02-29-20 |
Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 155 |
Top |
86-73 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 41 m |
Show
|
A high level MAC Conference game has Akron taking on Buffalo. The Bulls were a Cinderella type team a year ago, but lost a lot of firepower. They are still scoring because of a fast pace attack but the shooting percentages are considerably down from a year ago. Akron is 21-7 and in a similar boat, as they like to run as well, but are not a very efficient offense. Both these teams defend very well. Akron has been a fool's gold team as they tend to score a lot of points, but never reach the potential set by the odds-makers. Akron is 62-34-1 ATS to the under in its last 97 games, and their last 8 have played under the total, none reaching the level here to go over. Make the play on the under.
|
02-29-20 |
Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
62-58 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Kansas Jayhawks are a successful team every year because they have the ability and willingness to defend. This allows this team to win on the road and it has shown up in the scores of their road games. Over their last 99 road games they are 66-29-4 ATS to the under. They have not allowed any team to score more than 63 points against them on the road this season, leading to a 10-0 ATS mark to the under on the road. Additionally, the Kansas offense averages 79ppg on the season at home and just 67.8ppg on the road. This has led to 21ppg less scoring on the road. Kansas St. allows just 61.6pph at home on the season. Make the play on the under.
|
02-28-20 |
Wizards v. Jazz OVER 232 |
Top |
119-129 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Washington Wizards have no regard on the defensive end of the court. They love to run and shoot, and play to outscore the opponent regardless of who they are. When they play on the road they are allowing 130ppg on the season. Put them in a high total of more than 229 points and they are 15-2 ATS to the over with an average of 251.1ppg scored beating the total by +16.88ppg. (11-0 ATS in their last 11. Make the play on the over.
|
02-25-20 |
Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 231 |
Top |
108-97 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.
|
02-24-20 |
Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 236.5 |
Top |
123-139 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.
|
02-24-20 |
Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 241 |
Top |
137-134 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.
|
02-22-20 |
LSU v. South Carolina OVER 155 |
Top |
86-80 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
LSU is now 53-26-2 ATS to the over in its last 81 road games. That includes 7-1 this season where their road games have averaged 164.3ppg. Make the play on the over.
|
02-22-20 |
Massachusetts v. Fordham UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
57-49 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
Trying to speed this Fordham team up at home is an improbable task. The Rams play great defense, and their methodical style, leads to low possession ugly games. The Rams are 90-69-5 to the under here, including 65-39-5 to the under most recently, and 11-3-1 this season. UMass is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 overall. Make the play on the under.
|
02-21-20 |
Suns v. Raptors OVER 228 |
Top |
101-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
The Toronto Raptors saw their 15 game winning streak come to an end just prior to the All-Star break. They will begin the 2nd half at 40-15 on the season. The Raptors have piled up the points vs bad teams this season as they average 120.3ppg vs an opponent that is .400 or worse. That has led them to a 16-4 mark to the over in those 20 games. This game also fits a 90-48 ATS mark situation on the over. Make the play over the total in this one.
|
02-20-20 |
Nets v. 76ers OVER 216 |
Top |
104-112 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
The NBA All-Star break is over, so is their anything in terms of a situation that has developed after the long layoff? Today we will take a look at a situation that has occurred the 1st game back from the All-Star game, apparently defense is not part of the mindset when we have this scenario: 1) 1st game after the All-Star break 2) Home favorite of more than -3 3) Winning percentage greater than .390 and less than .730 4) Since 1999 NBA0152: AASB and p:BASB and HF and line39 and WP1998SU:100-41 (7.69, 70.9%) ATS:74-66-1 (0.55, 52.9%) avg line: -7.1O/U:90-48-3 (5.56, 65.2%) avg Defense is obviously still on the break as these teams have crashed the total at a 65.2% rate covering 141 games. Tonight consider Philadelphia/Brooklyn OVER the total.
|
02-20-20 |
Troy State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 151.5 |
Top |
60-90 |
Loss |
-113 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
Coastal Carolina and Troy both like to push the tempo and I expect these teams are going to put up some points tonight. Coastal Carolina is 16-9 to the over on the season and has allowed 75+ points in 8 straight games and 10 out of 11. Troy has allowed 76ppg in their last 12. A road team off of 3 straight losses by 6 or fewer points, facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 80+ are 14-0-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over.
|
02-19-20 |
Samford v. Mercer OVER 149 |
Top |
66-106 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Samford has allowed 81ppg in their last 69 games on the road. That has led them to a 46-20 mark to the over. Make the play on the over.
