avg total: 45.0

Make the play on the under

The Florida St. Seminoles have played a tough schedule to get to 3-3. This team despite the look is 1.2 yards a play better than the schedule of opponents they have played. They suffered 2 of their 3 losses to Boise St. and Clemson. Wake Forest lost for the 1st time this season to Louisville to fall to 5-1 on the season. That puts them in a huge letdown spot. Any team starting 5-0 or better and suffered their 1st loss of the season in their previous game by -14 points or fewer and face a team greater than .250 but less than.670 are 41-82-2 ATS. QB Jamie Newman left the last game with a shoulder injury, and may not play, but if he does he won't be 100%.

Virginia comes into this game with the better record 4-2 as North Carolina is 3-3. Don't be fooled by the records as North Carolina has played one of the nation's most difficult schedules. They have impressive wins over SC and Miami, Fla. They also lost by 1 point vs unbeaten Clemson, and 1 point to unbeaten Appalachian St. Their 3rd loss was by 6 points to 1 loss Wake Forest. This team is vastly improved since last season. Virginia Tech has lost to BC and Duke and 3 of their 4 wins were against Furman, Old Dominion, and FCS team Rhode Island. Despite the weak schedule, the Hokies are average on both sides of the ball. The NC defense and offense are both significantly above average despite the tough schedule. Tech has the better record coming into this game, but if they played the NC schedule they would likely be 1-5, and if NC played their schedule there is a very good chance they would be 6-0. Make the play on North Carolina.

The Boston College Eagles suffered a huge setback last week when starting QB Anthony Brown went down with a leg injury. He will be lost for the season. His replacement Dennis Grosel went 9-24 vs Louisville last week at 4.6 yards an attempt. Brown was generating 8.1 and had 9 RDs and just 2 INTs. The Eagles passing attack is not only going to take a hit, but the AJ Dillon led running game as well. The Wolfpack is going to load the box to dare NC to throw into their well-above-average secondary. This could lead to many 3 and outs and turnovers. The BC defense is horrible and while NC State is no better than average on offense, they should be able to move the ball against BC, as they are probably going to be on the field a lot more than usual further exposing them. Don't think the odds-makers have adjusted enough for Brown's injury. Make the play on NC State.

  Top Side Play · [276] Green Bay Packers
    Mon Oct 14th, 2019 8:15pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

The Cleveland Browns were perceived as a team ready to break out in 2019. They have a young promising and talented QB in Baker Mayfield, and a pair of WR among the best in the league in OBJ and Landry, and a defense considered on the rise. Those expectations have really fallen short as the Browns are facing teams that are coming after Mayfield forcing him into way too many mistakes. Mayfield is suffering from a severe loss of confidence as he has just 4 TDs and 8 UNRs on the season and a QB rating of a woeful 68.5. The Browns are 2-3 with the 3 losses by a combined 65 points, and are finding themselves out of too many games. Moreover, the offense has scored 13 or fewer points in 3 of 5 contests. The Achilles heel of the defense is stopping the run as teams are just playing power football against them as the Browns run stop unit has allowed 448 yards on the ground over the last 2 games. needing to put another player in the nox vs Seattle QB Russell Wilson is trouble, as Wilson is having an MVP season thus far completing 73% of his passes at 9 yards per attempt, and 12 TDs to 0 INTs. Pete Carroll loved yo pound the rock, and that will set yp play action and success against a Browns struggling defense. make the play on Seattle.

Expert Analysis: The Jacksonville Jaguars thought that Nick Goles would stabilize the QB situation, but he was injured early on. That presented an opportunity for Gardner Minshew and he sure has taken advantage of that. Minshew has a 105.6 QB rating to fo along with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. The Jacksonville offense is a lot better than the points they have scored. They are a full yard better per play than the average of the defenses they have gone against. Their 2-3 record sets up well in public opinion vs the 4-1 Saints. The defense has struggled but the return of elite CB Jogn Ramsey comes just in time to blanket Michael Thomas. The Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 31 straight games, but Minshew`s stellar play at QB has advanced the rushing game over the last 2 weeks and Leonard Fournette may end that streak. Jacksonville`s 3 losses saw them lose the turnover battle 0-6, and that has more to do with bad luck, than being a bad team. Teddy Bridgewater is off a big game, but his overall numbers do not impress me when you dig down into his reality. He will face a lot of pressure in this game. The public loves the Saints here, and that enhances the fact that they are in for a disappointment. Make the play on Jacksonville.

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 163-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

Saturday October 12th, 2019

  Top Side Play · [193] Charlotte 49ers
    Sat Oct 12th, 2019 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: The San Jose St. Spartans head to Nevada to take on the Wolfpack. There are some similarities between these teams. Both enter the game at 3-2, and each has knocked off a P5 team, with Nevada taking down Purdue 34-31 and San Jose St. taking down Arkansas 31-24. The Spartan`s win was eyeopening as they were a 3 TD underdog and went for over 500 yards for the game. Coach Brent Brennan`s team is a ball-hawking defense that has turned the opponent over 15 times in 5 games. San Jose St. was 3-22 SU over its last 2 seasons but signs that Brennan has this team on an up-tick were seen late last season when the Spartans closed the season 4-1-1 ATS and they are 4-1 ATS this season and are clearly a team under the radar. Senior QB Josh Love has played all 4 years and started the last 3 and has become very good. He has reached career highs with 62% completions, and 7.8 yards per attempt. He has thrown just 1 INT in 181 attempts on the season. Nevada has one of the worst pass defenses in the country allowing 8.6 yards per attempt and I expect Love to have a huge game. The Nevada offense is also very weak averaging just 4.6 yards per play on the season. Nevada is making a QB change as Malik Henry a JUCO transfer will be under center as they try to infuse a sluggish offense. I like the matchup here with Love vs Henry at QB as well as the defensive edge by the Spartans. Make the play on San Jose St.

The Thursday Night Football game between the NY Giants and NE Patriots is a complete mismatch. The game will be  played in rainy and windy conditions. The New England offense will not be hampered, as Tom Brady is a great bad-weather QB, and seldom does he throw downfield anymore. The Giants offense will be missing Barkley, Sheppard, and Engram. Those 3 players have accounted for 65% of the Giants offense thus far. The Pats have 11 INTs on the season and they will be stacking the box and force Daniel Jones into the air, as the Pats have yet to allow a passing TD this season. Moreover, the Giants are going t have to throw the ball falling behind, and the conditions are not favorable for Jones to do so, especially missing so many offensive weapons. Coach Belichick thrives as the season moves forward as his teams are 140-85 ATS after the first month of the season, including 52-25 ATS in October games. Thursday home favorites of -11 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS providing their opponent is not winless or unbeaten. The Pat's and Belichick destroy rookie or 2nd-year QBs as they have won 18 straight against them. Look for the Pats to cruise to another blowout win. Pats also are 13-2 ATS from -15 to -19. Make the play on New England.

The Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers are a pair of teams on the rise. This will be a good test for each team. I'm not as impressed with Baker Mayfield as most as he is wildly inconsistent and overall his numbers would rank him 28th in the league as a QB. San Francisco behind the play-action strong offense of Coach Shannahan and QB Jimmy Garappolo has been strong. Garappolo has the 2nd most play-action pass attempts in the league where he completes 85.7% of his passes at 15.4 yards per attempt. The Niners use olay action on 36% of all dropbacks at 9.9 yards per pass. There are many favorables in this game for the Niners. A MNF favorite off a win and 14 fays rest is 12-0-1 ATS.

Also MNF home teams greater than .800 vs a team .500 or better with a line from -2.5 to -9 and a total greater than 37 are 33-5-3 ATS

The Niners have also been king of MNF:

That is 29-4 ATS from week 3 through week 16.

Make the play on San Francisco.

 Kansas City is one of the loudest places to play in the entire NFL. It helps elevate the Chiefs below-average defense, and at the same time, it tends to lower the offensive output, but not in the way you would think. here is what I mean. Since taking over at QB at the beginning of last season Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs have averaged 32.2ppg at home, but 37.1 on the road. The biggest reason is they have led on average by 12ppg at home. This tends to lead to a shorter game, with the big plays kept off the field. The Chiefs defense allows 31.2ppg on the road but just 20.2ppg at home. That is 12 points different. Overall the Chiefs road games average 68.3ppg and home games just 52.4ppg. A 16ppg differential. The reason is similar, they average leading at the half on the road by an average of just 2.6ppg, almost a full 10 points less than at home. This is what has caused a hidden value on the total in this contest. Moreover, 8 of the Chiefs 11 home games have seen 57 or fewer points scored between both teams. Make the play on the under.

