The Miami Heat will meet the Detroit Pistons tonight in Miami. It has been announced Wade won't play tonight for the Heat. Wade after scoring 50 points 25 games ago, has become the Heat offense, as he has averaged nearly 35ppg in the last 25. So dependant, that consider this. Wade is averaging 30.2ppg on the season, and when he gets his average of 30 points, the Heat have been 29-9 to the over, when he doesn't they have been 13-27 to the over! No Wade no points, lots of unders. Since his 50 point game I spoke about above the dependency has increased, as the Heat have been played all 10 of Wade's games under, when he scored less than 30, his average. Tonight there is no Wade at all, meaning there will be a lot of adjustments being made on the fly. The Pistons have had trouble scoring all season, and with the bench getting more minutes, the points will come slower. Under gets the call.

The Miami Heat will meet the Atlanta Hawks tonight in Atlanta. These teams will meet in the first round of the playoffs, starting in Atlanta, so their fates are already determined. It is unlikely they are going to show each other anything in this game whatsoever, and it has been announced Wade won't play tonight for the Heat. Wade after scoring 50 points 25 games ago, has become the Heat offense, as he has averaged nearly 35ppg in the last 25. So dependant, that consider this. Wade is averaging 30.2ppg on the season, and when he gets his average of 30 points, the Hat have been 29-9 to the over, when he doesn't they have been 13-26 to the over! No Wade no points, lots of unders. Since his 50 point game I spoke about above the dependency has increased, as the Heat have been played all 10 of Wade's games under, when he scored less than 30, his average. Tonight there is no Wade at all, meaning there will be a lot of adjustments being made on the fly. Atlanta has become a top 10 defense. and their last 12 games at home vs a team with a winning record have seen 10 go under and just 2 go over. I'll go under in this one.

The New Orleans Hornets are a strong defensive team, and have now played under in 13 of their last 16 games. The Dallas Mavericks have not found their offense of late when matched up on the road vs a team that is in the top 10 in points allowed in the NBA. Their last 5 in this situation shows the Mavs putting up just 84ppg. The Mavs as a dog have also now played 11-1 to the under in their last 12, and the Hornets have been 17-5-1 to the under vs the Southwest divisiom. These teams have also played under in 5 of their last 6 meetings. I'm going with the under in this one.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are not a scoring team, and when they lost Al Jefferson, the team tried running to compensate, but saw that wasn't the answer. The Timberwolves have played 28 games this season vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA, and the games have averaged 207 points per game. That is a full 17 points from where this one is listed. The Suns have been slowed the last 2 games, and this Minnesota team is averaging just 93.4ppg in their last 22. They have also not allowed more than 110 over their last 19, and includes games with Golden St., Denver, Utah, Dallas, New York, and the Lakers. I like this one to go under the total.

This is a tough one for the books as we have the highest scoring offense vs the lowest, and setting this one at this high a level makes no sense to me. The Grizzlies are a top defensive team at home, because they play slow. They have matched up at home 13 times vs teams that rank in the top 10 in the NBA in points scored a game, and just one of those games have gone over this total. The average points scored in those games was just 197.6ppg, and of the 8 games they played against teams with a winning record in the top 10, none have reached this total. That includes Phoenix that played here earlier to see just 190 points scored. This one stays under the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have learned how to play defense, and it is paying dividends for them especially at home. The Hawks have quietly moved into the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. They have done so by allowing just 88.6ppg in their last 15 home games. They have played 11 games at home vs teams in the top 10 in points scored per game, where Indiana resides, but have allowed these teams just 94.8ppg. Indiana is a high scoring team, but that offense has been grounded vs the top 10 defenses in points allowed a game. The Pacers have matched up with these teams 14 times on the road, and managed just 96ppg. They were held to 87 last time into Atlanta. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

The Denver Nuggets have been red-hot coming down the stretch of the NBA season, as they are now 13-1 over their last 14 games. The Nuggets lost their way in early February, as they went through a stretch that saw them go 6-9. The problem was a huge offensive slump, that saw them average just 95.4ppg. That has all changed now as the Nuggets are closing the way they did last season, when they finished with 22 of their last 23 games scoring over 100 ponts. Their current century mark streak is at 14, where they are averaging 113.7ppg. The Lakers have played in 21 games against teams in the top 10 in points scored per game, and have averaged 111ppg against them, while allowing 108. The Laker total at home jumps to 115.4ppg, while they are yielding 106.6ppg, or on average these types of games have produced 221ppg, well over the total here. I will play this one to go over the total.

The Chicago Bulls are on a rampage, especially at home. This is a team that was underachieving for the greater part of the season, but is finally putting it together. The Bulls are 12-1 in their last 13 home games, with the lone loss coming at the hands of the Lakers. It is a team loaded with offense, that just couldn't find its way early on, as they managed 100 points in just 11 of their first 23 home games, but have now hit the century mark in 13 of their last 15 at home. Philadelphia has alowed 100 points or more just 10 times at home, but more than half the time on the road. I am not fooled by the Sixers 94.5ppg defense in their last 8, which featured all 8 games vs teams in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense. What is more relevant is their 4 games prior to that when they played all teams in the upper half of the league in scoring, and allowed 113.3ppg. This one is set to low and is going over the total, as have all of the last 6 between these two teams.

The Phoenix Suns don't even try to play defense, they just try to make the game as fast as possible and hope to outscore their opponent in the end. That strategy has not worked quite the same on the road vs the best NBA defenses. The Suns have played on the road 8 times vs teams that are in the top 8 in the NBA in points allowed, and failed to reach even the 100 point mark in 5 of those games. The Suns breakneck speed offense was down-shifted to an average of 96.6ppg! The New Orleans Hornets simply don't allow big offenses to score on them at home. The Hornets have faced the top 10 scoring teams in the NBA at home in a total of 13 games, and the highest scoring game was just 203 points. Phoenix managed just 91 here. These high flying offenses have been held to 95ppg over the 13 games. This one is way over the top, and I'll play this one to go under the total, as my NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

The Cleveland Cavs have been a dominant home team, and have lost just one game at home all season. Part of what they have become is a tenacious defensive team in their own building. The first 22 games played here saw the total reach 200 or more 10 times, or in almost half their games. What has happened since shows how they bring the defense every single night, as just 1 game in their last 16 played at home has reached the 200 mark, and it took a Phoenix team, that doesn't know what defense is to do that, and still that game reached just 201. The Cavs may have a litle extra for this one, as they were shocked by the Wizards 109-101 in Washington less than a week ago. The points won't come easy tonight. I like this one to go under the total.

