I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Buffalo

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Seattle.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on Houston.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Texas.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UTEP

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Arkansas.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on California.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UCLA.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Coastal Carolina.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on South Carolina.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UL Lafayette.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech is a lot closer to Georgia than the line. Georgia has this huge perception of being just as good this season as their recent elite teams. They also do not play their hardest in games as a heavy favorite. They are 16-26 ATS when favored by 16.5 or more points, but show up in the more competitive games as they are 20-12 ATS in their last 32 as a favorite of 16 or fewer points. I like Georgia Tech.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. The Cowboys are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The elite Colorado passing attack is averaging 8.4 yards per passing attempt. The best of this Oklahoma St. team is their passing offense which averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and both these teams love to throw the ball. They combine for an average of 76 passes per game, and with the way this match up stacks up as strength vs. weakness on both sides, I would expect to see 85+ passing attempts in this game, with a lot of success. Make the play over the total.

This game has a big match-up advantage for the East Carolina Pirates. It's no secret that the Navy is going to run the ball 75% of the time, but that plays into the best part of the East Carolina team that allows just 3.8 yards per rush. East Carolina also has the edge in their passing game averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, which plays into the Navy's defensive weakness. Make the play on East Carolina.

There is a huge the advantage for a team that is playing as a home favorite on a Thursday. The short week, and road team by the line is worse than the home team, has shown to yield a huge edge for the home team. Thursday NFL home favorites are 132-71 ATS. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Memphis Tigers and the Tulane Green Wave are both 9-2 on the season, and the Green Wave has won 8 straight games. The Green Wave has an elite passing attack that averages 9.5 yards per attempt but throws the ball just 22 times per game. I think they will be putting the ball in the air a lot more as Memphis is good vs. the run, but not against the pass. Tulane has held their last 3 opponents to 9 total points. Memphis is highly overrated. They are 9-2, but have actually been outscored by their opponents on the road. Outside of the Kansas St. game Tulane has outscored their opponents at home by 173-26. Memphis lost against UTSA and Navy and allowed 100 points in the 2 games. Make the play on Tulane.

There is a huge advantage for a team that is playing as a home favorite on a Thursday. The short week, and road team by the line is worse than the home team, has shown to yield a huge edge for the home team. Thursday NFL home favorites are 132-71 ATS. Make the play on Dallas.

The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFC, and with the strength of the NFC this year, vs. the AFC, you can argue that the Lions are the best team in football right now. There has long been an advantage of an elite team playing as a home favorite on a Thursday as they cover a very high percentage of games. The reason is they have an advantage: being the better team on a short week and playing at home. A team playing on Thursday as a home favorite of -10 or more points is 23-0 SU, and 17-5-1 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Rams are playing as well as anyone of late as they have won 4 of their last 5. They fit a Sunday Night Football situation that is 31-8 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The Niners have to go without Brock Purdy today, but I expect their defense to control the Packer offense. This game fits a 2nd team QB situation in his first as a replacement, that is 67-8 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Raiders fit a situation that is 117-78 ATS. Make the play on Vegas.

This game fits a total situation that is 107-61 ATS. Make the play under the total.

This will be the Vikings 3rd straight road game, and it qualifies in a situation playing against such teams which is 98-55 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

Air Force went 0-7 in their first 7 games vs. FBS competition. Air Force scored 13 or fewer points in 5 of those 7 games. They have something going as the Falcons have 2 straight wins where they averaged 32ppg. Both games were upset wins. Nevada has been just the opposite as they started at 3-4, but have lost 4 straight games. The Wolfpack did not score more than 21 points in the 4 games. This is a trap game after giving Boise St. fits, and their rival UNLV the following week. This game fits a dog off 2 dog wins situation that is 87-47 ATS. Make the play on Nevada.

Notre Dame has the worst loss of any team in the top 12. The Irish lost at home to Northern Illinois 16-14. They have since run the table and ranked #6 in the projected playoffs. Army is 9-0 and rank #18. They probably don't have a chance to get into the top 12, but if they win it will get interesting. There is a huge matter at hand here. Army has played to a schedule that ranks #134 in the country, which is the easiest of any team. The highest ranked team they have faced this season is UAB, who sits at #80. They have not faced a better team all year, so this game is going to be different. Army employs the triple-option which is hard to prepare for, but Notre Dame faced Navy less than a month ago, and won 51-14. I like Notre Dame.

 I think most knew with a coach that left for the NFL and graduation of many integral players from last year`s National Championship that duplicating that feat was going to be a tall order. Nothing is better than having their weakest opponent since Arkansas St. in week 3 on the schedule. Michigan realizes a win at least gets them to a Bowl, and with Ohio St. left, they better seize the opportunity. Northwestern has not had a 100 yard rusher all season, nor have the thrown for more than 250 yards. Northwestern in their 6 losses has scored 10.4ppg. I like Michigan.

