This game fits a total situation that is 195-108 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game features a weather alert with winds sustained at 30 MPH during the game, with gusts to 45 MPH. The market has adjusted but not enough. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a 103-47 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are heated rivals, and this is a huge game as the winner will certain be viewed as a high rated Super Bowl caliber team. Division games are wars, and this one has always been an intense battle. Intensity is often a synonym for defense and that is what I expect here in this one. These games virtually never meet scoring expectations, and in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore just one game has seen both teams combine for more than 46 points (48), and it has been 12 years since these teams have gotten to even 43. The Steelers are 28-2 to the under on the road to a total of fewer than 49 points in their last 30. Make the play on the under.

The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best team in the NFL, and Pat Mahomes has been special. The Chiefs offense is still very potent, but it hasn't been quite as explosive as it was a year ago to this point. Kansas City closed last season in top form averaging 37ppg in their final 4 games, but have yet to top the 34 point mark this season. Doing so in Denver won't be easy. The Broncos always play tough defense, and currently have the longest streak in the NFL of not allowing more than 30 points, as they have gone 32 straight games without doing so. They have more impressive numbers at home allowing 2 of their lst 59 opponents to top the 30 point mark. Broncos offense is a disaster, and the KC defense is vastly underrated because the offense gets all the ink. This is all topped off by the fact that the game time temperature for Sunday is expected to be in the teens, with snow falling through the game. make the play on the under.

This game fits my mega totals situation, and the play is on the under.

This game is part of the mega total system that I have. Make the play on the under.

This is a system play that plays under the total on a division home favorite with a total of 44 or more if they are on regular rest and their opponents last opponent scored fewer than 32 points. This is 195-115 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

Duke has one number that is difficult to wrap around. Through 5 games they have turned the ball over 19 times. That means the offense has forfeited possession 19 times, yet they have scored 31 and 38 points in the last 2 games, and had 102 offensive snaps in their last one despite 4 turnovers. NC State has scored 137 points and allowed 137 points through 4 games, or on average close to 70ppg. I think the points will be flowing in this game, and would project this one closer to 70 than 60. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game fits a totals system that is a ridiculous 432-211-14 ATS at 67.2% winners on 657 games. Make the play on the under. (5-1 under so far this year)

This game is part of my monster total algorithm, that has crushed totals in NCAA Football for years, and is 66% over 800+ games. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-47-4 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

It seems like a team playing on Monday Night just opens the playbook and let's it fly if they have a bye coming up the following week. Perhaps the defense doesn't focus as well looking forward the 2 weeks without another game. Whatever the reason or theory, when a team plays on Monday Night and has a bye the following week the over is 58-31-2 ATS. It helps if they are a good team as .600 or better teams in this situation are 31-13-2 ATS to the over. (14-2-1 ATS to the over since 2009). Make the play on the over.

The 3 military schools Army, Navy, and Air Force run the triple option almost every play. That leads to short games, and defenses that practice against it every day, and always do a good job against it when they face each other. the 3 schools are now 33-9 to the under when facing each other the last 14 years. Make the play on the under.

The Army has started at 2-0, after a disappointing 5-8 season in 2019. I don`t think the 2-0 record says they are back, as they were 3-1 last yer, before finishing 2-7. This year they have faced 2 brutal opponents, and it has made them look a lot better than they really are. The offense is going to struggle against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 20.6ppg a year ago and return 10 starters. Those 10 starters shutout Navy allowing 124 rushing yards on 52 carries. Army tends to have an edge running the triple option, but Cincinnati has defended the option vs Navy with the returning starters, and I don`t think Army is going to score much at all here. The Army defense is pretty solid and Cincinnati is not an explosive offensive team. Army will milk a lot of clock running on just about every down, and Cincinnati runs a lot as well. This game fits an extremely strong under indicator, that is 40-6-6 ATS, that plays in part on two teams off 4 TD or better wins. Make the play on the under.

This gam fits a situation that has an ROI of +13.9% and the play is on the over.

If you are a Packers fan, it was good to see Aaron Rodgers have a big day. Many thought the Packers loading up on running backs, and not addressing the pass catchers Rodgers needs meant the Packers were going to turn to the running game. That certainly wasn't the case vs a depleted and weak Minnesota secondary, and likely we will see the same thing vs Detroit, who has a depleted secondary due to injuries.The Packers put up over 500 yards of offense, but also gave up 34 points themselves. Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-42 attempts for 297 yards, one touchdown, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.Those are strong numbers against a pretty good Bears defense. I think Stafford can put up similar numbers against Green Bay, and the fast pace offense of the Bears was too much for the Lions. There was 7 points lost in that game as D"Andre Swift dropped a wide open pass in the end-zone that would have won the game for the Lions with just a few ticks on the clock. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +11.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 104-64-4 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Notre Dame will be a member of the ACC in the strange year of covid-19. This has long been a team predicated on defense. Over the last 179 Irish games the under has prevailed 100-74-5 ATS, with just an average of 49 total points having been scored despite the average total being posted in their games having been 53.2. There is a long term bias on this team's posted totals. It may be attributable of the huge following this team has, and square bettors opting for the over the majority of the time. Once again I see that bias at work in the total here as I see 6-7 points worth of value. Notre Dame in its last 350 games has allowed 18.4ppg. that drops to 15.1ppg in game 1. Duke averaged a misleading 25ppg a year ago, but against the better defensive teams they were extremely limited, and managed just 7 vs ND. Former Clemson QB Chase Brice will be the Duke QB, but with limited practice time, and a strong defense, I'm not believing he will have a whole lot of success. This total is quite tainted in history, and as it stands now. Make the play on the under.

This is a game 7 and ther is a long history o game 7's playing under the total, however that has been baked into the line here. This game fits a situation that is 186-100-10 ATS, which is 32-16 ATS if it is a playoff game, including 2-0 if it is game 7. Make the play on the over.

The Arkansas Red Wolves have a long history of being a very strong team at home, but a very weak one on the road. When it comes to playing outside the conference the numbers only get worse. Arkansas St. is 40-24 SU at home outside the conference, and over the same period of time they are 7-103-5 SU on the road. The average score of the games at home have been 31.7 to 21.6 on the road just 13.7 to 35.7. This has led to an abundance of games failing to get to the total, as the under is cashing just 27.2% of all games. One huge change in the Red Wolves offense is the loss of WR Omar Bayless and his 17 TDs and 1,653 yards. He averaged nearly 12 yards per target, and that simply will not be replaced. The Memphis defense should be better this year with 8 returning starters and the entire secondary. A high total like this in game 1 and the situation here tends to look inflated. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +13.0% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +11.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.3% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.7% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.7% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.2% and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.2% and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2%, and the play is on the over.

The Denver Nuggets needed overtime in game 1, and came away with a 10 point win. Donovan Mitchell was immense for the Jazz as he scored 57 in the loss. The game saw 230 points scored prior to overtime despite the fact the Jazz connected on just 16-49 from deep, turned the ball over 15 times, and could not get stops when needed the most. I think the best offensive matchup for the Jazz is Rudy Gobert, and look for him to get a lot more touches in game 2. These teams have played all close games this season with the last 2 going to overtime, so there could be a lot of free throws in the final 1-2 minutes off this one. This game also fits a situation that is 563-403-17 ATS to the over, which is also 62-34-2 ATS to the over in the playoffs. make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that has an ROI of +14.1% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that has an ROI of +14.1% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.5%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.1%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 16.4% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 1072-705-85 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 563-402-17 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 446-312-22 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 1070-704-85 ATS with an ROI of +14.1%. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 94-43-3 ATS, and the play is on the over.

Saturday August 8th, 2020

  Top Total Play · Under   [715] Utah Jazz vs. [716] Denver Nuggets
    Sat Aug 8th, 2020 3:35pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-116 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 178-96 ATS, and the play is on the over.

SCORING UP FOR BOTH TEAMS = OVER:

When there is a game between a pair of teams in MLB that have played a week worth of games, and the runs their games are producing has averaged pretty high, and they are facing each other to a high total, the tendency is for them to play over the total. Today in the newsletter we will illustrate exactly that theory, and call on a game that applies on tonight's card. Let's take a look:

1)  Both teams are averaging a combined score of more than 9 runs a game over their last 7 games.

2)  Total is greater than or equal to 10

3) I will insert this is a road game just to stop the games from being counted twice:

As you can see there are tons of games with a sample size of over 1,850 games a win rate on the over of 60.3%. that is about as solid as it gets. Tonight consider SF/COLO OVER the total.

This game fits a totals situation that is 290-215-26 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that has a 58.6% win rate. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that has produced 58.4% winners over the last 11 years. The play is on the over.

