This game fits a situation that is 88-47 ATS and the play is on Virginia Tech.

This game fits a situation that is 138-77 ATS and the play is on San Francisco.

This game fits a situation that is 107-69 ATS and the play is on Seton Hall.

This game fits a situation that is 57-22 ATS and the play is on San Diego St.

This game fits a situation that is 77-36 ATS and the play is on Miss St.

This game fits a situation that is 138-77 ATS and the play is on Syracuse.

This game fits a situation that is 109-66 ATS and the play is on Wright St.

This game fits a situation that is 102-64 ATS and the play is on Kansas St.

This game fits a situation that is 77-38 ATS and the play is on Auburn.

This game fits a situation that is 84-51 ATS and the play is on Ohio St.

This game fits a situation that is 102-64 ATS and the play is on Florida St.

This game fits a situation that is 213-147 ATS and the play is on Old Dominion.

This game fits a situation that is 88-53 ATS and the play is on Minnesota.

This game fits a situation that is 87-54 ATS and the play is on Duke.

This game fits a situation that is 55-27 ATS and the play is on LSU.

This game fits a situation that is 55-27 ATS and the play is on Oregon.

This game fits a situation that is 311-226 ATS and the play is on Gonzaga.

This game fits a situation that is 77-38 ATS and the play is on Iowa.

This game fits a situation that is 71-33 ATS and the play is on Texas Tech.

This game fits a situation that is 211-138 ATS and the play is on Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 111-68 ATS and the play is on Seton Hall.

This game fits a situation that is 48-13 ATS and the play is on S. Illinois.

This game fits a situation that is 111-68 ATS and the play is on Georgetown.

This game fits a situation that is 67-38 ATS and the play is on Nevada.

This game fits a situation that is 77-38 ATS and the play is on Iowa.

This game fits a situation that is 111-64 ATS and the play is on Purdue.

This game fits a situation that is 88-56 ATS and the play is on W. Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 78-29 ATS and the play is on Cincinnati.

This game fits a situation that is 136-79 ATS and the play is on Iowa.

This game fits a situation that is 101-58 ATS and the play is on C. Florida.

This game fits a situation that is 113-57 ATS and the play is on Loyola, Chi.

This game fits a situation that has a record of 169-102 ATS and the play is on Michigan St.

This game fits a situation that is 76-48 ATS and the play is on Michigan St.

This game fits a situation that is 86-57 ATS, and the play is on 

St. Mary's.

This game fits a situation that is 78-44 ATS, and the play is on Colorado.

This game fits a situation that is 111-51 ATS, and the play is on BYU.

This game fits a situation that is 193-127 ATS, and the play is on Marquette.

This is a big tear for Chris Mullin at St. John's. Mullin is a beloved former player, and he is in his 4th year, and not much has happened. He finally has the talent to compete at the top of the league, and the backcourt duo of Mustapha Heron and Shamorie Ponds is as good as anyone in the country. Add in Arizona transfer Justin Simon, a true stat stuffer, and the Red Storm are going to be a vastly improved team and have started 3-0. California has hit rock bottom. Wyking Jines has a massive rebuild at Cal, and there is going to be more ugly losses. last year Cal was 8-24, finishing 1-17. They lost to Chaminade by 24, Central Arkansas by 27, and Portland by 25. The roster lost 7 players from that team, and Cal is young, inexperienced, and not all that talented and already has lost to Yale on a neutral court by 16. St. John's hasn't been good in quite some time, but they are now and riding under the radar. Make the play on St. John's.

This game fits a situation that has a 122-78 ATS record, make the play on Villanova.

This game fits a situation that is 133-78 ATS. Make the play on Oregon.

Young Dukies off a lackluster win vs Army did not please Coach K. he gave them a severe tongue-lashing that you have to bring it every night. Think that message gets through tonight with huge blowout win. Reddish, Williamson, and Barrett combining for 81 points 21 rebounds and 20 assists just 2 games in. OUCH! Make the play on Duke.

