Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 107 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. As you know, Alabama has enjoyed a lot of success on this stage. As you also know, Alabama won the first meeting convincingly. The Tide have been beating the Bulldogs for years. Yet, despite all that, Georgia is favored. So, what's different this time? The loss of Metchie III may not seem like much but its a pretty big deal. Yes, the Tide still have Jameson Williams. Perhaps the top receiver in the country, he killed the Bulldogs in the first meeting. However, the absence of Metchie and a Georgia team intent on slowing him down, will make Williams find the going tougher this time. Alabama compensated for Metchie's absence by running the bal a lot against the Bearcats. However, the Bulldogs are far stingier against the run and won't be pushed around on the line the way that Cincinnati was. These teams averaged roughly the same amount of points. Alabama averaged 41. Georgia averaged 39. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs had a big edge. They allowed less than 10 ppg. Bama allowed nearly 20. Five teams gave the Tide real trouble this season: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M. Georgia faced three of those five teams and crushed all three of them. The combined score of its win against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn was 105-17. Yet, the Tide beat those teams by only 11 combined points. Enough's enough. It's Georgia's time to shine. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 170 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. It goes without saying that both teams are loaded, on both sides of the ball. As you're likely aware, the first meeting was fairly high-scoring. It finished comfortably above the total, Alabama winning 41-24. While we're working with a considerably higher O/U number for the rematch, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Both teams were dominant defensively last game. Alabama limited Michigan to 11 points. Georgia held Cincinnati to only six. In last year's big bowl win over Ohio State, the Tide got four combined TDs from Devonta Smith and Najee Harris. Of course, they no longer have either of those players, both having moved on to the pros. The Tide also got a big game from Metchie III in last year's final. He had eight receptions and averaged better than 10 yards per catch. The Tide won't have him either though. That's a big deal. Metchie had a TD and averaged better than 16 yards per reception in Alabama's December win over Georgia. However, it was Jameson Williams who really torched the Bulldogs. Now, with Metchie out, we saw Alabama change the way that they used Williams. He started doing a lot of the things Metchie had previously done. Either way, Metchie's absence will help allow Georgia to be much better at guarding Williams. A closer look at the stats from the first game shows that it was only one "wild" second quarter where the majority of the points were scored. They only had three in the first, seven in the third and a relatively modest 17 in the fourth. So, 27 points in those three quarters. They're not going to score 38 points in the second quarter this time. In the first meeting, the Tide threw the ball 44 times, while running only 26 times. The Tide had an opposite approach last week though. They ran the ball 47 times, while throwing 28, in the win over Cincinnati. I expect more frequent running plays to be part of the game plan, once again. While the Bulldogs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense against Michigan, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they had gained more than 450 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one turns into a lower-scoring than expected, defensive battle. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 57 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Ole Miss OVER the total. Both teams closed out the regular season on 'under' streaks. Those results have kept this O/U line in the 50s, when it otherwise could have easily been in the 60s. Note that Ole Miss games average 64.9 ppg. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both these offenses can put up big numbers. Baylor averages 32.5 ppg. At 35.9 ppg, Ole Miss averages even more. Admittedly, the Baylor defense is solid. However, its not dominant like a Georgia or Alabama defense. The Bears still gave up double-digits in points in each of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rebel defense is mediocre, at best. The Rebels allowed at least 14 points in all 12 games this season. Even Austin Peay scored 17 against them. Ole Miss coach Kiffin is known for his tendency to play aggressively. He doesn't mind rolling the dice on fourth down. That'll often lead to points, for and against. On the season, they allowed an average of 25 ppg. Six of the past nine Sugar Bowls have seen at least 54 points scored. Last year's game produced 77 points. They likely won't get that many this year but they'll get "enough." Go with the Over. |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa UNDER 44 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Iowa/Kentucky UNDER the total. We saw some lower-scoring games yesterday and I expect that to continue for this afternoon's Citrus Bowl. This O/U line is low for good reason; Iowa can have real trouble scoring. The Hawkeyes managed only three points last game. That's three times in their last seven games that they scored seven or less. While the offense is far from dominant, the Hawkeyes defense is typically solid. Kentucky got involved in a couple of high-scoring games down the stretch. However the Wildcats are also capable of playing stingy defense. They've allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Earlier, they held Florida to 13 and South Carolina to 10. Look for a low-scoring, defensive affair. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan UNDER 46 | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Michigan UNDER the total. Naturally, both offenses are very good. The defenses are arguably even better though. Prior to the Alabama game, the Bulldogs were giving up nothing. No other team, except for the Crimson Tide, scored more than 17 against them. For the season, they allowed an average of only 9.5 points. The Michigan defense was also stout. They closed the season by limiting Iowa to three points. On the season, the Wolverines allowed an average of only 16.1 points. The Wolverines are going to run the ball but that's going to be tough against a Georgia defense which will be loading up against the run. The Bulldogs are also going to be running the ball regularly. That's going to help keep the clock moving and ultimately lead to a low-scoring affair. The UNDER is 4-1-1 the last six times that Georgia was off a SU loss and the UNDER is also 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulldogs were favored in a bowl game. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. |
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12-31-21 | Central Michigan v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WSU/CMU OVER the total. The Chippewas can score points with the best of them. They scored more than 30 points in each of their final five games. The defense allowed 30 or more points in three of those games, too. In two games against teams from Power Five conferences, they allowed 34 and 49 points. The Cougars offense really got clicking towards the end of the year. WSU scored 40 and 44 points in its final two games. The last time that they faced a team from outside the Pac 12, they won 44-24. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that the Cougars were listed as favorites. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. Thanks for coming out Rutgers. While the line may appear large, this is a mismatch. While it was a disappointing end, the Demon Deacons had a great season. They only lost three games. They were 2-0 SU/ATS after losing the first two. Off the loss to Pittsburgh, they're going to be looking to run up the score in this one. After the first loss, they bounced back to win and cover against NC State, scoring 45 points. After their second loss, the Deacons went on the road and hammered Boston College 41-10. Three of Rutgers' last four games resulted in losses of 24 or more points. While the Knights average 20.5 ppg, the Deacons average more than 41. While the Knights would love to show that they belong here, they don't. Expect a blowout. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With this game being played in Nashville, the Vols will have the edge in fan support. The Vols have a strong running game and they'll be licking their chops to go up against the relatively soft Purdue run defense. The Boilermakers are hurt by "opt outs" more than the Vols, as well as injuries. Tennessee lost a good one in Taylor but Purdue lost both Bell and Karlaftis, a pair of players which can't be replaced. Those are just two of many players that won't be available for the Boilers. The last time that the Vols played with more than a week's worth or rest, they scored 45 in a win against Kentucky. Over their last two games, the Vols scored more than 100 combined points. They're going to put up a big number again this afternoon and ultimately, Purdue won't be able to keep up. Expect a double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNC. The SEC has taken its lumps so far. I expect that to continue this morning. Sam Howell gives the Heels a significant edge at QB. He's a future NFL player. Prior to this season, he was being talked up as a top 5 pick, as well as a Heisman frontrunner. While his stock has fallen, he gets one final chance to remind everyone about how good he can be. It helps that he'll be up against a depleted South Carolina team. While the Heels have plenty of experience at the QB position, the Gamecocks do not. Their starting QB left and they'll be going with unproven Zeb Noland. South Carolina is an ugly 7-16 ATS as an underdog the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 1-8 ATS mark when listed as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect Howell and the Heels to pull away for the double-digit win. |
