I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on LA/GB UNDER the total. Without a doubt, Rodgers has had a great year. However, he hasn't faced a defense this good. He can ask Russell Wilson if he wants confirmation. The Rams game against Seattle finished above the total. However, the Rams still arguably won that one with their defense and thats certainly why they were in the playoffs to begin with. Prior to the Seattle game, LA had seen its previous four games all stay below the number, allowing an average of less than 11 ppg. Donald has been held out of practice but has said that he'll be good to go. While Rodgers rightfully gets all the headlines, the Packers defense quietly closed the season in top form. The Pack held each of their final three opponents below the 17-point mark. Four of their past five opponents scored fewer than 17 points, the other managed 24. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Buckeyes against Clemson. However, this Alabama team is in an entirely different class. The Buckeyes were on a mission to avenge last year's loss against Clemson. Obviously, they want to take the next step and beat Alabama, too. However, even if they don't, they've already proven that they belong and have "accomplished their mission." Coach Day commented: " ... This was big for us. This was a statement for us as a program to win a CFP game, especially after what happened last year. And to play the way we did, it means a lot for our program." For Alabama, on the other hand, nothing has been accomplished. This is a team which is on a mission to win the National title. As impressive as they were in beating up on Clemson, the Buckeyes got beaten up themselves in the process. QB Fields, the hero of the Sugar Bowl win, had this to say after the game: " ... I took like a shot or two in the medical tent and just ran back out there. But I mean it's pretty much my whole right torso that's messed up, a little bit of my hip ... " As much as I respect the Buckeyes, the Tide are simply better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will put up a big number, as it has done every game this season; ultimately, Ohio State won't be able to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. 

I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the moneyline. Even if the Rams had a healthy Goff, winning here was going to be very difficult. They don't though. He had thumb surgery and may not play. If he does, it'll be 12 days after surgery and in the cold. He'd be highly unlikely to be 100%. Wolford threw for 231 yards with 0 TDs and an INT in his first start. Those are hardly the type of numbers needed to compete against Russell Wilson. Note that the home team won (and covered) both games during the regular season. While I do like the Seahawks to cover, out of respect for the Rams' defense, I'm going with the moneyline. Its worth noting that Seattle is 30-34-1 ATS (47%) the past 65 times that it was a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range. Yet, the Hawks were 46-19 SU (71%) in those same games. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. No doubt about it, the Bills had a great season. However, the Colts were "quietly" very good, too. While the Bills outscored opposing teams by an impressive 7.9 ppg, the Colts weren't far behind. They outscored teams by an average of 5.6 points. Everyone expects the Bills to win and with those expectations, comes pressure. Keep in mind that this is unfamiliar territory for most of these Bills. On the other hand, Indianapolis shouldn't be feeling the same type of pressure. The Colts coach, former Buffalo QB Frank Reich, had this to say of his team: "We should be loose, we should be aggressive, we should be able to play our best football game of the year because no one's going to give us a chance. It's the us- against-the-world mentality. If you were around the team like I am day in and day out, you'd understand where I get the confidence to think we can beat anyone in this tournament.'' Reich went on to say: "It starts with what we believe, we have the team to win it all. We've got the right players, the right coaches and the belief and confidence in each other to win it all. I can tell you on a personal note, in my 26 years in the NFL, I've been on teams that have won 11 games eight times. Six of those eight went to the Super Bowl.'' Led by their veteran QB, look for Reich's Colts, 4-2 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to give the Bills all they can handle, with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams in the NFC East hate each other. Don't think for a second that the Eagles don't want this game. Sure, a win would mean that another hated rival will get in. Still, the Eagles are a proud franchise which isn't about to hand over a playoff spot. As Eagles coach Doug Pederson had to say: 'We've got to have a no hat rule this week. We can't let opponents put division win hats on at the Linc.'' While they came up short on making the playoffs, the first time since Pederson's first season in 2016, I do believe that the Eagles are a better team now than they were earlier in the season. Having beaten the Saints last time on this field, certainly, they're capable of beating a 6-9 Washington team, which is off b2b losses. Note that Washington, 5-11-1 ATS (5-12 SU) its last 17 off b2b losses, is just 2-5 ATS its last seven as a favorite. In what'll likely be a close one, grab the points. 

