CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

It is not surprising to see Alabama and Georgia in the Championship game. They have been the best teams all season so it all comes done to one game to win it all. Georgia was nearly a 7 point favorite in the SEC Championship Game. That was based on the full body of work of both these teams. Suddenly the line is Georgia by 2.5. That means the full body of work has been replaced by recency bias and a 41-24 Alabama win in the SEC Title game. I'm not sure any game is worth 4 points on the line, especially when you look at the aftermath. Alabama beat Cincinnati soundly 27-6. Cincinnati was just too small up front and the Alabama running game ate them alive. Brian Robinson went for 204 yards. He went nowhere vs Georgia as he generated 55 yards on 16 attempts. Alabama lost John Mechie in the Georgia game. Metchie had 6 catches for 97 yards and a TD before departing with an ACL injury. Alabama has secondary issues. Josh Jobe is out, and Jalyn Armar-Davis left the Cincinnati game with a hip injury. The Alabama offensive line saw Emil Elkiyor leave the Cincinnati game with a shoulder injury, and his back up is a freshman. Chris Owens left with a leg injury, and Darian Dalcourt is banged up as well. Alabama played its best game of the season in the first meeting, and Georgia their worst. Alabama needed the game more, and played like it. The entire 1st meeting came down to Alabama scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter. Think about the fact that Georgia allowed 17 or fewer points in every other game this season. Alabama didn't sustain drives as 28 points came on 3 drives totaling 14 plays, and a pick-6. Mechie and Williams combined for 281 yards and 3 TDs, and Mechie left the game. They will focus on Williams, and expect a lot of pressure on Young. George Pickens will be as healthy as he has been all season for Georgia, and he could be a huge factor. Alabama has had pass protection issues at times this season, and with a banged up offensive line, and a Georgia defense that is going to seek revenge, it will be different this time. The longest running play by either team in the first meeting was 15 yards. The memory of game 1 makes Georgia a tough sell. Everything went wrong in that game, and after watching Georgia manhandle Michigan, that more closely resembles this team than the debacle vs Alabama. Make the play on Georgia.

The final bowl game of the season prior to the National Championship game takes place tonight as LSU (6-6) takes on Kansas St. (7-5). LSU has ended the short-lived Ed Orgeron era. Following a perfect 15-0 National Championship season, the Bayou Bengals have been just 11-11. What this team looked like at the beginning of the season is completely different than the team that will be on the field tonight. Injuries, opt-outs, transfers, and academic causulties has devastated this roster that now has just 40 or so scholarship players. Kansas St. is heading the other way as QB Skylar Thompson will start his 4oth game for Kansas St. The offense is much better when he plays, and the defense is solid. Kansas St. lost their final 2 games without Thompson despite allowing 20 and 22 points. Without Thompson the Wildcats were 5-22 on 3rd down and 1-4 on 4th down. Brad Davis will be the interim coach for LSU tonight, and the coaching advantage is in favor of Kansas St. The more motivated team is Kansas St. I think the Wildcats control this game start to finish on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Kansas St.

Baylor at 11-2 may be one of the most under-appreciated teams in the country. Right there with them is Ole Miss. One huge step toward winning this game is that The Ole Miss elite QB, Matt Corral is playing. I think he has truly been one of the most important players on any team this season. Ole Miss has been showing up big for bowl games as the Rebel's are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. This game fits the coaches experience advantage over their opposing coach, and for Baylor Coach Aranda this will be his first ever bowl. Ole Miss had 3 WR's banged up in some crucial games, but are finally healthy and that means a strong offense should be stronger. The QB edge is huge here and that is the most important player on the field. Make the play on Ole Miss.

It is going to be hard for Ohio St. to bring their "A" game despite the fact that this is the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon at home, and fell to Michigan in their season finale for the first time in years. A trip to the playoffs were lost in those 2 games. The defense is not up to the level this team has achieved in prior years as 4 opponents went for 30+ against Ohio St., while the elite offense was limited by the better defenses they faced. The offense will be without 2 of their top 3 WR in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The pair combined for 25 of the 40 Ohio St. passing TD (62.5%), as well as 2,000 receiving yards of the 4300 generated by the Ohio St. passing game. They have also lost their leader in sacks in Haskell Garrett, and they will be missing their top offensive tackle. Utah opened the season losing twice in its first 3 games to BYU and San Diego St. They also blew a 10 point lead to Oregon st. That loss seemed to bring this team together as they went on to finish 6-0 beating Oregon twice, as well as UCLA. They averaged 40ppg in the 5 contests allowing just 16 and vs Oregon twice and UCLA won by a combined score of 120-41. Uth has a very strong bowl history as they are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS. That includes 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Utah.

Notre Dame comes into this game having won their last 4 games by a combined score of 162-23. That is about as good as it gets. The problem is the competition was awful other than Virginia but the Cavs were without their dynamic QB in that game. The role will be reversed as they take on Oklahoma St. who missed qualifying for the playoffs by inches. This time it is Notre Dame missing some key pieces, including coach Kelly who took the job at LSU. Moreover, the Irish will be without star RB Kyren Williams, as well as their top defender in DB Kyle Hamilton. The Irish have severely under-achieved in Neww Year's 6 or BCS Bowls. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. Oklahoma St. lost to Baylor 21-16 without RB Warren, but the defense has been ultra elite. They allow just 278 yards per game and 16.8ppg. They rank #3 in the country holding opposing offenses to 146 yards per game below their season average. Additionally they have recorded a nation's best 53 sacks including 32 in their last 5 games. I like Oklahoma St. in this one.

It would be easy to look at Iowa at 10-3 and Kentucky at 9-3 and figure Kentucky played in the SEC so they must have had a much tougher schedule. That would be a problem because Iowa played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Looking at the Kentucky 9 wins I just don't see anything impressive, and the strength of schedule Iowa faced is considerably stronger. Kentucky relies heavily on a potent ground game, but Iowa has allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, and this defense is going to be fresh coming into this contest. The Iowa offense does not scare anyone, as the Hawkeyes have had trouble moving the ball most of the season. Iowa is very good at turning their opponent over. Kentucky struggled to move the ball themselves vs better teams. It comes down to turnovers and the battle in the trenches and I see Iowa having the edge in both. Bowl coaching situation adds to the mix. Make the play on Iowa.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

The last time Georgia took the field they were manhandled by the Alabama passing attack. Young is an elite QB with a lot of weapons and that may be the only team in America that could beat the Georgia defense. I think Georgia is aching for another shot at Alabama, and are going to be a handful in this game. Remember Georgia gave up 83 points all season, and I think you are going to see Michigan get completely shutdown in this one. The Wolverines finally got over the hurdle of beating Ohio St. The question is if the moment is bigger than this team, and if they can solve the elite Georgia defense. Don't expect anything close to what happened in the Alabama game. Michigan is very vulnerable to the defensive personnel of Georgia, and they will be in the Michigan backfield all game, and I really think this one could get ugly. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball and I think they run ll over Michigan, especially in the 2nd hlf when the punishing ground game takes over. Make the play on Georgia.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a college football playoff fixture throughout the tenure of Nick Saban. They will take on an unbeaten Cincinnati team that may just have the secondary to cover some of the outside weapons that Alabama possesses. One of those weapons will be missing from this game as John Mechie went down with a torn ACL. The Tide has not been without close calls this season. They have played 4 games where they did not win by more than 7 points, the most since 2014. The last 4 times in the Saban era the Tide played 3 or more games where they did not win by more than 7 points have not turned out as well as when they didn`t. The 4 years it occurred they were out-scored by their opponent in the playoffs by 3 points per game. Cincinnati has the back side of the defense that could certainly give the elite Alabama passing game enough trouble to make this a tight contest. Cincinnati went to Notre Dame and built a 17-0 halftime lead on their way to a 24-13 win. No team on their schedule topped 28 points and just 2 scored more than 21. Alabama is off their best game of the season as they manhandled Georgia. I don`t expect a duplicate here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Unlike Rutgers, Central Michigan was practicing and planning to play against Boise St. That game was canceled and C. Michigan volunteered to play Washington St. in the Sun Bowl. I think the match up here is going to favor a lot of scoring. I`m surprised this game is still sitting in the 50s. I see this game approaching 70. The Washington St. offense took off late in the season as the Cougars averages 35.5ppg in their last 4 games, and just 24.4ppg prior to that. Central Michigan has done the same. The Chip`s last 4 games saw them average 41ppg! I think the opportunity lies here for C. Michigan to hang tight, win outright, or get a backdoor cover. Make the play on Central Michigan.

