The Minnesota Golden Gophers have really fallen on hard times in the Big-10. They have been bottom feeding for 2 years now, and it is easy to see why. They have allowed 21 points or more in their 15 Big-10 tilts the last 2 years, and an average of 35.7ppg. That certainly makes a low total atrractive in this one. Illinois has scored just 11.8ppg in their last 5look to be offensively challenged here, but a closer look at those 5 games is very revealing. They have faced the following 5 defensive ranks: 6,14,8,17,and 70 or an average defensie ank of #23 or in the 18th percentile on average of all teams. Their previous 6 games saw them average 34.7ppg, so it is very reasonable to see this team get that 35 point average vs a team that has allowed on average 36ppg in their last 15 Big-10 contests. The Gophers have scored 13 or more in every Big-10 game this season, so very resonable to expect that here. That combination projects 48-50 points here in this one, and the Illini have poured it on as a 10.5 point favorite or more in their last 10 going over to a 7-2-1 mark and this year averaging 38.3ppg in this situation. Gopghers coughing up the points at an alarming rate as a home dog, leading to a 19-6-1 mark to the over in their last 26 as home pups. This one goes over the total.

The San Francisco 49ers are the surorise team in the NFL this season at 9-1. These are two defense first teams and the Ravens are good at stopping mediocre offenses, and as steady as Alex Smith has been, when he has faced top pass defenses this year he is very pedestrian. he passed against 3 such defenses this season and managed just 446 passing yards combined in the 3 games. He will see a 4th tonight in Baltimore, and I expect the Niner offense to struggle. The ravens have had their own prolems vs good defenses, and a few weeks back needed 2.5 quarters to generate a 1st down against a very good Jacksonville defense. Thursday NFL games with a home favorite have been 25-42 to the over, so the under certainly has historic support as well. Those numbers move to 14-27 over if the line is -4 or less. I'll play this one under the total.

The Texas Longhorns offense leaves a little to be desired. To top that off they are playing short of running backs due to injuries, and their top wide reciever is ailing as well. Texas A&M is 6-5 but when you look at the schedule and how competitive they have been against very good 2-way teams that play defense and offense, they are a clearcut favorite here especially at home. They have a defese every bit the equsl to Texas so I expect the points to be at a premium here. They have managed just 18 total points the last 2 weeks. I don't see either team making it to 30 points here, and with a total in the mid 50s the call here is on the under.

Last year the Miami,O. red Hawks won 10 games off a 1 win campaign 2 years ago. This team has slipped back once again, and after losing last week, they are not going to a Bowl this year, and a lot of times team's letdown in this situation, which usually means a lack of focus on the defensive side of things. The offense has picked it up in the last 5 games averaging just shy of 30ppg. Ohio, U. sits atop the MAC at 8-3 and destined for a playoff for the title vs either N. Illinois or Toledo. The Bobcats have also found their offense averaging 36ppg over their last 4. The total here is set on the low side considering each of these teams is plenty capeable of 30+ in this contest, and I'm playing this one over the total.

I'm running late OVER is the play

I'm running late OVER is the play

I'm running late OVER is the play

***CORRECTION*** My writeup was correct that we are taking the Over in this game. I unintentionally selected the Under in the first e-mail sent out.

Ohio, U. has gone for over 30 points in 7 of their 10 games on the season, and scored an impressive 35 againsdt a very good Temple defense. Tyler tettleton is having a big year with 22 TD's to just 6 INT's, and the Bobcats can score quickly. Good passing offenses have done in Bowling Green allowing 45 to W. Michigan, 55 to W. Virginia and 45 to N. Illinois. falcons uuting up 26.6ppg at home will be enough to swend this one over the total

The Duke Blue devils had everything they could handle from a very solid Belmont team at home, escaping with a 1 point win. Michigan St. was handled easily out on the West Coast in the inaugrial Carrier Classic. It is a big game for Duke as Coach K tries to become the winningest of all time. look for a lot of the usual defensive intensity and Coach Izzo's team's are well noted for how they defend, and held NC to 67 in the opener. This one is posted to high, and I'm backing the under in this game.

No time for a writeup under is the play

142-94-7 ATS total system, OVER is the play

Due to the fact I'm moving no writeup for this one but the play is on the OVER

Weather play heavy snow with whiteout conditions

This is a system play that has generated over 70% winners and the play is on the over

The MLB playoffs over the last 8 years has seen a total of 10 or higher following a game that went over the total go 16-4-2 to the under. A game following a combined score of 12 runs or more has seen the under go 3-0 in the next game. Oddsmakers really hedging the public here in this one with an inflated number, UNDER is the play.

Tonight is GAME 3 of the World Series, I have won each of the first 2 games. I am posting my pick for game 3 for FREE in the newsletter so don't buy my MLB pick for game 3.



Looking in an area you won't find anyone else doing here, or if you do, it would be a shocker. I often times look at what the oddsmakers thoughts are when they assign a total to an MLB game. Game one saw the total at 7.5, it was moved up to 8 last night, and despite the fact that these teams have combined to score 8 runs in 2 games, the total nw exceeds that production by 1.5 runs all in one game. Ok, the venue changes so the park is more hitter froendly, but history shows that doesn't make as much difference as the oddsmnakers have moved this one, nor do the pitchers.



