Louisville is 3-3 and while they have a powerful offense, the defense has given all of it back. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games but they have lost 2 of them. They are allowing 34.4ppg to FBS opponents. Boston College has lost 2 straight, but both the losses came against strong defensive teams, and they have averaged over 40 points per game in their 4 wins. Louisville has NC State and Clemson on deck, and their level of focus here may not be their best. Boston College lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their last 2 games. Louisville has yielded close to 500 yards a game in their 5 contests vs FBS opponents, and it is tough trusting a team in the favorite role that plays absolutely no defense. The back door is wide open here, at the least. Louisville has not relished this role as they are 10-21 ATS as a conference home favorite in their last 31 coming off a loss, and that becomes 1-10 ATS if their opponent is off 2 straight losses. Make the play on Boston College.

Hard to back a team that is 0-5 SU vs FBS teams which is the case for California. What makes it even more ironic is Cal has had a turnover advantage on the season. Colorado has had some bad games at 2-4, but one of their losses was 10-7 vs Texas A&M. I think that says they have a higher ceiling in this game. Colorado is allowing fewer than 20ppg so getting better than a TD here with the much better defense in the game is an attractive proposition. Cal has no home field advantage as they are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite failing to cover by nearly 13ppg. Cal averages just 23ppg so getting enough here with a below average offense is not an easy task. Colorado has gone 20-10 ATS as a dog under coach Karl Dorrell. Make the play on Colorado.

This game in a lot of ways is important to both teams. Wake Forest returned 20 starters, and have a dynamic QB, and come into this game 6-0. The triple option is tough for a lot of teams, but when a team has 2 weeks to prepare for it, often they do a better job. Wake can move to 7-0 with Duke next week, and a pair of wins will have the Demon Deacons at 8-0 and heading to North Carolina for a huge game. Army started 4-0 but have lost consecutive games to Ball St., and Wisconsin. Their game last week was very physical, and it may show in this game. This is a highly motivated spot for Wake to remain unbeaten, and they have beaten Army 9 of the last 11 meetings. Army has managed just 16.5ppg against Wake, so they have done a very solid job with the option, with lesser teams. I think Wake is the odds on favorite to win the ACC right now. Army has 4 wins all coming vs bad teams that have combined to go 7-19. I like Wake Forest in this one.

Northwestern had a big season a year ago, but this is not yet the type of program that can lose a lot of quality players and reload. Northwestern returned as one of the least experienced teams in the country, with just 4 starters on both sides of the ball. The best team the Wildcats have seen this season is Nebraska who beat them 56-7. Michigan is 6-0 and is a top contender for making the playoffs. The Wolverines have one of the top offenses in NCAA Football, and the defense is also rock solid. I think Michigan is going to run away with this one and cover rather easily. Make the play on Michigan.

Things couldn't be going better for the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are ranked #2 in the country and have scored 50+ points in 2 straight games. The Navy is just the opposite as things could hardly get worse. This game looks like a complete blowout, but if history has anything to say about it, then these numbers will get your attention. Anytime a military team is getting 20 or more points they are hard to cover against. The Army, Navy, and Air Force all run the triple-option which consumes clock. It makes it hard to take down big numbers. A military team getting 20 or more have logged an 81-37-4 ATS mark. That is long term, and powerful. Make the play on Navy.

The UTEP Miners are off to a sizzling 5-1 start to the season. While that sounds like a bad program turning the corner, I see a whole different picture. This team has played a schedule that ranks far below the 130 FBS teams there are, I would put them at 175 or so considering FCS teams. The 5 wins have come against Bethune Cookman, New Mexico St., New Mexico, Southern Miss, and Old Dominion. Those 5 teams are a combined -17 vs FBS teams, and the lone win has occurred because 2 of the teams played each other. UTEP despite what I consider the weakest schedule in the country, has played even at the line of scrimmage. Louisiana Tech has a 1 point loss at Miss St., a 2 point loss vs SMU, and a 7 point loss at NC State. They generated 440 yards of offense per game in those 3 losses to upper tier teams. The schedule differential is vast in this one, and it lends itself to a line that is clearly not enough. The 5 UTEP wins are vs an average opponent that ranks at the bottom of the FBS. I like Louisiana Tech in this one.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-0 start, but this team doesn't look nearly as explosive as recent editions. For the first time in many years Oklahoma has an average passing game that generates 7.9 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams allowing 8.0 to an average team. The Sooners are better suited for running the ball. TCU is not the defensive team they have trended as for many years. This is a team that has allowed 31 or more points in 4 straight games, and the Sooners should have no trouble getting to 30 here. TCU however has also scored 34 points or more in its last 4 games, so I think they have enough offense to stay inside a rather lofty number here. Make the play on TCU.

The sense of urgency has become real for Alabama after a surprise loss to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide knows another loss puts any playoff opportunity in immediate jeopardy, and Nick Saban teams are now 16-2 SU following a loss. The Tide has won by an average of 25 points per game in its last 5 off a loss, so expect a true sense of urgency in this one. Saban has certainly figured out the Mike Leach offense, as they buried Miss St. last year 41-0. It was the only time a Mike Leach team has ever been shutout. Alabama off a loss has been downgraded, while Miss St. winning last week gave them an upgrade. Alabama was a -19 point favorite vs A&M and Miss St. was +7. Add those two games together and the difference is 26 points. That shows a one week bias, and the adjustment is absurd. Alabama beat A&M at the line of scrimmage 522-379. That translates into a double-digit win. Over the last 5 seasons a home dog of 10.5 to 21 points is 14-42 ATS off a win vs a conference rival and playing a conference rival. Whatever this Alabama team has in its arsenal this season will be on display Saturday. Make the play on Alabama.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off previously unbeaten Alabama last week who was also the #1 team in the nation. That sets up a huge letdown spot for the Aggies here, who are 4-2 and not blowing teams out. The Aggies have faced 4 FBS teams and have been out-scored by them 91=83. They have 2 wins both by 3 points. Missouri is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, so they are not drawing much attention, but they certainly provide value here. The Tigers are now 0-9 ATS going back to last year, and if there is one of those games that "stinks" this week, this is the one as the Tigers are allowing 38 points and 500 yards on the season. Not a good sign when a team beats a Saban coached team as a dog and turns around to be a favorite in their next game as they are 6-9 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they scored 35 points or more in that win. This one looks ugly. Make the play on Missouri.

The Michigan Wolverines are finally achieving what the roster looks like this year. The Wolverines are clicking in all facets of the game, with an offense that is elite, and a defense that is elite. Add to that the fact that they have turned the ball over just 1 time all season, and have the 2nd best special teams in the country, and they get my #4 ranking. Nebraska has already lost 3 times to teams far below Michigan. The stats show an average of 600 yards a game vs Fordham, Northwestern, and Buffalo, which skews realistic numbers. Nebraska is also #128 in special teams and Michigan excels in that area, offering some hidden value. Michigan has the edge here on all levels, and I will make the play on Michigan.

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a terrific 4-0 start to the season. They almost lost for the first time last time on the field when they needed to rally their way to a 24-22 win. The Cowboy's offense is below average in both the running and passing game, and it is likely they fare worse in this one because the Air Force runs the ball almost all the time, and will limit the number of plays in this game with a moving clock. Wyoming's best attribute is defending the pass, which unfortunately for them is not going to come into play very often here. Air Force has been running the ball for years out of the triple-option, and may have their best running game ever. The Falcons have rushed for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. When a team is playing at home and has rushed for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games they are 83-62-2 ATS, with better subsets. I think Wyoming is a "false" 4-0, and they will be exposed in this one in a big way. Make the play on Air Force.

I am buying in on the hype around the Beavers. They will take to the Pac-12 road to take on 2-3 Washington St. The beavers are 4-1 and have won and covered 4 straight, and own big wins vs Washington, and USC. Washington St. has little to show on offense as the Cougars are averaging 17.8 points per game vs FBS competition and have turned the ball over 9 times in its last 3 games. Oregon St. has a well above average offense that steadily improves each week, and the defense is now a tick above average. This Oregon St. team is a player in the Pac-12, and a win at Washington St. will continue building the resume. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Bowling Green Falcons may be the biggest surprise of the year so far. They are now the only perfect ATS team in the country at 5-0. The bandwagon is getting full as bettors flock toward a 5-0 ATS team and has now raised the bar of expectations. This game opened at Bowling Green -12 and is now as high as -15. The Falcons were a pick-'em against Murray St. at home just 3 weeks ago, and they are now over-valued. Think about it. The Falcons average fewer than 15 points a game vs their 4 FBS opponents and have topped out at 20 in the 4 games. Akron had lopsided games vs Auburn and Ohio St. that has their stats skewed some. Just can't play Bowling Green laying more than they average. Make the play on Akron.

The media hype has pretty much embraced the quick turnaround in Sparty, as Michigan St. is off to a 5-0 start to the season. I'm not on the bandwagon but the hype machine on Michigan St., along with the bubble-bursting at Rutgers who have lost 2 straight after a 3-0 start has the line here way out of balance. Both these teams are much improved from a year ago, but Rutgers played Michigan to a 1 score game at the Big House, and were destroyed by an Ohio St. team that is my #2 team in NCAA Football. Michigan St. came away with wins vs W. Kentucky, and Nebraska, despite being out-gained by both. These teams are a lot closer than the line, and Rutgers has a chance for an outright win here. Make the play on Rutgers.

LSU got a big win at Miss St. last week. Perhaps the biggest news is that Bo Nix may not be the starting QB for Auburn. Bo Nix was pulled, and he was seen sulking on the sidelines. The optics and problems at Auburn are under the spotlight. It very well may mean former LSU QB TJ Finley gets the start for Auburn. The LSU offensive line are going to be going all out and I think they already have the edge. The bigger reason is playing in Death Valley at night is a death sentence for opponents. Since 2005 LSU is 45-4 in home night games, and 102 thousand plus fans are very loud. I don't think this is a good spot for Auburn with QB issues. Make the play on LSU.

Oregon St. Coach Johnathon Smith has turned the Oregon ST. program around. The Beavers are off to a 3-1 start, and had a huge victory last week when they went to USC and won for the first time since 1960. They didn't just win, they went for over 500 yards and the final score was 45-27. This is a team with a solid defense and an elite offense which has generated 7.1 yards per play vs a schedule of teams that allow 5.6. Washington opened the season with a 13-7 loss to Montana as a 23 point favorite, and were taken apart by Michigan. They beat Cal last week in a very misleading game. Washington won 31-24 but were out-gained 457-326. Cal mad a lot of mistakes and turned the ball over 3 times.Oregon St. has lost 9 straight to Washington, by an average margin of 23 points per game. This is the season for Oregon St. to exercise some demons, and you know they are not only good, they are confident, and have the home crowd this time around. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 4-0 start and the offense has not taken off yet. Oklahoma has been held to 16 and 23 points the last 2 games, typically a recipe for losses with this team. The good news is the defense has allowed 39 total points in their last 3 contests. The Sooners have been ordinary on offense thus far, but that will change. Kansas St. is in off a 31-20 loss to Oklahoma St. They will once again be without QB Skylar Thompson. Without Thompson the Wildcats have turned to their running game, but that has been the best part of this Sooner team thus far, defending the run. Oklahoma allows 2.4 yards per carry to a schedule of teams generating 3.6 yards per carry. Think this game is a mismatch and will make the play on Oklahoma.

The Bowling Green Falcons are 2-2 which looks a lot better than what we have seen from this team in recent years. They beat Minnesota last week as a 30 point under dog. Letdown? I'm not sure, but my take is there doesn't have to be. Bowling Green gained 192 yards in that game, but Minnesota turned the ball over 3 times. It hasn't been good for a team coming off a straight up win as a dog of 30 or more points as they are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their next game. Kent St. is just 1-3 but the losses are to Texas A&M, Maryland, and Iowa. They have been on average a 17 point dog in those 3 games. Kent St. has a very good offense, and strong running game, and their stats have been dwarfed by the level of competition they have faced this season. Make the play on Kent St.

The Michigan Wolverines are 4-0 and have really been dominating opponents. The Wolverines have out-gained opponents by 155 yards per game and out-scored them on average 40-12. They look the part of a playoff team through 4 games. There is a caveat. Michigan beat 3 cupcakes and a decent team in Rutgers all at home. Rutgers is improved but still not a high level team. The Rutgers defense, on the road held the Michigan offense to 112 rushing yards. This after Michigan gained over 1000 yards on the ground in their first 3 games, and held Michigan to 2 first downs in the 2nd half. Michigan does not look the same if they can't run the ball, and Wisconsin is allowing 23 rushing yards a game on the season, and last week held Notre Dame to 3 rushing yards on 32 carries. Michigan has not turned the ball over all season, while Wisconsin has done so 9 times. Wisconsin is looking at potentially starting their season 1-3, and basically it will be over so a huge effort is expected at home. Since 2016 there have been 9 unranked teams facing a top 15 team as a favorite. Those games saw 7 of the 9 win the game, and the 2 losses were both by 1 point! This is Michigan's first road game of the year, and it won't be easy vs a Wisconsin team playing to keep their season alive. Wisconsin is 61-8 at home in their last 69 and is a very difficult place to win. Make the play on Wisconsin.

USC has QB issues but Kedon Slovis has been named the starter as he has been dealing with a neck injury. Oregon St. is 2-1 and has an experienced team with 19 starters returning. They hve out-gained all 3 opponents on the season and have an outstanding passing attack that should be able to put up enough points in this game against a pedestrian USC secondary to stay in this game. The Oregon St. defense is rather ordinary, but good enough. The difference in these teams is perception, but not so much reality. I have the fair line in this game from 6/7.5 depending on just how healthy the USC QB situation is. Plenty of line value here, make the play on Oregon St.

Both these teams enter at 2-1, and both come in off huge blowout losses. The winner will be excited as these programs historically have not shown a whole lot. Someone comes out 3-1 and feeling pretty good about themselves. Many will look at this game and see they have each had a game vs New Mexico St. and New Mexico won by just 9, and UTEP dominated them on the road 30-3. Certainly says to most that the choice is clearly UTEP. UTEP Coach Dana Dimel had success at Wyoming, and was hired by Houston where he never had a winning season in 3 years, finishing 8-26. This is his 4th year at UTEP and he is 7-28 and has not won a conference game since 2018, where he won just 1. Danny Gonzales was a grad assistant over 20 years ago at New Mexico and this is his first time as a head coach. Most recently he was the defensive coordinator at San Diego St., and Arizona St. What I like about this game is the match up. UTEP loves to run the ball as they average 44 carries a game, and New Mexico is strong up front allowing just 272 rushing yards on 80 attempts or 3.4 yards per attempt. UTEP has some ball control issues as they have turned it over 9 times in 3 games, and New Mexico has forced 6 already. The Lobos held Texas A&M to less than 5 yards per carry, and games are usually won and lost in the trenches where I favor the Lobos. Make the play on New Mexico.

There isn't anything about this game that would attract most except the history books. There is no argument for Akron here, and Ohio St. could score on just about every possession. That is the broad view of this game. These games all look like they could play out 70-0, but seldom do. Starters should be on the sidelines by kick-off in the 2nd half. The driving influence here is this nugget. Since 1996 there has been 13 teams favored by 49 or more points vs an FBS team. They have proceeded to log a 1-12 ATS record. If you go back a bit further they are 2-16 ATS. I like the rationale behind playing against these enormous favorites. Some 49.5 lines still out there but 49 should be easy to find. Make the play on Akron.