Wake Forest had a record setting year, and while this appears like it could be a letdown game, it is just the opposite. Wake Forest is glad to be able to get rewarded to a Bowl game that appeared as if it was not going to happen. The weakness for Wake Forest has been the defense. A closer look certain tells the story of what to expect here. I think most won't pick up on this. Wake allowed 34 points or more in 7 of its games, but those were against mostly potent or at least average to above averages opposing offenses. When they faced mediocre offensive teams (Old Dominion, Florida St., Duke, BC, Norfolk St., and even a good offense in Virginia, none of the 6 teams scored more than 17 points against them. Enter Rutgers. Rutgers didn't practice for 3 weeks. They also had 5 players sign with agents that will not be eligible for this game. Rutgers opened the season at 3-0, and then the competition went up. They were 2-7 from that point on. Against their 6 strongest opponents they combined to get out-scored 223-58! That is an average score of 9.7-39 or just about an average loss of 30ppg. Now they play without a full compliment of players that didn't practice for 3 weeks, and have just a few days of practice against an elite offense, and I don't see them staying within 3 TD. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Both these teams finished the regular season at 8-4. Their 8-4 record is not as good as their stats. They out-gained their opponents by 141 yards per game on the season, and the defense is ultra elite allowing a stingy 4.2 yards per play. Arizona St. will not be able to run the ball here as the Badgers allow just 2.2 yards per carry on the season, and they are also 1 yard better defending the pass than their schedule of opponents generated. Arizona St. lost their top 2 running backs as they opted out as well as a pair of players in their secondary. Wisconsin also fits the bowl coaching experience situation that has been money in bowls for a long time including this year. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It was a disappointing year for North Carolina with their 6-6 finish. QB Sam Howell came back and the Heels thought they would be a top 10 team, but it didn't pan out. The good news Sam Howell is playing in the bowl game. South Carolina also finished 6-6. The heels as a 6-6 team had a 1 yard advantage over SC from the line of scrimmage per play. SC is also losing their top RB and top defensive player for this game. The SEC has yet to win a bowl game as of 12/28 (0-4). North Carolina has a huge advantage in the running game as they are elite, and SC is awful. This game also fits the bowl coach experience advantage. Mack Brown is +22 the biggest differential of any bowl. These coaches are 134-92-1 ATS including 12-5 ATS this year through 12/28. Make the play on North Carolina.

For a Bowl game on December 29th this has all the makings of a New Yea's Day type bowl. Both these teams were on the cusp of the playoffs. Getting to the game, both teams have a few opt outs, and I consider a slight edge to Oklahoma on the advantage that has created. Both coaches have moved on so Oregon will be led by Bryan McClendon, and Oklahoma by Bob Stoops. I give the coaching edge to Stoops. I also think the QB match up favors Oklahoma. I would take Williams over Brown every time. Oregon started the season challenged by Fresno St. and went to Ohio St. and pulled the shocking upset. It looked at the time like Oregon was an elite team with a strong chance at a playoff spot. They were 4-0 and suffered their own shocking loss to Stanford 31-24 in OT. They played arguably the best Pac-12 team late in the season in Utah twice, and lost by a combined score of 76-17, and that was it for the Ducks. I like the match up here in favor of the Sooners. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Iowa St. began the season ranked in the top 10. This was supposed to be the year Iowa St. broke through, with a legitimate chance to win the Big-12, and qualify for the playoffs. Right from the very start trouble showed itself. The Cyclones barely got by FCS Northern Iowa 16-10, an proceeded to lose to Iowa 27-17. The net result was a highly disappointing 7-5 finish. Now the Cyclones lose Breece Hall who has opted out, and he was the main cog in the offense as the Cyclones running game was potent. QB Brock Purdy, a 4 year starter did not have the tear most expected as the Cyclone's passing game was just a tick above average generating 7.9 yards per attempt, to a schedule of teams that combined to allow 7.6. Clemson started the season slowly on offense. Through 7 games they averaged just 15.2ppg and stood at 4-3. The offense grew from that point on and Clemson averaged 36.3ppg in finishing the season 5-0. The defense remains strong as no team scored more than 27 points on them all season. I like Clemson in this one.

This game will be played in New York City. The weather looks to be fine with some showers in the morning, and in the 40s. Virginia Tech is one of those teams with significant opt outs. As it looks right now QB Braxton Burmeister, WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amari Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, and OG Lecitus Smith have all opted out. That will make for a tough game for the Hokies as they barely qualified for a bowl at full strength at 6-6. Speaking of barely qualified the Hokies did not have a win all season vs a team with a winning record. Maryland got pounded by the elite teams on their schedule. They lost to Iowa, Ohio St., Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. They beat everyone on their level, and with all the players out for Virginia Tech, the Hokies are simply not on their level entering this game. Make the play on Maryland.

West Virginia struggled this season when the offense had the ball. It is going to get a lot more difficult in this games vs the #4 rated Minnesota defense. Making that even more difficult is their best offensive player Leddie Brown has opted out and won't play. Minnesota has really had injury issues at running back. Mohamed Ibrahim was lost in game 1. Tyson Potts was lost in the Purdue game. Bryce Williams went down. Cam Wiley entered the portal, Despite all that Ky Thomas, and Mar'Keise Irving have down exceptionally well. The pair has generated 1,250 rushing yards on just 259 attempts. Tanner Morgan has not had a good year, but the continued success of the ground game has him throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt. West Virginia has lost the heart of their running attack and Minnesota has the #15 rated pass defense in the country. They have held their last 6 opponents to 250 total yards on average, and held all opposing offenses to 96 yards below their season average, ranking #5. I see a lot of advantages here for the Gophers, make the play on Minnesota.

This is a very interesting game. I don't think Mike Leech has ever accepted being booted out at Texas Tech. It was probably a bad move on the part of the school. Since Leach left the Red Raiders have not completed any of their last 12 seasons above .500 in the Big-12 Conference games. Bowl games are about motivation, and I think this game is a priority for Miss St. and the players are going to hear about it every day. Miss St. played a very strong schedule that included 6 ranked teams and finished 3-3. They lost to Arkansas in the last :22 seconds after missing 3 FG in the game, and in losses to Memphis and LSU they combined to out-gain those teams by 366 total yards. The Bulldogs defense despite the elite schedule of opponents held opposing offenses to 75 yards per game fewer than the offensive averages they faced, top 10 in the country. They had a yardage edge in 4 of their 5 losses. Texas Tech barely got here tat 6-6 and almost lost to SF Austin. Mike Leach loves to throw the ball and Texas Tech ranked #117 against the pass this season which is the worst of any bowl team. Texas Tech is down to its 3rd string QB who started the last 3 games in D. Smith, and he will be under duress the entire game. Revenge is a huge factor here as well. Make the play on Miss St.

The Louisville Cardinals barely made it to a Bowl game at 6-6. This despite the efforts of do everything QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham ran for 968 yards and threw for 2,733, and combined for 37 TD. It wasn't enough as Louisville was just 2-6 SU when playing against a Bowl bound team this season. Air Force is the #1 rushing team in the nation, and after watching Louisville get gauged for 362 yards at 6 yards per attempt, and allowing 52 points as a favorite vs Kentucky, they could be in trouble here. The Cards have not faced the option all season. The Mountain West is already 4-0 in Bowl games on the season. A team that finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 51-30 ATS in their last 81 Bowls. Many top situations ride with the Falcons in this one. Make the play on Air Force.

Auburn will get the semi-home field edge here playing in Birmingham. Will it be enough? The Tigers lost Bo Nix, and finished with 4 straight losses and averaged just 19ppg in the 4 games. TJ Finley has taken over but his status is in question as he is dealing with an ankle injury. Moreover, sever key players have opted out of this game for Auburn, and the circumstances here do not look like a team poised to deliver their best effort. Houston book-ended an opening game loss and an AAC Championship loss with 11 straight wins. The Cougars played Cincinnati tough losing the yardage battle by just 64 yards, and had a 1 turnover disadvantage. Auburn finished just 36 yards better than their opponents from the line of scrimmage, while Houston held a 117 yard edge, but Auburn faced a much more difficult schedule. The main concern here is I don't think Auburn envisioned playing on December 28th vs an AAC team. With the poor finish, a backup QB, and several key opt outs, is this a spot of the "A" game? I don't think so. Houston should be very motivated to go against a name SEC school and get their 12th win of the season. I like their chances here. Make the play on Houston.

