I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. With the home team boasting a 4-0 SU/ATS record so far, it would be easy to make a case for the Suns. I'm not trying to make an easy case though. I just want to win and I feel that the value lies with the road team. Here are some reasons why. The Suns squandered a golden opportunity in Game 4. That one was theirs for the taking. Booker had a huge game and Giannis did not. Yet, the Bucks still found a way to get the win and cover. Having to win when Giannis was either out of the lineup entirely, or when he's not having a dominant game, has helped the Bucks. They've learned that they can win without him. Middleton has shown that he can be the guy and the Bucks confidence has grown as a result. I also like that they play with two day's rest in between games again. Giannis will benefit from the extra day. Note that the Bucks are now 12-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Suns are just 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. While the finals may be new for them, the Bucks have paid their dues in recent seasons. They've been tied in a series a lot more times than the Suns have the past few years and I believe that their playoff experience will serve them well in this critical game. While I like Milwaukee's chances of an outright win, I could also see this one being decided right at the buzzer. Grab the points and look for the Bucks to move to 6-2 ATS their last eight, when tied in a playoff series. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks showed that they were far from done on Sunday. Off that convincing win, their confidence restored, I expect them to "bring their best" once again on Wednesday. Its been my feeling that the Bucks play a lot better, after they know they can beat a team. Prior to Sunday, they'd lost every game this season to Phoenix. Now, however, the Bucks know they can beat this team. I mentioned that the loss of Saric hurt the Suns' depth. The Bucks also now have a blueprint for success - get Ayton in foul trouble. The Bucks are now 8-1 in their home playoff games. The last five of those wins came by 11, 15, 34, 11 and 20 points, all double-digit wins.The Bucks know that they're still essentially in "must win" territory. They can't afford to go down 3-1. Expect them to dig deep and come away with another critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Down 0-2, obviously, the Bucks desperately need this one. As impressive as the Suns have been, I'm not writing off Milwaukee yet. Antetokounmpo had this to say: "I think no matter what we say, we know what the deal is. It's as simple as that. We've got to go back home and do our job. They did their job. We've got to do our job. We've been here before and we were able to get the job done. Hopefully we can put ourselves in position and we can believe in one another and we can play together and we can have fun. We can compete and we can dive on the floor, we can make shots, put ourselves in a position to win the game. But, like, we know what the deal is, man. We got to go back home and protect home." The Suns lost some depth last game, as Saric is out for the series. Also, Torrey Craig went down and is questionable. The Bucks are 7-1 their last eight home playoff games. The last four of those wins came by 11, 15, 34 and 11 points, all double-digit wins. Expect them to dig deep and come away the critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Hawks have enjoyed a great run but I believe it comes to an end tonight. As of this writing, Young is questionable while Giannis is doubtful. While this may not prove to be the case, my guess that Young plays and Giannis doesn't. Young may not be 100% if he does play though and the Bucks have also shown that they can still be a strong team without Giannis. Last game was one of their best. Also, recall their lone win against the Heat last year. That was the game Giannis got hurt. He'd play only 11 minutes or so. Yet, Middleton stepped up and scored 36 and Milwaukee did something it hadn't been able to do when it's star was on the floor. Note that they're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14, when leading in a playoff series and that the Bucks smell the blood in the water tonight. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, knowing a date with Phoenix awaits, I see the Bucks improving on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA for the first half. Both games in Milwaukee saw the Bucks take the lead into the locker-room. In the opening game, the Bucks were up 59-54 at the break. Atlanta came back to win 116-113. Last game, the Bucks jumped all over the Hawks and were up 77-45 by halftime. Off that beating and now back home for the first time in the series, I expect a much stronger start from Trae Young and the Hawks. The last time that the Hawks were off a loss, they responded by winning the first half (at Philadelphia on 6/20) by a score of 48-46. In the NY series, the Hawks won the first game and lost the second. For Game 3, they returned home and were up big (58-44) by halftime. In the Philly series, the Hawks won Game 1 and lost Game 2. They ended up getting blown out when they returned home for Game 3. However, they were still close at halftime. Lets not forget that the Hawks' home record is better than the Bucks' road record. Trae Young noted: "...I've got to do better, and I will do better next game." The Atlanta star added: "It's exciting being able to go back home. We wanted to steal one on the road. We did that. So now (we get) to go home and play in front of our fans in the Eastern Conference Finals. It's going to be loud. It's going to be a lot of people there. It's going to be fun. I'm looking forward to just going out there and having fun and playing in front of all our Atlanta fans." Energized by the home crowd, expect the Hawks to come out firing, en route to their best "first half" of the series.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting upset in the opener, the Bucks are essentially in must-win mode. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. The last time that the Bucks lost, they responded with a 15-point win in their next game. They're 47-15 SU and 38-24 ATS their past 62, when off an upset loss. The Hawks are 2-3 ATS when leading a playoff series, 11-21 ATS in that situation over the years. After they won Game 1 at MGS, they lost Game 2 by nine. After they stole Game 1 at Philadelphia, they lost Game 2 by 16. Look for the Bucks to be all business in this one, evening the series and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Hawks had their chance and they squandered it. Tonight, I expect the 76ers to show why they were the top seed. This is what they worked so hard for all year. So, that they can play these games at home. Trae Young (probable) has been ridiculous throughout the playoffs. Still, its ultimately a team game and he's up against a superior team. Note that he'll be playing with a sore shoulder, too. While I'm certain Young will play, Bogdanovic is questionable. If he can't play, or is less than 100%, that's a big blow. Remember, Reddish (and Hunter) remains out. The  76ers are 38-27-1 ATS (58.4%) as favorites. I see them pulling away for a double-digit win, improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they played when a series was tied. 

I'm playing on LA. After dropping the first two games against Dallas, Kawhi and the Clippers responded with a convincing win in Game 3. Down 0-2 and desperate for a victory, I expect another Game 3 win and cover against Utah. While the Jazz were 23-15 on the road, the Clippers were 27-13 at home. That includes a 16-9-1 ATS (19-7 SU) mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Clippers are still 6-3 ATS their last nine, when trailing in a playoff series. They've been here before and there will be no panic. Last time on this floor, the Clippers won 126-111. Don't count them out yet. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Nets made it look easy in Game 2. The 125-86 beating they put on the Bucks was embarrassing. I'm not ready to just hand them the series though and I don't believe that the Bucks are either. Remember, the Nets were 21-17 on the road while the Bucks were 28-10 at home. The Nets outscored teams by 2.7 points on the road; the Bucks outscored visiting teams by 8.3 points. The home team won all three games in the regular season. The most recent one here saw the Bucks win by seven. Harden remains out. Jeff Green is also out. Note that the Nets were 0-2 ATS this season, after allowing less than 90 points. The last time it happed, they lost outright against the Bulls their next game. The Bucks are 22-8 SU and 18-11-1 ATS the past 30 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Even if they can't come back to win the series, this is their game. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Trae Young and the Hawks have been great in these playoffs. Tonight, however, they're walking into a hornet's nest. The 76'ers have paid their dues the past few years and they feel that this is their time. They earned the #1 seed by playing hard all season. While the Clippers pulled it off against the Mavs, the 76ers absolutely do not want to have to come back from an 0-2 hole, after dropping the first two at home. They're 9-2-1 ATS when off an upset loss and they'll be bringing all they've got tonight. Note that the Hawks are just 6-9 SU/ATS their last 15 when coming off an upset. While Atlanta has shown that it won't be an easy series, I say Philly pulls away and wins this one by double-digits.

