I'm playing BOISE on the ML. The Falcons are playing well. However, this is a very tough place to play. Also, Air Force's schedule has been soft. Off a win at BYU, the Broncos are coming in full of confidence. The Broncos are 17-4 SU the past 21 times that they were listed as favorites. They're far more "battle-tested" than the Falcons and that will serve them well today. Boise won last year's meeting by a score of 49-30. That's four straight double-digit wins in the series. This one may be closer but the result, a Boise "W," will be the same. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. (ML) While I respect the Bruins, I believe that the Huskies are better than many realize and I really like how this game sets up for them. While the season hasn't started the way that the Huskies had hoped, this is an experienced and talented Washington team. Last week's bye has given them a chance to regroup. The season isn't lost yet. Remember, the Huskies have won their last two at home. They beat Cal here last game and they hammered Arkansas State (52-3) in their previous game here. While the Huskies have had extra rest and preparation, the Bruins are playing their second straight road game. Washington, 4-1 the past five times it was off a conf. loss, has won the past two meetings with UCLA. I expect another victory this evening. 

I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on SJ SJTATE. Naturally, I respect the Aztecs. This is a big number though and its risen from its opener. I believe we're getting excellent value with an under-rated and under-valued Spartans side. The Spartans have struggled on the road but they have yet to lose at home. The Spartans have played the Aztecs tough. They lost by three in 2018 and by 10 in 2019. Then, last year, they beat the Aztecs outright. That 28-17 victory will provide them with the confidence to know they can complete in this game. Note that they held SDSU to a season low 2.2 ypc in that game. Even off last week's loss, the Spartans are still 10-5 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Expect them to bounce back by giving their guests all that they can handle.

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. 

I'm playing on Tampa/Philadelphia UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a strong defensive game. They held Carolina to 267 yards and 18 points. Their only previous home game vs. an NFC opponent (SF) finished with a score of 17-11. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 10-2 the past 12 times that the Eagles hosted an NFC team. Eleven of those 12 games finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the Bucs offense is obviously explosive, Brady has a banged-up thumb and Gronk remains out. Brady will play but potentially could be slightly less effective than normal. Note that the Bucs have scored only 19 and 24 points in their two road games. Their home scores have been much higher. Their last road game had a final score of 19-17. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER for the first half. Naturally, I respect both offenses. However, I feel the same way about the defenses. The Bills defense is playing very well right now. Last week, they shut down Houston. That's the second time in three games that they shut out an opponent. Their 11 ppg allowed is #1 in the entire NFL. Also, their 216.8 ypg allowed is #1, by a lot. The Bills held the Chiefs scoreless in the first quarter of the playoff games before Mahomes and co. got going. The regular season meeting was also fairly low-scoring out of the gate. They had only 23 at halftime. The Chiefs last home game finished with 54 points. However, they had 0 after the first quarter and just 17 at halftime. Look for this one to also get off to a lower-scoring start than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. Though they will claim otherwise, with Trey Lance making his first start, the 49'ers are likely going to be slightly more conservative than normal. Not having their normally reliable tight-end (Kittle) is a blow. He already had 19 receptions this season and would have been a nice option for the rookie to have. With the offense likely less than 100%, the SF defense knows it needs to elevate its level of play. Yes, the Arizona offense is explosive. Remember, the 49'ers held the Eagles to 11 points the last time that they were on the road. While they lost last week, they actually held the Seahawks to 234 total yards. They currently rank in the Top 10 in the league, in terms of yards allowed per game. While the Arizona offense gets most of the headlines, the Cards rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game. They've held three of four opponents to 20 or fewer points. Last year's two games had scores of 24-20 at SF and 20-12, here in the desert. Including that result, four of SF's last five visits here have fallen below the number. I'm expecting more of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Denver OVER the total. This is the lowest total on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Steelers have given up at least 24 points in each of their past three games. The Broncos gave up 23 last game. While the offense struggled last week, in large part to Bridgewater going down, in their first three games, the Broncos had scored 23 or more each game. As of this writing, Bridgewater appears on track to start. Six of the past eight meetings have finished above the total. Note that ALL eight produced a minimum of 39 combined points. Last year's game had an O/U line of 41 and finished with 47 points. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Atlanta/NY UNDER the total. The Jets' offense finally got going a little last week. However, the Jets still rank last in the NFL with 11.8 points scored per game. The defense has quietly been playing pretty well all season though. NY ranks a respectable 13th in the league in terms of points allowed per game and in terms of yards allowed per game. In terms of yards allowed per play, the Jets defense ranks #7 in the league. Admittedly, the Falcons D hasn't been as good. That said, they allowed just 14 points the last time that they played a game away from Atlanta. While the last game ended up high-scoring, the Falcon offense has been held to 17 points and six points, in two of their games. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Falcons had thrown for 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. This line initially opened a little lower before climbing higher. In a game where I'm expecting points to be relatively hard to come by, that's providing us with excellent value. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tide have been putting up big offensive numbers, week after week. This is still a relatively young offense though and now they're on the road against arguably the most talented defense which they've faced. Of course, the Tide are still going to score. However, I don't expect them to score as easily, or as many points, as they've been doing. The Alabama defense is considerably more experienced than its offense and has already held three teams to 14 or fewer points. In other words, the Aggies, who have already scored 10 points twice themselves, figure to have a difficult time scoring. Winning this game won't be easy for the Aggies, obviously. That said, they've got a talented defensive front and and offensive line that appears to be coming around. They're going to be doing everything they can to chew up the clock and keep the Tide offense off the field. In the end, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the Aggies' last six games. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win.

I'm playing UAB on the ML. The Blazeres are off a disappointing loss to Liberty. That was on the heels of four straight road games though; the only one they lost was at Georgia. This is a talented team which will absolutely not want to lose two in a row in their new home stadium. The Owls are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 66-21 margin. They'll face a UAB team which has still won nine of its last 11 here. Note that the Blazers are 10-2 SU the past 12 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range, a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range overall. Blazers have dominated teams from within their conference here at home and they've got a score to settle with the Owls from the 2019 CUSA title game. Expect them to finish on top. 

I'm playing on SJ STATE. This line opened closer to pick but has climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us excellent value with the visitors. The Spartans are the reigning MWC champs. They were 7-1 last year and they're 3-2 this year. Remember, they brought back 19 starters from last year's team and are arguably even stronger. The Rams, on the other hand, were 1-3 last year and have just one win so far this year. While I do believe the Rams are better than that record suggests and improved from last year, I still feel that this is a tough matchup for them. Note that the Rams have a couple of key players who are banged-up. Also, note that road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in the series. I say the Spartans improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. Both teams got thumped on the road last weekend. Ole Miss lost 42-21, at Alabama. Arkansas' loss was worse. The Razorbacks lost 37-0, at Georgia. I believe that the Rebels are the superior team. Playing at home, I expect them to be the team which bounces back from last week's loss. I also ike the fact that the game got moved to the morning slot; this is the third straight game that the Razorbacks have played away from home. (Prior to the game at Georgia, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) The home team is 4-1 ATS the past five in this series. The Razorbacks won by 12 at Arkansas last season. The Rebels won by 14 here the previous year. The Rebels won 61-21 the last time that they were a home favorite. I'm expecting another double-digit win.

I'm playing on AKRON. I don' think that there's much separating these teams, in terms of talent. Consider that Akron won 31-3 when these teams met last year. That result will provide the Zips, who brought back 18 starters from that team, with confidence for this one. While the early results haven't been there, this team is stronger than last year. Games at Auburn and Ohio State didn't help the stats but should serve the Zips well here. Meanwhile, Bowling Green brought back only 11 starters. Sure, Bowling Green has a couple of wins. One was by four points though. Now, this relatively inexperienced team is laying points for the first time since 2019. Note that the Falcons are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one. 

I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on the Rams/Seahawks UNDER for the first half. The Seahawks are off a victory over the 49'ers. A look at the stats shows that they were a little fortunate, as they were outgained by a considerable (457-234) margin in total yards. SF threw for more than 300 yards. That sounds bad but the UNDER is actually now a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Seattle allowed more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. That game against SF had only 14 first half points. The teams combined for 35 in the second half. All four of the Rams' games have finished above the total. However, a closer look reveals that three of those four games had 21 or fewer points at halftime. Prior to last week's loss, the Rams had been stingy defensively. Even with that game finishing above the total, the UNDER is 7-1 their last eight games played in October. When these teams met here in the "regular season" last year, the game had only 12 points at halftime. It was a 6-6 tie, all the scoring coming on four long field goals. Look for this one to also start a little slower than many will be expecting.  

I'm playing on TULANE. This line has gone up and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Green Wave have played some really tough opponents. September's schedule included Oklahoma, Ole Miss and UAB. Then, they started October on the road. Obviously, Houston is another talented opponent. Still, the Green Wave are at home and I believe that they're going to be bringing their best effort. Note that Houston is 4-11-1 ATS its past 16 as a road favorite of -3.5 to -7 points. (Nine of those were outright losses.) Also, recall that Tulane very nearly beat the Sooners. The Green Wave, who have an experienced offense, traded punches with the Cougars for a half, at Houston, last year. In fact, Tulane had a 24-21 lead at halftime. Playing at home, Houston pulled away in the second half. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS their last 11 lined home games though. This is a very big game for them. They're "battle tested" and I expect them to give their guests all they can handle. Grab the points.

I'm playing on the Raiders/Chargers OVER the total. I wasn't surprised that last night's game was low-scoring. However, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. When I'm playing an 'under,' I typically want games which will feature a lot of running. Naturally, the opposite is true when playing an 'over.' More passing plays are preferred. In this case, both teams rank in the top 5 in the NFL, in terms of passing attempts per game. LV is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, second most in the league. LA isn't far behind, at 42 attempts per game. They rank #1 and #4 respectively, in terms of passing yards per game. The Raiders have seen two of their three games produce 59 or more points. They've personally gone over the 30 mark in two of three. Despite facing some defenses which have been known to be stingy, no team has been able to hold them to less than 26 points. Admittedly, the Chargers have been playing solid defense. Still, their games have gotten progressively higher-scoring with the most recent producing 54 points. It should also be mentioned that they're dealing with several injuries on defense. Dating back to last season, the Raiders have seen seven of their last eight finish above the number. Both 2020 meetings produced 57 combined points. Both teams should be able to move the ball and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on TB/NE UNDER the total for the 1st half. What a matchup. Brady returns, as a world champion, to Foxboro. Obviously, he's going to want to perform his best. Obviously, Belichick the Patriots are going to do everything they can to try and stop him from doing so. Rather than worry about who will have the last laugh, I'd rather focus on the first half. The Bucs have played some high-scoring games. But that's been a lot to do with the teams that they've played. The Patriots have been playing much lower scoring games than any of the teams which Tampa has faced. New England's first three games had combined final scores of 33, 31 and 41. Halftime scores were 17, 16 and 20. Brady still has weapons. However, not having Gronkowski is a big deal. He's practically unstoppable at times and you know he likely would have had an impact in this game, if given the chance. While their defense remains stingy, the Patriots offense has seen better days. They've scored less than 17 in two of their three games. Look for points to be harder to come by, at least initially, than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on GB/PITT OVER the total. The Steelers do have some issues on the offensive line. However, they've still got a veteran QB who has a number of dangerous weapons at his disposal. Rothlisberger and co. know they'll need to improve offensively if they want to keep up with Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay ranks 27th in the league in terms of ppg (27.7) allowed. On offense, the Pack have scored 30 and 35 points in their last two games. The Pack have now seen six of their last seven, since last year, finish above the number. Off a 14-point loss to the Bengals, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Steelers were off a double-digit home loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the ML. The Lions, now 0-3 SU, came close against Baltimore but still came up short. That figures to be a tough loss to bounce back from. The Bears have played two tough road games, at Cleveland and at LA. So, its not entirely surprising that they lost those games. They did win their lone home game though, beating Cincinnati. I expect homefield to prove significant in this one. The Bears are 9-5 SU the last 14 times that they were listed as favorites. During that span, the Lions were 5-23 SU as underdogs. While the Lions managed a win in the last meeting, the Bears had won the previous five. Expect them to resume that dominance Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on SJ State and New Mexico State to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the Spartans to finish 'over' the total in their very first game of the season, back in late August. They scored 45 points for me that day, nearly going over the total themselves. Since that time, however, they've seen their next three games all stay below the number. Those results have absolutely worked in our favor, as they've kept this O/U number lower than it easily could have been. Note that all three of those were on the road. Now, they take a big step down in class, while also returning home. I expect them to put up a very big number. Indeed, the Aggies are not a good defensive team. Since giving up 30 and 28 points in their first two games, they've gotten worse. Over their last three games, they've given up 34, 35 and 41 points. The Aggies did manage to score 25, 43 and 21 themselves in those games. All three finished with greater than 58 points. The teams have met three times since 2010. All three of those games finished above the number. Look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Spartans are a much better team than they've shown. Their problem is that their last three games have come on the road. Their next is also on the road, before they have a big game here against San Diego State here in the middle of the month. That being the case, they're going to want to build confidence with a one-sided blowout. They're stronger on both sides of the ball and I fully expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Note that the line has come down from its opener, providing some additional value. These teams used to play in the same conference; the last meeting was a 47-7 destruction, the Spartans outgaining the Aggies by a 504-220 margin. While that was a number of years ago, we can expect another lopsided result tonight.  

I'm playing FSU on the ML. Syracuse is 3-1 while FSU is 0-4. Yet, the Seminoles are favored for good reason. The Noles, who played well enough to win last week, have faced a much tougher schedule. Three of their games have been against quality opponents. The Orange are just 5-17 SU the past 22 times that they were underdogs. They're also 0-7 SU in October, during that span. With a road game at UNC on deck, the Noles are absolutely coming in desperate. They're 6-0 SU all-time when hosting Syracuse. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on FSU/Syracuse OVER the total. When these teams met last (2019) the O/U line was 60. The previous year, their game had an O/U line of 69. We're working with a much lower number this week. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles had no problem moving the ball last week, as they racked up more than 450 yards against Louisville. Really, they could have easily scored more than they did. The problem was that they allowed more than 30 points for the second straight week. Dating back to last year, the Noles have allowed seven of their past eight opponents to score more than 30 points. The only one that didn't was 1-AA Jacksonville State. Syracuse is off a relatively low-scoring (45 points) game vs. Liberty. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring; the points dried up late. In their previous game, the Orange scored 62 points, all by themselves. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have produced more than 50 combined points. Expect this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on USC. The Trojans didn't play well last week. They're still a talented team though and they're going to be in an angry mood for this one. I expect them to take out their anger on an outmatched Colorado team. The Buffaloes have really struggled. After beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team, they only scored seven points against Texas A&M. Next, they lost 30-0 to Minnesota. (That looks even worse after the Gophers went on to lose as 30-point favorites against Bowling Green.) Then, last week, Colorado lost 35-13 against Arizona State. Those are all fairly tough opponents, but so is USC. Note that The Buffaloes are now 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. They've dominated the Buffaloes for years and that continues Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Tigers are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home. Both wins came by double-digits. The Vols lost their only road game by 24 points. Of course, those results are largely based on the opponents that these teams were facing. Still, homefield figures to prove significant. The Tigers have won 11 of 15 here the past few seasons. The Vols are 4-6 on the road, during the same span. Note that this is the only time all season that the Vols will play two road games in two weeks. I believe that the beating put on them by the Gators will take a toll in this early road game. Note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS the past six in the series. Also, note that Tennessee is just 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) its last seven as an underdog. The Vols won at Tennessee last year. However, the Tigers brought back considerably more from last year than did the Vols. Expect them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Iowa/Maryland OVER the total. While both teams have played well defensively, this is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both offenses have plenty of weapons; each offense brought back a lot from last year. The Hawkeyes have scored 34, 27, 30 and 24 points. That's been enough as their opponents haven't been able to keep up. Keep in mind that they were favored by more than three TD's in each of their last two games though. Now, they face the most capable team they've faced since upsetting instate rival Iowa State. I believe that the Terps will put up a big enough number that the Hawkeyes are going to need to score more than they've had to. Keep in mind that Maryland has scored 30, 62 and 67 in its three home games. When Iowa visited here in 2014, the O/U line was 45.5. The teams combined for 69 points. Look for history to repeat itself, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on Jacksonville/Cincinnati OVER the total. Both teams have seen two of their three games fall below the number. Those results have worked in a our favor, as the line has come down a bit from its opener and could easily be higher. A closer look shows that both Jacksonville's loan road game AND Cincinnati's lone home game were high-scoring. The Bengals only game here was against Minnesota. The O/U line was 47 and the teams combined for 51. Meanwhile, the Jags' lone road game (at Houston) had an O/U line of 45.5 and finished with 58 points. Going back further finds that the OVER is 6-0 (or 5-0-1 *depending whether using 45.5 or 46 for 12/16/18 O/U line) the past six times that the Bengals were favored. All six games produced greater than 45 points. In fact, eight of the last nine games that the Bengals have played as favorite have finished with more than 45 points. The other had 44. That includes a 58-point affair when these teams hooked up last October, Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Burrow has more weapons and more confidence now. In only the second time in NFL history that a rookie QB, who was taken #1, faces a QB who was #1 overall the previous year, look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting.

I'm playing JACKSONVILLE for the first half. The Jaguars are winless but they're getting better. I expect them to come out swinging. Urban Meyer was always a winner in college and you know he's dying for an opportunity to right the ship on National TV. Meyer had this to say about the team's week-to-week improvement: "First game, nothing. Second game, we made it through a half that we were playing pretty well. Third game, we're getting there. I'm looking for constant improvement. I'm looking for loyalty and faith in the locker room, which I have. That's never wavered. I'm not taking anything away from the Cardinals, we played well enough and if we don't make some mistakes, we could've won that game." The Bengals won by eight when these teams met last season. However, the score was 13-10, in favor of the Jags, when the teams went to the locker room. I feel that getting more than a field goal for the first half is generous and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Philadelphia/Dallas UNDER the total for the first half. Both teams come in with high hopes. Both are banged-up both each has their eyes on first place in the division. With NY and Washington a combined 1-5, that's where the winner of tonight's game will be. Last night's game saw 24 points scored in the first half and 34 in the second half. I expect this divisional battle to also get off to a relatively cautious start. The Cowboys are off a 20-17 game against the Chargers. The Eagles are off a 17-11 game against the 49'ers. Note that they're running the ball 30 times a game, thus far. That helps keep the clock moving. While the most recent was higher-scoring, two of the past three meetings between these teams had less than 17 points at halftime. Look for them to go into the locker-room with less than many will be expecting.  

I'm playing on SF. I won with the Packers on Monday night. That was against the Lions though. Now, they play on a short week against a much tougher team. I expect them to struggle. The Packers were obviously better than they showed against the Saints in Week 1. However, that 38-3 beating did expose some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they'll take on a stingy SF team, one which is already 2-0 and one which is fired up for its home opener. Last week, the 49ers held the Eagles to only 11 points. The favorite is 4-1 ATS the past five times that these teams faced each other, the home team winning each of the past four meeetings. The past two here at SF, games in 2019 and 2020, saw the 49'ers win by scores of 37-20 and 37-8. I expect another win and cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total for the first half. The 49'ers check in off a 19-11 win over the Eagles. They're going to try and establish the run early. Their 33 rushing attempts per game is second in the entire NFL. Those frequent running plays will help keep the clock moving. The Packers bounced back from their Week 1 beating (they only scored three points for the entire game) to beat up on Detroit last game. The defense looked a bit shaky out of the gate but got going as the game progressed. That should provide some early positive momentum for the defense. Like their hosts, the Pack will want to try and establish the run early. Two of the three meetings since 2019 have seen 24 or fewer points scored by halftime. Look for this one to do the same. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Detroit UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game, the Ravens run the ball the most in the NFL, so far this season. Indeed, the Ravens are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and the #2 team is averaging 162. The Ravens' defensive stats are a bit misleading due to the fact that they just got into a shootout against the Chiefs and an OT game against the Raiders. Needless to say, the Lions' offense isn't as dangerous as the Chiefs offense, or the Raiders offense. While Goff and co. admittedly started pretty well against Green Bay, they quickly came back to earth in the second half. The Lions would finish with 17 points for the game. Scoring figures to be tough for them again. That said, they're going to want to establish the run themselves, to try and keep Jackson on the sidelines. All things considered, this number is generously high. Look for the clock to keep moving and for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Cards have certainly gotten off to the better start. That's led to them laying a big number here. For an early road game, against a hungry Jags team, I believe it'll prove to be too much. In fact, I won't be surprised to see Jacksonville break through and finally win one. Keep in mind that the Cards only won by one last game (34-33) and that they are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a game where they scored 30 or more points. With big division games (Rams and SF) on deck, it should be easy to look past lowly Jacksonville. The Jags, on the other hand, are desperate for a victory; their full attention will be on the task at hand. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a field goal, a 17-14 win for the Cards. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on Colorado/ASU OVER the total. This is a very low total. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that last year's game had an O/U line of 49 and finished with 65 combined points. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings between these teams produced a minimum of 47 combined points. None of those games had an O/U line this low. That leads one to question WHY this O/U line is so low. That's, in large part, due to Colorado's offensive futility. While its true that the Buffaloes have indeed struggled to score, that's not going to continue. It helps that the Colorado offense won't have to contend with ASU's defensive end Travis Moore, who got hurt in the BYU game. That's the second defensive lineman that the Sun Devils have lost. ASU's offense has no problems though. Already averaging 31.7 ppg, the Sun Devils now get back running back Chip Trayanum (as well as return specialist D.J. Taylor.) Four of the last five meetings here have finished above the number. Additionally, the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that the Buffaloes were listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on FSU. I like the Seminoles to score the minor upset this afternoon. With an 0-3 record for the first time since 1976, everyone is pretty down on the Noles at the moment. Yes, losing to Jacksonville State is pretty sad. However, "letdowns" do happen to college teams and the Noles had just left it all on the field in a heartbreaking loss against Notre Dame. Last game, the Noles were beaten up on the road against Wake Forest. As we saw last night, however, the Deacons have a strong team this season. So, the losses against Notre Dame and at Wake Forest weren't unexpected. And the loss against Jacksonville State, though inexcusable, still "made sense." Keep in mind that FSU brought back 17 players from last year's team and that their coach is in his second year here. One of last year's worst losses came at the hands of these same Cardinals, at Louisville. Unlike the Noles, the Cardinals lost quite a lot from last year's team. They got pounded in their lone road game; they're just 2-8 their last 10 on the road. I say the Noles dig deep, get some payback from last year, and avoid the dreaded 0-4 start. 

I'm playing on Army/Miami Ohio UNDER the total. The Knights have seen all three of their games finish above the total thus far. I expect that to change Saturday afternoon. Miami allowed just seven points last game, a 42-7 win. As per usual, Army is going to run the ball. The Redhawks won't be able to stop the Knights ground game but their veteran linebackers will make things more difficult than Army's first few opponents. The Redhawks, who know full well what to expect Army to bring to the table, are among the leaders in their conference at making tackles for losses. Note that the UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Redhawks were off a SU victory. I see those stats improving here. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on Houston/Carolina UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game, the Texans run the ball the second most in the NFL, so far this season. (Only Baltimore has more rushing attempts per game.) The Panthers also like to pound the ball on the ground. With 30 rushing attempts per game, they're currently tied with a few other teams for the 5th most carries per game. That said, Carolina has a 2-0 record, thanks to its defense. Through two games, the Panthers are allowing just 10.5 points per game. That's the best defense, in terms of points allowed per game, in the entire league. Their 190 yards allowed per game also ranks #1 and their 4.1 yards per play ranks #2, second to only Buffalo. That's after the Panthers had just faced the Saints, too. (Remember, the Saints dropped 38 on Green Bay in Week 1.) On the other side of the ball, averaging 22.5 ppg, the Panthers' offense ranks only #19 in terms of points per game. These teams combined for 26 points (16-10 final) when they met in 2019. All three meetings over the past 10 years have produced 41 or fewer points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Marshall/Appalachian State UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 24 points when they faced each other last season, a 17-7 win for Marshall. The Thundering Herd check into this year's rematch off a high-scoring game against East Carolina. However, that's not typical for them. In their first two games, the Herd allowed just seven and 10 points. App. State is also a stingy team. Despite playing at Miami (and also having faced East Carolina) the Mountaineers have allowed just 19, 25 and 10 points. Off a 44-10 blowout victory, note that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Mountaineers were off a win of 20 or more points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on GB. As you probably saw, or heard, the Packers got hammered by the Saints in their opener. The Lions showed a little more life; they still lost but rallied from a big deficit to earn a backdoor cover. We know that the Packers have been the much better team for many years. That's very unlikely to change this season. The big question is, how will they react to the Week 1 beating? History suggests that they'll "bounce back big." The Packers were money off an ATS loss last season. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they had scored 15 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 10 points against Tampa last October, the Pack bounced back and scored 35 the next game, a 35-20 blowout win at Houston. Prior to that, after the 49'ers held them to eight points, the Pack responded with a 31-13 destruction of the Giants. A few weeks earlier, they had managed only 11 points against the Chargers. They immediately bounced back with a win and cover at Carolina. You get the idea. The "rebuilding" Lions are the perfect opponent to "bounce back" against. These teams met here exactly one year ago, to the day. The Packers doubled Detroit in that 9/20/20 game, a 42-21 rout. History repeats itself tonight. 

I'm playing on KC/Baltimore UNDER the total. When most think Chiefs/Ravens, they think of Mahomes and Jackson going h2h, each putting up a ton of points. Some forget that these are two capable defenses and that both teams are going to do their best to control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Prior to their Week 1 (OT) game against the Raiders, the Ravens had seen their previous four games finished with 40, 41, 33 and 20 combined points. In their last three home games, they allowed 13, 14 and 17 points. Baltimore ran the ball 34 times for 189 yards against Oakland. The Ravens will try and employ a similar strategy to help keep Mahomes off the field. As you know, running the ball tends to keep the clock moving. Speaking of running the ball, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Ravens rushed for 150 or more yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve tonight. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. (First Half) The Titans were embarrassed by their Week 1 effort. They're going to come out swinging right from the opening kickoff. Note that they're 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a double-digit loss; four of those wins were on the road, too. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS their last six, when off an ATS win. These teams have met three times since 2010. All three meetings were within a field goal at halftime. Scores were 9-7, 10-7 and 7-7. We're working with more than a field goal and I expect this one to also be close, at the break. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the moneyline. Last week, I played on the Carolina Panthers against the Jets. NY had its "quarterback of the future" going against its "quarterback of the past." I mentioned that the "QB of the past" (Darnold) had more to work with though and that his team was playing at home. This game sets up similarly in that the Joe Burrow and the Bengals are up against their longtime QB of the past, Andy Dalton. While Dalton may not have too many more wins left in his career, obviously, this is one he absolutely wants to have. The Bears are playing at home. Off a loss, they're going to be hungry and desperate. Remember, the Bengals are still just 1-13 SU their past 14 road games, 6-23 SU their last 29 as underdogs. Expect Dalton and the Bears to dig deep and get it done. 

I'm playing on Clev/Houston UNDER the total. These teams both started the season with an 'over.' Those results have helped to keep this week's O/U line generously high. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the Texans put up a big number against the Jags, scoring figures to be much harder to come by this week and going forward. The Texans want to run the ball but the Browns held the Chiefs to just 73 yards on the ground. These teams played last year. The O/U line was 46.5 and they combined for only 17 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 the past 10 meetings, 4-0 the past four here at Cleveland. All four games finished with 44 or fewer points and the last three had combined scores of 17, 30 and 22. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing GEORGIA STATE on the moneyline. The Panthers had a very tough opening schedule. Their first two games came against Army and at North Carolina. They didn't play well in losing against Army but stumbling against UNC was expected. After this game, the Panthers play at Auburn. Next, is Appalachian State. In other words, they absolutely need to win this game. Or, they'll quickly find themselves 0-4 and looking at possibly going 0-5. Not what they had in mind, considering that they were 6-4 last season and considering that they returned 19 starters. Charlotte absolutely represents a big step down in class and is a team that the Panthers can handle. Charlotte is just 8-26 SU its past 34 on the road, 13-43 SU its past 56 as an underdog. Panthers win.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Red Wolves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Huskies are going to be in a very angry mood. Arkansas State left it all on the field last game but ultimately came up short, a tough 55-50 loss against Memphis. The Red Wolves had a late rally and finished the game with an edge in stats. Still, to lose that type of game stings. Now, they travel West to take on a superior opponent that will show them no mercy. Keep in mind that the Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they had allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. The Red Wolves' strength is their passing attack. However, the Huskies haven't given up a TD through the air yet and are only giving up 74.5 ypg (#1 in the country) through the air. Yes, the Washington offense has struggled thus far. The Red Wolves defense is weak against both the run and the pass though and provides a perfect opportunity to get healthy. Washington's superior offensive and defensive line play proves significant, the Huskies getting back on track in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on WVU. I won with the Hokies when they upset UNC. So, I'm fully aware that they're a capable team. That was at home though, where the Hokies enjoy a great homefield advantage. Now, they're on the road, facing an upset and experienced WVU team. Yet, the Hokies are getting far fewer points than they were at home against the Tar Heels. Note that they're just 2-4 SU/ATS the past six times that they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3. They're also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road and 0-4 ATS after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game. Additionally, note that depth at receiever is a bit of an issue for the Hokies with tight-end Mitchell out with injury. Off its loss at Maryland, the Mountaineers took out some of their anger on LIU, delivering a 66-0 thrashing. That'll give them plenty of confidence going into this one but they're still mad from the Maryland loss. They're 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 as home favorites, 6-0-1 ATS ther last seven at home. Expect them to improve on those stats Sat. afternoon. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing WASHINGTON on the ML. Both teams stumbled in Week 1. Washington was arguably better. Washington lost both meetings last season. Both were extremely close. One was decided by a single point, the other by a field goal. The previous meeting before those was decided in OT. All those close games are a big reason why I'm electing to play on the moneyline. While it may be another close one, this time, I expect the Football Team to be the team which comes away with the victory. Washington had an edge in total yards in both games last season, 337-240 and 402-350. The Fitzpatrick injury may turn out to be a blessing in disguise; Heinicke brings new energy and the ability to improvise. He sparked the offense when he came in last Sunday. The Washington pass rush will get going in this one and playing at home, on a short week, will prove beneficial. The Giants are just 5-21 SU the past 26 times that they were getting points. Washington wins. 

I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Vegas UNDER the total for the first half. The Ravens may be depleted at the running back position but that's not going to stop them from establishing the run early on. They'll be doing so against what should be an improved Oakland defense. The Raiders have a new defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley) and the addition of defensive-end Yannick Ngakoue, a former Raven, should help the pass rush. Bradley noted: "....it always starts with stopping the run. I don’t know a team like this to say, 'Hey, we’re going to stop the run. We are going to go out there and compete our tail off and there is a mindset that we know this team can do a lot of damage running the ball.' So, that’s the part that right now I like the way it’s going, but we'll see on Monday night. I got a good feeling about the group. They are working hard together. They understand what is asked of them." The UNDER is 6-1 the Ravens' last seven road games. Their most recent road game was tied 3-3 at halftime. The two before that both had 20 points at halftime. I look for this one to also start off lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. After years of dominating the division, the Patriots finally stumbled last season. Its a new year though and I expect Bellichick to have his team absolutely ready for Week 1. The Pats are 6-1 SU in September the past couple of seasons. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 1-6. We know the Pats are always stingy. This year's team has added some bigtime players to their defensive front. Miami was able to run successfully against New England but that figures to be much more difficult in this game. The Dolphins are also building a fairly strong defense and they're likely going to be tough to run against. Belichick knows their defensisve system well though and he'll know how to exploit the soft spots in it. On offense, I believe that the Pats have the edge. I expect Tua to have some issues with the pressure he will face and throwing against a tough NE secondary. Look for the Patriots to send an early message in this one. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Wentz going down prior to the season obviously wasn't ideal. As of this writing on Monday, Wentz was getting a full team practice in. As long as he holds up - and he reportedly looked sharp in practice (7-on-7 and individual drills) the previous week - he'll be behind center on Sunday. Whether it's Wentz or Eason, the Colts are a quality team which is hoping for big things this season. While Seattle has been tough for years and should be again this season, there are some areas of concern. Note that Seattle was 0-6 ATS its final six road games of 2020. Though preseason games, of course, need to taken with a grain of salt, I like the fact that the Colts were 3-0 compared to Seattle's 1-2. Reich's Colts already have a winning attitude and they're going to bring that mentality into Sunday. The home team is 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that these teams met. I see the Colts, 7-2 SU their last nine home games, improving on those stats in this one. 

I'm playing on the Lions/49ers UNDER the total. The Lions and the fans are going to be fired up. That said, this isn't an easy matchup. I expect their new offense to struggle against a tough SF defense. Losing left-tackle Decker to injury doesn't help matters. Remember, the 49ers ranked #4 in the NFL last season, in terms of yards allowed per game. With the offense likely to have trouble moving the ball, that means that the Lions are going to need to play their very best on defense, if they want to compete. The Lions will plan on a fairly heavy dose of the run to try and keep the SF offense off the field and to try and slow down the SF pass rush. While the 49ers offense has some weapons, the team averaged just 23.5 ppg last year. That was only 21st in the league. They'll also be looking to run the ball with regularity. The 49'ers have been seeing their Week 1 games finish below the total in recent years. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final combined score to also prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing CAROLINA on the moneyline. Jets fans see this game as a battle of their old QB vs. their new win. Darnold goes for the Panthers while Wilson starts for NY. It's an entire team effort though and Wilson's weapons are pretty modest. Darnold is arguably working with the better team and the Panthers have the venue in their favor. The Panthers have invested heavily on the defense the last couple of offseasons and they're going to be better on that side of the ball this year. I say they come away with the Opening Day victory. 

I'm playing on stanford/usc OVER the total. I played against the Cardinal last week. So, I was happy to see them score only seven points. That was a very early starting time though and I believe that worked against Stanford. Tonight, the Cardinal are back in the Pacific Time Zone and I'm expecting a much better offensive effort. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that the Cardinal had scored less than 20 points in their previous game. After scoring just 17 in its first game of 2019, the Cardinal played USC in their next game. That game had an O/U line of 44 and finished with 65. Next, after scoring six against Oregon, the Cardinal combined with OSU for 59. After a 16-point effort against UCLA, the Cardinal combined with Arizona for 72. A 13-point showing at Colorado was proceeded by a 71-point game at WSU. Finally, after a 20-pt offensive line vs Cal, the Cardinal combined with ND for 69. You get the idea. I'll also mention that the OVER is 8-1 the past nine times that USC had allowed less than 20, in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Huskies got caught looking ahead to this game and were upset as big favorites last week. As a result, not many are giving them a chance in this one. They're a much better team than they showed though and I'm confident we'll see that this evening. Last week's results have worked in our favor, in helping to create additional line value. Michigan was able to have its way on offense against Western Michigan but the Wolverines will have a much tougher time against a tough Washington defense. The Huskies are still 4-1 ATS their last five non-conf. games while the Wolverines are 2-3 ATS their last five. Going back further finds Michigan at 4-11 ATS its last 15 against the Pac-12. While I'm aware, they're banged up at the receiver position, I believe that the Huskies are going to surprise a lot of people and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN. While I respect the Owls, I also believe that Georgia Southern is better than many realize. The Eagles ran for 365 yards in winning their opening game. They controlled the clock for more than 35 minutes. On the other hand, the Owls allowed more than 400 yards on the ground, giving up nearly nine yards per carry. Obviously, FAU played a MUCH tougher opponent. So, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the Eagles will still have success on the ground. While they didn't cover in their Week 1 win, the Eagles are 8-0 ATS their last eight, after an ATS loss. Having beaten FAU by a score of 20-3 last year, they're coming in confident. The Owls are 2-12 ATS their last 14, as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Nittany Lions are off a big upset win. They only scored 16 points though and they're laying more than that here. I believe that's asking a lot. Off its win at Wisconsin and with Auburn on deck, this is a very tough scheduling spot. Note that PSU is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 home games. The Cardinals are an experienced team. They put up 31 points in winning their opener by double-digits. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 when getting points, 14-6 ATS over the years against Big Ten teams. Grab the points and look for this one to be much closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Illini scored an upset of Nebraska, only to then lose to UTSA. Keep in mind this is a team with a new coach, essentially in rebuild mode. Now, they're on the road to take on a stronger Virginia team. Off a 43-0 romp, the Cavs are full of confidence. They're 9-4-1 ATS their last 14, when laying points and they're 10-3-1 ATS (13-1 SU) their last 14 at home. That home field advantage should definitely be working in their favor for this 11am ET start. The Cavs defense was dominant last week. They didn't even allow a first down until their opponent was on its fifth possession. In the end, Virginia would surrender only 183 total yards. Eventually, the offense got going to the tune of 545 yards. I don't feel that the Illini are ready for what they'll find here; I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Cavs. 

I'm playing on Boise/Utep UNDER the total. While they came up short against UCF, the Broncos are tough on both sides of the ball. Stepping down in class, they're big favorites against UTEP for a reason. While the Broncos will score, I believe that they're going to emphasize shutting down the Miners and dominating defensively, more than running up the score offensively. UTEP has played well so far against inferior opponents. The Miners' running game has impressed and they've done a good job of getting pressure on opposing QBs. They'll be doing everything they can to run the ball in an effort to chew up the clock and keep the Boise offense on the sideline. With the Miners coming in undefeated, note that the UNDER is 7-1 the past eight times that Boise hosted a team with a winning road record. I say the UTEP offense struggles to score and this one proves lower-scoring overall than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Dallas/TB OVER the total. I'm expecting to see plenty of points in this year's first game. Brady and the Bucs couldn't be stopped by the end of last season. They scored 30 or more points in each of their final seven games. In other words, the Cowboys know they're going to have to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete. The Cowboys have their QB back and that makes them a far more dangerous offense. The Cowboys may not have to contend with Bucs starting saftey, Jordan Whitehead. He's been out with injury and still may not be ready in time for Thursday's game. Either way, I expect Dallas to have some success through the air. Prescott's receivers include Amari Cooper, who recently proclaimed himself to be the "best receiver in the NFL." In fact, it could be argued that the Cowboys' trio of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb is second (in the entire NFL) to only Tampa's trio of Evans, Godwin and Brown. The OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that Dallas was an underdog. Those games had combined scores of 54, 74, 54 and 59. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on ND/FSU UNDER the total. We've already seen some serious defensive battles. This one figures to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Irish allowed just 19.7 ppg last season. They'll be stingy again. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame returns only three offensive starters. Six players they are replacing were draft picks. Needless to say, there will be some adjustments that need to be made early in the season. The Seminoles have plenty of returning starters and should be improved on both sides of the ball. It's still going to be tough to consistently move the ball against the ND defense though. Last year's meeting did finish above the total. However, that wasn't in the first week of the season and the Irish had an offense which had returned its QB and every starter on its offensive line. This year, we're working with an even higher O/U number than last year, too. Both teams played a low-scoring game to start their season last year. ND beat Duke 27-13 while FSU lost 16-13 to Georgia Tech. More of the same this evening. 

I'm playing CLEMSON on the moneyline. This line has fallen considerably. Now, we're able to get the Tigers on the moneyline for a very reasonable price. For me, in a game which could well be close, not having to worry about laying any points is luxury worth laying that short price for. Obviously, Lawrence has moved on. You don't just replace a talent like that. That said, Uiagalelei is a legitimate Heisman candidate. He's a big QB who dominated when given a chance last season. He'll be throwing to a talented group of receivers including Justyn Ross. (Mel Kiper Jr ranks Ross, who missed last season, as a top 25 prospect for the 2022 NFL draft.) On the other side of the ball, an experienced Clemson defense is among the very best in the country. Of course, Georgia is also one of the very best teams in the country. Like the Tigers, the Bulldogs will be stingy defensively. However, Clemson returned considerably more starters on that side of the ball and that figures to play an important role in this one. While both teams were given an equal number of tickets to ensure the crowd for this "neutral site" is equal, the fact that the game is being played in Charlotte - a "Clemson town," should favor the Tigers. In what should be an exciting battle, look for Clemson to find a way. 

I'm playing on WVU/Maryland UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with plenty of line value. The Mountaineers should put up quite a few points this year, as they've got plenty of weapons on offense. Their defense is also excellent though and will be tough to score against. Last year, WVU held opposing teams to 291.4 ypg, #4 in the country. With nine returning defensive starters, the Terps will also be stingy this season. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Terps were underdogs, 6-1 their last seven games overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in WVU's last six, as the road team. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on K-STATE. While this game will be played at a neutral site, the Wildcats will have the majority of the fans in their favor. The early starting time stongly favors K-State and Stanford coach David Shaw is the first to admit it. He had this to say, when learning about the schedule:

"This is either complete disregard, or lack of understanding how difficult it is to be a West Coast team, that travels east and gets forced to play an early kickoff game ..." More recently he added: "I still think it's ridiculous."

While the venue and kickoff time should favor K-State, the Wildcats also have the more experienced offense. They've got 10 returning starters on that side of the ball compared to six for Stanford. The Wildcats should be better on both sides of the ball this season. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS their last 10 as underdogs. During that span, the Cats are 5-2 ATS as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday morning.

I'm playing on MSU/Northwestern UNDER the total. We saw a high-scoring game in the Big Ten last night but I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair. Recent meetings between these teams have finished above the total. They've also had lower O/U lines than this one though. While last year's game finished with 49 points, the Wildcats lost a lot on offense from last year. They'll be working with a QB and lost their top four receivers from last year. With the offensive line a strength, that should translate to a lot of running the ball in this one. Also, the Wildcats will rely on their defense. They allowed a mere 15.9 ppg from last year and will be stingy once again. While the Spartans are experienced on offense, keep in mind that they only averaged 18 ppg last year. The Spartan defense is also fairly experienced with five of their top six tacklers returning. Expect it to translate to a low-scoring opener. 

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year.  Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on East Carolina / Appalachian State UNDER the total. While both offenses have some threats, these are two experienced defenses. ECU QB Ahlers is an exciting player but I expect him to have some trouble against a stingy Mountaineer defense. Inside linebackers Jackson and Cobb each had more than 90 tackles last season. Each added some sacks while Jackson also had a couple of picks. On offense, the Mountaineers will feature a heavy dose of the run, which will help to chew the clock up. Remember, Peoples just ran for over 300 yards in App. State's bowl win back in December. While the Pirates defense has admittedly struggled in recent seasons, Coach Houston has a defensive background and this is now his third year. That said, ECU should be better defensively this season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the past five Pirate September games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE STATE. The Blazers won the C-USA championship again last season. The Gamecocks have been dominating the Ohio Valley. Naturally, UAB is favored. There's a lot to like about the Gamecocks in this one though and this is a very generous spread. I really like the fact that they've had a spring season under their belts. I like that Jacksonville State has a senior QB with 61 career TD passes to his credit. UAB replaces its career leading rusher and the Gamecocks have held nine straight (reg. season) opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. These campuses are close to each other, so both will want to play hard. That said, UAB could easily already be thinking about next week's showdown with Georgia. Finally, I like the fact that the coaches are friends. In fact, they were in the same graduating class and they've previously worked together. In a game that may well prove a lot closer than many will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Southern Utah and SJ State OVER the total. The Spartans were a profitable 'under' team last winter. Seven of their last eight games, including each of their last five, finished below the total. This is a new season though and a relatively low number. Importantly, a closer look shows that things weren't as bleak offensively as all those 'unders' makes it sound. Yes, the Spartans struggled to score in their New Year's Eve Bowl game against Ball State. They scored 30 or more in each of their final four regular season games though and 28 or more in each of their last six. This year, the offense brings back nine starters and will be playing behind a veteran offensive line. A game against Southern Utah provides an opportunity to immediately get healthy offensively and get rid of the bad taste from the Ball State loss. While SJ State will put up a big number, the Thunderbirds aren't without offensive talent. They'll contribute. QB Miller started all six games last season and threw for 1700+ yards and 15 TDs. They've got an NFL prospect (Braxton Jones) on the offensive line. Running back Duckett is solid and Oregon transfer JR Watts brings speed at the WR position and an opportunity to beat the Spartans deep. Look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. 

I'm playing on KC. Talk about a dream matchup. Brady, considered by many to be the greatest of all-time, against Mahomes, arguably the greatest right now. With all due respect to Brady, I do believe that Mahomes is "currently" the better QB. He plays at a different level and does things that other QBs simply can't do. He doesn't get phased either. Unflappable. You saw them turn the ball over and fall behind early against Buffalo in the Conf. Championship game. Mahomes didn't blink. He calmly led them back. Remember last year's playoffs? The Chiefs were behind by double-digits EVERY game. Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl. That includes the game against the Texans where they down 24-0. They won 51-31. While I don't expect the Chiefs to fall behind by double-digits in this one, its a comfortable feeling knowing that Mahomes is never out of it. 

Though Arians got the better of a young Matt LaFleur in the NFC title game, I believe that Andy Reid gives the Chiefs a coaching advantage. I firmly believe that he's a better coach than he was earlier in his career. Here's an excerpt of what I said about Reid prior to last year's SB: "... Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating 'thats my coach, best I ever had.' Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time ..."

Mahomes outplayed Brady here back in November. I expect him to do so again, the Chiefs hoisting the trophy for the second straight year, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/KC OVER the total. As of this writing, it remains unclear if Mahomes will be able to play or not. Obviously, he'll want to play. Its not up to him though. Obviously, if he's fit to go, the Chiefs want him in there, as do I. Here's what John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN: "We certainly expect Mahomes to play. We moved the line up to [Chiefs] -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive." I expect him to be in there, too. With or without Mahomes, however, the Chiefs are going to need to score a lot of points. On a windy day in Buffalo, the Bills won with defense last week. That game notwithstanding, they're here because of their offense though. The Bills average 30.3 ppg. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of points scored and total yards. The Chiefs are number in the latter category. In the event that Mahomes doesn't play, Reid is still going to be aggressive. Henne now has some playoff snaps under his belt and he certainly has some bigtime weapons at his disposal. Neither of these offenses will be stopped on Sunday. Expect a shootout. 

I'm playing KC on the moneyline. While I absolutely respect the Bills, I don't believe that they're quite ready to beat the champs. While he hasn't been officially cleared, I'm making this selection under the assumption that Mahomes will play. Assuming that's the case, I expect a typical Mahomes like performance from the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Allen is right there amongst the best in the league, but he's still not Mahomes. One could argue that the Bills are somewhat fortunate to be here. The Colts outgained them by quite a lot in the Wildcard Rd, putting up nearly 500 (472) total yards, more than 300 through the air. Yes, the Bills' defense bounced back with a much better effort against Baltimore. I still believe that the champs have the edge on that side of the ball though. Remember, KC held Buffalo to a season-low 206 yards in the earlier meeting. While both teams should score plenty of points, ultimately, I expect KC to get at least one more stop, punching its ticket back to the Super Bowl. 

I'm playing GB on the moneyline. Many shy away from the moneyline in football and basketball but it can often be the way to go. In this case, I believe that the Packers are peaking at the right time and they've got a lot of things going in their favor. I like the fact that Brown was offiically ruled out for Tampa. Talk about an epic showdown. Brees vs. Brady was good but a Rodgers/Brady showdown is even better. Playing at an extremely high level and playing at home, when its all said and done, I expect the younger Rodgers to emerge victorious. While Brees was still dangerous, he was also clearly past his prime. The same cannot be said of Rodgers. The season that Rodgers just delivered was simply remarkable. He enters the playoffs at the very top of his game. If you listened to Rodgers after last week's win, you would have heard him comment on how much having some fans at Lambeau gave the Packers a lift. I expect that to be the case once again. While the Bucs benefitted greatly from winning the turnover battle against the Saints, the Packers manhandled the Rams. That was a defense that made Wilson and the Seahawks look terrible. Yet, Rodgers was absolutely comfortable. Of course, the Packers three-headed rushing attack (Jones, Williams, Dillon) played a pivotal role. The offensive line was fantastic. In addition to the huge advantage of playing at home, I like the fact that he Packers have had an extra day of preparation than the Bucs. (They played last Saturday, while TB played Sunday.) Rodgers has recently started to receive the accolades which he deserves. However, for much of his career, he's been playing second fiddle. First, to Favre in Green Bay. Then, to guys like Manning and Brady. Those days are over. Expect Rodgers to get the better of Brady, the Packers punching their ticket to the Super Bowl. 

I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on LA/GB UNDER the total. Without a doubt, Rodgers has had a great year. However, he hasn't faced a defense this good. He can ask Russell Wilson if he wants confirmation. The Rams game against Seattle finished above the total. However, the Rams still arguably won that one with their defense and thats certainly why they were in the playoffs to begin with. Prior to the Seattle game, LA had seen its previous four games all stay below the number, allowing an average of less than 11 ppg. Donald has been held out of practice but has said that he'll be good to go. While Rodgers rightfully gets all the headlines, the Packers defense quietly closed the season in top form. The Pack held each of their final three opponents below the 17-point mark. Four of their past five opponents scored fewer than 17 points, the other managed 24. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Buckeyes against Clemson. However, this Alabama team is in an entirely different class. The Buckeyes were on a mission to avenge last year's loss against Clemson. Obviously, they want to take the next step and beat Alabama, too. However, even if they don't, they've already proven that they belong and have "accomplished their mission." Coach Day commented: " ... This was big for us. This was a statement for us as a program to win a CFP game, especially after what happened last year. And to play the way we did, it means a lot for our program." For Alabama, on the other hand, nothing has been accomplished. This is a team which is on a mission to win the National title. As impressive as they were in beating up on Clemson, the Buckeyes got beaten up themselves in the process. QB Fields, the hero of the Sugar Bowl win, had this to say after the game: " ... I took like a shot or two in the medical tent and just ran back out there. But I mean it's pretty much my whole right torso that's messed up, a little bit of my hip ... " As much as I respect the Buckeyes, the Tide are simply better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will put up a big number, as it has done every game this season; ultimately, Ohio State won't be able to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. 

I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. 

I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing SEATTLE on the moneyline. Even if the Rams had a healthy Goff, winning here was going to be very difficult. They don't though. He had thumb surgery and may not play. If he does, it'll be 12 days after surgery and in the cold. He'd be highly unlikely to be 100%. Wolford threw for 231 yards with 0 TDs and an INT in his first start. Those are hardly the type of numbers needed to compete against Russell Wilson. Note that the home team won (and covered) both games during the regular season. While I do like the Seahawks to cover, out of respect for the Rams' defense, I'm going with the moneyline. Its worth noting that Seattle is 30-34-1 ATS (47%) the past 65 times that it was a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range. Yet, the Hawks were 46-19 SU (71%) in those same games. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. No doubt about it, the Bills had a great season. However, the Colts were "quietly" very good, too. While the Bills outscored opposing teams by an impressive 7.9 ppg, the Colts weren't far behind. They outscored teams by an average of 5.6 points. Everyone expects the Bills to win and with those expectations, comes pressure. Keep in mind that this is unfamiliar territory for most of these Bills. On the other hand, Indianapolis shouldn't be feeling the same type of pressure. The Colts coach, former Buffalo QB Frank Reich, had this to say of his team: "We should be loose, we should be aggressive, we should be able to play our best football game of the year because no one's going to give us a chance. It's the us- against-the-world mentality. If you were around the team like I am day in and day out, you'd understand where I get the confidence to think we can beat anyone in this tournament.'' Reich went on to say: "It starts with what we believe, we have the team to win it all. We've got the right players, the right coaches and the belief and confidence in each other to win it all. I can tell you on a personal note, in my 26 years in the NFL, I've been on teams that have won 11 games eight times. Six of those eight went to the Super Bowl.'' Led by their veteran QB, look for Reich's Colts, 4-2 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to give the Bills all they can handle, with a great shot at the outright upset.