The Charlotte Hornets are a woeful 22-42 on the season. The offense has really struggled but thy have recently found a few more answers as their last 4 games have seen this team average 115.3ppg, which is their highest 4 consecutive game average of the season. They have issues with the better teams on the road where their usually good defense has been torched for 115.6ppg against a team .500 or better. Miami has been a hidden gem playing them on the over where they are now 46-15-1 ATS to the over as a home favorite of more than -3 points, to a total of greater than 206 in their last 62 beating the total on average by +5.48ppg. make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 107-47-2 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 63-31 ATS (which is also 37-14 ATS in March games) to the under. I also see a couple points of line value here. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 81-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Most of the NCAA Conference Tournaments are played at a neutral site. There are 2 things at work here, that assist the total going under. First there are the nerves that have to be settled down, and 2nd a neutral court means that neither team has a lot of experience shooting in a background that they are not accustomed to. When you add to the mix that the total isn't exceedingly low, and the favorite is a low volume shooting team (55 shots a game or fewer), we have all the elements in play to put our thumbs on the scales and have an advantage over the odds-makers. This can be depicted like this:

1)  Neutral court

2)  Conference tournament

3)  True favorite of -3 or more

4)  total is 129 or higher

5) Favorite averages 55 shots per game or fewer.

site = neutral and total >= 129 and tA(FGA)

The Lakers have scored 111 or more points in 15 of their last 16 games. That includes 12 straight at home. they have also scored 117 or more in 14 of 17 games at home vs a team with a losing record, where they average 120ppg. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 ATS to the over (22-4 ATS the last 26). Make the play on the over.

The Spurs mantra over the past 2 decades was built on defense, but things have changed. They have allowed 7 of the last 13 teams they faced to shoot over 50%. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 to the over (22-4 lately). Make the play on the over.

March Madness has begun as Conference Tournaments have already seen plenty of upsets. The neutral court sometimes creates problems for a team offensively as they have a different shooting background and in many cases that takes time for the players to get used to. Higher scoring teams off a pair of over games to help elevate the total seem to be an area of impact for these games. Let's take a look:


1) Neutral site

2)  Favored by -4 or more points

3)  The team is off at least 2 games over the total

4)  team averages 80+

5) Opponent averages at least 70+
 

These games have produced 58.7% of 157 games UNDER the total. Tonight consider San Francisco and Gonzaga UNDER the total.

The Vermont program gas been very consistently good over the years. They have posted 20+ wins for 12 straight years. They have played to a lower posted total on average than any of the previous 6 years. They are scoring and allowing fewer points than any of the precious 5 seasons. The defense is allowing 59.2ppg, while the offense is at just 71.1ppg, the lowest mark in 6 yrs. Albany is a slow-down team that is 64-37 to the under in its last 101 games (20-7 this year). I expect this game to play in the 120s, or less. make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 196-139-7 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER

Albany has been 64-35 ATS to the under over its last 99 games, and I see some line value here as well. Make the play on the under.

South Dakota is one of the top shooting teams in the country on their home floor as they are connecting on 53% for the season. They are also shooting 43.1% from 3 on home hardwood. North Dakota plays spotty defense, especially on the road so the home team here is going to have a lot of open and easy looks. South Dakota is averaging 86ppg at home on the season. South Dakota has been 18-8-1 ATS to the over on the season. Moreover this N. Dakota team is 66-38-1 ATS to the over in their last 105 road games. (`12-4 ATS this year). Make the play on the over.

A high level MAC Conference game has Akron taking on Buffalo. The Bulls were a Cinderella type team a year ago, but lost a lot of firepower. They are still scoring because of a fast pace attack but the shooting percentages are considerably down from a year ago. Akron is 21-7 and in a similar boat, as they like to run as well, but are not a very efficient offense. Both these teams defend very well. Akron has been a fool's gold team as they tend to score a lot of points, but never reach the potential set by the odds-makers. Akron is 62-34-1 ATS to the under in its last 97 games, and their last 8 have played under the total, none reaching the level here to go over. Make the play on the under.

The Kansas Jayhawks are a successful team every year because they have the ability and willingness to defend. This allows this team to win on the road and it has shown up in the scores of their road games. Over their last 99 road games they are 66-29-4 ATS to the under. They have not allowed any team to score more than 63 points against them on the road this season, leading to a 10-0 ATS mark to the under on the road. Additionally, the Kansas offense averages 79ppg on the season at home and just 67.8ppg on the road. This has led to 21ppg less scoring on the road. Kansas St. allows just 61.6pph at home on the season. Make the play on the under.

The Washington Wizards have no regard on the defensive end of the court. They love to run and shoot, and play to outscore the opponent regardless of who they are. When they play on the road they are allowing 130ppg on the season. Put them in a high total of more than 229 points and they are 15-2 ATS to the over with an average of 251.1ppg scored beating the total by +16.88ppg. (11-0 ATS in their last 11. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.

Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.