|
02-18-20 |
Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 |
Top |
67-76 |
Loss |
-123 |
9 h 42 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 60-43 to the under. Make the play on the under.
|
02-18-20 |
Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 135 |
Top |
47-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
W. Virginia has shot the ball woefully bad in their last 3 games at 62-191. That is just 32.5% from the field. Kansas and Baylor may have played a role in some of that a pair of elite defensive teams. What it has done is set them up in this game for a strong over situation. Home teams that have shot 35% or less in at least 3 straight games are 65-26-3 to the over if the posted total is fewer than 141 points. Make the play on the over.
|
02-16-20 |
All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis UNDER 306.5 |
Top |
157-155 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
I generally do not weigh in on the NBA All-Star game as it has become a defenseless dunk fest. The rules this year are completely different. Each quarter is for charity with the winner of each quarter receiving 100k for their charity. The final quarter will be played without a clock. The game will end like this. Whatever the score is after 3 quarters, there will be 24 points added to the team that leads after 3 quarters, and when that total score is reached, the game ends. EXAMPLE: The West leads 110-105 going into quarter 4. Add 24 to the 110 and the game will be won by the first team that reaches 134. (110+24). This new format means each team will likely play competitive basketball at least in the final 4 minutes of each of the 1st 3 quarters, and all of the 4th quarter. That is 24 minutes of real basketball potentially. It also means that the 4th quarter is going to be very low scoring. It is conceivable that the team that is leading wins the 4th quarter 24-14 for a 38 point quarter. The last 8 NBA All-Star games has averaged 337 total points. If you strip down a 4th quarter that will likely play out to 50 points or less, as opposed to 84, that is at least 34 fewer points off that average, as well as 12 competitive minutes in the first 3 quarters, that should negate significantly more points. I see this as a great opportunity on the UNDER. This is a real play and on the record: NBA All-STAR GAME UNDER 304.5 -105
|
02-16-20 |
Missouri State v. Indiana State OVER 134 |
Top |
71-58 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 142-89-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.A and total < 140 and p:CW and p:margin >= 20 and op:AL and op:margin
|
02-16-20 |
Duquesne v. Fordham UNDER 122.5 |
Top |
59-54 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
The Fordham Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the country shooting at just 38% for the season. That has been even worse in conference games where they are shooting a dreadful 36.6%. Their slowdown methodical pace has led to just 52.6ppg. This has been going on for awhile and at home the Rams are now 64-39-5 to the under in their last 108 on home hardwood. The 1st meeting this season saw just 114 total points scored, and not much has changed. Make the play on the under.
|
02-15-20 |
Colorado v. Oregon State UNDER 136 |
Top |
69-47 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
|
Colorado is coming into this game off a loss at Oregon, and will be hungry to overturn the bad feeling. that game played in the 120s and I would expect a similar path for this game. Colorado has an elongated track record of getting after it on the road on the defensive end where their last 104 road games have produced a 68-36 mark to the under (6-1 this year). That mark in conference games is 53-27 to the under. Oregon St. has gone 6 straight games without producing total points that would go over this total. Make the play on the under.
|
02-11-20 |
Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232 |
Top |
105-116 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
|
NBA VERY GOOD TEAMS = UNDER: Everyone likes to watch a game between a pair of very good teams. When it comes time for such a game in the NBA, the defense, which is often absent from most NBA games often takes center stage. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at how that plays out. There is a bias in such games in the NBA as we take a look at total results when both teams are .600 or better, with a home favorite: WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HFSU:1855-912 (5.37, 67.0%) ATS:1412-1299-56 (0.02, 52.1%) avg line: -5.3O/U:1265-1449-53 (-0.66, 46.6%) avg total: 197.5 We see the UNDER is a blind winner with a super sample size of over 2700 games. We also see that when these games feature a high total it gets stronger:
WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HF and total >= 222SU:109-55 (5.95, 66.5%) ATS:79-80-5 (-0.26, 49.7%) avg line: -6.2O/U:62-95-7 (-2.75, 39.5%) avg total: 227.6 This goes live tonight in Houston as the Celtics invade. Consider the UNDER in this contest.
