10 Unit Play. Take #109 Kansas City Chiefs over Philadelphia Eagles (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 9 FOX) Not going to go into much detail, but the fact is I just cannot bet my money against Patrick Mahomes. It has worked well in the last two Super Bowls, and he just does whatever is needed to win the game in front of him. I like the Chiefs’ defense especially their pas rush and they proved against Buffalo that they could stop the tush push. Until we are proven otherwise, we will bet our many with the two win defending champions.

10 Unit Play. Take #104 Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills (6:30p.m., Sunday, January 26 CBS) Buffalo has the momentum but Kansas City is the back-to-back champions, and they are playing this game at home. They also have the best playoff quarterback still playing and a great defense that can get to the quarterback, especially in the fourth quarter. We have ridden Kansas City the last few years and see no reason to stop using them with this low number. The Bills defense thrives on turnovers and if the Chiefs can take care of the football, they will grind out this victory. Buffalo beat Kansas City earlier this season, but Baltimore beat Buffalo earlier and we saw how the rematch went last Sunday night. The Chiefs have won 3 straight playoff games against the Bills. Just cannot in good faith put money going against QB Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.  

10 Unit Play. Take #394 Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens (6:30p.m., Sunday, January 19 CBS) This is far and away the most anticipated matchup of the year. This is also a rematch from a meeting earlier this season and I expect the Bills to even up this series at one game apiece. Just do not believe Baltimore will be able to run through Buffalo like they did last week and in the first meetings this season. Buffalo has got to key on stopping the run and the Ravens will not have a healthy Zay Flowers for this game (he may play) but I do not see him being a factor. The weather and stadium favor the Bills greatly in this game. QB Jackson does not like the cold weather and was wearing a stocking cap in the first meeting despite it being in the low 60s. Tonight it will be in the single digits. Buffalo is 9-0 this season at home and now is the time for QB Allen and company to break through and advance to the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens defense has shown improvement but they have not faced anyone like Josh Allen during the later half of the season. Baltimore was 1-2 and Buffalo was 3-0 when they first met on September 29, meaning Baltimore needed that game more. That is not the case today, and the Bills Mafia will allow them to break through and win this game. Home underdog is too good to pass up.

2 Unit Play. Take #388 Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Houston Texans (4:30p.m., Saturday, January 18 ABC) The Texans have had success in the wild card round, but they have not had much success in the divisional round. Kansas City has won 6 straight playoff games (6-0 ATS). Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 straight up and 13-5 ATS in the playoffs. Houston was not very good this season and Kansas City is getting healthy on defense. This will be a double-digit victory for the home team.

2 Unit Play. Take #381 Green Bay Packers over Philadelphia Eagles (4:30p.m., Sunday, January 11 FOX) The fans are really down on the Packers for losing basically a meaningless game last week to the Bears. Green Bay was not really trying to win that game in the second half and expect they will be ready to go Sunday against an NFC East team. Last year the Packers pounded Dallas in the Wild Card and I expect them to put forth a good showing in this game as well. QB Hurts has not played in weeks and I do expect him to be rusty in this game. Both teams are dealing with injuries and the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Packers won in Philadelphia, 21-16. This is just too many points for a game I expect to go down to the wire.

10 Unit Play. Take #283 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30p.m., Thursday, January 9 ESPN) Just do not trust Penn State and their coach to win this type of game. They have had a cakewalk to reach the CFP Semifinals beating SMU in Happy Valley and Boise State in Glendale. The Irish took down a very physical team in Georgia last Thursday and they are the more battle tested team in this matchup. The Irish have a great offensive line that should be able to negate much of the pressure from Penn State. They also have a dual threat quarterback that is due for a strong game after struggling against Georgia last Thursday. Norte Dame is on a 33-11 ATS run (1 push) in their last 45 games. They have found the next big young coach in Marcus Freeman and I see them marching onto the Championship Game in Atlanta in 11 days. James Franklin gets tight in big games and that will show its face again on Thursday.

7 Unit Play. Take #364 Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings (8:20p.m., Sunday, January 5 NBC) This is the final regular season game of the 2024 NFL season and the winner will be the No. 1 seed and the loser will be the No. 5 seed. Detroit has already beaten Minnesota this season at US Bank Stadium. I just trust Goff more than Donald and feel the Lions have been the best team in the NFC all season long. They will finish it off at home and be the team to beat in the playoffs.

2 Unit Play. Take #341 Miami Dolphins over New York Jets (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 5 FOX) The Aaron Rodgers era in New York will drag out longer on Sunday afternoon instead of a 1 p.m. start. That is due to the fact that the Dolphins have a slim chance of making the playoffs and need to play opposite the Broncos. The Jets are terrible and cannot wait for this season to end. Tua is questionable for this game, or I would go higher, but this is a straight fade against the Jets.

2 Unit Play. Take #336 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints (1p.m., Sunday, January 5 FOX) The Buccaneers have everything to play for in this game, as a win gets them the division and a playoff home game next week. New Orleans is banged up on both sides, terrible on both sides and should not put up much of a fight in this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #355 Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers (8p.m., Saturday, January 4 ESPN) More than likely Baltimore will win the early game and thus Pittsburgh cannot win the division. Cincinnati needs this game to have any chance to make the playoffs and expect them to get it. QB Burrow is playing outstanding and has great weapons. If he gets any help from his defense, the Bengals should be able to win this game by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #271 Ohio State Buckeyes over Oregon Ducks (5p.m., Wednesday, January 1 ESPN) Everyone has stated this is a brutal draw for Oregon, having to play Ohio State again this season but this time at a neutral site. Coach Day is 3-0 ATS in his last 3 games against teams with a better winning percentage than his Buckeyes. Ohio State played outstanding in their last game against Tennessee, and I just feel that they are the much better defensive team in this matchup. Penn State proved you can score points against this Oregon defense, and I expect Ohio State to have a big day as well in the passing department. Ohio State will win this game in the trenches, and they are 9-2 lifetime against Oregon. Coach Day is 13-7 in his career when facing an undefeated team.

4 Unit Play. Take #268 Boise State Broncos over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30p.m., Tuesday, December 31 ESPN) FIESTA BOWL Just do not see a blowout in this game on a neutral field where Boise State has had great success in this bowl game. This is not a home game for Penn State and the game against SMU would have been much closer had the SMU QB not shit the bed. Penn State does not have an explosive offense and they will need help from Boise State in order to 30+ points. Boise State has the best player on the field and a great offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter. The Nittany Lions struggled to put away Illinois, UCLA, USC, and Minnesota this season and Boise State is on par or slightly better than those teams. All 4 favorites dominated the first round and expect the public to hammer them in this round as well. I just do not see all blowouts this week and Boise State is more than capable of hanging in this game especially on defense.

10 Unit Play. Take #265 Baylor Bears over LSU Tigers (3:30p.m., Tuesday, December 31 ESPN) TEXAS BOWL. COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR The line movement in this game has been telling, as LSU opened as the favorite, but the sharps were having none of that. Brian Kelly is a good coach, but he was not hired to play in the Texas Bowl. He was hired to make the playoffs, and his teams have not come close to achieving that for 3 years. Despite having better talent in most of his bowl games, he is just 6-9 ATS, including an ATS loss last season to Wisconsin. Baylor has a former LSU assistant as their head coach in Dave Aranda, and he was on the hot seat this season before a remarkable run to close out the regular season, winning 6 straight games (6-0 ATS). Their best performance during this streak came in their last game, beating Kansas 45-17 and preventing them from becoming bowl eligible. Baylor has won 4 of their last 6 bowl games (4-2 ATS). Baylor has the momentum in this matchup, and they will win this game by double digits, putting Coach Kelly squarely on the hot seat for next season.