I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total. Washington is on an 'under' streak while Philadelphia is on an 'over' streak. On a chilly and likely wet night, with the division on the line, I expect it to be the first of those streaks which continues. Washington is in this position because of its defense. Its allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight games. The Eagles' offense has certainly been better since Wentz got benched. That said, they've still scored less than 27 points in nine straight games. Last time out, they managed a mere 17 against a normally porous Dallas defense. Thats now five of their last seven games where the Eagles have scored 17 or less. Washington, meanwhile, managed just 13 points last week after scoring only 15 in its previous game. That's four straight games where the Football Team has scored less than 24. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. Only in 2020 would these teams still be alive for the playoffs. Yet, thats the situation. If Washington were to somehow lose on Sunday night, which is entirely possible, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I successfully played against the Giants in their very first game of the season, a loss against the Steelers. At the time, I stated the following: "....With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well ..." Unsurprisingly, Judge and co. did go through some growing pains this season. However, fate has them still playing a meaningful game and now he's had plenty of time to get to know his team. While they had to face some tough teams down the stretch, the Giants are less than a month removed from winning outright at Seattle. Thats arguably a more impressive feat than anything Dallas has accomplished. Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites of three or less. All four losses came outright. Though I like the Giants to also win this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. While I backed the Big Ten team (Northwestern) in yesterday's Big Ten vs. SEC showdown, I feel that its the SEC team which is providing us with excellent value in this one. The Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five bowl games. During that span, the Rebels are 11-2 in bowl games. The Rebels do have some issues as they're dealing with some injuries and covid-opt outs. Thats been reflected in the line though as Indiana is being asked to win by double-digits. Thats asking too much, in my opinion. Note that three of their seven games were decided by single-digits. The Hoosiers may be saying all the right things but they're still disappointed about not getting to play yesterday. The Rebels can score with the best of them. They scored 54, 59, 31 and 48 points, in their final four games. While Indiana averages 30 ppg, Ole Miss averages more than 40. Look for the Rebels to come "ready to play" as they give the Hoosiers a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing KENTUCKY on the moneyline. The SEC didn't fare too well in yesterday's early games. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia failed to cover against Cincy. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. The Wolfpack can't believe that they're underdogs in this game either. After all, they've won four straight and are 8-3. Kentucky, meanwhile, is just 4-6. Vegas isn't stupid though; the Wildcats are favored for a reason. Keep in mind that Kentucky had to face the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Florida. Three of those games came on the road, too. NC State wouldn't have beaten those teams either. When stepping down in class to face Tennessee, Miss State and Vanderbilt, the Wildcats went 4-0. They beat the first two that I mentioned by a combined score of 51-9. NC State's best wins were against Virginia and Liberty. The Wolfpack's toughest games were against VTech, Miami and UNC and they lost all three of those. NC State is 3-10 SU its last 13 as an underdog. During that span, Kentucky is 15-4 SU as a favorite. Kentucky wins. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on ND/Alabama UNDER the total. Obviously, the Alabama offense is really, really good. However, this is also a very high O/U line and this Notre Dame defense is a lot better than many realize. No, the Irish won't be able to stop the Tide. But they should be able to slow them down better than most other teams. Remember, that ND ranked in the top 25 in both points allowed and yards allowed, despite having to face Clemson twice. Speaking of Clemson, Notre Dame's most recent game with the Tigers had an O/U line of 57 and finished with just 44 points. While the offense gets all the headlines, as per usual, the Alabama defense is also loaded with stars. While their last game was high-scoring, the Tide have been alternating between 'unders' and 'overs' their past six games, dating back to Halloween. Expect that 'pattern' to continue as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. 

I'm playing NORTHWESTERN on the money-line. While I successfully backed an SEC team (Miss. State) in yesterday's early game, I'm going against the SEC team in this one. For starters, I believe that Northwestern is better than Tulsa. I've been impressed with the Wildcats all season. Also, importantly, Auburn is currently a mess. Within the last month, the Tigers fired their coach and also saw several players opt out of this game. The Tigers also found out Thursday, just before leaving Orlando, that at least one player had tested positive. That's a lot to deal with, compared to the Wildcats, who have been relatively "stable" by comparison. The Tigers are just 3-7 SU the past 10 times that they were listed as underdogs. During that time, the Wildcats were 10-3 SU as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MISS. STATE. If one just looks at the records, Tulsa should be a bigger favorite. However, as Tulsa's TieNeal Martin had to say: "Records can be a little bit deceiving. When I look at Miss. State, I see a crazy talented team that has all the pieces ..." It should be noted that Tulsa will be without linebacker Zaven Collins (Nagurski Trophy winner) as he opted out. The Bulldogs have taken on the likes of Alabama and Georgia, not to mention teams like Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss. They closed out the season with a momentum-building 51-32 beating of Missouri. Tulsa, on the other hand, comes off a loss to Cincinnati. Note that the Hurricane are 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While I'll grab the points, I expect the Bulldogs to win this one outirght, improving to 5-1 ATS their last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. 

