The New England Patriots have lost 4 straight games at home. They certainly won't be taking the Jets lightly, as they are in dire need of a win. It is rare for a rookie QB to beat a Bill Belichick team as he owns a 23-6 SU record against them. The Jets are averaging just 13.4 points per game and an even worse 7 points per game on the road. Zach Wilson has yet to figure things out and has thrown 9 INTs already through 5 games. He has a passer rating of 62.9. The Pats have lost games by 2 points, 3 points, and in overtime, so with just a little luck they could have a winning record. The Jets are being out-gained by 107 yards per game. The Pats have beaten the Jets 12 straight times. New England is 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games after allowing 30 or more points. Make the play on New England.

The Tennessee Titans got a big win over the Buffalo Bills at home on Monday Night. They spent a lot of mental,physical, and emotional energy in that game. They had a big run by Henry for a 75 yard TD, but other than that they were limited to 287 total yards, while yielding 417. Ryan Tannehill is having a tough season. He has just 6 TD passes, after throwing 32 a year ago, and the offense is relying on Henry far to much. They hav 26 players on the injury report, of which 18 are on the IR. That is hard to overcome especially off a big emotional win and a short week. Kansas City is just 3-3 and a lot of that points at all the turnovers. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 14 times, and Mahomes has thrown 8 picks already after throwing just 8 all of last year. He has been too good and this is just variance, and I would expect going forward he will clean those up. Despite all that the Chiefs are scoring more at 31.2 points per game, despite the fewer possessions and Mahomes is completing 69% of his passes a career high, so there is evidence the interceptions will calm down and when they do the Chiefs are going on a run. It begins in Tennessee. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season, and that one loss has influenced the stats in a very hidden way. The Packers played a stinker in their opener vs the Saints which resulted in a 38-3 loss. The Packers turned the ball over 3 times, and did nothing on both sides of the ball. Since then they are averaging 28.2ppg and allowing 16.6ppg or winning by an average margin of 11.5ppg. The defense is allowing just 314 yards per game, and the offense has seen a worst performance of 323 yards. The Packers have turned the ball over just 2 times in the 5 wins. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is 3-11 ATS in all games, and enters with a passer rating of 82.1. He has already thrown 6 INT's. The Packers are in their wheel house when playing at home where Aaron Rodgers is 25-3 SU and 19-9 ATS including 21-9 ATS as a home favorite of -5.5 to -12.5. He has 75 TD passes in those games to just 5 INT's. Washington has allowed 34.3ppg in their last 3 and will have trouble staying in this game. Make the play on Green Bay.

Louisville is 3-3 and while they have a powerful offense, the defense has given all of it back. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games but they have lost 2 of them. They are allowing 34.4ppg to FBS opponents. Boston College has lost 2 straight, but both the losses came against strong defensive teams, and they have averaged over 40 points per game in their 4 wins. Louisville has NC State and Clemson on deck, and their level of focus here may not be their best. Boston College lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their last 2 games. Louisville has yielded close to 500 yards a game in their 5 contests vs FBS opponents, and it is tough trusting a team in the favorite role that plays absolutely no defense. The back door is wide open here, at the least. Louisville has not relished this role as they are 10-21 ATS as a conference home favorite in their last 31 coming off a loss, and that becomes 1-10 ATS if their opponent is off 2 straight losses. Make the play on Boston College.

Hard to back a team that is 0-5 SU vs FBS teams which is the case for California. What makes it even more ironic is Cal has had a turnover advantage on the season. Colorado has had some bad games at 2-4, but one of their losses was 10-7 vs Texas A&M. I think that says they have a higher ceiling in this game. Colorado is allowing fewer than 20ppg so getting better than a TD here with the much better defense in the game is an attractive proposition. Cal has no home field advantage as they are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite failing to cover by nearly 13ppg. Cal averages just 23ppg so getting enough here with a below average offense is not an easy task. Colorado has gone 20-10 ATS as a dog under coach Karl Dorrell. Make the play on Colorado.

This game in a lot of ways is important to both teams. Wake Forest returned 20 starters, and have a dynamic QB, and come into this game 6-0. The triple option is tough for a lot of teams, but when a team has 2 weeks to prepare for it, often they do a better job. Wake can move to 7-0 with Duke next week, and a pair of wins will have the Demon Deacons at 8-0 and heading to North Carolina for a huge game. Army started 4-0 but have lost consecutive games to Ball St., and Wisconsin. Their game last week was very physical, and it may show in this game. This is a highly motivated spot for Wake to remain unbeaten, and they have beaten Army 9 of the last 11 meetings. Army has managed just 16.5ppg against Wake, so they have done a very solid job with the option, with lesser teams. I think Wake is the odds on favorite to win the ACC right now. Army has 4 wins all coming vs bad teams that have combined to go 7-19. I like Wake Forest in this one.

Northwestern had a big season a year ago, but this is not yet the type of program that can lose a lot of quality players and reload. Northwestern returned as one of the least experienced teams in the country, with just 4 starters on both sides of the ball. The best team the Wildcats have seen this season is Nebraska who beat them 56-7. Michigan is 6-0 and is a top contender for making the playoffs. The Wolverines have one of the top offenses in NCAA Football, and the defense is also rock solid. I think Michigan is going to run away with this one and cover rather easily. Make the play on Michigan.

Things couldn't be going better for the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are ranked #2 in the country and have scored 50+ points in 2 straight games. The Navy is just the opposite as things could hardly get worse. This game looks like a complete blowout, but if history has anything to say about it, then these numbers will get your attention. Anytime a military team is getting 20 or more points they are hard to cover against. The Army, Navy, and Air Force all run the triple-option which consumes clock. It makes it hard to take down big numbers. A military team getting 20 or more have logged an 81-37-4 ATS mark. That is long term, and powerful. Make the play on Navy.

The Arizona Cardinals are the only unbeaten team in the NFL at 5-0. Everything has gone well for the Cardinals to this point.The Cleveland Browns are 3-2 and most will see the 2 big offenses they played destroyed their defense. The fact is they out-gained both those teams, and gave up late leads or they could also be looking at 5-0. The Browns are out-gaining their opponents by 119 yards per game and have a lethal running game. That running game is going to matter this week as game time winds are projected to gust upward of 20 MPH. That is going to have some impact on the passing game here, and the Browns have an advantage in this type of game. The Brown's have the better team from the line of scrimmage and have gone for 150+ yards on the ground in every game, and in a situation where the ground game matters more than usual, and the fact that the Browns are off a loss, and playing an unbeaten team at home, the best of what they have to offer will be on display here. Make the play on Cleveland, my game of the month.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

The Green Bay Packers season has been somewhat strange. They were dominated by New Orleans in week 1, but have since gone out and won 4 straight. The Packers have been out-scored on the season by their opponents, and overall they are just an average team from the line of scrimmage. They are ultra dependent on Davonte Adams who generated over 60% of the receiving yards last week vs the Bengals as well as 50% of the first downs. The Bears offense has been quite challenging, but they may be catching Green By at the right time. The Packers are off a road overtime win in Cincinnati, and take to the road again. The Packers are pretty banged up defensively, and they can't rely on Davonte Adams for everything they do offensively especially against a strong Bear defense. Too many points, make the play on Chicago.

The Cincinnati Bengals missed so many opportunities to beat the Green Bay Packers last week and move to 4-1. They head to Detroit off that loss and should have their focus on after a tough loss. The Lions are 0-5 on the season and should be. The Lion's scoring margin is -8 points per game on the season. Joe Burrow is making a jump in Cincinnati as he is completing 71.7% of his passes at 8.8 yards per attempt. The Lions are having injury issues at WR and it will hamper an already poor Lion's offense. I think the match up here for Cincinnati is quite favorable, and I also believe we have some line value here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

Back to London we go as the Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. It looks like a free play for the Dolphins as the Jag's are now 0-5 on the season, as well as 1-20 since the start of last season. Those numbers are certainly influencing the line here. The Jags however are the better team from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. There is a penalty being paid here for taking Mimi, as who wants a 1-20 team getting just a FG? This line is considerably off and I actually think it should be Jacksonville -3 here. I'm taking Jacksonville in this one.

The UTEP Miners are off to a sizzling 5-1 start to the season. While that sounds like a bad program turning the corner, I see a whole different picture. This team has played a schedule that ranks far below the 130 FBS teams there are, I would put them at 175 or so considering FCS teams. The 5 wins have come against Bethune Cookman, New Mexico St., New Mexico, Southern Miss, and Old Dominion. Those 5 teams are a combined -17 vs FBS teams, and the lone win has occurred because 2 of the teams played each other. UTEP despite what I consider the weakest schedule in the country, has played even at the line of scrimmage. Louisiana Tech has a 1 point loss at Miss St., a 2 point loss vs SMU, and a 7 point loss at NC State. They generated 440 yards of offense per game in those 3 losses to upper tier teams. The schedule differential is vast in this one, and it lends itself to a line that is clearly not enough. The 5 UTEP wins are vs an average opponent that ranks at the bottom of the FBS. I like Louisiana Tech in this one.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-0 start, but this team doesn't look nearly as explosive as recent editions. For the first time in many years Oklahoma has an average passing game that generates 7.9 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams allowing 8.0 to an average team. The Sooners are better suited for running the ball. TCU is not the defensive team they have trended as for many years. This is a team that has allowed 31 or more points in 4 straight games, and the Sooners should have no trouble getting to 30 here. TCU however has also scored 34 points or more in its last 4 games, so I think they have enough offense to stay inside a rather lofty number here. Make the play on TCU.

