This game fits a situation that is 50-24 ATS and the play is on San Diego.

This game fits a situation that is 47-27 ATS and the play is on the under.

These teams may not be excited about playing on Christmas Eve far away from home, but at the same time they get to play this game in Hawaii, which I think they will consider a fair trade-off. Cincinnati at 7-5 has under-achieved their stats this season, as they have out-gained their opponents on the season by 139 yards a game, yet land here at just 7-5. The culprit has been turnovers, as the bearcats have thrown 19 INT's on the season. The lofty stats have added up to a scoring margin of just 5.9ppg. They beat teams that have a combined record of 28-44, but lost to 5 teams with a combined record of 48-14. They will face another team with a lofty record in San Diego St. who is 10-3 on the season and has won 9 straight games. The Aztecs have the defense to cause problems for the careless Bearcat offense, as the Aztecs are allowing 12.7ppg in their last 9 while scoring 35. They will have a huge advantage controlling the tempo, as they run the ball exceptionally well, and Cincinnati has been brutal against the run. San Diego lost QB Maxwell Smith a couple games ago, but QB Christian Chapman has been an equal replacement. The Aztecs throw the ball very little, because they have a strong running game led by Donnel Pumphrey who has gone for 1,554 yards and 16 TD's, putting the Jr. at over 4,000 yards for his career. The Cats also have to contend with RB Chase Price with 940 yards and 6 TD's on the season. Cincinnati also applies to a very negative Bowl situation that is 27-54 ATS, that plays against a team with more rest as a favorite, if they also have a worse winning percentage than their opponent. Cincinnati has struggled vs good teams all season, and I don't expect that to change here. Make the play on San Diego St.

This game fits a situation that is 25-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 22-2 situation that plays on the under, which is also 0-18 O/U the last 18 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 30-18 ATS, and the play is on Georgia Southern.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 29-10 ATS, and the play is on N. Illinois.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 22-4 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 38-12 ATS, and the play is on Toledo.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 55-34 ATS, and the play is on Utah St.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 55-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Miami Beach Bowl was a good draw for the South Florida Bulls who will have a strong contingent of fans present as they take on the potent offense of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. South Florida played a very tough schedule losing 4 games to Maryland, Navy, Memphis, and Florida St. Their offense really came on late in the season as the Bulls closed by scoring an average of 51ppg in their last 3, as well as comleting the season 7-1 as well as 7-1 ATS. It should be noted that the 4 losses they suffered all came as an under dog of more than a TD. the Bulls were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS at pick or a dog of less than 7.5 on the season, and are a dangerous dog in this contest. The Bulls have the edge here on defense as their 9 games against teams that are not part of a power-5 conference saw them allow 17.8ppg. That all adds up to a dangerous, and under the radar under dog for this contest. W. Kentucky finished the season at 11-2, and is all about offense, as the defense allowed 28 or more points to 8 of the 12 opponents they faced. Make the play on S. Florida.

This game fits a 22-2 situation that plays on the under, which is also 0-18 O/U the last 18 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

The Arizona Cardinals are 11-2 and still believe they have a shot at over-taking the 13-0 Carolina Panthers, but at the very least are looking to clinch a first round bye in the playoffs. The Cards have averaged 95 total yards better than their opponent on the season, while the struggling Eagles come in at -34. Philadelphia has been a negative team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and are over-matched here. The Eagles have been out-gained in each of their last 4 games. The Cards have won 7 straight games, and in their 11 wins they have out-scored their opponent by over 15ppg. The Eagles have allowed 20 or more points in 7 straight games, and with the cards allowing less than 20ppg on the season the stage is set for the Cards 8th straight win. Arizona fits a situation that is 33-5 ATS. Make the play on Arizona.

The Green Bay Packers has not lived up to the billing this season, and in fact, Aaron Rodgers has been rather ordinary, as has the Pack offense. One thing has changed, and that is Head Coach, Mike McCarthy is back calling the plays, and we saw the impact of that last week vs Dallas. The Packers ran for 230 yards, and passed for another 205. It was the first time the Packers eclipsed the 400 total yards mark since facing Carolina in on November 8th, and just the 2nd time since week 3. The Packers are now 27-3-1 SU when they generate 400 or more yards in a game the last 31 times they accomplished the feat. (26-2 SU if not facing an unbeaten team). The Raiders are off perhaps their biggest win in years taking down Denver, after falling behind 12-0 at the half. What might be going unnoticed is the fact that Green Bay has allowed just 78 points in their last 5 games at 15.6ppg, and with a defense allowing 18.8ppg on the season is just 1.5 points away from #1 Denver who is at 17.5ppg. I think McCarthy back calling plays and the Pack defense is a game changer. Make the play on Green Bay.

Sometimes in the NFL you have to scale down your emotions when looking at a game. This game with a red-hot Russell Wilson, and Seattle Seahawks, playing at home vs the hapless Cleveland Browns looks like an absolute blowout on paper. This Seattle team has absolutely blown out their last 2 opponents, and did so on the road beating Minnesota 38-7, and Baltimore 35-6. How could they not do the same to Cleveland, especially at home. History says, they are in one of the biggest letdown situations possible in the NFL. This occurs infrequently, but when it does, it is a powerful indicator of the surprise most will see happen in this game. teams that win 2 straight games where they score 30 or more points, and also allow 12 or less points are 2-21 ATS in their next game. That becomes 0-18 ATS if the total is greater than 35.5 and they are not a +3 point underdog or more. the fact is these teams all have had a winning percentage of greater than .570, but are just 9-9 SU as well, and 15 out of 18 trailed after 3 quarters. Their have been 6 such games vs a team that has a winning percentage of less than .310, and they have been a favorite from -10 to -23.5 in those games, and won 5 of the 6 by 4 points or less! They have outscored these horrible teams by +0.4 points per game! Talk about the ultimate letdown, this is as good as it gets in the NFL. Make the play on Cleveland.

If you look back to when the Atlanta Falcons were 5-0 the line on this game would have been dramatically different. Just last week Atlanta was just +8 against the now 13-0 Carolina Panthers and now they are +3 to Jacksonville, both venues away? can you rationalize that Carolina is separated by just 5 points from Carolina? The truth is, the odds makers have no choice, as the Falcons have lost 6 straight games, and have failed to cover 9 straight. let's not forget that prior to the 38-0 whitewashing at the hands of Carolina, 4 of the Falcons previous 5 losses were by 3, 1, 3, and 4 points, not exactly blowouts. It should be further pointed out that Atlanta turned the ball over 4 times in 2 of those close losses. Jacksonville is somewhat an illusion right now having scored 90 points in their last 2 games. Here is the eye opener however. there have been 38 teams that have scored 90 or more total points over a 2 game period, and only 2 of them did it on less total yards of offense. The fact is only 7 teams have scored that many points that gained less than 850 total yards, and the 7 previous teams went 1-6 ATS in their next game. Did the Jacksonville offense suddenly get elite in 2 weeks? History says otherwise. Atlanta fits a myriad of situations led by one that is 45-6 ATS. Make the play on Atlanta.

This is a critical game for both the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Redskins, as they are both at 6-7, and if they have playoff aspirations a win in week 15 is a necessity. A quick glance at history shows 6-7 home favorites trying to get to 7-7 have gone 18-18 ATS, while a road dog at 6-7 has gone 19-13 ATS. Washington is off a win but has been mired in a pattern of losing after winning, and winning after losing for 8 straight weeks. The Bills are however slightly better from the line of scrimmage at +22 yards a game vs Washington. Washington has 6 wins and the opponents they have beaten are a combined 33-45 and none of them have a winning record on the season. Buffalo fits a situation which is 45-6 ATS for the this contest. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Carolina Panthers are 13-0 on the season, and crushed the Atlanta Falcons at home 38-0 last week. they have started getting a bit to big for themselves, taking team selfies while the game was still going on, as if they already won the Super Bowl. This is the place where unbeaten NFL teams have their day of reckoning. NFL teams that are 13-0 or better start to feel the pressure, and are 1-11 ATS, and just 6-6 SU, all to an average line of -11.8! meet the Giant killers, pardon the pun, the New York Giants. The Giants have an elongated history of taking down unbeaten teams, in fact from week 3 on they are 16-5 ATS vs an unbeaten team, but more importantly they are 5-0 ATs vs an unbeaten team from week 10 on, never losing by more than 3 points. The Giants may be 6-7 on the season, but 6 of their 7 losses have occurred late in games and by 6 points or less. Everything has broken perfectly against them, and you could argue, if the opposite were true, and everything broke perfectly for them they could be 10-3. teams off a home shutout win where they scored less than 50 points, and are posted as a less than -7 point favorite, are 9-21 ATS. I also have another situation pitting a team off a home shutout win that is 6-36 ATS. the Giants meanwhile are in a 67-30 ATS situation themselves. December GOM on the NY Giants.

The Bowls get started on Saturday, and I like the game between the Arkansas St. Indians, and the LA Tech Bull Dogs. Arkansas St. got off to a rocky start at 1-3, but played a wicked out of conference schedule against Missouri, USC, and Toledo, their 3 losses. They certainly took off from their, wiping the slate clean at 8-0, while averaging 48.6ppg. The problem I see, is every one of their games went over the total, as the defense allowed 27.5ppg. The 8-0 record was compiled against opponents that had a combined 37-60 record, and 7 of the 8 teams had a defense which was ranked 85th or worse in the country, and left them with the 92nd rated strength of schedule in the country. LA Tech didn't top that by much at #87, and finished 8-4 on the season. The losses were all impressive to Miss St., Kansas St., W. Kentucky, and S. Miss. and the wins were also uninspiring. All things being pretty equal here, the Bull Dogs out-gained their opponents by 83 yards a game and Arkansas St. by 51. I think the yardage advantage by LA Tech is negated by a special teams advantage by Arkansas St. Arkansas St. owns a turnover margin of +0.92 per contest, while LA Tech is at -0.17, and while that looks like a positive for Arkansas St., teams that hold a better than +0.75 turnover margin over their Bowl opponent (+1.09 here), are 40-55-2 ATS covering just 42.1% of all games. This game also fits a very strong Bowl situation, based in part on the consecutive covers by Arkansas St. which has them in a very negative 6-37 ATS situation. Make the play on LA Tech.