The winner of this game will be 4-0, and get a big conference win. I have not been impressed with Oklahoma St. on offense, while the defense has been rather good. Mike Gundy returned just 5 starters on offense and his top 3 wide receivers are on the injury report as questionable. It has shown up on the scoreboard as the best Oklahoma St. has managed is 28 points in 3 games. The 3 wins have come by a net of 13 points, and the Cowboys have out-gained Missouri St., Tulsa, and Boise St. by 8 yards a game. Coach Klieman is a builder and he has Kansas St. on the rise. Despite QB injuries, the Wildcats are soaring on offense averaging 6.4 yrds per play to a schedule of teams allowing 5.4. The defense is just as good allowing 4.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams generating 5.6. They have been a yard better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.Both these teams strength of schedule is about even, and by no means should Oklahoma St. be favored by this much. It is a reputation line, and I'm not buying it. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is a big question mark regarding this Clemson team. What happened to the offense? Clemson lost a ton, but this team doesn't rebuild, they reload. The Tigers have a lot to answer for on offense, as they are averaging 8.5 points per game against FBS teams. Scoring 3 against Georgia may be able to be explained by the Georgia defense which may be the best in the country, but 14 vs Georgia Tech? NC State has allowed 31 points in 3 games or 10.3 points per game, so how in the world is Clemson going to cover around 10? There is one big reason. The offense will be better, bet on it. The defense is as elite as ever as the Clemson defense has allowed 0 points on the season. NC State scored just 10 points in their only legit game vs Miss St. and turned the ball over 3 times. Just remember over the summer the line on this game was posted around -20 at a Vegas Super book! Perception has blown this way out of proportion, and we get Clemson on the cheap here. If you think practices have been easy this week at Clemson, think again. I expect a big win by Clemson in this one, with the cover. Make the play on Clemson.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners have perhaps their best team in school history. They beat Illinois in a game where they led throughout the contest. Memphis was handed one last week by officials, and they scored 2 non-offensive TD's. We are used to Memphis going up and down the field but last week they managed just 246 total yards, and were out-gained by over 200 yards in the game. Offensively UTSA is an average team, but they run a lot of plays so the yardage per game is high at 477 yards per contest. The defense has been the strong point of this team, and Memphis does not have the same explosiveness as past years. Memphis is out-gaining opponents by just 22 yards per game and the Roadrunners are out-gaining opponents by 215 yards per contest. Some hidden value comes from UT San Antonio running 16 more plays a game than their opponents and Memphis 12 fewer than opponents. Jeff Taylor will have his team ready, and this one is prime for the upset. Make the play on UT San Antonio.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

When it comes to playing against the Big-10 it has been 90 years since the Auburn Tigers have faced a Big-10 team. This should be a big game as both teams come in ranked. The deck is certainly stacked for Penn St. First, it will be ESPN's Game Day. If that isn't enough, it is the annual white-out game where 100,000+ fans all dress in white. Next, this will be a very hostile crowd that some Auburn players have yet to see because covid limited fans a year ago. Auburn has a young team with just 9 starters returning. Bo Nix is still an enigma to me. He has dominated at home over his career where he has thrown 22 TD's to just 3 INT's. The road has been dramatically different where he has thrown 10 TD's and 10 INT's. He is going to have to be better than that. Auburn has generated 9.9 yards per play which looks elite, until you see it was against 2 teams that combine to allow 9.1. Penn St. went from a brutal 0-5 start last year to have now gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS. Auburn has beaten 2 real cream puffs at home, this is going into the deep end of the pool in more ways than one, and I don't think this young team is ready to handle it. Make the play on Penn St.

Dave Clawson has silently done an incredible job at Wake Forest. He has led a team that has the worst ll-time record of any P5 program to 5 straight bowls. The biggest problem he has had is recruiting enough depth. His teams over the 5 Bowl years and this year so far are 27-13 prior to November 3rd, but just 6-12 in the regular season after that. His team will benefit from the free year all players got due to covid-19, as he will return 9 5th year seniors and 19 starters in all. He has led Wake Forest to the 3 best scoring offenses in school history from 2017-19, and last year even better at 36 points per game. Wake has played 2 easy games, but this one is going to let the cat out of the bag. Wake is a team that I have as the most underrated in the country coming in. If they can stay healthy, they are going to have a big season, and right now they have 0 players on the injury list. I love Mike Norvell, but he has his hands full. Florida St. reminds me of Nebraska. They dominated for many years, the super coach leaves and the program never returns to what it was. Florida St. is heading down the same path. The Seminoles were 304-78 from 1987-2016 with 21 seasons of 10 wins or more. They have been 21-28 since. Since the start of the 2017 season they are 12-20 in the ACC and just 10-20-2 ATS. Since the start of the 2018 season they are 2-12 on the road with the average loss coming by 20.1 points per game. How the mighty has fallen. Last week they lost 20-17 to Jacksonville St. at home. Starting QB Travis Jordan is listed as available, and McKenzie Milton is a great story but he has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt so far, and is a long way from the QB he was before his really bad injury while at Central Florida. Milton had not played since 2018. Wake is the superior team here, well motivated, deeply experienced, and a competent QB with some great wide receivers, and all 11 offensive starters back and healthy. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Notre Dame has started 2-0, but it is a very soft 2-0. They were strongly challenged by both Florida St. and Toledo. Yes, they are 2-0 but they don't look anything like they have in recent years. There are a lot of holes. This team has ruled the line of scrimmage over the last 3-4 years, but have been out-rushed 198-99 by two opponents I would rate below Purdue. Worse than that through 2 games Notre Dame has allowed 4 plays of 60+ yards already under new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. Here is the scary part of that. Under former defensive coordinator Clark Lea they allowed fewer than that over the last 3 years combined! The other surprising stat is the Notre Dame offensive front has already allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Purdue Coach Brohm is 15-5 ATS as a road dog since coming to Purdue. He has 18 starters returning and have looked the part early. A road dog of 3.5-10 points in a non-conference game off a non-conference game is 51-20 ATS the last 5 years. I think Purdue is within a score of this Notre Dame team that has yet to earn their national ranking this year. This one is close. Make the play on Purdue.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.

Hard to believe what we saw fron North Carolina last week. Their electric offense, behind a Heisman caliber QB in Sam Howell scored 10 points vs Virginia Tech. Lane Stadium was electric, and the Heels just were not ready to match the Hokies energy and were beaten. Did Sam Howell lose a Heisman opportunity in just 1 week? Certainly possible as he threw 3 INT's in the loss. Carolina out-gained Virginia Tech 354-296, but made too many mistakes. Lost in this game is the Carolina defense which limited Virginia Tech to 296 yards. Mack Brown has everyone back on defense and it showed. Georgia St. returns everyone on offense but Army limited them to 10 points and just 177 total yards. The Panthers did a good job against the Army rushing attack, but the Carolina offense is just the opposite and they have too much speed here and should be playing with an edge after their horrible performance on the road. It will be redemption Saturday in Chapel Hill. I like North Carolina in a blowout.

Let's get these things out of the way to start. Iowa St. has not beaten Iowa by more than 3 points in the last 14 years. Iowa has also won the last 5. This Cyhawk rivalry goes back to the 1800s. Iowa destroyed Indiana in its opener while Iowa St. had to hold on for a tough win vs an FCS opponent in Northern Iowa. Now for the good stuff. Iowa St. was a top 10 team a year ago, and brings back 21 starters from that team. They have a seasoned NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy, an All-American capable RB in Breece Hall, and an NFL TE in Charlie Kolar. The defense has allowed a total of 16 2nd half points in its last 16 games. Needless to say this was a top 10 team last year, and this is a potential playoff team this year. Iowa had 2 pick-6's against Indiana which was the game. They will be an under dog for the first time in this series in the last 21 years. Iowa isn't as good as they looked vs Indiana, and Iowa St. wasn't as bad as they looked vs Northern Iowa. Iowa has not been good in a dog role lately where they have 1 upset in their last 9 games as a road dog, and are just 2-7 ATS in those games. This is the best Iowa St. team ever and the summer line was Iowa St. -8, but the perception created in each team's opener has moved this line without real justification. The real Iowa St. takes the field this week at home where they are the much better and deeper team. Make the play on Iowa St.