|
02-08-20 |
Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 |
Top |
125-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
The scoring has steadily risen in the NBA over the past several years, and there are some tendencies developing because of it. It has also become a league of super teams, such as the Lakers and some really bad teams like Golden St. What has happened in these ultra elite teams vs poor teams is the scoring is held down.WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 33.3 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:41-5 (12.80, 89.1%) ATS:19-26-1 (-0.30, 42.2%) avg line: -13.1O/U:12-32-2 (-5.72, 27.3%) avg total: 222.7That also shows this subset when the bad team is even worse than bad: WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 25 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:18-2 (14.10, 90.0%) ATS:9-11-0 (0.90, 45.0%) avg line: -13.2O/U:1-18-1 (-12.20, 5.3%) avg total: 222.6 Make the play on the UNDER.
|
02-08-20 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
77-64 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
Tennessee is a tough place to play and this team has been impossible to score on at home where they have allowed 63.6ppg over their last 95 home games limiting opponents to 39% shooting. they have faced Kentucky here 5 times during this period and 4 of the 5 have played under the total as well. Kentucky has shot just 41% in these games and 28% from deep. These 95 games has seen Tennessee go 62-31-2 to the under. Male the play on the under.
|
02-07-20 |
Raptors v. Pacers OVER 218.5 |
Top |
115-106 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Toronto Raptors have won 12 straight games, the last coming from a 19 point deficit against this same Indiana team. It has been an offensive explosion as the Raptors have scored 120.6ppg in the streak. That has led to another streak, as they are 8-3-1 to the over as well. Indiana has been piling up the points as well, with 12 of their last 17 eclipsing the total. This game also plays into a situation that is 166-88 ATS to the over as well. Make the play on the over.
|
02-06-20 |
CS Sacramento v. Weber State UNDER 125 |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 34 m |
Show
|
Sacramento St. is 11-9 on the season, and this team has been taking the air out of the ball for quite some time. They allow just 55.9ppg on the road this season and overall they are now 52-23 to the under in their last 75 road games. Weber St. has a string basketball history but not this year as they are 8-14. Make the play on the under.
|
02-06-20 |
Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe OVER 138 |
Top |
67-65 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
Georgia Southern likes the uptempo and average 76.2ppg on the season. They played UL Monroe earlier in the season to their lowest scoring game where just 123 total points were scored. That has led to a total 5 points lower than that previous game, and I don't expect a repeat tonight. UL Monroe is a huge over team at home where the over is 39-12 in their last 51 at home. Make the play on the over.
|
02-06-20 |
Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 119.5 |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
This Florida Gulf Coast team at 7-17 is a far cry from Andy Enfield's Dunk City team that gave many fits in the NCAA Tournament several years ago. The team struggles for offense, but does one thing well and that is defend. Stetson ar 12-12 is cut from a similar cloth as they struggle offensively and defend well. Florida Gulf Coast is 36-13 to the under in its last 49 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
02-05-20 |
Cavs v. Thunder OVER 221 |
Top |
103-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Cleveland Cavs have dropped 11 straight games at home, and start to be on watch as the NBA record for the most consecutive home losses is 19. Defense has been just a rumor for this team as they have allowed more than 125ppg in their last 6 at home. Overall the Cavs are 18-3-1 ATS to the over in their last 22 contests. Oklahoma City is a food shooting team and an NBA team that shoots 46% or better on the season facing a team that allowed 55% or more in its last game are 522-437-12 to the OVER. (253-209-5 at home). Thunder piling up the points in their last 9 games as a home favorite at 8-1 to the over with an average totals score of 236.9. Make the play on the over.
