VCU has a fresh basketball history, while you have to go back to the Bob Lanier era to find the same with St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies however have made a lot of ground in recent years and is off to a 6-1 start to the season. They picked up a big win at Richmond, and their hallmark is a strangling defense that has limited each of its last 3 opponents to 38.5% shooting or less. The Bonnies have all 5 starters back from a year ago, and they have a huge edge off the glass in this one. Make the play on St. Bonaventure.

Syracuse is off when of its worst games in the Boeheim era. His Syracuse team dropped a 96-76 game to Pittsburgh. The 96 is a season high allowed by Syracuse, and in the 2nd half they gave up 64. Miami is off just the opposite, as they knocked off a then 16 ranked Louisville team. More impressive they did it with just 7 scholarship players available. Let's not lose site of the fact that Miami was 5-6 going into that game, and these teams are on the opposite ends of motivation for this game, and it is on the road for Miami. This is also a team that lost to Florida Gulf Coast as a 19 point favorite. I think practices must have been hell as Boeheim doesn't go for no defensive effort by his team, while this is a huge letdown spot for the canes. Make the play on Syracuse.

It has been a difficult situation up in Amherst, Mass. as the Minutemen have only been able to get in 6 games, and 4 of them have come against LaSalle, and Northeastern. UMass has been favored in all 6 games but has managed to win just 3 of them. There is one big glaring issue with this team, they do not defend at all. They are allowing 48% shooting against them, and nearly 38% from deep. Rhode Island comes in at 6-6, but has played a far tougher schedule. The Rams shoot pretty good, and defend even better, and I don't see how UMass can hang around in this one. Make the play on Rhode Island.

Syracuse will come into this game at 7-2, while Carolina is just 7-4. That will have some thinking this is a North Carolina induced line, but I don't see it that way. These teams are pretty even statistically, but there are 2 factors that stand out. Syracuse has beaten no team of note all season, and the schedule has been very soft, While Carolina has played a lot of good teams, and fared rather well. The second, and most telling is North Carolina is crushing everyone off the glass, where they are +12.7 boards a game on the season. That represents a lot of hidden points here in this match up. The Heels have won their last 2 games shooting below 35% in each, and that bodes well going forward. Syracuse still has some nagging covid issues on their roster, and Carolina has a lot of talented freshman getting better. Make the play on North Carolina.

Syracuse like a lot of teams have seen a lot of covid-19 issues. They had 4 games cancelled and this will be just their 2nd game since December 19th. It didn't show early in their last game vs Pittsburgh where the Cuse took an 18 point lead, but blew it, and ended up with a painful loss. It may be a symptom where the legs got tired as it is tough to simulate games. The Cuse was crushed off the glass giving up a ridiculous 20 offensive rebounds, and that is mostly based on a lack of effort. This is not the John Thompson Georgetown teams we remember. The Hoyas are just 3-7 on the season. Perhaps the good news is they shot just 33% against Butler in a 7 point loss, but they dominated the glass 44-32. That is the Cuse weakness, and it is what will help them stay in the game. Complicating the work off the glass is Syracuse has 3 forwards and or centers dealing with covid or injuries. The Hoyas are +64 off the glass on the season. All of the Syracuse losses or ATS losses came in games where they were beaten off the glass. Make the play on Georgetown.

Ragin Cajuns are off to an 8-2 start, but here they are at home taking points vs Arkansas Little Rock. The Cajuns may appear to be better than they are, as their stats are upside down. Their opponents have out-shot them from the field as well as from beyond the arc. I think they will be out-manned in this one as Arkansas is a sharpshooting team that knocks down a lot of 3's as well. ALR lost here last night by 2, and revenge with the better team is in order. Make the play on Arkansas Little Rock.

VCU is off to a 9-2 start and looking at their opponent this afternoon, from a record point of view, this line appears to be light. The Rams are just 5-6 but have played a much better schedule of teams, so the difference between these teams is very small except for the records. The Rams have shot the ball well, but have struggled from deep. VCU has run off 7 straight wins, but there is no "eyeopener" in any of the wins. Rhode Island's 6 losses are all to quality teams, and none of the games were blowouts, and almost all very close. VCU dealing with some covid issues. I like the dog here that I think could steal one. Make the play on Rhode Island.

Michigan comes into this game at 7-0, but have not stepped deep into the pool yet. They have been a favorite in every game by -7.5 points or more, and have played just 1 of their 7 games on the road. This will be the second straight on the road vs the best team they have faced this season. Maryland takes care of the ball as well as any team in the country with just 27 total turnovers in their last 4 games, or less than 7 a contest. Michigan in their 2 contests vs Big-10 competition has averaged 15.5 turnovers a game, so there is significant hidden value in this game. Michigan comes into this game having dominated off the glass, as they have out-rebounded all 7 teams on their schedule. The Terps are capable of rebounding with Michigan as they are +4 in rebounding margin on the season themselves. As Maryland fans would say "Fear the Turtle." Make the play on Maryland.

Memphis brought back 4 starters, and in addition Coach Hardaway finally unveiled Evansville transfer DeAndre Williams. He had an impressive debut with 13 points 9 rebounds 3 assists 3 steals and a block. He is a high energy player, and going forward he will help Memphis who is just 5-4 and have dramatically under-achieved. Memphis is a much better shooting team than they have shown, and have turned the ball over far too often. I think the last loss to Tulsa in a game they controlled until Tulsa went on an 18-2 run and stole the win. S. Florida has started well, but against strong defensive teams they have shot poorly and lost all 3. Memphis is strong on the defensive end, and while the Bulls have relied on rebounding, Memphis is dominating off the glass having a 62 rebound advantage over its last 4 games, or 15.5 per contest. This match up is a good one for Memphis, and off a painful loss, I look for them to come out and deliver their "A" game. Make the play on Memphis.

This line is way over the top. Gonzaga just got through torturing Virginia, so the expectation here is they will win by a country mile. The Zags shot 60.3% vs Virginia and Kispert hit 9 three's in that game. Northern Arizona is awful, and won't be competitive, but what they do well is slow the game to a crawl almost at the rate of the old Princeton teams. Their games average just 106 total shots, so Gonzaga is going to have to shoot at an extreme level to win by over 40, and with garbage time aplenty here, and what will likely be a completely disinterested Gonzaga team after playing a perfect game vs Virginia is not likely. Make the play on N. Arizona.

Drake has shot the ball exceptionally well and has opened the season at 9-0. The Bulldogs have defended well also as they are allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% against them. Indiana St. has started the season 3-2 and their stats are not nearly as impressive. Drake however has faced some real creampuffs and have been a 9 point favorite in all but one game (-6.5). Indiana St. has lost to St. Louis and Purdue, and the overall stats here are very misleading. Teams that are perfect straight up and ATS through 9 games, cover just 38% of the time. Indiana St. is also 32-15 ATS off of a win as a favorite, where they failed to cover.I like Indiana St. in this one.

It has been a long road for the DePaul Blue Demons as covid-19 has really kept this team off the court. This will be their first game of the season while other teams around the country have logged 10 games in some cases already. DePaul has had 10 games postponed or cancelled due to covid-19. W. Illinois is off to a 2-4 start, 1-4 vs division-1 opponents, and has had enormous problems finding the rim. The Leathernecks are bankrupt of quality experience as they returned no starters from last season. While DePaul is an unknown as this season goes, they have a 1st team pre-season choice in Charlie Moore and just much better athletes across the court. This should be a 20+ point win for the Demons. Make the play on DePaul.

It has been a great start for the Toledo Rockets as they are 6-3 to start the season. They have lost to Bradley by just 2 and Xavier just 3, and were blown out by Michigan by 20. All 3 losses came on the road. Northern Illinois finally got in the win column last time out, and stand at 1-5, and they have yet to cover a game as they enter play at 0-6 ATS. That sets this game up in a strong situation as we have a team off their first win, but has yet to cover in 6 straight games. These games have a history of going 112-65 ATS. Make the play on N. Illinois.

The Ohio,U. Bobcats are 4-2 on the season, but the competition has been very marginal. The same can be said for Akron who is 2-1 but both wins are against cupcakes. The stats here provide a guess for odds maker algorithms because there is really no valid input to consider, that makes any sense. Akron has been consistently solid in the MAC Conference and has certainly owned Ohio, U. as they are 18-6 SU in the last 24 meetings. This comes down to that history and my preseason power rankings that show that Akron is the better team coming into the season and the line sure isn't saying that. Make the plaay on Akron.

VMI has been quite active as they already have 8 games under their belt. The record is 5-3 which looks pretty good until you get inside the numbers. All 5 wins have come against teams below the division-1 level, while all 3 losses have come vs division-1 competition. The difference in the overall stats stands out, so the line here is based on overall performance, and most of it is vs cupcake competition, the numbers look a lot different when they have faced reasonable competition. This will also be their 4th game in just 8 days, and all 3 losses have come on the road by an average of 13ppg. George Mason has not been nearly as active with just 2 games under its belt, and a 1-1 record. Coach Dave Paulsen has returned all 5 starters from a year ago. Coach Earl is just 45-62 ATS at VMI as a dog. I see a good amount of statistical value in this contest when you balance out the numbers. Make the play on George Mason.

When Davidson moved from a low-major to a mid-major most thought the team would not maintain a competitive status, but they have certainly been pretty good. The hallmark of this team has always been to take care of the ball, and so far on the season they have turned the ball over fewer than 12 times a contest. Rhode Island has long struggled against good ball handling teams as their built to turn teams over, where they can get some easy buckets. Rhode Island is just 43-68 ATS vs a team that turns the ball over fewer than 12 times a game, and I see that as the difference maker here in an otherwise toss-up game. Make the play on Davidson.

William & Mary has had a difficult time playing games. They didn't open until November 28th, and lost by 8 to Old Dominion. This will be their first game since after a long 15 day layoff. George Washington has started slow at 1-4, but do have 4 returning starters. William & Mary had covid issues, and that along with just 1 returning starter is going to set this team back early in the season. It is hard to find continuity with players missing practice, especially with a very inexperienced team. It showed in their opener where they committed 15 turnovers, and it is hard to see them improving on that here. William & Mary going back to last season has just 1 win in its last 10 games. Make the play on George Washington.

Marquette is off to a 4-1 start and the win vs Wisconsin was impressive. They played their best game of the season and Wisconsin their worst, and snuck away with a 2 point win. There is no doubt that game has great influence on the line here vs UCLA. Mick Cronin is finally getting the type of team he likes, rugged and physical and he returned all 5 starters from a year ago. They got aa quick wake up call in their opener against San Diego St. and have come back strong winning 4 straight. They have held their last 3 opponents in the 50s a trade mark of a Cronin coached team. Marquette will be on the road with a young team for the first time this season, and I think UCLA wins by 10 or more here. Make the play on UCLA.

The Dayton Flyers caught a bad break last season. They had the best year in school history, and were certainly a National Championship caliber team, but due to covid-19, that abruptly ended the season, they never had a chance to get there. They enter this game at 1-1 on the season, off a heartbreaking 2 point loss vs SMU. It was a game they won statistically but were done in by 19 turnovers. The Norse are 2-1, but have shot the ball poorly, and with just 1 returning starter, it is difficult to see where the points are going to come from, and depth is an issue. They are also shooting a horrific 57% from the free throw line and had 21 turnovers in their most recent game vs UT Chattanooga. There are a lot of shortcomings on this team, that will be exploited by Dayton, who is hungry coming off a loss. Make the play on Dayton.

Miami, Fla. has started the season at 3-0 but this team has accumulated numerous injuries already, most notably  All-ACC preseason selection Chris Lykes, who suffered an ankle injury in Miami's win last Friday against Stetson. Miami had already lost guard Earl Timberlake (ankle) for three to five weeks and forward Matt Cross left the game with four minutes to go due to a foot injury.That leaves Miami missing 8 scholarship players for this game. Miami has just 3 available guards, and Purdue is shooting 43.6% from deep on the season, a clear advantage here to the Boilermakers.Purdue is a deep team that features 6 players averaging double-digit points, and should wear down an injury plagued Miami team. Make the play on Purdue.

This line makes absolutely no sense. Wisconsin is deservedly the #4 team in the country. They are 3-0 and with covid being so disruptive, what is more important is how cohesive the unit is. Wisconsin has all 5 starters back from a team that won the regular season Big-10 Title a year ago. Home court with no fans has no value, so the odds makers are basically this is a pick 'em game. I can't agree with that. Marquette lost one of the most prolific scorers in the country in Marcus Howard who averaged 27.8ppg,and finished his career #21 on the all-time scoring list. Moreover Marquette lost 4 of their top 6 players from a year ago, and even with Howard they lost to Wisconsin 77-61 last year. Not really anything else needs to be said. I see Wisconsin with a double-digit win here. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The UConn Huskies will face a big test as they take on the USC Trojans tonight at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville,CT. The Trojans are led by freshman Evan Mobley, who has proven to be worthy of his projection as a high lottery pick in the NBA draft. The 7-footer has dominated so far as USC is off to a 3-0 start. He starts along side of his brother Isaiah Mobley, who recorded his own double-double (11 points and 11 boards) last time out. USC held a strong BYU offense to 27.5% in an impressive blowout win. The Huskies have an emerging star of their own in James Bouknight (19.0 ppg, 6.0 rebounds), and for once, a deep roster with a lot of versatile parts. The Huskies almost blew a 19 point lead vs Hartford last time out, and while Coach Dan Hurley has made inroads on returning the talent level back to where it was under Jim Calhoun, they are still green and growing. It might be too much to ask tonight, but the Huskies are heading in the right direction, and are going to be over-matched in the paint, and under-sized, which should prove to be decisive. Make the play on USC.

Seton Hall opened their season with a tough 71-70 loss to Louisville but rebounded vs Iona to come into this game off their first win of the season. Unfortunately for Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard, the Pirates have just 9 healthy scholarship players available, and it makes it tough to get things done in practice, and most of the learning is taking place in games.Rhode Island come in off a 2-2 split of 4 games played at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. They came up just short off a ranked Arizona St. team, beat San Francisco by 13 a team that beat then #4 Virginia and lost a close one to BC. They have proven to be highly competitive against some good teams, and have played consistently well in the 4 games.Fatts Russell is averaging a team-leading 17.8 points a game, and the Rams have had consistent scoring with from all their players. I like Rhode Island in a mild upset in this one.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle with UNLV tonight. This Tournament has been moved to other sites due to covid-19, and Alabama will be the home squad in this one. UNLV is 0-2 on the season and in their last game vs North Carolina they led 13-0 and appeared to be prime to produce an upset, but the wheels came off and were out-scored 78-38 the rest of the way. While I liked the match up against Alabama against Stanford, I like the match up for this one. Alabama has a much better team than they showed vs an under the radar Stanford team, and clearly are the better team in this contest. Make the play on Alabama.

The Stanford Cardinal and the Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle at the Harrah's Cherokee Center in Ashville,NC. Alabama has had some success as a program over the years, but the recent history shows a total of just 2 NCAA Tournament appearances in the last 13 years. The Tide won its opener 81-57 vs Jacksonville St. but it wasn't s easy as the final score. They had a 21-4 run that essentially put the game away but th rest of the game was pretty even. The Cardinal saw their season opener fall victim to covid-19, but Stanford has 5 of its top 6 scorers returning. The freshman class is a strong one anchored by 6-foot-8 forward Ziaire Williams, who should make an immediate impact.Stanford won 20 games a year ago, an started the season 7-0 and 15-2, and have almost all those pieces returning, and an infusion of new talent. Alabama shot just 39% vs Jacksonville St. and will have to do a lot better to win here.Make the play on Stanford.

No write ups today

Th play is on Rutgers

Alabama St. has played poorly down the stretch losing their last 6 games and closed the regular season at 8-23. Southern closed the season on fire with 7 straight wins and covers to finish 16-15. That has changed perception here in a huge way. These teams met just 2 weeks ago with Alabama St. a 1 point favorite. Alabama St. was +4 at Southern U. in the 1st meeting, and now the line -9.5/-10 for Southern U. It all has to do with the recent streaks, and odds-makers knowing which team is desired here. A road dog revenging a home favorite loss and is off 2 straight 10+ point conference losses are 104-70-10 ATS. Line is off and the situation is positive. Make the play on Alabama St.

We have not seen a North Carolina team struggle like this one in quite a few years, but here they are in the ACC Tournament as a favorite against a winning team in Virginia Tech. They will be the team struggling a lot less here as the Hokies are just 2-10 in their last 12 games after a 14-5 start. Carolina meanwhile has gotten healthier and the only setback in their last 4 games has been vs Duke. The huge advantage in this game will be off the glass. The Hokies have been out-rebounded by 7.25 rebounds a game in those last 12, while Carolina is +6 in their last 13. Carolina has just 26 turnovers in their last 3, to 41 for Tech, and those are 2 areas where games are decided. Tech gets to the line just 13 times a game on the season to 21 for Carolina. Roy Williams is 79-49 ATS at NC off a loss. Make the play on North Carolina.

South Carolina St. is just 11-16 on the season, but it is a whole lot worse than that. The 11 wins have come against 2 teams not even in Division-2, and the 9 other wins have come against teams that have a combined 71-182 record on the season. The 9 wins also include no team with even a .500 record, and 6 that have lost 20 or more games. This team has averaged beating some horrible teams and has had no success otherwise. NC A&T has a marginal winning record on the season and if they were to beat them, it would be the best team they have beaten all season. NC A$T is also in a very favorable 170-103 ATS situation here. Make the play on BC A&T.

It is always tough playing on the road in any sport. It is a tough pill to swallow for a team to hut the road for 2 straight games as a favorite and come back home empty. These teams are generally welcomed home to big crowds, and a lot of energy to redeem the road losses. Thus will be the case for Duke tonight and here is how it all looks:

1)  Home 

2)  Line -4 or more

3)  Lost 2 straight as a road favorite

 

Hofstra continues to ride under the radar as this school gets very little ink. They are 21-8 ATS on the season, and that has them at 49-22 ATS in their last 71 games. James Madison at 9-19 on the season will finish with a losing record for the 4th straight season. This team has totally lost all its confidence and will as they own a 2-15 SU mark in their last 17 games where they are 3-13-1 ATS. They are also 1-17-1 ATS in their 19 losses this year. Make the play on Hofstra.

Momentum can be a plus or a negative depending on the sport and situation. Today in the newsletter we will look at the positive side of momentum when ot is applied to college basketball. We like the look of a streaking team taking to the road as a pick or favorite, after having won their last 3 games at least. This rings truest when we have a marginal winning team with a winning percentage of greater than .500 and less than .600. That means the 3 wins has generally turned a team from mediocre to marginally good. When their opponent is a sub .500 squad things go very well. Let's outline our parameters:

1)  Road favorite or pick 'em

2)  Winning percentage greater than .500 but less than .600

3)  Opponent is less than .500

4)  Play on team has won at least 3 straight

These teams are 169-102-6 ATS covering 62.4% of all games with a healthy sample size of close to 300 games. (19-12-1 ATS this year, and just 1 seasin in the last 14 years below .500)

Consider a play on Siena tonight.

Best of Luck,
East
 

The NCAA Tournament is not in the cards for either Clemson or Georgia Tech. tech has shown improvement late in the season going 5-3 in its last 8 and with a win at home can get to .500. They have beaten Louisville, Virginia Tech, and NC State in their last 3 home conference games. Clemson is not a good shooting team, but they have won 3 straight by shooting 56.5% on average over the 3 games. This from a team that was shooting 41% before their last 3. Shooting variance has made this line short of where it should be and that recency bias comes into play tonight. make the play on Georgia Tech.

Things have not been the same for this Alabama team as they seem to be tiring with the rigors of conference play. They are just 3-5 in their last 8. They continue to play at a very high pace, but the defense has broken down. They are allowing an insane 86ppg on the road this season, and overall in their last 4 games allowing 91.3ppg. Those numbers make it tough to win. Miss St. is 45-7 SU at home in its last 52 games. They have won their last 6 here by a total of 92 points or by 15.3ppg. Make the play on Miss St.

It has been a disappointing season for Michigan St. The Spartans started the season ranked as the top team in the country but are just 18-9. They are however 53-22-1 ATS in their last 76 home games.(33-11-1 ATS in conference games). They have lost 2 home games in a row for the first time since 2013, and I expect they will come out with all guns blazing for this one. Iowa is just 1-12 SU here and 8 of the losses have come by double-digits. Make the play on Michigan St.

It's hard to ignore what this team has done at home where they are 75-34 ATS. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

The Fairfield Stags just don't shoot the ball well at all, and seem to be getting worse. They are connecting on just 194-533 in their last 10 games at a woeful 36.4%. Siena has turned their season around having gone 7-1 in their last 8 games, and the Saints are shooting 47.8% over the 8 games. Siena is in a 168-101 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Siena.

The Evansville Purple Aces have some shocking details to their season. This is a team that beat Kentucky and Murray St. and lost by just 2 points at home to SMU. Shockingly they are 0-15 SU since. Things have been more favorable of late as they have been knocking on the door with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 games. Indiana St. is far from being a road warrior where they are an ugly 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS, and were beaten in their only game this season as a road favorite. Streak comes to a halt today, make the play on Evansville.

Kennesaw St. has been the worst team in college basketball for the past 2 years. They are just 2-25 SU this year and are a woeful 24-50-1 ATS in their last 75 lined games. (16-40-1 ATS if taking 21 or fewer points). I have had a lot of success playing against this team. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Liberty is 25-3 on the season and may be the worst team with such a gaudy record in college basketball history. They are vastly over-rated and their 4-10 ATS mark in their last 14 certainly points in that direction. One of those losses came against Stetson this season. Stetson is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games. Stetson has not lost a game by this point spread margin since early December. The last meeting saw just 93 points scored, so a huge point spread here which is 14% of the game total will make things difficult for Liberty to get the cover. Make the play on Stetson.

James Madison has a long track record as being the worst home team in college basketball as they are now 52-91-2 ATS on home hardwood. William & Mary is looking for their 20th win of the season, and they certainly have strong prospects of getting it here. Make the play on William & Mary.

Michigan has been playing well of late as the Wolverines are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 contests. They will be heading into a beehive this afternoon where they will be taking on a Purdue team that is 54-27-2 ATS in its last 83 at home. Purdue failed to cover their last home game, and the Boilermakers have not failed to cover 2 in a row at home in over 2 years covering 29 games, and are now 8-0 ATS at home over the period if they failed to cover their last home game. Make the play on Purdue.

Yale has become one of the best Ivy League teams in the past few years, and once again the Bull Dogs are knocking on the Ivy League Championship door. Since James Jines took over this program he has done a great job preparing his team, especially when they are on extended rest. (More than 4 days). That sets up this situation:

N. Florida has a misleading record coming into this contest, as does Liberty. North Florida has had games with Florida, Iowa, Florida St., Syracuse, Dayton, and Creighton. They are 18-10 on the season, but 18-4 if you take out the power conference teams. Liberty is 24-3 on the season, and has played a cupcake schedule. The Liberty out-of-conference schedule is ranked #308 in the country, compared to N. Florida at #21. These teams are a lot closer than this exaggerated line because of the 24-3 record. Remember, one of those 3 losses came against this North Florida team. North Florida is 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13. Make the play on N. Florida.

Kennesaw St. is 30-196 SU on the road since 2006 and getting worse as they are 0-31 SU in their last 31 and own a 1-24 record overall this season. They have lost on the road this season by an average margin of 27ppg. They own a 1-9 ATS mark if they are a dog of fewer than 25 points. N. Alabama won by 20 at Kennesaw St. already this year. Can't ignore the woeful track record of Kennesaw St. Make the play on Northern Alabama.

Wyoming is just 6-20 on the season so they have been getting a lot of points. They have done a great job of finding a way to habg around when getting a bundle as they are 3-0 ATS taking 17 or more points on the season with the wins coming vs San Diego St., Colorado, and Boise St. The Cowboys are also in a situation that is 68-38-2 ATS. Make the play on Wyoming.

A pair of 14-11 teams will hit the floor tonight as TCU plays at Texas. It has been a struggle for each of these teams of late as TCU is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and Texas just 2-7 min its last 9. Texas did record a 1 point win at TCU earlier in the season. The TCU struggles are nothing new as this team is 16-106 SU in their lat 122 conference road games and just 51-69-2 ATS. They have held their own as a big conference dog where they are 21-19 ATS taking 13.5 or more points but just 30-50-2 ATS otherwise. Overall the Horned Frogs are just 18-36-2 ATS in their last 56 road games. (7-25-2 ATS from +1.5 to +11). Make the play on Texas.

Cincinnati has played themselves right to the top of the AAC Standings and over their last 8 games has just 1 loss a 1 point heart breaker at Connecticut. The Bearcats however have been winning a lot of close games as the 7 wins show 5 with a margin of 7 points or fewer. C. Florida is in a good spot here as a team playing as a road dog of 10 or more that is off a home loss of 15+ points as a favorite are 33-14 ATS vs a team off a road win. Make the play on Central Florida.

The Wofford Terriers have really been struggling as they have a 16-11 overall record but have dropped 3 straight, all as a home favorite of -6.5 points or more. They are just the 3rd team this decade to lose 3 straight at home as a -6 or more favorite in each. They are the first to do so this late in the season. NC Greensboro is on a 9-1 run and is 21-6 overall. They have a scoring margin on the season of +14. (+20 in their 21 wins). They own 16 double-digit wins on the season. (just 5 teams have more). Make the play on NC Greensboro.

San Diego St. has run the table at 25-0 on the season. They have had some close calls on the road against some good teams, and will be challenged today bs a Boise St. team that is on the improve at 6-1 over their last 7 games, with some quality wins in the mix. They have 4 single-digit wins in their 4 toughest road games. The Broncos are 11-1 SU an home on the season, and 11-1 ATS, in their last 12 home games. Upset alert! Make the play on Boise St.

This is like a broken record, but I have been playing S. Dakota St. at home for a longtime as the Jackrabbits own a 74-34-1 ATS mark at home over its last 109 played here. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

The Big-10 has as many as 11 teams trying to punch a ticket to The Big Dance. This has been a war every night and the home team has held a 50-40 ATS edge thus far. Iowa has come up on the short end of conference road games where they are just 1-5 SU on the season, winning only at Northwestern. This has been a continuing issue for the Hawkeyes who are now 9-25 SU on the road and 8-26 ATS the last 4 year in conference play. Overall the Golden Gophers are now 24-5 SU and 17-11 ATS at home the last 2 years. Minnesota has won 5 of the last 6 played here. Make the play on Minnesota.

Ivy league games can be tricky and they have left behind a blueprint of results. The conference games are Friday and Saturday for the most part and the stronger teams tend to be a lot better on extended rest and preparation in the Friday game as opposed to the Saturday games played with 0 rest. Big favorites tend to struggle in the Saturday games. make the play on Columbia (also have a 1-23 ATS subset against Harvard)

conference=IVY and o:conference=IVY and HF and line

Yale gas dominated the Ivy League in terms of ATS prowess as the Bull Dogs are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 Ivy contests. I also have them in a 30-1-1 ATS spot tonight. make the play on Yale.

It certainly has been a disappointing season for Michigan St. who began it all as the #1 ranked team in the country. It certainly has not changed their home dominance that has been well established. The Spartans are 61-6 SU and 48-17-1 ATS in their last 66 home games. That goes to 42-3 SU and 34-10-1 ATS if they are off of a win(7-1 ATS this year). Make the play on Michigan St.

There has been a lot of #1 teams this season, and the flavor of the day is Baylor who sits as the top ranked team of the country. The Bears own a 22-1 record on the season and will be put to the test against 18-6 W. Virginia. A team needs to play a tough physical brand of basketball to compete with Baylor and that is exactly what the Mountaineers bring to the table. Baylor often wins ugly and their largest margin in their last 3 games has been 8 points. Mounties will be all in here trying to knock off the #1 team in the nation and bring the physicality to keep them in this one to the wire. Make the play on W. Virginia.

Kentucky, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Duke all have notable home court superiority. None of them have a better home record this decade than South Dakota St who is 126-7 SU at home while going 71-33-1 ATS. Denver is a bad team tainted with its own history. They play at a high altitude and have been 138-72 at home with a winning ATS record of 96-87-1. Put them on the road and they are 25-128 SU and 61-92 ATS. They are 0-11 on the road this season, so this is about as big as a mismatch as you will find for the price. S. Dakota St. has suffered as a home favorite from -9.5 to -12 where they are 13-12 ATS, but from -2.5 to -9 they are 35-7 ATS as well as 17-6 ATS from -12.5 to -18. Blowout time. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

Yale has been one of the top cover teams in college basketball. They are 55-36-2 ATS in their last 93 Ivy league contests. That turns into 25-11-1 ATS on the Friday night game when they are well rested. I also have them in a 29-1-1 ATS situation. Make the play on Yale.

The Washington St. Cougars have a better record than UCLA coming into this game, so why is UCLA a solid favorite to win? It starts with the home vs road dichotomy regarding this Washington St. team. They are just 24-53 ATS on the road, and looking at the most recent 3 years in conference play they are 3-22 SU and 5-20 ATS with the average loss coming by 14.4ppg. (0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS this year as a road dog). Over the same period they are 28-18 SU at home and 26-19 ARS winning by 4.4ppg. They are therefore a team that is 19ppg worse on the road. I'm a bog fan of Mick Cronin the 1st year UCLA coach. he has a reputation for recruiting physical players that play tough and ugly. His team is starting to get it as UCLA has won the battle off the glass in 10 of their last 12. Moreover, UCLA went through a 4-9 stretch and is 9-2 otherwise. The latest run has them at 5-2 and opponents shooting just 40%. The Cougars are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS at Pauley the last decade losing by an average of 16ppg. Until they prove they can be competitive on the road, the Cougars are fade material. Make the play on UCLA.

Penn St. has one of its best teams ever at 18-5 on the season. They are ranked at #13 in the country, and are riding a 6 game winning streak as they head to Purdue. Purdue is just 14-10 on the season so why are they a fairly significant favorite here? Playing at Purdue is no small task as many teams have discovered. They are 204-40 SU at home and 126-84-4 ATS. (169-25 SU and 116-74-4 ATS as a home favorite. They are shooting 48% at home and 41.4% from deep at home, while allowing 39% shooting and just 28% from deep. Purdue is now 54-26-2 ATS in their last 82 home games, winning by an average of 19ppg. They have beaten Mich St., Wisconsin, and Iowa here by a combined 84 points! Purdue has averaged just 8 turnovers a game in their last 4 at home. Make the play on Purdue.

St. Mary's and Gonzaga have been the top 2 teams in the West Coast Conference for years. This has become a huge rivalry game. the Zags used to struggle on the road in this game going through a 4-4 SU stretch, but the distance between these teams has changed and Gonzaga has opened up a much bigger advantage. They have beaten St. Mary's here in 6 of the last 7 meetings and have been 7-0 ATS in the process. They have held a winning margin of +12.8ppg in the 7 games. The winning margin has been 10 or more points in 6 of them. Think the Zags win easily here. Make the play on Gonzaga.

South Dakota St. reigns supreme when it comes to a home court advantage as they are 128-7 SU and 73-33-1 ATS over the last 8 years or so (9-1 ATS this year). if you look at them from -2 to -17.5 they are 65-24-1 ATS. Can't ignore this under the radar team with the best home court in America. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

St. Mary's is 18-5 as they continue to be an under the radar team playing second fiddle to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels lost a heart breaker to BYU on the road by 2. The Cougars shot a sizzling 58% in that game. The Gaels have punished mediocre or bad teams as they are 55-19 ATS to a line of -12 or fewer points vs an opponent less than .545. San Diego has struggled all season at 8-16 and are just 1-8 SU in conference play and 2-7 ATS and 5 losses have come by 13+ points and lost to Gonzaga by 44 points at home. The Gaels take care of the ball with an average of 9 turnovers over their last 5 games, and will be hungry off a loss. Make the play on St. Mary's.

Wisconsin Green Bay at 11-13 is in the middle of what is a bad year for a team used to 20+ wins a season. They did play an aggressive out of conference schedule and have been 8-5 over their last 13 games. They will play with purpose as they were embarrassed at home by IUPUI 93-78 as a 10 point favorite just a dew short weeks ago. IUPUI is a woeful 6-18 on the season, and 2-10 SU in their last 12. green bay is in a 70-32 ATS conference situation for tonight's game. make the play on Wisconsin Green Bay.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 16-6 and ranked #17 in the country. They are posted as an under dog despite the fact that Purdue is just 12-10 on the season. While Iowa leads the Big-10 in scoring, the Boilermakers are dead last in the conference, so why is Purdue favored? there is ample proof why. Purdue is 82-8 SU in their last 90 home games including 53-26-2 ATS. This team shoots 46.5% at home and 39.3% from deep while holding opponents to 38.8% and 28.4% from deep. That has led to blowout wins at home vs Michigan St. 71-42 and Wisconsin 70-51. They have turned the ball over just 23 times in their last 3 at home. Iowa on the other hand has been woeful on the road over the last 4 years at just 9-26-1 ATS. make the play on Purdue.

Michigan St. was the preseason pick to cut down the nets, but at 16-6 they have not lived up to the billing. Who would of thought Penn St. at 16-5 would have a better record coming into this game. Michigan St. is just 3-3 in its last 3 games, but here is the caveat. They lost all 3 of those games on the road. Michigan St. is an entirely different team at home where they are 216-27 SU including 128-91-4 ATS. They are 48-16-1 ATS at home in their last 65 and 25-3-1 ATS at home from -2 to -13. Penn St. is a good story which will have Michigan St. ready tonight. make the play on Michigan St.

Kennesaw St. has already lost 20 games this season as they are 2-20. This is a really bad program and growing worse. They have been woefully bad on the road where they are 14-80 SU in their last 94 and currently on a 29 game road losing streak. Odds makers have had a tough time giving them enough points as they are 22-47 ATS on the road. B. Florida has played a very rugged schedule with games vs Florida, Florida St., Syracuse, Iowa, Creighton, and Dayton. There is one thing common in those 6 games. They covered all of them. N. Florida is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as well. Make the play on N. Florida.

Not a whole lot of wins for either NC Wilmington (7-16) or James Madison (8-13). NC Wilmington has elevated their play however as they have won outright in 2 of their last 3 games as a dog of +7.5 and +13 points and missed the cover by 1 in the other. James Madison has really lost its confidence losing 7 straight and going 0-6-1 ATS in the process. JMU is one of the worst home teams in the country as they are now 51-89 ATS in their last 140 home games. Make the play on NC Wilmington.

While the football program at James Madison continues to thrive the basketball program appears to be heading for their 4th straight losing season at 8-12. They have one of the worst homecourts in NCAA basketball as they are now 51-88-2 ATS in their last 141 on home hardwood. Charleston has won 24+ games in each of the past 3 years and is 13-8 on the season. Charleston owns 4 double-digit road wins on the season. make the play on Charleston.

It has been a painful few years for George Washington, and they have a losing record coming into this contest with Davidson who is 11-9. Davidson has apparently turned their season around with 3 straight wins and the 5 returning starters are starting to live up to their potential. The Wildcats fit a great situation tonight that is 125-74 ATS as well. Make the play on Davidson.

When Cole Anthony went down with an injury so did the hopes of NC having a good season. The Heels are just 3-9 SU in their last 12, and just 5-14 ATS on the season. The only thing holding this line down is the school name. The Heels are 1-6 in the ACC. NC State is in a team specific revenge spot which is 37-22 ATS. make the play on NC State.

Xavier was a tanked team early in the season, but the team has suffered shooting wors all season long, and in recent conference games, especially on the road they have been exposed. Greg McDermott has done a great job at Creighton and the home court has been lethal for the Blue Jays as they are 213-45 SU here as well as 128-96-2 ATS. When the line has been -3 to -10.5 that expands to 70-41 ATS. Xavier is shooting just 43% on the season and a woeful 29.5% from deep, while the Jays at home are connecting on 48.3% and 39.6% from deep. McDermitt's record after having been an underdog in his last hame is a stellar 55-26-1 ATS. Make the play on Creighton.

The St. Mary's Gaels are 16-4 and continue to be the #2 team in the West Coast Conference as they keep chasing Gonzaga. This is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at 41%. They tend to destroy teams like Loyola Marymount as they are 54-19 ATS as a favorite of -12 or fewer points when facing a team that is less than .545. make the play on St. Mary's.

The Washington St. Cougars have failed to put together a winning record for 7 straight years. They have made progress at 12-8 on the season but this team struggles go beyond the wins and losses as they are now 24-52-2 ATS in their last 78 road games. The road is the last thing that gets fixed from a broken program and that hasn't changed this season as they are 0-5 ATS on the road. Utah maybe just 11-7 on the season but they are 7-1 at home where the altitude has led to a string home-court edge. This has been a chamber of horrors for Washington St. who is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS at Utah. Make the play on Utah.

Jim Jones has done a great job at Yale and while he lost a lot from a year ago, he has already reloaded and his Bulldog team is poised for another Ivy title. yale shoots the ball well and plays suffocating defense and has limited opponents to 36.5% shooting on the season and just 27.5% from deep. Brown at 7-7 on the season shoots the ball poorly and will be hard-pressed to keep up in this one. Yale beat Brown last week by 14 in New Haven, despite shooting 34%. Yale fits in a mega-situation that is 80-29 ATS and a subset of 28-1-1 ATS. Strong play here on Yale.

The Big-10 is well moted for its homecourt advantage, and Purdue has been the epitome of that registering a 52-26-2 ATS mark in their last 80 home games. Wisconsin isn't as good as they have been in recent years especially on the road where they shoot just 39% and just 26% from 3. Purdue shoots very well at home and has been taking out point spreads here with regularity. Make the play on Purdue.

St. Mary's is always chasing Gonzaga, and it is the same story this season. The Gaels have won 22+ games 12 straight seasons and at 16-4 this year will likely make it 13. The Gaels are 165-27 SU at home since 2007. They are 88-11 SU as a conference home favorite, with 5 of the losses coming at the hands of Gonzaga. The Gaels are an amazing 109-26 SU and 86-46-3 ATS as a -2.5 to -13.5 favorite vs an opponent off a win. They are also 14-0 SU/9-5 ATS at home vs SF, and covered the last 6. Make the play on St. Mary's.