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12-29-21 | Maryland -160 v. Virginia Tech | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing MARYLAND on the ML. With the pointspread above three but the moneyline still at a relatively reasonable price, I'm electing to make a rare ML bowl play here. These former conference rivals will meet at Yankee Stadium. V-Tech has the longest streak (29) of years which it has been bowl eligible. That's quite an accomplishment. Maryland is favored for good reason though. QB Tagovailoa, younger brother of the Dolphins' QB, threw for 3595 yards this season while connecting for 24 TD passes. He's great at extending plays and gives the Terps an advantage on offense. It should be noted that the Hokies are missing a lot. Injuries, transfers, opt-outs. Their secondary wasn't that good to begin with. Maryland gets it done. |
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12-28-21 | Houston v. Auburn OVER 51 | 17-13 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Auburn OVER the total. Cougars vs. Tigers. This is the second lowest O/U line of today's five bowl games. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Tigers are without some players, who opted out. That won't prevent them from scoring though. They come in with a chip on their shoulder. The Tigers averaged 29.6 ppg, despite facing SEC defenses. Having just fired his offensive coordinator, and now taking over the Auburn play-calling, Bryan Harsin is obviously going to want his offense to make him look good. The Tigers are going to need to score, as the Cougars will surely be doing so. Houston averaged more 37 ppg. Like Auburn, the Cougars come in with a chip on their shoulder. Before being held to 20 points by Cincinnati, the Cougars had scored more than 30 points in eight straight games and at least 28, in 11 straight. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | 52-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEVADA. We're getting a lot of points to work. That's due in large part to the fact that the Wolfpack offense will be without its starting QB and top pass catching options. The fact that Nevada has an interim head coach is also factored in. Needless to say, those factors are all significant. That said, the Wolfpack still have several things going for them. QB Cox has been Strong's backup for a long time now (was last year, too) and will be comfortable. He knows this is his opportunity and he'll be facing a weak Western Michigan secondary. Cox also has a pair of decent running backs to hand the ball to. Its on the other side of the ball, however, where I feel that Nevada will have the real edge. The Wolfpack have the stronger defensive backs and their defensive line is outstanding. It's also worth noting that Nevada should enjoy a solid advantage in the special teams department. The Broncos really struggled in their punting game, both kicking and returning. Their field goal kicking wasn't good, either. Nevada began October with a 10-point win at Boise State. Since that time, the Pack have only lost three games. All three losses were less than field goal. Grab the points. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less. They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas OVER 54.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNT/Miami Ohio OVER the total. Kent State's game (52-38 final) against Wyoming reminded us how high-scoring these games with MAC teams can be. Speaking of Kent State, that's the team which Miami Ohio faced in its most recent game. That one finished with 95 points, a 48-47 final. Over its final six games, Miami scored 34, 24, 33, 45, 34 and 37. North Texas can also really put points on the board. The Mean Green scored 45 in their last game and 49 in their previous one. They've scored 20 or more in eight straight games, 30 or more in five of those. UNT is vulnerable to giving up big plays and Miami is capable of connecting on them. On the other side, the Redhawks are going to have real trouble slowing down the Mean Green. Expect another shootout. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army OVER 53 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Army/Missouri OVER the total. While the Knights stalled in the Navy game, they're now facing a less capable defense. I expect them to bounce back with a much better offensive showing this afternoon. Prior to scoring just 13 at Navy, Army had scored 31, 33 and 63 points, in its previous three games. The only other time this season that the Knights scored 14 or less was in their loss at Wisconsin. They bounced back and scored 56 their next time out. Unfortunately, for Army fans, they gave up 70 in the same game. The Tigers do not have a good defense. That's not just because they play in the SEC either. They gave up at least 23 points in every single game this season, an average of 34.7 ppg. The offense can score though. Despite their schedule including the likes of Georgia, the Tigers average 29.7 ppg. While it should be mentioned that Brady Cook will be Missouri's starting QB, I don't expect it to change what the Tigers do. The last time that the Knights were in the Armed Forces Bowl, they scored 70 points. Look for another relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kent State / Wyoming OVER the total. There should be plenty of points in this afternoon's bowl game. Seven of Kent State's last eight games finished with greater than 60 points. They scored 30 or more themselves in seven of those. Five of those finished with more than 84! Wyoming just gave up 38 points to Hawaii. So, the Flashes figure to have another big day. The Cowboys should too, however. They scored 44 or more points three different times this season. All three of those opponents, that they scored 44 or more against, were "bowl teams," too. They scored 44 against Utah State, 45 vs. Ball State and 50 vs. NIU. So, they should absolutely be able to put up another big number against a porus KSU defense which allowed an average of 35.1 ppp, 125th worst in the country. Kent State also gives up 467 ypg, 123rd worst. Expect plenty of fireworks. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa -9 v. Old Dominion | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 148 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULSA. These teams have identical 6-6 records. The points, for and against, are similar, too. However, the Golden Hurricane are laying more than a touchdown for good reason. Both teams closed the season by playing their best football. The Golden Hurricane won their final three games. The Monarchs won their final five. While the stats may be similar, its important to recognize that the Golden Hurricane played a far more difficult schedule. Tulsa's winning streak included a victory over SMU. Four of their six losses came against the likes of Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Houston. ODU didn't face anything remotely close to that. The Monarchs' three toughest opponents were Wake Forest, Liberty and WKU. Those games didn't go well for them. The Monarchs lost by scores of 42-10, 45-17 and 43-20. Regardless of how this game goes, it's still a successful season for the Monarchs. That's not the case for the Golden Hurricane. They need a win here. They're a veteran team with the more balanced offense and the superior defense. Expect a double-digit victory. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -4.