Nevada had great expectations for this season. They have a prolific QB and all the pieces for a great season. They finished 8-4 which wasn't as good as expected. They now have lost their coach for the Bowl game, and their do-everything QB Carson Strong. This team is missing their top 5 wide receivers and tight ends, and missing pieces in the offensive line. The starter will be Nate Cox, who threw 20 passes this year 15 of which came against New Mexico St,and Idaho St. They can't run the ball at all and 83.2% of their yards this season have come in the air. W. Michigan lost 5 games, one was to Michigan, and in the other 4 losses they had 11 turnovers to their opponents 0. They also beat a ranked Pittsburgh team. They average 8 yards per pass attempt, but they can also run as they averaged 203 yards per game. I think this is a huge disappointment bowl for Fresno St., while Western Michigan will be glad to be here. Make the play on Western Michigan.

Georgia St finished with 3 straight wins to qualify for a Bowl game. They played a very difficult schedule with 5 of their losses coming to Army, NC, Auburn, App. St., and LA Lafayette. They had a huge win as well vs Coastal Carolina. The Panthers beat the mid-level teams on its schedule with a bruising ground game and finished in the top 10 in the country in rushing yards per game. A team finishing in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 50-30 ATS in their last 80 Bowl games. Ball St. has a brutal offense and on the season they were out-gained by 80 yards per game. Make the play on Georgia St.

The situation in Florida is pretty messy. The Gators will have a new coach next year, and a lot of players have opted out of the Bowl game vs Central Florida. They finished 6-6 and I see a lot of action in favor of UCF. Florida played a much tougher schedule and consider this. They out-gained Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida St., and Kentucky. They seemed to be the type of team that was good vs elite teams, and a no-show vs scrub teams. UCF is not anywhere close to the team they have been over the past several years. Florida out-gained a rugged schedule of teams by 109 yards per game. Central Florida by just 31. UCF plays at a speedy tempo, but because the offense and QB are mediocre, they have run 7 fewer plays than their opponents this season, instead of dominating with a  fast tempo it hurts them. They are also the 2nd worst team in ball security in the country. I think the Gators win easily here. Make the play on Florida.

The story line out of North Texas is pretty amazing. The Mean Green went 0-6 against FBS teams to start the season. They were out-scored 231-117 in the 6 games. Then this team suddenly started to get it, and there was a game to game improvement. The Mean Green went on to finish the season at 5-0 out-scoring opponents 182-85! That was a 65 point improvement on offense, and a 146 point improvement on defense. It may be the largest team transition in a current season ever. This team is playing close to home and should have a crowd advantage here, and there is no doubt this team will come in confident, and ready to play. They knocked of unbeaten at the time UTSA 45-23 in their last game of the season. Miami, Ohio is 6-6 but to their credit, they lost some tough games. This team is now in the favorite role, and has shown the lack of ability to close out games, which makes them a tough sell. North Texas is about 30 minutes from home, and this will turn out to be a home game, for a very motivated team. The MAC has fared extremely poorly in Bowl games as their record over the last 5 Bowl seasons is a woeful 5-23 SU, including 0-4 this year. Make the play on North Texas.

Wednesday December 22nd, 2021

It was a huge year for UT San Antonio finishing at 12-1. You have to sit back and think of what that 12-1 record would have been in the Mountain West Conference where San Diego St. finished 11-2. Conference USA saw bowl teams go 0-7 SU last year and the conference is just 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 bowl games. San Diego St. is all about defense as the Aztecs own the 14th best defense in the country. San Diego St. got blown out in the MWC Championship game, but they were missing several players due to covid-19. The only other loss was vs Fresno St. by 10 where they turned the ball over 3 times and Fresno St. did not have a turnover. UTSA seemed to wear down as the season progressed and were out-scored in their last 3 games, despite being +3 in turnovers. San Diego St. owns the bowl coaching experience edge here, which has been highly predictive over the years. Make the play on San Diego St.

Wyoming struggled with consistency all season. They took a 14-3 loss to New Mexico which was the only game the Lobos covered all season, and less than a month later beat Mountain West Conference Champion Uth St. 47-17. The Cowboys gained well over 600 yards in the win. When this team is at its best they are far and away the better team, and I would think playing in a Bowl game we should see that side of this team here. Kent St. relies on their offense to win games, as the Golden Flashes have allowed 41 or more points in 4 of its last 5 games. Wyoming also owns the bowl coach experience situation here as that has proven worthy over the years and is now 126-89-1 ATS (4-2 ATS this bowl season). There is also the fact that Wyoming played here already this season, and are used to the high altitude which could prove to impact Kent St. a lot more. Make the play on Wyoming.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

What a remarkable turnaround for Utah St. They finished 1-5 a year ago with all 5 losses by 19 or more points. This year they enter their Bowl Game at 10-3, and this will be a motivated group. They closed out by winning the MWC Championship game, and a team winning their Conference Championship has gone 78-53-5 ATS in their Bowl game. Oregon St. has been all over the place this season. They were good enough to beat Utah, and bad enough to lose to Colorado. The Aggies on the other hand over its last 6 games went 3-0 ATS as a dog winning them all out-right by a combined total of 66 points! Experience matters in Bowl games, and head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of how many Bowl games he has coached vs the opposing coach matters. Those with more bowl games coached are 122-87-1 ATS, and Utah St. holds a +6 in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

Liberty struggled down the stretch after starting the season 7-2. The Flames lost their last 3 games and the issues were ball control as the Flames in their final 3 games lost the turnover battle 11-0! Eastern Michigan wasn't much better as the Eagles posted a 1-2 record in their final 3 contests, with the win coming by 1 point. Eastern Michigan was out-gained by 49 yards per game on the season and Liberty out-gained a better schedule of opponents by 113 yards, and have an elite dual threat QB in Malik Willis. Eastern Michigan was a longtime doormat but under Chris Creighton they have gone to 3 Bowls and while they are 0-3 SU they are 3-0 ATS and lost the 3 games by a combined 10 points. Motivation is key in Bowl games, and I think Liberty with Willis and a host of others returning had bigger bowls in mind, and EMU is not going to be an inspiring opponents for them. Willis did not have nearly the year he had last year as his numbers are down everywhere. One big issue for this Liberty team has been the offensive line which gave up 51 sacks on the season. Eastern Michigan always looks like they are on the bad side of a mismatch, but Chris Creighton is the master of getting more out of less. Consider he is 30-9-1 ATS as a dog at EMU. He is also 14-0 ATS as a rod dog coming off a loss! Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

I'm going to start this one out with somewhat of a trick question. Who was the best team in the Pac-12 this season? It was BYU. The Cougars finished 5-0 against Pac-12 teams this season, and also played Virginia, Baylor, Boise St., and Utah St. That is one tough schedule with a team that finished 10-2 and #12 in the Bowl Championship Series rankings. Despite all that bettors are lining up on UAB to the tune of 80% of bets. The Cougars bested those opponents by 72 total yards per game at 1.4 yards per play. UAB had a nice season finishing at 8-4. One interesting side note. BYU was favored by -8.5 vs USC in its last game, and now less on a neutral field to UAB? UAB was out-scored by 3 points a game this season vs a team playing in a bowl. One of the issues for UAB this season is they rank 3rd in the nation in penalty yards at 91 per game and can ill afford those type of mistakes here vs an elite opponent. The Cougars fit the bowl situation that favors a coach that has coached more bowl games then the opposing coach which is now 122-87-1 ATS. Make the play on BYU.

The story line for this game is obvious. UTEP is a program that won 5 games the last 4 years, and here they are at 7-5 and in a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and last won a bowl game over 50 years ago. Do you think this is going to be a motivated team? Fresno St. lost their coach, and he will be replaced by an interim, but interim bowl coaches are not a factor of the outcome as they are around 50/50 over the years. The issue of the day is who will start at QB for Fresno St.? QB Jake Haener originally opted out and into the transfer portal, but decided to withdraw. Interim head coach Lee Marks will not disclose which of 3 potential starting QBs will actually start the game. My best guess is they all play, or at least 2 of them play. I like the play on UTEP here, because if Haener plays I like UTEP some, but if he doesn't I like UTEP a lot. I am going to play UTEP here. If Haener doesn't play, or if the QB duties are split the value of the play just increases. The more motivated team here in either case is UTEP. It is a huge game for them. Make the play on UTEP.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

This is the only covid-19 postponed game all season as USC will take on California to close out the Pac-12 regular season. This has been a brutal season for USC. This team has really struggled to find its way back into the national limelight. USC has moved the ball fairly well but the defense has been really bad. That is where Cal has the edge in this game, as they have great numbers when QB Chase Garbers lines up under center. USC's offense has not been as good without the best offensive player in the conference WR Drake London. The USC offense is also not quite as good with Jaxson Dart at QB, so a couple missing ingredients extends the Cal advantage in this game. USC is also likely to be without top RB Keaontay Ingram. Suddenly, an above average USC offense is below average. I'm not sure if it is the name on the jersey that says USC that has held this line down, but this line is off significantly and I will make the play on Cal.

