Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-24 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State +1.5 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take 309002 North Dakota State Bison +1.5 over South Dakota State Jackrabbits (8p.m., Saturday, October 19 ESPN2) FCS GAME OF THE YEAR The FCS's version of Alabama-Georgia goes off tonight when the S. Dakota State Jackrabbits travel to the FargoDome to take on the N. Dakota State Bison. S. Dakota St. is #1 in the country and the hosting N. Dakota St. is #2. The Jackrabbits are 6th in the FCS averaging 39.0 ppg off of 439.8 yards per game of total offense. They lead the FCS in yards per carry with an impressive 7.3 average and 15 TDs. N. Dakota State is 5th in the FCS with 3,109 total yards of offense and 13th in scoring offense with 35.3 ppg and 9th in scoring defense, allowing 17.6 ppg. They are lead by the 4-year starter Cam Miller, who is poised to become the NDSU all-time leader in passing yards as he currently has 7,974 and trails the leader Easton Stick by 719 yards. Miller's impending achievement becomes even more impressive when you realize that caliber of talent the Bison have produced at QB (Carson Wentz and Trey Lance most recently). Miller has the accuracy of a sniper, completing 121-158 76.6% for 1,504 yards, with 12 TDs and 0 INTs through 7 games. SDSU has won the Dakota Marker (the annual trophy) for the last four regular season meetings, as well as in the 2022 FCS Championship game. This game feels like Miller gets to exorcise his Jackrabbit demons. While SDSU's defense is still quite good, they're giving up 200.7 ypg through the air, 32 more yards than last season, while their passing output has decreased from 222 to 194.7 ypg in 2024. NDSU's offense is more potent than Incarnate Word, who put up 351 passing yards and 419 total yards, along with 24 points. The Bison have been a scoring machine when they get into the redzone, converting 72.9% of those trips into touchdowns. Cam Miller has a dangerous go-to man in WR Bryce Lance, who has hauled in 35 catches for 418 yards and 5 TDs. That connection is part of the reason that the Bison have a 58% conversion rate on 3rd-down, 2nd-best in the FCS and when they need to, 8-12 (75%) on 4th-down conversions as well. While they don't do this often, NDSU averages 47.4 per punt. With the emotions of this massive rivalry game running rampant, I like taking a seasoned veteran leader like the Bison's QB Cam Miller who will be able to keep their cool. Take the home dog North Dakota State and good luck! |
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10-12-24 | Ole Miss v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
8 Unit Play. Take #188 LSU Tigers +3.5 over Ole Miss Rebels (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 ABC) COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR Ole Miss won this game last year in a shootout (55-49), but I just do not believe they are that much better than a 4-1 LSU team. Playing a night game in Baton Rouge is always a challenge for the visiting team and we will take the points on Saturday night. LSU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when they have single SEC revenge (lost to this team in the previous game). The loser of this game will likely not be able to make the SEC Championship Game and since this game is at home it is more important to LSU. The stats may favor Ole Miss on defense, but keep it mind LSU has played a much more difficult schedule and does not have a bad home loss to Kentucky on their schedule. Both teams will have their moments on offense, but I just trust Brian Kelly more as a head coach, especially when adversity hits. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 games in this matchup, including the last 4. Finally, LSU has won 6 straight home conference openers. |
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09-14-24 | Indiana -3 v. UCLA | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
6 Unit Play. Take #193 Indiana Hoosiers -3 over UCLA Bruins (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 14 NBC) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY Both teams have new coaches, but Indiana hired a former head coach that has experience running a successful program and is a Nick Saben disciple. UCLA hired a former player with no head coaching experience and no coordinator coaching experience. Indiana returned a ton of game experience from last season and UCLA was lucky to win at Hawaii in Week 1. Indiana has not played anyone through two games, but I feel the way they are playing will build confidence for this program. UCLA has a brutal schedule and may go over a month without winning a game. Coaching will be the difference in this game. |
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08-31-24 | Miami-FL v. Florida +2.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #186 Florida Gators over Miami Hurricanes (3:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 ABC) TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. This might be a make-or-break year for Coach Billy Napier but I am not a big fan of Mario Cristobal either. Florida did win a similar game in 2022 as a slight underdog against Utah in their home opener. QB Graham Mertz had a bounce back season in 2023 but this team fell apart when he was injured later in the year. He is back and should give them a stable offense. Miami has a solid QB in Cam Ward and returns a ton of talent, but that talent just finished 7-6 last season including losing 4 of their last 5 games. The Gators have been a great play as an underdog covering the spread in 19 of their last 27 games. Florida has won 2 of the last 3 games against Miami including a 23-point victory the last time these two teams met. Florida has a brutal schedule this season and this is a game they must get. We expect them to win straight-up with the home crowd playing a major part in their success. |
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01-07-24 | Montana v. South Dakota State OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-23 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308925 Over 48.5 in Montana Grizzles vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits (2p.m., Sunday, January 7 ABC) We have cleaned up with the over all through the FCS Playoffs and will look to cash in one more time. We hit the over in the Grey Cup as well and feel this will also be a high scoring game. Montana is facing a juggernaut that has won 28 straight games and they know that they must score in the high twenties to have any chance in this game. Both coaches have had three weeks to prepare for this game and that will benefit the offensive minded coaches. Weather will not be a factor in this game with sunny skies expected. Both teams average in the thirties and SDSU has numerous playmakers on offense, and I expect them to hit their seasonal average today. We will not worry if South Dakota State can cover this big number and instead just collect with the over. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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12-29-23 | Clemson v. Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #258 Kentucky Wildcats over Clemson Tigers (12p.m., Friday, December 29 ESPN) GATOR BOWL, COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR SEC is better than the ACC and Kentucky is the more battle tested team in this game. The Wildcats appear to have more players available for this game with the Tigers having a bunch of players sitting out for this game. Kentucky should have their quarterback and running back for this game and will be able to move the football against the Tigers. Kentucky is 3-1 ATS in 2023 when they are an underdog. The long layoff will help them in this game. Clemson’s streak of double digit wins already ended this season and I just do not see them being that motivated to play in this game. Their offense is just not as strong as it has been in year’s past. The Tigers defense was outstanding this season, but it came against weak competition and some of their talent will not be playing in this game. Motivation is the deciding factor, as Kentucky is happy to be here and travels well to their bowl games in the Southeast. With a total in the mid 40’s getting this many points with the underdog is too good to pass up. |
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12-15-23 | Albany v. South Dakota State OVER 45.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308921 Over in Albany Great Danes @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits (7p.m., Friday, December 15 ESPN2) I refuse to call them UAlbany and feel that gets annoying on the broadcast. SDSU has won 27 games in a row, and this is too big of number to try and cover. Thus, we will side with the over for a couple of factors. First, weather could be a factor in this game with rain early then possible snow late. I feel that benefits the offense since they know where they are going. Both teams are strong against the run and I do not expect either team, especially Albany, to have any success running the football. That means the ball will be in the air a lot tonight and that also stops the clock much more than it would if both teams were running the football successfully. Both teams have strong quarterbacks and Reese Poffenbarger hit numerous big plays last week against Idaho. Finally, this will be Albany’s ninth road game this season and I expect them to struggle containing South Dakota State on offense. The Jackrabbits should be able to score close to 40 points in this game and I see the total points in the mid-fifties. |
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12-09-23 | Albany v. Idaho OVER 51 | Top | 30-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #308909 Take Over 51.5 Albany at Idaho (10:00p.m., Saturday December 9 ESPN+) FCS Game of the Year. Yes, I know Albany defense is no joke but the fire power on the offensive side of Idaho will give us the total victory. Idaho needed overtime against Southern Illinois to advance in this game and I just don't see them scoring only 20 points Saturday night. The Albany Great Danes have won 6-Straight, and their team defense is the reason why they are still playing football in December. Albany put up 41 points last week against Richmond and I'm a bit shocked that this total has dropped 3-points. Should be a tight game from the start and I see both offenses moving the ball and wouldn't shock me to see the winner score 30 plus points or more. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 94 h 0 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #142 Michigan Wolverines over Ohio State Buckeyes (12p.m., Saturday, November 25 FOX) This game is for all the marbles with the winner winning the Big 10 Championship Game next week and a ticket to the playoffs. Ohio State has been one dimensional on offense and whoever runs the football better wins this game (happened over 20 years in a row). Ohio State is 8th in the Big 10 in rushing this season. I feel Michigan is better in all 3 phases of the game especially on special teams. Ohio State has Marvin Harrison, but their quarterback is subpar and I just do not believe he can beat them with his arm. Michigan against the world continues, as the Wolverines advance to the playoff with a double-digit victory at the Big House. |
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11-18-23 | Utah +2 v. Arizona | Top | 18-42 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #367 Utah Utes over Arizona Wildcats (2:30p.m., Saturday, November 18 PAC12N) TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. Arizona has been on a roll and will enter this game having won 4 straight games. This will be the toughest team they faced in their last 5 games, as Utah will not self-destruct like UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State did. The Utes are extremely well coached and I feel the Wildcats are playing a little over their heads at the moment. They have had a great season, but this is a team that lost to Mississippi State earlier this season (just fired their coach). The spread tells me that the Wildcats are not as good as their record would indicate, and reality will hit them in this game. Jedd Fisch is a hot coaching commodity and should win Pac 12 Coach of the Year, but the overachievers take a step back on Saturday. Utah has beaten Arizona six straight times (5-1 ATS). Utah is 15-3 in their last 18 road games when they are an opening line underdog. |
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11-11-23 | Michigan -4.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 92 h 37 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #149 Michigan Wolverines over Penn State Nittany Lions (12p.m., Saturday, November 11 FOX) We are fading the Penn State offense in this game. Michigan has not been tested and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season long. But Penn State looked terrible against Ohio State, and I believe Michigan has a better defense than the Buckeyes. The Wolverines have won the last two games and are 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 ATS stretching that out to 9 games. Michigan has an us against the world mentality with all the outside noise going on around the program. JJ McCarthy is a much better player than Drew Allar and the offensive weapons are much better for the Wolverines. Penn State got a raw deal with this being a 12 p.m. game instead of a white out game at night. That edge allows Michigan to dominate this game and win it by double digits. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 92 h 31 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #326 Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (12p.m., Saturday, October 21 FOX) Big 10 Game of the Year. Getting Ohio State playing at the Horseshoe at this line does not happen very often. Penn State has looked impressive this season, but they have not played anyone of significance and will not be battle tested for this game. Many people have been critical of Ohio State QB McCord, but he has an 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio and Penn State does not have a veteran quarterback either. Penn State has lost 10 of their last 11 games to Ohio State including 6 games in a row. The Lions have not gotten many explosive plays this season and they will need a bunch in order to beat Ohio State. Coach Franklin does not win many road games against elite teams and Saturday should be no different. DC Manny Diaz never seems to live up to the hype and I always like fading him in big spots. Ohio State has great wide receivers and many of their running backs should be back for this game. The Buckeyes have improved greatly on defense and Penn State has not seen a unit this strong yet this season. Ohio State is accustomed to winning these type of games and Penn State once again in not in that class to knock off big teams in true road games. Penn State is on a monster ATS run but I look for that to end on Saturday, as Ohio State wins this game by double-digits. |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State -3.5 | Top | 24-36 | Win | 100 | 103 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #190 Oregon State Beavers over UCLA Bruins (8p.m., Saturday, October 14 FOX) We went against UCLA at the Rose Bowl last week and were a tough luck loser, as Wazzou offense played terribly in the second half. Now that makes this play at Oregon State much stronger in favor of the Beavers. Oregon State is 14-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. They have already beaten Utah at home, and they have a similar quarterback situation that UCLA does (freshman on the road). The Beavers are on a rampage and want to knock off all the teams leaving the conference next season. The fan base is that much more motivated, especially when playing UCLA, a team that started the dominos falling. UCLA has a strong defense, but they will not be able to win that game on defense alone. Oregon State is the best team that have played thus far, and they will not be up to the challenge. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #394 Alabama Crimson Tide over Ole Miss Rebels (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 23 CBS) TOP NCAA PLAY OF THE WEEK Many pundits and fans are throwing dirt on the grave of Alabama and Nick Saban, but I am not one of them. They have major issues at quarterback, but I feel they will right the ship on Saturday and win this game by double digits. Nick Saban is not a fan of Lane Kiffin, and he is 28-3 lifetime when facing his former assistants. Ole Miss never has a strong defense and tries to win most of their games by outscoring their opponents. They have beaten Alabama once in the past 16 meetings, and they just do not have the depth of a Nick Saban team. This is the game that Alabama will right the ship, and getting them at home with less than a touchdown is too good to pass up. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
7 Unit Play. Take #176 Florida Gators over Tennessee Volunteers (7p.m., Saturday, September 16 ESPN) The SEC appears to be way down this season and giving this many points on the road is not a recipe for success. Florida has dominated this series, winning 16 of the last 18 matchups. Tennessee has not won in Gainesville since 2003. Tennessee was loaded last year and still only beat Florida by 5 points in 2022 and that game was in Knoxville. The underdog has dominated Florida games going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 lined games. This is a rivalry game and Florida should be motivated to put on a good show and get their coach and quarterback off the hot seat. |
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01-02-23 | Mississippi State v. Illinois | Top | 19-10 | Win | 100 | 139 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #277 Mississippi State Bulldogs over Illinois Fighting Illini (11a.m., Monday, January 2 ESPN2) ReliaQuest Bowl. Bowl Game of the Year. Just feel Mississippi State wants to send out the pirate with a win. The Bulldogs have most of their key players and have promoted from within to take over for Mike Leach next season. Mississippi State is making their 13th straight bowl appearance and I feel that Illinois got exposed during the second half of the season. They lost 3 of their last 4 games including two home games against so-so teams in Michigan State and Purdue. The Illini have a strong defense, but their competition was not of SEC caliber offenses, and they will be without CB Witherspoon for this game. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Expect a low scoring game that the Bulldogs win straight-up and end the Mike Leach era on a positive note. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #398 Baylor Bears over TCU Horned Frogs (12p.m., Saturday, November 19 FOX) It end’s tonight! TCU’s magical season comes to an end on Saturday in Waco, TX. The Frogs are coming off an impressive win on Saturday at Texas and now must go on the road again to play Baylor. Back-to-Back road games is always a tough bill to overcome and this will be one of the best defenses they will face in 2022. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games between TCU and Baylor. The Bears are 21-4 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 27 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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10-22-22 | Purdue +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -104 | 99 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #401 Purdue Boilermakers over Wisconsin Badgers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 22 ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year These two teams are heading in opposite directions. This is the time that Big 10 West teams can get their revenge on Wisconsin, a team that has dominated this west division since the inception. The Badgers have played two terrible teams the last two weeks and gone 1-1. Both Michigan State and Northwestern have terrible defenses and that is not the case with Purdue. The Boilermakers have won 4 straight games and could easily be 7-0 on the season. They have a much better passing game and have a defense that can stop the running attack of Wisconsin. This play is more about going against Wisconsin, a team that fired their coach 2.5 weeks ago and has a coaching staff that does not get along well the uncertainty of their coaching futures. Two more Badger players entered the transfer portal this week and I do not see things getting any better down the stretch. They will win some game because the Big 10 West is bad, but you just cannot count on them to win game against similar or better talented teams. Wisconsin has scored over 17 points just 6 times dating back to last year and they are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games in Madison. Purdue is the second-best team Wisconsin will have played this season and loss No. 5 will happen on Saturday. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games between Purdue and Wisconsin. The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #169 Louisville Cardinals over Syracuse Orange (8p.m., Saturday, September 3 ACCN) Just do not see much hope for Syracuse and Dino Babers turning things around. He is 3-15 in the ACC the last 2 years and is facing a team that has had his number of late. Louisville has covered the spread against Syracuse in 7 of the last 8 meetings. That included winning 41-3 last year and their margin of victory in the last 8 games is 31 points. Louisville picked up some key transfers this season and Syracuse has a new offensive coordinator that might not fit their skill players system. The favorite has covered the spread in this game 8 straight meetings. |
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08-27-22 | Vanderbilt -7.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 63-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #311 Vanderbilt Commodores over Hawaii Warriors (10:30p.m., Saturday, August 27 CBSSN) This is more a play against Hawaii instead of liking the worst team in the SEC. The Warriors are in a major rebuild having lost their coach due to off the field issues. Now former quarterback Timmy Chang is the head coach, and he will struggle to keep this team competitive in 2022. Hawaii returned just 6 starters and only 2 of them are on defense. Vanderbilt has the better defense and running game and that should be good enough to win this game by double digits. They lost to an FCS team in their opening game last year and need to avoid a similar fate to open the season this year. Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Hawaii is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. |
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01-08-22 | Montana State +8 v. North Dakota State | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 41 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308911 Montana State Bobcats over North Dakota State Bison (12p.m., Saturday, January 8 ESPN2) This line has been trending down and with this long of a layoff I expect his to be a low scoring competitive game. The over under in this game is just 42 points and that is a low total for a team to cover more than a touchdown spread. NDSU is solid on both sides of the football but their offense is not as dynamic as it has been in previous seasons. The Bobcats have the more impressive resume in 2021 with a ton of skill players. Montana State is starting a freshman quarterback but he has the ability to beat you with his legs and arm. Expect this to be a defensive battle and we will grab the points in this championship game. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama UNDER 57.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #273 Under in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide (Friday, December 31 3:30 p.m. ESPN) COTTON BOWL Cincinnati has been given little chance to win this game, but they are experienced on both sides of the football. Both teams feature a defensive minded head coach and I believe Cincinnati will have to keep the scoring low to have a chance to win this game. Cincinnati has gone under the posed total in 24 of their last 30 games (1 push) when they are an underdog. Alabama has gone under the posted total in 3 of their last 5 bowl games (1 push). |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -4.5 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 215 h 33 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #257 Tennessee Volunteers over Purdue Boilermakers (3p.m., Thursday, December 30 ESPN) MUSIC CITY BOWL Just believe Purdue underachieved this season and now will be without David Bell and George Karlaftis for this game. Throw in the face this game is played in Nashville giving the Volunteers a big home field advantage and I expect Tennessee to win this game by double-digits. Purdue was in this same bowl in 2018 and got run over by a so-so SEC team and that same situation presents itself on Thursday. Tennessee held their own in the SEC West and has a first year head coach that wants to finish off the season the right way. They have won 3 of their last 4 games (only loss to Georgia) and should be able to outscore Purdue in this game. Purdue struggles to score points and they need their defense to create situations for their offense. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. Purdue is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 171 h 14 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #223 Under in San Diego State Aztecs vs UTSA Roadrunners (7:30p.m., Tuesday, December 21 ESPN) San Diego State has a great defense and a terrible offense. That sets up a strong play with the under in this game. UTSA has gone under the posted total in 12 of their last 16 games (1 push) in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. SDSU has gone under the posted total in 21 of their last 28 games played as an underdog. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #318 Alabama Crimson Tide over Georgia Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, December 4 CBS) Georgia has the best defense in the country but they have not played a quarterback like Bryce Young. Alabama will be able to move the football and put-up points against this defense and I am not sold on how Georgia will respond when that occurs. Stetson Bennett is a game manager, and I was not impressed with him last season. He has been efficient this season but has not faced any pressure. Alabama needs this game to make the college football playoff and Georgia will still make the playoff even if they lose this game. That is a big difference and will allow Alabama to win this game straight-up. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between Georgia and Alabama. The Crimson Tide is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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11-27-21 | Indiana v. Purdue -15 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 74 h 11 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #174 Purdue Boilermakers over Indiana Hoosiers (3:30 p.m., Saturday, November 27 FS1) BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR It can be dangerous laying this many points in the Old Oaken Bucket Game, but Indiana is the worst team in the Big Ten. Injuries have taken their toll on this team, and they have scored over 15 points just one time since September. The Hoosiers are just 2-9 ATS and are one of a handful of teams without a conference win in 2021. Purdue has covered the spread in 4 straight games against Indiana and are 9-3 ATS dating back to 2008. For Purdue to win and cover they need to take care of the football on offense and pressure the Indiana quarterback. If they do that, they should win by 20+ points. Purdue is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Indiana in West Lafayette. |
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11-19-21 | Air Force v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 41-39 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #322 Nevada Wolf Pack over Air Force Falcons (9p.m., Friday, November 19 FS1) Nevada should be able to bounce back and move the football on the ground and through the air on Friday. They had a devastating loss to San Diego State last Saturday but expect them to bounce back playing a team that will have trouble stopping the pass. Nevada defense will give up some yards on the ground but hopefully they will come up big in the redzone and hold the Falcons to field goal attempts. Air Force will be playing their second straight road game and that will catch up to them in this game. Nevada is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference home games. The Force is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-13-21 | Miami-FL -2.5 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #201 Miami Hurricanes over Florida State Seminoles (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 13 ESPN) Remember when this game was must watch TV? That is certainly not the case now, but Miami has quietly been playing decent football of late. They have won 3 straight games and their last two losses before than just can by a combined 5 points. Miami has won 4 straight in this rivalry including winning last year by a score of 52-10. Florida State will enter off two double-digits losses (Clemson should not have been) and losing has taken its toll on this program. They cannot seem to find the right coach and they will be lucky to win one of their three remaining games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games between Miami and FSU. The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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10-30-21 | Penn State v. Ohio State -18.5 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #190 Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 30 ABC) Ohio State has been rolling of late winning 5 straight games and all of them have come by more points than tonight’s posted number. Penn State could not run the football against Illinois, and they are gassed after losing to the Illini in 9 overtimes. QB Clifford did return from an injury against Iowa but did not look good, throwing for just 165 yards on 56% completions. Penn State is going to have to score points to stay in this game and I just do not believe that is something they can do at this stage of the season. Ohio State still has a great chance to make the college football playoff if they win out and win convincingly. They have scored at least 52 points in their last four games and if they hit that number on Saturday, they will win this game with ease. Penn State is 4-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 26 games following a loss in their previous game. Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in tier last 18 games following an ATS win in their previous game. The James Franklin to USC rumors heat up and Penn State continues to lose games, this one coming by 20+ points. |
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10-23-21 | Rice v. UAB -23 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #386 UAB Blazers over Rice Owls (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 23 ESPN+) UAB has dominated this series of late, winning 4 straight games. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions with Rice being blown out last week by UTSA and barely beating Southern Miss the week before. All 4 of Rice’s losses have come by at least 21 points. The Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 games and pitched a shutout last time out against SMU. Rice is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in Birmingham. UAB is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 home games. |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State -10 v. New Mexico | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 27 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #155 Colorado State Rams over New Mexico Lobos (7p.m., Saturday, October 16 Stadium) Just feel these two teams are going in opposite directions. The Rams are dominated the Lobos over the last decade going 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 against the spread. New Mexico really has trouble moving the football averaging just over 200 yards per game during this 4-game losing streak. They are averaging just 7 points per game over this losing streak. The favorite is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 games between Colorado State and New Mexico. The Lobos are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following an loss in their previous game. |
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10-09-21 | Oklahoma -3 v. Texas | Top | 55-48 | Win | 100 | 88 h 28 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #379 Oklahoma Sooners over Texas Longhorns (12p.m., Saturday, October 9 ABC) The Cotton Bowl is the site for this annual edition of the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma has just been getting by of late and thus the spread in this game has dropped to around a field goal. Oklahoma has won 9 of the last 12 meetings and if they win today, they should be able to cover this small spread as well. I still believe Oklahoma’s best football is still ahead of them and it will start on Saturday. |
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10-02-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #120 Purdue Boilermakers over Minnesota Golden Gophers (12p.m., Saturday, October 2 BTN) Purdue has some injuries on the offensive side of the football, but this is a game Coach Brohm wants badly. Purdue lost to Minnesota last year when a go-ahead touchdown was called back on a terrible offensive pass interference call. Everyone who saw that play was upset with the call and payback will be coming this Saturday. Minnesota is coming off a terrible loss to Bowling Green last week, a terrible MAC team that was a 30+ point underdog. QB Tanner Morgan has not been himself so far in 2021 and this will be the best defense he has had to face so far in 2021. The home team is 11-5 ATS (1 push) in the last 17 games between Minnesota and Purdue. This will be a defensive battle, but Purdue wants it more and wins it by double-digits. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #364 Stanford Cardinal over UCLA Bruins (6p.m., Saturday, September 25 PAC 12 Network) UCLA just cannot handle prosperity and now must travel on the road for this first time in 2021 after a bad loss to Fresno State last Saturday. Stanford has been going along nicely since losing to Kansas State in their first game of the season. Once Tanner McKee has been inserted into the line-up this team has gelled and has been able to score points including 42 against USC two weeks ago. The Cardinal will be playing their first home game after 7 straight road games. Stanford has owned this series under David Shaw winning 12 of the last 13 meetings (11-2 ATS). Just do not think UCLA is back yet and laying points on the road in a conference game is never a spot to back them. UCLA found a way to lose last week, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. UCLA is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. Stanford is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdog. |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -10 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 4 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Marshall Thundering Herd over East Carolina Pirates (6p.m., Saturday, September 18 Stadium) East Carolina blew the game last week against South Carolina and now must face a better Marshall team in their first true road game of the season. East Carolina has scored just 36 total points in two games this season. Marshall has been lighting up the scoreboard in their two games this season and has received impressive play from QB Grant Wells, who has thrown for over 300 yards in both games this season. The Pirates are 4-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 nonconference games. The favorite has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games between these former rivals. East Carolina cannot score enough points to keep this deficit in single digits. |
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09-11-21 | NC State -2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #361 NC State Wolfpack over Mississippi State Bulldogs (7p.m., Saturday, September 11 ESPN2) This is a classic case of an SEC team playing an ACC team at home and thus the number does not fully reflect the talent disparity between the two teams. Mike Leach is not Lane Kiffin when it comes to offenses in the SEC, the Bulldogs were not able to run the ball at all against Louisiana Tech last week. The La Tech Bulldogs blew that game last week being outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter and missing a field goal at the buzzer to lose by 1 point. NC State has two strong running backs, and they return their entire secondary. This will not shutdown the Bulldogs passing attack but I expect them to be able to hold their own. NC State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against ACC teams. |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #217 Nevada Wolf Pack over California Golden Bears (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 4 FS1) Just believe Nevada is better on both sides of the football, especially on offense. The Wolf Pack have an NFL prospect in Carson Strong and will have a bunch of fans at this game trying to get away from the smokey conditions in Reno. Cal is just 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games as a home favorite and this line has the wrong team favored. The Bears went just 1-3 last season and all 3 of those losses were against bad teams. This is the year Nevada is expected to make a run for the MWC Championship and it will start on Saturday. This line is just a Power 5 team playing at home so the public will jump on that number. In reality Nevada has better talent, and they will win this game straight-up. |
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05-16-21 | Sam Houston State +5.5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take 308903 Sam Houston State Bearkats over South Dakota State Jackrabbits (2p.m., Sunday, May 16 ABC) The line is going up and I feel that the Bearkats have what it takes to take this game down to the wire. The Missouri Valley Conference was not as strong this season, but still got credit based on the strength of NDSU this decade. The Jackrabbits are the best team in the league, but this will be far and away the most explosive team they have seen in 2021. San Houston State had no business winning last week against James Madison, but they scored 28 points in under 3 minutes and held on against James Madison last week. They have a huge edge in this game since it is being played in Texas and they can bus to the game (about a 3-hour trip). This game will go down to the wire and we will come out on top with whoever pulls it out by a field goal. |
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05-08-21 | James Madison +1 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308973 James Madison Dukes over Sam Houston State Bearkats (2:30p.m., Saturday, May 8 ABC) A battle of unbeatens is set to do battle at Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, TX on Saturday with a television broadcast on ABC. The Dukes are outstanding at ball control and I feel they have the better defense in this game. James Madison honestly believes they should be hosting this game and expect them to make a statement in this game as they advance onto the championship game (also being played in Texas). SHS is coming off a big win last week against North Dakota State, the dominate team over the last decade in FCS and I just do not know how much left they will have for this game. NDSU was nowhere near as strong this season and SHS still had to hold onto dear life to beat them. JMU has a much better quarterback than what NDSU showed last week and that will be the different today. |
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05-02-21 | North Dakota v. James Madison -2.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308958 James Madison Dukes over North Dakota Fighting Hawks (6p.m., Sunday, May 2 ESPN2) Just feel the Hawks are getting to much publicity in this game due to the conference that they played in. North Dakota State destroyed them on March 20, and they have not been able to play many games since then. James Madison is not flashy at the quarterback position and they are rock solid on defense and I just do not see them losing this game at home. The Dukes were upset when they were given a No. 3 seed in the FCS Playoffs and expect them to march onto the final four with a victory on Sunday at home. We will lay the small points and expect close to a double-digit win. |
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04-24-21 | Southern Illinois +4.5 v. Weber State | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308919 Southern Illinois Salukis over Weber State Wildcats (4p.m., Saturday, April 24 ESPNU) The Wildcats were a top 5 team going into the spring season, went undefeated and yet are only around a 4-point favorite against a 5-3 team. How is that possible? That is because they have not looked that impressive against fledging team that did not make the playoffs. Their last 4 wins have come by a combined 18 points and Southern Illinois is the strongest team that they will have faced in the spring season. Southern Illinois has wins over Northern Iowa and North Dakota State this season and played in the highly competitive Missouri Valley Conference. Weber State is just playing with fire each and every week and that will bite them on Saturday. Southern Illinois wins this game straight-up and getting points is just icing on the cake. |
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04-17-21 | Richmond +12 v. James Madison | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308995 Richmond Spiders over James Madison Dukes (2p.m., Saturday, April 17 Flo Football) The two best teams in the CAA are finally set to do battle Saturday in Harrisonburg, VA. Both teams have had the last two weeks off and both teams are undefeated in 2021. I just do not see a blowout in this game since it means more to Richmond with regards to making the FCS Playoffs. Both teams are strong on offense scoring over 30 points per game and I just do not believe the Dukes will be able to completely shutdown Joe Mancuso and company. This is the toughest opponent James Madison will have played in 2021 and while I see them winning, I expect a battle for 60 minutes. Grab the points in this battle of unbeaten teams. |
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03-27-21 | Elon v. Richmond -11 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308958 Richmond Spiders -11 over Elon Phoenix (4p.m., Saturday, March 27 NBC Sports Washington/FLO SPORTS) FCS GAME OF THE YEAR We have faded the Phoenix the last two weeks and easily won both games and now we look to complete the trifecta on Saturday. These two teams met two weeks ago in Elon and Richmond won that game 38-14. The selection just comes down to the fact the Phoenix are using their third or fourth string quarterback. Neither one is any good and expect the Spiders to stock the box and force them to beat them through the air, something they have not been capable of doing in 2021. Elon is getting beat up and they are 1-4 on the season with 3 of those losses coming by at least 21 points. Richmond will dominate this game for 60 minutes and win by 20+ points. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson -7 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #334 Clemson Tigers over Ohio State Buckeyes (8p.m., Friday, January 1 ESPN) Sugar Bowl This is a rematch of the semi-final game last year in which questionable officiating allowed Clemson to emerge victorious. But in 2020 I just do not see the same Ohio State team that have been so explosive in year’s past. Clemson had a 541-263 yardage edge against Notre Dame and that game was never in doubt after the first quarter. Everyone thinks Ohio State will be motivated for revenge and the diss that Dabo Sweeny gave them by ranking them No. 11 in the coaches poll, but in the end talent wins out. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest +6.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -108 | 189 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #312 Wake Forest Demon Deacons over Wisconsin Badgers (12p.m., Wednesday, December 30 ESPN) Duke Mayo Bowl We have faded Wisconsin in their last two games and easily covered both games. Wisconsin has quarterback issues, banged up wide receivers, and running backs that are not explosive. They have a solid defense, but they have yet to face an offense as up-tempo and explosive like Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are coming off a bad performance against the Cardinals, but that final score is a little misleading (Louisville scored 17 points in the last 17 minutes of that game). Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. If Wake Forest can take care of the football, they should be able to take this game down to the wire and win it straight-up. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon v. USC -3 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #252 USC Trojans over Oregon Ducks (8p.m., Friday, December 18 FOX) Oregon was a late add to this game after Washington did not have enough healthy players. The Trojans have a major edge getting to play this game at their home stadium and I just do not trust Oregon enough to keep this close. Both teams have played down to the level of their competition, but USC tends to pull away late, whereas Oregon often loses close games. Losing to Cal and Oregon State is embarrassing for the Ducks and now they must face a team with better talent and experience than what they have. Oregon is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. USC is 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between Oregon and USC. |
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12-05-20 | UCLA +3.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 25-18 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #383 UCLA Bruins over Arizona State Sun Devils (10:30p.m., Saturday, December 5 FS1) Just cannot trust Arizona State laying points in this game. The Sun Devils have been off since November 7 and now have to play a team that is getting better in UCLA. The Bruins are 2-2 and both of their losses went down to the wire and I see them winning this game straight-up. UCLA was a mess last year but dominated ASU leading by over 30 points at one point in that game. The Bruins may also get back Dorian Thompson-Robinson and that will only enhance their chances of winning this game. UCLA is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games against Arizona State. |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa -13 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -113 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #148 Iowa Hawkeyes over Nebraska Cornhuskers (1p.m., Friday, November 27 FOX) The Hawkeyes have righted the ship winning 3 straight games in blowout fashion. Nebraska is terrible on both sides of the ball and I do not see things getting any better in this game. They cannot stop the run and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Iowa has won 5 straight in this series and winning their games by an average of 30 points is just hard to overlook. Penn State was just as desperate last week against Iowa and they got killed. Nebraska has quarterback issues and whoever gets the start will struggle to move the football against this Iowa defense. Nebraska is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
NOTE: THIS IS A FIRST HALF PLAY. 10 Unit Play. Take #395 Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5 First Half Line) over Northwestern Wildcats (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 21 ABC) Big Ten Game of the Year Northwestern is 4-0, but they have started poorly in two of their four games. They would not have covered this number against Iowa or Nebraska, two teams that are inferior to Wisconsin. I expect Wisconsin to jump out early and feel great value lies with the first half line. Wish this line came in under a touchdown for the game, but the Badgers dominated Michigan last week and thus we are left with this higher number. Wisconsin is clearly the second-best team in the league, and the winner of this game will likely reach the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. The Wildcats have not been as impressive since their 40-point victory over Maryland to open the season, grinding out games against Iowa, Nebraska, and Purdue to reach 4-0. Their defense is good, but they have yet to face a team like Wisconsin that can beat you on the ground or through the air. I just feel that Wisconsin is better on both sides of the football (healthier for this game compared to last) and will pull away in the second quarter to win this game by double-digits. Northwestern can only play at a certain pace. And if they get behind, they will struggle to come back if they are one-dimensional. Wisconsin is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Northwestern is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 home games. |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 30 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #185 Oregon Ducks over Washington State Cougars (7p.m., Saturday, November 14 FOX) The Ducks have a chance to make the College Football Playoff and I just feel they are better on both sides of the ball in this game. Washington State has a new head coach, and they are very inexperienced at the quarterback position. The Cougars have been great against Oregon in recent years, but they no longer have Mike Leech and Anothy Gordon on the sidelines. The Ducks have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when they are the favorite. Oregon put up 35 points last week against a better defensive team in Stanford and they know they need to come out and dominate to break into the top 10 rankings. Wazzou is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a victory in their previous outing. |
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10-31-20 | Memphis v. Cincinnati -6.5 | Top | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 91 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #138 Cincinnati Bearcats over Memphis Tigers (12p.m., Saturday, October 31 ESPN) Really like this Cincinnati team and we will continue to use them with these low numbers. The Bearcats won in Dallas last week against SMU as a small underdog. Now they are back at home and face an easier team in Memphis. Payback is also on the line, as Memphis beat Cincinnati in back to back games last year to earn the Group of 5 New Year’s Six Bowl bid (Cincinnati covered both games). But this is not the same Memphis team, as they have a new coaching staff and gave up 500 total yards to Temple last week. The Bearcats has an outstanding defense allowing just 12.5 point per game and if they can score close to 30 points in this game they should easily cover. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Memphis. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. |
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10-24-20 | Wyoming v. Nevada +4.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 98 h 50 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #382 Nevada Wolf Pack over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday, October 24 CBSSN) Just believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. Nevada returns a ton of talent on both sides of the football including QB Strong, who played well as the season went on last year. They should be able to move the football on a Wyoming defense that does not return much talent and have the replace their defensive coordinator for the second straight year. Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Jay Norvell lost his father this week and I think they play an inspired game in his honor. |
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10-17-20 | Virginia v. Wake Forest +3 | Top | 23-40 | Win | 100 | 92 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #122 Wake Forest Demon Deacons over Virginia Cavaliers (4p.m., Saturday, October 17 ACCN) Just feel that the wrong team is favored in this game. Wake Forest needed some time off to get healthy and I feel their offensive is explosive and can score points with their up-tempo style. Virginia has quarterback injury issues, and they are coming off a home loss to NC State. They were not competitive in that game and they have lost 3 straight games to Wake Forest. Coach Clawson has won 4 straight games when they are an underdog of 3 points or less. This team played NC State much better than did Virginia and would have won that game if not for a couple of fluke plays. Virginia is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Wake Forest. The underdog is 5-2 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 meetings between the Cavaliers and Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 92 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #320 North Carolina Tar Heels over Virginia Tech Hokies (12p.m. Saturday, October 10 ABC) Both teams return a ton of talent from 2019 but I just feel Carolina has a major edge at quarterback and that will be the difference in this game. Braxton Burnmeister has not looked good in either start this season and has not thrown for over 170 yards in either game. QB Hendon Hooker may play in this game but he will be rusty having not played a snap this season. Virginia Tech had covid issues last week holding out a bunch of players. Carolina did not look impressive last week but they had a ton of time off and playing last week should get them back in the groove for this game. The Tar Heels have a strong rushing defense and the better quarterback in this game. Those are two indicators that this is the right side to take. The home team has covered the spread in this series 4 of the last 5 games. Virginia Tech is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. |
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10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State -2.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #136 Kansas State Wildcats over Texas Tech Red Raiders (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 3 FS1) Just do not trust Texas Tech. Both teams experienced dramatic games last week with Kansas State beating Oklahoma and Texas Tech blowing a big lead late against Texas. The Wildcats have dominated this matchup winning 8 of their last 9 games against the Red Raiders (7-2 ATS). Texas Tech just does not historically win these types of games, especially on the road. They have allowed 30+ points in 10 of their last 11 games. Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Big 12 games. |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee -3 v. South Carolina | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 35 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #405 Tennessee Volunteers over South Carolina Gamecocks (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 26 SECN) Tennessee got off to a horrible start last year but beating South Carolina by 21 points was the turning point. That was the first game of a six-game winning streak to close out the 2019 season. Tennessee is more experienced and that is a good thing since practices have been hard to come by during this Covid summer. The visitor is 18-5 ATS in the last 23 games between Tennessee and USC. Carolina was terrible on offense last year and I just do not have confidence that Will Muschamp is the guy to turn this program around. South Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 SEC games. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #108 NC State Wolfpack over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8p.m., Saturday, September 19 ACCN) Wake Forest has the advantage of having played last week but the home team has dominated this series. The home team has won 19 of the last 23 meetings and is also 18-5 ATS. NC State is coming off a rare down year in 2019 winning just 4 games but the track record of Dave Doeren suggests they will bounce back and have a winning record this year. Wake Forest has allowed 36.3 points per game in their last 6 games. Wake Forest is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game. |
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09-12-20 | Western Kentucky v. Louisville -11.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 4 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #406 Louisville Cardinals over WKU Hilltoppers (8p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACCN) Just liked how Louisville played in year one under Scott Satterfield winning 8 games including the Music City Bowl last time they took the field. They return a ton of playmakers on both sides of the football including Micale Cunningham, who threw for 22 touchdowns last year. They teams met last year at a neutral site and they game was over early with Louisville up 24 points at halftime before a minor comeback by WKU to only lose by 17 points. Louisville is expected to have some fans in the stands and that will only make this much more of a homefield edge. The Cardinals are 19-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 games against Conference USA teams. |
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09-07-20 | BYU -1.5 v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 105 h 16 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #243 BY Cougars over Navy Midshipman (8p.m., Monday, September 7 ESPN) The line movement tells me a lot for this game. Navy opened as a small home favorite of 2.5 but now BYU is favored at release time for this play. I always like extra time to prepare for the triple option and that is what BYU has for this game. QB Zach Wilson is back behind center for the Cougars and played better down the stretch last year winning 5 of his last 6 regular season games. Most year’s Navy has to rebuild and that is again the case this year losing their quarterback from last season. They were not as good as their record indicated last year and are just a middle of the pack team in the AAC this year. Navy is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games against Independent teams. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Indiana | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 221 h 33 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #293 Tennessee Volunteers over Indiana Hoosiers (Gator Bowl, 7p.m., Thursday, January 2 ESPN) Tennessee has had a remarkable turnaround winning 5 straight games to close out the regular season and get the fan base back on board. Both teams have a lot of experience, but I believe the best unit on the field will be the Tennessee defense. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Big 10 teams. Their last 3 bowl appearances have come against Big 10 teams and they have won those games by 17, 39, and 14 points. Indiana did not finish the season well, losing 2 of their last 3 games with only a 3 point victory against Purdue during this span. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #119 Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Big 10 Championship Game, 8p.m., Saturday, December 7 FOX) Sooner or later Ohio State is going to have a competitive game. They clobbered Michigan last week, but Wisconsin did the same thing to the Wolverines as well this season. The line opened at -18 but has bet down a little since 12/1/19 and I still think Wisconsin gives them a game and easily covers this spread. Penn State and Wisconsin both had to play in Columbus and getting to face them in Indianapolis will be a much different atmosphere. The underdog has covered the spread in 5 of the last 8 meetings (1 push). Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-30-19 | Arizona +13.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 58 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #419 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (10p.m., Saturday, November 30 ESPN) Arizona State is coming off a huge win against Oregon last Saturday, but now we have an inflated line in a rivalry game. The Wildcats are playing their final game of the season Saturday night and expect them to be competitive for 60 minutes. Arizona State has lost 4 of their last 5 games and they have home losses to USC and Colorado. Arizona State has only beaten 1 team all season (Kent State) by over tonight’s posted number. The Territorial Cup will remain with the Sun Devils but they win by just 7-10 points. The underdog is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games between Arizona and Arizona State. |
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11-16-19 | USC -6.5 v. California | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #361 Southern Cal Trojans over California Golden Bears (11p.m., Saturday, November 16 FS1) The Golden Bears have not been the same team as they were at the start of the season. They did beat Washington State last time out, but I do not see them winning another game when they are an underdog. USC has played a brutal schedule in 2019 and they have a chance for 8 wins should they win out. Clay Helton still has the respect of his players and expect them to go all out for him in the remaining two games. USC has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games in Berkeley. Cal is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 102 h 30 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #179 Tennessee Volunteers over Kentucky Wildcats (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 9 SECN) This is an important game for both team as the winner will likely reach bowl eligibility and the loser will struggle to win 6 games. Tennessee is 20-2 in their last 22 games against Kentucky (17-5 ATS). Tennessee will enter having won 2 straight games and covered the spread in 4 straight games. Kentucky is terrible on offense and I do not believe they can be one-dimensional in this game and beat Tennessee. The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Lexington. Kentucky is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played during the month of November. |
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11-02-19 | Georgia v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -106 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #372 Florida Gators over Georgia Bulldogs (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 2 CBS) Florida always has a big location advantage in this game since Jacksonville in much closer to Gainesville than is Athens. Georgia has not been playing well on offense of late and this is the best defense they will face to this point of the season. Florida has played well in all of their games this season and I do not see them getting blown out in this game. The Gators are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week. Florida is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win in their previous game. |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame +1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #207 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 26 ABC) Still cannot believe that Michigan opened as the favorite in this game. The Wolverines do not win games against top 10 teams and they are not great on either side of the football. Notre Dame still has a chance to make the College Football Playoff if they can win out and they should be able to win in Ann Arbor against a team that lacks confidence. The fan base will turn on Michigan if things do not go well early. If just seems that Coach Harbaugh cannot win these type of games. Notre Dame 7-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Michigan is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. The underdog is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games between the Fighting Irish and the Wolverines. |
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10-19-19 | Purdue +18 v. Iowa | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 95 h 48 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Purdue Boilermakers over Iowa Hawkeyes (12p.m., Saturday, October 19 ESPN2) BIG 10 TOP PLAY These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I just do not believe Iowa should be this big of a favorite. Purdue has righted the ship after losing their quarterback and they dominated Maryland last week in impressive fashion. Purdue has beaten Iowa two straight games and the visitor has dominated this series going 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Iowa is not explosive on offense and Purdue has played well in their last 7 quarters (last 3 against Penn State). Purdue was shell shocked early by Penn State but held their own after the first quarter and got a pass rush against them. Iowa is coming off back-to-back losses and have seen their hopes for a Big 10 Title Game appearance all but vanish. Iowa is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games. Purdue is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games. |
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10-12-19 | Washington v. Arizona +6.5 | Top | 51-27 | Loss | -109 | 104 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #152 Arizona Wildcats over Washington Huskies (11p.m., Saturday, October 12 FS1) The Huskies are overvalued this season and oddsmakers have yet to catch up with their current talent on the roster. The match-up has been dominated by the home team, as they have won 8 of the last 10 games (8-2 ATS). Washington has two bad losses on the season and Arizona will enter this game having won 4 straight games. Washington is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Arizona is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 home games. Both trends hold true tonight as Arizona wins this game straight-up. |
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10-05-19 | Texas -10.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #317 Texas Longhorns over West Virginia Mountaineers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 ABC) Just do not believe much in West Virginia this year. They have a new coach and system and will struggle to win any of their remaining games in the Big 12. For Texas to become elite again these are the type of games they must dominate. Texas lost at the buzzer last year to West Virginia and that revenge will allow them to win this game big. QB Kelly Bryant took apart this team winning 38-7 and I expect QB Sam Ehlinger to do the same. West Virginia is 7-22 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. |
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09-28-19 | Kentucky +3 v. South Carolina | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #157 Kentucky Wildcats over South Carolina Gamecocks (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 28 SECN) The Will Muschamp Era is on life support. USC has yet to defeat a FBS team this year and they have been blown out in their 2 SEC games this year. Kentucky collapsed against Florida two weeks ago and there was a residual effect last week against Mississippi State. Expect them to bounce back in a big way on Saturday against a team they have dominated in recent years (6-0 ATS last 6 meetings). Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played during September. |
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09-21-19 | SMU +9.5 v. TCU | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #379 SMU Mustangs over TCU Horned Frogs (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 21 FS1) The Frogs are coming off a dominating performance last week against Purdue, but they will not have the good fortune of playing a back-up quarterback in this game. SMU can put up points this year, and TCU will have trouble keeping up with them. SMU needs to contain the running game of TCU and force them to beat them through the air. The road team has covered 5 straight games in this matchup. TCU is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games. |
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09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #358 Tennessee Volunteers over BYU Cougars (7p.m., Saturday, September 7 ESPN) I always like taking a team off an embarrassing loss in Week 1 and Tennessee fits that bill to a T. Tennessee played poorly on both sides of the ball but they still have talent and they did not suffer major injuries in their last loss last week to Georgia State. BYU did not look impressive at all either last week at home against Utah. Tennessee would have been a double-digit favorite had they beaten Georgia State last week but now enter around a field goal favorite. That gives us great value with this play. BYU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against SEC teams. Tennessee bounces back to win this game big. |
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08-31-19 | Oregon +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 51 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #207 Oregon Ducks over Auburn Tigers (7:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 ABC) It is now or never for this Oregon team and the PAC-12 Conference all-together. Oregon has experience on both sides of the football and a quarterback offensive line combo that may be the best in the country. Auburn is just a middle of the pack team this year in the SEC and they have a coach that is on the hot seat. The SEC still have better players in the trenches but I just do not believe a freshman quarterback can walk into this type of game and beat this experience Ducks team. Oregon is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played during the month of August. Auburn is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 nonconference games. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +3 v. Oregon | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 123 h 26 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #262 Michigan State Spartans over Oregon Ducks (3p.m., Monday, December 31 FOX Redbox Bowl) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. Never been a fan of Mario Cristobal as a head coach. He was a very uninspired hire and his recruiting greatness never seems to match his coaching ability. The same cannot be said about Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, as he gets the most out of his talent and this year is no exception. Oregon may have the edge on offense, but Michigan State has the best defense they have seen all season long and Sparty also had a huge edge in special teams. QB Herbert will play in this game but I believe he is already thinking about the NFL draft and is not that concerned about winning this game. Oregon has been the favorite in their last 3 bowl games and they have lost all of them straight-up (2 of them by double-digits). Michigan State dominated Washington State in their bowl game last year and expect a similar performance this year in a California bowl game. Oregon is 5-15 ATS ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games following a victory in their previous game. Michigan State is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 neutral site games. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 220 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #238 Wisconsin Badgers over Miami Hurricanes (5:15p.m., Thursday, December 27 ESPN Pinstripe Bowl) Just do not see why Miami is favored in this no buzz rematch from a bowl game last year. Wisconsin picked apart Miami last year and their quarterback had a career game against them. I just get the feeling that they will rekindle some of that magic in this game against a warm weather team playing a late December game in New York City. Wisconsin has won 4 straight bowl games. Miami has lost three straight games and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Grab the points and expect Wisconsin to win this game straight-up. |
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11-24-18 | Arizona State v. Arizona +2 | Top | 41-40 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #234 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 24 FS1) PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR The home team has won the last 5 meetings in the Territorial Cup. Arizona needs to win this game to become bowl eligible and they have played much better down the stretch winning 2 of their last 3 games (both wins have come against teams that beat ASU). Arizona State should not be favored as they are just 1-4 straight-up on the road in 2018. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I like the way QB Khalil Tate has been playing over his last three games (12 touchdown and 3 interceptions). Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The underdog is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 Territorial Cup meetings. |
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11-17-18 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 94 h 28 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #416 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 FOX) Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country and they have a good chance to win their remaining two games on the schedule. They have been playing a home heavy schedule of late and this has allowed them to get healthy. Michigan State has a terrible offense and I just do not believe they will be able to attack and score consistently on this suspect Husker defense. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 straight games including our top play a few weeks ago when they blew out Minnesota. This is just a classic case of two teams heading in different directions. QB Arian Martinez can play and will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this conference. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State (4-1 in Lincoln). |
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11-10-18 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -12 | Top | 23-35 | Push | 0 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #156 Cincinnati Bearcats over USF Bulls (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 ESPN U) The Bulls are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games after a 7-0 start to the season. They will not get out of that funk tonight against Cincinnati a team that is a sneaky 8-1 on the season. USF is getting no respect from the linemakers evident by being a big underdog two of the last three weeks. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. USF played cupcakes to open the season and their defense will provide little resistance against the Bearcats. USF is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 AAC games. This is going to be a double-digit blowout for the Bearcats and we will collect big with them in the process. |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Southern -7.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 25-44 | Loss | -104 | 94 h 14 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #377 Georgia Southern Eagles over ULM Warhawks (3p.m., Saturday, November 3 ESPN 3) The Eagles continue to cover spread (7-1 ATS run) and the oddsmakers cannot get a handle on the talent they have. They will enter this game having won five straight games and have been controlling the time of possession in nearly every game that they play. Georgia Southern has beaten ULM all three times they have faced each other as conference opponents. This selection is simple, ULM has trouble stopping the run and Georgia Southern is an outstanding triple option team. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of November. |
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10-20-18 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -3.5 | Top | 28-53 | Win | 100 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #380 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 20 BTN) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. It ends tonight! Nebraska will put together a 60-minute game against a similar opponent talent wise and record their first victory of the season and first with Scott Frost as head coach. Minnesota played well last week at Ohio State, but I just do not believe they can put forth that same effort in this game. They did not play as well the last two games before that getting blown out by Maryland and Iowa. This will be their third road game in their last four games and both of their road games have come by double digits. I still like freshman QB Martinez and believe he will have success against this Gopher defense. The favorite in Gopher games has covered the spread 9 of the last 10 games. Nebraska had a 231-32 edge in rushing last week. Today is the day the stats reflect the result and Nebraska will win this game by double digits. We will hit a big play in the process as well. |
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10-13-18 | Georgia v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #198 LSU Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 CBS) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR Georgia has yet to be tested this season but their schedule ramps up from here on out. Playing at LSU is never an easy task and except them to be in for a 60-minute game today in Baton Rouge. LSU has covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. The Tigers have the speed to contain Georgia and I just do not see a blowout in this game. We will gladly grab the points and not worry about who pulls this game out by a field goal. |
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10-07-18 | Wyoming v. Hawaii -3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 106 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #414 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over Wyoming Cowboys (11:59p.m., Saturday, October 6) Wyoming has a major problem on offense and if Hawaii does not beat themselves with turnovers, they will win this game by double digits. Hawaii took Wyoming into overtime last year with QB Allen playing for the Pokes. He will not be on the island this year and the Cowboys are averaging just 18 points and 300 total yards. Hawaii is coming off a 5OT win on the road last Saturday and they now are on pace to make a bowl game this season. When Wyoming loses, it tends to be big as their three losses this season have come by 22, 27, & 20 points. Wyoming put a lot into their game last week against Boise State in Laramie and they performed poorly. The oddsmakers have not caught onto how bad Wyoming is this season, as they have not covered a spread in their last 4 lined games. |
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09-29-18 | Boise State -17 v. Wyoming | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 97 h 15 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #203 Boise State Broncos over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday, September 30 CBSSN) The Cowboys and their fans will be up for this game but the fact remains they just do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in this game. Wyoming is 2-2 this season but their wins have come against a terrible New Mexico State team and an FCS team in Wofford by just three points. If Boise State does not turn over the football they will win this game by 21+ points. Wyoming is 117th in the country in points per game and they have gotten pounded by Washington State and Missouri. I believe Boise State is better than both of those teams. Boise State has won 11 of the last 12 meetings. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. |
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09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon +3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 37 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #356 Oregon Ducks over Stanford Cardinal (8p.m., Saturday, September 22 ABC) This is a game that can put Oregon on the national radar once again. A win will likely prevent Stanford for reaching the PAC-12 Championship Game and set up a battle between Washington and Oregon on October 13. The Ducks result last week was misleading as they were clearly looking ahead to this game and have revenge on their minds after getting pounded last year in Palo Alto. Getting rid of Willie Taggert can only be beneficial evident by this lack of success at Florida State. Stanford is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in September. Oregon has the weapons to attack this Stanford defense and expect them to win straight-up. The Line has swing too much and the value now clearly lies with Oregon. |
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09-15-18 | Tulane -3.5 v. UAB | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane Green Wave over UAB Blazers (1p.m., Saturday, September 15 Facebook) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR UAB decided to bring back football for some reason after a two-year absence, but I just do not believe they can compete with teams from the American Athletic Conference. UAB is -77.5 ATS in their last 4 lined games and have lost 4 straight games against Tulane. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. Tulane is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against UAB. Tulane just missed out on being bowl eligible last year and with Ohio State on deck this is a must win game for them in their hopes of reaching 6 wins. Tulane returns a ton of experience on offense led by QB Bank and WR Encalade. They should be able to pick apart the Blazers on defense and I just do not believe UAB will be able to keep pace. Tulane pulls away in the second half to win this game by double digits. |
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09-08-18 | Wyoming v. Missouri -18 | Top | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 77 h 51 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #368 Missouri Tigers over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN U) The Tigers should have saw the blueprint of how to beat Wyoming if they scouted the game last week. Do not turn the ball over and make the Cowboys drive the 75 yards plus to score. Wyoming only had success last week against Washington State when the Cougars gave them short fields. The Cowboys were terrible on offense and will not be able to keep up in scoring in this game. Missouri has a tempo offense that usually scores points often and quickly especially against inferior competition. Wyoming is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played in September. Missouri is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5 | Top | 41-19 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 60 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #206 Wyoming Cowboys over Washington State Cougars (3:30p.m., Saturday September 1 CBSSN) TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. Wyoming lost QB Josh Allen to the Buffalo Bills but they return a ton of starters all around that position. Washington State does not start off well under Coach Mike Leach, losing 5 of their 6 openers including two against FCS teams. Wyoming has a strong defense and playing in Laramie is always a tough challenge. Wyoming is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Washington State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Getting points makes this our strongest play, as we fully expect the Cowboys to win this game straight-up. |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 14 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #262 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Washington Huskies (Fiesta Bowl, Saturday, 12/30 4 pm ESPN) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR, MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME I felt all season long that Penn State was the best team in the Big 10. They blew the game against Ohio State and they got tripped up the following week at Michigan State in a game delayed by weather. Despite Washington returning a ton of players from last year’s team that made the playoff, they did not look very impressive this season. They lost two games in which there were favored and played a very weak nonconference schedule. Penn State played a much more difficult schedule and they have a major edge on offense especially in the trenches. Penn State won their last three games to close out the regular season by an average of 35 points per game and I believe they will win this game by double digits as well. Penn State is 9-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #328 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm FOX) People keep doubting the Badgers but all the do is win games and I just do not see this Ohio State team being able to run up and down the field on them. This is the best defense Wisconsin has ever had and QB J.T. Barrett is not the type of quarterback that can beat teams throwing the ball consistently down the field. Wisconsin looked much more impressive in games against Iowa and Michigan than did Ohio State (common opponents). This just has a different feeling that other Wisconsin appearances in the Big 10 Title Game. This Badger team is extremely confident on both sides of the football and this not as strong of Buckeye team as we have seen in the past. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Expect a game that is very competitive that goes down to the wire, but Wisconsin pulls it out by a field goal to advance to the CFP. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #206 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. This is just a brutal scheduling situation for Penn State. They are coming off an emotional high by beating Michigan last week. This is a game their assistant coaches said they wanted to win big in the worst way. Now they must go on the road into a hostile environment against a team that must win out in order to make the College Football Playoff. Despite losing last year to Penn State, Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 match-ups and Coach Urban Meyer is 24-10 ATS (1 push) with revenge for losing to a team in the last meeting. Since their loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State has won five straight games with their closest margin of victory 31 points. Some like to point out that all these opponents Ohio State has played have been terrible but who exactly has Penn State played this year? Michigan is way down and Penn State could have very easily lost at Iowa on September 23rd. The posted line tells me a great deal about this game, as it opened at 7 after Penn State looked dominating last Saturday. It seems to me that odds makers were begging people to put money on Penn State. We will not fall for that trap and take the better team playing at home. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in their last 4 games. |
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10-07-17 | Missouri v. Kentucky -10 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #402 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm SEC Network) Missouri is a terrible team and we will go against them for a second straight week (Won big with Auburn in their last game). The Tigers have been blown out three straight games and only Auburn is a ranked team that they faced. Getting blown out by Purdue and South Carolina is a head scratching moment for a coach that is in over his head. This will be Missouri’s first road game and they are TERRIBLE on both sides of the football. They have nothing to hang their head on as their offense has not been able to move the football after their first game against an FCS team. Kentucky did not look that impressive against Eastern Michigan but they did hold the Eagles to just 20 yards rushing. Kentucky has a very solid rush defense and if they can make the Tigers one dimensional that should be enough to win this game big. We said two weeks ago that playing Missouri is a get-well game for the Auburn offense and the same thing will be true on Saturday for Kentucky. Missouri is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Kentucky has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 SEC games. |
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09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 41-0 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #180 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The SEC is a one team league and we have seen the other members go up and down and not be able to handle prosperity. Georgia is coming off a big win against Mississippi State and now must go on the road into hostile territory. The Volunteers have won two straight games against the Bulldogs despite trailing big in both of those games. Butch Jones is not a great coach but he has a habit of keeping the game close and he will accomplish this yet again on Saturday. The point spread has been over adjusted off Georgia’s game last week and we will take advantage of a favorable line. Georgia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory in their previous game. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn -19 v. Missouri | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #373 Auburn Tigers over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN U) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Missou opens the 2017 season with 4 straight home games and after Saturday they will have recorded just 1 victory. Missouri has a terrible defense and this is clearly a get-well game for Auburn. Missouri has given up 66 points the last two weeks against two bad offensive teams in Purdue and South Carolina. They fired their defensive coordinator last week and still looked terrible. Auburn looked better than their total score indicated last week moving the ball up and down the field but were down in by 5 turnovers. If they protect the ball this week they will win big. Missouri is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played in September. |
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09-16-17 | Wisconsin -13.5 v. BYU | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #153 Take Wisconsin Badgers over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) BYU has one of the worst offenses in the entire country. If Ty Detmer (offensive coordinator) were not a living legend at BYU he would have been replaced after the LSU game. I still believe there is a chance that may happen after this game. BYU has just produced two touchdowns the last two weeks and they came in garbage time against Utah last Saturday night. Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance in which they dominated the yardage (564-248) and time of possession but were did not cover the spread because of two turnovers. They will need to clean that up in this game. BYU will hold their own on defense but they will eventually wear down because of their lack of offensive efficiency. There seems to be a rift between the offense and the defense (including coaches) and this will be the best defense BYU has faced this season (Wisconsin beat LSU last year). Wisconsin has covered the spread in six straight road games. BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Badgers win this game by twenty points and we collect in the process as well. |
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09-09-17 | TCU -3 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 33 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #364 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) It is not often a road team is favored in a true SEC home game but it is well warranted in this situation. TCU returns a ton of experience from last year and they also have revenge on their minds after blowing a late lead to Arkansas last year in Fort Worth. TCU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road openers winning those 9 games by an average of 18 points per game. Coach Gary Patterson is too good of a coach to be down for long and I expect TCU to come close to recording 10+ wins this season. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 61% of the early money is coming in on Arkansas yet the line keeps going up. That tells me the smart money is backing the road team. |
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09-02-17 | California v. North Carolina -11 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #178 Take North Carolina Tar Heels over Cal Golden Bears (Saturday 12:20 pm ACCN) Always like going against west coast teams playing a 12 pm eastern time start on the east coast. Cal has a new coach and I expect them to struggle on both sides of the football against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 9-1 in their home openers over the last 10 years winning by an average margin of 35 points per game. The Bears got blown out in the last four losses in 2016 and they must replace all their skill position players from 2016. The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games when they are an underdog. UNC has covered the spread in 4 straight nonconference games. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 151 h 55 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #151 Take Clemson Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) This is just too many points considering Clemson has the much better offense and a couple of playmakers on defense. The spread is solely based on Nick Saban and the respect everyone has for him. He is great but as we saw last week with Urban Meyer, the head coach alone cannot will his team to a victory. Alabama has yet to see an explosive offense like Clemson that can beat you on the ground or through the air. The SEC was way down this year in terms of talent on offense and Deshaun Watson will pick them apart like he did last year. He has not played very many clean games in 2016 but I believe this will be a breakout performance that will propel him up the draft board. Throw in the fact that Clemson has revenge and I really believe Clemson wins this game straight-up. Clemson has covered the spread in six straight bowl games. Clemson is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. |
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12-28-16 | Kansas State v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 195 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #250 Take Texas A&M Aggies over Kansas State Wildcats (Texas Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28 9 pm ESPN) BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. The Aggies are starting to get healthy with Myles Garrett and Trevor Knight expected to suit up for this game. They just have too many weapons on offense for Kansas State to keep pace with. Everybody loves Bill Snyder but the game has passed him by as the Wildcats still feature a run heavy offense that can be contained by a disciplined defense. Kansas State has not been very competitive in their last two bowl games (both losses) and they will complete the trifecta this Wednesday. We went against them two years ago with our Bowl Game of the Year and UCLA dominated that game even though the final score did not indicate that (UCLA won and covered the spread). Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. A&M once again did not finish out the season well but the time off has done them good and they should be ready to finish out the season on a high note. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. A&M is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. Both trends hold true on Wednesday and we lay the small change with the more athletic team. |
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11-19-16 | Washington State v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 98 h 7 m | Show |
4 Unit Play. #374 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) These are two of the surprise teams in the country and very similar styles on offense. They both like to score points as quickly as possible. Both teams control their own destiny to make the conference championship game but I have not been impressed with the Cougars road play of late. They struggled to beat Oregon State and Arizona State and will face a much better team today in Boulder. Colorado is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Colorado is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa +7 v. Penn State | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #405 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 7:30 pm BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. Penn State is getting a lot of publicity for beating Ohio State but they are overvalued now. These are two similar teams and should be around a field goal spread and thus we will gladly grab this many points with a team that plays well on the road. Iowa has won nine straight road games including three conference games this season. This is not expected to be a whiteout for the home team and I just do not believe Penn State is good enough to be laying this many points against top teams in the league. Penn State was an underdog to Maryland and Pittsburgh this season and now they are a touchdown favorite against a better team than those two. Iowa is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. If they can stabilize this game early, it should go down to the wire. Penn State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Iowa is a better team as an underdog and their senior quarterback will make enough plays to keep this game close and pull out the straight-up victory. |