Looking at playoff games the last 8 years whenever total is bumped by more than 1 run from the previous game, the under strikes at 18-8 or 69% of the time.here we have exactly that a toal of 8 in game 2, bumped to 9.5 in game 3. Guess what? if their is a venue change (switching of parks), the odds are even better for an under at 71%!



GAME 3 UNDER 9.5

league Chamopionship Series games with a total of 9-9.5 go under at the rate of 65% since 1997. Under gets the call.

Major League baseball is a moneyline sport, not to be measured in winning percentage, but units won. I have devised a system that over the last 7 years has won a huge amount of money. There will probably be about 200 or so plays the entire season. I'm looking for this sytem to produce winners for the 8th consecutive year. get ready to win big in MLB with this proven system of winners. The play in this game is on the UNDER

Cluster wager on the under

There is an early illusion painted in this game, as Tennessee has played better than the teams they have faced, and could easily be 2-0 on the season, while Denver has been outplayed in a pair of games. What is notable is that Denver played with out 2 of their best defenders last week and Elvis Dumervil, and Champ bailey might both play this week. denver has been better on defense than a year ago, whike tennessee has been very good defensively. This game fits into a huge situation that says under, and that is my call.

Cluster system play on the under

Cluster wager on the under

MREAST cluster wager #4 on the under

MREAST cluster #5 on the under

The Cincinnati Bearcats had an easy game last week as they crushed hapless Akron 59-14. That brings them into this one well rested against NC State who has struggled against some marginal competition. The Wolf Pack is 0-3 ATS in their first 3 games. QB Russell Wilson has been released from his scholarship, and the Wolfpack has not had a 1000 yard rusher since 2001! Cincinnati should be in the thick of things in the Big east, as despite last year's 2-5 mark, they actually outgained their Big East opponents by over 35 yards a game. Zack Callaros is back to run the offense and the defense has 10 starters returning, facing a new QB on the road for NC State. Cincinnati is a tough place to play, especially for teams that haven't played here as they are 22-1 straight up in their last 23 non-conference home games. Last year these teams both had better offenses and they played to just 49 points at NC State. I also have a situation that is 84-40-4 to the under live for this game. I like this one under the total.

The St. Louis Rams won all of 6 games from 2008-10 and lasy year topped that combined 3 season mark with 7 wins. This is a team that was outscored in the 2009-10 season by 26 total points, and they shaved that to 39 last year. They averaged 8ppg more last year, and should eclipse that mark this season. The Giants averaged 24,6ppg a year ago whilke the defense, once the backbone of the team has allowed 24ppg oer their last 9 regular season games, and opened the season allowing 28 to Washington, a team that scored 21 against them in 2 games a year ago. This game fits a situation that has produced an 82-42 mark to the over, and I'm playing this one over the total.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

I have a week 2 under system that is live in this game. Unders are more prone than ever in week 2, simply because players last week had more contact than they have had in almost a year. It tends to leave them bumped, stiff, and bruised from week 1, as their bodies begin to get accustomed to the contact. This works well when you have an anticipated defensive game, with a relatively low total. It has been 89-48 to the under the last 20 years in the NFL, and under is the play in this one.

MREAST NCAAF TOTAL DOMINATOR 89-48 ATS and the play here is on the under.

MREAST NCAAF TOTAL DOMINATOR 89-48 ATS and is calling for the UNDER in this game.

The Boston Red Sox are slumping, and injured, and falling fast. One shinning light on the mound has been Josh Beckett. beckett has been in control in almost all his starts on the season. there have been 4 games that beckett gave up a total of 18 runs in 24 innings where he pitched to a 6.75 ERA. The rest of the season he has allowed 27 runs in 144.2 innings of work pitching to a 1.68 ERA. That represents his body of work in 23 of his 27 starts or 85.2% of the time. When beckett has left those 23 games, the Sox bullpen, strong in the back end has allowed 20 runs in the 23 innings Beckett didn't complete, or 0.869 runs per game. That is a combined runs against of 2.55 a game 85%+ of the time Beckett takes the mound. beckett has also allowed 1 run to the rays in his last 29 innings.

James Shields has had a similar year. he has made 6 bad starts where he has allowed 39 runs in 34.1 innings pitching to a 10.22 ERA. he has allowed just 29 runs in the other starts covering 192 innings of work, pitching to a 1.36 ERA. So Shields has pitched to a 1,36 ERA in 24 of 30 starts or 80% of the time. The Ray's pen in the 24 starts has allowed 15 runs in the 24 innings Shields did not complkete, or 0.625 a game. That means in 24 of Shield's 30 starts the total average runs scored againbst him and the pen is 1.985. Combine the numbers and you get 1,99 Allowed by Tampa and 2.55 alowed by Boston, or a total of 4.54 runs scored in this game, with 23 of 27 beckett starts vs 2 of 30 Shield's starts, or 47 of 57 all together or 82.5% of all games show the potential of 4.54 runs being scored.