I'm playing on LA. As you're likely aware, the road team has won all six games in this series. That's the first time that has ever happened. I say this will NOT be the first time that the road team wins all seven games. The Mavs had their chance to close the deal on Friday and they failed to do so. Kawhi elevated his game and the Clippers elevated their team defense. I believe that they've seized the momentum and I expect to see more of the same in Game 7. In Game 6, LA had its worst 3-point shooting percentage since Game 1. Yet, because of the extra intensity on defense, still found a way. While homecourt may not have meant anything so far, I'd still rather be playing Game 7 at home. So, would the Clippers, who have been tough here all year. Look for Kawhi and co. to dig deep and get it done, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. The Bucks have stumbled in the playoffs in recent years and were upset by the Heat last season. This year, they looked to again be in some trouble in Game 1 against the Heat. However, they weathered the storm and won that game. That seemed to take some of the pressure off, as they dominated the rest of the series. While the Nets are obviously loaded, the Bucks are a tough matchup for them. Milwaukee already won both meetings in May. Also, note that the Nets' last two wins against the Bucks were both by three points or less. The Bucks typically play well with a layoff in between games; they're 12-2 SU the past 14 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Expect them to give the Nets all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on BOSTON. Admittedly, the Nets have looked very good. Beating them won't be easy. However, lets keep things in perspective. The Nets won both games at home, as they were supposed to. However, they're now on the road; they're road record isn't as good as Boston's home record. The Celtics, 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, are very well-coached and battle tested. They're still 7-3 ATS (8-2 SU) their last 10 first round playoff games. I backed the Celtics in their last game here; they stepped up and hammered the Wizards by 18 points, a dominant defensive effort. I expect them to be at their very best again Friday and am grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Clippers are the more complete team in this matchup and I expect them to remind everyone of that in Game 1. Doncic is a great offensive player. Kawhi Leonard, however, is a champion. The Clippers' biggest star plays defense while the Mavs' top guy often does not. To be fair, Doncic has actually gotten much better at defense. However, he's not in Leonard's class. The Clippers average more points per game than the Mavs and they allow less per game. The Clippers are 19-11 ATS their past 30 against winning teams and 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) their last nine, when playing with three day's rest in between games. While I'll happily take Leonard and George on their home floor against Doncic and Porzingis, its the Clippers' depth which really gives them an edge. They've got the better role players and more options off the bench. The Clippers won and covered in Game 1 in last year's playoffs against the Mavs, a 118-110 win as a -6.5 point favorite. I expect them to pull away for an even bigger win Saturday night. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Everyone is pretty down on the Celtics right now. I feel that sentiment is providing us with excellent value. Yes, Boston is banged-up. Yes, missing Brown is a big deal. That said, so is coaching and playoff experience. This is a battle-tested team, one which knows what the playoffs are all about. While the Celtics are 15-11 SU/ATS in the playoffs the last couple of seasons, the Wizards are 0-0. Yes, some of their players have been in the playoffs before. Not as a team though. In a situation like this one, that matters. So does homecourt. The Celtics have beaten the Wizards four straight times here at Boston. They're 13-2 the past 15 meetings here. While they've obviously been really hot of late, the Wizards are still a sub-500 team on the road. The recent 30+ point comeback against the Spurs shows that this Boston team won't quit. When the smoke clears, I expect the Celtics to be the team still standing. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. True, the Bucks need to beat the Bulls in order to stay alive for the #2 seed. However, the reality is that even if they do beat the Bulls here, they still need the Nets to lose, at home, to the Cavs. Brooklyn is a double-digit favorite for that game. I see one shop currently listing the Nets at -1100 on the moneyline. In other words, the Bucks know that whatever they do this afternoon, its very likely not going to matter. That said, I expect the Bulls to actually be the hungrier team here. Its their last game and they'd like to close it out with a win. That's particularly true when up against a rival which has beaten them by double-digits in both meetings. The Bucks are just 3-10 ATS their last 13 against losing teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs played a great game in their home finale (102-94 win over Boston) and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. The Wizards have been playing a lot of close ones of late and they could easily be looking/thinking ahead to bigger games. Washington's last five games were decided by one, two, one, one and four points. Having been hammered by the Wizards, at Cleveland, a couple of weeks ago and now playing with "double-revenge," look for the Cavs to give their hosts all they can handle. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Wizards kept things close when these teams met a couple of nights ago. They had a chance to win at the buzzer but ended up losing by a point. That opportunity squandered, I expect them to stumble this evening. The fact that the Bulls lost last night takes some pressure off Washington. Also, Westbrook now has the triple-double record and there could be a slight letdown after achieving that. Either way, the Wizards are still without Beal and the hungry Hawks will take advantage. The Wizards are 15-20 on the road and they give up 117.8 ppg on the road. (Over their last five games, they're allowing 132.4 ppg!) The Hawks, on the other hand, are 22-11 at home, allowing 109.8 ppg. The Hawks like these high-scoring up tempo games here as they're 13-6 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more, including a 7-3 SU/ATS mark in home games with a total of 230 or more. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. Give the Pelicans credit. It would have been easy for them to quit yesterday. They were down double-digits at halftime, at Charlotte. Playing without their two best players and their playoff prospects flickering. They didn't quit though and rallied all the way back to win. Still, they're up against a tougher opponent tonight and I expect last night's hard-fought effort, along with the injuries, to take a toll tonight. The Grizzlies will show no mercy. They've lost to these Pelicans twice already this season and the most recent was a 144-113 blowout. The Grizzlies, 11-6 ATS when avenging a home loss, will be happy to return the favor. Expect them to improve on those stats with a blowout of their own. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I won with the Hornets in their last game and I like how they rallied late to pull away for the cover. I believe that they're catching the Pelicans at the right time. Not only is New Orleans really short-handed - no Zion, no Ingram (others, too) - but the Pelicans have realized that they won't be making the playoffs. They've fought hard but its not happening. While they deserve credit for fighting as hard as they did, I believe that Friday's 2-point loss at Philadelphia will serve as a gut punch to the Pelicans. The Hornets handled the Pelicans at New Orleans and they're 13-8 ATS when listed as favorites. Expect them to take advantage of their depleted guests this evening, cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets got hammered by the Bulls last night. The fact that they're playing the second of b2b games works in our favor, by keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. This is a game that the Hornets need to have. The Magic are a bad team and they're severely banged up. In addition to needing the game and playing at home, the Hornets are more talented and have more depth. They're also 14-8 SU/ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. The Magic are off a 36-point loss of their own, as the depleted roster caught up with them. Look for the determined Hornets to pull away in this one, improving to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams from within their own division. 

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. There's a real possibility that this will prove to be a preview of a first round playoff series. Either way, its hardly a fair fight. The Lakers remain short-handed and the Clippers aren't going to allow them to gain any confidence. While the Lakers are still without some key players, the Clippers have slowly been getting healthier. Though he only played 15 minutes, I like that they got Beverly back last game. The Clippers are the deeper team and he adds to that depth. I also like that Leonard now has a couple games under his belt. I really like how the Clippers rallied to erase a halftime deficit and win last game. They didn't get the cover but it was the type of victory which I feel that they will build momentum from. Factoring in a 104-86 Clipper blowout the last time that these teams met, the Lakers are just 6-13 ATS (4-15 SU) as underdogs. I say the Clippers keep the pedal to the metal and pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While this is a big game for the Wizards, its a bigger game for the Raptors. In fact, its probably their biggest game of the entire season. A win doesn't guarantee them anything but a loss would be devastating. I believe that they're catching the Wizards at the right time. Yes, Washington has been extremely hot. However, the Wizards just left it all on the floor in a battle at Milwaukee, last night. They ended up losing by a single point. Not all b2b spots are equal and that's the type of loss which will often take a toll. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they lost against the Spurs. Coach Nurse acknowledged how huge this game is for the Raptors: "I would say that’s probably our last chance saloon a little bit, right? I think them getting that one against us would be awful tough for us to recover from ... " The Wizards tend to bring out the best in the Raptors and I expect that to be the case tonight. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Knicks have been on quite the run but I expect a trip to Denver to bring them back down to earth. The Nuggets hammered the Knicks (114-89) when the teams met at MSG. That's bad news for the Knicks as they're generally much better at home. They're 22-11 at home but just 15-17 on the road. The Nuggets are also stronger at home, as this has long been a tough venue to play at. The Nuggets are 19-12 on the road but 24-10 here at home. That includes a perfect 6-0 mark their last six games here. In fact, since late March, the Nuggets are 12-1 here and they're 15-2 here since mid-March. As I said, its a tough venue to play at. Making matters worse for the Knicks is that they're banged up at center. Robinson is out and Noel is questionable. I'll assume that Noel plays but even if he was 100%, which is unlikely, there's no stopping the MVP favorite. Jokic had a double-double in the first meeting and he's topped the 30 mark in b2b games. Look for Jokic to do his thing, the Nuggets staying hot at home, while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. As you likely saw, these teams just played last night. The Warriors won 123-108. I don't believe that they're going to be able to beat the Pelicans two nights in a row here though. The last two times that the Warriors played the second of b2b games, they were up against Cleveland and Houston. Though GSW won and covered those games, those teams are both terrible. The Rockets are 16-49, worst in the NBA. The Cavs are 21-43, in a battle for the second worst position in the East. The last time that the Warriors faced a half decent team (Toronto) when playing the second of b2b games, they got crushed by a score of 130-77. Prior to that, they lost 124-108. Going back further finds the Warriors at just 10-22-1 ATS the past 33 times that the played the second of b2b games. The Pelicans, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of times that they played the second of b2b games, are 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. Expect them to make the necessary adjustments, up their intensity and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I believe that this is going to prove to be a very tough spot for the Spurs. Not all b2b spots are equal and this is a difficult one for the Spurs. They're off a hard-fought OT loss last night. That was on the heels of another OT heart-breaker, a game where they blew a 30+ point lead. Prior to that, they lost a close one at Miami. I expect those close losses and extra OT minutes to take a toll on them tonight. While its true that the Spurs have played well in the revenge role, they'll get a chance for some revenge (again) on Wednesday, as these teams will face each other again, then. For tonight, I expect the Jazz to take advantage of the scheduling advantage. Utah is 27-4 and 20-11 ATS here this season. The Jazz are outscoring visiting teams by a dominating 117.5 to 103.8 margin here. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The 76ers have won four straight while the Bulls have dropped three in a row. No brainer on Philly, right? Not in my opinion. Rather, this one sets up very nicely for the Bulls, who play with double revenge from a pair of earlier losses. While Chicago had yesterday off, the 76ers are off an extremely hard fought OT win, at San Antonio. They're just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the current streaks ... while the 76ers are 6-9 ATS after three or more consecutive wins, the Bulls are 7-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I lost with the Celtics in their last game, after having successfully played on them in their previous game. Despite the fact that Boston came up a bucket short of covering, I really liked what I saw. The Spurs were practically flawless offensively in the first half. They moved the ball very well and were hitting their shots at a very high level. They'd scored a remarkable 77 points by halftime. It would have been easy for the Celtics to fold; I was worried they'd pull their starters. Tatum wouldn't let that happen though. The Celtics calmly went to work and fought all the way back to force OT. They eventually won 143-140. (If not for a late Patty Mills 3-pointer, the Celtics would have covered.) I believe thats the type of win that they'll build positive momentum from. Even off the non-cover, the Celtics are still 7-4 ATS their last 11 against teams with a winning record. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 4-8 ATS their last 12 against teams with a winning record. After this game, the Celtics get a couple of days off. On the other hand, Portland will play at Atlanta tomorrow. The Blazers are playing their fourth straight on the road. Look for the Celtics to leave it all on the floor (again) en route to their third straight win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Bucks stumbled at Houston last night while the Bulls rested. The Bucks are at the end of a road trip and they've got b2b games against Brooklyn on deck. They're also likely to be without their superstar. While he was questionable due to his right ankle last night, Giannis started. However, he quickly turned that ankle and had to leave last night's game. That said, it appears highly unlikely that'll he go tonight. The Bulls have only played two home games since 4/17. They won those games by scores of 106-96 and 108-91. I say they're catching the Bucks at the right time. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. I won with the Celtics in their last game and I believe that they turned a corner in that one. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. The Spurs are at the end of a 4-game road trip. They lost by five, at Miami, last game. The Celtics lost a close one earlier in the year, at San Antonio and the Spurs have given them problems here over the years. They're going to be motivated to change that tonight. They probably still won't have Walker back but are otherwise relatively healthy. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams with a winning record. Expect them to bring their best effort tonight, en route to picking us up the win and cover. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams played and lost yesterday. Both will want to bounce back tonight. The Celtics figure to be hungrier though. Not only have they now lost three straight but one of those losses came against these same Hornets, at Charlotte. Walker remains out. Taytum had last night off and the hope is that he'll be able to return tonight. Obviously, he's a difference maker. However, even in the event he doesn't go, the Celtics have more than enough to take care of business on their homecourt. Keep in mind that Charlotte, 0-4 ATS its last four as a road underdog, continues to play without the likes of Ball and Hayward. When these teams met here a few weeks ago, laying -9.5 points, Boston won by 30. The previous game here saw the Celtics win by 26. In fact, the Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS (8-0 SU) the last eight meetings here. Playing with "recent revenge" and looking to snap their skid, expect the highly motivated Celtics to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Grizzlies have been playing well and they beat me yesterday. This is a tough spot for them though and I'm willing to go against them, again. The Grizzlies had a shot to win here recently. Denver eked out a 2-OT win though. The Grizzlies weren't playing the second of b2b games for that one though. They're doing so here, while playing at elevation. Morant played 36 minutes while Valanciunus returned to played 30. They'll feel those minutes tonight, as this has been a brutal stretch. Its the end of a long 7-game road trip. It marks their 14th game since 4/4, a 22-day stretch, 11 of those coming on the road. This road trip started on 4/16. So, this marks their 7th road game in the past 11 days. This is still a tough place to play. Expect the Nuggets to be fresher as they get the "W" and cover the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met here a couple of nights ago. The Grizzlies eked out a 2-point win. They'll also meet again on Wednesday, at Memphis. Not only will the Blazers be on the road for that one, they'll also be playing their second game in two nights. (They play at Indiana, on Tuesday.) In other words, they better win today's game or they could easily risk dropping all three of these games to Memphis. Indeed, off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, including the one at Memphis, this is "must win" territory. That doesn't always means that teams perform, but in this case I believe that it will. The Blazers are 5-3 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss and they're 7-3 ATS when off an "upset" loss in their previous game. Both teams had yesterday off but the Blazers also have tomorrow off, while the Grizzlies will be play a revenge game vs. Denver. Look for the Blazers to leave it all on the floor, en route to an important win and cover.

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. Both teams played and lost last night. For the Pistons, it was just another loss. They've got 41 of them, most in the Eastern Conference. For the Spurs, they can't afford another home loss. April has presented the Spurs with a challenging schedule, as they only got to play five home games for the entire month. This is the last of those five and they lost the previous four. They play their next four on the road. Then, they get a single home game - and that's against a tough opponent in the 76'ers - before going back on the road again. In other words, they badly need to take care of business, at home, tonight. The Spurs are a profitable 9-5 ATS off a double-digit loss. Even off last night's loss, they're still 14-8 ATS against teams from the East. They beat the Pistons by 10, at Detroit, last month. When the teams last played here, the Spurs won by 27. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors need to keep winning and they're catching the Nets at the right time. Not only are the Nets off a win last night and playing their sixth game in the past nine days but they're also extremely short-handed. They had only nine players available last night and will likely be in a similar situation tonight. While the Nets are in a tough scheduling spot, the Raptors have had the past two days off. The Nets brings out the best in Toronto; the Raptors have won the past five meetings. Schedule in their favor, look for the Raptors to win their fourth straight overall, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs could use a big win right now and the Kings are the perfect opponent to get it against. Off 9-straight losses, Sacramento is in freefall at the moment. Opportunities to snap the skid are on the horizon, just not yet. Not here. The Mavs won by 19 last time the teams met here, a 130-111 blowout. Having recently faced some top tier defensive teams, they're going to be happy to see Sacramento. Already, in April, Dallas has faced the Knicks twice. NY allows the fewest points in the league and also holds opposing teams to the lowest fg percentage. The Mavs have also faced the Jazz, Bucks and 76ers this month. Those three teams all rank in the top 5, in terms of opposing teams field goal percentage. The Kings, on the other hand, give up more points (118.8 ppg) than any team in the league. The Kings allow opposing teams to connect 49.1% of their field goals. That's also the worst mark in the NBA. This is the type of defense that Dallas can "get healthy" against. Expect the Mavs, 7-5 ATS (8-4 SU) when off an upset loss, to put up a big number and, ultimately, for the Kings to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Everyone is suddenly really down on the Bulls. They've dropped four in a row and now they're without LaVine. As a result, we're now able to get them as a home underdog. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Bulls were only +2 at Memphis, a few days ago. Now, they're at home, more desperate and playing with revenge, yet we're getting even more points. With all due respect to LaVine, that's providing us with excellent value. That recent 3/12 game, at Memphis, was a tough spot for the Bulls. While both teams were playing the second of b2b games, the Bulls were also playing their fourth road game in five nights. The Grizzlies took advantage. The Bulls are back home now though and they had yesterday off. They've still got plenty without LaVine and I expect their very best effort. Look for the Bulls to bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their past 10, after having lost their previous three or more games. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Time change due to the protests. Assuming that doesn't stop the game from being played, that means we get some afternoon basketball. Either way, I was going to like the setup for the T-Wolves. We're getting some extra value due to the fact that the played yesterday. However, yesterday's game was a blowout loss where Towns didn't play. Towns is the "straw that stirs the drink" for this team and he should be back and good to go tonight. (Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of his mother's passing and he attended a memorial in her honor.) So, I'm not bothered by the fact that they played yesterday. It should also be noted that the last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games, they went on the road, at Philly, and stayed within single digits, as 14 point underdogs. Also, it was exactly one month ago when they beat Portland outright here, when playing the second of b2b games. As for the Bucks, they play at Atlanta tomorrow. Wihile he did return to practice yesterday, with Giannis still a bit banged up, its not out of the question that they save him for that game. Either way, this is a tough spot. That game at Atlanta tomorrow will be the final game of a 3-game road trip. However, if you consider that the Bucks only played one home game, prior to that trip, and that was preceded by six road games out West, I feel that the Bucks could well be getting road weary. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Wolves have been far more competitive lately. Expect them to give the Bucks all they can handle this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I successfully played against the Bulls in their last game and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. The Bulls have a number of banged-up players, who have been playing through nagging minor injuries. Guys like LaVine and Markkanen. Of course, it didn't stop LaVine from scoring 50 last time out. Still, this has been a long road trip and I believe that the heavy minutes are starting to wear on them. I thought that was evident when they faded late in Friday's loss. Now, they're playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip, one which wraps up tomorrow night, at Memphis. While that may not seem like a "long road trip," consider that the Bulls only played one home game before the trip and that one was preceded by four road games. That being the case, the Bulls actually haven't played in the same city for b2b games for roughly three weeks, since they did so on 3/22 and 3/24. Meanwhile, Minnesota is quietly playing well right now. Last time out, the T-Wolves went on the road and took the Celtics to OT. They've won three of their last four home games, including each of their past two, wins against the Kings and Knicks. Overall, they're averaging 122 points their last five games, after topping the 135-mark on b2b occasions. I say they give the Bulls all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the ouright win. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks had their win streak snapped on Wednesday. Prior to that, they'd won four straight, covering in each. Wednesday's game was their second game in two nights and it caught up to the Hawks. The shoe is on the other foot tonight though. While the Hawks had yesterday off to recover, the Bulls are off a win over the Raptors. Note that LaVine and others were banged up going into that game but still played fairly heavy minutes. The Bulls have won three of 10, when playing the second of b2b games. They're also 0-3 SU/ATS the past three times that they'd won their previous three games. The Hawks pounded the Bulls, at Chicago, earlier in the season. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to handle them once again. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Tough spot for the Jazz as they're off a hard fought OT loss, at Phoenix. Don't expect the Blazers, who had yesterday off, to show them any sympathy. They haven't forgotten that the Jazz embarrassed them, at Portland, in their very first game of the season. They're also anxious to bounce back from Tuesday's blowout loss to the Clippers. Note that the Blazers are 4-2 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss and 6-4 ATS (7-3 SU) when off a double-digit loss. The O/U line is 230 or higher, at most shops, as of this writing. That suits the Blazers fine as they're also 10-4 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. (The Jazz are 2-4 ATS in games with an O/U line of 230 or more.) While most might assume the Jazz play well off an upset loss, they're just 5-7 ATS in that situation. Portland's last two visits here were decided by three and six. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Both teams come in playing well. However, I expect it to be the Heat which continue to do so. The Heat are a profitable 18-6 ATS their last 24 against teams from the Southwest. One of those losses came at Memphis, a few weeks ago. Morant dribbled the length of the floor with seconds left to break a tie. That tough loss triggered a 6-game SU/ATS skid for the Heat. Needless to say, they haven't forgotten and they absolutely want to avoid a repeat performance. Since the slide, the Heat have responded by going 4-0 SU/ATS their last four. During that span, they're allowing a mere 96.5 ppg, holding two of those opponents below 90. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have allowed opponents to hit triple-digits in 10 straight games. The Heat have had two days off and they also get tomorrow off. (The Grizzlies have had one day off and they play at Atlanta, tomorrow.) Expect them to leave it all on the floor tonight, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Laying this many points on the road is asking a lot of the Pelicans right now. They're banged-up. They've lost two in a row. Their last two wins both came by single-digits. They're only 7-14 SU on the road. Only once, in all of 2021, have they won a road game by more than six points. That was back in early February. While the Rockets have indeed been pretty bad, the Pelicans are just 6-14 ATS their last 20 against losing records. The teams have split a pair of games at New Orleans. Playing at home and catching them at the right time, look for the Rockets to give the Pelicans all they can handle here, picking up the cover with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. The Kings beat up on the Spurs here on Monday night. Don't expect it to happen again. Off that 132-115 victory, note that the Kings are just 2-7 ATS their last nine, after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Off that loss, note that the Spurs are 63-33-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. The Spurs are 7-4 ATS their last 11, off a double-digit loss. Needless to say, they're going to be highly motivated here. On Monday, the Kings hit 50% of their three point shots (8 of 19) compared to the Spurs' 10 of 27 (37%) mark. Also, the Kings got to the line 25 times compared to San Antonio getting to the line 14 times. I don't expect the Kings to have those edges in this one. Rather, look for the revenge-minded Spurs to make the necessary adjustments en route to bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. I believe that Michigan is peaking at the right time. I successfully played against the Wolverines in their loss to Ohio State. However, I came back and supported the Wolverines in their win over LSU. Winning that game was no small task. The Tigers were a explosive team with a trio of extremely dangerous offensive threats. Yet, the Wolverines took their best punch and prevailed. The Seminoles represent a different type of threat but I backed the Wolverines once again. Michigan won with ease, looking every bit like the team which dominated the Big Ten most of the way this year. The Bruins beat me last game after I'd won with them in their previous game. They deserve plenty of credit for beating Alabama. That said, the Tide partially handed the gmae to them by missing 14 free throws. (That was the worst free throw performance by any team, with a minimum of 25 attempts, in this tournament, since 2003.) Michigan won't be nearly so generous. While the Bruins are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were neutral court underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, the Wolverines are 3-0 ATS their last three, as neutral court favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. Expect them to improve on those stats on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After I backed the Cougars big in their win over Syracuse, I'm coming right back with them again here. The Beavers have been on a great run but, in my opinion, they haven't faced a defense, or a team, like this one. That might sound funny, given that they just beat Loyola-Illinois, the team which allows the fewest points in the league. The Cougars are #2 in that department though, allowing only 57.5 ppg, despite playing a tougher schedule. (Houston's strength of schedule was #77 compared to #97 for Loyola.) The big difference between the two defenses, however, is that Houston is #1 in the entire country in terms of opponents field goal percentage. At 41.3%, Loyola ranked towards the middle of the pack. Indeed, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Unlike Loyola, Houston can also score. The Ramblers were an offensively challenged team which scores 67.7 ppg while Houston is an explosive offensive team which averages 76.9 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bears average only 70.8 ppg and they allow 67.7. So, the Beavers score six points less than Houston and they allow 10 points more. The Cougars are an excellent rebounding team. The Beavers are not. With the Beavers struggling to score, it all adds up to a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Bruins in their last game. However, Alabama is an entirely different team, a vastly superior one, to Abilene Christian. Alabama can beat teams with their offense or its defense. The Tide took care of Maryland with ease last game, a 96-77 blowout. The previous game, they showed they could dominate defensively, holding their first round opponent (Iona) to just 55 points. While the Bruins have been playing well, they won't be ready for what's waiting for them here. The Tide haven't lost in more than a month and all their wins over that stretch, with the exception of a 1-point win over LSU, have been by five or more points. The Tide may not score 96 again but they'll score more than enough to pull away for another win and cover.

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I love the matchup here. The Cougars were severely tested last round and I expect that to serve as a wake-up call. The Cougars have an outstanding backcourt; deep, talented and experienced. The well-coached Cougars can beat opponents from the outside and if teams try to sell out to guard the perimeter, then they dominate inside. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where they're really good. In fact, they allow a mere 57.9 ppg, opposing teams hitting just 37.3% of their field goals. (That's the best field goal percentage allowed in the entire country and second fewest points allowed in the country!) Syracuse, by comparison, allows more than 70 ppg, more than 76 ppg away from home. The Orange haven't fared too well in recent seasons against other top tier defenses - and they haven't faced one this good. Syracuse is just 7-13 ATS (6-14 SU) its last 20, against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. While they've put together a nice run without him, this is a matchup where the Orange could have really used Bourama Sidibe. Having not played since 3/21 and taking some practices off, Houston's Jarreau will be ready to play. While he may be less than 100%, he's a warrior and I expect him to be ready to go. Though they're the favorites, I feel that the pressure is a little less now on Houston. Not only is Syracuse a big name team from a top conference but down double-digits, late in the second half last game, the Cougars were already done. Look for them to carry the momentum from that comeback into Saturday's game, ultimately, their superior defense leading to the win and cover. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS. Oral Roberts has been one of the best stories of the tournament. However, that story comes to an end here. In case you haven't noticed, the SEC turned out to be really good. Alabama is still looking strong. LSU very nearly knocked off Michigan. The Razorbacks have beaten both those teams, too. They're also off a win over a strong Texas Tech team. These teams actually met last season. While Arkansas won by "only" 11, its worth mentioning that the line for that game was -19.5. Yet, this Arkansas team is bigger and deeper. It wasn't that long ago that Oral Roberts lost by 15 to South Dakota State. So, this team can be blown out. I expect the Razorbacks, 16-6 ATS as favorites, to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way, pulling away for perhaps the biggest blowout of the weekend. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors didn't trade Kyle Lowry after all. I expect that to be a big relief and I look for them to make a determined push for the playoffs. While Powell (traded for Trent and Hood) was doing a lot, its Lowry who remains the heart and soul of the team. For now. He was +42 while on the floor last game. Siakim has admittedly been inconsistent. However, he's streaky and when he's on - as he is right now - he's very tough to stop. (Over his last two games, Siakim has 48 points and 18 rebounds.) The Suns beat the Raptors earlier in the season. However, Toronto was off to a terrible start at the time and that game was at Phoenix. Off a destruction of Denver last time out and now in their (temporary) "home," I expect the Raptors to get some payback. They're 8-5 ATS their last 13 in the 'revenge' role. Relieved from the deadline having passes, expect them to improve on those stats with a great shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Magic have quietly been playing pretty well this month, particularly here at home. I believe that they're providing us with excellent value here. Through eight March games, Orlando is 5-3 ATS. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark at home and a 2-2 ATS record on the road. A closer look at the four March home games shows that even the lone 'non-cover' was actually just a 3-point SU loss. Last game here, the Magic beat Brooklyn outright. They also played very close games here against Miami, Atlanta and Dallas. None of those teams beat them by more than seven. The Nuggets are off a loss last time out and before that, they only beat Chicago by four. These teams will meet again in less than two weeks, at Denver. That one will set up favorably for the Nuggets, as the Magic will be off a late game at Utah the night before and playing the final leg of a 5-game road trip. This one, however, sets up nicely for the home team. Look for the Magic to continue their solid homecourt play this month, giving the Nuggets all they can handle with a great shot at the upset. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The T-Wolves aren't favored often. However, they're favored here for good reason and I expect a win and cover. OKC is off a game yesterday. This will be Thunder's fifth game in the past eight days and fourth straight on the road. They're banged up and I expect it to catch up with them tonight. With the star center back, the T-Wolves have quietly covered four of their past six. That includes outright wins over the Pelicans, Blazers and Suns. Well-rested and playing arguably their best basketball of the season, venue in their favor, expect the T-Wolves to take advantage of this favorable scheduling situation. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The Gators are flying under the radar a bit, in my opinion. They could easily be laying double-digits in this one; Ohio State was -15 against Oral Roberts in the first round. Of course, the Golden Eagles deserve plenty of credit for upsetting the Buckeyes. Doing it twice in a row, however, is an entirely different matter. The Gators rallied when it mattered to take care of Virginia Tech. Now, momentum on their side, they get a dream matchup that they're more than capable of taking advantage of. Oral Roberts is 1-13 (SU) its last 14 against SEC teams. The Gators are 12-7 ATS their last 19, as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Oral Roberts will likely be a popular pick as the Gators aren't getting much respect and many love to back the Cinderella team. I'm not buying it though. Superior defense and athletes, the Gators pull away for a convincing win and cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. This is the first of two straight between these teams. They'll meet again Thursday. I believe that the Blazers are going to be the hungrier team for this one. I also feel that they're offering excellent value. Yes, the Pelicans have looked good their last couple of games. However, keep in mind that they're still only 5-12 on the road. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 11-7 at home. Thursday will mark the first of b2b games for the Blazers, as they play Dallas the next night. The Pelicans get a couple days off after Thursday. I mention that to emphasize the importance of winning tonight for the Blazers. Off a loss and having dropped two of three since the break, Portland needs to take care of business tonight. Note that Portland is 4-2 ATS off an upset loss. As for the Pelicans, they're 5-14 SU/ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their previous game and that includes an 0-4 SU/ATS mark after scoring 130 or more. Blazers roll. 

I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. The Rams have done a great job. They lost all their starters from last year and were very young coming into this season. Picked #7 in the preseason, they deserve a lot of credit for getting this far. That said, I feel that their youth will finally catch up with them against an experienced St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies were the opposite of the Rams in that they brought back all their starters from the previous season. While they were only projected to be fourth in the conference, like VCU, the Bonnies exceeded the expectations of many. Still, their spot in this game is arguably far less surprising than VCU. While the teams did split two reg. season meetings, the Bonnies held a 134-121 edge in total points. The Bonnies average the most offensive rebounds in the conference and the Rams give up a lot of them. Ultimately, however, its the Bonnies' superior defense whiich will see them win this one. The Bonnies have allowed 53, 59, 55, 41, 53 and 58 their last six games. No team has reached 60. VCU, on the other hand, has allowed 65 or more points in four of its past five games. VCU should be in great shape next season, but this one belongs to St. Bonaventure. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. We're getting some extra line value with the Pacers due to the fact that they played last night. However, one must always keep in mind that not all b2b spots are equal. In this case, (most of) the Pacers had the All Star Break off, prior to last night. So, they're aren't playing a third game in four nights or anything. Rather, they had a chance to shake off the rust and they should be in good shape tonight. Note that Chris LeVert was held out last night but will make his debut for the Pacers tonight. Even in limited minutes, he provides a boost and some fresh legs. The Pacers are going to be hungry to snap their skid and to avenge an earlier home loss, to these same Suns. While the Suns are obviously no slouches, Indiana has some more really tough games coming up. That makes finding a way to win here that much more urgent. Sabonis is a monster and Brogdon is off a monster game of his own. Look for the revenge-minded Pacers to give their hosts all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on CREIGHTON. To their credit, the Hoyas have been playing great. However, they've run into a superior opponent here and I believe that their run will come to a convincing halt. Keep in mind that the Bluejays were expected to finish 2nd in the conference, before the season. Georgetown was projected, by some, to finish last. So, the Hoyas have already exceeded expectations. Eventually, however, talent wins out. The Hoyas managed a major upset of the Bluejays on Feb 3rd, as they were 14 point road underdogs. That woke up the Bluejays though and they crushed the Hoyas in the rematch, a 63-48 beatdown, at Georgetown. Today, the Bluejays catch the Hoyas playing their fourth game in four days. While Gtown had to play on 3/10, Creighton had the day off. That extra day will catch up with the Hoyas here. Look for the Bluejays to blow out the Hoyas, the favorite improving to 5-1 ATS the last six meetings. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Michigan has some some chinks in its armor lately. The rival Spartans beat them to close the season and yesterday saw Maryland jump all over them out of the gate. Remember, Illinois pounded them to begin the month, too. While the Wolverines did come back to win and cover yesterday, I expect them to have an even tougher task against a revenge-minded Buckeye team which appears to be peaking at just the right time. Ohio State had been absolutely rolling before a 5-point loss to these same Wolverines on 2/21. That led to a 4-game slide, a 5-game skid at the betting window. The Buckeyes bounced back when it mattered though, beating Minnesota Thursday and Purdue yesterday. Order restored and looking to avenge the loss that started their skid, I expect the best of the Buckeyes in this one. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS their last seven, after a SU win. Expect them to give Michigan all it can handle, with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. I like how this one sets up for the Grizzlies. Memphis got a chance to play Wednesday. The Grizzlies looked great, too. I said this of them before that game: "... They can score ... They put up 125 against these same Wizards before the break and are averaging 123 ppg their last three ... " Sure enough, the Grizzlies scored 127. It was an impressive team win, along with a dominant performance (29/20!) from center Valančiūnas. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Nuggets haven't played in a long time. Their last game was on 3/4. Note that Denver is just 4-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, the Nuggets got blown out by 21. I also like that the Grizzlies have tomorrow off while the Nuggets return home for a big game against Dallas tomorrow. Including a 104-96 win over the Nuggets the last time the teams faced each other, the Grizzlies are 24-11-1 ATS their last 36 against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. 

I'm playing on BAYLOR. The Cowboys have been on a great run but I expect it to come to an end in a big way today. Baylor won both this season's meetings by double-digits. The Bears are on a different level. They score 85.3 ppg and they allow just 65.6. By comparison, the Cowboys score 76.7 and allow 72.3. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on a neutral court, 3-0 ATS their last three. While dominant at home, the Bears can win on the road, too. The Cowboys learned that the hard way. They had a 34-25 late in the first half in this season's game at Stillwater, but the Bears fought back to win 81-66. Baylor trailed 50-48 with 12 minutes left, then went on a 19-1 run and led by double-digits the rest of the way. Indeed, this team will be hard to keep up with the entire way. Look for yesterday's game vs. K-State to serve as a "wake up call" and for the Bears to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, en route to a third double-digit win over the Cowboys. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The break figures to be just what the Bucks needed. Rested and refreshed, I expect them to blow out the Knicks. Needless to say, the Bucks haven't forgotten that the Knicks pounded them, at MSG. That 130-110 beating was one of the low points of the first half and the Bucks will be anxious to have their revenge. Note that Milwaukee was favored by 13 points for that game, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're working with a lower line. Value. The Bucks have beaten the Knicks seven straight times here at Milwaukee. The last three of those wins, all Milwaukee covers, came by 26, 44 and 16 points. This season, the Knicks average 101.3 ppg on the road while the Bucks average 118.6 ppg at home. Payback time. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins closed the reg. season with three straight losses. Those results have helped us by keep this line lower than it otherwise easily could have been, which I believe is providing us with excellent value. (The Bruins were -11.5 point favorites for this season's lone reg. season meeting.) Note that UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past six times it was off three straight defeats.  The Beavers had a nice run towards the end of the season but got brought back down to earth in a big way by rival Oregon. I don't believe that they're going to be able to keep up with a motivated Bruins team. While the Bruins score 71.2 ppg on the road, the Beavers score just 63.4. The #4 seed is 14-7 all-time vs. the #5 seed, in the Pac 12 tournament. Expect the Bruins to improve on those stats Thursday, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Rice won both regular season meetings but the Owls haven't played well since. I don't believe that they should be favored by this much. Last time out, the Owls barely beat "Our Lady Of The Lake." Prior to that, the Owls had lost four straight, failing to cover in the final three of those. Those losses came by 21, 44 and 43 points. The Golden Eagles have been far more competitive. They're 1-2 SU their final three but both the losses were by single digits. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Golden Eagles step up and score the upset, setting up a date with Marshall on Wednesday. 

I'm playing on PEPPERDINE. The Cougars are definitely tough and I respect them. The Waves are a lot better than many people realize though. This is a veteran team which has been waiting for this day. The Waves have already beaten BYU once this season (76-73 in the last meeting) and they believe that they're capable of doing so again. I like the fact that Pepperdine already has a tournament game under its belt. It beat Santa Clara 78-70 on Saturday. BYU, on the other hand, hasn't played yet this month. The Cougars are an ugly 43-69 ATS in neutral court games over the years while Pepperdine is a solid 50-39 ATS. That includes a 10-3 ATS mark in the Waves' last 13 neutral site games. The Cougars are 0-2 ATS their last two conf. tourney games, an ugly 11-28 ATS over the years. I expect the Waves to give then all they can handle and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on FURMAN. I believe that the gap between these teams is wider than the pointspread suggests. Consider that Furman was favored by 11 when the teams met in the reg. season. That was at VMI, too. The Keydets actually managed a 1-point win in that one. That works in our favor here, in my opinion, as it will ensure Furman takes take this game for granted. Keep in mind that Furman had won the previous 10 games in the series. The Keydets haven't played since way back on 2/20, which will hurt them here. The Paladins are 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Rebels have a lot working for them here. They're the superior team. They're playing at home. They're looking to avenge an earlier upset loss. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. Both teams played on 3/2. However, the Commodores also went and squeezed a non-conference road game in, at Cincinnati, on 3/4. That's going to catch up with them here. The last time these teams played here, the Rebels were laying -10.5 and won by 26. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. They're also 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Going back, finds them at 21-9 ATS in that situation. Additionally, the Rebels are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Catching the Commodores playing their third straight on the road, expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on TEXAS-ARLINGTON. The #3 seed Mavericks are favored for good reason in this one. The #6 seed Trojans score just 60.2 ppg when playing away from home. The Mavericks, on the other hand, score 72 ppg, when playing on the road. These teams didn't meet during the reg. season but they have met in the first week of March, each of the past two years. In both cases, the Mavericks won by double-digits, 78-64 on 3/3/20 and 79-66 on 3/2/19. They were laying -5.5 and -5 for those games. While Troy hasn't won a game in a month, Texas-Arlington is off b2b wins. Playing better basketball, I say the Mavericks take care of the Trojans, once again. *Top Sun Belt Tourney Play

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After getting blown out last game, the Bucks are going to be all busness tonight. They're 33-17 ATS (38-12 SU) the past 50 times that they were off an upset loss. They're also 17-7-1 (19-6 SU) their last 25, after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies typically can't keep up when high-scoring guests come to town. They're 3-8 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. When the line clmbs to 230 or more, they're 0-3 SU/ATS. In this case, the Bucks average 119.5 ppg on the road while the Grizzlies average 108.5 ppg at home. Look for the "angry" Bucks to put up a really big number and for the Grizzlies to be unable to keep up.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a unique situation, brought on by Covid. The Bearcats would normally be playing a conference opponent, as would the Commodores. The Bearcats were supposed to host SMU but with that game being put on pause, the teams were able to arrange this one. Not only do I believe it favors the home team, I also believe that a visit from a weak and struggling SEC team is exactly what the Bearcats need. The Bearcats have won six of eight and they nearly beat Memphis last time out. Coach Brannen noted: "I told the guys, 'If you just show that fight for a longer period of time, we would have won that game. I felt like we should have won this game." The Commodores are 3-9 their last 12 games and they got pounded last time out. That was on 3/2, which doesnt allow much time in between games. Not when taking this game on short notice and playing on the road. Cincy, by comparison, hasn't played since 2/27 and hasn't had to travel. The Bearcats are a perfect 17-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, against teams with losing records. Expect them to improve on those stats, while picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. On a 10-game winning streak, the Aztecs are tough to beat. Looking to clinch the regular season title, they've still got something to play for. That said, they just won their home finale and they've got bigger games ahead of them. I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot and also that the line is too high. The Rebels have quietly won three of their past four. The lone loss came by three points. After rallying from a 16-point deficit to win by two last time out, UNLV Coach T.J. Otzelberger had this to say: "I felt like down the stretch, even though we still weren’t perfect, it was as together as we’ve been as a team and I could tell in the huddle and as we communicated that the guys felt good about how they were playing together. Hopefully that’s something we can continue to build on as we move forward.”Speaking of close games, the Aztec won by just four points last time out and their previous game went to OT. Look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Pacers badly need a victory and a date with the Cavs figures to be just what the doctor ordered. When these teams met earlier this season, on 12/31, Indiana won by a score of 119-99.  Yes, the Cavs would like to avenge the earlier loss. However, they're just 6-16 ATS the last 22 times that they played with revenge from an earlier loss. Off their 101-90 win over the Rockets, note that Cleveland is 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times it allowed 90 or fewer points in its previous game. I expect a big effort from the Pacers and am laying the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH. I like how this one sets up for the home team. Oregon State has been on an ATS roll but with a big game against archrival Oregon on deck, its going to be tough to focus on the Utes. Utah got back on track with a win over USC last time out and I expect that win to generate some positive momentum. While the Beavers won this season's earlier meeting at OSU, the Utes are a dominant 88-55 ATS over the years when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. Also, note that Utah is 4-2 ATS its past six as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range, a lucrative 29-16 ATS its last 45 in that role. The Utes won by 12 last meeting here and I expect another big win tonight. Lay the points.

I'm playing on NIU. Both teams are going to view this as an opportunity at a rare win. Playing at home, I expect the Huskies to be the team which gets it. While NIU's 23-16 home record the past 2+ seasons is certainly nothing special, it looks really good when compared to Western Michigan's 7-33 road record. This season, the Broncos are getting outscored by an average of 75.9 to 59.1 when playing on the road. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that the Broncos are 0-7 their last seven games with a total in the 130s. The home team has won four straight in the series, NIU winning the last two here by scored of 72-69 and 76-74. Expect another victory for the home team. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Knicks have played fairly well. Last night's win brought them to 500 on the season. In the East, that's good enough to have them tied with the Raptors, with the fourth best record. Only Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee have been better. The Knicks are still 7-10 on the road though and this is a tough spot. While they were leaving it all on the floor, in eking out the 3-point win at MSG, the Pistons were resting, waiting for them. The Pistons know that they'll face these same Knicks at MSG, where NY is 10-7, in a few days. They also know that they're 3-15 on the road (compared to 6-9 at home) and that they won't have the schedule in their favor for that 3/4 game. That makes taking care of business this evening imperative. Note that the Knicks are 0-3 ATS in 2021, when playing on the road, after playing the previous day. Losses were at Chicago, Sacramento and Charlotte. Schedule and venue in their favor, look for the Pistons to move to 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division teams. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. These teams met a couple of days ago. The Aggies jumped out to a big lead but took their foot off the gas late and allowed Nevada to sneak in for the late cover. I expect them to have learned their lesson and look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. While they were off b2b losses entering last game, the Aggies now have their momentum back. They're 9-2 SU/ATS off a conf. win. They're also still a healthy 11-5 ATS as favorites. Nevada did a good job Friday considering it had a long layoff before that game. That layoff figures to catch up with them in this one though. I say the Aggies complete the sweep in "blowout fashion." 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. This one sets up nicely for the home underdog. The Jazz are off a rare loss last night. While they were battling, the Magic were resting, waiting for them. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Jazz will be playing their third game in four nights. Having just facing the defending Eastern Conf. champs last night, after having faced the defending NBA champs in their previous game, its going to be hard for the Jazz to "get up" for the lowly Magic. Mitchell and Gobert had 36 and 37 hard minutes last night while Conley and O'Neal chipped in roughly 33 each. It wouldn't be a shock to see someone get the night off, though I'm certainly not going to count on that. Either way, I look for the minutes to cactch up with them and won't be surprised when the Magic are in this the entire way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. With all due respect to Eastern Kentucky, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. The Tigers, admittedly, have underachieved this season. They're usually competitive though, the majority of their losses coming by "two touchdowns" or less. One of their losses which came by more than that was at home against these same Colonels. I expect that blowout loss to provide some added motivation for the Tigers here. Having just snapped Belmont's 21-game winning (30-game OVC) streak last game, I won't be shocked if and when the Colonels have a bit of a letdown against the lowly Tigers. Grab the generous points and look for this one to be a lot closer than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal won by 10 when these teams met at OSU, in January. I expect another double-digit win today. This is one of Stanford's best roles. The Cardinal are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when listed as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. They haven't forgotten that the Beavers swept them last season and they'll be happy to return the favor this year. The last time that the Cardinal were off b2b losses, they responded by blowing out Cal, winning by 15. The previous time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with an outright win (and cover) against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back big once again. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Nevada is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back losses, the Aggies are going to be in an angry mood. The last time that they were off b2b losses, the Aggies reeled off consecutive SU/ATS victories, winning by nine and 16 points. Even off the b2b losses, the Aggies are still 11-4 SU/ATS in conference play. They've outscored conf. opponents by an average score of 76.1 to 60.3. Its important to note that the Aggies were off a long Covid layoff prior to the two losses. The shoe is on the other foot this time though. This time, Utah State is hosting a team which has had a long layoff. Nevada hasn't played since 2/7. Nevada has played just two road games the past six weeks and went 0-2 SU/ATS in those games. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on OKC. The Hawks are a good young team, capable of beating the likes of Boston, as they did last time out. That was at home though and they're only 6-9 on the road. They're also just 1-4 SU/ATS when off an 'upset' victory. Off the big win over Boston and with a pair of games against Miami on deck, I won't be surprised if they get surprised tonight. The Thunder play hard nearly every night and are off a victory over the Spurs. They've allowed 108 or fewer points in four straight games. The Thunder are 7-5 ATS in non-conf. games this season and 14-9 ATS their last 23 against Southeast teams. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CAL. Both these teams will be viewing this game as a chance at a rare conference victory. Playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier road loss, I expect the Bears to be the team which rises to the occasion and gets it. Note that the Bears are 6-3 ATS their last nine in the revenge role. Cal is also 5-2 ATS the past seven times it was a home underdog of three or less, all five wins came outright. During that span, the Beavers were 0-2 ATS (and SU) as road favorites of three or less. The Bears have outscored visiting teams by a 68.4 to 67 margin here. Not great but much better than being outscored by an average of 68.3 to 61, which is the case for the Beavers, when on the road. The Bears eked out a close one the last time these teams met here and they've won 18 of the past 21 as the home team in this series. Payback time. 

I'm playing on DENVER. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Wizards are at the end of a Western Conf. road trip. They're already looking forward to getting home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, take to the road after this game. They're going to be anxious to to pick up a victory before they go. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Wizards upset them, at Washington, earlier. The Nuggets are 53-33 SU and 47-37-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the revenge role. In terms of line value, consider that Denver was favored by eight points, at Washington, just over a week ago. The Nuggets also lost at Washington last season. However, the game here at Denver saw them win by 13. I say the Nuggets pull away for another double-digit win on Thursday. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. It would be easy to make a case for the Seminoles. They've been playing very well and are off a road win. They also blew out the Hurricanes in this season's earlier meeting. Meanwhile, Miami is off a blowout loss. While all that may seem to point to the Noles, its actually working in Miami's favor. For starters, we're now working with a very generous line. Consider that the earlier meeting, at FSU, had a line of -11.5. Last year's game here at Miami had a line of -6. Speaking of last year, the Canes also got blown out on the road but the game here was close the entire way, decided by only four points. The Canes are 8-5 ATS their last 13, when off three or more consec. losses. They're also 8-5 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS when attempting to avenge a blowout loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Noles are just 3-10 ATS against sub-500 teams, the past 2+ seasons. With FSU potentially looking ahead to UNC, grab the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Pacers have had some unexpected time off. One game got ppd due to weather. Another got ppg due to Covid-testing. It wasn't an issue on the Pacers' end though. So, they've been able to keep practicing, while also getting some much needed rest. The ability to hold several days of practice just doesnt happen during this short, compacted season. I expect them to make the most of their unique break and look for them to be refreshed for tonight's game. On the other hand, the Warriors are off a win at MSG last night. Curry led the way with another great game. However, keep in mind that he'd missed his previous game, feeling disoriented. Two games in two days could catch up with them. Either way, I like how the Pacers match up against this team. They handled them at Golden State and I look for another win and cover for the Pacers tonight. 

I'm playing on RICHMOND. Not only are the Spiders the stronger team and playing at home, they've also got a scheduling advantage. While Richmond has been playing recently, the Minutemen have not. UMass has only played three times since 1/18 and hasn't played a game since 2/6. Thats a long layoff and will likely lead to some rust. It should be noted that the Minutemen may be missing some players, too. These teams last met a year ago, in late February of 2020. Richmond won 95-71, covering by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, look for the Spiders to pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. With the Wizards on a bit of a roll and the Lakers short-handed, we're getting a far lower line than we normally would. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wizards still have issues and the Lakers still have Lebron. Speaking of Lebron, he's going to be highly motivated to show that he can still get it done, sans Davis. The last time that the Lakers dropped two in a row, they responded by beating Boston, on the road. The last time that they faced the Wizards, they won by 22. Lebron had 23 points and 11 assists and took the fourth quarter off. Look for him to lead the way once again, the champs bouncing back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders have had this one circled. You may recall that the Cowboys upset them, in OT, back on the second day of January. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry for this one. The last time that the Raiders lost two in a row, they responded with a win and cover on the road, at LSU. Note that Texas Tech is 10-4 SU/ATS the past 14 times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Cowboys, who have lost some players since the first meeting, are just 9-14 ATS the past 23 times that they were road underdogs of three or less. Lay the points with the revenge-minded visitors. 

I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. After a dreadful homestand, the Kings will be happy to hit the road. In fact, they've been better on the road overall this season. They're 7-3 ATS (5-5 SU) through 10 games, away from Sacramento. The Bulls, on the other hand, are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) at home. While the Kings had last night off, the Bulls are off a hard-fought loss at Philadelphia. The Kings know that this road trip gets a lot tougher after this, as their next two games are at Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Armed with this knowledge, they know that they desperately need to stop the bleeding tonight. They won big here (98-81 with a line of 2) last season. Schedule in their favor, I expect another win and cover this evening. 

I'm playing on TENNESEE STATE. Sometimes, all is takes is one win to get a team going. The Tigers finally snapped their losing streak with a win and cover last time out. I expect that victory to provide a spark and I look for them to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game. I also believe that they're providing excellent value. Consider that the line was -7 for the earlier meeting and that was AT Jacksonville State. Despite playing on the road, the Tigers gave the Gamecocks all they could handle. Jacksonville State won by a single point. The Tigers won both last season's meetings, too. This is a team they feel very comfortable playing against. The Tennessee State defense does a very good job at forcing opponents to turn the ball ove. In fact, they do so on 23.1 % of all possessions, the 28th-best rate among Div. I teams. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, ranks 303rd in that category, forcing turnovers on just 16.7% of possessions. The Gamecocks are off a loss and they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were favored on the road, in the -6.5 to -9 range. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Tigers score the outright win. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Thunder are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bucks are feeling like I am right now. Mad. Angry about losing, enough is enough. The skid ends here. Not only have the Bucks dropped an unheard of five in a row, one of those losses came against these same Thunder. The Bucks are still 16-7-1 ATS (18-6 SU) the past 24 times that they were off a double-digit loss though, 4-2 ATS this season. During that span, they're also 32-17 ATS (37-12 SU) when off an "upset" loss. Playing the second of b2b games may be just what the doctor ordered, too. The last time that the Bucks played their second game in two nights resulted in a 124-99 victory. Speaking of "blowouts," the Bucks also struggled at OKC (won by 2, laying -9) a bit last season. However, when the teams met here, almost exactly one year ago, the Bucks crushed the Thunder by 47 points. Look for them to "get healthy" at OKC's expense tonight. 

I'm playing on Purdue Fort Wayne. To their credit, the Vikings have played well this season. They still don't score that many points though, as they average only 69.7 ppg. On the road, that number dips to 65.4. Meanwhile, they allow 71.7 on the road. That makes laying points on the road a tough task. Off four straight road games, the Mastadons are going to be very happy to return home. They score a healthy 78.7 ppg here, while allowing 78.4. While the Vikings connect on 41.8% of their field goals, the Mastadons have a 46% field goal percentage. In conference play, the climbs above 47%. After a string of non-covers, the Mastadons broke through with a cover (2 point loss) at Youngstown State last time out. Note that Fort Wayne is 5-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. These teams met twice earlier in the season, the Vikings won both but each was decided by single-digits. The first of those, a 2-point Clev. State win, saw the Mastadons favored by -2 points. Now, we're getting a handful of points. I believe thats providing excellent value and while I'm expecting the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE STATE. The Tigers haven't been covering. However, a date with the rival Golden Eagles is just what the doctor ordered. The Eagles have dropped 14 straight on the road. They've been outscored in those games by an average of 78.2 to 63.5. While the Eagles are 0-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of three or less, the Tigers are quietly a perfect 3-0 ATS as home favorites of three or less. Tech won by three, at home, in this season's earlier meeting. However, the Tigers won by 15 in the last game played here, almost exactly a year ago. Expect the revenge-minded Tigers to break through with another victory today, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gamecocks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. South Carolina has been hit hard by Covid and has missed a lot of games, as a result. Its started to catch up with the Gamecocks; they've lost three straight and seven of their last nine. Don't expect the Vols to show them any mercy. Off a loss of their own, the Vols are going to be all business. The last time that they were off a loss, the Vols went on the road and beat Kentucky by nine points. Tennessee outscores teams by a 76.7 to 60.8 margin at home. Meanwhile, South Carolina gives up 76.9 ppg on the road. While the on the road, the Gamecocks allow their hosts to hit 46.5% of their field goals. The Vols, on the other hand, hold visitng teams to a 39.4 field goal percentage. Expect that vastly superior defense to prove the difference as the Vols pull away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Embid was a late scratch on Monday. That surely didn't help the 76ers' cause at Utah. As of this writing, it appears promising (currently probable) that Embid will be back for tonight's game. However, with or without him, the 76ers have more than enough to take care of Houston. Indeed, a home game vs. the Rockets is much different than a road game against the Jazz. The Rockets have dropped six straight games. They're getting outscored by a 120.4 to 101.4 average score over their last five games, four of those five resulting in double-digit losses. The 76ers have the best home record in the East and are tied for the fewest home losses in the league. Expect a highly motivated effort and for them to win this one in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Jazz have been on an extended run and continue to play well. However, tonight, they'll be without Conley and taking on a very good Philadelphia team, one which is anxious to close out its trip on a winning note and one which always plays them tough. Note that the 76ers have the best record in the East, the only Eastern Conference team currently winning more than 60% of its games. Also, note that the Jazz are 0-4-1 ATS their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The 76ers beat the Jazz by nine at Phily last season and they lost by only two, here at Utah. Including those results, the 76ers are 6-0 ATS the last six in the series, the 2-point loss and five outright wins. With the 76'ers last three games all decided by single digits, this figures to be another close one. Look for the 76ers to give the Jazz all they can handle with a great shot at another outright win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Two of the past four meetings between these rivals have been decided by four points or less. I beleve these teams are very evenly matched and I'm expecting another close one this evening. The Huskies haven't won for awhile. However, they lost by only three against UCLA last time out and a date with the Cougars provides reason for hope. Indeed, this is a team they have a real chance of beating. WSU, which lost by nine on Saturday, is just 1-4-1 ATS (1-5 SU) the past six times it played with one or less day's rest in between games. The Huskies come in absolutely hungry for a conference victory and looking to avenge an earlier loss at Washington. Grab the points and look for them to improve to 10-6 ATS the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. I like what I've seen from the Mavs recently. They've won four straight and are getting stronger. Over their last five games, they're averaging a whopping 127.6 points. After eking out wins over Golden State and Minnesota, they rallied from a big deficit to beat Atlanta two games ago. Then, last time out, they pounded the Pelicans, putting up 143 points in the process. Doncic and Porzingis were unstoppable. The Blazers have also been playing well, as they're off three straight wins. Those were all at home though. Their last road game resulted in a double-digit loss at MSG. Though the Blazers beat them in the bubble last summer, the Mavs won by eight when the teams played here at Dallas. Expect another win and cover this evening, the Mavs improving to 5-2 ATS when off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA STATE. The Beavers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Not only are the Sun Devils angry after getting beaten up by Oregon, they also haven't forgotten the earlier 1-point loss at Oregon State. That result notwithstanding, the Sun Devils are the more talented team in this matchup. Playing at home and highly motivated to bounce back with a victory, I expect them to demonstrate it on Sunday evening. Prior to the 1/16 game, the Sun Devils had beaten the Beavers four straight times. Five of the Beavers' last six losses have been by a minimum of nine points. Payback time. 

I'm playing on NORTHERN IOWA. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Panthers in this one. Both teams lost big last time out but Northern Iowa is much better equipped to bounce back. The Panthers have won six of the past seven meetings. Each of the past three resulted in double-digit wins for the Panthers. Te Crusaders are averaging only 61.8 ppg on the road and they may not even get that many today. Last game, they scored 52, while giving up 76. That was at home. Their last two road games have seen them score 51 and 52 points, respectively. The Crusaders also managed just 51 points the last time that these teams met. The fact that Northern Iowa has struggled at the betting window has helped keep this line reasonable. That changes today, the Panthers keeping the pedal to the metal and pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs have started to win, they just haven't been covering. Tonight, however, a SU win should also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. I really liked what I saw from the Mavs last game. They were down big to Atlanta but rallied to win the game by a point. While that wasn't enough for the cover, it was enough to build positive momentum for this game. I successfully played against the Pelicans in their last game, a double-digit loss at Chicago, and noted that they haven't been playing well on the road. The Mavs have dominated the Pelicans franchise here for years and they did so again last season. Expect homecourt to prove significant as the Mavs win their fourth straight.