I'm playing on LA. This pointspread is higher than a field goal. Many of the previous playoff games have been decided on the game's final play; both these teams just won by three. That's going to make it tempting, for many, to back the underdog. That sentiment, in my opinion, is helping to keep the line lower than it easily could have been and providing us with value on the favorite. 

The Bengals are a fun team to watch and they deserve enormous credit for getting here. They've got a very good young coach, an excellent young kicker, a young QB who is playing well and who has a young superstar receiver to throw the ball to. 

Notice the word that I kept using to describe the Bengals? "Young." This is all new to them. Until now, they've played without feeling any pressure. Now, having two weeks to realize the huge stage that they'll be on will change that. 

While Burrow and the Bengals may feel that they'll be back here again in the future, Stafford, Donald and the Rams know that their time is now. They may not get another opportunity. 

I've often found that teams, players and coaches "need to lose, before they can win." I like that the Rams have "come close" in recent seasons. I like that Stafford had to toil for all those years in Detroit. Don't be surprised when he's awarded the SB MVP. 

As exciting as the Bengals are, in my opinion, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. The numbers are close but the Rams score more points and they allow less. The Rams put up those superior numbers against an arguably much tougher schedule. While some may not be impressed by the fact that they had to comeback to beat the 49'ers, keep in mind that SF was a team which had their number. The NFC West, as whole, was extremely tough. Three teams had at least 11 wins. LA, SF and Arizona combined for 37 wins themselves; Seattle is always dangerous too. The Bengals AFC North, on the other hand, arguably had a down year. Cincinnati had 11 wins but no other team had more than nine. The Steelers weren't as tough as normal, the Ravens lost Lamar to injury. The Browns dealt with issues all season. The Bengals also benefited from facing teams like the Jets, Lions and Jaguars. The Rams non-div. slate included games against the likes of the Packers, Bucs and Colts.

Remember, the Rams made Kyler Murray look scared in their playoff opener. Next, they bloodied Brady en route to knocking off the defending SB champs. 

Of course, the fact that the game is being played at SoFi Stadium also figures to help the Rams. Being in their home city, they'll be able to avoid a lot of the hype and distractions that come along with the SB. The Rams are very well-coached and I believe that it's "their time." No more comebacks for the Bengals Rams roll.

I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. The 49'ers are running the ball a lot (5th most rushing attempts per game in the NFL) and are quietly playing outstanding defense. The frequent running plays are keeping the clock moving and keeping opposing offenses off the field. They limited the Packers to 10 points after holding Dallas to 17. Their last seven opponents have all scored 24 or less, an average of just 16. They held the Rams to an average of 17 points in the first two meetings. The Rams allowed Brady to come back last weekend and that led to a high final score. However, somewhat lost in that final score was the fact that the Rams' defense was again dominant, at least prior to the comeback. Remember, the shot of Brady bleeding from the mouth? Remember, what the Rams defense did to Kyler Murray and the Cards the previous week? The UNDER is 6-0 the past six times that the 49'ers were road underdogs in the playoffs. The UNDER is also 17-4 the past 21 times that the Rams were listed as home favorites. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair.

I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Rams. I feel that they've exorcised some demons. I like that they dominated the Bucs, blew the lead and found a way to win. I feel that'll serve them well here. Of course, Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. The Rams are going to give him fits. The 49'ers are only here because of some fortunate kick blocks. They won't be so lucky this week though. Keep in mind that they're playing their fourth straight on the road. Forget what happened in the reg. season, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Expect them to prove it, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Cincy/KC UNDER the total. I thought this O/U line might rise from its opening number. It has. While I'm not surprised by that move, I feel that its adding value to what was already a generously high number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I lost with the Chiefs 'under' in their win over the Bills. The final score would suggest that was a terrible play. Though a loss is a loss, I don't feel that was the case though. The reality was that if the Bills didn't convert a 4th and long late in the game, the final score stays below the total. The majority of the scoring drives were very time consuming, as I had anticipated. Even with them ending in TD's instead of FG's, the score was still reasonable until the final couple of minutes. With that crazy Bills/Chiefs game fresh in their minds and also the high-scoring Week 17 game between these teams, many will be expecting another shootout on Sunday. That sentiment is helping to drive the number up. While we won't know until later in the week if the Chiefs will have safety Mathieu (concussion protocol) back, the hope is that he will be able to return. Reid noted that he felt good. Needless to say, the Chiefs missed him against the Bills. If he didn't take an accidental knee to the head early in that game, things likely would have played out differently. While all the talk about the Bengals revolves around their explosive offense, they just beat the Titans 19-16. That's three straight games that have finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the reg. season game at Cincy was high-scoring, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five meetings here at KC. The UNDER is also now 6-0 the Bengals' last six playoff games. Expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their WC games go 'over' the total. Both offenses certainly looked impressive. Many will also recall that the last two meetings between these teams, one this past October and one last January, were also high-scoring. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, the offenses are potent. However, let's not forget that the Bills also have the best defense in football. They allow the fewest number of points per game and they also allow the fewest yards per game and per play. In terms of points allowed per game, the Chiefs are a top #10 defense. They're a different team now than they were when they faced the Bills last season, or even earlier this season. The gameplan wasn't working early on so Reid and co. changed things up. They started taking what the opposing defense gave them and having much longer scoring drives. It should also be mentioned that the Chiefs have been particularly stingy at home. Since the Bills beat them here in October, the Chiefs have played seven home games. They allowed 21, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7 and 17 points. That's an average of less than 12 ppg allowed, over the past seven games here. While many will be expecting a shootout, I say that the defense/s rises to the occasion and that the final combined score stays below the generously high total. 

I'm playing on LA. Needless to say, I respect Brady and the Bucs. They're the defending champs. Brady has won more playoff games than Stafford will ever play in. That said, I believe that the Rams are peaking at the right time. Tampa isn't 100% healthy at the moment. The injuries didn't hurt them against Philly but the Rams are on a different level than the Eagles. While Brady won't panic the way that Murray did, the Rams are going to be all over him. The Rams beat the Bucs by 10 back in September. That was at LA. However, they also beat them here at Tampa, last November. Factoring in those results, the Rams are 8-1 ATS the past nine meetings, 5-0 ATS the past five. While the LA defense is dominant, I also really like what I'm seeing from the offense. Stafford got the monkey off his back with a playoff win and the Beckham Jr. got going in the WC game. Kupp has been getting it done all year and now they've added Akers into to the backfield. I'll happily grab the points but I expect the very well-coached Rams to score the upset.

I'm playing on GB. I love how this one sets up. The Packers are at home; a January game at Lambeau, against a team from California. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare. The 49'ers are off a hard-fought win at Dallas. Now, they'll play another road game and will be doing so on a short week. Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in history, is on a mission. Garoppolo isn't on his level, at the best of times. However, he's banged-up. So are important players like Bosa and Warner. They're all expected to play. However, the short week won't make things any easier. The Packers, who won at SF earlier in the season, were the only team in the league to have a perfect home record. They won 37-10 last time that they played here, finishing with a 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record here. This will be the 49'ers fourth road game in the past five weeks. Playing at the toughest venue in the league, expect it to catch up with them. Packers win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on Arizona/LA UNDER the total. Both regular season meetings finished above the total. Likewise, both teams saw last week's game finish above the number. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they're helping to provide us with an extra high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Prior to the game against Seattle, the Cards had seen three straight games fall below the total. They scored 12, 16 and 25 points. Its not a coincidence that the offense started struggling right after Hopkins went down. As of this writing, as per ESPN's Adam Schefter, he "could be back for the NFC Championship but it would be unrealistic for him to return any sooner." (Even if he somehow did manage to return, its hard to imagine him being 100%.) Having lost that game against the Hawks, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that Arizona failed to cover its previous game. Note that the Cards run the ball more regularly than many realize. They rank #7th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. They'll be doing everything they can to establish the run to help keep their hosts' offense off the field. The Rams (27-24) game against the 49'ers went to OT. That marked the fifth straight time that they've scored 30 or less. Having allowed Garoppolo to throw for 314 yards, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that the Rams had allowed their previous opponent to gain 250 or more yards through the air. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on SF/Dallas UNDER the total. Cowboys/49'ers facing each other in the playoffs. Feels like old times. While the 49'ers got down and were forced to throw for a lot of yards in their Week 18 game vs. the Rams, this is a SF team which likes to establish the run. Arguably, the 49'ers' season turned around in a game (31-10 win over LA) where they ran the ball, over and over. In fact, both teams are in the top half of the NFL, when it comes to how often they like to run the ball. The 49'ers rank fifth in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Cowboys rank #12th. They're #7 and #9, respectively, in terms of rushing yards per game. So, we've got a pair of teams which are going to run the ball regularly. That will help to keep this clock moving. As for the Rams game, it finished with 48 points in regulation; the winning field goal came in OT. Also, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that SF had accumulated 250 or more passing yards, in its previous game. Prior to the LA game, the 49'ers had been involved in four straight games which stayed below the total. Scores were 30, 37, 44 and 49. (The 49-point game saw nine points scored in OT.) The Cowboys defense is better than advertised. Even after last week's game got crazy, they've still held six of their last nine opponents to 20 or fewer points. Two of those teams got less than seven. Not surprisingly, six of the Cowboys' past 10 games have stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/TB UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Eagles run the ball more times per game (32.4) than any team in football. Those frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Of course, they're unlikely to find things easy against a Tampa run defense which ranked third, in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. When these teams met earlier, Antonio Brown was targeted 13 times. He had nine receptions for 93 yards and a TD. Godwin was only targeted five times. However, he caught all five of those balls. As you're probably aware, neither of those receivers will be available this afternoon. Fournette also put up big numbers (2 TDs) in that game. He's out, too though. The Eagles have seen their past four Wildcard games finish below the total. I say this one does the same. 

