Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over.

The Nevada Wolfpack has been dealt a bad hand for their Bowl game. They lost 3 defensive players to suspension and 2 are DB`s further enhancing the mismatch already in place with a high octane Ohio U. passing attack. A 4th defensive starter will miss the 1st half and a 5th is questionable. While the weather is usually an issue in Boise, ID. in January it will not today as the temperature will be 50 degrees with light winds. Ohio St. duel threat QB Nathan O`Rourke is going to be difficult to handle, and with a lack of depth on defense, the Wolfpack could be wilting in the 4th quarter. Ohio also fits a 25-5 ATS Bowl situation based in part by their poor ATS mark this season. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The story at Indiana is a great one. Indiana has win 8 games for the 1st time since 1993, and the program has never won 9. That looks and sounds great but here is the Hoosiers reality. They did mot neat a single Bowl eligible team all season, and the combined record of their opponents in their 7 wins vs FBS teams is 31-66. They will be up against a lot more than that tonight with an equally motivated Tennessee team that started the season ugly at 1-4 but they proceeded to go 6-1 in the rugged SEC. Tennessee has the edge from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and with both teams motivated, look for the talent to win out. Make the play on Tennessee.

It was a very strong year for the Cincinnati Bearcats, but the ending to this point has been painful. They lost each of their last 2 games to Memphis and should be in an ornery mood for this one. the calling card for Cincinnati is defense and Boston College who ran the ball all season will have to replace A.J. Dillon and his 1,685 yards as he sits out to prepare for the NFL draft. BC is also missing fired coach as Rich Gunnell will take over the play-calling. The BC defense has been poor all season and without their best offensive player will find it tough to keep up vs a very strong Cincinnati defense. make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under.

Matt Rhule has now become an elite coach. he turned a pathetic Temple program around and has now transformed a Baylor program ridden with filth into a power. he has an incredible record getting his team prepared when his team is the weaker one in the fight. His coaching career shows 4 winning seasons and playing as a dog, in those 4 years, his team is 13-10 SU and 20-3 ATS. That becomes 13-7 SU and 19-1 ATS when not a dog of more than 14 points. His team has outscored opponents by 5.6 points per game to an average line of 6. Make the play on Baylor

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a big win vs Utah putting together perhaps their best game of the season. They have 2 losses coming against Auburn and Arizona St. Oregon played very well in the Auburn game and Utah game, their biggest physical tests of the season. They have a sure 1st round pick in the NFL draft at QB in Hebert. The Wisconsin defense recorded 4 shutouts in their first 6 games but took a step back when the competition got stiffer but is still very good. I think Oregon has the better "A" game and a better offense.  teams that come into a Bowl game off winning a Championship game vs a team losing a Championship game tend to excel as they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. The Pac-12 has struggled of late in Bowl games, but in this spot they have excelled:

game type = BG and conference in [P12 , P10] and month = 1 and line >= -6 and line 6 and o:wins < 13 and season > 1982 and oA(points) > 30

SU:19-5-0 (12.96, 79.2%)Teaser Records

ATS:22-2-0 (13.08, 91.7%)

Make the play on Oregon.

It has been a long time since Alabama has not played in the playoffs or BCS Championship. Bowls are a lot about motivation, and it is hard to see this Alabama team bringing a full tank to this game. They will be without 2 elite defenders that have decided to skip and get ready for the NFL draft. Anytime a team faces the Crimson Tide it is motivating all unto itself and I expect a big effort from a very good Michigan team. This Alabama defense is pretty good, but at the same time, it has allowed more points than any Alabama team since 2008 and will be missing their best 2 defenders. Michigan has a great "A" game which was seen in a blowout win vs Notre Dame and I fully expect to see it here. Make the play on Michigan.

There is a lot to unpack for this Bowl game. There are a lot of defections on both sides heading to the NFL that will not play. There are coaching changes deep into both staffs. What there is here is the reputation and pride that has driven Florida St. in Bowl games almost forever. This energy is tough to go against, so I won't, I will embrace it. 

game type = BG and team = FLST and o:WP < 91 and line >= -10

SU:18-4-1 (9.13, 81.8%)Teaser Records

ATS:20-3-0 (8.09, 87.0%)

Florida St. is the King of Bowl domination at 20-3 ATS as ling as they are not a 10 point favorite or more, and their opponent is not elite and has a winning percentage of less than .910. More recently they are 15-1 ATS in this spot, with the only ATS loss coning by 1/2 of a point. Make the play on Florida St.

The Kentucky ground game has devastated their last 3 opponents to the tune of 1,380 yards in their last 3 games. That is an average of 460 yards per contest. It might be a lot tougher in this one as with no threat in the passing game and against one of the best-run stop units in the country in Virginia Tech loading the box, yards aren't going to come easy. The bigger problem is if they get behind they have little to offer in the passing game. Tech has an elite passing game and should be able to move the chains effectively. Kentucky is in an awful Bowl situation which is 7-41 ATS, which is based in part on their recent ATS prowess. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

This game fits a situation I love. When a team gives up from 40 to 64 points in their last game before their Bowl and are from a P5 conference other than the SEC, they are 25-53 ATS (1-12 ATS lately). Make the play on Florida.

This is for a chance to play for the National Championship. If you look at these teams statistically they are pretty much a dead heat. If you go strictly by the eye test LSU has been playing lights out, and Oklahoma isn't scoring at the rate they were earlier in the season. each game provides a unique challenge, and there will be a lot more pressure on LSU here as a2 TD favorite to get it done. Oklahoma has lost key players to suspension and injury, but I don't think that will matter much. If there is a vulnerability to this LSU team it is a very good running QB. They struggled vs Ole Miss allowing 400+ rushing yards, and also against Texas. Alabama has a power running game as well and in those 3 games, the Tigers allowed a total of 123 points or 41ppg. Oklahoma has all of that and more with Jalen Hurts who was responsible for 50 TDs all by himself. Hurts not only passes for 11 yards per attempt, but he has also run for 1,255 yards and 18 TDs. There is speed and game-breakers all over the field. The Sooners also have a kicker that is 17-17 and has range beyond 50 yards. Edwards-Helaire is a big deal. he is the entire running game for the Tigers and he is hobbling some and not 100% and his status is questionable. The Sooners have been big dogs of 10 or more just 3 times since 2013 and have won 2 of them and covered them all including a 14 point win vs Alabama as a -16.5 point favorite. Despite facing top defensive teams in the 3 games, the Sooners scored 112 points or 37.3ppg. Those were much better defenses than LSU, by far. yes, Oklahoma has not scored nearly as well in their last 4 games, but the yards have been there (477 yds per game), against much better defenses than LSU. Just remember this. Since October 26, 1996, Oklahoma is 24-4 SU and 27-1 ATS if they score 30+ points as long as they are not a favorite of -3.5 points or more. The only loss was as a +3 dog in overtime, so they even out-played that line in regulation. Look at that straight-up number. That is with no games as a favorite of more than 3 and includes 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog and 4-1 SU! Of course, there is no guarantee they will score 30 points, certainly loke their chances. Make the play on Oklahoma. 