When Shields pitches in rotation on regular 4 days rest Tampa is 20-7 to the under in his last 27 starts. Shields has pitched 13 times vs Boston, with 9 of the 13 playing under.

When beckett starts for Boston the Red Sox are 20-7-1 in his last 28 starts overall. beckett has pitched 13 times vs Tampa and 9 of the 13 have played under the total.

There is a lot of wiggle room here, and my play is on the UNDER, MY MLB TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

Sometimes it is easy to watch the New England Patriots rack up the points and see this one as a shootout. I see it differently. The Dolphins have problems on offense but can play defense, especially at home. The last 2 years just one of the 4 games played between these clubs has made it over this total. looking back since 2003-04 covering 8 seasons, not aingle Dopphin season opener has topped this total. This is another situation where the 114-62 system on the under applies. Under is my call.

Late system addition, Play the under

late system play addition no wrieup. Play the under

I have uncovered a situation that has never lost in the NFLX, as far back as my data goes. This week presents a great opportunity as I go with a very strong situational play.

I have uncovered a situation that has never lost in the NFLX, as far back as my data goes. This week presents a great opportunity as I go with a very strong situational play.

The Indianapolis Colts have a Hall of Fame QB in Peyton Manning but he is aging, and off surgery, and in game 1 I would exoect the Colts to be less proficient on the offensive end, especially on the road. manning may not play at all, and did not take a snap in the pre-season. Colts have played 5 of their last 6 openers to the under. This is another game that fits a 114-62 situation to the under, and I'm calling for this one to stay under the total.

This is a late system play addition, under is the play

late edition system play, on the under

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This sytem is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

I do a lot of datamining with a detailed and extensive dataase. I look for large situations that have held tried and true for decades, not just situations on a good run. By doing this it insures the integrity of the situation, as in this case, it has worked for an extensive period of time. The results are incredibly good. This system is a powerful 84-40-6 ATS which is a phenominal winning rate of 67.7%. The play in this one is on the under in this game.

The Green Bay packers look to be loaded again this year, with additional weapons in jermichael Finley, and Ryan Grant, both key offensive components missing from a year ago. lost in the Superbowl glee, is the fact the Packers offense was held to 22ppg over their last 6 regular season games, and scored 20 or less in 7 games. What also should be known is the Packers held opponents to 20 or less in 12 games, and the defense is better than the offense. The Saints offense which can be explosive was held to 20 or less 7 times last year. saints also 17-7 to the under as a dog from 3.5-10 last 24, while the Pack is on a 6-1 under run in week 1. I also have a huge situation on the under which has been 114-62. This one stays under the total.

The NFL exhibition season is shunned by some, and savored by others. I am one that savors the opportunity these games present, as there are some long term things that happen during the NFLX that lead to predictability and profits. There are a lot of forces at work here from quarterback rotations, playing time of starters, coaches philosophies, new coaches, and several other leading indicators that have served me well over the years. I will not be making specific writeups as these games don't have a lot of fundamental handicapping associated with them, they are typically under the realm of situational handicapping, an art I have mastered over the years. The play here is on the OVER

The NFL exhibition season is shunned by some, and savored by others. I am one that savors the opportunity these games present, as there are some long term things that happen during the NFLX that lead to predictability and profits. There are a lot of forces at work here from quarterback rotations, playing time of starters, coaches philosophies, new coaches, and several other leading indicators that have served me well over the years. I will not be making specific writeups as these games don't have a lot of fundamental handicapping associated with them, they are typically under the realm of situational handicapping, an art I have mastered over the years. The play here is on the OVER

The NFL exhibition season is shunned by some, and savored by others. I am one that savors the opportunity these games present, as there are some long term things that happen during the NFLX that lead to predictability and profits. There are a lot of forces at work here from quarterback rotations, playing time of starters, coaches philosophies, new coaches, and several other leading indicators that have served me well over the years. I will not be making specific writeups as these games don't have a lot of fundamental handicapping associated with them, they are typically under the realm of situational handicapping, an art I have mastered over the years. The play here is on the OVER

The NFL exhibition season is shunned by some, and savored by others. I am one that savors the opportunity these games present, as there are some long term things that happen during the NFLX that lead to predictability and profits. There are a lot of forces at work here from quarterback rotations, playing time of starters, coaches philosophies, new coaches, and several other leading indicators that have served me well over the years. I will not be making specific writeups as these games don't have a lot of fundamental handicapping associated with them, they are typically under the realm of situational handicapping, an art I have mastered over the years. The play here is on the OVER

Major League baseball is a moneyline sport, not to be measured in winning percentage, but units won. I have devised a system that over the last 7 years has won a huge amount of money. There will probably be about 200 or so plays the entire season. I'm looking for this sytem to produce winners for the 8th consecutive year. get ready to win big in MLB with this proven system of winners. The play in this game is on the under

Major League baseball is a moneyline sport, not to be measured in winning percentage, but units won. I have devised a system that over the last 7 years has won a huge amount of money. There will probably be about 200 or so plays the entire season. I'm looking for this sytem to produce winners for the 8th consecutive year. get ready to win big in MLB with this proven system of winners. The play in this game is on the under

Major League baseball is a moneyline sport, not to be measured in winning percentage, but units won. I have devised a system that over the last 7 years has won a huge amount of money. There will probably be about 200 or so plays the entire season. I'm looking for this sytem to produce winners for the 8th consecutive year. get ready to win big in MLB with this proven system of winners. The play in this game is on the under

The Dallas Mavericks after falling behind in the series 2 games to one, came roaring back with 2 wins in Dallas, and now head to Miami for what could be a decisive game 6. The heat have really done a great job on LeBron James, and Miami has played great defense, despite the hiccup in game 5 where both teams just had one of those games where everything was falling. Tonight I expect the defensive pressure to return to what we saw in games 1-4. Active here for this game is an under situation that is now 21-2 ATS in the finals since 1990, with one of the losses because of overtime! I'm playing the under in this one.

Sometimes you can go to a well once to often, but there are ways of discovering if this is the case or not. I have been playing an under system for the NBA Playoff Championship round that is now 42-8 ATS, and once again is live for game 5. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment, but it isn't enough. I went back and looked at the 42-8 mark, and when oddsmakers adjusted the total down from the previous game total, it was adjusted down by an average of 1.73 points per game, and yet the record stands at 26-6 in those games. Actually one of the losses was in OT where in regulation it would have been a win, so 27-5 in regulation minutes. The bottomline is this is still valid, predictive, and profitable, and the call in game 5 is under.

The Dallas Mavericks lost a tough one at home in game 3, to fall down in their series vs the heat 2 games to 1. The resolve here will be defense. The Heat opened up game 3 with a 29 point first quarter, but managed just 59 points the rest of the way. They won the battle of the boards, and won the bench scoring, but their first quarter defensive lapses proved decisive. I look for Dallas to shut off the lanes to the paint as they did as the game went on in game 3, and keep the Heat from having a big quarter again. if you remember the Heat had 28 in the first period of game 2 as well. This game fits into one of my top playoff situations, which has now gone 39-8 ATS since 1990, and it calls for a play on the under.

The Dallas Mavericks came out of nowhere looking down the barrel of a 15 point deficit with under 6 minutes to play in game 2, facing a pending 0-2 series disadvantage, when they tightened up the defense, gave the ball to Nowitski down the stretch, scoring the last 9 and winning to even the series at 1 game apiece. They now come home for a pivital game 3. Dallas played defense like a playoff Champion down the stretch, and although Miami fell apart in the last 6 minutes, it was more of a letdown thinking they had the game won, than poor defense, they have proven they can defend with anyone. This game is likely to be defended from start to finish, and I have a situation pointing to the under that is 38-8 ATS since 1990. I'm playing the under in this one.

Looking at these teams it is easy to get romanced into offense, with the trio of stars and scorers on Miami, and the way Nowitski is playing like a man possessed. The public is in love with the over here, yet the total is moving in exactly the opposite direction, raising an immediate red flag. I have discovered a total situation that applies to this game that is markedly pointing to the under as it is 34-8 to the under, for 81% winners since 1990 in the Championship round. I'm playing this one to go under the total.

The Oklahoma City Thunder defined game 3 in 132 minutes. They could do nothing right and found themselves in a 27-12 hole, that to their credit, they almost climbed out of but against a very good Dallas team, it simply wasn't going to happen. Despite 36.5% shooting they crept back in the game. They hit just a putrid 5.9% from 3 point range, on 1-17. Dallas shot just 43.9% for the game and Dirk Nowitski finished with just 18 points. If the Thunder shoots 45% in this game, they make 6 more FG's and if they hit just 5-17 from 3, still below expectations, they are in the 100s in this game. Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the over with a total less than 200 off a loss. That moves to 6-0 to the over vs a team over ,500. The Mavs are 8-3-1 to the over in their last 12 as a road dog. Over is the play.

The Miami Heat held the Chicago Bulls to just 75 points on their own floor in game 2, to even the series at 1 game apiece. While the defenseive effort was huge, the Heat and their trio of stars was equally disappointing on the offensive end, where they scored 85, just 3 points better than their game 1 output. Sometimes you have to take note of the pcae, and trends of a series, that takes on a certain look, and this one has the look going forward of ugly, and competitive, despite the first 2 games resulting in double-digit finals. Game 3 becomes a pivital game, especially with the series even. The public can't help themselves, they see a low total, and say no way that game is not going over, and 65% have placed their money on the over here. Playoff totals of <180 following a game where 161 or less points were scored in the previous game, have gone 18-9 to the under. If the playoffs are past round one, meaning round 2 or deeper, the under becomes even more likely at 15-6. If the playoffs are even deeper, and we are in round 3 or further, the odds of an under grow, as it has been 10-1-1 to the under. I'll back the under in this one.