This is a system sizzler play. In the second half of the season (game number 7 out), a team that has played their last 3 games that have gone under a collectively 35 or more points are 83-35 ATS including 11-4 ATS this year. Make the play on Rice.

Needless to say this is the biggest game on the card this week. The Ohio St. Buckeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers, who have suddenly become a football school. Ohio St. sits at #2 in the playoff rankings at 9-1, while Indiana is at #5 at 10-0. My ratings on this play surprised me hen I ran the numbers, as it shows the final score of Ohio St. 26.72-24.30.Add in 3 points for home field and the line should be Ohio St. -5.5. These teams are a lot closer than the look. I like the value on the Hoosiers. Make the play on Indiana. 

The LA Chargers have not played any game this season where both teams combined to score more than 44 points. The Chargers elite defense has allowed just 13.1ppg. The Chargers 9 games have averaged a combined 33.8 total points on the season. This total is 14 points greater than that. The Bengals have a good offense, but they have faced mostly bad or below average defensive teams. The Bengals have faced 6 opponents that average ranking #25 in yards per pay allowed. They have faced 4 teams that rank in the top half of the league in defensive yards per play and they have averaged fewer than 25ppg. I like the under in this one.

The San Francisco 49ers defense is no longer elite as it has been over the past few seasons. The Niners held 10 of their first 13 opponents to fewer than 20 points last season, but since then they have faced 11 teams and 10 of them have gotten to 20 or more. These teams put up 60 total points in their game in Seattle earlier in the season. Seattle has put up 20 or more points in 8 of their 9 games this season. Seattle has allowed just shy of 30ppg in their last 6 this season. I like over the total in this one.

The Pittsburgh Steelers can play defense, but the offense was another story. QB Russell Wilson has been a game changer as he has dusted himself off, for a good run. He has 8 completions with the ball going 20+ air yards, and the Ravens pass defense is open for business, as they allow nearly 300 yards per game.The Ravens have played 7 one possession games, and their margin this season is not what it was a year ago. This is the worst Baltimore defense I have remembered in a long time. Make the play on Pittshurgh. 

Caleb Williams has struggled as he has no time to throw, and no receivers getting open. Williams has been sacked 38 times already this season, and it starts to take its toll. Green Bay is coming off their bye week where they are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a favorite to a sub-.500 team. The Packers have dominated the Bears as they are 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bears have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL, and despite of that this team is averaging -1.1 yards per play. The Packers are 26-5 SU and 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games in Chicago. Make the play on Green Bay.

It will be hard for any bettor to get down, and have the nerve to play on Tennessee this week. The Titans have probably burned most bettors this season as they have failed to cover a game in any of their last 5, but that is when they have gotten so far negative, the lines are now tilted in their favor. A team that has failed to cover at least 5 straight games have gone 60-34-2 ATS. Make the play on Tennessee.

This game fits a 26-1 ATS situation on the visitor based in part of the Raiders lo possession time the last  weeks. Make the play on Vegas.

The Kansas Jayhawks will travel to play undefeated BYU. This will be the 2nd straight opponent that Kansas will play in consecutive games. This game does not look right. How can the #6 team in the nation that is unbeaten be just a -2.5 point favorite at home? Kansas has an improved offense, but most of that has been seen at home. The Jayhawks are averaging 36.4ppg at home to just 25.8ppg on the road. BYU is an elite team that has surprised a lot of people, and the numbers have not caught up to them despite of their unbeaten status. This line suggests Kansas would be a 1 point favorite on a neutral field, A team that is coming off a win vs a 6-0 or better team and now facing another 6-0 team or better are 29-40-3 ATS, including 11-17-2 as a road dog. Overall, these teams have been 10-22-1 ATS in this situation when the line is from +7 to -7, and 0-5 ATS lately. Make the ply on BYU.

South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the country at #6 in fewest yards per play by their opponents. Only the elite offenses of LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss had any success. Those 3 teams averaged 30ppg, well below their averages. Mediocre or average offenses have struggled against this defense. Their other 6 opponents have averaged 11.3ppg against them. The Missouri offense ranks #94 and will struggle to get to 10 points. Missouri has a good defense and the SC offense is very average. I like the under.