Expert Analysis: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys each lost for the 1st time last week. That should man both these teams come in hungry for a win. While not many want to suggest that Aaron Rodgers is in decline, the numbers say so. Rodgers is just 13-13-1 SU in his last 27 starts, many still see him as an ultra-elite QB. The numbers over the last 3 years suggest he has become ordinary. That has led to Green Bay compiling an 0-8 SU record on the road vs a team .444 or better. 91-7 ATS with the average being a 10 point loss). he has been shaky on the road where he is 40-44 SU in his career (much worse lately). His dome record is 12-14, and trailing with 4 minutes or less left in the game he has 9 TDs and 10 INTs. The Packers are going to be at a huge disadvantage when Dallas runs. The Pack has allowed 523 yards on the ground on 98 carries the last 3 weeks, and Dallas runs the ball well, especially against a team that can`t stop it. Dallas os 10-0 SU in their last 10 home games if they run the ball 24 times. (7-1-2 ATS). The Packers have no ground game at all and have not had a run over 15 yards this season. The Packer offense is hurting, as Brian Bulaga is dealing with an injured shoulder, and may not play and Devante Adams, the only real receiving threat Green Bay possesses, may be out with a toe injury. Dallas has held 3 of 4 teams to less than 300 yards. Dallas is 10-1 SU at home since the start of last season, while the Pack is 2-9 SU on the road in its last 11, with one of the wins in overtime vs the hapless Jets. Make the play on Dallas.

This game is backed by one of just a few systems that I blindly bet because it has been that good. The situation is 126-53-2 ATS and the play is in the UNDER.

Expert Analysis: The Chicago Bears and the Oakland Raiders will meet in London. They will do so without QB Mitchell Trubisky who has been declared out with a shoulder injury. Chase Daniel will get the call, and he may actually be an upgrade as Trybisky has struggled. The Bears don`t score much, but they don`t have to as their defense is rock solid allowing 11.3ppg and none of their first 4 opponents have scored more than 15. Oakland last played at home on September 15 and won`t play home again until November 3. So after 2 straight weeks playing in the Central and Eastern time-zones, they will play in England. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raiders. The Bears have allowed just 61.5 rushing yards a game on the season. Khalil Mack may have a big say on defense this week vs his former team. Think Chicago will pull oit a comfortable 10 point win here. Make the play on Chicago.

It does not seem long ago when the Atlanta Falcons were up 28-3 vs New England in the Super Bowl and lost. It seems the team has never recovered from that. their season has started 1-3 and it is on the line in Houston on Sunday. They know 1-4 would pretty much end any chances of recovering. The good news is all is not as bad as it seems. Atlanta is above average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Turnovers have played a role, while Houston has forced a turnover in 17 straight games, and has already forced 8 fumbles this season. Turnovers are mostly random, and it actually better looking at high turnover teams in the NFL, as they are usually better than they look. Houston is not issue free. They are not defending well, and Watson is under siege almost every snap. The Texans allowed 62 sacks a year ago and 18 already this season. Houston has played 4 games and the total margin in all 4 games totals 16. Every game is close, so 5 points with a desperate team trying to save their season is a good take. There is one sports betting adage that says, "The team in need, is the team indeed." It truly applies here. Make the play on Atlanta.

Georgia St. opened the season with a huge upset at Tennessee as a 26 point underdog. That big win has been tainted by the fact that Tennessee is not a good team. That was on full display as they have since gone to W. Michigan and lost by almost 50 points and barely escaped FCS opponent Furman at home by 6. What interests me here is Arkansas St. QB Logan Bonner was injured and last week former Alabama recruit and QB Layne Hatcher was better than Bonner last week putting up freat numbers vs Troy in an upset win where the Red Wolves scored 50. The Georgia St. pass defense is really poor so another big game by Hatcher is in the cards. The Arkansas St. defense is 0.4 yards better than the offenses of their schedule of opponents, and I don't see Georgia St. being able to keep up. Arkansas St. has by far played the tougher schedule, and should pile up the points here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Purdue Boilermakers have had trouble keeping up in the rugged Big-10 and heading to a revitalized Penn St. program is not what the doctor ordered. Penn St. came into this season wondering how they would do with QB Sean Clifford as he had just 7 pass attempts his entire career. That question has been answered as Clifford is completing 66% of his passes at an ultra-elite 11.1 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. He also is running at 5.2 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions rushing attack has seen 7 different players score a rushing TD. Purdue appeared set on offense behind QB Elijah Sindelar at 64.3% and 8.7 pards per attempt, but he is out with a collarbone injury and Jack Plummer has fared poorly at 51.4% at 6.1 yards per attempt and 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Making matters worse is the loss of the electric Rondale Moore at WR with a leg injury. This leaves the Purdue offense at extreme peril vs a very strong Penn St. defense. Home favorites off a 35+ point win vs an opponent that allowed more than 28 points last game, in which both teams scored more than a combined 57 points are 189-122-9 ATS 60.8%. When the line is in this range at -23.5 to -30.5 that goes to 44-22-7 ATS.

The Army program has risen after many years of futility, so at 3-1 on the season ot looks like they are strong again. That is not the case when you dig down into the numbers. Army (not including the Morgan St. game is averaging just 4.6 yards per carry which is very low for them. The defense is also down a notch and they have not faced a schedule of teams that run the ball nearly as well as Tulane. Willie Fritz has Tulane on a major upward trajectory, but it isn't seen by many as they have been bad for quite a few years now. The one thing that the triple-option does is make an opponent have to prepare for something they rarely if ever see. That is not the case here. Tulane has seen and defended the option 6 times since 2015 and has defended it extremely well. Tulane has defended 325 rushing plays and allowed just 1303 yards or 4 yards per carry. Those were poor Tulabe teams that combined to go 19-29 SU since 2015. Tulane has been considerably above average defending the run this season while generating 6 yards per attempt with their own running game. I think there will be a lot of running in this game as both teams put it on the ground for a combined average of 105 times per contest. Tulane has the edge in what will be a field position game and also has a much better passing game for more balance. Make the play in Tulane.

If there was ever a game that has been circled on a schedule it is tonight's Cincinnati Bearcats game vs Central Florida. Last year Cincinnati went into ESPN's Game Day to play in front of a frenetic crowd, with a freshman QB in Desmond Ritter, and the moment proved too big for him. Ritter has grown up since them and is continuing his success as an experienced sophomore now. While the Bearcats were brutalized on the scoreboard 38-13 they were in the game statistically. They were out-gained by just 23 total yards and ran the ball 55 times for 252 yards. C. Florida has a very strong secondary, but have proven vulnerable to the run. Cincinnati has a strong rushing attack, and will use it to best attack the Knight's defense, and keep the clock moving to keep the explosive C. Florida offense off the field. You have to go all the way back to December of 2016 to find the last time C. Florida was held to fewer than 30 points. That streak is going to end at some point, could it be tonight? This time the freshman QB is playing for UCF, and his 2 road outings vs FAU, and Pittsburgh were shaky. He will face a raucous prime time crowd, and the best defense he has seen all season. Cincinnati allowed 42 points at Ohio St. ( a season-low by the Buckeyes), while allowing 14 or fewer in each of their other 3 games. The Bearcats have by far played the tougher schedule. The Cats opponents have completed just 50% of all passes. The Cats will bring it tonight. Make the play on Cincinnati. 

NFL TEAMS IN A GAME FOLLOWING A DEFENSIVE TD:

Nothing can skew a box score more than a game that featured a team that scored without their offense. The next game tendency is usually impacted with a higher than normal total, as odds-makers realize most bettors don't go into great detail from the previous game. This applies significantly to division games, which are historically bias to the under.

ALL NFL GAME TOTAL RESULTS BY GAME TYPE (RESULTS ARE THE PERCENTAGE UNDER THE TOTAL):

NON-CONFERENCE                   48.8%       

CONF (But not division)               50.1%

DIVISION                                   52.1%****

It is clear division games have a much higher probability of playing under. These teams tend to know tendencies from playing each other twice a season every season. 

So now when the totals get skewed by a previous game that involved defensive TD things become profitable. Let's take a look:

1)  Home team scored a defensive TD in its last game

2)  This game is a division game

These games have gone:

93-145-5 O/U  or 60.1% to the UNDER

 Make the play on the UNDER

The New Orleans Saints took a huge hit when Drew Brees went down with a hand injury. Teddy Bridgewater has come in to replace him and has been adequate thus far, but he is going to be under seige by a Dallas pass rush that is very capable of getting consistent pressure. Bridgewater has a pedestrian vareer QB rating of 86.3 and has just 31 TDs to 23 INTs. The Saints maybe 2-1 on the season but have been outscored by their opponents. Dallas has an elite offense, with great balance. the Saints defense has allowed at least 27 points in each of their 3 games thus far and is allowing 5.1 yards per carry on the ground vs teams that average just 4.3. The secondary has been torched for 8.4 yards per attempt by teams that average just 7.4. the Saints defense has been highly suspect thus far. Dallas is generating nearly 500 yards of offense per game and will have things their way vs a poor Saints defense. The Saints have been dominant at home over the years, but have dropped their last 5 here ATS. make the play on Dallas.

