This game fits a situation that is 83-36 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 56-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 29-5 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 133-88 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 222-123 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 133-88 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 248-132 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 104-45 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 86-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 86-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 248-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 32-6 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 32-6 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 105-50 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 316-183 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 316-183 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 316-183 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 132-85 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 310-177 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 219-123 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 244-137 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 84-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 244-137 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 33-5 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 108-67 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 131-82 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 78-33 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 216-123 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 130-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 130-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 242-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-57 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 241-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 504-350 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 240-137 ATS, and the play is on the under. (Sorry for the confusion, I made a mistake on the last entry).

This game fits a situation that is 216-122 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 310-175 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 310-175 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-57 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 239-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 239-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-61 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 238-134 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 127-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 504-349 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 232-106 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 503-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 68-39 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 313-197 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-132 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-131 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 125-81 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 556-419 ATS and the play is on the under.

1)  Team has allowed 100 or more points in at least 5 straight games. 

2)   Opponent is off a close win of 3 points or less.

These teams have played to a 80-125-12 O/U mark, or 61% of the time fall shy of the total.

We also have a team in the NY Knicks that has played 8 straight to the over, and this is where the value becomes positive on the under.

Play under on a team if they have played 8 or more straight games over the total. This covers 55% of the time as well.

Consider the NY Knicks and Denver Nuggets under the total tonight.

This game fits a situation that is 68-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-195 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Coach Bennett since he has been at Virginia has been an under machine. His team off a game that scored 125 points or less, and is playing to a total of above 116 in their next game is 80-35 to the under. Make the play on the under.

There are a lot of reasons I like this game to go over and situationally there is support. Jacksonville, in non-division games off a win where they committed 0 turnovers and had time of possession of at least 28 minutes, facing a team off of at least 2 wins is 21-0 ATS to the over.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 124-80 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 168-93 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-137 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 106-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

 I have access to a lot of NFL stats, and with the playoffs, and teams from northern climates, the weather can become a factor. This game fits nicely into a weather factor game, due to the cold, and a team from a southern climate. The high in Pittsburgh is expected to be 17 on Sunday, so this game will be played with temperatures in the teens. The most recent 36 games played with a game time temperature from 11-20 degrees shows a big impact on the passing game, and ultimately the number of plays run in a game. Home QB`s pass for an average of 5.85 yds per attempt, road QB`s just 5.25 yards per attempt, much below average. When you look at games played in an average temperature of 61-70 the number of plays run is 120, when the temp. is 11-20 it drops to 113, 7 less plays. Moreover, a team from a southern climate, such as Jacksonville, averages 16.4ppg in this temp. range. Overall, including both teams, the 146 QB`s participating in 73 games in this range have thrown TD passes of 3 in 14 games, exactly 2 in 31 games, exactly 1 in 52 games, and 0 in 49 games. That means TD passes per QB is 101 of 146 throwing 1 or less TD pass. These numbers sugget a wise historically backed play on the under

The New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar spot, at home on a Saturday Night in week 19. This is New England and many times these games have been played in less than ideal conditions, and that will be the case in Foxboro Saturday Night. Right now Saturday is projected to see the temperature go from the low 60s on Friday afternoon, with 2-3" of rain, to a low of 8 degrees Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. I know the field is covered, but it is going to be treacherous footing as the game goes on. A soft field is going to become rock hard, and icy during the course of the game. Additionally, winds will be gusting over 20 MPH, and the combination is going to limit offenses, and the kicking game. I expect Tennessee to try and run and shorten the game, and should have some success vs a soft NE front. The New England offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in past years, and I look for this game to play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 234-130 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 61-28 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 165-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 233-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 549-426 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 231-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 78-33 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 286-219 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 229-129 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 548-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 227-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 961-801 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-347 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under