a huge coaching edge on both sides of the ball for San Jose St. Points are simply too high here, make the ply on San Jose St.

I took the top 11 SB`s in regards to the distance from the best offense, to the best defense. Here is an example:

The greatest disparity ever was the 2014 SB as Denver averaged 37.9ppg and the Seattle defense allowed 14.4ppg, the difference, or disparity is:

37.9 - 14.4 = 23.5ppg

I wanted to see how the big offenses, when playing with a huge gap regarding points allowed by the defense in the SB.

The 11 games showed the following results:

The defensive team won 9 times the offensive team 2 times. What is even more clear is the fact that the 2 times the offensive teams won, it wasn`t because of their offense.

1971 DALLAS 24 MIAMI 3 :

Dallas averaged 29ppg the Miami defense allowed 12.4ppg a difference of 16.6ppg, ranked #6 of all SB`s

1968 NY JETS 16 BALTIMORE 7:

Jets averaged 29.9ppg Baltimore allowed 13.4ppg a difference of 16.5ppg

All offensive teams in the 11 games averaged just 14.64ppg in the SB, and allowed 27ppg. Even in the 2 wins they averaged just 20ppg. The 9 losses saw them average 13.44ppg.

So then I looked at the composite game stats of all 11 games. It wasn`t that these teams were stopped from moving the ball, they averaged 388 yards per game. The reason why they lost, was for 3 reasons:

1) Could not convert in the red-zone vs the good defenses

2) Their defense could not stop the opponents offense (27ppg)

3) As expected TURNOVERS

despite most of these big offenses having Hall of Fame caliber QB`s, that did not turn the ball over, they did so in the SB vs the top defenses. A total of 31 turnovers in the 11 games. That is an average of almost 3. Likewise, in the 2 games they won, they forced 8 total turnovers! despite the 8 opponent turnovers, they only averaged 20ppg, so they could not crack the end-zone with or without them. Opponents meanwhile cashed in 51 points in their 9 wins on defensive/special teams scores, or 5.7ppg.

Remember, this is just an 11 game sample, but the disparity in this game is Atlanta offense 33.8ppg NE defense 15.6 or a disparity rating of 18.2ppg.

Many make the mistake at looking at defense/offense as yards gained. That does not matter, it is points that matter. Bill Belichick said in a recent interview, I don`t care how many yards we give up, I care about how many points we give up. The fact is these 11 teams averaged nearly 400 yards a game, but scored 14.64ppg.

No team since 1971 (and there have been 9 games), have cracked the win column with a big offense vs a big defense based on the disparity between them.

The most points in the 11 games a top offense has scored in these games is 24, and only 3 got past 17.

This doesn`t mean NE is going to win, but history is on their side in this report.

IT IS JUST 1 GAME, anything can happen! What we do to make a wager, is decide what is more likely vs what is least likely to occur, and if we are any good at doing it, every 20 games or so we will get 1 more right than the expected 10 from 20 picks. Sounds easy, but what that means, and this is where most fail, if you make just 1 pick out of every 20, just to chase, just to get action, just because the game is on TV, just because of anything other than following disciplined handicapping principles, YOU LOSE! The 1 game in 20 edge is destroyed. That is why most don`t win. if you bet 1.5x on 1 game, because it is someone`s game of the year, and it loses, or you bet 2,3,5 times more, YOUR DEAD!

There is an extreme hype regarding the Atlanta offense. Consider this:

Atlanta 33.8ppg
NE 30.0ppg (with Brady)

Atlanta 415 yds/game
NE 400 yds/game (with Brady)

What I am seeing and hearing is how elite the Atlanta offense is, which is certainly true, but the NE offense is right there with them.

The big difference is on the other side of the ball. Even if many think the Atlanta defense is under-rated, and on the improve, they have given up 24ppg in their last 3, hardly a stellar unit.

Many are also forgetting that Atlanta has the #32 rated red-zone defense. Dead last in the league.

I`ve said it many times, this is just 1 game, but have to go with NE in this one.

Sunday January 22nd, 2017

Since October 19, 2015 the Kansas City Chiefs are an unbelievable 23-5. That is the best record of any NFL team over the last 28 games. They have out-gained their opponents less than half the time, just 13 times total, including just 5 times this season, despite generating 12 wins. The Steelers over the same period have out-gained their opponent 21 times, which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs are doing it with smoke and mirrors. They have had 18 games of the 28 played with an average turnover margin of 2.6, and they are 17-1 SU in these games, and 15-3 ATS. They are 2-8 ATS when the turnover margin is 0 or negative. Since a good percentage of turnovers are random, they are being over-valued here. Turnovers have been directly responsible for 3.5 points per game for the Chiefs this season, and the probability of them having a turnover advantage in this game is 50-50. The Chiefs are the worst 12 win team in NFL history from the line of scrimmage, as their opponents have out-gained them by 26 total yards a game. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 32 from the line of scrimmage and even better than that when they have Brown, Big Ben, and Bell all in the game. There is no telling if their will be a regression to the mean in this particular game for KC, but the line, their 12 wins, and hosting here, are based on numbers that are a lot uglier than the line, so all things being equal, the Steelers have the better team, on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

 Dallas crushed GB at Lambeau 30-16. It would be easy to take away from that...the better team is by far Dallas. Green Bay over the last 7 games, is statistically the best team in the NFL. They have beaten more teams in the playoffs than any other team (7-2).

Green Bay had an 0-4 stretch, ouch! Looking back on those 4 games they had up to 10 starters out! Otherwise this team is 11-2, and even those 13 games were injury laden, as this one will be as well.