|
02-02-20 |
49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
20-31 |
Win
|
100 |
32 h 48 m |
Show
|
DEEBO SAMUEL MVP +2500 (1/2 of 1 UNIT) >> >> I always shy away from the QB's in this game, as it is the logical choice and the value is usually not there. that typically means I am on a long shot. i don't just like to choose a long shot on a whim, but on value so I will make the case for Deebo Samuel of the 49ers here. First, the 49ers have barely passed the ball at all in the post-season so the value is enriched as Samuel will not be on most bettors radar. He is on mine. The Niners were not sure what they had in Samuel early in the season, and his use was limited. Through 9 weeks he had 22 receptions for just 227 yards, or just over 10 yards a catch. he had just 1 catch for 30+ yards, and scored 1 TD. He also had 5 rushing attempts for 37 yards. Then starting in week 10 the Niners started to realize he had something to add to their attack. from week 10 on he caught 35 passes for 575 yards, or 16.5 yds. per catch, a quantum leap. he had 4 catches for 30+ yards and added 3 TDs. Since week 13 the 49ers wanted him to get more touches and he ran the ball 9 times for 122 yards. he had 4 runs of 20+ yards, and 2 TDs. despite the 49ers pretty much running their way to the Super Bowl he caught more balls, for more yards than any other receiver. he also ran the ball 3 times for 49 yards. When I make an MVP choice, I like players that can impact a game multiple ways (running and receiving in this case). I think the 49ers have so much to look out for that Samuel could become an under the radar part of the game plan, as he has taken on an expanded role late in the season and has delivered. > ************************************************************************************************************************************************ > The rest of my Super Bowl props are all based on FGs. I have more detailed information on this than anyone would ever expect. It is because I had the foresight to track everything in this area for every Super Bowl, and the data I didn't have I added as I got older. These are some extremely powerful props based on FGs. I only consider the last 45 years. I have done so because the goal posts were moved in 1974 to the back of the end-zone which changed things. Here we go: > > UNDER 3.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 3.5 -120 > > The last 45 Super Bowls have topped 3,5 just 14 of 45 years (31.1%) Huge value > ************************************************************************************************************************************** > UNDER 4.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 4.5 -240 > > There have been 5 or more made FGs in just 3 of the last 45 Super Bowls (6.6%) EXTREME VALUE! > **************************************************************************************************************************************** > UNDER 5.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 5.5 -650 > > THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED 0-45! > **************************************************************************************************************************************** > LONGEST MADE FG 47.5 YARDS UNDER -130 > > There has been just 6 Super Bowls with a FG longer than 47 yards. HUGE VALUE! > ************************************************************************************************************************************** > TOTAL COMBINED MADE FG YARDS (Both teams) UNDER 122.5 -110 > > Only 12 of 45 Super Bowls have topped this number (26.6%) TREMENDOUS VALUE! > ************************************************************************************************************************************ > BOTH TEAMS WILL RECORD A MADE FG OF 33 OR MORE YARDS? NO -110 > This has occurred in just 14 of 45 Super Bowls (31.1%) HUGE VALUE > ********************************************************************************************************************************** IMPORTANT NOTE**********
When betting money line odds please remained disciplined! For example on the prop that is -650, that doesn't mean to bet -650 to win 100 (if your unit size is 100.00). It means bet 100 to win 15.38. Don't get greedy thinking these are guaranteed to win, they are not! What I can guarantee which you can see is these are heavyweight advantaged props, but it is still one game and anything can happen! Whatever your unit size, stick with betting 1 unit. betting is a continuous of scraping a few dollars here and there, and suddenly when you look down, those few dollars start to add up instead of disappearing. STAY DISCIPLINED PLEASE! ******************************************************************************
HIGHEST SCORING HALF: 2ND -155
There has been a long history of Super Bowl games starting slowly. It seems that each team takes a look at how they are being defended early in the game before they open things up. The total points scored in the 1st quarter of 53 Super Bowl games is just 439 total points. that has led to the 2nd half outscoring the first half 1263-1142. The last 21 Super Bowls has seen the 2nd half outscore the 1st half to a record of 16-4-1. Like the odds here. The 2nd half is 8-2-1 in this when the total has been 50+ and 18-6-1 if the total has been 47+. Make the play on the 2nd half being the higher scoring half. ********************************************************************************************************************************************* HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 21 -155
Overall there has been just 16 of 53 Super Bowls that saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter. That is just 30% if all games. The next thing to look at is the early years of the Super Bowl that had a lot of low scoring games, or at least by the posted totals the games were anticipated to be lower scoring. prior to Super Bowl 28 there was just 1 game with a posted total of 50+ so if we start from there and look at games from Super Bowl 28 forward we get a better idea on this. There have since been 10 Super Bowls with a posted total of 50+. just 2 of those saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter between both teams. make the play on the under. ********************************************************************************************************************************************* LOWEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 3.5 +140:
There has been 34 times out of the 53 Super Bowls that saw the lowest scoring combined score come in at 3 or fewer points or 64.2% of the time. It isn't just because the games were lower scoring in the early years, as one might expect. The fact is in the last 21 Super Bowls it has occurred 13 times or 62% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 times the total was 50+. Getting plus odds on this shows value. ***************************************************************************************************************************************** TEAM THAT SCORES LAST WINS THE GAME YES -240:
This is one of the best values of all. The Yes is 18-2 the last 20 years, 27-5 in the last 32 years and 33-7 the last 40 years. needless to say the odds makers swung and missed on this one. ************************************************************************************************************************************************
PLAY KC/SF UNDER 54.5 -110
Enjoy the game!
