These teams have both had great seasons. The biggest question for Houston is the soft schedule and the easy path to the final 4. Houston did not play against a top 20 team all season. Texas Tech at 18-11, and a flawed offense, had no chance. The best team they faced otherwise was a more complete, but inconsistent Memphis team that didn't make the tournament. Memphis shot 48% against them over 2 games and connected on 38.5% of their 3's. Houston escaped with a 2 point win and a 3 point win, because Memphis can't make free throws. Memphis shot 25-47 or 53% over the two games. They shoot 63% or better, they win both. Baylor is light years better than Memphis, and by far the best team Houston will have seen all season. Baylor is the best 3 point shooting team in the country, and all 5 starters are above average. Houston is the first team ever to get to the final 4 by beating all 4 teams that were double-digit seeds. I'm not saying Houston isn't good, they are, but there is no proof they are good enough to take on Baylor. Baylor has faced a lot of top teams, and finished with just 2 losses. I think they march into the final 4 rather easily. Make the play on Baylor.

If you are not convinced that the Pac-12 was severely underrated this season take a look at the sweet 16. The Pac-12 owns 4 slots out of the 16 teams in the field that remain. Alabama allowed Maryland to shoot 53.3% against them and still won by 19. It is because they controlled the glaas at 21, and did the same to Iona, at 16. The Tide has held a 49 rebound combined edge on their last 4 opponents. The Bruins can hold their own on the glass. Just 3 of their last 11 opponents beat them off the glass and none that did were better than 6. Alabama shoots just 42% when they are not on their home court. UCLA shoots 46% and 37% from deep. The Bruins however are riding under the radar. They are shooting 49% over their last 11 games, and just 1 of those opponents shot better than that in the 11 games. They are also taking care of the ball, as they have averaged just 6.7 turnovers per game 3 their 3 tournament games. UCLA has lost just 1 game since their season opener by more than 9 points. I certainly believe they can win this game or at the very least be in it late. Make the play on UCLA.

The Big-10 is going to be highly scrutinized after getting 9 teams into the tournament and just 1 surviving into the sweet 16. The Conference before the tournament started saw no team beat an out of conference team that made the tournament as an 8 seed or better. Think about that. Second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.1 points, six rebounds per game) missed the past three games with a stress fracture in his right foot that occurred in a Big Ten tournament quarterfinal win over Maryland on March 12.Livers is a 43.1% shooter from 3 point range and his absence is going to be felt. Florida State has held opponents to 39.3 percent field-goal shooting and 32.6% from deep and stopped a rather potent Colorado offense cold holding them to 53 points. Michigan likes to rely on 7-foot-1 freshman Hunter Dickinson (14.2 ppg)but the Noles are long inside and will present problems. Statistically these teams are even, but not with Michigan missing Livers. Florida St. is sizzling hot on both ends of the floor in the tournament and has what it takes to get to the Finals. Make the play on Florida St.

Creighton has a tall order in this game. They will attempt to become the first team this season to take down Gonzaga. Creighton often times has an advantage because they have 5 players averaging double-digits. The problem here is Gonzaga has the top 8 players in their rotation all shooting 47.2% or better. The Zags average 92ppg and the worst shooting game they have had all season has been 49.1% and still won by 16. The Zags Have beaten Kansas, W. Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Virginia by an average of 17ppg. I consider those teams on average are better than Creighton. The Gonzaga advantage here reminds me of a game a long time ago when Patrick Ewing's Georgetown team was upset by Villanova. The Wildcats shot over 70% for the game. I don't expect to see that. The Zags have scored 80+ points in all but 3 games. The games they failed to get 80 they won by an average of 18.3ppg. It still didn't matter that they scored 20 points below their season average, they can win fast or slow and win big. Gonzaga has won all but 1 game this season by 10+ points. They are the most complete team in the tournament for many years. This is Mark Few's best team, and best chance to win it all. Make the play on Gonzaga.

The Syracuse Orange arguably do not belong in this tournament. The fact is they are here, and have caught fire in their 32 games to arrive at the sweet 16 and face Houston. Syracuse has shot over 53% in the tournament thus far, and 50% from beyond the arc. Houston is the best defensive team they will have seen all season. The Cougars allow 37% shooting against them and just 28% from deep. They allow 57.9ppg. They are also the best offensive rebounding team in the nation and the Syracuse zone leaves them very vulnerable off the glass. I think Houston cruises in this one to a comfortable double-digit win. Remember, the Cuse has 5 double-digit losses on the season. When a #2 seed takes on an 11 seed in the sweet 16 they have gone 16-2 SU and 6 of the last 10 have been by 10 points or more. Make the play on Houston.

It has been a great story book season for Oral Roberts as they have made it all the way to the sweet 16. They have become just the 2nd team since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 to do so. The first was Florida Gulf Coast and the `Dunk City` team that shocked the nation. That team saw the dream end here and I think Oral Roberts will suffer a similar fate here. Arkansas is rolling and is 24-6 on the season, and has been 13-1 over its last 14 games. While they are scoring big the defense has held 6 of its last 9 opponents to under 40% shooting. Oral Roberts has lived on the edge as they won their conference tournament final by 3, beat Ohio St. by 3, and beat Florida by 3. They have a major issue off the glass as they have not out-rebounded any of their last 12 opponents losing the battle by -10 rebounds per contest. Coach Musselman loves the up and down game and when the total is in the 150s his team is 11-2 ATS. Over the 2nd half of any season Oral Roberts is just 34-57 ATS taking on a team that shoots 45% or better. Make the play on Arkansas

The Elite 8 will have a Cinderella story this season. Oregon St. was chosen to come in last place in the Pac-12 this year by the coaches before the season began. Oregon St. started the season at 11-11 but suddenly blossomed late to finish 8-1 and steal a bid into the Big Dance. They have made the best of it taking down Tennessee, and Oklahoma St. winning by double-digits in both contests. Their last 5 opponents were all NCAA Tournament teams and they beat them all. Loyola, Chicago has been elite all season at 26-4. Coach Moser has built a strong program that still rides under the radar. He could once again have a Final Four team for the 2nd time in 4 years. The Ramblers are on an 8 game winning streak of their own. They totally dismantled an Illinois team that many projected to cut down the nets. The challenge here for Oregon St. is this. The Ramblers are the best shooting team they will have seen at 50.4% on the season. They take care of the ball, they rebound, and are very strong defensively. They are without a weakness if they play their game. Oregon St. has shot over their head down the stretch, and they will be severely challenged in this one, and I think the moment may be too big for this team, while Loyola and their coach have been on this road before. Make the play on Loyola, Chicago.