This game fits a situation that is 114-69 ATS and the play is on Kansas St.

This game fits a situation that is 114-69 ATS and the play is on Kansas 

This game fits a situation that is 114-69 ATS and the play is on Buffalo.

This game fits an early season big home favorite situation, where certain non-conference bog favorites have been 216-148 ATS, the play is on Gonzaga.

This game fits an early season big home favorite situation, where certain non-conference bog favorites have been 216-148 ATS, the play is on Georgetown.

This game fits an early season big home favorite situation, where certain non-conference bog favorites have been 216-148 ATS, the play is on Marquette.

The Kevin Ollie era ends at UConn and the Danny Hurley era begins. The Huskies have finished below .500 for 2 consecutive years for the first time in over 30 years. they return just about everyone, and under the Hurley leadership, I look for an immediate improvement. Morehead St. finished 8-21 a year ago and just 4-14 in the OVC. They have a lot coming back but also a lot longer way to go and are projected to finish 10th in the 12 team OVC. If UConn can't beat this team soundly it is going to be another long year in Storrs. This is a statement game to begin a new era at home vs a very poor team. Make the play on UConn.

CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN

Duke is off a 29-8 season which ended in an Elite 8 loss to Kansas. Duke lost all 5 starters from a year ago, but Duke reloads instantly with the #1 recruiting class. This is a star-studded class that has Final Four potential but maybe not so polished in game 1 vs another top team in Kentucky. Kentucky has a lot of talented experienced players back as well as some elite freshman. I think at this point Duke may have 4 very talented players, but Kentucky has very talented players themselves, but with much more experience. Make the play on Kentucky.

It has come down to Villanova v Michigan to crown an NCAA Basketball Champion. Both of these coaches have done a great job representing their Universities, but looking at what has happened at Villanova under Jay Wright the last 5 years is worth noting. Since the start of the 2013 season his Cats have been an astonishing 163-21. That is better than any other team. Villanova has also been by a runaway margin, the best ATS team over the period at 113-67-1 ATS. When you take a look at how many teams on his schedule he has beaten by 7 (needed to cover here), at 139 it is hard to grasp. Just 45 teams over the span of 5 seasons, and 184 games have managed to stay within 7 of his team. His last loss to an out of conference team with a winning percentage of better than .800 came back on February 24th, 2016! Michigan has been a hot team, but have to question the much easier path they have had to get here facing 5 teams with an average seed of 10, and no team better than #6 Houston, a game they won by a single point. They have faced the 9, 11, and 14 seeded teams, due to upsets. Michigan is certainly capable of winning, they beat Michigan St. twice. their problem is going to be making 3's. Consider Michigan shoots 36.3% from deep, while Villanova has 6 players that each shoot better than that. I think Nova is better in every aspect of the game, and will come away with another Championship for Jay Wright. Make the play on Villanova.

The first of a pair of Final Four games will feature Cinderella Loyola, Chi. v the Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines have played at a high level late in the season, winning their last 13. let's not forget this was a pretty good team before the streak at 19-7. So what has changed? The stats say very little, from a statistical standpoint the Wolverines 19-7 team is not statistically different than the 13-0 team. The one area that has changed some is they have gone from allowing 35.3% from 3, to 29.1%. That could just be variance, and the increase in scoring margin from +10.2 in the 19-7 start to +12.7 in their 13 game winning streak, is +2.5ppg better, and would be attributable to 3 point defense. Loyola,Chi. has been the surprise team of the tourney, seeded #11. Watching this team play suggests they are tremendously under-seeded. This is a team that has beaten #6 seed Florida on the road, #3 seed Tennessee in the tournament, and has looked like they belong in every game vs perceptively better teams. Most notable is their highly efficient offense and defense has not dropped off in their games vs strong teams, and the moment is not to big for this experienced team. perhaps the most telling stat of all is when Richardson, and Custer both play, they are 24-1 SU, with the loss by 2 points. Michigan is going to have to defend 5 players from beyond the arc when Loyola goes small, as well as defend against penetration. What makes Loyola special is they don't have a player that isn't capable of going off on any given night, and they don't have a dominant scorer that you can shutdown. Any player can put in 25. They have played 4 games in the tournament and have had 4 different leading scorers. They take what you give them, and it can come from anyone on the floor. All 6 of their top players have scored in double-digits in this tournament. This team doesn't have the "brand" so to speak, but they are as good as any team left in the tournament, and certainly can win this. Make the play on Loyola, Chicago.

Coach K has led his team into the NCAA Tournament for the 34th time, and surprisingly, with so many great teams, his squad has been knocked out prior to the sweet 16 on 10 occasions. The good news for Duke fans, is when he reaches the Elite 8, which he has done 14 times in previous NCAA Tournaments, he is 12-2, getting to the Final Four, and has gotten the Championship game in 9 of those, winning 5. The biggest edge on the floor will be rebounding. Carter and Bagley are a force off the offensive glass where Duke rebounds 38% of their missed shots. Kansas is not a good rebounding team at all, and was out-rebounded by Seton Hall, and Clemson in a pair of 4 point NCAA Tournament wins, failing to cover each. Duke defends the 3 well and when Kansas shoots less than 37.5% from deep they are just 8-7 SU and 4-10 ATS, so that is the marker for this team, and Duke has show a way to overcome strong 3pt shooting by their opponent, as they are 6-2 when their opponent connects on 37% or more from deep. Make the play on Duke.

Like him or not Bill Self has coached 3 teams in the last 19 years (Tulsa, Illinois, and Kansas), and has made 19 straight NCAA Tournament appearances with those 3 teams. While his Kansas team's have won or shared the Big-12 title 14 straight years, he is knocked for getting bounced out of the dance in the round of 32 or worse, 5 times, but once he has made it to the sweet 16, he has gotten to the Elite 9 in 6 of 8 tries. Kansas is a vulnerable #1 seed, and will go as far as their outside shooting takes them, but one bad shooting game vs a competent team, ad they will once again be packing. Clemson is not the profile of a team that will happen against. The Tigers are a great defensive team, allow 40% shooting on the season, with one big flaw. They are terrible at defending the 3, as they rank over 200 in defending it. They are also an average offensive team, ad don't get a lot of 2nd opportunities, ranking over 200 in offensive rebounds per attempt. Clemson has had the easiest path to the sweet 16 beating New Mexico St. and a failing Auburn team. This one is going to get away from them, make the play on Kansas.

Coach Calipari was frustrated by his group of highly touted freshman early in the season. This group is just stopping by Lexington for a season, on their way to the NBA. With youth comes inconsistency, and that has been the tale of this Kentucky team. A team looks great when they shoot the ball over their head, and the biggest reason this Kentucky team has looked so great lately is because they have shot the lights out of the ball. Their last 4 games they are 114-207 shooting a ridiculous, and unsustainable 55%. The Cats marker for success is shooting 46.4% or better where they are 16-0 SU, but 9-10 shooting less. Their points per game drops from 84.5ppg shooting .464 or better to 70.6ppg shooting less. Enter Kansas St. These Wildcats have allowed 50% shooting or better just 5 times all season, and are 0-7 allowing .483 shooting or better, 24-4 if less. When allowing .483 or better they allow 82ppg when less 63.1ppg. You can see where this game is going to be won or lost. Taking things outside the arc, Kansas St. is 19-2 when allowing .333 or less from 3, something Kentucky has done 17 times this year! many will point to Kentucky's 3pt defense allowing just 29% on the season, but Kansas St. is not dependent on te 3, as they are 9-5 shooting 30% or worse from deep, and they have allowed just 1 team to go off from 3 all season, 50% or better. I think the Kansas St. defense, which is elite will keep Kentucky under wraps, and if that is the case, the game will belong to them. Public eyeing Kentucky at nearly 70%, never a good sign. Kansas St. is 0-7 vs top 15 teams, 24-4 otherwise. Make the play on Kansas St.

 The Ramblers are an under-the-radar mid-major, that is now 30-5 on the season, and they may be even better than that. Loyola went 3-2 when they lost their top player in Clayton Custer due to injury, and are 28-2 when he plays. Additionally, his running mate in the back court, Ben Richardson, also missed some time. When Custer and Richardson have both been on the court, the Ramblers are a stunning 22-1. (The lone loss by 2 points). Nevada is also a very capable team, as they became te 1st team in NCAA Tournament history to come back from 9+ point deficits in 2 straight games. Combined these teams have won 4 Tournament games by 9 total points. It may be said by some they are both lucky to be here, but they are also both good enough to be here. Loyola, Chi. is going to get easier looks at the basket, as they spread the court, and the Nevada defense is ordinary. Another thing that may come into play is Loyola is an average rebounding team, but Nevada has been out-rebounded by over 10 a game in their last 5. Loyola has the better defense, shoots over 50% from the field, and I like them in a close one, play on Loyola,Chi.

The Louisville Cardinals may have gotten hosed not getting an NCAA Tournament bid. Their schedule was ridiculous, their 13 losses nothing to be ashamed of. Louisville lost 5 games to teams that were seeded 1 or 2 in the Tournament, and all 13 losses came at the hands of NCAA Tournament teams seeded 9th or better. The good news is, they beat all other teams on their schedule, and will host Miss. St. tonight. Louisville has always been a good point spread team at 218-173-9 ATS in their last 400 games, and covering 61.3% of all home games favored by less than -6. Make the play on Louisville.

This game fits a situation that is 67-33 ATS and the play is on Utah.

This game fits a situation that is 88-51 ATS and the play is on West Virginia.

This game fits a situation that is 88-51 ATS and the play is on Kansas St.

This game fits a situation that is 62-33 ATS and the play is on Nevada.

This game fits a situation that is 77-41 ATS and the play is on Texas A&M.

There were very few upsets in the first day of NCAA Tournament action, as just two double-digit seeds advanced to the round of 32. One of those teams was Loyola, Chicago. The Ramblers are an under-the-radar mid-major, that is now 29-5 on the season, and they may be even better than that. Loyola went 3-2 when they lost their top player in Clayton Custer due to injury, and are 27-2 when he plays. Additionally, his running mate in the backcourt, Ben Richardson, also missed some time. When Custer and Richardson have both been on the court, the Ramblers are a stunning 21-1. Tennessee is vulnerable offensively, as they are not good inside the three-point line where they rank 290th in FG percentage inside the arc. The Ramblers are strong defensively, and have the ability to win and at least keep it close. Take the points on Loyola, Chicago.

Rhode Island is 25-7 on the season, but they are not as good as that, and are an overrated team. They have a 4-6 record on the season against top 75 teams, and if they were in a P5 Conference, they would not be in this tournament. The things they do well is protect the ball and force turnovers. The Rhode Island defense is built to defend the 3, as they extend far out on the perimeter, and rank 11th in the country in fewest 3pt FG attempts allowed per game. Unfortunately their 2nd round opponent is Duke. Duke is very balanced, both offensively and defensively and their size and athleticism inside has them rebounding over 39% of their missed shots. They may not have the best record in basketball this season, but they are the most talented team. This will be the end of the road for Rhode Island, as Duke gets the big win, and cover, make the play on Duke.

Villanova is deserving of the top seed in this tournament as all 4 of their losses were due to 3pt shooting variance. They lost to Butler, providence, Creighton, and St. John's, being out-shot by 18% from deep, while on the season they held a 7% edge over opponents. Alabama is a joke being in this tournament. They are barely a top 50 team, and somehow wiggled a #9 seed out of the committee. Alabama does not get a lot of its points from 3pt shooting, and that in itself limits the possibility of an upset or close game here. Unless Villanova shoots 25% or less from 3, and the Tide suddenly gets red-hot and hits 45%+, this game will be a complete mismatch. While I can't predict how that is all going to pan out, handicapping is about what is more likely to occur, and that is a very comfortable Villanova win. Make the play on Villanova.