|
02-01-20 |
Samford v. Wofford OVER 147 |
Top |
56-80 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
Samford at 8-15 heads on the road where they have been mostly defenseless. They are 45-18 to the over in their last 63 on the highway. They are allowing 88ppg in their last 13 games overall and 93.1ppg in their last 7 on the road. Make the play on the over.
|
01-30-20 |
Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 135 |
Top |
68-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
Mick Cronin had a trademark at Cincinnati. His teams played hard physical and ugly games and were tenacious on the defensive end. While he hasn't had time yet to get his type of players into the program, he will have some help tonight. Colorado has gone a decade of playing the type of game Cronin loves, physical and ugly as the Buff's are 66-35 to the under over the last 10+ years on the road. (4-0 this year). This one looks ugly, make the play on the under.
|
01-30-20 |
North Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 144.5 |
Top |
68-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
I've not been a proponent of team trends over the years. The main reason is the team trends tend to mostly be based on small sample sizes. Essentially what I am saying is 12-1 ATS, or 16-2 ATS pretty much always turn out to be variance. While variance can be present with any sample size, it diminishes in probability with larger sample sizes. I've always tried to hold ground with a sample size of 100 or more games. That pretty much precludes most team trends. Today in the newsletter we will look toward a team trend that is under the radar for a couple or reasons. It is a team trend with a sample size of 162 games, and it is a small or obscure school on the NCAA Basketball landscape, so it does not draw any attention. North Dakota games have averaged about 150 points over the period and I think there is a small school bias and an up tempo style that allows for the value. Odds makers seem to be reserved in posting large totals for a team that should not score as consistently as this one does. here is a look:
NDAKOT is 96-64-2 OU (3.60 ppg) since Mar 04, 2014.SU:84-101 (0.32, 45.4%) ATS:80-80-6 (-0.05, 50.0%) avg line: 3.4O/U:96-64-2 (3.60, 60.0%) avg total: 147. They are 60% to the over in a 162 game period. They are 63-31-1 OVER to a total of 137.5 to 152.5.
Consider N. Dakota/Purdue Fort Wayne OVER the total tonight.
|
01-29-20 |
Evansville v. Illinois State UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
66-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
Illinois St. and Evansville have both struggled this season. The Purple Aces are just 9-12 on the season while Illinois St. is a woeful 6-14. these teams combined to bring back just 4 starters this season. These teams have combined to produce just 110.7ppg combined vs common opponents this year (6 games), which may be telling tonight. Evansville has played 6 straight to the under, while Illinois St. is 93-46 to the under in its last 139 games. Make the play on the UNDER.
|
01-25-20 |
Mavs v. Jazz OVER 224.5 |
Top |
107-112 |
Loss |
-114 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 401-280 ATS and the play is on the OVER.
|
01-25-20 |
LSU v. Texas OVER 140.5 |
Top |
69-67 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
LSU is 14-4 and they like to get the ball up and down the court as they are averaging 80.6ppg. This team has been doing this for a long time especially on the road where they are now 50-25-2 to the over in their last 77 games. (4-0 this year so dar). Make the play on the over.
|
01-24-20 |
Nuggets v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 |
Top |
113-106 |
Loss |
-102 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 401-279 ATS and the play is on the over.
|
01-23-20 |
Liberty v. North Florida UNDER 131 |
Top |
70-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
The basketball program at Liberty College has taken off, and still flying under the radar. The Flames are a remarkable 19-1 on the season and a win tonight would mean 4 straight 20 win seasons. They silently won 29 games last season. The Flames do it with the defense allowing just 36% shooting and a woeful 28% from deep. They also take the air out of the ball as their games average 102 shots per contest (similar to the old Princeton teams), but without the 110 or so totals those used to generate. Since the start of 2014 the Flames are 55-25-1 to the under in all games. The bloom has not come off the rose yet as they are 13-5 to the under this year. Consider Liberty vs N. Florida under the total tonight.
|
01-22-20 |
76ers v. Raptors OVER 215.5 |
Top |
95-107 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 164-84 ATS and the play is on the over.
|
01-22-20 |
Thunder v. Magic UNDER 210 |
Top |
120-114 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 275-176 ATS, and the play is on the under.
|
01-22-20 |
Samford v. Furman OVER 150.5 |
Top |
78-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
Samford has been a defensive liability on the road where they have allowed 80.8ppg in their last 62 games. This has led to an under the radar mark of 44-18 to the over in the 62 games, and 18-4 to the over in their last 22. Make the play on the over.
|
01-22-20 |
Western Carolina v. Mercer OVER 153 |
Top |
79-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
|
W. Carolina allows 82.2ppg on the road in their last 45 games leading to a 31-14 mark to the over. That has been 27-7 to the over with a posted total from greater than 137 and less than 168 covering the total by nearly 10 points per contest. Make the play on the over.
|
01-21-20 |
Ole Miss v. Tennessee UNDER 128 |
Top |
48-73 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Ole Miss has struggled as the schedule has become more difficult. They shot the ball very well against several cupcakes but as the schedule has increased in difficulty, they are 0-5 and as a team has shot as a team a woeful 37.3%. Tennessee lost a lot of firepower from last year's team, shooting just 40% at home, but the defense has been superb. The defense has always shown up at home, as the Vols are 60-31 to the under in its last 91 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
01-20-20 |
Thunder v. Rockets OVER 229 |
Top |
112-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER.
|
01-20-20 |
Raptors v. Hawks OVER 229.5 |
Top |
122-117 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 398-275 ATS, and the play is on the OVER.
|
01-19-20 |
Pacers v. Nuggets OVER 211.5 |
Top |
115-107 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is extremely strong and is 162-84 ATS. The play is on the under.
|
01-16-20 |
Magic v. Clippers UNDER 216 |
Top |
95-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
LA CLIPPERS/ORLANDO UNDER 215.5 -107 194-145 ATS SITUATION
|
01-16-20 |
CS-Northridge v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 142 |
Top |
80-68 |
Loss |
-116 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
CS NORTHRIDGE/UC IRVINE UNDER 141.5 -105 40-19-2 UNDER SITUATION
|
01-15-20 |
Cal-Irvine v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 133 |
Top |
74-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
UC Fullerton has been an under machine producing a 59-32-4 ATS mark to the under in its last 95 games, including 6-2 to the under vs UC Irvine, in games that have produced just an average of 128 total points. All 3 meetings at home have played low and 3- to the under producing just 113.3ppg. Make the play on the under.
|
01-15-20 |
Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech UNDER 134.5 |
Top |
78-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech has been a defensive demon at home, and when you put that together with the limited offense the result has been 92-47-1 ATS to the under in their last 140 home games. Make the play on the under.
|
01-15-20 |
Samford v. East Tennessee State OVER 141.5 |
Top |
63-88 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 37 m |
Show
|
E. Tennessee St. is off to a 15-3 start to the season. They have shot the ball poorly in recent games, but against a defenseless Samford team, they will be looking to tick up the tempo and should have a breakout offensive game. Samford has allowed 88ppg in its last 9 and Chatanooga just struck for 105 against them. The last 5 road games have seen Samford yield 92.6ppg and the Bulldogs are notorious for road games playing over the total as they are 43-18 to the over in their last 61 roadies. Make the play on the over.
|
01-14-20 |
Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 241 |
Top |
110-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
HOUSTON VS MEMPHIS UNDER 240.5 -105 This game fits a total situation that is 185-111-4 ATS to the under.
|
01-14-20 |
Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
75-62 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
The B-10 Conference has long been known for its physical play. the question is if there is a way to cash in on that? Today in the newsletter we will take a look at the rugged B-10 Conference and key in on the home dogs and see what we find. We can start by looking at all B-10 home dogs:
conference = B10 and HDSU:184-345 (-4.78, 34.8%) ATS:270-249-10 (0.54, 52.0%) avg line: 5.3O/U:249-272-3 (0.55, 47.8%) avg total: 133.4 There is a 52.2% starting point which is a good springboard to dig deeper. If we only look at games with a medium to high total from 141 and up we get:
conference = B10 and total > 140.5 and HDSU:33-72 (-4.78, 31.4%) ATS:57-45-3 (1.12, 55.9%) avg line: 5.9O/U:41-63-1 (-0.84, 39.4%) We now see 60.6% of these games play to the under. If we avoid uncompetitive games and cap the line at fewer than +12 points we get:
conference = B10 and total > 140.5 and HD and line < 12SU:33-63 (-3.77, 34.4%) ATS:51-42-3 (1.12, 54.8%) avg line: 4.9O/U:34-61-1 (-1.76, 35.8%) That is 64.2% to the under. Tonight consider Iowa/Northwestern UNDER the total.
|
01-12-20 |
Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
31-51 |
Loss |
-115 |
52 h 30 m |
Show
|
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in the AFC divisional round. this team has undertaken many transformations since the start of the 2018 season. Let's break this team down to 2019, the first 10 games of 2019, and the final 6 games of 2019 and you will see the transformation: 2019 avg, points scored 34.8 avg points allowed 2019 26.22018 1st 10 28.4 23.92018 last 6 27.8 11.5*******************************************************************************************************************The Chiefs score 7 points fewer than last season overall but look at the quantum leap in defense. They have shaved 14.7ppg off of last season and in their last 6 games this year, and 12.4ppg since where they were through 10 games. Andy Reid, given time to prepare and in the right spot has the following: coach=Andy Reid and rest in [12,13] and season>1999 and line>-14 and o:WP
|
01-11-20 |
The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 152 |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
Wofford lives to turn games into track meets especially at home where they are averaging 89ppg and shooting a sizzling 53% from the field. the Citadel will be obliging as they are averaging 83.6ppg. Wofford has seen their last 128 home games play 84-42-2 to the over. make the play on the over.
|
01-11-20 |
Jacksonville v. Liberty UNDER 115 |
Top |
37-54 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 45 m |
Show
|
Jacksonville has a tough as they head to Liberty to take on the upstart 17-1 Flames. Liberty has been the surprise of the season so far, and the Flames are dominating defensively on their home floor, which has been going on for quite some time. Flames allowing a stingy 32% shooting at home, and 23% from deep. Slow pace, the great defense has led Liberty to a 54-24 mark to the under at home in its last 78. Make the play on the under.
|
01-11-20 |
South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 132 |
Top |
55-56 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
Tennessee and South Carolina saw a lot of roster turnover from last year. each team returned just 1 starter from 2018. The offense has been slow and methodical for both teams, and Tennessee is shooting just 43% on the season. the good news is the defense which has always been elite, especially at home is allowing just 37.8% shooting on home hardwood. SC is also shooting just 43% and allows 39%, so there will be some scoring droughts in this contest. Tennessee's defense continues to dominate home games as the Bols are now 60-30-2 to the under in their last 92 at Rocky Top. make the play on the under.
|
01-10-20 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 231 |
Top |
121-134 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
This game fits a very active and long-term total situation that is 391-274 ATS. The play is on the OVER.
|
01-09-20 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia Southern UNDER 140 |
Top |
56-67 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
UL Monroe has been a cash cow to the under on the road where they are 62-100-3 O/U in their last 165 games. (1-4 O/U so far this year). team = ULMON and A and date >= 20071229SU:41-146 (-9.71, 21.9%) ATS:93-82-3 (0.15, 53.1%) avg line: 10.3O/U:62-100-3 (-2.96, 38.3%) avg total: 135.6 Make the play on the under.
|
01-08-20 |
Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
73-64 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
Georgia Tech is the biggest under team at home in NCAAB. They are 92-47-1 to the under in their last 140 games at home. Make the play on the under.
|
01-08-20 |
Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
112-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 36 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
01-08-20 |
Heat v. Pacers UNDER 211 |
Top |
122-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 35 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 312-168 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
01-06-20 |
Bucks v. Spurs OVER 229 |
Top |
104-126 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over.
|
01-06-20 |
Pacers v. Hornets OVER 208 |
Top |
115-104 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 386-272-21 ATS and the play is on the over.
|
01-04-20 |
Spurs v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
118-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 58 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 190-143 ATS. Make the play on the under.
|
01-04-20 |
Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
30-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over.
|
01-02-20 |
Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 225.5 |
Top |
123-128 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 89-44-6 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
01-01-20 |
Baylor v. Georgia UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
14-26 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 38 m |
Show
|
This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under.
|
12-30-19 |
Suns v. Blazers UNDER 231 |
Top |
122-116 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-30-19 |
Heat v. Wizards UNDER 228 |
Top |
105-123 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 23 m |
Show
|
This game gits a total situation that is 190-141 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-27-19 |
76ers v. Magic UNDER 210 |
Top |
97-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 265-158 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-23-19 |
Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 60.5 |
Top |
25-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 47 m |
Show
|
High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games: game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line
|
12-22-19 |
Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 209 |
Top |
128-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under.
|
12-22-19 |
Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
93-119 |
Loss |
-101 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 304-164-10 ATS.Make the play on the under.
|
12-22-19 |
Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 46 |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 46 m |
Show
|
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under.
|
12-22-19 |
Lions v. Broncos UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
17-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 46 m |
Show
|
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under.
|
12-22-19 |
Giants v. Redskins UNDER 42 |
Top |
41-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
50 h 42 m |
Show
|
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under.
|
12-21-19 |
SMU v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 71 |
Top |
28-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
51 h 11 m |
Show
|
Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under.
|
12-20-19 |
Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
107-114 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a tital situatyion that is 98-55-7 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-20-19 |
Buffalo v. Charlotte UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
31-9 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 20 m |
Show
|
The Bahamas Bowl will see the winner collecting its 1st Bowl win in school history as Buffalo will take on Charlotte. perhaps the bigger story in this game is going to be the weather. The game time wind profile shows 30 MPH winds with husts to 45 MPH. This is going to for the most part negate the kicking and passing games. Buffalo runs the ball 50+ times a game, but without the threat of the pass Charlotte will stack the box and make it tougher to run. Charlotte prefers to throw the ball, but will be limited and Buffalo has been tough against the run. Biffalo comes in having played 5 straight to the over, but a Bowl team that enters their Bowl game off 3+ overs are 65-39-1 ATS to the under including 59-29-1 to the under if the total is fewer than 66 points. (37-13 as a favorite). Make the play on the under.
|
12-18-19 |
Grizzlies v. Thunder UNDER 219 |
Top |
122-126 |
Loss |
-104 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 189-139 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-17-19 |
Magic v. Jazz UNDER 207 |
Top |
102-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
This game fits one of my strongest total situations which is 412-248 ATS. The play is on the under.
|
12-16-19 |
Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 |
Top |
107-109 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 188-139 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-15-19 |
Lakers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 |
Top |
101-96 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 187-139 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-15-19 |
Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 211 |
Top |
85-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 412-249 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-15-19 |
Jaguars v. Raiders UNDER 47 |
Top |
20-16 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 26 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that os 27-3 ATS: H and po:points > 34 and ppo:points > 34 and tS(o:points,N=2) > 80 and 49 > total > 35 SU:13-18-0 (-2.84, 41.9%)Teaser Records ATS:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%) avg line: 0.5+6: 20-11-0 (64.5%) -6: 7-22-2 (24.1%) +10: 27-4-0 (87.1%) -10: 1-28-2 (3.4%) O/U:3-27-1 (-8.94, 10.0%) Make the play on the under.
|
12-15-19 |
Browns v. Cardinals OVER 49 |
Top |
24-38 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 20 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
12-13-19 |
Knicks v. Kings UNDER 210 |
Top |
103-101 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
This game fits one of my top total situations which is now 303-161 ATS. Make the play on the under.
|
12-11-19 |
Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
117-122 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 46 m |
Show
|
This game fits a vert strong 410-247 ATS situation. The play is on the under.
|
12-10-19 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
92-97 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 76-44 ATS to the under: total > 199.5 and p:AFL and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50 and A and line >= 3SU:36-87 (-5.85, 29.3%) ATS:62-60-1 (0.95, 50.8%) avg line: 6.8O/U:44-76-3 (-2.47, 36.7%) avg total: 210.8 Make the play on the under.
|
12-09-19 |
Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 219 |
Top |
110-102 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 185-139. Make the play on the under.
|
12-09-19 |
Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 211 |
Top |
104-90 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 115-79. Make the play on the under.
|
12-08-19 |
Kings v. Mavs OVER 216.5 |
Top |
110-106 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 302-161 ATS to the over. Make the play on the OVER.
|
12-08-19 |
Nuggets v. Nets UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
102-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
This game fits a situation that is 409-247 ATS to the under. Make the play on the UNDER.
|
12-07-19 |
Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
104-103 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
This game fits one of my top total situations that is 260-154 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.
|
12-06-19 |
Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 233 |
Top |
91-119 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
When a pair of elite teams get together (both have a season scoring margin of 7 or more) and the total is set at more than 200, defense shows up. These games have seen the under go 494-371 ATS. Make the play on the under.
|
12-01-19 |
Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-105 |
102 h 39 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 153-89-8 ATS. Make the play on the under.
|
12-01-19 |
Eagles v. Dolphins UNDER 45 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-109 |
98 h 17 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 46-6 ATS. The play is on the under. season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total
|
11-29-19 |
76ers v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
101-95 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 295-158 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
11-29-19 |
Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 213.5 |
Top |
110-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 64-36 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
11-29-19 |
Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207.5 |
Top |
90-83 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 28 m |
Show
|
This game fits a total situation that is 295-158 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
11-27-19 |
Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 210.5 |
Top |
98-126 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 294-156 ATS and the play is on the under.
|
11-27-19 |
Kings v. 76ers UNDER 211 |
Top |
91-97 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 43 m |
Show
|
This game fits a totals situation that is 294-156 ATS and the play is on the under.
|