LSU is now 53-26-2 ATS to the over in its last 81 road games. That includes 7-1 this season where their road games have averaged 164.3ppg. Make the play on the over.

Trying to speed this Fordham team up at home is an improbable task. The Rams play great defense, and their methodical style, leads to low possession ugly games. The Rams are 90-69-5 to the under here, including 65-39-5 to the under most recently, and 11-3-1 this season. UMass is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 overall. Make the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors saw their 15 game winning streak come to an end just prior to the All-Star break. They will begin the 2nd half at 40-15 on the season. The Raptors have piled up the points vs bad teams this season as they average 120.3ppg vs an opponent that is .400 or worse. That has led them to a 16-4 mark to the over in those 20 games. This game also fits a 90-48 ATS mark situation on the over. Make the play over the total in this one.

The NBA All-Star break is over, so is their anything in terms of a situation that has developed after the long layoff? Today we will take a look at a situation that has occurred the 1st game back from the All-Star game, apparently defense is not part of the mindset when we have this scenario:

1) 1st game after the All-Star break

2)  Home favorite of more than -3

3) Winning percentage greater than .390 and less than .730

4)  Since 1999

 

Defense is obviously still on the break as these teams have crashed the total at a 65.2% rate covering 141 games. Tonight consider Philadelphia/Brooklyn OVER the total.

Coastal Carolina and Troy both like to push the tempo and I expect these teams are going to put up some points tonight. Coastal Carolina is 16-9 to the over on the season and has allowed 75+ points in 8 straight games and 10 out of 11. Troy has allowed 76ppg in their last 12. A road team off of 3 straight losses by 6 or fewer points, facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 80+ are 14-0-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over.

Samford has allowed 81ppg in their last 69 games on the road. That has led them to a 46-20 mark to the over. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 60-43 to the under. Make the play on the under.

W. Virginia has shot the ball woefully bad in their last 3 games at 62-191. That is just 32.5% from the field. Kansas and Baylor may have played a role in some of that a pair of elite defensive teams. What it has done is set them up in this game for a strong over situation. Home teams that have shot 35% or less in at least 3 straight games are 65-26-3 to the over if the posted total is fewer than 141 points. Make the play on the over.

The Fordham Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the country shooting at just 38% for the season. That has been even worse in conference games where they are shooting a dreadful 36.6%. Their slowdown methodical pace has led to just 52.6ppg. This has been going on for awhile and at home the Rams are now 64-39-5 to the under in their last 108 on home hardwood. The 1st meeting this season saw just 114 total points scored, and not much has changed. Make the play on the under.

Colorado is coming into this game off a loss at Oregon, and will be hungry to overturn the bad feeling. that game played in the 120s and I would expect a similar path for this game. Colorado has an elongated track record of getting after it on the road on the defensive end where their last 104 road games have produced a 68-36 mark to the under (6-1 this year). That mark in conference games is 53-27 to the under. Oregon St. has gone 6 straight games without producing total points that would go over this total. Make the play on the under.

NBA VERY GOOD TEAMS = UNDER:

Everyone likes to watch a game between a pair of very good teams. When it comes time for such a game in the NBA, the defense, which is often absent from most NBA games often takes center stage. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at how that plays out. There is a bias in such games in the NBA as we take a look at total results when both teams are .600 or better, with a home favorite:

We see the UNDER is a blind winner with a super sample size of over 2700 games.

We also see that when these games feature a high total it gets stronger:

This goes live tonight in Houston as the Celtics invade. Consider the UNDER in this contest.

Tennessee is a tough place to play and this team has been impossible to score on at home where they have allowed 63.6ppg over their last 95 home games limiting opponents to 39% shooting. they have faced Kentucky here 5 times during this period and 4 of the 5 have played under the total as well. Kentucky has shot just 41% in these games and 28% from deep. These 95 games has seen Tennessee go 62-31-2 to the under. Male the play on the under.

The Toronto Raptors have won 12 straight games, the last coming from a 19 point deficit against this same Indiana team. It has been an offensive explosion as the Raptors have scored 120.6ppg in the streak. That has led to another streak, as they are 8-3-1 to the over as well. Indiana has been piling up the points as well, with 12 of their last 17 eclipsing the total. This game also plays into a situation that is 166-88 ATS to the over as well. Make the play on the over.

Sacramento St. is 11-9 on the season, and this team has been taking the air out of the ball for quite some time. They allow just 55.9ppg on the road this season and overall they are now 52-23 to the under in their last 75 road games. Weber St. has a string basketball history but not this year as they are 8-14. Make the play on the under.