This game has a defensive look to it, but I think it will fool a lot of people. I was waiting for some things to happen to trigger this, and they have. The Big ten looks to be a slowdown, tempo based league, and for the most part that is true. When Kalin Lucas was asked at media day, his response was, they are going to run and run against Uconn. They want to catch Uconn before they set a tough defense, with their shot blocking capabilities inside. The Spartans will try to win this game on the move, not in the half-court. What most don't realize is both these teams bring top 25 credentials to this game in offensive efficiency. these teams are both strong off the glass, which gives me the indication there will be some easy put-backs in this contest, as well as interior fouls stopping the clock. I'd be very surprised if this game didn't play in the 70s at least, with each team getting there. This one goes over the total, and is my NCAA TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR!

season. They have allowed every one of the 15 teams to score 100 or more, and have allowed an average of 113.5ppg. The Nuggets went through a 15 game slump that saw them fail to reach 100 in 10 of the 15 games. Since then, they have it rolling again, and have scored 100+ in their last 10 games, averaging 112.6ppg in the process. They have also given up 100+ in 6 of their last 7. This one goes over the total.

The Utah Jaz going into last night, had held the last 10 teams they played at home under 100 points. Put them on the road, especially vs teams with a winning record on the season, and the story is completely different. The Jazz has played 14 games on the road vs teams with a winning record, and all 14 have scored 100 points or more! These 14 teams have averaged 113.4ppg against the Jazz. These games have seen the total points scored in the 14 games average 215.7 a game, and earlier in the season these teams put up 230 in Portland. I'll take this one to go over the total.

Since Lebron James arrived in Cleveland the Cavs and the Pistons have played some of the ugliest games of any teams in the league. This has become a hate match, and the games play ugly. The last 19 times these teams have met, without overtime being involved, all 19 games have gone under the total! That is 19-0!!! Over that stretch of 19 games Cleveland has never scored 100 points, and Detroit just 1 timeThese teams in the 19 games have averaged scoring in the 160s, a far cry from where this total is set. The 19 games have seen 14, not come within 12 points of the total. I will play this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Hornets are a rare team as they are a top 5 defensive team, yet have a losing record on the season. They have played at home 11 times vs the NBA's top 10 in points per game scored, and 9 of the 11 have gone under the total. These 11 games were played to an average total of 196, while the average points scored were 184.2, that is 11.8ppg less than the posted totals in these matchups. Teams that averaged 104.5ppg were reduced to 93.8ppg, which would rank 28th in the NBA. The Lakers in turn have played against 12 teams on the road in the top 10 in defensive points allowed. They have avaregaed under 100 points per game vs these teams. Charlotte is also 20-7 to the under at home vs teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher, and after an against the spread loss the Lakers are 8-1-1 ATS to the under. I like this one to go under the total.

The Utah Jazz are a redhot team that has now gone 20-6 over their last 26 games. They have been a tale of 2 teams during the second half of the season. The Jazz on the road have allowed 100 points or more in 17 of their last 19 games, for an average of 110ppg. They have been a completely different team defensively at home, where in their last 10 not a single team has reached 100 points against them, and the average points allowed has been just 90.8ppg. That is a full 20 points per game less allowed at home, than on the road. The Knicks offense has cooled down. After 26 straight games scoring 100+, the Knicks have now scored 100+ in just 4 of their last 8. the last 7 games played in Utah has seen these teams play under the total, and I expect this one to as well. Under gets the call.

The #3 and #4 ranked defensive teams will square off in New Orleans. That has made this total set much lower than what is reasonably expected here. The Spurs last 11 games on the road vs teams with a winning record have seen 9 played above this total, and actually 5 have gone over 200. The Spurs have now played 8-1 to the over in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning home record, and the Spurs have also topped the 100 mark in their last 3 games. I like this one to go over the total.

The Celtics have had their bumps and bruises this season, and will again be without Kevin Garnett, who had a setback trying to come back from a knee injury. Leon Powe is also on the sidelines, and Rajon Rondo tweeked a sprained ankle, but will likely play. The Celtics remain a top defensive team, however playing with Garnett, has seen them go 11-5 to the over in their 16 games he has missed. The Celtics also seem to play with less intensity on the defensive end at home vs teams with losing records, as their Garden record vs teams under .500 shows an 11-2 mark to the over in their last 13, 4-1 over without Garnett. The Thunder have allowed 100+ in 22 of their last 31 games, and on the road vs teams with a winning record they are allowing 110.5ppg in their last 10, certainly enough ammunition here to play this game to go over the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats are the only NBA team in the top 10 of the NBA in fewest points allowed. It is a combination of slow methodical offensive sets, and solid team defense. There has only been 1 game played in Charlotte this season where there was over 207 points scored, and that was vs Golden St. where there was 213 scored. It took both teams combining to go 21-39 from beyond the arc, for 54%. If they shot 46% from deep, that game goes under as well. This is just too high a total for what the Bobcats have done at home all season long, with no exceptions. UNDER gets the call here.

It will be a BIG EAST battle in the regional finals between Pittsburgh and Villonova. These teams have had a long history of playing ugly games, which is another word for defensive. On the watch of the seniors that will be playing here, they have never combined to score more than 128 points in a game between them. If you take this series back even further, the last 10 meetings have seen these teams combine for more than 130 points just 1 time. Pittsburgh is also off a game with a combined score of under 125, and when their next game is vs another good defensive team allowing 63-67 points a game, and is on a neutral court, the under is 70-27, and this year it is 16-4. This game goes under the total.

The Indiana Pacers have played most of their games recently against teams that at least show up on the defensive end of the court. They have played 7 consecutive unders, none against teams in the bottom 10 of the NBA in points allowed per game. It has pushed this total down from where it should be, as the Pacers have played 18 games against teams in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and have played 13-4-1 to the over, with the average points scored in the 18 games 221.4. That is over a dozen shy where this one is set. The Bulls are playing at a higher level, having won 8 of their last 12, but it isn't about defense, as they are allowing over 100 points a game in the 12. It is their offense carrying the load at 106.1ppg. The Bulls offense has been clicking for quite some time now, as they are 17-11 in their last 28 games, and averaging 105.5ppg in the process. This total is set to low and this one goes OVER the total.

There are not many opportunites that arise like this one. This game fits a situation that has produced 61% winners over a 12 year period, that have averaged covering the posted total by 7+ points over 50% of the time. This is a purely situational play I am making on this one, with a long history, and high percentage chance of winning. I am playing this one to go over the posted total. It is a 3 unit play, and over the last 5 years it is 54-19. (73.9%)

The Boston Celtics have had a rash of injuries but are getting healthier. Kevin Garnett is back, and his presence in the lineup gives Boston the defense they had been lacking in his absence. The Celtics have met the NBA's top 10 defensive teams in points allowed on the road 10 times this season, and those 10 games played to an average total of 174.8 points per game, or almost a full 20 points below where this one is set. This game has all the makings of being a playoff-type defensive game, because they each enter this one with 18 losses on the season, so if they should meet in the playoffs, this game could go a long way in determining who is playing at home. The Celtics sport a 16-5 mark to the under on the road vs .600+ teams as well. The Magic are 47-19 to the under after scoring 100 points in their previous game, and have played the last 7 at home vs a visitor with a winning road record to the under. UNDER gets the call here.

