This game fits a situation that is 498-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 548-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 227-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 961-801 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-347 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 224-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 75-41 ATS and the play is on the over.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 58-41 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.

 ALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!2016SPORTWINSLOS8ESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 betNCAAF  17-18665255.9+8.89+889.00+1778.00NFL  17-18534255.8+6.41641.001282.00MLB  2017241257----13.91-1391.00-2782.00NFLX '176366.7+2.84+284.00+568.00WNBA '17201655.6+2.81+281.00+562.00CFL '178377.8+4.80+480.00+960.00NFL TOTALS162044.4-5.26-526.00-1052.00MLB PLYOFS54---+0.90+90.00+180.00NBA  2017654957.0+12.54+1254.00+2508.00NBA TOTALS281762.2+9.92992.00+1984.00NCAAB 17-18182541.9-8.63-863.00-1726.00                 
                         ALL SPORTS JANUARY 1, 2011 THROUGH THE PRESENTALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!****- The All games won/lost column does not reflect won/lost record of MLB, as it is a moneyline sport, but does reflect units won or lost. same with the total annual standings below.6YEARWINSLOSSESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 bet201155243855.9+71.06+7106.00+14212.00201252048451.8-23.19-2319.00-4638.00201348443452.8+53.09+5309.00+10618.00201454953350.7-8.80-880.00-1760.00201569266551.4+2.49+249.00+498.00201670165751.9-20.78-2078.00-4156.00201760252553.8+32.98+3298.00+6596.00                                                               ALL4067370352.4%+108.07+10807.0021614.00
 Yesterday's Result:



NBA:  0-0   

NCAAB:  0-0

NCAAF:  0-0

NFL:  1-0   +1.00

Won with Denver in the NFL  1-0  +1.00 units

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Over the last 2535 days clients are up +108.07 units documented daily.
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Please also note that football season is here, and Tuesday is now the day with no newsletter.
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The NBA season is one of the longest of all professional sports. The exhibition season starts in September and a Champion isn't crowned until the middle of June. That leaves just 2 months without any NBA basketball, July and August. There will be a lot of ups and  downs, and paying attention to what a team is experiencing in the moment is telling. Today in the newsletter we ill take a look at a situation that applies to a game tonight, featuring the Utah jazz at Boston. Boston has put together an early season resume built on defense, and the Utah Jazz has been a defensive oriented team over the past few seasons. No team scored more than 108 points against Boston, through Thanksgiving, but since then 4 of their last 9 have done so. Utah, has allowed 108ppg over their last 4. So we have a pair of defensive teams, squaring off to a low total, that have appeared a bit tired of late, so what do we have?:

1)  Road team to a low total from 191.5 to 199.5

2)  Road team has allowed at least 100 points to each of its last 2 opponents

3)  Home team saw 234 or more points score in its last game.

These teams have played to a:

32-5  O/U mark since the start of the 1998 season, topping the total by 11.91ppg. Each team has averaged 102+ppg. 

If your worried about back fitting a short defined total range, in this case 191.5 to 199.5, then also consider the fact that if we remove the total parameter completely and play this situation to any total:

203-140-3 O/U   59.2% to the OVER on 346 games. The 32-5 ATS is just a sweet spot defined by anticipated low totals. 

Consider Utah/Bos OVER the total tonight at the Garden.

This game fits a situation that is 296-190 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 84-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 545-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-126 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 101-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a situation that fits a 177-117 ATS situation ad the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has a 112-69 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 167-92 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 219-125 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 495-346 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 219-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is is 200-123 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is is 167-91 ATS and the play is on the under.

This is a weather play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 533-388 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This is a weather play on the UNDER.

This game fits a situation that is 373-226 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 212-138 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 164-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 164-91 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 543-424 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 117-77 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 493-345 ATS record, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that has a 98-42 ATS record, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 214-122 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 199-123 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 113-57 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

