This game applies to a situation which is 77-29 ATS, and the play is on the over

The New Orleans Pelicans have had trouble getting things going this season, as they refuse to play defense. It hasn`t hurt them as much at home as it has on the road. New Orleans averages just 95.8ppg on the road, but at home they are torching the twine at 110.1ppg. The problem is, despite the lofty offense at home, they are getting out-scored here, and the result is 221.8 total points per game when they take the floor at home. Boston will be happy to accommodate a fast pace, as Boston is the Pelican`s equal, launching 88 shots per contest. New Orleans is 7-2 to the over at home, and has a willing partner here. Moreover, this game fits a situation that is 55-15 ATS, to the over as well. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation which is 487-380, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 220-139, and the play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs are a very good team, and right now they are a very good team playing at the top of their game with 7 wins in their last 8 games. Boston has had difficulty against them having lost 8 straight times at the hands of the Spurs, the last being a defensive struggle, that saw San Antonio come away from The Garden with a 95-87 win. The Celtics have never done well offensively against San Antonio as they average a mere 90.4ppg against them in the last 38 meetings, with the under prevailing 23-15. it has gotten even worse of late with Boston failing to top the 93 point mark in the last 6 meetings and averaging under 90ppg. While they have defended well vs the Spurs, holding them to 98.8ppg, the lack of answers on offense has kept them out of the win column. This game fits a 247-171 situation on the total, and the play is on the under.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had their issues over the last 7 years with the Portland Trailblazers, and the problem has been on the defensive end. Portland has scored 100 points or more in 22 of the 24 games played over the period, and consequently, just 6 of those 24 meetings have played under the total, with the Blazers blistering the cords for 107.2ppg. When these teams have met to a total from 193 to 205.5, they have played to a 13-1 mark to the over, thrashing the total by just shy of 10ppg. Portland games this season have seen both teams average over 101ppg, so this total certainly looks to be reachable, and Portland's last 2 games have seen both teams top the 110 point mark. teams playing on the road after a pair of games that saw both teams, in both games score 110+, have seen the combined score of their games average 210ppg. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 234-139 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 263-174 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-23 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 234-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 485-379 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 485-379 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 260-143 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 260-143 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 57-17 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 218-139 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 169-108 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 95-35 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 58-20 ATS, make the play on the under.

I have 3 very strong historical situations for this game which are 77-28, 122-71, and 55-15, all against the spread, and on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 259-141 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 259-141 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 259-141 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Detroit Pistons after years of lacking a competitive nature appear to have turned the corner. They are led by Andre Drummond who is averaging 19.2ppg along with a scary 18.2rpg. The Pistons are off to a 7-5 start and look to have some staying power. Washington is over .500 with a pair of wins in their last 2 games to move to 5-4 on the season. The Wizards have finally decided to start defending after allowing 110+ points in 5 of 6 games, they have held each of their last 2 opponents under the century mark. The Pistons have held 8 of 12 opponents under the 100 point mark and are 8-4 to the under on the season. This game also fits a situation based on a pair of teams both off big wins, that has a long term record of 111-62 to the under. Make the play in this game, on the under.

This game fits a 233-138 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 213-149 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs have gotten off to a fast start, and after an opening night loss have won 8 of their last 9, and have out-scored their opponents by nearly 11ppg on the season. The Nuggets are off to a 6-5 start, and have reached the century mark in 7 of their 11 games, while allowing 95 or more points in each of their last 10. Both of these teams have played to totals that have averaged over 200 points a game this season, and the pace of these teams are consistently above average with each team's average shots for both teams is 169 per contest. there have been over 8500 NBA games in the last 26 years where more than 165 shots have been taken by both teams, and the average total has been 200.3, and 60.4% of those have gone over that 200.3 total, and the average points scored by both teams has been 205.4 points, so clearly looking at game similarities, we see several points of value on the total here. If we lower total shots to greater than 160 we still get games that have averaged 202.3 points, and that is 10% less that what these teams have averaged. I also have a huge totals indicator, that has been 94-35 ATS to the over as well, and applies to this contest. Lots of value here, make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 58-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 356-248 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 356-248 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 164-110 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 356-248 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 356-248 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 483-377 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 58-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 73-37 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 76-43 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 216-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 216-136 ATS and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 72-37 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 169-107 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation which is 89-44 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation which is 168-107 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 126-82 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which has gone 257-140 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which has gone 257-140 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which has gone 213-136 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 76-28 ATS, make the play on the over.