Saturday December 19th, 2015

 The Dallas Cowboy`s were no match for the Green Bay Packers last week at Lambeau, as Green Bay controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. the Cowboys are now 4-9 on the season, but have had to face New England, Carolina, Seattle, Green Bay, and Atlanta when they were starting 5-0. they certainly have been a lot more competitive otherwise at 4-4. I say that because Dallas is not as bad as their 4-9 record, and the 4-4 record when facing teams that are not of elite status, shows a much more competitive team, one that I think will give the jets trouble, on the road. New York has 8 wins, but there is not a playoff team in the group, not a single one of the 8 with even a .500 record, and a combined record of 39-65. Dallas would fit in that group at 4-9, but looking at Dallas as a 4-4 team puts them in a trouble spot for the Jets as all is not as it appears. It isn`t just the Jet`s wins that are disturbing, it is their losses as well. They have seen 4 of their 5 losses come against losing teams as well, making their 13 game schedule comprised of playing 12 teams that currently have a losing record on the season, the worst in the league! I think that has propped the Jet`s up to have the illusion of being a lot better than they actually are. make the play on Dallas.

The San Jose St. Spartans are one of the 5-7 teams selected to play in a Bowl game. It is a product of the glut of Bowls that are being played now, and even if they win, their season is still below .500. This has got to be the thrill of a lifetime for the Georgia St. Panthers. who entered this season at 0-24 SU vs FBS competition. They looked to be having the slightest bit of success opening the season at 2-6, but really galvanized as a team in their last 4 games, winning them all to get here. perhaps their biggest win was in their season finale when they took apart a very good Georgia Southern team 34-7, and did it on the road. The emergence of QB Nick Arbuckle has transformed this team, and he has 4 receivers that have caught 205 passes for 3200+ yards and 24 TD's. The defense has allowed a total of 57 points in the last 4 games, has emerged as well. San Jose St. and Georgia St. are statistically about even from the line of scrimmage, but San Jose has done so vs a much tougher schedule, but if you look at the stats since Georgia St. has developed into a pretty decent team, the numbers are much better for the Panthers. teams that enter a Bowl game at 6-6 and are off 2 wins (needed to win their last 2 to get here), as a dog of +2 or more are 8-3 ATS. San Jose St. applies to a very negative Bowl situation of 27-54 ATS, that applies to a Bowl team on more rest than their opponent, and posted as a favorite, and also has a lower winning percentage than their opponent. Make the play on Georgia St.

The New Mexico Bowl has been around since 2006, and Arizona represents the 3rd Pac-12 team to be invited. The first 2 did not fare all that well with Arizona beating Nevada by 1 point, and Washington St. losing to Colorado St. by 3. This is a home game for New Mexico, and home teams have a long history of playing well in a Bowl game. It was a tough season for the Wildcats who started 5-2, but took until their 11th game to get that 6th win to become Bowl eligible. They finished a disappointing 6-6, and just 2 of their wins vs FBS teams were by 10 or more points. They are just the 2nd Bowl team going all the way back to 1980 to be a 10+ point favorite and have a scoring margin on the season of less than 2ppg, and the 15 teams that have had a scoring margin of less than 2, and have been favored by 6.5 or more points are just 5-10 ATS in a Bowl game, and the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in a Bowl game vs a team that is not from a power-5 conference, including a 20-14 win as a -9 point favorite, at home to New Mexico in 1997. This is clearly the motivated (New Mexico v the unmotivated (Arizona). The Lobos have not been to a Bowl game since 2007, where they shutout Nevada 23-0. This is a team that has only reached 8 wins 4 times since 1980, so this is a big deal for them. Pac-12 teams own a 13-23 ATS mark in Bowl games vs a team that is not from a power-5 conference since 1980, and they are 9-19-1 as a favorite of -8 or more in such games. The Pac-12 is also 3-14-1 ATS in a Bowl game vs a team with less than 8 wins, including 1-9-1 ATS if the game occurs before December 30th (in other words, a minimal Bowl for them). Finally, teams with more rest than their opponent, and playing as a favorite, and have a lower winning percentage on the season than their opponent struggle in Bowl Games as they are a woeful 27-54-1 ATS. (17-42 ATS from -3 and up). Make the play on New Mexico.

I want to rewind the clock back to the 2013 NFL season. Many may remember what a rage playing the OVER was in NFL non-conference games. The strongest area during that 2013 season was playing a non-conference game to go over when the home team was posted at less than -3. fast forward to 2015 and those same games, are now 20-3 to the UNDER in 2015! What goes around comes around, you might say. (including 10 straight games going under). We have a pair of inept offenses, squaring off vs a pair of inept defenses. The Giants defense has allowed 420 yards a game, but only 1 team through 12 games has scored more than 27 points against them. The offense has been limited to 20ppg as well over their last 3. Miami's struggling offense has scored 20 points or less in 6 straight games. They have only managed to run an average of 55 plays a game in the 6 games. This total is way over done, as Miami going all the way back to 1989 has only played 12 of their 215 home games over the period to a higher total, and just 1 of their last 23. The Giants last 18 games on grass has seen both teams total just 39.6ppg. Make the play on the under.

I was hoping this game would set up this way, and it did. New England had the look of invincibility through 10 games at 10-0, but have since faltered losing their last 2. Certainly injuries have played their part, but this team has not lost 3 straight games since 2002! The fact is, they have only lost 2 straight games over the same period, and are 4-0 SU in the next one, and 3-1 ATS, winning by 22.5ppg (the only loss was as a -13 point favorite, where they won by 10). Houston looked the part of a fierce competitor for 4 weeks, allowing just 35 total points in a 4 game SU/ATS winning streak, but were beaten 30-21 in Buffalo last week. Teams that win and cover 4 straight games, then lose and don't cover average 12.5ppg in their next game, and are 0-4, so the lesson may very well be, 4 games does not a season make. let's remember, the Texans full body of work is 6-6, and they are a team that has been out-scored by their opponent on the season. New England's last game was a fluke, as the Eagles had a 100 yard INT for a TD, an 83 punt return for a TD, and a blocked punt for a TD. New England beat the Eagles at the line of scrimmage 427-228. Not many games in the NFL where you out-gain your opponent by 200 yards and lose at home, especially as a huge favorite. (Just 4 times since 1989, that a home favorite of -6 or more lost when out-gaining their opponent by 195 yards or more). While many may worry about the injury riddled New England offense, they gained 402 yards, and their season average is 404, so the injuries had little if any impact, as the Belichick offense is a system, not a star, other than of course, Tom Brady. Tom Brady is 5-1 vs Houston in his career and has averaged 34.5ppg against them with a passer rating of 101.4. Since the start of the 2003 season, New England is 85-44-3 ATS with a line from +3 to -7, including 48-27-3 ATS on the road, and 30-10-1 ATS if their opponent is off a loss, 27-6-1 ATS if their opponent is over .200. My NFL GOY is on New England.

The New England Patriots have certainly struggled offensively of late, due to a lot of key injuries. They have also struggled playing on grass. They have played on grass 11 times, since September 10, 2012, and they are averaging a not so Patriot-like 21.6ppg. That compares to 32.6ppg over the same period on artificial turf. Houston has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less, and are allowing just 13ppg in their last 5 at home. Think the mere mention of Tom Brady and the Patriots has this total beyond where it should be, and right now the New England offense isn't in peak form, nor does it have all its weapons. They also have a history of not scoring much on grass. Make the play on the under.

The Green Bay Packers may have saved their season a week ago, as Aaron Rodgers threw a 61 yard Hail Mary that was answered, as Green Bay stole a win in Detroit. All that did was mask the major problems this team has. It avoided the struggling Packers from losing their 5th game in their last 6 after a 6-0 start. Aaron Rodgers threw 2 INT's in each of the last 2 games, for the 1st time in 3 years, and has not had a passer rating of 100 or more in 6 straight games. Dallas won for the first time without Tony Romo last week, and surprisingly in the NFC Least, and 4-8 they are 1 game out of first place. Dallas is +4 yards a game from the line of scrimmage, while Green Bay is -16 yards, so these teams are a toss-up, and this line is way out of hand. Dallas fits a 48-14 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Dallas.

I said it last week, and I'll repeat it here. The Raiders look to be a vastly improved team at 5-7, but hold on. Let`s take a look at the `opportunistic` Raiders 5 wins. They beat Tennessee on the road, a team that is now 0-11 SU in their last 11 home games. They beat the jets who were in the midst of a 1-4 SU run. They beat San Diego, a team in the midst of an 0-6 SU run. They beat the Browns, a team in the midst of a 1-7 run. They beat the Ravens, a team in the midst of a 1-6 run. That is 5 wins vs teams in the midst of negative streaks of 3-34 SU! Hardly a sign of a team on the rise. Meanwhile, Denver is a better offense without Peyton Manning at this stage of his career, but make no mistake, the Broncos win with defense, and a new found running game, pounding the rock for 483 yards the last 3 games. Oakland has failed to generate 100 yards on the ground in each of their last 4 games. Denver is 6-0-1 ATS this season when holding their opponent to less than 100 rushing yards, and 145-69-7 ATS all-time. That brings me to a rushing profile situation that is 26-5 ATS. Make the play on Denver.

This looks like an all-time sucker line to me. Carolina is 12-0 and has been beating up on everyone. the Falcons haven't covered a game since the Eisenhower administration, yet Carolina is just better than a TD favorite at home. Smells fishy to me. What most don't realize is Atlanta is out-gaining their opponents by 45 yards a game, and Carolina by just 47. These teams are even from the line of scrimmage, so why such diametrically opposed results? First off, Carolina has forced 29 turnovers, and second Cam Newton, has 19 red-zone TD's to 0 INT's. Many may feel Ryan is throwing too many INT's, but the fact is, both Newton and Ryan on the season throw INT's on 2.7% of their passes, dead even. Teams playing on the road as a dog that lost their last game to fall to 6-6 are 6-1 ATS playing a winning team, and for that matter they are also 6-1 SU! (4-0 SU/ATS vs teams that are 7-4, 8-3, 8-3, and 9-3). Carolina is a very good team, but everything has broken right for them, and Newton's 19 TD and 0 INT will not get through this game. (I predict he gets picked in the red-zone). Atlanta fits a 96-41 ATS situation based in part on their loss last week on the road. Make the play on Atlanta.

Johnny Manziel's NFL start has been a rocky one, and he has already worn out his welcome in Cleveland. That being said, he will get the start on Sunday, and it is likely more of a move to showcase him for a trade at some point, or a final shot at an NFL career, that so far has gone bad on and off the field. The Browns are 2-10 and have failed to make the playoffs for a 12th straight year, and their last 4 games will feature a lot of auditions for some young players on the roster. If that doesn't warrant trouble for Manziel the fact that Travis Benjamin and Andrew Hawkins both may miss, or at best not close to 100%, an offense that can't move the ball will be further hampered. QB Blaine Gabbert has been an upgrade to Colin Kaepernick, but don't be fooled by the 26 points last week vs Chicago, as they generated just 273 total yards, and the Niners are averaging just 13ppg in their last 6. Make the play on the under.