Notre Dame is 8-1 on the season. The biggest surprise was their loss to Northern Illinois early in the season. The Irish are ranked #8 in the latest playoff release. The Irish will try to sneak into the top 4 as they will be a favorite in their last 3 games, which if they win, they will have an 11-1 season. Notre Dame plays out of the ACC for football only, and they have dominated the conference. Notre Dame is 16-2 ATS in their last 18 conference games. They are also 16-0 ATS in their 16 outright wins. hen the line has been from -7 to +7 they are 9-0 ATS. They have covered those games by 20.3ppg! Notre Dame ranks #6 in defensive yards per play allowed, and their offense ranks #19. Virginia is ranked #86 on offense is going to struggle to move the ball, and the Virginia defense is #84. Looks like a blowout. Make the play on Notre Dame.

he Tulane football program has risen from the ashes. The Green Wave is 8- on the season, and is coming off two consecutive seasons of 11 and 12 wins. They are 8-2 on the season and a third straight 10+ in season is well in reach. This is a team that won 10 or more games just 1 other time over their past 33 seasons. Tulane has an explosive offense that has averaged 44.6ppg in their last 7 contests. Navy is 7-2 on the season, but the losses have all come in their last 3 games. Navy has struggled to defend against elite offensive teams, as they allowed 51 to Notre Dame and 44 to Memphis. The Tulane defense is strong, especially vs. the pass where they rank #21 in the nation in opponents yards per pass attempt. Their run defense has been mediocre and ranks #76 in the country in stopping the run. That means the best part of their defense won't come into play here, as Navy is going to run the ball on most dons, and should be able to score a decent amount of points. I like the over.

I would never underestimate Kyle Whittingham as a coach. Utah has struggled without Cam Rising at QB, but I'm sure coch Whittingham will have some gadget plays or special teams play, as he always finds a way to keep his team competitive. His team is 17-2-1 ATS when posted as a 7 point or more dog. Colorado was lucky last week. They were out-gained, Texas Tech was -3 in turnovers, had a missed field goal, was stopped at the Colorado 1, and gave up a TD in the last minute on a fumble. They handed Colorado the game. Colorado has Sheduer Sanders and he is an elite QB, but he has been sacked 28 times on the season, and this will be the best defense he has seen all year. Colorado despite Sanders has run 60 times for just 705 yards at 2.7 yards per game. The best part of the Utah defense is pass defense. Utah has allowed no team to score more than 27 points all season, and 8 of the 9 opponents have scored 23 or less.Utah has lost 5 games by a total of 31 points, and they will be in this one. Make the play on Utah.

Miami has not gotten Tyreke Hill up to the level of last season, even with Tua back at QB. The Rams do a great job with WR's but they really struggle guarding tight ends, and screen passes. That may be good for Tua, as those plays generally get the ball out quickly, and that is where success is to be found against the Rams. This game also fits a total situation that has been 107-65 ATS, based on Monday Night games, and a couple other things. Make the play over the total.

The Houston Texans have been tough to take down at home as they are a perfect 4-0. There is more to it than that. The Texans beat the Bears with a rookie QB, a 2-7 Jacksonville team, an injured Buffalo team, and Indianapolis, a team that has been unsettled with their QB's. Despite all that, the Texans couldn't win any of the 4 games by more than 6 points. C.J. Stroud has had little time to get the ball out. The Jets sacked him 8 times, and 3 or more times in five games. The Texans offensive line is injured, and it will be hard for Stroud to remain upright, and unpressured. The Lions fall into a 1 loss team after 8 games of the season, and 2 other factors that has gone 31-6 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Buffalo Bills are 7- on the season. They had a bad 2 game stretch here they lost both, but are otherwise 7-0. More importantly this team scores. The Bills and Ravens share the top spot for 30+ point games on the season with 6 each. The Colts have reached 30 just 1 time this season. That's a lot of distance to make up. The Bills also fit a situation that plays on a road favorite that has scored at least 4 points in each of its last 2 games, vs. an opponent off to straight road losses. This is 32-11 ATS. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Saints have been awful on defense. They’ve struggled mightily against the run, giving up 225 rushing yards to Denver and another 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay. They even lost to a Carolina Panthers team led by quarterback Bryce Young, which shows how bad the defense has been. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins have averaged 30.3ppg on the road this season. Add in a total situation that has been 96-63 to the over, and I like this one to go over the total.

This is a blind system play that has been 66-19 ATS! The play is on San Francisco.

The Utah Utes have been trending don from the 10+ win seasons they had right before the covid season. They won just 8 last year and are just 4-4 now. One ongoing problem as trying to get QB Cam Rising on the field, but his numerous injuries didn't allow for it. Issac Wilson has taken over at QB without very good results. He is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass, and has thrown only 8 TDs to 8 INTs. Utah has averaged just 12.5ppg. which isn't going to in too many games. BYU is 8-0 on the season and currently rank #9 in the playoff poll. Not only do they have a good offense, they have a very good defense, and cover point spreads at 7-1 ATS on the season. I ill lay the points here and play on BYU.

The first playoff poll came out and had Boise St. ranked in the #12 slot. That is the final slot, and Boise St. has reason to bring everything they have into this game, which means the #6 ranked offense in yards per play at 7.0 will be facing the #90 ranked defense. Boise St. should be scoring on almost every drive. The match up on the other side of the ball when Nevada has the ball is pretty even. Boise St. is the only team in the FBS that has scored 56 or more points in 4 games. Number 5 is coming in this one. Make the play on Boise St. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played to a line of -21 or more points. Make the play on Boise St.