Iowa wasn't supposed to be here, but things broke right for them, and here they are. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 on the season, and they did it entirely on defense. Iowa may be the first 10-2 P5 conference team to ever finish 10-2 while being out-gained by opponents by 17 yards per game. Their very good defense along with a +13 turnover advantage on the season is what got them here. The problem here is the Michigan offense is as good as the Iowa defense, and when you turn that around, the Iowa offense isn't even nearly on the same level as the Michigan defense. Michigan has out-gained their opponents by 132 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. That is a huge advantage. Make the play on Michigan.

I don't think too many had Wake Forest vs Pitt for the ACC Championship Game back at the beginning of the season. They both enter the game at 10-2. These teams are both very similar on offense. They don't run the ball particularly well, but they have tremendous passing attacks. If you look at both offenses they are pretty much dead even. The difference comes on defense. Wake Forest is out-gaining opponents 484-428 or by 56 yards a game and Pitt 513-353 or by 160 yards per game. Wake gave up 543 yards to Clemson, and 4 of their last 6 opponents went for 42 or more, so the defense if anything may even be regressing. Looking at the 5 common opponents this season Wake went 3-2 and Pitt 5-0. The difference was all defense, as both scored similar points but Wake gave up 9 more points per game. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

Everyone seems to want Cincinnati to stumble. They have passed every test put in front of them this season. The offense and defense are both elite. They will take on an 11-1 Houston team. But in NASA parlance, "Houston, We have a problem." That problem is while the Cougars finished the season 11-1 they had 0 wins vs the top 50! I'm not saying they are not a good team, they are, but they have not faced a team this year that should have beaten them, and what they are going to see on the field this week is completely different. Many think the pressure will be on Cincinnati, but for that matter it has been on them all season. They stepped up every time they had to. I think you are going to see the best of this team on Saturday. They have a chance to make history, and they aren't going leave a bit of energy off the field. They know style points are important, so a back door cover here is not a likely scenario. I see a 2 TD+ win here for the Bearcats. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is a lot on the line here for both teams. Georgia ran the regular season table finishing 12-0, while Alabama had 1 loss at 11-1. Additionally, Alabama played a lot of close games and were lucky to get out of the Iron Bowl game vs Auburn with a win. This is the best chance Georgia has had to beat Alabama. It is also their best chance for a National Championship as well. Win or lose Georgia will be in the playoffs, for Alabama it is a must win. I think both of these offenses are elite, and the big difference here is the Georgia defense allowed fewer than 7 points a game on the season, and no team produced better than 17 against them. (Last team to allow 17 or fewer points to every team was 1979 Texas). Alabama is almost always the team with the best defense, and that simply is not the case this year for the Tide. The defense is good, but it is not on the level the Georgia defense is and that should be the difference in this game. Bryce Young will be under more pressure in this game than he has felt all season. Alabama has beaten Georgia 6 straight times. I think this is going to be the end of that. Make the play on Georgia.

I think there is a lot of hidden value in this one. UCLA demolished their rival USC and put up 62 points and 609 yards of offense. Cal has actually been the better team in yards per play differential this season. The other point of value is the Cal loss to lowly Arizona 10-3. Cal had over 24 players and coaches out with covid-19, including their QB. That is the biggest impact that covid has had in a college football game all season. They came back and crushed Stanford last week. The Cal defense is finally living up to expectations allowing 15.5ppg in its last 6 and has not failed to cover a game since October the 2nd. I like the points here. Cal can make it to a Bowl with 2 wins in their last 2 games. Full effort should be the case here, and not so much for UCLA. Make the play on California.

This is not only a huge rivalry game, but with both teams at 10-1 and still some hope of making the playoffs it will be an intense battle. This is usually an offensive showcase, but the Oklahoma Sooners offense is not anything like it has been the past few years. They have managed 14 points vs Baylor and 28 vs Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. has one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys have held opponents to 13 fewer points than they average on the season, and no team has scored more than 24 points against them all season. Oklahoma has a huge gap between home and road offensively. The Sooners have put up 41ppg at home but just 21.5ppg on the road. While it has been typical over the past few years that in pretty much every game the Sooner offense is the best unit on the field. That won't be the case here it will be the Oklahoma St. defense. The Sooners are out-gaining opponents by just 0.2 yards per play on the road. Coach Gundy gets his teams ready to play in a favorite role where they are 82-54 ATS. Oklahoma St. is currently 7th in the playoff standings. Baylor is #8. A win here and a win in the B-12 Championship game over Baylor would leave Oklahoma St. 3 points from an unbeaten season, and at 12-1 they are going to be in the hunt. I think they are the better team, with a lot to play for, and have always played well at home. My NCAAF GOM IS ON OKLAHOMA ST.

The fate of the Old Dominion team changed when they finally had seen enough of QB D.J. Mack, and replaced him with Hayden Wolff. Old Dominion began the season at 0-5 against FBS teams, and they have since gone 4-0 and have a lot of feel good and momentum. A win here will get them bowl eligible. The Monarchs have also covered 4 straight. Old Dominion will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country. Charlotte allows 7.1 yards per play and the Old Dominion defense is pretty good. This game looks like at least a comfortable 2 TD win, and probably more. Make the play on Old Dominion.

I`m not sure it was supposed to end this way but David Cutliffe has gone full circle at Duke. He inherited perhaps the worst P5 program in the country, and made the program viable. Duke went from doormat to a team that won 7 or more games in 5 of 6 years, but he is leaving right where he started off. Duke has a total of 5 wins the last 2 years and over their last they have been outscored 51-15 on average per game. Miami, Fla. has lost 3 of their last 7 games by a combined total of 8 points. That is how close they are to being 7-0. Miami has scored 28 points or more in all 7, and against a Duke team that allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt, the Hurricanes are going to get a lot more. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

This is a big game for both teams as the winner will become bowl eligible. While both teams are 5-6 there is a big difference between the teams. Simply put, Maryland is the much better team. The 6 Maryland losses came against the top 6 Big-10 teams. They have played a very difficult schedule. Maryland is 5-0 vs a team on Rutgers level by an average of 19ppg. Rutgers was beaten by 6 Big-10 teams by an average final score of 34-8. Maryland has not only played a more aggressive schedule, they have out-gained opponents from the line of scrimmage by a lot more than Rutgers. Make the play on Maryland.

The season did not go quite as planed for North Carolina. They have a very good QB in Sam Howell, but the defense was not up to a high enough standard and they enter their finale at just 6-5. North Carolina has allowed 41.2ppg to their last 5 FBS opponents. The offense just can't overcome that week after week. The NC State defense may be the best they have faced all season. The Wolfpack allows just 4.8 yards per play and the pass defense is 1.2 yards per play better than the schedule of opponents they have faced this season. This game also fits a situation that is 101-64 ATS. Make the play on NC State,

This will be a tough spot for Arkansas to find its "A" game. The Razorbacks took Alabama to the wire last week and emptied the tank in doing so, especially emotionally. Arkansas has played a very difficult schedule and this game following the big one last week vs Alabama provides a good spot for Missouri to stay close. Missouri QB Connor Bazlak is not to bad and Arkansas will once again be without the services of Jalen Catalon who makes a huge difference in the Arkansas secondary.Missouri has been playing much better of late as the Tigers are 3-1 in their last 4 and has covered 3 straight. Think this is too many points. Make the play on Missouri.

Nebraska has had a very difficult season. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 but have not lost a game by more than 9 points all season.This will be the first time in NCAA Football history that a 3-8 team is favored over a 9-2 team. The previous 82 times this has occurred the 3-8 team was never better than a +7.5 point favorite. Nebraska took a blow with QB Adrien Martinez out for this game. Martinez is an experienced and very good QB, and he is also a top runner. The Nebraska offense is going to take a hit facing a very strong Iowa defense. There is also some hidden value here as the Nebraska special teams are brutal and Iowa has one of the best special teams in NCAA Football. Add it all up and Iowa is the choice here in this one.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

UCLA and USC share a city rivalry. The Bruins should have won last year, and I think this is one of those circled games. The Trojans will be handicapped in this one as their top 2 offensive players QB Kedon Slovis, and WR Drake London are out. USC has 16 players on the injury report which has devastated this team. UCLA started strong, but are 3-3 in their last 6 with all 3 losses coming to teams at the top of the conference. They have handled everyone else. The Trojans are a negative team allowing more yards per play than they generate, and down to a freshman QB without a top target is going to be difficult. UCLA is positive from the line of scrimmage and the huge edge comes in the passing game, as USC has not been able to defend a competent passing attack all season. There really isn't any home field advantage here as both teams play in the same city. Coach Kelly has seen his teams go 17-2 ATS off a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers, and this game fits in a 76-31 ATS situation favoring the Bruin's as well. Make the play on UCLA.