The Creighton Blue Jays have sustained excellence through decades of solid seasons. The Bobcats upset Virginia in round one but Virginia looked vulnerable all season long. Creighton broke out of a two game shooting slump to get a narrow victory vs UC Santa Barbara. Creighton has a lot more offensive answers than Virginia had and the Blue Jays have actually defended better than the vaunted Virginia defense this season. Despite the upsets we have seen this tournament this is not a good spot. The 13-16 seeds in NCAA Tournament history since 1985 when the field was expanded to 64 teams are 7-41 SU and 13-34-1 ATS. Make the play on Creighton.

Abilene Christian pulled off the biggest upset in program history with their 53-52 win over #3 seeded Texas. They did it by dominating the offensive glass where they had 18 and the result was they ended up launching 27 more shots than Texas. Despite 27 more shots, they squeaked out a 1 point win, it was the perfect storm. There was never an upset of this magnitude by any team that shot less than 30% for the game, and less than 20% from deep. That will come to a quick and decisive end against UCLA. The Bruins have gotten things together after a 4 game losing streak beating Michigan St. and BYU. Make the play on UCLA.

Gonzaga has been to at least the sweet 16 for 5 consecutive years, more than any other team. I don't see any reason they won't make it 6. The question for most is can they cover the lofty looking spread? Mark Few has built a dynasty at Gonzaga but has yet to win a national championship. I think this is by far his best team and he will get the monkey off his back this year. This is by far his best team. Just 1 team all season has stayed within double-digits of the Zags and that was all the way back to game 3. Oklahoma has lost 10 games this season, and with the Zags shooting better than any team in recent memory ar better than 55% for the season, are going to win big. Gonzaga has scored 73 points or more in every game this season, and their top 8 players all shoot 48% or better, so the offense is pretty much fool proof. Make the play on Gonzaga.

An NCAA Tournament dog off a win as a 6.5 point dog or more and are a dog of 6.5 or more again are 10-27-1 ATS the last 20 seasons. Make the play on Oklahoma St.

North Texas was part of a state of Texas sweep on Friday as the Texas team's went 5-0. The Mean Green are a #13 seed and aren't in a lucrative position here. The loss of Collin Gillespie really hurts Villanova but this is a program built on a team not a player. Villanova has been a top team for several years now, and they took care of business in the opening round. A 13 or worse seed in the second round that won their first game as a 6.5 point under dog and are again posted as a 6.5 point under dog are 7-41 SU and 13-34-1 ATS. Make the play on Villanova.

Oral Roberts has provided the biggest shocker in the tournament so far. They took down the #2 seed Ohio St. in overtime. They became just the 9th number 15 seed to win a first round game since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. So what next? These teams always look good in their win but not their next game where they are 1-7 SU with just the Florida Gulf Coast team featured as Dunk City won, and oddly enough it was Florida that took that team down in the next round. These teams have lost the 7 games by 115 total points or 16.4ppg. When facing the #7 seed the margin in losses has been 22.5ppg. The road ends here. Make the play on Florida.

Baylor has had the best year in program history as they get ready to take on Wisconsin. The Bears however have been playing well under the line as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. That is not good in an NCAA Tournament game as any team that is a favorite by more than 4 points that has failed to cover at least their last 3 games has gone 4-16 ATS. Make the play on Wisconsin.

This game fits an NCAA Tournament situation that is 54-23 ATS and the play is on Illinois.

MREAST NCAAB SATURDAY PLAY OF THE DAY

St. Bonaventure sure isn't a household name in NCAA Basketball but the Bonnies are certainly for real under coach Mark Schmidt. He will be taking the Bonnie's dancing for the 3rd time which is the most by any coach in the school's history. His team won 19 games a year ago, and returned all 5 starters. This will be their first time as a single digit seed. St. Bonaventure is 5th in the country in scoring defense. LSU is 3-9 ATS as a tourney favorite (1-8 ATS laying fewer than 5) and 8 seeds are 3-15 ATS the last 8 years as a favorite of fewer than 5 points in round 1. Many teams have struggled entering the tournament off a 1 point loss, as they tend to struggle in their opening round game. The Bonnies are under the radar and certainly have the experience to make it to the next round. Make the play on St. Bonaventure.

It is a really good feel at Georgetown. The passing of legendary coach John Thompson, and with his prized player Patrick Ewing now at the helm is storybook. That rings louder as Georgetown shocked the world winning the Big East Tournament to steal a bid. That feel good I am afraid is ending on Saturday. The Hoyas are looking good, but remember thet are only 3-7 SU against tourney teams. The profile gets ugly from here as 10 seeds or worse entering the tournament on at least consecutive dog wins are a woeful 2-37 SU and 12-26-1 ATS in their first tourney game. Entering as a dog of fewer than 11 points it dips to 1-14 SU and 2-12-1 ATS. Make the play on Colorado.

Oklahoma St. boasts one of the top players in the country in Cade Cunningham, and down the final stretch of the season has been shooting the ball lights out. That is hard to maintain. You have to wonder how after playing 8 straight games at a high level vs top teams impacts their approach in this one. The Cowboy`s own 7 straight up wins in their last 8 games all as an underdog. Liberty has 4 players that all shoot better than 40% from deep, and is a deep team that also has 7 of their top 10 players shooting better than 80% from the line. They are going to be a tough team to pull away from here. Liberty has beaten TCU a team that bet Oklahoma St. as well as wins vs SC by 16 and Miss St. by 11.The Atlantic Sun has caused a lot of problems in the NCAA Tournament with #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast reaching the sweet 16, #14 seed Mercer beat Duke in the first round, and in 2019 the #12 seed Liberty Flames took out Miss St. in the first round. Liberty is back with a lot of those players again. Make the play on Liberty.

The Oregon St. Beavers have been underrated all season long, and they finally got their own personal vindication by stealing an NCAA Tournament bid by winning the Pac-12 Conference Championship. This team finished just 17-12, but has improved tremendously down the stretch where they finished 7-2. The Beavers have not won an NCAA Tournament game since 1982, and are 0-6 since then, but each loss has been by single-digits. Oregon St. is 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games following 3 conference games, and 11-0 ATS this season after playing 3 straight games as an under dog. Pac-12 teams as an 11 seed or worse are 8-1 SU in their last 9 appearances in this role. The Vols opened the season at 14-4 but finished just 4-4. Oregon St. is a confident team that has played over the line all season. Make the play on Oregon St.

Loyola, Chicago was a shocking surprise making it all the way to the final four 3 years ago. This team finished the season at 24-4 and some say this year`s edition is better than the final 4 team. This is a solid basketball team that doesn`t beat itself and one that plays a methodical slow paced style that often frustrates opponents. They don`t beat themselves and going deep into the shot clock and shooting 50.5% from the field ensures they stay in every game. They allow just 55.5ppg on the season and will be a tough out. Georgia Tech finished 17-8 on the season. They really came on late concluding the season on an 8 game winning streak. They got lucky in the ACC Tournament as they advanced via forfeit due to cobvid-19 and got completely out-played by Florida St. in all aspects of the game, but won. They won because Florida St. played their worst game of the year in terms of taking care of the ball. The Seminoles had 25 turnovers. The Missouri Valley is home of some very good basketball teams every year at the top of the conference. Good enough in fact that when they are seeded #7 to #11 they have now won 9 straight games straight up. Make the play on Loyola, Chicago.

Oral Roberts finished the regular season at 13-10 and a 4th place finish in the Summit Conference standings. They caught fire in the conference tournament winning 3 straight games and played their way into the NCAA Tournament. It is likely going to be a very short stay. The Summit Conference has had some very good teams over the years, but when they send an ordinary team into the dance they get crushed. Summit Conference teams have played 11 first round games as a 15 or 16 seed only to see the average loss come by 26ppg. Ohio St. is an elite team that has played on of the toughest schedules in the country. The Buckeyes schedule includes 19 games vs teams playing in the NCAA Tournament. They played a similar team early in the season in Morehead St. and won 77-44. I expect something similar in this one. Make the play on Ohio St.

Texas Tech is riding under the radar. They have not had success vs the elite teams on their schedule and there was a lot of them. They lost 10 games on the season which makes them look vulnerable here but all 10 losses came against tams that are a #4 seed or better in the tournament. The average seed of those 10 opponents is 2.7! They ran the table against all other teams. Utah St. has almost always had a good basketball program and team. This year they fought to a 20-8 record, and made the dance, barely. The Aggies however are 1-17 SU in the tournament in their last 18. The only win required OT. Their average loss has been by 10.1ppg. Make the play on Texas Tech.

It was a difficult season for Colgate trying to get games in due to covid-19. The end result however was a 14-1 record and a Patriot Conference Championship. They will take on 22-6 Arkansas in their NCAA Tournament opener. Colgate`s only loss on the season was by 2 points. The competition has been suspect but so has all the previous Patriot League entries into the tournament. The last 3 years have seen Colgate lose to Tennessee by just 7, and Bucknell losing to West Virginia by just 6, and Michigan St. by just 4. Colgate shoots the ball very well at 50% from the field and 40% from deep. They also have defended the 3 point line as good as any team in the tournament allowing opponents just 26.1%. Arkansas has allowed 39.3% shooting away from its home court this season from 3. Arkansas returned just 1 starter from a year ago, and the youth may be tight in this game. I think this line is inflated due to the looks of the match up and I will go with Colgate.

UConn is positioned to be on the inside of the bubble heading into this game vs Georgetown, and can all but wrap up an NCAA Tournament bid with a win. The Huskies beat Georgetown 70-57 just 11 days ago. UConn has not been a Big East favorite by this many points all season, and while Georgetown is just 9-11 on the season the Hoyas are 6-3 in their last 9 games. They were beaten off the glass by 16 in their previous game vs the Huskies after out rebounding 8 other opponents in their last 9 games. The Hoyas shot a woeful 35.8% in the previous game vs UConn, their 2nd worst in the past 9 games. This team won at Creighton, and lost to Villanova by just 10 on the road. Closer than it looks. Make the play on Georgetown.

This game fits a situation that is 138-86 ATS and the play is on St. Mary's.

This game fits a situation that is 38-9 ATS and the play is on Virginia.

This game fits a situation that is 117-69 ATS and the play is on Richmond.

The MAC is led by Toledo and Akron, the two teams that seem to rule the top of the conference each year. There is a log jam between 3-8 in the conference with Kent St. at the top of that list but Bowling Green just 1.5 games back. Looking at Bowling Green and their 10-8 record doesn't say much, but they have been in free fall losing 5 straight and failing to cover any of them. Bowling Green came within 5 on the road of this Kent St. team during this losing streak, and have revenge for this one. The Falcons have won the turnover battle in 9 of its last 10 games, while Kent St. has lost that same battle in 6 of its last 7. That will be crucial to the outcome here, and the Falcons are in a very strong 83-43 ATS situation. Make the play on Bowling Green.

VCU absolutely destroyed this Dayton team just 16 days ago 66-43. The Rams have a habit of creating chaos in their games and their games typically turn into turnover fests, as over their last 9 games they average 16.4 turnovers per contest. They enter this contest at 13-4 but have played below the line at just 2-7 ATS in their last 9. Dayton had a magical year last season, and never got a chance to be in the NCAA Tournament because it was canceled. The Flyers are 6-2 SU/ATS over their last 8. They have spent a lot of time on the road, but finally will play at home over their next 3 games where they have won and covered 4 straight. Both these teams have injury issues, and Dayton has some serious revenge business along with a situation in their favor that is 83-43 ATS. Make the play on Dayton.

Georgia St. has slipped to 8-4 on the season, and lost 2 straight to Appalachian St. They have now failed to cover three straight games. The strange covid-19 season has seen South Alabama play their last 10 games against just 3 other opponents. The Jags come out of 3 straight ugly wins where neither team in any of the 3 games topped the 40% mark from the field. Georgia St. shoots better than 54% at home where they also connect on better than 41% of their 3's. This will be the first time South Alabama is going to be challenged to hit shots and they have not shown that ability this season. Georgia St fits a situation that is 128-74 ATS. Make the play on Georgia St.