I'm playing on Florida/Oklahoma UNDER the total. As you may have heard, the Gators' offense has taken a pretty major hit. They'll still have their star QB but he'll be without his top FOUR receiving options. Those four guys (receives Grimes, Toney, Copeland and tight-end Pitts) combined for 2778 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Obviously, that's significant. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense is better than the recent editions that have been beaten up by SEC teams. OU has allowed a mere 57 points its last four games. That's actually their best defensive stretch, in terms of points allowed, in the past six years. While the Sooners led the Big 12 with 36 sacks, the Gators led the SEC with 33. Oklahoma defensive end Ronnie Perkins said this of the Sooner defense: 'After suffering those two losses early in the season, the defense definitely turned it up. I definitely feel that switch. We've got great players all over the field. A lot of guys who have kind of been in it, took a lot of reps in this defense over the last two years. So we're a confident group. We play hard, play fast.'' Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Longhorns in this one. Note that every Texas victory came by at least seven points this season, with the exception of a 4-point win over WVU. The Longhorns bring momentum into the game, having won four of their past five. They crushed K-State 69-31 last time out. The Buffaloes can't say the same. They lost 38-21 to Utah last time out, snapping a winning streak. The loss was costly. Not only did it cost the Buffs any chance at the Pac-12 South title, they also suffered numerous injuries including one to linebacker Nate Landman. His loss, and others, will hurt them here. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. I expect Ehlinger and co. to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Both these teams have mostly beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat. Both have similar records and both have similar numbers in that they've outscored opposing teams by roughly the same amount. (Miami outscored teams by 8 ppg while OSU outscored opposing teams by 7.1 ppg.) I like the way that the Cowboys come into the game a lot more though. After dropping two of three, they responded by thrashing Baylor (42-3) last time out. Conversely, Miami got crushed in its last game. The Canes were hammered 62-26 by UNC. Yes, they're saying all the right things about being motivated to bounce back - I'm sure that they want to - but that game exposed some vulnerabilities. It also cost them a spot in a major bowl which is a difficult pill to swallow and which will make "getting up" for this one that much more difficult. While they may be closer to home, the Canes are still 0-5 SU their last five on a 'neutral' field. Even without Hubbard, OSU can still pound the ball and control the clock. Expect the Cowboys to win their fourth bowl game in the past five years.  

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Nearly every site, analyst or person that I've looked at is predicting a Buffalo blowout. Yes, the Bills have been the better team. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries. Yes, the Pats will also be home for the playoffs. Their reign is over. I believe thats exactly what will make them so dangerous tonight though. This is still their house and this is one final chance to "end the era" on a high note, reminding everyone that it wasn't just Brady that made this team so good, for so long. While they've struggled on the road, the Pats have remained tough at home. They've only played two home games since the start of November. Those games were against Arizona and Baltimore, both capable opponents, and the Pats beat both of them. They've only been beaten by six points once here all season. Even while struggling, the Pats have still only given up 63 points their past four games, an average of less than 16 ppg. The earlier meeting was decided by three points. If the Bills do manage to win here, I certainly don't expect it to be "easy." Grab the points. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Usually, the Packers are a "popular" team. However, the Titans are kind of the 'flavor of the week' these days, so that's allowed this line to come down lower than it normally would be. Indeed, with the Pack off b2b ATS losses and the Titans off b2b ATS wins, we're getting excellent value with the Rodgers and co. While the Pack may not have covered, they still won each of their last two games by seven or more points. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have come by at least seven points and ALL 11 of them have come by a minimum of four points. (Three of Tennessee's four losses came by six or more and ALL of them came by at least a field goal.) While Henry is a load, the Packers run defense is improved from last season. I expect them to do a relatively good job at slowing down the Titans' big back. On the other hand, Rodgers should have a field day against a Titan pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Pack, who are trying to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, are 19-4 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Houston OVER the total. With neither of these teams playing for playoff positioning, there's little reason to play conservatively. Yet, the O/U line has come down from its opener. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Houston has seen four of its last five games produce at least 46 combined points. (The other saw 43 points scored.) Overall, on the season, Texan games have averaged 50.1 points. While Cincinnati games have averaged "only" 44.8 points, the Bengals come in confident, having just scored 27 against the Steelers last time out. While the Texans managed only 81 rushing yards against the Colts last week, its worth noting that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that they'd rushed for less than 90 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Miami/LV UNDER the total. Considering that the Dolphins allow just 18.4 ppg, I believe that this number is generously high. While they're not in Miami's class defensively, having fired their defensive coordinator before last week's game, the Raiders are determined to improve on that side of the ball. Facing an offensively challenged Dolphin team should help in that regard. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top half of the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game.) Over their past six games, the Dolphins only allowed more than 21 points once - and that was against the defending world champs. Take away that game against KC and the Dolphins have allowed 12, 7 and three points over their last three. While many assume all Raider games will be high-scoring, I'm expecting this one to result in a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While their chances of making the playoffs are indeed slim, the Vikings aren't mathematically elmiminated yet. (They need to win both their games and get some help.) I expect their very best effort on Christmas Day. The Vikings have an offense capable of staying with the Saints. They've scored at least 27 points in four of their past five games. The Saints only recent win by more than five points came against a Denver team which was missing all of its quarterbacks. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS the past seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. They're also only 5-11 ATS the past 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off a division loss and 6-0 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b losses. Grab the points.