The Detroit Lions saved their season last week in Green Bay with a 27-17 win on Monday Night. That has gotten Detroit even at 4-4, but they have had red-zone issues all season. Detroit has managed just 45.8% scoring TD's in the red-zone, while Cleveland is at 45%. DeShone Kizer has been in and out as the Cleveland starting QB, and his 52% completion rate, just 3 TD's and 11 INT's are not NFL caliber at this stage of his career. The Browns have gotten to 20 points just one time this season, all the way back to game 3, and have averaged just 14.6ppg with Kizer at QB. The Browns defense is better than it looks, last year they allowed 10 teams to go for 400+ yards, and this year none. Think there is some value on the under here, and a situation here that is 31-69 O/U offers some support. Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Pelicans scoring is trending up, and when you have twin towers Cousins and Davis adding 56 points, 27 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks, your not afraid to get the ball up and down. This team has gone for 114+ in half their games on the season, and their opponents have squeezed off an average of 97 shots a game in their last 3. Clippers in at 111ppg in their last 5, but have lost 4 straight and last 2 opponents went for 120. This sets up a huge long term situation that is 493-344 O/U. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Boston Celtics were primed to be a contender for an NBA Championship, bringing in Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, and drafting Jason Tatum. Those dreams appeared to end 5 minutes into the season when Gordon Hayward suffered a season ending gruesome injury. Boston seemed to be hung over after that, lost their first two games, but have since been a force and take the court tonight vs their arch-rival LA Lakers on a 9 game winning streak. Boston has seen 20 year old Jalen Brown come of age, and 19 year old Jason Tatum is putting up rookie of the year numbers. The Celtics are defending better than anyone, controlling the glass, and have a deep team. The Lakers have been slowly improving and come in at 5-5 to start the season. Boston has held 8 of their 9 opponents during the winning streak to 94 points or less. I look to the Lakers game against Utah, a team that defends for 48 minutes, and the shots were way down, and just 177 total points scored. This game fits a match up indicator that has been lethal over the years to the total, and is 128-212-8 O/U the last 348 times it has come up. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 196-128 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 298-177 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 41-14 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This is an early season big time match up, with Oklahoma City hosting Boston. It certainly is a good measuring stick as to where these teams are. While both these teams have plenty of firepower, they have each been average to this point shooting the ball. The success for these clubs has come on the defensive end, where both have excelled to start the season, and with a meaningful measuring stick game, I expect both defenses to be at their best tonight. Boston since opening the season 0-2 has held 6 opponents to an average of 90ppg. The Thunder have held 5 of 7 opponents to 96 points or less. This game also fits a totals profile that is 91-163 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 209-118 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Dwane Casey seems to have all players bought in now on his defensive emphasis. His Raptor's team smothered Portland on the road, and its on to Denver at 4-2 to start the season. Outside of a game vs the Golden St. offensive machine, the Raptors have limited opponents to 101 points or less in 5 games. The Raptors get their hands on a lot of balls, and have forced 18.3 turnovers per contest. Nuggets off 2 big scoring games vs defenseless NY and Brooklyn, have otherwise struggled averaging less than 100 in their other 5 contests. Total has been pushed upward, but if Toronto continues to buy in on Casey's defensive demands, this one won't make it. Coming into play for this contest is a huge and successful total indicator, which has logged an impressive 256-160 mark to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Weekday totals (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday historically play well under the total, in fact they are 228-308-11 O/U over the last decade. Make the play on the under.

Scoring thus far in the NBA has ticked down a bit, but after steadily increasing, the odds makers have been over-adjusting, and have missed by 1.37ppg thus far, equating to a 1.75% advantage to the under. They will eventually get this straightened out. Kings opened the season with 3 straight strong defensive efforts, but last 3 showing 114ppg allowed. This is not likely to continue, as the pace of their games, has not changed. A couple of monster shooting games by Indiana has the offense looking much better than it is, and my total for this game is 207, so there is some decent line value here. This game also fits a statistical match up indicator, that has been a powerful tool for decades, and shows 281-180 ATS in favor of the under here. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 67-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This is a young Milwaukee team, and usually that means a lot of empty trips on defense. That has not been the case with this team, as they are 3-2 on the season despite getting pounded off the glass where they are -10 a game. They stay in games because they put the work in on the defensive end, and that has led to 4 of their opponents shooting less than 43% for the game, and their pace has been below average. Atlanta shot the ball well on opening night in Dallas, but have since struggled, shooting under 40% in 3 of 4, and there are not a lot of consistent scoring options on the floor, and the result is 5 straight under the total. The winner has averaged 100.5ppg in the last 11 meetings, in a series that has often been represented by first one to 100 wins. This game also fits an under situation that is very reliable at 299-172 ATS, make the play on the under.

Clippers at 3-0 have not yet felt the impact of losing Chris Paul. The biggest asset for this team so far has been the defense allowing just 88ppg, despite a lot of uptempo by opponents, and despite the pace, all 3 have played under the total. They have been huge off the glass,and turning the opponent at a high rate. Portland not afraid to push the pace, but at the expense of offensive efficiency, with 3 of 4 in the under column to start the season. Many will observe low total, and site pace as an indicator of a lot more points, but hasn't been showing up on the scoreboard. Bulk of Blazers shots have come in first 10 seconds of the shot clock (36%), and Clippers defending well, will lower efficiency. Statistical match up indicator showing 37-66 O/U here, supports thoughts for a lower scoring game than projected. Make the play on the under. Gazing into the public action at many sources sees bettors are 63-67% on the over, but total on the decline, as bigger smart money sees this differently. Make the play on the under.