The Vermont Catamounts are forced to travel again, as they went out to Green Bay in the first round of the NIT, and won, and now have to head to Oregon to take on the Beavers of Oregon St. Not sure how the Beavers wove their way into this tournament to begin with, as they dropped their last 4 games to come into this tournament at 13-17. The one thing that can be said about them is they play a Princeton-style offense, and control tempo at home better than any team in the country. Their last 7 home games, and some against some high flying offenses, haven't topped this total, and the average points scored in those 7 games is just 109.1ppg, for a 7-0 mark to the under. This one is going to be won in the 50s, and I'm playing this as my Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!

The Atlanat Hawks have suddenly become a very defensive commited team, as they have now moved into the top 10 in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Hawks gave up 121 to the LA Clippers back on February 7th at home, but since have changed focus. They have played 10 at home since that game, allowing no team over 97 points, and giving up an average of just 86.7ppg. The T-Wolves score 100+ in 7 straight after lossing Al Jefferson, but have slowed down since, and their last 5 on the road shows a high of 93 points scored, and now have played 10 of 12 to the under when posted as an underdog, while Atlanta has played 8 of their last 9 at home to the under. I like this one to go under the total.

SF Austin isn't a team that is going to race up and down the court, and will take their time offensively against the Syracuse zone defense. The calling card all year for this team has been defense. There has been just 1 team all season that scored 70 points or more on them in a game that did not go to overtime, and noone has topped 67 in their last 18. They have held 10 opponents on the season in the 30s and 40s, and this is as close to Princeton as we have seen in the tournament for a few years. Syracuse can certainly score, but the opportuniteis and possessions in this one will be at a minimum, and I look for this one to go under the total.

Duke certainly has been disappointing in the last few tournaments, bowing out early, and struggling to a 1 point win vs Belmont a couple years ago. This is a good Duke team, but lacks the offensive explosiveness of past teams. Coach K does have his team play intense defense though, especially come tourney time. The Dukies with much more offense is now 2-7 in their last 9 tournament games. Binghamton is a balanced team, but they aren't a great shooting team, with none of their top 3 scorers over 46%, and noone hitting 34% or higher from deep. This one will go under the total.

The Morgan St. Bears, despite scoring 70+ throughout their confrence tournament are not a very good offensive team. All you have to do is look at neutral court games with Utah where they scored just 37, and Wisconsin GB where they scored just 54 and it is easy to see, they are a product of a wek conference. A quick look at comparable teams on the Sooner schedule shows teams like that scoring in the 40s and 50s against them, certainly not the numbers required to push a game toward 140. I like this one to go under the total.

The American Eagles are coming into this one very confident as they closed the season with 13 straight wins. This is a defense dependant team, that has not scored 80 points the entire year in any game. They have now gone 11 games without allowing anyone over 60 points in regualtion. They will definately be playing a slow game here, and can defend well enough to hold the Nova total down. Villonova has played through stretches this season of explosive offense, and at other times willing to play in the half-court, and that will be where this one ends up. It will not be an uptempo game, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Denver Nuggets have begun to get their pace back, as they have averaged 113.3ppg in their last 3. What is more important is in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with a losing record, they have allowed over 100 points in 10 of them, to an average of 109.3ppg, while the Nuggets themselves, in these same 11 games have averaged 107ppg. They have played 17 teams on the road this season with 12 of them going over the total, and 13 of them scoring over 200 total points. If you throw out the game vs Charlotte, the only NBA team in the top 10 in fewest points allowed with a losing record, then the average points scored in the other 16 games is 213ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Cleveland Cavs have really been eating up just about everyone at home, as they enter this contest vs the Magic with just a single setback at home on the season. They lead the NBA in fewest points allowed, and over their last 23 home games have allowed just 86.6ppg. They just held a Knicks team that had scored 100 or more in 26 straight games to 93. Orlando is a team that can also defend, and score, but they have been held down on the road vs the NBA's top defenses. They have been held to 90 or less in their last 8 games vs the NBA's top 10 defenses, and I expect this one to be a playoff like game that features a half-court game and tenacious defense, by both sides. This one goes under the total.

Good team bring big defense when it omes to crunch time, and Michigan St. is a prime example. The Spartans are holding opponents under 40% in their last 6 games, and that has translated to just 56ppg. The Spartans have turned up the "D" and the result is 9 of their last 10 slipping under the total. Ohio St. certainly isn't a team that plays at breakneck speed. They have now played under in 10 of their last 13 off their home-court. The under has also cashed in 13 of Ohio St.'s last 18 against teams with a winning percentage of .600+. Couple that with the Spartans who are on an 8-0 under run as a favorite, and we have the makings of a very low scoring game. UNDER gets the call here.

The Mississippi St. Bulldogs have become a big offensive team. They are a team that averaged just 67ppg in the early to middle part of the season, but have really gotten it together on the offensive end. The Bulldogs have now averaged 79.4ppg in their last 11, and it is no wonder why the OVER has been golden, at 8-2-1 in those 11 games. Their highest scoring game of the season came against LSU, which featured 191 total points scored by both teams. LSU likes to get up and down the court as well, and I see this one turning into a very high scoring game, one in which the total should be set at 150, not 140. I am playing this one over the total.

I've said it all tournament long, that Memphis is completely misplaced in Conference USA, where they haven't lost a game in an eternity. What shines the loudest and strongest is their defense. Memphis is allowing under 50 points a game in their last 11. It has led to 10 of their last 11 playing under, and in Conference USA games, they have now played under in 42 of their last 61, or 68.9% of the time. They have also now played 7 straight C-USA tournament games UNDER the total as well. These teams squared off twice during the regular season to games that scored total points of 100, and 109, or 104.5ppg. I like this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats remain the only NBA team in the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. That has translated nicely against teams with a winning record, when they have met them at home. They have played 17 games at home vs .500+ teams and have allowed just 91.3ppg. When those teams are also in the top 10 in points allowed, 8 of those 10 have played under, with 7 of the games finishing in the 170s or less. The Bobcats have also played 23-11 to the under in their last 34 vs the Southwest Division, and have played 5 straight unders after a loss. I 'll play under in this one.

This Memphis team is just so out of place in Conference USA. They haven't lost a game in an eternity here, and are suffocating teams with their athletic and in your face sticky man defense. The result has been almost unimaginable, as their last 10 opponents have combined to average under 50 points a game against them. What is even more amazing is in their last 60 conference games, 41 of them have played under the total, or 68.3%. To top it off, this fits a tournament system with a similar 11 year tourney history. UNDER gets the call here

It has been tough for opponents to slow this Gamecock team, as they like to get it up and down the floor. The Gamecocks have pushed the 70+ point mark in all but one of their last 14 SEC games, but they have also allowd 70+ in 11. The Bulldogs have come around offensively as the season has worn on. Mississippi St. averaged just 68.4ppg in their first 7 SEC games, but finished averaging 79.1ppg in their last 9, a full 11 points higher. The Bulldogs haven't defended very well either as all of their last 7 opponents scored 70+. Mississippi St. has now played to a 23-8 mark to the over coming off an ATS win, while the Gamecocks are 4-0 over in the same situation, in their last 4. This one goes over the total.