4 Unit Play. Take #258 Missouri Tigers over Iowa Hawkeyes (2:30p.m., Monday, December 30 ESPN) MUSIC CITY BOWL Iowa always seems to struggle in bowl games against SEC teams and I do not see them winning this game in Nashville. Missouri won 9 games this season but received little respect since they were blown out by Texas A&M and Alabama this season. The Tigers have a veteran quarterback, and I see him having a big game today in Music City. Missouri kept most of their roster in tact for this game and they should be able to score close to 30 points. That should be enough to win and cover this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #426 Minnesota Vikings over Green Bay Packers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 29 FOX) I am still not sold on the Vikings, but they have a lot more to play for in this game compared to the Packers. Green Bay cannot win the division, earn a bye, or host a game during first two rounds and thus I feel they will try and get healthy over the next two weeks. If Minnesota wins out they will be the No. 1 seed and I expect them to do that and set up a winner take all game next week at Detroit. Minnesota just finds way to win, and they are getting the Packers on a short week with possible injuries to the wide receiving group.

4 Unit Play. Take #248 Miami Hurricanes over Iowa State Cyclones (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 28 ABC) POP TARTS BOWL Miami should have Cam Ward for this game and expect him to make a statement that he should be a top 5 pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. Iowa State got blown out in their last games against Arizona State and that knocked them out of the College Football Playoff. Instead they get to play in the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando, FL. Miami has not won a bowl games since 2016 and they have won just one bowl game since 2006. You can bet Coach Cristobal wants to start a bowl winning streak, and they should win this game by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #403 Baltimore Ravens over Houston Texans (4:30p.m., Wednesday, December 25 Netflix) The Texans have clinched the AFC South and will be the fourth seed come the 2025 playoffs next month. They do not have much to play for these next two weeks and suffered a bad injury to Tank Dell last Saturday. Baltimore still has a chance to win the division, and they likely will if they can win out. Baltimore has won 4 straight games against Houston (4-0 ATS) and they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Look for Lamar and company to come out strong in this game, especially if the results of the early game go their way.

4 Unit Play. Take #221 Northern Illinois Huskies over Fresno State Bulldogs (2:30p.m., Monday, December 23 ESPN) IDADO POTATO BOWL Just feel that the Huskies will be the more motivated team in this matchup. They want to join the MWC and Fresno State is leaving the MWC and will have a new coach come next season. Northern Illinois put up great stats this season and they should have been better than their 7-5 record according to those numbers. Both quarterbacks will be out for this game, but we will follow the line movement and take the Huskies.

5 Unit Play. Take #122 Seattle Seahawks +3 over Minnesota Vikings (4:05p.m., Sunday, December 22 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK Minnesota is coming off a short week and Seattle will be desperate to not drop two straight home games to NFC North teams. The Vikings have lost 5 straight Week 15 games (0-5 ATS as well). Seattle has beaten Minnesota 7 of the last 8 meetings. They are the more desperate team and all signs point to QB Smith playing in this game.

10 Unit Play. Take #217 Tennessee Volunteers over Ohio State Buckeyes (8p.m., Saturday, December 21 ABC) Just feel the mode at Ohio State has not recovered from their embarrassing home loss last time out to Michigan. I am still not certain Ryan Day will return next season and I expect the Vols to make the Buckeyes one dimensional in this game. The Volunteers are not known for a strong defense under Coach Heupel, but that is what they have become this season. This total is the lowest of the four first round games and laying over a touchdown would be a tough ask if the total points is only expected to be in the mid-forties. Take the points with the hungier team that wants to make a statement that they are back.

4 Unit Play. Take #478 Arizona Cardinals over New England Patriots (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 15 CBS) It is no or never for QB Murray. He laid an egg last week against Seattle and now gets an easier home game against New England. The Patriots are coming off a bye and will enter having lost 3 straight games. I do not see them getting much from their offense in this game and if Kyler can take care of the football, the Red Birds should win this game by double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #452 San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Rams (8:15p.m., Thursday, December 12 Prime) Just do not trust the Rams defense and feel that the only way they can win games is in a shootout. San Francisco is coming off their best game of the season and they still have a chance in the NFL West if they can win this game. The Rams have beaten the 49ers the last two games, but SF has won 7 of the last 190 matchups. All 3 of the Rams wins were by 3 points of less and I do not see them being able to stay in this game for 60 minutes. The home team has a great edge in Thursday Night Football games and look for Brock Prudy to put up big numbers in this game.

7 Unit Play. Take #136 Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks (4:05p.m., Sunday, Sunday, 8 CBS) The Cardinals need this game if they have visions of making the playoffs. Nobody in the NFC West has been able to separate all season long and thus I do not see Seattle winning this game and pulling away from the field. Seattle still cannot run the football, and they will struggle to do that against this strong Arizona rush defense. QB Smith had an emotional game last week against New York (former team) and playing their second straight road game will doom them in for this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #134 Maimi Dolphins over New York Jets (1p.m., Sunday, December 8 CBS) The Jets are just playing out the string for the rest of the season and QB Rodgers is likely down in New York should he want to play next season. Miami has held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 20 points and if they do that today they should win this game big. Miami has won 5 of their last 6 home games against New York. The Jets will have some moments in this game, they will just find a way to lose, something they have done most of this season.

10 Unit Play. Take #120 Oregon Ducks over Penn State Nittany Lions (8p.m., Saturday, December CBS) BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Penn State must be shocked that they made it to Indianapolis, but I see them losing this game by double-digits. Both teams are likely in the playoffs and are playing for a top seed and bye. Coach Franklin has struggled in games against top teams and Oregon is the No. 1 team in the country. Oregon has scored 30 points in 23 of their last 24 games and I just do not believe Penn State can keep up with them. Oregon got over a big hurdle last week beating Washington and I see them winning the Big Ten in their first season.

7 Unit Play. Take #308928 Montana State -17 over UT Martin (3p.m., Saturday, December 7 ESPN+) UT-Martin is coming off of perhaps the most dominating performance, defeating New Hampshire 41-10 last week in the opening round. Their reward, however, isn't much of a prize as they now must travel to Bozeman, Montana, to take on the number one seed, Montana State. The Skyhawks from UT-Martin have been impressive offensively, scoring 32.5 ppg (23rd in the country) and almost the same on the road, with 32.3 ppg. Their defense, however, is a different story, surrendering 22.3 ppg overall and 23 ppg as visitors. Perhaps an even more glaring statistic is their 2-4 SU record against teams above a .500 winning percentage, a stat Montana State (12-0) must be salivating at. The Bobcats have the highest-scoring offense in FCS, putting up 40.7 ppg and tied with Dayton for 6th at 17.0 ppg. Bobcat Stadium has been even more difficult for opposing teams to score in, as MSU's home points allowed per game is a stingy 13.2 ppg. UT-Martin has had difficulty all season against elite defenses, putting up a mere 9 points against Tennessee Tech and 6 against Kansas State. The Bobcats are somewhere in the middle of those respective teams. Another key factor to consider is travel and altitude. The Skyhawks have certainly earned their wings, traveling 1,266 miles last week to Durham, New Hampshire, and an even further 1,600 miles to Bozeman, Montana this week. Bobcat Stadium isn't quite a mile high, at an elevation of 4,940 feet, but the altitude is significant enough that visiting teams often struggle in the second half against MSU. We expect the weary travelers from UT-Martin to hang around in the first 30 minutes and melt under the blistering pressure of Montana State in the second half. Take MONTANA STATE GOOD LUCK!

