I'm playing on LA. This series is over. The Lakers know it and deep down, though they would never admit it, I believe that the Heat know it, too. The Heat played a great Game 4 and it still wasn't enough. As I expected, the Lakers elevated their defensive intensity, holding the Heat to a mere 96 points. Specifically, Davis slowed down Butler, a huge factor not seen in the boxscore. Unfortunately, the Lakers only managed 102 themselves, which meant that a "meaningless" Miami 3-pointer in the final second of the game, cost them the cover. That shot aside, I like that I saw from the Lakers. Now, they smell the blood in the water. Its been a long time in the bubble and they're anxious not to extend that time any longer. The Lakers got "only" 50 combined points from James and Davis in Game 4. Those two superstars are both capable of getting that many themselves. I expect the two stars to combine for more than 50 in this one, the Lakers continuing their dominant defense, en route to a win, cover and title. 

I'm playing on LA. I really didn't think that the Heat would go down without a fight. Jimmy Butler made sure that they didn't. All Butler did, in willing his team to victory, was put up the third 40-point-triple-double in NBA Finals history. Butler would finish with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. As you know, the series now sits at 2-1. It wasn't just Butler, the entire Miami team outworked the Lakers. That said, the Heat can't expect a super-human effort from Butler every night. The Lakers have received their wake-up call and they're not going to get outworked again. The last thing that they want to do is give this young Miami team more hope than it has. I expect Lebron, Davis and co. to be entirely focused from the opening tip and I look for them keep the pedal to the metal, in terms of intensity, the entire way. Butler will get points but the Lakers will make sure he doesn't have a repeat performance from Game 3. This year's Heat are just 4-11-1 ATS when off an upset win. Going back further finds Miami at only 20-38-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. Lay the points and expect James and Davis to deliver a statement. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. This is it for the Heat. They obviously can't afford to go down 0-3. (No team has come back from down 3-0.) They need to leave everything on the floor in this game and thats exactly what I expect them to do. Clearly, the Lakers are an excellent team. Still, they played a near-flawless game and couldn't pull away from the Heat. The Heat actually outscored the Lakers by four points in the second half and finally started playing the type of defense (held LA to 21 in the 4th) that they need to, in order to compete. They obviously aren't going to be able to shut down Davis entirely. Still, the expected return of Bam Adebayo, their best defender, will at least help slow him down. Still 12-4-1 ATS in these playoffs, look for the Heat to build off their strong second half in Game 2, playing their best game of the series and earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on LA. The Heat have been on a great run and have taken down some good teams. They haven't faced a team with the size, talent and playoff experience like the Lakers though. Indeed, the Lakers are a far more complete team than the ones which Miami has faced and they come in on a mission. Both teams won big in closing out the Conf. Finals. LA beat Denver by 10 while Miami defeated Boston by a dozen. However, the Heat are just 11-16 ATS off a double-digit win, an ugly 20-37-3 ATS (24-36 SU) their past 60 in that situation. During that span, the Lakers were a much better 35-26-3 ATS (45-19 SU) off a double-digit win. The Lakers took both regular season meetings, the wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. Expect Lebron, Davis and co. to start things with a statement win. 

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. The Nuggets continue to hang around and they deserve credit for their Game 3 win. Still, this is not the Clippers that they're playing. These Lakers are an extremely talented and determined team, on a mission to get to and win the Finals. The Nuggets got a huge Game 3 from Grant but they can't count on a repeat performance from him and lack a reliable third scoring option. The last time that the Lakers lost, they responded by winning six straight games, the first five of those victories all coming by a minimum of eight points. Off their prior loss before that, the Lakers responded with four straight wins. All victories came by a minimum of eight points. Expect the Lakers to respond once again, delivering a statement double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets have surprised a lot of people, myself included. This is an entirely different matchup though. I expect their exhausting comeback against the Clippers to catch up with them against a rested and determined Laker team. Lebron and co. watched what Denver did to the Clippers and will not be taken by surprise or come in thinking this will be easy. Expect the Lakers to be fully focused, determined to seize control of this series right out of the gate. Since these teams played a close one on 8/10, the Lakers have won eight games. All eight of those victories came by a minimum of eight points. I expect a double-digit statement win in this one. 

I'm playing on LA. Give the Nuggets a lot of credit for hanging around. However, I believe that the Clippers will prove to be too much for them today. LA is a ridiculous 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS when off an upset loss. Friday's loss was just the sixth for LA since returning to play. The Clippers followed up all five previous losses with a victory and they won those five games by an average of 17 points, three of those coming by 13 or more. They're the more complete and talented team and I see them pulling away for another double-digit win this afternoon. 

I'm playing on LA. The Nuggets hung around for the cover last game. However, I believe that the Clippers are the more complete team and I expect them to pull away in this one. Both teams have allowed a nearly identical number of points, per playoff game. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 112.8 ppg in the playoffs while the Clippers have allowed 112.9. However, on the other side of the ball, Denver is averaging just 108.6 while LA is averaging a whopping 121.6. Even with the non-cover last time out, the Clippers are still 38-29-1 ATS (50-18 SU) when laying points. The Clippers won by 23 in the first one. I'm expecting another double-digit win tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I've had a pretty good read on this series. Through the course of the six games, I've successfully backed both the Thunder AND the Rockets. I've also won with both the 'under' AND the 'over.' Last game, we saw a scrappy OKC team which refused to quit, when facing elimination. OKC was the more desperate team and played like it. However, in Game 7, both teams will be "equally hungry." Throw out that motivational edge which they enjoyed in Game 6 and I believe that the Thunder are overmatched. Paul had a fantastic Game 6, turning back the clock. He's still very capable. However, he's not Harden and his supporting cast is prone to struggling. While the Thunder have to work hard for many of their buckets, the Rockets can often score with relative ease. While the Thunder are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were tied in a playoff series, the Rockets are 4-2 ATS when tied in a series, during the same span. When this series was tied at 2-2, Houston won by 34. I say the cream rises to the top once again, the superior team (Rockets) digging deep and advancing while covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on OKC. After Saturday's blowout win by Houston, most are writing off the Thunder. That sentiment, in turn, has led to a generous pointspread. I feel that's providing excellent value with what I believe will be an extremely determined OKC team. Keep in mind that the Thunder tend to thrive as underdogs. Even factoring in Saturday, they're 50-30 ATS their last 80, when getting points, 27-14 ATS on the season. Prior to Saturday, the Thunder had beaten the Rockets twice in a row. They still believe that they can do it. The OKC offense will be much better in this one, as the Thunder shot terribly Saturday and can only improve. Backs to the wall, expect the Thunder to give the Rockets all they can handle, taking this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright upset. 

I'm playing on LA. The Blazers pulled off the upset in Game 1 and are clearly as dangerous a #8 seed as we've seen in a long time. Probably ever. Lebron and co. aren't about to just roll over though. The Blazers were still 37-39 on the season as compared to LA's 52-20. Their Game 1 win/cover notwithstanding, the Blazers are still just 14-20-2 ATS as underdogs. Lebron didn't get the help from his supporting cast that Lillard did in the opener. I expect that to change in Game 2. And, if it doesn't, I expect James to take matters into his own hands, willing his way back in the series, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. Obviously, I respect the Raptors. They've got talent, playoff experience and they're very well coached. That said, this is a lot of points and the Nets have been playing very hard. They've covered four straight and six of seven. The last two meetings between these teams saw Brooklyn win by 10 points and Toronto win by only one. While the Nets have thrived in the underdog role, the Raptors are just 3-8-1 ATS the past 12 times that they played with two days rest in between games. Grab the points and don't be surprised when the Nets give the champs a tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. While the bubble experience has NOT been a good one for the Grizzlies, they still control their own destiny. All they need to do is win this game and they're into the 8/9 play-in-series. If they lose, the Grizzlies would need plenty of help as they'd also require the Suns and Spurs to lose. Needless to say, they don't want to rely on that. As Coach Jenkins said: “I told the guys we’ve got one game left, we’ve got to try to find a way to play our best game at this point. We’ve got to lay it on the line. Whatever’s been in the past is in the past.” The Bucks have already secured top spot in the East. I say Memphis "finds a way."

