Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-11 | Colorado Avalanche v. San Jose Sharks -193 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. The Sharks should be extremely hungry here. Not only have they lost three straight (and five of six) but their most recent loss came at the hands of these same Avs. That (shootout) loss came at Colorado though, while tonight's rematch is at San Jose. That's significant as the Sharks are 4-0 the last four times that they were a host in this series, going 8-1 the last nine. Going back further finds the Sharks at 14-4 their last 18 home games in the series. While tonight's price is obviously on the "steep" side, note that the Sharks were laying a minimum of -250 each of the last four times that they hosted the Avs. So, the line could easily be much higher. Note that the Sharks won the last three meetings with the Avs here by a combined score of 11-1! Back home off a 3-game trip, note that the Sharks are an outstanding 22-11 (+6.6) the past few seasons, after having played three straight on the road. This is still a very talented and well-coached Sharks team. Playing with immediate "revenge," I expect them to elevate their game and come away with the important two points. *6
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12-13-11 | Calgary Flames v. Nashville Predators -145 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NASHVILLE. The Flames have won three straight. Those victories all came against teams which are arguably weaker than this one though. "Stepping up in class" to face what should be a very determined Nashville club, I expect Calgary's win streak to come to an end here. Note that the Flames are just 9-13 (-7.5) the past couple of seasons, when off three or more victories. While the Flames have certainly enjoyed overall success in this series, it should be noted that there's a flu bug going around their locker-room and that one of the players currently affected is forward Alex Tanguay,who leads the team in assists. A look at the earlier meetings (both at Calgary) shows that the Predators won the first (2-0 on 10/22) while the Flames bounced back with a 1-0 win in the late November rematch. That puts the Preds in the "revenge" role, which is one of their best. Indeed, Nashville is an outstanding 60-38 (+30.2!) the past few seasons, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. Like the Flames, the Preds have started to play well. They've won two in a row and are now 20-14 (+6.5) in December the past few seasons. The Preds are healthier and I expect them to also be "hungrier," earning a rare victory in this series and improving on their highly impressive stats when playing in the "revenge role." *7
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12-13-11 | NY Islanders v. Montreal Canadiens -150 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on MONTREAL. The Canadiens got back on track in their last game, a 2-1 victory over the Devils. Playing with 'revenge' and facing a team which they have dominated here, I expect them to make it two in a row tonight. Note that the Canadiens recently traded for defenseman Tomas Caberle and that he set up both goals against the Devils. As coach Martin said of Kaberle: "He's an experienced defenseman whose strength has always been quarterbacking the power play. He has good vision on the power play." Its true that the Canadiens don't typically score too many goals. They're averaging only 2.5 per game, 2.7 here in Montreal. However, they don't allow many either, as opposing teams are managing only 2.6 against them. The Isles score even less goals, the fewest in the entire league. They're averaging 2.3 per game. The difference between them and the Canadiens is that the Isles also allow far more. They're allowing 3.3 goals per game, including a whopping 3.8 on the road. The Isles have actually won three in a row in this series, which should provide the Habs with a ton of motivation. Note that the Isles haven't beaten Montreal four straight times since the early 90s though. Also, note that only one of those games came here at Montreal. The Canaidens are still a commanding 14-5 the last 19 times that they were a host in the series. They were laying -200 the last meeting here and a minimum of -200 in six of the last eight meetings here. While still fairly heavily favored, tonight's price is far more reasonable. I expect the "new look" Habs to have their revenge. *7
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12-11-11 | Florida Panthers v. New York Rangers -139 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. While still favored, the fact that the Rangers played last night is helping to keep this price somewhat reasonable. Indeed, the Rangers were laying -200 the last time (3/22/2011) that they were a host in this series. They won that one by a score of 1-0. While I successfully played against the Panthers (Florida lost 2-1) in their last game, due in part to the fact that they were playing the second of b2b games, I'm not concerned that the Rangers are doing so. Florida was winless in b2b situations this season, having been dominated the first two times it was in that spot. The Rangers, on the other hand, beat the Flyers 2-0 the last time they were in a b2b spot. The previous time that they played the second of b2b games, the Rangers also delivered a shutout, blanking Winnipeg by a score of 3-0. (The only time that they didn't win the second of b2b games was when they played in Europe.) Off their 2-1 loss, note that the Panthers are a dismal 17-33 (-13.6) the last 50 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. The Panthers are 5-9 (-4.4) their last 14 Sunday games. The Rangers, on the other hand, play far more Sunday games and tend to have a lot more success. During the same stretch, they're 15-10 (+4.4) in their "Sunday games." The Rangers are already a perfect 4-0 when playing a home game with an O/U line of five this season. Looking to avenge an earlier loss at Florida, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. *8
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