California had some high expectations last year, and covid-19 derailed their season. The Bears played just 4 games and went a disheartening 1-3. They were missing a lot of key players in 2 of the games, and completely self-destructed in 2 others.They did win their finale vs Oregon 21-17 who was a ranked team at the time.  The Bears lost their opener on the road vs a very good Nevada team 22-17. The game was played pretty even, and while the defense did its part, the offense did not click as expected, and I believe they are better than what they showed. The defense has been a staple for this team in recent years, and this year will be no exception. The area that was horrible last year was special teams, and there is no where to go but up, and if they fix the problem, they will automatically be better. The Bears could be a top 30-40 team this year and good enough to meet some of the expectations. TCU finished strong last year but had to withdraw from a Bowl bid because of covid-19. The TCU program has always been very good but the last 3 years have not been of the same caliber. The Frogs are just 18-17. The offense should be good but they lost 3 defensive players to the NFL, and their not going to be able to get the same level this year. This game comes down to Cal's ability to limit the TCU offense and they have been a proven commodity in that arena. They also have a better offense than they showed in game 1, and are catching the TCU defense early, before the new players grasp the system. Think this is a single digit game. These are the games Justin Wilcox has seen his team excel in. Wilcox has led his team to a 19-8 ATS record as a dog with 12 outright wins! Those 12 outright wins has seen his team win 7 of the 12 as a +7 or more dog. Make the play on California.

Notre Dame does not have the depth it has had over the past few seasons. We saw that impact last week as the defense was dog tired and the Irish defense looked helpless in stopping the Florida St. offense in the 2nd half. Florida St. piled up the rushing yards generating 264. Transfer QB Jack Coan looked very comfortable racking up 366 passing yards and 4 TDs against the Noles as he has a lot of weapons unlike he has had before. They will be coming off a short week which certainly could leave the defense vulnerable again vs a Toledo team that is returning 21 players and should contend for the MAC Title. Last season Toledo put up 35 points per game and certainly could up that total this season. The Rockets have it all covered on offense and should pump enough points into this game limit the work the Notre Dame offense has to generate to push this one over the top. Notre Dame could not stop Florida St. and Toledo is going to get their share here against an Irish defense which is good but not not like what we have seen the past couple of seasons. Make the play on the over.

If you happened to get a glimpse of Tulsa last week, it had to make you cringe. The Golden Hurricanes had an easy game vs FCS UC Davis and they were posted as a 25 point favorite. One problem. They did not even score 25 points they finished with 17 and had trouble all game getting anything going. Tulsa QB David Brin put a lot of expectations on the QB with a 4th quarter come from behind win vs Tulane last year. That isn't what we saw in week 1. Oklahoma St. was a 38 point favorite vs FCS Missouri St. and barely pulled out a 23-16 win. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch and is in quarantine regarding covid-19. He is expected to miss again. The Cowboys generated just 5.2 yards per play against an FCS team and turned the ball over 3 times. Oklahoma St. faced Tulsa last season and won a very low scoring game 16-7. I don't see a whole lot of difference here in this one. Make the play on the under.

Texas St. has not been in the FBS that long. They had some early success, but the last 6 years has seen this program go 15-57 SU, and they have not logged more than 3 wins in any season over the last 6 years. Dave Aranda`s first year as Baylor head coach was a 2-7 disaster. He had to install a new system on both sides of the ball, but covid took away spring practice. This on the heels of a Conference Championship game and Sugar Bowl appearance. The offense is full of weapons, and the defense has 22 players returning with ample experience. The special teams are among the best in the nation and I would not be surprised to spring one vs Texas St. Baylor will be a top 40-50 team, but if a QB emerges and surprises they will be a top 25 team. Last year makes them look light years from being competitive, but that is far from the case. Texas St. over the last 6 years has faced 4 P-5 Conference teams and has lost on average by 34 points per game and none closer than 28. I think Baylor comes away with a comfortable win and cover. Make the play on Baylor.

The Indiana Hoosiers finished 6-2 a year ago and for the first time they beat Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. That has set high expectations for this season, especially with QB Michael Penix returning off a torn ACL. Penix is a very solid QB, but in 3 years at Indiana his season has ended prematurely with leg or shoulder surgery. Week 1 vs a very strong defense is going to test him immediately and I'm not sure Indiana is going to put him in a lot of running spots, which could limit his overall effectiveness. One big question for Indiana is the offensive line. The Hoosiers ran for just 3.3 yards a carry last year, and a one-dimensional attack is not going to beat a strong and experienced Iowa defense. Iowa seems to be in the hunt every season. They opened 0-2 and ran the table to finish 6-2. Iowa has a commanding QB and one of the top RB's in the league that can close games in Tyler Goodson. Iowa is really tough at home, especially when they need to be, in a competitive situation. Iowa is 15-1 SU in their last 16 at home as a favorite of less than -6. I like Iowa in this one.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were certainly not good last season with a 3-6 finish, but that doesn`t tell the story. Rutgers brought back Greg Schiano who built the program previously, and he already had Rutgers competing in year one. Rutgers went from on average losing by 33 points per game to losing by 5 points per game last year. He has his system in place and 20 starters back to execute it. Rutgers beat Michigan St. by 11 their first win over the Spartans since 1994, and first road win there since 1991. Temple won just 1 game a year ago, and the rise of Temple was halted after 6 straight seasons of finishing .500 or better. They lost their last 4 by a combined score of 42-151, and a 35 point loss to Tulane and a 25 point loss to ECU were very telling how far away this team is. Rutgers thrived behind Schiano the first time around and they are poised to do it again. Make the play on Rutgers

This will be year 4 for Chip Kelley at UCLA. Everyone expected to see an Oregon-type offense out of the Bruin's but that level has not manifested itself to date. Things are about to change. The Bruins have 10 players back on offense and the most important is QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Robinson is healthy after missing 2.5 of the Bruin's covid shortened season last year that saw them play just 6 times.  This is a loaded offense being run by an above-average QB, that has also run for 8.6 yards per carry last year. The Bruins are poised to topple the respectable 465 yards per game they generated a year ago with 10 starters returning. The defense was much better than the 30.7 points per game they allowed and has 10 starters back and will benefit from a better offense, and experience. Hawaii has a suspect QB in Chevan Cordiero. He isn't special, but adequate, and he will have to be special to beat UCLA. The Warrior's have 10 defenders back and should be better, but I think the UCLA offense is going to improve more than the Hawaii defense, and this game sets up as one of those Chip Kelley pile it on blowouts. Make the play on UCLA.

It has been 638 days since the UConn Huskies have played a game. This is a school that has been horrible for a decade running. This is coach Randy Edsal's second go around at the University, and things have not gone well. Edsal is 6-30 upon his return, and just 3-30 against FBS competition. The Huskies have a roster that has 102 players 93 of them have 3 years of eligibility remaining. They have 44 true freshmen and 14 red shirt freshmen, which represents about 57% of the roster. There are just 8 seniors or red shirt seniors on the entire roster. Moreover, of the 70 players that saw the field in 2019 (their last actual game), 44 are no longer here. Complicating inexperience is the depth chart. The weather in Fresno will be very hot. The expected high temperature is 100-105. Fresno St. has 20 starters back. QB Jake Haener threw for 336ypg a year ago, and has 3 WR's that could all be a #1. Additionally they have a RB that has broken most school records already with a full year more to add to it. UConn has a very inexperienced offensive line, a guess at who starts at QB, and Fresno finished last season 3rd in the country with 4.16 sacks a game with everyone returning. UConn has had so many lopsided games, and this sure looks like another one. Make the play on Fresno St.