I'm playing on NE/Buffalo UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in football. Arguably, the two very best. With all due respect to the offenses, this line could easily be lower. NE allows 17.8 ppg. Buffalo allows 17 ppg. Those are the #1 and #2 marks in the NFL. In terms of yards allowed, Buffalo ranks #1, at just 272.8 ypg allowed, and NE ranks #3. Both teams rank in the top half of the league (#8 and #13) in terms of rushing attempts per game, too. So, we're going to have a lot of running the ball to keep the clock moving. During the regular season, the game at NE was high-scoring but the game here at Buffalo was not. Four of the past five meetings in Buffalo have fallen below the total. Expect this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. While the Raiders did a great job in getting here, this setup is highly favorable for the Bengals. The Raiders left it all on the field against the Chargers last Sunday night, ultimately winning in OT. Off that emotional victory, they now travel east to play on a short week. Note that the Raiders suffered some serious bumps and bruises in Sunday's win. Notably, defensive lineman Darius Philion is out. He could have potentially been effective against the interior of the Cincy line. So, his absence is worth mentioning. The Bengals are rested and ready. This is their time. They took some heat for resting starters against the Browns but it will serve them well here. It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Raiders. It finally catches up with them here. The Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. They beat the Chiefs the last game here and pounded the Ravens in their previous home game. I expect a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. As you know, Alabama has enjoyed a lot of success on this stage. As you also know, Alabama won the first meeting convincingly. The Tide have been beating the Bulldogs for years. Yet, despite all that, Georgia is favored. So, what's different this time? The loss of Metchie III may not seem like much but its a pretty big deal. Yes, the Tide still have Jameson Williams. Perhaps the top receiver in the country, he killed the Bulldogs in the first meeting. However, the absence of Metchie and a Georgia team intent on slowing him down, will make Williams find the going tougher this time. Alabama compensated for Metchie's absence by running the bal a lot against the Bearcats. However, the Bulldogs are far stingier against the run and won't be pushed around on the line the way that Cincinnati was. These teams averaged roughly the same amount of points. Alabama averaged 41. Georgia averaged 39. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs had a big edge. They allowed less than 10 ppg. Bama allowed nearly 20. Five teams gave the Tide real trouble this season: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M. Georgia faced three of those five teams and crushed all three of them. The combined score of its win against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn was 105-17. Yet, the Tide beat those teams by only 11 combined points. Enough's enough. It's Georgia's time to shine.  

I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. It goes without saying that both teams are loaded, on both sides of the ball. As you're likely aware, the first meeting was fairly high-scoring. It finished comfortably above the total, Alabama winning 41-24. While we're working with a considerably higher O/U number for the rematch, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Both teams were dominant defensively last game. Alabama limited Michigan to 11 points. Georgia held Cincinnati to only six. In last year's big bowl win over Ohio State, the Tide got four combined TDs from Devonta Smith and Najee Harris. Of course, they no longer have either of those players, both having moved on to the pros. The Tide also got a big game from Metchie III in last year's final. He had eight receptions and averaged better than 10 yards per catch. The Tide won't have him either though. That's a big deal. Metchie had a TD and averaged better than 16 yards per reception in Alabama's December win over Georgia. However, it was Jameson Williams who really torched the Bulldogs. Now, with Metchie out, we saw Alabama change the way that they used Williams. He started doing a lot of the things Metchie had previously done. Either way, Metchie's absence will help allow Georgia to be much better at guarding Williams. A closer look at the stats from the first game shows that it was only one "wild" second quarter where the majority of the points were scored. They only had three in the first, seven in the third and a relatively modest 17 in the fourth. So, 27 points in those three quarters. They're not going to score 38 points in the second quarter this time. In the first meeting, the Tide threw the ball 44 times, while running only 26 times. The Tide had an opposite approach last week though. They ran the ball 47 times, while throwing 28, in the win over Cincinnati. I expect more frequent running plays to be part of the game plan, once again. While the Bulldogs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense against Michigan, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they had gained more than 450 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one turns into a lower-scoring than expected, defensive battle. 

I'm playing on LA. By the time this game kicks off, all the talk of a "tie" should have ended. Either way, I'm not worried about that. When asked about playing for the tie, SD coach Staley noted: "...I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another. We're going to do everything we can to go win this game, and play the way we're capable of playing." The Raiders deserve credit for fighting the whole way; it would have been easy to pack it in after Gruden's sudden departure. That said, I don't feel that they're going to be able to keep up with their high-powered guests. That was the case in the first meeting; LA won 28-14. Over their past five games, the Chargers have scored 41, 37, 28, 29 and 34 points. On the other hand, over their past five games, the Raiders have scored 23, 17, 16, 9 and 15 points. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS their last 10, when off two or more consec. wins. They're also 3-7 ATS their last 10, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Chargers roll. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Playing in their home finale, the Seahawks showed some pride last week. That was against the lowly Lions though. This week, they're on the road and taking on a determined division rival. It's been a disappointing season and changes will be coming. Wilson always brings it. However, playing with a depleted lineup, I don't see the rest of the Hawks being able to muster the same type of energy this week. The Cards won at Dallas last game and need a win here. (A victory, combined with a Rams loss to SF would get them the division title.) Even if this game proves meaningless, the Cards aren't going to know it. They're going to go all out for the win. Regardless of what happens in the other game, heading into the playoffs off a big win is just what this team needs. They beat the Hawks by double-digits at Seattle and I look for them to do so again this afternoon. 

I'm playing on NY/Washington OVER the total. This is among the lowest totals on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. With this being a "meaningless" game, other than for pride and personal achievements, there is no reason to play conservatively. Yet, there are many offensive players looking to close their season by improving their stats. Judge is demanding his players give their best. I won with Washington 'under' last game but I'd also recently cashed with Washington 'over.' After facing Dallas and Philly in each of their last four games (two each) the Football Team will be happy to face a Giants team which has allowed 29 and 34 points, the past two weeks. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 41 and saw 59 points scored. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NY. Yes, its a "meaningless" game. Don't tell that to Joe Judge though. The Giants coach commented: "I expect to see the effort from the opening kickoff to the final whistle from our team. That's how we play around here . . . These guys have gone through a lot of adversity this year. There have been a lot of times that they could have tapped out, but this team has emptied the tank every week in preparation. They emptied the tank for each other and for the fans, to represent them every time they take the field." Judge went on to say: "We've had great energy at practice. We're going to go out there and embrace this opportunity, not look back and say we wish we had done it differently." The Giants haven't forgotten that Washington beat them by a single point, on a last second field goal, in the first meeting. Barkley is back and looking for a second straight 100 yard game. He commented: "We've got to take care of business this week. That's what's the most important thing is right now, finishing off on a high note. Only one more opportunity with this group of men in this building, so finish off on a high note." While I expect the Giants to win this one outright, it's worth noting that five of Washington's six victories, including all three of its road wins, have been by six or fewer points. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. There's a perception that the Cowboys will want this one more than the Eagles. I'm not certain that's the case. Yet, that perception has led to us getting a very generous amount of points with the Eagles. I feel that's where the value lies. With a win, Dallas can potentially move up. However, that would require both Arizona and the Rams losing. Either way, they're out of the running for the #1 seed. So, the value of winning this game for them is debatable. The same can be said of the Eagles. They can only climb as high as #6. In other words, both teams should place a priority on staying healthy and gaining some extra rest. Note that while Philadelphia has a number of players dealing with Covid issues, Dallas has a number of players nursing injuries. Again, staying healthy should be a priority. Yet, its still a divisional battle between two hated rivals. The Eagles are at home and looking to avenge an earlier blowout loss at Dallas. I expect the players on the field to give everything they've got. The Eagles have won three of their past five home games with the Cowboys and both the losses came by seven or less. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on KC/Denver UNDER the total. The Chiefs are off a high-scoring game with the Bengals and have been on an 'over' streak. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high total for Saturday afternoon's game, at Denver. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Chiefs know they can score; the offense is in good shape, entering the playoffs. They'd like their defense to have some momentum/confidence though and Denver figures to be the perfect opponent for that. The Broncos have real trouble scoring, regardless of who's behind center. (With Bridgewater out and Lock getting hurt last week, they're likely down to Rypien.) They've failed to score more than 13 points in any of their past three games. While the Bengals lit them up, the Chiefs have still held three of their past five opponents to 10 points or less and six of their past eight opponents to 14 or less. Though they may have nothing to play for, the Broncos are still going to play hard defensively. They don't want to get blown out in front of the home fans. The UNDER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Denver allowed 30 or more points in its previous game. The last time they allowed 30 or more, the Broncos responded by holding the Chargers to 13 points in their next game. After they gave up 34 to those same Chargers last week, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on Clev/Pittsburgh OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 43. We're working with a lower O/U number on Monday night. In what could be Rothlisberger's last game here, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Browns offense, much healthier than its been in recent games, will be happy to go up against a struggling Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers gave up 36 points last game. That's two of their last three games where they gave up 36. Eight of their past 12 games have produced a minimum of 43 points. Big Ben and co. are fortunate to face a Cleveland defense missing both of its starting safeties. The last time that these teams played here was last January. The O/U line was in the 40s, yet they combined for 85 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Steelers allowed more than 350 yards in their previous game. 