5 Unit Play. Take #111 Ohio Bobcats +2 over Miami Ohio Redhawks (12p.m., Saturday, December 5 ESPN) The stats favor Ohio in this game and getting them as an underdog is too good to pass up. The underdog is 16-6 ATS (3 pushes) in the last 25 MAC Championship Games. These two teams met earlier this season and I just do not believe the Redhawks are good enough to beat the Bobcats twice in one season. The MAC is always full of upsets and revenge will be served on the field.

4 Unit Play. Take #108 Boise State Broncos over UNLV Rebels (8p.m., Friday, December 6 FOX) MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME UNLV may be the better all-around team, but Boise State is playing at home with the best player on the field. The winner of this game will likely reach the playoffs, and I just cannot envision UNLV being that team. Boise State is a brand name, and the conference and playoff committee want them to win this game. UNLV lost to Boise State, 44-20 at home last year in the Mountain West Championship and that is how is see this game going as well.

4 Unit Play. Take #414 Texas A&M Aggies over Texas Longhorns (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 30 ABC) Texas A&M is coming off a bad loss to Auburn last week but they still control their own destiny to reach the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Texas has not been a world beater this season, they just have played a very easy schedule, and I do not see them blowing out the Aggies at College Station. These two teams have not met in quite some time and the 12th man will be alive and well for this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #390 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 30 FOX) The Sun Devils have a lot to play for in the Territorial Cup, but I see this game going down to the wire as rivalry games often do. Arizona State is coming off a big win over BYU and they now control their own destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. ASU got sloppy in the second half against BYU including bad coaching decisions and I feel that might carryover into this game. Arizona is not making a bowl game and thus this will be their last game of the season. Look for them to go all out to win this game on Senior Day and spoil the magical season of ASU.

4 Unit Play. Take #322 Wisconsin Badgers over Minnesota Golden Gophers (12p.m., Friday, November 29 CBS) The Badgers face a must win game to become bowl eligible and keep their winning record streak alive. This is the battle for the axe, and I see Wisconsin winning this game for a second straight season. Minnesota is coming off a tough loss to Penn State and I think that will take its toll on this game. Sometimes it is easier to come back from a blowout and look for Wisconsin to show some pride and win this game at Camp Randall.

10 Unit Play. Take #270 Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers (4:25p.m., Sunday, November 24 FOX) The 49ers are leaking oil this entire season and they are not the same team that they have been the last couple of years. The are really banged up on both sides of the football and their players that have returned (CMC) have yet to produce much this season. Now QB Purdy is on the injury report and Nick Bosa left the game last week and their defense fell apart without him. Green Bay is coming off an emotional win last week against Chicago and look for them to carry that momentum into this game (they should have lost to the Bears). The Packers have already lost two home games this season and a neutral site game and they do not want to suffer all of 3 loses at Lambeau Field this season.

4 Unit Play. Take #331 James Madison Dukes over Old Dominion Monarchs (4p.m., Saturday, November 16 ESPNU) The Dukes lost their coach who has gone on to have great early success at Indiana, but this is still a solid team. This is a game that they need to win to keep their slim hopes of winning the Sun Belt East alive. ODU has had similar results in the Sun Belt, but the difference in this game will come down to JMU having the better quarterback. Alonza Barnett is have a great season with 21 touchdowns compared to just 2 interceptions. He will come up big for his again on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #398 Illinois Fighting Illini over Michigan State Spartans (2:30p.m., Saturday, November 16 FS1) I have not given up on Illinois this season. They are still 6-3 on the season and 3-3 in Big 10 Play. Both teams are off of a bye and a just do not see Illinois losing two straight home games against middle of the pack teams in the conference. Michigan State started off hot against Indiana on 11/2 leading 10-0, but lost 47-10. They have played a very difficult conference schedule, but I think they are worn down, not battle tested. The Illini beat Michigan at home by 14 points, a team that beat Michigan State. Lay the small change with the better all-around team playing at home.

4 Unit Play. Take #282 Arizona Cardinals over New York Jets (4:25p.m., Sunday, November 10 CBS) The Cardinals have been sneaky good this season and currently sit atop the standing in the NFL West. We have had a great feel for the Jets this season and feel that they cannot handle prosperity and will suffer a defeat after beating the Texans last week on Thursday Night Football. QB Rodgers is the main issue, as he cannot move around anymore and just dumps of the ball quickly to avoid being sacked. QB Murray is very streaky but has a good coach and will enter this game having won 3 straight games, with two of those teams having better records than the Jets. This play comes down to everyone overvaluing the Jets and we will take the home team in this close to pick’em game. The Jets are not going anywhere this season, and this loss will be more of the same for them in 2024.  

4 Unit Play. Take #160 Missouri Tigers over Oklahoma Sooners (7:45p.m., Saturday, November 9 SEC Network) Just not a fan of Oklahoma anymore and feel Coach Venables is in over his head. They have lost 3 straight SEC games by 31, 26, and 12 points. Missouri is a solid 6-2 this season but their two losses have been clunkers, getting blown out by Alabama and Texas A&M. Oklahoma is not in either class of those two teams and thus I expect Missou to take care of business at home.

7 Unit Play. Take 308901 Dartmouth Big Green -6 over Princeton Tigers (Fri., Nov 8th 6:00 p.m. EST ESPNU) Another edition of the Friday Night Lights, Ivy League style when the 6-1 Dartmouth Big Green travel to New Jersey to take on the 2-5 Princeton Tigers. The Big Green suffered their first loss of the season last week, dropping a heartbreaker to Harvard 31-27. Dartmouth is an all-around solid team, ranking 42nd in scoring offense with 28.0 ppg and 37th in defensive total yards at 341 ypg. The Big Green are powered by a strong ground game  which averages 4.6 ypc and 177.6 ypg. The most impressive Dartmouth stat is their offense is 2nd in the FCS in turnovers lost, with just 4 through seven games. Princeton has struggled this season, averaging just 21.6 while surrendering 32.4 ppg. Their offense produces 272.6 ypg and their defense gives up 401.1. The two teams have two common opponents: Columbia and Harvard. Princeton lost to both, 34-17 to Columbia and 45-13 to Harvard. Dartmouth defeated Columbia, on the road, 24-21 and as mentioned before, lost last week to Harvard 31-27. Our model loves Dartmouth in this spot.

5 Unit Play. Take #108 Western Michigan Broncos +2 over Norther Illinois Huskies (7p.m., Wednesday, November 6 ESPN2) Oddsmakers cannot forgot that Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame earlier this season and thus are giving them too much respect. This is not the same team, as they are just 1-3 in the MAC. Western Michigan is at home, and they are 4-0 in the MAC and on their way to playing in Detroit for the MAC Championship. The Broncos have a solid QB & RB combination and the trends for Northern Illinois say to fade them. The Huskies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that won their previous game.

10 Unit Play. Take #378 Washington Huskies over Southern Cal Trojans (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 2 BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR Not sure Doc ever envisioned his Big 10 Game of the Year featuring Washington and USC, but conference realignment has made the Big 10 a coast-to-coast conference. Both teams play much better at home. And if this game is close, I just feel USC will find a way to lose it. That is something they have done a lot of lately, and this is a game that the folks in Seattle want in a big way. The host team has covered the spread in all 8 games for USC this season. USC is playing on the road for the second time in three weeks. Washington has a strong rush defense and played much better than the final score indicated last week at Indiana. But this game basically comes down to Coach Lincoln Reily and how soft his teams have been, especially at USC. Coach Riely is 8-20 ATS in his last 28 road games when he is favored (lost all 3 in 2024). He is 2-8 as a road favorite in his last 10 conference games. Washington beat Michigan this season in Seattle, and they have not lost at Husky Stadium in 2024. USC is allowing a ton of yards over their last 3 games, and Will Rogers is capable of putting up big numbers in this game (needs to convert in the redzone). Washington has had success against USC, winning 5 of the last 8 meetings, and they will win this one by close to double digits. USC has been stuck in neutral for most of this season and will go another week without a road victory. The Husky’s need this game to become bowl eligible later in the season and they will get it.

4 Unit Play. Take #350 Michigan State Spartans over Indiana Hoosiers (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 3 Peacock) The Hoosiers are not going to run the table with 11 straight covers during the regular season. They have had a remarkable season, and I am a big fan of their Coach Curt Cignetti, but they have played an incredibly weak schedule this season. They also have quarterback issues, and I will not speculate whether or not Kurtis Rourke will play in this game. Their 14-point victory last week against Washington was misleading, as they got a pick six to open the game and Washington outplayed them for much of those 60 minutes. Michigan State is improving under Jonathan Smith and this still have a great chance to earn 6 wins and reach a bowl game. They have a competent quarterback in Aidan Chiles and should be able to take this game down to the wire. This is also a lookahead spot for Indiana, with Michigan and Ohio State on deck. The law of averages will come into play, as the ATS run that Indiana is on will end.

4 Unit Play. Take #291 New York Giants over Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15p.m., Monday, October 28 ABC) Was shocked Pittsburgh was a home underdog last week against New York, now they face the other New York team and are close to a touchdown favorite. That seems too big of a swing in line movement off of the results of last week and expect Pittsburgh to be in a hard fought battle that goes down to the wire. The Giants looked terrible last week, but expect a bounce back this week as is often the case in professional sports. Can George Pickens catch all those well-covered moon balls this week from Russell Wilson? I am betting against that happening.

4 Unit Play. Take #148 Kentucky Wildcats over Auburn Tigers (7:45p.m., Saturday, October 26 SEC Network) This is a straight fade against Auburn, as this team has been terrible this season. They are turnover prone on offense and do not have an established quarterback. They will enter this game having lost 4 straight SEC games and just find ways to lose, as they could have beaten Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. If they hit any adversity in this game they will fold. Kentucky has struggled this season as well, but they still have an identity and did beat Ole Miss this season. Mark Stoops is on safer ground compared to Hugh Freeze and I just feel Kentucky will find a way to win this game by 7-10 points.

2 Unit Play. Take #475 Baltimore Ravens over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15p.m., Monday, October 21 ABC) Just play QB Lamar Jackson blind against NFC teams. He is 22-3 straight-up in his career when facing NFC teams. Tampa is benefiting from a weak division and I do not believe they are the same caliber team that Baltimore is.

4 Unit Play. Take #474 Pittsburgh Steelers over New York Jets (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 20 NBC) The Jets made a big trade this week, but I do not see them beating a well-coached Pittsburgh team at Acrisure Stadium. The Jets are 2-4 on the season and the Steelers are 4-2. Pittsburgh has made a living beating bad teams during the Mike Tomlin tenure and tonight should be no different. I do think it matters who Pittsburgh starts at quarterback, the defense, running game, and special teams will be enough for the home team to win this game by close to double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #414 Oregon State Beavers over UNLV Rebels (10p.m., Saturday, October 19 CW Network) Just not sold on UNLV being this big of a favorite on the road in a tough environment. UNLV has wins over power 4 teams, but Kansas and Houston are not any good this season. They also have a home loss to Syracuse. Oregon State will be able to move the football in this game and should be able to take it down to the wire. The Beavers have some injuries, but they are playing at home at night with a strong fan base.

10 Unit Play. Take 309002 North Dakota State Bison +1.5 over South Dakota State Jackrabbits (8p.m., Saturday, October 19 ESPN2) FCS GAME OF THE YEAR The FCS's version of Alabama-Georgia goes off tonight when the S. Dakota State Jackrabbits travel to the FargoDome to take on the N. Dakota State Bison. S. Dakota St. is #1 in the country and the hosting N. Dakota St. is #2. The Jackrabbits are 6th in the FCS averaging 39.0 ppg off of 439.8 yards per game of total offense. They lead the FCS in yards per carry with an impressive 7.3 average and 15 TDs. N. Dakota State is 5th in the FCS with 3,109 total yards of offense and 13th in scoring offense with 35.3 ppg and 9th in scoring defense, allowing 17.6 ppg. They are lead by the 4-year starter Cam Miller, who is poised to become the NDSU all-time leader in passing yards as he currently has 7,974 and trails the leader Easton Stick by 719 yards. Miller's impending achievement becomes even more impressive when you realize that caliber of talent the Bison have produced at QB (Carson Wentz and Trey Lance most recently). Miller has the accuracy of a sniper, completing 121-158 76.6% for 1,504 yards, with 12 TDs and 0 INTs through 7 games. SDSU has won the Dakota Marker (the annual trophy) for the last four regular season meetings, as well as in the 2022 FCS Championship game. This game feels like Miller gets to exorcise his Jackrabbit demons. While SDSU's defense is still quite good, they're giving up 200.7 ypg through the air, 32 more yards than last season, while their passing output has decreased from 222 to 194.7 ypg in 2024. NDSU's offense is more potent than Incarnate Word, who put up 351 passing yards and 419 total yards, along with 24 points. The Bison have been a scoring machine when they get into the redzone, converting 72.9% of those trips into touchdowns. Cam Miller has a dangerous go-to man in WR Bryce Lance, who has hauled in 35 catches for 418 yards and 5 TDs. That connection is part of the reason that the Bison have a 58% conversion rate on 3rd-down, 2nd-best in the FCS and when they need to, 8-12 (75%) on 4th-down conversions as well. While they don't do this often, NDSU averages 47.4 per punt. With the emotions of this massive rivalry game running rampant, I like taking a seasoned veteran leader like the Bison's QB Cam Miller who will be able to keep their cool. Take the home dog North Dakota State and good luck!

4 Unit Play. Take #356 Cincinnati Bearcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (12p.m., Saturday, October 19 ESPN+) Arizona State has had a remarkable turnaround under second year Coach Kenny Dillingham, but I still believe that they are playing over their heads. Some of their wins against Mississippi State, Kansas, and Utah appear like great wins at the start of the season, but those teams have fallen off a cliff. The Bearcats have regrouped after a rough 2023 season and are just a few plays away from being undefeated this season at 6-0 (4-2 record). The Bearcats have a strong passing game with close to 300 yards per game and they should be able to light up the scoreboard in this game through the air. We will lay the points with the home team.

4 Unit Play. Take #279 Pittsburgh Steelers over Las Vegas Raiders (4:05p.m., Sunday, October 13 CBS) For a second straight week, this is a straight fade against the Raiders. We easily collected last week and now they have quarterback issues for a third straight year. Pittsburgh got letdown by their defense last Sunday Night, but Dak is not playing in this game. Coach Tomlin has a knack for winning these type of games and I fully expect a bounce back from his team on Sunday. The Raiders are at a disadvantage all over the field and on the sideline. We faded them laying around a field goal last week and we will do the same again in what will feel like a Pittsburgh home game.

8 Unit Play. Take #188 LSU Tigers +3.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 ABC) COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR Ole Miss won this game last year in a shootout (55-49), but I just do not believe they are that much better than a 4-1 LSU team. Playing a night game in Baton Rouge is always a challenge for the visiting team and we will take the points on Saturday night. LSU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when they have single SEC revenge (lost to this team in the previous game). The loser of this game will likely not be able to make the SEC Championship Game and since this game is at home it is more important to LSU. The stats may favor Ole Miss on defense, but keep it mind LSU has played a much more difficult schedule and does not have a bad home loss to Kentucky on their schedule. Both teams will have their moments on offense, but I just trust Brian Kelly more as a head coach, especially when adversity hits. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 games in this matchup, including the last 4. Finally, LSU has won 6 straight home conference openers.  

4 Unit Play. Take #178 BYU Cougars over Arizona Wildcats (4p.m., Saturday, October 12 FOX) BYU is not a darling of the odds makers or total rankings, but they have a great home field advantage and should be able to take care of a rebuilding Arizona team at home. BYU is 5-0 on the season and they have been more impressive of late, pounding Kansas State and winning last time at in Waco. Arizona has a great win on their resume at Utah, but they also got blown out by Kansas State and lost at home last week to Texas Tech. The Cats returned a ton of talent from last season, but they just do not have the same magic under Coach Brennan that they did under Coach Fisch. Arizona has lost 7 of the last 10 games against BYU. The Cougars just find ways to win games, and we will lay the points with them today, as they have the better total defense.

4 Unit Play. Take #168 Illinois Fighting Illini over Purdue Boilermakers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 12 FS1) Not much is needed to justify this play, Purdue is terrible and is having players and coaches leave the team. They got pounded by Wisconsin and I see them struggling to score any points at all in this game. Illinois is coming off a bye and a truly believe Coach Bielema should be able to name the score of this game. The only is negative is that Purdue has former Bielema coaches on staff (head coach) and surprisingly Purdue has won 6 straight games in Champaign. I still see Illinois winning this game by 20+ points, as Purdue has given up on the season.

4 Unit Play. Take #474 Pittsburgh Steelers over Dallas Cowboys (8:20p.m., Sunday, October 6 NBC) Pittsburgh being favored against a public team in Dallas tells me just how far the talent level has fallen with the visitor. Dallas is dealing with injuries on the defensive side of the football and Pittsburgh should be able to bounce back at home. The Steelers want to run the football, and the Cowboys have been bad at stopping the run this season. Coach Tomlin always seems to win these games and I look for the Steelers to take care of business on Sunday Night Football.

4 Unit Play. Take #353 Indiana Hoosiers over Northwestern Wildcats (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) At this point you can pretty much play Indiana blind, as the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good they are on either side of the ball. The Wildcats struggle to score points and Indiana has been scoring them at will this season. Until proven otherwise, just take Indians with whatever the number is.

4 Unit Play. Take #364 Stanford Cardinal over Virginia Tech Hokies (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 ACC Network) This is a long trip to Palo Alto (Stanford, CA) for the Hokies after a devastating loss to Miami last time out. Just not sure why Virginia Tech is this big of a favorite since they are 2-3 on the season with losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers. Stanford returned a bunch of experience and they have been competitive most of the season. Their score against Clemson last week is a little misleading, as the Tigers pulled away late in that game. Just feel Virginia Tech is due for a letdown and they will just go through the motions and this one should go down to the wire. We will grab the points, as Virginia Tech is traveling +2,200 miles.

4 Unit Play. Take #402 Wisconsin Badgers over Purdue Boilermakers (12p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) Wisconsin has yet to cover a spread this season, yet are around a two touchdown favorite? Purdue is an historically bad team through 4 games this season and they have not been competitive in any of their 3 FBS games this season. They have lost by 59 points, 17 points and 18 points and Wisconsin should be able to get right in this game. The Badgers have a ton of bad vibes but have dominated Purdue in the past and should be able to win this game by 20+ points.

5 Unit Play. Take #288 Baltimore Ravens -2 over Buffalo Bills (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 29 NBC) This is a battle of two of the top teams in the AFC. When good teams play, I always like to side with the team that needs it more. Baltimore would be that team, as they are currently 1-2 on the season. Baltimore is 3-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Buffalo (1 push). Josh Allen has feasted on bad teams thus far, but he will be in for a rude awakening on Sunday Night Football.

2 Unit Play. Take #265 Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 over Indianapolis Colts (1p.m., Sunday, September 25 CBS) Pittsburgh has had an easy schedule thus far, and playing Indianapolis will not change their strength of schedule much. The Steelers have beaten the Colts 8 of the last 9 games, and I just do not believe Anthony Richardson can pick apart this defense. Justin Field is playing well and not beating himself. And with that defense, that is all he has to do. Pittsburgh has won 5 straight road games (5-0 ATS as well).

4 Unit Play. Take #180 Auburn Tigers over Oklahoma Sooners (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 29 ABC) Just do not think Oklahoma is that good this season and now they are making a change at quarterback. Coach Venables appears to be in over his head as a head coach and their home loss to Tennessee was not as close as the final score would indicate (Tennessee called off the dogs in the second half). Auburn has talent on both sides of the football, they have just been done in by turnovers. The Tigers had five of them last week against the Razorbacks and if they can take care of the football in this game, they should come out victorious. Turnovers are sometimes fluky, and I just do not feel they can play as badly as they did last Saturday. Auburn will preach about hanging onto the football all week during practice and will reap the benefits of that on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #197 Wisconsin Badgers over USC Trojans (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 28 CBS) Just do not see Wisconsin getting run out of the Coliseum. The Badgers will have a ton of fans in attendance and USC is not explosive on either side of the football. Wisconsin will be playing their backups quarterback, Braedyn Locke does have experience playing some last year. USC had Michigan on the ropes but could not stop the running attack and they eventually wore down on the final drive of the game. If Wisconsin cannot run in this game, they never will be able to and their long tradition is all but out the window. USC is the better team, but if Wisconsin can take care of the football, they will be able to keep this game around 10 points.

4 Unit Play. Take #196 Michigan Wolverines over Minnesota Golden Gophers (12p.m., Saturday, September 28 FOX) Minnesota is a poor man’s version of Michigan and the PJ Fleck style has run its course. This will be the first true road game for Minnesota this season and I do not see them staying within double digits in this game. Michigan is coming off a big win against USC last Saturday and I just feel they will be able to overpower Minnesota in this game. The Gophers are just 2-14 and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against Michigan.

4 Unit Play. Take #472 Dallas Cowboys over Baltimore Ravens (4:25p.m., Sunday, September 22 FOX) Both teams need this game badly, as Dallas does not want to fall to 1-2 on the season and Baltimore cannot afford to go 0-3. Dallas laid an egg last week against New Orleans, but I believe they will bounce back on Sunday. Baltimore seems to have major issues on the offensive side of the football, and I do believe Derek Henry is the right fit for this shotgun offense. Dallas did not lose a home game during the regular season in 2023, and I find it hard to believe they will lose two straight home games in 2024. Getting them at this number is too good to pass up.

4 Unit Play. Take #466 Las Vegas Raiders over Carolina Panthers (4:05p.m., Sunday, September 22 CBS) This is the home opener for the Raiders, and they are coming off an impressive win over the Ravens last Sunday. The Panthers have been the worst team in the league, and I do not believe Andy Dalton will be able to rectify all of their issues. The Raiders scored on their final four possessions last week and look for that to carryover into this week. Las Vegas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games when they are the favorite.

4 Unit Play. Take #388 Michigan Wolverines over USC Trojans (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 21 CBS) This line has come down and I do not see Michigan getting run out of their home stadium for the second time in four weeks. Michigan made a quarterback change and that should bring some life into this offense. USC was fortunate to beat LSU in the season opener, but we have seen that LSU is not that good this season. I still expect Michigan to control the trenches in this game and that will allow them to take this one right down to the wire. Michigan needs this game more and that is the deciding factor for this selection.

4 Unit Play. Take #312 Cincinnati Bearcats over Houston Cougars (12p.m., Saturday, September 21 FS1) Just not a fan of this Houston team, who has a new coach and already some bad losses on the year. Cincinnati has beaten Houston in the last 4 meetings (4-0 ATS as well) and are just a year ahead of Houston, who struggles to score points. Both teams want to start off conference play with a victory, but playing at home will allow the Bearcats to win by more than a touchdown.

10 Unit Play. Take #286 Kansas City Chiefs over Cincinnati Bengals (4:25p.m., Sunday, September 15 CBS) Don’t want to overreact to Week 1 of the regular season and Cincinnati has been known to lay eggs under Zac Taylor in the opening game. The Chiefs are the two-time defending champions and are coming off extra rest and I feel they will win this game by double digits. The Bengals have a lot of issues with their wide receivers and Joe Burrow played a terrible game last week. Cincinnati has been Kansas City’s nemesis for years and thus I feel the Chiefs will make to avenge those losses. Look for the Chiefs to get a lead in this game and use their fourth quarter pass rush to put away the Bengals.

3 Unit Play. Take #274 Jacksonville Jaguars -3 over Cleveland Browns (1p.m., Sunday, September CBS) No bet against DeShaun Watson is a bad bet these days. He was the worst contract in sports history with no end in sight. It appears he cannot play anymore. And if they cannot run the football effectively, they will lose this game by double-digits. Jacksonville led Miami 17-7 early and then struggled on offense and lost by a field goal. Jacksonville held Miami to just 20 points, and the Dolphins are a much better offensive team than is Cleveland. Jacksonville is 3-1 against Cleveland, and the Browns were just 3-6 in road games in 2024. Cleveland will need to win this game in other aspects besides their offense, and I do not see Jacksonville giving the game away in that fashion.

6 Unit Play. Take #193 Indiana Hoosiers -3 over UCLA Bruins (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 14 NBC) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY Both teams have new coaches, but Indiana hired a former head coach that has experience running a successful program and is a Nick Saben disciple. UCLA hired a former player with no head coaching experience and no coordinator coaching experience. Indiana returned a ton of game experience from last season and UCLA was lucky to win at Hawaii in Week 1. Indiana has not played anyone through two games, but I feel the way they are playing will build confidence for this program. UCLA has a brutal schedule and may go over a month without winning a game. Coaching will be the difference in this game.

3 Unit Play. Take #116 Wisconsin Badgers over Alabama Crimson Tide (12p.m., Saturday, September 14 FOX) Just feel this is too many points for a true road game in Big 10 Country. Alabama is just not the same team without Nick Saben, and they have not traveled to Big 10 Country to play a true road game since Joe Pa was still coaching. Wisconsin has not looked that good through two games thus far in 2024, but Alabama struggled to put away USF until very late in that game last week as well. The Badgers hung with Ohio State last year and I see them doing the same on Saturday morning. Wisconsin has a healthy quarterback, and they will make Jalen Milroe beat them through the air and I see them hanging around for 60 minutes.

3 Unit Play. Take #449 Los Angeles Rams over Detroit Lions (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 8 NBC) The Rams were sneaky good last season and should be even better in 2024. They have nailed the draft the last couple of years and that has allowed to get on the right side of the cap. They won 10 games last season, and I see them taking this game right down to the wire. Detroit is loaded as well, but I do not trust their coach in close games. Week One is always unpredictable with upsets and I feel this could be one of those games.

7 Unit Play. Take #465 Tennessee Titans +4 over Chicago Bears (1p.m., Sunday, September 8 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND The Bears are just not a team you can trust as a favorite when they are expected to perform. Tennessee has great wide out and if they get any type of quarterback play, they will likely win this game straight-up. Will Levis has a year of experience on Caleb Williams and that is a big factor that we will not overlook. Finally, Chicago is 2-8 outright in their last 10 opening games the last decade.

3 Unit Play. Take #382 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Colorado Buffaloes (7:30p.m., Saturday, September NBC) This is a now or never game for Nebraska to prove they can at least be a competent bowl team. They have been living in their past for most of this century and have gone through coach after coach with not much success after Frank Solich. They are the better team playing at home against a former rival that has numerous holes on both sides of the football. Colorado has a good quarterback and a great dual threat player in Travis Hunter. But they also have a terrible defense, and a terrible offensive line and Nebraska should feast on that. This is a game Nebraska needs to win by double digits, and they should in a primetime game.

3 Unit Play. Take #342 Iowa Hawkeyes over Iowa State Cyclones (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 7 CBS) We all know about the issues Iowa has had on offense over the years. Despite those, they have had great success against Iowa State in recent years winning 7 of the last 8 years. Iowa State had the more talented team in at least half of those games, but Iowa just has the mental edge over them. For what its worth, Iowa did put up 40 points last week against Illinois State in a shutout victory. Iowa returns a ton of talent from last year and people just continue to underestimate them, especially on defense. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 games against Iowa.

2 Unit Play. Take #164 Syracuse Orange over Ohio Bobcats (3:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 ACCN) Syracuse has hope this season with a new coach and a quarterback that started at Ohio State last season. The Orange has won their opening game three straight years including beating Ohio in a road game in 2021. The Bobcats return trip should be another 20+ point setback, as they are nothing like their MAC Championship team last season. They return hardily any starters on either side of the ball and are facing a team that is desperate to get some publicity. Cuse comes out in the home opener and dominates this game.

10 Unit Play. Take #186 Florida Gators over Miami Hurricanes (3:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 ABC) TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. This might be a make-or-break year for Coach Billy Napier but I am not a big fan of Mario Cristobal either. Florida did win a similar game in 2022 as a slight underdog against Utah in their home opener. QB Graham Mertz had a bounce back season in 2023 but this team fell apart when he was injured later in the year. He is back and should give them a stable offense. Miami has a solid QB in Cam Ward and returns a ton of talent, but that talent just finished 7-6 last season including losing 4 of their last 5 games. The Gators have been a great play as an underdog covering the spread in 19 of their last 27 games. Florida has won 2 of the last 3 games against Miami including a 23-point victory the last time these two teams met. Florida has a brutal schedule this season and this is a game they must get. We expect them to win straight-up with the home crowd playing a major part in their success.

3 Unit Play. Take #147 TCU Horned Frogs over Stanford Cardinal (10:30p.m., Friday, August 30 ESPN) Stanford is a mess and playing in the ACC will likely be more trouble than the benefits provided. TCU is 3-0 lifetime against Stanford and the Frogs remember their opening game last season and will not want a repeat of that performance. Stanford is 1-14 straight-up against FBS teams in their last 15 home games. The Cardinal do not have any homefield advantage whatsoever and TCU returns a ton of starters from last season. TCU had too much to overcome last season after making the Championship Game, but they will be back this season and win this game by double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #308 Nevada Wolf Pack over SMU Mustangs (8p.m., Saturday, August 24 CBSSN) SMU is a fringe top 25 team and Nevada is coming off back to back 2-10 seasons. The Pack made an upgrade at coaching, and I feel they will be able to keep this game under 20 points. This line has come down all week long and I concur that Nevada is the side to take in this game. A terrible Nevada team took Kansas to the wire last season. Coach Choate has brought some energy back into Reno and at the start the players and fan base have bought in (I live in Reno). Their starting quarterback played some last season and that should help them get just enough first downs and points. SMU would have covered this number in only 4 of their 14 games last season.

10 Unit Play. Take #102 Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 11 CBS) You can make a case for either team in this game, but we will side with the team that has the better defense along with the best quarterback in the league. Kyle Shannon has a tendency to freeze up in big games and I am just not sure Brody Purdy can carry him over the finish line. The Chiefs have had a great defense all season long with Chris Jones able to make plays and get to the quarterback. The 49ers will have their moments, but in the end the Chiefs will prevail and win their third Super Bowl in the last 5 years.

10 Unit Play. Take #319 Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens (3p.m., Sunday, January 28 CBS) The Ravens have the better all-around team, but the Chiefs have the best player on the field, and we will gladly back Mahomes and the points in this game. The Kansas City offense played their best game of the season last time out against Buffalo and I look for that to continue in this game as well. Baltimore has all the pressure on them, as QB Jackson will win his second straight MVP and need a Super Bowl to validate his outstanding career. The Chiefs have a strong defense that can cause issues for QB Jackson with their blitz schemes, and I look for them to take this one down to the wire. KC seems to have a knack for winning close games and Sunday should be no different.

10 Unit Play. Take #316 Detroit Lions over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3p.m., Sunday, January 21 NBC) NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The Buccaneers are a team that nobody wants to advance except for those in Florida and I see their season coming to an end on Sunday. Tampa Bay played well against Philadelphia last time out, but the two games prior they struggled against teams that did not even make the playoffs. Detroit will be rocking again for this game, as the Lions look to reach the conference championship round for the first time in over 30 years. The Lions have the more balanced offense this season and can beat you on the ground or through the air. Tampa Bay is reliant on the passing game and torching Philadelphia is one thing, but Detroit has a much better defense. These teams already met earlier this season with Detroit winning by a score of 20-6 at Raymond James Stadium. Detroit has been a story all season long in the NFL and that will continue with a double-digit victory at home. The Lions knocked off a hot team last week and will knock off another hot team on Sunday. This is the toughest ticket in the divisional round and the 12th man will also be a factor, as will the experience of Jared Goff (super bowl quarterback).

10 Unit Play. Take #144 Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins (8:15p.m., Saturday, January 13 Peacock) The Dolphins lost the division on Sunday Night Football and now must travel to play a night game against the Chiefs in chilly conditions. The temperature for this game will be around zero degrees and that will give the Chiefs a great advantage for this game. Miami is also banged up on defense with numerous injuries and I just do not see them coming away with a victory. These two teams met earlier this season with the Chiefs winning in London to make to 4 straight against the Dolphins. Kansas City has won 3 of their last 4 games and Miami just does not beat very many top tier teams. The Chiefs have their problems on offense, but they have a strong defense and a great home field advantage. Lay the points, as the Chiefs will win this game by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #476 Las Vegas Raiders over Denver Broncos (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 7 FOX) I feel that the Raiders want to win this game more than the Broncos. The Raiders have an interim coach that wants the job, and the Broncos benched their starting quarterback because they signed him to a terrible contract. Las Vegas has beaten Denver 7 straight games including week 1 of the 2023 regular season. Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Denver wants a better draft pick and we do not see them winning this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #465 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 7 CBS) The Packers find themselves in a similar situation to 2022, where they close out the season at home with a win and you’re in game. They will not make the same mistake as last year and dominate the Bears and win this game by double digits. Green Bay has beaten Chicago 9 straight times (9-0 ATS as well). Just do not trust Justin Fields to win consistently in this league and the Packers played much better on defense last week. Look for that to continue Sunday, as the Packers make the playoffs!

4 Unit Play. Take #473 Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans (1p.m., Sunday, January 7 CBS) The Jaguars did not finish the season on a high note, losing 4 straight games but are fortunate to close out the 2023 season against to terrible teams. They pounded Carolina last week with their backup quarterback and now get to face an equally bad Tennessee team. Jacksonville already beat them this season by 20 points and see this game following a similar path. The Titans will enter this game off 3 straight losses including a 23 point to Houston last Sunday. Jacksonville has won 3 straight games against Tennessee and has too much to play for to take this game lightly. If they win, they clinch the division and get to host a playoff game next weekend!

4 Unit Play. Take #125 Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks (4:05p.m., Sunday, January 31 FOX) Pittsburgh got some life last week by starting Mason Rudolph and I just feel they can keep the coaching streak of Mike Tomlin alive. He has never had a losing record and will need to win one of his last two games to finish 9-8. It might not happen this week, but I feel that they can take this one down to the wire. Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 15 road games.

4 Unit Play. Take #122 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints (1p.m., Sunday, January 31 FOX) These two teams are heading in opposite directions, as the Saints have lost 4 of their last 6 games. Tampa Bay has won 4 straight games and can almost lock up the division with a victory on Sunday at home. Baker Mayfield has been reborn of late, and he clearly is the better quarterback in this game. New Orleans is 2-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 divisional games.

4 Unit Play. Take #116 Jacksonville Jaguars over Carolina Panthers (1p.m., Sunday, January 31 CBS) Despite losing 4 straight games, the Jaguars are still in good shape to win the division and host a playoff game. Despite the Panthers rallying late against the Packers last week, they are still a bad team with a lame duck coach and a terrible roster. Just too much on the line for Jacksonville to play poorly again and expect the home team to win this one by double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #269 Georgia Bulldogs over Florida State Seminoles (4p.m., Saturday, December 30 ESPN) ORANGE BOWL Motivation will be on display for both teams, as the Bulldogs do not get a chance to go for a 3-peet. The Seminoles did not even make the 4 team playoff despite going undefeated from a power conference and they have been hearing for a month how they got robbed. The Seminoles are missing a ton of skill players for this game on offense, and I just do not see them being able to move the football against the Dawgs in this game. Georgia has the most talented team in the country, and they have a coach that knows the importance of playing well in this exhibition game. Georgia has won the Orange Bowl in 3 of their 4 trips to South Florida. I see a 35-10 type of score with the Bulldogs dominating this game from start to finish.

10 Unit Play. Take #258 Kentucky Wildcats over Clemson Tigers (12p.m., Friday, December 29 ESPN) GATOR BOWL, COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR SEC is better than the ACC and Kentucky is the more battle tested team in this game. The Wildcats appear to have more players available for this game with the Tigers having a bunch of players sitting out for this game. Kentucky should have their quarterback and running back for this game and will be able to move the football against the Tigers. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS in 2023 when they are an underdog. The long layoff will help them in this game.

Clemson’s streak of double digit wins already ended this season and I just do not see them being that motivated to play in this game. Their offense is just not as strong as it has been in year’s past. The Tigers defense was outstanding this season, but it came against weak competition and some of their talent will not be playing in this game. Motivation is the deciding factor, as Kentucky is happy to be here and travels well to their bowl games in the Southeast. With a total in the mid 40’s getting this many points with the underdog is too good to pass up.

4 Unit Play. Take #482 San Francisco 49ers over Baltimore Ravens (8:15p.m., Monday, December 25 ABC) The 49ers are clearly the team to beat when it comes to the Super Bowl and now get a chance to prove it on the field against the best teams the AFC has to offer. The 49ers are just better on both sides of the football and they want to make a statement in this game. Baltimore will be playing their second straight road game and must fly cross-country for this game. San Francisco has covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 home games when they are the favorite.

4 Unit Play. Take #472 Miami Dolphins over Dallas Cowboys (4:25p.m, Sunday, December 24 FOX) Dallas looked terrible last week against another AFC East team and expect Miami to use the same blueprint that Buffalo did. Dallas is just not the same team on the road compared to when playing at home. Dallas is likely going to be the No. 5 seed since the Eagles have a very easy schedule to close out the regular season. Miami takes this one.

4 Unit Play. Take #469 Jacksonville Jaguars over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:05p.m., Sunday, December 24 CBS) Just feel that Tampa Bay overachieved last week against a terrible Green Bay defense and will find it much harder to move the football this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars gagged last week at home against the Ravens, producing zero points in the first half despite moving the football up and down the field. Jacksonville has covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 road games (London game included). Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC teams. Jacksonville is desperate and needs this game in the worst way.

4 Unit Play. Take #454 Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (4:30p.m., Saturday, December 23 NBC) Just feel the Steelers have one more game in them. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as head coach of the Steelers, but 2023 will test that theory. Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and have gone 10-4 divisional home games played in the Steel City. Cincinnati has not won a divisional game this season (0-4) and I look for that to continue on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #330 Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (8:20p.m., Sunday, December 17 NBC) Getting a desperate Jaguars team at home on Sunday Night Football is too good to pass up. This is the Jaguars third straight game against the AFC North and they lost the first two in heartbreaking fashion. Trevor Lawrence played last week despite a bad ankle injury the week prior, but he struggled throwing 3 picks and was sacked 4 times. Jacksonville is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against Baltimore. The Ravens are 5-10 in their last 15 non division road games when they are the favorite. Trevor will play better on Sunday and we will collect in the process, as this is too many points for an 8-5 team to be getting at home.

4 Unit Play. Take #210 Boise State Broncos over UCLA Bruins (7:30p.m., Saturday, December 16 ABC) Boise State has hired their interim head coach and I expect them to rally and play well for him in this game. The Broncos have won 4 straight games, and they always seem to get up when playing power 5 schools from the west coast. Chip Kelly beat USC to keep his job for another year, but their offense did not do much this season and I expect them to struggle in this game as well against a strong Boise front. The Bruins will be missing some key people on defense and the Broncos will be the more motivated team in this game.

4 Unit Play. Take #126 Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 10 CBS) The Chiefs do not lose two games in a row under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and look for that trend to continue this week as well. Buffalo continues to be overvalued and their roster and coach is not as good as the public thinks it is. Kansas City has covered the spread in 7 of their last 11 games. Buffalo finds ways to lose close games all season long and look for that to continue on Sunday. The Chiefs need this game to stay in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and they will get it by close to double-digits.

10 Unit Play. Take #124 Los Angeles Chargers over Denver Broncos (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 10 CBS) The Broncos came back to reality last week and Russell Wilson could not rally them late despite having a first and goal to win this game. He threw 3 interceptions in that game and now must face a more talented Charger team in their second straight road game. Los Angeles has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 divisional home games. The last time Denver visited Sofi Stadium they lost 51-14 and the Chargers always seem to rally late in the season to get back into playoff contention.

4 Unit Play. Take #458 Pittsburgh Steelers over Arizona Cardinals (1p.m., Sunday, December 3 CBS) The Cardinals are not very good, and I believe that the Steelers were rejuvenated last week with a road win and a new offensive coordinator. This will be a tough task for Arizona to win a road game in the northeast in December when it will be cold outside. Pittsburgh has beaten Arizona four straight times (4-0 ATS) including in the super bowl. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is due for a blowout win and it will come on Sunday by double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #318 Alabama Crimson Tide over Georgia Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, December 2 CBS) SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME This likely will be a winner take all game, as Alabama looks to unseat Georgia for the second time in the last 3 SEC Championship games. Alabama was fortunate to survive last week against Auburn, but I believe they will take that momentum into this game. I believe Alabama has the better quarterback in this game, as Jalen Milroe can beat you with his arm or his legs. Alabama’s offense live has been playing much better of late and I just believe Georgia lost too much talent from last year to run the table in 2023 without suffering a loss. Georgia has played an easy schedule this season without having to face Oklahoma in the nonconference portion of the season and they will hit adversity in this game. Alabama has won 7 of the last 8 games in this matchup and they will win and march onto the College Football Playoff.

4 Unit Play. Take #313 Boise State Broncos over UNLV Rebels (3p.m., Saturday, December 2 FOX) MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Who would have believed at the start of that UNLV would be hosting the Mountain West Championship Game! Now they get to face the best team in the league since they joined the Mountain West and look for Boise State to finish the season with 4 straight wins. The Broncos have seen much improvement since making a coaching change and UNLV is coming off a bad home loss to San Jose State last time out. UNLV has overachieved much of the season but look for them to come back to reality on Saturday.

6 Unit Play. Take #308962 Montana St -2.5 over North Dakota St (3:00p.m., Saturday December 2 ESPN+) FCS Playoffs. Completely shocked on why this game dropped to 2.5 and as I type one book moved to -2 so maybe wait to throw down on some FCS Playoff game. Both teams can score and score quickly but in the second half is when I see the Bobcats control the game and again, I'm laying this low number. As long as the Bobcats can control the Bison QB Cam Miller I see them advancing in the FCS Playoffs.