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 109 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 103 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BYU. I respect the Blazers and they came through for me in a big way this season. That said, I don't feel that they're in the same class as the Cougars. The question, in some of these "lesser" bowl games, is whether or not the "bigger name" team is motivated or not. Indeed, the Cougars had been hoping for bigger things. In cases where they're not motivated, the team with inferior talent can sometimes surprise. In this case, with a chance to become the first BYU team in 15 years to have b2b 11-win seasons, I expect the Cougars to still have plenty of "hunger." Note that BYU just signed its coach (Kalani Sitake) to a longterm deal, where there had been rumors that he might leave. BYU QB Hall said this of how coach Sitake had his team fired up: "He has kept so much focus on this game because that is just the type of man he is. He invests everything he has in us as players and making sure he prepares us to play the best we can. Every day has been the same thing as we approach it as a team. It is just about focusing on this game and realizing it is the most important bowl game we have ever played because it is the one we have next. Kalani has been pumping energy into us and the other coaches have done a great job of continually harping on the importance of this next game. I think as players we are taking it and running with it. I think the energy will stay the same because that is how we have been talking about it over the course of the past couple weeks." BYU receiver Romney added: "Getting to 11 wins is huge. This has been one of the hardest schedules that BYU has ever played. We have played and won against the most Power Five teams in BYU history. Cementing our legacy would be awesome, and to get 11 wins would be an amazing thing. … It would be unheard of. I think it would be really cool to go out with a bang." I've done a good job of going on/against BYU. I won with the Cougars when they put up 66 points in their win over Virginia. I also won by going against them in their last game, when they won but didn't cover against USC. I say they come in with a chip on their shoulder and win by double-digits. |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -3 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APP STATE. Both offenses are excellent. However, they achieve their success in different ways. The Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball. The Mountaineers are going to run the ball. While both figure to move the ball effectively, I believe that Appalachian State's ability to control the clock, something which Western Kentucky is unable to do, will prove significant. OF course, the Mountaineers' superior defense will also be a factor. I backed the Mountaineers in last year's bowl win. Facing North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, they ran Appalachian State for 506 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13 yards per carry. Including that blowout, they're 5-1 ATS their last six neutral site games. The Mountaineers won't match those ridiculous numbers but the're still going to have some big ones. Keep in mind that WKU allowed more than 300 rushing yards to UTSA in its last game. UTSA had a 37 mins to 23 mins time of possession advantage, a familiar theme for WKU. I played against the Hilltoppers in that one and I believe that their inability to stop the run will be their downfall again. Lay the small number. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army OVER 34.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It's true. Historically, this has been a low-scoring series. We're working with a lower O/U line than any of the recent meetings though. The last 10 have all ranged between 36 and 55.5. This year, Army is very tough to stop. The Knights average 35.5 ppg. In fact, both offenses come in with momentum. While I'm not saying they will, either is capable of going over the very low number by itself. The Knights have scored 31, 33 and 63 their past three games. Meanwhile, Navy scored 38 and 35 in its last two games. Army games avg 58.3 points on the season. Navy games average 50. The 'under' streak comes to an end this afternoon. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan/Iowa UNDER the total. While both teams have been involved in a few relatively high-scoring games recently, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Both defenses are outstanding. They allow 17.3 and 17.2 ppg, respectively. That ranks each in the top 10 in the country. They're both top 15, in terms of yards allowed per game, too. The Hawkeyes, who were held to only seven points twice this season, figure to have some trouble scoring. The Wolverines allowed 27 points last game. However, that was against Ohio State. They held their three previous opponents to an average of just 14 points. On the season, they allowed 18 or fewer points in nine of 12 games. No team has scored more than 27 against Iowa all season long. These teams last met in 2019. The score was 10-3. Their previous meeting before that had a score of 14-13. With a heavy dose of the run, from both teams, helping to chew up the clock, expect another low-scoring affair. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -120 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. USC +7 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. Admittedly, the Trojans haven't looked too good recently. Now, they face a tough BYU team. Naturally, I respect the Cougars. They've been solid all season and they came through for me in a big way in a recent win over Virginia. Still, unlike USC, they've clinched their bowl berth. The Trojans need this win, not only to salvage some pride but also to keep their bowl hopes alive. That would get them to five wins with a game against Cal on deck. While it may seem unlikely, I'm not writing them off from winning both those games. The Trojans are still loaded with talent, as per usual. Since that home win over Virginia, the Cougars have hosted Idaho State and played at Georgia State. Those teams don't have the type of talent USC does. Prior to Georgia State, the Cougars previous road game came at Washington State and they lost. The week before that, they played on the road, at Baylor. They lost. Their three road wins came at Utah State, Georgia State and Arizona. None of those teams were strong and the Cougars were 1-2 ATS in the wins. The point that I'm trying to make is that BYU hasn't played many tough road games and it has lost when on the road against decent teams. They're 4-8 ATS their last 12 as road favorites. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay a lot of points against a talented, desperate opponent. I believe that's asking too much and I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. |
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11-27-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice UNDER 53 | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA Tech/RICE UNDER the total. Its been a disappointing season for both these teams. Each would like to close it out with a win. Both teams having been involved in some recent high-scoring games and both having been profitable 'over' teams on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by helping to provide a generously high total. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that both teams currently have serious issues on offense, starting at QB. I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their last game. They were favored by -15.5 points. Yet, they scored only 19 in total. That was a home game against one of the worst defenses in the league, a Southern Miss team which had given up more than 500 yards against North Texas, less than two weeks before. These teams didn't play last year but they did in both 2018 and 2019. Those games had O/U lines of 53 and 48.5. The final combined scores were 41 and 43. (In the 43-point game, nine points came in OT.) Look for this one to also prove to be lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Things sure fell apart for the Longhorns. They began the season by blowing out a solid LA Lafayette team. Through five games, they were 4-1 and averaging roughly 44 points per game. That included a 58-0 win and a 70-35 win over Texas Tech. With a 21-point lead in the Red River Rivalry Game, a 5-1 start looked imminent. Then, the wheels came off. The Sooners rallied for the biggest comeback in the history of the series and the Longhorns haven't won a single game since. This afternoon's game offers a chance to salvage some pride. I expect the Longhorns to make the most of it. K-State comes off a tough loss against Baylor. They managed only 10 points and 263 total yards. That was a game the Wildcats could have really used and it brings their positive momentum to an end. Note that Wildcats are 3-8 SU their last 11, when off a conference loss. They're also 0-4 ATS their last four, after passing for less than 170 yards in their previous game. The Longhorns have won four straight in the series. All four wins came by at least a field goal and last year's was a 69-31 blowout. Expect the Longhorns to show some pride and continue that series dominance on Black Friday. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 60.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER in the Egg Bowl. The Rebels have been on an 'under' streak. However, the Bulldogs have been on an 'over' streak. I expect the Bulldogs' streak to be the one which continues. The Bulldogs scored 55 themselves last week. True, that was against a weak opponent. However, the previous week they scored 43, at Auburn. They're averaging more than 40 ppg their last five. While the offense is potent, the Miss. State defense is nothing special. The Bulldogs have allowed 28 or more points six different times, allowing more than 30 each of their past two games against an SEC opponent. The Rebels can score, too. They've scored 27 or more in each of their past three games and 20 or more in every game this season. On the season, they're averaging 36.4 ppg. That's Top 20 in the country. Last year, when these teams met, the O/U line was 70.5. We're working with a considerably lower number here. Expect it to prove to be too low. |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 54 | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CSU/Hawaii OVER the total. These teams have a history of playing high-scoring games. Both teams will see this as a winnable game and a chance for their offense to "get healthy. I expect the high-scoring trend to continue this evening. Five meetings since 2012 have had O/U lines of 52, 58, 57.5, 64.5 and 58. None of them proved high enough. The games had final combined scores of 69, 63, 71, 72 and 78. The most recent was the 78 point game and the most recent here at Hawaii was the 72 game. The Rams have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. Including those results, the OVER is now 4-0 their last four in November. While the Warriors last two games finished below the total, their previous two both finished in the 80s. Neither defense is playing well. The Warriors gave up 465 yards last game The Rams defense has given up 986 total yards its last two games. With both teams essentially playing only for pride, there's no need to "play it safe." Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. |
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11-20-21 | UAB +6 v. UTSA | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 53.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/BC OVER the total. These teams had an O/U line of 64.5 when they last met. That wasn't enough as they combined for 69 points. Saturday's O/U is considerably lower. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Boston College offense came to life in a big way last week. The Eagles combined with Georgia Tech for 71 points, scoring 41 themselves. The Seminoles, meanwhile, combined with Miami for 59 points. Off that 31-28 win, they've now allowed a minimum of 28 points in three straight games. Note that the Noles have seen the OVER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were off a victory. Yet, its the Eagles which are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 11-2 the last 13 times that BC was listed as a home favorite. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss +15.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Needless to say, the Golden Eagles have had a disappointing season. They haven't won in a game since September. That said, this game provides hope as the LA Tech defense is terrible. The Bulldogs give up 33.8 ppg and 448.9 ypg. They've won three games but none of those wins came by more than 10 points. They're 1-4 ATS their last five as favorites. They ultimately lost by 10. However, the Golden Eagles were tied with UTSA, a team which now has a 10-0 record, entering the fourth quarter of last week's game. A closer look reveals that USM had a dominating 37.14 to 22.46 edge in time of possession. While the Bulldogs are off a win and cover, they're 0-4 ATS their last four, when off an ATS victory. Last year's game was decided by a single point (31-30 LT) and the past five meetings have all been decided by 15 or less. The underdog is 5-1 ATS the last six in the series. Grab the points and look for this one to prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas A&M and Ole Miss OVER the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 62 or greater. A look at this season's Ole Miss games shows that the lowest O/U line was 66.5. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number Saturday and I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While the Aggies got into a low scoring game vs. Auburn last week, they'd scored 44, 35 and 41 points in their previous three. These teams combined for 745 yards of offense last season after compiling 944 the previous year. The previous year they had 782 yards and the year before that they combined for 832. Expect both teams to have success moving the football, the final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. |
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11-13-21 | Stanford +13 v. Oregon State | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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11-13-21 | Boston College v. Georgia Tech OVER 53 | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 97 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BC/GT OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and finished with 75 points. The Eagles scored of those. I expect them to have another big day on offense. Boston College has faced some fairly stingy defenses recently. This isn't one of them. In their last five games, the Jackets have allowed 52, 27, 48, 26 and 33 points. Georgia Tech can score though. The Jackets have scored 30 or more in three of their past four and they've scored 40 or more three times this season. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that GT played in November and I expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers are 2-7 and haven't won in weeks. Yet, they're favored over a 4-5 Rutgers team which is still hoping to become bowl eligible. That may make the underdog seem appealing. However, Indiana is favored for good reason. The Knights are an even bigger mess than Indiana, physically and mentally. Last week, they were hammered by a score of 52-3. Don't expect the Hoosiers to feel sorry for them. They're a team which has been also been beaten up and they know that this is their chance to salvage some pride. The Hoosiers have thrived in this role over the years, as they're 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In fact, the Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS their last nine as a home favorite overall. They won by 16, at Rutgers, last season. The previous season, the Hoosiers won 35-0. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 in November. |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -130 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Huskies dominated the Cardinals from 2012 - 2018. They won (and covered) seven straight meetings. However, things chanced in 2019. The Cardinals have now beaten the Huskies each of the past two seasons. I expect them to make it three in a row this evening. Ball State has the better defense in this game. The Cardinals allow 27.6 ppg. The Huskies allow 33.8. While the defensive passing stats are similar, Ball State is better at stopping the run. The Cardinals allow teams to gain 154 rushing yards per game. NIU allows more than 200. The Huskies are off a tough loss. The Cardinals, who have had an extra day of rest, are off a victory. They've won four of their last five and are 3-0 on the road, during that stretch. Expect them to keep on rolling for another day. |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. |
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11-06-21 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 46 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Clemson/Louisville OVER the total. This is a relatively low O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. I felt fortunate to cash my 'over' ticket in last week's Clemson game. If you saw the final play, you'll know what I'm talking about. Still, Clemson was moving the ball. I expect the Tigers to have success against a Cardinal defense which gave up 28 points last week and which has allowed 34 or more points four times. Consider that the last four meetings between these teams all had O/U lines in the 60s. Now, we've got one in the 40s. Those four games had combined scores of 78, 68, 93 and 55. All four of those games would have finished above this evening's low number. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Cardinals were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve. |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. The Monarchs are off an upset win. The Panthers are off a blowout loss. Yet, the Panthers match up well against this team. I see them scoring the upset and earning their first FBS victory since 2019. Last week was the low point, rock bottom. That was on the road though and ODU isn't nearly the team that Marshall is. The Monarchs are 0-10 on the road the past few seasons. Yet, they're laying points here. Off a rare conference win, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Penn State v. Maryland +10.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. |