I'm playing on NE/JAX OVER the total. This is quite a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. I said the same thing in each of the Jags' last two games. That proved to be accurate both times; they combined with the Jets for 47 points and the Texans for 46. True, this is a much better defense and Belichick is known for his success against rookie QBs. That doesn't mean that the games are necessarily low-scoring though. The last time that the Pats faced a rookie QB, they combined with the Jets for 67 points. Before that, their previous game against a rookie QB was against Houston; they combined with the Texans for 47. Both games finished above the total. That game against the Texans also happened to be the only other time that the Pats were off b2b SU losses, as they are here. Facing a Jags defense which gives up the 27th most points per game in the league, the Pats will be looking to put up a big number. Look for them to do just that, the Jags chipping in enough to send the final combined score below the low number. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Washington UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' when these teams met a couple of weeks ago. That O/U line was considerably lower than this one though. I feel that this afternoon's higher line is providing excellent value. Washington is much healthier than it was for the 12/21 game. That's on both sides of the ball though. Washington was fortunate to get off to an early lead in the first game and that forced Philadelphia to score to come back. Even with a healthier offense, I expect the Football Team to have trouble scoring against a determined Eagles defense, which is playing its best football. The Eagles have allowed 10, 17, 18 and 13 points, their past four games. Again, Washington was "fortunate" to even get 17. The Eagles have quietly moved into the #1 spot (taking the lead from the Titans) in terms of rushing attempts, per game. They're now running the ball 32.3 times per game. (Washington ranks #12 in that category.) Of course, frequent running plays keep the clock moving. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 4-0 the past four times that they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards in their previous game. The Football Team, for its part, has seen the UNDER go 5-0 the past five times that it scored 15 or fewer points, the previous game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Baylor/Ole Miss OVER the total. Both teams closed out the regular season on 'under' streaks. Those results have kept this O/U line in the 50s, when it otherwise could have easily been in the 60s. Note that Ole Miss games average 64.9 ppg. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both these offenses can put up big numbers. Baylor averages 32.5 ppg. At 35.9 ppg, Ole Miss averages even more. Admittedly, the Baylor defense is solid. However, its not dominant like a Georgia or Alabama defense. The Bears still gave up double-digits in points in each of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rebel defense is mediocre, at best. The Rebels allowed at least 14 points in all 12 games this season. Even Austin Peay scored 17 against them. Ole Miss coach Kiffin is known for his tendency to play aggressively. He doesn't mind rolling the dice on fourth down. That'll often lead to points, for and against. On the season, they allowed an average of 25 ppg. Six of the past nine Sugar Bowls have seen at least 54 points scored. Last year's game produced 77 points. They likely won't get that many this year but they'll get "enough." Go with the Over.

I'm playing on Iowa/Kentucky UNDER the total. We saw some lower-scoring games yesterday and I expect that to continue for this afternoon's Citrus Bowl. This O/U line is low for good reason; Iowa can have real trouble scoring. The Hawkeyes managed only three points last game. That's three times in their last seven games that they scored seven or less. While the offense is far from dominant, the Hawkeyes defense is typically solid. Kentucky got involved in a couple of high-scoring games down the stretch. However the Wildcats are also capable of playing stingy defense. They've allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Earlier, they held Florida to 13 and South Carolina to 10. Look for a low-scoring, defensive affair.

I'm playing on Georgia/Michigan UNDER the total. Naturally, both offenses are very good. The defenses are arguably even better though. Prior to the Alabama game, the Bulldogs were giving up nothing. No other team, except for the Crimson Tide, scored more than 17 against them. For the season, they allowed an average of only 9.5 points. The Michigan defense was also stout. They closed the season by limiting Iowa to three points. On the season, the Wolverines allowed an average of only 16.1 points. The Wolverines are going to run the ball but that's going to be tough against a Georgia defense which will be loading up against the run. The Bulldogs are also going to be running the ball regularly. That's going to help keep the clock moving and ultimately lead to a low-scoring affair. The UNDER is 4-1-1 the last six times that Georgia was off a SU loss and the UNDER is also 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulldogs were favored in a bowl game. Look for those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. 

I'm playing on WSU/CMU OVER the total. The Chippewas can score points with the best of them. They scored more than 30 points in each of their final five games. The defense allowed 30 or more points in three of those games, too. In two games against teams from Power Five conferences, they allowed 34 and 49 points. The Cougars offense really got clicking towards the end of the year. WSU scored 40 and 44 points in its final two games. The last time that they faced a team from outside the Pac 12, they won 44-24. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that the Cougars were listed as favorites. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. Thanks for coming out Rutgers. While the line may appear large, this is a mismatch. While it was a disappointing end, the Demon Deacons had a great season. They only lost three games. They were 2-0 SU/ATS after losing the first two. Off the loss to Pittsburgh, they're going to be looking to run up the score in this one. After the first loss, they bounced back to win and cover against NC State, scoring 45 points. After their second loss, the Deacons went on the road and hammered Boston College 41-10. Three of Rutgers' last four games resulted in losses of 24 or more points. While the Knights average 20.5 ppg, the Deacons average more than 41. While the Knights would love to show that they belong here, they don't. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With this game being played in Nashville, the Vols will have the edge in fan support. The Vols have a strong running game and they'll be licking their chops to go up against the relatively soft Purdue run defense. The Boilermakers are hurt by "opt outs" more than the Vols, as well as injuries. Tennessee lost a good one in Taylor but Purdue lost both Bell and Karlaftis, a pair of players which can't be replaced. Those are just two of many players that won't be available for the Boilers. The last time that the Vols played with more than a week's worth or rest, they scored 45 in a win against Kentucky. Over their last two games, the Vols scored more than 100 combined points. They're going to put up a big number again this afternoon and ultimately, Purdue won't be able to keep up. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UNC. The SEC has taken its lumps so far. I expect that to continue this morning. Sam Howell gives the Heels a significant edge at QB. He's a future NFL player. Prior to this season, he was being talked up as a top 5 pick, as well as a Heisman frontrunner. While his stock has fallen, he gets one final chance to remind everyone about how good he can be. It helps that he'll be up against a depleted South Carolina team. While the Heels have plenty of experience at the QB position, the Gamecocks do not. Their starting QB left and they'll be going with unproven Zeb Noland. South Carolina is an ugly 7-16 ATS as an underdog the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 1-8 ATS mark when listed as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect Howell and the Heels to pull away for the double-digit win. 

I'm playing MARYLAND on the ML. With the pointspread above three but the moneyline still at a relatively reasonable price, I'm electing to make a rare ML bowl play here. These former conference rivals will meet at Yankee Stadium. V-Tech has the longest streak (29) of years which it has been bowl eligible. That's quite an accomplishment. Maryland is favored for good reason though. QB Tagovailoa, younger brother of the Dolphins' QB, threw for 3595 yards this season while connecting for 24 TD passes. He's great at extending plays and gives the Terps an advantage on offense. It should be noted that the Hokies are missing a lot. Injuries, transfers, opt-outs.  Their secondary wasn't that good to begin with. Maryland gets it done. 