New Mexico St. has won 23 games or more for 7 straight seasons, and their 28 wins this season equals last year's total. While this is certainly a talented team, they have not measured up against the big boys. The Aggies own a 3-8 ATS mark vs P5 Conference teams, since 2011,when they have been good every year, and when it is a March contest, they are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing by a combined 50 points, coming no closer than 13. Clemson played a very rough ACC schedule this season. perhaps the most revealing of their wins was a complete smack down against a 27-6 UL Lafayette team 89-60. The Tigers are a tough defensive team, with just 1 of their 12 out of conference foes reaching 70 points, and held the likes of Duke to 38.8% shooting. The Aggies have not faced even a reasonably tough opponent since Christmas,and 19 of their wins have come vs teams with an RPI of 162 or worse. I think once again, N. Mexico St. is getting public interest as a potential Cinderella, but once again they will fall well short. Make the play on Clemson. 

This game fits a situation that is 43-14 ATS, and the play is on Virginia.

The College of Charleston Cougars finished their season at 26-7. They will travel to the West Coast to take on Auburn. The general public in search for Cinderella has jumped on the Cougars, as the Auburn Tigers have faded down the stretch with 5 of their 7 losses on the season all coming in their last 9 games. It is all tied into a team shooting slump for the Tigers. This was a great shooting team until their last 7 games, where they shot 160-430 just a woeful 37.2%. I believe this team rebounds from their shooting woes, as they are simply to good of a shooting team, and Charleston does not present the same caliber as the teams they have been struggling against in the SEC. Charleston has not beaten anyone of note, in fact, despite a schedule of teams with an average 244th ranked strength of schedule, a 311th ranked out of conference schedule, the Cougars margin is just 5.4ppg. They have 16 wins vs 200+ RPI opponents, and their best win was vs Northeastern, and additionally have 2 wins vs non-div-1 opponents, so 18 wins vs teams 203 or worse in terms of RPI. They are 8-29 SU since 2006 vs P6 schools, and have not faced one in March during the period, and are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS vs P6 teams last 12, losing by an average of 18ppg. Auburn averages winning by 15ppg in their out of conference games this season, shooting 46% and 38% from deep. Look for Auburn to find their offensive mojo, and win big. Make the play on Auburn.

Kansas St. had to play top 15 teams 7 times this season, and was winless going 0-7. That sets them up as an under rated team, and they handled the 16-50 teams by going 9-3. That leaves this team 22-4 when not playing a top rated team, and a certain dangerous dog vs what I think is an over rated Creighton team. I held off on making this a pick until the injury report on Kansas St. was released:

] 03/11/2018 - Dean Wade is upgraded to probable Friday vs Creighton ( FootF )

[G] 03/11/2018 - Barry Brown is upgraded to probable Friday vs Creighton ( Eye )

Kansas last lost to an unranked opponent on December 9th, so see some value on the Wildcats here. Creighton suffered down the stretch, losing 4 of 6 and were 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Play Kansas St. 

The country has sided with the Providence Friars after watching them beat #1 seed Xavier, and play #1 seed Villanova to the wire. The Friars have subsequently become a NCAA Tournament Cinderella darling. Unfortunately for the Friars they are 0-4 ATS the last 3 years in the post season tournaments. Don't get me wrong, this is a well coached good team, but the upside of this A&M team is much higher. The Aggies own some impressive wins. They own neutral court wins by 23 over W. Virginia, 17 over Oklahoma St., and road wins at USC by 16, and at Auburn by 1. Double-digit wins at home vs Kentucky, and Buffalo, and a 3 point loss to Arizona at a neutral site as well. The Aggies are deep with 6 players averaging 9ppg or better, and 9 players getting double-digit minutes per game. They lost 34 starts from that rotation, and all but 2 have missed games. providence has not shot the ball very well, no better than 43% in their last 4 games, and they spent a lot of mental, physical, and emotional energy in their Conference Tournament, and with the A&M upside much greater, and depth as well, look for Texas A&M to win, get the cover, and advance.

This game fits an NCAA Tournament situation that is 96-58 ATS, and the play is on Florida.

The Buffalo Bulls at 26-8 and winners of the MAC Conference have had a historic season. Unfortunately, their draw against the 27-7 Arizona Wildcats is a huge mismatch. Buffalo is going to get a lot of play, as everyone remembers Arizona's early season struggles, once ranked at the top of the country, Arizona opened the season at 3-3 and fell completely out of the top 25. Those issues were addressed, and resolved quickly, but with 7 losses, they are grossly under-seeded. Since November 29th, only 6 teams have been better than the 23-4 mark Arizona has posted, and 2 of those teams are N. Mexico St., and St. Mary's, a team that did not even make it to the dance. Buffalo had 5 tough games outside a weak MAC Conference where they went 0-5 SU vs S. Dakota St., Cincinnati, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, and Texas A&M. The Bulls lost these games by an average of 11ppg, and arguably Arizona is the toughest of all, yet to come. If Arizona isn't the toughest, they are surely the toughest match up. Ayton showed he is ready to perform on the big stage, averaging 32ppg and 16rpg in the final  conference Championship games. Buffalo has nobody to guard him, with the 6'*" Perkins the only Bull at 6'8" in the top7 in the rotation, other than the reed thin Harris at 6'7" 177lbs. Arizona not only has Ayton, they have the 7' Ristic. Additionally the Wildcat guards are all 6'5 or better other than lightning quick play maker Cartwright. The Bulls shoot well, but against the 5 teams mentioned above, they shot an average of less than 40%, and averaged 15 turnovers a game. Arizona by team strength, should be a 2 seed, and will win this one handily. Make the play on Arizona.

This game fits an NCAA Tournament situation that is 96-58 ATS, and the play is on Texas Tech.

This game fits an NCAA Tournament situation that is 96-58 ATS, and the play is on Ohio St.

This game fits an NCAA Tournament situation that is 101-68 ATS, and the play is on Oklahoma.

This game fits a situation that is 111-54 ATS and the play is on Rhode Island.

This game fits a situation that is 22-1-1 ATS and the play is on Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 111-54 ATS and the play is on Pennsylvania.

This game fits a situation that is 37-5 ATS, and the play is on USC.

This game fits a situation that is 43-22 ATS, and the play is on Buffalo.

This game fits a situation that is 21-1-1 ATS, and the play is on Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 43-22 ATS, and the play is on UL LAFAYETTE.

This game fits a situation that is 27-5 ATS, and the play is on UC Irvine.

This game fits a situation that is 22-4 ATS, and the play is on USC

This game fits a situation that is 101-68 ATS, and the play is on Butler.

This game fits a situation that is 101-68 ATS, and the play is on G. Southern.

This game fits a situation that is 13-1 ATS, and the play is on W. Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 20-1-1 ATS, and the play is on Kentucky.

This game fits a situation that is 206-133 ATS, and the play is on UT Arlington.

This game fits a situation that is 52-27 ATS, and the play is on UC Santa Barbara.

This game fits a situation that is 168-87 ATS, and the play is on W. Virginia.

This game fits a situation that is 52-27 ATS, and the play is on E. Carolina.

This game fits a situation that is 52-27 ATS, and the play is on Miss St.

This game fits a situation that is 168-87 ATS, and the play is on Grand Canyon.

This game fits a situation that is 168-87 ATS, and the play is on Creighton.

This game fits a situation that is 25-4 ATS, and the play is on Oregon.

This game fits a situation that is 25-4 ATS, and the play is on Marquette.

This game fits a situation that is 116-57 ATS, and the play is on S. Miss.

This game fits a situation that is 101-68 ATS, and the play is on Gonzaga.

This game fits a situation that is 32-6 ATS, and the play is on Idaho St.

This game fits a situation that is 66-26 ATS, and the play is on Syracuse.