The Forty Niners play the Rams better and tougher than any other team. They are even in a lot of ways and I consider this game a toss-up. The Rams are home but if you look at the last game played in LA, the crowd was pretty balanced, so I don't expect home field to be worth anything. The Rams are very good playing a base defense, and they realize vs San Francisco that is the way they play them. They did so about 20% of the time on the season, but 52% of the time vs San Francisco, with relative success. The Rams have somewhat of an issue. They have a #3 ranked defense in the first half, but that falls to 13th in the third quarter and 29th in the 4th. The Niners have already experienced that themselves in the last meeting. Cooper Kupp could be a problem. The Niners rank 31st in the league vs #1 WRs, and Kupp went for 118 and 122 yards in the first 2 meetings. Despite that, it wasn't enough to win. They have limited Higby as they have been very good vs TEs al season. I look for a lot of zone defense from San Francisco. Stafford has 12 INTs this season vs zone defenses, and just 3 vs man. The Niners are every bit the equal to the Rams. You probably heard how hard it is to bet a team 3 times in a row in the same season. There has been 3 such incidents where a team won the first 2 meetings, and met for the third time as a dog. Two of the 3 won outright. Small sample size but it destroys the theory that a team can't win all 3. I think the Niners add to the demise of that theory. Make the play on San Francisco.

The final game for the right to be in the Superbowl. The Bengals biggest win of the season came against the Chiefs. A lot has broken right for the Bengals including the 3rd easiest schedule, and favorable playoff match ups with two teams that were worse than they were. Their only top 15 win on the season came against Kansas City, and it took a lot for that to happen, and it was at home. It took a conversion on 3rd and 27, a called back kick off return TD that would have made the score 35-17, and several Kansas City defensive penalties to keep drives going. Additionally, Chase had a game for the ages. Moreover, Hill and Kelce missed the prior week with covid and did not appear to be up to peak conditioning or health. I don't think this game will be close, and I would be surprised if the Chiefs don't put up 40 plus points once again. I don't see the Bengals offensive line holding up in this one as they were exposed last week, and if they are exposed vs the Chiefs again, it will be a blowout. I cap this game at Kansas City -13, and it may be more than that. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

The NFL playoffs have gone through Tom Brady it seems like forever. The defending Super Bowl Champs took a 31-0 lead over Philadelphia to get here, and had that look once again. The Rams however are a much bigger challenge, but until someone dethrones Brady, I have to see it. Matthew Stafford was brought in to take the Rams to the next level, and he has been mostly good, but Stafford has a wide range of expectations. When he is good he can be really good, but he also has a dark bad side and can be really bad. Brady has lost a lot of his offensive firepower as Brown and Godwin are out. It somehow doesn`t seem to matter as the Bucs offense looked crisp last week, and the defense shutdown the Eagles explosive ground game. I think the experience the Bucs have from last year will go a long way in determining the outcome, and Brady is seldom rattled regardless of pressure, which the Rams certainly can provide. I just think the Bucs have the edge in the right places, and until someone can dethrone Brady no matter what it may look like, I`m not going against him. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Green Bay Packers are 13-3 with Rodgers for the 3rd season in a row. That means they don't lose a lot, and in those 3 years under LaFleur they are 9-0 SU and ATS off a loss. The Packers are going to benefit greatly having extra rest. They will have several high-caliber starters back on the field, so expect them to be better. The Niners struggle with the deep ball and Rodgers is primed to exploit that. San Francisco just doesn't have a stand-out in the secondary to cover Adams, and they may turn to more zone coverage, but Rodgers will eat that alive. A team that won their playoff game on the road on a Sunday and are on short rest playing Saturday are 17-32 ATS since 2009. Green Bay went 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS vs playoff teams this year, the best mark in the league. This will be the third straight road game for San Francisco, and 6th in their last 8 games. Aaron Rodgers wins a lot of games because he simply does not turn the ball over, and a team in the playoffs that force more turnovers per game is 33-15-1 ATS in the playoffs. Rodgers owns a 42-21-1 ATS mark off a loss. Green Bay usually has a special teams disadvantage, but the Niners are as bad as they are. Garoppolo is battling injuries as are several of the Forty Niners. Green Bay missed their opportunity to get to the Super Bowl the last 2 years, and I think they are going to be plying at an ultra high level for this one. There is no doubt which QB I want on my side in this one. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Tennessee Titans used an NFL record 91 players this season. Despite all the injuries they still managed to finish the regular season as the #1 seed in the AFC. The Titans have taken a lot of flack for being one of the worst #1 overall seeds in the NFL playoffs ever. Regardless how you spin it, this team has faced 4 of the 8 teams still in the playoffs and beat them all. (SF, LA,Buffalo, and KC. They have a very favorable match up vs Cincinnati. The Bengals were lucky to survive the wild card round, and I think they are going to have a lot more trouble here. Tennessee made great strides this season against the pass. They finished 3oth a year ago, and 11th this year. Their adjusted sack rate went from 31st to 10th, and their hurry rate from 30th to 10th. They have accomplished this by blitzing less than 20% of the time, and Burrow has been far better against a blitz than a 4 man rush this season. Tennessee got to Mahomes 4 times a season high. They also got to Stafford 5 times, which tied a season high, and Tagovialoa 4 times, and he wasn't dropped more than twice all season. The difference has been the addition of Bud Dupree. When he plays the numbers increase dramatically. If Cincinnati can get pressure with just 4 rushers, the Bengals are going to be in a lot of trouble, and with RT Riley Reiff ruled out, and another suspect offensive lineman in Isaiah Prince, the Bengals should be able to pressure Burrow with 4. The Bengals offense improves dramatically when Brown and Jones play the entire game. When Brown plays they are 11-2, when Brown and Jones play they are 7-1, so they are 1-3 without Brown, and 5-4 without both. They will have both for this one. Henry is not much of a factor, except in one area, he provides big play scoring potential, but they have gotten along fine without him. Cincinnati has played 5 straight turnover free games in a row, but has been out-gained by 3 of them. I like Tennessee in this one.

The Arizona Cardinals will meet the LA Rams for thee third time this season. They have split two games, so it is fitting that the winner here moves on. Arizona was 7-0 to start the season and this is what has changed. At 7-0 they scored 31 or more points in 6 of them, since with Murray at QB thy have scored 31 or more points just 1 time in 8 games. Murray had 3 rushing TDs in the first 3 weeks,just 2 since. The defense allowed more than 20 points 1 time at 7-0, and in all 7 games Murray started since. Murray vs the Rams in week 14 had a 72.1 passer rating which was his 2nd worse of the year. Murray had a passer rating of 104 or higher in 6 of the first 7 games, just twice since. The Rams are winning despite the sudden burst if INT thrown by Matthew Stafford.The Rams have made 9 turnovers in the last 4 weeks are despite of it are 3-1, with the only loss by 3 points in overtime, and they are 5-1 in their last 6. Arizona is the most frequent blitzing team in the league but Stafford ranks #1 against the blitz in 140 drop backs. Arizona blitzes 33.6% of the time. That isn't going to go well for them unless they step out of character. Murray will be starting his first playoff game, and a QB making his playoff debut against a QB that isn't have gone 17-38-1 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this year). If this is a teams first playoff game in at least 2 seasons and going against a team that is a repeat playoff team they are 21-39-1 ATS. If they are on the road it gets worse where they are 6-20-1 ATS. If the line is -5.5 to +5.5 they are 0-9 ATS! Make the play on the LA Rams.

Pittsburgh limped into the playoffs as Indianapolis stumbled vs the Houston Texans, opening the door for Pittsburgh to creep into the playoffs. This looks like the last time around for Ben Roethlisburger. All his numbers are in decline and the Steelers offense has managed just 20.4ppg on the season. The Steelers have been out-gained by 35 yards per contest, and now have to deal with a Kansas City team that has rediscovered their elite offense and has averaged 35.4ppg in their last 5, while the defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7. NFL playoff games with a home favorite of 10 points or more are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS since 2008, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 where they have won by an average of 18ppg. Make the play on Kansas City.