The sense of urgency has become real for Alabama after a surprise loss to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide knows another loss puts any playoff opportunity in immediate jeopardy, and Nick Saban teams are now 16-2 SU following a loss. The Tide has won by an average of 25 points per game in its last 5 off a loss, so expect a true sense of urgency in this one. Saban has certainly figured out the Mike Leach offense, as they buried Miss St. last year 41-0. It was the only time a Mike Leach team has ever been shutout. Alabama off a loss has been downgraded, while Miss St. winning last week gave them an upgrade. Alabama was a -19 point favorite vs A&M and Miss St. was +7. Add those two games together and the difference is 26 points. That shows a one week bias, and the adjustment is absurd. Alabama beat A&M at the line of scrimmage 522-379. That translates into a double-digit win. Over the last 5 seasons a home dog of 10.5 to 21 points is 14-42 ATS off a win vs a conference rival and playing a conference rival. Whatever this Alabama team has in its arsenal this season will be on display Saturday. Make the play on Alabama.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off previously unbeaten Alabama last week who was also the #1 team in the nation. That sets up a huge letdown spot for the Aggies here, who are 4-2 and not blowing teams out. The Aggies have faced 4 FBS teams and have been out-scored by them 91=83. They have 2 wins both by 3 points. Missouri is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, so they are not drawing much attention, but they certainly provide value here. The Tigers are now 0-9 ATS going back to last year, and if there is one of those games that "stinks" this week, this is the one as the Tigers are allowing 38 points and 500 yards on the season. Not a good sign when a team beats a Saban coached team as a dog and turns around to be a favorite in their next game as they are 6-9 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they scored 35 points or more in that win. This one looks ugly. Make the play on Missouri.

The winner of this game will move to 4-1 on the season, so it is certainly a big game for both teams. The Chargers flexed their muscles Monday Night and dominated Las Vegas on both sides of the line of scrimmage in an easy 28-14 win. There are still concerns here. The Chargers took one gift wrapped from the Chiefs 30-24. The Chiefs turned the ball over 4 times but still managed 437 yards, and lost by just 6. Dallas went over 400 yards as well, and Cleveland has a lot of offensive weapons. The Browns have improved greatly on defense and has held its last 2 opponents to 6 and 7 points. It has enabled them to just pound the rock. The Chargers may be 3-1 but they are losing the line of scrimmage and the Cleveland running game will take charge of a run-stop unit that is among the worst in the league. The records are the same, but Cleveland is considerably better, and has the match up edges.Make the play on Cleveland.

The Tennessee Titans are 2-2 and that is pretty much where they belong. The same can be said for Jacksonville at 0-4 off a 1-15 season a year ago. Trevor Lawrence has not been good, in fact he has been awful. He enters with 5 TDs and 7 INTs. That equates to a passer rating of 66.1. His 6.1 passing yards per attempt is really poor. While the offense has been awful, the pass defense has been horrific allowing 9.4 yards per attempt. This is where Ryan Tannehill comes into play. Tannehill has not been the same this season, and this might be just what the doctor ordered. He is certainly capable and playing the worst secondary in the NFL might just get him back on track. Jacksonville has given up at least 23 points every game and has averaged just 18.5. Make the play on Tennessee.

Jalen Hurts makes a difference in the Philadelphia offense. His ability to scramble since he took over duties as the Eagles starting QB in week 14 last year shows him ranked 11th in rushing yards in the league. Hurts has a penchant for throwing screen passes, and with Shaq Thompson out for the Panthers, there should be a lot of success to be had in exploiting that area. Sam Darnold has played well this season for Carolina, but the Eagles pass defense, and ability to get pressure, is likely going to make Darnold's numbers look more like they did with the Jets, and success will be at a premium.With RB Christian McCaffrey dealing with a hamstring issue, I expect that if he plays he won't be as effective as usual.  This is typically not a good situation for any team as 3-1 teams that lost their first game of the season in their last game cover just 38.5% of the time in their next game. Also, any team surrendering 40 or more points in 2 straight weeks have gone 17-7 ATS when facing a winning team. Make the play on Philadelphia.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

The Michigan Wolverines are finally achieving what the roster looks like this year. The Wolverines are clicking in all facets of the game, with an offense that is elite, and a defense that is elite. Add to that the fact that they have turned the ball over just 1 time all season, and have the 2nd best special teams in the country, and they get my #4 ranking. Nebraska has already lost 3 times to teams far below Michigan. The stats show an average of 600 yards a game vs Fordham, Northwestern, and Buffalo, which skews realistic numbers. Nebraska is also #128 in special teams and Michigan excels in that area, offering some hidden value. Michigan has the edge here on all levels, and I will make the play on Michigan.

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a terrific 4-0 start to the season. They almost lost for the first time last time on the field when they needed to rally their way to a 24-22 win. The Cowboy's offense is below average in both the running and passing game, and it is likely they fare worse in this one because the Air Force runs the ball almost all the time, and will limit the number of plays in this game with a moving clock. Wyoming's best attribute is defending the pass, which unfortunately for them is not going to come into play very often here. Air Force has been running the ball for years out of the triple-option, and may have their best running game ever. The Falcons have rushed for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. When a team is playing at home and has rushed for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games they are 83-62-2 ATS, with better subsets. I think Wyoming is a "false" 4-0, and they will be exposed in this one in a big way. Make the play on Air Force.

I am buying in on the hype around the Beavers. They will take to the Pac-12 road to take on 2-3 Washington St. The beavers are 4-1 and have won and covered 4 straight, and own big wins vs Washington, and USC. Washington St. has little to show on offense as the Cougars are averaging 17.8 points per game vs FBS competition and have turned the ball over 9 times in its last 3 games. Oregon St. has a well above average offense that steadily improves each week, and the defense is now a tick above average. This Oregon St. team is a player in the Pac-12, and a win at Washington St. will continue building the resume. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Bowling Green Falcons may be the biggest surprise of the year so far. They are now the only perfect ATS team in the country at 5-0. The bandwagon is getting full as bettors flock toward a 5-0 ATS team and has now raised the bar of expectations. This game opened at Bowling Green -12 and is now as high as -15. The Falcons were a pick-'em against Murray St. at home just 3 weeks ago, and they are now over-valued. Think about it. The Falcons average fewer than 15 points a game vs their 4 FBS opponents and have topped out at 20 in the 4 games. Akron had lopsided games vs Auburn and Ohio St. that has their stats skewed some. Just can't play Bowling Green laying more than they average. Make the play on Akron.

The media hype has pretty much embraced the quick turnaround in Sparty, as Michigan St. is off to a 5-0 start to the season. I'm not on the bandwagon but the hype machine on Michigan St., along with the bubble-bursting at Rutgers who have lost 2 straight after a 3-0 start has the line here way out of balance. Both these teams are much improved from a year ago, but Rutgers played Michigan to a 1 score game at the Big House, and were destroyed by an Ohio St. team that is my #2 team in NCAA Football. Michigan St. came away with wins vs W. Kentucky, and Nebraska, despite being out-gained by both. These teams are a lot closer than the line, and Rutgers has a chance for an outright win here. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Seattle Seahawks had lost 2 straight before a much needed win this past Sunday against a banged up San Francisco, that played with a back up rookie QB the entire second half. It saved the Seattle season, but just for the moment. Now they will face an angry Rams team that was destroyed at home by Arizona. QB Matthew Stafford has found a home in LA as he has thrown for 11 TDs to just 2 INTs. He is also averaging an elite 9.1 yards per attempt. Seattle however hs a lot of problems. They have lost the battle at the line of scrimmage 3 straight weeks. Seattle has been out-gained by 422 total yards in its last 3 games, or 141 yards per game. The once proud and strong defense is now among the worst in the league vs the run and pass. There ae too many weapons and big play makers on both sides of the ball for the Rams her. Make the play on LA.

The slow start by the Kansas City Chiefs has these teams looking to take advantage. Vegas has opened 3-0 and Derek Carr has made a difference. Carr is throwing for over 400 yards a game and an elite 8.8 yards per pass attempt. The Chargers are off a huge win in Kansas City last week, and they may have trouble bringing the energy to take on an up and coming confident team in Vegas. The Chargers however were out-played by Kansas City, and lost at the line of scrimmage 437-352. The Chiefs uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times. Justin Hebert continues to play well but the Chargers are generating just 6 yards per play to a schedule of teams allowing 6.7. I think these teams are pretty close, but what Carr has done for the Vegas offense is making a big difference. Make the play on Vegas.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are at a crossroad, and it is early in the season. Seattle is 1-2 and in a strong NFC West, a 3rd straight loss and 1-3 record will be tough to recover from. It is rare that Wilson loses 3 straight games, and I think Seattle brings everything they have to this one. Seattle has a prolific offense but an oddity has occurred through 3 games. The Seattle opponents are getting off 73 plays per game and Seattle just 50. That is unsustainable, and supplies some hidden value for the visitor in this one. Wilson will be facing a San Francisco team that is without 2 CBs, and if Josh Norman can't go, that will make 3. Wilson is 15-4 SU in his last 19 vs San Francisco, and 14-5 ATS. I think Wilson is in line for a huge day in this one. Make the play on Seattle.

A huge game in LA as the 3-0 Rams host the upstart 3-0 Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have been a lot more shaky than the 3-0 record would indicate. The Cards made a 62 yard FG, and then Minnesota missed a chip shot for the win, and the Cards escaped. The Jags had them on the ropes leading in the 3rd quarter before Arizona put them away late. The Rams are utilizing Matthew Stafford in a perfect way. The Rams have an NFL leading 6 plays of 40 yards or better. I think Arizona is overrated and we will discover that this week. The Rams look like the best team in the league right now, and they can come away here 4-0 and that conversation will get louder. Make the play on LA.

Kirk Cousins has been opening some eyes this season. He has thrown 8 TD passes to 0 interceptions. While that will regress, his overall numbers are down compared to last year, and the Minnesota defense isn't what it once was. The Vikings are 1-2 and have out-gained opponents by 15 yards per game, but on a per play basis they are minus 1 yard per game. The Browns offense continues to shine, and now the defense has stepped up in class. The Browns allow just 249 yards a game. Baker Mayfield has just 2 TD passes on the season but he is averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt, and those numbers should be obtainable this week vs a weak Viking secondary. Cousins is going to be under duress with Miles Garrett dominating everyone, and he had 4.5 sacks last week alone. This is a significant mismatch. Make the play on Cleveland.

The New York Jets have been trying to find a QB for years. This year they went out and drafted Jach Wilson. Wilson has not shown to be the answer through 3 games as he has thrown 7 INT's and has been sacked 15 times. That's the bad news. The good news is first year head coaches off 3 straight losses and ATS losses are 89-51-5 ATS. (47-16-2 ATS if not a division game). Tennessee finally played well in a first half, as this team has notoriously gotten off to slow starts, and tend to rally in the 2nd half. There are concerns. Ryan Tannehill does not look the same. His numbers are considerably down across the board, and in 10 games vs the Jets he owns a 75.1 passer rating, and pretty ugly numbers across the board. In non-division games home dogs of +6 or more cover 54% all time, which is pretty significant. Turnovers and sacks don't continue on the pace the Jets have allowed them. The pace would be 40 turnovers and 85 sacks. You know those numbers are going to come down significantly. Titan's injury list is filling fast with some key players, and I think this one is closer than it looks. Make the play on the NY Jets.

LSU got a big win at Miss St. last week. Perhaps the biggest news is that Bo Nix may not be the starting QB for Auburn. Bo Nix was pulled, and he was seen sulking on the sidelines. The optics and problems at Auburn are under the spotlight. It very well may mean former LSU QB TJ Finley gets the start for Auburn. The LSU offensive line are going to be going all out and I think they already have the edge. The bigger reason is playing in Death Valley at night is a death sentence for opponents. Since 2005 LSU is 45-4 in home night games, and 102 thousand plus fans are very loud. I don't think this is a good spot for Auburn with QB issues. Make the play on LSU.

Oregon St. Coach Johnathon Smith has turned the Oregon ST. program around. The Beavers are off to a 3-1 start, and had a huge victory last week when they went to USC and won for the first time since 1960. They didn't just win, they went for over 500 yards and the final score was 45-27. This is a team with a solid defense and an elite offense which has generated 7.1 yards per play vs a schedule of teams that allow 5.6. Washington opened the season with a 13-7 loss to Montana as a 23 point favorite, and were taken apart by Michigan. They beat Cal last week in a very misleading game. Washington won 31-24 but were out-gained 457-326. Cal mad a lot of mistakes and turned the ball over 3 times.Oregon St. has lost 9 straight to Washington, by an average margin of 23 points per game. This is the season for Oregon St. to exercise some demons, and you know they are not only good, they are confident, and have the home crowd this time around. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 4-0 start and the offense has not taken off yet. Oklahoma has been held to 16 and 23 points the last 2 games, typically a recipe for losses with this team. The good news is the defense has allowed 39 total points in their last 3 contests. The Sooners have been ordinary on offense thus far, but that will change. Kansas St. is in off a 31-20 loss to Oklahoma St. They will once again be without QB Skylar Thompson. Without Thompson the Wildcats have turned to their running game, but that has been the best part of this Sooner team thus far, defending the run. Oklahoma allows 2.4 yards per carry to a schedule of teams generating 3.6 yards per carry. Think this game is a mismatch and will make the play on Oklahoma.

The Bowling Green Falcons are 2-2 which looks a lot better than what we have seen from this team in recent years. They beat Minnesota last week as a 30 point under dog. Letdown? I'm not sure, but my take is there doesn't have to be. Bowling Green gained 192 yards in that game, but Minnesota turned the ball over 3 times. It hasn't been good for a team coming off a straight up win as a dog of 30 or more points as they are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their next game. Kent St. is just 1-3 but the losses are to Texas A&M, Maryland, and Iowa. They have been on average a 17 point dog in those 3 games. Kent St. has a very good offense, and strong running game, and their stats have been dwarfed by the level of competition they have faced this season. Make the play on Kent St.

The Michigan Wolverines are 4-0 and have really been dominating opponents. The Wolverines have out-gained opponents by 155 yards per game and out-scored them on average 40-12. They look the part of a playoff team through 4 games. There is a caveat. Michigan beat 3 cupcakes and a decent team in Rutgers all at home. Rutgers is improved but still not a high level team. The Rutgers defense, on the road held the Michigan offense to 112 rushing yards. This after Michigan gained over 1000 yards on the ground in their first 3 games, and held Michigan to 2 first downs in the 2nd half. Michigan does not look the same if they can't run the ball, and Wisconsin is allowing 23 rushing yards a game on the season, and last week held Notre Dame to 3 rushing yards on 32 carries. Michigan has not turned the ball over all season, while Wisconsin has done so 9 times. Wisconsin is looking at potentially starting their season 1-3, and basically it will be over so a huge effort is expected at home. Since 2016 there have been 9 unranked teams facing a top 15 team as a favorite. Those games saw 7 of the 9 win the game, and the 2 losses were both by 1 point! This is Michigan's first road game of the year, and it won't be easy vs a Wisconsin team playing to keep their season alive. Wisconsin is 61-8 at home in their last 69 and is a very difficult place to win. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Seattle had a big halftime lead vs Tennessee last week, and let it slip away in the 2nd half in a 33-30 loss. The Titans went for over 500 yards on the Seahawks. Minnesota despite allowing a considerable amount of points has one of the top run defenses in the league, and they will be able to get pressure on Wilson. Cousin's has 6 starts vs Seattle and 5 of the games have played under, and the Minnesota defense has historically been much better at home, and this will be the home opener for the Vikings. Russell Wilson is 15-7 to the under when playing as a road favorite. I like the under in this one.

The Steelers have been regressing ever since their huge start a season ago. This may well be Big Ben's swan song as his numbers in terms of yards per attempt have been steadily declining. He also has a very soft offensive line in front of him. He is getting banged up on a weekly basis, and once again has an injury although he will play through it. T.J. Watt left last game and is questionable this week, as the injuries are piling up already. The Steelers had a big win in their opener vs Buffalo, but were out-played and out-gained by over 100 yards. They had a golden opportunity last week vs the Raiders who were off a short week, and traveling across the country. They were physically beaten, and were out-gained by nearly 100 yards. Cincinnati beat Minnesota, and lost to Chicago by just 3 despite imploding offensively with 4 turnovers. They held the Bear's to 206 total yards. The Bengals can only blame themselves for not being 3-0, and right now the optics on Pittsburgh are not good. Make the play on Cincinnati.

The Bears rookie QB Justin Fields has struggled and the Bears are generating just 4.2 passing yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allow 5.7. He is holding the ball way too long, and Andy Dalton has been ruled out this week so it is all on Fields. I would expect the Bears somewhat above average running game be in play a lot more, along with the short quick passing game. The Bears will contain the Browns running game, and that will put the game in Baker Mayfield's hands but he will be without key target Jarvis Landry. Field's ran the ball 10 times last week and he should have some scrambling success in this one. The Brown's have not looked all that dominating this season, and getting a TD plus in the NFl is enticing, especially with a team that defends well. Mayfield is just 14-21 ATS when the total is 41.5 to 48.5 and just 4-9 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 to -10.5. Make the play on Chicago.

Laying a TD or more on the road in the NFL has always been a tough cover, especially for a team traveling across the country. A road favorite of more than -7 in the first 3 weeks of the season are just 14-26 ATS. Making the cross country trip makes this game against the body clock of the Cardinals. Jacksonville looks to have a weakened secondary because of injuries and signed Nevin Lawson this week. QB Trevor Lawrence is airing it out, but the results have been up and down thus far. Jacksonville should have success on the ground to help shorten the game. Kyler Murray has not had a lot of success playing as a favorite where the Cardinals are 4-10 ATS. Playing as a favorite off a game where they had a 2 turnover or more advantage in their last game is 97-53 ATS. Make the play on Jacksonville.

The Indianapolis Colts are facing some serious QB issues heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Last week QB Carson Wentz suffered an ankle injury, and then another, with the second sending him to the sidelines. Wentz is listed as questionable, and if he plays, he will likely be hampered. Their 2nd string QB Sam Ehlinger went down in preseason leaving Jacob Eason as perhaps the starter in this one. Eason did not look good in his backup role last week, going 2-5 with an INT. Regardless who starts, the Titan's are likely going to bring pressure. Tennessee has had a penchant for starting slow, and finishing fast. There will be a point in time, where that changes, as a lot of it is random, but when it keeps occurring it also becomes psychological. This week the Titans should have all the tools to win, and with a less than healthy Wentz, or a vastly inexperienced Eason, the Titans should be able to breakaway in this one. Make the play on Tennessee.