I'm playing on Houston/Auburn OVER the total. Cougars vs. Tigers. This is the second lowest O/U line of today's five bowl games. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Tigers are without some players, who opted out. That won't prevent them from scoring though. They come in with a chip on their shoulder. The Tigers averaged 29.6 ppg, despite facing SEC defenses. Having just fired his offensive coordinator, and now taking over the Auburn play-calling, Bryan Harsin is obviously going to want his offense to make him look good. The Tigers are going to need to score, as the Cougars will surely be doing so. Houston averaged more 37 ppg. Like Auburn, the Cougars come in with a chip on their shoulder. Before being held to 20 points by Cincinnati, the Cougars had scored more than 30 points in eight straight games and at least 28, in 11 straight. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NO. As you probably heard, or figured by this line, the Saints are dealing with Covid issues. At this time, few teams aren't. The Dolphins haven't been hit nearly as hard as NO but they, too, are dealing with some cases. Some teams have been folding. Others, however, have risen to the occasion. I expect the well-coached Saints to fall into the latter category. Book has the advantage of having Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Yes, the Dolphins are hot. Keep in mind that the Saints just blanked the defending world champs though. Also, don't forget that Miami is 2-4 away from home. Those wins came by an average of four points and were both against divisional opponents. They've lost all three road games against teams from outside the AFC East. The Saints are 10-4 ATS their last 14 as underdogs. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on NEVADA. We're getting a lot of points to work. That's due in large part to the fact that the Wolfpack offense will be without its starting QB and top pass catching options. The fact that Nevada has an interim head coach is also factored in. Needless to say, those factors are all significant. That said, the Wolfpack still have several things going for them. QB Cox has been Strong's backup for a long time now (was last year, too) and will be comfortable. He knows this is his opportunity and he'll be facing a weak Western Michigan secondary. Cox also has a pair of decent running backs to hand the ball to. Its on the other side of the ball, however, where I feel that Nevada will have the real edge. The Wolfpack have the stronger defensive backs and their defensive line is outstanding. It's also worth noting that Nevada should enjoy a solid advantage in the special teams department. The Broncos really struggled in their punting game, both kicking and returning. Their field goal kicking wasn't good, either. Nevada began October with a 10-point win at Boise State. Since that time, the Pack have only lost three games. All three losses were less than field goal. Grab the points.  

I'm playing on Washington/Dallas UNDER the total. The Cowboys have quietly started playing very good defense. They allowed just six points last game and have allowed an average of only 13, their past three games. Washington managed only 237 yards last game. While Heinecke is expected to return, the Football Team is still missing a lot. The Cowboys had a 24-0 lead in the last game. Washington benefitted from a pick-six in coming back to make the final score (27-20) respectable. The Cowboys are going to be careful not to cough up the lead in this one. I expect a heavy dose of the run. Likewise, Washington knows its best hope is to try and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The Football Team, too, should be generous with its share of running plays. Note that both teams rank in the top 10, (they're #9 and #10) in terms of rushing attempts per game. Off last week's 44-point game, Washington has seen nine straight games finish with 48 or fewer points. Dallas, meanwhile, has seen its last three games produce 27, 47 and 44. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than some will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Jacksonville/NY OVER the total. This is a low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. I said the same thing about Jacksonville's last game. The Jags would allow 30 points to the lowly Texans. While they scored only 16, it was more than enough to finish above the low number. Here's another case where the Jags are facing a team which is strictly playing for pride. No reason for either team to play conservatively. While the Jags give up 26.4 ppg, 27th in the league, the Jets give up 30.6 ppg. That's the worst mark in the entire NFL. The Jets' 391.9 yards allowed per game also ranks dead last. Remember, these QBs were taken #1 and #2 last year. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Det/Atl OVER the total. I felt somewhat fortunate to cash with the Lions' 'under' in their last game. After all, if someone had told me that they were going to score 30 against Arizona, I wouldn't have liked my chances of the game staying below the number. This week, we're working with a lower O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It looks like Goff is unlikely to go. That's unfortunate for the Lions, but is also a big part of the reason why we've got a low number. It could easily be higher. Should Boyle get the call, he'll be throwing against a poor Atlanta secondary. Just as the Lions will be up against a poor defense, the same is true of the Falcons. Indeed, neither defense is good. The Lions allow 26.1 ppg. The Falcons allow 27.4. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on LA/Hou OVER the total. The Texans are dealing with a lot of Covid issues. Don't expect the Chargers to show them any sympathy though. The Chargers moved the ball effectively against the Chiefs last week but struggled to score TD's. They'll be looking to "get healthy" with an offensive explosion in this one. While the Chargers may come close to exceeding the total all on their own, they won't have to. Though missing some players, the Texans aren't just going to roll over. They scored 30 points last week. Both teams allow more than 26 ppg. Four of the past five meetings have finished with 45 or more points. With the Chargers off three straight games of 58 or more combined points, look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Lions got a big win for their home fans last week. Now, the Falcons will have their turn. Atlanta has had some heartbreakers this season but has continued to play hard. Now, the Falcons finally catch a break as Detroit will likely be without Goff. The Falcons have been on the road for each of their past two games. Their past two games were against the Bucs and the Patriots, two very tough teams. Needless to say, the Lions represent a big step down in class. Detroit lost 38-10 the last time it was on the road. The Falcons have won two of their last four. They haven't forgotten that the Lions beat them on a last-second Stafford TD pass last season. Payback time. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The Bucs didn't score a single point last game. Now, they're playing on the road against another hungry divisional rival. Importantly, Brady is now with a number of his top weapons. In my opinion, given the venue and the situation, asking them to lay double-digits is asking too much. This is the Panthers' home finale. They know they'll face these same Bucs, at Tampa, on Jan. 9th. They're going to be highly motivated. The Bucs are now 2-5 ATS on the road. While they're only 2-5 here, four of the Panthers' five home losses have been by eight or less. While we have to go back quite a few years, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on Indianapolis/Arizona UNDER the total. While I respect both these offenses, I feel that the O/U number is generously high. These teams both like to run the ball a lot. With Taylor running away with the rushing title, it's not surprising that the Colts rank second in rushing yards and 4th in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Some might be surprised to learn that the Cards are right behind them. They rank #5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Of course, with both teams running the ball with regularity, the clock is more likely to keep moving. Both defenses are very capable, too. Both rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed The Colts held the Pats to 17 points  last week. In their previous game, they blanked the Jags. The Cards haven't been happy with their defensive effort lately. However, they still rank #5 in terms of points allowed per game and #7 in terms of rushing yards per game. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cards were off a loss. Look for those numbers to improve as this one ends up lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on GB. At the time, pushing last week's game against the Raiders back probably seemed like a good idea. It gave the Browns a legit chance to win that game. They very nearly did, too. Ultimately, however, they fell short. It was a devastating loss. Coach Stefanski said the following: "I'm incredibly disappointed with the result last night. Very, very frustrating to not come away with a win. But it's not a lack of effort from anyone involved. I thought the coaches and players that were out there fought their rear-ends off. I appreciate that, but it ultimately didn't get the job done, and that's what stings the most." Off that "incredibly disappointing" result, the Browns now play on a very short week, at perhaps the toughest venues in the league. While Cleveland players are returning, there's still been a lot of scrambling. The situation is far from ideal. The Packers are the only team with a perfect home record this season. All six of their home wins have come by a minimum of eight points. Five of the victories were by double-digits. Catching the Browns off a heartbreaker, still dealing with Covid and playing on an extra short week, expect another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less.  They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing SF on the ML. I don't typically play many moneylines in the NFL. In fact, I didn't make any ML plays in November and this is my first (and very likely, my last) of December. That said, in this case, I feel there's value there. Though I do expect SF to cover, I also can't help but remember that the 49'ers last road game was decided by a field goal, or that the Titans have seen no fewer than five games decided by three points or less. The Titans' offense has really missed Henry. Of course, they're also very banged-up at the receiver position. Either way, Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games, 13 or less in three of those. That's going to make it tough sledding against a SF team which has scored 23 or more in six straight, more than 30 in four of those. The 49'ers are arguably better on both sides of the ball. I also feel that they've got a coaching edge in this game. They're 17-6 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on SF/Ten UNDER the total. The Titans' offense has really missed Henry. Of course, they're also very banged-up at the receiver position. Either way, Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games, 13 or less in three of those. After scoring 24 or more points in eight straight games, they've scored less than 24 in five straight. During that span, the defense has stepped up. The Titans have allowed just 19 combined points the past two games and 22 or fewer points in five of their last six. Even without Henry, they're going to run the ball frequently. In fact, they still run the ball more times per game than any team in the league. The 49ers are also going to run with regularlity. They rank seventh in terms of rushing  attempts (and rushing yards) per game. That'll keep the clock moving. Both the 49ers and the Titans are tough to run against though. So, they'll be running but the yards won't be coming easily. The 49'ers allowed just 13 points last game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on UNT/Miami Ohio OVER the total. Kent State's game (52-38 final) against Wyoming reminded us how high-scoring these games with MAC teams can be. Speaking of Kent State, that's the team which Miami Ohio faced in its most recent game. That one finished with 95 points, a 48-47 final. Over its final six games, Miami scored 34, 24, 33, 45, 34 and 37. North Texas can also really put points on the board. The Mean Green scored 45 in their last game and 49 in their previous one. They've scored 20 or more in eight straight games, 30 or more in five of those. UNT is vulnerable to giving up big plays and Miami is capable of connecting on them. On the other side, the Redhawks are going to have real trouble slowing down the Mean Green. Expect another shootout.