The Wisconisn Badgers started the season 0-3, but have run off 7 straight. Wisconsin was lacking a running game and they started giving Allen the ball and the offense started having success running the ball as they have for years. The defense has allowed just 7.3ppg in their last 6. You won't find value on a team doing that. Nebraska is hidden solidly under the radar with a 3-7 record. Their stats would indicate a top 25 team, but they have 7 losses. They have out-gained those 7 opponents combined, and their losses include playoff hopefuls Oklahoma, Ohio St., Michigan, and Michigan St. None of the 7 losses have come by more than 9 points, so things could look a lot different for this team. I believe Nebraska is the better overall team and Wisconsin is going to be in for a game. Make the play on Nebraska.

The wheels have come off for Indiana. The Hoosiers appeared to have things turned around with a pair of Bowl appearances in the last 2 years, but rising expectations have been derailed. Indiana is not a team that can just reload, and they lost their top 3 players to the NFL a year ago. Having QB Michael Penix back from a torn ACL a year ago may have set unrealistic expectations, and at 2-8 on the season, and 1 of just 3 Power 5 teams that has yet to beat another Power 5 team, the season has been a disaster. Penix is doubtful here and is still nursing a shoulder injury. Jack Tuttle took over but he has just a 51.7% completion percentage with 2 TDs and 5 INT's. Donavon McCulley took over when Tuttle was injured and completed just 42.7% of his passes. It all coes down to no good options. The Hoosiers did score 35 against Maryland but against 6 other Big-10 opponents they scored a total of 38! The Gophers have had some offensive issues of their own, but have above average receivers, that need to get the ball more. The biggest area of consistency for Minnesota has been defense. The last 4 opponents have seen none generate more than 277 yards, and Indiana is going to really struggle to move the ball here regardless of who is at QB. They may not score a lot, but they likely won't need to. Make the play on Minnesota.

A lot of bettors shy away from very big point spreads. I never look at it that way. The size of the line has nothing to do with winning and losing, it is the value. Umass is a true bottom feeder, and Army beat this team 63-7 in 2019. Army has shown no mercy when playing very bad teams as they have beaten this number many times in recent years. Walt Bell has really struggled trying to get the UMass program competitive. The road has been a colossal struggle. Walt Bell has played 14 road games since taking over at UMass and his team is 2-12 ATS losing by an average score of 50.5-8.1. This year his team has played 4 road games and opponents have on average won by 48.8ppg, with no opponent winning by fewer than 44! Yes the line is huge for this game, but I see Army winning here by 45 plus points. Make the play on Army.

The look of this Texas team right now is brutally ugly. The Horns have dropped 5 straight games and a once-proud blue-blood program is looking to be at rock bottom right now. Who wants any part of this team right now? It has dramatically impacted the betting line as Texas opened a -2.5 point favorite, and is now a 2.5 point underdog. This is a great spot to buy low. Taking a look at the 5 games lost, 4 were to the best 4 teams in the Big-12. After that gauntlet of high-profile teams, the Horns lost to lowly Kansas 57-56. A closer look shows Texas dominated that game out-gaining the Jayhawks 574-420. That was despite the fact that Texas lost the turnover battle 4-0. One of the turnovers was a pick-6. West Virginia doesn't have the offense to stay with Texas, and the Mountaineers are no bargain at 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. A team that has a winning percentage of .333 or worse and is posted as a home favorite and facing a team better than .333 is just 395-504-14 ATS at 43.9%. That goes to 120-174-9 ATS to a line of less than -4. I see tremendous line value here with Texas. My game of the year is on Texas. (+3  -125).

The Stanford Cardinal have struggled, and last week they played without QB Tanner McKee. It was a total disaster as the Cardinal lost 52-7 and passed for 85 yards at 3.6 yards per attempt. McKee is very unlikely yo play this week and Stanford head coach is going to go with freshman Ari Patu. It would be the first time a freshman QB has ever started a game in the Shaw era. Oregon St. has appeared to slip lately but it has been a tale of two teams this season for the Beavers. They are 1-4 at home, but 4-0 at home where they have averaged winning by 17.8ppg. Stanford didn't cross mid-field the entire 1st half last week and scored 7 points on just 167 yards of total offense. Patu will be the 4th different starting QB for Stanford this year, so call him the 4th string QB. West and Sanders have not gotten it done when called on. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

Mississippi St. comes into this game just 5-4 on the season, but a closer look reveals things are better than they appear. They were no match for Alabama, but their other 3 losses came by 2 vs Memphis, 3 by LSU, and 3 vs Arkansas. Most telling i the yardage edge they had in those games which was an amazing 1440-982. They out-gained all 3 opponents by an average of better than 150 yards per contest. This is a team that has averaged 18 more snaps per game more than their opponent, and is where a lot of the hidden value lies. This team is good defensively, and certainly can play from behind if necessary. Auburn QB Bo Nix is completing less than 60% of his passes and the Auburn passing game is a tick below average. Miss St. could realistically be 8-1 coming into this game, or certainly better than the 5-4 record they present here, which has their true ability well under the radar. Too many points here, make the play on Mississippi St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are a perfect 9-0 on the season. There is an ominous sign for this team. Despite reputation, and being one of just 2 P5 teams in the country to have a perfect record they are currently ranked #8 to be in the playoffs. There is good reason for that. This is not the same Oklahoma team we have seen in recent years. They have yet to face a team in the top 25, and despite of that they have won games by the slimmest of margins. They have had one possession wins vs Tulane, Nebraska, W. Virginia, Texas, and Kansas St. They have out-gained opponents by just 95 yards per game. Not typical of an elite 9-0 team. Baylor has out-gained their schedule of opponents by an equal 93 yards per game. The Baylor yards per play differential exceeds that of Oklahoma. It is by reputation and a 9-0 record that has Oklahoma as a road favorite in this one. The Bears got caught ast week in a look ahead in an upset loss to TCU. Expect their best game of the year in this one. Oklahoma has yet to play the top 3 teams in the B-12 which are Baylor, Iowa St., and Oklahoma St. (2 of them on the road). I think this is a toss up game, so adding in home field advantage and getting several points, makes the Bears a live dog here. Baylor has been knocking on the door the last 3 years vs Oklahoma, losing by 11, then 7, then 3 and covering them all, this year I think they crash through with the upset. Make the play on Baylor.

The Temple Owls have had a very trying season, and this team looks like they have packed it in. The Owls last 4 games have been complete wipe outs as the Owls have been out-scored 180-27. Houston brings in an 8 game winning streak and is averaging 39.1ppg on the season, but should be able to exceed those numbers vs the hapless Owls. The Owls offense has seen a lot of garbage time against non-starters over the 4 weeks and still have managed to average 243 yards per game, and just 6.8ppg. The Owls 6 losses have come by an average of 37.5ppg! Make the play on Houston.

A lot will be fooled by the records of these teams. Tennessee is much better than their 4-4 record, as they are above average on both sides of the ball. Kentucky got off to a 6-0 start but have been exposed the last 2 weeks by Miss St., and Georgia. The Wildcats were mild cats on offense producing 459 total yards in the 2 games combined. Kentucky has beaten itself a lot with 3 or more turnovers in 3 games already on the season. The 3 turnovers a game equals the amount of total turnovers Tennessee has made over the last 6 games! Tennessee lost last year when they went into halftime with a 203-75 yardage edge, yet trailed 17-3. Kentucky had 2 pick-6s in the first half. They certainly should be motivated here to return the favor. Tennessee has gone 31-3 SU vs Kentucky the last 34 games, and are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to Lexington. Tennessee is off a bye, and the last time Kentucky won 2 in a row vs Tennessee is in 1976! Tennessee will stop the Kentucky ground game, as they lead the country with 70 tackles for a loss this season. Tennessee has fared much better vs common opponents, and the final score vs Alabama last week was misleading as the Vols trailed by 7 in the 4th quarter. This game also fits a 122-57 ATS situation for Tennessee. Make the play on Tennessee.