The Detroit Lions looked to be on their way to a 4th straight win last week, until Aaron Rodgers heaved a 61 yard Hail Mary for the win as time expired. The play was made possible after the Packers last play ended with a face mask penalty against Detroit, to give the Packers one final chance, and to their credit they cashed in. the Rams are another story all together. Injuries have crippled this team, and a team that started 4-3, and looked playoff caliber, has sunk to 5 straight losses. Those 4 wins saw 2 come against Seattle, and Arizona, but they went from a team out-scoring opponents, to one that has been beaten by an average score of 26.4-10.8. The defense has fallen apart and the offense has been the worst in the league, allowing opponents to key on Todd Gurley, and the entire Ram offense has not gained 100 yards in a game in their last 4, after dominating on the ground. The Detroit defense has not allowed more than 372 yards to any team over the last 5 games. That puts them in rare company, as just 2 other NFL teams have done so. Nick Foles is 1-5 ATS in his career as a home dog, with a passer rating of under 80. St. Louis just fired OC Frank Cignetti, in favor of Rob Boras. remember, the week Detroit fired Joe Lombardi, for Jim Bob Cooter, they lost 45-10. Miami after firing Bill Lazor, got 15, but Indy got 27 after firing Pep Hamilton, but I think the Indy offense had/has more potential than STL, and Miami, and St. Louis.

Quote by Fisher:
 
Rams coach Jeff Fisher said he was "almost out of answers" in trying to fix the team's offensive woes.
 
I'm not a fan of Boras, if you follow his career starting at Benedictine Univ in 1998 (head coach 3-7), and to DePauw, Texas, UNLV, Bears, Jags...et al, he is a loser! Fisher is done, his 4 years in St. Louis have seen regression every year in the win column. The defense has been on the field so much, it isn't holding up anymore. (8 TD's first 7 games, and 11 in last 4).
 
Detroit just simply has a better attitude right now, think the fork has been cast for STL. Always risk on every play, just see the value on Detroit here, and 4 straight wins and covers on extended rest, which may minimize the blow of the last loss. Finally, a team in the 2nd half of the season (game 9 on), that is at least 3 games below .500, and playing on the road after a close loss of less than 7 points, still believes, as they are 183-106 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

This game fits one of my strongest situations in the NFL, one that is 45-5-1 ATS, and since I discovered it, the result has been 23-1-1 ATS. It doesn't come up often, but when it does, it is one of few I play blindly. Make the play on Indianapolis.

When the Philadelphia Eagles signed DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews it appeared they were going to have a very potent offense, and a punishing running game, to compliment their fast style of play, and air assault. Buffalo ended up with LeSean McCoy who has been good, but not great. The Eagles offensive woes were well hidden, as they generated just 248 yards vs New England last week, but got 3 TD's without the offense on the field. It was the 2nd consecutive week they generated less than 250 total yards. Philadelphia has allowed 118 points in their last 3 games, and that tends to focus the practice week, and put an emphasis on defense, as NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points in 3 straight weeks, are 129-164 O/U, so the under is 56% on the blind. Watch what happens however when that 3 game total reaches greater than 110 points allowed in 3 straight games. It is 30-58-2 O/U or the under is 65.9%! Make the play on the under.

The St. Louis offense has been the worst in the league, allowing opponents to key on Todd Gurley, and the entire Ram offense has not gained 100 yards in a game in their last 4, after dominating on the ground. The Detroit defense has not allowed more than 372 yards to any team over the last 5 games. That puts them in rare company, as just 2 other NFL teams have done so.

Quote by Fisher:

 Rams coach Jeff Fisher said he was `almost out of answers` in trying to fix the team`s offensive woes.

 I`m not a fan of Boras, if you follow his career starting at Benedictine Univ. in 1998 (head coach 3-7), and to DePauw, Texas, UNLV,bears, Jags...et al, he is a loser! Fisher is done, his 4 years in St. Louis have seen regression every year in the win column. The defense has been on the field so much, it isn`t holding up anymore. (8 TD`s first 7 games, and 11 in last 4). This game fits a totals situation which is 110-75 and the play is on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. There has never been a 12-0 team that generates less yards per play than the average allowed by the schedule of opponents they play. Such is the case of Carolina 5.5 v teams allowing 5.8. They have tremendously over-achieved their stats, but that does not last forever. Atlanta, much like Green Bay, opened the season 5-0 averaging 32.4ppg. They have since averaged 16.7ppg, while the defense has gotten markedly better, despite more time on the field at 20.7ppg. Carolina has allowed just 5 yards a play, and has been the best against the pass. This game fits a situation that is 158-86, and the play is on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. The Chiefs have gone from 1-5 to 7-5 with 6 straight wins allowing just 16.2ppg. San Diego is a one-dimensional offense, that has not run for 100 yards since week 2. Teams playing after failing to run the ball for 100 yards in 9 straight games have seen the total points in their games equal 38.3, and the under covers 60% of the time, with 11 of the last 14 going under as well, with those games generating an even less 35.1 total points. This game fits a very strong under situation which is 158-86 as well. Make the play on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. The next thing to do is look at the total posted and see 50. I like to see similar games in the range of 4 points on each side of that, and NFL division games with a total of 46-54 have seen the under go 55.7% to the under on about 300 games. That becomes 56.6% when 2 winning teams are involved. I also have a situation which is very strong at 86-158 O/U. Make the play on the under.

There is no bigger rivalry in college football than Army vs Navy. These teams have been going at it since 1890. Army has not been at or near the same level as Navy over the last decade or so and it has led to 13 straight Navy wins. This is certainly not the widest talent gap between these 2 teams, but the attention Navy has gotten this year has inflated the line in a big way, and the 22.5 posted in this one, is the largest line in history, at least going back to 1980. These teams will run about a total of 125 plays in this game which is very low, simply because the ball is going to be on the ground 85% or more of the time. Therefore, teams that run the triple option, or flex-bone, tend to be great bets when playing as huge dogs of greater than 19 points, where Georgia Southern (6-1 ATS), Air Force (9-6 ATS), Navy (36-16-1 ATS), and Army (31-18-2 ATS), are a combined 82-41-3 ATS and cover 67% of the time. Army is 2-1 ATS vs Navy when this applies. When the 4 option teams mentioned above play each other to a line of greater than +19, the dog is 7-3 ATS, so it has held in head-to-head meetings as well, and the last 5 times a team was getting more than 2 TD's in this game, they are 4-1 ATS. Make the play on Army.

The Army v Navy game is one of my favorites, can't remember the last time I missed the game. They have been going at it since the late 1800s, and Navy has certainly had the upper hand, with a series longest 13 game winning streak. these teams both run the flex-bone, or triple-option, and in all their meetings they have gone over the posted total for this game just 7 times in their over 100 meeting history. Granted, in the early days there simply wasn't many games scoring this many points, but that being said, the last 9 games have averaged just 39.8 total combined points with the under prevailing in all 9 games, and no game has seen more than 48 points scored. It seems that when the game is expected to be non-competitive with a posted line of greater than -13, the total points scored is even less. There have been 8 such games 9most of which have been played in the last decade), and never has their been more than 41 combined points scored, when the line is over 13, and in fact the average is just a paltry 31.7ppg. Teams that run the option, can obviously defend it, as they defend it in practice every week. Games between the 3 Military Academies at the FBS level (Army, Navy, and Air Force)have seen the total go 22-7 to the under over the last decade. (Army v Air Force 5-5 O/U but -5.25 ppg under avg), Army v Navy 0-9 O/U -15.67ppg to the under), Navy v Air Force 2-8 O/U -7.35ppg to the under). All together that is 22-7 O/U with the average combined points scored at less than 42ppg! Seems like there is a lot of value here on a total that has been posted in the 50s. Make the play on the under.

I'm not sure if people really know how ad this Minnesota team really is, after all they are 8-4, and right in line for winning the NFC North. That being said, I will be surprised if they even make the playoffs. This team is really awful. Things could not have broken out any better or favorable for this team. I will back that statement up by examining their 8 wins:

week 2 DETROIT:  Lions were in the midst of a 1-7 run
week 3 SD        Chargers were in the midst of a 1-8 run
week 6 KC        Chiefs were in the midst of an 0-5 run
week 7 DETROIT   Lions were in the midst of a 1-7 run
week 8 CHI       Bears were in the midst of a 2-5 run
week 9 STL       Rams were in the midst of a 0-5 run
week 10 OAK      Raiders were in the midst of an 0-3 run
week 12 ATL      Falcons were in the midst of an 0-5 run

Are you serious, I'm not sure an 8-4 team has ever won their 8 games vs teams that combine to be in the midst of runs that add up to 5-40 SU! I'd bet it has never occurred!

This team was blown out at home by GB and Seattle, and for good reason, they are a poor football team, that is 8-4, played so many bad teams, but not just bad teams, bad teams that were in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. Through all of that, Minnesota is -27 yards a game from the line of scrimmage this year. Adrien Peterson has run well again this season, but in the 3 top games vs Minnesota, Green Bay, and Seattle he did not gain 100 yards in any of them. Arizona is the best team in the NFC, not by record, by stats. They out-gain their opponents by over 100 yards a game, and have held their last 6 opponents to 73.5 rushing yards a game. NFL Thursday Night home favorites from week 11 on, in conference games, but not a division game, are 12-0-1 ATS from week 11 on, and winning by 14.5 points per game, and covering by an average of 10.17pts. Make the play on Arizona.

The Dallas Cowboys are 3-8 on the season, but have yet to win a game without Tony Romo at QB. They think they are still in the playoff hunt, but let's face it, a team at 3-8, winless without their starting QB, who will be out again, is not a playoff contender. Matt Cassel has been much less than Romo, as he is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt, and has thrown 5 INT's to 5 TD passes on the season. Dallas has completed just 20 passes of 20 yards or more on the season, the worst mark in the NFL. Darren McFadden has not been running the ball very well at 3.8 yards per attempt, and has rushed for 35 yards or less in more than half the Cowboy's games. Washington QB Kirk Cousins has been the best NFL QB at home in his last 5 starts here, as he has a 115.9 passer rating with the Skins averaging 29ppg. The Washington defense has also been very strong at home, and in their last 2 here held both high powered offenses of the NY Giants and New Orleans Saints to 14 points each. , and 5 of their 6 home opponents have scored 20 or less. Monday Night Football home favorites from week 11 out are 26-1 SU and 23-4 ATS vs an opponent that scored less than 20 points in their last game. (22-3 ATS if the line is less than -16, and a subset that is 20-0 ATS. Make the play on Washington.