Don't look now but Drake is off to a 17-0 start. This is a very difficult team to beat simply because of the depth. Drake has won 12 games by double-digits this season, they have had 8 different players lead them in scoring in any given game and shoot 52% fo the season and 39% from deep. They have had 5 different players score 20+ this season. Valparaiso is simply a good basketball school, having a horrible season. They have been blown out a lot and will be over-matched here. Make the play on Drake.

The Loyola, Chicago Ramblers were seen in the final four a few years ago, and they really have things going as they have won 8 straight games to move to 15-3 on the season and this team is also on a 10-1-1 ATS run. The defense has stopped opponents cold, as the Ramblers are allowing 50ppg over their last 8.Big mismatch here. Make the play on Loyola,Chicago.

Belmont always has a good team and this may be their best. The Bruins are off to a 19-1 start and look for win #20 against a struggling SIU-Edwardsville team that is just 7-8 on the season. The Bruins beat this team by 52 earlier in the season. The Bruins have been 6-1 ATS as a double-digit chalk since the first of the year. The Bruins have been sizzling over their last 5 games converting 166-302 shots at 55%. Edwardsville is on the reverse side of that failing to shot 40% in any of their last 3. This will be the 4th straight oad game for Belmont, and coach Alexander's team has thrived in this spot having posted a 15-1 ATS record on the road for a 4th straight game. Belmont is 44-28 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite as well. Make the play on Belmont.

NC State sure has some issues to deal with. The Wolfpack managed just 1 win in January, and 1 cover as well. Things went from bad to worse when at the end of the month they lost their leading scorer Devon Daniels to a torn ACL. Virginia saw their winning streak halted vs Virginia Tech after blowing a 10 point lead, so I imagine they will be in an ornery mood tonight. They were also without D.J. Funderburk because of a university policy last game, and it is unclear if he will play tonight. Virginia seldom beats themselves as they average just 8 turnovers a game over their last 8 contests. Coach Bennett's style translates very well on the road where his Cav's team is 75-45 ATS, and 52-23 ATS when he is on the road with a total below 130. Make the play on Virginia.

These teams have played to a schedule of teams that are flat even. The difference here are two things. Missouri is 11-3 and Kentucky is 5-10, and Kentucky is a blue-blood with a huge reputation, and that changes the line in a big way. Coach Cal lost everything from a year ago, returning 0 starters and a lot of promising freshman. The freshman can't shoot, and the Cats are converting just 41.5% on the season, and a woeful 29.4% from deep. The Cats also turn the ball over too much, and simply aren't close to the caliber team we have seen here for so many years. If the uniform names were reversed, as well as the stats and records, Kentucky would be a double-digit favorite. It's the uniform holding the line down here. Make the play on Missouri.

Arkansas and Mississippi St. have played almost an identical strength of schedule to this point, and Arkansas has had a lot more success. The Razorbacks have been a strong home team for decades, and coming off a road loss and playing at hoe they have gone 61-37 ATS. They have been even better at home coming off a loss of 6 or fewer points where they have rebounded to go 32-16 ATS. Coach Howland's team have fared poorly after a 20+ point blowout win where they are 8-17 ATS in their next game. Make the play on Arkansas.

Very large under dogs in conference games don't fare very well as a rule. I have a 72-34 ATS situation for this game that actually uses part of that for its application. Make the play on Kansas St.

Iowa has Luka Garza, and he has dominated for Iowa. He leads the nation in scoring pumping in 26.4ppg. Michigan St. is always good which earned them a reputation ranking early in the year as high as #5 in the country. The Spartans have never lived up to the billing. The Spartans have not won since January 5th, some due to covid-19, but have lost 3 straight. The last 2 losses by 17 and 30 points. Michigan St. has failed to cover 7 of ts last 8, and 5 of their 6 losses would not have covered this number. Izzo's teams are 1-12 ATS off a double-digit road loss. Make the play on Iowa.

This game fits a situation that is 128-81-9 ATS and the play is on UCF.

This game fits a situation that is 66-19-3 ATS and the play is on Indiana St.

This game fits a situation that is 66-19-3 ATS and the play is on Austin Peay.

Wisconsin has almost always been a great defensive team, but they are coming off a game that saw Ohio St. shoot 50.9% against them, so you can bet they are going to be focused for this one at Maryland. They have also been a good 3-pt shooting team, but really shot poorly vs Ohio St connecting on just 7 of 28 at 25%. Maryland is not a good shooting team as the Terps have shot below 45% in 8 of its last 12 contests. They have also out-rebounded their 10 Big-10 opponents 3 times in 10 games. The Badgers suffered a loss at home to Maryland and coming off a loss and having revenge at the same time, should have the Badgers playing like a top 25 team, which they are. Make the play on Wisconsin.

South Carolina has really struggled with covid-19 and this will be just the Gamecock's 9th game of the season and they have dropped 3 straight. Georgia by contrast is playing in its 15th game of the season and come in at 9-5. Georgia however has built its record on a lot of cupcakes, as they have struggled in SEC play where they are just 2-5.A huge area of concern for the Bulldogs has shown up in SEC play. Their last 5 SEC opponents have combined to shoot 51.9% against them, and it is tough to stay in games without playing any defense. South Carolina finally seems like they have some continuity and should show a lot more consistency especially at home. Make the play on S. Carolina.

VCU has a fresh basketball history, while you have to go back to the Bob Lanier era to find the same with St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies however have made a lot of ground in recent years and is off to a 6-1 start to the season. They picked up a big win at Richmond, and their hallmark is a strangling defense that has limited each of its last 3 opponents to 38.5% shooting or less. The Bonnies have all 5 starters back from a year ago, and they have a huge edge off the glass in this one. Make the play on St. Bonaventure.

Syracuse is off when of its worst games in the Boeheim era. His Syracuse team dropped a 96-76 game to Pittsburgh. The 96 is a season high allowed by Syracuse, and in the 2nd half they gave up 64. Miami is off just the opposite, as they knocked off a then 16 ranked Louisville team. More impressive they did it with just 7 scholarship players available. Let's not lose site of the fact that Miami was 5-6 going into that game, and these teams are on the opposite ends of motivation for this game, and it is on the road for Miami. This is also a team that lost to Florida Gulf Coast as a 19 point favorite. I think practices must have been hell as Boeheim doesn't go for no defensive effort by his team, while this is a huge letdown spot for the canes. Make the play on Syracuse.