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11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are on an ugly 4-game slide. However, I expect them to right the ship this afternoon. I believe that the Cowboys are catching the Rams, who have lost b2b games of their own, at the right time. While they ultimately came up short, the Cowboys' offense, including the ground game, was solid at San Jose State last week. They ran for 272 yards and had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. A similar formula will serve them well this afternoon. While they lost at CSU last season, the Cowboys are still 4-1 ATS the past five meetings. They won by 10 here in 2019. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Flames only previous game against an SEC opponent resulted in a 53-0 loss. This one won't be nearly as lopsided. However, in the end, I expect another double-digit victory for the SEC team. While Liberty has a strong team again this season, this is also a very talented Rebels team. Ole Miss has only lost twice. Both losses were on the road. Both came in the state of Alabama. The Rebels have beaten the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU. They're 5-0 here and four of the victories were by 14 or more points. Despite having played a very weak schedule, the Flames already have a loss. They lost outright as 32 point favorite. Favored by more than 20 points in each of their last four games and with UAB being their toughest opponent, the Flames haven't faced anything near the type of talent they'll see here. The Rebels have thrived as favorites. Expect them to pull away for a convinving victory. |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -130 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNC. Needless to say, the undefeated Deacons are having a great season. The Tar Heels are favored for a reason though. I expect them to hand their guests their first loss. Note that the home team has dominated in recent meetings. Forget all the talk about this being a non-conference game. UNC needs a win and is highly motivated to spoil Wake's undefeated year. A win here will right a lot of wrongs. Wake won by six, while playing at home, in 2019. However, UNC won by six here last season. Expect more of the same this afternoon, as the Heels put it all together with their most complete game of the season. |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on VTech/BC OVER the total. These teams combined for 54 points last year. The O/U line was 62. In 2018 and 2019, the games between these teams also both produced greater than 50 points. They had combined scores of 52 at VT and 63, here at Boston College. Those O/U lines were 56.5 and 57. Tonight, we're working with a considerably lower O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Admittedly, the Boston College offense has struggled. That's a big reason why we've got the low O/U number. There's more talent here than those recent numbers suggest. They struggled against NC State in their last game here but in their previous home game, the Eagles dropped 41 points on Missouri. That was one of three games this season where BC has scored more than 40. An ESPN home game provides the opportunity for the offense to show the world that it can still move the ball. I expect the players to seize that opportunity. Remember, VT has allowed 28 or more points in three of its past four, including 41 to Syracuse. Stopping the Hokies may be a different matter though. The Eagles have allowed 28 or more points four different times this season. Look for both teams to have some success on offense and for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that The Hokies were road favorites. |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 67 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -121 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/WMU UNDER the total. We were reminded last night that these MAC games can get high-scoring. We're working with a very high O/U line for this one though. In fact, I looked at the O/U lines from that past 10 meetings between these teams and this one is considerably higher than any of them. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Broncos managed just 15 points against Toledo last time out, a 34-15 loss. That same Toledo team, which limited WMU, just gave up 52 points (to EMU) last night. The Broncos have now scored 28 or less in seven of their eight games, 24 or less in six of those. The Chippewas are off a very high-scoring game last time out. However, their previous three games had all finished below the total and their previous four games all finished with 58 or fewer combined points. Note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they threw for 280 or more yards in their previous game. While last year's game at Central Michigan was high-scoring, the last one here at Western Michigan was not. Including that 45-point game, four of the past five meetings finished with fewer than 64 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Eastern Michigan/Toledo OVER the total. These teams combined for 73 points last season. The previous year, they combined for 71 points. (Nine came in OT.) I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair Tuesday. Toledo has been on an 'under' streak. However, the Rockets scored 34 against an arguably much stingier team (Eastern Michigan allows 393.3 ypg, Western Michigan allows 320.8 ypg) last game and they should put up at least that many once again. They may need more than that though, as the Eagles just scored 55 (themselves) in their last game. That 55-24 road win was the heels of a 38-31 loss. Note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Eagles were off a pointspread victory. The OVER is also 6-1 the last seven meetings in Toledo. Look for this one to prove higher-scoing than many will be expecting. |
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10-30-21 | Virginia v. BYU -132 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing BYU on the moneyline. Of course, I expect the Cougars to cover here. However, when able to get the moneyline at such a resonable price, removing the risk of failing to cover in a one or two point win, this is the way to go. Virginia comes in on a roll, the reason we're able to get BYU at such a reasonable price. This is no easy place to play though and the Cougars are battle-tested. They beat a good Arizona State team here by double-digits. I really like what I saw from them in last week's win at Washington State, too. They played stingy defense and ran for a season high 238 yards. While the Cavs have been great on offense recently, the BYU defense is well-designed to slow them down. Of course, there's the Bronco Mendenhall factor. He obviously wants to beat his former team. The Cougars want to beat him just as badly though. The Cavs haven't won five in a row in more than a decade. Cougars rise to the occasion and get the "W." |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FSU/Clemson OVER the total. The Tigers have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. That's helped in keeping this O/U line relatively low. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles scored 59 points (themselves) last week. They've scored 33 or more in each of their past three games. Yet, it's Clemson which is favored by more than a TD. If the Noles are scoring, that means that the Tigers are going to need to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete and win. Considering that the Noles have allowed 20 or more in six of seven games and 30 or more in four of those, I feel that the Tigers absolutely will be able to "put up a big number." The Tigers scored 45 and 59 points (themselves) the last two meetings in the series. With the Noles off a 59-point effort, note that the OVER is 4-0 the past four times that FSU had scored 40 or more points in its previous game. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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10-30-21 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -20.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 115 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. This is a major mismatch and I'm expecting a blowout. These teams have met eight times. The Cajuns won all eight of those games and they covered seven of them. They outgained the Bobcats by an average of 506-304 yards in those games, too. The talent gap is arguably bigger than ever. I like that the Cajuns eked out a victory in their last game. It was their third win of three points or less already. After each of the previous two "close wins," they responded by blowing out their next opponent. The scores were 49-14 vs. Ohio and 41-13 vs. App. State. Remember, Texas State gave up 42 points in a loss to "Incarnate Word," an FCS school and was also blown out 59-21 at Eastern Michigan. Not that they need any extra advantages, but the Cajuns have also had a couple extra days in between games. Expect this score to get ugly. |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. |
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10-23-21 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 45 | Top | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Carolina/Texas A&M OVER the total. This is a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Aggies have hit their stride on offense. They have the potential to go over this total by themselves. (They scored 48 themselves at South Carolina LY.) In their last two games, they scored 41 (against Alabama!) and 35 at Missouri. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have given up 40 and 45 in their last two road games. While the Aggies will put up a big number, the Gamecocks should also contribute. They've hit double-digits in every game, including 13 at Georgia and they're averaging 21.9 ppg on the season. Last season's game had an O/U line of 58. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here which is providing excellent value. With the OVER a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Gamecocks were road underdogs, all six of those games producing a minimum of 53 points, look for this one to prove higher scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-23-21 | Colorado +8.5 v. California | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Bears are laying more than a touchdown. For a team which is just 1-5, I believe that's asking a lot. Cal is just 2-9-1 ATS its last 12 games here. The Buffaloes have won three of the past five meetings. One of Cal's victories, over that 10-year stretch, came by a field goal. To put that another way, the Bears have only beaten the Buffaloes by more than a field goal (they won by 12) once in the past decade. The Bears battled hard against the Ducks last time out but came up short. That would have been a big win for them but to come up short figures to be demoralizing. On the other hand, the Buffaloes have some positive momentum, as they're off a 24-0 shutout victory. Expect this to be a close game and grab the generous points. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Purdue | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Boilermakers are off a big win over Iowa but I don't expect them to be able to duplicate that feat against Wisconsin. After a slow start, the Badgers have found their form. The defense is stingy, as per usual. Some recent low scores notwithstanding, this also a very talented Badger offense. The Badgers have beaten Purdue 14 straight times. Every one of those victories came by at least a field goal, too. Note that Purdue is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. While the Boilermakers are improved, this isn't the year that they snap the series losing streak. Badgers win again and cover the small number along the way. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Purdue OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. In fact, I looked back at the last 18 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1998. This is the by far the lowest O/U number of any of them. While I respect the defenses, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The last time (Nov. 2019) that these teams met, they combined for 69 points. The last time they met here (Nov 2018) at Purdue, they combined for 91 points. Needless to say, both games finished above the total. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | 41-36 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VT. The Orange have endured three straight 3-point defeats. Those type of demoralizing losses eventually catch up to a team. I expect that to be the case here. The early start time and the boisterous Hokie home crowd won't make things any easier for the Orange. Note that Orange may have fared well as underdogs recently but they're still just 1-5 ATS the past six times they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. Off b2b losses of their own and with b2b road games on deck, the Hokies can't afford to squander this opportunity. Remember, this is a VT team which defeated UNC. The Hokies are better than their record suggests. Expect them to bounce back with an important victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest -155 v. Army | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 111 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing WF on the ML. I won with them when they routed Virginia and I expect the Deacons to cover the spread again on Saturday afternoon. Including that blowout win, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 SU. However, they're only 2-3-1 ATS and their last two games were both decided by a field goal. Likewise, Army covered but lost last time out, a 6-point setback at Wisconsin. Four of the Knights' last five games were decided by less than two touchdowns, one of those by only a field goal. That said, with another close game being a real possibility, I'm happy to lay the relatively short price to just have to win the game without worrying about covering any points. It can be difficult to prepare for Army. However, in this case, the Deacons benefit from having had last week off. While Wake Forest was resting and preparing, the Knights left it all on the field at Madison. Wake Forest is 8-10-2 ATS its past 20 as a favorite but 15-5 SU in the same games. Expect the undefeated record to remain in tact. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 121 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. The Tigers come in with the better record but the Knights are favored for good reason. While the Knights have lost three games, all three of those losses came on the road. While they would have liked to have won at Navy and Louisville, those were both very close losses. Also, there's no shame in losing at Cincinnati. At home, the Knights are 3-0, including a victory over Boise State. The Tigers have also struggled on the road. They've lost their last two road games; their only road win came at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves aren't good, yet the Tigers only won by five and they gave up 50 points. Going back further finds Memphis at 4-9 ATS its last 13 road games. While the Knights have had trouble covering larger spreads, this line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. That said, the Knights are 5-1 SU their last six off a conference loss and 11-2 SU their last 13 at home. Speaking of "homefield dominance," the Knights are 7-0 ATS their last seven as a host in this series. All seven wins came by at least a TD. Look for the Knights to continue their success here, avenging a tough loss at Memphis last year. |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State -180 v. UNLV | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing SJSU on the moneyline. The line has come down on the Spartans and that has led to the ML price also dropping. I believe that's providing us with very fair value. There's still a considerable gap between these teams, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Spartans were laying -16 when they faced UNLV last year. They won by 17. Most of those SJSU players returned. Yes, the venue has now changed. The Rebels have been terrible at home for years though and they're just 2-10 SU their last 12 here. While the Spartans are only 1-2 ATS as favorites, they're 3-0 SU in those games. Going back a bit further finds them at 9-2 SU their last 11, when laying points. Going back still further finds the Spartans at 30-11 SU their last 41, when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. While they've come close a couple of times, the Rebels have yet to win a game this season. Remember, they were 0-6 last year, too. I don't see that elusive victory happening tonight. Spartans win. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force v. Boise State -162 | 24-17 | Loss | -162 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing BOISE on the ML. The Falcons are playing well. However, this is a very tough place to play. Also, Air Force's schedule has been soft. Off a win at BYU, the Broncos are coming in full of confidence. The Broncos are 17-4 SU the past 21 times that they were listed as favorites. They're far more "battle-tested" than the Falcons and that will serve them well today. Boise won last year's meeting by a score of 49-30. That's four straight double-digit wins in the series. This one may be closer but the result, a Boise "W," will be the same. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -124 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. (ML) While I respect the Bruins, I believe that the Huskies are better than many realize and I really like how this game sets up for them. While the season hasn't started the way that the Huskies had hoped, this is an experienced and talented Washington team. Last week's bye has given them a chance to regroup. The season isn't lost yet. Remember, the Huskies have won their last two at home. They beat Cal here last game and they hammered Arkansas State (52-3) in their previous game here. While the Huskies have had extra rest and preparation, the Bruins are playing their second straight road game. Washington, 4-1 the past five times it was off a conf. loss, has won the past two meetings with UCLA. I expect another victory this evening. |