This game fits a very strong 61-30 ATS situation, the play is on the under.

This game fits a very strong 61-30 ATS situation, the play is on the under.

This game fits a very strong 125-82 ATS situation, the play is on the under.

This game fits a very strong 61-30 ATS situation, the play is on the under.

This game fits a very strong 61-30 ATS situation, the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year`s perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 55-25 mark, and the play is on the under.

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year's perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 53-24 mark, and the play is on the under. 

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year's perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 53-24 mark, and the play is on the under. 

This is a game 1 specific situation, that has produced a 68.8% win rate. Totals at this point of the season are based on last year's perception, and since bettors love playing the over, they are usually stepped up by odds makers as opposed to reduced, for that reason. This situation has produced a 53-24 mark, and the play is on the under. 

This series has been a very defensive oriented first 5 games. Most consider Golden St. as a team like they were in the past, all offense and no defense. That simply has not been the case this season, as Golden St. was ranked #1 in opponents FG% allowing 42.8%, and #5 in 3pt FG% at 33.7%. Memphis has had control of the pace of the game all series, as Golden St. is averaging 9 fewer shots per game than their season average, while Memphis is getting to the line 4 fewer times per contest. Golden St. simply hasn't been able to play their game, and the scores and pace indicate that Memphis has been in control. Golden St. has failed to score 102 or more points just 24 times in 91 games, and all 5 in this series. They are 22-2 to the under when they don't reach 102. Memphis on the other hand, has held 67 opponents to 101 or less, and are 48-17-2 to the under when doing so (28-6 at home). Golden St. is on an 8-0 under run following a game where they won by 10+ points, and 40-17-1 to the under in their last 58 vs the NBA Southwest, including 5-0 to the under in their last 5 trips to Memphis. Memphis is 38-12 to the under in their last 50 overall, which includes 23-2 to the under in their last 25 at home, covering the under by over 11ppg, with just 182ppg scored by both teams. Just 8 of 50 possible team scores have reached 100, or 16%, and it is fairly certain with a total of 193.5-194, someone has to get into the 100s to push this over the top. This game also fits a playoff situation based in part on being a closeout game, and the last 2 having played under the total, which is now 47-8 ATS to the under. My NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE UNDER.

By the time a series gets to a closeout game, the under becomes a viable consideration. That is because over the last 10 years in the NBA playoffs a closeout game has played 176-136-4 to the under. This series opened with a game 1 fair total of 211.5, but the fact that there have been 4 straight over the total, it has now ballooned to 219 (Bovada) and climbing. That sets up a huge chunk of value on the under for this one, as NBA playoff close out games (meaning at least 1 team has a chance to win the series in this upcoming game), that have been preceded by 4 straight games playing over the total are 13-0 to the under! Not only that, they have beaten the total by 15.1ppg! Make the play on the under.

Golden St. has been considered a mega offensive team this season. They haven't been quite as sharp on the road, as their scoring drops 6.2ppg. Meanwhile this game falls right into the sweet spot under the total for New Orleans who is 8-2 to the under at home to a total of 200.5-205.5, as well as 9-2 on the road to a total of 203-208, and they have also played to a 6-0 mark to the under in their last 6 following a loss. Golden St. in 43 home games this season scored 100 or less just 3 times, one was against New Orleans, while they have scored 100 or less 15 times on the road (5 times more likely), and again, one of those was vs New Orleans. This game also fits a playoff totals situation which has gone 47-15 ATS o the under as well. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 254-138 and the play is on the under.

The Miami Heat have struggled for much of the season, and their is a firm line in the sand for this team. They are 14-0 SU and 12-0-2 ATS when they score 105 points or more, and 21-43 SU and 22-41-1 ATS when they score less than 105. The problem is Chicago has allowed 105+ in just 6 of their last 30 games, and Miami 105+ just 14 times all season, so the Bulls appear to have the edge in this one, but I like the total better, in a low scoring game, as this one fits a 30-9 total situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a strong total situation which is 61-26 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 253-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 253-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 207-130 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 207-130 ATS, and the play is on the under.