It has been a difficult situation up in Amherst, Mass. as the Minutemen have only been able to get in 6 games, and 4 of them have come against LaSalle, and Northeastern. UMass has been favored in all 6 games but has managed to win just 3 of them. There is one big glaring issue with this team, they do not defend at all. They are allowing 48% shooting against them, and nearly 38% from deep. Rhode Island comes in at 6-6, but has played a far tougher schedule. The Rams shoot pretty good, and defend even better, and I don't see how UMass can hang around in this one. Make the play on Rhode Island.

Syracuse will come into this game at 7-2, while Carolina is just 7-4. That will have some thinking this is a North Carolina induced line, but I don't see it that way. These teams are pretty even statistically, but there are 2 factors that stand out. Syracuse has beaten no team of note all season, and the schedule has been very soft, While Carolina has played a lot of good teams, and fared rather well. The second, and most telling is North Carolina is crushing everyone off the glass, where they are +12.7 boards a game on the season. That represents a lot of hidden points here in this match up. The Heels have won their last 2 games shooting below 35% in each, and that bodes well going forward. Syracuse still has some nagging covid issues on their roster, and Carolina has a lot of talented freshman getting better. Make the play on North Carolina.

Syracuse like a lot of teams have seen a lot of covid-19 issues. They had 4 games cancelled and this will be just their 2nd game since December 19th. It didn't show early in their last game vs Pittsburgh where the Cuse took an 18 point lead, but blew it, and ended up with a painful loss. It may be a symptom where the legs got tired as it is tough to simulate games. The Cuse was crushed off the glass giving up a ridiculous 20 offensive rebounds, and that is mostly based on a lack of effort. This is not the John Thompson Georgetown teams we remember. The Hoyas are just 3-7 on the season. Perhaps the good news is they shot just 33% against Butler in a 7 point loss, but they dominated the glass 44-32. That is the Cuse weakness, and it is what will help them stay in the game. Complicating the work off the glass is Syracuse has 3 forwards and or centers dealing with covid or injuries. The Hoyas are +64 off the glass on the season. All of the Syracuse losses or ATS losses came in games where they were beaten off the glass. Make the play on Georgetown.

Ragin Cajuns are off to an 8-2 start, but here they are at home taking points vs Arkansas Little Rock. The Cajuns may appear to be better than they are, as their stats are upside down. Their opponents have out-shot them from the field as well as from beyond the arc. I think they will be out-manned in this one as Arkansas is a sharpshooting team that knocks down a lot of 3's as well. ALR lost here last night by 2, and revenge with the better team is in order. Make the play on Arkansas Little Rock.

VCU is off to a 9-2 start and looking at their opponent this afternoon, from a record point of view, this line appears to be light. The Rams are just 5-6 but have played a much better schedule of teams, so the difference between these teams is very small except for the records. The Rams have shot the ball well, but have struggled from deep. VCU has run off 7 straight wins, but there is no "eyeopener" in any of the wins. Rhode Island's 6 losses are all to quality teams, and none of the games were blowouts, and almost all very close. VCU dealing with some covid issues. I like the dog here that I think could steal one. Make the play on Rhode Island.

Michigan comes into this game at 7-0, but have not stepped deep into the pool yet. They have been a favorite in every game by -7.5 points or more, and have played just 1 of their 7 games on the road. This will be the second straight on the road vs the best team they have faced this season. Maryland takes care of the ball as well as any team in the country with just 27 total turnovers in their last 4 games, or less than 7 a contest. Michigan in their 2 contests vs Big-10 competition has averaged 15.5 turnovers a game, so there is significant hidden value in this game. Michigan comes into this game having dominated off the glass, as they have out-rebounded all 7 teams on their schedule. The Terps are capable of rebounding with Michigan as they are +4 in rebounding margin on the season themselves. As Maryland fans would say "Fear the Turtle." Make the play on Maryland.

Memphis brought back 4 starters, and in addition Coach Hardaway finally unveiled Evansville transfer DeAndre Williams. He had an impressive debut with 13 points 9 rebounds 3 assists 3 steals and a block. He is a high energy player, and going forward he will help Memphis who is just 5-4 and have dramatically under-achieved. Memphis is a much better shooting team than they have shown, and have turned the ball over far too often. I think the last loss to Tulsa in a game they controlled until Tulsa went on an 18-2 run and stole the win. S. Florida has started well, but against strong defensive teams they have shot poorly and lost all 3. Memphis is strong on the defensive end, and while the Bulls have relied on rebounding, Memphis is dominating off the glass having a 62 rebound advantage over its last 4 games, or 15.5 per contest. This match up is a good one for Memphis, and off a painful loss, I look for them to come out and deliver their "A" game. Make the play on Memphis.

This line is way over the top. Gonzaga just got through torturing Virginia, so the expectation here is they will win by a country mile. The Zags shot 60.3% vs Virginia and Kispert hit 9 three's in that game. Northern Arizona is awful, and won't be competitive, but what they do well is slow the game to a crawl almost at the rate of the old Princeton teams. Their games average just 106 total shots, so Gonzaga is going to have to shoot at an extreme level to win by over 40, and with garbage time aplenty here, and what will likely be a completely disinterested Gonzaga team after playing a perfect game vs Virginia is not likely. Make the play on N. Arizona.

Drake has shot the ball exceptionally well and has opened the season at 9-0. The Bulldogs have defended well also as they are allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% against them. Indiana St. has started the season 3-2 and their stats are not nearly as impressive. Drake however has faced some real creampuffs and have been a 9 point favorite in all but one game (-6.5). Indiana St. has lost to St. Louis and Purdue, and the overall stats here are very misleading. Teams that are perfect straight up and ATS through 9 games, cover just 38% of the time. Indiana St. is also 32-15 ATS off of a win as a favorite, where they failed to cover.I like Indiana St. in this one.