The Indianapolis Colts have certainly been better offensively behind 40 year old Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck has led them to 4 straight wins, to revive the Colts season at 6-5. That feat has him joined only by Bret Farve, and Warren Moon, as quarterbacks to win 4 straight games in their 40s. The Colts offense, not nearly as explosive as last year, has still managed to score 20 or more points in 7 straight games. Teams that score 20 or more points in 7 straight games average 26.2ppg in almost 400 previous occurrences, certainly a prerequisite with their poor defense. Pittsburgh scored 30 last week and still lost, but I think with both teams at 6-5 and badly needing a win, the defenses will be out too prove they belong here, and the points won't come as freely as they appear. That being the case, it further enhances the edge by the huge dog here. Late season NFL Sunday Night Football home favorites have been a house of horrors. Week 12 and out, SNF home favorites are just 35-56-1 ATS, and just 9-20 ATS laying more than a TD. (2-7 ATS if their opponent is off a win). This game is closer than it looks, make the play on Indianapolis.

The New England Patriots are off their first loss of the season, and will take on the struggling Philadelphia Eagles at home, in a Sunday Nighter at New England. The Patriots offense has always been great with the Brady/Belichick combination. They have lost a lot of receivers to injury, but Belichick has proven, it is next man up in his system, and don't be surprised if an unheard of entity has a big game. The Pats since the start of the 2010 season, have averaged 33.1ppg after a loss. There is one glaring stat however, that pertains to Philadelphia for this game. The last 26 times they have taken the field after losing as a dog, and they scored less than 23 points, they are 26-0 to the over, beating the total by 10.67ppg. Make the play on the over.

The Kansas City Chiefs have reached rarified air. Since at least 1989, the Chiefs have become the first team to start the season at 1-5, and follow with 5 straight wins to get over .500 at 6-5, and if the season ended today, they would be in the playoffs. All this after losing their best player, RB Jamaal Charles to a season ending knee injury. The formula for Kansas City has been consistent. Efficient offense, great defense, and destroying opponents in the turnover battle, which over the last 6 games is an amazing 16-1 and +15. The Chiefs have not turned the ball over in their last 5 games, becoming just the 3rd team since 1989 to do so (New England 3 times, and San Francisco 1 time). Those teams went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, but covered all 3 as a single digit favorite, winning by an average of 17.6ppg. The Raiders look to be a vastly improved team at 5-6, but hold on. Let's take a look at the "opportunistic" Raiders 5 wins. They beat Tennessee on the road, a team that is now 0-11 SU in their last 11 home games. They beat the jets who were in the midst of a 1-4 SU run. They beat San Diego, a team in the midst of an 0-6 SU run. They beat the Browns, a team in the midst of a 1-7 run. They beat the Ravens, a team in the midst of a 1-6 run. That is 5 wins vs teams in the midst of negative streaks of 3-34 SU! Hardly a sign of a team on the rise. The Chiefs are playing at a level that the Raiders haven't seen this season, and judging by the Raiders 5 wins, only the circumstances of their schedule show a team that has improved, so the value is on the road team here, make the play on Kansas City.

The Minnesota Vikings are the surprise leader of the NFC North, as their win last week over the struggling Atlanta Falcons 20-10, earned them the top rung. Seattle was tested at home vs Pittsburgh, and that was a difficult match up for the Seahawks. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisburger loves to take shots down the field, and Seattle has been very vulnerable to that this season. Fortunately for them, they will not face that here vs Teddy Bridgewater. Minnesota runs the ball exceptionally well with a healthy Adrien Peterson, but their passing attack is lacking considerably, generating just 6.3 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams that would combine to average allowing 6.9. This is not the type of team that gives Seattle trouble, as the Seahawks are 15-1 SU out-scoring these teams 28.9-14.8, when facing a team with a season to date average per passing attempt of 6.5 yards or less. Contrast that vs elite passing teams, and they are 1-2 SU, yielding 23ppg! many have declared that this Seattle team is in decline at 6-5. I disagree. They have led all of their 11 games into the 4th quarter. For further proof, I went back to last year, and found a Seattle team that was 7-4, that out-gained their opponents through 11 games 359-297 (+62 yards per game), this year at 6-5, they are 374-325 (+49 yards per game). If you want to call 13 yards a game in decline, your drinking the kool-aid. The fact is Minnesota has been extremely lucky. How many teams in NFL history through 11 games have been 8-3, but getting out-gained at the line of scrimmage? Such is the case with Minnesota, and that is in large part due to their defense that has made opponents gain 19.1 yards per point, which I guarantee you will drop before the season is over, it is an anomaly. Seattle is in every game they play, and has not lost a game by more than 10 points since week 8, 2011, it is assuring knowing going in, your team, at the very least is going to have a chance to win the game late. I don't want to diminish the Vikings, they are an improved team, but are they ready to beat a team like Seattle? They lost to Green Bay, by a lot, a team that is struggling, while Seattle has gone 4-1 in their last 5 games. Minnesota has beaten 2 teams with a winning record, both 6-5, one was Kansas City who was 1-5 at the time, and the other was Atlanta, who is no 1-5 also after their loss to Minnesota last week, failing to cover in 7 straight. I see a team that is 8-3, but in many ways, extremely over-valued. teams that are covering over 80% of the time at this stage of the season lure bettors, while the line begins to shift the other way, not the place you want to be. Seattle has played 2 clean games (no turnovers), and from week 10 out in the regular season, teams that have done so, and are playing on the road in a competitive game with a line from -3.5 to +3.5 are 31-5 ATS, since the start of the 2004 season, with a subset of 27-3 ATS that Seattle also qualifies for. Make the play on Seattle.

The Houston Texans, like the Kansas City Chiefs were left for dead, with horrible starts. They have both rebounded, and Houston has run the streak to 4 straight, with 4 straight covers, and moved to 6-5 on the season. The defense appears to be the catalyst, as they have allowed 35 points in their last 4 games. Most will view this as a reason to give the under a look, after all Houston just kept New Orleans out of the end-zone for the first time since X-Mas Eve 2005, and no one seems to be able to score on them. here is the trouble with that logic. The total is now pushed so far down, the value is the other way, and so is history. Houston is still a team that is allowing over 20ppg, despite the 4 game stout defensive efforts. teams that have allowed less than 10 points total in their last 4 games, but on the season allow more than 18.2ppg, are 15-4 to the over in their next game, with the opponent scoring just about 23ppg. (24.6ppg on the road and 8-2 to the over, allowing 20 or more points in 9 straight games!)Bills home games are producing over 50ppg this season. Make the play on the over.

This one has the appearance of a runaway Bear's win. Chicago has played themselves back into the playoff hunt, and with a win in this game over San Francisco, they would even their record at 6-6. The Bears however are just 1-4 at home on the season and have dropped 11 of their last 14 here. The Niners have yet to win on the road this season, but that tends to work to a team's advantage here as teams from week 9 through week 15 that are winless on the road are 189-127-3 ATS covering 60% of the time. Teams that are battling to get to .500 in week 13 are also just 40-57-2 ATS. teams that are 3 or more games under .500 in the 2nd half of the season and on the road after a one possession loss, are 182-107 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

There isn't much to say about these teams, as they are both horrible. I just have some powerful situations going on one of them which are 182-107 ATS, as well as an 11-0-1 ATS situation, and a 13-1 ATS situation. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The biggest surprise of the 2015 Big-10 Championship game, is the fact that Ohio St. will not be playing in it. Taking the field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will be the 12-0 Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan St. Spartans. Iowa is the surprise entry here, especially at 12-0 on the season, but despite the perfect record, they need to win here to get into the playoffs, as the inner will be one of the final 4 participants for the National Championship, that is a certainty. The issue here for Iowa is the tainted 12-0 record. They have not faced Michigan St. or Ohio St. in each of the last 2 years, the best 2 teams in the Big-10. This season, they have 5 wins by 1 possession, and their 4 out of conference games were against Illinois St., Iowa St., N. Texas, and Pitt...a team they beat by just 3 at home on a miracle 57 yard field goal as time ran out, and had a +1 turnover margin in the game. Iowa has allowed just 2 TD's in the first quarter all season, but overall the defense is showing some wear. The Hawkeyes allowed 18.6ppg in their first 8, with just 1 opponent topping 20, while the last 4 shows 25.5ppg with all 4 opponents scoring 20+. Michigan St. became the first team in NCAA Football, at least since 1980, or perhaps ever, that started the season 6-0 SU, but 0-6 ATS. They are a heartbreaking 1 point loss at Nebraska, in a game they led by 12 points with 4 minutes to go, but ended on a 30 yard Nebraska TD pass, or they would be 12-0 and probably ranked #1. The defense, which what has made this team great, is back in business. The last 3 opponents, have scored a grand total of 37 points against them, and Ohio St. was held to 132 total yards. They have proven they can dominate the best of offenses, and Iowa is far from the best, although good, but I think the Hawkeyes will struggle to move the ball here. The facts are simple. Michigan St. is more tested, with excellent results, and is the better team on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Iowa is feeling the pressure, and playing with a tired defense. many don't realize over the last 4 games against Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota, none of which are better than .500 and combined are 16-30, Iowa has allowed 400+ yards to all of them, and in the 4 games have combined to be out-gained by those 4 teams! Michigan St. fits an 86-37 ATS situation, and make the play on Michigan St., MY NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH.

North Carolina has a lot of things going for it right now. They have been destroying virtually every team in their path, they get the Championship Game in Charlotte, close to home, and they feel disrespected in the polls, as they are 10th in the latest playoff poll. That is all sound reasoning, but a lot of bettors tend to love how this team scores quickly, and wins big, while they feel Clemson at 12-0 isn't as good as the record. That is far from the truth. Clemson is 12-0 because they out-gain their opponent by 213 yards a game, and as good as they are offensively, the defense is equally good. North Carolina has gained 101 yards more per game than their opponent, so they are 112 yards in arrears to Clemson in this area. Moreover, the Heels played an extremely soft schedule, that included 2 FBS teams, and lost to a lower tier SEC team in South Carolina. The bigger issue here is the fact that the Heels average 10 less snaps a game than their opponent. That isn't so much a product of their bad defense, as much as it is their electric offense that scores on few plays and quickly. What happens when that is not the case, vs a strong defense in Clemson, who by the way runs 15 more plays a game than they defend. I project Clemson to run more plays, at more yards per play, and the line here is way too short. Clemson is the real deal here, and North Carolina has had a great season, but with 0 wins vs a ranked team, the numbers, which fall far short of those by Clemson, just don't add up. Make the play on Clemson.

This is a most challenging match up for Air Force as they are going against one of the best defenses in the country in San Diego St. Air Force, like many Military schools run the flex-bone, or a variation there of, and the ball is going to be on the ground a lot, as the Falcons run the ball 83.3% of the time. One of the biggest advantages they have had this season, is they run 10 more plays than their opponents. I'm not so sure that will be the case here. The last 2 years San Diego has held Air Force to 45 rushing attempts per game, 15 below this year's average, but more importantly, just 90 attempts for 309 yards or 3.4 yards per carry. It may be even worse this time around as San Diego St. has held their last 3 opponents to 177 rushing yards on 95 carries, or 1.86 yards per carry, and just 2.8 yards per carry on the season. San Diego St. QB Maxwell Smith hurt his knee in the last game and his replacement, Christian Chapman was just 6-9 and 44 yards, but the running game dominated for San Diego St. and the defense doesn't allow much. This game fits a 300-187 ATS situation, and the San Diego St. defense is allowing 11.3ppg in their 8-0 conference slate, and at the same time, they have scored 30+ in 6 straight games, but may need just 20 here. Line seems low with the questionable status of Smith, and will only rise if he is deemed fit to play, but don't think he is needed here, as the defense will win this game. Make the play on San Diego St.