Saturday August 28th, 2021

This has been a great year for Colorado as they were not expected to be very good. The Buff`s are 4-1 with the only loss coming to Utah by 17, but that game was a lot closer than the final score. It was decided by 3 turnovers, or basically it was a pretty even game for the line of scrimmage. Texas under Tom Herman had another promising team that simply could not get over the top. All the rumors point to his exit. He has apparently been interviewing and wants out, and apparently so do a lot of the players. His team will be without 5 captains who have opted out, 3 NFL caliber players out, and 10 players all together, including a lot of the defense. Add in injuries, and this is not going to be a team resembling the 6-3 Longhorn`s season. The motivated team will be Colorado. The Buff`s played above expectations and will be ready to play. Texas is off a minster offensive game as they hung a 69 on Kansas St. but Bowl teams that scored 60 or more points in their game prior to their bowl are:

game type=BG and p:points>=60 and o:wins

This game fits my mega total system, and the play is on the under.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs are 2-7 and they have not been able to generate much offense. They are averaging 17.3ppg on the season.The Missouri defense has not held up against the top teams in the conference, but the poor offensive teams in SC, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky have scored a combined 20 points against them or 6.7ppg. Miss St. St. is the worst running team in the nation averaging 1.4 yards per carry. It has forced them to put the ball in the air 54 times a game. The aerial attack generates just 5.8 yards per attempt to a schedule of opponents allowing 7.4. Missouri is 5-4 with 3 of the losses to Alabama,Florida, and Georgia. I think there is a TD difference between these teams and will make the play on Missouri.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes were granted the right to play for the Big-10 Championship despite playing just 5 games this season. Ohio St. finished 5-0, and will take on Northwestern. This game is going to come down to the Northwestern defense and its ability to slow down the high octane offense of Ohio St. Northwestern has a legit elite defense, and finished the season 6-1. The lone loss was against Michigan St. where they had 23 players miss the game due to injuries or covid-19. They gave up 29 points. If you take that game out the Wildcats allow 12ppg. I don't expect the Cats to score a lot in this game on offense, but their defense is good at forcing turnovers and Justin Fields has been a bit less secure with the ball compared to last season. Ohio St. does not have anything close to defenses we have seen in the past from this team. They are at best very average. Northwestern also has a significant special teams edge in this game. Ohio St. fits into a Conference Championship situation that is 0-10 ATS. Make the play on Northwestern.

The Buffalo offense is led by Jeret Patterson who gained over 1000 yards despite a shortened 5 game season, and scored 18 TDs. Most of those stats cane against some horrific run stop units in Bowling Green, Kent St., and Akron where the Bulls ran for 1,339 yards. Those numbers were not nearly as good as the 2 better run defenses they saw in N. Illinois and Miami,O. The Bulls ran for just 5.0 yards per attempt. Ball St. allowed just 4.6 yards per attempt, so the Bulls should not be able to run all over the Ball St. defense. Buffalo is not so good on the defensive side of the ball and Ball St. averages 33.6ppg and should be able to stay in this game. The hype on Buffalo has allowed this line to creep upward, and the value here is on Ball St.

The UCLA Bruins own a winning record for the first time since 2017. USC has started strong at 4-0 but has managed to play just 2 games since 21 days as they dealt with a small covid outbreak. Their last game was pushed back 2 days, and they have had less time to prepare for UCLA, UCLA opened with a tough loss to Colorado, and just missed the upset of Oregon as a 2 TD underdog. Te Bruins have looked better every time they have taken the field and have covered 4 straight games, and have held 3 of those opponents to an average of 12.7ppg. These teams have played pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but the two factors, less prep time for USC, and the Bruins getting better by the week has me calling for the small upset here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Army and Navy game is usually a stand alone game that signals the end of the college football season. It is typically played on a neutral field, but like a lot of things covid-19 has altered that history. This game will be played at Army, along with a full college schedule. Navy has not been the same team as they had been over a decade or so. They own just 3 wins on the season by a combined margin of 9 points. This is usually for the Commander in Chief's Trophy, but that won't be decided until next week when Army takes on Air Force. The Navy offense has been grounded the last 2 weeks generating just 13 total points. The usually strong Navy ground game is as bad as it has been in a long time, generating just 3.7 yards an attempt and only 185 yards per game. They will have trouble moving the football against an Army team that sees the option in practice and defends it better than any team on the Navy schedule. Army is running the ball very well at nearly 300 yards per game. Navy is being out-gained by 107 yards per contest while Army is +58 yards. Make the play on Army.

Since the start of the 2015 season Rutgers has gone 6-45 SU in Big-10 games.The average margin has been over 22 points per game. Those 6 wins have seen just 4 of them come on the road. The good news is 2 have come this season at Michigan St., and Purdue. Greg Schiano has made an immediate impact to the program. He has them at 3-0 ATS on the road. Rutgers has been so bad for so long in conference play, a lot goes unnoticed.The numbers are staggering. Rutgers lost on average 3-36.4 on the road last year. This year they are 34-35.3. That is a 32 point improvement from last year. Maryland has looked improved also, but has only managed to play 4 times this season due to covid-19. They have had 3 of their last 4 games cancelled.I just don't see how a team maintains chemistry and sharpness to execute to the level that is needed on game day. I think Rutgers is well under the radar, especially after losing badly to a Penn St. team that is very underrated due to the record. That being said, Rutgers only failed to cover by 3 points. Make the play on Rutgers.

This game fits a total situation that is 536-297-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

It has been a crazy season for NCAA Football. Wake Forest has managed to play just 1 game since October 31st. They were a victim of covid-19 said to have impacted 35 scholarship players. Wake Forest held a full practice last Saturday for the first time since Thanksgiving. I would imagine the Wake Forest offense averaging better than 39 points per game is not going to be as precision as what would be considered normal. Louisville has lost 4 games by 7 points or fewer and is a lot better than their 3-7 record would indicate. Wake Forest will be without Kenneth Walker, a prime running back in the offense, as he left the team 4 days ago. Louisville has the better offense while the deefenses are pretty much even. Make the play on Louisville.

Grant Gunnell the Arizona QB left last game with an injured shoulder, and is questionable for Colorado this week. I'm trying to get ahead of the situation, before he gets declared out, but I like this game even if he plays. Arizona has lost 10 straight games going back to last year. They have lost them by a combined 183 points,and 9 of the 10 losses have been by double-digits. Arizona is being out-gained on the season by over 100 yards per game. They have also lost 6 defensive backs since the start of the season, and the offensive line is bad.Colorado has been the biggest Pac-12 surprise this season thus far at 3-0. The Buff's have been dominating on defense, and have a well above average passing attack. This looks like another 10+ point loss for the Wildcats. Make the play on Colorado.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

Texas AM is on the cusp of making the 4 team playoff for a National Championship. It appears that the noose is starting to tighten for this team. Last week vs an abysmal LSU defense they generate just 267 yards of offense. The game ended 20-7, but the yardage was even. They finished the game 3 in turnovers and still did not cover at home. This team also threw up a stinker vs hapless Vanderbilt, a 17-12 win. This is a tricky game for the Aggies as Auburn lost to Alabama last week but was only out-gained by 98 yards so the game played a lot closer than the final score. Auburn is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog, and all 7 wins were outright.The Tiger are 27-3 SU in its last 30 home games,and none of the losses have come by more than 7 points. I could see Auburn coming away with an outright win here, so the points certainly look like a great position. AM certainly has a tough history vs winning teams where they are 72-99 ATS in their last 171. Make the play on Auburn.

This game is from a mega total system that is 529-295-19 ATS. The play is on the under.

This comes down to this quote from the Kansas St. coach:
In a year that defines uncertainty, Kansas State coach Chris Klieman finds himself in a strange situation, even by today's standards.

Kansas State intends to head to Ames, Iowa, on Saturday to face No. 17 Iowa State as both teams hold on to hope of appearing in the Big 12 title game. But Klieman and the Wildcats are not sure they will have enough players to make the trip.

"We don't have enough (healthy) guys to shift around," Klieman said. "That's probably our issue. We're (practicing) with the guys that we have, just knocking on wood that we can get through Wednesday's tests, and Friday's tests.

"We're not the only ones in the country dealing with this. We're just down so many guys in certain spots that we can't even move people. So I'm just knocking on wood that we get good results the rest of this week."

That being said, obviously whoever travels, is going to be coming out of a week of preparation that didn't involve players playing in the game, and many backups. This from a team that not counting the B-12 doormat Kansas, their last 3 games has resulted in these ugly numbers:

37 drives
4 TDs
6 turnovers
15 three and outs

Iowa St. controls its own destiny to win the Big-12. Iowa St. enters this game completely healthy with 1 player on the injury report, and have an NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy and a strong running game to close the door. Make the play on Iowa St.

The UCLA Bruins are off an improbable but impressive win over Oregon St. in what turned out to be a Sunday matinee. They were originally slated to face Utah, but the unpredictable era of covid-19 game them fewer than 48 hours to prepare for California. The question is, having taken the bumps and bruises for the first time, how do they come back heading into the deep part of the pool on 5 days rest against Oregon? I think they will have their hands full. The Ducks have shown on offense to be the most balanced and lethal team in the country as their 539 yards a game is evenly split running and passing. The win over Cal wasn't so much about what the Bruins did, it was about a Cal team that couldn't tackle, and looked totally unprepared, but that just adds value here. Remember, UCLA lost their opener as a 7 point favorite vs Colorado where they were torched for over 500 yards. The Ducks have won an covered both games, despite being -2 in turnovers in one game, and -3 in the other. Think this one has blowout potential, and make the play on Oregon.

This game is from my totals system and the play is on the under.

The Iows Hawkeyes have turned their season around after starting 0-2 they have won the last 2 in convincing fashion. The last 2 wins have come by a combined score of 84-14. Quite a different start to the season for Penn St. as they have opened at 0-4. The Nitany Lions with a loss will be the first team in their illustrious history to start the season 0-5. This is a good match up for the Penn St. defense going against the power ground game of Iowa St. While the Iowa running game has been superb, the passing game has been horrific. The Lions have a stout run stop unit, and the Hawkeyes last 4 meeting vs Penn St. shows an 0-4 mark averaging just 79.2 yards a game. Penn St. has out-gained 3 of 4 opponents, and only Ohio St. has out-gained them. The Lions in fact have out-gained 2 of their 4 opponent by over 200 yards a game, an have played a much tougher schedule. Everything that can go wrong has for them thus far. Iowa comes into this game at +4 in turnovers an Penn St. -6. That is a 10 possession advantage in the stats for Iowa, or 2.5 per game. When you incorporate that into the stats, Penn St. is the better team, and has considerable line value here. Iowa has long struggled facing off vs the blue-bloods of the conference, Penn St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. as thy are 2-15 SU covering just 6 in th last 17. Wrong team favored. Make the play on Penn St.

I don't put out game of he month or year picks every week like so many betting services just taking money on hype. So I don't want to over-hype this game, stay the course, it is just 1 game and anything can happen. Cincinnati has not allowed more than 17 points to any team all season, and the offense looks improved. All of that is true. Central Florida on the other hand appears to be a tick down. Certainly not the offense, the speed that they run plays is unseen before. One area of omission working in UCF's favor is they run 9 more plays on average than their opponent per game and at 7.2 yards per play that is significant. Cincinnati runs 5 fewer plays than their opponent, so there is 100 potential yards on the side o UCF. UCF has never been favored by fewer than 3.5 points at home since they have gotten good, so this game is suddenly about 9 points more than that? Thy are 7-1-1 ATS at home in the few games they were favored by -17.5 or less. Their last 45 games has seen their biggest loss come by one possession, or 8 points. You can't measure the Cincinnati defense from what they have played so far, this is not near any of those games. Yes, I respect the Cincinnati defense, but UCF is not going to be playing in somewhat o a disinterested game, they are going to be bringing all of it here. They are 3-0 against undefeated teams winning by 4 TDs a game! Make the play on Central Florida.

Arkansas Head Coach Sam Pittman will miss this game, and will become the first SEC Head Coach to miss a game due to covid-19. The razorbacks are a story in the SEC, as they have been the biggest surprise. This is a team that had won just 4 games over the last 2 years, and have 3 wins already to a schedule that includes Georgia, Auburn, A&M, and Tennessee. Florida is coming off its biggest game of the season a 44-38 romp of Georgia, and may be without their best receiver in Kyle Pitts who is in concussion protocol. Arkansas has not had the caliber of QB like they do in Florida transfer Felipe Franks in years. He has 14 TD passes already, the most at Arkansas since 2016, and has thrown or over 200 yards in 6 straight, the most since 2000. While Florida is a high octane passing attack, the best part of the Arkansas team is the pass defense allowing 6 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 7.2. They will not stop Florida, but an extra stop or two as a big dog, could certainly be decisive. Florida has won just 1 game by more than 16 points, and Arkansas at the very least is equipped with a back door cover at the very least.Make the play on Arkansas.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are arguably off their biggest win ever. If not ever, it certainly is over the last 27 years as it marked their first win over that period where they defeated the #1 team in the country. Needless to say, this is as big of a letdown spot their is, and BC has already taken NC and Clemson to the brink this season. This the Red Bandana game at BC, as they honor Welles Crowther, who was a 9/11 hero, and BC Alum. This day has seen BC produce several upsets over the years, and can history repeat itself? BC upset a ND team that back in 1993 was off an upset of the #1 team in the country, and beat them. BC 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog with 5 outright wins. Make the play on BC.

The Louisiana program is alive and thriving. This is a team that from 1980 to 2010 never won more than 8 games. Since then they have done so 5 times, and at 6-1 on the season they are poised to make that 6. They certainly could challenge their program high 11 wins from a year ago. This game has plenty of hidden value. The Cajuns have under-performed their stats, have great special teams and a very strong defense. South Alabama is on the other side of the spectrum as the Jags have over-performed their stats on the season, and their defense is really bad. S. Alabama has certainly moved the ball well against poor offensive teams, but the top 3 defenses they have seen have limited them to 6,10,17 points, and Louisiana is better than those 3 defenses. The back door certainly has not shown to be open. Those 3 games have seen them out-scored 34-0 in the 4th quarter. This game has real blowout potential. Make the play on Louisiana.

SUCCESS AGAINST THE TRIPLE OPTION:

There are really 4 FBS teams that run the triple-option. They are the 3 military schools in Navy, Army, and Air Force, along with Georgia Southern. When a team faces the triple-option it is hard to prepare for as they just don't see it often enough. Today in the newsletter we will look at how teams fare when they have already seen the triple option this season, and have an actual game occurrence, and another week of practice to defend it. Not surprising, these teams fare pretty well in this case as we can see by:

HAVE FACED NAVY:

tS(o:team=NAVY)=1 and o:team in [ARMY,AIR,GASO]
ATS:     51-32-2

HAVE FACED ARMY:

24-14-1 ATS.

So having faced the main 2 military teams at least once already this season they are a combined 75-46-3 ATS!

This week Army will face a Tulane team that has already defended the option.

Make the play on Tulane.

The Indiana Hoosiers are 3-0 on the season, and the hype machine is in full force. They are ranked #10 in the country, which is way off the mark. there are few i any top 10 teams that are being out-gained from the line of scrimmage 5.3 yards per play to 4.7. Thy started the season with a 36-35 win vs Penn St. despite being out-gained 483-211. They also won the turnover battle. They beat Rutgers by 16, which included being +3 in turnovers. They had a big win vs Michigan and again were +2 in turnovers, and Michigan so far does not look as expected. Michigan St. opened the season with a loss to Rutgers by 11, in a game where they coughed the ball up 7 times! They also beat Michigan, but without the help of a single turnover. They were destroyed by Iowa last week, and once again a -3 in turnovers. Michigan St. has played dead even from the line of scrimmage and with power rating the schedules for each team it is dead even. This line is a perception line, and it is rich in value for Michigan St. Indiana also has Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Michigan St.