It has been a long road for the DePaul Blue Demons as covid-19 has really kept this team off the court. This will be their first game of the season while other teams around the country have logged 10 games in some cases already. DePaul has had 10 games postponed or cancelled due to covid-19. W. Illinois is off to a 2-4 start, 1-4 vs division-1 opponents, and has had enormous problems finding the rim. The Leathernecks are bankrupt of quality experience as they returned no starters from last season. While DePaul is an unknown as this season goes, they have a 1st team pre-season choice in Charlie Moore and just much better athletes across the court. This should be a 20+ point win for the Demons. Make the play on DePaul.

It has been a great start for the Toledo Rockets as they are 6-3 to start the season. They have lost to Bradley by just 2 and Xavier just 3, and were blown out by Michigan by 20. All 3 losses came on the road. Northern Illinois finally got in the win column last time out, and stand at 1-5, and they have yet to cover a game as they enter play at 0-6 ATS. That sets this game up in a strong situation as we have a team off their first win, but has yet to cover in 6 straight games. These games have a history of going 112-65 ATS. Make the play on N. Illinois.

The Ohio,U. Bobcats are 4-2 on the season, but the competition has been very marginal. The same can be said for Akron who is 2-1 but both wins are against cupcakes. The stats here provide a guess for odds maker algorithms because there is really no valid input to consider, that makes any sense. Akron has been consistently solid in the MAC Conference and has certainly owned Ohio, U. as they are 18-6 SU in the last 24 meetings. This comes down to that history and my preseason power rankings that show that Akron is the better team coming into the season and the line sure isn't saying that. Make the plaay on Akron.

VMI has been quite active as they already have 8 games under their belt. The record is 5-3 which looks pretty good until you get inside the numbers. All 5 wins have come against teams below the division-1 level, while all 3 losses have come vs division-1 competition. The difference in the overall stats stands out, so the line here is based on overall performance, and most of it is vs cupcake competition, the numbers look a lot different when they have faced reasonable competition. This will also be their 4th game in just 8 days, and all 3 losses have come on the road by an average of 13ppg. George Mason has not been nearly as active with just 2 games under its belt, and a 1-1 record. Coach Dave Paulsen has returned all 5 starters from a year ago. Coach Earl is just 45-62 ATS at VMI as a dog. I see a good amount of statistical value in this contest when you balance out the numbers. Make the play on George Mason.

When Davidson moved from a low-major to a mid-major most thought the team would not maintain a competitive status, but they have certainly been pretty good. The hallmark of this team has always been to take care of the ball, and so far on the season they have turned the ball over fewer than 12 times a contest. Rhode Island has long struggled against good ball handling teams as their built to turn teams over, where they can get some easy buckets. Rhode Island is just 43-68 ATS vs a team that turns the ball over fewer than 12 times a game, and I see that as the difference maker here in an otherwise toss-up game. Make the play on Davidson.

William & Mary has had a difficult time playing games. They didn't open until November 28th, and lost by 8 to Old Dominion. This will be their first game since after a long 15 day layoff. George Washington has started slow at 1-4, but do have 4 returning starters. William & Mary had covid issues, and that along with just 1 returning starter is going to set this team back early in the season. It is hard to find continuity with players missing practice, especially with a very inexperienced team. It showed in their opener where they committed 15 turnovers, and it is hard to see them improving on that here. William & Mary going back to last season has just 1 win in its last 10 games. Make the play on George Washington.

Marquette is off to a 4-1 start and the win vs Wisconsin was impressive. They played their best game of the season and Wisconsin their worst, and snuck away with a 2 point win. There is no doubt that game has great influence on the line here vs UCLA. Mick Cronin is finally getting the type of team he likes, rugged and physical and he returned all 5 starters from a year ago. They got aa quick wake up call in their opener against San Diego St. and have come back strong winning 4 straight. They have held their last 3 opponents in the 50s a trade mark of a Cronin coached team. Marquette will be on the road with a young team for the first time this season, and I think UCLA wins by 10 or more here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Dayton Flyers caught a bad break last season. They had the best year in school history, and were certainly a National Championship caliber team, but due to covid-19, that abruptly ended the season, they never had a chance to get there. They enter this game at 1-1 on the season, off a heartbreaking 2 point loss vs SMU. It was a game they won statistically but were done in by 19 turnovers. The Norse are 2-1, but have shot the ball poorly, and with just 1 returning starter, it is difficult to see where the points are going to come from, and depth is an issue. They are also shooting a horrific 57% from the free throw line and had 21 turnovers in their most recent game vs UT Chattanooga. There are a lot of shortcomings on this team, that will be exploited by Dayton, who is hungry coming off a loss. Make the play on Dayton.

Miami, Fla. has started the season at 3-0 but this team has accumulated numerous injuries already, most notably  All-ACC preseason selection Chris Lykes, who suffered an ankle injury in Miami's win last Friday against Stetson. Miami had already lost guard Earl Timberlake (ankle) for three to five weeks and forward Matt Cross left the game with four minutes to go due to a foot injury.That leaves Miami missing 8 scholarship players for this game. Miami has just 3 available guards, and Purdue is shooting 43.6% from deep on the season, a clear advantage here to the Boilermakers.Purdue is a deep team that features 6 players averaging double-digit points, and should wear down an injury plagued Miami team. Make the play on Purdue.

This line makes absolutely no sense. Wisconsin is deservedly the #4 team in the country. They are 3-0 and with covid being so disruptive, what is more important is how cohesive the unit is. Wisconsin has all 5 starters back from a team that won the regular season Big-10 Title a year ago. Home court with no fans has no value, so the odds makers are basically this is a pick 'em game. I can't agree with that. Marquette lost one of the most prolific scorers in the country in Marcus Howard who averaged 27.8ppg,and finished his career #21 on the all-time scoring list. Moreover Marquette lost 4 of their top 6 players from a year ago, and even with Howard they lost to Wisconsin 77-61 last year. Not really anything else needs to be said. I see Wisconsin with a double-digit win here. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The UConn Huskies will face a big test as they take on the USC Trojans tonight at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville,CT. The Trojans are led by freshman Evan Mobley, who has proven to be worthy of his projection as a high lottery pick in the NBA draft. The 7-footer has dominated so far as USC is off to a 3-0 start. He starts along side of his brother Isaiah Mobley, who recorded his own double-double (11 points and 11 boards) last time out. USC held a strong BYU offense to 27.5% in an impressive blowout win. The Huskies have an emerging star of their own in James Bouknight (19.0 ppg, 6.0 rebounds), and for once, a deep roster with a lot of versatile parts. The Huskies almost blew a 19 point lead vs Hartford last time out, and while Coach Dan Hurley has made inroads on returning the talent level back to where it was under Jim Calhoun, they are still green and growing. It might be too much to ask tonight, but the Huskies are heading in the right direction, and are going to be over-matched in the paint, and under-sized, which should prove to be decisive. Make the play on USC.