This game fits a situation that has been a powerhouse. It plays on certain unbeaten teams after week 6 of the season. It is 50-18-1 ATS and the play is on Oregon.

Louisiana Lafayette is 7-1 on the season with the only loss by 8 points to a very good Tulane team. Arkansas St. is 5-3, but looking at the numbers in this game the advantage is a big one when the Ragin Cajans have the ball. Louisiana has an offense that ranks #14 in the FBS in yards per play at 6.6, while the Arkansas defense is allowing 6.5 and ranked #120. The numbers say that Louisiana is going to have a significant edge hen they have the ball. I will make the play on Louisiana.

Navy started the season 6-0, then went to Notre Dame and got beaten badly. They followed with a low energy letdown game vs. Rice that turned into a 14 point loss. South Florida is 4-4 on the season, but their 4 wins have all come to really bad teams. Navy despite the consecutive losses remains as the best ATS road record of any team in NCAAF over a very long period of time. Navy is 108-60-1 ATS on the road in their last 169 games. That becomes 29-13-1 ATS off of 2 losses. I will back Navy in this one.

I think there is a lot of value on this UCLA team in this game. The Iowa defense which has been their calling card for years is still good, but not elite as it has been in recent years. Iowa is allowing 5.1 yards per play against them which ranks #41. The UCLA defense ranks #56 at 5.3 yards per play. There is one huge difference. UCLA has faced the toughest schedule in the nation. UCLA over a game game stretch faced Indiana, LSU,Oregon, Penn St., and Minnesota. These 5 teams are a collective 37-6. They lost 5 straight, and appeared to be looked at as a poor team. They are 2-0 since those 5 games, and on last eek on the road as a 7 point dog. They are getting 6 here, and I think these teams are fairly even, and the Bruins are home. Make the play on UCLA.

The Memphis Tigers come into this game with a record of 7-2 on the season. They will take on the Rice Owls who was just an upset winner vs, Navy. Memphis has proven through the season that they can hold down a bad offense. Memphis allowed 17 to Troy, 122 to Florida St., 7 to Middle Tennessee, 3 to S. Fla., and 0 to FCS Northern Arizona. Rice has little offense as they average just 4.9 yards per play, which ranks #110 in the country. Rice does have a better than average defense that ranks #31 allowing just 4.9 yards per play.The 4 FBS teams mentioned above average ranking #104 on offense and Rice is #110, so I don`t expect much from the rice offense, but I also think that Rice has a good enough defense to keep Memphis from going off. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a Monday Night Football situation that plays on certain unbeaten teams. This situation is 16-3-2 ATS, and 12-1 ATS if it is after game 4 of the season, hen being unbeaten has more value.

This game is strictly a situational play. The Rams have a situation in which they have played 17-1-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

he Tennessee Titans look like they will have Will Levis back at QB this week. He has been taking reps for the starters all week. While that sounds like good news for the Titans it is not. Mason Rudolph actually has the better numbers. The Titans have put up 17 or fewer points in all but one game this season. Jacoby Brissett will be at QB if Maye can't get cleared from concussion protocal. That is also a downgrade. Neww England has managed just 15.5ppg on the season, and with negatives at both QB positions, and already poor offenses, I like the under. I will side with the under in this one.

he Denver Broncos have turned the corner under Sean Payton. Payton has gotten his teams to excel in the role of a dog here they are 54-33-22 ATS. That improves to 32-15-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. I will make the play on Denver.

The Raiders fit an extremely strong situation that is based in part by a team that has a bye the following week. This situation is 28-3-2 ATS. Make the play on Vegas.

The Dallas Cowboys are just 3-4 on the season as they head on the road to Atlanta. This is a big game for Dallas as falling to 3-5 on the season with the Eagles, Texans, and Commodores on deck might keep them out of the playoffs. The defense has been awful, as Dallas is allowing 6 yards per play, with only the Saints worse at 6.1. Atlanta ranks 7th in yards per play on offense at 6 yards per play and should move the ball ell here. Dallas has struggled vs the better teams while beating up on the bad ones. Dallas is now 21-41-2 ATS against better than .500 teams, and 27-11 ATS

Breaking down Baylor and TCU is interesting. Both these teams matchup statistically dead even, That would make the line look right at -3 with Baylor getting 3 points for home field.Baylor has been a much better offensive team with Sayer Robertson at QB. Fewer turnovers, better yards per pass attempt, and more of a duel threat as he averages 5.9 yards per carry for Baylor. Baylor really has the offense going with 97 total points their last 2 games. TCU is 5-3 on the season, and somewhat over-rated. They have played ell below the line at 2-6 ATS.Baylor fits a situation that is 97-56 ATS and is active for this game. Make the play on Baylor.

The South Carolina Gamecocks will host the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday night. This should be a favorable handicapping spot for the Gamecocks as they come in off their bye, and have had plenty of time to prepare and heel. South Carolina may be just 4-3, but have recorded a loss to Alabama by 2 and LSU by 3. They have also beaten Kentucky by 25, and covered 5 of their last 6 games. Texas A&M has on 7 straight after an opening game loss to Notre Dame. The Aggies are however just 3-5 ATS, and playing below the line. South Carolina is in a team off a bye situation that is 78-42-4 ATS. Make the play on South Carolina..

The Indiana Hoosiers have come up aces all season. They bring a perfect 8-0 SU ans 8-0 ATS record into their game at Minnesota. Indiana will get their QB back behind center. The Hoosiers are the shock of NCAA Football this season, and their coach, Curt Cignetti has done nothing but win and cover point-spreads. Cignetti is 22-9 ATS as an NCAAF FBS coach. hen he brings his team into the game unbeaten, his team is 18-4 ATS, and that includes 7-0 ATS in his last 7. The Hoosiers have won their 8 games by 2259 total points. Michigan St. has scored 19 or fewer points in 6 of their 8 games, and come in at just 4-4. The defense is good, but they gave up 31 to Ohio St., and 38 to Oregon. I don't see Michigan St. being able to move the ball enough to stay ithin a score. Make the play on Indiana.

Since the start of the 2018 season Georgia has been two different teams. When they are better than 3 TD favorites (-21.5 or more), they tend to not be interested in the game which says easy win. Those games show Georgia at 15-30-1 ATS. When they have been favored by 3 TDs or less (-21 or less), they are 41-21 ATS. Make the play on Georgia.

I'm not sure if I ever remember a team that as projected to be a top 5 team on the season, and through 8 games is 1-7. This team has no surpassed any chance for Bowl eligibility, and there is nothing left to play for. The Seminoles have one of the worst offenses in the nation, and since game 1 they have not reached 17 points in any game. The defense is good, but at this stage of the season, they are tired, and really have no goals remaining. Florida St. had their biggest game last week against Miami, and the defense played well, but that likely means this game is going to bring with it a big letdown. North Carolina moves to 5-4 on the season with a win, and 1 shy of Bowl eligibility. Make the play on North Carolina.

This game is huge for both teams. Ohio St. can't afford to pick up another loss, while this game affords the opportunity for Penn St. to finally get over the top and move ahead of Michigan, and Ohio St. as the best team in the Big-10. Penn St. has been knocking on the door as they are 6- ATS in their last 8 games vs. Ohio St. A bigger picture shows that a 5-0 or better team playing as a home dog has gone 20-2-1 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. The night belongs to the Nitany Lions. Make the play on Penn St.

UConn has gotten off to a 5-3 start and have a chance to become Bowl eligible tonight vs. Georgia St. at home. The Huskies have some issues on offense. They can't get the ball in the hands of their best offensive player R Skylar Bell. Since starting QB Joe Fagnano went down with a season ending injury the offense has done little, and Bell not part of it. Bell has just 7 catches the last 3 games for 81 yards. UConn has scored fewer points than their previous game for 4 straight games now. Defensively they are very good. They allowed 33ppg to the 3 power4 conference teams on their schedule and 11.6ppg in all other contests. They are limited in FG's taken as they are 2-6 from 40+ yards out or more. QB Zach Gibson has been better at QB, but the Panthers even with the improvement in the passing game has scored 0ppg in their last 3, and UConn is better defensively than all those teams. I like the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have some issues on their offensive line for this game vs the NY Giants. Steelers C Zach Frazier is out with an ankle sprain, and starting RG James Daniels is also sidelined. This opens the door for Dexter Lawrence and his 9 sacks on the season to disrupt Russell Wilson from getting clean looks downfield. Pittsburgh RT Broderick Jones, who has surrendered a league-high 6 sacks, is also a problem. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have not been good playing outside the division after a win against a poor team that is .400 or worse and posted as a 3 or more point favorite. His team is 8-29 ATS. The Giants have been the best road dog in the NFL as they are 117-87-1 ATS, with a subset of 99-67 ATS. Make the play on the NY Giants.

This was supposed to be a rookie of the year battle at QB with Celeb Williams and Jayden Daniels showcasing a head-to-head battle for rookie of the year. The NFL even flexed the game to the national audience late afternoon time slot. Unfortunately, Daniels rib injury kept him out of practice all week and he is very doubtful to suit up for this game. That leaves Marcus Mariota to take the reigns once again. The Commanders offense did not skip a beat last week as Mariota stepped in and averaged 8.4 yards per pass play. That was against the Carolina Panthers, and it will be much more difficult against the Bears defense. There is also a situation active for this game that plays on certain teams off a bye that has delivered an 82-42-4 ATS mark. (66.1% winners). Make the play on Chicago.

The New Orleans Saints look like they will once again be without Derek Carr. That means more of Spencer Rattler. Look for a lot of attempts by Rattler for short safe passes to running backs, but the Chargers have the #1 success rate against opposing running backs. The Saints after opening the season scoring 91 points in their first  games have no scored just 86 in their last 5. The Chargers don't score, but their defense seems to keep them in every game as they have yet to allow any of their 6 opponents to score more than 0, and their season average is 13.8ppg against them. None of the Chargers 6 games have seen both teams combine to get to 40 total points, and I don't think this is the week to see that number topped. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a long term total situation that is 685-522-21 to the under. That is a 1200+ game situation that connects on just about 57% of all bets. Make the play under the total.

It has become very clear the Tennessee Titans have thrown in the towel on the 2024-25 season at 1-5 on the season. They have eyes on the first overall pick in next year's draft, and tipped their hand this eek by trading DeAndre Hopkins and will insert Nick Westbrook who is a serious downgrade at wide receiver. Tennessee will likely be without starting cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, and Jared Goff should continue his success. The NFC North is by far the best division in the NFL as the 4 teams have combined to go 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS when not facing another team in the division. Make the play on Detroit.

This is a big game in Tampa Bay as the Atlanta Falcons will travel to take on the Bucs. Both these teams sit on top of the NFL South at 4-3. The Tampa Bay season took a big blow when they lost their top 2 receivers Evans, and Godwin. This will seriously downgrade the Tampa Bay offense, and Baker Mayfield's option is setting up a lot of screen passes, but that is the Falcon's strength on defense. Mayfield will have his work cut out for him. There is a lot at stake as the winner improves their playoff chances by about 40% vs. the loser. This could lead to a conservative defensive struggle, with Tampa Bay slowing the game down. I like the under.

Kansas St. and Kansas have been playing a long time. Beyond the rivalry however is the knowledge and understanding that Kansas St. has the biggest home field advantage in college football. The Wildcats are an amazing 137-81- ATS mark at home (63% winners on the blind). If you are worried of this being a rivalry game, don't be. Kansas St. Kansas St. is 12-5 ATS at home vs. Kansas the last 17 played here.Make the play on Kansas St.

This is an instate rivalry game between visiting Michigan St. and Michigan. The Wolverines are just 4-3 SU on the season and have not been able to cover games as they are just 1-6 ATS on the season. Michigan made a QB change last week by inserting Jack Tuttle to run the offense. The result was a lot more of the same as the Michigan offense struggled to 4.4 yards per play. Michigan St. has similar defensive numbers to Illinois who held Michigan to 7 points last week. When you add everything up, Michigan St. is somewhat better at the line of scrimmage than Michigan. Michigan St. fits a situation that is 535-407-29 ATS at 57% with nearly 1,000 games in the sample size. Make the play on Michigan St.

This should be one of the better games on the schedule as Penn St. brings their unbeaten 6-0 record to Wisconsin tonight. Penn St. has legit National Championship aspirations as the Nitany Lions rank #8 in both offense and defense in yards per play. It is hard to believe that this will be just the 2nd time in 11 years that Penn St. has played at Wisconsin. Many will believe that Penn St. off their bye week after a narrow escape vs. USC 33-30 will have a bigger edge but they are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games off a bye, and just 5-8 ATS. They also have a huge showdown vs. Ohio St. next week, and may have one eye on that game. Penn St. has been poor as they are 0-5 ATS when they take the field as a 5-0 team or better. Wisconsin has been extremely tough as a conference home dog of more than 2 points, when they have a winning percentage of .700 or better entering the game. They are 13-0 ATS in this situation since 1991! Make the play on Wisconsin.

This game will be bypassed by most bettors with each team coming into the game at 1-6. Utah St. had a pair of games vs Utah and USC where they scored just 21 total points. They are averaging 35ppg outside of those two step up games. Overall these teams are bad all-around, but the biggest edge on the field is Utah St. ranks #49 in offensive yards per play, while the Wyoming defense ranks #122. Wyoming generally holds a bigger home field advantage because of the altitude, but Utah St. plays at altitude as well. I like Utah St.

James Madison played their worst game of the season last week in a 28-14 loss to Georgia Southern. They are likely going to be taking out some of those frustrations this week against a very bad Southern Miss team that is The Golden Eagles were once a mid-major power in NCAAF as they finished with a winning record for 18 straight years. The program has since collapsed as they are 58-96 SU since 2012 and 1-6 SU this year. Southern Miss has the #122 ranked defense in the country and the #95 ranked offense, going against the #25 ranked JMU defense, and #35 ranked offense. This game fits a pair of situations in favor of JMU. They fit a 298-216 ATS situation, as well as a 695-583 ATS situation. Make the play on James Madison.

I guess everyone is going to find out about Navy this week when they meet at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Navy comes into this game as the unbeaten team at 6-0. The Navy defense is not as good as it has looked as they have limited opposing offenses to 5.5 yards per play. The issue is the schedule of offenses Navy has faced on average ranks #115. Notre Dame should be able to move the ball at will vs. Navy. Notre Dame is limiting opponents to 4.2 yards per play which ranks #5 in the nation. I like Notre Dame in this one.

The Pittsburgh Panthers won 3 games last season, and were beaten by double-digits in 7 of those. The Panthers made great use of the transfer portal. They landed QB Eli Holstein ho was at Alabama as a top recruit. Holstein has been better than expected. He has thrown 15 TDs to just 5 INTs at 8.6 yards per attempt. He is also a running threat. Pitt has the #17 ranked defense in the country allowing just 4.6 yards per play. Syracuse landed Ohio St. transfer Kyle McCord and he has been very good on the season. Syracuse does not have a running game and have throw the ball 287 times and run it just 184 times. This one-dimensional offense will be challenged by a deep Pitt defense. Pitt not only has a good defense, they rank #23 in yards per play offensively at 6.3 yards per play. The biggest advantage in this game will be the Pitt offense vs. a poor Syracuse defense. One other overlooked aspect of this game is special teams. Pitt has an NFL kicker that is 28/28 on extra points, and 10/10 on FG's. (he has hit 8/8 from 40+ 3/3 on 50+, with his longest being 58. Syracuse has a big problem kicking. Brady Denaburg and Jadyn Oh are a combined 8/16 on the season, and neither has made one from more than 33 yards out. I rate this edge being worth 3 points. I have the better offense, better defense, and better kicking game at home. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

The LA Chargers have a great situation tonight in their Monday Night clash in the desert vs. the Arizona Cardinals. NFL games often come down to turnovers, which have a huge part in determining the winner. If you could predict turnovers you would be in the driver's seat. Tonight we lean on history. A team that has played 3 straight clean games (no turnovers), and facing a team that has turned the ball over at least a total of 3 times in their last 3 games have gone an exceptional 93-49-4 ATS in their next game. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

The Baltimore Ravens have the best running tandem in the NFL with Henry and Jackson. This game should be interesting as Baker Mayfield seems to have found a home in Tampa. The Bucs offense put up just shy of 600 yards last week. The Bucs are generating 64% of their total passing yards after the catch, and that transitions to a lot of long plays with explosive receivers such as Evans and Godwin. The Ravens defense has not been that good at keeping opponents off the scoreboard as they are allowing 5ppg on the season. The Bucs offense has reached 30 points this season in 4 of their 6 games. I like the Bucs passing game vs. the Ravens running game. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

This is a Super Bowl rematch between a pair of teams that have sights on going back again. San Francisco has had to overcome a lot of injuries, and I think that may be the story here. Chiefs coach Andy Reid has a menacing record coming off a bye where his team is 32-8 SU. Then you add to the mix that Pat Mahomes is 16-2 ATS in his career hen the line is not more than -2 or an underdog. I'm not interested in betting into that, and it is hard to not jump in with these kind of numbers. Make the play on Kansas City.

There will not be a lot of players on the Carolina Panthers this week. The Panthers scoring margin on the season is -16.7 points per game, while the Washington Commanders have a scoring margin of +5.5. When you add them together you get a +22.2 point per game average better that the Panthers. How can Carolina be competitive? History shows once again why the NFL is a contrarian league. An NFL team that has a scoring margin of -20 or more, and playing in a conference game are 110-59-5 ATS!!!! Make the play on Carolina.

The Minnesota Vikings have run the table as they are 5-0 coming into a crucial division game at home vs. the Detroit Lions. Good teams tend to benefit from coming off their bye week. A team that is unbeaten and coming off their bye, and are favored by single digits are 20-2 ATS. The Vikings have also been one of the best turf teams in the NFL as they are 37-19 ATS on turf in their last 56 games.(13-2 ATS last 15). Make the play on Minnesota.

We are getting to the time of year where the weather in Buffalo starts to be a factor. That will not be the case this week as it will be sunny, calm, and dry with a high temperature of 66 degrees is forecast. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 10 of their last 16 home games. The Bills offense has scored a total of 53 points in 3 straight road games, but have topped that considerably at home, here they have scored 30+ in both. This game also fits a situation that is 96-57 to the over. I like over the total in this one.

The story for this game is going to be the weather. Heavy rain, and strong winds up to 30MPH is going to have a lot to say about the outcome. Texas Tech QB Behran Morton likes to throw the ball down field, but the conditions are not going to be favorable for throwing the ball. Morton is averaging a stellar 7.9 yards per attempt on the season, and I don't think he reaches that average in this game. I think the spread is too high for the weather conditions in Lubbock today. Make the play on Baylor.

Army is 6-0 for the first time since 1996, or 28 years ago. They have not played a very difficult schedule to this point, but they have beaten their 6 opponents by a combined score of 238-59. That is an average score of 40-9. East Carolina is not a strong opponent either. The Pirates are 3-3 on the season, and are off a 55-4 loss to Charlotte. Army throws the ball infrequently, but with a lot more success as QB Bryson Daily has thrown for 6 TD's in just 37 attempts. Daily is also a huge threat when he runs the ball as he has generated 738 rushing yards on 107 attempts. The Black Knights have run for over 2200 yards through 6 games. The defense has been equally strong allowing under 10 points per game. Army also fits a situation involving unbeaten teams off a pair of blowout wins that is 55-15-1 ATS. Make the play on Army.

Miami comes into this game at 6-0 to start the season and the Hurricanes potent offense has scored 38 or more points in all 6 games. Miami is averaging 47.7ppg. The Hurricanes allowed just 41 total points in their first 4 games against some bad offensive teams, but they are off of games vs. California and Virginia Tech where they allowed 34, and 38 points. Louisville certainly has a strong offense at 36.2ppg. This game has all the makings of a shootout. The Miami attack is averaging an elite 8.1 yards per play which is # in the nation behind Navy, while the Cardinals are producing 6.9 yards per play which ranks 16th in the country. Both offenses will have a decided advantage hen they have the ball. Make the play over the total.

The UConn Huskies offense has come to life after making a QB switch. Nick Evers completed 51.4% of his passes with 2 TDs and 2 INTs with an average yards per pass at 4.8. Joe Fagnano took over and the offense took off. Fagnano has completed 58.% for 10.2 yards per attempt, and 11 TDs to just 3 INT's, Wake Forest has one of the worst defenses in the country allowing 6.7 yards per play ranking #118. The offense has not been there either ranking #88. Overall UConn has gone 7 years winning 4 or more games just one time, and halfway through the season they have achieved that already, with more to come. Make the play on UConn.

Troy has been a top mid-major the last two years with a combined 23-5 record. Just about all those players are gone, and Troy has dropped off the cliff. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and 0-5 vs. FBS opponents on the season. Troy does not have good numbers on the season, but either does South Alabama. The Jaguars have already lost twice as a favorite this season. These teams are very close in comparing them on both sides of the ball. South Alabama has a slight edge, but not worthy of this size line. I like Troy in this one.

The NY Jets have already fired their coach, as they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers has taken a beating the last 2 games, as he continues to struggle vs. the blitz. The last 2 games he has averaged fewer than 4 yards per pass play. The Vikings, and Broncos rank #1 and #3 in terms of the highest blitzing team. They average blitzing 50% of the time. This week, a shorthanded Buffalo defense that blitzed less than 30 other NFL teams. They will be missing Von Miller and Ed Oliver again. I like over the total in this one.

One of the biggest advantages by a team in the NFL is coming off their bye. The team gets a chance to heal some injuries, and has 13 days to game plan for their opponent. When they are posted as a road favorite, and are on 13 days of rest (off their bye week), they are 112-81-3 ATS. Make the play on Detroit.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened their season at 3-0. They did so by averaging just 17ppg. The defense carried the team, as they allowed just 8.7ppg. The Steelers lost their last 2 games, as they allowed 23.5ppg, and the offense has some limits as we have seen all season. That isn't good news for Pittsburgh. A team off consecutive losses and playing their next game as a road favorite of fewer than 4 points are 12-29-3 ATS. If there opponent is on 5 or 6 days rest it becomes 5-21-2 ATS, including 0-8-1 ATS since 2012. Make the play on the Las Vegas Raiders.

This game is backed by one of my elite betting situations. Denver is backed by a situation that is 109-45-6 ATS, better than 70%. Make the play on Denver.

This game fits a total situation that is 412-354-31 to the under (53.8% on a huge sample size of over 850 games). There is also a subset of that which is 296-227-19 (56.6%). Make the play under the total.

This is going to be a huge game as each enters the contest unbeaten. Ohio St. has an 0.9 yards per play advantage on both sides of the ball. The numbers for Ohio St. are gaudy as the Buckeyes are 5-0 and have out-scored opponents 228-34, but when you look at the total of the 5 lines for their games it is !65.5 points, so they have not faced anyone yet as they have been a -33 point favorite on average in their 5 games. This will be a completely different opponent. Oregon is 14-14 as a home dog, which shows they win a higher percentage of these games vs. a perceived better opponent.From game 6 on a home dog in a game when both teams are unbeaten, and they scored more than 16 points last game are 19-7 ATS, including 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS since 2014! That is 8 straight dog wins in this situation. Make the play on Oregon.

The Rice Owls will host UT San Antonio on Saturday. The Owls have not looked good in terms of their overall record which sits at 1-4. UT San Antonio sits at 2-3, but neither of these teams have covered a game all season against BS competition as they are a combined 0-8 ATS.  Both of these teams struggle offensively, but if I see a couple of edges for Rice in this game. They are home, and they have the better defense. Rice certainly is positioned better to win and cover here. Make the play on Rice.