It took the Brooklyn Nets most of the season to get things figured out, but they have won 10 of their last 12 games, and thankfully play in the soft Eastern Conference, where if the season ended today, they are a playoff team. The Nets scored 110 or more points just 6 times prior to the all-star break, but have since done so 8 times, 4 of which have come since March 20th. The Nets were averaging just 95.5ppg prior to the break and 103.5ppg since. Their games have seen 11.5ppg more scoring since that point, and the full adjustment has not been made. This game also fits a 42-14 situation, that plays on over the total. Make the play on the over.

The Charlotte Hornets have had a disappointing season after making the playoffs a year ago, it appears they will fall short this season as they are running out of games. It has been another long season for the 76ers as they have just 18 wins. They have been awful offensively on the road where they average just 88.1ppg, but they have been much more efficient at home where they average 95.2ppg, better than 7ppg vs their road offense. This game fits a bad team v bad team situation involving their awful 3 point shooting which is 222-158. Make the play on the over.

If a #1 seed plays a team seeded #4 or worse in the Final Four, the under is 6-0 since 97-98. They have averaged falling 10.33ppg under the total.  I know 6 games are not a lot to go by, but in a F4 setting there is never going to be  significant sample size. I like the idea behind it,  Personally, I get a couple of points of value on this anyway, and the Michigan St. defense has been very Izzo-like in the tournament, 33.9% shooting against and 23.7% on 3's against. I know they will see a much more efficient offense here, but Duke just 41-101 in last 2 vs better competition, and the Duke "D" has stepped up big at 86-234  .368 against, and 14-58  .241 on 3's. I've watched Okafor the last 2 games, and he looks like he has hit the wall, while Winslow and Jones look like polished seniors, paying fearless, and elevating their game, and Cook has been big as well. Okafor may have some life with size advantage which was missing the last 2 games, but he looked tired, and somewhat going through the motions. I think overall Duke is more than 5 points better than Michigan St., but have seen this movie before, a team galvanizes down the stretch, and what was once less than the sum of the parts, becomes greater tan the sum of the parts, and that is Mich St. right now, believing you can win, is half the battle, and they certainly are buying into it. Overall anytime a #4 or worse seed plays in the Final 4 round, the under has been 12-2-1. Totals in this round of less than 150 have been 17-7 to the under in the last 24. Make the play on the under.

Teams that are off a road loss to a division opponent, and now face a team that lost their last game, and in doing so, failed to reach 80 points, have soared over the total to an 89-43 mark over the last 19 NBA seasons. Make the play on the over.

The Brooklyn Nets are doing the best they can down the stretch to make it into the playoffs, and they have moved into the #8 slot on the strength of a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. The Nets offense, lying dormant most of the season has come to life averaging 106ppg in the stretch. Toronto has allowed 100+ points in 12 of their last 18 games, while allowing just shy of 103ppg. This game also fits a high total, mediocre team with momentum situation that plays over a total of 200 or more if the home team has won at least 8 of their last 10, and is between 40-49% on the season in terms of winning percentage. These teams are 24-3 getting above the total, make the play on the over.

This game fits a 61-31 ATS situation, that is based for the most part on the inability of these teams to knock down 3's. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 253-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 205-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 476-373 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 205-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 205-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Love the over in this spot. Kentucky has been considered an elite defensive team, and rightfully so. However, the SEC was a joke this year with the offenses really bad, which made the numbers look better than reality.

SEC OFFENSE FG%:

The only truly good shooting team was Vandy 47.5% but they were not a good team

Then you have:

LSU .455 69 points vs KY 28-59
Ark .447 67 21-56
Ark .447 63 24-54
----------------------------------------------------------
No other SEC team was even in the top 130!

OUT OF CONFERENCE:

All the good teams they faced were poor offensive teams:

Louisville
Kansas (44% many think better than reality)
Providence

The only good offense was NC and vs UK:

27-60 70 points
---------------------------------------------------------------

So 4 games against teams that shot at least decent to very good and:

100-229 .437

Way above the elite status of the KY defense, and points as well at 269/4 67.3ppg

ALSO:

ND:

9 toughest defenses they faced this yr:

all in the top 55 in defensive FG% allowed .368 to .402:

228-481 47.5% 74.4ppg

They shoot low 40s or better, this game is going over.


ND should be able to shoot 45% here, and if they are on maybe even better, and if that is the case, this game goes over the total.

This game fits a situation which is 80-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 80-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Sacramento Kings are 25-45 on the season, and once again heading nowhere, but to their credit they have continued to play hard, and have been rewarded with 3 straight wins. This team has changed their approach to the game late in the season. The Kings are playing at a much faster tempo as they have averaged 106.1ppg in their last 13. Phoenix at 104.2ppg is certainly not shy about getting up and down the floor either, and this game looks like it could turn into a track meet, and history supports that as well, as this game fits the profile of a 31-6 ATS situation that plays on the over. Sacramento's running style has them at 6-0 ATS to the over in their last 6, and overall at 9-2 to the over in their last 11. make the play over the total in this one.

The Brooklyn Nets and the Charlotte Hornets were both playoff teams a year ago, and both appeared to be teams on the rise. Here we are late in the season, and if it ended today, neither would be in the playoffs. One of the biggest weaknesses of both these teams has been 3pt shooting as they both enter connecting at under 33% for the year. That sets the stage for  a situation that plays on losing teams facing each other that connect on less than 33% each from deep. This situation has been a huge over indicator at 163-101 to the over since 1996. Brooklyn cmes in at 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5 vs a losing team, Charlotte at 6-0-1 to the over in their last 7 vs a losing team, and none of the last 7 meetings between these clubs have stayed under the total. Make the play on the over.

This game also plays into a strong over tendency, that has a poor team, .250 or less, off 3 straight spread losses, and a modest total that is set in the 190s, and squaring off vs a team better than .500. These teams have played 32-5 to te under in the last 37 opportunities. Knicks recent play vs a winning team further enhances that, as they are 8-2 to the over in their last 10, and the Cliippers are 10-4-2 to the under in their last 16 vs a team below .400. Make the play on New York, and the under in this one.

The dream of the playoffs ended a long time ago for both these teams. Sacramento hpwever, has delivered big in their last 2 games, where they won both games as a home dog. That often can inspire a team that otherwise doesn't have a whole lot to hang their hat on, and it usually transforms itself to renewed intensity on the defensive end. Teams with a losing record that win 2 straight as a home dog have come back to go 22-6 to the under in their next game. The Sixers have not gotten out of the 80s in their last 4 road games that ended in regulation. The Sixers in fact average just 87.2ppg on the road this season, compared to 94.7ppg at home, and are 43-27 to the under on the season, and 11-23 to the under vs a losing team. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 71-23 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 71-23 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 36-8 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 252-136 ATS and the play is on the under.

Not a lot of time but this total has gone way up. Cincinnati over their last 101 games has allowed more than 70 points just 5 times. They are also 55-14 to the under the last 3 years, playing to a total of greater than 116.5. Bovada has this at 123 now, play the under Cinn vs KY!

The San Antonio Spurs are one of a very few NBA teams that show up on the defensive end of the court, even against brutally bad teams. I think the Knicks, and their 13 season to date wins, qualifies in that thought process. So let's review the Knicks. The Knicks have been a bad team all season, but dealing Shumpert, shutting down Melo, and dealing Amare Stoudemire, as left this poor team bankrupt of talent. The end result is their last 22 games have seen them average 89.3ppg. We then take a look at the Spurs. Since 1996 the Spurs when facing a team that has a winning percentage of less than .250, do their thing on the defensive end. They have allowed just 89.4ppg. What is also worth noting is they score less than 100ppg on average at 99.7ppg. All other teams allow 94.3ppg in this spot and score over 100ppg! This game clearly belongs in the 180s in terms of the total, and there are several points of value here. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 70-23, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 70-23, and the play is on the under.