I like playing against a team that is off a win as a dog,in particular when they were out-played in that win on the road, and are on the road again. Arkansas St. is averaging just 17.8ppg against FBS opponents. They are really going to have to do a better job scoring to stay in this game vs. a 3-2 Texas St. team that averages 37.8ppg, and just missed beating Arizona St. on the road  in a 3 point loss. The Arkansas St. defense is well below average as well. Arkansas St. is above average on both sides of the ball, and I think this is a 3 TD win for the Bobcats. Make the play on Texas St. Road dogs off a dog win of 3 or fewer points often suffer a letdown as they are 209-248-9 ATS covering just 45.7% of the time. I like Texas St.

This game fits a very strong situation that plays on certain certain home dogs following their bye week. It is 96-61 ATS, with a couple better subsets. Make the play on Central Michigan.

The Washington Huskies will head to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes. The Washington Huskies are 4-2 on the season, and their two losses have come by a total of 8 points. Washington was not expected to be putting up the numbers they have so far. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense, and the defense has been great allowing just 4.1 yards per play. They have a net 2.8 yards per play. Iowa always has a good defense, but the Washington defense has been better. The Huskies have an advantage on both sides of the ball. They also fit in a strong situation that is 528-402-29 ATS (56.9%) that plays on conference road dogs with a total of 46 or fewer points. Make the play on Washington.

North Carolina has been better offensively with Jacolby Criswell under center, and it has taken the offense from above average to more significantly above average. When you look at the change in offense it leaves Georgia Tech, and North Carolina very similar in terms of production on offense. The dog is this game has a better defense, in North Carolina, and they are also playing at home. Georgia Tech has out-played their stats on defense coming into this game, so their is value on the other side, because a regression is going to occur. I like the home team, with the better defense, getting points. Make the play on North Carolina.

Rutgers started the season 2-0 over a couple of extreme cupcakes with a 44-7 win to open the season and they followed that with a 49-17 win vs. Akron. Those games blended in with their last 3 games shows this team almost a full yard per play below average vs. the 3 decent teams on their schedule. Wisconsin changed QBs and appear to be benefiting from it as Braedyn Locke connected for 351 yards on just 31 pass plays vs. Purdue. This game also fits a 63-39-2 ATS situation which has been better lately at 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Make the play on Wisconsin.

This game fits a Monday Night Football situation that is 43-12-3 ATS, and another that is 16-3-1 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a quandary. Trevor Lawrence has been a big play passer, but his short passing and ranks 3rd worst in short passing accuracy. At the same time he has 9 passes of 20 or more air yards which is first in the NFL. The Jags have not done much after the catch but with TE Evan Engram back this week, he ranked 2nd out of all TE`s. Anthony Richardson amazingly has 0 yards passing vs. the blitz, but Jacksonville is a team that blitzes very little. They don`t blitz over 80% of the time. The Jaguars defense is not healthy and they are giving up 27.3ppg on the season. The Colts put up 27 on the Steelers last week, and should move the ball in this game. Make the play over the total.

This game fits an 87-44 ATS situation, and the play is on Baltimore.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

The Duke Blue Devils have defended a lot better than projected coming into this season. Their 5 opponents on the season have each failed to score more than 21 points. The Duke defense is allowing just 4.5 yards per play, one of the best marks in the nation. They enter this game vs. Georgia Tech at 5-0 for the season. Georgia Tech managed just 19 points vs. Louisville last eek, a comparable defense. This is just too many points, and Duke applies to a 57- ATS momentum situation, based in part on their good start to the season. Make the play on Duke.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

Louisiana Lafayette is 3-1 and have been riding the improvement of QB Ben Wooldridge. The Ragin Cajuns have scored at least 33 points in all 4 of their games and come into this contest at 3-1. Southern Miss was once a mid-major power with 18 straight winning seasons.Since that point, the Golden Eagles are just 58-93 SU. This season they are 0-3 vs. FBS teams and have been out-scored 124-31. Make the play on Louisiana Lafayette.

The Ole Miss Rebels looked invincible until they went to Kentucky last week. The Wildcats held the Rebels to 17 points on their way to a huge upset win. Just as a footnote, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6. South Carolina has already covered their 2 games as a dog this season, and fit into a very strong situation today. Conference home dogs of 4.5 or more points off a home win and are on 10 or more days rest, and facing a team on regular 6 days of rest or less are 41-10 ATS. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Thursday Night NFL game will feature division rivals as Tampa Bay heads to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The Falcons look like they had their best offensive game of the year last week when they scored a season high 26 points vs. New Orleans. Looking closer, the Falcons got a lucky win as they got a pick-6 and a score from a muffed punt. The offense generated very little. If you take those scores out, the Falcons offense is generating a woeful 15ppg. RB Bijan Robinson is going to play a huge role in this game, as the Bucs have struggled against the run all season, and this should help slow the game down. Thursday Night home favorites tend to do well as they are 112-85-6 ATS, but in division just 53-47 ATS. However, Thursday Night home favorites in division games are 62-38 ATS to the under, covering 62% of the time. I like the under.

The Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins are both banged up coming into this game. The Dolphins have lost QB Tua Tagovailoa to another concussion. His replacements Tim Boyle, and Skylar Thompson have been awful, but they have a capable back up now in Tyler Huntley. This will be a significant upgrade for the Dolphins. Tennessee has lost the best member of their secondary in Chidobe Awuzie, who is out with a groin injury, and Jeffery Simmons is doubtful with an elbow injury, taking away another key defender impacting the Titan's pass rush. QB Will Levis meanwhile has 18 turnovers in just 11 games for the Titans. I see a lot going on here for this game, and most of it tends to favor the Dolphins. Make the play on Miami.

The NFL has long been a contrarian league. The Buffalo Bills are in a spot that depicts that perfectly this week. The Bills have destroyed their last 2 opponents. They beat the Jags 47-10 last week and the Dolphins 31-10 2 weeks ago. The Bills are in one of the worst historical spots I have. When a team scores 30+ points in their last 2 games while allowing fewer than 13 in those same two games, and a couple other factors, they are 0-24 ATS. Make the play on Baltimore.

The San Francisco 49ers have had a lot of early season issues. They are missing so many key players. New England was torn to pieces last week vs. the Jets. A team that was beaten by their last opponent by 20 or more points and playing as a road dog this week are 213-167-6 ATS or cover 56.1% of all games. Make the play on New England.

The Washington Commanders may have found themselves a long term QB, something they have not had in many years. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense have not turned the ball over all season. I looked up how many teams start the season without any turnovers through 3 games, and how they do in game 4? There have only been 9 occurrences since 1994 and these teams are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. It prompted me to look at all teams that have not had a turnover in 3 straight games. These teams are an outstanding 110-70-5 ATS! (Cover 61.1% of the time). Make the play on Washington.

The Rams are off a major unlikely come from behind win vs. the San Francisco 49ers. Their win probability reached as low as under 5%, but they somehow came out with a win. That sets them up in a huge letdown situation. The Rams are also hurting on the offensive line where they have used double-digit players taking snaps. Chicago is seeing Caleb Williams starting to get a grasp of the NFL and making better decisions. More than any of that though is the Rams are in an 0-25-3 ATS situations based in part on the lack of rushing by their opponents. Make the play on Chicago.

The Indianapolis Colts have a favorable match up vs. the Steelers. It is all about Anthony Richardson. Richardson has struggled vs. the blitz, but thrived otherwise. The Steelers are impossible to run on, and do not rely on the blitz, as they are a bottom 19 team in terms of blitz frequency. The strength of the Colts offense is their offensive line, which I think can neutralize pressure. Richardson loves to stretch the defense, and with a low total here, if he get a couple long ones, the Colts are going to win this game. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Penn St. Nittany Lions are generally a good team to play on. They have consistently beaten the line since the start of the 2016 where they are 62-38-4 ATS, and 47-25-3 ATS to a line of -21 or less. (24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 in this role. Illinois has had 12 straight losing seasons. Penn St. won its biggest game of the season so far 31-12 over West Virginia. Illinois is coming off a big overtime win vs. Nebraska as an 8.5 point dog. I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Illini, and I will back Penn St. in this one.

I wouldn't expect a lot of defense as both these teams are significantly below average on that side of the ball. The biggest area of exploitation in this game will be the North Texas passing attack destroying a horrible Tulsa pass defense and secondary. The Mean Green put the ball up in the air over 40 times a game. The North Texas bad pass defense is not going to be taken advantage of because Tulsa QB Kirk Francis is quite bad. I also have the Mean Green in a situation that is 211-138 ATS. Make the play on North Texas.

Michigan is off to a 3-1 start, and the Wolverines have not scored more than 30 points in a game yet this season. They beat USC because of some long runs, as well as a defensive touchdown. Alex Orji does not look like a capable QB as he threw for a paltry 22 yards. Minnesota already has 2 shutouts on the season, and their defense is elite. They have a similar problem as Michigan, as the offense has not been good at all, and is way below average. Totals in the Big-10 of fewer than 36 points are 8-3 to the under. These teams pace their offense as slower than a normal paced game, which will limit possessions in this game. I like the under.

The Kansas St. Wildcats have really been a strong team when they played a poor game their last time out. Kansas St. is 53-27-1 ATS after losing their last game by 10 or more points. (11-2 ATS in their last 13). Make the play on Kansas St.

These teams have generally both been under teams, and I like the numbers in that regard tonight. Washington has allowed just 41 total points all season in 4 games at an elite 3.8 yards per play, and have generated 11 sacks on the season. Washington is 45-29-1 to the under since 2018, including 10-2 to a total of 47 or fewer points. These teams also fit in a historically good play on the under that has gone 84-37-7 to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Miami, Fla. Hurricanes look like a National Championship caliber team. They have dominated the line of scrimmage through 4 games by averaging 8.9 yards per play, while the defense is allowing just 4.5. That means they have had a 4.4 yard per play advantage over their 4 opponents. The result is 52.3ppg and allowing 10.3ppg. Miami QB Cam Ward is in his 5th year, and it appears he has saved the best for last. He has thrown for 1,439 yards with 11 TDs and 1 INT. The Canes have had 8 different players score a TD, and 5 different players have also scored a TD. The defense has 8 INTs in 4 games. The mismatch here is much larger than the line. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

The Temple Owls had a stretch of 6 seasons where they finished at .500 or better, but since then the Owls are 11-36 SU. The Owls offense over their first 2 games showed them scoring just 14 total points. It was pretty clear that QB Forrest Brock was not the answer. He was replaced by Evan Simon and the passing game went from 4.9 yards per attempt with Forrest Brock under center to 8 yards per attempt under Simon. The 14 points from the first two games have gone to 65 points the last two with Simon under center. The Owls are -10 in turnovers, but that is likely to slow down, so this team is better than they have shown. Army is just 10-18 ATS as a road favorite over many years. Temple has already played Navy, so they gained valuable experience against the triple option, and teams that have seen it already this year tend to do much better the 2nd time around. Make the play on Temple.

This game fits a total situation that is 35-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play over the total.

The Atlanta Falcons don't get much attention league wide. They have only been on Sunday Night Football 8 times, but since it is a big deal in Atlanta playing on Sunday Night, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in 7 Sunday Night home games. This will be the 24th such game for the Chiefs and they are 10-13 ATS. Atlanta is coming off an improbable win in their last game winning at the end. The Chiefs have not gotten Travis Kelsey involved, and his age is starting to come in question, as TE's stats drop quickly at the age of 34 and beyond. The Falcons are in a huge 48-9 ATS situation. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Dallas Cowboys were humiliated last week by the New Orleans Saints 44-19. They outplayed the Cowboys by 2.4 yards per play. Prescott has a 4-12-1 ATS mark in a non-division game following a Dallas loss. Baltimore looks like a team that has gone bad, but before you bury them, consider this. Baltimore is 0-2, but are the #1 offense in the league at 417.5 yards per game, and have out-gained their 2 opponents by +111 yards per game. New Orleans ran all over Dallas last week, and Lamar Jackson and company, and Jackson is 20-1 SU vs the NFC in his career. Baltimore has outplayed both their opponents, so the 0-2 is a mirage. A team that starts 0-2 and is playing a team that is not 0-2 are 50-32-1 ATS since 2010. John Harbrough has a better track record on the road than any other coach. He is 81-54-9 ATS. The last 18 times Baltimore has not been a favorite of 3 or more points, they are 15-2-1 ATS. I like Baltimore in this one.

I think fresh in most people's mind is the Houston Texans looking like a top team in the playoffs. They also saw Minnesota as a mediocre middle of the pack team. The Vikings through 2 games, have substantially out-played their expectations on both sides of the ball. They are 2-0 for a couple of reasons. Minnesota ranks 2nd offensively at 6.1 yards per play. Defensively they are 4th in EPA. The Houston offense ranks just 18th. The Texans failed to cover both games. I think these teams are playing a lot differently than what we expected, in a positive way for Minnesota, and a very negative one for Houston. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have opened up on the road at 2-0 while scoring just 1 TD in the 2 games. The Steelers have always played conservatively on the road under coach Mike Tomlin once he got his feet on the ground. His team since the start of the 2012 season has played 63-30-3 to the under in road games, but at home they are 47-45-2 to the over. I don't think the running game will do the job vs. the Chargers. The Chargers have the lowest EPA in the NFL through two weeks defending the run. The Steelers are 3rd best against the run, so both teams are going to have to throw the ball a lot more if they want to win this game. I think this total is off because the game situation on both sides does not look friendly to running the ball with any great deal of success. I like the under.

This game is based in large part to the history of an NFL team as they enter week 3 with 2 losses, and the last loss was by fewer than 7 points, as long as they are a home favorite of 3 or fewer points. These teams have been brutal as they are 3-21-2 ATS and have on average failed to cover by 8 points per game. The Bears are in a 145-84 ATS situation as well. Make the play on the Chicago Bears.

New Mexico is allowing 47ppg on the season, and have the worst defense in all of the FBS. They are allowing 565 yards per contest. Fresno St. has a good defense that should slow down the New Mexico offense, which is not too bad. The driving factor in this selection is an 89-47 ATS situation in favor of the Bulldogs. Make the play on Fresno St.

The Ole Miss Rebels have one of their best teams ever, led by QB Jaxon Dart. He is 73-88 for 1,172 yards 8 TDs and 1 INT. Parish and Jones are each gaining 7.5 yards per carry at least, with 9 more TDs. Defensively they are allowing just 4.1 yards per play. Ole Miss can strike quick, and points should not be an issue here as the Rebels have out-scored their 3 opponents 160-9. This game also fits a situation that 41-12 ATS. Make the play on Mississippi.

The Oklahoma Sooners have had a lot of great QB play for several years running. I don't think Jackson Arnold is on that list this year. His numbers are severely below the average of the competition he has faced in 3 games this season. That will change some with a couple WR's coming off injury. Tennessee is legit. Tennessee is a bona fide National Champion contender. The Vols are well above average on both sides of the ball. This will be the best offense and defense the Sooners have seen all year, and they aren't up for the task here. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Liberty Flames have been 6-6 or better in their 6 seasons since becoming a member of the FBS. They went 10-1 in 2020, and 13-1 last year. This program has become known to the betting public as a very good mid-major team. The perception is higher coming off a 13-1 season especially starting 3-0 this year. The Flames however may not have their best offensive player in RB Quinton Cooley. He injured his back last game. The Flames have played Campbell, New Mexico St. and UTEP. They are -46.5 points below the line set in their 3 games, and have seriously under-performed, and I don't think this team is up to meeting expectations. East Carolina has allowed fewer than 13ppg. East Carolina also fits in a 59-37-3 ATS situation (13-5 ATS lately). Make the play on East Carolina.

Houston hasn't been as good as they were winning 12 games in 2021, and slipped to 4-8 last year. They haven't had fewer wins since 2004 (taking out the covid season where they played just 8 games and won 3). The Cougars lost to UNLV 27-7, and it looked like a horrible loss, but UNLV is off a win at Kansas. The Cougars then went out and just missed beating Oklahoma as a 4 TD dog. They lost 16-12. They blew out Rice 33-7. Cincinnati is usually a strong defensive team, but far from it this season. Houston has a very good defense and this game looks winnable for the Cougars. Make the play on Houston.

It is tough for a team coming off a Sunday overtime game, and then come back for a Thursday game. Little time to prepare, and fatigue in question. A team that played an overtime game on Sunday and now has to come back and play a Thursday game (prior to week 16), are 1-23 ATS. That applies against New England. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The Chicago Bears fell behind 17-0 to Tennessee, and could simply not move the ball all game. Caleb Williams debut was a total bust as he went 14-29 for 93 yards. The Bears rushed 22 times for 84 yards, so the offense generated 177 total yards. The Bears blocked a punt and returned it for a TD, and then got a pick-6 for the win 24-17. So you can be sure the Bears offense looked awful. That being said, this is the NFL and contrarian is usually the way to go. History proves that time and again. Teams that win as a favorite and gained 200 yards or less are 35-20-1 ATS in the NFL when playing to a line of less than +8. Take the Chicago Bears.

The Pittsburgh Steelers said they consider themselves a running team, and they proved it in week 1 as they ran 41 times, more than any other team. The Steelers however have been haunted playing non-division games after a win where they are 9-32-1 ATS. If they line up against a less than .400 team they are a woeful 4-20 ATS in that same spot. Denver has always had a huge home field advantage at altitude. That serves them well in the first 2 weeks of the season when opponents are still getting in shape. Denver is 42-9 SU in their last 51 at home in the first 2 weeks of the season. They are also 17-3-3 ATS as long as they are not favored by 3 or more points in the same spot. Make the play on Denver.

The Chicago Bears fell behind 17-0 to Tennessee, and could simply not move the ball all game. Caleb Williams debut was a total bust as he went 14-29 for 93 yards. The Bears rushed 22 times for 84 yards, so the offense generated 177 total yards. The Bears blocked a punt and returned it for a TD, and then got a pick-6 for the win 24-17. So you can be sure the Bears offense looked awful. That being said, this is the NFL and contrarian is usually the way to go. History proves that time and again. Teams that win as a favorite and gained 200 yards or less are 35-20-1 ATS in the NFL when playing to a line of less than +8. Take the Chicago Bears.

This game fits a situation that is 111-68 ATS and the play is on New England.

The Cleveland Browns looked awful last week. Watson did nothing, but there is always next week. Many have soured on the Browns, so there is line value here. There is also this: Play on a week 2 team if they were home last week and away this week if they lost last game by 10 or more points as long as the line is less than 13 points. These teams are 23-2 ATS and the Browns qualify. Jacksonville is in a horrible situation. Play against a home favorite that lost their last game in games 1-4 as long as the line is less than -4. These teams are 83-144-11 ATS. Make the play on Cleveland.

UConn scored 63 points against Merrimack, which is the most points they have scored in their history. The Huskies are playing on offense at a much faster pace this season, and there games should turn out to be higher scoring. Duke is also doing the same. This is also backed by a 312-241 system to the over. Make the play over the total.

Troy has the type of program where they have a few good years, then kind of tank as they rebuild again. Troy is 23-5 the last 2 years, but have started 0-2 and has under performed considerably. This is one of those Troy rebuilding years. Iowa is going to be pissed as they lost to Iowa St. 20-19 on a late FG. The Iowa defense is top 5 in the country, and should hold Troy out of the end-zone. Iowa has a new offensive coordinator and Iowa will move the ball freely here. Troy fits a situation based on 0-2 teams that have severely under performed which is 21-40-2 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The Oregon Ducks and the Oregon St. Beavers have been playing each other for a long time. This is one of the best rivalries in college football. Oregon has not looked like the team everyone thought they would be. They struggled vs Idaho, and had to come from behind vs. Boise St. to win it late. They lost the battle at the line of scrimmage as Boise St. out-gained them. The ground game is usually a telling sign when teams meet and Oregon ranks in the bottom 10% in running the ball this season. Meanwhile the Beavers are running wild averaging over 300 yards a game, good for a top 5 rating. It may be a surprise but Oregon St. is 19-15-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings. This is Oregon St.'s biggest game of the year and it is at home where they are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games here. They are also 16-3 ATS in their last 19 as well. Make the play on Oregon St.

Boston College got hat looked like a huge win in their opener beating highly ranked Florida St.28-13.Florida St. is now 0-22 to start the season. Missouri has bettors taking notice as they have yet to be scored upon but to see reality those games came against Murray St. and Buffalo. Boston College has proven they are better than expected, and the resistance Missouri will get in this game, neither of the first two games has prepared them for it. Make the play on Boston College.

LSU looks like a very mediocre team so far. They were beaten by USC, and then last week they only led 24-221 vs. Nichols St. before pulling away. South Carolina looked awful beating Old Dominion by just 4 points. The Gamecocks came back strong as they impressively beat Kentucky 31-6 as a 9.5 point dog. The Gamecocks will be in the LSU QB's face all game as they have 10 sacks already and this will be Garrett Nussmeier's first road game. Several strong betting systems favoring the Gamecocks as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

Florida St. was supposed to be a top 5 team coming into this season, but their 0-2 start has been hard to swallow for fans. The offense has averaged just 17ppg. Memphis has allowed just 17 points in their two games against subpar teams. I think the winner here scores somewhere in the 20s which would max out the total high point at 57. I don't see both teams able to push this one over the total, and with a game situation that is 119-71 to the under, I will make the play on this one under the total.

Arizona played with little energy in last week's game vs. Northern Arizona. That has quickly help bettors forget they put up 61 points in their opener. Tulane ran over Kansas St. last week. They were significantly out-played, but were saved by a 60 yard 4th quarter fumble return TD. QB Avery Johnson carries a lot of issues into this game that he may not be as good as they hoped. I think the line here is very inflated, and I would not be surprised if Arizona wins. Make the play on Arizona.

The Dallas Cowboys offense might regress this season. Dallas lost All-Pro LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz and the Cleveland defense is certainly good enough to exploit those new weaknesses. I think the Cleveland offense is going to be much better with Deshaun Watson healthy, as despite his detractors, his numbers are better than Flacco's, and the Browns brought in Ken Doresy who is a great match for Watson, as he loves running from a spread offense. The Bills offense was much better with Dorsey calling plays than Joe Brady. The Browns may have the best offensive line in the NFL with Jack Conklin coming back, to add to a pair of all-pro players on the line. Dallas played horrible on the road last year as they won games vs. low level teams. Their 4 road wins were against Carolina, Washington, the Giants and Chargers, to finish 4-5. The Browns went 8-1 at home last season, and 7-1-1 ATS. I like Cleveland in this one.

The Atlanta Falcons will surely have an upgrade at QB behind Kirk Cousins. Cousins will have the luxury of passing behind the 2nd best offensive line in terms of pass blocking in the league last season, and return all 5 this season. This will be a battle in the trenches as the Pittsburgh Steelers have what could be the best pass rushing unit in the NFL lead by TJ Watt and his 19 sacks from a year ago. I think they are a wash playing against each other. What I have eyes on is since 1996 a team that won 6,7, or 8 games last season are 168-199-3 to the under. The Steelers have played a lot of conservative football on the road as they are 45-18-2 to the under in their last 65 road games. Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

The Chicago Bears have been looking for a QB for a long time. They used the number 1 overall draft pick to select Caleb Williams. The Bears fan base is excited, and probably should be, but Williams first game is going to be difficult. Tennessee does a lot of things wrong, but they upgraded their secondary substantially, with good depth as well, and they are capable of shutting down the Bears highly regarded receiving corp. The Titans can also generate pressure, so this might not be a good debut for Williams. There have been lots of optimism before him, but in almost every case the QB under performed.The first overall pick in the draft as a starter in game 1 is 2-21 ATS, including 0-14-1 ATS in the last 15. Make the play on Tennessee.

This pick is based on a long term inning situation. The result is Ohio.U fits into a 196-326-6 ATS situation. That situation is also 8-3-1 ATS in game . I like South Alabama in this one.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on Temple.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on Michigan St.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Georgia Bulldogs have not lost a regular season game since November 7th, 2020. That has them at 40 straight regular season wins. That streak will not end on Saturday. Georgia is looked upon by bettors as a team that will absolutely light up a team like Tennessee Tech. History has weighed in on this and here are the little known facts. When Georgia plays as a -2.5 to -11.5 favorite they are 101-68-1 ATS. These are the games you see the full Georgia effort in. However, we see a team with a different motivation when they play the supreme cupcakes on their schedule. When Georgia is favored by 40 or more points they are a woeful 3-16-1 ATS, which includes 0-11-1 ATS since 2016. The betting public sees this game from a whole different set of lights, as 73% of the public are backing Georgia, as is usually the case. Make the play on Tennessee Tech.

The Memphis Tigers easily won last week 40-0 over an FCS team in North Alabama. Memphis has upgraded their defensive coordinator, and played better than the statistical match up would indicate, but hard to have a good take away on a game that was not going to be competitive. The Memphis offense is pass oriented and they spent a lot of last week putting the ball in the air. Troy is not even close to what they were a year ago, and lost as a 7.5 point home favorite to Nevada. Perhaps more ominous is the weather for this game. While it will be sunny and in the 70s, the winds are expected to be sustained at 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, so not ideal conditions for a team that likes to pass, and take shots downfield. That will force more running plays, which isn't what Memphis wants to do. I think the total is too high here, and will make the play under the total.

There is just so much distance between these teams. Akron has fallen on hard times as the Zips since the start of the 2019 season own a woeful 7-48 record. They are 0-8 vs. Power Conference teams, which includes 5 games vs. the Big-10, and 3 vs. the SEC. The zips have been outscored in those games 392-62 or by 49-7.8 or an average of 41.2ppg. Not really much else to say. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Michigan Wolverines will have their biggest test of the season on Saturday at noon vs. Texas. Just some numbers to throw out there for food for thought. Michigan has held all of their last 24 opponents to 27 or fewer points at home in the Big House. They have also scored 229 or more points in all but 1 of their last 17 here. Those numbers put a lot of distance between themselves and Texas here, more than I think what a fair line looks like in this one. They have also won 22 straight home games. They are not a home dog often, but when they are a home dog from 5.5 points and up they are 5-2 ATS. That goes back to 1995, so this is just the 8th time in almost 30 years they have been this big of a dog. The numbers shout wolverines in this one. Make the play on Michigan.

Miami, O. won the MAC Championship last season with a top notch defense that allowed fewer than 16 points per game. They might not match those numbers this season, but the defense is still going to be strong. Northwestern saw their offense held to 14 or fewer points 6 times last year. This is a team that ran one of the slowest offenses last season, and new Northwestern offensive coordinator Lujan comes over from South Dakota St. where he won 2 FCS Championships. His offense runs an even slower pace that Northwestern, so plays are going to be limited, and I think both defenses will be the best side of the ball. Make the play under the total.

The Pittsburgh Panthers struggles from a season ago can be chalked up to QB play. Their two main QB`s completed less than 50% of their passes, at just a woeful 5.5 yards per attempt. There was some foreshadowing of what was to come when Nate Yarnell took over at QB late last season. He completed almost 2/3 of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt. I think Pitt is quite underrated, and they always have a high level defense. Yarnell was a top 5 QB coming out of college and the upside is high this season. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

I think the Georgia Bulldogs will be playing with a huge chip on its shoulder this season. They open at home with Clemson, and return a Heisman hopeful QB. This is a huge game as one of these teams will be 0-1 and may have to win out to get a good spot in the National Championship race that now includes 12 teams. Clemson returns just 4 starters on defense, and could really struggle here. I think Georgia is the #1 team in the country this year, and competitive games bring out their best. Georgia is now 40-15 ATS in their last 55 games when not posted as a 21 point favorite or more. Make the play on Georgia.

Penn St. has vowed to take advantage of the skill, athleticism, and speed of their talented WR core. The Nittany Lions have a measure of protection for taking chances as the defense is going to among the best in the nation once again.Will that be enough? It is one thing to say it, but you have to do it. West Virginia has a tough and talented front 5, and a secondary that is very talented. The Mountaineers have a strong pass rush so this is no picnic for Penn St. This game could go either way. I will back West Virginia in this one.

I like the situation here for Wisconsin. They have always played their best football at home vs. the MAC. The Badgers are 25-0 SU and 16-9 ATS against the MAC as a home favorite. MAC opponents have scored an average of 7.2ppg against Wisconsin in this situation. I also have several situations in favor of the Badgers in this one. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Sunday January 28th, 2024

Game of the Year Side Play · [322] San Francisco 49ERS
 Mr. East   Sun Jan 28th, 2024 6:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEARExpert Analysis: The NFL Conference Championship game will have the Detroit Lions facing the San Francisco 49ers. There is one thing most bettors have their eyes on, and that is the status of Deebo Samuel. Samuel injured his shoulder against Green Bay, and has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The Niners have played without Samuel 17 times and are 8-9 SU in those games, including all 3 in their 3 game losing streak. The 17 games have seen them average 24.2ppg, while they are 53-23 SU when he plays, and average 26.8ppg with him. While it is a short sample size you can say he is worth 2.6ppg to the offense. I think the focal point on his value is legit, no one is talking about Jared Goff, and there is considerable value when you take a look beyond the overall numbers. Goff has played his 2 playoff games at home where he has thrown for 3,314 total yards at 69% and a yards per attempt average of 8.1ypa. He has 25 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at his numbers on the road and on grass there is a stark difference. He has thrown for 1,261 yards and completed just 63.6% at 6.5 yards per attempt, with 5 TDs and 4 INTs. His QB rating is 105.5 on turf and 82 on grass. That is going from All-Pro to bottom 5. He has been sacked 15 times on 410 drop backs on turf, and 15 times on 195 drop backs on grass. This season the Lions averaged 18.8ppg on grass, and 30.1ppg on artificial surface. While everyone is focused on Samuels 2.6ppg net value, no one is talking about Goff`s huge difference of 30.1ppg vs. 18.8ppg or 11.3ppg! The Lions have also given up 3.6ppg more on the road, which is probably more reflective of more time on the field due to a vastly diminished offense. The Lions have played 1 game on grass since losing to Baltimore 38-6 in week 7, and that was a 28-13 loss to the Bears in week 14. The public is storming the Lions at 71%, yet the line has risen to 7.5. That usually doesn`t work out well. My playoff game of the year is on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions got a huge win, and are no longer the team that has gone the longest without a playoff win. I think they had a lot of pressure on them, but the electric crowd, and Jered Goff great performance, and being able to run the last 4:07 off the clock to secure a 24-23 win was huge for this team. Since November 6th of last year only 2 teams have a better record than the Lions. (SF, KC), but they are not held with as high esteem as those teams. Goff ran his record to 22-0 SU when favored by fewer than 7 points. Tampa Bay's win over Philadelphia didn't say a lot as the Eagles finished the season at 1-6. The Buc's 6 other games vs. a team that made the playoffs was 1-5, and did not beat a team with more than 10 wins other than Philadelphia. I think Detroit will play a lot looser in this game, and they shut the Buc's meager offense down earlier in the season 20-6. The situations for this game are split, so I see no edge either way in that regard. The Lions have arrived, and they will take out the Buc's at home in convincing fashion. Make the play on Detroit.

The Houston Texans came out of the wildcard round with a lot of bettors ready to jump on the bandwagon. C.J. Stroud is a special player, and has done more as a rookie than any QB we have seen in a long time. I see a lot of talk that if he could carve up the top defense of Cleveland, then he will do the same in Baltimore. I'm not so sure of that. Cleveland had a strong defense, but were vulnerable as well, and let's compare the vast difference between the Browns and Ravens to get that off the table. Baltimore allowed a league low 26 total TDs this season, Cleveland allowed 44. Baltimore allowed 6 rushing TDs, Cleveland 15, and the Browns allowed more TD's in the air (27), than Baltimore allowed in any form all season. Baltimore has an elite MVP caliber QB and the Ravens average 6.1 yards per play on the season, and an elite 6.6 yards per play at home. The defense allows just 4.9 yards per play. The Houston offense as lethal at home in the dome of fast turf with no weather issues. They scored 26.6ppg. When they took to the road they averaged 19.5ppg which by NFL standards is below average. They are negative in yards per play on the road from the line of scrimmage. Baltimore is going to put a lot of pressure on Stroud as the Ravens recorded 60 sacks on the season. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, and while it won't be snowing for the game it will be extremely windy. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH sustained winds, with gusts into the 30's. The Houston offense is predicated on the deep ball, but that won't be here with the wind. The betting public is all over the Texans, and that usually doesn't work out well. Make the play on Baltimore.

There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.

This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.

Dallas looked like they were going to be a wildcard team, until Philadelphia took a nose-dive. The Cowboys became the 19th straight NFC East Champion without a repeat from the previous season. Dallas has a roster of stars, and are built for a long playoff run. You can make that case for each of the last 3 years, as Dallas has won 12 or more games in each of them. This team for one reason or another just doesn't get over the top. They have to play a team that arguably has played as good as anyone over the 2nd half of the season. The Packers are as healthy as they have been all season, and the key to their success has been the return of Aaron Jones, the emergence of Jordan Love, and a cast of young receivers that are growing up quickly. Green Bay was 3-6 and questions surrounded them if Love was the QB of the future. He proceeded to answer that leading Green Bay to a 6-2 finish by throwing 18 TDs to just 1 INT. The Packer offense improved by +5.6ppg. The last 3 games, with a healthy Aaron Jones back on the field Green Bay has rushed for 154 yards per game, Love has been even better, and the offense climbed +2.2 more points, for a total gain of +7.8ppg. The defense has had to spend less time on the field, and after allowing 21ppg, is now allowing 16.3ppg since Jones returned. Green Bay is also 9-1-1 ATS entering a playoff game at less than .700. Dallas is just 1-9 SU vs. Green Bay in the last 10 meetings dating back to the 2009 season, and Dallas was favored in 6 of the 10 games! These teams are much closer than it looks. While they are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage of .430 or less during the streak, and winning those games by an average score of 37.4 to 15.4, they have failed to cover 2 of the 3 games this year with a line of -7 or higher. A team that went 8-0 at home in the regular season is just 9-16 ATS in their first playoff game, and 1-6 ATS vs, a team less than .625. Make the play on Green Bay.

The playoffs have seen a lot of very cold game days. The Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be in a top 10 NFL coldest games. Game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, and it will likely dip below 0 before the game comes to an end. The Chiefs have a home field advantage, but that will widen significantly Saturday Night. The Dolphins bring an 0-10 record into a game with a kickoff temperature of 40 or less, while the Chiefs are 9-1 in such games at home. Worse for the Dolphins is their average margin in the 10 games has been -17ppg. Tua is 0-4 at 45 degrees or less, with 5 TDs and $ INTs, and a passer rating of 77.6. The Dolphins have other problems, as they have 20 players on the injury report, and had to sign 5 players this week just to fill out the roster. Mostert and Waddle were both limited in practice, and if they can even play, neither will be as effective. The Dolphins won just 1 game all season vs. a team with a winning record, have a lot to overcome here. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.

Monday January 8th, 2024

NCAA FB Top Side Play · [287] Washington Huskies   +4.5   -110

 Mr. East   Mon Jan 8th, 2024 7:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 1/8
Expert Analysis: It is fitting that a pair of 14-0 teams will face each other for the NCAAF National Championship. It comes down to the best defense Washington will have faced all season vs, the best offense Michigan will have faced all-season. Looking back at 2022, Michigan brought a defense into their playoff game vs, an elite offense in TCU and was promptly torched for 51 points. That defense allowed just 13.4ppg. The PAC-12 is all about offense. The Big-10 conference games this season averaged just 45.5 total points per game. The Pac-12 at 57.8ppg. Clearly, these teams have faced different paths to get here. Washington gave up 32ppg against the top 5 offenses they faced this season, which had an average rank of #4 in the nation. The Michigan offense ranks at #12. The Washington offense vs. the top 4 defenses they faced put up no fewer than 34 points in any of the 4 games, and those defenses ranked on average #16. The Michigan defense did not face a top 10 offense all season, but against the top 4 offenses they did face they allowed 18ppg and those offenses ranked an average of #32. This looks a lot like the numbers from the TCU game a couple of years ago. Michigan didn`t beat Alabama the game was tied after 60 minutes due to Alabama miscues from the center position. Milroe was sacked 5 times which was an integral part of the Michigan win. Michigan ranks #20 in sacks per game at 2.7 per contest, but the Washington offensive line is very strong at pass blocking, and Penix is quick to make decisions and get the ball out, and was sacked just 10 times in 14 games. Like TCU a couple of years ago, Washington has weapons all over the field in the passing game. Polk and Odunze have combined for 2,675 receiving yards and 22 TDs on the season, and are generating 17.5 yards per catch. Washington has 5 different receivers who have caught passes good for 45 yards or more. Dillon Johnson was injured last game, but all indications are he is ready to go for this one. He has provided 1,162 yards on just 222 carries, and 16 TDs. He is a threat that will keep Michigan honest, and prevent a light box so they can`t commit extra players to slow down the passing attack. The Michigan offense has played 7 games vs. top 20 defenses, but that includes Nebraska who is rated #8, and the reason is the lack of quality offenses in the Big-10. Rutgers and Maryland are in that mix as well, and none of those teams would be seen with those rankings in the Pac-12. Nuetral site games with a line of -4.5 to -7 show the favorite at 145-169-8 ATS, and cover just 45% of the time. Specifically at -4.5 they are 21-33 ATS. both cases show an average line value of 2 points for the dog, so this one should be -2.5 based on historical numbers, and at 4.5 it crosses key numbers of 3, and 4. The 2 points here, because of where the line is has more value crossing a pair of key numbers. The line value on the dog when a pair of teams meet that are both 11-0 or better rises to 2.40 for the dog. McCarthy has been very efficient in his last 5 games, but Michigan has become a run oriented tea. He has attempted just 109 passes for 751 total yards. They have run 193 times and passed just 109 times. Washington may come out heavy in the box, and make McCarthy throw more, which he is capable of doing. Harbaugh has been out-coached facing unbeaten teams where he is 11-21-1 ATS. A team that beats Alabama by 7 or more points in their previous game is 10-20 ATS in their next game if posted as a favorite. (0-6 ATS if favored). I like Washington in this one.