LSU might be the surprise of the SEC this season, which overall had a down year. The Tigers are a good offensive team, that led to them playing 10 overs in their last 14 games, and scoring 70 plus points in 14 of their last 16. The Wildcats rely a lot on Jodie Meeks and his 24ppg, and he is capeable of 40 on any given night, and would expect him to be getting a lot of shots in this one, along with Patterson (18ppg) on the inside. These teams played in the 140s in their only matchup of the season, and I expect them to at least reach that level here. This one goes over the total.

I have been waiting for this one to come around since the Suns made the coaching change, and have been playing at a much faster tempo. That tempo will be severely challenged tonight vs the Cleveland Cavs. The Suns have been a scoring machine, and it has driven this total up to a point that is extremely inflated, and I'm ready to stp in. The Suns have played 21 games on the season vs teams in the top 10 in scoring defense in the NBA. This scoring machine was held to under 100 points in 10 of those, and on the season they have averaged 100.1ppg against the top 10 defenses in the NBA in points allowed. The 21 games against these teams have featured just 4 or 19%, that have toppled this inflated total. Taking a look at the Cleveland Cavs, they have not allowed a team to score more than 105 points against them on the road the entire season! They have played in 20 games this season vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the league, and in those 20 games the Cavs have stopped these teams cold! The 20 games featured 13, or 65%, where their high scoring opponent did not reach 100 points! No team with a winning record on the season has topped 105 points against the Cavs yet. The Cavs off of 1 day rest is now 39-19 to the UNDER in their last 58 games. The last 4 years the Suns have been a top team in the NBA, and they are 113-41 at home, which means to be a home dog, like they are in this one they have to be playing a top team. They have not played a game to the OVER as a home dog in any of those 154 home games. They have been a dog just 6 times, and all 6 went under by an average margin of 20ppg! This is my NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR, and it is on the UNDER!

The Houston offense has certainly played some high scoring games on the season. This team was slowed down toward the end of the season, and they closed the season with an 0-5 ATS run. The offense against the winning teams in the conference 70 just 2 times in 6 games, and were held in the 50s twice, once against this UTEP team. Miners play some solid defense, that saw teams reach the 70 mark in just 3 of their last 8, and they closed the regular season with 6 unders in those 8 games. I like this one to go under the posted total, and it also fits the 60-70% conference tournament system

Commodore offense is coming to life with the close of the regular season, as they have topped the 75 mark in 7 of their last 11 games, including their last 3. Alabama has been featuring a much improved offense down the stretch as well, as they jut up 70+in 10 of their last 11 games, and have now played over in 11 of their last 15. The leaky defense has also allowed 70+ in 11 of their last 15 games. These teams featured a game that produced in the 150s in their only game played, and both offenses on the uptick since that one. This one goes over the total.

had to take a hard look at this Memphis team, that is misplaced in Conference USA. It is like men amongst boys, and where it shows up best is on the defensive end. The Tigers are allowing just 50ppg in their last 9. Tulane managed to score all of 47 points against Memphis, less than a week ago, and I don't think they will be topping that total here either. The Tigers are so much better than Conference USA teams, that they have played UNDER in 40 of their last 59 conference games. I like this one to stay under the total.

It has not been a banner year for the Georgia Bulldogs, and although they played competitively on their home-court, when it comes time to play elsewhere, they just can't stop anyone. The Bulldogs in their last 7 games off their own court have allowed 80ppg. The Mississippi St. Bulldogs have not been very defensive minded themselves as they have allowed 81.1ppg over their last 9, while scoring 79.1ppg themselves. That means over the 2nd half of the SEC season Miss St. games have averaged 160 total points scored. Miss St. has also played to a 22-8 record to the over after an ATS win. This one goes over the total.

The Mississippi Rebels are not the best defensive team in the country by a long shot. They have allowed over 70 points in 10 of their last 14 SEC games, and in the last 3 to conclude the regular season they allowed over 80 in each game. Kentucky faced the Rebels just once, and the game ended with 165 points being scored. Mississippi has played to the over in 9 of their last 13 neutral court games, and the Kentucky Wildcats share the same mark of 9-4 to the under. This also fits another system that has produced 60-70% in 11 years of conference tournament action, and went 2-1 yesterday. OVER is the call here

The Knicks have now scored over 100 points in 24 straight games, but if that streak is going to continue, they are certainly going to have to earn it tonight. Just 3 of the last 22 teams that have come to Detroit have scored 100 or more in regulation, nad in the 2 meetings on the season, the Knicks haven't been able to get to 100. The Pistons aren't much for scoring either as they have reached the 100 mark just twice in their last 19 home games. There have been just 3 games played in Detroit all season that have topped this total, and I look for this one to go under.

The Philadelphia 76ers might not be considered one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, but they currently reside in the top 10 in fewest points allowed per game. Those numbers have been even better when they have been at home in Philly. The last 21 games in Philladelphia have included high scoring teams such as Denver,Phoenix,Indiana twice, Orlando, and the Knicks. Those 21 games have averaged just 190.6ppg, and only 2 of the games have surpassed the 200 mark, that is 9.5%. The Raptors have played 12 games on the road vs the top 10 defenses in the league, in terms of points allowed and in regulation minutes, they have not scored more than 97, and average only 90.2ppg. Those 11 games have featured 2 that have topped the 200 mark. I like this one to go under the total

The regular season ended on a disappointing note for the East Carolina Pirates, as they dropped their last 5 games. After opening 8-1 it looked like a season of promise, but they finished the season going 5-15. The team that reached the 80s and 90s a total of 9 times on the season saw the offense turn cold down the stretch, where they scored 62 or less in 4 of their last 5, and all of their last 5 went under the total. The Green Wave has not played to a total of over 141 all season long, so this is rather high for them. East Carolina has also played to UNDER in all of their last 5 as an underdog of 1-4.5 points, while the Green Wave is 7-1 to the under in 7 of their last 8 neutral site games. The seniors on these teams in their 4 year historie, have seen 6 of the 8 matchups between these 2 teams fall under the total as well, and UNDER is the call in this one.

Rice finished the season with just 9 wins, and offensively this team has not been putting points on the board, and athey have been subject to offensive droughts the entire season. It is a team that scored 62 or less points in 15 of their games this season, and played under in 15 of their last 22 on the season. Marashall certainly isn't an offensive dynamo either, and they closed the season on a 4-1 run to the under. Overall, Rice has now played to a 17-6 mark to the under in their last 23 C-USA games, and are 35-17 to the under in their last 52 as an underdog. The play here is on the under.

This is another NCAAB Tournament system play. These have hit 60-70% over the course of the past 11 seasons. This season so far they have not disappointed going 10-4-1 for 71.4%, including another winning day yesterday. This one figures to be close at the end which is always good for OVERS as they often become free throw shooting contests. This one is a system play that has yielded 63% winners and the play here is on the OVER.