I'm playing BUFFALO on the moneyline. In the MAC, prior to losing in the Championship game, the Bulls ran all over teams. Some of the teams they faced had good offenses but none were good on both sides of the ball. Strong on both sides of the ball, Buffalo looked unstoppable. Marshall is different from the typical teams that Buffalo faced in that the Herd are a good defensive team. However, unlike Buffalo, Marshall doesn't have a very potent offense. At least, not an offense in the same class as Buffalo. The Bulls score 47.8 ppg while the Herd average 30.6 ppg. Note that Marshall has scored a mere 13 points in its last two games combined. While both teams are disappointed with the way the season concluded, I say that the Bulls superior offense will ultimately prove the difference. Buffalo digs deep and improves to 21-7 SU its past 28, when listed as a favorite. 

I'm playing on Hawaii/Houston OVER the total. The last time these teams met was in the Hawaii Bowl in 2003. They brawled at the end of a wild 54-48 (3-OT) win by the Warriors. That was a long time ago. However, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair, this Christmas Eve. While it hasn't played in awhile, Houston has scored 83 points its last two games. I expect the explosive Cougars to have plenty of success against a suspect Hawaii defense which allows 420 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars, have given up 133 points over their past four, an average of more than 33 points allowed per game. Hawaii scored 38 points its last game after allowing 35 in its previous game. The Warriors, too, should have success on offense, facing a Houston defense which allows an average of 32.6 ppg. All things considered, I feel this number, which has come down a bit from its opener, is a little low. While they won't match the 2003 bowl, I look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Memphis/FAU OVER the total. These teams have very different stats. FAU games have been low-scoring, the reason we're working with quite a low O/U number. Yet, Memphis games have averaged more than 61 points. While the Owls did have some low-scoring games, they come into this one off a high-scoring 45-31 loss. They've scored 24 or more in three of their last four and I expect them to have success against a supsect Memphis defense. The Tigers played 10 games this season. Nine of those produced a minimum of 56 points. FAU saw last year's bowl game finish with a score of 52-28, a game which finished above the number by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on LA Tech. This line has climbed from its opener and I believe we're now getting excellent value with the underdog. Georgia Southern has lost three of its last four games. The Eagles have won only once, by more than seven points, in their last eight games. Playing fairly close to home, the Bulldogs are going to be fired up. Prior to losing at TCU, the Bulldogs were off wins against North Texas and UAB. The Bulldogs have dominated Sun Belt teams over the years, going a perfect 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. In what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 45. They finished with 46. Now, with both teams having played some recent 'unders' and the Bengals starting Finley at QB, the O/U line is considerably lower. Before, it was above the 44 mark. Now, we're working with an O/U line below the important 41 mark. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Steelers are out to prove that "all is fine." The Bengals are out to prove that they're not a joke. Both offenses are going to be motivated to move the ball. Both teams have seen their games average more than 44 points overall, on the season. Eleven of Pittsburgh's 13 games, including each of the past two, have finished with at least 40 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Mike Tomlin said this of the Bengals: "We expect to get the very best of Cincinnati. That's a rivalry-type game. It's an opportunity for them to have a feel-good in the midst of a trying circumstance of a season for them.'' I expect that to absolutely be the case. Naturally, the Steelers would like a big win. However, they haven't played well recently and they've got much bigger games to come. For the Bengals, there won't be any bigger games. As Tomlin said, this is a hated division rival, one which already hammered them and this is a nationally televised Monday night game. We're getting some extra line value with Finley in at QB, instead of Allen. Yet, Allen was 0-3 as a starter and he wasn't exactly lighting it up. Finley will be out to prove that he should have been starting, once Burrow went down, all along. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were favored by greater than 10 points and they're just 13-31 ATS their last 44 in that role. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on APPLACHIAN STATE. While this line may initially appear high, I believe that it could easily be even bigger. The Mountaineers, 5-0 in bowl games, are much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. While both offenses can score, North Texas allows a whopping 41.3 ppg compared to the Mountaineers' 19.3 ppg. The Mountaineers have thrived with eight day's rest in between games the past couple of seasons, going 3-0 when in that situation. I believe that they're going to come in with a chip on their shoulder. North Texas isn't immune to getting blown out having lost 49-21 vs. Charlotte and 49-17 at UTSA, just two of this season's four double-digit losses. The Mountaineers have six double-digit wins this season and four by 21 or more. I say this will be #5. 