The Dallas Mavericks have limited options, and often have to run the shot clock down, as the offense plays for good shots, and also tries to limit total possessions as a strategy to stay in games. They were 26-15 to the under a year ago at home, and the average points scored were 197.3. Memphis has already played Golden St. and Houston this season, a pair of explosive offensive teams, and held them to a combined 95.5ppg. The Houston game saw just 145 total shots taken. The Mavs are a better defensive team than what they have shown through 4 games, and will look a lot better at home vs a team with limited offense. Last 11 meetings between these teams has seen both teams get to 100 in just 2 of them, and the last 11 in Dallas has seen both teams get to 100 in just 1 of them. This game also features a statistical match up situation that has produced a 199-123 ATS mark to the under. Playing this one under the total.

Boston took a blow 5 minutes into their season when Gordon Hayward went down with a season ending injury. Brad Stevens has tried to use his entire roster, and still seems to be experimenting with combinations, to see what looks best. This does take some continuity and flow out of the offense that lacks consistent scorers other than Kyrie Irving, but he is shooting just 37%. Al Horford is at 38% and Marcus Smart at 31%. When you add it all up Boston is shooting just 41.8%, and just 32.8% from 3. Knicks trying to find 20-30 shots a night vacated when they moved Melo, but 43.1% from the floor says they are still searching, and a woeful 27% from deep speaks volumes of their offensive struggles. This game fits a statistical match up situation that has been the fuel for a 123-198 O/U situation, active in Boston tonight. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-46 ATS and the play is on over.

This game fits a situation that is 64-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 64-37 ATS and the play is on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers have been just bad enough to lose each of their first 6 games in 2017. They have lost the last 5 of them all by 3 points or less. Their first 2 games of the season saw them do nothing offensively, as they generated 12 total points and under 240 yards a game. The offense has been doing much better since, as they have averaged 25.3ppg on 366 yards per game. Last week CJ Bethard in his NFL debut looked like a poised veteran when he came in and threw for 245 yards on 19-36, and nearly rallied the Niners to victory. He will get the start Sunday. The Dallas offense is doing fine, but the defense has allowed 35 or more points in 3 of their last 4, and has been average on the season. San Francisco has been vulnerable in the air, and I would expect Dak Prescott to have a big game. A team that is off a home favorite loss, and playing on the road, in the first half of the season (prior to week 9)are 55.8% to the over. These teams in their last 4 games (8 games total), has seen the average points scored in their game at 55.8ppg. Niners 18-1 to the over as a single digit dog vs a team that forces less than 1.25 turnovers per game, and allows less than 4.95 yds a carry on the season since 2006, going over by over 7ppg. Make the play over the total.

This game is based on one of my top totals situations which is 57-17 ATS, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation that is 80-32 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 75-49 ATS, and the play is on the under

The Ball St. Cardinals has seen their offense diminish considerably in the absence of starting QB Riley Neal. He has been replaced by 5th year senior Jack Milas. Milas was decent in his freshman year throwing 9 TD's to 5 INT's at 6.2 yards per attempt, but he has since regressed, lost his job, and has been pretty bad since. Milas since the start of his sophomore year has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, with just 2 TD's and 11 INT's (0 TD's and 6 INT's this year. His last 2 games have seen the Cardinal's offense produce 6 points on 3.77 yards per play. C. Michigan has generated 15ppg in their last 5, playing under the total in all 5 games. This game fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U. I will make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 1136-968 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 489-344 ATS, and the play is on the over.

When you think of W. Kentucky, you think one thing, offense. That was true under Jeff Brohm, as his team averaged 44.7ppg in his 3 year tenure. Those numbers are gone, and W. Kentucky is averaging a pedestrian 25.5ppg this season, as Brohm has moved on to Purdue. Old Dominion is trying to find their way in the FBS, and the offense has really struggled this season. The Monarchs have produced just 16.2ppg against FBS opponents on the season, and turnovers have also been stinking them, as they have averaged 2 per contest. W. Kentucky has allowed 18.8ppg on the season, with no team topping 23 against them on the season. This game also fits a situation that is 57-124 O/U, and my play in this game is on the under.