USC has QB issues but Kedon Slovis has been named the starter as he has been dealing with a neck injury. Oregon St. is 2-1 and has an experienced team with 19 starters returning. They hve out-gained all 3 opponents on the season and have an outstanding passing attack that should be able to put up enough points in this game against a pedestrian USC secondary to stay in this game. The Oregon St. defense is rather ordinary, but good enough. The difference in these teams is perception, but not so much reality. I have the fair line in this game from 6/7.5 depending on just how healthy the USC QB situation is. Plenty of line value here, make the play on Oregon St.

Both these teams enter at 2-1, and both come in off huge blowout losses. The winner will be excited as these programs historically have not shown a whole lot. Someone comes out 3-1 and feeling pretty good about themselves. Many will look at this game and see they have each had a game vs New Mexico St. and New Mexico won by just 9, and UTEP dominated them on the road 30-3. Certainly says to most that the choice is clearly UTEP. UTEP Coach Dana Dimel had success at Wyoming, and was hired by Houston where he never had a winning season in 3 years, finishing 8-26. This is his 4th year at UTEP and he is 7-28 and has not won a conference game since 2018, where he won just 1. Danny Gonzales was a grad assistant over 20 years ago at New Mexico and this is his first time as a head coach. Most recently he was the defensive coordinator at San Diego St., and Arizona St. What I like about this game is the match up. UTEP loves to run the ball as they average 44 carries a game, and New Mexico is strong up front allowing just 272 rushing yards on 80 attempts or 3.4 yards per attempt. UTEP has some ball control issues as they have turned it over 9 times in 3 games, and New Mexico has forced 6 already. The Lobos held Texas A&M to less than 5 yards per carry, and games are usually won and lost in the trenches where I favor the Lobos. Make the play on New Mexico.

There isn't anything about this game that would attract most except the history books. There is no argument for Akron here, and Ohio St. could score on just about every possession. That is the broad view of this game. These games all look like they could play out 70-0, but seldom do. Starters should be on the sidelines by kick-off in the 2nd half. The driving influence here is this nugget. Since 1996 there has been 13 teams favored by 49 or more points vs an FBS team. They have proceeded to log a 1-12 ATS record. If you go back a bit further they are 2-16 ATS. I like the rationale behind playing against these enormous favorites. Some 49.5 lines still out there but 49 should be easy to find. Make the play on Akron.

The winner of this game will be 4-0, and get a big conference win. I have not been impressed with Oklahoma St. on offense, while the defense has been rather good. Mike Gundy returned just 5 starters on offense and his top 3 wide receivers are on the injury report as questionable. It has shown up on the scoreboard as the best Oklahoma St. has managed is 28 points in 3 games. The 3 wins have come by a net of 13 points, and the Cowboys have out-gained Missouri St., Tulsa, and Boise St. by 8 yards a game. Coach Klieman is a builder and he has Kansas St. on the rise. Despite QB injuries, the Wildcats are soaring on offense averaging 6.4 yrds per play to a schedule of teams allowing 5.4. The defense is just as good allowing 4.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams generating 5.6. They have been a yard better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.Both these teams strength of schedule is about even, and by no means should Oklahoma St. be favored by this much. It is a reputation line, and I'm not buying it. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is a big question mark regarding this Clemson team. What happened to the offense? Clemson lost a ton, but this team doesn't rebuild, they reload. The Tigers have a lot to answer for on offense, as they are averaging 8.5 points per game against FBS teams. Scoring 3 against Georgia may be able to be explained by the Georgia defense which may be the best in the country, but 14 vs Georgia Tech? NC State has allowed 31 points in 3 games or 10.3 points per game, so how in the world is Clemson going to cover around 10? There is one big reason. The offense will be better, bet on it. The defense is as elite as ever as the Clemson defense has allowed 0 points on the season. NC State scored just 10 points in their only legit game vs Miss St. and turned the ball over 3 times. Just remember over the summer the line on this game was posted around -20 at a Vegas Super book! Perception has blown this way out of proportion, and we get Clemson on the cheap here. If you think practices have been easy this week at Clemson, think again. I expect a big win by Clemson in this one, with the cover. Make the play on Clemson.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners have perhaps their best team in school history. They beat Illinois in a game where they led throughout the contest. Memphis was handed one last week by officials, and they scored 2 non-offensive TD's. We are used to Memphis going up and down the field but last week they managed just 246 total yards, and were out-gained by over 200 yards in the game. Offensively UTSA is an average team, but they run a lot of plays so the yardage per game is high at 477 yards per contest. The defense has been the strong point of this team, and Memphis does not have the same explosiveness as past years. Memphis is out-gaining opponents by just 22 yards per game and the Roadrunners are out-gaining opponents by 215 yards per contest. Some hidden value comes from UT San Antonio running 16 more plays a game than their opponents and Memphis 12 fewer than opponents. Jeff Taylor will have his team ready, and this one is prime for the upset. Make the play on UT San Antonio.

This will be a must see event as Kansas City will head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Kansas City came back last week after trailing Cleveland 22-10. Baltimore was surprised by Vegas 33-27 and were ripped apart for nearly 400 yards in the air. Baltimore did their thing offensively balancing the running and throwing game. The Chiefs are finding ways to win but are not dominating teams, as they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 but have covered just 1 of them. Jackson made 2 crucial fumbles for Baltimore last week who coughed up a 14 point lead. I look for him to have a huge game here. Jackson has only been an under dog once in his career at home, and he beat New England 37-20. I'm making this pick based on 2 things. Betting lines is better than betting teams, and this line fits Baltimore. The other is all the situational angles fit Baltimore as well. Yes, I am aware of Mahomes September magic where he has thrown 35 TD's to 0 INT's. That will change this week. Make the play on Baltimore.

This might be the perfect storm. Houston is one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they just beat a team that was 1-15 last year. That 16 point win was a product of 3 Jacksonville turnovers, as the line of scrimmage was otherwise pretty even. Houston is going to lose a lot of games this season, by as many points as they won their opener, and one is coming this week vs the Browns. Brandon Cooks got free deep all afternoon and netted 132 yards on 5 catches. I don't think he will have a good game this week as he will be blanketed by Denzel Ward. Cleveland let a 22-10 halftime lead at Kansas City evaporate and are now 0-16-1 SU in their last 17 openers. I believe the Browns are one of the top teams in the league this year but many will look at the line here and fear taking the Browns. I won't be one of them. Make the play on Cleveland.

The Denver Bronco's dominated the NY Giants last week with a solid 14 point on the road. They will head for the east coast for the 2nd straight week. This line was -3 and has grown to -6. Sometimes it is better to play numbers than teams, and this number is now off. Jacksonville won just 1 game last year and was beaten rather soundly by a weak Houston team on the road last week by 16. This is the NFL. Jacksonville had 395 yards despite 3 turnovers, and they also missed a field goal. The Denver 14 point margin in their win and the Jacksonville 16 point deficit has made this line off the mark. Denver is in a tough spot losing a couple of key players and will be making the long trip to the East coast for the 2nd straight week. It is hard to win back-to-back games on the road in this league, and this one could go either way. Make the play on Jacksonville.

It looks like Joe Burrow is being handled cautiously. he led NFL QB's in the amount of drop backs per game a year ago, but in an entire game, plus pretty much all of overtime he threw the ball just 27 times. The Bengals will hurt on the other side of the ball as they lost safety Ricardo Allen who is on injured reserve. Andy Dalton did not have a good debut with the Bear's last week, but Chicago was able to run the ball 26 times for 134 yards vs a solid Ram defense. The Bears lost to a top tier team on the road by 20 points and the market is reacting to that loss and the Bengal overtime win at home against the Vikings. It has put the value on the Bears here, as Cincinnati is now the road team, and Chicago is home. The Bears lost the yardage battle by just 60 yards, which does not correlate to a 20 point loss, but turnovers hurt and the Rams played a clean game, and the Bears turned it over twice. Cincinnati relied a lot on their running game, and likely will do the same here as Burrow gets back up to speed. That may be the strongest part of this Bear's team and Cincinnati will not have the same success here. I think the Bear's are 4-6 points better than the Bengals at home off a loss, and where this line is now is enough value to mke this play on Chicago.

I generally like the concept of playing on a team off a loss when they are facing a team off a win. Better yet a team off perhaps an undeserving win? The Miami Dolphins went to Foxboro last week and beat New England 17-16. They won the game despite losing the first down battle 24-16, and at the line of scrimmage where they were out-gained 393-259. Buffalo was on the opposite side of that. They lost despite winning the first down battle 22-16 an the yards battle 371-252. Pittsburgh blocked a punt for a TD in the game. That game vs Pittsburgh was tough, because it was played in high winds giving the Steelers strong defense the advantage. Tua Tagovailoa was in trouble last week very often, and his numbers have never been as good as expectations. I don't see the Bills starting 0-2, nor the Dolphins 2-0. Nothing we saw in week 1 suggests that will be the case either. Make the play on Buffalo.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

When it comes to playing against the Big-10 it has been 90 years since the Auburn Tigers have faced a Big-10 team. This should be a big game as both teams come in ranked. The deck is certainly stacked for Penn St. First, it will be ESPN's Game Day. If that isn't enough, it is the annual white-out game where 100,000+ fans all dress in white. Next, this will be a very hostile crowd that some Auburn players have yet to see because covid limited fans a year ago. Auburn has a young team with just 9 starters returning. Bo Nix is still an enigma to me. He has dominated at home over his career where he has thrown 22 TD's to just 3 INT's. The road has been dramatically different where he has thrown 10 TD's and 10 INT's. He is going to have to be better than that. Auburn has generated 9.9 yards per play which looks elite, until you see it was against 2 teams that combine to allow 9.1. Penn St. went from a brutal 0-5 start last year to have now gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS. Auburn has beaten 2 real cream puffs at home, this is going into the deep end of the pool in more ways than one, and I don't think this young team is ready to handle it. Make the play on Penn St.