The Oklahoma City Thunder road a 56% shooting night in game 2 to even their series with Dallas. This has been a highly offensive series, with a lot of things happening, that has the over looking mighty tasty to gamblers. There are 70% off all total bets on the over, and I'm in the other camp. These teams have combined to shoot about 50% from the field, which isn't likely to continue for the balance of this series. There was 71 made free throws in game 1, of which Dirk Nowitski set a playoff record by going 24-24. Simply put the numbers are no longer sustainable, and at the same time, a fair line on this series opener was 194. My calculations for this game is 196.5, which is 4 full points away from where the oddsmakers have set this total, and that is with huge anticipation of knowing their clients love overs, and are going to bet this up. I would not be at all surprised that this total sees a dip when smart money hits the table, and perhaps the public will bet it back up, but the 201 where it stands now has line value. Situationally there is support by the fact that game 3 after the first 2 went over the total, has played under in the NBA playoffs to a winning percentage of 65.7%, in part because of the adjustments needed by the oddsmakers knowledge that the public is over happy. It is easier to move the public up, than down, and as an example of exactly that, if the first 2 games in a series go under the 3rd is 50-50 to go under. The oddsmakers don't have to create an unfair line on an under, there will always be plenty of over action. I have a myriad of under situations in this game, one of which is 81-46 to the under, and many more. My choice here is under the total.

The Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder put on an offensive clinic in game 1. They didn't have numbers like you'd normally see in a game that featured 233 points scored, as Oklahoma City shot 47% and Dallas 53%. The sign of things to come were the 79 free throws taken. It basically showed that these teams could not guard each other. Game 2 has a lot of over trends as it is with a 38-21-1 mark to the over from round 2 and beyond. There are a pair of situations that are highly predictive, and both perfect that apply to this game, and combined these 2 powerhouses are 30-0 ATS to the OVER! That is right, 30-0 ATS to the over! One is 20-0 and the other is 10-0 and they are both completely different. This is a very high rated game from the huge situational angles as well as the fundamental capping that supports it. The OVER is my Western Conference Finals Total of the Year! One further note: I have never lost an NBA GOY pick!

The Miami Heat dropped game 1 to the Bulls, and they weren't even close. Coach Spoelstra during a timeout was heard imploring his players, "We have to run our offense and move the ball around, isolation will not work against this team." How true that is. Look for Miami to start moving a lot on offense and get better looks in this game. Game 2 totals certainly support that logic, as they are 46-24 ATS if the total is set in the 180s. The Bulls have accomodated that thinking as well, as they are 27-13 to the over in their last 40 vs a winning team, and 11-3 to the over vs a team winning 70% plus of their games. Miami has had 15 opportunities on the road this year, playing with revenge, and are 12-3 to the over in those 15 games. Bulls after a big double-digit win are now 44-25 to the over the last 3 years, and that mark moves to 11-3 to the over if they are off of 2 straight 10+ wins. Since Spoelstra has become coach of the Heat thay have played 40-22 to the over off a loss, as well as 27-9 to the over following a game where they scored 85 or less, and 31-15 to the over after a 10+ point loss. I'm going with the over in this one.

The Dallas Mavericks have had an 8 day layoff as they open the Conference Championship round against Oklahoma City who was stretched to 3 games vs the Memphis Grizzlies. Dallas won 2 of the 3 games between these clubs this season, the lone loss came when Dirk Nowitski was a spectator, missing the game with a knee injury. These teams averaged 201.3ppg in their 3 games, so the total here in the public eye is set way to low. The public has weighed in heavy supporting the over like they already know the final score at close to 70%. That has driven the total up from the opener of 192 to 193 as of this writing, and I would not be surprised to see 194+ at tip. Teams playing off elongated rest in the NBA playoffs of 4 days or more, have played under the total to a 37-19 mark. When there is a game in the playoffs when 1 team has had 3 or more days rest than their opponent, the under is 19-9 in the playoffs. That makes a double rest situation of a combined 56-28 to the under, or 67% of the time. Round 2 and on has also seen matchups of good but not great teams (60-75% winning percentage), tip the scales to the under at a 22-14 clip. It is also worth noting that teams off of 4 or more ATS wins (Dallas) are 7-1 to the under in that same situation. One more predictive situation is when you have 1 team off a 15+ point win and the other off a 20+ point win the under has prevailed to an 8-2 mark. I'm playing the under in this one.

I am adding this play based on the fact that these teams are both better on the fefensive end of the court than the offensive end. It also has situational support as round 3 series game 1 has seen 10 games posted with a total lower than 182, and the results are 10-0 to the under! Under is the play!

The last 7 games in this series between Oklahoma City and Memphis have all featured both teams scoring over 100 points. The public looks at the results of the first 2 games, both going way over the total, and lcks in at 65% playing the over. This ignores the fair total that opened the series at 194, and has risen to push line value on the under in game 3. Teams that are tied in a playoff series and head into game 3 have seen the total go over in the first 2, are 0-7-1 to the over! Great line value here, great public fade, and even better, despite the public backing the over the total is going down! So we have both line value (6 points over the fair total of game 1), public fade support with the line moving in the opposite direction, and situational support at 7-0-1 to the under. I'll back the under here.

