I'm playing on LA. I know it makes for a better story for Tampa to win this game. That would set up an epic Game 7 showdown between Buehler and Morton. Its not happening though. Not in my opinion. Yes, I did successfully back the Rays in the previous Snell/Gonsolin matchup. Yes, Snell outpitched and outlasted Gonsolin in that one. The second part of that sentence, the 'outlasted' part, actually works against Snell here though. The Dodger hitters, who are better than the Tampa hitters to begin with, got a longer look at Snell than the Tampa hitters got at Gonsolin. Eventually, they started to really like what they saw, too. Snell cruised through the first 4 2/3 innings. However, these LA hitters are really good and once they started becoming familiar with him, they started hitting him. Snell would allow four straight batters to reach base before getting the hook. Now, seeing him for the second time in less than a week, the Dodgers figure to be more 'dialed in' right from the first time through the lineup. Remember, Gonsolin actually had better numbers than Snell, during the reg. season. The Dodgers have faith him in for a reason. Sure, its a nice luxury to know you've got Buehler ready to go for Game 7. The Dodgers don't want to go there though. They want to end this right here, right now. They're 41-19 their last 60, when playing with a day off in between games. The drought is over, Dodger fans. LA wins. 

I'm playing on the Rays/Dodgers UNDER the total. While I won with the Dodgers, the total was tough to take. The game was still below the number with two outs and two strikes - and nobody on base - in the bottom of the 9th. Its a new game though and each game needs to be looked at with unbiased eyes. In this case, I believe the O/U line, higher than it was yesterday, is generously high. Urias has been a beast, no matter what role he's asked to perform. He's 4-0 with a dominant 0.56 ERA in the playoffs, thus far, striking out 16 in 16 innings. Yarbrough has been respectable, in his own right. In six career postseason appearances, he now has a 2.63 ERA. Last night's late home run notwithstanding, both bullpens remain highly capable. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on LA/TB UNDER the total. The first two games featured a Cy Young award winner for one team against a less experienced starter for the other. Game 3, however, is different. We've got two legit starters, both capable of rising to the occasion with a dominant effort. Buehler has a 1.89 ERA through four playoff starts, striking out 29 in 19 innings. He's pitched in the WS before (Game 3 against Boston) and tossed seven shutout innings. Not to be outdone, Morton is now 5-0 with a masterful 0.70 ERA in five playoff starts for Tampa. That includes a 0.57 mark in three starts so far these playoffs. Like Buehler, he's been here before. In fact, he got the final out in Game 7 (2017) against these same Dodgers. The off day Thursday gives the bullpens a break. Expect the lowest scoring game of the series.

I'm playing on Tampa/LA UNDER the total. We saw a little bit of everything in the previous games here at Globe Life Field. Still, the park played "big" and favors the pitchers more than saw of the other ballparks where these playoff games have been played. With a Game 1 showdown expected to feature Kershaw and Glasnow, I expect runs to be at a premium in Tuesday's opener. While both teams can obviously hit, they're also both here due to playing great defense, something which often goes unmentioned. With 25 K's in 19 1/3 playoff innings, Glasnow is absolutely capable of dominating. Kershaw is going to be absolutely determined for a huge game. He was bothered by the wind last time and ultimately charged with four runs. However, he was still pitching well (allowed 1 run through first five innings) before being hurt by a throwing error and an infield hit, which led to him being charged with four runs. The future Hall-Of-Famer is coming in here with a chip on his shoulder; the bullpen finally got a much needed day off on Monday. Speaking of bullpens, the Rays are here in large part due to theirs. They're refreshed and ready to go if/when needed. It all adds up to a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/LA UNDER the total. After a few high-scoring games, Game 6 was of the low-scoring variety. I expect to see more quality pitching and defense in tonight's Winner-Take-All affair.  Anderson may be young but he's also got a 0.00 ERA in three playoff starts. Overall, he's 5-2 with a 1.31 ERA through nine starts, the UNDER going 5-2-2. Whether or not he starts - or the Dodgers go with an opener before using him - Gonsolin is expected to get a good share of the innings. He's got a 2.74 ERA and a sparkling 0.826 WHIP through nine starts, the UNDER going 6-2-1. Of course, its all hands on deck for a Game 7 - both managers will do whatever it takes to try and prevent the other team from scoring. Expect runs to be at a premium. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. While they've dropped three in a row, the Rays are still in a good spot. They've got Morton on the mound and they're one game away from the World Series. Morton threw five shutout innings in Monday's Game 2 win and the veteran has experience in this situation. In fact, his last Game 7 appearance, Morton recorded the final out of the Astros' World Series championship in 2017. Of course, he's got a loaded Tampa bullpen ready to support him. With the exception of Snell, yesterday's starter, in a game of this magnitude, its all hands on deck for everyone else. While McClullers also has Game 7 experience, he's got a 4.09 ERA in these playoffs compared to Morton's 0.90 ERA. I say Tampa digs deep and gets it done. 

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. I said it out loud seconds before Correa got the game-winning HR last night - "don't let this guy beat you ..." While that was costly, I'm coming right back with the Rays today. Snell hasn't been dominant in the playoffs but he has been solid. He's got a 2.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through three starts. The former Cy Young winner now has a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for his career in the postseason. Note that Snell has a 1.80 ERA in his lone "day" start in these playoffs and that his ERA was considerably lower than his night ERA, during the regular season. With his team needing him most and a spot in the World Series on the line, I expect him to come through with a gem. To his credit, Valdez has been sharp. However, while the Astros were familiar with Snell, the Rays had never previously seen Valdez and that worked in his favor in Game 1. (Tampa still won.) Now, they're seeing him for the second time in less than a week. I expect them to have some better swings. While Tampa used four pitchers yesterday, Houston used seven. I say the Rays close the deal.

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Astros won the World Series in 2017. They went to the World Series in 2019. Many of those pieces remain on this year's team. They weren't going to go down without a fight. We saw that yesterday. Greinke, their former Cy Young winner, turned back the clock and the Astros gutted out a series-extending victory. While that salvaged some pride for Greinke. Altuve and the team, they're not coming all the way back. They don't have a Cy Young winner on the mound today. The Rays have been a far better team all season and in this series. They've played superior defense and that's been a factor. The Astros are 15-17 off a win and 14-13 in day games. The Rays, on the other hand, are 17-6 off a loss and 16-7 in day games. Tampa wins. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. After a low-scoring opener, yesterday's game saw 15 runs scored. I'm expecting better pitching in this one. The ballpark is still "big," yet we're working with a generously high total. Wright's career numbers aren't too impressive but he tossed six shutout innings in Atlanta's final game of the NLDS, striking out seven along the way. Urias doesn't get too many starts. However, I expect him to be up to the task. Through eight playoff innings so far, he's got a 0.00 ERA and 0.63 WHIP, recording 11 K's. It doesn't get better than that. This will mark his 15th career playoff appearance. So, he's got plenty of postseason experience. Look for the park to play a factor and for the final combined score to stay in the "single-digits."

I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. I was all set to pull the trigger on Kerhaw in this one. That was in large part to the fact that I expected the future Hall-Of-Famer to pitch a great game. But it was also due to the fact that I don't believe that the Dodgers will go down 0-2. Now, with Gonsolin going instead, I still expect the Dodgers to get strong pitching and I still expect them to avoid going down 0-2. Gonsolin, to his credit, had a stellar 2.31 ERA and 0.84 WHIP this season. He also pitched well in his lone start vs. the Braves, allowing one run through four innings in a game last year. The Dodgers are 14-4 off a loss. I say they improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. These are the two best teams in the NL. Both are good at both hitting and pitching. Naturally, we've got a couple of elite starters going in the opener. Fried was 7-0 (Braves were 11-1) with a 2.25 ERA in 12 starts this season. He's 26-11 with a 3.52 ERA for his career. Buehler is 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for his career. In eight postseason starts, he's got a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Both bullpens have been strong and both are coming in fresh. With this series being played at Globe Life Field, the Rangers' new stadium, its important to mention the ballpark. That's because balls are not exactly "flying out" of there. Not by a longshot. As LA manager Dave Roberts noted, after having played here in the NLDS, "Um, it played big. We hit some balls that could have been homers in a lot of ballparks ... " Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. While the Astros have been playing with a chip on their shoulder, they're stepping up in class here. Tampa was the far better team all season. The Rays were fortunate to get a day off yesterday, after leaving it all on the field in beating NY. Note that they're 10-1 when playing with a day off. The Rays are also 14-7 in days games, for what its worth. While I respect Valdez, Snell, a former Cy Young Award winner, gives the Rays an advantage in the starting pitching department. He's got plenty of postseason experience, posting a solid 2.81 ERA in six appearances, four starts and he's got a score to settle with these Astros. Of course, even after a lot of innings against NY, the Rays still also have a big edge in the bullpen. This is a strong Tampa team which has had a great season. Expect a Game 1 victory. 

I'm playing on NY/TB UNDER the total. I really think highly of both tonight's starters. I backed the Yankees when Cole started Game 1 and I backed the Rays when Glasnow started Game 2. Now, with the two opposing each other, I'm expecting a pitcher's duel. Its true that neither starter was dominant last time out, leading to both those first two games finishing above the total. Thats actually worked in our favor though, as this O/U line could easily be even lower than it is. Also, a closer look at the stats shows that both starters were actually pretty good- they just made a few bad pitches along the way. Cole struck out eight Tampa hitters, allowing three runs in six innings. Glasnow, meanwhile, struck out 10 Yankee hitters in five innings. So, neither had a problem "dominating" hitters. While sometimes overlooked, that strikeout ability is important, as it allows them to get out of problem situations with minimal or no damage. True, Glasnow is on really short rest. He had this to say about that: "I'll be fine," he said. "As far as, like, health goes, I feel really good, so I'm ready to go. ... I was in the 'pen today. I was ready to come out today, too." Keep in mind that the Rays do have Snell and co. ready to go, if/when needeed. With the stakes higher than ever and both starters fired up to be opposing each other, expect runs to be very hard to come by in this one. 

I'm playing MIAMI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Many people have been counting out the Marlins since before the season started. Even fans and believers had to question the team after they got hit by Covid early in the season. But this team never listened and never quit. They continued to silence the critics and continued to fight. Now, they probably have dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of, against a very good Braves' team. However, don't tell them that. Like always, Mattingly's team will not go down without putting up a fight. In the first two games, the Marlins were at a disadvantage in the starting pitching department, at least on paper. Alcantara was really good but he was matched up against Fried, one of the top pitchers in the game. Yesterday, they had Lopez making his first playoff start against Anderson, who had already just thrown a masterpiece, the Wildcard Rd. The shoe is on the other foot this afternoon though. This time, its Miami's Sanchez who comes off a gem in the Wildcard Rd, taking on Atlanta's Wright, who hasn't pitched since 9/25. Note that Wright is 2-7 for his career with a 6.22 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. As for Sanchez, he quietly had a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season and comes in full of confidence, after dominating the Cubs. With the Braves favored on the money-line, we're able to get the extra +1.5 runs with the Marlins for a very reasonable price. Expect AT LEAST a "run line cover." 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The A's are clearly going to be desperate. While they weren't able to bounce back yesterday, this is still a very resilient team. I fully expect their best effort. Luzardo didn't fare too well against the White Sox. However, southpaws rarely do. I'm confident that he'll fare better against a Houston team which he pitched very well against both previous times. Yes, the A's won both of Luzardo's starts against the Astros, 3-2 last month and 7-2 in August. Luzardo was solid in both, allowing four runs in 12 2/3 combined innings. Even factoring in the 4-1 loss to Chicago in the Wildcard Rd, the A's were still 6-4 in Luzardo's starts. Four of the 10, including two of the losses, came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-2 if getting +1.5 in each of Luzardo's starts. The Astros, on the other hand, were just 3-3 when Urquidy started. Three of the six were decided by a single run, including two of the past three. The A's won when Urquidy started against them on 9/10. Expect AT LEAST another "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on NY. You may have heard the stat that team which hit more home runs than their opponent were a perfect 12-0 in the Wildcard Round. With seven home runs, its no surprise that the Yankees were 2-0. Overall, they scored 22 runs in their two games against Cleveland. Combine that potent offense with Gerritt Cole on the mound and the Yankees are very tough to beat. Snell, of course, is no slouch. However, he's no Cole either. At least, not in my opinion. After Cole, the Yankees' starters aren't as good. Meanwhile, the Rays' don't suffer much of a dropoff, as Glasnow and Morton are both solid. In other words, the Yankees really need to win when Cole is on the mound. These same starters have opposed each other once, previously. That game happened to be exactly one year ago, to the day. Cole's team (Houston) won that 10/5/19 game by a score of 3-1. Cole outlasted and outpitched Snell on that day, delivering 15 K's through 7 2/3 shutout winnings. I say history repeats itself, Cole's team again finishing on top. 

I'm playing on SD/STL UNDER the total. While the bats have reigned supreme so far in this series, I expect to see improved pitching in this evening's 'winner take all' finale. Flaherty quietly misses more bats than almost any pitcher in the league. In fact, with a 34.5% whiff-per-swing rate, he rates third in the NL in that category. Only deGrom and Burnes were better. Note that Flaherty has allowed one earned run or less in all three career starts vs. the Padres, posting a 1.10 ERA. Not surprisingly, all three of those games finished with less than nine combined runs. While the Padres' are indeed dealing with a depleted pitching staff, as manager Tingler noted: "My guess is we’re going to get a great effort from whomever we use, and it will be a number of guys. The bullpen has been prepared and ready. They kept us in the game." 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Atlanta UNDER the total. Given the quality of these starting pitchers, this is a generous O/U line. Bauer, who has a fair amount of postseason experience, has been brilliant all season. He led the National League with a 1.73 ERA. He had a dominant 0.795 WHIP to go along with that ERA. On the road, averaging nearly seven innings, his ERA dipped to 1.32, his WHIP falling to 0.706. Last time out, his team needing him, Bauer struck out 12 Brewers, allowing just one run through eight innings. Fried, who has some postseaon experience (out of the bullpen) is the ace of the Braves staff. He checks in with a perfect 7-0 record, a stellar 2.25 ERA. He returned from injury only to tweak his ankle. However, he's reportedly good to go, having made it through a bullpen session. He limited the Reds to a single run, through six complete innings, in a 4-1 Atlanta win, the lone time he faced them. I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. After backing the Reds in Monday's opener, I played on the Brewers yesterday. For today's series finale, I'm coming back with the Reds. Bauer is in simply outstanding form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.29 ERA and a 0.714 WHIP. In that 21-inning span, he recorded 27 K's against just three walks. Nothing new for Bauer; he's been getting it done all season. Through 10 starts, averaging 6.5 innings per, he's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. Clearly, he's deserving of a much better record than he has. The same cannot be said for Houser. He's 1-5 with a 5.33 ERA. Over his past three starts, he's got a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP, averaging just 4.3 innings. Look for Bauer to get the better of Houser in this one, the Reds getting the important "W."

I'm playing on SF. These teams are both mathematically still alive for the Wildcard. However, even with a few recent wins, the Rockies know that its probably not happening for them. That's particularly true without Arenado in their lineup. The Giants' hopes are slightly better but they know yesterday's loss was costly. Cueto, their opening day starter, let them down. Determined to bounce back, I expect a much better effort. The Giants have won each of Smyly's last three starts and they hit Freeland hard earlier this month. They've had success against southpaw starters and they're still 18-8 against sub-500 teams. Expect them to improve on those stats with an important victory. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a big game for both teams; I expect the Reds to have the advantage. These same starters opposed each other last month, at Milwaukee. Woodruff and Brewers came out on top that day. When he's on, Castillo can be nasty. That's noteworthy as Casttillo is currently in much better form than he was prior to last month's meeting. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings in a 1-0 win, striking out 10. He retired nine of the final 10 batters he faced and allowed just three hits overall. In his previous start, Castillo tossed a complete game in a 3-1 win over the Cards. After the 1-0 win, Reds manager David Bell said: “He backed up his last start, He couldn’t get much better than that, but to be able to back that up was huge for us.” Woodruff has gone five innings or less in each of his last three road starts. The Brewers are 0-2 his last two on the road. Look for Castillo to continue his strong recent pitching, the Reds drawing first blood in this important series. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While they want to keep winning, the Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot. The Rockies, on the other hand, are desperate. Their playoff hopes are dwindling and they simply can't afford to keep losing. I like their chances in this one. Freeland has a respectable 4.22 ERA in six home starts. Meanwhile, Urias has a 5.40 ERA and poor 1.714 WHIP on the road. The Rockies have already seen him this month, Urias allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings. That was a 1-run game, won by the Rockies. Desperate for a victory, expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing on LA. While the Angels are fairly heavy favorites, given the matchup, I believe that the line could easily be much higher. Bundy is in outstanding form. Last time out, he recorded 12 K's against just one walk, allowing only two runs and four hits, while going 7 1/3 innings. In his previous start, he also went seven innings, again allowing two runs. That time, he struck out eight while walking one. He's allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and in six of seven. On the season, through nine starts, he's got a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.914 WHIP, averaging 6.4 innings per start. Not surprisingly, the Angels have won each of Bundy's last three starts. They provided him with 28 total runs in those games and he should get solid support once again. Smith has only made two starts, one in July and one on 9/11. He went only three innings each time out, walking six in his lone road start. With Smith not likely to last long, we'll see an Arizona bullpen which entered the series with a 5.44 ERA and 1.744 WHIP on the road. Expect Bundy to outpitch and outlast Smith, the Angels winning in convincing fashion. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like Chicago's chances of winning this one 'outright,' in a game which could well be close, I'm happy to improve my chances even further and grab the extra +1.5 runs. Cease keeps the Sox in the game every time out. In fact, since allowing four runs in his first start back in July, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight starts, two or less in seven of those. Overall, Chicago is 5-4 in his starts. However, a closer look shows that three of those four losses came by a single run. In other words, one would be 8-1 if getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Sox in each of Cease's starts. In three home starts, Cease has a stellar 1.72 ERA. While Berrios can be tough at times, he's got a poor 6.75 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in four road starts. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' from Cease and the Sox. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I expect the Rangers to win this one outright but am happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs to improve my/their chances even further. Lynn was extremely sharp last time out. Through seven innings, he limited the Angels to one run on four hits. He's gone a minimum of six innings in nine of 10 starts, going five in the other. Off yesterday's double-header, Lynn's ability to provide innings is even more important. Overall, he's averaged 6.4 innings per start. Montas, on the other hand, averages 4.8 innings per start, 4.3 innings per road start. Lynn has a 2.52 ERA and 0.979 WHIP on the season. At home, his ERA dips to 2.00. Montas has a 5.73 ERA and in four road starts, he's got a horrible 9.00 ERA and 1.941 WHIP. Grab the extra +1.5 runs with Lynn and the Rangers.

I'm playing on COLORADO. I successfully played on the Angels yesterday. However, LA had Bundy on the mound and was up against Gibson and the Rangers. There's no Bundy today and now they're at Coors, facing Marquez. I feel that this will prove to be a far more difficult task. Canning and Bundy actually have very similar stats. Canning has a 4.54 ERA and 1.361 WHIP. Marquez has a 4.58 ERA and 1.345 WHIP. However, those numbers don't take into account the fact that this will be the fifth time that Marquez has had to pitch here at Colorado. Despite his difficult home park, Marquez still averages six innings per start here. Canning averages only 4 1/3 innnings per road start. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Angels have struggled on the road. They've also had trouble against NL teams. Desperate to snap their skid, look for the Rockies to move to 46-26 the past 2+ seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. After getting blown out yesterday and having dropped the first two games in the series, the Braves will be all business in this one. Milone gets the call for the Braves and he's been much better (3.79 ERA) at home. While he didn't go that deep, Milone got on track last time out, allowing just one run. He struck out three without walking a batter. Atlanta won 7-1. Lopez, on the other hand, allowed five runs in four innings, in his last start. With the Marlins just 4-9 vs. southpaws, 34-59 the past 2+ seasons, I say the Braves bounce back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. This line opened in the pick'em range but I feel that the A's easily could be favored. Both starters have similar stats. Fiers has a 4.86 ERA and 1.432 WHIP. Richards has a 4.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. However, a closer look reveals that Fiers is actually in much better current form. Over his past three starts, Fiers has a 2.60 ERA. Richards, on the other hand, has a horrible 9.94 ERA over his past three starts. As for the relief pitching, here's an excerpt from yesterday's writeup on these same A's: "... Meanwhile, the SB bullpen has a 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP away from Petco, converting on 55.6% of save chances. That doesn't compare favorably to the A's pen. Oakland relievers have a combined 1.53 ERA (0.97 WHIP) at home, converting on 88.9% of save tries. The A's are 81-51 in day games the past few seasons, 10-5 this year..." Expect Oakland to continue its afternoon success here. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Pittsburgh OVER the total. We should see plenty of offense in this one. These same two starters opposed each other a few weeks ago and the teams combined for 15 runs. Desclafani checks in with a 7.71 ERA. Last time out, he gave up seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, walking more than he struck out. Williams (1-5, 5.50 ERA) was a little better but far from good. In four innings, he gave up five runs, three of them earned. Both those games hit double-digits in total runs. Willams now has a 7.71 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. The Cincy bullpen has a 5.21 ERA on the road while the Pitt bullpen has a 5.30 ERA at home. Look for this one to reach double-digits, one again. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Angels cooled down the Padre bats last night. I successfully backed Heaney for the second straight start; he tossed seven shutout innings, limiting SD to three hits. Heaney noted: ''They have a real good lineup but they have a lot of guys who haven't faced me..." Tonight, the Padres will face another pitcher who they are unfamiliar with. The A's are 3-0 when Luzardo starts at home. Luzardo is 2-0 with a sparkling 1.06 ERA in those games. He's also got the support of an Oakland bullpen which has a combined 1.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP here at home. By comparison, SD relievers have an ERA above five away from Petco. The A's have been excellent at home. They're well rested and I expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing LA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) With the Padres favored on the moneyline, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Angels for a very reasonable price. While I like the Angels' chances of the outright win, I'm also happy to increase my chances of winning by utilizing the run-line. The Padres pulled away for a big win yesterday. I expect a much better effort from the Angels this evening. LA, which has now dropped three in a row, is 4-2 after three or more losses this season. I successfully played on the Angels last time Heaney pitched, stating the following: "...I believe that Heaney is better than his numbers indicate. The M's probably feel the same way as Heaney limited them to one run on only three hits, through 5 2/3 innings, the last time he started against them..." Heaney made me look good as he delivered a dominant effort. Through 7 2/3 innings, he allowed just four hits and one run, while striking out 10. I look for Heaney, who has seen two of his last three starts have decided by a single run, to give us more quality tonight. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Things haven't gone as planned for the Reds of late but I expect that to change here. While I lost with them yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. Mahle has a stellar 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in three home starts. Oviedo, on the other hand, makes his first road start. In his two home starts, he has yet to go more than five innings. While Mahle struggled a bit at St. Louis a couple of starts ago, he bounced back with a dominant effort last time out. Through 6 2/3 innings, he limited the Cubs to two hits while striking out 11. Expect the Reds to bounce back. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cards took yesterday's game but I expect the Reds to bounce back today. Gray is 5-1 with a superb 1.91 ERA. At home, averaging better than six innings per start, he's 4-0 with an even better 1.07 ERA to go along with an outstanding 0.75 WHIP. On the other hand, Kim has a 1.635 WHIP to show for his lone road start. The Reds hoped to be a lot better and I still believe that they're a stronger team than their record indicates. Behind another quality effort from Gray, expect them to bounce back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on Clev/KC OVER the total. These starters boast some pretty impressive numbers which is why we're working with such a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keller came back down to earth last time out, as he allowed five runs in four innings. He gave up six hits and walked three; nine baserunners in four innings. Bieber, to his credit, turned in another quality start last time out, allowing two runs through six innings. He did give up four hits and walked three though. Good but not perfect. He's made six career starts vs. KC and five of them have finished with double-digits in total runs, four finishing with 14 or more. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on the NY YANKEES. After getting swept in yesterday's double-header, the Yankees have now lost seven straight for the first time since June of 2017. Expect them to stop the bleeding right here. The Yanks haven't lost eight in a row this entire millennium. Happ was sharp last time out and is ready to go. Last time out, he allowed just three hits and a single run, through 5 1/3 innings. He had this to say: "I know I'm healthy and have been healthy and ready to pitch since what would have been (the start of) the regular season and since summer camp and the start of the abbreviated season I've been ready to go in all those cases with no issues." He's 4-2 for his career against the Mets. Expect him to do enough and for the Yankee bats to come alive, the skid finally coming to an end. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Both teams could badly use a win but I believe the Rockies will be the team which gets it. Marquez had a bad game last time out. However, that was against Houston and it was at Colorado. He's still a quality pitcher and he's going to be hungry to get back on track. Keep in mind that he's got a dominant 1.93 ERA (0.911 WHIP) in three road starts, averaging more than six innings in those games. Young, on the other hand, has made only two starts (4.32 ERA) and he's averaging just four innings per. Colorado relievers have a 2.31 ERA away from Coors. The Rockies are 5-1 in Marquez's last six starts vs. Arizona. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) I've successfully played against the Rangers during their current skid. However, with Lynn on the mound, I expect them to stop the bleeding today. Getting an extra +1.5 runs, in what could be a close game, improves our chances even further. All Lynn has done this season is post a 1.37 ERA and 0.814 WHIP. In three home starts, his ERA dips to a remarkable 1.06, Lynn allowing just two earned runs through 17 innings. On the other hand, Luzardo allowed six earned runs in three 1/3 innings, in his lone road start, good for an awful 16.22 ERA. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from Lynn and the Rangers. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Many will see the Twins favored like this, on the road, and wonder who this Randy Dobnak guy is. That very fact, that he is still relatively unknown, is actually whats preventing this line from even higher. Through five starts, Dobnak has a spectacular 1.42 ERA and 0.869 WHIP. In two road starts, his ERA dips to a microscopic 1.20. Singer, on the other hand, has a 4.56 ERA. Over his last three starts, that ERA climbs to 5.16. Dobnak and the Twins got the better of Singer and the Royals, at Minnesota, less than a week ago. Playing at KC, we're able to get the Twins at a lower price than we were for that one. Dobnak, of course, is backed by the better lineup. The Twins entered Friday with a 100-66 record against divisional opponents the past couple of seasons. During that span, KC is 74-95 within the division. With the Royals just 23-37 their last 60 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range, I say that Dobnak and the Twins win again. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the M's to win outright, given that they lost 2-1 last time Margevicius pitched, getting an extra +1.5 runs may prove helpful. Yesterday, I played against the M's, laying -1.5 runs with their opponent. That was Kershaw and the Dodgers though, which is a far cry from Allard and the Rangers. Allard has a 5.25 ERA, an ugly 9.00 ERA in two road starts. He's backed by a Ranger bullpen which has really struggled on the road. On the other hand, Margevicius has a sparkling 1.93 ERA to go along with a 0.857 WHIP. M's bounce back with AT LEAST a "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on COLORADO. Off three straight losses, the Rockies will be happy to have Marquez on the mound. Their ace has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 1.094 WHIP on the season and that includes a 2.70 ERA here at Coors, where he averages a healthy 6.5 innings per start. Javier, on the other hand, has a 6.00 ERA on the road, averaging only 4.5 innings. Therefore, its worth noting that the Houston bullpen has a combined 5.01 ERA and a terrible 1.98 WHIP on the road thus far, converting just one of four save tries. Look for Marquez to outpitch and outlast Javier, the Rockies bouncing back and improving to 7-3 in day games. 

I'm playing on NY/Miami UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, we should see the pitcher's take center stage in this one. The Mets have their b2b Cy Young Award winner on the mound. On the season, deGrom has a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP. The Marlins counter with Lopez, who also has excellent stats. In fact, his 2.25 ERA is even lower than deGrom's. He's allowed just four runs through his three starts, two or less in each. Not to be outdone, over his past eight starts, dating back to last season, deGrom has allowed a combined seven earned runs, two or less in every one of them and 0 in half. These two starters opposed each other on Aug. 9th, at NY. That one finished with a final score of 4-2. Given that Lopez has historically pitched much better at home, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The Diamondbacks took yesterday's game but the A's will have a significant advantage today. Montas has been superb. Through three starts, he's got a sparkling 1.57 ERA. Last time out, he limited the Astros to just two hits through seven shutout innings. In his previous start, he allowed just four hits and one run, once again going seven complete innings. He recorded 14 combined K's in the 14 innings, too. Weaver, on the other hand, has failed to go more than four innings in any of his four starts. He's 0-3 with a terrible 11.86 ERA. At home, his ERA climbs to an obscene 13.50 to go along with a 2.50 WHIP. Ugly. Yes, the sample size is limited. But Montas is clearly in better form. Oakland also has the edge in the bullpen as its relievers have a combined 2.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting 83% of save opportunites. Arizona relievers, meanwhile, have a combined 5.00 ERA 1.46 WHIP, converting on 54% of save chances. The A's are 82-52 off a loss the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on SD. The Padres lost a tough one yesterday but I expect them to bounce back and start their series against the Rangers with a victory. While I successfully played against the Padres last time that Davies started, that was against the Dodgers. To his credit, Davies pitched very well. In fact, he allowed just four hits and two runs through seven complete innings. Despite playing some tough opponents (Dodgers) and at some difficult parks (Colorado) Davies has a stellar 2.78 ERA and 0.838 WHIP through his first four starts. Lyles, on the other hand, has an ugly 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The Padres badly need to stop the bleeding if they want to remain relevant in the NL West. Expect them to bounce back with an important win.  

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cards returned to play and took both games in yesterday's double-header. Also, Hudson and the Cards won when these two starters matched up against each other last October, when Keuchel was with the Braves. This afternoon, both Keuchel and the Sox get some payback. Keuchel continues to produce quality. Last time out, he allowed three earned runs in six innnings. In his previous three starts this season, he allowed two, two and one earned run. In two home starts, he's got a stellar 2.19 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Since last season, including the loss against Hudson, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. Speaking of Hudson, due to the Cards long layoff, he's only made one start and his rhythm is likely to be off. That one start was was back on 7/26, against the lowly Pirates, and it did NOT go well. In just four innings, he allowed seven hits, two of them leaving the yard. Sox bounce back. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. With Lynn on the mound, the Rangers got good pitching yesterday and were able to eke out a 3-2 victory. Today, however, the Rockies will have a significant edge in the starting pitching department. Through four starts, Marquez has a superb 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. He's the real deal. Gibson, on the other hand, has a 4.11 ERA and 1.566 WHIP. The Rockies are 44-25 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Rangers were  24-50 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Expect Marquez to outpitch and outlast Gibson, en route to another Colorado victory here. 

I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I expect the Rockies to win this one outright. However, if they're going to give me an extra +1.5 runs at this reasonable a price - given the current form of Lynn - I'm happy to grab them. Lynn started to come back to earth a little last time out; through five innings, he allowed two earned runs while giving up four hits (1 HR) and walking three batters. Lynn lost 8-4 the last time that he started at Colorado. Though he didn't go deep, Castellani was excellent (0 hits!) in his debut as he and the Colorado relievers combined for a 1-hitter. He faced 12 batters and he retired them all. Texas relievers have an ugly 8.84 ERA and 1.96 combined WHIP on the road. Rockies earn AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA/SD to finish OVER the total. I waited patiently for this line to drop from 8.5 to 8 and it finally did. Now, with all due respect to the starters, I feel that the number is too low. Yes, Paddack can be tough. However, the Dodgers just saw him recently at Petco; that game finishing with nine combined runs. The last time Paddack pitched at LA, the game produced 21 runs, an 11-10 final. Paddack gave up six runs in four innings. Urias' last two games finished with nine and 13 combined runs. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, too.

I'm playing on LA. With Gonsolin now in the for the Dodgers, we're getting a better price than we would have otherwise. There's nothing wrong with Gonsolin though. In fact, he allowed 0 earned runs and just a single hit, through four innings, in his lone 'spot' start. In his last six starts, since last season, he has allowed just five combined earned runs through 28 complete innings. With Gonsolin unlikely to stick around too long, note that the Dodger bullpen has a stellar a 1.31 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At home, that WHIP dips to 0.81. The Padres, 8-15 the past few seasons, after having won their previous three, send Davies to the mound. Like Gonsolin, he's unlikely to "go the distance." Unlike Gonsolin, he's backed by a SD bullpen which has a combined 5.80 ERA on the road. Dodgers bounce back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHILA. The Phillies' bats came to life in a big way yesterday. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. While they gained yesterday, the Phillies know they still have plenty of work to do in the competitive NL East. Wheeler has certainly done his job; he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. In his lone home start, he allowed only a single run through seven complete innings, good for a 1.29 ERA. While Cobb has also pitched well, he's averaging 4.5 innings per start, compared to Wheeler's 6.5 innings. That means we're likely to see more of the Baltimore bullpen than the Philadelphia one; the O's relievers have a combined 4.56 ERA on the road thus far. The last time that Wheeler faced the O's was in Aug of 2018. He allowed just one run through five innings, picking up the "W." He would have gone longer but his team (Mets) were killing the O's and had just sent 12 batters to the plate, forcing Wheeler to sit for a long time. (His team ended up winning 16-5.) In his only previous start against the O's, Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings. Phillies roll. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. After dropping both games of yesterday's double-header, the Phillies know that they can ill afford to fall further behind the Braves in the NL East. Indeed, funny as it sounds, in this short season, this is practically a must-win game. OK, maybe thats exaggerating. But its definitely an important game. I expect Nola to help stop the bleeding. While he doesnt have any wins to show for it, Nola has a solid 3.97 ERA and a stellar 0.794 WHIP through two starts. Last time out, he limited the very powerful Yankees to a mere three hits and one run, while striking out 12 without walking a batter. Dominant. Newcomb, on the other hand, has a 6.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through his three starts. The Braves are 1-3 when Newcomb has started against Philadelphia. On the other hand, the Phils are 5-2 the past seven times that Nola started against Atlanta. 

I'm playing on LA/Texas OVER the total. Lynn has been good to me thus far, so I'm aware that he's pitched well. Still, I feel that this number is too low. Heaney has also pitched well, admittedly. However, while Lynn has an ERA approaching four against LA, he's 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA in 10 starts vs. Texas. Six of Heaney's 10 starts vs. Texas have produced at least eight runs, five hitting double-digits. Each of Lynn's last two against LA have finished with at least nine runs. Of course, the starters aren't going to be around forever. The LA bullpen has a combined 4.50 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, thus far. Meanwhile, Texas relievers have combined for a 5.44 ERA. The two bullpens have combined for seven blown saves already. Look for the final combined score to finish above this low number. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates lost a wild one yesterday, falling 17-13 in extra innings. Today, however, I expect them to have the advantage. Holland has quietly pitched pretty well. Through two starts, he's got a 0.97 ERA. The Pirates won one of those and lost the other by a run, despite facing a pair of relatively tough lineups and being big underdogs in both those games. Today, facing former teammate Nova and the Tigers, Holland and co. actually opened as small favorites. That's for good reason, in my opinion. Despite facing arguably weaker opposition, Nova has been far more hittable than Holland, as he has a 1.406 WHIP. Even with last night's win, the Tigers are still a dismal 54-110 on the road, the past 2+ seasons. Yesterday's game notwithstanding, the Pirates have fared well in recent years in Interleague play. Expect them to bounce back and stop the bleeding this afternoon. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. Many are reluctant to play against the Yankees, when they're off a loss. However, the Rays will have the advantage in this one and could easily be a larger favorite. While the Yankees are off a hard-fought loss, followed by travel, the Rays had yesterday off. In fact, these teams were originally supposed to play each other Thursday but the Yankees schedule got thrown off and they were forced to stay in Philadelphia and play the Phillies Thursday instead. That should work in the Rays' favor. Of course, the venue also favors the Rays, as they've been much stronger here at home. Indeed, they're 5-2 at home but 0-5 on the road. While Snell is likely to only go four or five innings, I expect him to be sharp when he's in there. Tampa has won four of its last six against NY, including each of the past two, when Snell was on the mound. The rested Rays' relievers have a combined 2.12 ERA (1.000 WHIP) here at home. The Rays, who were blanked by Boston on Wednesday, are 10-5 the past couple of seasons, when off a shutout loss. Expect them to be the team which bounces back with an important victory. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nats have the schedule and venue in their favor. They should also have the edge on the mound. While the Mets are off a game at Atlanta yesterday, the champs had the day off. Despite facing the Yankees in his first start, Corbin was outstanding. He allowed just one earned run, on only two hits, while recording eight K's without walking a batter. Corbin's last start against the Mets was of the quality variety but it was at NY and against Syndergaard. (NY won 4-3.) In his last home start against the Mets, alll Corbin did was record 11 K's against just one walk, while giving up only four hits and one run, through eight innings. Washington won 5-1. Expect another win for the Nats here. 

I'm playing on San Diego on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I like the Padres' chances of winning this one outright. However, in a key divisional battle with a pair of quality starters on the mound, this could easily be a close one, with runs at a premium. Therefore, getting the extra +1.5 runs is the way I'm choosing to go. Speaking of the starters, I backed Paddack in his first start and he rewarded me with a gem. He's now got a 1.64 ERA through two starts. Buehler, on the other hand, has a 4.90 ERA thus far. Paddack's last start saw the Padres lose by a single run. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' in this one. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals are indeed missing a few key members from last year. Rendon made an impressive debut for the Angels last night. Zimmerman opted to sit out and Soto has still yet to play. Hopefully, Soto gets to cleared to play in time for this one. However, even if he doesn't, the Nats still have more than enough to win a game with Scherzer on the mound against a kid making his major league debut. True, Pearson has good stuff and the Jays have high hopes for him. He's up against a future Hall-Of-Famer though. Scherzer, who struck out 11 Yankee batters in 5 1/3 innings on Opening Night, knows his team needs him to come up big to stop the bleeding. Expect him to get the better of the rookie, the champs bouncing back with a much-needed win. 

I'm playing on Seattle/LA OVER the total. Sandoval will be limited to about 75 pitches but he may well not even last that long. Remember, that Sandoval previously tested positive for the virus. That delayed his ability to work out. He did go three innings (51 pitches) against the Padres in his final exhibiition game but gave up five earned runs in the process. Sheffield looked more impressive than Sandoval in the spring. However, intrasquad games are a lot different than facing an angry Angel lineup which will be looking to bounce back after getting blanked Monday. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. This price came down from its opener, giving us excellent value with the champs. After having to contend with a tough Yankee team, the Nationals will be happy to step down in class to face Toronto. Keep in mind that the Nats were 50-31 at home last season while the Jays were 32-49 on the road. Off an extra-inning loss, the Jays may be a little deflated. Thornton gave up quite a few HR's last year (1.4 per nine innings) and had a 4.84 ERA. While Rendon has moved on, this lineup still has plenty of weapons. Expect victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Paddack should be poised for a strong season for the Padres and I expect him to get it off on the right foot Friday evening. Note that Paddack was 1-0 with a commanding 1.08 ERA in three 2019 starts against the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner, meanwhile, is just 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 17 career starts at Petco. Bumgarner normally has an advantage over opposing starters in that he's a better hitter. However, thats no longer an advantage for him, as pitchers won't be hitting. On learning he would start Opening Day, Paddack had this to say: "I had chills running down my arms. I took a deep breath and really reflected on all my hard work paying off since surgery. This is something that’s been a goal of mine ever since I picked up a baseball." I say Paddack and the Padres start things off with a "W." 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Needless to say, home field hasn't meant much in this World Series. That said, with everything on the line, I'd still rather be playing in my home park. Scherzer is an all-time great and he's a warrior. However, lets not forget that he was just scratched a few days ago from nerve irritation in his neck. That sounded pretty serious, at the time. Should he falter, there's no Strasburg coming out of the pen to his rescue. Actually, I shouldn't say that so quickly - this is Game 7 and Strasburg did hint at the possibility. But he wouldnt last long and it would be far from ideal for the Nats.) Corbin could well be the first to come out. He's been far from dominant and the Astros tend to hit southpaws well. Greinke, on the other hand, has Cole ready to come to his aid, should it be needed. He wouldnt be completely fresh either but far more so than Strasburg. The rest of the bullpen favors the Astros. I say they bounce back and finally win at home. 

I'm playing on Washington/Houston UNDER the total. Verlander vs. Strasburg. Not much more needs to be said. Two all-time greats going at it. One trying to win his team the World Series, the other trying to keep his team alive. While Round 1 of this matchup proved high-scoring, I absolutely expect to see quality pitching for this evening's rematch. The Astros have allowed just one run in three straight games. Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the past 20 times that they had allowed one run or less in three straight. The Nats, now trailing for the first time in the WS, have seen the UNDER go 8-0-1 the past nine times that they were trailing in a series. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on Houston/Washington UNDER the total. While the first two games have been high-scoring, I expect Game 3 to go to the pitchers. True, this isn't exactly a "pitcher's park." However, we're now in the National League, meaning pitchers will hit. Though Greinke is a decent hitter, for a pitcher, this is still a lot more favorable for the pitchers than having to face a DH. Also, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the games at Houston. We've already seen what Sanchez can do. He first threw a no-hitter years ago and he almost had another in these playoffs. Greinke, meanwhile, is a Cy Young winner, as well as a 5-time Gold Glove winner. He's always well prepared and he's going to be ready when his team needs him most. Note that he has owned the Nationals and that his last seven starts against them have ALL produced five or fewer combined runs. More? The UNDER is 20-10 when the Astros were road favorites in the -110 to -150 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on Washington/Houston UNDER the total. Yesterday didn't result in the pitcher's duel that some might have expected. Today, however, we've got another world class pitching matchup and we're working with an even higher O/U line than yesterday. I expect the starters to steal center stage. Strasburg has dominated these entire playoffs. He's got a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out 33, while walking only one, through 22 innings. Amazingly, that has actually hurt his career postseason ERA. That now sits at 1.10, right there among the all-time greats. While Verlander hasn't been as dominant as Strasburg, he's a proven playoff warrior and he's coming off a 21-6 season with a 2.58 ERA. His team desperately needs him and I expect the future Hall-Of-Famer to rise to the occasion. Expect both starters to bring it, the bats going quiet and the final score staying below the number. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Nationals have been on a special roll. However, the Astros are a special team. They've been here before and won't panic. True, Verlander hasn't been as dominant as Strasburg in these playoffs. That said, he's a proven postseason warrior and he's coming off a 21-6 season with a 2.58 ERA. His team desperately needs him and I expect the future Hall-Of-Famer to rise to the occasion. While the Nats were a modest 43-38 on the road this season, the Astros were a dominant 60-21 here. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing Washington on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) Obviously, Cole had an amazing season and the Astros have a great team. Scherzer is no slouch either though and the Nats are on a special roll of their own. While we have to go back several years, Scherzer's teams are 4-1 his last five against Houston, 2-0 his last two. Cole, meanwhile, is 1-2 his last three against Washington. The two losses came by scores of 6-1 and 6-0, too. While the Astros are 11-9 their last 20 against NL teams, the Nats are 14-6 their last 20 against teams from the American League. With runs likely to be at a premium, every extra run counts. I feel that getting an extra +1.5 of them for this price, with Scherzer on the mound, is providing excellent value. 

I'm playing on Washington/St. Louis OVER the total. While the two games at St. Louis were extremely low-scoring, I'm expecting the change of venue to wake the bats up. For one, it'll be considerably warmer. Friday's game at Busch was chilly, the coldest air there of the season, as a cold front had moved in. The Nats love hitting here, averaging 5.6 runs per game. Flaherty hasn't been as good away from home, either. The Cards saw Strasburg less than a month ago and scored a couple of runs, in five innings, against him. Strasburg walked four, while also giving up a home run. So, they've had some recent relative success against him. Flaherty's lone start vs. the Nats saw him walk five in five innings. The OVER is 6-2-3 the past 2+ seasons when the Cards played a game with an O/U line of less than 7.5. That includes a 4-1-1 OVER mark away from Busch. Look for those stats to improve Monday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. No need for the Astros to panic. They've been here before. They're still at home and they've got a future Hall-Of-Famer on the mound. Verlander, 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA on the season, dominated the Yankees in a pair of 2017 playoff starts. While Verlander is extremely battle-tested, Paxton has only made one postseason start; he's got a poor 5.79 ERA to show for it. When the Astros faced Paxton, here at Houston, back in April, they scored five runs against him. With Verlander on the mound, they shouldn't need that many this time. Expect them to dig deep and find a way to even up the series.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros were tested more than many expected in the opening round. That may actually serve them well here though, in my opinion. They've had their "wake up call" and are ready to go. The last four times that he's faced NY, a span of 26 2/3 innings, Greinke has allowed 2, 1, 3 and 2 runs. Simply put, Tanaka hasn't been good on the road. In fact, in 15 road starts, he's got an ugly 6.16 ERA. By comparison, Greinke has a 3.55 ERA at home. Tanaka has a 1.407 WHIP on the road, averaging 5.4 innings. Greinke has a 1.048 WHIP at home, averaging 6.4 innings. The Yanks are just 28-43 as road underdogs past 2+ seasons, 6-13 their last 19. That includes an ugly 3-12 (-8) mark the past 15 times that they were road underdogs in the +100 to +150 range. With the Astros a dominating 21-4 the past 25 times that they played with a day off in between games, I'm laying the wood with Greinke. 

I'm playing on LA. Playing at home, with Scherzer on the mound and with Rich Hill on the mound for LA, I successfully backed the Nationals last game. However, I'm going against them here. I'm well aware that Strasburg has been a playoff beast. He's got a 1.00 ERA in two postseason appearances this season and a 0.64 career postseason ERA. Admittedly, thats tough to go against. Buehler is the right man for the job. I backed him in the Dodgers opener and he rewarded me with six shutout innings, giving him a 0.00 ERA for the current postseason. Here's an excerpt of what I had to say about Buehler before that game: "... Many will be surprised to see Buehler instead of Kershaw, or Ryu. The Dodgers have faith in for good reason though. He's 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.89 WHIP on the season - much better than his road stats. He's also a dominant 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.97 WHIP when pitching during the evening. Again, much better than his daytime stats. You may recall the last time that Buehler was on the mound for a postseason game. That was Game 3 of last year's World Series. All he did was toss seven shutout innings...." Once again, Buehler is on his home mound while pitching during the evening. Unlike Strasburg, Buehler is pitching on regular rest. While the Nats used Straburg out of the pen earlier, that (obviously) won't be an option here. Likewise, Scherzer came out of the pen into a relief role. However, thats not going to be an option, at least one wouldn't think, after he gave the Nats all he had on Monday. They also tried #3 starter Corbin out of the pen but that didn't go well. In other words, their "anti-bullpen" strategy won't be an option here. Again, Strasburg is working on less than optimal rest. That means that the Nats bullpen may well come into play - and thats been a weak spot all season long. Collectively, Washington relievers have a 5.75 ERA, roughly two runs higher than LA relievers. Its been a great run for the Nats but it comes to an end here.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals were 19-8 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range this season. Facing elimination, I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. True, Scherzer came out of the bullpen on two day's rest in Game 2. (He struck out the side in eighth.) I believe he'll be ready to go though. His team needs him and I expect the longtime ace to rise to the occasion. The last time that the Nats saw Rich Hill was in May. They beat him 6-0. We've seen this team pull an epic comeback only a week ago. They're resilient. Don't count them out quite yet. 

I'm playing on Houston/TB UNDER the total. Greinke finished the season at 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA. In his final regular season start, he took a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Morton was 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA in the reg. season. At home, his ERA dipped to 2.59. He allowed a single unearned run in five innings in the Wild Card game. With the victory, he became the first pitcher in MLB history to win three "winner-take-all games." So, he knows a thing or two about pitching in October. The UNDER is 4-2 the past six times that the Astros tried to close out a series and 6-2 the past eight times that TB was facing elimination in a playoff game. Look for a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing Atlanta on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Off a tough loss yesterday, the Braves are going to be desperate in this one. This is a very talented and determined team and I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. While I do expect them to win outright, we already saw a 1-run game yesterday. In this type of series, the value of an extra +1.5 runs can't be overstated. Yes, Flaherty has been on a major roll - I won with the Cards (-1.5) the last time that he pitched. He hasn't been that dominant here at Atlanta though. His lone 2019 start here saw him allow three runs in six innings. A quality start but not outstanding. Note that he walked five in that game. Also, in his previous start here (09/18) he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Don't let his season stats fool you, Foltynewicz has been extremely stingy for some time now, as he's quietly gone 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA his last 10 starts. In his last home start, he tossed eight shutout innings. Last time he faced the Cards, he allowed a single unearned run through six complete, winning 5-2. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the desperate Braves. 

I'm playing on TB/Houston UNDER the total. What more can you say about Verlander? The guy is a machine and he just keeps getting it done. He's off one of his best seasons ever, going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300 K's. At home, he had a 2.43 ERA and 0.843 WHIP, the UNDER going 12-4-1. Not to be outdone, Glasnow has a dynamite 0.55 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in six road starts. Opposing batters hit a mere .142 in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 4-1-1. Glasnow held the Astros to one run in his lone start against them, a 3-1 final. Meanwhile, Verlander allowed just a single combined run in two starts against Tampa this season. He's held the Rays to two or fewer earned runs seven of the past eight times that he's faced them. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on St. Louis/Atlanta UNDER the total. I really like the way that both these starters finished the season. Keuchel had a stellar 2.55 ERA his final nine starts. He's been much better at home and he's got plenty of postseason experience. Mikolas had a 3.37 ERA his final three starts and a 3.03 ERA his last six. In his final reg. season start, he allowed two runs, only one of them earned, through eight complete innings. The Cards won 3-2. Mikolas has made three career starts vs. the Braves, allowing three, two and one earned run, a total of just six through 18 1/3 combined innings. During that span, he struck out 16 while walking only two. The Cards have seen the majority of their games finish below the total this season. Their most recent three with the Braves had combined scores of 7, 9 and 7. While I respect the lineup and the park, I feel that this number is generously high. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on Washington/Milwaukee UNDER the total. Scherzer hasn't enjoyed much postseason success for the Nats. I expect that to change here though. He faces the Brewers, without Yelich, a team he's held to one or fewer earned runs seven of eight times. In three career home starts vs. the Brewers, he's allowed just three combined earned runs. His lone 2019 start against them saw him allow a single earned run through six complete, striking out 10 against a single walk. Woodruff has also enjoyed success against Washington. In two career starts against the Nats, he's allowed two runs, on only six hits, in 13 combined innings, striking out 17 against just one walk. One of those games was against Scherzer and the final score was 3-2. I'm expecting another well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Cards need Flaherty for this one, rather than saving him for their first postseason start. I feel that they're in good hands, given that he's got an absolutely dominant 1.05 ERA since the All-Star Break. Holland, meanwhile, is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA as a starter this season. That likely means its Flaherty vs. a lot of Cubs' relievers. In 11 daytime starts this season, the Cards' starter has a 1.64 ERA, opposing batters hitting .197. I'll take Flaherty and the Cards to come through when they need to, winning this one by multiple runs. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Mahle may not have a great record, OK its pretty bad, but he's fighting for a spot in next year's rotation and he's coming off a gem. Last time out, he limited the Cubs to a single hit through six innings. He's got a relatively respectable 1.30 WHIP here at home. While Lyles may be having success with Milwaukee, lets not completely forget that he had a 9.57 ERA his final nine starts with Pittsburgh; the last time he faced the Reds he lost 11-6. Mahle, who won't have to contend with Yelich, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts against the Brewers. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" for the home team. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Stuck in Cincinnati, some may not realize that Gray is having a very special year. Last time out, he allowed just four hits through 6 2/3 innings. After allowing five or fewer hits in every August start, he's now allowed four or fewer hits in ever Sept. start. In fact, he's now gone an incredible 32 consecutive starts without allowing more than six hits. Thats a new MLB record, breaking the one previously held by Nolan Ryan. The Brewers know all about how nasty Gray can be. He's 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts against them. Houser doesnt go deep into games and has a 4.42 ERA on the road. Given the matchup, I feel that the price could easily be higher. Reds roll. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Means has been tough at home all season (2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and he's making his final home start here. I expect him to outpitch Gonzales, who has a 4.10 ERA and 1.419 WHIP on the road. Gonzales has started against the O's twice (both in 2017) and he allowed nine earned runs, on 17 hits, in just 7 2/3 innings. Look for the O's to take advantage of a rare favorable matchup, moving to 48-36 (+4.1) the past 2+ seasons, when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -150 range.

I'm playing on NY/Cincy UNDER the total. Needless to say, this should be a very well-pitched affair. The Mets send de Grom to the mound and he's got a 2.14 ERA his past three starts and a 2.53 ERA in 14 road starts overall. In five career starts vs. the Reds, de Grom has allowed a total of six earned runs, 0 in either of the last two. He went at least six innings in each too, a perfect 5-for-5 in terms of quality starts. In his past two against the Reds, de Grom has recorded 16 K's through 13 scorelss innings, walking just three and permitting only seven hits. Meanwhile, Castillo has faced the Mets twice and he allowed just two earned runs each time. Castillo has a 2.93 ERA here at home to go along with a 0.968 WHIP. The UNDER is 11-6-1 in his home starts, 19-9-2 overall. The Reds have scored four runs or less in six straight games and 10 of their last 11. Expect runs to be at a premium once again. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Musgrove leads the Pirates in strikeouts, as well as innings and starts. He's got a solid 1.22 WHIP on the season. Kikuchi, on the other hand, leads the entire majors in HRs (36) allowed by a rookie. In fact, thats the most ever allowed by a rookie! He's 3-9 with a 6.80 ERA his last 19 starts. Last time out, he gave up 10 hits (5 earned runs) in just 2 1/3 innings. Pirates bounce back, big. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Talk about consistent. Bieber has now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 straight. Remarkably, he's recorded at least seven K's in every one of those games, too. Last time out, he struck out eight, while limiting the Angels to a single run, lasting seven complete. He's 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in September and he's got a 2.58 ERA and 0.94 WHIP his last 15 starts. He's been at his best (2.61 ERA and 0.84 WHIP) in day games all season, opposing batters hitting .192. The Twins, meanwhile, will go with an opener, Dobnak starting things off. After losing both yesterday, the Indians bounce back.

I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). While the Dodgers took yesterday's Kershaw/Syndergaard matchup, the Mets have the advantage in this one.  In fact, in terms of current form, this a mismatch. Ryu, making his first start since 9/4, has an ugly 9.95 ERA his past four starts. On the other hand, de Grom is in Cy Young form, as he looks to take down the award again. Last time out, he allowed one run through seven complete innings, striking out 11. Look for de Grom to get the better of Ryu, as the Mets bounce back. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Gibson is back and I expect the mini break to have served him well. He's 8-3 with a 1.19 WHIP at home, much better than his 1.54 WHIP on the road. While Corbin has had a strong season overall, a closer look reveals that he's 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the road, compared to 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA at home. Also, he walked six batters in five innings last time out, which is rather disturbing. The Twins have been tough at home all year. Look for them to close out the homestand with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on KC/Chicago UNDER the total. Lopez was outstanding last time out. In fact, he tossed a complete-game, allowing just one run on only one hit, while striking out 11. The final score was 7-1. In his last home start, Lopez tossed five shutout innings, allowing zero hits. The final score was 2-0. Two of Lopez's last three against the Royals have seen him allow one run through six complete innings. The most recent of those came in a h2h matchup vs. Sparkman. That one finished with a final score of 5-2, both starters delivering quality. Sparkman has faced the Sox since then and he tossed a complete-game shutout. With the starters picking up where they left off last time they saw each other, look for the UNDER to improve to 20-9-1 the past 30 times that KC played a road game with an O/U line of 10 or 10.5.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Sox followed up a 5-1 win over the Angels with a 7-3 win in yesterday's series opener against KC. I expect them to make it three in a row today. Lopez was outstanding last time out. In fact, he tossed a complete-game, allowing just one run on only one hit, while striking out 11. The final score was 7-1. In his last home start, Lopez tossed five shutout innings, allowing zero hits. The final score was 2-0. Two of Lopez's last three against the Royals have seen him allow one run through six complete innings. The most recent of those came in a h2h matchup vs. Sparkman. Chicago won. In fact, the two have gone h2h twice this season and the Sox won both. Given that Sparkman has a 9.76 ERA and 1.991 WHIP on the road, I expect Lopez and the Sox to finish on top, once again. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Twins the last time that Berrios was on the mound. So, I'm aware that he hasn't been quite his best of late. However, that was at Fenway. He delivered a quality start in his preivous outing. He's still got a respectable 3.62 ERA at home. Facing the Nats for the first time, I expect him to bounce back and give the Twins a solid performance. While Berrios will be making his first start against Washington, Sanchez has made many starts against the Twins. The last two saw his team lose by scores of 9-4 and 5-1. The Twins are a lucrative 38-17 (+16.7) off a loss and they're 28-13 (+10.5) after having lost two of their last three. Look for them to bounce back and start the series with a win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. While I lost with the Reds yesterday, I'm coming right back with them this afternoon. Desclafani should be happy to see the Diamondbacks. Desclafani's past two starts against Arizona resulted in victories of 3-0 and 13-0. Through 16 shutout innings, Desclafani recorded 18 K's while only allowing seven hits and one walk. On the other hand, Leake likely won't be too happy to see the Reds. Indeed, his teams are 0-8 in his eight career starts against the Reds, Leake personally going 0-5. With Desclafani also in excellent current form, look for the Reds to respond. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Braves send Teheran to the mound and he's got a stellar 2.73 ERA his last 22 starts. Over his last three starts, he's allowed just two combined runs through 19 complete innings. Voth, who is expected to be on a pitch count, will be the facing the Braves for the second time. Thats the first time that a team will have seen him twice and I expect that to favor the hitters. With Voth not expected to go deep, note that the Washington bullpen has been a weak spot all season, with a combined ERA close to six. Teheran has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts against the Nats, including four straight. Braves roll. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Sox yesterday and I'm coming right back with them in this evening's finale. Eovaldi has been working himself back into form. Last time out, he allowed only one run, on just three hits, striking out eight. While Eovaldi can't be counted on to go too deep into the game, Rodriguez gave the bullpen a bit of a break yesterday, going seven complete. For what its worth, the last time Eovaldi faced the Twins (last July) he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits without walking a batter. While Eovaldi is getting stronger, Perez is going the other way. Despite facing the normally light-hitting Tigers, he got rocked for eight runs (7 earned) in three innings, last time out. Also, in his last two starts at Fenway, Perez has allowed a combined 14 runs (10 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings. Needless to say, his team lost both. Boston rolls. 

I'm playing on SF/STL UNDER the total. While these teams combined for 17 runs yesterday, I don't expect to see even half that many this afternoon. The "under" has been money in Cardinal day games. On the season, the UNDER is 27-15-5 when the Cards played during the afternoon. Going back further finds the UNDER at 85-66-8 in St. Louis day games, the past 2+ seasons. Hudson (14-6, 3.53 ERA) has had a great year and he's currently in outstanding form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 1.77 ERA. Over that 20+ inning span, he allowed a mere four runs. Webb has a solid 3.53 ERA through three starts and he allowed just a single run last time out. Prior to yesterday's slug-fest, the teams had combined for just five runs through the first two games. Look for this afternoon's finale to return to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Twins took yesterday's game but I expect the Sox to bounce back here. Rodriguez is 16-5 on the season including 10-1 (3.17 ERA) his last 15. The Sox won 9-4 in June in Rodriguez's previous 2019 start against Minnesota. While he did allow three runs last time out, that was at Coors. In his previous two starts, Rodriguez allowed 0 combined runs through 14 1/3 innings. Berrios, on the other hand, has a 5.44 ERA his last seven starts. Over his last three starts, he's given up 24 hits, while also walking seven, in just 15 2/3 innings. Thats roughly two baserunners per inning, which will catch up with him here. While it hasn't been his fault, the Twins are still 1-3 in Berrios' four career starts vs. the Sox, 0-2 here at Fenway. Boston bounces back. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's are a profitable 27-10 (+10.7) as home favorites of -150 or greater. Going back further finds them at 52-19 (+20.8) in that role the past 2+ seasons. With one of baseball's hottest pitchers on the mound, expect them to improve on those stats this evening. Fiers is now 11-0 with a 2.40 ERA his past 20 starts. The A's are 13-2 the past 15 times that he's taken the mound, a perfect 7-0 the past seven. While Fiers has a 2.40 ERA at home, Barria is 2-6 (nine games, 7 starts) with an 8.24 ERA on the road. Fiers has made four starts against the Angels since 2018. He's 3-0 in those games, his team is 4-0. The scores were 7-2, 7-4, 4-0 and 6-1. Fiers allowed, 1, 3, 0 and 1 runs. Expect Fiers' remarkable run to continue, the A's again finishing on top. 

I'm playing on Det/KC UNDER the total. Two of the weakest offenses in baseball here. While the Tigers are the lowest scoring team in the majors, the Royals aren't much better. They rank 27th, in terms of runs scored per game. These teams are 28th and 29th in terms of home runs, only Miami hits less. Montgomery is off a gem but got stuck with a 2-1 loss for his efforts. His last three starts have all fallen below the total. He's got a 2.49 ERA at home. Montgomery faced the Tigers a few weeks ago and it was one of the best starts of his career. He allowed just four hits through seven shutout innings. He didnt walk a single batter and he recorded 12 strike outs. The final score was 7-0. While Norris has only been going a few innings recently, he's been dynamite while he's in there. He's got a 1.00 ERA his past three starts. Four of Norris' past five starts against the Royals have produced five or fewer combined runs. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While Happ hasn't had the season that he had hoped for, there's still time to finish strong. Keep in mind that he was 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in five September starts last season. The previous September, Happ was 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. In 2016? He was 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. In 2015? He was 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA. Thats a 12-2 record the past four Septembers, excellent numbers in each of those months. His teams are 17-5 his last 22 Sept. starts. While Happ did lose at Oakland a couple of starts ago, Happ bounced back with a better effort last time out. In fact, he only allowed two hits while striking out seven. Also, Happ's teams are still 7-2 his last nine starts against Oakland, a perfect 3-0 when not playing at Oakland. Happ's teams won those games by a combined score of 19-6. Catching the A's at the end of a road trip, expect Happ to better than he was at Oakland, the Yanks closing out the series with a victory. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Rays won a wild 9-8 affair against Houston yesterday, using seven pitchers in the process. The Indians, on the other hand, needed only two pitchers in their 2-0 victory at Detroit, Clevinger giving them eight complete innings. The Indians will again have the edge in the starting pitching department here while Tampa's depleted bullpen may also become a factor. Bieber is having a great season and he continues to be extremely consistent. He delivers quality start after quality start and has a stellar 2.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP his last seven. He's averaged better than seven innings over those seven starts, too. On the season, he's 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.81 WHIP on the road. Opposing hitters are batting .180! While Bieber has a 2.57 ERA in August, Pruitt has a 5.40 ERA (all in relief) on the month. Making his first start of the season, he's highly unlikely to match Bieber, in terms of innings, or in terms of quality. In Bieber's last two starts against TB, he allowed just one combined run, while striking out 21. The Indians won 3-1 and 2-0. Expect them to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on Oakland/KC UNDER the total. Yesterday's game snuck over the total, finishing with 10 combined runs. This afternoon, we're working with a higher O/U number, yet I expect a lower combined score. Bassitt is having a very solid season and he's in excellent current form. He's got a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 2.81 mark his past seven. In 11 day games this season, he's 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA. Bassitt's last two starts against KC came in 2018 and 2016. He pitched very well in each of those allowing one run in seven innings and two runs in seven innings. Through the 14 innings, he gave up just eight combined hits. The final scores were 2-0 and 3-2. Sparkman has had some trouble on the road. However, he's been stingy here at home. Through eight home starts, he's got a 2.77 ERA and 0.981 WHIP, averaging 6 1/2 innings per start here. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Even with yesterday's result, the Phillies are 39-29 at home compared to the Pirates' 27-39 mark on the road. Keller was tough last time out. However, the rookie still has a very poor 7.24 ERA and 1.83 WHIP on the season and he's going to be facing a desperate Phillies team. In three road starts, Keller has a terrible 9.75 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .400 against him in those games! Velasquez can be inconsistent at times but he's also capable of dominating hitters; he strikes out more than one per inning. He's got a solid 1.19 WHIP at home this season. I say the Phillies bounce back. 

I'm playing on NY/Seattle UNDER the total. Facing a fellow countryman, both today's starters may be a little extra motivated for this one. Kikuchi comes in on a high. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 2-hit shutout, striking out eight along the way. Tanaka will be happy to see the Mariners. He's made nine career appearances against Seattle. He's gone six or more innings in all nine, more than six in all but one. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of those nine starts, four in the other. In other words, eight quality starts out of nine and the other wasn't terrible. In his most recent three starts against the M's, Tanaka has allowed just three combined runs (2,0,1) in 21 1/3 innings. Overall, he struck out 68 while walking just seven, in those nine starts against Seattle. Not surprisingly, seven of those fell below the number. This one will too. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Cards won big yesterday. However, I expect the Brewers, who have a starter in much better current form, to bounce back today. Houser has a stellar 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP his past three starts. In his most recent home start, he allowed only one run on just three hits, striking out 10. Mikolas, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.44 ERA his past three starts, giving up five long balls. On the season, he's got a poor 6.54 ERA on the road, averaging just five innings. Last time he started here at Milwaukee, he served up three home runs in five innings. In 17 1/3 total innings here, he's given up six home runs. Milwaukee has been money, when off a division loss as a favorite, going 22-5 its last 27 in that situation. With Houser outlasting Mikolas, expect the Brewers to improve to 38-17, their past 55, when playing with revenge from a game in which they were favored.