Mr. East Sun Jan 16th, 2022 4:30 pm EST Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY THROWBACK
Expert Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco used to be arch enemies as they met in the playoffs what seems like every season. It has been 27 years since they have played each other in the post-season. Perhaps this should be the Madden game, as he and Pat Summerall called 8 consecutive Dallas vs San Francisco games over a 6 year period in the '90s, which included 3 straight NFC Championship Games. Dallas has for the most part been consistently good all season, while the Niners found themselves in the second half of the season. San Francisco tied with Tampa Bay for the best record in the NFL in their last 9 games at 7-2, which is better than Dallas. The Niners running game has become elite, and that is the most vulnerable area of the Dallas defense. The 49ers have had 10 drives that used at least 7 minutes of clock on the season, and have had drives of over 11 and 13 minutes. The Dallas defensive front has allowed 100 rushing yards in 11 of its final 12 games. The Dallas offense is going to come down to pressure. San Francisco defends the run very well, as they do short passes, where they rank 4th. They are however dead last defending deep passes, and if they give Prescott time to look deep, Amari Cooper is going to win the game for Dallas. The Niners have been flagged 23 times for defensive pass interference and a total of 367 yards. Worst in the league. Lamb has not been nearly close to the level of Cooper on deep throws. Prescott has thrown 5 of his 7 INT when looking for Lamb deep. The good news for San Francisco is they play a lot of cover 3 to hide their deep pass vulnerability and Prescott has just 3 TDs and 3 INTs facing a cover 3 defense. It will come down to how much pressure the Niners front 7 can get on Prescott. Dallas has 34 offensive holding calls against them this year top in the league, and Dallas has 2 wins vs Philadelphia to show for their games against teams that made the playoffs, and losses to everyone else outside of New England who wasn`t the same team early in the season at 2-4. I think the Niners have a better shot at dictating the tempo, and the line of scrimmage and running dogs in the playoffs tend to perform very well. When 2 teams meet in the wildcard game that did not make the playoffs the previous season the home team is 3-13 SU and 2-14 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.
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The Philadelphia Eagles did enough to make it to the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Some of the numbers inside of that record speak volumes. The Eagles did not beat a winning team all season. They also finished the season at 0-6 SU vs playoff teams where they lost by an average of 13.3ppg. Against everyone else they were 9-2 and won by an average of 13.2ppg. That is an amazing 26.5ppg swing, and the highest such differential in NFL playoff history. The Bucs have been a lethal team playing at home where they have lost just 1 time all season. They beat Philly on the road earlier this season 28-22 in a game they led 28-7 and held Philadelphia to 5 consecutive possessions where they generated 0 first downs and 28 total yards. The Bucs obviously pulled back, but that won't be the case in the playoffs. This will be Jalen Hurts first playoff teams which is usually a harbinger of what to expect. A first time playoff QB facing a team that does not have a first time QB is 17-36-1 ATS since 2004! Moreover a playoff team that won fewer than 6 games the previous season (Philadelphia was 4-11-1 last year), are 13-31 ATS in the playoffs the following season. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

The Buffalo Bills split a pair of games in the regular season. The Patriots won in a game that featured extreme winds and did so by passing just 3 times the entire game. Buffalo dominated the rematch in every facet of the game on the road in New England just 3 weeks ago. The Bills have been the best NFL team this season from a statistical standpoint. They have out-gained their opponents by 109 yards per game, and a full yard per play. Josh Allen has had a very good season, but not a great one, but he has a dimension that makes him hard to play against. He is a highly skilled runner, and can make plays with his legs. Since beating Buffalo in the wins, the Patriots just have not looked the same. They have played 4 times and the only team they beat was Jacksonville. They lost the other 3 games by a minimum of 9 points. I think Buffalo has real chance to come out of the AFC and represent then in the Super Bowl. There is a lot more talent on both sides of the ball, and it will show at home in 5 degree weather, which I think impacts Mac Jones more than Allen. Playoff teams with a QB starting his first playoff game vs one that has experience, are 17-36-1 ATS since 2004. Make the play on Buffalo.

The path to the playoffs was completely different for these teams. The Bengals won to put them in a tie for the division lead in week 15. They took the division lead the following week, and clinched the division in week 17. The cardiac Raiders were in 11th place in the AFC entering week 15. They had a margin of error of 0, and proceeded to win their final 4 games by a combined 12 points. It went all the way down to the final play of their final game to get in. The Bengals took advantage of an easy schedule that saw them face just 6 teams that made the playoffs out of a 17 game schedule. When you take a look at the stats this game is pretty even, but the Bengals by virtue of their big win against Kansas City where the offense looked scary good, has really impacted this game. The Bengals are going to struggle to stop Jacobs. Jacobs ranked 3rd in the NFL in broken tackles (56), and the Bengals defense allowed more broken tackles than any team besides the lowly Detroit Lions. The Raiders have another weapon in Renfro that who finished 4th among all WRs in broken tackles. The outcome of this game is going to come down to how much pressure the Raiders can put on Burrough. Burrough only played 3 games vs top 10 defenses, and had 6 vs bottom 10 defenses. He was sacked 50 times, and threw made a lot of mistakes. Maxx Crosby may be the key for the Raiders defense. While he had just 8 sacks, he led the NFL with 51 pressures, and if he has success putting pressure on Burrough he is likely going to make some costly mistakes. I think this game is a lot closer than it looks, and the Raiders have a lot of experience in close games having gone 7-2 on the season in one-possession games. That includes 4-0 in overtime games, while the Bengals were just 4-5 in one score games. The weather should not be a factor with the temperature around freezing and light winds. Make the play on Las Vegas.

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

It is not surprising to see Alabama and Georgia in the Championship game. They have been the best teams all season so it all comes done to one game to win it all. Georgia was nearly a 7 point favorite in the SEC Championship Game. That was based on the full body of work of both these teams. Suddenly the line is Georgia by 2.5. That means the full body of work has been replaced by recency bias and a 41-24 Alabama win in the SEC Title game. I'm not sure any game is worth 4 points on the line, especially when you look at the aftermath. Alabama beat Cincinnati soundly 27-6. Cincinnati was just too small up front and the Alabama running game ate them alive. Brian Robinson went for 204 yards. He went nowhere vs Georgia as he generated 55 yards on 16 attempts. Alabama lost John Mechie in the Georgia game. Metchie had 6 catches for 97 yards and a TD before departing with an ACL injury. Alabama has secondary issues. Josh Jobe is out, and Jalyn Armar-Davis left the Cincinnati game with a hip injury. The Alabama offensive line saw Emil Elkiyor leave the Cincinnati game with a shoulder injury, and his back up is a freshman. Chris Owens left with a leg injury, and Darian Dalcourt is banged up as well. Alabama played its best game of the season in the first meeting, and Georgia their worst. Alabama needed the game more, and played like it. The entire 1st meeting came down to Alabama scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter. Think about the fact that Georgia allowed 17 or fewer points in every other game this season. Alabama didn't sustain drives as 28 points came on 3 drives totaling 14 plays, and a pick-6. Mechie and Williams combined for 281 yards and 3 TDs, and Mechie left the game. They will focus on Williams, and expect a lot of pressure on Young. George Pickens will be as healthy as he has been all season for Georgia, and he could be a huge factor. Alabama has had pass protection issues at times this season, and with a banged up offensive line, and a Georgia defense that is going to seek revenge, it will be different this time. The longest running play by either team in the first meeting was 15 yards. The memory of game 1 makes Georgia a tough sell. Everything went wrong in that game, and after watching Georgia manhandle Michigan, that more closely resembles this team than the debacle vs Alabama. Make the play on Georgia.

Saturday January 8th, 2022

  Top Side Play · [470] Philadelphia Eagles

    Sat Jan 8th, 2022 8:15pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

While there is still a chance the Kansas City Chiefs can overtake the Tennessee Titans for the number 1 overall seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs the line has been radically changed for that purpose. The fact that Tennessee is going against Houston makes the likelihood a lot smaller. The bigger thing in play here is the over-adjustment to the line is well noted in NFL late season games where a team that is eliminated from the playoffs facing a team that is still jockeying for position tends to go the way of the under dog. Beyond that a team with a lower winning percentage in the final game of the season is 254-198-10 ATS covering 56.2% of all games. Make the play on Denver.

The final bowl game of the season prior to the National Championship game takes place tonight as LSU (6-6) takes on Kansas St. (7-5). LSU has ended the short-lived Ed Orgeron era. Following a perfect 15-0 National Championship season, the Bayou Bengals have been just 11-11. What this team looked like at the beginning of the season is completely different than the team that will be on the field tonight. Injuries, opt-outs, transfers, and academic causulties has devastated this roster that now has just 40 or so scholarship players. Kansas St. is heading the other way as QB Skylar Thompson will start his 4oth game for Kansas St. The offense is much better when he plays, and the defense is solid. Kansas St. lost their final 2 games without Thompson despite allowing 20 and 22 points. Without Thompson the Wildcats were 5-22 on 3rd down and 1-4 on 4th down. Brad Davis will be the interim coach for LSU tonight, and the coaching advantage is in favor of Kansas St. The more motivated team is Kansas St. I think the Wildcats control this game start to finish on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is a pretty good chance that Tennessee will have Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back on the field Sunday. This should add a lot more firepower to the Titans offense. Both sides have some minor covid issues, but most appear will be resolved by game-time. Miami has rattled off 7 straight wins, and turnover margin has been the biggest reason, as their opponents have averaged 2 turnovers per game in the last 7. A good part of that is random, so don't expect the same numbers going forward. The Titans have committed 4+ turnovers in 3 of its last 5 games, and that won't continue either. What it does do is set up a turnover situation that plays on certain recent turnover differentials, that is 137-72 ATS. It favors the Titans this week. Make the play on Tennessee.

This is a game that feature a long winning streak by the Chiefs. That usually has the effect of making odds-makers over valuing the team on the long streak. There are a lot of very strong situations favoring the Bengals in this game. One is to play against a road favorite of -4 points or more, from game 12 on if they are favored by 4 or more points. Those teams are 1-19-1 ATS. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is no longer playoff hopes for either the Chicago Bears or the NY Giants. Both teams are off yet another disappointing season, as the rebuild in Chicago and New York seems to still be a long way off. Each team is dealing with extensive roster issues as the injury bug has plagued both teams, so it is a matter of will here that will have a lot of input on the winner of this game. I just don`t see the Bears being just about a TD and extra point better than anyone right now. The Bears own 5 wins on the season, and 3 of those have come by 3 points or fewer. It has been nearly 3 months since the Bears won a game by 7 or more points. Make the play on the NY Giants.

Baylor at 11-2 may be one of the most under-appreciated teams in the country. Right there with them is Ole Miss. One huge step toward winning this game is that The Ole Miss elite QB, Matt Corral is playing. I think he has truly been one of the most important players on any team this season. Ole Miss has been showing up big for bowl games as the Rebel's are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. This game fits the coaches experience advantage over their opposing coach, and for Baylor Coach Aranda this will be his first ever bowl. Ole Miss had 3 WR's banged up in some crucial games, but are finally healthy and that means a strong offense should be stronger. The QB edge is huge here and that is the most important player on the field. Make the play on Ole Miss.

It is going to be hard for Ohio St. to bring their "A" game despite the fact that this is the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon at home, and fell to Michigan in their season finale for the first time in years. A trip to the playoffs were lost in those 2 games. The defense is not up to the level this team has achieved in prior years as 4 opponents went for 30+ against Ohio St., while the elite offense was limited by the better defenses they faced. The offense will be without 2 of their top 3 WR in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The pair combined for 25 of the 40 Ohio St. passing TD (62.5%), as well as 2,000 receiving yards of the 4300 generated by the Ohio St. passing game. They have also lost their leader in sacks in Haskell Garrett, and they will be missing their top offensive tackle. Utah opened the season losing twice in its first 3 games to BYU and San Diego St. They also blew a 10 point lead to Oregon st. That loss seemed to bring this team together as they went on to finish 6-0 beating Oregon twice, as well as UCLA. They averaged 40ppg in the 5 contests allowing just 16 and vs Oregon twice and UCLA won by a combined score of 120-41. Uth has a very strong bowl history as they are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS. That includes 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Utah.

Notre Dame comes into this game having won their last 4 games by a combined score of 162-23. That is about as good as it gets. The problem is the competition was awful other than Virginia but the Cavs were without their dynamic QB in that game. The role will be reversed as they take on Oklahoma St. who missed qualifying for the playoffs by inches. This time it is Notre Dame missing some key pieces, including coach Kelly who took the job at LSU. Moreover, the Irish will be without star RB Kyren Williams, as well as their top defender in DB Kyle Hamilton. The Irish have severely under-achieved in Neww Year's 6 or BCS Bowls. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. Oklahoma St. lost to Baylor 21-16 without RB Warren, but the defense has been ultra elite. They allow just 278 yards per game and 16.8ppg. They rank #3 in the country holding opposing offenses to 146 yards per game below their season average. Additionally they have recorded a nation's best 53 sacks including 32 in their last 5 games. I like Oklahoma St. in this one.

It would be easy to look at Iowa at 10-3 and Kentucky at 9-3 and figure Kentucky played in the SEC so they must have had a much tougher schedule. That would be a problem because Iowa played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Looking at the Kentucky 9 wins I just don't see anything impressive, and the strength of schedule Iowa faced is considerably stronger. Kentucky relies heavily on a potent ground game, but Iowa has allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, and this defense is going to be fresh coming into this contest. The Iowa offense does not scare anyone, as the Hawkeyes have had trouble moving the ball most of the season. Iowa is very good at turning their opponent over. Kentucky struggled to move the ball themselves vs better teams. It comes down to turnovers and the battle in the trenches and I see Iowa having the edge in both. Bowl coaching situation adds to the mix. Make the play on Iowa.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

The last time Georgia took the field they were manhandled by the Alabama passing attack. Young is an elite QB with a lot of weapons and that may be the only team in America that could beat the Georgia defense. I think Georgia is aching for another shot at Alabama, and are going to be a handful in this game. Remember Georgia gave up 83 points all season, and I think you are going to see Michigan get completely shutdown in this one. The Wolverines finally got over the hurdle of beating Ohio St. The question is if the moment is bigger than this team, and if they can solve the elite Georgia defense. Don't expect anything close to what happened in the Alabama game. Michigan is very vulnerable to the defensive personnel of Georgia, and they will be in the Michigan backfield all game, and I really think this one could get ugly. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball and I think they run ll over Michigan, especially in the 2nd hlf when the punishing ground game takes over. Make the play on Georgia.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a college football playoff fixture throughout the tenure of Nick Saban. They will take on an unbeaten Cincinnati team that may just have the secondary to cover some of the outside weapons that Alabama possesses. One of those weapons will be missing from this game as John Mechie went down with a torn ACL. The Tide has not been without close calls this season. They have played 4 games where they did not win by more than 7 points, the most since 2014. The last 4 times in the Saban era the Tide played 3 or more games where they did not win by more than 7 points have not turned out as well as when they didn`t. The 4 years it occurred they were out-scored by their opponent in the playoffs by 3 points per game. Cincinnati has the back side of the defense that could certainly give the elite Alabama passing game enough trouble to make this a tight contest. Cincinnati went to Notre Dame and built a 17-0 halftime lead on their way to a 24-13 win. No team on their schedule topped 28 points and just 2 scored more than 21. Alabama is off their best game of the season as they manhandled Georgia. I don`t expect a duplicate here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Unlike Rutgers, Central Michigan was practicing and planning to play against Boise St. That game was canceled and C. Michigan volunteered to play Washington St. in the Sun Bowl. I think the match up here is going to favor a lot of scoring. I`m surprised this game is still sitting in the 50s. I see this game approaching 70. The Washington St. offense took off late in the season as the Cougars averages 35.5ppg in their last 4 games, and just 24.4ppg prior to that. Central Michigan has done the same. The Chip`s last 4 games saw them average 41ppg! I think the opportunity lies here for C. Michigan to hang tight, win outright, or get a backdoor cover. Make the play on Central Michigan.

Wake Forest had a record setting year, and while this appears like it could be a letdown game, it is just the opposite. Wake Forest is glad to be able to get rewarded to a Bowl game that appeared as if it was not going to happen. The weakness for Wake Forest has been the defense. A closer look certain tells the story of what to expect here. I think most won't pick up on this. Wake allowed 34 points or more in 7 of its games, but those were against mostly potent or at least average to above averages opposing offenses. When they faced mediocre offensive teams (Old Dominion, Florida St., Duke, BC, Norfolk St., and even a good offense in Virginia, none of the 6 teams scored more than 17 points against them. Enter Rutgers. Rutgers didn't practice for 3 weeks. They also had 5 players sign with agents that will not be eligible for this game. Rutgers opened the season at 3-0, and then the competition went up. They were 2-7 from that point on. Against their 6 strongest opponents they combined to get out-scored 223-58! That is an average score of 9.7-39 or just about an average loss of 30ppg. Now they play without a full compliment of players that didn't practice for 3 weeks, and have just a few days of practice against an elite offense, and I don't see them staying within 3 TD. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Both these teams finished the regular season at 8-4. Their 8-4 record is not as good as their stats. They out-gained their opponents by 141 yards per game on the season, and the defense is ultra elite allowing a stingy 4.2 yards per play. Arizona St. will not be able to run the ball here as the Badgers allow just 2.2 yards per carry on the season, and they are also 1 yard better defending the pass than their schedule of opponents generated. Arizona St. lost their top 2 running backs as they opted out as well as a pair of players in their secondary. Wisconsin also fits the bowl coaching experience situation that has been money in bowls for a long time including this year. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It was a disappointing year for North Carolina with their 6-6 finish. QB Sam Howell came back and the Heels thought they would be a top 10 team, but it didn't pan out. The good news Sam Howell is playing in the bowl game. South Carolina also finished 6-6. The heels as a 6-6 team had a 1 yard advantage over SC from the line of scrimmage per play. SC is also losing their top RB and top defensive player for this game. The SEC has yet to win a bowl game as of 12/28 (0-4). North Carolina has a huge advantage in the running game as they are elite, and SC is awful. This game also fits the bowl coach experience advantage. Mack Brown is +22 the biggest differential of any bowl. These coaches are 134-92-1 ATS including 12-5 ATS this year through 12/28. Make the play on North Carolina.

For a Bowl game on December 29th this has all the makings of a New Yea's Day type bowl. Both these teams were on the cusp of the playoffs. Getting to the game, both teams have a few opt outs, and I consider a slight edge to Oklahoma on the advantage that has created. Both coaches have moved on so Oregon will be led by Bryan McClendon, and Oklahoma by Bob Stoops. I give the coaching edge to Stoops. I also think the QB match up favors Oklahoma. I would take Williams over Brown every time. Oregon started the season challenged by Fresno St. and went to Ohio St. and pulled the shocking upset. It looked at the time like Oregon was an elite team with a strong chance at a playoff spot. They were 4-0 and suffered their own shocking loss to Stanford 31-24 in OT. They played arguably the best Pac-12 team late in the season in Utah twice, and lost by a combined score of 76-17, and that was it for the Ducks. I like the match up here in favor of the Sooners. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Iowa St. began the season ranked in the top 10. This was supposed to be the year Iowa St. broke through, with a legitimate chance to win the Big-12, and qualify for the playoffs. Right from the very start trouble showed itself. The Cyclones barely got by FCS Northern Iowa 16-10, an proceeded to lose to Iowa 27-17. The net result was a highly disappointing 7-5 finish. Now the Cyclones lose Breece Hall who has opted out, and he was the main cog in the offense as the Cyclones running game was potent. QB Brock Purdy, a 4 year starter did not have the tear most expected as the Cyclone's passing game was just a tick above average generating 7.9 yards per attempt, to a schedule of teams that combined to allow 7.6. Clemson started the season slowly on offense. Through 7 games they averaged just 15.2ppg and stood at 4-3. The offense grew from that point on and Clemson averaged 36.3ppg in finishing the season 5-0. The defense remains strong as no team scored more than 27 points on them all season. I like Clemson in this one.

This game will be played in New York City. The weather looks to be fine with some showers in the morning, and in the 40s. Virginia Tech is one of those teams with significant opt outs. As it looks right now QB Braxton Burmeister, WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amari Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, and OG Lecitus Smith have all opted out. That will make for a tough game for the Hokies as they barely qualified for a bowl at full strength at 6-6. Speaking of barely qualified the Hokies did not have a win all season vs a team with a winning record. Maryland got pounded by the elite teams on their schedule. They lost to Iowa, Ohio St., Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. They beat everyone on their level, and with all the players out for Virginia Tech, the Hokies are simply not on their level entering this game. Make the play on Maryland.

West Virginia struggled this season when the offense had the ball. It is going to get a lot more difficult in this games vs the #4 rated Minnesota defense. Making that even more difficult is their best offensive player Leddie Brown has opted out and won't play. Minnesota has really had injury issues at running back. Mohamed Ibrahim was lost in game 1. Tyson Potts was lost in the Purdue game. Bryce Williams went down. Cam Wiley entered the portal, Despite all that Ky Thomas, and Mar'Keise Irving have down exceptionally well. The pair has generated 1,250 rushing yards on just 259 attempts. Tanner Morgan has not had a good year, but the continued success of the ground game has him throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt. West Virginia has lost the heart of their running attack and Minnesota has the #15 rated pass defense in the country. They have held their last 6 opponents to 250 total yards on average, and held all opposing offenses to 96 yards below their season average, ranking #5. I see a lot of advantages here for the Gophers, make the play on Minnesota.

This is a very interesting game. I don't think Mike Leech has ever accepted being booted out at Texas Tech. It was probably a bad move on the part of the school. Since Leach left the Red Raiders have not completed any of their last 12 seasons above .500 in the Big-12 Conference games. Bowl games are about motivation, and I think this game is a priority for Miss St. and the players are going to hear about it every day. Miss St. played a very strong schedule that included 6 ranked teams and finished 3-3. They lost to Arkansas in the last :22 seconds after missing 3 FG in the game, and in losses to Memphis and LSU they combined to out-gain those teams by 366 total yards. The Bulldogs defense despite the elite schedule of opponents held opposing offenses to 75 yards per game fewer than the offensive averages they faced, top 10 in the country. They had a yardage edge in 4 of their 5 losses. Texas Tech barely got here tat 6-6 and almost lost to SF Austin. Mike Leach loves to throw the ball and Texas Tech ranked #117 against the pass this season which is the worst of any bowl team. Texas Tech is down to its 3rd string QB who started the last 3 games in D. Smith, and he will be under duress the entire game. Revenge is a huge factor here as well. Make the play on Miss St.

The Louisville Cardinals barely made it to a Bowl game at 6-6. This despite the efforts of do everything QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham ran for 968 yards and threw for 2,733, and combined for 37 TD. It wasn't enough as Louisville was just 2-6 SU when playing against a Bowl bound team this season. Air Force is the #1 rushing team in the nation, and after watching Louisville get gauged for 362 yards at 6 yards per attempt, and allowing 52 points as a favorite vs Kentucky, they could be in trouble here. The Cards have not faced the option all season. The Mountain West is already 4-0 in Bowl games on the season. A team that finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 51-30 ATS in their last 81 Bowls. Many top situations ride with the Falcons in this one. Make the play on Air Force.

Auburn will get the semi-home field edge here playing in Birmingham. Will it be enough? The Tigers lost Bo Nix, and finished with 4 straight losses and averaged just 19ppg in the 4 games. TJ Finley has taken over but his status is in question as he is dealing with an ankle injury. Moreover, sever key players have opted out of this game for Auburn, and the circumstances here do not look like a team poised to deliver their best effort. Houston book-ended an opening game loss and an AAC Championship loss with 11 straight wins. The Cougars played Cincinnati tough losing the yardage battle by just 64 yards, and had a 1 turnover disadvantage. Auburn finished just 36 yards better than their opponents from the line of scrimmage, while Houston held a 117 yard edge, but Auburn faced a much more difficult schedule. The main concern here is I don't think Auburn envisioned playing on December 28th vs an AAC team. With the poor finish, a backup QB, and several key opt outs, is this a spot of the "A" game? I don't think so. Houston should be very motivated to go against a name SEC school and get their 12th win of the season. I like their chances here. Make the play on Houston.

The New Orleans Saints have had injury issues all season and the QB spot has been hit the hardest. Winston, Siemian, and now Hill are all out. Their 4th string QB Ian Book will get his first NFL start. I don't expect Sean Payton to expect much, and the game plan is going to revolve around Alvin Kamara as he is going to be burdened with a lot of the offensive load. It will be the Saints defense that will have to step up. Miami has worked their way into the playoff picture at 7-7. Miami has won 6 straight games. That includes wins over the Giants, Houston, Carolina, and the Jets twice. New Orleans is also 7-7 and very much alive in the NFC playoff race. Book can run a little and I think the Saints will rely on his legs more than his arm, and will generate enough offense to get the win. Make the play on New Orleans.

Nevada had great expectations for this season. They have a prolific QB and all the pieces for a great season. They finished 8-4 which wasn't as good as expected. They now have lost their coach for the Bowl game, and their do-everything QB Carson Strong. This team is missing their top 5 wide receivers and tight ends, and missing pieces in the offensive line. The starter will be Nate Cox, who threw 20 passes this year 15 of which came against New Mexico St,and Idaho St. They can't run the ball at all and 83.2% of their yards this season have come in the air. W. Michigan lost 5 games, one was to Michigan, and in the other 4 losses they had 11 turnovers to their opponents 0. They also beat a ranked Pittsburgh team. They average 8 yards per pass attempt, but they can also run as they averaged 203 yards per game. I think this is a huge disappointment bowl for Fresno St., while Western Michigan will be glad to be here. Make the play on Western Michigan.

This game is strictly an extremely strong situation that is 71-24 ATS. Make the play on Chicago.

It seems like every game is important as we come down the stretch of the NFL season. Baltimore and Cincinnati are both 8-6 and the winner will have a leg up on the hotly contested AFC North. Baltimore will again be without Lamar Jackson, but Tyler Huntley got noticed last week. He was 28-40 for 215 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT. He also ran 13 times for 73 yards and a pair of TD. Baltimore will try and do what they did in Green Bay. They will use the short passing and running game to keep from getting exposed from the Bengal passing game. Baltimore still has a lot of covid-19 question marks, but this is still a very good team, and if Huntley can use his legs like last week, and not make mistakes, the Ravens are going to be in this one to win it s they were last week against Green Bay. Make the play on Baltimore.

Minnesota has been eliminated from the NFC North, but at 7-7 their wildcard hopes are going to improve or go south after this week. The Vikings follow their game with the Rams by going to Green Bay, so they have a lot of work to do. Kirk Cousins has injured ribs but will play, but unfortunately for the Vikings Dalvin Cook will not, and that is big. Additionally, Adam Thielen is questionable. The Rams are finally playing as well as the talent level the team possesses. The Rams have won 3 straight and are currently 1 of 4 NFC teams at 10-4, so obviously this is a huge game for them as well. The biggest take away from this game is the Rams play makers are healthy and the Vikings are not. Make the play on the LA Rams.

Jacksonville finally made a coaching change, but it made little difference as the Jags lost to Houston 30-16. It marks their 6th straight loss. It was also the 8th straight game Jacksonville scored 17 points or less. They are averaging 13.7ppg on the road for the season. The Jets are dealing with covid-19 issues with about 15 or so players, but none have been ruled out yet. The Jags are still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to show something but his 9 TD and 14 INT are woeful for the expectations he brought. Zach Wilson hasn't been much better for the Jets. The jets have turned the ball over just 4 times in their last 5 games, and that is where the edge is in this game as Lawrence has been a turnover machine all season, and the Jets do have a pass rush so it won't be easy for Lawrence, especially on the road. Make the play on the NY Jets.

The New England Patriots have a game lead on the Buffalo Bills and can punch their ticket as AFC Champs with a win. That wil not be easy as Buffalo lost a tough one at home 14-10 to the Patriots just less than 3 weeks ago. The game was tough to use as a gauge as the winds were gusting up to 60 MPH, and New England won despite passing the ball just 3 times. New England followed that game with a loss vs Indianapolis 27-17. The Bills are significantly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they will be playing for revenge. The Bills know they have to win here, or suddenly even their chance of getting into the playoffs as a wild card become suspect. I like the feel for this game. The Bills have revenge, they are playing for their playoff lives, and are the better team. MAke the play on Buffalo.

Saturday December 25th, 2021

  Top Side Play · [454] Green Bay Packers
    Sat Dec 25th, 2021 4:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Georgia St finished with 3 straight wins to qualify for a Bowl game. They played a very difficult schedule with 5 of their losses coming to Army, NC, Auburn, App. St., and LA Lafayette. They had a huge win as well vs Coastal Carolina. The Panthers beat the mid-level teams on its schedule with a bruising ground game and finished in the top 10 in the country in rushing yards per game. A team finishing in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 50-30 ATS in their last 80 Bowl games. Ball St. has a brutal offense and on the season they were out-gained by 80 yards per game. Make the play on Georgia St.

The situation in Florida is pretty messy. The Gators will have a new coach next year, and a lot of players have opted out of the Bowl game vs Central Florida. They finished 6-6 and I see a lot of action in favor of UCF. Florida played a much tougher schedule and consider this. They out-gained Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida St., and Kentucky. They seemed to be the type of team that was good vs elite teams, and a no-show vs scrub teams. UCF is not anywhere close to the team they have been over the past several years. Florida out-gained a rugged schedule of teams by 109 yards per game. Central Florida by just 31. UCF plays at a speedy tempo, but because the offense and QB are mediocre, they have run 7 fewer plays than their opponents this season, instead of dominating with a  fast tempo it hurts them. They are also the 2nd worst team in ball security in the country. I think the Gators win easily here. Make the play on Florida.

The story line out of North Texas is pretty amazing. The Mean Green went 0-6 against FBS teams to start the season. They were out-scored 231-117 in the 6 games. Then this team suddenly started to get it, and there was a game to game improvement. The Mean Green went on to finish the season at 5-0 out-scoring opponents 182-85! That was a 65 point improvement on offense, and a 146 point improvement on defense. It may be the largest team transition in a current season ever. This team is playing close to home and should have a crowd advantage here, and there is no doubt this team will come in confident, and ready to play. They knocked of unbeaten at the time UTSA 45-23 in their last game of the season. Miami, Ohio is 6-6 but to their credit, they lost some tough games. This team is now in the favorite role, and has shown the lack of ability to close out games, which makes them a tough sell. North Texas is about 30 minutes from home, and this will turn out to be a home game, for a very motivated team. The MAC has fared extremely poorly in Bowl games as their record over the last 5 Bowl seasons is a woeful 5-23 SU, including 0-4 this year. Make the play on North Texas.

Wednesday December 22nd, 2021

It was a huge year for UT San Antonio finishing at 12-1. You have to sit back and think of what that 12-1 record would have been in the Mountain West Conference where San Diego St. finished 11-2. Conference USA saw bowl teams go 0-7 SU last year and the conference is just 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 bowl games. San Diego St. is all about defense as the Aztecs own the 14th best defense in the country. San Diego St. got blown out in the MWC Championship game, but they were missing several players due to covid-19. The only other loss was vs Fresno St. by 10 where they turned the ball over 3 times and Fresno St. did not have a turnover. UTSA seemed to wear down as the season progressed and were out-scored in their last 3 games, despite being +3 in turnovers. San Diego St. owns the bowl coaching experience edge here, which has been highly predictive over the years. Make the play on San Diego St.

Wyoming struggled with consistency all season. They took a 14-3 loss to New Mexico which was the only game the Lobos covered all season, and less than a month later beat Mountain West Conference Champion Uth St. 47-17. The Cowboys gained well over 600 yards in the win. When this team is at its best they are far and away the better team, and I would think playing in a Bowl game we should see that side of this team here. Kent St. relies on their offense to win games, as the Golden Flashes have allowed 41 or more points in 4 of its last 5 games. Wyoming also owns the bowl coach experience situation here as that has proven worthy over the years and is now 126-89-1 ATS (4-2 ATS this bowl season). There is also the fact that Wyoming played here already this season, and are used to the high altitude which could prove to impact Kent St. a lot more. Make the play on Wyoming.

The Chicago Bears have little left to play for after losing to the Packers last week. Chicago scored 30 points in that game, but half of those points can be credited to the Packer poor special teams. This is a difficult motivational spot for the Bears, and a lot of personnel issues they face make this a daunting task. Chicago will be missing their entire starting secondary. The Bears are also down 3 starting tackles for this game, much as they were against Green Bay, and Justin Fields was under pressure all game. Kirk Cousins has quietly had a great season with 23 TD's to just 5 INT. He should pick apart the shorthanded secondary, and with Fields facing pressure all game, I don't see the Bears keeping up in this one. Make the play on Minnesota.

The Cleveland Browns have a mess on their hands with over 20 players dealing with covid-19 issues that moved the game to Monday. Some may play, as others sit out, but you can be sure the Brown's practices for this week have not been able to address or rehearse much of a game plan. Vegas on the other hand has no reported players on the injury report and is the healthiest team in the NFL. Vegas was trampled last week by Kansas City 48-9. They handed the game over to the Chiefs by committing 5 turnovers while forcing 0. A team losing by 31 or more points the previous week covers 55% of their next game. Tough spot for Cleveland, that possibly will be down to a 3rd string QB. Make the play on Vegas.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

It took a game vs the Jets for New Orleans to end a 5 game losing streak. Prior to that the Saints lost 3 straight by double-digits, and now take on last year's Superbowl Champs that is starting to make their stretch drive. The Bucs have won and covered 4 straight games and lost to New Orleans earlier in the season 36-27. The Bucs were -3 in turnovers in that game, and will be seeking revenge in prime time tonight. The Bucs elite offense has gained 418 yards per game over ts last 4 and has produced 30 points or more in all of them. Tampa Bay will be playing its 7th game of the season as a double-digit favorite and are 5-1 ATS in the first 6 winning by an average of 18.2ppg. The margin has been 20+ in 4 of them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his last 45 home games as a favorite, including 23-7 ATS as a favorite from -10 to -17 points. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

It is becoming more apparent that Lamar Jackson may miss the game vs. Green Bay. At best for the Ravens is he plays at less than 100%. The Ravens are in need of a win, and with or without Jackson, I think they are going to show up this week against the new #1 team in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers now hold their own destiny to retain the #1 seed in the NFC and get all playoff games at Lambeau. How important is that? The Packers are 6-0 at home and just 4-3 on the road. While three of the road games resulted in losses, three of the wins came by three points or fewer. This is just an entirely different team home vs. away. This line has really gone over the top as the difference in this team on the road vs. at home is considerable. And while they may carve out a win, the number is too high now. Make the play on Baltimore.

The Niners' season was about to go south, but they have gone 4-1 in their last five games and are now well in the playoff hunt. There are a lot of teams packed together, so each game carries a lot of weight. They may have become overrated as the reason they are winning is they have had an 11-4 turnover advantage over their last five games. The Niners have allowed 79 points in their last 3 games or 26.3ppg, and the once proud defense has slipped considerably. The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 on the road where for some reason they have played so much better. They have been better on both sides of the ball on the road vs playing at home. The Falcons are in the playoff hunt and I like them to hang around in this one. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally fired Urban Meyer before he even completed one season. They basically had no choice as the negatives against him were becoming overwhelming. I believe the Jags get an emotional bump as so many players hated him, and I think the attitude will improve and the Jags play their best game of the year. Typically a team improves from the firing date of the head coach until the close of the season. Trevor Lawrence has struggled with pressure all season but the Texans get very little pressure. James Robinson could be in for a big day, as the Houston defense allows 4.7 yards per carry. Houston has been a much worse team with Davis Mills at QB. They are averaging fewer than 10ppg. The Jags were shutout last game but an NFL team coming off a shutout has been a 55.4% winner ATS over many years. Make the play on Jacksonville

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

It will be a Saturday Night in New England with snow falling. Fortunately for the Indianapolis Colts it won't matter as this game is at home under a dome. While the New England Patriots with 7 straight wins and covers under their belt are grabbing all the headlines, the Colts are a stealthy team that started 1-4 and have gone 6-2 over their last 8. RB Jonathon Taylor is having a breakout season with 1,348 rushing yards and 18 total TD's. Taylor has 10 runs of 20+ yards along with 5 more in the passing game. The Patriots have won games throwing 41 times as well as winning throwing the ball 3 times. The Colts have scored 30+ points in 7 of its last 8 games, and quietly have the 3rd best offense in the league, and the defense is top 5 as well in points allowed. The Patriots have looked impressive, so why is Indianapolis favored here? The reason is they are playing at home and have the tools to win this game. Carson Wentz has 22 TDs and just 5 INT's on the season. One question for New England, is Mac Jones healthy? Last week the weather called for the running game, but he has an injured finger, was that part of it? I think Indianapolis knows this is a huge statement game, and they deliver the win with an impressive performance. Make the play on Indianapolis.

What a remarkable turnaround for Utah St. They finished 1-5 a year ago with all 5 losses by 19 or more points. This year they enter their Bowl Game at 10-3, and this will be a motivated group. They closed out by winning the MWC Championship game, and a team winning their Conference Championship has gone 78-53-5 ATS in their Bowl game. Oregon St. has been all over the place this season. They were good enough to beat Utah, and bad enough to lose to Colorado. The Aggies on the other hand over its last 6 games went 3-0 ATS as a dog winning them all out-right by a combined total of 66 points! Experience matters in Bowl games, and head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of how many Bowl games he has coached vs the opposing coach matters. Those with more bowl games coached are 122-87-1 ATS, and Utah St. holds a +6 in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

Liberty struggled down the stretch after starting the season 7-2. The Flames lost their last 3 games and the issues were ball control as the Flames in their final 3 games lost the turnover battle 11-0! Eastern Michigan wasn't much better as the Eagles posted a 1-2 record in their final 3 contests, with the win coming by 1 point. Eastern Michigan was out-gained by 49 yards per game on the season and Liberty out-gained a better schedule of opponents by 113 yards, and have an elite dual threat QB in Malik Willis. Eastern Michigan was a longtime doormat but under Chris Creighton they have gone to 3 Bowls and while they are 0-3 SU they are 3-0 ATS and lost the 3 games by a combined 10 points. Motivation is key in Bowl games, and I think Liberty with Willis and a host of others returning had bigger bowls in mind, and EMU is not going to be an inspiring opponents for them. Willis did not have nearly the year he had last year as his numbers are down everywhere. One big issue for this Liberty team has been the offensive line which gave up 51 sacks on the season. Eastern Michigan always looks like they are on the bad side of a mismatch, but Chris Creighton is the master of getting more out of less. Consider he is 30-9-1 ATS as a dog at EMU. He is also 14-0 ATS as a rod dog coming off a loss! Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

I'm going to start this one out with somewhat of a trick question. Who was the best team in the Pac-12 this season? It was BYU. The Cougars finished 5-0 against Pac-12 teams this season, and also played Virginia, Baylor, Boise St., and Utah St. That is one tough schedule with a team that finished 10-2 and #12 in the Bowl Championship Series rankings. Despite all that bettors are lining up on UAB to the tune of 80% of bets. The Cougars bested those opponents by 72 total yards per game at 1.4 yards per play. UAB had a nice season finishing at 8-4. One interesting side note. BYU was favored by -8.5 vs USC in its last game, and now less on a neutral field to UAB? UAB was out-scored by 3 points a game this season vs a team playing in a bowl. One of the issues for UAB this season is they rank 3rd in the nation in penalty yards at 91 per game and can ill afford those type of mistakes here vs an elite opponent. The Cougars fit the bowl situation that favors a coach that has coached more bowl games then the opposing coach which is now 122-87-1 ATS. Make the play on BYU.

The story line for this game is obvious. UTEP is a program that won 5 games the last 4 years, and here they are at 7-5 and in a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and last won a bowl game over 50 years ago. Do you think this is going to be a motivated team? Fresno St. lost their coach, and he will be replaced by an interim, but interim bowl coaches are not a factor of the outcome as they are around 50/50 over the years. The issue of the day is who will start at QB for Fresno St.? QB Jake Haener originally opted out and into the transfer portal, but decided to withdraw. Interim head coach Lee Marks will not disclose which of 3 potential starting QBs will actually start the game. My best guess is they all play, or at least 2 of them play. I like the play on UTEP here, because if Haener plays I like UTEP some, but if he doesn't I like UTEP a lot. I am going to play UTEP here. If Haener doesn't play, or if the QB duties are split the value of the play just increases. The more motivated team here in either case is UTEP. It is a huge game for them. Make the play on UTEP.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

The Thursday Night NFL game has serious playoff implications. The Chiefs come in at 9-4, and the Chargers are 8-5. The Chargers offense has been in the driver's seat for most of the season, but at times it has been inconsistent. The big area of concern for the Chargers has been defense. The Charger defense has allowed 20 points or more in 9 straight games, and much more in many of them. The Chiefs have it rolling again, and Coach Andy Reid spent the bye week working on facing a cover-2 defense that they have seen and struggled against much of the season. They put up 48 vs Vegas last week. The Chiefs defense has been immense allowing just 65 total points in their last 6 games at 10.8ppg, and none of their last 3 opponents has topped 9. The Chiefs defense has on average generated 3 turnovers a game for the last 5 games, while the offense has tightened up their early season turnover problem. I like Kansas City in this one.

The Niners lost to Seattle last week 30-23. The good sign for this team is they have out-gained each of their last 4 opponents on the season. The defense has also started to force some turnovers over the 4 games as well with 9. QB Joe Burrow may have some issues as he is probable with a finger injury. Each of these teams has a very long injury report, but the impacts will be felt more by Cincinnati, and even more if Burrow is less than 100%. The Bengals have out-gained opponents by just 7 yards on the season, and San Francisco by 46. That margin is made more significant by the fact that San Francisco has played a much tougher schedule of opponents. This game also fits a situation on the Niners that has been 87-42 ATS. Make the play on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions finally broke through for their first win of the season. The Lions were pounded early in the season but their last 4 games vs Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh have resulted in a 1-2-1 record and 4-0 ATS. The Lions in those games have been out-scored by just 3 total points. While offense has been mostly bad the defense has allowed 18ppg,right around where Denver averages. This line came out at +7.5 and now +10.5 is showing up. It has been bet into value for the dog, as many feel this will be a letdown spot for the Lions. When you go and play to an 0-9-1 record, and remain competitive, as they have I don't see a letdown I see a team that thinks they can compete and even win. Denver beat Dallas 30-16 after getting whipped by Philadelphia 30-13. Last week they managed 9 points vs the Chiefs. I don't see them rising up to the "A" game vs the lowly Lions and what looks to be a low scoring game, taking double-digits is pretty big. Make the play on Detroit.

Carolina is 5-7 on the season, and 3 games into the return of Cam Newton. While Newton seemed to give the Panthers a lift in his first game back, his numbers are really pretty poor. Newton has gone from a QB that delivered 7 yards per passing attempt in his career to 5.6, and has just 3 TD's and 2 INT's to this point, with a well below average QB rating. The Panther offense has gotten worse with each game. Christian McCaffrey has often been injured in his brief career, but he is now out for the season, and the weapons aren't there anymore. Atlanta is just 1-3 in its last 4 but the losses were to Tampa Bay, Dallas, and New England. Carolina isn't any of those teams. The Falcons also have revenge for a 19-13 loss to Carolina earlier this season. Make the play on Atlanta.

This has suddenly become a huge game for both teams. New England has transformed from a mediocre team into an elite one with the maturation of Mac Jones and overall better play on both sides of the ball. New England has won and covered 6 straight and in the NFL that is a difficult pace for any team to maintain. While they have not consistently shown it this year, The Bills have statistically dominated opponents. I really think the best of what this team has to offer, at home, on a Monday Night, is much more than the Pats have. A lot of what the Pats have done revolves around turnovers, which in the NFL, is highly random. New England has forced 19 turnovers in its last 7 games or almost 3 per contest which is unsustainable. Moreover, Buffalo has 11 turnovers in their last 4 games, almost 3 per contest. This is also unsustainable. Buffalo is +114 yards per game from the line of scrimmage, and +1.4 yards per play better than their opponents. The Pats +38 and +0.6. The Bills by far have been the better team at the line of scrimmage. Almost all positive and negative turnover situations favor the team that has been very negative and has been poor for the team that has been very positive, so that is not an asset for New England here, or a liability for Buffalo, it is the opposite. Make the play on Buffalo.

Time is running out on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This team has always been characterized by strong defense but the last 2 games saw them give up 41 points in each of them. You have to go back all the way to 1989 for the last time the Steelers defense gave up 40+ in 2 straight games. Everyone is saying what is wrong with Baltimore? That seems like a puzzling question regarding a team that is 8-3 and has the best record in the AFC. The Ravens are still out-gaining their opponents on the season, and just seem to have a nose for winning, even when they are not playing well. Pittsburgh is getting crushed at the line of scrimmage. Big Ben is passing for a career low of 6.6 yards per attempt, and it is starting to look like he is finished. I think the Ravens are going to come after him, and it likely won't be pretty. Make the play on Baltimore.

Don't look now but the Taylor Heinicke led Washington Football Team once 2-6 has won 3 straight games, and is back in the playoff picture. What has gone unnoticed is Washington has out-gained each of its last 5 opponents. Vegas finally got a much needed win last week after 3 straight losses. They out-lasted Dallas 36-33 on Thanksgiving. There is a gaping hole on defense however, as the Raiders have allowed 106 total points in their last 3 games. The offense at the same time has produced 16 or fewer points in 3 of its last 4. The Vegas offense is going to be challenged by a suddenly developing Washington defense. Vegas could also be caught looking ahead and take this NFC opponent lightly, especially after getting a win under their belt. Raiders have Kansas City next week, a big division rivalry game. Make the play on Washington.

There are now 9 teams in the AFC that have either 4 or 5 losses. A pair of those teams will take the field in Cincinnati, with the 7-4 Bengals hosting the 6-5 Chargers. The Bengals have suddenly become a running team carrying the ball 38 times in each of the last 2 weeks. They have success piling up 357 yards on the ground. They have won the 2 games by 50 points. That may be more predictive against them as for them. An NFL team that has won their last 2 games by a combined 50 points is 90-111-3 ATS in their next game covering just 44.8% of the time. The Chargers have not been able to put any kind of a winning streak together this season. Statistically they have out-played the Bengals on the season with a considerably stronger strength of schedule. There is an old saying in sports gambling that says, `The team in need, is the team indeed.` The Chargers can ill afford a loss, and they are the better team from the line of scrimmage with a favorable situations as well. Make the play on the LA Chargers.

This is the only covid-19 postponed game all season as USC will take on California to close out the Pac-12 regular season. This has been a brutal season for USC. This team has really struggled to find its way back into the national limelight. USC has moved the ball fairly well but the defense has been really bad. That is where Cal has the edge in this game, as they have great numbers when QB Chase Garbers lines up under center. USC's offense has not been as good without the best offensive player in the conference WR Drake London. The USC offense is also not quite as good with Jaxson Dart at QB, so a couple missing ingredients extends the Cal advantage in this game. USC is also likely to be without top RB Keaontay Ingram. Suddenly, an above average USC offense is below average. I'm not sure if it is the name on the jersey that says USC that has held this line down, but this line is off significantly and I will make the play on Cal.

Iowa wasn't supposed to be here, but things broke right for them, and here they are. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 on the season, and they did it entirely on defense. Iowa may be the first 10-2 P5 conference team to ever finish 10-2 while being out-gained by opponents by 17 yards per game. Their very good defense along with a +13 turnover advantage on the season is what got them here. The problem here is the Michigan offense is as good as the Iowa defense, and when you turn that around, the Iowa offense isn't even nearly on the same level as the Michigan defense. Michigan has out-gained their opponents by 132 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. That is a huge advantage. Make the play on Michigan.

I don't think too many had Wake Forest vs Pitt for the ACC Championship Game back at the beginning of the season. They both enter the game at 10-2. These teams are both very similar on offense. They don't run the ball particularly well, but they have tremendous passing attacks. If you look at both offenses they are pretty much dead even. The difference comes on defense. Wake Forest is out-gaining opponents 484-428 or by 56 yards a game and Pitt 513-353 or by 160 yards per game. Wake gave up 543 yards to Clemson, and 4 of their last 6 opponents went for 42 or more, so the defense if anything may even be regressing. Looking at the 5 common opponents this season Wake went 3-2 and Pitt 5-0. The difference was all defense, as both scored similar points but Wake gave up 9 more points per game. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

Everyone seems to want Cincinnati to stumble. They have passed every test put in front of them this season. The offense and defense are both elite. They will take on an 11-1 Houston team. But in NASA parlance, "Houston, We have a problem." That problem is while the Cougars finished the season 11-1 they had 0 wins vs the top 50! I'm not saying they are not a good team, they are, but they have not faced a team this year that should have beaten them, and what they are going to see on the field this week is completely different. Many think the pressure will be on Cincinnati, but for that matter it has been on them all season. They stepped up every time they had to. I think you are going to see the best of this team on Saturday. They have a chance to make history, and they aren't going leave a bit of energy off the field. They know style points are important, so a back door cover here is not a likely scenario. I see a 2 TD+ win here for the Bearcats. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is a lot on the line here for both teams. Georgia ran the regular season table finishing 12-0, while Alabama had 1 loss at 11-1. Additionally, Alabama played a lot of close games and were lucky to get out of the Iron Bowl game vs Auburn with a win. This is the best chance Georgia has had to beat Alabama. It is also their best chance for a National Championship as well. Win or lose Georgia will be in the playoffs, for Alabama it is a must win. I think both of these offenses are elite, and the big difference here is the Georgia defense allowed fewer than 7 points a game on the season, and no team produced better than 17 against them. (Last team to allow 17 or fewer points to every team was 1979 Texas). Alabama is almost always the team with the best defense, and that simply is not the case this year for the Tide. The defense is good, but it is not on the level the Georgia defense is and that should be the difference in this game. Bryce Young will be under more pressure in this game than he has felt all season. Alabama has beaten Georgia 6 straight times. I think this is going to be the end of that. Make the play on Georgia.

I think Russell Wilson might have returned to the field too soon, but he should be getting healthy and he has a very favorable match up in this game. The Seahawks 13 total points scored in their last game has left them entirely under-valued. A match up against Taylor Heincke as a 1 point favorite is too hard to pass up. Pete Carroll Seattle teams off 2 straight losses are 15-2 ATS, and love the match up in this one. (6-0 ATS vs a team under .5000. Good opportunity in this one, which also has a Monday Night dog situation attched to it that is 48-17 ATS. Make the play on Seattle.

The Baltimore Ravens caught a lot of bettors off-guard last week when Lamar Jackson was a late scratch due to illness. He is listed as questionable as of right now, but I'm pretty sure he will play. The Ravens offense is simply on another level when they play at home. The last 2 seasons they have averaged just shy of 30ppg here. The Cleveland offense has had success running the ball, but it is a passing league, and the Browns offense has sputtered on multiple occasions generating 17 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games. They are going to have to do a lot better than that to stay in the game vs a Raven's team that has shown little problems scoring on anyone at home. Make the play on Baltimore.

It is never easy going into Green Bay in late November, or any time for that matter. The Rams have suddenly lost 2 straight games and have failed to cover their last 4. This all boils down to Matthew Stafford vs Aaron Rodgers. The fact is Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury that apparently got worse last week, but he will play. Stafford plain and simple is having a better year than Rodgers, and I trust the Rams defense a lot more than the defense of Green Bay which was exposed last week by Kirk Cousins. The Packers offense is producing 7.5 points less than a year ago, and the margin for error has slipped. The numbers say the Rams are the better team from the line of scrimmage. Make the play on the LA Rams.

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

There is a big log jam of potential playoff teams in the AFC. There are currently an amazing 9 teams that have either 4 or 5 losses. The Indianapolis Colts are one of them at 6-5. The Colts may not be as good as the 6-5 record as they are slightly negative from the line of scrimmage. Their 6 wins are games which saw them turn the opponent over 16 times, and in those games they have had a turnover margin of better than 2 per contest. The 6 wins have also come to teams that have a collective record of 22-40. Five of those teams have a combined record of 15-36. Tampa Bay is not one of them. The Colt losses have seen the opponent average 29ppg, and Tampa Bay is that team. Turnovers are in a large part random, and it would not be expected to see the Colts benefit from better than a 2 turnover advantage like they have. A team with a 2 or more turnover margin wins 87.2% of the time which is the reason the Colts are even 6-5. Tampa Bay is the better team and takes care of the ball a lot better than the 6 teams the Colts have beaten. Make the play on Tampa Bay.

Anyone that watched Atlanta lose 25-0 to New England last Thursday Night will have a hard time taking them this week. Looking back at the prior week vs Dallas, they managed just 3 points. That may be better stated by saying unless they are playing Jacksonville. The Jags have averaged just 10.8ppg in their last 4. I like Matt Ryan vs the rookie Trevor Lawrence who is suffering a lot of growing pains. Since the start of the 2015 season a team coming off a shutout has gone 24-7-2 ATS in their next game. I also think the Falcons have the match up edges here as well. Lawrence hasn't thrown a TD pass in 3 games. Make the play on Atlanta.

This game is interesting because Carolina and Miami are two of the most frequent blitzing defenses in the NFL. Miami started the season 1-7 but the Dolphins have come to life with 3 straight wins and covers and the defense has lead the way. The Dolphins are allowing 12ppg in their last 3, all wins. The Cam Newton hype came to an end when the Panthers lost to Washington as a favorite. Newton came off the bench 2 games back and scored a TD and screamed, "I'm back," Maybe that is not such a good thing as the Panthers are now 0-9 in Newtons last 9 starts. Make the play on Miami.

The New England Patriots have been the best team in the NFL over the last 5 weeks. The Pats are 5-0 winning by 25 points per game. Rookie QB Mac Jones has led the offense to 35 points per game. The Pats are playing at an unsustainable pace after an ugly 2-4 start to the season. Tennessee played their worst game of the season losing to Houston as a double-digit favorite, and teams off a double digit favorite loss in the NFL are 79-60-5 ATS in their next game. The Pats have won their last 2 by 25 points or more and NFL teams doing so are 28-47-1 ATS in their next game including 9-24 ATS vs a team better than .600. A closer look shows New England has beaten 7 teams with a combined record of 27-45. Make the play on Tennessee.

I think there is a lot of hidden value in this one. UCLA demolished their rival USC and put up 62 points and 609 yards of offense. Cal has actually been the better team in yards per play differential this season. The other point of value is the Cal loss to lowly Arizona 10-3. Cal had over 24 players and coaches out with covid-19, including their QB. That is the biggest impact that covid has had in a college football game all season. They came back and crushed Stanford last week. The Cal defense is finally living up to expectations allowing 15.5ppg in its last 6 and has not failed to cover a game since October the 2nd. I like the points here. Cal can make it to a Bowl with 2 wins in their last 2 games. Full effort should be the case here, and not so much for UCLA. Make the play on California.

This is not only a huge rivalry game, but with both teams at 10-1 and still some hope of making the playoffs it will be an intense battle. This is usually an offensive showcase, but the Oklahoma Sooners offense is not anything like it has been the past few years. They have managed 14 points vs Baylor and 28 vs Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. has one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys have held opponents to 13 fewer points than they average on the season, and no team has scored more than 24 points against them all season. Oklahoma has a huge gap between home and road offensively. The Sooners have put up 41ppg at home but just 21.5ppg on the road. While it has been typical over the past few years that in pretty much every game the Sooner offense is the best unit on the field. That won't be the case here it will be the Oklahoma St. defense. The Sooners are out-gaining opponents by just 0.2 yards per play on the road. Coach Gundy gets his teams ready to play in a favorite role where they are 82-54 ATS. Oklahoma St. is currently 7th in the playoff standings. Baylor is #8. A win here and a win in the B-12 Championship game over Baylor would leave Oklahoma St. 3 points from an unbeaten season, and at 12-1 they are going to be in the hunt. I think they are the better team, with a lot to play for, and have always played well at home. My NCAAF GOM IS ON OKLAHOMA ST.

The fate of the Old Dominion team changed when they finally had seen enough of QB D.J. Mack, and replaced him with Hayden Wolff. Old Dominion began the season at 0-5 against FBS teams, and they have since gone 4-0 and have a lot of feel good and momentum. A win here will get them bowl eligible. The Monarchs have also covered 4 straight. Old Dominion will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country. Charlotte allows 7.1 yards per play and the Old Dominion defense is pretty good. This game looks like at least a comfortable 2 TD win, and probably more. Make the play on Old Dominion.

I`m not sure it was supposed to end this way but David Cutliffe has gone full circle at Duke. He inherited perhaps the worst P5 program in the country, and made the program viable. Duke went from doormat to a team that won 7 or more games in 5 of 6 years, but he is leaving right where he started off. Duke has a total of 5 wins the last 2 years and over their last they have been outscored 51-15 on average per game. Miami, Fla. has lost 3 of their last 7 games by a combined total of 8 points. That is how close they are to being 7-0. Miami has scored 28 points or more in all 7, and against a Duke team that allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt, the Hurricanes are going to get a lot more. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

This is a big game for both teams as the winner will become bowl eligible. While both teams are 5-6 there is a big difference between the teams. Simply put, Maryland is the much better team. The 6 Maryland losses came against the top 6 Big-10 teams. They have played a very difficult schedule. Maryland is 5-0 vs a team on Rutgers level by an average of 19ppg. Rutgers was beaten by 6 Big-10 teams by an average final score of 34-8. Maryland has not only played a more aggressive schedule, they have out-gained opponents from the line of scrimmage by a lot more than Rutgers. Make the play on Maryland.

The season did not go quite as planed for North Carolina. They have a very good QB in Sam Howell, but the defense was not up to a high enough standard and they enter their finale at just 6-5. North Carolina has allowed 41.2ppg to their last 5 FBS opponents. The offense just can't overcome that week after week. The NC State defense may be the best they have faced all season. The Wolfpack allows just 4.8 yards per play and the pass defense is 1.2 yards per play better than the schedule of opponents they have faced this season. This game also fits a situation that is 101-64 ATS. Make the play on NC State,

This will be a tough spot for Arkansas to find its "A" game. The Razorbacks took Alabama to the wire last week and emptied the tank in doing so, especially emotionally. Arkansas has played a very difficult schedule and this game following the big one last week vs Alabama provides a good spot for Missouri to stay close. Missouri QB Connor Bazlak is not to bad and Arkansas will once again be without the services of Jalen Catalon who makes a huge difference in the Arkansas secondary.Missouri has been playing much better of late as the Tigers are 3-1 in their last 4 and has covered 3 straight. Think this is too many points. Make the play on Missouri.

Nebraska has had a very difficult season. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 but have not lost a game by more than 9 points all season.This will be the first time in NCAA Football history that a 3-8 team is favored over a 9-2 team. The previous 82 times this has occurred the 3-8 team was never better than a +7.5 point favorite. Nebraska took a blow with QB Adrien Martinez out for this game. Martinez is an experienced and very good QB, and he is also a top runner. The Nebraska offense is going to take a hit facing a very strong Iowa defense. There is also some hidden value here as the Nebraska special teams are brutal and Iowa has one of the best special teams in NCAA Football. Add it all up and Iowa is the choice here in this one.

The Buffalo Bills are still the best team from the line of scrimmage in the NFL. The issue of late has been turnovers, which have cost the Bills dearly. Buffalo has turned the ball over 9 times in their last 3 games, and that doesn't last forever, it tends to even out. The Saints have been great as a dog under Sean Payton but that didn't work out last week in a 40-29 loss. The Saints have bigger issues as the injuries are mounting, and it looks like several key offensive players will be missing this week, or at best a few may be playing through some injuries. It is time for the Bills to show the nation how good they are, as they are statistically the best team and facing a Saints team with a lot of injuries coming off a short week, which will challenge their depth. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Dallas Cowboys are just a game behind the Arizona Cardinals for the top seed in the NFC. They know they need to win to keep pace. They should have a strong chance in this one. It is very difficult for a team to travel for a Thursday game after playing on Sunday. Thursday home favorites are 97-69-5 ATS covering 58.4% of all games. That goes to 50-30-2 ATS when they are favored by 6 or more points. Make the play on Dallas.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

The Saints are suddenly just a game behind the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South. They have a great match up in this one vs the Eagles. The Eagles are the top running team in the NFL, but that plays into the hands of the New Orleans defense which ranks #2 in the NFL. The Saints have allowed the fewest points in the NFC (178). If the Saints succeed in turning the Philadelphia offense into a passing team it looks a lot different. Not many teams are having success on the ground so I expect Philly to have to throw more, and while the running game has kept the turnovers low, that might change here. Alvin Kamara from all reports looks like a go this week. Sean Payton has gotten remarkable results from his team as an under dog over the years, as his teams are 49-21-2 ATS as a dog and lately that is 13-1-1 ATS, and 4-0 ATS this season. His New Orleans team is also 28-9 ATS off a loss of 6 points or fewer, and 50-18 ATS vs a team that averages 24 or more points per game. Make the play on New Orleans.