Dave Clawson has silently done an incredible job at Wake Forest. He has led a team that has the worst ll-time record of any P5 program to 5 straight bowls. The biggest problem he has had is recruiting enough depth. His teams over the 5 Bowl years and this year so far are 27-13 prior to November 3rd, but just 6-12 in the regular season after that. His team will benefit from the free year all players got due to covid-19, as he will return 9 5th year seniors and 19 starters in all. He has led Wake Forest to the 3 best scoring offenses in school history from 2017-19, and last year even better at 36 points per game. Wake has played 2 easy games, but this one is going to let the cat out of the bag. Wake is a team that I have as the most underrated in the country coming in. If they can stay healthy, they are going to have a big season, and right now they have 0 players on the injury list. I love Mike Norvell, but he has his hands full. Florida St. reminds me of Nebraska. They dominated for many years, the super coach leaves and the program never returns to what it was. Florida St. is heading down the same path. The Seminoles were 304-78 from 1987-2016 with 21 seasons of 10 wins or more. They have been 21-28 since. Since the start of the 2017 season they are 12-20 in the ACC and just 10-20-2 ATS. Since the start of the 2018 season they are 2-12 on the road with the average loss coming by 20.1 points per game. How the mighty has fallen. Last week they lost 20-17 to Jacksonville St. at home. Starting QB Travis Jordan is listed as available, and McKenzie Milton is a great story but he has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt so far, and is a long way from the QB he was before his really bad injury while at Central Florida. Milton had not played since 2018. Wake is the superior team here, well motivated, deeply experienced, and a competent QB with some great wide receivers, and all 11 offensive starters back and healthy. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Notre Dame has started 2-0, but it is a very soft 2-0. They were strongly challenged by both Florida St. and Toledo. Yes, they are 2-0 but they don't look anything like they have in recent years. There are a lot of holes. This team has ruled the line of scrimmage over the last 3-4 years, but have been out-rushed 198-99 by two opponents I would rate below Purdue. Worse than that through 2 games Notre Dame has allowed 4 plays of 60+ yards already under new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. Here is the scary part of that. Under former defensive coordinator Clark Lea they allowed fewer than that over the last 3 years combined! The other surprising stat is the Notre Dame offensive front has already allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Purdue Coach Brohm is 15-5 ATS as a road dog since coming to Purdue. He has 18 starters returning and have looked the part early. A road dog of 3.5-10 points in a non-conference game off a non-conference game is 51-20 ATS the last 5 years. I think Purdue is within a score of this Notre Dame team that has yet to earn their national ranking this year. This one is close. Make the play on Purdue.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.

I believe Matt Ryan could be in for a big season. The Falcons have brought in Arthur Smith as head coach, and if you look what happened to Ryan Tannehill under Smith his numbers skyrocketed. Ryan has been stuck with poor offensive approaches the last 4 years, and I think that is going to change this season. The Eagles may be sliding as their typical strong defense is seeing their best players past the age now where historically there is a decline. The offense is lacking play makers and Jalen Hurts does not look like the answer at QB with the supporting cast he has on offense. The NFL is a QB dominated league and Atlanta at home with a coach that will allow his skill to take over, against Jalen Hurts who saw his Philly team go 1-4 in his 5 starts is a mismatch. Make the play on Atlanta.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

Hard to believe what we saw fron North Carolina last week. Their electric offense, behind a Heisman caliber QB in Sam Howell scored 10 points vs Virginia Tech. Lane Stadium was electric, and the Heels just were not ready to match the Hokies energy and were beaten. Did Sam Howell lose a Heisman opportunity in just 1 week? Certainly possible as he threw 3 INT's in the loss. Carolina out-gained Virginia Tech 354-296, but made too many mistakes. Lost in this game is the Carolina defense which limited Virginia Tech to 296 yards. Mack Brown has everyone back on defense and it showed. Georgia St. returns everyone on offense but Army limited them to 10 points and just 177 total yards. The Panthers did a good job against the Army rushing attack, but the Carolina offense is just the opposite and they have too much speed here and should be playing with an edge after their horrible performance on the road. It will be redemption Saturday in Chapel Hill. I like North Carolina in a blowout.

Let's get these things out of the way to start. Iowa St. has not beaten Iowa by more than 3 points in the last 14 years. Iowa has also won the last 5. This Cyhawk rivalry goes back to the 1800s. Iowa destroyed Indiana in its opener while Iowa St. had to hold on for a tough win vs an FCS opponent in Northern Iowa. Now for the good stuff. Iowa St. was a top 10 team a year ago, and brings back 21 starters from that team. They have a seasoned NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy, an All-American capable RB in Breece Hall, and an NFL TE in Charlie Kolar. The defense has allowed a total of 16 2nd half points in its last 16 games. Needless to say this was a top 10 team last year, and this is a potential playoff team this year. Iowa had 2 pick-6's against Indiana which was the game. They will be an under dog for the first time in this series in the last 21 years. Iowa isn't as good as they looked vs Indiana, and Iowa St. wasn't as bad as they looked vs Northern Iowa. Iowa has not been good in a dog role lately where they have 1 upset in their last 9 games as a road dog, and are just 2-7 ATS in those games. This is the best Iowa St. team ever and the summer line was Iowa St. -8, but the perception created in each team's opener has moved this line without real justification. The real Iowa St. takes the field this week at home where they are the much better and deeper team. Make the play on Iowa St.

California had some high expectations last year, and covid-19 derailed their season. The Bears played just 4 games and went a disheartening 1-3. They were missing a lot of key players in 2 of the games, and completely self-destructed in 2 others.They did win their finale vs Oregon 21-17 who was a ranked team at the time.  The Bears lost their opener on the road vs a very good Nevada team 22-17. The game was played pretty even, and while the defense did its part, the offense did not click as expected, and I believe they are better than what they showed. The defense has been a staple for this team in recent years, and this year will be no exception. The area that was horrible last year was special teams, and there is no where to go but up, and if they fix the problem, they will automatically be better. The Bears could be a top 30-40 team this year and good enough to meet some of the expectations. TCU finished strong last year but had to withdraw from a Bowl bid because of covid-19. The TCU program has always been very good but the last 3 years have not been of the same caliber. The Frogs are just 18-17. The offense should be good but they lost 3 defensive players to the NFL, and their not going to be able to get the same level this year. This game comes down to Cal's ability to limit the TCU offense and they have been a proven commodity in that arena. They also have a better offense than they showed in game 1, and are catching the TCU defense early, before the new players grasp the system. Think this is a single digit game. These are the games Justin Wilcox has seen his team excel in. Wilcox has led his team to a 19-8 ATS record as a dog with 12 outright wins! Those 12 outright wins has seen his team win 7 of the 12 as a +7 or more dog. Make the play on California.

Notre Dame does not have the depth it has had over the past few seasons. We saw that impact last week as the defense was dog tired and the Irish defense looked helpless in stopping the Florida St. offense in the 2nd half. Florida St. piled up the rushing yards generating 264. Transfer QB Jack Coan looked very comfortable racking up 366 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Noles as he has a lot of weapons unlike he has had before. They will be coming off a short week which certainly could leave the defense vulnerable again vs a Toledo team that is returning 21 players and should contend for the MAC Title. Last season Toledo put up 35 points per game and certainly could up that total this season. The Rockets have it all covered on offense and should pump enough points into this game limit the work the Notre Dame offense has to generate to push this one over the top. Notre Dame could not stop Florida St. and Toledo is going to get their share here against an Irish defense which is good but not not like what we have seen the past couple of seasons. Make the play on the over.

If you happened to get a glimpse of Tulsa last week, it had to make you cringe. The Golden Hurricanes had an easy game vs FCS UC Davis and they were posted as a 25 point favorite. One problem. They did not even score 25 points they finished with 17 and had trouble all game getting anything going. Tulsa QB David Brin put a lot of expectations on the QB with a 4th quarter come from behind win vs Tulane last year. That isn't what we saw in week 1. Oklahoma St. was a 38 point favorite vs FCS Missouri St. and barely pulled out a 23-16 win. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch and is in quarantine regarding covid-19. He is expected to miss again. The Cowboys generated just 5.2 yards per play against an FCS team and turned the ball over 3 times. Oklahoma St. faced Tulsa last season and won a very low scoring game 16-7. I don't see a whole lot of difference here in this one. Make the play on the under.

Texas St. has not been in the FBS that long. They had some early success, but the last 6 years has seen this program go 15-57 SU, and they have not logged more than 3 wins in any season over the last 6 years. Dave Aranda`s first year as Baylor head coach was a 2-7 disaster. He had to install a new system on both sides of the ball, but covid took away spring practice. This on the heels of a Conference Championship game and Sugar Bowl appearance. The offense is full of weapons, and the defense has 22 players returning with ample experience. The special teams are among the best in the nation and I would not be surprised to spring one vs Texas St. Baylor will be a top 40-50 team, but if a QB emerges and surprises they will be a top 25 team. Last year makes them look light years from being competitive, but that is far from the case. Texas St. over the last 6 years has faced 4 P-5 Conference teams and has lost on average by 34 points per game and none closer than 28. I think Baylor comes away with a comfortable win and cover. Make the play on Baylor.

The Indiana Hoosiers finished 6-2 a year ago and for the first time they beat Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. That has set high expectations for this season, especially with QB Michael Penix returning off a torn ACL. Penix is a very solid QB, but in 3 years at Indiana his season has ended prematurely with leg or shoulder surgery. Week 1 vs a very strong defense is going to test him immediately and I'm not sure Indiana is going to put him in a lot of running spots, which could limit his overall effectiveness. One big question for Indiana is the offensive line. The Hoosiers ran for just 3.3 yards a carry last year, and a one-dimensional attack is not going to beat a strong and experienced Iowa defense. Iowa seems to be in the hunt every season. They opened 0-2 and ran the table to finish 6-2. Iowa has a commanding QB and one of the top RB's in the league that can close games in Tyler Goodson. Iowa is really tough at home, especially when they need to be, in a competitive situation. Iowa is 15-1 SU in their last 16 at home as a favorite of less than -6. I like Iowa in this one.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were certainly not good last season with a 3-6 finish, but that doesn`t tell the story. Rutgers brought back Greg Schiano who built the program previously, and he already had Rutgers competing in year one. Rutgers went from on average losing by 33 points per game to losing by 5 points per game last year. He has his system in place and 20 starters back to execute it. Rutgers beat Michigan St. by 11 their first win over the Spartans since 1994, and first road win there since 1991. Temple won just 1 game a year ago, and the rise of Temple was halted after 6 straight seasons of finishing .500 or better. They lost their last 4 by a combined score of 42-151, and a 35 point loss to Tulane and a 25 point loss to ECU were very telling how far away this team is. Rutgers thrived behind Schiano the first time around and they are poised to do it again. Make the play on Rutgers

This will be year 4 for Chip Kelley at UCLA. Everyone expected to see an Oregon-type offense out of the Bruin's but that level has not manifested itself to date. Things are about to change. The Bruins have 10 players back on offense and the most important is QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Robinson is healthy after missing 2.5 of the Bruin's covid shortened season last year that saw them play just 6 times.  This is a loaded offense being run by an above-average QB, that has also run for 8.6 yards per carry last year. The Bruins are poised to topple the respectable 465 yards per game they generated a year ago with 10 starters returning. The defense was much better than the 30.7 points per game they allowed and has 10 starters back and will benefit from a better offense, and experience. Hawaii has a suspect QB in Chevan Cordiero. He isn't special, but adequate, and he will have to be special to beat UCLA. The Warrior's have 10 defenders back and should be better, but I think the UCLA offense is going to improve more than the Hawaii defense, and this game sets up as one of those Chip Kelley pile it on blowouts. Make the play on UCLA.

It has been 638 days since the UConn Huskies have played a game. This is a school that has been horrible for a decade running. This is coach Randy Edsal's second go around at the University, and things have not gone well. Edsal is 6-30 upon his return, and just 3-30 against FBS competition. The Huskies have a roster that has 102 players 93 of them have 3 years of eligibility remaining. They have 44 true freshmen and 14 red shirt freshmen, which represents about 57% of the roster. There are just 8 seniors or red shirt seniors on the entire roster. Moreover, of the 70 players that saw the field in 2019 (their last actual game), 44 are no longer here. Complicating inexperience is the depth chart. The weather in Fresno will be very hot. The expected high temperature is 100-105. Fresno St. has 20 starters back. QB Jake Haener threw for 336ypg a year ago, and has 3 WR's that could all be a #1. Additionally they have a RB that has broken most school records already with a full year more to add to it. UConn has a very inexperienced offensive line, a guess at who starts at QB, and Fresno finished last season 3rd in the country with 4.16 sacks a game with everyone returning. UConn has had so many lopsided games, and this sure looks like another one. Make the play on Fresno St.

Saturday August 28th, 2021

There is a lot to unpack for this game. We have two QBs that may in the end go down to the top 2 all-time. I think for the KC offense it comes down to how much will it matter that their offensive line is down both of their starting tackles? I think for Tampa Bay it will come down to how Brady handles the blitz. The Bucs allowed 27 points in the 1st meeting, which is a win against this KC offense. The points however didn't tell the story. Tyreke Hill owned the game. Kansas City was up 17-0 early and was on their way to making it 24-0 when Mahomes suffered a strip-sack inside the 15. Hill had 202 receiving yards in the first quarter. Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the game. The 27 points were an anomaly, it could just as easily have been 45. Tampa Bay will get destroyed if they depend on the blitz to get pressure. They learned that lesson early and often in game 1. They blitzed 12 times in that game, 11 in their first half. They also have to be more relaxed on the line. Tampa Bay jumped offsides 4 times in the game, which is a Mahomes specialty, as he drew 26 flags this season, tops in the league, while Tampa Bay jumped 24 times on defense ranked second-worst in the league. Trying to play man defense is suicide against Mahomes, as they ran a man defense for 8 plays, and Mahomes was 6-8 for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The problem is, Travis Kelce is a zone destroyer and a blitz destroyer. He was targeted just 8 times in that game but had 8 catches. When KC lines up with 3 receivers on one side, and Kelcey alone on the other side, Mahomes keys on White. If White blitzes, the back comes out to Kelce's side, and it is 2 on 1 with Kelce carving free space in the middle. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against opponents TEs, and this guy is the best of them all. If KC goes 12 personnel with 2 TE's Mahomes averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and the TB defense on the season allows 8.1. The TB defense ranks 26th on first down, 16th on 2nd, 6th on 3rd, and 1st on 4th. They get better by the down. TB is going to get chances to score. KC allowed 954 yards to TEs this season. Gronk and Cameron Brate were targeted often and with success in the first meeting. Gronk had his best game of the year, and Brate had 4 grabs as well. TB likes to throw downfield and had 67 passing plays of 20+ yards, while the KC pass defense allowed 54. The TB offense is peaking right now. They ranked 11th in week's 1-9 but have since ranked #2. (ahead of KC). While Mahomes is good at drawing flags at the line of scrimmage, Brady and the Buc's receivers are good at drawing flags for DPI. The Bucs got 23 of those, an all-time record. Those 23 plays supplied 395 more yards of hidden offense. KC was flagged 15 times for defensive pass interference, and additionally, their defensive backs rank #30 in broken tackles allowed. I can see where two offenses that each have a plethora of star-studded weapons can find ways to score quickly, as each defense has vulnerabilities that each opponent has the weapons to expose. My play in this game is on OVER the total.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 1 game away from defending their Super Bowl win from a year ago. The Buffalo Bills after losing 4 straight Super Bowls have a chance for redemption with a win. There is a very hidden stat in the Chiefs season log which may explain why they are still winning, but by scant margins. The Bills also have some hidden numbers, that show why their defense is vastly underrated. The Kansas City Chiefs through week 6 had the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Since week 7 those numbers have substantially declined, and their ranking from that point on is 19th. The Bills defense ranked 30th through 6 weeks, but has ranked 6th since week 7. The Chiefs like to throw on 1st down, but th Bills rank #1 on first down pass defense, but #29 on first down running plays. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs alter their game plan. The Bills also have an advantage when they line up in 10 personnel (4 wide receivers), where they average 7 yards per play. Their game against KC saw them run 33 plays out of 11 personnel that averaged just 2.8 yards per play. They ran 18 plays out of 11 personnel and gained 7.8 yards per play. Look for a heavy dose of 4 receiver sets for the Bills. Buffalo also played their week 6 game against KC without RG Jon Feliciano, and they will be better this time with him. KC ranks 31st defending running backs when they blitz, so look for Allen to get the ball out quickly in dump offs to the backs. Buffalo has been better with LB Matt Milano back, and I see some edges here for the Bills tht were liabilities in week 6. Overall, the Bills since week 7 have been the better team, and I look for them to get the win against the Chiefs. There is also a wait and see regarding Pat Mahomes toe. He may not be as willing or able to run, and may be less mobile in the pocket.  Make the play on Buffalo.

The Green Bay Packers made the LA Rams defense look bad on their way to the NFC Conference Championship Game. Looking at that game one would think Green Bay will roll all over the Tampa defense, but I don't think so. Tampa Bay presents a different set of problems for Green Bay. The Packers like to get Aaron Jones outside runs in space, but the Bucs have White and David, as the fastest linebacker tandem in th NFL, and I don't see success there. The Packers could utilize AJ Dillon to take it up the middle, and over-power the 2 linebackers who are rather small, with white at 237 and David just 233. Dillon is generating 3.2 yards after contact, but how much are they willing to use him, and how healthy is he, as he suffered a quad injury last game. It will come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay get on Rodgers with just a 4 man rush? Rodgers has regressed tremendously as he has aged when a 4 man rush gets pressure, averaging a career low 3.3 yards per pass attempt. That is what happened in the first meeting, it is what happened vs Carolina. Rodgers was sacked 4 times in each game. Meanwhile Tom Brady will likely have plenty of time to throw. Green By is a bottom 10 team in getting pressure. The Packers have an answer in the secondary with Jaire Alexander who ranks in the top 10 defending #1 receivers. The issue is all the others who rank in the bottom 10 defending the rest of the receivers and running backs. The Rams did not have the offense to exploit than, the Bucs do. Tampa Bay has been snapping the ball a out more out of 12 personnel (2 tight ends). That is troubling for the run defense by the Packers who love playing dime defense, and in some cases 6 DB's. That highly exposes the Packers defense, and this is not a good match up for the Packer defense. That is more concerning with the fact that Kingsley Keke has been ruled out for Green Bay. It will all come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay apply with a 4 man rush, and with David Bakhtiari out for the Packers, this may be the first defensive front that can make that hurt. I like Tampa Bay in this one.

The Tampa Bay Bucs started the season with a lot of new faces. The biggest addition was Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs offense struggled early, as covid shut down training camps, and practice time in a new system just wasn`t there. Brady looked old, could not complete the dep pass, and he looked like a declining GOAT. game one was an immediate test, and the Saints beat them 34-23. Brady threw for 6.6 yards per attempt, 2 INTs, and was under a lot of pressure, and was picked off twice. It took a 90 yard drive late in the 4th to make the score look a bit more respectable. The Bucs would go on to win 6 of their next 7 with the only loss a 1 point heartbreaker vs the Bears. They sure seemed poised to get revenge at home 2 months later vs the Saints. It got worse. They lost 38-3 and Brady threw 3 INTs was dropped 3 more times, and was under siege the entire game. Drew Brees had another big game finishing with a 135.2 passer rating, to Brady`s 40.4. The Bucs outside of their best game of the year vs the Packers would go on to go 0-5 vs playoff teams allowing nearly 30ppg. The bottom line here is the Saints is their worse possible matchup. Here is the skinny on Brady. The 2017 season saw him with the smallest gap when under pressure vs no pressure, as pressure made no difference. Since then those numbers have climbed off the chart. This year those numbers have completely tanked as he now has the 4th largest gap throwing with pressure vs no-pressure. Brady generates 8.1 yards per attempt when not under pressure to 5.6 yards per attempt with pressure. This plays right into the Saints strength as they allow 6.5 yards per attempt when they have 4 pass rushers, and 5.2 yards per attempt when the rush 5 or more. Buc`s LT Donovan Smith had 6 blown pass blocks in the 2 games vs New Orleans this year, Alex Cappa fractured his ankle last week and will turn over his starting job to an untested Aaron Stinnie. Brady since the bye has been much better throwing the deep ball at 9.7 yrds per attempt, but that was against Detroit, Atlanta, and all teams the worst at getting pressure. There are some other reasons I like the matchup here, but clearly, what was stated above exposes the biggest advantage on the field in today`s game. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

I have been watching the weather forecast in Buffalo, and it appears that the potential for high winds will not occur until well after this game. Weather should not play a significant role in this game other than cold and perhaps some snow showers. There is something to learn about how the Ravens defended the Bills in their 2019 meeting. They blitzed Josh Allen on every one of the Bills first 9 plays, and 11 of the first 12. The Ravens are the top blitzing team in the NFL at 45.1% of all opponent snaps. Maybe that work then, but it will be ill advised now. Allen has made perhaps the biggest year-over-year improvement of any NFL QB in history. The Ravens defensive coordinator promised in his press conference, there will be pressure, that's what they do. The 2019 game saw them bring pressure on 31 snaps, sacked Allen 6 times, and forced him to fumble. The word on Allen is to blitz him, and the Ravens send a lot of CB blitzes, and Allen has faced more of those than any QB in the league. Big problem, that doesn't work anymore. Allen ranked 21st in the league to such blitzes a year ago, this year he ranks number 2 behind only Patrick Mahommes. Allen has thrown just 2 of his 10 INTs against the blitz this season. The Bills love to go deep and expect some success in doing so. Buffalo isn't going to run the ball, and the pass heavy offense would be wise to keep the ball in the air the entire game. Tennessee did a good job keeping Baltimore in 2nd and long situations, and Baltimore ranks 25th in those situations. They managed just 20 points against a highly suspect Tennessee defense. The Buffalo defense has been above average since week 10, and the league leading missed tackles on the season, was reduced to just 1 against Tennessee, and they will have to maintain that in this contest. The Bills also should limit the snaps of playing man coverage. This is where Jackson often turns a dead play into a chunk rushing opportunity, and no QB cashes in better than Jackson. This game to me comes down to which offense is more effective, the run heavy offense of the Ravens, vs the pass happy offense of the Bills. The Bills were projected to win 9 games this season, and they won 13. The reason is quite simple, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs. It is hard in this era of the NFL to take a run heavy offense vs a pass heavy one. I am playing the Bills in this one.

This game is going to be determined by the top rated LA Rams defense vs the top rated Green Bay Packer offense. There are a few things of note here. I will start with the biggest match up in the game which will be Jalen Ramsey vs Devonte Adams. Adams averaged 98.1 yards per game while Ramsey allowed just 19.3 yards per game. Adams had 18 TD catches and Ramsey allowed just 3. The total yards of those 3 TDs was 7 combined. That gave the Rams defense a very off the charts 4.7 yards allowed to opponent throws to the right side. Here is what isn't spoken about. The Rams ranked 18th in throws to the left, and 21st in throws over the middle. The Rams were the best in the league stuffing the run on 1st down, but were 30th against the pass on 1st down. They were 1st against the pass on 2nd down. The Rams defense is also 31st on third and short. The Rams have faced very few top offenses this season. Their schedule draw saw them play 8 games vs the worst 2 conferences in football the NFC East, and the AFC East. The top 2 offenses they faced in Tampa Bay and Buffalo they allowed an average of 29.5ppg. Green Bay is better. Everyone says defense wins championships. That simply is not the case in the NFL. The Packer defense has been steadily improving, and over its last 5 games they have allowed 17.2ppg. The Rams offense has steadily declined, and with Cooper Kupp questionable, and a dinged up WB that has had a bad year when healthy, and a stud on defense in Aaron Donald that is not 100%, I don't see where they are turning.Let's suppose Adams is taken out of the game by Ramsey. The Packer offense played 2 games without Adams as well, and scored 37 on a big New Orleans defense, and Rodgers QB rating in the 2 games was higher than his season average. The Packers led every game this season by 7 points or more, and allowed 72 points in the 4th quarter in 6 games they led by 18 or more with 10 minutes or less remaining. Take that out of the equation and they allowed the same defensive point average as the Rams. I don't think this game is going to be close. Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS to the under and is 21-8 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bears have snuck into the playoffs at 8-8 on the season. While it appeared that RB Montgomery, and QB Trubisky have appeared to ignite a stale and subpar offense, the improvements are smoke and mirrors. The Bears since week 7 are 3-7. The wins came against Jacksonville, Houston, and Minnesota, with a loss to Detroit. The offense averaged 35 points in those games, but those defenses are all the worst in the league. They have bookended those games with losses to Green Bay, trailing 35-10 going into the 4th in one game and scoring 16 in the other, and the Green Bay defense is in the middle of the pack. Their 5-1 start to the season included wins vs Carolina, Atlanta, the Giants, and the Lions. Their schedule got them to 8 wins, nothing they have done has. New Orleans will have Brees, Thomas, and Kamara all as part of the offense for the first time since week 10. The Bears biggest advantage on offense would have been Mooney, but he is out, and the defense will be missing Roquan Smith. The Bears are becoming injured, the Saints healthy. Playoff home favorites of 10 or more points are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS, including 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS since 2008, winning by 16ppg. This game has blowout written all over it. Make the play on New Orleans.

The Baltimore Ravens are no secret on offense. They are going to run the ball. Lamar Jackson will take advantage of man defense which forces opponents to play zone most of the time. The offense was not very good early on, but from week 11 on they have been back to elite form. So you can decide if it is a product of Jackson getting healthy and back in form, or the product of the poor defenses they have faced. The defenses all ranked 21st or worse. Unfortunately for the Titans, they are one of those poor defenses. The Titans did win in overtime earlier in the season vs the Ravens, but it was the red-zone inefficiencies that stopped the Ravens. Baltimore was stopped on 3 red-zone drives, and punted just 3 times. Those punts were on the opener, just prior to the half after a penalty with :41 seconds left, and a 4th and 5. The passing game is also starting to come around. Marquise Brown had dropped 6 balls, and broken just 4 tackles all season. He created just 7 first downs on 32 deep targets all season. The last 5 weeks he has caught 3 deep TDs and 2 deep first downs on 6 attempts.The Titans have no pass rush, as they have just 19 sacks, and generate pressure the second least in the entire NFL. The Tennessee offense saw Derrick Henry gouge Houston and Jacksonville for 761 yards, so his numbers otherwise don't jump off the page. The Titans generate a lot of their offense off play action, where they have generated 1,541 yards on 174 plays. That has been a Ravens strength as they are 4th best in the league allowing 6.5 yards per attempt vs play action. So that is strength on strength. The biggest edge in this game is the Baltimore offense vs the Tennessee defense. The Ravens travel well at 23-7-1 ATS in their last 31, and my numbers say the Ravens should be a small favorite here. Make the play on Baltimore.

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks have 107 wins together since Wilson was drafted in 2012. That is 2nd to just the Patriots over the time period. They have had one nemesis, the LA Rams. The Rams have won 10 of the 18 meetings between these teams, the only team that has faced the Seahawks more than twice to have a winning record against them. The 18 meetings have seen 12 decided by a TD or less. While McVay seems to be holding out on Goff's status, he has practiced all week without any impact. I would think he goes for the Rams, but if you think he is a deal breaker consider the Rams beat Seattle and Wilson before with Austin Davis, Shaun Hill, and Kellen Clemens at QB. If the Rams win this game, it will be on defense. Expect McVay to pull off a few gadgets here as the Ram's offense has utilized tight ends and wide receivers 32 times this season for a pair of TDs. The Rams are 2nd in the league in adjusted sack rate. There is also a strong chance that LT Andrew Whitworth is back this week. The Rams defense rank 1st in a lot of categories and the Seattle offense has really struggled over the 2nd half of the season. Seattle has become a run oriented team. They passed 63% of the time over the first half of the season and just 57% of the time since. Special teams have been an issue for the Rams this season, and Seattle has the edge here, but there is nothing better than taking a defensive dog in the playoffs. The Rams are in an 81-52 ATS playoff situation as well. Make the play on the LA Rams.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills have been good all season, but have been the best team over their last 10 games where they are 9-1. The only loss over those 10 games came on a Kyler Murray Hail Mary in Arizona. The Bills have also covered 8 straight games.The Colts offense should have success moving the ball as the Bills pressure rate is a rather pedestrian 24.6% and the Colts allow a pressure rate of 18.1%, which is 3rd best in the league. Rivers has thrown all but 2 of his interceptions when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. The Colts have been the best team in the league in big play running opportunities. If they can get Taylor past the line, Indianapolis may be in for some big running plays. The Bills offense is going to score. Josh Allen has quickly grown into one of the top QBs in the league and his accuracy has taken a quantum leap. There is some question marks regarding the health of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, who are not at 100%. Te Colts will play a lot of zone coverage, and hope for a big defensive play as Allen has thrown 8 of his 10 interceptions vs the zone. The Colts can't lose touch with the Bills. They have to slow down the Bills offense, and avoid playing catch up. If they can get this into the 4th quarter with the game undecided they have some advantages to come away with a win, or at least the cover. Playoff teams off a win that have a worse record than their opponents and not a dog of +9.5 or more are 64-41 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on Indianapolis.

This has been a great year for Colorado as they were not expected to be very good. The Buff`s are 4-1 with the only loss coming to Utah by 17, but that game was a lot closer than the final score. It was decided by 3 turnovers, or basically it was a pretty even game for the line of scrimmage. Texas under Tom Herman had another promising team that simply could not get over the top. All the rumors point to his exit. He has apparently been interviewing and wants out, and apparently so do a lot of the players. His team will be without 5 captains who have opted out, 3 NFL caliber players out, and 10 players all together, including a lot of the defense. Add in injuries, and this is not going to be a team resembling the 6-3 Longhorn`s season. The motivated team will be Colorado. The Buff`s played above expectations and will be ready to play. Texas is off a minster offensive game as they hung a 69 on Kansas St. but Bowl teams that scored 60 or more points in their game prior to their bowl are:

game type=BG and p:points>=60 and o:wins

There will be some wind and snow in Green Bay tonight, but most of the snow will occur before the game. The wind should not be strong enough to be much of a factor. This game fits a very strong situation, that plays on teams that are off at least 3 straight games turnover free, as long as their opponent has 3 or more turnovers in their last 3 games and the line is fewer than 5.5 points. For those that use SDQL, it looks like this:

p:TO=0 and pp:TO=0 and ppp:TO=0 and op:TO + opp:TO + oppp:TO>2

ATS:    80-37-4 (3.29, 68.4%)

These games have covered 68.4% of all games, with 121 games in the data set.

Make the play on Green Bay.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season at 11-0, but have now dropped 3 straight. The optics on Ben Roethlisberger are awful. He is either playing through an undisclosed injury, or he is at the end of his career, or both. He can no longer throw down field, and almost every completion is short, and his air yards per pass is the lowest in the NFL. The Steelers offense has become one of the worst in the league over their last 4 games. They have scored just 17ppg after averaging 30ppg through 10 games. Moreover, the Pittsburgh passing game isn't the only issue. The inability to stretch the defense has the running game ground to a halt averaging just 3ypc in the 4 games. The Colts are surging at 10-4 and have won 5 of its last 6 games. Perhaps most notable is QB Phillip Rivers who is having a very good year. The Colts are taking care of the ball, and that is a very positive predictive indicator as a team that has played at least 3 straight clean games, meaning no turnovers, and facing a team that has committed at least 3 turnovers in total over its last 3 games are a sizzling 80-37-4 ATS. Indianapolis also fits a contrary late season indicator that is 267-175-4 ATS. Make the play on Indianapolis.

The Miami Dolphins opened last season with 7 straight losses, and here we are just a year later and the Dolphins are 9-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Just a few weeks ago the Raiders were 6-3 and looking like a playoff team themselves, but enter this contest at 7-7. The numbers however tell a different story. Miami may be 9-5 but they are getting out-gained by 30 yards per contest, and are below average on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have the biggest advantage with their passing attack vs the weak pass defense of the Dolphins. The Dolphins have turned their opponents over 26 times, and have had 7 games with 2 or more. Turnovers in the NFL are for a large part random. The Dolphins on average in 7 of their 9 wins have held a +1.75 turnover advantage. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule with 7 playoff teams thus far, logging 3 wins against them. Derek Carr will be back under center, and the QB edge is significant. Miami has some banged up receivers and in general is in a lot worse health than the Raiders. While most bettors like to take the team in need of a win in the last 2 weeks of the regular season, that is totally not the way to go. Week 16 and 17 in the NFL show a long history to prove that point. Play on a team in week 16 and 17 that has the worst record coming into the game as long as they are not an under dog of +5.5 points or more. These teams are 267-175-14 ATS.  Make the play on Las Vegas.

The New York Giants playoff hopes took a hit last week vs Arizona. After 4 straight wins, the Giants were a no-show last week losing 26-7. The Giant's liability has been an offense that is producing 14.3ppg over its last 3 games, and just 300 total yards a game on the season. They will face the red-hot Baker Mayfield offense of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has hung 40+ on each of its last 2 opponents with Mayfield throwing for nearly 700 yards in the two contests. QB Daniel Jones is questionable for this game for the Giants and the Browns offense is going to be the best unit on the field for this one. The Giants defense may keep them in it, but Cleveland will come away with another win.

The Seattle Seahawks scored 31 or more points in 7 of their first 8 games. They struggled the next 4 weeks where they failed to score more than 28 in any game, and averaged fewer than 20 points per game. The Jets were just what this tam needed as they scored a season high 40 points. The fact is Seattle has out-gained each of its last 4 opponents allowing fewer than 20 points per contest. While the offense has been slumping the poor defense has really stepped things up. Washington has been a hot team, but QB Alex Smith left last game with a calf injury and his status is up in the air. Wshington has allowed just 14.3ppg in their 4 game winning streak, but have been out-gained in their last 2. The winning streak has been fueled by a positive turnover margin in all 4 games where they are +5. The QB differential here is extremely favorable to Seattle, as Smith has 4 Tds and 6 INTs, and Wilson has thrown for 38 TDs. I think Seattle got their heads back on straight last week, and I think they win big here. Make the play on Seattle.

The Pats were embarrassed last time out vs the Rams in a prime time 24-3 blowout loss. Historically giving him extra time to prepare has been lethal as Belichick coached teams are 25-3 SU and 20-6-2 ATS on 8 to 12 days rest. His team's are also 74-49-3 ATS off a loss. Sprinkle in a 21-5 Su mark vs a rookie QB, and a 65% ATS winning rate vs 1st or 2nd year QBs and there is a lot of situations that historically has New England in a prime position here. The Pats are also 24-1-1 ATS off a loss since 2003 vs a better than .570 opponent to a line that is less than -7. Too much to ignore here. Make the play on New England.

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs are 2-7 and they have not been able to generate much offense. They are averaging 17.3ppg on the season.The Missouri defense has not held up against the top teams in the conference, but the poor offensive teams in SC, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky have scored a combined 20 points against them or 6.7ppg. Miss St. St. is the worst running team in the nation averaging 1.4 yards per carry. It has forced them to put the ball in the air 54 times a game. The aerial attack generates just 5.8 yards per attempt to a schedule of opponents allowing 7.4. Missouri is 5-4 with 3 of the losses to Alabama,Florida, and Georgia. I think there is a TD difference between these teams and will make the play on Missouri.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes were granted the right to play for the Big-10 Championship despite playing just 5 games this season. Ohio St. finished 5-0, and will take on Northwestern. This game is going to come down to the Northwestern defense and its ability to slow down the high octane offense of Ohio St. Northwestern has a legit elite defense, and finished the season 6-1. The lone loss was against Michigan St. where they had 23 players miss the game due to injuries or covid-19. They gave up 29 points. If you take that game out the Wildcats allow 12ppg. I don't expect the Cats to score a lot in this game on offense, but their defense is good at forcing turnovers and Justin Fields has been a bit less secure with the ball compared to last season. Ohio St. does not have anything close to defenses we have seen in the past from this team. They are at best very average. Northwestern also has a significant special teams edge in this game. Ohio St. fits into a Conference Championship situation that is 0-10 ATS. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Buffalo offense is led by Jeret Patterson who gained over 1000 yards despite a shortened 5 game season, and scored 18 TDs. Most of those stats cane against some horrific run stop units in Bowling Green, Kent St., and Akron where the Bulls ran for 1,339 yards. Those numbers were not nearly as good as the 2 better run defenses they saw in N. Illinois and Miami,O. The Bulls ran for just 5.0 yards per attempt. Ball St. allowed just 4.6 yards per attempt, so the Bulls should not be able to run all over the Ball St. defense. Buffalo is not so good on the defensive side of the ball and Ball St. averages 33.6ppg and should be able to stay in this game. The hype on Buffalo has allowed this line to creep upward, and the value here is on Ball St.