Kansas St. Coach Bill Snyder had led his team to greatness at home, but this has been a very trying season. All is not lost however, as a win at home Saturday will get the Wildcats to 6-6 and become Bowl eligible, although a shortage of teams to fill Bowls, is going to necessitate several 5-7 teams in the mix, and a 5-7 Big-12 team would be attractive, but the Wildcats don't want to depend on that. The Cats at one time were 3-6 on the season, but 2 straight wins have them at 5-6. remember, they covered as road dog to Oklahoma St. and as a home dog to TCU, but failed in their next 2 at home vs Oklahoma, and at Texas. I think that was more of a product of having played Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, and Baylor in 4 of 5 games, which just left this team ragged. W. Virginia went through a similar stretch and did not stand up well either, but have come back to win 4 straight, and cover their last 3, against more reasonable competition. I think the Mountaineers at 7-4 don't have a whole lot of incentive here. That is backed up by the fact that "tweener" teams at 7-4 from the Pac-12, Big-10, Big-12, and the ACC are just 61-105-2 ATS, and 8-30 ATS since 2010, and just 3-14 ATS on the road, and just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a road favorite. They are also 0-9 ATS playing a team that is .500 or less, and 1-15 ATS vs a team that is .600 or less, losing the last 10 occurrences. Teams that are playing to a line of less than -3 that scored 35 or more points in their last 2, winning the last one by more than 17 are 95-51 ATS, and their are a myriad of home dog situations that are on Bill Snyder, and I think where those didn't work during their impossible 5 game stretch earlier in the season, they should be more reliable in this spot. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Texas St. Bobcats are in a big trouble here. They are 3-8 on the season, and have covered just 3 games all year, and that was to Prairie View A&M, S. Alabama (5-6), and LA Monroe (1-10). They have been posted on average in their 8 losses as a +6.4 point favorite, but have proceeded to lose the 8 games by 22.3ppg, or underachieving the line by 16ppg. they have allowed 46.2ppg in the 8 losses, and are 0-8 ATS in the 8 games, and are now 3-15 ATS in their last 18 losses. Arkansas St. is 8-3 on the season, losing only to USC,Toledo, and Missouri. They are averaging over 50ppg in their 8 wins, where the average margin has been 24.3ppg while averaging being a favorite of just -11.6ppg, over-achieving the line by 13ppg. This looks like a colossal blowout, make the play on Arkansas St.

The MAC Conference Championship Game will feature Northern Illinois and Bowling Green. This will be the 6th straight year that Northern Illinois will be playing for the MAC Championship, but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5, and this will also be the 3rd straight year these teams will meet for the MAC Title, and they have split the previous 2. Northern Illinois backed into the title game after losing to Ohio, U. as Toledo lost in an attempt to clinch. Northern Illinois is actually a below average offensive team, as they generate -0.2 yards per play vs the average of what their opponents combine to allow. That is not the case with Bowling Green who averages +1.3 yards per play above average, and has a very potent passing game. Bowling Green has made substantial progress defensively this season, after allowing 36.3ppg in their first 6, they have allowed 19.2ppg in their last 6. The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 7.5 points, and 11-3 ATS in that spot over the last 3 years, and 17-5 ATS in that spot since 2009. Northern Illinois lost QB Drew Hare a few games back, and Ryan Graham, although not bad, has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game, and with the need for points here, against a high octane offense, he may be out of his comfort zone, as he has thrown 3 INT's in 81 passes, to Hare's 4 in 258. Bowling Green fits into a strong 86-37 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Bowling Green.

The Green Bay Packers started the season at 6-0, but in the process did not beat a single winning team, an omen of the hidden problems this team is facing. They have since gone 1-3, and have become a negative team from the line of scrimmage, being out-gained by their opponents. No one realized how much the loss of Jordy Nelson would impact the passing game, but it clearly has. Many thought Randall Cobb off a huge year in 2014 in a secondary role to nelson would become the top guy, but drawing the toughest CB assignment each week, he is dropping passes, and can't get open. It trickles right down the line, as Green Bay is now a below average passing team, even with the greatness of Aaron Rodgers, who is getting beaten to death week after week. Detroit has won 3 straight games, and are a different team than the one that started 1-7, as they are better on both sides of the ball, as well as confident. teams with a winning percentage of less than .400 on a 3 game winning streak are 13-8 ATS including 9-3 ATS if their opponent is off a loss. The Lions have held each of their last 2 opponents to under 230 total yards, have everything going right now, and a win here would lift them to 5-7, and suddenly in the playoff mix. Make the play on Detroit.

The Baltimore Ravens were having a horrible season, but the injuries which are part of the reason, have depleted this team. Arguably 5 of those injuries are to the 5 best players on the Raven's roster in WR Steve Smith, WR Bruce Perriman, QB Joe Flacco, RE Justin Forsett, and LB Terrell Suggs. Flacco will see his 138 game starting streak end, and the Ravens have not played a game without him at QB in 8 years. He will be replaced by Matt Schaub, who hasn't started a game in over 2 years, and the last 21 he has started as a dog he is 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS, with a QB rating of 78.4. Cleveland isn't exactly without problems of their own, having lost 5 straight games, but their last win was in Baltimore, when the Ravens were a healthier team. Monday Night Football home favorites from week 11 on playing a team that scored less than 20 points in their last game are 23-3 ATS since 2000. The Ravens have not only had to deal with injuries, but their mistakes. Baltimore has been penalized over 100 yards in each of their last 2 games. teams that have totaled more than 100 yards in penalties in 2 straight games, are 13-29 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Cleveland.

The New England Patriots are once again the class of the NFL, and the Belichick/Brady combo has been lethal since the tandem has been together. The pats 10 wins are the 13th straight season they have won 10 or more games, and since 2001 they are 201-62 SU as well as 150-106-7 ATS. That includes very profitable 32-16-2 ATS record in regular season games vs a team that is .750 or better. (10-1-1 ATS week 10-14). The Denver offense has scored just 15ppg behind Brock Osweiler. The significance is this. Since 2001 when the Pats allow 15 points or less they are 74-11-5 ATS! (88-2 SU). They are also 105-31-7 ATS allowing less than 21. needless to say, Denver looks to be in big trouble here. Brady against a team that allows 15.3-21.3 points a game, in other words, an above average defense, has been 25-13 ATS, with the Pats scoring 30.4ppg. The Pats are a bargain anytime you can get them at less than -9 as since 2001 they are 122-69-7 ATS in this spot. Make the play on New England.

The Seattle Seahawks have gotten themselves back to .500 at 5-5, but are outside looking in at the playoff picture. A closer look shows they have not defeated a team with a winning record all season, with their 5 wins coming against teams that have a combined record of 16-34. The 5 losses have come to teams that are 37-13. The offense has been lacking, and the offensive line is problematic, but where they have been more vulnerable than ever is to the deep ball and no one throws it better, or more frequently than Ben Roethlisberger, and that makes the Steelers an attractive play here. the Steelers are averaging 25.7ppg with Ben at QB, and winning by 7 points a game. Seattle is not the same team we have seen in the last 2 years, and the last 3 good offenses they saw in Carolina, Cincinnati, and Arizona torched them for an average of 31ppg. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

The NY Giants and the Washington Redskins have had a heated divisional rivalry for a long time. The Giants have certainly gotten the best of it at 31-21-1 ATS in the last 53 meetings. This game comes down to a horrible situation that plays against Washington. teams that have as many or more penalties, than they do 1st downs in their last game are 82-126 ATS in their next game, and there is a subset of that which is 1-27 ATS. meanwhile, the Giants find themselves in a situation which is 22-1-2 ATS, and another that is 50-18 ATS. Make the play on New York.

The Miami Dolphins and the NY Jets have both seen their playoff hopes take a hit, and neither can afford a loss this week. The Jets own one of the best all-time division records against an opponent with a 35-15-3 ATS mark in the last 51 played in this series, and an even better 24-8-3 ATS mark lately, including 4 straight ATS wins. The Jets are also 19-7-1 ATS vs the Dolphins if they won the last meeting. (11-4-1 ATS if the win occurred in the current season), and 5-0-1 ATS if the winning margin was by double-digits. Miami has not been able to throw the ball, and has run 9 less plays a game than their opponent, and have been out-gained by 54ypg. The Jets are running more plays, and are good against the run and pass, particularly at home where they allow opponents just 4.9 yards a play. make the play on New York.

It looked very bleak for the Kansas City Chiefs, as they started the season 1-5, and lost their top offensive player in Jamaal Charles. The last month however, this team has done a quick about face, as they have won 4 straight games to get to 5-5 and back in the playoff chase. The Chiefs defense has allowed just 12.3ppg over their last 6 games. They own a 12-0 turnover advantage in their last 4 games, all wins. While all those things look great, history shows us it is time to get off the bandwagon. teams that have an ATS margin composite of greater than 46 total points in their last 3 games are 107-132 ATS in their next game. teams that win 4 straight games to get to .500 are 5-10 ATS in their next game, including 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points. Many will feel after a big game last week vs New England, the Bills will be flat here, but in their last 48 games following New England, they are 31-16-1 ATS, including 13-3 ATS if it was a road loss. The Bills also find themselves in a strong 61-22 ATS situation, and an unrelated perfect situation which is 18-0-1 ATS. Make the play on Buffalo. Make the play on Buffalo.

I'm not sure there is a team in the country that has galvanized itself, improved tremendously game-by-game as have the San Diego St. Aztecs. After losing 3 straight to Cal, S. Alabama, and Penn St., and sitting at 1-3, the Aztecs have gone 7-0 SU/ATS. They have dominated on both sides of the ball out-scoring their opponents 36.9 to 10.9. They have won their last 5 games by 23 points or more. The Aztecs in their 7 game winning streak have had the #1 defense in the country, as they have allowed 2.5 yards per rush against them, and just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, for an overall defensive average of a nations best 3.77 yards per play. They also fit in a situation that is 109-42 ATS, while Nevada is in a 19-50 ATS spot. Make the play on San Diego St.

Coach Bob Diaco has don a vey good job with this UConn Huskie`s team. Their win over previously 10-0 Houston on Saturday was gigantic in many ways. It got the Huskies Bowl eligible, and ensured extra needed practices for having done so. That also leaves the Huskies in a very flat spot. UConn faces the double jeopardy of having become Bowl eligible, as well as winning as a huge dog. That leaves them in situations that are 2-30, 44-90, and 42-105 ATS. temple is 9-2, and needs a in to clinch the AAC East and play for the championship. They will have both eyes open for this one, and lay it on the Huskies. Make the play on Temple.

The UTEP Miners are 4-7 on the season, and they will play on the road at North Texas, a team that is just 1-10 on the season. UTEP dominated the Mean Green last season at home 35-17, out-gaining them 438-201. Both these teams have been horrible from the line of scrimmage this season, but North Texas has really struggled to get points out of their limited yards, as they throw for just 4.9 yards per attempt and have scored 1 point for every 22 yards gained, extremely below average, while UTEP has generated a point for every 16.9 yards gained. The Mean Green has scored 14 points or less in 7 of their 11 games, while allowing 55+ in 4 of them, and have been out-scored on the season 28.2ppg. Since 1980, there has never been a team getting out-scored by more than 28 points a game, from game 11 on, that has been posted as a favorite! UTEP has been out-scored by 14ppg themselves this season, but over their last 5 games they are 2-3 and have been out-scored by just 4ppg, against better teams. Make the play on UTEP.

This is and always has been an intense rivalry when UCLA takes on neighboring USC. Things have changed at USC, which used to produce Heisman Trophy running backs like a machine. The change has been to QB, and this year they have another good one in Cody Kessler who has thrown for 25 TD's to just 6 INT's on the season. The Trojan's however are picked in the top 10 almost annually, and never seem to live up to the billing, and at 7-4 this season, it has been yet another disappointment. This is a troubled spot for USC, who will be going against the best pass defense they have seen all season, and one of the best in the country. USC is just 4-3 in their last 7 games, and 3 of the 4 wins have all come by a single possession, and have shown little in the way of margin for error, and against a top pass defense, they appear to be on the short side of the match up here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Illinois football program had a lot of issues over the summer, dismissed the coach, and all in all has had a better season than perhaps most expected. The Fighting Illini are 5-6 and need a win to become Bowl eligible. The unfortunate thing is they started the season at 4-1, but have gone 1-5 since, beating just lowly Purdue. Outside of that Purdue game, in their last 7, they have managed just 99 total points at 14.1ppg, and in comes a very strong defensive Northwestern team, looking for their 10th win. Northwestern has held 8 teams on their schedule to 21 points or less, and the woeful Illinois offense is going to be hard pressed to get to 10 here. This Northwestern team, once a cellar-dweller in the Big-12, winning no more than 4 games in any season from 1980-1994, has won 5 or more games in 12 of their last 13 seasons, and with a win here, they will go Bowling with an opportunity to win 11 games, a mark not ever achieved by any Northwestern team in school history. Northwestern has won 4 straight, including wins vs Penn St., and Wisconsin, and owns a big upset win vs Stanford, have perhaps the best team in school history, and closing with 2 wins will clinch that deal for these kids, who will be motivated to leave their mark in history. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Alabama Crimson Tide looked to be vulnerable when they lost at home 43-37 all the way back on the 3rd game of their season. Since then the Tide defense has snuffed out every opponent's offense they have faced, allowing just a stingy 11.1ppg over their last 8 games, and possess the best stop unit in the country. It is also a Tide team that has scored 30 or more points in 9 of 11 games, and 27 or more in 10 of 11. Auburn is just 6-5, and has covered just 2 games all season, one of those by a single point, and have out-scored opponents on the season by just 1ppg. They have allowed 27ppg on the season. My numbers project the Tide with a 200 yard advantage in this game and 1.7 yards better per play. Alabama also knows with a win they could be ranked #1 in the playoffs, and no worse than #2. Make the play on Alabama.

The UTEP Miners are 4-7 on the season, and they will play on the road at North Texas, a team that is just 1-10 on the season. UTEP dominated the Mean Green last season at home 35-17, out-gaining them 438-201. Both these teams have been horrible from the line of scrimmage this season, but North Texas has really struggled to get points out of their limited yards, as they throw for just 4.9 yards per attempt and have scored 1 point for every 22 yards gained, extremely below average, while UTEP has generated a point for every 16.9 yards gained. The Mean Green has scored 14 points or less in 7 of their 11 games, while allowing 55+ in 4 of them, and have been out-scored on the season 28.2ppg. Since 1980, there has never been a team getting out-scored by more than 28 points a game, from game 11 on, that has been posted as a favorite! UTEP has been out-scored by 14ppg themselves this season, but over their last 5 games they are 2-3 and have been out-scored by just 4ppg, against better teams. Make the play on UTEP.

This game will determine the USA Conference East winner, and the right to go on to play in the Conference Championship game. W. Kentucky has run the table in conference play at 7-0, while right on their heels is Marshall at 6-1. While Marshall is 9-2 on the season, they have played a very weak schedule, and although they have not allowed more than 31 points to any team, W. Kentucky is by far the best offense they will have seen all season. We saw it last year, when a Marshall team that finished 13-1 on the season, and in 12 games did not allow any team to score more than 27 points against them, W. Kentucky scored 67. Marshall was able to answer as their offense averaged 45.6ppg a year ago, but that is not the case this year, as they average just 33ppg to a weaker schedule. W. Kentucky fits the profile of an 84-37 ATS situation for this game, and I agree. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

 The Miami, FL Hurricanes are 7-4 on the season, but they are far from a complete team. They are basically a half of a team. They defend the pass well, and offensively are a very good passing team, but at the same time they are a poor rushing team, and defend the run very poorly. Pitt is a much more balanced team, that does everything good, but not great. They are going to be in trouble in this one against a Pitt team that just tore apart, on the ground a pair of very good run stop units in Duke, and Louisville. The Panthers ran for 512 yards on 102 attempts, in those 2 games, and their run and pound offense should be extra effective against a Miami team that ha failed miserably to stop the running game. It won`t help them playing on the road, on a short week, in cold weather. One of the strengths of this Pitt team, is they don`t turn the ball over and beat themselves, with just 3 turnovers in their last 6 games. Pitt runs 8 more plays on average than their opponents, while Miami has had to defend 4 more play a game than they run, so there should also be a play advantage for the Panthers here. Pitt falls into a 76-33 ATS spot here as well. Make the play on Pittsburgh

The Chicago Bears are one of the most improved teams in the NFL, while the Green Bay packers, despite a big win last week in Minnesota are one of the biggest question marks. The Bears closed last season 0-5, and lost their first 3 this season, for an 8 game stretch of 0-8 SU. They were brutally beaten in the 8 games by an average score of 30.5-16.1. The Bears last 7 games are in stark contrast to that, as they have gone 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS, and have out-scored their opponents 168-146, and none of the losses have come by more than 3 points. The Packers are 7-3, but are a negative team from the line of scrimmage being out-gained by 27 yards a game, while the Bears are out-gaining their opponent by 11 yards a game, and in no way does that translate to a 7 point spread. The Bears also fit a situation which is 32-8 ATS, and the Packers based on their stalled drives resulting in many FG's last game, apply to a negative 36-56 ATS situation. Make the play on Chicago.

The biggest surprise in the NFL this season has been the 10-0 start by the Carolina Panthers. The numbers certainly are not overwhelming, as they have out-gained opponents by just 31 yards per game, but what they have done is score a point with every 11.9 yards gained, and allow just 1 point scored for every 17 opponent yards gained, and that is a big off-set. Dallas got a huge lift with Tony Romo back at QB, and got back in the win column with a 24-14 win at Miami. It is going to be tough for Romo to come back on 3 days rest after sitting out so long, and I think that is going to be enough of a factor in this game to make a difference. Carolina is in some extremely positive situations which are 26-3 ATS, and 30-5 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The Detroit Lions have gathered some support, as the opening lines released by West Gate Super Book last week had Philadelphia at -3 for this Turkey Day opener. That has since moved against them by 4.5 points, as Detroit has now won 2 straight games, while the Eagles were destroyed last week at home vs Tampa 45-17. Despite the horrible showing the last 2 weeks, the Eagles, unlike the Lions are still in the playoff hunt in the NFC Least. (East). Detroit is the worst team in the NFL in conference games at 29-55 SU, and just 37-47 ATS, including 19-34 ATS if taking less than 6. (3-12 ATS lately). The Eagles are the only team in the NFL that is perfect on Turkey Day with more than 2 wins, as they are 6-0 all time, and were +3 at Dallas last Thanksgiving and won 33-10. Eagles fit a 94-49 ATS bounce back situation, as well as a 22-1-2 ATS subset of that. Make the play on Philadelphia.

The Cincinnati Bengals lost for the first time this season, and are now 8-1 on the season. They sure have a lot of weapons, but questions still remain as to the big game capability of QB Andy Dalton. the Bengals, despite the roster of talent they possess, are not statistically an 8-1 team. They are just 0.2 yards per play above the average of their schedule of opponents on offense, and just 0.1 yards better on defense, and a total of 37 yards per game better than their opponents through 9 games. Arizona is 7-2 on the season, and despite 7 turnovers in their last 2 games, and a combined negative turnover margin in those 2 games of -4, they came out with 2 wins, and a 21 point total margin of victory. The Cards are a legitimate 7-2 team and perhaps even better as they rate out a total of 1.2 yards better per play than the average allowed by their schedule of opponents. The Cards are also 105 yards per game better than their opponent, in stark contrast to Cincinnati. The Bengals are in prime letdown mentality after losing their first game of the season. QB Carson palmer is playing at a higher level than he has at any point of his career, and has to be an MVP consideration at this point. His last 24 games have produced a 20-4 SU record, and 18-5-1 ATS as well, and he has lost just 2 starts during the stretch, one by 2 points, and the other by just 3. Needless to say, the Cards have won almost all of their games home or away under his leadership, and even when they have lost at home, the game was hanging on the balance of a single play. The Bengals have averaged just 19.8ppg behind Andy Dalton as a road dog in his career, while the Cards are averaging 33.6ppg on the season. This game fits a rather complicated rushing formula, that is 160-92 ATS in favor of the home team here. Make the play on Arizona.

The Green Bay Packers opened the season at 6-0, but suddenly have dropped 3 straight games. So what is going on? I wrote about these issues last week, and certainly nothing has changed, in fact they have gotten worse. The problem is complex, but it is there to be seen. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the game, along with Tom Brady. He can make players better, but he is stuck with a cast of receivers that are average at best, and yes that includes Randall Cobb. Cobb had a monster year in 2014, thanks to Jordy Nelson who drew the top corner from every team, and as a secondary receiver, Cobb excelled, but this year being the guy, with the Nelson injury, he is drawing the top corner, and it is exposing him as not being the elite receiver he was considered to be. It is a trickle down, as James Jones, DeVante Adams, are not good enough to do what Cobb did last year. Factoring into the equation is a physically, and mentally dinged up Eddie Lacey. Lacey has now been replaced by Starks, but neither have run well. The Packer offensive line without a running game, and now average passing game, is getting over-whelmed, and Rodgers is getting hit constantly, forced out of the pocket, running or dumping off passes for short gains. The Packers have 6 wins, all vs losing teams, and now they can't beat Detroit at home. Rodgers numbers are worse than any season since he became the starting QB in Green Bay. The last 3 games just 5.4 yards per attempt, the worst in the NFL! The Packer defense held up ok vs the Lions, but had given up 500 yards a game in the last 3. History tells a lot of stories, and the 2003 Minnesota Vikings, under Dante Culpepper started 6-0 SU/ATS, averaging 29.8ppg. They finished 9-7, did not make the playoffs, averaging 21.5ppg the rest of the way. The 2009 Denver Broncos started 6-0 SU/ATS, finished 8-8 did not make the playoffs. The defense went from 11ppg to 25.8ppg. The fact is, when 6-0 teams turn bad, and lose 3 straight, they don't magically come back. These are two teams that went into game 10 starting 6-0 losing 3 straight, and they both suffered losses by an average of 14.5 points. Mike McCarthy called all the plays for the Packer offense up until this year, and that is another factor. Minnesota is 7-2, and not a great team from the line of scrimmage, but a good one. Many think this is a Super Bowl caliber team in Green Bay, but it is not even a playoff team as presently constituted, so the value is against this team, until everyone starts to catch up, and that isn't this week. Make the play on Minnesota.

This game fits a pair of extremely strong totals situations, one that is 198-113, and the other 157-85. Make the play on the under.

The Seattle Seahawks have not looked the same as the team's we saw in the past 2 Super Bowls. The defense has certainly remained above average, as well as the offense, but things just don't quite look right. I would gather that if this team is ever going to make a move, it has to this week, as they are just 4-5 on the season, and another loss here, and it may be over and out for this team. San Francisco is a rested team off a huge dog win vs Atlanta at +9. certain big dog winners with rest, are 1-16 ATS in their next game. Many will look at the double-digit line here this late in the season on a team that is under .500 and say no way, but teams under .500 from week 11 on as an 11 or more point favorite are 10-0 SU winning by 21+ points a game. 924pts per game if at home). San Francisco has lost 5 games all by 14 points or more, and an average of 23.4ppg, so a blowout is certainly not a surprising result here, and history says that will be the case. Make the play on Seattle.

After 5 straight weeks of gaining 100+ yards on the ground, the St. Louis Rams generated just 94 last week, but in a 37-14 loss to the suddenly surging Bears, they had to abandon the running game. I look for them to get back on track this week vs a Baltimore team that is 2-7, and lacking play makers on defense, and a shell of a team they were just a couple years back. The Ravens 2 wins on the season were by 3 points each, and they just lost a 2 point game at home to Jacksonville, a team that had lost 13 straight games on the road prior to winning last Sunday in Baltimore. The Ravens have managed to cover just 1 game all season, doing so by a single point, amazingly however, every Raven's game this season has been decided by 1 possession, but at 2-7 now, and an opponent that won't get their blood going, I could see the toll of the season taking their fight away now, as they are not going to be a playoff team. The Rams fit a situation that is 22-0-2 ATS. 97-48, and 77-40 ATS, look to be the right choice here, statistically, emotionally, and in the right situation. Make the play on St. Louis.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Atlanta Falcons. They opened the season through 5 games averaging 32.4ppg, but their last 4 were ugly, averaging just 16.8ppg. I think they will respond here, as good teams, better than .650 off 2 straight losses have been 22-14 ATS winning by 11.5ppg as a home favorite, including 17-4 ATS to a line of -6 to -13.5, winning by 16ppg. Matt Hasselbeck will have the QB duties for Indianapolis for the foreseeable future, and I think he will struggle on the road, as he has an 81.5 passer rating as a road dog through his career, 21 TD's and 15 INT's. Atlanta is in a 112-61 ATS situation, while Indy is in a situation that is 26-69 ATS. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Carolina Panthers have won 13 straight regular season games, and come into this one at 9-0. The numbers by Carolina on the season don't statistically show a 9-0 team to this point. The offense is generating just 5.5 yards per play vs a schedule of teams that average allowing 5.7, and their running game has been more of a product of attempts, with a league leading 303, than yards per carry which is just 4.1 vs teams allowing 4.0, completely average. defensively they are allowing exactly what they gain on the ground 4.1 yards per carry. The area they have shined in is defending the pass, and are tied for the league lead with 14 INT's on the season. The Panthers have benefitted a lot by turnovers, and from week 11 on a team that has a turnover margin of -0.75 or greater is just 42-77-5 ATS if they have a winning percentage of greater than .860. (12-22-1 ATS if unbeaten). Make the play on Washington.

This game fits a totals situation which is 56-21 ATS, make the play on the under.

If you wonder how valuable Tony Romo is to the Dallas Cowboys, they were 2-0 with him and 0-7 without him. The offense needs a lift, and Romo should provide exactly that, and the defense will benefit as well. The Dolphins have been the worst covering home team in the NFL since division realignment at 33-63-4 ATS, and just 5-19 ATS when they have a better winning percentage than their opponent. This play is going to be based on multiple situations favoring the visitor, and one that is 43-5-1 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

I'm not sure if I have ever seen a team arrive at week 12 in the NCAA Football season, having played just 1 road game on the season. That has been the case for Texas A&M, who has played 7 of its 10 games at home, and 2 at a neutral site and just 1 on the road. That road game did not turn out very well, as the Aggies lost 23-3 at Ole Miss, and they will face a very strong defense in Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is somehow 4-6 and with 2 wins could become Bowl eligible, despite averaging just 15.4ppg. that is because the defense allows just 17.4ppg. despite the home heavy schedule the Aggies are just 2-3 in their last 5 games, and have failed to cover any of them, as they continue to be overrated. make the play on Vanderbilt.

The Navy has been pretty good for a number of years, as they have had a winning record, and gone to a Bowl in 12 of the last 13 years, compiling a record of 108-55 SU. They are also 88-67-1 ATS during the last 13 years, including 7-2 ATS this year. They have a soring margin in their 8 wins of 23.6ppg. There is no secret as to what Navy is going to do on offense, as they run the triple option to perfection, and it has been getting better as the season moves on as they have averaged over 400 yards a game on the ground in their last 3. Navy has played 6 turnover free games this season, and history shows us that when they don't turn the ball over they are 76.5% ATS. Tulsa's 3 biggest games this season vs Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston saw them allow a ridiculous 2,000 total yards in the 3 games at 667 yards per game. Those 3 teams ran for 888 yards on 139 carries for 6.4 yards per carry. Needless to say trouble lies ahead here. Central Florida at 0-10 and one of the worst offenses in NCAA football put up over 400 yards and 30 points against the Tulsa defense, despite 4 turnovers. Navy fits an 83-36 ATS situation here. Make the play on Navy.

After 18 straight winning seasons the Southern Miss program fell hard and fast. The previous 3 years saw this team finish 4-32 SU, but have revitalized the program, and come into this game at 7-3. If they take care of business here, they will likely square off with LA Tech next week for the C-USA West Title. two of the 3 losses have come against Nebraska and Miss St, and 6 of their 7 wins on the season have come by 21 points or more. The numbers from the line of scrimmage are considerably above average offensively, and a tick above average defensively. Old Dominion is 5-5 and it is pretty distinct what they have done on the season. Their 5 wins were against teams that have a combined record of 9-32, as well as beating Norfolk St. Despite the poor teams in the 5 wins they manage to win by an average margin of just 7.2ppg. The 5 losses have come to teams that are 36-16, with an average margin of 29.4ppg! You can see they have not been up to the task of taking on good teams. they have in fact gone 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 losses as a FBS team. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Nevada Wolf Pack have the better record entering this game, and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and have now become Bowl eligible at 6-4. They have done so on the strength of their running game which went for 771 yards on 155 carries at 4.97 yards per carry. Utah St. meanwhile has allowed 1047 rushing yards on 222 carries in their last 4 games. Despite the numbers, it is heavy running teams putting them up, and they are allowing less than 5 yards per carry. Nevada runs the ball 61% of the time because they are an awful passing team. Utah St. has a 2 yard per play projected advantage in this game, and about 140 total yards, and Utah St. also has a special teams advantage in this game. Utah St. tends to be extremely good at home where they are 13-0 in their last 13 games here, allowing just 15.6ppg, and winning by 20ppg. Utah St. also is playing for Bowl eligibility, and have extra incentive here. Make the play on Utah St.

It has been a tough go for Rutgers playing in the Big-10, as the Scarlet Knights own a 3-7 record on the season, and have dropped their last 4 games by a combined score of 47-177. They will take on an Army team that is just 2-8 on the season, and the Black Knights have now dropped 3 straight of their own. There are a few things to look at here. Rutgers has been playing a schedule of teams that show many of them ranked, or on the cusp of being ranked, while Army has played a nothing schedule in contrast to that. The big weakness for Rutgers is a disgraceful pass defense, but that won't come into play here, because Army has thrown the ball just 44 times in their last 6 games, just about 7 total passes a contest. Rutgers also has a strong history defending the triple option as they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs Army, and 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Navy. That is 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS defending the option. Army has never stacked up well vs power conference teams of any sort. They are 7-22 ATS vs the ACC,Pac-12,SEC, B-10,B-12, and the old Big East when taking less than 6 points, and 5-14 ATS as a favorite. They are also 3-17 ATS to the above scenario if their winning percentage is less than .700, and 0-11 ATS since 1990. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Iowa Hawkeyes cleared the path to a perfect regular season last week, taking down Minnesota, to move to 10-0. The Hawkeyes have not had to play the top teams in the Big-10, but nevertheless, if they run the table and finish 12-0, and beat a 12-0 Ohio St. team, they are going to be in the final four. Right now they have to take care of business vs Purdue. Purdue somehow put 55 points up against Nebraska in a shocking win a couple of weeks ago, but the rest of the season has been a disaster, and the Purdue offense is really bad. Purdue has been brutal against the run and that is the part of the Iowa offense that has been the best, as they have run for 234 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Iowa doesn't beat themselves as the Hawkeyes over their last 5 games have committed a total of 2 turnovers while their opponent has turned the ball over 17 times in the last 7 games. Purdue was +2 in turnovers last week vs Northwestern and still lost by 7 points, and the likelihood here is they will be negative, against an even better team. Iowa is in a 58-23 ATS spot in this one as well. Make the play on Iowa.