I made the statement that GB is the best team in the NFL the last 7 weeks...statistically, here are those numbers:

OFFENSE:

Rushing yards per attempt 4.3
Passing yards per attempt 6.8
Yards per play 5.57

The Packers are 0.75 yards per play better than their opponents in the 7 games. They accomplished the hat trick during the 7 games, scoring 38 points in all 3 games vs arguably the top 3 defenses in the NFL, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants. Rodgers has thrown 22 TD`s to 0 INT`s, and has been the best QB in the league for years, and is playing at an all-time high level right now.

There are concerns. GB has lost so many CB`s to injury, they are vulnerable, on the sidelines, when they don`t have safety help over the top. This will be concerning, because if they try to play a 2-deep, Prescott is going to change the play at the line of scrimmage, and a heavy dose of Elliott will be a problem with not enough in the box to contain him. The Packers are going to have to pick their poison, Elliott or Prescott going long on the outside. They have done well in the last 7 games in this regard, but Dallas is a bigger challenge.

The assumption is that Prescott will be Prescott, most likely he will be, but this is his 1st playoff game, so until he gets settled into the game, it is a wait and see, there is a small chance he implodes. I`m sure GB is going to try and put a lot of heat on him early to test him.

Not only has GB won the line of scrimmage in their 7-0 run, they are 16 in turnover margin, and have played 5 straight clean games (0 turnovers), and just 1 turnover in their last 7. They are the 2nd team since division realignment to come into a playoff game with 0 turnovers in 5 straight games, the other was SF in 2011, who won and covered, winning the turnover battle. I have GB qualifying in a turnover situation that is 38-4 ATS. teams that enter week 19 with some mojo, a streak of 2-7 wins, are 27-9 ATS if they are not a 10 point dog.

week 19 teams that allowed less tan 20 points in their last game, playing to a line of less than 9, vs an opponent that scored less than 35pts in their last game are 23-5 ATS, and a perfect 21-0 ATS if the total is less than 43 or the total is greater than 45.5. That 21-0 ATS situation shows the worst loss a team has suffered was by 7 points, and just 3 by more than 5 points!

Week 19 home favorites from -4 to -9 are 6-18 ATS since 2006. In the end, like always, this is just 1 game, anything can happen. You do your bes, do your homework, and come out with an opinion. I happen to like GB here.

The Houston Texans were completely out-played in their early season game vs New England. They were dominated 27-0, never even getting on the scoreboard. There have only been 3 NFL teams in the last dozen years that were shutout in a game earlier in the season, and all 3 of them lost, and none of them covered. Houston has a very limited offense, but a very strong defense. They also don`t allow a lot of plays as they play very slow on offense. The defense ranked #1 this year limiting opponents to 59.9 plays a game. They finished #3 allowing 4.9 yards per play, #2 in opponents passing yards per attempt at 5.9 and allowed fewer passing 1st downs than any team in the league. New England has averaged 30ppg since Brady came back, but I don`t think they get to 30 here, and teams that were shutout in an earlier game have not scored more than 14 points the next game, and Houston may struggle to even get to 14. looks like a low scoring affair here in New England, make the play on the under.

This is a game of contrasts, that brings the NFL's best offense up against the NFL's best defense over the last 5 years. The Seahawks won in Seattle 26-24, but a no-call on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones was highly contested, and Seattle took the win. Those things tend to stick with teams, and this time Atlanta gets Seattle at home. There is a stark contrast with this Seattle team playing at home vs on the road, in fact it is staggering. They averaged 28.1ppg at home, and just 15.9ppg on the road, and 3 times on the road scored  6 points or less. Seattle has a problem with their offensive line, and Russell Wilson who used to bailout the offense with his legs, has been dealing with injuries all season, and is at a career low in carries, yards, and yards per attempt. he has also had the worst passer rating of his NFL career, and thrown more INT's than any previous year. The Seattle defense is still very good, but no longer elite. The loss of Earl Thomas really hurt. Since that injury the Seahawks have given up 38 to Green Bay, 34 to Arizona, and 23 to lowly SF. Matty Ice has had his best year in Atlanta. The Falcons have gone for 33 or more points in 11 of 16 games, and the Atlanta offense vs the Seattle defense, is much further apart than the Atlanta defense vs the Seattle offense. The Seattle pass defense is now average allowing 6.7 yards per attempt to teams that average 6.6, and now worse without Thomas. Atlanta should be able to score plenty in this game, and they are a combined 1 yard per play better than the Seahawks, and the line is not reflective of it. Make the play on Atlanta.

Top Side Play · [151] Clemson Tigers                 +7    -112
    Mon Jan 9th, 2017 8:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

The Detroit Lions were 9-4, and all they had to do was win one of their last 3 games to clinch the NFC North and they failed to do so. That means they are on the road to open the playoffs against the Seattle Seahawks, a very dangerous home team. The Lions have been 0-3 since Matthew Stafford dislocated a finger on his throwing hand. The Lions have the ugliest history of any NFL team playing out west, as they are a brutal 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS combined vs the AFC West, and the NFC West. They have lost these games by an average score of 29.7 to 15.7, or 14ppg. The Lions had a patsy schedule and finished the regular season 0-5 SU vs teams that have made the playoffs. They also fit a horrible profile, as teams that are not fumble prone, and average less than 0.4 lost fumbles a game, are not favored by 4 or more points, to a total of less than 47, are 0-10 ATS in the playoffs. Seattle is 17-1-1 ATS on turf as a favorite, if they threw for 282 or more yards in their last game. Finally, week 18 home favorites of -8 or more are 9-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average score of 30-12. Make the play on Seattle.