I'm playing on Army/Missouri OVER the total. While the Knights stalled in the Navy game, they're now facing a less capable defense. I expect them to bounce back with a much better offensive showing this afternoon. Prior to scoring just 13 at Navy, Army had scored 31, 33 and 63 points, in its previous three games. The only other time this season that the Knights scored 14 or less was in their loss at Wisconsin. They bounced back and scored 56 their next time out. Unfortunately, for Army fans, they gave up 70 in the same game. The Tigers do not have a good defense. That's not just because they play in the SEC either. They gave up at least 23 points in every single game this season, an average of 34.7 ppg. The offense can score though. Despite their schedule including the likes of Georgia, the Tigers average 29.7 ppg. While it should be mentioned that Brady Cook will be Missouri's starting QB, I don't expect it to change what the Tigers do. The last time that the Knights were in the Armed Forces Bowl, they scored 70 points. Look for another relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Washington/Philadelphia OVER the total. It still remains to be seen who Washington's QB will be. These are certainly strange times. Regardless who starts at QB, don't expect "Riverboat Ron" to play things much differently. Weather can be an issue at this time of year. However, it shouldn't be a factor. It'll be cold. However, there won't be wind. Neither offense has been slowed down too much, of late. The Eagles scored 33 in their last game. They've scored at least 30 in three of their past four and at least 21 points in 10 of their last 11. Washington scored 20 last time out and has scored at least 17 in five straight. Three of the past four meetings have finished with at least 44 points and the OVER is 5-2 the last seven times that Washington played here. More of the same on Tuesday night. 

I'm playing on Kent State / Wyoming OVER the total. There should be plenty of points in this afternoon's bowl game. Seven of Kent State's last eight games finished with greater than 60 points. They scored 30 or more themselves in seven of those. Five of those finished with more than 84! Wyoming just gave up 38 points to Hawaii. So, the Flashes figure to have another big day. The Cowboys should too, however. They scored 44 or more points three different times this season. All three of those opponents, that they scored 44 or more against, were "bowl teams," too. They scored 44 against Utah State, 45 vs. Ball State and 50 vs. NIU. So, they should absolutely be able to put up another big number against a porus KSU defense which allowed an average of 35.1 ppp, 125th worst in the country. Kent State also gives up 467 ypg, 123rd worst. Expect plenty of fireworks.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams last met exactly one year ago, on December 20th, 2020. The Bears were underdogs but won outright, by six points. I'm expecting history to repeat itself. While the Vikings have risen to the occasion against some of the league's better teams, they've quietly gone 0-7 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. They lost their last two road games (Detroit, SF) outright. Note that 12 of Minnesota's 13 games this season have been decided by "single-digits." The only time that the Vikings won by more than eight points was back in September, a home game against Seattle. While they came up short against GB and Arizona, a pair of tough teams, the Bears are still battling hard. Prior to those two losses, their previous three games had all been decided by a field goal, or less. While the Bears are dealing with some Covid issues, that's the way things are these days. The Vikes have problems of their own. As Chicago coach Nagy noted: "It's the next-man-up mentality, not just for the players, but for coaches, too, is the way that I look at it. In these types of moments, what you've got to do is try to stay really positive, take care of your body, stay together and realize that we're not the only ones right now in that." I'm expecting Nagy's troops to leave it all on the field and, in what should be a close game, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Minnesota OVER the total. I've had success with the 'over' with both these teams recently and I feel that this number will again prove to be too low. The Vikings score a lot of points. They also give up a lot. They average 26.5 ppg and allow 25.6 ppg. They've played even higher-scoring games lately. Each of their last six games has finished with at least 47 combined points. Those games had scores of 64, 56, 60, 65, 47 and 65. Ten of their 13 games have produced at least 47 points. Yet, due to the fact that they're playing the Bears, the O/U line is still relatively low. However, the Bears aren't as stingy as they've been in the past. They're allowing 25.5 ppg. Last week, they allowed 45 points. They scored 31 though. That 75-point affair was preceded by a 55-point game. The most recent meeting between these teams was exactly one year ago, to the day. That 12/20/20 game saw consistent scoring throughout each quarter (both teams scored in all four quarters) and finished with 60 combined points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on TULSA. These teams have identical 6-6 records. The points, for and against, are similar, too. However, the Golden Hurricane are laying more than a touchdown for good reason. Both teams closed the season by playing their best football. The Golden Hurricane won their final three games. The Monarchs won their final five. While the stats may be similar, its important to recognize that the Golden Hurricane played a far more difficult schedule. Tulsa's winning streak included a victory over SMU. Four of their six losses came against the likes of Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Houston. ODU didn't face anything remotely close to that. The Monarchs' three toughest opponents were Wake Forest, Liberty and WKU. Those games didn't go well for them. The Monarchs lost by scores of 42-10, 45-17 and 43-20. Regardless of how this game goes, it's still a successful season for the Monarchs. That's not the case for the Golden Hurricane. They need a win here. They're a veteran team with the more balanced offense and the superior defense. Expect a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on NO. The Saints offense got back on track last week. They scored 30 points en route to a dominating performance. The offense will carry the confidence gained into this evening's game. It helps that they'll face a Tampa defense which is banged-up in the secondary. Remember, they scored 36 in the earlier game against the Bucs. The Saints defense all got on track last week, allowing just nine points. They permitted only 78 yards on the ground and just 256 overall. True, that was against an inferior opponent. Still, it restored order and momentum. The Saints had the bad game against the Bills on Thanksgiving. Also, way back in September, they had a bad game at Carolina. However, that's only two games out of 13. None of the other 11 games resulted in a loss of greater than 11 points. The Bucs have seen five of their last six decided by 13 or less and four of those six were decided by 10 or less. The Saints have long given the Bucs problems in the regular season and I say they give them all they can handle again here. Grab the points.

I'm playing on NO/TB OVER the total. The Saints offense got back on track last week. They scored 30 points en route to a dominating performance. The offense will carry the confidence gained into this evening's game. It helps that they'll face a Tampa defense which is banged-up in the secondary. Remember, they scored 36 in the earlier game against the Bucs. The Saints permitted only 78 yards on the ground and just 256 overall, last week. However, it's worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that NO had allowed less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game. They're obviously up against a far more formidable offense here. The champs have scored 30 or more in four straight games. In fact, they average 31.5 ppg, which is #1 in the league. At home, that number climbs to a whopping 37.5 ppg. They've scored 30 or more in every game here, going over the 40 mark more than once. It's true that Coach Payton will not be on the sidelines and that a defensive coordinator will be calling the shots. They're not going to do anything differently though. This season's earlier meeting saw 63 points scored; three of the past four meetings have produced at least 47 combined points. Expect another high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Houston/Jacksonville OVER the total. This is a very low total. The lowest on the board, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While neither offense has performed well (the reason for the low number) these are also two porous defenses. Both offenses will be looking to pad their stats against the weakest defense which they will have seen in some time. The Texans allow 27.4 ppg, third worst in the NFL. The Jags aren't much better as they allow 26.2 With neither team going to the playoffs, there's little reason to play conservatively. This season's first meeting produced 58 points and each of the past three meetings have seen at least 44 points scored. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Detroit UNDER the total. I've won with both of these teams to go 'over' recently. I won with the Lions 'over' in their game against the Vikings two weeks ago and the Cards 'over' in their game against the Bears, in the same week. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair in this one though. While they did have success moving the ball against the Vikings, the Lions were back to their old ways on offense last week. They managed only 10 points. They've scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Throw out the Minnesota game (Arizona is a lot stingier than Minnesota) and they've scored an average of only 11 points, over their past five. Taking Hopkins out of the offense makes Arizona less dangerous. While the Lions failed to cover last week, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they were off an ATS loss. It should also be mentioned that the UNDER is 6-1-1 (or 7-1) the past eight times that Arizona was listed as a road favorite. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Needless to say, the Patriots have been playing great. I expect their winning streak to come to an end on Saturday night though. The Colts are off a 31-0 victory of their own. They come in extremely confident, on both sides of the ball. In their last game, the Patriots just beat Buffalo, in a huge divisional game. They'll face those same Bills again in their next game. That figures to make this a difficult spot. While the Pats are 1-4 ATS their past five against teams from the AFC South, the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last six against team from the AFC East. This season, they've beaten all the other teams in New England's division by double-digits. As for that same Buffalo team that the Pats beat 14-10, the Colts hammered them 41-15, at Buffalo. Colts keep rolling. 