It has been nearly a decade since the Washington St. Cougars have made any noise in the Pac-12. They are off a successful 2 game stint at home taking down both Oregon and Oregon St. The issue for this team has been their woeful play on the road. The Cougars are 11-69 SU on the road since 2012 and a paltry 24-51-4 ATS. Make the play on Colorado.

NCAAB MOMENTUM CARRIES ON:

Momentum has its moments, and all sports are not created equal. As a rule pro sports are not momentum driven and college sports are. I should point out in either case nothing about sports betting is universally true. Some days you eat the bear and some days the bear eats you, so money management is the driver for longevity. As long as you maintain discipline and make soundly handicapped picks, with some degree of competency you will survive and win. Today in the newsletter we will examine a momentum driven situation that looks like this:

1)  Play on a better than .500 road favorite but less than or equal to .600.

2)  If they are off 3 straight wins or more.

3)  The opponent must be below .500

This basically says that what was an average to a tick above average team on a winning streak are good bets as road chalk against bed teams. The record says:

South Dakota St. is well under the radar playing in a small conference that gets little exposure. Since January 30, 2011, they have the best home record in college basketball at 127-7 SU. That has also translated to 72-33-1 ATS. Tough to ignore here. Make the play on S. Dakota St.

This game fits a situation that is 246-166-10 ATS and the play is on Auburn.

Clemson and Wake Forest enter this game with identical 9-8 records. The one thing that stands out is Clemson beat Duke and NC in back-to-back games and has won 3 of its last 4. Clemson is looking for its 7th straight winning season and owns a cover rate at home in conference games of 55.3%. Wake has dropped 20+ games in 3 of the last 4 years. They have really found the road in conference play impossible to navigate as they are 16-102 SU and 46-71-1 ATS in their last 118. (30-53 ATS most recently). They have lost 7 straight times at Clemson covering just 1 of the last 5. Make the play on Clemson.

Illinois shoots 46.2% for the season but it has been a different story on the road where they shoot a woeful 40.6%. It gets worse from deep where their season average is just 30.6% for the season but 23.6% on the road. Purdue sizzles at home and has played a more difficult schedule. The Illini punished Purdue at home just over 2 weeks ago 63-37. I think payback is in order tonight as Purdue is 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 home games. (7-2 ATS this year). Make the play on Purdue.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 13-2 on the season after racing off to a clean start going 5-0 SU/ATS. they have been winning but the oddsmakers have caught up to them, just 4-6 ATS in their last 10. They won those 1st 5 games by 141 total points but since has won just 1 game by more than 10 points. Vandy won't get their full attention here, especially since they have a date at home vs Kentucky on Saturday. Vandy based in part of the look-ahead game for Arkansas is poised in a 73-41-2 ATS situation. Make the play on Vanderbilt.

Both these teams are 9-6 on the season. Miss St. comes in having lost 3 straight games but against much better competition. The Bull Dogs have 4 returning starters and just have more upside here especially at home. Missouri has shot poorly on the road at 40% and just 29% from deep. Could also be off a letdown here after shooting a sizzling 61.5% as a home dog vs Florida. make the play on Miss St.

Duke and its young talented players are coming together and look like a team that could make a long March run. Duke is 15-1 on the season and Clemson is a weak offensive team and will have trouble staying in this one. Duke has won 9 straight games by a combined margin of 205 points, or 22.8ppg. Clemson has already lost at home to Yale by 9 points. Make the play on Duke.

Cal-Poly is one of the worst home teams in the country having gone 15-44 ATS at home in its last 59. make the play on  UC Santa Barbara.

UNLV has had a very difficult time finding the bottom of the net as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 42% for the season. It will be tough to hang in against a Boise St. team that shoots 48.5% at home. UNLV despite a very home-oriented schedule is just 8-8 on the season and has not played on the road in over a month. Boise St. os 9-4 SU and ATS in its last 13 and has won 6 straight games at home by an average margin of over 20ppg. Make the play on Boise St.

It has been a tough season for Georgetown. They are down a couple of key players dismissed from the team, and 2 others as well. Add to that McCling and his 15.5ppg is questionable to play vs Seton hall tonight. The Hall is just a much better team, with perhaps the best player in NCAA basketball on Powell. Going to be hard for the Hoyas to compete as the Hall has better athletes and all around skill at all 5 positions. Make the play on Seton Hall.

St. Mary's won just 22 games last year and had 12 losses. They had won 25+ games in 7 of 9 years and are back to business in 2019 off to a 12-2 start. This team simply doesn't lose conference road games to anyone other than Gonzaga when they have their typical team. They lost to SF on the road last year by 4, you can bet they remember that game. The Gaels are 24-3 against SF in the last 27 meetings. They get revenge tonight. Make the play on St. Mary's.

Washington St. has not won more than 13 games since 2012. They are off to a 9-4 start but finishing with a winning record is still not likely. They have been double-digit favorites in 6 of those wins. They have played well below the line at 5-8 ATS. USC is back after 1 down year and Andy Enfield continues to draw high-level recruits to the program so the down years are not compiled. The combination of last year's USC failures and the apparent better team in the Cougars has held this line in check. make the play on USC. 

Oregon St. is slowly getting better, but the 11-2 record at this point has shown them to be quite untested. They have had just 1 big road game (2 road games all season) at Texas A&M and they were blown out. last year they won 18 games but started 11-4 to a soft schedule and wilted once the competition stiffened. They have little experience on the road and the altitude at Utah could make this one tougher. Utah is 82-7 SU at home as a favorite since 2013 and 54-32-3 ATS. Make the play on Utah.

This game fits a situation that is 79-27 ATS and the play is on St. Mary's.