The Oakland Raiders were a potent offensive team behind QB Derek Carr, but his injury has many believing this offense is no longer what it was. Last game against Denver, the Raiders struggled, and managed just 6 points. Most of that was with Matt McGloin who was 6-11 for a woeful 21 yards, or less than 2 yards per attempt, as he was clearly over-matched by the Denver defense. McGolin was injured, and 3rd string QB Connor Cook took over. Cook proceeded to go 14-21 for 150 yards at 7.3 yards per attempt. Those are very good numbers, with a limited playbook at his disposal. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt this season. While Cook is not Aaron Rodgers, he will have much more of the playbook to work with, had reps all week with the offense, and I think he will move the ball here. Brock Osweiler has made 19 home starts in his career and averaged 28.2ppg in those starts. He has 6 career starts vs Oakland and has averaged 31.2ppg. Make the play on the over.

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

It was going to be impossible for Iowa to duplicate last season, but they did have a respectable season at 8-4, and had a huge win over Michigan. The issue this season has been the lack of much offense. The Hawkeyes 4 biggest games against Minnesota,Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St. saw them score a total of 51 points, and they are going to be hard pressed to move the ball against Florida. Florida has 11 players, mostly on defense that are dealing with injuries, but the 3+ weeks off will get a lot of those players on the field. Florida gets this game in Tampa, and will have a big share of the crowd behind them. Florida held 8 teams to 10 or less points this season, and I don't see Iowa doing much offensively here. Iowa is in a bad spot historically for this Bowl game, one that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on Florida.

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Denver

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Diego                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

San Francisco                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

LA Rams                             

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Washington                             

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

CINN                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Miami

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Philadelphia                           

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

NY Jets                              

Happy New Year to all!

Week 17 home teams, that have less wins than their opponent are 115-72-5 ATS:

Tennessee                              

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Through 4 games this year Louisville looked like they were the team that was going to challenge Alabama for ther National Championship, especially after dismantling Florida St. 63-20. They lost game 5 to Clemson and never seemed to regain their swagger, and went 5-3 after the big start. Louisville played too many lackluster games, against Duke, and Virginia, and at home vs Kentucky. When they are right, they are unbeatable. LSU finished a disappointing 7-4. This team seemed just good enough to tease, but not get over the top, and their 4 losses came in their top 4 games vs Alabama, Florida, Auburn, and Wisconsin. They were not blown out in any of the games, just could not score enough to win, netting 37 total points in the 4 games, or 9.3ppg. Louisville has the elite defense that can do the same here, and the Cards apply to a 47-28 ATS Bowl situation, while LSU finds themselves in a 33-60 ATS spot. Make the play on Louisville.

Paul Johnson has had a lot more success running the triple option at Georgia Tech than anyone had imagined. This will be his 8th Bowl game with the Yellow Jackets, but for some reason, he has not done well in the post-season at just 2-5 SU/ATS. His team has averaged just 19.7ppg in Bowls. Kentucky will be playing its first bowl game since 2010, so you know this team will be stoked to be playing in one. The Cats closed the season 7-3, and no win was bigger than their upset of Louisville in their finale, so they should be a confident team coming in. Georgia tech fits a horrific Bowl situation, one that is 6-39 ATS, and recently it is 0-15 ATS. Hard to go against that. Make the play on Kentucky.

The Orange Bowl will have a pair of teams with a lot of Bowl history on their side. Michigan has been in 33 Bowl games since 1980 and Florida St. 34. The Noles are 22-11-1 ATS in their Bowl games, but have failed to cover their last 2. The Noles didn't quite stack up defensively this year, usually a strong suit. Their 3 toughest games vs Louisville, Clemson, and North Carolina saw them give up over 500 yards in each game. They allowed 4.9 yards per carry, and 10.0 yards per pass attempt. Overall, they allowed 66% completions, 7.2 yards per play. Michigan has a dominating defense that gave up just 12.5ppg this season, and at the saame time, an offense that averaged 41ppg. This is a huge mismatch, and many may feel that the loss to Ohio St. will have this team flat for this game, but read this. Teams with 2 losses, with one of the losses occurring in their most recent game, and favored by less than -10, vs an opponent off a win, are 17-0-1 ATS in their Bowl game. My 2016-17 Bowl Game of the Year, is on Michigan.

Teams that average 40.25ppg on the season, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, to a total of less than 64 are 17-0 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Air Force was the President`s Trophy winner this year, beating both Army and Navy. That worked out well this season because Air Force has limited teams that average 4.8ypc on the ground to 3.4ypc. The problem is a team that can at least be a threat in the air, where they have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt to teams that average 7.8. S. Alabama does not run the ball well, but are slightly above average in the air. The Jags have some high quality wins on the season, beating both Mississippi St., and San Diego St., so their ceiling is higher than it looks. Air Force is in a Bowl situation that is 28-56 ATS, as well as another that is 3-20 ATS. make the play on South Alabama.

This game fits a bowl situation that is 29-7, make the play on the under.

This was supposed to be the year Tennessee broke through, and won the SEC East Title, with a shot to take down mighty Alabama. It never materialized. The Vols did finish a disappointing 8-4. Losses to SC, and Vandy late in the season, as well as a defense that allowed 31 points or more to 6 of their last 7 FBS opponents held this team back. Nebraska finished 9-3, with losses only to Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Iowa. Nebraska has not finished 10-3 or better since 2003, and will be motivated to get their 10th win. Tennessee is in a Bowl situation that is 36-73 ATS, and despite a defacto home game in Nashville, Nebraska travels very well. Tommy Armstrong will miss this game, but the line has over-adjusted for that, and will back Nebraska in this one.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 20-2 ATS, and the play is on the under.