A lot of could have beens for the Iowa St. Cyclones. this is a much better team than the 7-5 record would have you believe. They lost 1 point games vs Iowa, and Oklahoma, and a 2 point game to Baylor. The Baylor and Oklahoma losses were on the road. Their last 2 Bowl games resulted in a 1 point win and a 2 point loss. This team could easily be 10-2. Notre Dame does not do well in Bowl games as they are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they have had 8 or more wins. Cyclones are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 as a dog. Notre Dame fits a Bowl situation that is 7-41 ATS as well. make the play on Iowa St.

This is the best Memphis team ever at 12-1 and they earned a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face Penn St. They are facing some difficult circumstances however as Mike Norvell left for the Florida St. job and took DC Adam Fuller with him. There is no one left on the staff that has ever called plays before. They will also have a game plan devised by those never having made one on their own. They will face a very quick Penn St. team that has the best defense by far they will have seen all season. Penn St. was down by 4 at Ohio St. before losing by 11 in the Buckeyes closest call of the season. Memphis did not have nearly as challenging of a schedule as they were favored by 9.5 points or more in 9 of their games and did not play as an underdog all season. This is the caliber team they have not seen this year that does well in Bowl games (18-12 ATS). Make the play on Penn St.

Bowl teams that are 6-6 or worse and facing a team better than 6-6 to a line of +2 or more but less than +11 are:

game type = BG and WP 50 and line >= 2 and line

This game fits a horrible situation against USC:

game type = BG and ats streak >= 3 and ats streak < 10 and line > -7 and line < 5 and wins < 11 and month = 12

SU:34-69-0 (-4.79, 33.0%)Teaser Records

ATS:29-74-0 (-5.98, 28.2%)

play against a bowl team on an ats streak of 3-9 games of they are not a -7 point favorite or more or a dog of +5 points or more in December Bowls providing they have fewer than 11 wins.

make the play on Iowa.

Oklahoma St. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will play after sitting out the last 2 games with a thumb injury. make no mistake about motivation here, Mike Gundy comes to Bowl games to win. His team has won 3 straight Bowl games and 7 of 9 averaging 36.8ppg in the process, with all 9 games vs P5 opponents. While Texas A&M had an impossible schedule they failed to beat any team this season with a winning record. Oklahoma St. os 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a dog, and Gundy usually has a trick play or 2 for an added edge. make the play on Oklahoma St.

It has been a long way back for North Carolina who will be playing in a Bowl game for the first time since 2016. They also enter on a 3 game Bowl losing skid. They dusted off their former coach Mack Brown and he has already impacted a program by winning 6 games after the previous 2 years saw just 5 combined wins. His most recent stint in Texas saw him win 9 of his last 12 Bowls and he won his last 2 when at NC. That is a huge difference from Temple 1st year coach Rod Carey who went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in 6 Bowls at N. Illinois. (average loss 25ppg). This game will come down to the NC elite passing offense vs the Temple elite passing defense. the Temple defense really struggled against the 2 elite passing offenses they saw this season in SMU and Central Florida where they gave up 1,279 yards and 108 points. The Temple offense really struggles, and Temple has proven to struggle against elite passing attacks. Temple also facing a situation that is 29-74 ATS that in part plays against a Bowl team ob an extended ATS winning streak. Make the play on North Carolina.

This is a big deal for E. Michigan to play in a Bowl close to home in Detroit. Coach Chris Creighton has completely changed the culture at E. Michigan. His teams have won 25 games over the last 4 years something that took 11 years to do previously. The 4-year record shows 30-17-3 ATS. he will take on a Pittsburgh team that is 7-5 on the season but has been outscored by opponents. Pitt has no offense and averaged 20ppg but does have a solid defense. The main factor here is motivation. Pitt seemed to play the top teams on its schedule tough losing to Penn St. by just 7 and beating Central Florida. here is a pretty glaring stat. The Panthers have not won a game all season by more than 10 points and here they are as nearly a 2 TD favorite vs a motivated team. A December Bowl team that averages fewer than 38.5ppg and is a favorite of -8 or more is 32-57 ATS. There is also a 23-5 ATS situation that plays on certain Bowl teams with a poor ATS record. make the play on E. Michigan.

It is hard to see that Miami, Fla. has any motivational interest in this game. They finished the season a disappointing 6-6 despite the fact that the average line in their games has been as a -10 point favorite and this will be their 10th time as a favorite. They have never been a dog of more than a TD all season as well. A favorable schedule, and unfavorable results. They lost 3 games outright as a favorite of -10, -18, and -18.5, and won another by 5 points as a -29 point favorite. making things worse are a pair of defensive ends sitting out that combined for 9.5 sacks, and a LB that was 2nd on the team in tackles and made 12.5 tackles for a loss. They will also be without WR Jeff Thomas. LA Tech will be playing an hour from home, making the 1 hour trip due west in I-20 and will have the fans behind them. Tech lost to Texas in the opener 45-14 but the yards show 413-454 and J'mar Smith threw for 340 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt. Speaking of Smith, Tech has won 9 straight with him at QB, as 2 losses came while he served a 2 game suspension. A win here will gibe LA Tech 10 wins, a school record. This is the 6th straight Bowl appearance by LA Tech, and they have won the previous 5 and are now 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowls. They fit a Bowl situation that is 55-29 ATS as well. Motivated dog vs an unmotivated favorite here. Make the play on LA Tech.