I'm playing on the NYG. The Giants didn't show up last week. Now fully in must win mode, I expect them to bounce back with their very best effort. This line went up, due to a week of headlines by the Giants and with McCoy taking over for Jones. I believe those extra points are providing us with excellent value. The Giants have the type of team that can beat Cleveland. I say that because the Giants are usually pretty good at stopping the run. Limit Cleveland's ground game and force Mayfield to throw and he can make mistakes. This may be McCoy's last chance to show the world that he can play and I expect him to give his team a chance to win. Remember, the last time that McCoy started, the Giants beat the Seahawks. Coach Judge said this of McCoy's effort: "I think he did a lot of things well. First off, I love the way he just controlled the flow of the game, the tempo of the game. Colt was on the line of scrimmage, identifying what the defense was in, putting us in the right place, made some big plays for us down the stretch with some key completions to continue drives." Having a start under his belt, with this offense, should help the veteran. While the Giants do have some injuries, the same is true of Cleveland which will be without its starting right guard and others. Before last week'd dud, the Giants had gone 5-3 their previous eight games and the three losses came by one, two and three points. As for the Browns, they haven't won a game by more than six points for more than two months. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona OVER the total. While watching the Eagles beat the Saints last week, a number of things stood out to me. Of those, the two most important were: 1. The offense was a lot better with Hurts than with Wentz. He played smart, made good throws while also running very effectively. In fact, both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards. Certainly, the offense looked much improved overall. Keep in mind that the Eagles were facing the #1 rated defense in the league. Also, it should be noted that Hurts led the Eagles on a very impressive drive at the end of the first half. Got them all the way down to the 2-yard line, or so, only to bring in Eliott and have him miss a chip-shot field goal. That was a bit of a momentum-killer but it sure wasn't on Hurts. Sean Payton said this of Hurts: " .... was impressive just watching him. I thought he played with poise, made some throws. He was smart. He did a good job." 2. The second important thing that really stood out was that the Eagles' defenders were dropping like flies. Already banged up on that side of the ball, a number of Philadelphia defenders went down. To their credit, the remaining Eagle defenders hung tough. However, a road game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is entirely different than a home game against Taysom Hill. The Eagles have given up 30, 22, 27 and 38 points their past four road games, an average of more than 29 ppg. While the Cards, who have faced some tough defenses of late, have scored "only" 26 and 28 points their past two games, it wasn't long ago when they had a stretch of five straight games where they scored 30 or more. Overall, Arizona games are averaging 52.4 points. I expect both offenses to have success in this one, the final combined score finishing above the reasonably low total. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. These teams recently played a close one at Houston and I'm expecting another relatively close affair this afternoon. Yes, the Texans are playing out the string. However, this is still a divsional game against an opponent playing a meaningful game.  Interim coach Romeo Crennel commented: ''They're playing for the division lead .... as far as the way that we will respond, I hope we will respond like we did two weeks ago and play a tremendous game.'' The Colts have given up 31, 45, 20 and 27 points their last four games. Prior to getting blown out at Chicago, the Texans hadn't lost by more than six points since October. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, giving the Colts all they can handle en route to at least a cover. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While Tampa has more to play for, in terms of playoffs, I expect a highly motivated effort from Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Not only are the Bucs a division rival, but the Falcons haven't forgotten what Brady did to them in the Super Bowl. The last thing Ryan and co. want is Brady to come in and embarrass them. While Jones remains out, Ridley has stepped up. He had eight receptions (1 TD) last week for 124 yards. Thats six times he's broke the 100-yard mark. So, Ryan isn't without weapons. The Falcons are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, in the final four weeks of the reg. season. The Falcons have only lost by more than seven points three times this entire season, none of those losses in the laset three games. The last time that they lost by more than seven was on the road, at New Orleans. Prior to that, again, on the road, at Green Bay. The only time that they lost by more than seven at home was the very first game of the entire season, against Seattle. Since then, they've been competitive in every home game. With the line climbing from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. 

I'm playing BOISE STATE on the money-line. Lose this game and the Spartans have still had a great season. Thats not the case for the Broncos. This will be the Broncos' fifth trip to the MWC title game in the past seven seasons, their fourth straight. They won the title in 2014, 2017 and 2019. Anything less than a victory here will be considered failure. As Boise receiver Khalil Shakir noted: "We haven’t done anything yet. Nothing has been accomplished." Remember, San Jose State went just 3-21 in 2017 and 2018. Last season, the Spartans were 5-7. So, a 3-year record of 8-28, before this season. Again, they can hold their heads high even with a loss here. Despite getting hammered by BYU, a team San Jose State didn't have to face, the Broncos still score an average of 36.2 points per game, as compared to the Spartans' 30.3 ppg. The Spartans are 6-16 SU their last 22 as underdogs. During that span, the Broncos are 24-4 SU as favorites. Going back further finds Boise at 45-9 SU when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. All things considered, I feel that this line could easily be much higher. Broncos win. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Bills are having a great season and they're off an impressive win over the Steelers, on Sunday night. Everyone saw that nationally televised game. That's led to many jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon which, in turn, has created excellent value with the Broncos. The big win over Buffalo also may well have the Bills patting themselves on the back a bit. Now, they play a road game in altitude, on a short week. Its also important to note that Bills have a game against New England on deck. Last week, when playing against the Saints in their loss against the Eagles, I noted that the Saints had a huge game against the Chiefs on deck. For them, there was no bigger possible game to look ahead to then a date with the defending world champs. For Buffalo, however, a date with the 11-time defending AFC East champs is arguably an even bigger game to look ahead to. Even though the Patriot reign on top of the division will come to an end, a game against them is still a big deal for Buffalo. Yes, the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win (or Miami loss) this week. However, there's still plenty of time for that, so there shouldn't be any absolute urgency. As for the Broncos, they're off one of their best games of the season, a 32-27 win at Carolina. Before that, they lost by only six, at KC. The last time that Lock started a home game, the Broncos beat Miami. Speaking of Lock, he was 21 of 27 last week, throwing for four TDs and 0 INTs. His 149.5 passer rating was third best (only Elway and Manning were better) in franchise history. With a chance to play a home game in front of a National audience and not wanting the Bills to clinch a playoff berth in their building, I say that Lock and the Broncos rise to the occasion and give their guests all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on UAB. These teams each have one CUSA championship in their history. UAB won by two points (27-25 over MTSU) two years ago while Marshall won by three points (26-23 over LA Tech) in 2014. Another close one won't surprise this evening, which makes getting more than a field goal very attractive. Keep in mind that Marshall hasn't won a game in more than a month. The Herd have only played one game during that span and they lost 20-0 against Rice. Their QB threw five INTs and they couldn't even manage 250 total yards. Yes, they're better than that and they'll be determined to prove that. However, the situation is far from ideal for them. Note that UAB won at Rice to get here, beating the same Owls that blanked Marshall. That game was a 21-16 final marking UAB's third straight decided by five or less. In fact, the Blazers have only lost by more than four points once all season and that was way back in September, at Miami. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on LA/LV UNDER the total. Needless to say, having just fired their defensive coordinator, the Raiders want to place an emphasis on improved defense. Yes, the Raiders are banged-up on that side of the ball. However, as Gruden says: "We just got to have guys step up." On offense, to try and take some pressure off of the defense, I expect a heavy dose of the run as the Raiders try and control the clock. As for the Chargers, they're off a solid defensive effort, as they limited Atlanta to just 17 points. On the other side of the ball, the Charger offense has only averaged 10 points the past two games. Each of those games finished with 45 or fewer points. While those games were both at home, the Chargers' last two road games have also both finished with 50 or less. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Browns have definitely gotten better since the Ravens hammered them earlier in the season. However, I don't feel that they're improved enough to take the next step and to beat the Ravens. When healthy, Baltimore, has handled teams not named KC or Pittsburgh. I mention that as the Ravens are now mostly healthy after having been hit hard by Covid-restrictions. Speaking of "missing players," you won't hear much about it, but the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts them. The Ravens were 7-1 in the final four weeks of the reg. season the past two seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday night, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Cleveland OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 47.5. Baltimore did its part to get over that number, scoring 38 points. However, Cleveland managed just six points. We're likely to see a closer game tonight, this time with both teams contributing to the scoring. Indeed, both these offenses were clicking last time out. Lamar and the Ravens dropped 34 points on Dallas. The Browns were even better. They put 41 points on the board, at Tennessee. Speaking of Cleveland, it should be noted that the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one.  I believe that his absence hurts their defense. While Baltimore games are averaging "only" 45.6 points, Cleveland games are averaging a much higher 52.3 points. All things considered, this number is a little low. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Buffalo UNDER the total. On a chilly night in Buffalo, I expect the defenses to steal center stage. The Steelers struggled on offense last week. The receivers dropped balls and they couldn't run the ball when they needed to. They've now been held below 20 points in both December games and they've seen each of their last three games finish below the total. On the other side of the ball, however, the Steelers remain dominant. They allow just 17.6 ppg, the best mark in the NFL. The Bills defense has been improved the past couple of weeks, as they've allowed 24 and 17 points. A closer look shows that they've played four straight against teams from the NFC. Their last three games against AFC teams have all finished with 45 or fewer points, scores of 24-21, 18-10 and 26-17, that one coming against the high-scoring Chiefs. All things considered, I feel that this number is generously high. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Saints have been on quite the run. I believe that it comes to an end Sunday though. The Eagles are a dangerous and desperate team. Amazingly, they're still alive. But this is absolutely must win time. The Rams were the only team to beat the Eagles by more than six points, at Philadelphia, all season. And that was way back in September. This, despite the Eagles hosting the likes of Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are playing their third straight on the road, something you don't see too often. They've also got a showdown with the defending Super Bowl champs on deck. So, if there's ever a time to look ahead to a game, this is it. The Eagles have been great in the final four weeks of the regular season two years in a row, winning seven of those eight games. Expect them to give their potentially road-weary guests all that they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on NO/Philadelphia OVER the total. This O/U line came down and is very low, beneath the important 44 mark and the lowest on the entire board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. I like the fact that the Eagles have finally made the QB switch and I expect that move to have a positive effect. Yes, the Saints' defense has been playing well. This is their third straight road game though and they're facing a desperate team with an aggressive coach. NO games are still averaging 49 points on the season while Philly games are averaging 46.7 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SF/Washington UNDER the total. Both these defenses are very capable. Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. On the Rams, Saints and Steelers are better. SF is right behind the Football Team, ranking 6th in that category. Both these teams also want to run the ball with regularity. That, of course, helps to keep the clock moving. Washington has seen six of its past eight games finish with less than 44 points. The only two that didn't were games against Dallas and Detroit. Those two teams rank #31 and #32 (last and second last) in the league in terms of points allowed, per game. Facing a stingier SF defense, determined to bounce back, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Cincinnati OVER the total. I've won with the "over" in each of the Cowboys' last two games. Once again, I feel that the O/U number will prove to be too low. Note that its below the important 44 mark. The Bengals' last four opponents (Miami, Pitt, NYG, Wash) all rank in the top 10 of the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, however, the Bengals face a team which ranks dead last in that category. Here's an excerpt from what I said last week: "... I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points ..." Sure enough, Dallas gave up 34 more points, while scoring 17 of its own. Expect the Bengal offense to "get healthy," both teams combining for enough points to send the final combined score above the low number. 

I'm playing on KC. The fact that the champs haven't covered for awhile combined with the fact that the Dolphins have been covering, has kept the line lower than it easily could have been. I expect a double-digit win. Miami has been winning with a defense that blitzes, a lot. Mahomes is a different type of QB though and he tends to shred defenses that blitz him. The Dolphins offense took a hit when leading rusher Myles Gaskin was sidelined with Covid-19. That hurts more with Breida and Ahmed already out. The Chiefs, 5-1 ATS their last six against AFC East teams, beat New England by 16 and beat the Jets by 25. They also defeated the Bills by nine points, at Buffalo. Expect them to complete the sweep of the division this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on SDSU. This is a very tough spot for BYU, in my opinion. As you're probably aware, the Cougars elected to add a game to their schedule last week. They flew thousands of miles to go and squander their unbeaten record on a heart-breaking loss. While this is an excellent BYU team, that will be very tough to bounce back from. Keep in mind that the Cougars are being asked to lay a very big number here and that the Aztecs are a stingy team which allows a mere 16.3 ppg. None of the Aztecs' three losses came by more than 11 points. The Aztecs beat BYU last season and they lost by just three the last time that they played here. I believe they're catching the Cougars at the right time and I expect AT LEAST another cover Saturday night. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. Virginia is rolling. Virginia Tech is reeling. No brainer on the visitors, right? Not in my opinion. A closer look at the Hokies' 4-game skid shows that the first was an unlikely 3-point loss against Liberty. That was followed by a 1-point loss against Miami. Each of those games absolutely could have gone either way. Getting stuck on the wrong side of both was tough to take though and the Hokies delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. Not a great effort but understandable, all the same. That was followed by a loss against Clemson. So, there's no shame in that. In other words, I'm not ready to write the Hokies off due their current slide. Coach Fuente summed it up by saying: " ... we've lost two heartbreakers then didn't play very well on the road and came home against the No. 3 team in the country and right in the middle of the game had some of the weirdest events I've ever seen occur. There's a little bit of context .... The bottom line is that I love what we are teaching, what they are retaining and where we are going." Beating their bitter instate rival won't get them a winning record but it will sure go a long way in getting rid of the bad taste in their mouths. With a bowl game lookling unlikely, this game is even more important. The Cavs haven't played a road game since way back on 10/24, when they lost by five, at Miami. In fact, a closer look shows that Virginia is 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a combined score of 100-60. Speaking of road woes, the Cavs haven't won here since 1998. I expect a highly motivated V-Tech team to deliver its very best effort, continuing its homefield dominance in this series while covering the small number along the way.  

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Last time on this field, the Cardinals won 30-0. Wake Forest hasn't been on any field in nearly a month. The Deacons last played way back on 11/14, a tough loss against UNC. That was their only game since Halloween, too. Thats far from ideal and I believe it'll work against the Deacons. Louisville will be honoring its 18 seniors, prior to the game. Needless to say, they're going to be highly motivated to win this one. Last year's game was close, the Cards winning a wild 62-59 affair. The Cards are 10-2 SU the past 12 times that they were listed as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State OVER the total. Last year's game between these teams produced a whopping 79 points, a 41-38 Nevada win. I'm expecting another shootout for tonight's game, which will be played in Las Vegas. Note that the last three meetings between these teams, played in the state of Nevada, have all finished with greater than 70 combined points. Nevada is led by the top QB in the conference. Carson Strong has thrown for more than 2300 yards and 21 TDs. No other QB in the conference is close, in terms of TDs. That said, Spartan QB Nick Starkel has also quietly been getting it done. He doesn't make mistakes and has the best passer rating in the conference. Nevada, which put up 37 points last game, is going to throw the ball a lot, the best passing attack that the Spartans have faced. That will lead to big plays when the passes connect and time stoppages when they don't. The Spartans put up 35 points last time out though, the third time in the last four games that they're scored at least 34. Don't be surprised when both teams top 30, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing LA on the money-line. The Patriots have been on quite a roll and have brought themselves back from the dead. I say the Rams cool them off tonight though. Obviously, the Rams haven't forgotten that the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl. Coach McVay had this to say: ''It was a very humbling night for myself. I didn't think that I did nearly a good enough job for our football team to give us a chance to be crowned world champs.'' This is just the second time that the Pats have played b2b road games this season. They failed to cover in the first instance, nearly getting beaten by the winless Jets. Obviously, the Rams present a much tougher challenge. The Pats have a very good defense but the Rams' defense is arguably even better. LA allows 20.3 ppg. NE allows 21.3. On the other side of the ball, LA has a bigger advantage. The Rams average 25.1 ppg compared to the Pats' 22.8. Why the moneyline instead of the pointspread? While I do like the Rams to also cover, I like them more to win. Consider that the Pats are 47-25-1 ATS over the years, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Yet, they're just 27-46 SU in the same games. Huge difference. Likewise, the Rams are 49-51-2 ATS over that span, when listed as favorites in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Yet, they're 70-32 SU in the same games. Rams win. 

I'm playing on FAU/Southern Miss OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that last year's O/U line was 56.5. Southern Miss allows more than 32 ppg and has given up more than 50 on a couple of occasions. The Owls put up 38 in a win against rival FIU, so they've got an offense capable of exploiting the vulnrable Golden Eagle defense. While there were a couple of duds mixed in there, Southern Miss has still scored 20 or more points in seven of its nine games. Last year's game saw 51 points scored. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Baltimore OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points. The Ravens have allowed at least 19 points in five of their last six, including three straight. Three of those opponents scored 28 or more. All things considered, this number is low. 

I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Washington's last game. However, that was against Dallas. The Steelers are a far stingier opponent. Yet, the O/U line is basically the same as it was for that game. Even after the big day on Thanksgiving, Washington still ranks only 24th in terms of points scored per game. Meanwhile, the Stelers have allowed 14, 10 and 3 points their last three games. Prior to limiting the Cowboys to 16 points, Washington kept Cincy to just nine. The Steelers allow the fewest points in all of football while Washington ranks seventh in that category. They rank #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of yards allowed per game. Expect a defensive, low-scoring affair.