It has been 10 years since Colorado went to a Bowl game, so obviously the seniors on this team and everyone else is going to be bringing the `A` game. Oklahoma St. has been to Bowls many a time, but when they come into a Bowl game off a loss to their rival Oklahoma, they have rolled over and played dead at 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by 18ppg. Kind of tells you where their mind set is likely to be.The Cowboys are also 1-7 ATS as a Bowl dog, and face a bowl situation that is 61-103 ATS. Motivated team takes this one. Make the play on Colorado.

This game fits a Bowl totals situation that is 9-32 O/U and the play is on the under.

It has not been a very good stretch for teams that lost their conference championship game when it comes to their bowl game. Virginia Tech lies in that treacherous path today. Last year these 8 teams went 0-8 SU/ATS. This year the only winner has been LA tech, but they beat a team that also lost their conference championship game. Arkansas Finds themselves in situations that are 24-4 ATS, and one that has SEC Conference teams as a dog from 7 to 10.5 points at 18-5 ATS, going 11-12 SU in the 23 games as an average 8 dog. Make the play on Arkansas.

South Florida had a great season, but they will be playing this one with T.J. Weist as an interim coach, as Willie Taggert has moved on. That doesn`t usually work out so well. The AAC has begun to look like an over-rated conference, as they are a woeful 1-5 in their 6 Bowls so far, and now 6-16 in conference history. They have also been just 4-6 SU in Bowls as a favorite. South Carolina is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Bowls. They are said to be excited as well as the fan base, of the direction of this team, after finishing 1-7 in conference play last year. They are also 3-0 lifetime vs the AAC. South Florida fits a horrible Bowl situation that is 3-20 ATS, that plays against certain bad defensive teams. SEC teams that scored less than 14 points in their last game are 11-2 ATS in their Bowl game, and SEC teams that are a dog from 7.5 to 10.5points are 18-5 ATS in their Bowl game as well, going 11-12 SU in those games as an average 8.4 point dog. Make the play on South Carolina.

Teams that average 40.25 or more points per game, and playing to what looks like a low total for that big of an offense, set at less than 64, and are not a dog of 3 or more points, are 17-0 to the under in their Bowl game. Play this one under the total.

The Kansas St. Wildcats under Coach Bill Snyder have been point spread darlings throughout his coaching tenure, but that has not translated well to Bowl games. Kansas St. is just 7-12 SU in Bowl games, and a woeful 5-14 ATS. Those numbers are even worse lately, as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Bowls, as well as 1-9 SU. Kansas St. is a very strong team on the ground, both running the ball and stopping the run, but are very mediocre against the pass on both sides. The good news for AM is QB Trevor Knight will be playing. His running ability adds another dimension to the Texas AM offense, and the Aggies are 7-2 in his 9 starts where he finished the game, losing only to defensive walls Alabama, and LSU. I don`t think they will have to deal with quite the same resistance here against Kansas St. Kansas St. has not only been an under-achieving Bowl team, but they fit a Bowl situation which is a woeful 13-45 ATS. Make the play on Texas AM.

The Indiana Hoosiers played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. While they finished at 6-6, they saw 4 of those losses occur against Penn St., nebraska, Michigan, and Ohio St. They lost those 4 games by an average of 12.5ppg, so they certainly were not embarassed. despite all the tough games, the Hoosiers won the line of scrimmage by 61 yards per game. They throw the ball very well, and for a team that has been all offense in recent years, they are above average defensively as well. Utah at 8-4 grades out as an average team on both sides of the ball, and appear statistically to be considerably over-rated, and things started to catch up to them after a 7-1 start, finishing 1-3. I think Indiana is slightly better on both sides of the ball, and Utah also fits into an ugly Bowl situation that is 36-70 ATS, while the Hoosiers fit a situation which is 22-4 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Indiana.

It was a very strange season for Miami, Fla. They won and covered their first 4 games, lost and failed to cover their next 4 games, and won and covered their last 4, so what happens now? They will be playing close to home in Orlando, so they should have a good representation here against West Virginia. The Mountaineers were 10-0 outside of Oklahoma, falling only to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. This is a team that has flown under the radar all season, finishing at 10-2 in a power conference. remember, there are only 4 power-5 conference teams in the country with fewer losses. The Mountaineers are a very balanced team, they don't do anything elite, but they are extremely good running and passing, as well as defending the run and pass. Miami better come to play, but Bowl teams off 3 straight wins and ats wins, with a few other things added in are 13-44 ATS in Bowl games, which doesn't bode well here for Miami. Make the play on W. Virginia.

This is strictly a situational Bowl play. Teams that scored 60 or more points in their last game are 0-10 ATS when facing a team with less than 8 wins in a Bowl game.

I`m sure everyone is aware of the fact that 10 Minnesota players are suspended for this game, for alleged involvement regarding a sexual assault. That now has Washington St. as the highest percentage public pick of all remaining Bowl games. That may be all you need to know, as it is a knee jerk reaction by the public, and I think the line has `over` reacted. None of the players are key for this game, but it will challenge the depth and heart of this Minnesota team, but often when things look bad, a team finds an extra gear. Washington St. had a strange season. They opened with 2 losses, and closed with 2 losses, and won all 8 of their games in-between. Minnesota faced Penn St., Iowa, and Nebraska, and lost by a total of 17 points, and 2 of the 3 were on the road. I think they are better than a double-digit dog in this contest, and they also apply to a 26-5 ATS situation. Make the play on Minnesota.