High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line

Once again the Boise St. Broncos have had a stellar season at 12-1. perhaps the storyline here is their former coach Chris Peterson will be coaching his last game for Washington. This just doesn't have the look of the typical Boise St. power. They have used 3 QB's this season and the schedule was ranked in the 80s this season. These teams are both pretty even from the line of scrimmage but Washington did so to a much more difficult schedule. The biggest edge may be motivation and special teams here for Washington. Washington is ranked top 15 in special teams, and Peterson has been known for successful trickery in Bowl games and his team will want to send him off with a win. make the play on Washington.

Butch Davis has turned the FIU program around as this will be the Panthers 3rd straight Bowl game and won for the 1st time last year. That win came without QB James Morgan, who has returned and has to be highly motivated to play in a Bowl after missing it last season. This is not only an experienced Bowl team they ranked in the top 20 of experienced teams coming into the season. They needed an impossible win over Miami, Fla. and got the huge upset. Arkansas St. is food offensively but the defense is one of the worst in the country after losing 4 defensive linemen starters to injury over the course of the season. looking at important stat matchups most favor FIU and they are a dog coming into this game, and I believe the wrong team is favored. The history of 6-6 Bowl teams that want to finish with a winning season has been 44-13 ATS in this spot. Play on FIU.

Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under.

The Kent St. Golden Flashes finished the season needing to win their last 3 games to qualify for a Bowl and did so. They are the only Bowl team to have done so. Kent St. took on an aggressive out of conference schedule against Auburn, Arizona St., and Wisconsin. This team has come a long way after going 2-10 each of the last 2 years. The other 9 Kent St. games saw then not lose by more than 7 points in any of them. Utah St. is led by QB Jordan Love who has entered the NFL draft bit will play in the Bowl game. Love had a horrible season as last year he threw 28 TDs to 5 INTs and this year 17 TDs to 16 INTs. A Bowl team that is .500 or less and facing a team that is better than .500 to a line of +2 to +10.5 is 44-13 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Kent St.

The weather is supposed to be rainy here, but that won't impact these teams much as they both will be running the ball on nearly every down. Army has won 3 straight times in this series but things have changed. Ar,y has just 5 wins, 2 of which came vs FCS teams. Their stats vs FBS opponents are horrible. Navy has lost just twice and both losses cane vs ranked teams. there is one flaring stat about this rivalry. When the Army has been +5.5 points or more they are 0-18-1 SU and 7-12 ATS. When they have been posted at fewer than +5.5 points they are 15-5 SU and 9-10-1 ATS. Army has been 0-8 ATS in this series when posted from +7.5 to +14. make the play on Navy.

If Georgia didn't throw up a stinker vs South Carolina and came into this game 12-0 we would be looking at a much different line and prediction here by most. Everybody loves a high powered offense, and LSU has certainly been that and more. While the Georgia offense has been less than stellar of late, the LSU defense has allowed 37+ points to 4 teams. That in most cases does not typify a Championship team. They are going to have to score plenty to cover this game vs a Georgia defense that is the best they have seen. The closest thing to it was Auburn and the Bayou Bengals struggled to score just 23 points. Georgia allows just 10.4ppg so piling up the points in this one does not look to be the case by the LSU offense. Georgia can run the ball very well with a bevy of backs, not just Swift, and Fromm has 21 TDs to just 3 INTs on the season. A team in a Championship game that averages better than 47 points a game taking on a team allowing fewer than 21 a game are 3-5 SU to an average line of -12.6. LSU is generating 67% of the bets but the line has not moved. Make the play on Georgia.

The Baylor Bears have had a great season at 11-1. They had this Oklahoma team on the ropes with a 25 point lead and blew it. Everything that could have gone wrong for Oklahoma did. First, it was the only game of the year that WR Ceedee Lamb missed. Lamb is a game-changer as he has caught TD passes in 9 of 11 games, with all 9 coming from outside the red-zone. Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307 in that game, which would be indicative of a 17-20 point win on the road. Oklahoma fumbled 5 times in the game and lost 2 but the 3 that they recovered altered the drives. They punted 1 time in the hame so the only way the offense was stopped was by themselves. QB Jaylen Hurts has been here before, as have most of the OU players. This will be a lot of pressure for Baylor as none of these kids have played in a game of this magnitude before, and the moment could be too big for them. What most don't see is the strides the OU defense has made allowing fewer than 300 yards a game in their last 3. The Sooners are now 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a single-digit favorite and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Championship games as a favorite of fewer than 10 points, the only failed cover was by a single point. make the play on Oklahoma.

Utah certainly deserves to be in the playoff hunt. This is a well balanced very good offense, that also happens to have one of the best defenses in the country. This game is going to be played in the rain and wind, and Utah allows just 56 rushing yards a game, which will be crucial in this contest. Utah has also held all 12 opponents below their season average in total yards. Utah on average has held opponents to 170 fewer yards than their season average. If you look at the 8 common opponents these teams shared, Utah outscored these opponents by 25ppg and outgained them by well over 200 yards per game. Oregon was +16ppg and just +84 yards. Oregon is just 3-12 SU and ATS in their last 15 as a dog. Think there is a greater distance between these teams and Utah will not call off the dogs, as they look for style points. Make the play on Utah.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have steadily improved all season. The defense has become elite and they are off shutouts in each of their last 2 games. Hokies defense allowed 29.6ppg through their first 7 and 9.5ppg in their last 4. The offense has also taken off scoring 35.4ppg in their last 7. Virginia has a pretty good defense but the offense has held this team back all season against good defensive teams. The defense has also been shaky over the last 4 games. Tech fits a 59-31 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Wyoming is 6-4 on the season, but recent injuries have hit this team hard. They have lost a lot from an offense that wasn't very good, to begin with. QB Sean Chambers was lost with a knee injury. His replacement Tyler Vander Waal has dropped the passing yards per attempt from 7.6 to 5.7. That is significant, and Vander Waal has just 1 TD pass to 3 INTs. Where it hurts, even more, is in the running game. Chambers was the main cog rinning for 567 yards at 6.3 yards per carry and 10 TDs. Lost as well are running backs, Titus Swen and Trey Smith. The 2 combined for 111-564 at 5.2 per tote. The workload has been on Xazavian Valladay, but despite 869 yards, he has been the least effective at 4.8 per carry. he is also dealing with a knee issue. Colorado St. dealt with the loss of QB Collin Hill, but Patrick O'Brien has been equally effective. Colorado St. is 4-6 but winning the line of scrimmage as they average 69 more yards a game than their opponents, while despite the 6-4 record Wyoming is upside down generating -26 yards a game. Wyoming generally has a home-field advantage with the altitude, but Colorado St. is used to that playing at high altitude themselves. This one goes to the wire, and the points are big. Make the play on Colorado St.

It appears that UCLA is surging after starting the season 1-5 as the Bruins have won 3 straight games. I'm not in that camp. Looking at their last 6 opponents all in the P-12 they have collectively allowed around 30ppg. Utah is on a completely different level defensively. They allow 246 yards a game on the season and just 12.2ppg. The offense is not too shabby either at 446 yards per game. Overall the Utes are out-gaining opponents by 200 yards a contest. This game will be played in altitude which is another advantage for the Utes. This game also fits a situation that is 87-34 ATS. Make the play on Utah.

The Georgia St. Panthers have taken a big blow as QB Dan Ellington has been declared out with a knee injury vs Appalachian St. Ellington's 18 TDs to just 4 INTs will be missed as he will be replaced by QB Cornelious Brown. Brown is just 8-23 on the season for 3.5 yards per attempt with 0 TDs and 1 INT. he will be over-matched by a strong Appalachian St. defense. Moreover, the pretty good Georgia St. running game, featured the running ability of Ellington as well. The lack of a threat in the passing game is going to allow Appalachian St. to load up the box and stop the running game cold. The Panthers defense is awful so Appalachian St. should score often here, and should win this one big! Make the play on Appalachian St.

The Akron Zips have certainly lived up to their name this season at 0-9 SU and ATS. They have not found the end-zone in 4 straight games. The 4 games saw them going against poor defenses in 3 of them that stopped them cold and while E. Michigan isn't a food defensive team, they are considerably better than the 3 poor defenses that kept the Zips from crossing the goal line. This isn't as good of an EMU team as we have seen the past few years, but they are good enough, and at 4-5 on the season this is a mandatory win if they seek Nowl eligibility once again. Make the play on E. Michigan.

Boise St. will host 6-2 Wyoming in a crucial Mountain West tilt. Wyoming has really battled the injury bug, and none hurt more than losing QB Sean Chambers last week for the season. Chambers was not an accurate passer, but an effective one. Where he will be missed the most is the running game as he rushed for 567 yards on 90 carries. The Cowboys will also be without RB Trey Smith (44-227), and RB Titus Swen (67-337). That is 57% of the carries, and Chambers's running threat is what drove the running game as Wyoming is a weak passing team. Chambers will be replaced by Tyler Vander Waal who played a lot last year but completed just 48% of his passes 5 TDs and 4 INTs. he also was -63 yards rushing, so the rushing yards are going to be tough to come by as Boise St. puts 8-9 in the box and dares them to throw. Vander Waal is just 4-16 this season. Boise St. freshman QB Hank Bachmeier has been solid, throwing for 9.2 yards per attempt. The weak part of the Wyoming defense is against the pass. Additionally, Wyoming will be missing 2 starting tackles from the offensive line. Hard to see Wyoming scoring much at all here. Make the play on Boise St.

Saturday November 9th, 2019

LA-Lafayette is probably better than their 6-2 record. They have lost only to Miss St., and Appalachian St. They are above average on both sides of the ball, and net out at +1.1 yard per play vs opponents. Coastal Carolina has had stat-boosting games vs UMass and Norfolk St. where they piled up close to 1200 yards in the 2 games. Otherwise, this team is left with numbers suggesting they are well below average. Louisiana is a good road team as they are 45-25 ATS in road conference games in their last 70 including 18-5 ATS if they gained 475+ yards in their previous game. Tougher schedule, much better team. Make the play on Louisiana.

This game is part of my mega totals situation. make the play on the under.

This game fits the mega total system. Make the play on the under. (GASO/APPALACHIAN ST.)

These teams are coming in with completely opposite results from a week ago. UCLA was stomping Stanford while Arizona was crushed 21-3 vs Utah. I think these results have pushed some value toward Arizona St. The Bruins have won 2 games all season. Last week they faced a 3rd team QB vs Stanford and it showed. Their other good showing defensively on the season was a 20-17 loss to Arizona who was without Khalil Tate. remember against Oklahoma, Washington St., and Oregon St. the Bruins gave up 53.3ppg. This team is yielding 9 yards per pass attempt on the season. That is bad news bs Arizona St. who is averaging 8.4 and is well above average, and that will be the biggest mismatch on the field in this game. UCLA's lone other wins outside of Stanford and their 3rd team QB last week was to Washington St. They won by 4 points, despite allowing 720 yards! The reason they won is Washington St. turned the ball over 6 times. Arizona St. has a very strong defense, and the mediocre UCLA offense is not going to be able to move the ball here. Make the play on Arizona St. 

The Penn St. Nittany Lions have their eyes on a National Championship. They have opened the season at 7-0 and will take on Michigan St. Penn St. has dominated opponents this season as they have out-gained them 439-282. That is the big picture. There is another hidden picture that says this team may be over-rated by their 7-0 record and getting a lot of TV coverage. Penn St.'s 3 toughest games came vs Pitt, Iowa, and Michigan. All 3 have a strong defense just like Michigan St. Penn St. was out-gained by these 3 opponents by 1169-966 or on a per-game basis 390-322. While the season shows they out-gain opponents by 157 yards per game, the better defensive teams have out-gained then by 68 yards per game. Michigan St. was pulverized by Ohio St. and Wisconsin 72-10, but both those teams are better, and both were on the road. This one is with 2 weeks to prepare and no game next week either. A bye sandwich for Sparty. Those 3 opponents from above also ran on average 13 more plays a game because the Penn St. offense could not sustain drives. Penn St. is odd 2 straight punishing games while this is the only game for Michigan St. over a 27 day period. They will be fresh, focused, and home. Then this on Michigan St.:

Home dog of +6 or more  12-8 SU to avg line of +10.7 on average won by +2.7

ATS same situation 16-4.  I predict an upset. Make the play on Michigan St.

Make the play on Michigan St. 

This has become a huge rivalry game as Texas heads to play TCU. Texas comes in at 5-2 on the season, and for a team with National Title aspirations coming in, they have bot quite lived up to the billing. This team returned just 3 starters on defense and is in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per play, hardly the hallmark of a National Championship contender. The offense has had to bail them out of trouble all season, and last week allowed 48 points to Kansas. They might not be able to do the same vs TCU. The Frogs signature under Gary Paterson has been defense and his team allows just 281 yards a game and just 260 at home at 4.1 yards per play. TCU is out-gaining opponents by 160 yards per game, and Texas just 11. Texas has allowed 30 or more points to all but Rice and LA Tech (37.6ppg to the 5 P5 teams they have faced).  TCU prefers to run the ball and will certainly do that here to keep the Texas offensive possessions limited. The Horn's have allowed 225+ rushing yards to 3 of their last 4 opponents. They are off 2 physical games, and now face a very physical defense and with injuries piling up, trouble looms. make the play on TCU.

The Florida St. Seminoles have played a tough schedule to get to 3-3. This team despite the look is 1.2 yards a play better than the schedule of opponents they have played. They suffered 2 of their 3 losses to Boise St. and Clemson. Wake Forest lost for the 1st time this season to Louisville to fall to 5-1 on the season. That puts them in a huge letdown spot. Any team starting 5-0 or better and suffered their 1st loss of the season in their previous game by -14 points or fewer and face a team greater than .250 but less than.670 are 41-82-2 ATS. QB Jamie Newman left the last game with a shoulder injury, and may not play, but if he does he won't be 100%.

Virginia comes into this game with the better record 4-2 as North Carolina is 3-3. Don't be fooled by the records as North Carolina has played one of the nation's most difficult schedules. They have impressive wins over SC and Miami, Fla. They also lost by 1 point vs unbeaten Clemson, and 1 point to unbeaten Appalachian St. Their 3rd loss was by 6 points to 1 loss Wake Forest. This team is vastly improved since last season. Virginia Tech has lost to BC and Duke and 3 of their 4 wins were against Furman, Old Dominion, and FCS team Rhode Island. Despite the weak schedule, the Hokies are average on both sides of the ball. The NC defense and offense are both significantly above average despite the tough schedule. Tech has the better record coming into this game, but if they played the NC schedule they would likely be 1-5, and if NC played their schedule there is a very good chance they would be 6-0. Make the play on North Carolina.

The Boston College Eagles suffered a huge setback last week when starting QB Anthony Brown went down with a leg injury. He will be lost for the season. His replacement Dennis Grosel went 9-24 vs Louisville last week at 4.6 yards an attempt. Brown was generating 8.1 and had 9 RDs and just 2 INTs. The Eagles passing attack is not only going to take a hit, but the AJ Dillon led running game as well. The Wolfpack is going to load the box to dare NC to throw into their well-above-average secondary. This could lead to many 3 and outs and turnovers. The BC defense is horrible and while NC State is no better than average on offense, they should be able to move the ball against BC, as they are probably going to be on the field a lot more than usual further exposing them. Don't think the odds-makers have adjusted enough for Brown's injury. Make the play on NC State.

Saturday October 12th, 2019

  Top Side Play · [193] Charlotte 49ers
    Sat Oct 12th, 2019 7:00pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Analysis: The San Jose St. Spartans head to Nevada to take on the Wolfpack. There are some similarities between these teams. Both enter the game at 3-2, and each has knocked off a P5 team, with Nevada taking down Purdue 34-31 and San Jose St. taking down Arkansas 31-24. The Spartan`s win was eyeopening as they were a 3 TD underdog and went for over 500 yards for the game. Coach Brent Brennan`s team is a ball-hawking defense that has turned the opponent over 15 times in 5 games. San Jose St. was 3-22 SU over its last 2 seasons but signs that Brennan has this team on an up-tick were seen late last season when the Spartans closed the season 4-1-1 ATS and they are 4-1 ATS this season and are clearly a team under the radar. Senior QB Josh Love has played all 4 years and started the last 3 and has become very good. He has reached career highs with 62% completions, and 7.8 yards per attempt. He has thrown just 1 INT in 181 attempts on the season. Nevada has one of the worst pass defenses in the country allowing 8.6 yards per attempt and I expect Love to have a huge game. The Nevada offense is also very weak averaging just 4.6 yards per play on the season. Nevada is making a QB change as Malik Henry a JUCO transfer will be under center as they try to infuse a sluggish offense. I like the matchup here with Love vs Henry at QB as well as the defensive edge by the Spartans. Make the play on San Jose St.

Georgia St. opened the season with a huge upset at Tennessee as a 26 point underdog. That big win has been tainted by the fact that Tennessee is not a good team. That was on full display as they have since gone to W. Michigan and lost by almost 50 points and barely escaped FCS opponent Furman at home by 6. What interests me here is Arkansas St. QB Logan Bonner was injured and last week former Alabama recruit and QB Layne Hatcher was better than Bonner last week putting up freat numbers vs Troy in an upset win where the Red Wolves scored 50. The Georgia St. pass defense is really poor so another big game by Hatcher is in the cards. The Arkansas St. defense is 0.4 yards better than the offenses of their schedule of opponents, and I don't see Georgia St. being able to keep up. Arkansas St. has by far played the tougher schedule, and should pile up the points here. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Purdue Boilermakers have had trouble keeping up in the rugged Big-10 and heading to a revitalized Penn St. program is not what the doctor ordered. Penn St. came into this season wondering how they would do with QB Sean Clifford as he had just 7 pass attempts his entire career. That question has been answered as Clifford is completing 66% of his passes at an ultra-elite 11.1 yards per attempt with 9 TDs and just 1 INT. He also is running at 5.2 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions rushing attack has seen 7 different players score a rushing TD. Purdue appeared set on offense behind QB Elijah Sindelar at 64.3% and 8.7 pards per attempt, but he is out with a collarbone injury and Jack Plummer has fared poorly at 51.4% at 6.1 yards per attempt and 3 TDs and 4 INTs. Making matters worse is the loss of the electric Rondale Moore at WR with a leg injury. This leaves the Purdue offense at extreme peril vs a very strong Penn St. defense. Home favorites off a 35+ point win vs an opponent that allowed more than 28 points last game, in which both teams scored more than a combined 57 points are 189-122-9 ATS 60.8%. When the line is in this range at -23.5 to -30.5 that goes to 44-22-7 ATS.

The Army program has risen after many years of futility, so at 3-1 on the season ot looks like they are strong again. That is not the case when you dig down into the numbers. Army (not including the Morgan St. game is averaging just 4.6 yards per carry which is very low for them. The defense is also down a notch and they have not faced a schedule of teams that run the ball nearly as well as Tulane. Willie Fritz has Tulane on a major upward trajectory, but it isn't seen by many as they have been bad for quite a few years now. The one thing that the triple-option does is make an opponent have to prepare for something they rarely if ever see. That is not the case here. Tulane has seen and defended the option 6 times since 2015 and has defended it extremely well. Tulane has defended 325 rushing plays and allowed just 1303 yards or 4 yards per carry. Those were poor Tulabe teams that combined to go 19-29 SU since 2015. Tulane has been considerably above average defending the run this season while generating 6 yards per attempt with their own running game. I think there will be a lot of running in this game as both teams put it on the ground for a combined average of 105 times per contest. Tulane has the edge in what will be a field position game and also has a much better passing game for more balance. Make the play in Tulane.

If there was ever a game that has been circled on a schedule it is tonight's Cincinnati Bearcats game vs Central Florida. Last year Cincinnati went into ESPN's Game Day to play in front of a frenetic crowd, with a freshman QB in Desmond Ritter, and the moment proved too big for him. Ritter has grown up since them and is continuing his success as an experienced sophomore now. While the Bearcats were brutalized on the scoreboard 38-13 they were in the game statistically. They were out-gained by just 23 total yards and ran the ball 55 times for 252 yards. C. Florida has a very strong secondary, but have proven vulnerable to the run. Cincinnati has a strong rushing attack, and will use it to best attack the Knight's defense, and keep the clock moving to keep the explosive C. Florida offense off the field. You have to go all the way back to December of 2016 to find the last time C. Florida was held to fewer than 30 points. That streak is going to end at some point, could it be tonight? This time the freshman QB is playing for UCF, and his 2 road outings vs FAU, and Pittsburgh were shaky. He will face a raucous prime time crowd, and the best defense he has seen all season. Cincinnati allowed 42 points at Ohio St. ( a season-low by the Buckeyes), while allowing 14 or fewer in each of their other 3 games. The Bearcats have by far played the tougher schedule. The Cats opponents have completed just 50% of all passes. The Cats will bring it tonight. Make the play on Cincinnati. 

The Hawaii Warriors will head to Mackey Stadium in Reno, Nevada to take on the Nevada Wolfpack. Both of these teams are 3-1 on the season, and it is a big deal to come out of this game at 4-1 for the winner. Hawaii has struggled as a program over the last 7+ years as they are not only 32-61 SU they are 34-55-3 ATS. They are in a tough spot here in Nevada. Most don't consider Nevada as a cold-weather place but the temperature is expected to be in the 30s. That is a far cry from the beach and 80s. Hawaii likes to throw a lot (45 times a game), and the cold weather leads to a slippery hardball, and it may impact their offense. Nevada has win 7 of the last 8 here and covered 6. The Wolf Pack has covered 9 of their last 12 at home, and remember Mackey Stadium is almost a mile high, and Hawaii is not a very deep team. Make the play on Nevada.

Wake Forest is off to a 4-0 start on the season for just the 5th time since 1980, but the 3rd time in the last 4 years. Unfortunately, the last 2 saw them finish 7-11 after the 4-0 start. Boston College immediately became a "stay away" from team with a 20 point loss to Kansas. This isn't the Kansas everyone has beaten up lately. This is a Les Miles Kansas team and he has his fingerprints all over this team already. I think BC got caught thinking they had an easy win and found out otherwise. BC has won exactly 7 games in 5 of their last 6 years, and can't seem to get over the hump. This isn't a team that is going to finish much better than those teams, and Wake Forest is getting a bit too much respect right now, and BC after losing to Kansas got right with a 30-16 win at Rutgers last week, and the Kansas game has them very underrated right now. Make the play on Boston College.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have long struggled in the SEC. They just don't seem to be able to recruit at the same level as their conference foes. They are however 21-4 SU vs the MAC, Mountain West, and C-USA. (10-2 vs the MAC). Overall they are 17-8 ATS in those 25 games. They currently own a 7 game winning streak vs the MAC with 6 of those by 11 points or more. They are 0-3 to start the season but the losses have come to LSU, Georgia, and Purdue. I would expect they will be all out for a win in this one. B. Illinois is 1-2 on the season and the defense has been poor and the offense mediocre. This is going to be a tough spot for the Huskies who have not played at home since August 31, and won't until October 5. Make the play on Vanderbilt.

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a surprising 3-0 start. They opened the season in impressive fashion with a 37-31 win over Missouri. The issue at hand here which offers a lot of hidden value is Wyoming is not what the record looks like. They were out-gained by Missouri 537-389 bit held a +3 margin in turnovers. They are 3-0 bit have been out-gained by every opponent they have faced and bot barely, but nu over 100 yards per game. This is a one-dimensional team that runs the ball almost every play because QB Chambers is completing 39% of his passes. They don't even have a receiver that has 65 yards receiving on the season. Tulsa is going to put 7-8 in the box and dare them to throw it. Moreover, Wyoming has had to defend 19 more plays a game than their opponent. Opponents have run off 240 plays and Wyoming 184. Tulsa had a big problem last year as they had no QB that could move the offense. Enter Baylor transfer Zach Smith and suddenly the Golden Hurricane have a passing attack. This team led Oklahoma St. at the half, but allowed TDs of 90 and 75 yards, but otherwise went toe-to-toe with them. They also lost to Michigan St. so the 1-2 recor is not what it looks like. Overall, Tulsa is a lot better than they appear, and Wyoming a lot worse. Make the play on Tulsa.

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

This is from my totals formula that kicks in starting week 4:

OVERALL RECORD TO THE UNDER:

387-191-13  67%   8.06  z-score

Make the play on the UNDER

Michigan St. lost a tough one last week 10-7 at home vs a very underrated Arizona St. team. Michigan St. at this point of the season is seen by the public as being a one-sided team, all defense, and no offense. That is where the value lies in this game. Michigan St. has significantly under-achieved points vs the yardage the offense has generated. They have out-gained all 3 opponents by a combined 1289-794 or by 495 yards in 3 games. That just does not translate to the points they have scored. Northwestern graduated a lot of pieces from last year's team, but are pretty well stocked and the big question was at QB. That hole seemed to be filled by a highly ranked transfer from Clemson in Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to be the type of runner and passer never seen before at Northwestern, but thus far he has been a huge bust. Johnson is just 18-42 42.9% with 1 TD and 3 INTs. he has run for just 68 yards on 22 carries. Nobody runs on Michigan St. and with Northwestern lacking a strong running game, and a weak passing game, they are going to be hard-pressed to score much at all here, and in fact, I would not be surprised if the Michigan defense scores in this game. Michigan St. has an above-average offense, and the poor scoring numbers are going to change. Michigan St. is going to come in ready off a tough loss, and will bring it. make the play on Michigan St.

Last year I was on Iowa St. for weeks and won every time. It is emotionally difficult to move away from them after all that. Iowa St. was transformed when Brock Purdy took over at QB. He had a game-changer in WR Hakeem Butler, that was a deep threat always. He also had an NFL RB in David Montgomery. Those are 2 pieces that are not going to be replaced, and we saw the impact on Purdy and the Iowa St. offense against N. Iowa. The Cyclones had trouble offensively, and Purdy was frustrated all day. It took Iowa St. 3 IT's to win that one at home and they really should have lost. The eye test says the offense is going to struggle against a good defense, while the defense still looks pretty good. Iowa is a challenge as the Hawkeyes always play well defensively and come into this game having shutout 3 of their last 7 Big-10 opponents, going back to last year. Hawkeyes travel well especially as a favorite where they are 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 in this role. Iowa has a bye next week so they will let it all out here, and think that is enough vs an Iowa St. team that has to find a RB and a receiver that can stretch the field, and that looks to be absent right now. Make the play on Iowa.

Arkansas is just 6-18 in the last 2 years and for a once powerhouse football school these numbers have to change. The public may be sleeping on this team, and like we saw in Iowa St. last year when Brock Purdy was inserted as the starting QB, and the offense took off. Arkansas has an even better option and we have had a prelude to what to expect. Shockingly Ben Hicks was named the Arkansas starting QB ahead of Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel. Starkel as a freshman at A&M threw from 1800 yards with 60% completions at 8.6 tards per attempt. This guy is a big-time QB. Hicks started the season 21-45 at 46.7% and 5.4 yards an attempt. Starkel took over and went 21-29 at 72.4% 249 yards at 8.6 yards an attempt. There has been a tremendous upgrade to the Arkansas offense. Colorado St. allowed 52 points to Colorado in their opener, and many see this Arkansas team as a lot less than they really are. I'm betting that Starkel is in the process of transforming this team, with few aware. Make the play on Arkansas.

 I have been following Kansas St. social media sites all summer, and the players love Klieman, think he has put a lot of energy back into the program. The transfers Gilbert and Brown have at the very least stabilized the RB position which was bankrupt coming in. Heard nothing but praise for Thompson (QB), he is ready to take the next step up. WR's Schoen and Knowles can stretch a defense. The talent left behind is average, but the coaching and enthusiasm elevate it. Miss St. (QB ailing), no defensive pressure at all. Miss St. OL not as deep and Parker likely out, and Williams and Wilkerson (questionable). This looks like a 7 point game either way, actually, think KST can win if things go right. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Clemson Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide have dominated the NCAA Football scene for several years now. It certainly looks like that is about to occur again. There are some questions for this Clemson team. They have so many playmakers on offense it is scary. That isn't the question. The defense took a lot of key hits, losing All-Americans off the DL and 6 NFL departures in all. The entire middle of the line is gone, and would-be replacements Nyles Pinckney, and Jordan Williams both missed the spring with injuries. They have able-bodied replacements, but overall they will simply not be as good. Texas A&M has plenty of experience facing top-level competition. The Aggies got good again in 2010, and with Kellen Mond at QB, and plenty of offense themselves, they will move the ball here. Mond improved significantly year-over-year and is poised for another jump this season. Texas A&M has more than proved they can play with the big boys. They have faced a #1 ranked Alabama team 5 times and is 4-1 ATS losing by an average of just 10.1ppg. They also out-played Clemson last year in a 28-26 loss, failing on a 2 point conversion that would have forced overtime. The Aggies out-gained Clemson 501-413 had a 25-14 first down advantage, held Etienne to 44 yards, made them punt 8 times, while Mond vs a better defense passed for 430 yards 3 TDs and 0 INTs. The difference was a -2 in turnover margin, on 2 costly fumbles. The Aggies bring in a #4 ranked recruiting class of a pair of 5* and 14 four-star players. They are better than last year, but the record may not be. The schedule is the toughest in the country facing #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #6 LSU, and #10 Auburn. That is 3 games on the road vs top 6 teams. The Aggies have proven to be able to stay with top-ranked teams, and there are enough holes in the Clemson defense that they can score enough here to get the money. Make the play on Texas A&M.

The Colorado Buffalos were obe at the pinnacle of the college football world, reigning supreme in the old Big-8/Big-12 along with Nebraska and Oklahoma. things have really changed. Colorado win 10 games in 2016, but in 11 seasons sandwiched around that, they have not had a winning season, and stand at 45-102 SU and 56-84-6 ATS. last year they started 5-0, but the roof collapsed as they finished 0-7. This year looks similar to all the seasons from above where they have averaged losing by 9ppg in 147 games. Nebraska looked very poor and uninterested last week, perhaps because they have had this game circled since last year's loss to Colorado when QB Martinez had his ankle twisted in a pile-up. You can be sure the focus will be different this year. The line here is shaded by the curious poor play by Nebraska last week, and I see a team that has motivational reasons to bring the "A" game to Colorado after the perhaps dirty injury to Adrian Martinez last year. Make the play on Nebraska.

The Syracuse Orange had a breakout season winning 10 games last year for the first time since 1992. They will be remembered for taking Clemson to the wire in a heartbreaking 27-23 loss. This is going to be a much different year. The 2018 team averaged 40ppg and they looked horrific vs Liberty managing just 24 points. There is another problem. Next week they will be hosting Clemson, and one-eye will be on that game. New Syracuse Tommy Devito looked really bad against Liberty completing just 17 of 35 passes and 176 yards. There was a lot of miscommunication on the field, and they won't be able to duplicate that against Maryland or they are going to lose. While the rushing numbers look good (over 200 yards) it was generated at a subpar 4 yards a carry. Maryland now has former Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson and he is an upgrade from a year ago. teaming with star running back Anthony Mcfarland, the Terps offense will be much better. I really believe this Syracuse team is highly over-rated off of last year, and the hype machine for Clemson is already getting attention, and personally, I think they will get destroyed. Maryland is a borderline Bowl team at best, but have enough to win at home here vs a team that has no offense. Make the play on Maryland.

This game is about situations and the one that applies here is on the total. A heavy chalk to a low total almost always goes over the total, and the reason is that 67% if the time the heavy chalk foes over the total by themselves! These games win 82.4% of the time and cover by 11.40 points. Right now just 1 nook has the total up, but there will be more as these FBS v FCS games often put out later lines than normal.

Play on the over in a game where the line is -30 or more and the total is 48 or less:

Expert Analysis: There will not be a lot of interest in this game as Rutgers rakes on U

Expert Analysis: Arizona St. was projected low a year ago and had a great season considering. They were the only school in the country that had a 1,500-yard rusher, a 3000-yard passer, and a 1000 yard receiver. Returning is RB Benjamin who went for over 1600 yards a year ago. The Sun Devil`s are built with tremendous speed and the offensive line is going to control this game with 5 senior starters. Arizona St. had a laughable defense 2 years ago, had the youngest defense in the FBS a year ago, and now are poised to be the most intimidating group in the P-12. Jayden Daniels will br the QB, and he has the running ability and speedy talented receivers. Kent Sy. was 2-10 a year ago and has made all of 3 Bowl appearances in 99 years, and 0 wins. The Golden Flashes have played 38 games vs the likes of the SEC, ACC, and B10 and are 0-38 (11-23-1 ATS), and losing by an average score of 7.8 to 41. (5-15 ATS from 20.5 to 36). The Sun Devils averaged 43.3ppg in non-conference home games since 2009, and are 27-1 SU and 17-8 ATS in game 1 if at home. Kent St. is not a good team, and the depth is lacking which will be a major issue here. A team tends to be in lesser game shape in game number 1 and in this case, the Golden Flashes will be taking on the desert heat where the 7 PM start time projects a temperature of 100 degrees, and still 93 at game`s end. Welcome to the desert. Make the play on Arizona St.

Expert Analysis: This is a very important game for a pair of coaches that have each elevated the school they now represent. Butch Davis has led FIU to consecutive Bowl games and 17 wins in his first 2 years. Willie Fritz has succeeded everywhere he has been and in his 3 tears at Tulane, his team has improved each season. Tulane had just 1 winning season in 15 years prior to last season`s 7 wins, which included wins vs S. Florida and Memphis. Looking back at 2018 Florida International was 8-4 in the regular season, but personally, I think this team was highly over-rated. The panthers 8 wins came at the expense of teams that combined to fo 29-58, and an additional win was vs Arkansas Pine Bluff. They barely out-gained the opponents on their schedule despite the relative weakness of opponents. They have another issue as they have to rebuild their offensive line, and Tulane has some disrupters upfront and returns 8 defenders from a team that recorded 46 sacks a year ago. The strength of the Panthers is defending the pass, and Tulane likes to grind it out averaging over 200 rushing yards a game a year ago. I really like Willie Fritz, and the Green Wave will be at home here, and they should get the money here. Make the play on Tulane.

Monday January 7th, 2019

The Washington Huskies finished a disappointing 10-3 on the season. They just could not score points despite having a seasoned QB as they averaged 26.5ppg. They were carried by their defense all season. Last year they have a much better offense, with a similar defense but lost in their Bowl when Penn St. scored 35, the most they gave up all season. Two years ago their 41ppg offense was held to 7 by Alabama. They were also beaten by Auburn this season, and this team has just struggled outside the conference vs the better teams. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs the SEC, 1-6 in their last 7 vs the Big-12, and lost last year to Penn St. Bigger than any of that is my best Bowl situation that is 65-16 ATS is on the Buckeyes here. This is Urban Meyer's last game and his teams have been 55-27-1 ATS as long as he is not a favorite of -10 or more. (7-1 ATS in January). Make the play on Ohio St. 

The Kentucky defense was as good as ever this season, but they have been a one-way team all season. The Wildcats are great on defense, but the offense averaged just over 26 points a contest and in their last 5 SEC games they scored just 67 total points, or 13.4 a game. Overall in the 5 games, they managed 4.5 yards a play which is really bad. They were out-gained by 70 yards a game. The Penn St. offense scored almost 35 points a game, while their last 3 opponents combined to score a total of 20 points. Kentucky runs the ball 64% of the time, and Penn St. faced Wisconsin, Maryland, and Pitt which are 3 run-heavy offenses, and none of the 3 scored more than 10 points against them, as Penn St. forced 8 total fumbles. The defenses here are similar, but the Penn St. offense is much more explosive. Make the play on Penn St. 

The Miss St. season can be summed up rather quickly. They allowed 12ppg which is the best in the nation. The offense is another story. The top 6 defenses they played saw them score even less than that stingy defense allowed, 11.2ppg. When they played poor defenses they thrived and scored 47ppg. That is an amazing split, but unfortunately, Iowa is more like the 6 tough defenses that shut this team down. The Iowa defense is elite and allowed just 16 TDs prior to the 4th quarter all season. It is tough for a team averaging 11.2ppg vs elite defenses to cover a TD. There have only been 4 previous Bowl Games with a line of +7 or more and a total less than 45, and the dog won 2 outright and covered 3. A team entering its Bowl game that allowed their last 2 opponents less than 10 combined points us 1-15 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The ACC lacked quality at the top this season and NC State benefited from a 4 game out of conference schedule that did not include a P5 opponent and went 4-0 winning by 127 points. The SEC dominated the ACC going 7-0 ATS and included in that was 2 ATS losses by Clemson that gave up 500+ yards to A&M and 600+ to SC. Texas A&M is a lot better than their record as they lost to both Clemson and Alabama but scored 24.5ppg in the two vs the nations best defenses. Texas A&M beat Kentucky, SC, and LSU, so they beat some good teams. I think if NC State played the A&M schedule it would remain questionable if they would even be Bowl eligible. A team off 3 straight home games coming into its Bowl game. winning at least the last 2 are 12-1 ATS since 1998. Make the play on Texas A&M.

Both Michigan St. and Oregon had disappointing seasons. These programs have come to expect more. Oregon got news that QB Justin Herbert will return for his senior year. Hebert was projected as the first QB to be selected in the draft. Mario Cristobal will be taking over the Oregon program, and I think the coaching edge goes to Mark Dantonio as he has won and covered 5 straight Bowl games despite being an underdog in 4 of them! Oregon fits a Bowl situation that is 0-11 ATS as well as a statistical profile that is 42-82 ATS. make the play on Michigan St.