New Mexico is in a really tough spot this season. The administration was forced to take creative and drastic measures to play football this season. They would not have been able to play in New Mexico due to the states very strict covid-19 rules. This forced them to form somewhat of a partnership with UNLV. The agreement allows the New Mexico Coaches and players to stay in their student housing and use Sam Boyd Stadium. Might be the strangest situation ever. It sure looked like things were in disarray last week where San Jose St. lit them up for nearly 600 yards of offense. Now they will play their 2nd straight road game, but have to travel all the way to Hawaii. The Warriors have split a pair of toss-up games to start the season. Hawaii closed the season a year ago with 4 straight home wins vs the likes of San Diego St., Army, BYU, and San Jose St. The last time New Mexico was in hawaii was in 206, so few if any players have been here to face all the distractions, as if they haven't had enough already. Make the play on Hawaii.

 Mike Leach had this Washington St. program revived, but he has moved on, and the talent level has declined. This program has had its ups and downs going through periods o being very bad, to others where they have been very good. It remains to be seen where it goes from here. Nick Rolovich is coming over from Hawaii where his team`s were 21-31-1 ATS, not that enticing. His teams allowed 34.5ppg while at Hawaii. Johnathon Smith has the program at Oregon St. heading in the right direction. I think they have a lot more here at this stage against a team with a new head coach in the era of covid trying to install a new offense with a true freshman QB on the road. A bit much to ask at this point. Make the play on Oregon S

This is strictly a situational play.

conference = o:conference and AD and total 4.5 and conference in [ACC , B10 , B12 , P10 , P12 , SEC] and op:points

Tulane has long been a team that never seems to have enough offense to win games. That has changed as the Green Wave has put up 34.5ppg over its last 21 contests. Tulane showed that offensive muscle last week vs Temple where they put up over 500 yards, churned out 28 first downs, and close to 300 rushing yards. E. Carolina had a heart breaker last week losing 34-30 with some bad calls late in the game. They put together perhaps their best game of the year and came up short. I`m not sure what they have left in the tank. ECU fits in a horrible situation for this one as well as home dogs that average 35 or more points a game, off a high scoring game (60 or more points), are just 155-268 ATS. Make the play on Tulane.

Michigan St. was horrible in their game vs Rutgers to open the season, as they were guilty of 7 turnovers. They appeared like a team that ws ready to get blown out my Michigan, but they pulled off the major upset. That has poised them here to appear to have a more favorable team, but I`m not buying into that. This team has been in decline the last few years, and despite what happened vs Michigan, this team is not a very good team. Iowa comes in with value as they are 0-2 but have m an advantage at the line of scrimmage where they have out-gained their 2 opponents by about 35 yards per game. Iowa QB Spencer Petras appeared to have a bad game with 3 INTs, a pair off them were off deflections. This looks like a prime letdown spot for Michigan St. and a well focused Iowa team that will look to redeem an 0-2 start. Make the play on Iowa.

The Duke Blue Devils are 1-5 on the season, but they have played all ACC teams so far, and some good ones. Many will look at Duke being a big favorite as a 1-5 team to be a tough pill to swallow. History has other thoughts on that as a team that is 1-5 or worse and favored vs a .500 or better team is actually 11-2-1 ATS since 2010. That includes 8-0-1 ATS if they are favored by more than -4. Duke is also averaging a ridiculous 3.7 turnovers a game and all teams from game 3-8 (not many teams qualify after a 9th game), are 99-72-5 ATS including 45-23-2 ATS as a favorite, and 40-15-1 ATS if they are favored by -4 or more. Make the play on Duke.

It has been 3 weeks since Vanderbilt has taken the field, as they had their game vs Missouri postponed due to covid-19, and are off a scheduled bye last week. The Dores have been missing a lot of players from practice, although they are getting healthy. This Vanderbilt team is averaging a woeful 8ppg, and appears to be the worst offense in football right now. They should however have some success vs an Ole Miss team that is the worst defense in the SEC, but how much? Things got so bad for Ole Miss last week they had to add 2 offensive players to the defensive depth chart. This week they will certainly have a better defensive unit with CB's Jakorey Hawkins, and Deane Leonard returning, along with DE Tariquis Tisdale. Ole Miss has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, and has moved the ball well against all of them and have been out-gained by just 35ypg. QB Matt Corral had 9 TDs to just 1 INT through 3 games, but 3 TDs and 8 INTs in the last 2. Look for him to get back on track here. Vandy has allowed 40+ in their last 2 games, and while the offense should certainly score more than the 7 points they have in each of their last 2, they just don't have the necessary tools at the skill positions on offense to take advantage here. Vandy has scored no more than 14 points in its last 7 conference games and has allowed 36ppg inside the conference covering their last 28. I see a major blowout here. Make the play on Ole Miss.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a date at home next week vs Clemson. That may serve as a red flag for some bettors, as many will believe the Irish may have their eyes looking ahead against Georgia Tech. The surprising thing in all this is that the opposite is true. An unbeaten team that has their next game against an opponent that is ranked in the top 5 and is in game 4 or more, and favored by more than 17 points is actually 41-12 ATS.

WP = 100 and no:rank 3 and line < -17
SU:    52-1-0 (32.25, 98.1%)        Teaser Records
ATS:    41-12-0 (5.30, 77.4%)   

Make the play on Notre Dame.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights had what appears to be a big win over Michigan St. last week. The win snapped a 22 game conference losing streak. many are going to note that the difference is having Greg Schiano back. Schiano took over a Rutgers program, and it took him 5 years to get to a Bowl game, so to expect Rutgers to make a quantum leap after a win against a very bad Michigan St. team isn`t very feasible. Quietly the Michigan St. program he beat has been eroding for a few years, and there is not much left. The Spartans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games, and has not had a better than 10 point win in a conference home game since 2016! Rutgers was out-gained by about 100 yards vs a bad team. The Spartans also turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times, allowing the mediocre Rutgers offense to score 21 points on 3 drives that totaled 10 plays and 50 total yards. Indiana won 8 games a year ago, the most since 1993, and if QB Michael Penix Jr. stays healthy, the Hoosiers should have an even better team. Yes, Indiana beat Penn St. in a fluke, as they were out-gained by 277 yards. That was a horrible game by Penn St. that dominated completely, and the Nittany Lions are legit. They have 9 starters back on defense, from a team that allowed just 24.4ppg a year ago, and have edges all over the field. The Hoosiers are legit, and Rutgers is certainly improved, especially with an apparent upgrade at QB in Nebraska transfer Noah Vedral at QB. I think Rutgers will improve under Schiano, but after a surprise win, that was tainted by 7 turnovers, against a very bad team, this number is being held down. Indiana is legit, Rutgers is not. Make the play on Indiana

What a painful loss for a program that is desperate to get a win. Rice lined up for a game winning FG, and the ball hit the uprights, and crossbar 4 times before bouncing out. The game will forever be known as the quadruple doink. Rice ended up losing in double overtime. The Owls are now 6-31 over the last 3 years plus a game. Southern Miss has seen it all this year, as they are now on their 3rd head coach of the season, all this has happened in 5 games. The Eagles are off to a dreadful start at 1-4 SU/ATS being out-scored by 12.9ppg. The news gets worse as back up QB Tate Whatley is out, and tarting QB Jack Abraham missed last week with covid, but is expected to start on Saturday. Covid has really interfered with Southern Miss this season, and the coaching situation is like something never seen before. Seems like troubled waters. Make the play on Rice.

Someone will lose their first game as 3-0 Cincinnati takes on 5-0 SMU. The Mustangs have a big-time offense, in particular a passing offense that generates 10 yards per attempt. They have now scored 30 or more points in 16 of their last 17 games, limited in a slow down running game vs Navy to 28. Cincinnati has played absolutely no one to this point, and the 3-0 record is misleading, and they are generating a high rating based on last year more than anything they have done this year, which includes 8 turnovers in 3 games on offense. SMU lost Reggie Roberson at WR, but it did not slow down the passing attack. Make the play on SMU.

This game fits my mega totals situation, and the play is on the under.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head to Pittsburgh with a 4-0 record on the season. I believe the Irish are an overrated team at this point, and after 4 straight at home they will have a tough test against a Pittsburgh team that has a strong defense. The Irish opponents have put together an ugly 3-16 mark against FBS teams. Those teams have been out-scored on the road 34.5-18.75 and are a combined 1-11. QB Joey Yellen gets the start for Pitt, and I don't think there is much difference. Pittsburgh is out-gaining opponents by over 100 yards per game, and Notre Dame will face a defense that allows just 62 rushing yards per contest. The last 8 meetings has seen Notre game have a combined scoring margin of just 14 points or 1.8 per contest. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

Iowa St. has done a lot of losing over the years, but Matt Campbell has turned the Cyclone program completely around. None of the prior 6 coaches left Iowa St. with a winning record. After his first season the Cyclones are 26-17 SU, covering 60% and is 10-2-1 ATS as a conference dog in his last 13. Despite being an average 9 point dog, he has outscored those opponents as a dog. he has an NFL caliber QB in Brock Purdy. Oklahoma St. has long had a reliable QB and high scoring offense, but that is not the case, as they go back and forth between Spencer Sanders and Shane Illingworth. Oklahoma St has reached #6 in the polls, and this team is highly over-rated and lost the yardage battle to both W. Virginia, and Tulsa. I think the Cyclones have the better team and the better QB in this one, and will play the road team. make the play on Iowa St.

This game is part of the mega total system that I have. Make the play on the under.

Texas AM waited a long time or what they did last week vs Florida. They beat a top 5 team at home or the first time in 18 years. That is giving this team a lot more respect than they deserve. Florida is not a top 5 team at any point this season. You would have to look pretty hard to find a top 5 team that allows better than 33ppg. QB Kellen Mond is vastly overrated, The offense generates 455 vs a schedule of teams allowing 473. Those are pedestrian numbers. The best part of the Aggie team is the run defense allowing 3.4 yards per carry vs a schedule of teams generating 4.2. The problem is Mike Leech teams don`t run the ball, as the Bulldogs run 18 times a game andd pass 63. The best part of the AM team will be a non-factor in this contest. What will be under the gun is an Aggie defense that allows a stunning 10.2 yards per pass attempt. However, the biggest advantage is the Miss St. defense that allows a stingy 4.2 yards per play to a schedule of teams that generate 5.5. Miss St. has turned the ball over 14 times in 3 games, which is unsustainable, and makes them look a lot worse than they really are. AM could be flat as a pancake off their biggest win in close to 2 decades, and a road favorite off a win vs a top 14 team is 88-116-2 ATS covering just 43.1%. (drops to 40% in an anticipated competitive game with a line of -6 or lower). Make the play on Miss St.

Duke has one number that is difficult to wrap around. Through 5 games they have turned the ball over 19 times. That means the offense has forfeited possession 19 times, yet they have scored 31 and 38 points in the last 2 games, and had 102 offensive snaps in their last one despite 4 turnovers. NC State has scored 137 points and allowed 137 points through 4 games, or on average close to 70ppg. I think the points will be flowing in this game, and would project this one closer to 70 than 60. Make the play on the over.

Notre Dame is off to a 3-0 start, but there are still a lot of questions for this team. They destroyed a helpless S. Florida team, but against a pair of mediocre teams in Florida St. and Duke. They failed to cover or put away either of them. Louisville is 1-3 and has some offensive upside, which could keep the backdoor open. Notre Dame will be in their 4th straight home game. Louisville may be 1-3 on the season, but they have out-gained the 4 opponents by better than 30 yards per game. The killer for this team thus far is their -8 turnover margin on the season. I went against the Irish last week vs Florida St. for the win, and Louisville is very similar to that team, but I think more upside if they can resolve the unfortunate turnovers. Make the play on Louisville.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

The SEC is certainly at the top of the mountain when it comes to NCAA Football. The 3 teams that seem to get all the attention are Auburn, Georgia, and Alabama. This is a much more vulnerable team in Auburn than most years. QB Bo Nix gets a lot of ink, but he has yet to show he is special, as most thought this would be a breakout year for him. The Auburn defense is young, banged up, and has been below average thus far. The Tigers are 2-1, but could easily be 0-3. A late controversial call, a missed extra point, and a failed 2 point conversion helped them beat Arkansas last week. Their opener against Kentucky saw them at +3 in turnovers, in a game where they lost the yardage battle. South Carolina lost to Tennessee by just 4 points, winning the yardage battle, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. They lost the yardage battle to Florida by just 19 yards, and dominated Vandy 41-7. Overall, South Carolina has been 150 yards a game compared to Auburn (+92 to -58), to a fairly comparable schedule. Wrong team favored. Make the play on South Carolina.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

The BYU Cougars are 4-0 on the season, but after beating their first 3 opponents by an average margin of 41ppg, they beat UT San Antonio at home by just 7. While the running game has been pretty vanilla thus far QB Zach Wilson has been electric completing 80% of his passes. The Cougars looked very ordinary last week against a solid team, but now they head out on the road after 3 straight home games, and their stiffest test of the season thus far. Houston is extremely under the radar and is the most experienced team in the country with 9 starters returning on both sides of the ball. What is even better than that, is they have 3 transfers from power 5 schools on defense that had to sit out a year ago. They are all starting, so 3 starters on defense rom a year ago, add depth to the Houston defense. Looking at the final score of Houston vs Tulane looked like a shootout, as Houston won 49-31. AA closer look reveals Tulane scored 14 defensive points, had a 5-0 turnover advantage and still lost by 18. To put that in perspective, since 1980, just 5 teams that lost the turnover battle 5-0 won the game out of 119 occurrences, and no team won by more than 14 points, until Houston. That is because despite 5 ewer possessions, Houston won the yardage battle 476-211. Houston QB Clayton Tune led an above average offense when he started a year ago, and this is a complete Houston team. I would not be surprised if they won here outright. Make the play on Houston.

This will be a reset game for Notre Dame who has not played in nearly a month. It is the age of covid, and after starting 2-0 the Irish missed better than a week of practice time, and even held a scrimmage right in the middle of their season, because the circumstances are so disjointed. They struggled in game 1 vs a not so good Duke team, winning 27-13, and we will likely see them struggle against a not so good Florida St. team that trailed in the 2nd half vs Jacksonville St. last week. The Mike Norvell era is off to a shaky start, but perhaps on a brighter note he may have found himself a QB. The Florida St. offense was really struggling and in comes Jordan Travis. Travis went 12/17 with a TD, and led the Noles to 5 straight TD drives. He has been named the starter vs Notre Dame. The Irish will still have 10 or so players missing for this game. The public is all over Notre Dame at 88%, and this number is eroding despite of that. This looks like the ideal place to buy some ugly. Make the play on Florida St.

Kentucky has shot themselves in the foot in 2 straight games and it has led to an 0-2 start. The Cats have played a pair of close games but are -4 in turnovers, and 2 cost them dearly as they occurred at the 1 yard line ready to score. Cats lost last week on a missed extra point in overtime. They have out-gained their opponent by 80 yards a contest, and have a solid experienced QB in Terry Wilson who is completing just under 70% of his passes. The ground game is strong, and the defense is above average. Kylin Hill may very well miss this contest for Miss St. who upset LSU, and then went and lost to Arkansas at home. Welcome to the Mike Leach era. Cats season is on the line in this one, and they haven't started 0-3 in 38 years. Balance is the key here, and this line looks a bit light to me, and a false favorite. Make the play on Kentucky.

This game is part of my monster total algorithm, that has crushed totals in NCAA Football for years, and is 66% over 800+ games. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-47-4 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

The BYU Cougars certainly have not been in the deep end of the pool yet, but that won't change this week as they host UT San Antonio. The Cougars have put up "Alabama" like passing numbers thus far, and I don't see UT San Antonio being the place that stops. The Cougars are generating 8.3 yards per play, and UTSA just 4.1. BYU has played a tougher schedule, even though it has been soft, and own a 400 yard advantage over their opponents. That could be larger here. UTSA is +5 in turnovers, so they have actually been worse than they look, which is already bad. This looks like a 58-6 type game to me. Make the play on BYU.