I'm playing on NE/Indy UNDER the total. The Colts and Patriots met nine times from 2009 to 2018. Every single game finished 'over' the total. Each finished with more than 50 points. That's all "ancient history" though; this game is going to be different. It'll feature a heavy dose of the run and two stingy defenses. The Patriots held the Bills to a mere 10 points last week. They've been playing dominant defense. Over the past five games, they've allowed a combined 36 points, an average of just seven per game. Not surprisingly, they rank #1 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. The Colts have shown that they can also be very stingy. They didn't allow a single point last week. While that was against a weak Houston team, a shutout is still impressive. They're top 10 in the league (9th) in terms of points allowed per game. Both teams also rank in the top 10, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Colts are 5th and the Pats are 7th. Naturally, frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-0 the past five times that the Pats played a road game in December. 

I'm playing on BYU. I respect the Blazers and they came through for me in a big way this season. That said, I don't feel that they're in the same class as the Cougars. The question, in some of these "lesser" bowl games, is whether or not the "bigger name" team is motivated or not. Indeed, the Cougars had been hoping for bigger things. In cases where they're not motivated, the team with inferior talent can sometimes surprise. In this case, with a chance to become the first BYU team in 15 years to have b2b 11-win seasons, I expect the Cougars to still have plenty of "hunger." Note that BYU just signed its coach (Kalani Sitake) to a longterm deal, where there had been rumors that he might leave. BYU QB Hall said this of how coach Sitake had his team fired up: "He has kept so much focus on this game because that is just the type of man he is. He invests everything he has in us as players and making sure he prepares us to play the best we can. Every day has been the same thing as we approach it as a team. It is just about focusing on this game and realizing it is the most important bowl game we have ever played because it is the one we have next. Kalani has been pumping energy into us and the other coaches have done a great job of continually harping on the importance of this next game. I think as players we are taking it and running with it. I think the energy will stay the same because that is how we have been talking about it over the course of the past couple weeks." BYU receiver Romney added: "Getting to 11 wins is huge. This has been one of the hardest schedules that BYU has ever played. We have played and won against the most Power Five teams in BYU history. Cementing our legacy would be awesome, and to get 11 wins would be an amazing thing. … It would be unheard of. I think it would be really cool to go out with a bang." I've done a good job of going on/against BYU. I won with the Cougars when they put up 66 points in their win over Virginia. I also won by going against them in their last game, when they won but didn't cover against USC. I say they come in with a chip on their shoulder and win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on APP STATE. Both offenses are excellent. However, they achieve their success in different ways. The Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball. The Mountaineers are going to run the ball. While both figure to move the ball effectively, I believe that Appalachian State's ability to control the clock, something which Western Kentucky is unable to do, will prove significant. OF course, the Mountaineers' superior defense will also be a factor. I backed the Mountaineers in last year's bowl win. Facing North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, they ran Appalachian State for 506 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13 yards per carry. Including that blowout, they're 5-1 ATS their last six neutral site games. The Mountaineers won't match those ridiculous numbers but the're still going to have some big ones. Keep in mind that WKU allowed more than 300 rushing yards to UTSA in its last game. UTSA had a 37 mins to 23 mins time of possession advantage, a familiar theme for WKU. I played against the Hilltoppers in that one and I believe that their inability to stop the run will be their downfall again. Lay the small number. 

I'm playing on KC/LA OVER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 55. We're working with a lower O/U number here. I feel that i'll prove to be too low. Neither offense is going be easy to stop. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week. In their last road game, they scored 41. While the KC defense has been tough recently, it should be noted that the Chiefs are missing a few important players on that side of the ball. They'll face a Chargers team which scored 37 points last week, after scoring 41 in their previous game. They've scored 37, 41, 20, 24, 47 and 28 points their last six games here. This season's first meeting produced 54 points. It's worth noting that the "rematch" (second game) has been higher-scoring, by at least 10 points, when these teams have played, each of the past two seasons. Last year's second game produced 59 points. 

I'm playing on the UNDER for the 1st Half. Despite having a low O/U line, last night's game saw 48 points scored by halftime and 75 overall. That was fine by me, as I had a play on the 'over.' Tonight, however, I'm expecting a much different start. Importantly, we're also working with a much higher O/U number than we were last night. The Rams are loaded on defense; they allowed just seven points last week. The Cardinals have even better defensive numbers than LA. They're allowing only 18.6 ppg on the season. That's the fourth best mark in the league. With a final score of 37-20, this season's first meeting was fairly high-scoring. That was also the case with last year's first meeting; it had a final score of 38-28. However, the second meeting was an entirely different story. It had a final score of only 18-7. It should be noted that game ended up a battle of backup QB's, as Goff was out and Murray got hurt. All the same, I'm still expecting tonight's "rematch" to again be lower-scoring. Though I also like the 'under' for the full game, these teams are capable of some late game fireworks and therefore I prefer the first half option. Recall last year's game here, almost exactly one year ago. That Dec 6th game had a modest 21 points in the first half but the teams combined for 45 in the second half. Expect another relatively slow start, the final score for the first half, staying below the number. 

I'm playing Chicago/GB OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Last weekend, we saw a very windy game between the Bills and Patriots. While it's always a bit chilly at Lambeau in December, there won't be big winds like we saw in that game. I expect the offenses to have success. Last week, the Bears combined with Arizona for 55 points. They gave up 33 of those as their defense continues to rank near the bottom of the pack, in terms of points allowed.  Meanwhile, the Packers are off b2b games which finished in the mid-60's. Last season's meeting here had an O/U line of 44. The teams combined for 66 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Houston/Seattle OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Texans do not have a good defense. They allow 26.9 ppg. That's third worst in the league. They also rank fifth worst in terms of yards allowed (379) per game. Some might be surprised to learn that the Seattle defense is even worse, in that category. In fact, at 396.2 allowed per game, the Hawks allow the second most yards in the entire NFL. So, while the offenses haven't been the best, they'll both be working against a "bottom five" defense. Yet, we've got the lowest O/U line on the board. The last meeting between these teams saw 79 points scored. They're unlikely to get that many this time but they will get more than 40. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These teams just faced each other on 11/28, at Baltimore. Playing at home, the Ravens were able to grind out a 16-10 win. The Browns have some things going for them in this afternoon's rematch, starting with the venue. Playing at home makes a big difference for both teams. They're 4-2 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. Likewise, Baltimore is 5-1 at home but 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road. Its also important to mention that the Browns had last week off. The Ravens, meanwhile, were involved in a battle (20-19 loss) that came down to the final play, with rival Pittsburgh. We already saw that game take a toll on the Steelers, as they weren't very good at all on Thursday. I expect it to also have an effect on the Ravens. Note that Jackson was sacked seven times in the game. Also, note that the Ravens saw all-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey go down to injury. Meanwhile, Mayfield and the Browns will benefit from the extra week of preparation and recovery time. Like all teams, Cleveland is dealing with a number of injuries. That extra week off to recovery is huge. Last season's game between these teams was a wild (47-42) affair, won by the Ravens. This year, schedule in their favor, the Browns get some payback.

I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It's true. Historically, this has been a low-scoring series. We're working with a lower O/U line than any of the recent meetings though. The last 10 have all ranged between 36 and 55.5. This year, Army is very tough to stop. The Knights average 35.5 ppg. In fact, both offenses come in with momentum. While I'm not saying they will, either is capable of going over the very low number by itself. The Knights have scored 31, 33 and 63 their past three games. Meanwhile, Navy scored 38 and 35 in its last two games. Army games avg 58.3 points on the season. Navy games average 50. The 'under' streak comes to an end this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER the total. I've done a pretty good job of recognizing when Pittsburgh's O/U lines are too low. For a game against the Vikings, I believe that'll prove to be the case this evening. The Steelers saw their first four games of the season stay below the total. I recognized that those results led to some really O/U numbers. Since that time, I've played on four Steeler totals, all of them 'overs,' going 4-0. Overall, five of their last eight games have finished above the number. I also played on the Vikings 'over' in their loss against Detroit last week. Here's a small excerpt of what I said: "...The Viking offense is tough to stop. The Vikes have scored 26 or more in four straight games. The defense is far from dominant though. The Vikings allow more than 25 ppg ..." Sure enough, the Vikes scored 27 but allowed 29. Their games are averaging 51.1 ppg on the season. Off that upset loss, note that the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that the Vikings were off an ATS loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Bills might run away with the division. The Patriots have found their way though. They enter this game on a 6-game winning streak. Currently, New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams will meet again in Week 16, at Foxboro. The Patriots have indeed fared well on the road. However, their road record includes wins against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. All those teams are below .500 at home and overall. The Chargers are the only winning team that the Pats beat on the road. The Chargers are just 3-3 at home, too. So, yes, the Pats have played well on the road. However, they haven't faced a team with a home record as good as Buffalo's. While the Bills stumbled a couple of times in November, they closed the month strong. In addition to playing at home, I like that they've had some extra preparation time for this one. Over the past few seasons, the Pats are 4-6 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that span, the Bills are 12-5 ATS when doing so. The Bills allowed a mere 190 yards in their last game. Look for them to be at their best tonight, improving to 10-1-2 ATS their last 13, after holding their previous opponent to 250 or fewer yards. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cardinals have alternated wins and losses over the last month. Off their last divisional win, they lost 34-10. Off a divisional win in their last game, I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon. Though they missed out on the cover, the Bears got back on track Thanksgiving Day with a win over the Lions. That gives them some positive momentum. Now, they're back home and getting more than a touchdown at the betting window. Prior to the win over the Lions, the Bears were off b2b losses of three points or less. So, that's three straight games decided by a fg or less. Look for another close one, the Cards falling to 3-7 ATS their last 10 games in December. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Arizona OVER the total. This is a low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Note that both teams play with extra rest. The Cards are off a bye while Chicago played a Thursday game. The Cards have seen three of their last four finish with at least 44 points. They threw for 318 yards last game; the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that they threw for 250 or more yards in their previous game. On the season, their games are averaging 46.6 points. While the Bears are off a pair of low-scoring games, their previous two finished in the 50s.  The last time that these teams met here, they combined for 71 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Detroit OVER the total. The O/U line was 50 when these teams met earlier. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 53.5. We're working with a lower number here. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Viking offense is tough to stop. The Vikes have scored 26 or more in four straight games. The defense is far from dominant though. The Vikings allow more than 25 ppg. The Lions can relate. They allow more than 26 ppg. The OVER is 5-0 the last five times that the Vikings played a road game against a team with a losing home record. Last season's game here finished with 72 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Obviously, I respect the champs. While I didn't touch last week's game, I won with the Bucs in their Monday night game against the Giants, two weeks ago. This Sunday, however, I feel that they're over-valued and I believe that they're walking into a hornet's nest. Admittedly, the Falcons have had a couple of duds. Their losses against New England and Dallas were ugly. However, they responded by winning their last game. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Sunday. The 48-25 score suggests that the Bucs dominated the Falcons, in this season's first meeting. That wasn't exactly the case though. In fact, the Falcons had an edge in total yards and time of possession. The score was 28-25, entering the fourth quarter. Now, playing their second straight road game and with a big game against Buffalo on deck, the Bucs are laying double-digits on the road. They're 1-6 ATS as road favorites. That includes an 0-4 ATS record their last four on the road, when facing a team with a losing home record. This game is huge for the Falcons. Expect them to give the Bucs all they can handle for the full four quarters. 

I'm playing on Michigan/Iowa UNDER the total. While both teams have been involved in a few relatively high-scoring games recently, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Both defenses are outstanding. They allow 17.3 and 17.2 ppg, respectively. That ranks each in the top 10 in the country. They're both top 15, in terms of yards allowed per game, too. The Hawkeyes, who were held to only seven points twice this season, figure to have some trouble scoring. The Wolverines allowed 27 points last game. However, that was against Ohio State. They held their three previous opponents to an average of just 14 points. On the season, they allowed 18 or fewer points in nine of 12 games. No team has scored more than 27 against Iowa all season long. These teams last met in 2019. The score was 10-3. Their previous meeting before that had a score of 14-13. With a heavy dose of the run, from both teams, helping to chew up the clock, expect another low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on Dallas/NO UNDER the total. It wasn't a very happy Thanksgiving for either of these teams. Not for me either, for that matter. I expect both to improve defensively in this one. Prior to getting lit up by the Raiders, the Cowboys were off b2b strong defensive games. The last time that they allowed 30 or more points, they followed it up by allowing just three in their next game. Three of the Cowboys' last four road games, including each of the past two, have been low-scoring. The Saints managed just six points last week. It was the third time that they've scored less than 14 points this season. The defense remains relatively respectable though. They're allowing 22.6 ppg. That's 12th best in the NFL. (The Cowboys are right behind them at #13.) Factoring in last week's result, note that the UNDER is now 9-1-1 the last 11 times that the Saints played on a Thursday. Also, off last week's "aerial showdown," note that the UNDER is a profitable 7-1 the past eight times that Dallas had thrown for more than 250 yards in its previous game. These teams met in both 2018 and 2019. The O/U lines were 47 and 51.5. The scores were 12-10 and 13-10. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Washingon/Seattle OVER the total. Last night's game was low-scoring but there should be plenty of points on primetime tonight. Heinecke's confidence is growing and the Washington offense has come alive of late. Despite facing a pair of fairly stingy teams (TB and Carolina) the Football Team has scored 27 and 29 points, its past two games. After scoring 31 points on Halloween, the Seattle offense has stalled in two November games. Those results have worked in our favor, helping to keep this O/U line a little lower than it otherwise would have been. While it's true that the Hawks are dealing with some injuries along the line, tonight offers an excellent opportunity for Wilson to "get healthy." Washington allows 26.7 ppg, the fifth worst mark in the league. The Football Team also ranks fifth worst, in terms of yards per play. Wilson still has plenty of pride; he's been one of the best in the world for years. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improve

I'm playing on Atlanta/Jacksonville OVER the total. These teams have both been seeing their recent games finish below the total. The Jaguars have seen five straight (and eight of nine) games fall below the total. The Falcons have seen three of their past four do so. However, a look at Atlanta's four opponents shows that they're all teams with playoff aspirations, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints and Panthers. Now, they finally get to face a non-playoff team. That should absolutely help to get the offense going. The Jags 26.2 ppg allowed ranks just 26th in the league. The Jags are thinking the same thing though, as the Falcons' defense is even worse. At 28.8 ppg allowed, Atlanta ranks 31st (2nd worst) in the league. True, the Falcons managed only 165 total yards (120 passing, 45 rushing) last week. That suited me just fine. Again, the Jags aren't the Patriots. Look for a big bounce back performance on offense and the OVER to improve to 9-1-1 the last 11 times that Atlanta had managed less than 150 passing yards in its previous game. 

I'm playing on NY. I successfully played against the Giants last game. However, that was a road game against the defending champs. Back home and stepping down in class, this one sets up a lot better for them. A look at the Giants' schedule shows that they've had to face some really tough teams. Prior to the Bucs, their last six games were against the Raiders, Chiefs, Panthers, Rams, Cowboys and Saints. To their credit, the Giants won three of those and they nearly beat the Chiefs, losing by only three. Prior to those six games, the Giants had a pair of losses, both by three or fewer points. So, last week notwithstanding, this team has been very competitive. Firing Jason Garrett should light a spark for the offense, too. While the Eagles have won a couple in a row, they're 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b SU victories. They're also 7-12 ATS as favorites, the past few seasons. The short week shouldn't both the Giants; they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off a Monday night game. This is the first meeting of the season; these teams will play again Dec. 26th. In each of the past two seasons, the first meeting in this series has been very close. The first 2019 meeting went to OT. Then, last year's first meeting was decided by a single point. The Giants would go on to win by 10 points, in the game here at NY. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a big effort and grab the points.

I'm playing on USC. Admittedly, the Trojans haven't looked too good recently. Now, they face a tough BYU team. Naturally, I respect the Cougars. They've been solid all season and they came through for me in a big way in a recent win over Virginia. Still, unlike USC, they've clinched their bowl berth. The Trojans need this win, not only to salvage some pride but also to keep their bowl hopes alive. That would get them to five wins with a game against Cal on deck. While it may seem unlikely, I'm not writing them off from winning both those games. The Trojans are still loaded with talent, as per usual. Since that home win over Virginia, the Cougars have hosted Idaho State and played at Georgia State. Those teams don't have the type of talent USC does. Prior to Georgia State, the Cougars previous road game came at Washington State and they lost. The week before that, they played on the road, at Baylor. They lost. Their three road wins came at Utah State, Georgia State and Arizona. None of those teams were strong and the Cougars were 1-2 ATS in the wins. The point that I'm trying to make is that BYU hasn't played many tough road games and it has lost when on the road against decent teams. They're 4-8 ATS their last 12 as road favorites. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay a lot of points against a talented, desperate opponent. I believe that's asking too much and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LA Tech/RICE UNDER the total. Its been a disappointing season for both these teams. Each would like to close it out with a win. Both teams having been involved in some recent high-scoring games and both having been profitable 'over' teams on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by helping to provide a generously high total. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that both teams currently have serious issues on offense, starting at QB. I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their last game. They were favored by -15.5 points. Yet, they scored only 19 in total. That was a home game against one of the worst defenses in the league, a Southern Miss team which had given up more than 500 yards against North Texas, less than two weeks before. These teams didn't play last year but they did in both 2018 and 2019. Those games had O/U lines of 53 and 48.5. The final combined scores were 41 and 43. (In the 43-point game, nine points came in OT.) Look for this one to also prove to be lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. Things sure fell apart for the Longhorns. They began the season by blowing out a solid LA Lafayette team. Through five games, they were 4-1 and averaging roughly 44 points per game. That included a 58-0 win and a 70-35 win over Texas Tech. With a 21-point lead in the Red River Rivalry Game, a 5-1 start looked imminent. Then, the wheels came off. The Sooners rallied for the biggest comeback in the history of the series and the Longhorns haven't won a single game since. This afternoon's game offers a chance to salvage some pride. I expect the Longhorns to make the most of it. K-State comes off a tough loss against Baylor. They managed only 10 points and 263 total yards. That was a game the Wildcats could have really used and it brings their positive momentum to an end. Note that Wildcats are 3-8 SU their last 11, when off a conference loss. They're also 0-4 ATS their last four, after passing for less than 170 yards in their previous game. The Longhorns have won four straight in the series. All four wins came by at least a field goal and last year's was a 69-31 blowout. Expect the Longhorns to show some pride and continue that series dominance on Black Friday. 

I'm playing on NO. The Bills looked great in going 4-1 through the first five weeks. However, they've gone just 2-3 their past five games and those two wins came against the Jets and the Dolphins. This is a difficult venue. While I respect them,the way that they're currently playing, I don't feel that the Bills should be laying this many points. True, the Saints are dealing with some injuries. However, the Bills are too. True, the Saints have dropped three straight. However, the last two of those were on the road and the lone home loss came by two points. They're 4-2 here this season and both losses were by six or less. Remember, this is a well-coached team which tends to elevate its play for the "big games" here. The Saints beat the Packers 38-3 here and they beat the Bucs 36-27. Throw in a 28-13 road win at New England and this NO team has wins against three current division leaders. How many other teams can say that? Last week was just the second time that the Saints lost by more than six points. After the first time, they immediately bounced back with a double-digit win. The Saints are 9-2 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. I expect their best effort and I'm grabbing the points. Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving. 

I'm playing on the OVER in the Egg Bowl. The Rebels have been on an 'under' streak. However, the Bulldogs have been on an 'over' streak. I expect the Bulldogs' streak to be the one which continues. The Bulldogs scored 55 themselves last week. True, that was against a weak opponent. However, the previous week they scored 43, at Auburn. They're averaging more than 40 ppg their last five. While the offense is potent, the Miss. State defense is nothing special. The Bulldogs have allowed 28 or more points six different times, allowing more than 30 each of their past two games against an SEC opponent. The Rebels can score, too. They've scored 27 or more in each of their past three games and 20 or more in every game this season. On the season, they're averaging 36.4 ppg. That's Top 20 in the country. Last year, when these teams met, the O/U line was 70.5. We're working with a considerably lower number here. Expect it to prove to be too low. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. This line could easily be higher. True, the Cowboys are banged up at the receiver position. True, they lost 19-9 last week. They've still got weapons though and last week's loss was on the road, against the Chiefs. They're back home now; their last game here they won 43-3. The Raiders are a mess. They've lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-43. Remember, this is a team which lost its head coach. The Raiders also saw a top receiver get arrested. Then, they released their first round cornerback due to some online threats he made. Naturally, those type of things take a toll. While the Raiders still have a talented team, playing on a short week, here at Dallas, is not the place for them to "get healthy." Not only are the Cowboys 6-1 ATS their last seven home games but they're also been money when coming off a loss. Last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had Andy Dalton at QB. They were playing with heavy hearts, as their strength and conditioning coordinator (Markus Paul) had passed away. Then, they lost a pair of starters on the game's first drive. They went on to get pounded 41-16. Things are much different this year and I expect a determined Dallas team to bounce back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line on the board. I believe the low number is providing us with plenty of value and I look for it to prove to be too low. The Bears had to play in the cold and in the wind last week. That's often the case for their games at this time of the year. Likewise, the Lions are off a game in wet, muddy, ugly weather. However, with Ford Field being a domed stadium, there are no weather issues. That should help the offenses. The Lions and Texans combined for 66 points last Thanksgiving. The previous season, the Bears and Lions combined for 44. Neither defense is very good. The Bears allow 24 ppg. The Lions allow 27.3. That's third worst in the NFL. The Bears have won only one road game this season and the OVER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Lions hosted a team with a losing road record. Expect those stats to improve Thursday afternoon. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving! 

I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on TB/NYG UNDER the total. These teams also played last November. The O/U line was 47 and they combined for 48. (I didn't touch the total in that game but did win with the Giants.) We're working with an even higher O/U line tonight. I feel that it'll prove to be too high.  While they're determined to get better defensively, the Bucs have still seen three of their past four games fall below the total. They allowed just three points in their last game here. Tonight, they'll face a Giants team which has seen each of its past three games fall below the number. Those games had scores of 39, 37 and 28. Seven of the Giants' nine games, on the season, have finished with fewer than 50 combined points. Both offenses have some key players either out, or banged-up. Off last week's 23-16 win over the Raiders, note that the Giants have seen the UNDER go 8-1 the past nine times that they were coming off an ATS victory. Expect those stats to improve tonight

I'm playing on TB. I won with the Giants when these teams met last November. At the time, I stated that I liked how the game set up for the Giants and that I felt the Bucs were getting overvalued. This one sets up differently. Many are suddenly now down on the defending champs. Back to back setbacks will do that. Keep in  mind that those losses were both on the road. The Bucs are 4-0 SU at home, 7-1 ATS their last eight. Indeed, they're been a different team at Raymond James Stadium. The last three times that they played here they won by scores of 38-3, 45-17 and 48-25. While they've been more competitive of late, the Giants are still a 3-6 team. They've lost by 14 or more points three times. Tampa averages 31 ppg while NY averages 19.9 ppg. Tampa averages 406.4 ypg. NY averages 334. Tampa's dealing with a number of injuries but the Giants' injury issues are arguably even worse. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a statement blowout. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/LA OVER total. I won with the 'over' in the Steelers MNF game a couple of weeks ago. I thought that O/U line was too low and that proved to be the case. They're back on primetime tonight and I feel the same way about the total. Its true that the Steelers have been involved in some low-scoring games, the MNF game notwithstanding. A date with the Chargers will change that. The Chargers have seen three straight games finish with 47 or more points. Two of those finished above the 50 mark. Their last three home games had combined scores of 47, 51 and 89. It should also be mentioned that the Chargers are off their fourth loss of the season. The OVER is 2-1 after their previous three losses but all three of those games finished with greater than 50 points. With both defenses missing some key players, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/Indianapolis UNDER the total. Over its last three games, Buffalo has allowed 17, 9 and 11 points. Not surprisingly, the Bills defense ranks #1 in the NFL in a number of categories. They're #1 in terms of ppg allowed. They give up 15 per game. The Bills are also #1 in terms of yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. The Colts allowed 17 points last game and they also allowed 18 in their last road game. The last meeting snuck over the total by a half point, thanks to a 24-point 4th quarter. However, the previous four meetings all finished below the number with combined scores of 42, 20, 41 and 33. I feel that the number is generously high and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair.