Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Given the play of both the offenses and defenses in Week 1, I believe that this number is generously high. LA ran the ball 40 times in its opener and scored 20 points in total. The heavy dose of running plays helped to chew up the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Rams new look defense was solid. At least, in the second half. The Cowboys managed only three points and 139 total yards after the break. MacVay noted: McVay said. ''...I like the way our defense settled in the game.'' It should be noted that the Rams stopped the Cowboys twice on fourth down while also stopping the Cowboys nine of 12 times on third down. As for the Eagles, Wentz got sacked eight times last week, while also getting picked off twice. They're going to be anxious to avoid a repeat performance, particularly with Aaron Donald coming to town. The Eagle offense managed only 90 total yards in the second half. While Doug Pederson may claim otherwise, I expect he'll be a little less aggresive (more run plays) to try and protect his QB. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were arguably stingier than the score indicates. They held Washington to just 239 total yards of offense. The bottom line is that I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tenn/Denver UNDER the total. Both these teams were in the top half of the league, in terms of a rushing attempts, last season. A relatively heavy dose of the run shoud keep the clock moving in this one. Both teams also ranked in the top half of the leauge, in terms of points allowed and in terms of rushing yards allowed, per attempt. Additionally, Denver was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season. The Broncos ranked 28th in terms of points scored (17.6) and also 28th in terms of total yards (298.6) per game. These teams met last October and the final score was 16-0. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 1490 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Houston UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'over' (for the first half) when these teams met in the playoffs. So, I'm well aware that they can score points in a hurry. That said, for the opening game of the season, with no preseason, I feel that the the offenses won't be clicking the way that they were in January; the timing is likely to be just a little off. Houston has some new faces on offense. Keep in mind that the Chiefs slowed things down in their SB win and held SF to 20 total points, that game staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Navy UNDER the total. BYU is nearly always stingy and with plenty of experience on that side of the ball, that should again be the case. The Cougars return seven starters on that side of the ball and several others who got plenty of playing time. Not always known for its defense, Navy is also expecting to be relatively stout this season. Coach Niumatalolo noted: ''We're counting on our defense to be our strength. As we get our quarterback group going, we're going to rely on our defense a lot. I have total faith in the them.'' The offense, a work in progress, has been hindered by a late start, shorter practices and safety protocols, due to the pandemic. While the Cougars return QB Wilson, he loses his receiving weapons. His tight-end (last year's leading receiver) got hurt and his three top receivers from last year are all gone. Look for points to prove harder to come by than many will be expecting. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Southern Miss UNDER the total. The Jags don't win many road games. In fact, they're 0-12 under Steve Campbell, when playing on the road. So, I'm reluctant to back them. Yet, I do expect them to fight hard and I'm not confident laying the big number with the Eagles, either. Instead, I believe that the value lies with the total. The Golden Eagles still have their star QB (Abraham) but he lost some weapons. Indeed, three of their top four offensive playmakers have moved on. Perhaps more importantly, they're learning new systems with a new offensive (and defensive) coordinator. That's significant given that they got less practice time than normal. They'll very likely win but I don't expect them to put up a huge number in the process. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than expected. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 332 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/SF UNDER the total. Both conference championship games finished above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a generously high O/U line for the big game. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The 49ers are here, in large part, to their defense. While they eventually gave up some points, they held the Packers scoreless through the first half, making Rodgers look bad. On the season, they allow just 18.9 ppg and 279 ypg. Though more known for their offense, the Chiefs defense is better than people realize. They allow a respectable 20.2 ppg and 357 ypg. Going into the game against the Titans, people said they were vulnerable against the run and that they would have trouble against Henry. After all, Henry had been running wild. They silence those critics though, effectively taking him out of the game, or at least limiting him. The 49ers only played two games with a total of 50 or greater all season and both of those finished below the number. They've also seen the UNDER go 3-1 against AFC teams and 2-0 the past two times that they played with two week's rest in between games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. |