Both these teams enter this game at 4-4, and this game will certainly have Bowl implications, with the winner taking a leg up, and the loser left below .500. Western Kentucky is so different than they were a year ago. Last year they were in defensive games, this year they have a potent offense. The Hilltoppers are 3rd in the country averaging 533 yards per game, as well as 13rd in the country in yards per play margin. This is a passing attack that will really test the back 7 of Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are going to have to score a lot of points here, and after having a pair of QB's already leave the team, current starting QB Chase Cunningham is questionable with an undisclosed injury or issue. This line is light because Middle Tennessee is off a pair of big blowout wins by 31 and 25 points. The problem is the 2 teams are both bottom 5 or 10 in the country, and this is a whole different opponent. Interesting note on last week for Middle Tennessee. They beat Southern Miss 35-10, but the box score shows they were held to 284 total yards. They scored 3 non-offensive TD's in the game, so the offense generated just 10 points. There is a lot of hidden value in this game. Middle Tennessee has defended the pass well, but they have yet to face a team that throws for close to 400 yards a game. W. Kentucky plays at a very high tempo and as it is Middle Tennessee is -11 plays per game vs their opponents this year. That could be higher this week. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

Here we go again. These games always look horrible for the dog, but have a huge and long history of covering. I played Navy for the same reason this year vs Cincinnati, and will play them again based on this. Military teams run the ball almost every down. It shortens the game, and makes large point spreads very difficult to take down despite the talent differential. Play on any Military team that is a dog of 20 or more points. They are 82-37-4 ATS in this role. Make the play on Navy.

Temple is 3-4 on the season, but the schedule has more to do with that than anything else. The Owls beat Wagner, and Akron among their 3 wins. They played a perfect unexpected game against Memphis in a 3 point upset win. Their last 3 games saw them get out-scored 135-24 turning the ball over 9 times and failing to generate more than 283 yards in any of the 3. ECU is 4-4 on the season. ECU has lost to South Carolina by 3, Central Florida by 4, and Houston by 7. Temple is a very bad team, and ECU can move the ball offensively with both the run and the pass. The Owls are poor on both sides of the ball and won't keep the pace here. Make the play on East Carolina.

While this is a natural in-state rivalry, Kansas has now lost 12 straight times to Kansas St. Kansas St. has not allowed Kansas to score more than 21 points in any of the 12 games, and has averaged allowing just 14.3ppg. The Jayhawks this year in their 7 games vs FBS opponents stand at 0-7 with an average scoring margin of -32.4ppg. While the line appears steep here, the ingredients and history show it isn't large enough. Last year these teams played 7 common opponents in which Kansas was out-scored by 36.3 points per game and the 4 common opponents this year show Kansas at -31 points per game. Kansas St. has lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. and were competitive in all 3 games. The distance between these 2 teams is beyond the line in this one. Make the play on Kansas St.

North Carolina lost its unstoppable running game from a year ago, but this team is still a strong offense. The defense is playing reasonably well and you wonder why this team has lost to Florida St., Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech already. The Tar Heels are out-gaining opponents by 92 yards per game, but they have been guilty of 3 turnovers in 2 of their 3 losses. Notre Dame has a 6-1 record on the season yet they are posted as a dog at home to 4-3 North Carolina. The Irish have turned opponents over 16 times in 7 games and that is exactly what the Tra Heels have struggled with all season. The Heels could be letting down here as well. What was thought to be a Heisman QB, and a certain New Year's Bowl game, or playoff game has all been lost already. Meanwhile at 6-1 Notre Dame continues to improve and has everything to play for. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This is strictly a system and situational play. I have a situation on Oregon St. that is 103-46 -4 ATS. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Kansas St. Wildcats are 4-3 and this is a huge game at home. They need to win here and find 1 more win and this team will be Bowl eligible. TCU is 3-4 and in trouble, because they have games with Baylor, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. ahead and this looks like their 2nd losing season in the last 3 years. This program has been slipping, and they are not the defensive team they used to be year after year. I think Kansas St. has more to play for right now and they are at home where they are always very competitive. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

It has been a long time since Rutgers was looking to be a .500 team after 8 games, and that opportunity is in front of them again. Greg Schiano made Rutgers relevant and he looks like he can do it again. Illinois played in a 9 overtime game last week. That had to be physically draining, as well as mentally and emotionally. Now they take on an equal team that is coming in fresh off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare. Illinois was a 24.5 point dog to Penn St. and won. I think this team is going to be mentally and emotionally absent this week. Illinois also has QB issues as Artur Sitkowski is out for the year and Peters has just never gotten it done at Illinois. Make the play on Rutgers.

Louisville is 3-3 and while they have a powerful offense, the defense has given all of it back. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games but they have lost 2 of them. They are allowing 34.4ppg to FBS opponents. Boston College has lost 2 straight, but both the losses came against strong defensive teams, and they have averaged over 40 points per game in their 4 wins. Louisville has NC State and Clemson on deck, and their level of focus here may not be their best. Boston College lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their last 2 games. Louisville has yielded close to 500 yards a game in their 5 contests vs FBS opponents, and it is tough trusting a team in the favorite role that plays absolutely no defense. The back door is wide open here, at the least. Louisville has not relished this role as they are 10-21 ATS as a conference home favorite in their last 31 coming off a loss, and that becomes 1-10 ATS if their opponent is off 2 straight losses. Make the play on Boston College.

Hard to back a team that is 0-5 SU vs FBS teams which is the case for California. What makes it even more ironic is Cal has had a turnover advantage on the season. Colorado has had some bad games at 2-4, but one of their losses was 10-7 vs Texas A&M. I think that says they have a higher ceiling in this game. Colorado is allowing fewer than 20ppg so getting better than a TD here with the much better defense in the game is an attractive proposition. Cal has no home field advantage as they are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite failing to cover by nearly 13ppg. Cal averages just 23ppg so getting enough here with a below average offense is not an easy task. Colorado has gone 20-10 ATS as a dog under coach Karl Dorrell. Make the play on Colorado.

This game in a lot of ways is important to both teams. Wake Forest returned 20 starters, and have a dynamic QB, and come into this game 6-0. The triple option is tough for a lot of teams, but when a team has 2 weeks to prepare for it, often they do a better job. Wake can move to 7-0 with Duke next week, and a pair of wins will have the Demon Deacons at 8-0 and heading to North Carolina for a huge game. Army started 4-0 but have lost consecutive games to Ball St., and Wisconsin. Their game last week was very physical, and it may show in this game. This is a highly motivated spot for Wake to remain unbeaten, and they have beaten Army 9 of the last 11 meetings. Army has managed just 16.5ppg against Wake, so they have done a very solid job with the option, with lesser teams. I think Wake is the odds on favorite to win the ACC right now. Army has 4 wins all coming vs bad teams that have combined to go 7-19. I like Wake Forest in this one.

Northwestern had a big season a year ago, but this is not yet the type of program that can lose a lot of quality players and reload. Northwestern returned as one of the least experienced teams in the country, with just 4 starters on both sides of the ball. The best team the Wildcats have seen this season is Nebraska who beat them 56-7. Michigan is 6-0 and is a top contender for making the playoffs. The Wolverines have one of the top offenses in NCAA Football, and the defense is also rock solid. I think Michigan is going to run away with this one and cover rather easily. Make the play on Michigan.

Things couldn't be going better for the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are ranked #2 in the country and have scored 50+ points in 2 straight games. The Navy is just the opposite as things could hardly get worse. This game looks like a complete blowout, but if history has anything to say about it, then these numbers will get your attention. Anytime a military team is getting 20 or more points they are hard to cover against. The Army, Navy, and Air Force all run the triple-option which consumes clock. It makes it hard to take down big numbers. A military team getting 20 or more have logged an 81-37-4 ATS mark. That is long term, and powerful. Make the play on Navy.

The UTEP Miners are off to a sizzling 5-1 start to the season. While that sounds like a bad program turning the corner, I see a whole different picture. This team has played a schedule that ranks far below the 130 FBS teams there are, I would put them at 175 or so considering FCS teams. The 5 wins have come against Bethune Cookman, New Mexico St., New Mexico, Southern Miss, and Old Dominion. Those 5 teams are a combined -17 vs FBS teams, and the lone win has occurred because 2 of the teams played each other. UTEP despite what I consider the weakest schedule in the country, has played even at the line of scrimmage. Louisiana Tech has a 1 point loss at Miss St., a 2 point loss vs SMU, and a 7 point loss at NC State. They generated 440 yards of offense per game in those 3 losses to upper tier teams. The schedule differential is vast in this one, and it lends itself to a line that is clearly not enough. The 5 UTEP wins are vs an average opponent that ranks at the bottom of the FBS. I like Louisiana Tech in this one.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-0 start, but this team doesn't look nearly as explosive as recent editions. For the first time in many years Oklahoma has an average passing game that generates 7.9 yards per attempt vs a schedule of teams allowing 8.0 to an average team. The Sooners are better suited for running the ball. TCU is not the defensive team they have trended as for many years. This is a team that has allowed 31 or more points in 4 straight games, and the Sooners should have no trouble getting to 30 here. TCU however has also scored 34 points or more in its last 4 games, so I think they have enough offense to stay inside a rather lofty number here. Make the play on TCU.