I spent a lot of time digging up some stuff on this game, and came to the conclusion that this is worth a play. Teams playing in the second round as a home favorite with a line of less than -9 and a total of less than 190, have played to the over to a 13-0 ATS mark the last 8 years. I also have a bigger scenerio here that shows 25-4 to the over for a game situation in this one. I'm riding on the over.

The Atlanta Hawks outplayed the Bulls in game 1, and are off and running to a 1-0 series lead. They scored 103 points in game 1, and seemed to get a lot of easy buckets inside. This sets up for a game 2 that has proven to be high scoring as the situation that the table is set for here is 25-4 to the over. Hawks at 5-2 to the over vs teams with a winning home record, while the Bulls 8-3 to the over vs a winning team in their last 11. This one goes over the total.

Looking back at how these teams have played each other one thing is clear. Oklahoma City can't handle Memphis in the paint, and Oklahoma City has done a great job their themselves, as well as both these teams getting out on the break, and getting a lot of offensive rebounds. Those situations call for a lot of points tobe scored, and the last 5 meetings have averaged 211.4ppg. Offensive rebounding has averaged 26.4 per game and fast break points have averraged 33 per game. Points in the paint, eady buckets have averaged just shy of 100 per contest! needless to say 14 of the last 17 in Oklahoma City have gone over the total, and the Thunder is over the total to a 36-14-1 mark as a favorite of 5-10.5. Over gets the call.

The Miami Heat had toruble with Boston all season until the last meeting when they destroyed them by 23. The 4 games this season between these teams saw an average of 182.8ppg, but those numbers include a 219 point game where Boston shot way over 50% from the field including from deep, and Miami also shot 50% for the game. I have a situation for this game that shows the under striking at a 99-64-1 ATS rate for 60.7%I also have another situation which has shown 14-2 to the under in the playoffs live in this game, and a third that is a perfect 9-0 to the under. I'll go with the under here which is also 7-0-1 when the Heat face a team with a winning road record at home. Game 1 went over the total simply because of 3pt shooting variance. Both teams connected on 21-43 from 3pt range, which added 18-20 ppoints to the total. Under in game 2.

The Miami Heat had toruble with Boston all season until the last meeting when they destroyed them by 23. The 4 games this season between these teams saw an average of 182.8ppg, but those numbers include a 219 point game where Boston shot way over 50% from the field including from deep, and Miami also shot 50% for the game. I have a situation for this game that shows the under striking at a 99-64-1 ATS rate for 60.7%I also have another situation which has shown 14-2 to the under in the playoffs live in this game, and a third that is a perfect 9-0 to the under. I'll go with the under here which is also 7-0-1 when the Heat face a team with a winning road record at home.

Atlanta ranks 4th in 3pt FG defense so is Orlando's shooting woes from 3 unexpected or ordinary? Here is a look at Orlando vs the top 7 teams in 3pt FG defense this season: 206-663 .310 vs everyone else .381 overall .366 What this tells me is this is not an anomolly, they struggle against every good 3pt FG defense to the tune of 5.6% below their season average which is jaded upward by their prowess vs bad 3pt shooting defenses. There is over a 7pt difference from them playing against an avg to poor 3pt shooting defense, vs a top 7 one. They are shooting 27.8% in this series, which is 3% less than their adjusted avg vs good 3pt shooting defenses. That equates to less than 1 made 3 per their 24 attp. avg in the series. Also they shot even worse against Atlanta in the regular season from 3 thasn they have in the playoffs. On the road their adjusted average eliminates the 3% of their 24 avg attempts, so what I see is the 3pt shooting isn't the reason for games going under, it is the reason why they have value playing under! A look at the totals in the 27 games they have played vs the top 7 3pt FG defenses show 20 under and 7 over!~ Of the 3 overs 2 occured because of overtime, and another by a single point. Playoffs with last 3 or more under are 65-36-1 under Orlando 8-0 under this yr vs 51-60% teams ATL 17-6 under as +3 to -3 ATL 18-4 under as home dog ATL 17-4 under vs div ATL 8-0 under last 3 years home dog 3 or less UNDER gets the call

There isn't much I didn't say about this game when I made the under my total of the year in their last matchup. Certainly nothing has changed since then, and their is a lot of line value in this one. Game 4 of a playoff series has traditionally been for the defense. NBA playoff history for the last decade has produced a 142-104 mark to the under in game 4. If the previous game went under, it swells to 76-50 to the under, over 60% winners. All the things from game 3 still apply here, I will make my call on the under in this one.

This game has been on my radar since game 2 was completed between these teams with Oklahoma City holding a 2-0 lead. I have a playoff tried and tested one condition system that has gone 20-0 ATS to the under and is live in this game! I should also note that the fair total in this game is 202 which was the total set before prior to game 1 which was bet up by gamblers. So there is also substantial line value in this game. Denver is 26-13 to the under in all games vs winning teams this year, and the defense is much better since Melo left. Oklahoma City applies to yet another situation based in part on quadruple revenge, that shows 24-5 to the under. teams that play 6 or less games in 14 days are 20-5 to the under as well. Overall teams with triple revenge, no other qualifier, are 112-83 to the under. We have both substantial line value (3 points), and huge situational value. That makes for a PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR ON THE UNDER.

Many thought the Orlando Magic would breeze past the Atlanta Hawks in their opening round playoff series. The Hawks finished the regular season in a down ward spiral that saw them close at 11-20 over their last 31 games, losing their last 6. What people forget is this team was once 33-16 winning better than 2 of every 3 games they played. the Hawks match up very well with the Magic as they are 4-2 straight up on the season, and played just 2 of the 6 in Atlanta, winning both. What has been the staple of the Hawks team is keeping Orlando from scoring. The Magic have averaged just 85.2ppg in the 6 played thus far. The Magic haven't just struggled vs the Hawks, they have struggled all season against the top 9 defenses in the league as determined by fewest points per game allowed. The Magic have posted just 86.6ppg facing the top 9 defensive teams on the road this season. (regulation minutes only). There is more to add here, as better seeds that split their first 2 games at home in round 1 of the NBA playoffs are 17-2 to the under since 2004 playing game 3 on the road. The 6 gamesd this seasdon have seen an average of just 171.8ppg scored. The Magic are also 49-24-1 to the under after an ATS loss in their last 74. These teams have paired up to play 7 straight unders in Atlanta, with 20 of the last 27 matchups failing to reach the total. Hawks sport a 16-5 mark to the under in their last 21 as a home dog. Orlando 53-33 to the under in their last 86 vs a winning team, and 18-6 under this year to a total in the 180s. The play here is on the under.

Coach Popovich has been coaching a lot of playoff games in San Antonio over the last decade plus, and a lot of games period. He knows what wins, and that is defense, and after a game where his team loses straight up to a team, when they face that team the next time around the defense is usually what they bring. Popovich has been in a revenge situation a lot and the ladst 125 times his team's have been in this spot, they have played 80-45 to the under. I'll side with the under in this one.

The Orlando Magic were plain awful against the Atlanta Hawks in game one. Their offense was limited to just 2 players as Nelson, and Howard combined for 73 of their 93 points with the rest of the Magic combining for 8-34 shooting from the field, and 2-15 from beyond the arc. Atlanta scored 68 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined, and got good contributions all over the floor. This game fits a huge playoff situation, that has been 85-33 to the over the last 118 times it has come up, and tonight it says play on the over.

The regular season is winding down, and the Chicago Bulls still have a chance to secure homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. They have gotten to this point by winning each of their last 8 games. That sets up a huge situation here based in part on that winning streak. The situation that is live for the total in this game is 85-48-1 to the over since I discovered it, with an applicable subset in this game that is a stronger 24-8 ATS to the over. I'll make my call on the over in this one.

The Denver Nuggets have been a much improved defensive team since the trade with the Knicks. While they held 13 of the last 24 opponents to 100 or less, their previous 17 games they held just 1 opponent to 100 or less. Golden St. in't the same offensive team they have been in the past. This year 29 times they have been held below 100, 20 last year, 18 the year before, and just 11 the year before that. They are 19-7 to the under without rest, while Denver, playing much better defense is 16-5-1 to the under in their last 22. I have this one at 211, so value here on the under.

This game sets up into a 92-40 situation on the over and I will play this one to top the total.

This game sets up perfectly as it fits one of my all-time best over/under systems and situations in the NBA. This game has a lifetime mark of 108-35 ATS to the over. That is 75.5% chance of winning this game. This system is also 47-11 ATS the last 58 times it has occured for a win rate of over 81%. There is no need to go into any greater detail than this as it is my strongest situation of all that has over 125 games in the trial set. Milwaukee/Cleveland OVER THE TOTAL is my NBA total of the year.

The Nets have gotten out running with Derron Williams on the floor. He has made a difference in the tempo for the Nets, and supplies them with instant offense, and a decision maker that can get open looks for his teammates as well. The Nets are averaging 102ppg in the 12 games Williams has played, fueling an offense that is otherwise scoring 93ppg. The Pistons like to open things up at home against weaker teams as they have averaged 110ppg in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing record. This one also fits a bad team showdown under certain conditions that has favored the over to a 76-35-2 mark. Over gets the call.

The Denver Nuggets are a better team since their trade with the Knicks, and this team is playing better on the defensive end than they have in a long time. Oklahoma City has slumpe as bit of late offensively scoring 92 and 91 on a 2 game losing streak, and overall 10 of their last 13 have played to the under. The Thunder have also played to a 14-6 mark to the under as a dog in their last 20. Nuggets "new" team is now 13-3 to the under in their last 16. This game also fits an under situation that has produced over 70% winners in 1000 games. I'll back the under here.

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Under gets the call

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Under gets the call

The Washington Wizards have found the win column just 1 time all season on the road where they stand at a pathetic 1-34 for the season. There problem for the most part has been scoring. The Wizards have scored in the 70s in 3 of their last 9 road games. Washington is 35-16 to the under in their last 51 vs the West. Golden St. comes in at 19-6-1 to the under following a straight up win by more than 10 points. I'll go with the under in this one, riding a 70-35 under situation.

The Toronto Raptors are a mess. They are of limited talent, have a lot of injuries, and play little if any defense. Last night they allowed 138 at Golden St. putting the defenseless team at 125ppg allowed over their last 3. Their 15 games against losing teams not played on their own court this year show them allowing 111.4ppg. The Clippers are 26-9 to the over vs the East in their last 35, including 10-1 over vs the NBA Atlantic, and 19-9 to the over on 0 rest. This game also has a situation based on 2 bad teams under certain conditions that has been one of my top total systems. It is 82-39-2 to the over the last 123 times it has come up. I will play this one over the total.

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Over is the play

Was waiting on this one as the public is pushing this total up higher and higher. It opened at 210.5 and is currently 211.5 and probably will rise a bit more. Both these teams are off momentum building big wins, the Spurs won their last game by 15 and the Nuggets won their last game by 33. That sets up a longterm momentum situation predicated on playing defense on both sides. When you have a pair of teams with one off a 15 point or more win and the other off a 20 or more point win, the total has gone under 189-120-5 in 314 occurances in the NBA. If I add one more parameter, which is live for tonight's game, the winning margin for the under increases to 154-95-4 ATS to the under. I'll ride with the under in this one.

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Under gets the call

The Indiana Pacers average less than 100 points per game on the season, but over their last 26 games, they have stepped up the offense posting 102.5ppg. New Jersey has gotten a lot more offense since Derron Williams has taken over. He is contributing 14.6ppg and dishing 13.1 assists. The Nets are averaging just shy of 100 since he took over. This game also fits a situation that has seen the over prevail to a count of 156-106 the last 262 times it has arisen. I'll go with the over in this one.

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Under is the play

The Miami Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and each of these teams played last night. The Nuggets hammered the heat in Denver in an earlier matchup by the score of 130-102. That sets up a revenge situation here that plays on certain blowout losers, which has gone 73-42 ATS the last 115 times it has arisen. It plays on the total to go over. heast has been 37-16-1 to the over in their last 54 vs the NBA Northwest. Look for this matchup to go over the total.

The rest of the NCAAB season is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with tournaments deciding season fates, and who gets their one shinning moment. While some teams have struggled down the stretch, and others have peeked , some have a lot of pressure, others will be playing loose. Post season Tournament games have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next 3 weeks I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those tournament games with a decisive edge. Under gets the call.

These teams have been train wrecks this season, and particularly the Wizards on the road at a very ugly 1-30, beating only the lowly Cavs. The points have been hard to come by for the Wizards on the road, but most of their road games have been vs winning teams at 21 compared to just 11 vs losing teams, and they have scored against the weaker teams. They have averaged a total of 205ppg on the road in their games vs losing teams, including a season high 235 vs these same Raptors. This game also fits a huge over situation which is 62-39 to the over the last 101 times it has come up. I'll play the over in this one.

The Sacramento Kings have been a momentum offense all season long, to the point it has become quite predictive. This team opened with 5 straight overs, then went 12 straight games scoring 100+ just 1 time. Fast forward to their last 19 games and 17 of them have gone over the total. They have now scored 100+ in 8 straight games while allowing 100+ in 7 straight games. They are also 17-3 to the over following 2 strauight games with the total points scored of 205 or more. Cleveland now stands at 24-11 to the over in 35 games posted as a road dog this season. Over is the call here.

The Miami Heat has gotten things rolling, and blew out San Antonio at home. This team is obviously at their best when they are playing strong defense, and right now they are in defensive mode. They also set up in a hot longterm situation that has played out to an 86-44 mark to the under in this one. This is a very reliable situational angle and one of few that I play basically blindly. That makes the call in this one on the under for the win.

The Atlanta Hawks have had a tough time scoring points of late, despite the fact they scored 110 vs Milwaukee here last night. They are currently 11-3 to the under in their last 14 playing to a total of 200 or more. This game also sets up as one of my leading situational angles that has been 86-44 to the under, a highly predictive situation. Nuggets are also 39-19-1 to the under when on the road facing a home team with a winning percentage of greater than .600 in their last 59. Under gets the call.

The rest of the NCAAB seasdon is as exciting as it gets. It is now crunch time with conference tournaments deciding post-season fates, and who gets a ticket to the big dance. While some teams have already punched their tickets, some have more work to be done to build their resumes. Conference tournaments have left behind a blueprint of edges, and over the next week and a half, I will be exploiting those edges. I have countless situational angles, that have proven themselves over and over. This game fits in as one of those conference tournament games with a decisive edge.Under gets the call

Orlando comes into this one off a loss as a road favorite vs Golden St. The will be facing another team that likes to get out and run the floor, but Orlando won't have anything to do with that in this one, as they will go to school on what beat them against Golden St. Phoenix isn't the running team they have been in the past, but still like to get out in the open court for some quick looks. This game fits into a situation that ha been 64-31 to the under over the last 95 times it has occured, and I will side with the underr in this one.