Michigan -1.5

This game is going to come down to the Iowa ultra elite defense vs a Tennessee offense that averages 31.5ppg. Tennessee faced 4 elite defenses this season and it did not go well. They scored 20 vs. Texas A&M, 20 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Missouri, and 10 vs. Georgia, or an average of 14.8ppg. Iowa has a better defense than all of those teams, as well as one of the best special teams units in college football. The issue in this game for Iowa is Superstar Cooper Dejean will not play for Iowa which is a huge loss, on special teams as well. Iowa's top 2 opponents Michigan (26), Penn St. (31), scored the most points, and that was with DeJean. Iowa is going to have to score some points to cover this game and it will take more than the 12ppg they have averaged in their las 7 games. Iowa did not score against Penn St, or Michigan. Make the play on Tennessee.

Oregon comes into this game with 2 losses, both to playoff team Washington by 3 points. This team is almost entirely in tact, and they are coming to play, so an "A" effort is likely. Liberty played one of the 5 easiest schedules in the country. Looking for a quality win? There are none. The Oregon speed, physicality, size, depth, and physicality are all much better than Liberty. My line on this game comes up at Oregon -21.5, and I will play the line value here. Make the play on Oregon.

Most of the talk regarding this Bowl is LSU QB Daniels opting out. He is certainly worth a lot, but otherwise the LSU team is mostly in tact. What most don`t realize is LSU has an elite running attack. They average 6.3 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allow 4.3. Wisconsin averaged just 16.8ppg over its last 7 games. LSU has deadly receivers with Malik Nabers (86 catches, 1,546 yards, 14 touchdowns), Brian Thomas Jr. (60-1,079-15) and Kyren Lacy (24-463-7) could give UWs secondary fits. They won`t afford to load up the box and allow these pass catches space. Lost in the Daniels opt out is Wisconsin will be missing their top RB, top 2 WRs, and center. A limited offense is going to be further limited. Make the play on LSU.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.

With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense.  Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.

Penn St. has still not been able to get over the top in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. seem to fight it out every season, and Penn St. stands alone as the next best team. The Nitany Lions own the best defense in NCAAF this season and held 9 of 12 opponents to 15 or fewer points and even the elite offenses of Ohio St. (20 points, and Michigan 24), had lots of trouble moving the ball vs. this team. Their other 3 opponents averaged 9.3ppg. Coach Franklin's Penn St. team is 40-14 ATS off a conference win, and overall his team is 95-65-2 ATS. The Ole Miss Rebels have a very potent attack but it was stopped dead by elite defenses (10 points vs. Alabama, and 17 vs. Georgia), and they face a better defense in this one. Make the play on Penn St.

This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.

This looks like a bad spot for Ohio St. but a Bowl team that was ranked in the top 7 to start the season and their Bowl opponent is currently in the top 10, and 1 other factor are 17-2 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Ohio St.

A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.

A lot of action will be on Memphis as they are playing at home. The history books don't show it that way as a Bowl home team is 19-21 ATS. Iowas St. will lose RB's Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton to the transfer portal, but replacement RB Abu Sama III ran for a very impressive 276 yards and 3 TDs vs, Kansas St. last game. Iowa St. has a gem in freshman QB Rocco Becht. Becht set freshman records at Iowa St. for completions, TDs, and passing yards. Remember Brock Purdy started full time at Iowa St. and had a great freshman season. Iowa St. has a strong defense that can limit the Memphis offense, while Iowa St. should have their way vs the lousy Memphis defense. I like Iowa St.

Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.

NCAAF Bowl teams that are off 4 or more SU and ATS wins are 35-63 ATS (3-10 ATS since 2016, and 16-30 ATS as a favorite). Clemson has 4 situations for this game that are a combined 102-204 ATS. Make the play on Kentucky

Since the start of the 2014 season a Pac-12 Bowl team that is facing a team off a win and the total is greater than 52 is 3-26 ATS failing to cover by 9 points per game. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Once again we have a team allowing 40 or more points prior to their Bowl game, which in a December Bowl is 126-170-4 ATS, and plays against Kansas St. Make the play on NC St.

This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.