I'm playing on OKC. The Suns have obviously been great in the bubble. However, lets not forget that the Thunder still boast the superior record. The Thunder still won both previous meetings this season. While the Suns are 12-17 ATS as favorites, the Thunder are 24-12 ATS as underdogs. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 47-26 ATS, when getting points, the past few seasons. The Thunder did play yesterday but it was a relatively easy win, as they were up big by halftime. Meanwhile, while OKC gets tomorrow off, the Suns will have a showdown against the 76ers. The Thunder are 16-8-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line of 220 or above. Grab the points and expect AT LEAST another cover Monday afternoon. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Clippers sat their top weapons down the stretch against the Blazers yesterday, seemingly not interested in winning - or perhaps even trying to give Portland the 8th spot, as that hurts the Lakers more. Yet, they won anyway. With games against Western Conf. opponents (Denver and OKC) on deck, I don't see them being highly motivated to win this one in a blowout. Yes, the Nets have now clinched a spot and will be a little short-handed themselves. However, unlike the Clippers, they had yesterday off. They can take a page out of LA's book about how to keep fighting with the backups in, too. With the Clips at 3-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b days, I say this one proves closer than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Suns have gotten off to a great start here. I believe it comes to an end here though and that the Pacers, who have also gotten off to a great start of their own, are favored for good reason. In fact, that great start for the Suns has worked in our favor, keeping this line a little lower than it could easily have been. Remember, the Pacers are 42-26 while the Suns are 29-39. The Suns allow 113.9 ppg while the Pacers allow just 107.5. Speaking of those records, the Suns are still 10-20 SU their last 30 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 31-9 SU (24-14-2 ATS) their last 40 against sub-500 teams. The Pacers won by 25, at Phoenix, in this season's earlier meeting, holding the Suns to a mere 87 points. I expect another win and cover this afternoon. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Spurs are off a hard-fought win, a game which came down to the wire, against the Grizzlies. While the Spurs have been solid this season, when playing the second of b2b games, this is a unique situation, being that they're still recently back to play. Remember, this will also be the Spurs' third game in four days. That said, I expect yesterday's game to take a toll on them today. The 76'ers, 6-4 SU/ATS when off a loss, allow 107.7 ppg compared the Spurs' 114.9 ppg allowed. I believe that superior defense combined with the scheduling advantage, will ultimately prove the difference. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This is a huge game for both teams. The Spurs won their first game back while the Grizzlies dropped theirs, in OT. Memphis is still in the driver's seat though and knows it just needs to take care of its own business. I liked what I saw from the Grizzlies, despite the loss. Coach Taylor Jenkins agreed, noting: "I thought our guys executed beautifully on the offensive end. The message (for) our guys is to keep our heads up — we’ve got to learn from this and get better for the next game on Sunday...." The reality is, in my opinion, that the Spurs will not be going to playoffs this season. Expect the Grizzlies, who have taken two of three meetings, to take care of business once again, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. While the Bucks may be the favorite for this game and to win the East, I believe the Celtics should have an advantage in this one. The Bucks closed their practice facility due to corona virus. As of this writing, they are not expected to reopen prior to leaving for Orlando. The Bucks are also scheduled to arrive in Orlando a day later than Boston, as the Celtics are among the first batch of teams scheduled for travel. Once in Orlando, all players will have to remain in their hotel rooms until they test negative on consec. days, 24 hours apart. So, the Celtics should have had more practice time prior to traveling to Orlando and they'll also get out of their rooms first. The Celtics won the first meeting, way back in October and the Bucks won by only five, in January. The Celtics are very well-coached and I look for them to take this entire experience seriously. Center Daniel Theis had this to say: "I know that our team, our players are going to follow the rules ..." I expect a focused Boston team and I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes won this season's previous meeting by 22 points. I expect another double-digit win this evening. The Cougars know they're outclassed in this one. With six losses in their past seven, they don't have much confidence. Having already played their last three on the road and understandably concerned about the coronavirus back home in Washington, its going to be tough to get the Cougars to play up to Colorado's level. Their last two losses came by a combined 30 points. Note that the Cougars are just 7-17 SU/ATS the past 24 times that they were off b2b conference losses. The Buffaloes come in on a losing streak of their own. Unlike the Cougars, they still believe that they can make some noise in this tournament. They've got a clear talent edge in this one and I expect them to demonstrate it. 

I'm playing on UTSA. The Blazers have the better record and the higher seed. However, I believe that the Roadrunners are the more talented team and I expect them to prove it now that it really matters. UTSA is led by a pair of excellent guards. Jhivvan Jackson leads the conference – and ranks second in the entire country – with 27.2 points per game. He also supplies 5.8 rebounds per game. That ranks second best in the nation among players six-feet and under. He has scored 20 or more points in 27 of 31 games. He scored 30 or more a dozen times, including a pair of 40+ point explosions. While Jackson received first team All Conference honors for the second straight season, his teammate Keaton Wallace earned second team honors. Wallace averaged 18.5 ppg after putting up 20.2 ppg the previous season. Wallace plays a lot of minutes, gets to the line and hits from downtown. In other words, the Roadrunners backcourt is in great shape. I expect that elite backcourt to make the difference in this one. UTSA is 3-0 SU/ATS its past three, when coming in off b2b conference losses. UAB, on the other hand, is 0-5 SU/ATS, its past five, when playing on a neutral court with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. Roadrunners get it done!