Seton Hall opened their season with a tough 71-70 loss to Louisville but rebounded vs Iona to come into this game off their first win of the season. Unfortunately for Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard, the Pirates have just 9 healthy scholarship players available, and it makes it tough to get things done in practice, and most of the learning is taking place in games.Rhode Island come in off a 2-2 split of 4 games played at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. They came up just short off a ranked Arizona St. team, beat San Francisco by 13 a team that beat then #4 Virginia and lost a close one to BC. They have proven to be highly competitive against some good teams, and have played consistently well in the 4 games.Fatts Russell is averaging a team-leading 17.8 points a game, and the Rams have had consistent scoring with from all their players. I like Rhode Island in a mild upset in this one.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle with UNLV tonight. This Tournament has been moved to other sites due to covid-19, and Alabama will be the home squad in this one. UNLV is 0-2 on the season and in their last game vs North Carolina they led 13-0 and appeared to be prime to produce an upset, but the wheels came off and were out-scored 78-38 the rest of the way. While I liked the match up against Alabama against Stanford, I like the match up for this one. Alabama has a much better team than they showed vs an under the radar Stanford team, and clearly are the better team in this contest. Make the play on Alabama.

The Stanford Cardinal and the Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle at the Harrah's Cherokee Center in Ashville,NC. Alabama has had some success as a program over the years, but the recent history shows a total of just 2 NCAA Tournament appearances in the last 13 years. The Tide won its opener 81-57 vs Jacksonville St. but it wasn't s easy as the final score. They had a 21-4 run that essentially put the game away but th rest of the game was pretty even. The Cardinal saw their season opener fall victim to covid-19, but Stanford has 5 of its top 6 scorers returning. The freshman class is a strong one anchored by 6-foot-8 forward Ziaire Williams, who should make an immediate impact.Stanford won 20 games a year ago, an started the season 7-0 and 15-2, and have almost all those pieces returning, and an infusion of new talent. Alabama shot just 39% vs Jacksonville St. and will have to do a lot better to win here.Make the play on Stanford.

No write ups today

Th play is on Rutgers

Alabama St. has played poorly down the stretch losing their last 6 games and closed the regular season at 8-23. Southern closed the season on fire with 7 straight wins and covers to finish 16-15. That has changed perception here in a huge way. These teams met just 2 weeks ago with Alabama St. a 1 point favorite. Alabama St. was +4 at Southern U. in the 1st meeting, and now the line -9.5/-10 for Southern U. It all has to do with the recent streaks, and odds-makers knowing which team is desired here. A road dog revenging a home favorite loss and is off 2 straight 10+ point conference losses are 104-70-10 ATS. Line is off and the situation is positive. Make the play on Alabama St.

We have not seen a North Carolina team struggle like this one in quite a few years, but here they are in the ACC Tournament as a favorite against a winning team in Virginia Tech. They will be the team struggling a lot less here as the Hokies are just 2-10 in their last 12 games after a 14-5 start. Carolina meanwhile has gotten healthier and the only setback in their last 4 games has been vs Duke. The huge advantage in this game will be off the glass. The Hokies have been out-rebounded by 7.25 rebounds a game in those last 12, while Carolina is +6 in their last 13. Carolina has just 26 turnovers in their last 3, to 41 for Tech, and those are 2 areas where games are decided. Tech gets to the line just 13 times a game on the season to 21 for Carolina. Roy Williams is 79-49 ATS at NC off a loss. Make the play on North Carolina.

South Carolina St. is just 11-16 on the season, but it is a whole lot worse than that. The 11 wins have come against 2 teams not even in Division-2, and the 9 other wins have come against teams that have a combined 71-182 record on the season. The 9 wins also include no team with even a .500 record, and 6 that have lost 20 or more games. This team has averaged beating some horrible teams and has had no success otherwise. NC A&T has a marginal winning record on the season and if they were to beat them, it would be the best team they have beaten all season. NC A$T is also in a very favorable 170-103 ATS situation here. Make the play on BC A&T.

It is always tough playing on the road in any sport. It is a tough pill to swallow for a team to hut the road for 2 straight games as a favorite and come back home empty. These teams are generally welcomed home to big crowds, and a lot of energy to redeem the road losses. Thus will be the case for Duke tonight and here is how it all looks:

1)  Home 

2)  Line -4 or more

3)  Lost 2 straight as a road favorite

 

Hofstra continues to ride under the radar as this school gets very little ink. They are 21-8 ATS on the season, and that has them at 49-22 ATS in their last 71 games. James Madison at 9-19 on the season will finish with a losing record for the 4th straight season. This team has totally lost all its confidence and will as they own a 2-15 SU mark in their last 17 games where they are 3-13-1 ATS. They are also 1-17-1 ATS in their 19 losses this year. Make the play on Hofstra.

Momentum can be a plus or a negative depending on the sport and situation. Today in the newsletter we will look at the positive side of momentum when ot is applied to college basketball. We like the look of a streaking team taking to the road as a pick or favorite, after having won their last 3 games at least. This rings truest when we have a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of greater than .500 and less than .600. That means the 3 wins has generally turned a team from mediocre to marginally good. When their opponent is a sub .500 squad things go very well. Let's outline our parameters:

1)  Road favorite or pick 'em

2)  Winning percentage greater than .500 but less than .600

3)  Opponent is less than .500

4)  Play on team has won at least 3 straight

These teams are 169-102-6 ATS covering 62.4% of all games with a healthy sample size of close to 300 games. (19-12-1 ATS this year, and just 1 seasin in the last 14 years below .500)

Consider a play on Siena tonight.

Best of Luck,
East
 

The NCAA Tournament is not in the cards for either Clemson or Georgia Tech. tech has shown improvement late in the season going 5-3 in its last 8 and with a win at home can get to .500. They have beaten Louisville, Virginia Tech, and NC State in their last 3 home conference games. Clemson is not a good shooting team, but they have won 3 straight by shooting 56.5% on average over the 3 games. This from a team that was shooting 41% before their last 3. Shooting variance has made this line short of where it should be and that recency bias comes into play tonight. make the play on Georgia Tech.