The Seattle Seahawks were bearen badly last week at home, although the final score liiked respectable. It was their first September home loss in the Pete Carroll era. Arizona has decided that the #1 overall pick in the draft Kyler Murray was going to be their guy. Murray has at times looked very good but at other times very frustrated. The Cardinal offense has become very pass-heavy as Murray is throwing the ball 46 times a contest. The offense has allowed Murray to be sacked 16 times in 3 games, and if that continues, he is going to have a hard time making it through the season. That isn't the only problem. The Cards are 30th in yards allowed on defense and are allowing nearly 30ppg. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 in Arizona with a QB rating of 105. Murray may someday be an elite QB, but he has a 79 QB rating right now and has for the most part struggled and the Arizona passing attack is way below average generating 5.3 yards per attempt to opponents surrendering 6.4. The Cards are being out-gained by 115 yards per game. The Seahawks are 55-32-2 ATS since 2005 after a loss (21-9-1 ATS off a home loss). Seattle really has stepped up after a loss, and this Arizona team is going to struggle all season. Make the play on Seattle.

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game fits a situation that is based on a team in week 4 that is turnover free in their first 3 games:

 p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

SU:79-31-0 (6.42, 71.8%)Teaser Records

ATS:74-32-4 (3.94, 69.8%)

It also expands out to this:

 p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2 and line-9.5 and WP44 and total>34 and season>1997 and o:WP

The Hawaii Warriors will head to Mackey Stadium in Reno, Nevada to take on the Nevada Wolfpack. Both of these teams are 3-1 on the season, and it is a big deal to come out of this game at 4-1 for the winner. Hawaii has struggled as a program over the last 7+ years as they are not only 32-61 SU they are 34-55-3 ATS. They are in a tough spot here in Nevada. Most don't consider Nevada as a cold-weather place but the temperature is expected to be in the 30s. That is a far cry from the beach and 80s. Hawaii likes to throw a lot (45 times a game), and the cold weather leads to a slippery hardball, and it may impact their offense. Nevada has win 7 of the last 8 here and covered 6. The Wolf Pack has covered 9 of their last 12 at home, and remember Mackey Stadium is almost a mile high, and Hawaii is not a very deep team. Make the play on Nevada.

Wake Forest is off to a 4-0 start on the season for just the 5th time since 1980, but the 3rd time in the last 4 years. Unfortunately, the last 2 saw them finish 7-11 after the 4-0 start. Boston College immediately became a "stay away" from team with a 20 point loss to Kansas. This isn't the Kansas everyone has beaten up lately. This is a Les Miles Kansas team and he has his fingerprints all over this team already. I think BC got caught thinking they had an easy win and found out otherwise. BC has won exactly 7 games in 5 of their last 6 years, and can't seem to get over the hump. This isn't a team that is going to finish much better than those teams, and Wake Forest is getting a bit too much respect right now, and BC after losing to Kansas got right with a 30-16 win at Rutgers last week, and the Kansas game has them very underrated right now. Make the play on Boston College.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have long struggled in the SEC. They just don't seem to be able to recruit at the same level as their conference foes. They are however 21-4 SU vs the MAC, Mountain West, and C-USA. (10-2 vs the MAC). Overall they are 17-8 ATS in those 25 games. They currently own a 7 game winning streak vs the MAC with 6 of those by 11 points or more. They are 0-3 to start the season but the losses have come to LSU, Georgia, and Purdue. I would expect they will be all out for a win in this one. B. Illinois is 1-2 on the season and the defense has been poor and the offense mediocre. This is going to be a tough spot for the Huskies who have not played at home since August 31, and won't until October 5. Make the play on Vanderbilt.

The LA Rams had a great season a year ago making it all the way to the Super Bowl. Unlike many previous Super Bowl losers, the next season usually starts off poorly but the Rams are 2-0 and built for the long haul. The offense was hurt last year as Todd Gurley was injured, and Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending injury. Gurley and Brown form a great running back tandem and Kupp os doing his thing again leading the Rams receivers in catches and yards. Cleveland will come into this game at 1-1, and the win was on Monday Night vs a Jet's team down to a 3rd string QB. Cleveland took possession from their own 43 or better 5 times in the game and had an 89 yard TD pass, and still managed just 1 other TD the entire game. The offense managed just 13 points vs Tennessee while allowing 43. Things have not looked as good for Cleveland to this point vs expectations. This team has seldom gotten prime time exposure because they have been too bad. They have not been at home in a Sunday Night Football game since 2008, and just 3 times in their history and they have never won one. They have made 3 home appearances on Monday Night and last won on 2008. This team could be a bit nervous under the spotlight. Cleveland has much more talent than they have had over several years, but they have not learned how to win yet, and the Rams are a formidable opponent, that seems to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. make the play on LA.

This will be the first real test for either team. The Chiefs and Ravens both come in at 2-0, and the winner here is going to have the look of a Super Bowl team. I see a difference in this Kansas City team vs last season. Before I get into that let me be clear. This is a very explosive offense, with an elite QB. There are a few things to consider here. The Chiefs played 4 different teams that got a second look at them. All 4 of them combined to hold Kansas City to an average of -5.5ppg less than the 1st meeting, and none of the teams allowed Kansas City more points than their season average when they met a second time. The Chiefs are down 2 very heavy contributors from last year in Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill. Hunt was the leading rusher (181-824 7 TDs). Hill 2-151 and 1 TD. Those 8 TDs represent half od all the Chief's rushing TDs on the season.  Hill was the top receiver at 87-1,478 and 12 TDs, while Hunt caught 26 for 378 and 7 TDs. That is 38% of all passing TDs. That is also 27 total TDs out of 66 or 41%. That hasn't shown up yet against poor competition, or has it? Here is a mindblowing stat. The Chiefs scored points in 58 or 64 regular season quarters. just 6 times they got blanked in a quarter. Through 2 games and 8 quarters vs marginal competition this year they have been blanked 3 times. The defense remains below average and right now Lamar Jackson has been every bit as good as Mahomes with 7 TDs and 0 INTs on the season and adding 126 rushing yards on 19 carries. Baltimore is now 8-1 in his 9 starts, and his passing has gone to the top of the elevator over last year. The Ravens have a lethal running game but now have a lethal passing attack. Road dogs that average 160+ yards a game on the ground are 57.1% ATS and when the line is less than +7 they cover 63.4% of the time:

Make the play on Baltimore.

This game is based on a situation that is 109-186-2 ATS to the UNDER. 

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a surprising 3-0 start. They opened the season in impressive fashion with a 37-31 win over Missouri. The issue at hand here which offers a lot of hidden value is Wyoming is not what the record looks like. They were out-gained by Missouri 537-389 bit held a +3 margin in turnovers. They are 3-0 bit have been out-gained by every opponent they have faced and bot barely, but nu over 100 yards per game. This is a one-dimensional team that runs the ball almost every play because QB Chambers is completing 39% of his passes. They don't even have a receiver that has 65 yards receiving on the season. Tulsa is going to put 7-8 in the box and dare them to throw it. Moreover, Wyoming has had to defend 19 more plays a game than their opponent. Opponents have run off 240 plays and Wyoming 184. Tulsa had a big problem last year as they had no QB that could move the offense. Enter Baylor transfer Zach Smith and suddenly the Golden Hurricane have a passing attack. This team led Oklahoma St. at the half, but allowed TDs of 90 and 75 yards, but otherwise went toe-to-toe with them. They also lost to Michigan St. so the 1-2 recor is not what it looks like. Overall, Tulsa is a lot better than they appear, and Wyoming a lot worse. Make the play on Tulsa.

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

Michigan St. lost a tough one last week 10-7 at home vs a very underrated Arizona St. team. Michigan St. at this point of the season is seen by the public as being a one-sided team, all defense, and no offense. That is where the value lies in this game. Michigan St. has significantly under-achieved points vs the yardage the offense has generated. They have out-gained all 3 opponents by a combined 1289-794 or by 495 yards in 3 games. That just does not translate to the points they have scored. Northwestern graduated a lot of pieces from last year's team, but are pretty well stocked and the big question was at QB. That hole seemed to be filled by a highly ranked transfer from Clemson in Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to be the type of runner and passer never seen before at Northwestern, but thus far he has been a huge bust. Johnson is just 18-42 42.9% with 1 TD and 3 INTs. he has run for just 68 yards on 22 carries. Nobody runs on Michigan St. and with Northwestern lacking a strong running game, and a weak passing game, they are going to be hard-pressed to score much at all here, and in fact, I would not be surprised if the Michigan defense scores in this game. Michigan St. has an above-average offense, and the poor scoring numbers are going to change. Michigan St. is going to come in ready off a tough loss, and will bring it. make the play on Michigan St.

The Denver Broncos showed very little in an opening week loss to Oakland 24-16. They now host a Chicago Bear team that did very little against a much improved Green Bay defense. Now the venues change, as Denver is at home in an early-season game (more on that in a minute), while Chicago takes to the road for the first time this season. The Broncos have the biggest home-field advantage of any team in the BFL due to the altitude. That is especially the case early in the season (week's 1 and 2 in particular). Most NFL starters play very little during the NFLX, and some don't play at all. It takes a couple of weeks to get back in full game shape. When you combine that with playing at a mile high altitude, it has been a game-changer over many years. Since 1989 the Broncos at home in week's 1 and 2 are 33-3 SU and 22-11-3 ATS. (16-0 SU in week 2). Overall they are 23-13-3 ATS as a home dog in all games, 17-5-2 ATS as a home dog of 3 or less winning 17 outright! When the game is not a division game (those teams come here every year), the Broncos are 15-4-1 ATS in week's 1 and 2, and 19-1 SU. They have never not covered as a home dog in week 1 or 2. Make the play on Denver.

This game is based in large part to a very strong UNDER situation that looks like this:

Play the under in a division game with a home favorite and total >43.5 if the home favorite is on regular rest, and the opponent's previous opponent scored 31 or less points. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Pittsburgh Steelers got their clock cleaned in their opener vs New England. They were never in the game and lost 33-3. So have the Steelers finally declined, and with Bell and Brown no longer part of the offense and an aging Big Ben with pieces missing spell doom? I don`t think that has been answered yet, and at least for this week, all indications ate this is a great spot. Seattle won last week by a single point. If you looked at the boxscore they should have lost by 20. They were out-played in every facet at home by a team projected to be going nowhere. Seattle has a long history of struggling on the road in the early part of the season as they are 4-22-1 ATS playing on the road in week`s 1-4 (1-16-1 ATS week`s 1-3). The Steelers aren`t very used to getting their tail whipped, and losing by 20 points, but in Roethlisvergers 15 years they are now 8-1 after a 20 point loss. On a side note, the Seahawks have not scored a point in Pittsburgh in 20 years! ( a pair of shutouts). Tomlin has been here 12 years and has started 0-2 just 1 time. This has been Ben`s sweet spot playing in a game where the total is 43.5 to 50.5 where he is 32-22 ATS. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Last year I was on Iowa St. for weeks and won every time. It is emotionally difficult to move away from them after all that. Iowa St. was transformed when Brock Purdy took over at QB. He had a game-changer in WR Hakeem Butler, that was a deep threat always. He also had an NFL RB in David Montgomery. Those are 2 pieces that are not going to be replaced, and we saw the impact on Purdy and the Iowa St. offense against N. Iowa. The Cyclones had trouble offensively, and Purdy was frustrated all day. It took Iowa St. 3 IT's to win that one at home and they really should have lost. The eye test says the offense is going to struggle against a good defense, while the defense still looks pretty good. Iowa is a challenge as the Hawkeyes always play well defensively and come into this game having shutout 3 of their last 7 Big-10 opponents, going back to last year. Hawkeyes travel well especially as a favorite where they are 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 in this role. Iowa has a bye next week so they will let it all out here, and think that is enough vs an Iowa St. team that has to find a RB and a receiver that can stretch the field, and that looks to be absent right now. Make the play on Iowa.

Arkansas is just 6-18 in the last 2 years and for a once powerhouse football school these numbers have to change. The public may be sleeping on this team, and like we saw in Iowa St. last year when Brock Purdy was inserted as the starting QB, and the offense took off. Arkansas has an even better option and we have had a prelude to what to expect. Shockingly Ben Hicks was named the Arkansas starting QB ahead of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. Starkel as a freshman at A&M threw from 1800 yards with 60% completions at 8.6 tards per attempt. This guy is a big-time QB. Hicks started the season 21-45 at 46.7% and 5.4 yards an attempt. Starkel took over and went 21-29 at 72.4% 249 yards at 8.6 yards an attempt. There has been a tremendous upgrade to the Arkansas offense. Colorado St. allowed 52 points to Colorado in their opener, and many see this Arkansas team as a lot less than they really are. I'm betting that Starkel is in the process of transforming this team, with few aware. Make the play on Arkansas.

 I have been following Kansas St. social media sites all summer, and the players love Klieman, think he has put a lot of energy back into the program. The transfers Gilbert and Brown have at the very least stabilized the RB position which was bankrupt coming in. Heard nothing but praise for Thompson (QB), he is ready to take the next step up. WR's Schoen and Knowles can stretch a defense. The talent left behind is average, but the coaching and enthusiasm elevate it. Miss St. (QB ailing), no defensive pressure at all. Miss St. OL not as deep and Parker likely out, and Williams and Wilkerson (questionable). This looks like a 7 point game either way, actually, think KST can win if things go right. Make the play on Kansas St.

It looks like the Miami Dolphins are taking the route of the Cleveland Browns, willing to take a few years hit, and stockpile draft pick, and find a QB at the top of the draft. They have bankrupted the team of talent, and the last move sending Tunsil and Stills to Houston for draft picks confirms the agenda. The move to bring in Brian Flores as head coach os a babysitting job, and with Chad O'Shea taking over the play-calling as OC just goes one step further as he has never previously called plays. Miami has no difference makers on offense and defense and it will be ugly. They have 4 number 1 and 4 number 2 draft picks over the next 2 years. John Harbaugh was certainly on the hot seat last year. Sitting at 4-5 and on a 3 game losing streak, and losing Joe Flacco to injury seemed fatal. then in comes Lamar Jackson who in just 7 games set an NFL QB record for carries with 147. The offense pounded the ball relentlessly, dominated the clock and the Ravens went 6-1 down the stretch and won the AFC North. The defense, as usual, was top-notch, #1 in the NFL. They have added 2 tight ends in the draft, and have some receivers that should balance the offense. The defense took some hits, but still will be strong. Over the last 3 years, they have allowed an average of 19ppg. Miami will send QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (better known as Ryan Mcpick-6), and his age at 37 and his INT rate from a year ago of 5% should rise with no weapons. This should be a double-digit win for the Ravens. Make the play on Baltimore. 

 This is a big season for Marcus Mariota. This will be his 5th year and will be looking for a big contract. he spent the better part of last season, as he has for much of his career battling injuries. He will start the season healthy along with 2 keys to this game where the Titans have great matchups. TE Delanie Walker missed a lot of last season, and RB Derrick Henry seemed to break through late last season. Henry just made it to the 1000 yard mark and most of that cane in his last 4 games where he posted 585 of them. The Titans have to do a better job in the first half. They trailed at the half 10 times and were tied at the half twice. They out-scored opponents 15 times in the second half! Consistency was compromised due to injuries. While they lost games to Buffalo and Miami, they beat Houston and Philadelphia and blew out New England by 24 and Dallas by 14. It shows what this team is capable of when healthy. Cleveland is rising and expected to be a playoff team. They will be exploited after losing OG Kevin Zeiter who allowed fewer offensive pressures than any other player a year ago. Baker Mayfield lokes to throw deep, but the Titan`s are strong in defending that. The Titans after 4 years of winning a total of 18 games have now won 27 in the last 3 years, and this may be their best shot of getting over the top. A healthy Mariota, and Delanie Walker, along with an emerging Derrick Henry, against a Brown`s front seven that was the league`s worst at stopping the run, and favorable defensive matchups vs Cleveland, makes this game very close. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide have dominated the NCAA Football scene for several years now. It certainly looks like that is about to occur again. There are some questions for this Clemson team. They have so many playmakers on offense it is scary. That isn't the question. The defense took a lot of key hits, losing All-Americans off the DL and 6 NFL departures in all. The entire middle of the line is gone, and would-be replacements Nyles Pinckney, and Jordan Williams both missed the spring with injuries. They have able-bodied replacements, but overall they will simply not be as good. Texas A&M has plenty of experience facing top-level competition. The Aggies got good again in 2010, and with Kellen Mond at QB, and plenty of offense themselves, they will move the ball here. Mond improved significantly year-over-year and is poised for another jump this season. Texas A&M has more than proved they can play with the big boys. They have faced a #1 ranked Alabama team 5 times and is 4-1 ATS losing by an average of just 10.1ppg. They also out-played Clemson last year in a 28-26 loss, failing on a 2 point conversion that would have forced overtime. The Aggies out-gained Clemson 501-413 had a 25-14 first down advantage, held Etienne to 44 yards, made them punt 8 times, while Mond vs a better defense passed for 430 yards 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The difference was a -2 in turnover margin, on 2 costly fumbles. The Aggies bring in a #4 ranked recruiting class of a pair of 5* and 14 four-star players. They are better than last year, but the record may not be. The schedule is the toughest in the country facing #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #6 LSU, and #10 Auburn. That is 3 games on the road vs top 6 teams. The Aggies have proven to be able to stay with top-ranked teams, and there are enough holes in the Clemson defense that they can score enough here to get the money. Make the play on Texas A&M.

The Colorado Buffalos were obe at the pinnacle of the college football world, reigning supreme in the old Big-8/Big-12 along with Nebraska and Oklahoma. things have really changed. Colorado win 10 games in 2016, but in 11 seasons sandwiched around that, they have not had a winning season, and stand at 45-102 SU and 56-84-6 ATS. last year they started 5-0, but the roof collapsed as they finished 0-7. This year looks similar to all the seasons from above where they have averaged losing by 9ppg in 147 games. Nebraska looked very poor and uninterested last week, perhaps because they have had this game circled since last year's loss to Colorado when QB Martinez had his ankle twisted in a pile-up. You can be sure the focus will be different this year. The line here is shaded by the curious poor play by Nebraska last week, and I see a team that has motivational reasons to bring the "A" game to Colorado after the perhaps dirty injury to Adrian Martinez last year. Make the play on Nebraska.

The Syracuse Orange had a breakout season winning 10 games last year for the first time since 1992. They will be remembered for taking Clemson to the wire in a heartbreaking 27-23 loss. This is going to be a much different year. The 2018 team averaged 40ppg and they looked horrific vs Liberty managing just 24 points. There is another problem. Next week they will be hosting Clemson, and one-eye will be on that game. New Syracuse Tommy Devito looked really bad against Liberty completing just 17 of 35 passes and 176 yards. There was a lot of miscommunication on the field, and they won't be able to duplicate that against Maryland or they are going to lose. While the rushing numbers look good (over 200 yards) it was generated at a subpar 4 yards a carry. Maryland now has former Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson and he is an upgrade from a year ago. teaming with star running back Anthony Mcfarland, the Terps offense will be much better. I really believe this Syracuse team is highly over-rated off of last year, and the hype machine for Clemson is already getting attention, and personally, I think they will get destroyed. Maryland is a borderline Bowl team at best, but have enough to win at home here vs a team that has no offense. Make the play on Maryland.

This game is about situations and the one that applies here is on the total. A heavy chalk to a low total almost always goes over the total, and the reason is that 67% if the time the heavy chalk foes over the total by themselves! These games win 82.4% of the time and cover by 11.40 points. Right now just 1 nook has the total up, but there will be more as these FBS v FCS games often put out later lines than normal.

Play on the over in a game where the line is -30 or more and the total is 48 or less:

The 2019 NFL season will lift the curtain in Chicago, as the Green Bay Packers take on the Bears. The packers are off consecutive losing campaigns, which led to the firing of Mike McCarthy, entering Matt LaFleur. QB Aaron Rodgers became critical of McCarthy's play-calling, and the Packer offense should be better. There is one bigger reason why. Aaron Rodgers revealed that in the first half of game 1 last year vs the Bear's he suffered a tibial plateau fracture, as well as a sprained MCL. Ridgers was stripped of being his true effective self and was dropped 49 times. he enters 2019 with a new dynamic playbook, and healthy. the Green Bay defense has been upgraded substantially with the additions of a pair of OLB in Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, as well as safety Adrian Amos. The Packers also added Rashon Gary a pass rusher on the end, and safety Darnell Savage, bith coming in the first round of the draft. The Bears won 12 games a year ago, but the schedule was extremely soft. Chicago won 8 games vs teams that won 6 games or less, as well as losing 2 to teams that won 6 games or less and beat just 2 teams with 9+ wins. QB Mitch Trubisky was erratic, and often inconsistent. The Bears defense is strong, but they are going to get the first look of Rodgers running a new offense and could be caught off guard. 

here is another tidbit that applies to week 1 of the NFL:

A team that is a road dog of less than 7 and win 6 or fewer games a year ago are:

49-19-6 covering 72.1% of all bets.

Expert Analysis: There will not be a lot of interest in this game as Rutgers rakes on U

Expert Analysis: Arizona St. was projected low a year ago and had a great season considering. They were the only school in the country that had a 1,500-yard rusher, a 3000-yard passer, and a 1000 yard receiver. Returning is RB Benjamin who went for over 1600 yards a year ago. The Sun Devil`s are built with tremendous speed and the offensive line is going to control this game with 5 senior starters. Arizona St. had a laughable defense 2 years ago, had the youngest defense in the FBS a year ago, and now are poised to be the most intimidating group in the P-12. Jayden Daniels will br the QB, and he has the running ability and speedy talented receivers. Kent Sy. was 2-10 a year ago and has made all of 3 Bowl appearances in 99 years, and 0 wins. The Golden Flashes have played 38 games vs the likes of the SEC, ACC, and B10 and are 0-38 (11-23-1 ATS), and losing by an average score of 7.8 to 41. (5-15 ATS from 20.5 to 36). The Sun Devils averaged 43.3ppg in non-conference home games since 2009, and are 27-1 SU and 17-8 ATS in game 1 if at home. Kent St. is not a good team, and the depth is lacking which will be a major issue here. A team tends to be in lesser game shape in game number 1 and in this case, the Golden Flashes will be taking on the desert heat where the 7 PM start time projects a temperature of 100 degrees, and still 93 at game`s end. Welcome to the desert. Make the play on Arizona St.

Expert Analysis: This is a very important game for a pair of coaches that have each elevated the school they now represent. Butch Davis has led FIU to consecutive Bowl games and 17 wins in his first 2 years. Willie Fritz has succeeded everywhere he has been and in his 3 tears at Tulane, his team has improved each season. Tulane had just 1 winning season in 15 years prior to last season`s 7 wins, which included wins vs S. Florida and Memphis. Looking back at 2018 Florida International was 8-4 in the regular season, but personally, I think this team was highly over-rated. The panthers 8 wins came at the expense of teams that combined to fo 29-58, and an additional win was vs Arkansas Pine Bluff. They barely out-gained the opponents on their schedule despite the relative weakness of opponents. They have another issue as they have to rebuild their offensive line, and Tulane has some disrupters upfront and returns 8 defenders from a team that recorded 46 sacks a year ago. The strength of the Panthers is defending the pass, and Tulane likes to grind it out averaging over 200 rushing yards a game a year ago. I really like Willie Fritz, and the Green Wave will be at home here, and they should get the money here. Make the play on Tulane.

The time has come for the big game, as the New England Patriots once again has made it to the big game, and ironically will face the LA Rams where the Belichick/Brady duo made their first Super Bowl appearance also against the Rams. I guess this completes the circle. Ut certainly looks like New England is the square side of this game, as bets are poinding the Pats at a record pace as of this writing. I often shun going against a sizable public favorite as it is typically the wrong side. The Super Bowl, however, is on an island in that regard, just because so many people get engaged. The public opinion can mostly be ignored.  looking back at the last 15 Super Bowls, the public has been 3-2 ATS when 60% or more are on one side, and 6-2 ATS when 56% or more backs a given side.  

Bill Belichick is a very tough coach to play against because he does things in such a way, all the sets you see on film from the season, have become something designed to trick the defense when they do something different out of that set. Brady us like an extension of Belichick under center. He sees how many defenders are in the box, and calls a run or pass according to what the defense dictates. When he plays a team that has not played him at any point in the season he is 16-1 SU, the only loss last year to Philadelphia. 

Belichick also has a strong record vs the NFC West where he is 20-6 SU/ATS and an amazing 12-0 ATS if not a favorite of more than 3. New England was 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS vs playoff teams this year, LA 5-3/3-5. 

If the Rams can't get to Brady, and their best chance will be Aaron Donald, they are not going to win. The problem is Donald had 20.5 sacks this year, but 16.5 of them came in a 9 game stretch. He had just 4 before and after, and 3 came vs Arizona, and one vs SF. He had 0 vs New Orleans twice, KC, Chicago, and Philadelphia. He has been double-teamed often and a non-factor. Brady has been sacked 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks, and in 290 dropbacks in his last 8 games, he has been sacked just 5 times. Brady was not sacked in 6 games this season, more than any other season in his career. The pats are 25-4 ATS when he is not sacked, and 31-7-1 ATS (20-2-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -7.5) when he is sacked less than 2 times. That has some significance because oddsmakers have put a prop line out at 1.5 got Brady sacks. 

The Rams defense allowed over 30ppg in the 10 games they played vs winning teams and 15.8ppg vs everyone else. I don't think they are equipped to stop this NE offense, nor do I think they can win a shootout if it turns into that. I'm making the play on New England.

PROPS:

Jullian Edelman  MVP   +2600    

I'm well aware that 54.7% of all Super Bowl MVP's have been a quarterback (29). There is no betting value on selecting a QB in this prop. The next level is RB or WR each winning 6 times (11.3%). While I don't expect to win this prop wager, it has the best available odds of any other, so it does have the highest betting value. 

Edelman has a chance to pop a big play in many different ways. First, he will be targeted plenty. (131 targets in 14 games), The Belichick strategy has involved Welker (the previous Edelman) extensively more in the Super Bowl. Edelman was not available the last year but was targeted 13 times in 2016-17, and 12 times in 2014-15. (196 total receiving yards). Welker was targeted 8 times in 2011-12, and 14 times in 2007-08. he will certainly have opportunities here. Remember he was suspended for the first 4 games this year and was targeted 62 times over his last 6 games. (23 times in 2 playoff games 247 yards). 

He also returns punts which gives him another way to impact the game, and he ran the ball 10 times this season for 11.4 yards a carry, another way he has a chance to impact the game. Edelman was also a QB in college, and threw 2 passes this season for 43 yards and remains a possibility to put one in the air in this game, yet another chance to impact the game. I just think he has more potential ways to impact the game than any other non-QB. 

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PENALTIES ACCEPTED   UNDER   12.5   -110

Both of these teams are pretty disciplined when it comes to giving up yardage by penalty. They each ranked in the top 10 this season in fewest penalties committed. The Patriots under Belichick have always been pretty good at not being penalized very much. The last 5 Super Bowls played by New England has seen them penalized 5 times or less un all 5, and as a team has averaged 4 penalties a game over those last 5. 

Looking at the last 31 Super Bowls, the refs tend to "let the teams play" a bit more than the regular season. We saw some glaring examples of that in the playoffs this year. Over the last 31 Super Bowls, there has been just 9 of the 31 that saw 13 or more accepted penalties occurring, which is just 29% of the time. That means 71% of the time the game did not get to this number.

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JULIAN EDELMAN    OVER   80.5  -110 RECEIVING YARDS:

There is no doubt Edelman will be a significant factor in the Patriots game plan as well as the Rams defensive game plan. This isn't Brady's and Belichick's first rodeo. Edelman and Welker have had the same role in many Patriot Super Bowls, with defenses trying to stop them, and in short, they haven't.  Four of the last 5 involved one of the two and they were targeted 47 times. Edelman has topped this number in his 2 Super Bowl appearances, both his playoff games this year, 7 of his last 11 regular season games this year, and has averaged 99.2 receiving yards per game in 12 playoff or Super Bowl appearances. 

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DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS SCORE:  YES   +160:

This may be the largest value of any prop on the list this season. The last 31 Super Bowls has seen a defensive or special teams score occur in 19 of them or 61.3% of all games. Getting plus odds on something that has been 61.3% is an outstanding value.

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TOTAL MADE FG's FOR THE GAME   UNDER   3.5   -110:

Looking over the lat 31 Super Bowls played there have been just 10 of them that saw a game with 4+ FG's made. That means 67.7% of the time this simply has not occurred.

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LONGEST MADE FG     UNDER  47.5  yards  -115:

The last Super Bowl that saw a made FG of 48 yards or longer was Super Bowl 38! The fact is there have been some big legs in this game, but just 4 times in the last 31 years has a FG been made in this game from 48 yards out or longer. 

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WHICH TEAM WILL GET THE MOST FIRST DOWNS -  NEW ENGLAND   -110

Bill Belichick has been utilizing the run and a short passing game to play in the post-season for a number of years now. While the Rams had more first downs this year than NE 401-365, the NE offense in the post-season simply translates to generate more first downs. The 2 playoff games saw NE win that battle 30-22, and 36-16. The last 21 NE playoff games counting Super Bowls they have won the first down battle 16 of 21 times, and have averaged over 30 first downs in their last 3 Super Bowls, while also winning the battle of moving the chains in all 3.

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TOM BRADY COMPLETIONS  OVER  25.5   -140:

The Belichick offense changes in the playoffs. It is an offense of running and short passes. The 8 Super Bowls with him and Brady has seen the longest completed pass be 28 yards or less. The ball is in the air often for short chain moving drives. Case in point, in the regular season this year Brady never threw 30 completions in a game, and in the 2 playoff games 30, 34. Further proof can be found in his last 4 playoff seasons. Brady played 11 playoff games and has averaged over 30 completions per game each year. The ball is likely to be in the air a lot.

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TOM BRADY SACKS   UNDER  1.5   +150

This will look dangerous to most bettors with Aaron Donald lining up on the other side. Donald had 20.5 sacks this year. Looking back at Donald's season, however, he had 16.5 of those sacks in a 9 game stretch, so before and after that, he had 4. Those 4 came vs weak teams in Arizona (3), and SF (1). His 4 games down the stretch vs Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, and New Orleans saw him get 0, and he has not recorded a sack in the playoffs. 

Tom Brady in his last 8 games which includes 290 dropbacks has been sacked a grand total of 5 times, and 0 times in 90 playoff dropbacks. He has been sacked 2 times in 1 of the 8 games. 

Sunday, January 20th, 2019

The weather may turn out to be the story as New England heads to frigid Kansas City for the AFC Conference Championship. Game time temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees and falling. Let me get one thing out of the way. Tom Brady has been lethal in cold weather, 24-4 SU for his career with a temperature below freezing, including 12-1 SU in the playoffs. The problem is 12 of those 13 were at home. New England has not won a road playoff game since 2007! (0-3). His home playoff numbers show 46 TDs/18 INT's 29.2ppg. bit the road just 8 TDs/8 INTs and 24.3ppg. Bog difference! The Chefs fit a huge playoff situation as well. In a playoff game played on a team that averages better than 2.95 sacks a game and throws for more yards per pass attempt than their opponent to a total of higher than 39 and not a favorite of -7 or more. These teams are 24-2 ATS. Also, a playoff team that lost this season to this opponent by exactly 3 points is 17-3 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on KC.

There is a long-standing playoff marker that indicates surface matters in the NFL playoffs. here is what I am talking about:

reg season HF    grass         1275-1316  O/U

playoffs HF         grass            34-45      O/U

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reg season   artificial             1064-1113  O/U

playoffs        artificial                 44-28     O/U

results are approx. 20% different to the total.

Playoff teams as a home favorite on artificial turf to a total of higher than 47.5 vs an opponent that played its last game on grass and averages more than 23ppg are 15-2 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The New Orleans Saints destroyed the Eagles 48-7 in their meeting this season. The Eagles did not have a drive of more than 6 plays in the entire game, and the tone was set early as their first 3 drives resulted in 7 plays, 2 three and outs and an INT. New Orleans was up 17-0 before the Eagles ran their 8th play. A lot has changed since then. The Eagles have gone 6-1, and have now played 24 straight games losing just once by more than 7 points. New Orleans averaged 6.5 yards a play through week 12, and 37.2ppg. The offense has gone south since as they are averaging just 5.3 yards a play since and 19ppg. That covers their last 5 games. They become the first NFL team in history to average over 30ppg but less than 20ppg in their last 5. Looking at that history shows a team averaging over 30ppg but scored 146 or less points in their last 5 (declining offense) are 3-8 ATS in the playoffs. A team with same season revenge is 65-46-5 ATS un the playoffs including 32-13-1 ATS if they allowed 31 or more points in that loss. (26-8-1 ATS if not favored by -2 or more). Make the play on Philadelphia.

The New England Patriots allowed a grand total of 32 points in their last 3 games. This may poise many bettors to look at the under here. History proves otherwise, as a playoff team that has allowed 32 or less combined points in their last 3 games are 35-14 ATS to the over. That includes 9-0 ATS to the over of the total is 46 or higher and 17-4 ATS if the total is higher than 43. Unlike many years in New England, foul weather will not be in play. Make the play on the over. 

Regardless of the talent level, injuries, or anything else, Bill Belichick just keeps winning. His team is 28-9-1 ATS as a home favorite of -7 or less since the start of 2009. They often times look vulnerable but are always prepared. he is also 31-11 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games. The Chargers are playing their third straight road game, as well as their 2nd straight crossing the country 3 time zones away. A team playing 3 straight road games winning the first 2, the last as a dog are 2-12 ATS, if they are better than .670, including 0-8 ATS if they are a +4 point dog or more losing on average 34-10 and failing to cover by 17ppg. Make the play on New England.

I'm going to keep this short and simple. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 26 or more points in every game this season. Unless somehow that is suddenly going to change then consider this. All playoff teams playing as a home favorite that scores 26 or more points are 52-19-2 ATS. Make the play on Kansas City.

Monday January 7th, 2019

The Philadelphia Eagles needed a win and a loss by Minnesota to have a shot at repeating their Super Bowl win from a year ago. They got it done with a whitewash of Washington 28-0. QB Nick Foles will be under center again, just like a year ago, but he doesn't have the same numbers as he enters with 7 TDs and 4 INT's, but not far off. He is battling injuries and he may not be as effective. bears QB Mitchell Trubisky made a huge leap from a year ago and has become a quality QB. The Bears offense has added 10ppg from a year ago, and their defense has become elite. The Bears finished 7-1 at home losing only to New England and their average margin in the 7 wins was 13.1ppg. They beat Seattle and The Rams here. They held the elite offense of the Rams to 6 points. The Eagle defense on the road this year allowed 400+ yards a game and 23.7ppg. The Bears defense closed the season allowing a total of 42 points in their last 4 games. A team that allowed less than 47 points in their final 4 games and playing in the wild-card round is 7-2 SU/7-2 ATS. They are also 6-0 ATS if they did not allow more than 17 points in any of their last 4. Finally, teams in the wild-card round that average greater than 2.95 sacks a game, and are less than a -7 point favorite is 33-12 ATS. I also have a statistical matchup situation that has been 98-65-5 ATS, and when you combine it with the sack situation from above it has been 23-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Chicago. 

The San Diego Chargers enter their wild-card showdown vs Baltimore with 12 wins. They are being backed by the public bigger that any of the 4 wild card games. Baltimore was transformed offensively when Lamar Jackson took over at QB, and the Ravens running game exploded averaging 230 rushing yards a game. That is perhaps the most significant stat of all heading into this game. A team in the wild-card game that out-rushes their opponent is 47-13 ATS. While a 12 win team appears to be in a good spot as a road dog in the wild card round, they are 0-2 SU/ATS in this role, and a wild card team with a worse record as a wild card home favorite has cashed 63.6% of the time. make the play on Baltimore.

The Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks have each played well down the stretch. Seattle has won the last 3 meetings have won 8 playoff games behind Wilson, while Dallas has won 2 playoff games since 1996. Seattle dominated the early season meeting 24-13, and Prescott had less than 60 yards passing entering the 4th quarter. The QB play is important, and it comes down to who do you trust more? Seattle sacked Prescott 5 times in that meeting this season. Seattle has run the ball for 882 yards at 4.8 yards a carry in its last 5 games while the Dallas running game has managed 131 yards on 46 carries in their last 2 at 2.8 yards a tote. Many will say Dallas has Amari Cooper now, well Seattle has Doug Baldwin who didn't play in the first meeting either. Make the play on Seattle.

These teams both got off to slow starts as Watson and Luck were both coming off season-ending injuries from the prior season. Once they got going and up to speed, each team took off. Luck has had a banner year and has some crazy stats. he has completed a 20+ yard pass to 12 different receivers and completed a TD pass to 13 different receivers. The difference however in this game is Houston relies heavily on Clowney and Watt to get pressure and be game changers, and Luck has been sacked a league-low 18 times all season, an NFL best. Houston has seen Watson go down 62 times on the season, a league high. Indianapolis sacked him 12 times in the 2 games this season, and I believe that will be the difference maker here. Houston has been out-gained in 4 of their last 5 games. The team that controls the line of scrimmage generally wins the game, and Indy has done that consistently going 9-1 down the stretch. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Washington Huskies finished a disappointing 10-3 on the season. They just could not score points despite having a seasoned QB as they averaged 26.5ppg. They were carried by their defense all season. Last year they have a much better offense, with a similar defense but lost in their Bowl when Penn St. scored 35, the most they gave up all season. Two years ago their 41ppg offense was held to 7 by Alabama. They were also beaten by Auburn this season, and this team has just struggled outside the conference vs the better teams. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs the SEC, 1-6 in their last 7 vs the Big-12, and lost last year to Penn St. Bigger than any of that is my best Bowl situation that is 65-16 ATS is on the Buckeyes here. This is Urban Meyer's last game and his teams have been 55-27-1 ATS as long as he is not a favorite of -10 or more. (7-1 ATS in January). Make the play on Ohio St. 

The Kentucky defense was as good as ever this season, but they have been a one-way team all season. The Wildcats are great on defense, but the offense averaged just over 26 points a contest and in their last 5 SEC games they scored just 67 total points, or 13.4 a game. Overall in the 5 games, they managed 4.5 yards a play which is really bad. They were out-gained by 70 yards a game. The Penn St. offense scored almost 35 points a game, while their last 3 opponents combined to score a total of 20 points. Kentucky runs the ball 64% of the time, and Penn St. faced Wisconsin, Maryland, and Pitt which are 3 run-heavy offenses, and none of the 3 scored more than 10 points against them, as Penn St. forced 8 total fumbles. The defenses here are similar, but the Penn St. offense is much more explosive. Make the play on Penn St. 

The Miss St. season can be summed up rather quickly. They allowed 12ppg which is the best in the nation. The offense is another story. The top 6 defenses they played saw them score even less than that stingy defense allowed, 11.2ppg. When they played poor defenses they thrived and scored 47ppg. That is an amazing split, but unfortunately, Iowa is more like the 6 tough defenses that shut this team down. The Iowa defense is elite and allowed just 16 TDs prior to the 4th quarter all season. It is tough for a team averaging 11.2ppg vs elite defenses to cover a TD. There have only been 4 previous Bowl Games with a line of +7 or more and a total less than 45, and the dog won 2 outright and covered 3. A team entering its Bowl game that allowed their last 2 opponents less than 10 combined points us 1-15 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The ACC lacked quality at the top this season and NC State benefited from a 4 game out of conference schedule that did not include a P5 opponent and went 4-0 winning by 127 points. The SEC dominated the ACC going 7-0 ATS and included in that was 2 ATS losses by Clemson that gave up 500+ yards to A&M and 600+ to SC. Texas A&M is a lot better than their record as they lost to both Clemson and Alabama but scored 24.5ppg in the two vs the nations best defenses. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, SC, and LSU, so they beat some good teams. I think if NC State played the A&M schedule it would remain questionable if they would even be Bowl eligible. A team off 3 straight home games coming into its Bowl game. winning at least the last 2 are 12-1 ATS since 1998. Make the play on Texas A&M.

Both Michigan St. and Oregon had disappointing seasons. These programs have come to expect more. Oregon got news that QB Justin Herbert will return for his senior year. Hebert was projected as the first QB to be selected in the draft. Mario Cristobal will be taking over the Oregon program, and I think the coaching edge goes to Mark Dantonio as he has won and covered 5 straight Bowl games despite being an underdog in 4 of them! Oregon fits a Bowl situation that is 0-11 ATS as well as a statistical profile that is 42-82 ATS. make the play on Michigan St.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Minnesota.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on the NY Giants.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Tampa Bay.

I have a week 17 situation that plays on the team with a lower winning percentage if the line is from +5 to -6 and the team with the lower winning percentage has more than 4 wins. This is 102-39-2 ATS. The play is on Buffalo.

The Oklahoma Sooners have the best all-time offense in NCAAF. They average 578 yards a game along with 49.5 points. The Alabama Crimson Tide have their best offense ever and generate 528 yards and 48 points. When you look at Alabama because their defense was so strong, QB Tua Tagovialoa only played in the 4th quarter in one game, and still had 42 TD passes. The separation is the Alabama defense allowing 14.8ppg, vs the dreadful defense of Oklahoma that allowed 32.6ppg and was worse late in the season allowing over 40ppg in their last 5. It is possible that Alabama will be scoring on every possession, and the Tide defense is going to give up some points here, but will also get several stops. Alabama led 7 games this season by 14 points or more after the first quarter and had 20 point leads or better at the half in 9 games. There is no difference between the offenses, but a huge difference between the defenses. Oklahoma gave up 556 yards a game in their last 5. WR Marquise Brown is struggling with a foot injury and he is a key piece for the Oklahoma offense, and the secondary is banged up as well. Make the play on Alabama.

I think Notre Dame has been disrespected all season. Not being in a conference, a schedule questioned by many, and have been thought of as a team that doesn't really belong. That certainly will be a motivating factor and remember they did beat Michigan who ran off 10 straight wins after losing to the Irish, and that was before the offensive changes. Ian Book completed 70% of his passes with 19 TDs and 6 INTs after becoming the starter the last 9 games. Clemson saw similar results when Trevor Lawrence took over at QB. The key to this game is going to be the ability of the Notre Dame offensive line to give Book some shots downfield. That is the Clemson weakness, they were beat bad by SC over the top. The ACC was pretty weak at the top this year with Pittsburgh making it to the Championship game. When Clemson played up outside the conference their defense was burned for over 500 yards by A&M and over 600 yards by SC. The Irish have enough to hold their own here in a game that should be a lot closer than many think. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This game is going to be somewhat forgotten as it is nestled in with the 4 team playoff semi-finals, and some much more interesting Bowl games. Arkansas St. had a somewhat disappointing season. QB Justice Hansen did have a very good season with 27 TDs to just 6 INT's, but the Red Wolves 8 wins did not include any vs a team that made a Bowl game, and collectively the teams they beat went just 26-58. That doesn't include a win vs Se Missouri St. of the FCS. hard to trust the numbers as this team still has not beaten anyone of reasonable quality all season. The run defense really eroded this year after finishing 2017 allowing 136 rushing yards per game at 3.6 a carry to 201 a game at 5 yards a carry in 2018, despite a rather weak schedule. Nevada was 3-9 a year ago, but won 2 of their last 3 after a 1-8 start, so they have been 9-6 since. The offense really came together late in the season averaging over 520 yards per game in the last 3, and if not for blowing a 23-0 lead vs UNLV in the finale, they would be riding a 5 game winning streak here. Nevada should be excited to be here, are closer to home, and an 8th win would be the most for them since 2010. Nevada was a double-digit dog in 4 games, and a dog overall in 7 and still manged 7 wins. Make the play on Nevada.

Washington St. failed to finish business as they went into their finale against Washington with 1 loss and in the hunt for the 4 team playoff. It has to be demoralizing for a team that came so close to winning the Pac-12 and at least playing in the Rose Bowl. Mike Leach doesn't actually have much of a reputation in Bowl games where his team is just 2-7 ATS in his last 9, despite being the favorite in all but 1. Iowa St. finished 8-4 and has a chance to be only the 2nd team to reach 9 wins in the last 38 years at Iowa St. This team has lost just 1 game by more than 10 points in the last 2 years (14 v Texas), so basically they have been in every game they have played. This team took off when freshman QB Brock Purdy was inserted as the starter as they finished 7-1 with him directing the offense. He has been under the radar good. Just 2 QBs in the country averaged more yards per attempt than his 10.04 and that was Tagovialoa and Murray. Grier at W. Virginia was not as good, and the next best freshman was Trevor Lawrence of Clemson at 7.99. Needless to say, he is the best QB no one has heard of. Iowa St. will not be intimidated by the Cougars passing game after having faced Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and W, Virginia. The Iowa St. defense appeared to tire late in the season but will be ready here. Make the play on Iowa St.

The W. Virginia season could not have had a worse ending. They brought an 8-1 record into their last 2 games and suffered heartbreaking defeats in each. The losses came despite generating 97 points and 1,257 total yards. They will now be without the QB that generated the explosive offense as Will Grier won't play. Additionally, their best offensive lineman will skip the game as well. jack Allison will start at QB and he has attempted just 10 passes all season. Syracuse will be the motivated team here, as they have a shot at their first 10 win season since 2001. The Cuse fans sold out their ticket allotment almost immediately and will be well represented in Orlando. Syracuse's 3 losses came against unbeaten Clemson and Notre Dame, and against Putt who made it to the ACC Championship game. Syracuse averaged 40.8ppg and without Grier and their best offensive lineman, I don't see the Mountaineers keeping up here. A team that looked like they were going to a big Bowl, with 1 loss, and then lost their final 2 games like W. Virginia have really struggled in their Bowl game at 2-10-1 ATS since 1994. W. Virginia just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 Bowl games, and 0-12 ATS if they are not a dog of +3 or more. make the play on Syracuse.

Might be some rain early on Friday but it appears things should rapidly improve prior to kickoff here. this game is all about the QBs as Auburn signal caller Jarrett Stidham will be entering the NFL draft, but will play in the Bowl. I'm sure he is looking to brush up his resume vs a Purdue team that ranked in the bottom 10 this season in pass defense. Purdue has a very good QB of their own in David Blough who threw for 277+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. he has a speedy target in freshman Rundale Moore who caught 103 balls for 12 TDs. Auburn faced some very strong defensive teams in LSU, Washington, Miss St., A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, where they averaged 22ppg, but vs everyone else 38.2ppg. The ball is going to be successful in the air here, make the play on the over.

Both these teams needed to win their finale to get here, as they each finished 6-6. Vanderbilt had built a lot of momentum late in the season covering their last 5 games at 5-0 ATS. Unfortunately all that momentum gets lost with the big layoff and often these streaking teams don't fare well in Bowl games. A team that comes into a Bowl game with an ATS streak of more than 3 games vs an opponent that is not on an ATS streak of more than 3 games is 52-81-2 ATS, including 10-27-1 ATS with a line from pock to -4.5. I also have another version of streaking teams that i 29-71 ATS. Baylor was 1-11 SU last year, so they have to be excited to be in any Bowl game. They also get this one in Texas and should have the crowd on their side making this a quasi-home game. Make the play on Baylor.

A disappointing season for both these teams as they collide in the Pinstripe Bowl. Wisconsin will go with back-up QB Jack Coan, while it looks like Miami QB N'Kosi Perry may be facing disciplinary issues. That would leave Malik Rozier at QB for the Canes. The offense has been problematic all season and each QB has struggled against good teams. This game will come down to The Wisconsin running game and heavy doses of Jonathon Taylor, and his 1,989 yards on the season at 7.1 yards an attempt vs a stout Miami run defense. Taylor had success vs the top 4 run defenses he saw this year in BYU, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn St. He carried 88 times for 516 yards at 5.9. he will be the best player on the field. One big factor is also the weather. This game is being played in NY City and temps are expected to be in the 30s. Miami us the only warm weather team to ever play in the Pinstripe Bowl, and perhaps an unmotivated team already, in cold weather may lose more of their mental preparation here. Wisconsin is certainly used to the cold, and it could be a big day for Taylor. Hard to trust a likely unmotivated Miami team in the cold. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It looks like both QB Anthony Russo and RB Ryquell Armstead will both be playing for Temple. The coaching match up goes solidly Duke's way as David Cutcliffe has a great Bowl resume at Ole Miss and Duke at 8-2 ATS and his team has scored 27 or more points in every one of them. Temple will be led by Ed Foley as an interim coach, the same role he had 2 seasons ago. Foley lost that game as a -10.5 favorite to another ACC team Wake Forest 34-26. Duke is coming off a woeful loss to Wake Forest in their season finale 59-7 and lost the game prior to that vs Clemson 35-6. A team entering their Bowl game after losing the previous 2 by -52 points or more are very motivated, and are 10-2 ATS if +3.5 or more, and 8-1 ATS if it is a December Bowl game. AAC teams with 7 to 10 wins are 6-19 SU and 6-19 ATS, including 1-8 ATS in their last 9. Make the play on Duke.

One of the lowest Bowl totals in quite some time, as California takes on TCU. The Bears have struggled in offense all season, and their last 5 games shows they scored 15,13,13,12, and 33. They scored 33 vs Colorado by opening the first quarter with 2 pick-6's, so in reality the offense scored 19. TCU is down to their 3rd string QB, and they have also struggled all season. The best units on the field will be both defenses which are among the best in the country. The total may be low, but not low enough. This is an era of high scoring so sometimes these low totals tend to push the bettor toward the over. The last 2 years in games played with a P5 conference favorite and a total of less than 41 the under is 13-1! The average score was 22.8 to 7.9. Only one game reached as high as 43 points and that game saw running TDs of 71,67, and 60 yards, so a certain outlier. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers had to win a tough game at Wisconsin yo finish 6-6 and become Bowl eligible. They were handed the game on a silver platter by Wisconsin who fell behind 17-0, committed 4 turnovers, and allowed a 69-yard punt return. That marked the biggest weakness of this Minnesota team, their run defense. Wisconsin had success on the ground generating 170 yards on 31 carries but had to throw a lot to play catch up all game. Minnesota has issues, as 6 unannounced players are suspended for this game. Minnesota has faced 3 other top 30 rushing offenses and here is what happened:

#17 Maryland      37-315    42 points

#13 Illinois      35-430    55 points

#28 Nebraska      43-383    53 points

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Now they get not only the #1 rushing team in NCAA Football but one that is even more difficult to stop, running the triple option. Tech has run for 4,019 yards at 5.73 yards per carry and 45 TDs on the ground. The only 2 teams that contained their running game were Georgia, and Clemson, as they went for 229+ vs all others, and 372+ vs 6 opponents. Minnesota also loses LB Blake Cashman (leading tackler) and OT Donnell Greene sit out of this game to prepare for NFL draft. Paul Johnson is making this game his swan song so tech should easily be the motivated team here to send their coach out a winner. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

The contrarian NFL always holds some surprises. My biggest and nest situation applies to this game. It is based on part in a game where one team's scoring margin vs the weak opponent is very extreme. The situation is a ridiculous 52-7 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

Buffalo at 10-3 on the season broke the previous school record for wins of 8 since joining the FBS. The Bulls, however, may still be feeling the pain for their MAC Championship game where they were up 29-10 near the end of the 3rd quarter vs an offensively challenged N. Illinois team and lost. Neil Brown has a chance to string together a 3rd straight 10 win season at Troy with a win. Bowl teams that play relatively close to home (under a 3-hour drive in this case), often have the huge crowd advantage as Buffalo is over 1000 miles away here. The MAC has a horrific Bowl record as they are 18-36-3 ATS since 2007, and just 1-11 SU in their last 12. Buffalo has whiffed in their 2 Bowl games as they lost by 18 and 25 points. This is the 1st ever Bowl game for Lance Leipold, while Neal Brown has won the last 2 years. Make the play on Troy.

The Houston Cougars were standing at 7-1 and a big Bowl game appeared to be within striking distance. It all came tumbling down when QB D'Eriq King went down with a season-ending injury. King was also the team's top runner. His replacement Clayton Tune is passing at just 44% completions, and 2 yards less per attempt than King, and is not a runner. Additionally, the Cougars lost 4 defensive linemen, including one of the best in the country Ed Oliver, who is skipping the Bowl game. Army has its best team in years at 10-2. The Army roster is always heavily stocked with Texas recruits(20+ this year), and playing in Texas in front of family and friends have always served this team well as they are 19-2 ATS lifetime in Texas. Make the play on Army.