Minnesota has a lot of suspended players, but none of the lost players are big impact players. They are going to have to stay in this game with their defense, which has been the strength of this team all season. They are likely to try and run a lot more than usual just to shorten the game, as they are going to be lacking depth in some areas. Washington St. is known as a big offensive team, but the best unit they put on the field this year is their defense. Certain tesams that score over 40ppg are 15-0 to the under in their Bowl game, and it applies against Washington St. here. Make the play on the under.

Temple has put together their best 2 years in a long time, as they have won 10 games heading into their Bowl. This looks like a complete mismatch, as the Temple defense has been a brick wall in their last 5 games, limiting opponents to a grand total of 20 points, or 4ppg. So how can Wake Forest stay in this game? That is at least how most see this one. While that makes good copy, it doesn`t necessarily make a winner in a Bowl game, in fact, an argument can be made that it works against them. Teams that enter a Bowl game that have allowed less than 7ppg in their last 5 games are 0-7 ATS the last 7 occurrences. Overall, when a team has allowed less than 7ppg in their last 5, and facing a poor offense that averages less than 24.1ppg, they are just 1-3 and have been out-scored allowing 21.3ppg. Temple is in bad Bowl situations otherwise as well, which are 3-19, 36-70, 61-103, and 28-53. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Army snapped a 15 game losing streak against their rival Navy, and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. If your worried about a letdown, the Army is 3-0 ATS since 1984 in their Bowl game after beating Navy. They also have another score to settle vs 5-7 North Texas. North Texas beat Army at west Point earlier in the season 35-18. Army ran 88 plays to North Texas` 50 in that game, and the difference was a ridiculous 7 turnovers by Army, tying them with Tennessee for the most turnovers in a game this season. North Texas lost their starting QB for this game Mason Fine, and he will be replaced by 5th year senior Alec Morris. Morris is a slight downgrade to Fine, completes a lower percentage at a 0.5 yard per attempt less as well. The Mean Green has another issue, and that is the knee of their top RB Jeff Wilson, who is going to give it a try in this game, but not at 100%. Army is 14-1 ATS playing in Texas, where a lot of their players are from. A win will give the Army 8 wins, the most they have had since 1996. teams that lost in a game earlier in the season as a favorite, and face that team in a Bowl game, also as a favorite are 5-0 ATS, covering by 10.20 points per game. Make the play on Army.

Both these teams needed to win their last game to get to 6-6, and it is an opportunity to close the season, with a positive. There is an interesting division, with both the Maryland offense, and the BC defense, that seems to dictate which way to go here. Maryland played 6 games vs mediocre or bad defenses, and averaged 40ppg. They also faced 6 teams with above average or elite defenses, and averaged 14.3ppg. That spells trouble vs a BC defense that was similar. BC struggled against above average offenses, and allowed 37.3ppg, but against mediocre offenses, they allowed 6.8ppg. The BC offense is poor, but Maryland`s offense is going to really struggle here. Make the play on BC.

What a turn of events for this Miami,O. team. They opened the season at 0-6 and could of easily packed it in, but went on to win 6 straight for a Bowl bid. They certainly did not have any big wins, but Bowl games are about the team feeling, motivation, and they certainly have the edge here. Miss St. is 5-7, is only in a Bowl because of the volume of bowl games is greater than deserving teams. They can`t even get to.500 with a win, and after a schedule of big SEC games, I can hardly see them bringing their season stats to this game. This has been the case throughout Bowl history, as teams that are .770 or less, and favored in a December Bowl game their bowl game by more than 14 points are 0-12 ATS since 1980. They have lost 5 of the 12 games straight up as an average of a -16 point favorite. We have already witnessed this in 2016, as Idaho, a 16 point underdog, won easily outright over Colorado St. I see a similar outcome here. Make the play on Miami,Ohio.

It has been a record setting year for Troy, as their 9-3 record ties for the most wins in their FBS history, and their .750 winning percentage is their best. Things started great as they opened the season at 8-1, with the lone loss coming at Clemson by a scant 6 points. They were at one point 4-0-1 ATS through 5 games, but fell from there finishing 2-5 ATS in their last 7, dropping 2 of their last 3 straight up. Ohio U. nearly pulled an upset of their own in the MAC Championship game, and a late interception, on a potential go ahead drive was stopped by an INT in a 29-23 loss to 13-0 W. Michigan. Ohio, U. was blistered for 56 points vs Texas St. in their opener, but not a single team scored 30 on them the rest of the season. That includes a pair of p-5 conference teams, Toledo, and W. Michigan. Both defenses will be the best units on the field as each offense is limited. This game also fits a pair of bowl situations that have been 28-6, and 14-2, both to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits 2 Bowl specific situations, one is 28-6 and the other is 27-7 (completely different situations, just very similar results). Make the play on the under.

The NY Giants are most likely to be the top wild card team, unless something crazy happens, so this is not a very big season maker or breaker for them. The biggest thing I have for this game is a very strong 101-48 ATS situation on the Eagles, as well as a 51-15 ATS late season home dog situation. Make the play on Philadelphia

This may be the last Bowl in the FBS for Idaho, as they are are stepping down to the FCS for the start of the 2018 season. This should be a highly motivated spot for Idaho, who could match a team record 9 wins if they can come away with the big upset here. They are playing in Boise,ID in their home state, and their 2 appearances in this Bowl, were both wins. The Vandals lost 4 games all season, and all 4 were to teams that are in Bowls, and combine to have just 11 losses on the season. The bad news is, all 8 of their wins came against a team with a losing record. They do enter this game however having covered 7 straight games. Colorado St. has also covered 7 straight games and closed on an offensive tear vs some very good teams, beating San Diego St., Air Force, and N. Mexico, while scoring 158 points, or 52.7ppg. Double digit dogs that allow more than 29ppg are 14-2 ATS in a Bowl game. December Bowl teams with a winning percentage of .770 or less and are favored by more than 14 points, are 0-11 ATS, having lost outright in 4 of them! One of them was this same Idaho team, in this same Bowl beating Southern Miss as a 17 point dog 42-35. de ja vu?

Make the play on Idaho.

When a bowl game lines up a pair of teams, and neither are from a power-5 conference, and there is an outlier total (less than 50 or greater than 70), the under is 14-1. Make the play on the under.

If Washington makes the playoffs, it won't have a lot to do with defense. Carolina, one of the best defensive teams in the league a year ago, has slipped in a big way. Both these teams can move the ball, and will get little resistance. The Panthers are 24-5-1 to the over in their last 30 games as a dog from 3.5 to 10 points, most occurring with Cam Newton under center. (11-1 over if the total is 47+). They are also 20-3 to the over on the road to the same +3.5 to 10 line last 23, including 15-0 to the over from +7.5 to +12.5. Kirk Cousins is 28-13 to the over in his last 41 starts, including 16-6 to the over with a total from 47-54. Make the play on the over.

: If not for the NY Giants the Dallas Cowboys could be unbeaten coming into this game. Dallas has clinched a playoff spot, and looked like a team that did so last week. Meanwhile they will do battle with the surging Tampa Bay Bucs. Could it be that Zak Prescott is hitting the wall? He has failed to throw for even 200 yards in 3 straight games, and Dallas is 2-24 on 3rd down in the last 2, and he threw multiple INT`s last game. Don`t look now, but Tampa has rattled off 5 straight wins. The bucs defense has become a force allowing just 64 points in their last 5 games at 12.8ppg, and 3 of those are potential playoff teams. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

I will start this with the fact that over their last 21 games the Detroit Lions have the 2nd best winning percentage of any NFL team, at 15-6 (.714). They are not considered among the elite, but they certainly have been. A lot of that is due to the absolute clutch performances of QB Matthew Stafford. The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter in all but one game this year, and they are 9-4. More remarkable is the fact that over those last 21 games, no team has beaten Detroit by more than 7 points, and if they played to the line offered here vs the Giants in all 21 games they would be 18-3 ATS. Kudos to the Giants who apparently have Dallas` number, beating them twice, for the Cowboys only 2 losses on the season. However, NY has lost to Pitt,Green Bay, Minnesota, and Washington. Their last 5 wins came against the LA Rams, Philadelphia, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Those 5 teams are 17-48-1 SU. get the picture? The Giants may not be the team the record says they are. Make the play on Detroit.

I will start this with the fact that over their last 21 games the Detroit Lions have the 2nd best winning percentage of any NFL team, at 15-6 (.714). They are not considered among the elite, but they certainly have been. A lot of that is due to the absolute clutch performances of QB Matthew Stafford. The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter in all but one game this year, and they are 9-4. More remarkable is the fact that over those last 21 games, no team has beaten Detroit by more than 7 points, and if they played to the line offered here vs the Giants in all 21 games they would be 18-3 ATS. Kudos to the Giants who apparently have Dallas` number, beating them twice, for the Cowboys only 2 losses on the season. However, NY has lost to Pitt,Green Bay, Minnesota, and Washington. Their last 5 wins came against the LA Rams, Philadelphia, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Those 5 teams are 17-48-1 SU. get the picture? The Giants may not be the team the record says they are. Make the play on Detroit.

A season of unrealistic expectations has turned into a dreadful one for the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the blame can be passed around, a lot of it is going to fall in the lap of QB Blake Bortles, who has thrown 21 TD passes, but has also been picked off 15 times. His low 6.6 yard career average per attempt is down to a paltry 6.1 this season, and for his career he is just 2-18 SU as a road dog. Brock Osweiler has been equally unimpressive, but he has been a different QB in his career at home where he is 15-3 SU and 12-5 ATS, and also in his career he is 19-2 SU as a favorite and 15-5 ATS. Houston is in a weak division, but have taken advantage of that as they are 5-0. The Texans are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite, including 7-0-1 ATS at home. Make the play on Houston.

There is no doubt that LA Lafayette will be the school with more fannies in the seats as the New Orleans Bowl is right in their back yard. They are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at the Superdome in this Bowl, but all those teams finished the season at 8-4. This is not a team anything resembling those teams. They own just 5 wins vs FBS teams and have beaten just one team above .500 (Arkansas St.). Southern Miss is also 6-6, but match up well here, as the Lafayette offense is much below average, and the worst of their defense is against the pass where S. Miss is above average, and S. Miss is one of the healthiest teams in the Bowls coming into this contest. S. Miss owns big wins over Kentucky, and LA Tech to get here. Lafayette is in a brutal Bowl situation that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on S. Miss.

The Miami Dolphins 8-5 start to the 2016 season has largely been considered to be from the blossoming of QB Ryan Tannehill. Unfortunately, he is likely done for the season and will be replaced with journeyman backup Matt Moore. Moore`s last start came 5 years ago, ironically vs the Jets. he threw 32 times for just 132 yards, a rather poor 4.1 yards per attempt, and was picked off twice. The Jets are pretty dinged up, but I would assume they are going to focus their defense on stopping the run, and dare Moore to pass. Bryce Petty has struggled in his starts for the Jets. Dolphins just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a favorite. teams off a home dog win from week 5 on, that have a winning record, stumble badly in their next game at a woeful 55-109-4 ATS mark. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The Toledo Rockets and the Appalachian St. Mountaineers will both be looking for a win to complete what would then be a 10 win season. There has never been a game between these teams, but there is some history. Appalachian St. Coach Scott Satterfield spent a year as Toledo`s QB coach, and passing game coordinator. Appalachian St. runs out of the triple option, and that is a tough system to defend, and it is purely a ball control offense. Teams running out of this set, are 29-14 to the under in Bowl games. The Mountaineers have allowed just 10 passing TD`s all season, and has picked off 20 passes this season. App St. set a Sun Belt Conference record allowing jut 94 points in 8 games. Teams facing each other, and both are not from a power-5 conference in a Bowl game are 14-1 to the under when the total is not extreme (meaning not less than 50, and not greater than 70). Make the play on the under.

central Florida is the only team since 2004 to go win less the previous year, and make a Bowl the following year. UCF has now done it twice! Arkansas St. opened the season a dreadful 0-4 SU/ATS. It certainly appeared their string of 5 straight winning seasons was coming to a close. While losses to Toledo, Auburn, and Utah St. were not so unexpected, a loss to C. Arkansas made things look ugly. The Red Woves resoundingly turned things a round and finished at 7-1 the rest of the way, 5 points from 8-0. They averaged beating teams by 17ppg, and allowed just 15.2ppg. Central Florida may have made a huge turnaround, but their 6 wins came against 5 FBS teams that were a combined 18-42 SU, with no team better than 4-8, and a win vs a losing FCS team, hardly a resume that jumps out as says solid favorite for this game. Arkansas St. fits a Bowl situation that is 96-58-2 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The LA Rams come to Seattle with a new coach, but I doubt that will help them here. Seattle may have played their worst game in the Russell Wilson era last week, turning the ball over 6 times, in a 38-10 loss. It was the first time they lost a game by more than 10 points in 97 games. Chances are, they are chomping at the bit to get the bad taste out of their mouth. This will be the Rams 13th straight season at .500 or less, and they have averaged a bleak 16.5ppg since 2006. They own a 3-11 ATS mark on the road as a dog of 12 or more in their last 15. Seattle comes in at 13-0 ATS facing a divisional opponent that averages less than 5 yards per play, winning by an average score of 31-9 at home. If that isn`t bad enough, Thursday home favorites of -4 or more, against a team that is not winless, but is less than .333, to a low total of less than 44.5 are 12-0 ATS as well, winning by an average score of 32-11. Make the play on Seattle.

Looks like deja vu for the Atlanta Falcons who started last season at 6-1, and fell off the cliff, and did not make the playoffs. This season`s 4-1 start is collapsing all around them, now just 3-4 in their last 7 games. The offense has been superb, but the defense is another story, and holding this team back. The Falcons have allowed 24 or more points in 10 of their 12 games. Meanwhile, the Rams have scored 24 or more points just twice all season, but at the same time have held 6 opponents to 17 or less. Something has to give here. Matt Ryan is just 15-26 ATS in games as a favorite from -2.5 to -9.5, winning by an average of just 3ppg. Think the line is too high here, and Rams just 4 home games all season where they allow just 15ppg, and outscored by just a FG. Make the play on LA.

Teams off a huge MNF win of more than 17 points, have been great bets in their next game. They are 75-47-3 ATS. If they are in the "main stream" of NFL teams winning greater than .400 but less than .750, that zooms to 45-14 ATS. If there opponent is greater than .375 and less than .850, it zooms to 39-7-1. Finally, if it is prior to week 15, when things change, they are 33-3-1 ATS. Make the play on Indianapolis. (24-2-1 ATS at home, 13-0 ATS to a line greater than -4).

The Mistake on the Lake, will have a say in Sunday`s snoozer, featuring division rivals Cincinnati, taking on host Cleveland. While it has been a good year for Cleveland sports fans this year, not so for the Cleveland Browns who enter at 0-12. The Browns have dropped 15 straight games going back to last year, and are just 1-22 in their last 23 games overall, and 3-30 in their last 33, OUCH! Agh, but they are 3-1 ATS in those games as a home dog of less than a TD. Cincinnati has made the playoffs 5 straight years, but will not participate this year. It is unimaginable that they show up on the road, in what is expected to be a cold and snowy day in Cleveland. Teams that have not won a game, and are on more than 7 days rest, from game 6 out, are 21-3-1 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Minnesota Vikings had the air of invincibility early in the season when they started 5-0. The offense wasn`t pretty, but did manage 23.8ppg, but the defense controlled the line of scrimmage allowing a stingy 12.6ppg, and no opponent scored more than 16 points. The wheels have since fallen off, as the Vikings are 1-6 in their last 7 games, with an offense that has topped out at 16 points in 5 of the 7 games, and a tiring, not still good defense that has allowed 20.9ppg.Jacksonville was this seasons dark horse, but at 2-10, it just never materialized, and the streak has reached 7 straight losses. The Jags at 2-10 have out-gained opponents by 23 yards a game and Minnesota is upside down at -6. Sam Bradford is just 10-18 SU in road games, and 1-4 as a road favorite. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This is one of the most popular games in NCAAF, as there are so many retired vets brought up on this game, as well as National interest from many. Army is 6-5 on the season, and will go bowling for the first time since 2010, and the 2nd time since 1996. Shockingly, this is just the 3rd time since 1980, that both these teams come into this game with a winning record. Army ranks #2 in the nation on defense behind Michigan, but with a pathetic schedule facing a pair of teams well below the FBS, and loaded with cupcakes, this team is hardly as good as the numbers. Offensively they went for 60 in 3 really lopsided and disadvantaged opponents, but just 15ppg otherwise. Navy lost their QB and top RB against Temple, but this is an offense that isn`t dependent on any one player, but precision execution. The game opened at Navy -11.5, but the betting line on Army is long, as many think this is the year they break out of a 14 game losing streak. I don`t see it. Navy has a poor pass defense, but are at least average vs the run, and strong against the option, as they see it every day as does Army. Navy wasn`t a top 25 team for no reason, and while they may not be now, they are truly more than 4 points better than a poor Army team, with fake stats. Navy is 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS vs Army in this series with a line from -3 to -14. Make the play on Navy.

It looks like QB Andrew Luck, and WR T.Y. Hilton will play for the Colts tonight, as this MNF snoozer at least has a competent QB in the fold. This game is also in the Andrew Luck strike zone as he is 30-13 ATS when the total is 45-52. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an accident waiting to happen with his 10 TD passes and 13 INT's on the season, and is just 4-10 ATS as a home dog, or just in case there is a line swing, he is 7-17 ATS with a line from -2 to +5. Hard to back a Jet's team with a QB that has far many more bad games than good ones, and at 3-8 on the season, the Fat Lady has already sung on the Jet's season, while the Colts still have a chance, in the poor AFC South. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Denver Broncos have certainly played well on defense, but the offense is holding this team back considerably, and it is about to get worse. QB Trevor Siemian is out with a foot injury which means that Paxton Lynch will get the nod at QB. Lynch has completed passes for just 6.7 yards per attempt, which is a downgrade from Siemian. Jacksonville was supposed to challenge for a playoff spot this season, but it just didn't materialize. They have also had some bad breaks swinging a few games against them. The good news is, despite the 2-9 record they are a much better team than the record would indicate. They are riding a 6 game losing streak, but have been in 8 games this season decided by 1 possession, and are 2-6 in those 8 games, flip that around and instead of 2-6 if they were 6-2, they would be 6-5. Their last 4, all against winning teams were 1 possession games, and 3 of those were on the road. Make the play on Jacksonville.

It is hard to go against the New England Patriots. This is a team that has been one of the NFL's greatest and long lasting dynasties. There will be a lot written about Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. This is a complete mismatch with Brady, who with a win, will become the winningest QB of all time, against the Rams, and Jered Goff, who has yet to win even 1. Tom Brady has had many of good seasons, but this may arguably be his best with a 116.7 passer rating 18 TD's and just 1 INT on the season, and 8.6 yards per attempt. That pales in contrast to Goff's 5.5 yards per attempt. Brady is 31-16 ATS in his career vs a team that allows 18.5 to 24.5 points per game, and the pats have to keep winning if they want home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Rams haven't managed as much as even 250 total yards in Goff's 2 starts, will be hard to keep up here. Make the play on New England.

The Detroit Lions are fresh off their thanksgiving win vs Minnesota, and after the Vikings fell to Dallas on Thursday, the Lions have a bit of a cushion in the NFC North, and a win here could position them very well. The Saints may have something to say about that, as they have recovered from a slow start, gotten themselves to 5-6, and a win puts them back in the playoff hunt, a loss may mean the end to those hopes. Drew Brees is on fire, completing better than 70% of his passes in 6 straight games, a career best. While the Lions are 6-1 in their last 7 games, they have not managed as much as 350 yards in any of them, nor have they rushed for 100 yards in any of the 7 games. Matthew Stafford is having a good year, but points are just not coming. Since starting 0-3 the Saints have covered 7 of 8, have scored in the 40s on 3 occasions and in the 30s in 6, and after giving up 34 or more points in starting 1-4, they have not allowed more than 27 in any of their last 6. Lions come crashing down, while the Saints continue to rise. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cincinnati Bengals have been to the playoffs for 5 straight seasons, but at 3-7-1 they are pretty certain not to make The Cincinnati Bengals have been to the playoffs for 5 straight it 6. So what has gone wrong? The NFL is a pretty balanced league, but this season the Bengals have drawn the short straw for sure. There are currently 16 teams with better than .500 records on the season, the Bengals have played 9 of them! They have had just 2 games vs teams with a losing record, both wins by the way. Philadelphia started the season on fire, with what then looked like a potential rookie of the year QB in Carson Wentz. Their 3-0 start saw them score 29 or more in every game, allowing just 9 points per game. Fast forward and they have not scored more than 24 since, and have allowed 24 or more in 6 of their last 8. The Bengals, despite facing winning teams each of the last 4 games, are winless, but have lost the 4 games by a total of 10 points. Finally they get a winning opportunity, where they have been very good, against an Eagle's team that has lost its way on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Arkansas St. went into last week with a 15 game conference winning streak, and despite out-gaining their opponent 521-292 they lost by 5 points. That is a misleading result, and one that should serve them well here. Arkansas St. is holding their conference opponents to -72 yards per game from their average, while averaging +92 yards in those games. Texas St. is -184 yards per game in conference play, have dropped 7 straight, and statistically are among the worst team in the FBS on both sides of the ball. Texas St. has been out-scored 137-31 the last 3 weeks. Since 1999 a team that has been out-scored by 100 or more points in their last 3 games, and playing as a 21 point or more hime dog, are 9-18 ATS, losing by 33ppg, and have been shutout 7 times! Make the play on Arkansas St.