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks were on the right side of a double-OT game here against Charlotte on Monday. Those are the type of wins which a team can build positive momentum from. A visit from the road-weary Knicks, who were involved in a track meet at Washington yesterday, figures to be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to do just that. Note that the last time that the Knicks played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine. Including that result, the Knicks are an ugly 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The lone 'push' was a 5-point loss, here at Atlanta. That was also the lone 'push' in the Hawks 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) record as home favorites. Schedule in their favor, expect the Hawks to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Off three straight losses, the last two coming on the road, a home date with the Hornets is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks. The Hawks haven't been favored all that often here this season but they've made the most of those opportunities, when they have come up. In fact, prior to a loss here a week ago as a small home favorite against Memphis, the Hawks had been 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS when listed as a home favorite. Its also worth noting that the Hawks are 4-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in their previous three or more games. The Hornets have quietly covered six in a row. They're just 7-13 ATS over the years after having covered their previous five or more, 2-4 ATS after having covered their previous six. The Hawks, who won by 15 in this season's previous meeting, are 5-1 ATS when having trailed their previous game by 20 or more at halftime. Going back further finds them at 10-4 ATS their last 14 in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Monday evening. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. Its early in the conference tournament schedule but we've already seen some upsets. Don't expect to see another here. The Raiders are the #1 seed for good reason. Wright State outscores teams by a 81.4 to 70.7 margin, by far the best in the Horizon. The Flames, on the other hand, get outscored by an average of 69.1 to 69. Their 69 points per game ranks as the third worst number in the Horizon. The Raiders probably overlooked the Flames the first time these teams met and it led to Illinois- Chicago scoring the upset. The rematch was an entirely different story though as a superior Wright State team won 75-58. Including that victory, the Raiders have won 47 of 60 conference games. The Raiders, 5-1 ATS in the Horizon Tournament the past two seasons, will know not to overlook the Flames this time. Expect them to pull away for another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on OREGON. The Cardinal are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Playing perhaps their best basketball of the season, the Ducks come in on a roll. This was an Oregon team which was loaded with talent but also one which had a lot of roster turnover from last season and which needed some time to learn to work together. The well-coached Ducks have had that time and are now peaking at the right time. After a loss at Stanford on Feb. 1, the Ducks lost at Oregon State. However, since that time, they've won five of six, including three straight. The Ducks followed up a 1-point win against Arizona by avenging the loss against the rival Beavers with a 15-point blowout. Next, they destroyed Cal by 34. Now, on Senior Day, they will have payback on their minds from the loss at Stanford. They catch the Cardinal off a close 3-point loss at Oregon State. When these teams played here last season, the Ducks were favored by six. They won by 23. This season, Stanford averages less than 70 ppg on the road while Oregon averages more than 80 at home. Not only did the Ducks score 90 last game, they allowed just 56. They're 22-8 ATS their last 30, after allowing 60 or fewer points. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. After getting embarrassed by the Clippers last game, the Rockets will be looking to take out their frustration on someone. Facing a team which they have dominated, I expect them to do exactly that. A look at the recent meetings between these teams reveals that the Rockets have won the last seven. Five of the last six victories, including each of the past two, have come by double-digits. Off b2b very close losses, the Hornets, 9-20 at home, are vulnerable to getting blown out here, in my opinion. Those close losses can take a toll. (The Hornets are 1-6 SU off a loss of three or less.) The Rockets are 13-5 SU the past 18 times that they were off a loss of 15 or more points, including 3-1 SU/ATS the past four. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they were off a game where they trailed by 15 or more at halftime. Expect them to be all business from the opening tip in this one. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE. The Sycamores are the higher seed but now that it really matters, I believe that the Bears will prove to be the better team. The Bears are peaking at the right time, playing their best basketball of the season. When these teams met on 2/1, the Bears were mired in a slump. Indiana State won. Since that time, however, the Bears have gone 5-3 including a win against these same Sycamores. Last time out, they hammered Southern Illinois by a score of 84-59. Its no coincidence that this Missouri State team got better with the addition of senior (walk-on) Ross Owens. As Owens noted: "We're playing better. We're winning. Everybody on the team is working for the same goal, and that's winning." Bears get it done. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I really like how this one sets up for the Wizards. They're off a blowout loss at Portland to close out a 1-3 trip out West. Now, however, they're back home for what is expected to be a track meet with the Hawks. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 246.5. That suits the Wizards just fine; they're 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 230 or greater. While the Wizards have tomorrow off, the Hawks, 10-18 ATS (6-22 SU) as road underdogs, have a game against Memphis tomorrow. Considering that those same Grizzlies just hammered them 127-88 at Atlanta, thats a game that the Hawks could easily get caught looking ahead to. These teams have split this season's first two meetings. In both cases, the home team won by double-digits. Expect another win and cover for the home team in this one. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Talk about lack of respect. The Rockets are 21-8 at home while the Clippers are 17-13 on the road. Yet, the oddsmakers are telling us its a coin-flip (pick'em) game. Just needing to win, I feel that the Rockets are offering us excellent value. While the Clippers could easily get caught looking ahead to a showdown vs. the Lakers, the Rockets have Charlotte on deck. Nothing to get caught looking ahead to there. The Rockets have taken two of three meetings on the season and they're 16-9 SU/ATS against winning teams overall. They won the earlier game here by nine. Even with a loss to open the month, they're a dominant 26-5 in the month of March the past two seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on DRAKE. While these teams split the regular season meetings, both winning at home, I believe that the Bulldogs bring more to the table in this matchup. Note that Drake is 10-2 ATS its last 12 on a neutral court and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark as a neutral court favorite of six or less. Illinois State does check in off a win at Evansville but is just 3-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a win as an underdog. The last time that the Redbirds played back-to-back games away from home, they lost by 20. Bulldogs get it done, setting up a rematch with top-seeded Northern Iowa in the quarters. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Pacers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Yes, I won with the Pacers when these teams played a few weeks ago. However, that was at Indiana and the Bucks were without the league's best player. Here's an excerpt from what I said that day: "While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight." Of course, things are different now. The Bucks are back home and Giannis is back. When the Bucks hosted the Pacers earlier, they won by a score of 117-89. Off a loss and playing with revenge, the Bucks are going to be more dangerous than ever. They're 14-6 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were off a road loss, in a game where they were favored. Overall, they're 32-12 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an upset loss, 13-3 ATS off an upset loss by double-digits. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers already hammered the Gophers at Minnesota, a 68-56 win. Knowing that they need to take care of business to stamp their ticket to the Big Dance, I expect the Hoosiers to take care of business once again. To their credit, the Gophers have played better recently. However, they're off b2b heartbreaking losses, losing by a single point against Maryland and then by just two at Wisconsin. That Maryland loss really stung, as they blew a huge lead (up 16 at half) and lost on a 3-pointer with less than two seconds to go. Then, to go and lose another really close one against the Badgers, has to take a toll. I expect them to be emotionally drained. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Hoosiers as they complete the series sweep, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. These teams are very evenly matched and they've already played two really close games against each other this season. In both cases, the road team won. The Penguins won by four at Milwaukee. The Panthers won by two, here at Youngstown State. So, they know that they can win here. I'm expecting another close one, as they teams open tournament play. The Youngstown State defense isn't good and that makes covering points difficult. The Penguins are 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were home favorites of six or less. They're also 9-16 ATS their last 25, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. They've won just seven of their last 34 games played in the month of March. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS their last 10, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. In what should be another close one, grab the points.

I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Blazers won't get Lillard back for this one, as they had hoped earlier in the week. Of course, this is reflected in the line, as we wouldn't be getting the Blazers as a big underdog otherwise. While its possible he'll be back next game, the Blazers can't wait for their star. They need this game to salvage at least something from their trip. They've fallen back in the West and can't afford to fall back any further. The Magic are a team which they can absolutely compete with. While Orlando is 5-5 its past 10 games, none of the five wins came by more than 10 points. Two came by less than five. Last time, the Magic lost by one. This one could easily also come down to the wire and this is a lot of points to be getting. Note that Portland has won the last six meetings with the Magic. The last time that Orlando won a game in the series was January of 2017 and that win came by only six. Looking back further finds that Orlando has won seven of the past 20 meetings but that none of those wins came by more than 10. Beating the Blazers is never easy for them and they'll be facing a desperate team in this one. Yes, the Magic would obviously like to avenge a December loss in Portland. However, they're just 7-19-4 ATS their past 30 in the revenge role. That includes an ugly 1-18-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge from a road loss. So, thats not exactly a motivator for them! With a 20-7 record their past 27 against teams from the Southeast, look for the Blazers to bring their best effort, at least taking this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Buffaloes may be slight underdogs here but I believe they've got more talent and I absolutely expect them to come away with the victory. The Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS off a SU loss and 10-5 ATS off an ATS loss. Having dropped two straight (and three straight against the number) they're going to be a highly determined team. Note that Colorado is 2-0 SU/ATS as a road underdog of three or less. While it wins games with its defense, Colorado, which scored 81 when these teams met at Boulder, still averages more than 71 ppg. Thats noteworthy as the Cardinal are 0-7 when they allow 68 or more. I say the Buffs bounce back.