The New York Knicks have now scored 100+ points in 23 straight games. That means the totals in their games have been creeping upward. This one is in the 220s, and higher than the game they played the Lakers, who are the highest scoring team in the NBA. Milwaukee has had the Knicks number this season. The Knicks have scored 87 points or less just 6 times this season, and 3 of those were in the 3 games they have played against Milwaukee. I like this one to go under the total

Princeton is back to their methodical offense, and it has shown over the last 11 games they have played in the IVY League. The Tiger offense has not topped 63 points in their last 11 played in conference, and at the same time they have allowed just 1 team over 62 points. That leaves a fine line between the maximums allowed vs the total posted here, as the Princeton maximums would be in the mid 120s. Those games ahve shown an average points scored of just 108.1ppg. Last year a much better offensive Penn team, that averaged 71ppg in Ivy play, finished the season with 60 against Princeton, and 107 total points for the game. These teams have averaged just 107.4ppg in their last 7 meetings (non OT points). Princeton has played under in 9 of their last 11, while Penn has played under in 5 of their last 6. I like this one to go under the total.

Arkansas Little Rock and South Alabama will meet for the Sun Belt Title tonight, and the winner will be in the NCAA Tournament. This is yet another tournament system game that has seen 60-70% winners over an 11 year period, and so far this tournament the system has not let down, as it has cashed in 8 of 11 for 72.3%. This one qualifies as the next play, and I'm going to follow the 11 year trail, that says this one plays over the posted total.

The Detroit Pistons have not had a great year, and the offense lacks the punch it has had in recent years. The one constant on this team is defense. The Pistons rise to the occasion when they play other teams that like to play defense. This season at home their games vs teams also in the top 10 in points allowed have produced unders in 9 of the 10 games played. The 9 games that have gone under the total have done so by an average of 12.6ppg. They have met twice this season, and neither game scored more than 178 combined points. This one goes under the total.

Both these teams like to get up and down the court, and I would expect this one to play wide open. It is another of the system plays I have that has produced 60-70% winners over an 11 year period, and thus far this tournamen season it hasn't let down a bit, as it has produced a record of 8-3 for 72.3%. North texas was a winner with their over last time out, and the play here will be the same. I like this one to go over the posted total.

The Colonial Conference has played 68%+ of all their tournament games to the under the last 11 years. This year they have outdone themselves with 9 of the 10 games played going under, pushing the 12 year history over the 70% mark to the UNDER. george Mason has now gone 8 games in the conference without seeing one of their games exceed the total. VCU has now played 10 straight games at neutral sites, without one going over the total. This one goes under the total.

This is another in a set of NCAAB Conference Tournament games that have connected on 60-70% over the last 11 years. So far they are 6-2 this tournament in posted plays. The amazing thing about this one is these two teams met twice this season with identical 71-59 outcomes in favor of George Mason. George Mason has held 13 Colonial Conference teams to 60 points or less during the regular season, and is 6-0-1 to the under in their last 7 as a favorite. Towson St. has played to an 8-2 mark to the under in their last 10 neutral site games.

This is another one of the conference tournament system plays that have been 60-70% winners over the past 11 years and it is active for this game. So far this season the tournament systems have gone 6-2 producing 75% winners. The Mean Green Eagles will certainly do their part to push this one over the total, as they have really come along offensively late in the season. The Eagles have averaged 81.6ppg in their last 7, and I like this one to go over the posted total.

This is another game that fits the NCAAB Conference Tournament systems I have been using that hit between 60-70%. So far this tournament they are 6-2 hitting 75%. Florida International with a healthy Asprilla and Galindo have been a much more consistent scoring team. W. Kentucky has been a much higher scoring team in the last half of the season, and have topped the 70 point mark in 13 of their last 20 games. I like this one to go over the total.

Neither one of these teams would be considered offensive minded, and when you take a hard look at what Memphis has done at home vs teams that are ranked in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored, it sure looks like an inflated total to me. The Grizzlies have played 9 such games at home, and they have averaged 87.7ppg. The opponents in those same 9 games have averaged 91.6ppg. That totals out to be 179 points per game, a full dozen points above what is posted for a total in this one. The games all together played to -107.5 combined to the posted total, meaning dividing that by 9, they covered by an average of 11.9 points per game. This total is set way to high, and I'm playing this one under.

Bradley and N. Iowa square off in the MVC Conference semi-finals. N. Iowa won 2 close games during the regular season, with both being low scoring affairs. This fits yet another of the blistering Conference Tournament systems that went 3-0 yesterday, 2-0 on Thursday, and 5-0 so far! This one is 64.3% over an 11 year period, and it is a very strong signal. These teams played tight, and low scoring during the regular season, and I look for the same here in this one, and the play is on the UNDER

I have a ton of weapons for my arsenol during conference tournament time, and this game fits a system that has cashed 64.3% of the time during the last 11 years. The conference tournament systems went 2-0 yesterday, and there is penty to choose from today. The Sulukis may have not had the type of season they have in the past few years, but they know how to play and win tournament games, and that is with mistake free patient offense, and sticky defense. Bradley scored 65 or less in 13 conference games, and I'm looking for this one to go under the total.

This is another one of my conference tournament system plays that have delivered over 60% winners over an 11 year period. This one stands at 61.4% during that span. Yesterday system tournament plays went 2-0. NC Wilmington has had a lost season. They finished with just 7 wins, and this is their last chance to put a positive on the season, and I expect them to play this one close to the vest, and not loose and free. Hofstra scored in the 60s or less in 14 conference games, and is not a team that likes to push the ball. I am playing this one to go under the total.

This game fits into a similar system that saw conference tournament winners yesterday in the 2 posted unders. This one weighs in with aan 11 year history of cashing 68.7% winners!!! Although Delaware played 10 of 14 overs in conference play, they did play their lowest scoring game against Georgia St. that saw just 108 points scored. Georgia St. had 10 games inside the conference where they scored 56 or less, and this one fits a big system, and will have a hard time topping the total. Play this one under the total.

The Denver Nuggets are having offensive issues right now, as they have now been held under 100 points in 8 of their last 11 games. This is a better defensive team than the past editions, and a team that isn't running up and down the floor like last year's team, that scored 100+ in 22 of their last 23 games. This is a team that still averages 103ppg, but does not average that at home vs the top 10 teams in the NBA in points allowed. That 103 dips to 96. Portland has had problems of their own scoring on the road vs teams over .500. Their last 11 games on the road vs top teams (.500 winning percentage or higher), has shown them to hit the 100 point mark offensively 0 times. The last time they managed to do it was on November 12th. It is also worth pointing out, that these same teams have averaged just 95.5ppg. against them. The Portland average has been 89.6ppg. Both these teams struggling to put up points, and I'll play this one to go under the total.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament gets underway in St. Louis tonight. This play is from my market inefficiency tables, one that has claimed the money 64.3% of the time. It is based on conference tournaments, and 11 years worth of data. It is one of the stronger ones I have regarding conference tournaments and I don't expect its value to decline this season. Since this is a strong trend, I am playing the UNDER here for 4 units.