No team has played as tough of a schedule as Iowa St. Yes, they come into this game at just 3-7, but the 7 losses include 6 teams with a combined record of 55-4! The other team is a Bowl eligible, and 6-5 Texas Tech team. They have out-scored the 3 teams they beat 93-20, including Texas, in a shutout win. Kansas St. has one of their worst teams in recent years at just 3-6, and the 6 losses have all come in their last 6 games, where they have allowed 42.7ppg. The defense is missing a lot in the back 4 with injuries, and disciplinary issues, and this is a broken team right now. Kansas St. has not won a conference game all season, and I think the will of this team has been broken. Make the play on Iowa St.

There will not likely be any post season for either of these teams, despite playing in the weakest conference in the NFL this year. This is a very difficult spot for Tennessee, being a 2-7 team, that has to travel for a Thursday game, especially after playing an unbeaten team at home, where they spent a lot of energy, only to be denied 27-10. History shows that teams that play at home on a Thursday have a huge advantage over horrible teams, those with a winning percentage below .300 from November on (to ensure they are really a bad team), as they own a 16-2 ATS mark as a home favorite. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Division games tend to play a lot more intensely than other games, and lower scoring games are more probable, as both teams certainly see each other more frequently there are few surprises, and on a short week, less opportunity to create any new things. Thursday Night division games when their is a home favorite and a low to modest total of 36.5 to 44 have gone 27-10 to the under. 916-5 if a competitive game with a line of less than -6), and 3-0 if both teams are less than .400. Make the play on the under.

If the Central Florida Knights are going to win a game this season, this will be it. they have had plenty of rest, and they know time is running out, and they face an East Carolina team that has really gone down hill. The Pirates have dropped 3 straight games, all as a favorite, and certainly don't have much of a history playing as a road chalk of more than -6, as they are 1-14 ATS in that role the last 14 years, and despite those games showing on average they have been -11.5 favorites, they have averaged winning the games by 1 point!, and have dropped 6 of them. ECU has averaged less than 15ppg in their last 3, and even the Knights have done better than that! Knights look to be in good shape to get the money in this one. Make the play on Central Florida.

If your a fan of the MAC Conference, it doesn't get much better than this. Western Michigan heads to DeKalb, where the MAC Championship often goes through, to face N. Illinois. While their are many scenarios separating the 3 teams that stand at 5- in the MAC West (Toledo, W. Michigan, and N. Illinois), one thing is certain, either team that wins this game, and wins their finale, is the MAC West Champion, and will square off with Bowling Green for the MAC Championship. This is an interesting match up between a pair of dead even teams. It depicts one of the best home teams in the FBS as N. Illinois is 35-2 SU in their last 37 home games, and just 5 of those games has them winning by 3 points or less, but there is a caveat. The 37 games show that 22 of them were against losing teams, and of the 15 other games vs .500 or better teams, more than half ended with a 7 point or less win, or a loss by NIU. meanwhile, the best cover team in the FBS, Western Michigan is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games, 6-4 SU, and those 10 games include N, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Ohio St., and Bowling Green. One staple of the games are the Broncos offensive trio of QB Zach Terrell who is just a junior, but has already thrown for over 7.700 yards and 57 TD's in his career. He has a pair of dynamic receivers in Dan Braveman and Corey Davis that have combined for 158 catches for 2,046 yards and 19 TD's. between them they have caught 75% of all Bronco completions on the season. N. Illinois took a blow when QB Drew Hare went down with a season ending injury, but back up Ryan Graham has been every bit his equal since taking over. I think the difference in this one is the experience of Western Michigan, with a core of skill players that have not been shaken on the road, or the big moment. The Broncos are 6-4 SU in their last 10 despite being an average of +11.2 points per game under dogs. Davis has little experience at QB, and although he has performed very well, this is a big stage, and I like the experience of Terrell and his experienced receivers to rise in the moment. Make the play on W. Michigan.

The public consensus is that the Seattle Seahawks have the biggest and best home field advantage in the NFL. The 12th man, if you will, is widely documented, so there is no surprises that Seattle is getting tainted by the odds makers at home. What most don't realize is Cincinnati has been even better than that at home. Seattle is 20-4 SU and 15-9 ATS in their last 24 home games, while Cincinnati is 20-3-1 SU and 18-5-1 ATS, but few have noticed, unless of course you live in Cincinnati. When Cincinnati has played outside the division at home over the same period, they are 14-1-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS, and if it is a conference game, that goes to 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS, winning by an average margin of +16.6ppg. Monday Night Football teams that are unbeaten, from at least week 3 on and the line is less than -14 are 20-5-1 ATS, so for the most part, these teams bring it. There is another factor here as well. The Monday Night Football host and rabbid fans, has long worn down, however, when you consider all the bad teams the Bengals have had, do you realize they have hosted just 7 Monday Night Football games since 1989? The bloom is certainly not off the rose in this case, and in fact, the Bengals are 3-0 ATS over that 27 year period as a home favorite. They are amongst a group of 21 teams prior to this season that started 8-0, and every one of them made the playoffs, and 8 won the Super Bowl. Houston is 3-5 on the season, beating 3 teams that have a combined 9-18 record. Houston has been a below average offense, and an average defense based on their schedule of opponents thus far, and the Bengals have been an elite passing team, and defensively an above average pass defense, but have been vulnerable to the run. If the Bengals get a lead, and force Houston to the air, it could get ugly fast. Andy Dalton has thrived in his career as a big chalk, as the Bengals are 9-0 SU and average 34.1ppg. The Texans are 5-12-2 ATS in their history against unbeaten teams, including 3-9 ATS if they are not a better than .500 team, losing by 14.3ppg. Make the play on Cincinnati.

The Arizona Cardinals are not getting a lot of respect, and either is Carson Palmer. Palmer is having hos best season, but many forget, he was 6-0 last season before getting injured. Palmer is throwing for 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and the Arizona defense is above average. Seattle is not the same Seattle team we have seen the last 2 years. The offensive line is horrible, and Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, and he has just 9 TD passes on the season to 6 INT's, and their 20.9ppg is below the league average. The Seattle defense, once imposing, is still good, but has not been intimidating as they have been in the past, and have forced just 6 turnovers all season. The Cards have a decent margin of error in the fact in 4 games where they committed 2 or more turnovers (11 total), they have still managed to outscore their opponent by 25 total points. Sunday Night Football home teams off 2 wins and against an opponent off a win are 7-21 ATS the last 10 years. and just 3-17 ATS as a favorite, and 0-8 ATS if it is a division game. Make the play on Arizona.

The Denver broncos are 7-1, and lost their last game, and they were the worst offensive team in NFL history to start the season 7-0, as they rate out -0.6 yards from the line of scrimmage offensively, as Peyton Manning is a shell of his former self. The record says 7-1 for the broncos, but you could easily change a play or two a game and show them at 4-4, so the record is driving the line here. Andy Reid has been one of the league's best off a bye in his coaching career, and the Chiefs at one time were 1-5, and I looked like over and out, but they have won 2 straight games. Kansas City will be playing another tough game, already playing 4 teams with a combined record of 27-3, and this will make 5 teams with a combined record of 34-4. Despite the toughest schedule in the league so far, the Chiefs are breakeven at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs 4 games vs teams that are 27-3 show they actually won the line of scrimmage in 3 of them, out-gaining 3 of the 4. Home favorites that were 3-0 or better before losing their first game are 16-29-2 ATS as a home favorite of -11 or less in their next game. Chiefs make a strong showing here, as Andy Reid is 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS following a bye. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Carolina Panthers are now off to an 8-0 start on the season, and have also now won 12 straight regular season games, including 5 straight on the road. The defense is solid, but looks to be a bit less than what it really is. That is because they have taken big leads into the 4th quarter, as they have allowed 9 TD's in their 8 games prior to the 4th quarter. The offense is very balanced, and the Panthers are just one of 3 teams that have scored 20 or more points in all 8 games on the season. (Giants and Patriots the other 2). Carolina has run for 100 yards or more in 21 straight games. Marcus Mariota has done relatively well, but his only game vs an elite pass defense left him with a 68.4 passer rating. Carolina fits a situation that is 128-69 ATS, which is 9-2 ATS if the team is unbeaten. Make the play on Carolina.

Let me start by saying I am aware of the history here, and also say that so is the general public, and more importantly so are the odds makers. The Lions are 0-24 SU here in their last 24 visits to Cheeseland. They have covered just 4 times. That being said, let's take a look at these teams inside the numbers, not the 1-7 Lions vs the 6-2 Packers, and not the streaks, that is where the value is coming from. let's ask a reasonable question. How many points should a road team be getting if they are being out-gained through 8 games by 48 yards a game, against a home team that is being out-gained by 41 yards per game? Do you think it should be 11 points? Green Bay has many issues. No Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb is not the same receiver going against the best corner on any given team, as a secondary option last year he was great. Eddie Lacey is struggling, and can't gain anything, and Starks has been getting more time, but in either case, through 8 games, the running game is nowhere near what it was a year ago. Aaron Rodgers is getting knocked down, and sacked , and forced out of the pocket a lot as well. The offense through the last 5 games is averaging 21.4ppg, the lowest 5 game stretch in Aaron Rodgers career, by far. The last 3 games, the Packers have been burned for 1,471 passing yards, at 9.1 yards per attempt. Detroit is no bargain either, but they are not separated by 11 points in this game, as the Packers are extremely over-rated, and jut 7 yards a game separates these teams on the season from the line of scrimmage. Detroit is in situations that are 45-12,25-3,22-5,99-55, and 109-69 all ATS. Green Bay is in 1-48, 34-76, and 29-61 ATS situations, so I am aware of the history here, but the stats, and so many more indicators blow away the Packer trends for this game. Detroit is 13-4 ATS following a 20+ point loss, and all teams losing their last game by 35 or more points that also have a winning percentage of under .250, and are getting more than 9 points are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 instances. Detroit gets the call.

This looks to be a survival match up, as both Cleveland and Pittsburgh are banged up. The Browns have dropped 4 straight games, and certainly don't appear to be much of a threat here, but remember, this is the NFL, where strange, contrarian things occur on a weekly basis. QB Landry Jones, and RB D'Angelo Williams have stepped up admirably for the Pittsburgh offense, which hasn't skipped a beat. QB Josh Mc Cown will likely get the start for Cleveland, and he has had an outstanding season thus far with a passer rating of 95.2. Pittsburgh hasn't exactly been dominating, as they have suffered 3 straight spread losses. teams that break a 2 game losing streak, but continue their failure to cover (3 straight ATS losses), are just 12-23 ATS since 2004. (5-13 ATS vs a team on a losing streak). So all the things that make Cleveland look like a bad choice, are actually reasons to play Cleveland here. Like most NFL teams, the Browns have been very good as a road dog off a road dog loss, as they are 8-1 ATS, the only loss by 2 points as a +1 dog. Make the play on Cleveland.

This game fits a totals situation which is 55-21 ATS, and the play is on the under.