I'm playing on UC IRVINE. The Anteaters are playing great basketball. They've won nine of their last 10. The lone loss came against these same Gauchos, at UC Santa Barbara. Tonight, its payback time. The Gauchos may be without leading scorer Max Heidegger, as he went down with a left ankle injury midway through the first half of their last game. UCSB head coach Joe Pasternack had this to say: "It was terrible to see Max go down ..." Either way, I expect them to struggle against the Anteaters. The Anteaters only give up only 60.9 ppg at home and will absolutely make scoring difficult for the Gauchos, who have failed to hit the 50 mark in two of their last three visits here. The last three games here between these teams have seen the Anteaters win by scores of 83-70, 69-49 and 64-47. Expect another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. While the Spurs will be without Aldridge, they've still got more than enough to take care of business at home against an Orlando team which is playing its second game in two days. Yes, Aldridge does a lot. DeRozan and co. can carry the load for a game which the Spurs badly need. It should be noted that Orlando is just 1-8 SU and 2-5-2 ATS, when playing its second game in two days. The Spurs, who have had the past couple of days off, play with revenge from an earlier 2-point loss at Orlando. They're 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Prior to the 2-point loss, the previous meeting between these teams saw San Antonio win by 39. While the Spurs likely won't win by that many tonight, I do expect them to ultimately pull away for another comfortable victory. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. After losing 9-straight, the Huskies finally earned a victory last time out. It wasn't just any win either as they hammered Cal by a score of 87-52. Off that momentum-building blowout, the losing streak now in the rear-view mirror, I expect the Huskies to follow it up with another big win against their instate rivals. Note that one of those nine losses came at Washington State, the Cougars winning by a 79-67 score. Needless to say, the Huskies haven't forgotten. Prior to that 2/9 loss, the Huskies had beaten the Cougars four straight times. The last meeting here at Washington saw the Huskies win 85-67. The previous meeting here at Washingto resulted in a 80-62 win for the Huskies. Remember, Washington was ranked at one point and started the season with a win against #1 Baylor. This is a team with some talent. Expect the revenge-minded Huskies to salvage the series split with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Raptors recent destroyed the Pacers. The Pacers turned around and hammered the Hornets. So, that should mean that the Raptors beat the Hornets by even more, right? While its possible, that type of logic rarely works in sports handicapping. While those results have helped us by providing an extra generous line, this is an entirely new game and matchup. I expect the Hornets, who have since responded to the Indiana loss by beating NY, to give the champs a tough game. Note that the last time these teams met, the Raptors won by only two points. In fact, three of the past four meetings between these teams have been decided by two points or less. The Hornets have actually won four of six overall, too. A look at Toronto's last eight games reveals that only two resulted in wins of greater than 11. Grab the points and expect another close one. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Both teams lost on the road last night. The Knicks fought hard until the end but lost at Charlotte. The 76ers got blown out at Cleveland. While the Knicks' loss was "normal," the 76'ers' loss was unacceptable. There's no way they should get hammered by a team like Cleveland. Back home and still stinging from that loss, they should be ready to take out their anger on the Knicks tonight. The 76ers have actually won seven of their last eight, when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they were in that situation, they beat Memphis by 12. The last two times that the 76ers were off a double-digit loss, they immediately followed it up with a double-digit win. While they're without Simmons and likely Embid (having MRI today) the 76ers have more than enough talent and pride to bounce back once again. Expect them to do just that. 

I'm playing on UTAH. Tough spot for the Celtics. After a hard-fought game against the Lakers on Sunday, they played at Portland last night. That makes this their third road game in the past four days. Don't expect the Jazz to show them any sympathy. The Jazz, 15-5 SU and 12-6-2 ATS against teams from the East, have dropped three straight and they got embarrassed last time out, losing by 20 to the Suns, right here in front of their home fans. That's inexcusable. Like the Pacers last night, who were also off an embarrassing loss, I expect the Jazz to respond with a huge effort. Note that the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off an upset loss by 15 or more, when they were a home favorite. They're also 15-8 ATS (17-6 SU) the past couple of seasons, after failing to cover three or more consecutive games. Knowing that they'll face these same Celtics, at Boston, on 3/6, look for the Jazz to take advantage of the favorable schedule and to take care of business on their home floor.

I'm playing on PENN STATE. While I successfully played against the Nittany Lions in their last game, a 68-60 loss at Indiana, I'm coming right back with them in this one. Back at home and now off consecutive losses, the Lions are going to be in an angry mood. The fact that they already lost at Rutgers will only add to that. The Knights won their first road game of 2020, eking out a victory at Nebraska on 1/3. Since then, however, they've lost every single road game that they've played, going 0-5 SU in those games. In fact, that win at Nebraska was their only true road win all season. The bottom line is that the Knights are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The last time that Penn State played a home game, after having lost their previous two or more, they hammered Ohio State by a score of 90-76. Expect another double-digit win this evening. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hornets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Pacers were humiliated at Toronto on Sunday and are going to be in an extremely angry mood. Indeed, that was an ugly loss, as the champs beat them by 46. Thats noteworthy as Indiana is a profitable 10-4 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss of 20 or more points. That includes a 6-2 ATS mark when off a road loss of 20 or more. The Hornets are also off a pretty bad loss of their own, as Brooklyn beat them by 29, at Charlotte. They don't seem to have the same type of pride as the Pacers though, as they're just 1-6 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss of 20 or more. Going back further finds them at an ugly 11-29-1 ATS (9-32 SU) in that situation. The Pacers have won the last two meetings by double-digits and they won the last meeting here at Indiana by 22. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Off a disappointing and close loss at St. Joseph's, I liked how the Wildcats responded against Rhode Island. Though they narrowly missed out on the cover, they were able to pull off the OT victory. Thats the type of win they can build momentum from. Stepping down in class to face a weaker La Salle team, I expect the Wildcats to deliver a far more convincing victory. The last time that the teams played here, Davidson won by 19. While the Explorers have won their last two, those wins came against teams below them in the conf. standings, which is not the case here. Prior to the two wins, the Explorers had been mired in a 1-9 SU stretch, their most recent two losses coming by 15 and 27 points. The last time that the Explorers played the second of back-to-back road games, as they're doing here, they lost by 18. I say that the "good Davidson" shows up and delivers another beatdown. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Suns are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Jazz are going to be an angry team. They're 3-0 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss at home, in a game where they were favored. Going back further finds them at 9-4 ATS their last 13 in that situation. The Suns, on the other hand, are 8-14 ATS (5-17 SU) when off a victory. While they won a close one at Phoenix earlier, the Jazz have beaten the Suns 10 straight times here and those games haven't been close. Eight of those victories came by double-digits, including each of the past four. The Suns are just 5-12-1 ATS (4-14 SU) when attempting to avenge a loss of three of less. I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Jazz. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Jayhawks are laying a massive number here. Given the fact that they're going to be a tired team, after leaving it all on the floor to win at Baylor, I believe that number will prove to be too high. Bill Self had this to say of his players: "They are exhausted. They've got to be toast. Doke (Azubuike) and Marcus (Garrett) and Ochai (Agbaji) and 'Dot' (Devon Dotson) … those guys have gotta be toast with as many minutes as they played." After winning by 17 on Saturday, the Cowboys have won three of their last four. Though they did stumble at WVU, the Cowboys had covered their previous two on the road, including an 8-point loss at Baylor, a game where they were getting +12.5 points. Getting even more points against a tired Kansas team, expect the Cowboys to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on OKC. I won with the Thunder and I'm coming back with them again today. The Spurs won here earlier this month, after the teams had split this season's first two meetings, at San Antonio. However, even with their win here and a victory at Utah in their last game, the Spurs remain a poor 10-19 away from home. That makes OKC's 18-12 home record look pretty good. Note that the Spurs are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they were off two or more consecutive road wins. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS their last 25 in the revenge role. They're also 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were home favorites of six or less. Additionally, they're 10-2 ATS when off a double-digit win, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home win. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Nittany Lions come in with the better record. However, the Hoosiers have both homecourt and momentum on their side. Last time out, Penn State saw its winning streak snapped, losing at home against Illinois. Indiana, on the other hand, hammered Minnesota by double-digits, on the road, last time out. In their last home game, the Hoosiers handled Iowa, also by double-digits. Playing with revenge from a loss at Penn State and hungry for a win over a ranked opponent, I look for the Hoosiers to get it done once again. 