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10-16-21 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 64 | Top | 31-64 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +4.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +10 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ SJTATE. Naturally, I respect the Aztecs. This is a big number though and its risen from its opener. I believe we're getting excellent value with an under-rated and under-valued Spartans side. The Spartans have struggled on the road but they have yet to lose at home. The Spartans have played the Aztecs tough. They lost by three in 2018 and by 10 in 2019. Then, last year, they beat the Aztecs outright. That 28-17 victory will provide them with the confidence to know they can complete in this game. Note that they held SDSU to a season low 2.2 ypc in that game. Even off last week's loss, the Spartans are still 10-5 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Expect them to bounce back by giving their guests all that they can handle. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points |
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10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 51 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tide have been putting up big offensive numbers, week after week. This is still a relatively young offense though and now they're on the road against arguably the most talented defense which they've faced. Of course, the Tide are still going to score. However, I don't expect them to score as easily, or as many points, as they've been doing. The Alabama defense is considerably more experienced than its offense and has already held three teams to 14 or fewer points. In other words, the Aggies, who have already scored 10 points twice themselves, figure to have a difficult time scoring. Winning this game won't be easy for the Aggies, obviously. That said, they've got a talented defensive front and and offensive line that appears to be coming around. They're going to be doing everything they can to chew up the clock and keep the Tide offense off the field. In the end, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the Aggies' last six games. |
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10-09-21 | Buffalo v. Kent State -5 | Top | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | Florida Atlantic v. UAB -180 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing UAB on the ML. The Blazeres are off a disappointing loss to Liberty. That was on the heels of four straight road games though; the only one they lost was at Georgia. This is a talented team which will absolutely not want to lose two in a row in their new home stadium. The Owls are 0-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 66-21 margin. They'll face a UAB team which has still won nine of its last 11 here. Note that the Blazers are 10-2 SU the past 12 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range, a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range overall. Blazers have dominated teams from within their conference here at home and they've got a score to settle with the Owls from the 2019 CUSA title game. Expect them to finish on top. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State +3 v. Colorado State | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ STATE. This line opened closer to pick but has climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us excellent value with the visitors. The Spartans are the reigning MWC champs. They were 7-1 last year and they're 3-2 this year. Remember, they brought back 19 starters from last year's team and are arguably even stronger. The Rams, on the other hand, were 1-3 last year and have just one win so far this year. While I do believe the Rams are better than that record suggests and improved from last year, I still feel that this is a tough matchup for them. Note that the Rams have a couple of key players who are banged-up. Also, note that road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in the series. I say the Spartans improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday afternoon. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Both teams got thumped on the road last weekend. Ole Miss lost 42-21, at Alabama. Arkansas' loss was worse. The Razorbacks lost 37-0, at Georgia. I believe that the Rebels are the superior team. Playing at home, I expect them to be the team which bounces back from last week's loss. I also ike the fact that the game got moved to the morning slot; this is the third straight game that the Razorbacks have played away from home. (Prior to the game at Georgia, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) The home team is 4-1 ATS the past five in this series. The Razorbacks won by 12 at Arkansas last season. The Rebels won by 14 here the previous year. The Rebels won 61-21 the last time that they were a home favorite. I'm expecting another double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | Akron +14.5 v. Bowling Green | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. I don' think that there's much separating these teams, in terms of talent. Consider that Akron won 31-3 when these teams met last year. That result will provide the Zips, who brought back 18 starters from that team, with confidence for this one. While the early results haven't been there, this team is stronger than last year. Games at Auburn and Ohio State didn't help the stats but should serve the Zips well here. Meanwhile, Bowling Green brought back only 11 starters. Sure, Bowling Green has a couple of wins. One was by four points though. Now, this relatively inexperienced team is laying points for the first time since 2019. Note that the Falcons are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Charlotte v. Florida International +4 | Top | 45-33 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. This line has gone up and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Green Wave have played some really tough opponents. September's schedule included Oklahoma, Ole Miss and UAB. Then, they started October on the road. Obviously, Houston is another talented opponent. Still, the Green Wave are at home and I believe that they're going to be bringing their best effort. Note that Houston is 4-11-1 ATS its past 16 as a road favorite of -3.5 to -7 points. (Nine of those were outright losses.) Also, recall that Tulane very nearly beat the Sooners. The Green Wave, who have an experienced offense, traded punches with the Cougars for a half, at Houston, last year. In fact, Tulane had a 24-21 lead at halftime. Playing at home, Houston pulled away in the second half. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS their last 11 lined home games though. This is a very big game for them. They're "battle tested" and I expect them to give their guests all they can handle. Grab the points. |
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10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +10.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State OVER 51.5 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ State and New Mexico State to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the Spartans to finish 'over' the total in their very first game of the season, back in late August. They scored 45 points for me that day, nearly going over the total themselves. Since that time, however, they've seen their next three games all stay below the number. Those results have absolutely worked in our favor, as they've kept this O/U number lower than it easily could have been. Note that all three of those were on the road. Now, they take a big step down in class, while also returning home. I expect them to put up a very big number. Indeed, the Aggies are not a good defensive team. Since giving up 30 and 28 points in their first two games, they've gotten worse. Over their last three games, they've given up 34, 35 and 41 points. The Aggies did manage to score 25, 43 and 21 themselves in those games. All three finished with greater than 58 points. The teams have met three times since 2010. All three of those games finished above the number. Look for this one to do the same. |