How do you follow up a game that finished 38-33? That was the final score the first time these teams met, and I'm expecting another low scoring game here. The Nittany Lions last 7 games have averaged just 111ppg. Illinois has already had 2 games in conference play this season they couldn't reach 40, and go through extended offensive droughts frequently. They have consequently played 11 of their last 14 Big-10 games to the under, and in the process have held 5 teams under the 50 point mark. Ugly the first time around, ugly again. I'm going with the UNDER here.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament gets underway in St. Louis tonight. This play is from my market inefficiency tables, one that has claimed the money 64.3% of the time. It is based on conference tournaments, and 11 years worth of data. It is one of the stronger ones I have regarding conference tournaments and I don't expect its value to decline this season. Since this is a strong trend, I am playing the UNDER here for 4 units.

I like what this Oklahoma City team has done. They climbed out of a horrible start, and have become quite competitive, and despite their injuries, remain a threat. The offense which had been weak early has really stepped it up, and shines vs the bad teams at home, as the Thunder have averaged 98.8ppg at home vs the under .500 teams, and allowed 99.3ppg. Washington is not a good offense, until they take the road against the sub .500 teams, where they suddenly have averaged 100ppg, but at the same time are allowing 106ppg. Whichever way you look at this one, their is value in the over. There is also a huge system that backs the logic. I have a system that is live for this one, that under certain conditions, when 2 horrible teams do battle (both under 25% winning percentage), the over is 52-16 ATS and 20-6 ATS in qualifying games this season, for 77%. This system has been powerful enough that in the 68 games that fit it the last 3 years, 49 of them have gone over the total by 7 points or more! That is 74.2% winners to a line set 7 points higher than the actual line! I'm playing this one OVER, and it is my NBA total of the month!

The Tennessee St, Tigers have become a different team under a new coach. The Tigers who posted just 4 wins against div-1 schools in their first 21 game, suddenly have caught fire, and have won 6 straight. They have made the offense more uptempo, and have averaged 82.2ppg in those 6 games. They only scored 82 points in 2 other games all season, so things have definately changed here. Murray St. is a hot team as well, closing out the regular season 10-2, but struggled here against tennessee St. winning by just 4 in the regular season. Tennessee St. is a confident rejuvanated team right now, and is scoring quickly and often, and I will play this one to go OVER the total.

Defense has not been the strength of this Georgia Southern team all season. They have yielded 80 plus on 15 occasions this season. Those numbers get larger when they play the top 3 teams in the Conference, Davidson, Charleston, and this Citadel team. Their 5 games against the best in the conference shows them allowing 90.6ppg, and the 5 games have all topped this number and have averaged scoring 161.4ppg. Even their out of conference games vs the good teams saw Duke,Florida,Drake, and N. Dakota St. average 91.8ppg, and the games vs these teams average 163ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Wisconsin Badgers have revived their NCAA Tournament hopes after losing 7 straight games, and have now come back to win 5 of 6, the only loss at Michigan St. The defense has spearheaded the rally, as they are allowing just 51.3ppg in their last 6. The Wolverines have played 3 OT games on the Big-10 road, which makes them appear to be in higher scoring games than their 40 minute reality, which shows them playing at 118.8ppg on the road in the Big-10. Wisconsin has played to a total of 119.3ppg in their 7 Big-10 home games, not counting OT. each of these teams has exceeded this total just one time, or a total of 2 of the 14 games played and I like this one to go under the total.

These teams play some of the ugliest games in NBA history, and the last 7 times they have met in the regular season, 6 of the 7 failed to top the 180 mark. The Pistons are a shell of what they once were, but one thing hasn't changed, their defense. They have already had 8 games on the road this season vs teams with a winning record that have failed to reach this total, and 10 of their last 11 on the road vs winning teams have gone under the total. This one is no different, and I like the UNDER here.

These teams are clearly not offensive minded, as they both reside in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored. Charlotte remains as the only team with a losing record to reside in the top 10 in points allowed on the season. Combined these teams have played against teams in the bottom 10 in scoring offense and have seen just 4 of 13 games reach this level of total points scored. Not a single one of them went over 196, while there were several below 175. I like the chances of this one playing UNDER the total.

The New York Knicks have now reached the 100 point mark in 19 straight games. They have also allowed 100+ in 13 of their last 14. This total is set on those performances, but this one, is once again an overlay. The Heat will have something else in mind, they play much slower than what the Knicks want to play at, and will be an unwilling dance partner. The Heat have played 29 home games, and not a single one topped this total. The average points scored in Heat home games this season is just 190. The last 21 home games the Heat have played, just 2 teams reached 100 points against them. The average points allowed in these games is 92. The Heat have played at home against 6 teams that rank in the top 10 in points scored a game, and not a single one of them has scored over 100 points. I like this one to go under the total.

I am not sure what the oddsmakers are looking at in this one. The new Orleans Hornets just don't play high scoring games at home vs anyone, period. They have played 29 home games which includes games with Phoenix,Golden St, 2 with the Lakers, and 1 with the Knicks, and those 5 games against the top 4 offensive teams in the NBA produced 179,195,187,196, and 178 points. The most points scored in a Hornets home game this season has been 206, and their have been 3 others at 200,202, and 203. Their home totals vs Phoenix were set at 193, and vs Denver 199.5, so now Milwaukee is in here at over 200? The last 8 set at 193.5 or higher have all gone under by an average of 13.8ppg. This one goes under the total.

The New York Knicks really have the Mike D'Antoni offense clicking, as they have put up 100+ in 18 straight games. It has led to a very inflated total in this one. The Sixers have only played 6 games with a total set at 213 or higher on the season and have played under to every single one of them. They have also played 9 games on the road vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA, and the highest points scored in any of those games reached was 207. Overall the Sixers have played 20 games this season against the top 10 offenses in the NBA and only 2 or 10% have surpassed this total. The average points scored in those 20 games was just 194, almost 20 points lower than this one. The Knicks have had 11 games at home vs the NBA's top 10 defenses, and just 2 have exceeded this total. I will also point out that although the Knicks have scored 100+ in 18 straight, do you know the last team that held them under 100? It was the Philadelphia 76ers. This one is too high, and UNDER gets the call.

The Boston Celtics are a team capeable of playing fast or slow. They really play defense against the top teams, but just assume play an offensive game against the sub-.500 teams. That has translated into their last 10 games at home vs the sub .500 teams all going OVER the total (10-0). The Celtics have averaged 111.6ppg in these contests, while allowing 101ppg. The 10 games have played 18.8ppg OVER the total on average. The Pacers have scored 110+ in 10 of their last 14 road games, and I like this one to go OVER the total.

The Ivy league has shown just 2 teams that are capeable of putting points on the board, and that has been Cornell and Harvard, the rest of the league is offensively challenged and plays at a pace condusive to very low scoring games. The Ivy League has featured 41 games on the season that doe not involve Cornell or Harvard, and 31 of the 41 have fallen under the total, with Princeton and Brown serving to 11 of 14 between them. I like this one to go under the total.

The Ivy league has shown just 2 teams that are capeable of putting points on the board, and that has been Cornell and Harvard, the rest of the league is offensively challenged and plays at a pace condusive to very low scoring games. The Ivy League has featured 41 games on the season that doe not involve Cornell or Harvard, and 31 of the 41 have fallen under the total, with Penn and Yale contributing 9 of 13 between them. I like this one to go under the total.

Don't be fooled by the Clippers, who seem to be in high scoring games, and have upped the tempo, consider the competition. The Clippers have faced high octane Phoenix twice, the Knicks, and Golden St. in 4 of their last 5. What it has done is put a false reading on this team, as they have suddenly scored 116.3ppg in those 4 but inbetween played Portland and scored 87, and they played Charlotte just before that and put up 73. This is a Clipper team that has faced 6 teams at home all season ranked in the top 10 in points allowed, and has not scored more than 92, and averages 86.7. That means Boston must get to 115, something they have done just 3 times in their last 30 games, without the benefit of OT. Chances are, that the Clippers fall short of that 86.7 average because Boston is the best defensive team they will have seen all season. Even on the road the Clippers have not topped 96 in 8 games vs the top ten defenses. Boston has played against 15 teams on the road that have a losing record on the season, and the average points scored is 189.7ppg. This total has been pushed way out of proportion because of the recent games the Clippers have had vs big scoring, run and gun teams. I'm playing this one under the total.

The Denver Nuggets have done something they haven't done in a longtime. Thy went all of last year, and did not fail to score at least 80 points in a game, but suddenly they have done it twice in their last 6 games. It may cause some to be concerned with the Denver offense, battling a slump, it may cause others to see value in a suddenly deflated total in their game. I see the value in the deflated total that says OVER here. You have to consider the Nuggets played the most grueling part of their schedule, having the last 8 on the road. They fly home exhausted and face one of the top teams, and top defenses in the league in Boston, that put the clamps on them early. The Nuggets have gotten to 100+ in 11 of 14 home games vs teams with losing road records. Two of those 3 were 99, and 97. The fact is they are averaging 111.2ppg against these types of teams. To contrast, when they play at home vs teams with a winning road record, they have been held to under 100 in 6 of the 10 home games! The average plummets to 96.5ppg. They are 15ppg better at scoring against what they face tonight. Atlanta has allowed 107ppg on the road vs the top 10 scoring offenses in the NBA. The last 13 games played against these teams 12 of them put up 100+. This one goes over the total.

The Dallas Mavericks are off a game where they scored in the 70s. That becomes a red flag right away, as NBA teams aren't supposed to score in the 70s. It does however trigger an inefficiency within the marketplace of NBA wagering, and I'd like to address that. The totals in anticipated low scoring NBA games are typically set in the 170s, so the expectation is for teams to score in the 80s. You don't ever see expectations of teams scoring in the 70s. That is the line of demarkation for the gambler, the oddsmaker, and the team. Are they slumping? The oddsmaker then takes his computer generated total, and begins to shave what and where the total should be to hedge the betting public. VALUE IS BORN!!! The NBA has featured 168 games since the beginning of last year, where a team scored in the 70s. The result of the next game, was that the OVER scored the cash to a record of 101-68 or 60% of the time. I will back the OVER in this one as my NBA Play of the Day.

Sometimes the sports wagering market is much like the stockmarket. Sell on the good news. buy on the bad news. Thus is the case with this Memphis team, that just put up 79 points in their last game. That becomes a but sign in the NBA, as teams that score less than 80 points in their previous game, play OVER at a 60% rate in their next game. This offensively challenged team suddenly becomes alive against the worst 10 NBA teams in allowing points. The Grizzlies are averaging 102ppg against these teams on the road. The line seldom sinks below 210 for a Pacer home game, but when it does, 8 of the last 10 have gone over the total, and this one will as well.

The Detroit Pistons have a struggling offense, and when they win, they need the defense to step up, which isn't as easy on the road. The Pistons allow 90+ on the road 60% of the time, and Miaimi scores 90+ at home 79% of the time. Detorit also scores 90+ on the road 56% of the time, while Miami allows opponents to score 90+ in their home games 68% of the time. The overall picture says 90+ points occurs 66% of the time in this situation. Their matchup in Detroit saw this bearing out, as each team reached the 90 point mark. Recent trends show Miami scoring 90+ in 8 of their last 9 at home, and allowing 90+ in 6 straight. This one is going over the posted total.

The Cavs have been punishing teams at home, and have suffered just 1 loss on the season in their building. What gets lost in the fact that this team is the #1 defense in the NBA in points allowed, they still average over 100ppg. The offense plays looser whn playing against the under .500 teams at home. The Cavs average goes up over 8 points a game to 108.4ppg against these teams, and at the same time the defense relaxes, as the poor teams average more points at 92.7ppg, vs the Cavs season average of 90.8ppg. Overall the grizzlies have become more offensive-minded. They were averaging 86.4ppg in the 11 games that preceeded their last 10, and in those last 10, a full 10ppg more at 96.6ppg. The defense did not allow 110+ in any of the 11 games, but the last 10 have seen them allow 110+ on 4 occasions. Definately playing a faster game right now, and I'll go with the over here.

The Denver Nuggets are a better team defensively this season, and not quite as fast paced team we have seen in the past. They have had just 3 of 11 games top the 200 point mark vs the top 10 defensive teams at home. The Celtics have been one of the tp defensive teams in the NBA. The Celtics bring their best defense for the best teams when they travel. They have allowed just 1 team that is .500+ on the season, in their last 13 on the road to score 100 points on them. It was Phoenix, who scored 140+ in the 3 before Boston. The other 12 games have seen an average of just 176.3ppg scored combined in them, and no game other than the Phoenix game reaching 200 points scored. I like this one to go under the total.

The Knicks have been perfecting the Mike D'Antoni run and gun offense and have now scvored 100+ in their last 16 games. They have also allowed 100+ in 10 of their last 11. The Knicks have played 10 games vs the top 7 offenses in the league to an average of 232 points scored per game. Pacers are always accomodating to run and gun contests themselves as they have averaged 233 points in their 9 games vs the top 7 offenses. I like this one to go over the total.

I've played this game under between these teams the last few years everytime they play. Since LeBron James arrived in Cleveland, and the Cavs became a competitive team, these teams play defensive wars. The last one ended at 170. That ran the string to 19-0 to the under, not counting one OT game. These teams have averaged 168.5ppg in the meetings, and the total went under by an average of 15.45 points a game. If you go back even further, the under is 22-1. No other way to play this one, and I'll back the under here.

The New York Knicks have now gotten the Mike D'Antoni system down, and it shows in their points scored and allowed, but not by the oddsmaker. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 15 straight, averaging 112.6ppg. They have also allowed 100+ in 9 of their last 10, allowing 114.5ppg. The Knicks are the Warriors last year, without the high price attached to playing them over. The result has been 10 straight going over the total. The average total in the 10 game streak is almost identical to this one, at 215ppg on average. I will go with the streak, and play this one over.

The New York Knicks have now gotten the Mike D'Antoni system down, and it shows in their points scored and allowed, but not by the oddsmaker. The Knicks have scored 100+ in 15 straight, averaging 112.6ppg. They have also allowed 100+ in 9 of their last 10, allowing 114.5ppg. The Knicks are the Warriors last year, without the high price attached to playing them over. The result has been 10 straight going over the total. The average total in the 10 game streak is almost identical to this one, at 215ppg on average. I will go with the streak, and play this one over.

The Sixers were hot for awhile, and have cooled down, and right now they are really struggling to find their offense. During their hot streak they scored 100+ in 7 of 8, but now have only reache the 100 mark in 2 of their last 11, and were held to 84 at home vs this same Miami team just 2 weeks ago. The Heat has been playing great D against winning teams at home, as they are allowing just 93ppg, against much better offense than what Philadelphia brings to this one. Sixers exceptionally tough after allowing 100+ as the under has gone 16-5-1 after they allow 100+. These teams have played under in 7 of the last 8 meetings, and I expect this one to follow suit and go UNDER the total.

The Celtics have a knack for turning games vs good opponents defensive. They have met 12 teams with a .500+ record on the road this season, and not a single one has managed to reach the 100 mark against them. The last 12 have averaged just 87.5ppg. It is interesting to note that the Jazz have scored 100+ at home in 11 of their last 13. The teams that stopped them? Defensive minded Cleveland, and Detroit. This one looks more like a game where the winner may just eke out 100, if that, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Pistons are a team on the decline, as trade rumors swirl around Rasheed Wallace. The defense is still there, ranked 5th in the league, but the offense is nowhere to be found. These teams have traditionally played ugly defensive games, and 7 of the last 8 between them have gone under the total. If you look at what Detroit has done at home vs the top NBA teams, it points well under here, as they played Cleveland to a 170 point total, Bston to 164, and 164, Orlando to 170, and Portland to 181. They are 6-0 to the under at home to the teams with a winning percentage of .600+. They played in San Antonio earlier in the season to a game that totalled 166 points. That means in the last 7 meetings between these two teams the total points scored has been 166,164,170,179,151, and 155 points. That is an average over the last 4 years of 165.1ppg. I like this one to go under the total.

The New Orleans Hornets have brought their "A" game defense to every home game vs the top teams this season. They have played 13 games at home vs teams with a .500+ record, and not one scored over 100 points, and 8 were held in the 80s. They have not been very offensive either, as they have managed 104 vs Cleveland way back on November 1st, but have since produced 90 or less in 8 of the 12. Since that 1st game with Cleveland, the Hornets have produced just 1 game that topped the 190 mark vs .500+ teams at home, and that was high scoring Phoenix, but that one only managed 195. These teams met on Christmas Day and the game produced just 154 points. I like this one to go UNDER.

The Denver Nuggets aren't anything like the team we saw last year that ran and played no defense. This year they still like to pick their spots to get up and down the court, but they are actually holding opponents to under 100ppg. Last year's version of the Nuggets saw them score more than 105 points in 57 of 82 games or 70% of the time. This season just 22 out of their first 53 games, or 41.5%. Those 53 games include 17 vs the top 10 defenses in the NBA in terms of points allowed. The Nuggets have topped 105 in just 1. On the road vs these teams, which Philadelphia is one, they have averaged just 93.5ppg. The Sixers have allowed just 95ppg to teams over .500 on the season at home, and they are also 7-2 ATS at home to a total of 200+. This one is set too high, and I'll play under here.

The Eastern Illinois Panthers are a Princeton style team, and that has become increasingly evident as the season goes on. The Panthers games were slow once conference play started, but has become even moreso of late, and with fast paced Tennessee Martin coming in, they are going to try to make this one even slower. The Panters last 12 games have gone under the total. They have averaged just 58.6ppg and are allowing 60.8ppg. The last 3 they have played featured games that had just 81,95, and 90 shots taken, while averaging 32 free throw attempts. If 90 shots are put up here it would take 50% shooting from both teams, 20 made 3's, and 25-32 FT's made, to push this one over, none of the 3 are likely, and I'm playing this one under.

Austin Peay plays in some of the highest scoring games in the country, and it has translated to a 14-2 mark to the over, in their lined totals. Their last 4 games have featured both themselves, and their opponent scoring 80+, and in their last 9, they have averaged 81 and allowed 81. Their earlier game this season vs Jacksonville St. scored 166. Jacksonville St. has also played twice against the other scoring machine in the OVC, Tennessee Martin, and both games produced an average of 169 points. This game is played in the 150s at least. OVER gets the call.

It's easy to look at the Pistons team that has lost 6 of their last 7 at home, and has been in some high scoring games of late, and say they are washed up. The fact is their last 7 home games have been against teams with a combined 234-132 record or .639 winning percentage. The Bucks are a vastly improved team, and have scored 120+ in their last 3, all at home. The difference here is this. The Bucks have scored 109.8ppg in their last 12 at home, while scoring just 95.6ppg in their last 12 on the road. Huge difference!! So this total is juiced by the Bucks surge of late, but it is definately has not translated on the road. Now, if you take the Bucks and put their offense on the road vs the NBA's top 10 defenses in terms of points allowed, the Bucks on the season average 90.5ppg in this spot. That puts pressure on a Piston offense so somehow produce 107 points if averages hold to put this game over the total. When you consider the fact that in the last 30 games they have played, they have not reached that 107 point mark without the benefit of overtime, that makes for a lot of value on the under here. UNDER is my call in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats are a rare team. They are the only team in the NBA that has a losing record, despite being ranked in the top 10 in points allowed. The reason is simply, because they play a half-court game, and don't have much of an offense. What it does for them, is allow them to hold teams down, but at the same time the real good teams, that rank in the top 10 defensively hold them down easily. They have faced 6 teams in the top 10 in points allowed per game on the road this season, and they have managed just 79,81,89,80,74, and 87 points. That works out to just 80.5ppg. Those same teams have only managed 95ppg vs Charlotte's defense. Overall they have played 16 games vs the top 10 in points allowed, and have given up just 95ppg in the 15 on average. They have scored 84.4ppg themselves. This one is more likely to play in the 170s, and there is lots of value on the under here, and I'm going under in this one.

The Redbirds have really found the going tough in conference play. After opening the season 14-0 and 3-0 in conference play, they have slipped to 6-5 in their las11 games. When you consider they haven't won on the road in any of their past 6 by more than 3, things have certainly changed. Their last 7 on the road has shown them to average just 57.1ppg in regulation minutes. Bulldogs stepping up the defense after an ATS loss as they are 8-1 ATS under after an ATS loss. Redbirds 5-1 to the under after a SU win. This one plays under the total.