The sense of urgency has become real for Alabama after a surprise loss to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide knows another loss puts any playoff opportunity in immediate jeopardy, and Nick Saban teams are now 16-2 SU following a loss. The Tide has won by an average of 25 points per game in its last 5 off a loss, so expect a true sense of urgency in this one. Saban has certainly figured out the Mike Leach offense, as they buried Miss St. last year 41-0. It was the only time a Mike Leach team has ever been shutout. Alabama off a loss has been downgraded, while Miss St. winning last week gave them an upgrade. Alabama was a -19 point favorite vs A&M and Miss St. was +7. Add those two games together and the difference is 26 points. That shows a one week bias, and the adjustment is absurd. Alabama beat A&M at the line of scrimmage 522-379. That translates into a double-digit win. Over the last 5 seasons a home dog of 10.5 to 21 points is 14-42 ATS off a win vs a conference rival and playing a conference rival. Whatever this Alabama team has in its arsenal this season will be on display Saturday. Make the play on Alabama.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

The Texas A&M Aggies knocked off previously unbeaten Alabama last week who was also the #1 team in the nation. That sets up a huge letdown spot for the Aggies here, who are 4-2 and not blowing teams out. The Aggies have faced 4 FBS teams and have been out-scored by them 91=83. They have 2 wins both by 3 points. Missouri is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, so they are not drawing much attention, but they certainly provide value here. The Tigers are now 0-9 ATS going back to last year, and if there is one of those games that "stinks" this week, this is the one as the Tigers are allowing 38 points and 500 yards on the season. Not a good sign when a team beats a Saban coached team as a dog and turns around to be a favorite in their next game as they are 6-9 ATS, including 0-5 ATS if they scored 35 points or more in that win. This one looks ugly. Make the play on Missouri.

The Michigan Wolverines are finally achieving what the roster looks like this year. The Wolverines are clicking in all facets of the game, with an offense that is elite, and a defense that is elite. Add to that the fact that they have turned the ball over just 1 time all season, and have the 2nd best special teams in the country, and they get my #4 ranking. Nebraska has already lost 3 times to teams far below Michigan. The stats show an average of 600 yards a game vs Fordham, Northwestern, and Buffalo, which skews realistic numbers. Nebraska is also #128 in special teams and Michigan excels in that area, offering some hidden value. Michigan has the edge here on all levels, and I will make the play on Michigan.

The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a terrific 4-0 start to the season. They almost lost for the first time last time on the field when they needed to rally their way to a 24-22 win. The Cowboy's offense is below average in both the running and passing game, and it is likely they fare worse in this one because the Air Force runs the ball almost all the time, and will limit the number of plays in this game with a moving clock. Wyoming's best attribute is defending the pass, which unfortunately for them is not going to come into play very often here. Air Force has been running the ball for years out of the triple-option, and may have their best running game ever. The Falcons have rushed for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. When a team is playing at home and has rushed for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games they are 83-62-2 ATS, with better subsets. I think Wyoming is a "false" 4-0, and they will be exposed in this one in a big way. Make the play on Air Force.

I am buying in on the hype around the Beavers. They will take to the Pac-12 road to take on 2-3 Washington St. The beavers are 4-1 and have won and covered 4 straight, and own big wins vs Washington, and USC. Washington St. has little to show on offense as the Cougars are averaging 17.8 points per game vs FBS competition and have turned the ball over 9 times in its last 3 games. Oregon St. has a well above average offense that steadily improves each week, and the defense is now a tick above average. This Oregon St. team is a player in the Pac-12, and a win at Washington St. will continue building the resume. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Bowling Green Falcons may be the biggest surprise of the year so far. They are now the only perfect ATS team in the country at 5-0. The bandwagon is getting full as bettors flock toward a 5-0 ATS team and has now raised the bar of expectations. This game opened at Bowling Green -12 and is now as high as -15. The Falcons were a pick-'em against Murray St. at home just 3 weeks ago, and they are now over-valued. Think about it. The Falcons average fewer than 15 points a game vs their 4 FBS opponents and have topped out at 20 in the 4 games. Akron had lopsided games vs Auburn and Ohio St. that has their stats skewed some. Just can't play Bowling Green laying more than they average. Make the play on Akron.

The media hype has pretty much embraced the quick turnaround in Sparty, as Michigan St. is off to a 5-0 start to the season. I'm not on the bandwagon but the hype machine on Michigan St., along with the bubble-bursting at Rutgers who have lost 2 straight after a 3-0 start has the line here way out of balance. Both these teams are much improved from a year ago, but Rutgers played Michigan to a 1 score game at the Big House, and were destroyed by an Ohio St. team that is my #2 team in NCAA Football. Michigan St. came away with wins vs W. Kentucky, and Nebraska, despite being out-gained by both. These teams are a lot closer than the line, and Rutgers has a chance for an outright win here. Make the play on Rutgers.

LSU got a big win at Miss St. last week. Perhaps the biggest news is that Bo Nix may not be the starting QB for Auburn. Bo Nix was pulled, and he was seen sulking on the sidelines. The optics and problems at Auburn are under the spotlight. It very well may mean former LSU QB TJ Finley gets the start for Auburn. The LSU offensive line are going to be going all out and I think they already have the edge. The bigger reason is playing in Death Valley at night is a death sentence for opponents. Since 2005 LSU is 45-4 in home night games, and 102 thousand plus fans are very loud. I don't think this is a good spot for Auburn with QB issues. Make the play on LSU.

Oregon St. Coach Johnathon Smith has turned the Oregon ST. program around. The Beavers are off to a 3-1 start, and had a huge victory last week when they went to USC and won for the first time since 1960. They didn't just win, they went for over 500 yards and the final score was 45-27. This is a team with a solid defense and an elite offense which has generated 7.1 yards per play vs a schedule of teams that allow 5.6. Washington opened the season with a 13-7 loss to Montana as a 23 point favorite, and were taken apart by Michigan. They beat Cal last week in a very misleading game. Washington won 31-24 but were out-gained 457-326. Cal mad a lot of mistakes and turned the ball over 3 times.Oregon St. has lost 9 straight to Washington, by an average margin of 23 points per game. This is the season for Oregon St. to exercise some demons, and you know they are not only good, they are confident, and have the home crowd this time around. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 4-0 start and the offense has not taken off yet. Oklahoma has been held to 16 and 23 points the last 2 games, typically a recipe for losses with this team. The good news is the defense has allowed 39 total points in their last 3 contests. The Sooners have been ordinary on offense thus far, but that will change. Kansas St. is in off a 31-20 loss to Oklahoma St. They will once again be without QB Skylar Thompson. Without Thompson the Wildcats have turned to their running game, but that has been the best part of this Sooner team thus far, defending the run. Oklahoma allows 2.4 yards per carry to a schedule of teams generating 3.6 yards per carry. Think this game is a mismatch and will make the play on Oklahoma.

The Bowling Green Falcons are 2-2 which looks a lot better than what we have seen from this team in recent years. They beat Minnesota last week as a 30 point under dog. Letdown? I'm not sure, but my take is there doesn't have to be. Bowling Green gained 192 yards in that game, but Minnesota turned the ball over 3 times. It hasn't been good for a team coming off a straight up win as a dog of 30 or more points as they are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their next game. Kent St. is just 1-3 but the losses are to Texas A&M, Maryland, and Iowa. They have been on average a 17 point dog in those 3 games. Kent St. has a very good offense, and strong running game, and their stats have been dwarfed by the level of competition they have faced this season. Make the play on Kent St.

The Michigan Wolverines are 4-0 and have really been dominating opponents. The Wolverines have out-gained opponents by 155 yards per game and out-scored them on average 40-12. They look the part of a playoff team through 4 games. There is a caveat. Michigan beat 3 cupcakes and a decent team in Rutgers all at home. Rutgers is improved but still not a high level team. The Rutgers defense, on the road held the Michigan offense to 112 rushing yards. This after Michigan gained over 1000 yards on the ground in their first 3 games, and held Michigan to 2 first downs in the 2nd half. Michigan does not look the same if they can't run the ball, and Wisconsin is allowing 23 rushing yards a game on the season, and last week held Notre Dame to 3 rushing yards on 32 carries. Michigan has not turned the ball over all season, while Wisconsin has done so 9 times. Wisconsin is looking at potentially starting their season 1-3, and basically it will be over so a huge effort is expected at home. Since 2016 there have been 9 unranked teams facing a top 15 team as a favorite. Those games saw 7 of the 9 win the game, and the 2 losses were both by 1 point! This is Michigan's first road game of the year, and it won't be easy vs a Wisconsin team playing to keep their season alive. Wisconsin is 61-8 at home in their last 69 and is a very difficult place to win. Make the play on Wisconsin.

USC has QB issues but Kedon Slovis has been named the starter as he has been dealing with a neck injury. Oregon St. is 2-1 and has an experienced team with 19 starters returning. They hve out-gained all 3 opponents on the season and have an outstanding passing attack that should be able to put up enough points in this game against a pedestrian USC secondary to stay in this game. The Oregon St. defense is rather ordinary, but good enough. The difference in these teams is perception, but not so much reality. I have the fair line in this game from 6/7.5 depending on just how healthy the USC QB situation is. Plenty of line value here, make the play on Oregon St.

Both these teams enter at 2-1, and both come in off huge blowout losses. The winner will be excited as these programs historically have not shown a whole lot. Someone comes out 3-1 and feeling pretty good about themselves. Many will look at this game and see they have each had a game vs New Mexico St. and New Mexico won by just 9, and UTEP dominated them on the road 30-3. Certainly says to most that the choice is clearly UTEP. UTEP Coach Dana Dimel had success at Wyoming, and was hired by Houston where he never had a winning season in 3 years, finishing 8-26. This is his 4th year at UTEP and he is 7-28 and has not won a conference game since 2018, where he won just 1. Danny Gonzales was a grad assistant over 20 years ago at New Mexico and this is his first time as a head coach. Most recently he was the defensive coordinator at San Diego St., and Arizona St. What I like about this game is the match up. UTEP loves to run the ball as they average 44 carries a game, and New Mexico is strong up front allowing just 272 rushing yards on 80 attempts or 3.4 yards per attempt. UTEP has some ball control issues as they have turned it over 9 times in 3 games, and New Mexico has forced 6 already. The Lobos held Texas A&M to less than 5 yards per carry, and games are usually won and lost in the trenches where I favor the Lobos. Make the play on New Mexico.

There isn't anything about this game that would attract most except the history books. There is no argument for Akron here, and Ohio St. could score on just about every possession. That is the broad view of this game. These games all look like they could play out 70-0, but seldom do. Starters should be on the sidelines by kick-off in the 2nd half. The driving influence here is this nugget. Since 1996 there has been 13 teams favored by 49 or more points vs an FBS team. They have proceeded to log a 1-12 ATS record. If you go back a bit further they are 2-16 ATS. I like the rationale behind playing against these enormous favorites. Some 49.5 lines still out there but 49 should be easy to find. Make the play on Akron.

The winner of this game will be 4-0, and get a big conference win. I have not been impressed with Oklahoma St. on offense, while the defense has been rather good. Mike Gundy returned just 5 starters on offense and his top 3 wide receivers are on the injury report as questionable. It has shown up on the scoreboard as the best Oklahoma St. has managed is 28 points in 3 games. The 3 wins have come by a net of 13 points, and the Cowboys have out-gained Missouri St., Tulsa, and Boise St. by 8 yards a game. Coach Klieman is a builder and he has Kansas St. on the rise. Despite QB injuries, the Wildcats are soaring on offense averaging 6.4 yrds per play to a schedule of teams allowing 5.4. The defense is just as good allowing 4.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams generating 5.6. They have been a yard better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.Both these teams strength of schedule is about even, and by no means should Oklahoma St. be favored by this much. It is a reputation line, and I'm not buying it. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is a big question mark regarding this Clemson team. What happened to the offense? Clemson lost a ton, but this team doesn't rebuild, they reload. The Tigers have a lot to answer for on offense, as they are averaging 8.5 points per game against FBS teams. Scoring 3 against Georgia may be able to be explained by the Georgia defense which may be the best in the country, but 14 vs Georgia Tech? NC State has allowed 31 points in 3 games or 10.3 points per game, so how in the world is Clemson going to cover around 10? There is one big reason. The offense will be better, bet on it. The defense is as elite as ever as the Clemson defense has allowed 0 points on the season. NC State scored just 10 points in their only legit game vs Miss St. and turned the ball over 3 times. Just remember over the summer the line on this game was posted around -20 at a Vegas Super book! Perception has blown this way out of proportion, and we get Clemson on the cheap here. If you think practices have been easy this week at Clemson, think again. I expect a big win by Clemson in this one, with the cover. Make the play on Clemson.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners have perhaps their best team in school history. They beat Illinois in a game where they led throughout the contest. Memphis was handed one last week by officials, and they scored 2 non-offensive TD's. We are used to Memphis going up and down the field but last week they managed just 246 total yards, and were out-gained by over 200 yards in the game. Offensively UTSA is an average team, but they run a lot of plays so the yardage per game is high at 477 yards per contest. The defense has been the strong point of this team, and Memphis does not have the same explosiveness as past years. Memphis is out-gaining opponents by just 22 yards per game and the Roadrunners are out-gaining opponents by 215 yards per contest. Some hidden value comes from UT San Antonio running 16 more plays a game than their opponents and Memphis 12 fewer than opponents. Jeff Taylor will have his team ready, and this one is prime for the upset. Make the play on UT San Antonio.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

When it comes to playing against the Big-10 it has been 90 years since the Auburn Tigers have faced a Big-10 team. This should be a big game as both teams come in ranked. The deck is certainly stacked for Penn St. First, it will be ESPN's Game Day. If that isn't enough, it is the annual white-out game where 100,000+ fans all dress in white. Next, this will be a very hostile crowd that some Auburn players have yet to see because covid limited fans a year ago. Auburn has a young team with just 9 starters returning. Bo Nix is still an enigma to me. He has dominated at home over his career where he has thrown 22 TD's to just 3 INT's. The road has been dramatically different where he has thrown 10 TD's and 10 INT's. He is going to have to be better than that. Auburn has generated 9.9 yards per play which looks elite, until you see it was against 2 teams that combine to allow 9.1. Penn St. went from a brutal 0-5 start last year to have now gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS. Auburn has beaten 2 real cream puffs at home, this is going into the deep end of the pool in more ways than one, and I don't think this young team is ready to handle it. Make the play on Penn St.

Dave Clawson has silently done an incredible job at Wake Forest. He has led a team that has the worst ll-time record of any P5 program to 5 straight bowls. The biggest problem he has had is recruiting enough depth. His teams over the 5 Bowl years and this year so far are 27-13 prior to November 3rd, but just 6-12 in the regular season after that. His team will benefit from the free year all players got due to covid-19, as he will return 9 5th year seniors and 19 starters in all. He has led Wake Forest to the 3 best scoring offenses in school history from 2017-19, and last year even better at 36 points per game. Wake has played 2 easy games, but this one is going to let the cat out of the bag. Wake is a team that I have as the most underrated in the country coming in. If they can stay healthy, they are going to have a big season, and right now they have 0 players on the injury list. I love Mike Norvell, but he has his hands full. Florida St. reminds me of Nebraska. They dominated for many years, the super coach leaves and the program never returns to what it was. Florida St. is heading down the same path. The Seminoles were 304-78 from 1987-2016 with 21 seasons of 10 wins or more. They have been 21-28 since. Since the start of the 2017 season they are 12-20 in the ACC and just 10-20-2 ATS. Since the start of the 2018 season they are 2-12 on the road with the average loss coming by 20.1 points per game. How the mighty has fallen. Last week they lost 20-17 to Jacksonville St. at home. Starting QB Travis Jordan is listed as available, and McKenzie Milton is a great story but he has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt so far, and is a long way from the QB he was before his really bad injury while at Central Florida. Milton had not played since 2018. Wake is the superior team here, well motivated, deeply experienced, and a competent QB with some great wide receivers, and all 11 offensive starters back and healthy. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Notre Dame has started 2-0, but it is a very soft 2-0. They were strongly challenged by both Florida St. and Toledo. Yes, they are 2-0 but they don't look anything like they have in recent years. There are a lot of holes. This team has ruled the line of scrimmage over the last 3-4 years, but have been out-rushed 198-99 by two opponents I would rate below Purdue. Worse than that through 2 games Notre Dame has allowed 4 plays of 60+ yards already under new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. Here is the scary part of that. Under former defensive coordinator Clark Lea they allowed fewer than that over the last 3 years combined! The other surprising stat is the Notre Dame offensive front has already allowed 10 sacks in 2 games. Purdue Coach Brohm is 15-5 ATS as a road dog since coming to Purdue. He has 18 starters returning and have looked the part early. A road dog of 3.5-10 points in a non-conference game off a non-conference game is 51-20 ATS the last 5 years. I think Purdue is within a score of this Notre Dame team that has yet to earn their national ranking this year. This one is close. Make the play on Purdue.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.