Things have not been the same for this Alabama team as they seem to be tiring with the rigors of conference play. They are just 3-5 in their last 8. They continue to play at a very high pace, but the defense has broken down. They are allowing an insane 86ppg on the road this season, and overall in their last 4 games allowing 91.3ppg. Those numbers make it tough to win. Miss St. is 45-7 SU at home in its last 52 games. They have won their last 6 here by a total of 92 points or by 15.3ppg. Make the play on Miss St.

It has been a disappointing season for Michigan St. The Spartans started the season ranked as the top team in the country but are just 18-9. They are however 53-22-1 ATS in their last 76 home games.(33-11-1 ATS in conference games). They have lost 2 home games in a row for the first time since 2013, and I expect they will come out with all guns blazing for this one. Iowa is just 1-12 SU here and 8 of the losses have come by double-digits. Make the play on Michigan St.

It's hard to ignore what this team has done at home where they are 75-34 ATS. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

The Fairfield Stags just don't shoot the ball well at all, and seem to be getting worse. They are connecting on just 194-533 in their last 10 games at a woeful 36.4%. Siena has turned their season around having gone 7-1 in their last 8 games, and the Saints are shooting 47.8% over the 8 games. Siena is in a 168-101 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Siena.

The Evansville Purple Aces have some shocking details to their season. This is a team that beat Kentucky and Murray St. and lost by just 2 points at home to SMU. Shockingly they are 0-15 SU since. Things have been more favorable of late as they have been knocking on the door with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 games. Indiana St. is far from being a road warrior where they are an ugly 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS, and were beaten in their only game this season as a road favorite. Streak comes to a halt today, make the play on Evansville.

Kennesaw St. has been the worst team in college basketball for the past 2 years. They are just 2-25 SU this year and are a woeful 24-50-1 ATS in their last 75 lined games. (16-40-1 ATS if taking 21 or fewer points). I have had a lot of success playing against this team. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Liberty is 25-3 on the season and may be the worst team with such a gaudy record in college basketball history. They are vastly over-rated and their 4-10 ATS mark in their last 14 certainly points in that direction. One of those losses came against Stetson this season. Stetson is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games. Stetson has not lost a game by this point spread margin since early December. The last meeting saw just 93 points scored, so a huge point spread here which is 14% of the game total will make things difficult for Liberty to get the cover. Make the play on Stetson.

James Madison has a long track record as being the worst home team in college basketball as they are now 52-91-2 ATS on home hardwood. William & Mary is looking for their 20th win of the season, and they certainly have strong prospects of getting it here. Make the play on William & Mary.

Michigan has been playing well of late as the Wolverines are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 contests. They will be heading into a beehive this afternoon where they will be taking on a Purdue team that is 54-27-2 ATS in its last 83 at home. Purdue failed to cover their last home game, and the Boilermakers have not failed to cover 2 in a row at home in over 2 years covering 29 games, and are now 8-0 ATS at home over the period if they failed to cover their last home game. Make the play on Purdue.

Yale has become one of the best Ivy League teams in the past few years, and once again the Bull Dogs are knocking on the Ivy League Championship door. Since James Jines took over this program he has done a great job preparing his team, especially when they are on extended rest. (More than 4 days). That sets up this situation:

N. Florida has a misleading record coming into this contest, as does Liberty. North Florida has had games with Florida, Iowa, Florida St., Syracuse, Dayton, and Creighton. They are 18-10 on the season, but 18-4 if you take out the power conference teams. Liberty is 24-3 on the season, and has played a cupcake schedule. The Liberty out-of-conference schedule is ranked #308 in the country, compared to N. Florida at #21. These teams are a lot closer than this exaggerated line because of the 24-3 record. Remember, one of those 3 losses came against this North Florida team. North Florida is 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13. Make the play on N. Florida.

Kennesaw St. is 30-196 SU on the road since 2006 and getting worse as they are 0-31 SU in their last 31 and own a 1-24 record overall this season. They have lost on the road this season by an average margin of 27ppg. They own a 1-9 ATS mark if they are a dog of fewer than 25 points. N. Alabama won by 20 at Kennesaw St. already this year. Can't ignore the woeful track record of Kennesaw St. Make the play on Northern Alabama.

Wyoming is just 6-20 on the season so they have been getting a lot of points. They have done a great job of finding a way to habg around when getting a bundle as they are 3-0 ATS taking 17 or more points on the season with the wins coming vs San Diego St., Colorado, and Boise St. The Cowboys are also in a situation that is 68-38-2 ATS. Make the play on Wyoming.

A pair of 14-11 teams will hit the floor tonight as TCU plays at Texas. It has been a struggle for each of these teams of late as TCU is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and Texas just 2-7 min its last 9. Texas did record a 1 point win at TCU earlier in the season. The TCU struggles are nothing new as this team is 16-106 SU in their lat 122 conference road games and just 51-69-2 ATS. They have held their own as a big conference dog where they are 21-19 ATS taking 13.5 or more points but just 30-50-2 ATS otherwise. Overall the Horned Frogs are just 18-36-2 ATS in their last 56 road games. (7-25-2 ATS from +1.5 to +11). Make the play on Texas.

Cincinnati has played themselves right to the top of the AAC Standings and over their last 8 games has just 1 loss a 1 point heart breaker at Connecticut. The Bearcats however have been winning a lot of close games as the 7 wins show 5 with a margin of 7 points or fewer. C. Florida is in a good spot here as a team playing as a road dog of 10 or more that is off a home loss of 15+ points as a favorite are 33-14 ATS vs a team off a road win. Make the play on Central Florida.

The Wofford Terriers have really been struggling as they have a 16-11 overall record but have dropped 3 straight, all as a home favorite of -6.5 points or more. They are just the 3rd team this decade to lose 3 straight at home as a -6 or more favorite in each. They are the first to do so this late in the season. NC Greensboro is on a 9-1 run and is 21-6 overall. They have a scoring margin on the season of +14. (+20 in their 21 wins). They own 16 double-digit wins on the season. (just 5 teams have more). Make the play on NC Greensboro.