The Atlanta Falcons had one of those seasons a year ago, where everything seemed to work perfectly, that is except for holding a big lead in the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan was on fire and dialed in the entire season throwing 44 TD's to just 7 INT's, including the playoffs. The Falcons reached 30 points in 13 games, and went 16-3 to the over. Those seasons are hard to duplicate, and things are not looking nearly the same this season. The 34.1ppg from a year ago has dropped to 26ppg this year, and Ryan is almost at his INT total from a year ago through 4 games, with 5. Moreover, Julio Jones was injured last game, and will play, but may not be up to speed, and Mohamed Sanu is still out with a hamstring injury. Miami is 2-2 despite averaging just 10.5ppg, and that is because they have not allowed any team to get over 20 on the season, and the most points scored in their games this year by both teams is just 36. They have played some very quick games, with none of them seeing as many as 120 total plays snapped. Ryan has faced Miami twice in the last 5 years with an average of 38 points scored. Miami fits a total situation that has been 34-59 O/U since 1989, and active for this one. Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Jacksonville Jaguars today. The Jaguars have not gotten the consistency out of QB Blake Bortles that they had hoped to have at this stage of his career, despite an inflated 44 points against Baltimore 2 games back. Bortles has a very pedestrian 81.7 passer rating coming into this contest, and their 5.8 yards per attempt vs defenses that average allowing 6.7 is considerably below average. The running game is +0.2 yards vs the defenses they have faced, so their 27.2ppg average is heading for a rather steep regression. Defensively, the Jags are allowing just 18.5ppg, and the biggest reason is their pass defense allowing just 4.8 yards per attempt. The Jags can however be run on, and I expect Pittsburgh to put it on the ground often here, as their offense has been very poor through 4 games, generating -0.5 yards per play vs what the defensive average of opponents allows. Pittsburgh has been even more elite than Jacksonville vs the pass, allowing 4.4 yards per attempt, but also struggle stopping opponents ground games. This game looks to be a ground war, and the last 23 meetings between these clubs has seen an average of just 36 total points scored, and Big Ben, in 7 games vs the Ville has averaged just 18.3ppg, and in the 23 meetings, Pittsburgh has never topped 30 points. Make the play on the under.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit top level defense, but has allowed 62.5% TD`s in the red-zone, but only 8 attempts, and strong defenses are not prone to that type of percentage, so expect that to drop. This game also fits a totals indicator, based on how these teams got here off of last week, which has been 22-58 O/U and particularly strong recently. Make the play on the under.

The Yankees and the Indians have a couple of things in common. They can hit the long ball from any spot in the order. They also have amazing bull pens, that can shut a game down from the 5th inning on. The bats are going to be challenged in this one, as Yankee starter Sonny Gray has held the Tribe to 42-179 over his career with just 3 HR's. Yanks have had no success against Trevor Bauer either, at 33-139, with just 2 HR's. Bull pens likely in early at first sign of trouble, and both can dominate. Make the play on the under.

You have to respect both teams ability to score runs in this game, as both Houston and Boston are good at getting runs across the plate. That has not been quite the case with the starters on the hill for the opener. Justin Verlander has  outstanding career numbers vs the current Sox line up, as he has allowed just 55 hits in 171 at bats against him for a .205 average. Moreover, he has served up 0 HR's to the Sox in those 171 at bats. Houston hasnot done a whole lot vs Chris Sale with just 24 hits in 115 at bats, and the powerhouse lineup has touched him up for just 3 HR's. Both solid in the back of the pen, runs look tough to come by here. Make the play on the under.

The NY Giant offense is a total mess, and not up to speed with typical NFL standards. Outside of a breakout 4th quarter against Philadelphia, through 3 quarters of play in their 3 games they are averaging 4.3ppg. Overall on the season they average just 12.3ppg. There troubles didn`t start this season, as they failed to score 20 points in each of their last 6 games in 2016, and have now scored a woeful 129 points in their last 9 games, at 14.3ppg, and Giant`s games have now averaged 37.6ppg in their last 20 played. The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, and are 6-2-1 to the under over their last 9 games. This game fits several under indicators that are 25-3,23-6-1, and 21-58. Make the play on the under.

The Arizona Cardinals opened their game vs Dallas on Monday Night, looking like a team that was ready to play. Dallas only managed to get 3 snaps the entire 1st quarter. The problem was, as dominate as they looked in the opening period, they looked ordinary from that point on. This team seems to lack intensity, and focus, as they take on the San Francisco 49ers this week. The Niners offense through 2 games was as inept as ever, managing just 12 total points, but they came to life vs the Rams in a tough 41-39 loss. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 308 yards in that one, and in his 16 starts in the NFL as a road dog, his team is 10-6 to the over. Carson Palmer has no running game with David Johnson out for the year, so it is no surprise the cards have averaged 44 pass attempts per contest. This game fits a match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS mark to the over, with more supportive strong situations as well. Make the play on the over.

Sometimes the light goes on for a QB, in year one, year two, year three, or sometimes not at all. The coaching changes, and new offense for the Rams has been taken on by QB Jered Goff. Goff was a `can`t miss` prospect that really struggled last year, but he has really awaken, and starting to pay dividends for the Rams. Goff has a 118 passer rating through 3 games, and the Rams are averaging 35.7ppg. The Rams offense has produced 40 points twice in three games, and to give that some perspective, they managed 40 just 3 times since December of 2006. The Rams are 2-1, and this is their biggest game in quite some time, as a win legitimizes them as a playoff contender. Dallas has not looked the same this season, and they have a lot of new parts in the secondary, that I think Goff will be able to exploit. This is another match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS totals indicator, and it has me backing the over.