I'm playing on DUKE. The Hokies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting upset at NC State, the Blue Devils are going to be in an angry mood here and looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire game. After they're last loss, the Blue Devils were listed as a -19-point favorite against Miami in their next game. They won by 30. Speaking of Miami, the Hurricanes just dropped 102 points on the Hokies, at V-Tech. Note that the Hokies are 1-4 ATS when off an upset loss. They're 2-6 off a conf. loss overall. The Blue Devils are a dominant 18-4 ATS (20-2 SU) the past 22 times that they lost by double-digits in a game where they were favored, 11-2 ATS when off a double-digit loss in a game where they were favored by six or more. Expect this one to get ugly. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. You may recall that Doncic and Young were traded for each other on draft night, in 2018. So, they'll always be linked together and whenever they meet, its going to be a big deal. Both are having huge seasons and both were starters in the All Star Game. The Mavs won the earlier meeting, at Dallas. However, Doncic didn't play in that one and Young left partway through with an ankle injury. Tonight, both are ready to go. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect Young and the Hawks to have the advantage. Note that Young scored a career high 50 last time out, the Hawks winning outright against Miami. They since had yesterday off. The Mavs, on the other hand, will play their second game in two days. The Hawks have quietly won five of their last six games here overall, the lone loss coming by single digits. The only two teams to beat them here since 1/20 were Boston and Toronto and both those games were close. They've also beaten the Mavs six straight times here and seven of the last eight. While Doncic will surely do his thing, expect Young and co. to ultimately get (at least) the cover. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Both teams are currently struggling. Both will be looking for a win but I expect homecourt to prove the difference. While they haven't fared well overall at the betting window this season; this is one role which the Huskies have performed well in. They're 2-1 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points, 1-0 ATS as a home favorite of three or less. Tonight, they'll be looking to avenge an earlier 6-point loss at Stanford. The last time that the teams played here, the Huskies hammered the Cardinal by an 80-64 score. Stanford is just 3-7 ATS the past 10 times it was a road underdog of six or less. As disappointing as this season has been, the Huskies match up well against the Cardinal. In the earlier game at Stanford, the Huskies were up eight at halftime and they were up 12 with a little more than 10 minutes to go. They let that one get away but tonight, playing at home, look for them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that the Pistons are catching the Bucks at the right time. Fresh off the All-Star Game/Break, Giannis and co. may not be fully focused on the lowly Pistons. That's particularly true with a big home game against the 76'ers on deck. Yet, they're being asked to lay a massive number on the road. Note that they're just 1-3 ATS over the years, when favored by more than 12.5 points on the road. During that span, the Bucks are also an ugly 49-68-2 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, a 1-2 ATS mark their last three in that situation. The Pistons, who play with double-revenge, will be anxious to stop the bleeding and to avoid getting embarrassed, like what happened last time (12/4) the Bucks visited. Grab the generous points and expect the Pistons to give their guests a much tougher game than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Eagles are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Cavs haven't forgotten that BC beat them, at Boston College, last month. Remember, this is a BC team which the Cavs hammered 83-56 in last season's lone meeting. That was at BC, too. Now, finally catching the Eagles on their home floor, this one should also result in a blowout. The Eagles are 0-2 ATS off an upset win, within the conference, when listed as a home underdog. Overall, they're 2-5 ATS off a home win. Off b2b close wins, and now stepping down considerably in class, the Cavs are ready to deliver a beating. BC allows 72.9 ppg on the road while Virginia allows 48.4 ppg at home. Expect a rout. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. The Wildcats have struggled to cover of late. However, they can finally claim the "All-Time Big 5 Title" lead, with a win this afternoon and I fully expect a game against the rival Owls to bring out their best. Last meeting, Villanova pulled away for a double-digit (69-59) win. Not only are the Owls outclassed, they're 1-3 SU/ATS their last four, when off a conference win. They're also dealing with a few players who are playing at less than 100%. Wright this of Villanova's history and the importance of this game: "We talk to them about basketball history all the time and a big part of Villanova history is Big 5 history and living here in the city. We want them to respect Philadelphia basketball ..." I like that Nova checks in off a 1-point win over Marquette, as thats the type of victory a team can build momentum from. Look for the Cats to do exactly that this afternoon. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Beavers are going to face an angry bunch of Buffaloes on Saturday. Not only is Colorado angry about blowing its last game, at Oregon, but the Buffaloes also haven't forgotten that the Beavers upset them, at Boulder, back on January 5th. At the time, the Buffs may have been in letdown mode, off a big win over Oregon. That sure won't be the case this time though. Colorado is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that it was off a loss. Off their previous three 2020 losses, the Buffaloes won by scores of 91-52, 78-56 and 78-57. Last season, the Beavers also won at Boulder. Then, in the rematch, the revenge-minded Buffaloes went to Oregon State and, laying -2.5, won by a score of 73-58. Expect more of the same. 

I'm playing on SOUTH DAKOTA STATE. There's an obvious talent gap between these teams, as evidenced by their records and their places in the Summitt standings. The Pioneers are in last while the Jackrabbits are challenging for the top spot. The Jackrabbits have won seven straight in the series, winning by an average of 13 points. Tonight's margin of victory should be even greater. Denver has lost 11 straight on the road, getting outscored by an average of 82.2 to 66.7. Meanwhile, South Dakota State has won 13 straight at home, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 81.8 to 63.3. The Pioneers are 4-9 ATS their last 13 when attempting to avenge a loss and they're 1-4 ATS their last five when off an upset loss as a home favorite. The Jackrabbits have been money as home favorites all season long. No reason for them not to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way and win this one by 20+. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Clippers won a close one when these teams met at LA earlier. I believe homecourt will again prove the difference. While the Clippers are a mediocre 15-12 on the road, the Celtics are a dominant 22-5 at home. LA outscores teams by a 114 to 111.4 margin on the road. Boston outscores teams by a 115.9 to 105.9 margin here at home. The Clips are 3-5 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics are 6-4 ATS as home favorites of six or fewer points. With the Celts also 8-3 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a road loss, I'm laying the short number. 

I'm playing on UNLV. I won with Nevada when these teams faced each other at Reno a few weeks ago. I've included an excerpt from that writeup below. I noted that the Wolf Pack were in a good situation and that I liked that they were playing in Reno. Tonight's rematch, however, is at Thomas And Mack Center in Vegas and I fully expect that to favor the Rebels. Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS and 1-8 SU the past nine times it was a road underdog. The Rebels, on the other hand, are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) as home favorites. They're also 4-1 ATS the past five times that they played with revenge. I say its "payback time" in Vegas, tonight.

Writeup on Nevada on 1/22. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this battle of instate rivals. Off a loss against SDSU, Nevada is going to be angry. The Wolfpack won last year's games by 17, at UNLV and by 19 here, at Nevada. They were favored by -16.5 points for that game. While the gap between the teams has absolutely narrowed, I don't believe its done so enough to warrant such a huge different in the pointspread. The Wolfpack are still 7-2 at home this season and that includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of -6 or less. They're 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven in that role, dating back the past couple of years. During that span, the Pack are also 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 0-3 SU/ATS when off b2b double-digit conference wins. Nevada bounces back with an important win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. While the Bucks have shown that they can win without Giannis, they're obviously not as dangerous without him. He'll be out tonight, after the birth of his first child. I expect the Pacers to take full advantage of his absence. Yes, the Pacers are just 2-6 ATS their last eight. However, they're also 9-1 ATS the past 10 times that they had failed to cover six, or seven, of their previous eight games. During that span, the Pacers are also 13-6-1 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite, 2-0 ATS off b2b upsets as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS after b2b upset losses as favorites. Throw in the fact that the Pacers are 5-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss of 20 or more and the home team gets it done tonight. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. This is the first of two meetings between these teams this month. They'll close out February with a game at Boston on 2/29. Tonight's game, however, is at Houston and that favors the Rockets. The Celtics are an outstanding 25-9 at home but they're only 15-10 on the road. Likewise, the Rockets are 15-12 on the road but a much better 18-8 here at Houston. The Rockets swept last year's series, including a 14-point win here at Houston. The Celtics are off seven straight wins but they're just 1-3 ATS the past four times that they'd won their previous seven. Off b2b losses, the Rockets are going to be extremely hungry. Look for them to take care of business, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Consider that the Cavaliers were 17-point favorites when they hosted the Irish last season. Needless to say, we're getting the Cavs at a far lower line here. While the gap between the teams has narrowed, I don't think its done so enough to warrant such a massive line swing. That said, I feel that the relatively low line is providing us with excellent value. Off a loss at Louisville, Virginia is going to be hungry. The Cavs are 4-1 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a road loss. While the Cavs lost at Louisville, the Irish won at Clemson. Thats noteworthy as they're 0-6 ATS the past six times that they were off a conference road win. With the Irish also 3-8 ATS the past 11 times that they were off a win of six or fewer points, I'm laying the points with Virginia. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. This is a lot of points to be giving a capable Suns team, one which recently hammered Houston, one which is 11-7 ATS in the road underdog role. The Suns' last two losses have both come by single-digits. They're playing with double-revenge here, which should provide some added motivation. Both LA victories came by 10 points or less. The last time that the Lakers played at home, they lost by 10 against the Rockets. (The same Rockets that Phoenix handled.) Since then, they won by only five against the Warriors. The Suns have played them tough and I look for the Lakers to have their hands full again this evening. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Hawks have the schedule working in their favor. They had yesterday off while the Celtics are off a hard-fought win, at Detroit, less than 24 hours ago. This will now be the Knicks' third game in the past four days. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Knicks hammered them, at MSG, back in December. This is a NY team which they can beat and the Hawks are going to be itching for some payback. Expect them to improve to 20-14 ATS when playing with revenge from a game where the opposing team scored 110 or more. 

I'm playing on UCF. The Golden Hurricane have had better results than the Knights the past few weeks overall. However, momentum is a funny thing. Tulsa saw its winning streak snapped with a loss at UConn last time out. Meanwhile, UCF checks in off a win against East Carolina. Expect that loss to take some wind from Tulsa's sails while the win will provide the Knights with some positive momentum. The home team has won four straight in this series. The Knights won by two here last season after winning by 18 here the previous year. Expect homecourt to prove the difference once again, the Knights covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on UNLV. It wasn't long ago that the Rebels were alone in second place in the Mountain West. However, four straight losses have them in sixth. It should also have them extremely motivated for Saturday's game against Fresno State. Indeed, the Rebels need to take advantage of this winnable game. Keep in mind that the top five teams in the conference get a first-day-bye in next month's conference tournament. These teams played their conf. opener against each other. That one went to double-OT. Despite playing on the road and playing without two starting guards, the Rebels won that one. They're healthier now and playing at home. Expect a win and cover. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA TECH. The Hokies have struggled of late. However, they know this is an opportunity to right the ship and they know that they need to take advantage. I expect them to do just that. The Hokies' current 4-game skip started with a loss at Boston College, against these same Eagles. Needless to say, they'll be itching for some payback. I expect them to put up a fairly big number today and I don't believe that the Eagles will have the offensive firepower to keep up. Note that Boston College is 4-12 SU when the opposing team scores 60 or more and 0-7 SU when the opposing team scores 74 or more. Prior to the 1/25 loss, the Hokies had won five straight meetings with the Eagles, three of those by double-digits. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Blazers continued their impressive surge with a comeback with over the Spurs last night. Tonight, they'll take on a rested, motivated and revenge-minded Jazz team and I expect an exhausting recent schedule to catch up with them. Sure, the Blazers just beat the Jazz, when they were also playing their second game in two days. While that was impressive, it was also at Portland. Doing it here in Utah will be far tougher. The Jazz, 3-1 SU/ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge a double-digit road loss, allow just 103.8 ppg here. Note that this is also Portland's third game in the past four days, the first of those coming in the elevation of Denver. Endured in their worst losing streak in nearly four years, expect the desperate Jazz to give us their very best effort tonight, rising to the occasion with a double-digit win.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Zion Williamson, who is currently expected to play after reportedly spraining his toe last game, is obviously a special talent. However, he also brings a lot of hype and I believe his Pelicans are over-valued this evening. Consider that the Pelicans are a bigger favorite tonight than they were when they hosted the Bulls less than a month ago. Of course, the Bulls are a better team at home, than they are on the road. They just lost three straight but all those were on the road. Last time on this floor, they beat the Spurs. Note that Chicago is 6-3 ATS its last nine, when off three straight road losses and 7-3 ATS its last 10, when off b2b double-digit road losses. While the Bulls allow 106.2 ppg at home, the Pelicans allow 117.3 ppg on the road. The last two meetings here were both decided by six or less. I see this one also being close and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE. This is a huge game for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Not only are they fighting to make the Sun Belt postseason but this is a team which absolutely embarrased them already this season. Coach Bob Marlin said. "We have had a good rivalry with Georgia State. They have had the upper-hand in that most of the time. This is one we need to get." While the Panthers are tough at home, they're 1-3 ATS (and SU) as road favorites. Note that LA-Lafayette, which has covered its last three overall, won 76-72 when these teams met here last season. The Cajuns, who won 81-60 last time they were on this floor, are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Enough is enough. The T-Wolves badly need a win and the Hawks, the team with the worst record in the East, present them with the perfect opportunity to get one. The Wolves already won comfortably, at Atlanta. This is a team which they know they can beat. The Wolves' last loss came by just four, at Sacramento. Thats noteworthy as they're 5-2 ATS when off a loss by six or fewer points. Admittedly, home wins have been few and far between for Minnesota. Still, the Hawks, who are giving up an average of more than 125 ppg over their last five, are only 8-18 ATS (5-21 SU) on the road. Note that for Atlanta this game is sandwiched between a home-and-home set with the Celtics. I say the Wolves finally break through with a win and cover. 

I'm playing on PURDUE. Admittedly, the Hawkeyes are tough this year. Beating them will require the Boilermakers' very best effort. I believe thats what we'll get tonight. Purdue, which has battled inconsistency, badly needs to string together some wins, if it wants to get to the Big Dance. Remember, this Boilermaker team has beaten Virginia by a score of 69-40. They've beaten Michigan State by a score of 71-42 and they beat Wisconsin by a score of 70-51. Indeed, when this team is good, it can be really good. The Hawkeyes are just 6-16-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, as road underdogs, 7-20-1 ATS in road lined games overall. During that span, Purdue is 24-16 ATS (37-3 SU!) as a home favorite. Desperate for the victory, look for the "good Purdue" to show up, as homecourt proves the difference, the Boilers getting the win and cover. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While its been a tough stretch, the Vols are going to battle hard until the final buzzer under Coach Barnes. Note that the Vols are 8-1 (SU) the past nine times that they were off a double-digit loss and they're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four in that situation.  A win here would go a long way in turning their season around. I believe they're catching the Tide at the right time. Alabama is off b2b losses and its last win came by just three points. Last season's lone meeting was decided by just three points. I see this one also coming right down to the wire and am grabbing the points.

I'm playing on KANSAS. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Texas, the Longhorns may see some love from bettors here. Sure, Texas would love to avenge that loss. However, wanting to win and being able to win, are two entirely different matters. Indeed, if they couldn't beat the Jayhawks when playing at Texas, why should they be able to beat them here? Note that Texas is just 20-46 SU over the year, when attempting to avenge a home loss. That includes a 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) mark their past 10 in that situation. Sure, Texas is off b2b victories. However, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS this season, after winning their previous two (or more) games. The Jayhawks are off a 3-point win against Texas Tech, which wasn't enough to cover the spread. They're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS off a non-cover but SU win. Expect them to improve on those stats in blowout fashion tonight. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Winnable home games are few and far between for the Cavs these days. This is one that they can win and I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. The Cavs are currently 0-3 on their 4-game homestand. They're going to really want to salvage something and I expect a highly motivated effort. The fact that the Knicks hammered them here only a couple of weeks ago will provide even further incentive. Note that Cleveland is a solid 9-6-1 ATS its last 16, when attempting to avenge a home loss of 20 or more points. Off an upset of the Pacers, the Knicks should be ripe for a letdown. They're 3-5 ATS (2-6 SU) when off an upset (SU win as an underdog) win. Cavs roll. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. With the Pelicans suddenly a popular team, thanks to Zion Williamson, we now get the Rockets at a much lower line than we could have otherwise. I feel thats providing excellent value with the still superior team. Note that Houston is 17-12-2 ATS as a home favorite of six or less, the past 2+ seasons. Consider that the Rockets were laying -12 points the last time these teams met here. The last meeting overall was at New Orleans on 12/29 and the Pelicans hammered the Rockets. The Rockets haven't forgotten. Off a 7-point win against Dallas, note that Houston is 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) its last four off a division win and 16-8-2 ATS (21-5 SU) its last 26 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE. I really like the Panthers' chances of winning this one outright. After a slow start, the Panthers have won five of eight. This is a critical game for them if they want to compete with the top teams in the conference this season. While the Norse have been tough, this is their third straight on the road. Northern Kentucky does allow fewer points but the Wisc-Milwaukee scores considerably more at home than NKU does on the road. The Norse average 66.1 ppg on the road, the Panthers average 77.5 ppg at home. The Panthers are 8-5 ATS the past couple of seasons as home underdogs. Expect them to give their best effort and to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on MONTANA. This will be the 300th time that these two instate rivals will have taken the court against each other. Needless to say, its an intense rivalry. The series has been remarkably close. Montana leads 151-148. Thats thanks to a sweep last year and 17 wins in the 18 meetings. Indeed, the Grizzlies have dominated in recent seasons. I expect them to have the edge again this evening. Former Montana State player Danny Sprinkle is coaching in the rivalry for the first time. He's done a pretty good job thus far, given what he has to work with, but I expect this game to prove to be a reality check. Sprinkle said his team would be more defensive minded this season and thats been the case. However, the Bobcats don't score enough to keep up with the Grizzlies. MSU averages 64.8 ppg in Big Sky action this season while Montana averages 74.2. The Grizzlies connect on 48.1 fg percentage, top in the conference. The Bobcats are 10th at 41%. Playing at home, expect the Grizzlies to be able to dictate the tempo and ultimately for the Bobcats to be unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. I believe that this game will mean a lot to the Pistons. This will be the third time that Coach Casey has faced the Raptors, since Toronto won the NBA title. The first game was way back on 10/30. Still riding the high from their title, the Raptors won by a dozen. Then, in mid-December, the champs came in here and won by 13. Casey wouldn't be human if he didn't feel a bit of bitterness towards the Raptors, a team he had a lot of success coaching, before getting fired. I believe his players will play hard for him tonight. While the Pistons had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a game against the Cavs. Yes, the Pistons have failed to cover four in a row. However, the last time that they had failed to cover four straight, they responded with a double-digit win at Boston. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the Pistons' best effort tonight.

I'm playing on SIU - EDWARDSVILLE. This may not be the most exciting matchup on the Thursday card but that doesn't mean that it doesn't offer us value. The Governors have been on quite a roll and it should be easy for them to start patting themselves on the back. I believe the line has become inflated. Sure, the Cougars have lost nine straight in this series. However, those losses came by an average of 10 points, not 17. This is an experienced team led by its seniors. No team has beaten the Cougars by more than eight points since before Christmas. The Cougars are 12-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss. During that span, the Governors are 3-6 ATS when off two or more consecutive home wins. Look for this one to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs have already lost twice by 20 points to the Raptors this season. I feel that they'll be motivated to avoid having it happen for a third time. Both those previous games were at Toronto, this is the first meeting of the season here at Cleveland. The last time that the Raptors played here was last March. The Raptors were favored by -8.5 points but the Cavs won outright by 25. After that game, Love commented: "That was a great win for us. Especially against a real good team at home. It was fun." You may recall that game. Not only was it a major upset but there was a brawl. I feel it may have the Cavs a little extra fired up for tonight. The champs, who will be without Gasol for this one, are 0-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -12 point range. While Toronto plays at Detroit tomorrow, the Cavs have tomorrow off. Their full focus will be on tonight's game. I expect them to give the champs all they can handle with a real shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I won with them last game, the Hornets are not a good team. Back on the road, I expect them to stumble again. These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season. In each case, the home team won by seven points. For the game here at Washington, the Wizards were favored by six points. We're getting them at a lower number this evening and I feel thats offering very fair line value. After losing their last two games, both on the road, by 19 and 20 points, the Wizards are going to be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on someone. They're 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit losses and that includes a 3-1 ATS mark when off b2b losses of 15 or more points. While the Hornets average 100.9 ppg on the road, the Wizards average 115.2 ppg at home. Expect them to take advantage of the winnable game, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. While I'm happy to grab any points available, I expect the Blazers to win this one outright. I really liked what I saw from Portland in its win over Indiana. Lillard has been on fire of late and he's tough to stop when he gets on one of those rolls. Now, McCollum is also back. Speaking of injuries, Harden has missed the past two games for Houston and is a gametime decision. I'm not counting on him being out - but he could be at less than 100%, if he goes. Either way, I expect a highly determined effort from the Blazers. They are right on cusp of punting on the season or fighting for the playoffs. I don't think the players are ready to quit. They need this win and I expect them to dig deep and get it. Look for the Blazers to improve to 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off four or more consec. games where they gave up 110 or more points. 

I'm playing on XAVIER. With Markus Howard leading the way, the Golden Eagles are certainly tough. They hammered the Musketeers, at Marquette, just two weeks ago. Tonight's rematch is at Xavier, however, and the revenge-minded Musketeers are absolutely desperate for the type of quality win which they can earn here. The Golden Eagles lost by four at Butler last time out. While that will have some quick to back them to bounce back, note that they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a loss of six or less. Most recently, off a 1-point loss against Providence, Marquette followed it up with a 6-point loss at Seton Hall. The Musketeers are 9-6 ATS (11-4 SU) the past 15 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. Home wins have been hard to come by for the Hornets this season but this is a great opportunity for them to get one. While the Hornets haven't been good here, the Knicks have been even worse on the road. Charlotte gets outscored by an average score of 111.1 to 106.2 here. Not good. But the Knicks are much worse away from MSG, getting outscored by an average score of 113.8 to 103.6. Though they covered the big spread against the Bucks, the Hornets lost by double-digits for the third straight time. Thats only happened one previous time this season and they responded with a win and cover. They're now 4-1 ATS off two or more consec. double-digit losses. The Hornets are well rested and they dont play tomorrow. (The Knicks host Memphis tomorrow.) They're sole focus is on getting a rare win. I look for them to get it. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. While its been a tough stretch for the Wolverines, this is an excellent spot to "get healthy." The Wolverines still outscore opposing teams by an average score of 76.6 to 69.6. The Huskers, on the other hand, get outscored by an average score of 75.2 to 72.3. Michigan has beaten Nebraska 10 of the last 11 meetings. The last two saw the Wolverines win by scores of 82-53 and 77-58. Its true that the Wolverines are off a tough 64-62 loss, their fourth straight, at the hands of the Illini. Its also true that they're a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS the past six times that they were off a loss of six or fewer points. Enough's enough. Wolverines bounce back with a much-needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND. Yesterday, I successfully played against the Lakers, a Western Conf. team which was at the end of a fairly long road trip and facing an Eastern Conf. opponent. This evening, its the same situation but instead we'll play against an Eastern Conf. team which is at the end of a fairly long trip out West. Indeed, this will be the Pacers' fifth road game in the past eight days. The fact that they won three of the first four games, including each of the past two by double-digits, could make them a little complacent here; the trip has already been a success and it'd be easy to get caught thinking ahead to "getting home." Just ask the Lakers. Note that Indiana is 3-7 SU/ATS the past 10 times it was off b2b double-digit road wins, 0-2 SU/ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. There should be zero complacency on the part of the Blazers. Times are getting desperate and they know they need all the wins they can get. Thats particularly true with four tough Western. Conf. opponents (Houston, LA, Utah Denver) on deck. They need this game. Facing an Indiana team which they've swept each of the past two seasons, I expect the Blazers to take care of business. 

I'm playing on IONA. The Hawks won by 12, when these teams met on Jan. 5th in West Long Branch. Playing at home, I expect the Gaels to get some payback this afternoon. In their last two home games, the Gaels have allowed 66 and 57 points. They're now a perfect 5-0 when allowing less than 70 points, but 0-9 when allowing 70 or more. Monmouth, meanwhile, is 0-5 when allowing 73 or more points. Thats noteworthy as Iona scored 81, 81, and 103 points in three 2019 meetings against the Hawks. I say that homecourt proves significant in this one and that the revenge-minded Gaels get some payback. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Huskies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes know that they've lost five straight to Washington and they're ready to settle the score. Since point guard Quade Green got ruled academically ineligible, the Huskies have gone 1-4. The Huskies have blown double-digit second half leads in b2b games. Last time out, they lost 67-66 at Utah, on Thursday. That was a game Washington led the entire way, up until the final 14 seconds. Those are the type of losses that really can take a toll. Off that loss, playing in elevation on the short-turn around against a talented and angry Colorado team, I expect Washington to lose by double-digits. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lakers are at the end of a long road trip. I expect it to catch up to them here. The 76ers are going to be in an angry mood after losing to Toronto. A win against the high-flying Lakers would be just what the doctor ordered. Keep in mind that they're 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) the past 15 times that they were off a road loss against a division rival and 11-3 SU/ATS off a double-digit divisional loss overall. The 76ers hammered the Lakers 143-120 the last time the teams played here. In fact, they've won four of the past five meetings and the lone loss came by just three points. Expect AT LEAST another cover from the highly motivated home team this evening. 

I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE. These teams both won on their homecourt when playing during the regular season last year. However, the Raiders haven't forgotten that the Norse knocked them out of the Horizon Finals. Indeed, they've had this game circled since the schedule came out. Both teams last played on 1/18. That amount of rest figures to favor the home team. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Norse are 4-10 ATS when playing with five or six day's worth of rest in between games. During the same span, the Raiders are 11-6 ATS when doing so. While they may not have covered (won by 7, when laying -11) I really liked the fact that the Raiders only turned the ball over six times in Saturday's win. That was tied for their fewest number of turnovers, against a Div. 1 team, since 2014. Note that the Norse score 66.7 ppg on the road compared to Wright State's 82.8 ppg at home. They're 9-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after failing to cover two or more consecutive games. Off three straight ATS losses, expect the Raiders to respond with a big win and cover tonight. 

I'm playing on NY. Off their big win over the rival 76'ers, I feel it'll be easy for the champs to suffer a bit of a letdown against lowly New York. That'll prove costly, however, as the Knicks are playing well right now. In fact, they've covered the spread in three straight. While the Raptors have indeed won five straight, they're just 12-21-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off five or more consec. victories. The Knicks haven't forgotten an earlier 28-point loss at Toronto. They're 9-5 ATS the past 14 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points and that includes a 4-1 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a road loss of 20 or more. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle tonight. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Cougars are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Buffaloes haven't played since getting blown out 75-54 on 1/18, at Arizona. The last time that they were off a loss? Laying -8.5 points, they won by 39! The Colorado/Utah trip is always tough and the front-end of it, in this case, is the most difficult. While the points may seem attractive, consider that the Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the +12.5 to +15 point range. During the same span, the Buffaloes were 7-3 ATS when off a double-digit conference loss. Don't be surprised if tonight's game brings back some memories of last year's game here, when the (+11.5) Cougars lost by 32. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Cavs have the schedule working for them here. They come in well-rested while their guests played last night. Not all back-to-back spots are created equally. The Wizards could have easily gone through the motions last night. If they'd suffered a blowout loss, they'd probably be ready to come out strong tonight. However, that didn't happen. Instead, to their credit, the Wizards left it all on the floor. Playing at one of this season's toughest venues (the Heat are now 20-1 at home!) the Wizards took their hosts to OT. Ultimately, Miami won by a 134-129 score. That type of hard-fought loss will take a toll, mentally and physically, on the Wizards tonight. It'll be tougher for them to get up for a game against a Cleveland team playing out the string than it was for last night's game. Beal logged 38 minutes last night, one of four Washington players which was on the floor for 32 or more. The O/U line for this game is in the low 230s, as of this writing. That suits the Cavs just fine. They're 5-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater and 3-0 ATS when that line climbs to 230 or more. Winnable games don't come around often in Cleveland these days. Look for the Cavs to take advantage of tonight's opportunity. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The Thunder met when these teams met at OKC earlier. However, playing on their homecourt, I expect the revenge-minded Magic to have the edge here. The Magic are 8-3 ATS in 2020. Listed as small favorites, they're 13-7-1 ATS (17-4 SU) when laying points. The Thunders are 11-10 on the road. Off a win against former teammate Westbrook and the Rockets, they could easily be ripe for a letdown. Visting teams average a mere 99.8 ppg here. Expect the Magic, currently 7th in the East, to come ready to play, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine, when off a divisional road win. 

I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish are 9-1 SU when laying points but only 4-5-1 at the betting window. Here, however, they're working with a small enough number that a SU victory will also result in an ATS win. I expect that to be the case. Note that the Irish are 1-0 ATS As home favorites of six or less. The Irish have played four straight games as underdogs, a stretch which started with a game at Syracuse, against these same Orange. Notre Dame won that game, which has helped in keeping this number a little lower than it could have been, as many will be considering the revenge angle. However, in my opinion, if the Orange couldn't beat them at home, they're not going to be able to do so on the road. Cuse has been outscored 74.5 to 74.3 on the road. Notre Dame, on the other hand, outscores visiting teams by a 78.7 to 61.8 average score, here at home. Off b2b losses, the Irish bounced back to win at GT last time out. However, with a road game at FSU up next, they know they can't afford to let up. They're 3-0 SU/ATS after having lost two of their previous three games. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off back-to-back road losses, the Tigers are going to be in an angry mood. They already lost two in a row once in 2020 and they responded with a 16-point blowout win over Florida in their next game. The Tigers outscore visiting teams by a 73.7 to 55.4 margin at home. The Aggies get outscored by a 61.6 to 58.2 average score on the road. Missouri has covered six of nine at home (7-2 SU) including a 1-0 SU/ATS mark as home favorites in the -6.5 to 9 range. While the Aggies are 5-48 SU over the years, when listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Tigers are 58-10 sU as home favorites in the same range. I absolutely expect them to improve on those numbers here, providing us the ATS victory along the way. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. While I lost with the Wildcats in their victory over UConn (they won, just not by enough) I'm comfortable coming back with them here. The Bulldogs are an ugly 9-17 ATS (8-19 SU) on the road the past 2+ seasons. They just lost by eight at home to Seton Hall and followed it up with a double-digit loss at Depaul. This is no place to "get healthy." Nova has dominated this rivalry including wins of 75-54 and 87-68 its last two as a host. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three as a home favorite of six or less. They're also 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a SU home win but non-cover, 15-6 ATS (19-2 SU) the past 21 times that they were off a SU win but non-cover overall. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Spurs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While they're off a hard-fought win yesterday afternoon, the Suns were resting, waiting for them. Yesterday's win was a battle the entire way and it came against a Miami team which had recently defeated them. This time, however, its the Spurs' opponent which will be playing with "revenge." Indeed, the Suns haven't forgotten that the Spurs beat them by two points in each of the last two meetings. This season's previous game came in mid-December, the Spurs winning 121-119 in OT. Those are the ones you don't forget and you can be sure the Suns have had this one circled. That 2-point loss on 12/14 was part of an 8-game losing streak for the streaky Suns. They're playing better now though. In fact, they've won four of their past five including an upset win at Boston last time out. Not only are the Suns 5-1 ATS when off an upset victory, they're 17-6-1 ATS when attempting to avenge a loss where the opposing team scored 110 or more. Schedule in their favor and knowing that they're going to have to face these same Spurs in a few days, at San Antonio, look for the revenge-minded Suns to take care of business tonight. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. After winning with the Wildcats several times earlier, they've cost me lately. I'm going to give them another chance today, however, as this is a team which they should hammer. While the points might look tempting, consider that Fordam is 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the past seven times it was a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9.5 range. Going back further finds it at just 10-23-1 ATS (4-30 SU!) in that situation. Indeed, being a home underdog in this range has not been kind to the Rams. A look at recent meetings shows that Davidson has won by 25, 10, 24, 30 and 18. All double-digit wins. Expect another this afternoon. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While both teams played last night, I expect the Bulls' homecourt advantage to prove significant in this one. Note that Cleveland's game was arguably more taxing than Chicago's last night as the Cavs were close the entire way. The fact that they lost at Cleveland earlier (and that they know they'll play again at Clev. in a week) will help to provide some added motivation. The Bulls are actually 4-2 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, this will be the third time that the Cavs played the second of b2b games already in 2020. The first two instances resulted in losses of 15 and 25 points. Expect a blowout.