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10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State -26 | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Spartans are a much better team than they've shown. Their problem is that their last three games have come on the road. Their next is also on the road, before they have a big game here against San Diego State here in the middle of the month. That being the case, they're going to want to build confidence with a one-sided blowout. They're stronger on both sides of the ball and I fully expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Note that the line has come down from its opener, providing some additional value. These teams used to play in the same conference; the last meeting was a 47-7 destruction, the Spartans outgaining the Aggies by a 504-220 margin. While that was a number of years ago, we can expect another lopsided result tonight. |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -200 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing FSU on the ML. Syracuse is 3-1 while FSU is 0-4. Yet, the Seminoles are favored for good reason. The Noles, who played well enough to win last week, have faced a much tougher schedule. Three of their games have been against quality opponents. The Orange are just 5-17 SU the past 22 times that they were underdogs. They're also 0-7 SU in October, during that span. With a road game at UNC on deck, the Noles are absolutely coming in desperate. They're 6-0 SU all-time when hosting Syracuse. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State OVER 51 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/Syracuse OVER the total. When these teams met last (2019) the O/U line was 60. The previous year, their game had an O/U line of 69. We're working with a much lower number this week. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles had no problem moving the ball last week, as they racked up more than 450 yards against Louisville. Really, they could have easily scored more than they did. The problem was that they allowed more than 30 points for the second straight week. Dating back to last year, the Noles have allowed seven of their past eight opponents to score more than 30 points. The only one that didn't was 1-AA Jacksonville State. Syracuse is off a relatively low-scoring (45 points) game vs. Liberty. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring; the points dried up late. In their previous game, the Orange scored 62 points, all by themselves. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have produced more than 50 combined points. Expect this one to do the same. |
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10-02-21 | USC -7.5 v. Colorado | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans didn't play well last week. They're still a talented team though and they're going to be in an angry mood for this one. I expect them to take out their anger on an outmatched Colorado team. The Buffaloes have really struggled. After beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team, they only scored seven points against Texas A&M. Next, they lost 30-0 to Minnesota. (That looks even worse after the Gophers went on to lose as 30-point favorites against Bowling Green.) Then, last week, Colorado lost 35-13 against Arizona State. Those are all fairly tough opponents, but so is USC. Note that The Buffaloes are now 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. They've dominated the Buffaloes for years and that continues Saturday afternoon. |
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10-02-21 | Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Tigers are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home. Both wins came by double-digits. The Vols lost their only road game by 24 points. Of course, those results are largely based on the opponents that these teams were facing. Still, homefield figures to prove significant. The Tigers have won 11 of 15 here the past few seasons. The Vols are 4-6 on the road, during the same span. Note that this is the only time all season that the Vols will play two road games in two weeks. I believe that the beating put on them by the Gators will take a toll in this early road game. Note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS the past six in the series. Also, note that Tennessee is just 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) its last seven as an underdog. The Vols won at Tennessee last year. However, the Tigers brought back considerably more from last year than did the Vols. Expect them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland OVER 45.5 | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 104 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Maryland OVER the total. While both teams have played well defensively, this is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both offenses have plenty of weapons; each offense brought back a lot from last year. The Hawkeyes have scored 34, 27, 30 and 24 points. That's been enough as their opponents haven't been able to keep up. Keep in mind that they were favored by more than three TD's in each of their last two games though. Now, they face the most capable team they've faced since upsetting instate rival Iowa State. I believe that the Terps will put up a big enough number that the Hawkeyes are going to need to score more than they've had to. Keep in mind that Maryland has scored 30, 62 and 67 in its three home games. When Iowa visited here in 2014, the O/U line was 45.5. The teams combined for 69 points. Look for history to repeat itself, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 44.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 101 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/ASU OVER the total. This is a very low total. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that last year's game had an O/U line of 49 and finished with 65 combined points. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings between these teams produced a minimum of 47 combined points. None of those games had an O/U line this low. That leads one to question WHY this O/U line is so low. That's, in large part, due to Colorado's offensive futility. While its true that the Buffaloes have indeed struggled to score, that's not going to continue. It helps that the Colorado offense won't have to contend with ASU's defensive end Travis Moore, who got hurt in the BYU game. That's the second defensive lineman that the Sun Devils have lost. ASU's offense has no problems though. Already averaging 31.7 ppg, the Sun Devils now get back running back Chip Trayanum (as well as return specialist D.J. Taylor.) Four of the last five meetings here have finished above the number. Additionally, the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that the Buffaloes were listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. |
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09-25-21 | California v. Washington -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. |
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09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +1 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU. I like the Seminoles to score the minor upset this afternoon. With an 0-3 record for the first time since 1976, everyone is pretty down on the Noles at the moment. Yes, losing to Jacksonville State is pretty sad. However, "letdowns" do happen to college teams and the Noles had just left it all on the field in a heartbreaking loss against Notre Dame. Last game, the Noles were beaten up on the road against Wake Forest. As we saw last night, however, the Deacons have a strong team this season. So, the losses against Notre Dame and at Wake Forest weren't unexpected. And the loss against Jacksonville State, though inexcusable, still "made sense." Keep in mind that FSU brought back 17 players from last year's team and that their coach is in his second year here. One of last year's worst losses came at the hands of these same Cardinals, at Louisville. Unlike the Noles, the Cardinals lost quite a lot from last year's team. They got pounded in their lone road game; they're just 2-8 their last 10 on the road. I say the Noles dig deep, get some payback from last year, and avoid the dreaded 0-4 start. |
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09-25-21 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 49 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Army/Miami Ohio UNDER the total. The Knights have seen all three of their games finish above the total thus far. I expect that to change Saturday afternoon. Miami allowed just seven points last game, a 42-7 win. As per usual, Army is going to run the ball. The Redhawks won't be able to stop the Knights ground game but their veteran linebackers will make things more difficult than Army's first few opponents. The Redhawks, who know full well what to expect Army to bring to the table, are among the leaders in their conference at making tackles for losses. Note that the UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Redhawks were off a SU victory. I see those stats improving here. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |