3 Unit  Play. Take #669 Cleveland State +10.5 over Youngstown State (3:30p.m., Wednesday, February 18 ESPN+) Just feel this is too many points for teams with a similar record in a one bid league. Cleveland State beat Youngstown State earlier this season and the Vikings have won 6 of the last 10 meetings. The two teams are a combined 1-5 in their last 6 games and I see this one going down to the wire.

7 Unit Play. Take #633 Wisconsin over Ohio State (8:30p.m., Tuesday, February 17 FS1) Ohio State has played the top teams in the conference close this season but does not have a Quad 1 victory. Now they are without John Mobley Jr, as he did not play in this last game against Virginia. Wisconsin has been rolling of late winning 8 of their last 10 games. They have beaten Ohio State 7 of the last 10 meetings. The Buckeyes have not beaten the Badgers since March 8 of 2023. Sooner or later, Wisconsin will get hot from the arc and pull away in this game.

2 Unit Play. Take #840 Milwaukee over Green Bay (3p.m., Sunday, February 15 ESPN+) Lot of praise is being given to Green Bay after their turnaround this season. They are 10-6 in Horizon League play yet have not had success against their in-state rival. The Panthers have beaten the Phoenix 4 of the last 5 meetings and their only loss was a 3-point affair on 1/5/26 last month. They will get revenge today and we will collect in the process.

7 Unit Play. Take #701 Over 142.5 in Purdue @ Iowa (5p.m., Saturday, February 14 FOX) Purdue is not the lock down defense team that they have been during the Zach Edey tenure. 151 points were scored when these teams met a month ago and that is how I see this game going as well. These two teams have played over the posted number today in 5 straight games. Obviously, things are different now with Iowa under a new coach and they do not play quite as up-tempo as they did with Fran McCaffrey. Iowa has scored at least 70 points in 5 straight games. Purdue has scored at least 80 points in 2 of their last 3 games and I feel both teams will get hot from the arc at some point in this game. This is a close spread and thus should be close with a bunch of points coming in the final two minutes of this game.

2 Unit Play. Take #882 Wisconsin over Michigan State (8p.m., Friday, February 12 FOX) Just feel the wrong team is favored with the opening line. We will back the Badgers, something we have done a bunch of late and hit the last 3 games that they have played. Wisconsin has had success against Michigan State winning 6 of the last 10 meetings including 3 of the last 4. Michigan State plays hard but lacks top end talent this year. At some point Wisconsin will get hot from the arc and put this game on ice.

4 Unit Play. Take #717 Creighton over DePaul (9p.m., Wednesday, February 11 Peacock) Just do not believe DePaul is good enough to be favored against this Creighton team. The Blue Demons are better this season and Creighton is down, but DePaul is still 12-12 on the season and 4-9 in Big East play. Creighton is 10-0 straight-up in their last 10 games against the DePaul.

Even though the Clippers gave up on the season with the trades for Zubac and Harden, this team still has some good players and we think they have a nice mix to compete and cover some spreads as big underdogs the rest of the season. Houston is five games under .500 ATS this season and they have covered only three of their last ten games. This team frankly stinks offensively, so they often can’t score enough to cover the inflated lines they face. They have won six of their last nine outright yet covered in only three of those games. The Clippers have won consecutive games, including a blowout win at Minnesota last time out. They should be confident they can compete tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #623 Wisconsin +10.5 over Illinois (8p.m., Tuesday, February 10 Peacock) Both teams are coming off a loss in a game they lead late. We will grab the points in this game and feel Wisconsin can keep it close for 40 minutes. The Badgers won the last meeting with the Fightin Illini by 19 points. Both teams score in the mid eighties and Wisconsin is due for a good shooting game from the arc.

The Clippers have given up on any hopes of a championship this season by sending away two of their best players for draft capital and younger players, and we don’t think this is a very good team. However, the players left here have a lot of pride and we think they will be competitive down the stretch. And they always have that guy Kawhi Leonard, who is a pretty good player when healthy. But the biggest reason we like LA here is that the Timberwolves are one of the worst teams ATS this season. They always play down to their level of competition and squeak out close games when laying big numbers. After a string of covering four straight they have now failed to cover in three straight and this line looks inflated here for Super Bowl Sunday. Minnesota has won five straight but the lines have been inflated and LA has covered in two straight and three of four, so they usually play it close. We expect that to be the case again here.

The Spurs have won and covered against Dallas in three straight meetings, including their meeting in Dallas on Thursday, a 135-123 win. In the past, these home-and-home, back-to-back meetings were rarer, and the losing team often covered the second game. But these types of games have become a lot more common and the better team has now often won and covered in both meetings. San Antonio knows they need every win they can get in their quest for the postseason as this team has a real chance for a championship this season as they have beaten the Thunder several times already. They won’t look past or take for granted their struggling in state rival. San Antonio has won three straight and four of five, so they are playing well. They have a couple key players who are gametime decisions, but we feel they will win big no matter who suits up as this team is stacked with talent.

7 Unit Play. Take #601 Wisconsin over Indiana (12p.m., Saturday, February 7 FOX) Wisconsin has had great success against Indiana in recent years going winning 7 of the last 9 matchups. Much of that was due to coaching but Indiana has a better coach now than in those past games. The Hoosiers are coming off a west coast trip and I see a letdown from them playing this early game in Bloomington. Indiana had a 4 games Big 10 losing streak in January losing to comparable teams as Wisconsin. The Badgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games and won 3 straight road games including beating Michigan 28 days ago. This game features great guard play, but Wisconsin should not be getting this many points in place they have had success at. The Badgers have two guards to can score points and I feel at least one of them will get it going in this game. Take the points.

The Clippers thew up the white flag on the season at the trade deadline, sending two of their three best players packing. Team morale can’t be too high right now. The new additions won’t be joining the Clippers on the court tonight, and the Kings have to think of this one as a winnable game. Sacramento has been one of the worst ATS teams this season, but we have to plug our nose and go with them tonight as we see value in the odds here.

3 Unit Play. Take #885 Connecticut -2 over St. Johns (8p.m., Friday, February 6 FOX) The Huskies have been the more consistent team this season. St. Johns is playing better of late but they struggled during the nonconference portion of the season and I do not believe the Big East is any good besides 3 teams. UCONN has lost the last 2 games to St. Johns and they will have a great crowd tonight at MSG. The Huskies have not lost a game since 

The Magic are one of the worst ATS teams in the league, and they are especially bad when laying big points. They are 1-6 ATS this season when laying 7.5 or more points, and their lone ATS win as a big favorite came all the way back on November 1. One of those ATS losses as a big favorite came against this same Brooklyn team, also back in November. In the first meeting this season between these teams, the Nets were up most of the game before a 26-16 fourth quarter that resulted in a 7-point Magic win when they were laying 14. Then, just last month, these teams met in Brooklyn, and the Nets took it to overtime before losing by a single point. Brooklyn had covered three straight but they were blown out in their last two against the Lakers and Pistons. This team has been good at bouncing back after a poor performance and we think they will play well tonight and keep this one close. Orlando has covered only two of their last eight games, and this team is underperforming and constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers.

2 Unit Play. Take #769 Over 161.5 in Penn State @ Michigan (6:30p.m., Thursday, February FS1) I truly feel that Michigan will come close to reaching 100 points in this game. Penn State is terrible on defense and Michigan should be able to name their score. We will not worry if they can cover this huge number and instead just focus on the over.

2 Unit Play. Take #670 Under 129.5 in South Alabama @ Appalachian State (6:30p.m., Wednesday, February 4 ESPN+) You hardily ever see a total this low in college basketball and thus we feel it is for good reason. Both teams play in the mid 300s in pace in all of college basketball and the Mountaineers have give up 63 points or less in 4 straight games.

We are going to take a crack at this super low total. Portland is coming off a high scoring game against the Cavs, and Phoenix has gone over in consecutive games. The Blazers defense has allowed 115 or more in three straight games. Three straight meetings have gone over the posted total, and the winning team scored in the 120s in each of those games (one went to OT). We see a close game here, and OT is not out of the question. We don’t think we will need it, however, as we think both teams grab their share of the total tonight.

This is the highest total these teams have faced in six meetings, five of which went under the posted total. The Hornets are one of the best under teams in the league this season at 30-20 to the under after 50 games. They are less than a point per game defensively out of the Top 10 for points allowed this season. They are a very underrated defensive team, and that is one of the big reasons that they have gone under so many times this season. We think they will notch another in the under column today. They have won six straight entering this Monday matinee, and that has been mostly on the strength of their defense, as four of their opponents scored 106 or fewer points, and three of them finished under the century mark. In fact, five of the Hornets last eight opponents have finished under 100 points, and that is some very strong defense in today’s NBA. The Pelicans are in the Bottom 10 for points scored this season, and if they want to be competitive in this game, they will have to step it up on the defensive end. They have been one of the worst defenses this season, but they have been better recently. They held the Grizzlies to 106, the Thunder to 104, the Spurs to 95, and the Pistons to 112 in their last six games. They have gone under in five of their last seven games overall. We don’t see the Pelicans breaking out for a good offensive game. If they want to keep this one close with a chance to win, it will have to come on the defensive end.

We like a good team off a bad loss, and Cleveland fits the bill today. They got spanked in Phoenix by 13 and the game wasn’t that close as the Cavs were down big all game. This team has been one of the worst ATS all season with a slow start combined with inflated lines. The odds have become more realistic, and the Cavs have been playing much better and overall have looked like the championship contender we have expected. The Blazers have lost four straight and covered only one of those games, and only by the hook. We think the cream will rise to the top today and Cleveland will get a comfortable win.

2 Unit Play. Take #837 Over 142.5 in Minnesota @ Penn State (2p.m., Sunday, February 1 Peacock) Penn State is the worst team in the Big 10 and they tend to give up a ton of points in their games. The Nittany Lions have gone over the posted total 4 straight games. This is their best chance for a win and thus I see this game being close and the over hitting late in this game.

The Pacers have one of the worst offenses in the league, and that is a big reason the under is 30-18 for the team this season. They often get blown out and don’t contribute their share of the total, or they step up on defense for a low scoring game. One of the rare overs was on Monday when these teams played in Atlanta. The Hawks had their way with the Pacers, in a high-scoring blowout. But the Pacers will make defensive adjustments since these teams played so recently. And they will likely play better defense at home. It’s telling that the total has dropped from the number on Monday. The Hawks have some players on the injury report that contributed a lot to the win on Monday. We think this will be a lower scoring game.

7 Unit Play. Take #656 Wisconsin -4.5 over Ohio State (2p.m., Saturday, January 31 FOX) Wisconsin is due for a beatdown at the Kohl Center. They have beaten Ohio State in 5 of the last 6 meetings. 4 of those 5 wins have come by over today’s posted number. Ohio State is not the same team on the road, and I see them struggling to keep this game in single digits. The Badgers are coming off back-to-back hard fought home games, and I see them pulling away late to win this game by 10 points. The Buckeyes have covered the last two games against the Badgers, but they lost that game straight-up. If that happens today Wisconsin will cover.

Cleveland is suddenly playing the way we all expected them to this season. They have won eight of ten and covered in seven of those games. This team was one of the worst ATS all season as they were figuring things out. Now that they have, they are a legit championship contender. We would say they have the most upside of any team in the East. Phoenix was the best ATS team all season but they are no longer getting the favorable lines that they once were. They have covered in only one of their last four games.

Brooklyn is in a pattern of playing well every other game. They have literally alternated covers and non covers for eight straight games. The losses haven’t even been close. This pattern looks like it could continue with a double-digit loss tonight then the Nets play a back-to-back tomorrow at Utah and that is a more winnable game. Denver is starting to play well without Jokic and they have covered three straight. Both teams have some injuries, but Denver has a much better team for what both squads will trot out on the floor tonight. We see the Nuggets getting a comfortable win at home tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #794 Southern Miss -1.5 over Appalachian State (8p.m., Thursday, January 29 ESPN+) The Golden Eagles just finished playing 4 straight road games and lost all of them. They are still 5-5 in conference play and need to get back on track tonight with a win at Reed Green Coliseum. Homecourt means everything in the Sun Belt Conference, and this is a desperate home team that needs a win badly to right the ship.

2 Unit Play. Take #735 Houston -7.5 over TCU (9p.m., Wednesday, January 28 ESPN2) TCU has not been the same team during Big 12 play and I see them losing this game to Houston by double digits in Fort Worth. The Cougars are coming off a tough loss to the Red Raiders over the weekend and they do not want to lose two games in a row. Houston has beaten TCU two straight times by an average of 18 points in those victories.

3 Unit Play. Take #708 Omaha +1.5 over South Dakota State (8p.m., Wednesday, January 28) Both teams are use to being at the top of the standing in the Summit and a loss tonight will knock them out of that. Both teams have been alternating wins and losses of late but I look for Tony Osborn to come up big tonight for the home team.

Cleveland has won and covered the last two meetings and four of the last six. We really love what we have seen from the Cavs lately as they are rounding into midseason form. They have been one of the worst bets in the NBA as they had too high of expectations from the oddsmakers combined with a slow start and lack of chemistry. But they have won four straight and six of seven, and they have been covering on a more regular basis. The Lakers have been winning, too, but they have had a very easy schedule lately. They got handled by the Clippers in their most recent difficult matchup. Cleveland has shown they can score lately and they can match the Lakers on offense, but LA isn't a strong team defensively, and Cleveland is. They held the Lakers to 110 points the last two meetings, and both were double-digit blowouts. And the crowd should be really into this one tonight with their former franchise player coming back to town. It's always one of the biggest home games of the year for any team when the Lakers come to town. And we expect the Cavs to respond with a comfortable win tonight.

We were on the Nets last time after their 50+ point loss to the Knicks when they faced the Celtics the next game, and they played much better and almost won outright. Then the Nets went out the next game and lost big to the Clippers. The Nets seem to play hard every other game, and they have alternated covers and non covers for seven games now. We feel they will play hard here tonight off the embarrassing loss to LA. The Suns have been one of the best ATS teams in the league this season but the word is out and now they aren’t getting the value in the lines anymore. They have covered just one of their last four. One of those games was a nine-point loss at Brooklyn. The Nets have actually covered in four of the last six meetings and won outright in their last two trips to Phoenix.

3 Unit Play. Take #306657 Over in Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M (2p.m., Tuesday, January 27) The over has hit in the last two meetings and 6 of the last 10 meetings overall. Both teams went over the posted total in their last game scoring 175 points and 163 points (both in defeat). 

The Cavaliers seem to be rounding into mid-season form, while the Magic are floundering. These teams are playing a back-to-back, home-and-home, as Cleveland won easy, 119-105 in Orlando on Saturday. Normally we would go for the losing team in these situations, but there have been a lot of sweeps this year in these situations, and we just like what we have seen from the Cavs lately. They have won five of six, with their only loss coming against the defending champs. With the loss on Saturday, Orlando has lost five of eight, with their wins coming against Brooklyn, New Orleans and Memphis. With Saturday’s win, Cleveland has won and covered in four of five meetings with the Magic. Cleveland has played four back-to-back sets like this already this season, and they won and covered the second game in three of four tries. Orlando has lost SU and ATS in the second game of both similar sets they have played this season.

OKC is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games and they are just not playing as hard every game like they did last season. But they are still being lined like last season, so we can pick spots for value by going against them. That certainly looks good tonight. The Raptors are on their last game of a five-game road trip and it has gone very well so far as they have won and covered in three straight. We think they will want to finish strong here against the defending champs, which is always a game circled on the opposing team’s schedule each season. OKC has lost two of four outright, including last time out vs. the Pacers, and they aren’t in top form right now. Toronto is a very strong road team and we think they can keep this one within double digits.

2 Unit Play. Take #854 Wisconsin -8 over USC (4p.m., Sunday, January 25 Peacock) Wisconsin is on a roll at the moment and will enter this game having won 5 straight Big 10 games. The Badgers beat the Trojans by 15 points last season in Los Angeles and that is how I see this game going as well at the Kohl Center. USC is coming off 2 straight home losses and they are coming apart again this season.

7 Unit Play. Take #635 North Carolina over Virginia (12p.m., Saturday, January 24 ESPN2) Just do not see Virginia blowing out North Carolina in the noon timeslot. This game got shifted due to the winter storm and I am not sure how that benefits Virginia laying this many points. North Carolina would have been a favorite in this game before the season starts and they got back on track against Notre Dame last time out. The Tar Heels have beaten the Cavaliers in back-to-back games by a combined 25 points. This is a game where both teams may come in flat and we will grab the points in this early tilt. Virginia is rolling, but they have losses to Butler and Virginia Tech. Carolina laid an egg last week in the Bay Area, but this is a more traditional ACC road game.

Brooklyn won outright the last meeting in November, and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. We like to take a team off a bad loss, and they don't get any worse than what the Nets experienced last time out as they lost by more than 50 to the Knicks. We were on New York in that game but didn't expect it to be that easy. They will no doubt be more focused here and probably be hustling a lot for lose balls and rebounds. We are probably getting a couple extra points on the line here because of that performance, and the Celtics have been playing well. Boston has a back-to-back at the Bulls coming on Saturday, so it's likely they won't go 100% in this one, while we expect the Nets to do just that.

We don’t yet know if Kawhi Leonard will suit up for the Clippers and the odds will change based on his availability, but we like the Lakers to take this one Kawhi or not. The Clippers used to always cover against the Lakers and this was one of their biggest matchups every season, but with the Clips getting their own arena, it kind of removed the chip on their collective shoulders, and the Lakers have won and covered in five of the last seven meetings. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping factor, but we are sure the Lakers remember the last meeting, which was a Clippers blowout where the Lakers scored only 88 points. We forsee a much better effort tonight.

4 Unit Play. Take #777 Wisconsin -5.5 over Penn State (7p.m., Thursday, January 22 FS1) Penn State has actually won 2 straight games against Wisconsin, but they are young and rebuilding this season. Wisconsin has won 7 of the last 10 games when you stretch this out and is hitting Penn State at the right time. The Nittany Lions have lost 8 of their last 9 games only beating NCCU during this span. NCCU is North Carolina Central, I just looked it up. Penn State has played a brutal conference schedule, and it is starting to take its toll of them. They will lose tonight by double digits.

4 Unit Play. Take #694 North Carolina -12 over Notre Dame (7p.m., Wednesday, January 21 ESPN2) The Irish have lost 5 straight games to the Tar Heels and only two of those games were losses under single digits. Notre Dame has not been the same since their lost to Cal under questionable officiating, losing their next 3 games all but double digits. Carolina had a bad road trip to the Bay Area and needs to get back on track and Notre Dame should provide them an opportunity for a blowout double-digit victory.

2 Unit Play. Take #665 Kansas -4.5 over Colorado (11p.m., Tuesday, January 20 ESPN) The Jayhawks are coming off back-to-back dominating home wins against Iowa State and Baylor. Both of those teams are better than what they will see tonight from Colorado. The Buffaloes are on a 2-5 skid, and it will not matter if Bill Self is coaching, Kansas will win this game by close to double digits.

The Spurs barely broke a sweat in beating the Jazz by double digits last night for their third straight win, and we don’t see the B2B affecting this young team much. They will be up for facing their in state rival tonight. The Rockets have had all kinds of trouble offensively lately and even though they have picked up some wins, they are not covering games as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. We think the Spurs have a great chance for the outright win, and they won by double digits in their only meeting this season.

2 Unit Play. Take #878 Marquette (pk) over Providence (6p.m., Monday, January 19 FS1) Both of these teams are bad, but I do not believe Marquette will continue to lose most of their home games. The Golden Eagles have won 4 straight games against the Friars. 3 of the victories have come by at least 22 points and all 4 victories have been by double digits.

The Cavs won the last meeting outright and they have won three of the last four meetings at home. OKC is clearly the best team in the league again this season, but they just aren’t running away with games like they did last season. They were far and away the best betting team last year but now are lower middle of the pack in ATS ratings. They aren’t playing as hard on a nightly basis and also they have inflated lines by the oddsmakers. This line certainly seems inflated. The Cavs have won and covered three of four, and this team looks all the sudden like one that can cover some lines after a poor ATS performance most of the season. This is one of the biggest home games of the season in Cleveland, and we expect them to show up and challenge for the outright win.

2 Unit Play. Take #829 Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland State (2p.m., Sunday, January 18 ESPN+) The Phoenix have turned it around after last season, but I am not ready to trust them over their head coach. Oakland has won 7 of the last 8 meetings with Green Bay including a 24 point victory the last time these two teams met.

Atlanta has played seven of their last eight on the road, and they have been playing better basketball overall despite the results maybe not being evident because of this long road stretch. But we feel this is a good spot for them to compete for a win. The whole Trae Young saga is in the rearview mirror, and this team he left behind is solid. Boston has covered only four of their last five games, and they have been overrated by the oddsmakers. The Hawks have won and covered in four of the last five meetings, so they usually raise their level of play against the Celtics. After consecutive losses, we think the Hawks bring their A Game tonight.

1 Unit Play. Take #894 Boise State -5.5 over Colorado State (10:30p.m., Friday, January 16 FS1) I have not given up on Coach Rice and feel this Boise State will make a run at some point this season in the MWC. They are struggling at the moment but still have talent and are facing a similar team on Friday Night. The line being this big tells despite Boise State being 1-5 tells me this is the correct play.

3 Unit Play. Take #888 DePaul -3.5 over Marquette (8:30p.m., Friday, January 16 FS1) For DePaul to be favored against Marquette that tells you have down the Golden Eagles are this season. The Blue Demons are just 2-4 in Big East play, but they have played a brutal schedule with losses to UCONN (2), St. Johns, and Villanova. They have beaten the teams they should beat, and Marquette falls into that category. The Golden Eagles sit in last place in the Big East and not taking transfers has finally caught up to this program.

We always say that revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in NBA betting. When a team loses to another one the previous month, they have had so many intense games between then that they likely don’t remember the loss too much or they have more recent games that the players focus on. Honestly, many of the players in the NBA probably don’t even think much about past games unless there was a massive blowout or a skirmish that stays in their head. But when revenge does come into play is when teams play in consecutive games like we are seeing tonight with the Cavs and Sixers. This is when revenge comes into play as the game is still fresh on the losing team’s minds, and we love to take the losing team in a true revenge spot like this. This one ticks several boxes for us. Philly gets both games at home, instead of a home-and-away. They were blown out and embarrassed, so they should make adjustments and play with more focus. And Philly has been a superior ATS team (23-15-1) compared to Cleveland (13-19), one of the worst betting teams this season. The Sixers should have all their key players for this one, and Garland is out for the Cavs and he had a huge game on Wednesday with 20 points and 7 assists.

Houston has been on a strong under run, with six of their last seven games going under the posted number. They have been playing solid on defense, but they have scored 105 or less in all those games that went under. We don’t see a breakout game on offense against the Thunder here. This one should have a playoff atmosphere and these teams could definitely meet in the postseason. When these teams met in October, the game reached only 208 at the start of overtime. These teams are both Top 3 defenses for points scored this season, and we think we will see a lot of strong defense here tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #306534 Vermont -12.5 over Maine (7p.m., Thursday, January 15 ESPN+) Maine is coming off a rare win this season last time out, but expect a return to the norm on Thursday. The Catamounts have beaten the Black Bears 9 of the last 10 meetings, but that lone last came last time out. Revenge will be served on the court tonight in a blowout at Patrick Gymnasium.

Cleveland has been one of the worst bets in the NBA all season, and Philly one of the best. We are happy to play the moneyline here and expect Philly to take care of business at home. The Sixers are looking like a championship contender again now that Embiid is back, and it looks like he will play tonight even though he is listed on the injury report. They are likely to have pretty much their full squad, and this is an important game. Cleveland just lost by double digits to Utah, and they have lost three of five overall. They are not playing well right now. Philly has won six of eight, and we trust them to take care of business on their home court.

2 Unit Play. Take #680 Purdue -10 over Iowa (6:30p.m., Wednesday, January 14 BTN) Purdue playing at home is never a bad bet. Iowa State ran them out of the building for their only loss on the season, but I do not expect Iowa to do the same thing. The Hawkeyes are off to an impressive start, but they are still rebuilding under a new coach and they are not ready for this environment. Purdue has beaten Iowa 8 of the last 10 meetings, and this game should be a double digit victory for them on Wednesday.

These teams played three times in December, and the Spurs won all three as underdogs and of course covered all three spreads. We said before those games that the Spurs are a potential threat to the OKC dynasty. They match up well against them, the Thunder have no answer for Webanyama (no team does), and they have great depth after stockpiling young talent in the draft for years. They always seem to raise their level of play against OKC. The Thunder do not have that killer instinct to just destroy teams like they have in the past. After being by far the best ATS team last season, they are 19-21 ATS this year. They are still being overvalued by the oddsmakers and have failed to cover in five straight. They just aren’t playing their best right now and still being overvalued on the lines.

5 Unit Play. Take Wisconsin over Minnesota (7p.m., Tuesday, January 13 BTN) Wisconsin is coming off an impressive victory at Michigan on Saturday. I do not see a letdown in this game since they are still outside the bubble and need to accumulate wins. This is a rivalry game that has been dominated by Wisconsin, as they have beaten Minnesota 9 straight games. Minnesota has some good wins this season, but they lost at home to USC last time out and I see them losing two games in a row at the Barn.

This game should be a blowout, so that would bode well for the under. We have been handicapping the NBA since the early 2000s and back then it would be crazy to see a total in the 250s, but here we are. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league, and Cleveland one of the best offenses, so the Cavs will get their points. But will Utah get their share? They scored only 95 points last time out vs. Charlotte. This team has been an over machine all season, but the bookies have started to adjust their totals too high, and they have now gone under in five of the last eight. This is only their second total in the 250s this season, and the last one, against Golden State earlier this month, went under by almost 15. Cleveland has also gone under in five of their last eight games. They are coming off a high scoring game against Minnesota. But they face a big step down in competition here.

The Thunder have failed to cover in four straight games, and this team is doing enough to get the job done but they aren’t winning big lately. The Heat have been an excellent ATS team this season and we think they will play hard here. When you face off against the defending champs, that is always one of the biggest games of the season. Will OKC have the same enthusiasm for this game? Probably not. They know they can give 75% and still win this one, and they are smartly learning to tone it down in the regular season as you have to save energy and health for the postseason.

2 Unit Play. Take #856 Wichita State -7.5 over North Texas (3p.m., Sunday, January 11 ESPNU) Both teams sit at the bottom of the standings in the American Athletic Conference. Wichita State has never beaten North Texas yet they are a big favorite at home in this game. That tells me the correct side is the lay the points.  

This is a revenge spot since the Pistons lost in LA right before the new year. The Pistons had an off night and they couldn’t hit anything from deep. But now they have won four of five since that loss and they catch the Clippers on a back-to-back and they have had two nights rest. Kawhi Leonard doesn’t always play in back-to-backs and he has nagging injuries so his status is in question tonight. Hopefully Cunningham suits up tonight for the Pistons after a couple days of rest. The Pistons are incredible at home, while the Clippers have won only five games on the road after beating Brooklyn on Friday.

7 Unit Play. Take #640 Creighton -1.5 over St. Johns (2p.m., Saturday, January 10 FS1) St. Johns is just not very good this season especially when playing other good teams. Creighton got off to a slow start this season but they have turned it on winning 5 of their last 6 games and they are always a tough team to beat in Omaha. They are coming off a solid road victory against Villanova last time out. St. Johns does not have any quality wins this season and their Big East wins have come against Georgetown, DePaul, and Butler. The Red Storm do not have a point guard and that has bite this all season long. Creighton has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with St. Johns and will get revenge at home after losing to them twice last season.

2 Unit Play. Take #893 Over 147 in UNLV @ Colorado State (10p.m., Friday, January 9 CBS Sports Network) This line has been coming down all morning and now I believe the value lies with the over. The over has hit 60% of the time over the last 10 meetings between the Rebels and Rams. Colorado State’s last game featured 150 points and that is how I expect this game to go as well.

The Clippers have resorted back to a mediocre team after their six-game winning streak and they have lost two of three, with both losses coming in blowout fashion. We think the Nets have a great chance to win here. Kawhi is hurt again, and that is probably the most predictable thing we could expect with this team this season. He is listed as questionable as of this writing, but we think this will be a close game with or without Leonard. The Nets have covered in five of their last eight games and this is a team we targeted for ATS value at the start of the season. They did not play well to start but have been a much better team lately, and we expect them to compete hard tonight.

The Pacers are the worst team in the league and come into this one having lost 13 straight. The Hornets aren’t a good team, but they have won two of three, including their blowout vs. the Thunder, and they should have no problem with a comfortable win here. They have covered in five straight and eight of nine. They have also covered in four of five meetings with Indiana. This is a great spot to fade the Pacers without laying too many points, as they will be getting a ton of points down the stretch of the season.

2 Unit Play. Take #306547 St. Francis over Wagner (7p.m., Thursday, January 8) The NEC is bunched up through two games this season with all but two teams 1-1. Two of the last four meetings have gone into overtime and St. Francis did win the last game these two teams played last March. All 3 games played last year were deiced by three or less points and I see this game going down to the wire as well.

OKC is coming off consecutive losses, rare for this team, including a very embarrassing blowout here vs. Charlotte last time out. This team doesn’t care about the regular season as much as last year, but we don’t think they want a three-game losing streak and we think we see their A Game tonight. They have certainly displayed that A Game in recent meetings with Utah, a team they match up very well against. They have won three straight against the Jazz – all in Utah – by 30 or more points, and they have won five of the last six meetings by 20 or more. This is a team that can dominate if they want to, and we think that urgency will be on display tonight. Utah lost by 20 at Portland last time out, and they are facing a big step up in competition here.

3 Unit Play. Take #663 Furman -1.5 over Chattanooga (5p.m., Wednesday, January 7 CBSSN) These teams are heading in opposite directions, and we will take the small road favorite on Wednesday. Furman has won 6 of their last 7 games but also lost 4 straight games against the spread. Chattanooga has lost 4 of their last 5 games and they are on a 2-5 ATS run. Furman wins this game as they have the better talent in this matchup.

7 Unit Play. Take #658 Nevada over San Diego State (11p.m., Tuesday, January 6 FS1) This is a tough spot for the Aztecs, as they played a triple overtime marathon game on Saturday night against Boise State. That is the same Bronco team the Wolf Pack already pounded this season by 15 points at Lawlor. Nevada has been playing outstanding basketball of late winning 7 straight games and they are doing the things necessary to win. They get to the free throw line and do not turn over the basketball, and I see them jumping out early and cruising to a victory against an overrated Aztec team.

These teams played in Miami on Saturday, and the Timberwolves earned a ten-point victory. Throw revenge out the window, as this is an overrated NBA handicapping factor and these teams have each played another game since then. They both won that game, so both teams should come in happy. Miami has been generally playing well lately, but they have enjoyed a home-heavy schedule, and this team is much better at home than on the road. Minnesota stated the season as one of the worst ATS teams, as they would often win but not cover. They have started to gel, however, and have been covering numbers on a more consistent basis. They have covered in three of four, including that easy win at Miami, and they should have no problem with them here at home as they are healthy and confident right now and rounding into mid-season form.

The Knicks are the superior team, in our opinion, and the Pistons are in a bad spot here with some injuries and on a back-to-back after a hard fought game against the Cavaliers on Sunday. The Knicks were off Sunday and had time to regroup after losing their third straight to a rejuvenated Philly squad on Saturday. We just don’t see the Knicks losing four straight and this team should really bring their A Game tonight. They have won and covered three straight in Detroit stretching back to the playoffs, and they will be confident they can pick up the win tonight in enemy territory. Detroit looked good on Sunday, but they have covered in only two of their last six and have won two of five. They just aren’t in peak form tonight, and we think the Knicks are by far the more motivated team here.

3 Unit Play. Take #874 Ohio State over Nebraska (6:30p.m., Monday, January 5 FS1) It end’s tonight! Nebraska will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten against a good Ohio State team that is playing at home. The Cornhuskers are coming off a tough victory against the Spartans on Friday and I expect a letdown in this game. The Buckeyes have beaten the Huskers two of the last three meetings and they need this game more to improve their resume. They will pull away late and win by six to eight points.

Cleveland matches up very well with the Pistons and they have won nine of ten against them and covered in four of the last six. These teams are going in opposite directions right now as Cleveland has won three straight, while the Pistons have lost three of four. Detroit has covered in only one of their last five, and the Cavs are on a 5-1 ATS run. Duren is out for Detroit today, so things won’t get any easier missing a starter. All the sudden Cleveland is playing the way they were expected to, and they have shown a lot of confidence during this winning streak. It was obvious they would put it all together at some point, and this looks like that time. This is a huge game for them, and we expect a comfortable win today.

The Celtics have won three straight meetings and five of six. We expect them to get the win here also. The Clippers have won six straight to climb back into the playoff race, but we just don’t think this team is that good. Kawhi Leonard is playing like a man on a mission lately, but he has shown in recent years that he can’t sustain that level of play, and just when you think this Clippers team has turned a corner, they usually play a bad game. The oddsmakers truly are back behind the Clippers as we had the Celtics handicapped as a slight road favorite here. Boston is one of the best ATS teams this season and the Clippers one of the worst. We expect LA’s winning streak to come to a screeching halt tonight.

4 Unit Play. Take #758 Wisconsin +6.5 over Purdue (8p.m., Saturday, January 3 FOX) Wisconsin is soft this season but they are desperate for a quad one win. They are always a tough out at the Kohl Center and I believe that they can take this game down to the wire. Wisconsin has beaten Purdue two straight games, and they are a perfect 8-0 at home this season. Purdue is not as strong inside this year and that is the weakness of Wisconsin. I expect the Badgers to make some shots from the arc and keep this game within reach for 40 minutes.

2 Unit Play. Take #864 Rutgers over Ohio State (8p.m., Friday, January 2 Peacock) The Scarlet Knights are not very good this season, but they are playing at Jersey’s Mike’s Arena and I believe they can keep this game within single digits. Notre Dame and Pittsburgh are similar teams to Rutgers and Ohio State struggled to win both of those games. They beat Notre Dame by one point but lost to Pittsburgh by one point. I think they will be a low scoring game, and we will grab the points.

Two straight and four of the last five meetings have gone over. We think this matchup will follow that pattern. These teams have been playing some OK defense lately but we think this matchup of bad teams will produce a game where both teams will get their share of the total. The Wizards are the second worse defensive team in the league. When these teams met here in November the Nets put up 129, and we could see a big scoring night for them tonight. Their offense has been inconsistent, but this looks like a possible breakout game for them, and they are trending to the over recently, with three of the last four games going over. The Wizards have gone under their last few games but they have been a strong over team all season, mainly because of that defense, and we are getting a low number as a result. We have some players out here for both teams but we don’t think that will be a factor and we think this has the possibility to be a close game and expect both teams to contribute their share on this total.

3 Unit Play. Take #766 Little Rock (pk) over Tennessee Tech (6p.m., Thursday, January 1 ESPN+) John Pelphrey has not been able to get Tennessee Tech on track during this tenure and I see him struggling again in 2026. Little Rock is 5-1 in the head to head in this matchup and playing at home will put them over the top.

2 Unit Play. Take #722 Georgetown +9.5 over St. Johns (8p.m., Wednesday, December 31 FS1) Georgetown is getting better and I feel St. Johns is overrated this year. This is a lot of points to be laying in a true road game against conference opponents. I feel this game will go down to the wire and we will cash this ticket with whoever grinds out a victory.

This number has been overadjusted and is too high. The Hawks have been playing in some high scoring games lately, but Minnesota has been playing excellent defense overall and we think this one will likely wind up in the 130s. Will be a high scoring game but won’t make it into the 140s or higher. The Timberwolves have had only one game in their last eight that has gone into the 140s, and that was the OT game against Denver where the total was well under the posted total when the game went to OT (we remember this one well as we had a big play on the under). If that game had avoided OT, six of the last eight for the Wolves would have gone under. These teams have gone under in three straight meetings, and the last meeting didn’t even get to 200 in a 100-92 Timberwolves win. The highest total we saw in those three games was 121.

The Clippers seem to be back to being a competitive team. They have won and covered four straight, and three of those were against legit championship contenders. Kawhi Leonard is playing otherworldly basketball right now and may have had his best game as a Clipper against the Pistons last time out with 55 points, 11 rebounds, 5 steals and 3 blocks. One of the best games of his career, and Harden is playing well too. After digging a big hole for themselves they have to take every game seriously as they try and climb back into the playoff race. Luckily, they face a very beatable Kings team that is going nowhere fast. This team is even worse ATS than the Clippers, and they have had the benefit of getting lots of points on a nightly basis from the oddsmakers.

2 Unit Play. Take #622 Wisconsin over Milwaukee (7p.m., Tuesday, December 30 BTN) Wisconsin is not a tough team this year, but they have bullied the weaker teams on their schedule. They are getting Milwaukee after playing a game last night and I do not expect the Panthers to have much left in the tank for this game. Wisconsin avoid playing this game in recent years and I see them winning tonight by 28+ points.

The Spurs are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. They had a hiccup last time out in a loss to the Jazz but a letdown after their epic Christmas Day win over the Thunder was expected. They should be very motivated to get back on track here. The Cavs have been very inconsistent and they have been one of the worst ATS team all season. They certainly seem overvalued in this one. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings, and this is definitely the best San Antonio team the Cavs have faced. Cleveland won earlier this month at home vs the Spurs, but we think that this is a great spot for San Antonio to get their revenge.

2 Unit Play. Take #846 Louisiana Tech -2 over UTEP (7:30p.m., Monday, December 29 ESPN+) Look for the Bulldogs to win this game at home. They have won 2 of their last 3 games but 2 of those wins came against non-division one teams. Nonetheless they built confidence in those game and that should allow them to take down a 4-7 UTEP team tonight. La Tech has won 3 of the last 4 games against UTEP.

The Clippers have won three straight, but we don’t think this is a good team. They are being overvalued against a healthy Pistons team tonight. The Clippers are notorious for looking like they have turned a corner only to lay an egg in a game like this, and we expect a comfortable Pistons win here. Detroit is 11-5 on the road, while the Clippers are 5-8 at home. Detroit has a winning ATS record, while LA is 11-19 ATS on the season despite three straight covers. The Clippers have owned this series for years, but this is a different Pistons team. It’s worth noting that Detroit has covered in eight of the last ten meetings.

2 Unit Play. Take #745 Over 152.5 in Gonzaga @ Pepperdine (8p.m., Sunday, December 28 ESPN+) The Bulldogs have gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 10 games. That includes an going over the posted total 4 straight games. The Waves have gone over the posted total in their last two games. We will not worry if Gonzaga can cover this big number and instead just focus on the over.

The Nets are a team we always thought would be a sneaky good ATS team this season but early in the season they were on the wrong end of a lot of blowouts. But this team has been improving over the course of the early season and we are starting to see the team we envisioned at the outset. They have covered in four straight games and five of six. They have won two straight outright, and three of four. Minnesota is going to be overvalued by the oddsmakers almost every night. They have been one of the worst teams in the NBA ATS this season. And this team often plays down to its competition in games like this and doesn’t give 100 percent effort. They usually wind up with a win but not the cover. We could see a hangover also from their epic OT Christmas game against the Nuggets, and we think the Nets keep this one within double digits.

Boston has to be pissed they were snubbed for the Christmas Day game after playing in that game the past eight years. This team has shown they are still elite and deserved to be there. We think they will take it out on the lowly Pacers. The Pacers are a dumpster fire and their home court advantage has evaporated as they have lost three straight here. Indiana has one of the worst offenses in the league and they only managed 95 points when these teams played on Monday. They followed that up with a 94-point effort against Milwaukee on Tuesday. We don’t see them doing much better than they did Monday, but Boston has a chance to put up more points on offense.

Sometimes in the modern day NBA bookies just have to slap a high total on teams with good offensive players and hope for the best. Denver is one of the top over teams in the NBA and Minnesota is one of the top under teams. We think Minnesota will really establish strong defense here. Six of their last eight opponents have scored 108 or less. That's elite defense in this day and age. Denver has some noteworthy injuries tonight, and we don't see their offense working at the highest level, which it would take to top this total, in this game. This is a crucial division matchup on a national stage, and we think both teams will ramp up the intensity on the defensive end. Last year both of these teams played in low scoring games on Christmas, as Minnesota beat Dallas 105-99 and Denver lost to Phoenix, 110-100. Minnesota has gone under in five straight, while Denver has gone under in two of their last three.

These teams have gone over in four straight meetings. The Rockets will push the pace here and they have the third best offense in the league, averaging 121 points per game exactly on the season. The Clippers are coming off a low scoring game against the Lakers last time out but they won’t hold the Rockets to 88 points like they did the Lakers. Because of that game we think the oddsmakers overadjusted this total. These teams played two weeks ago and the total reached 228. We don’t see a reason this one would come in almost 10 points lower than that game.

Detroit is one of the best teams in the NBA and they are also a strong ATS team and strong road team. We think they get the job done against this banged-up Portland club tonight. Portland has won three straight, and the win over the Warriors was solid. But their two wins against Sacramento didn’t impress, and they didn’t even cover in either of those games. Detroit has won four straight in this series, and that includes consecutive covers here in Portland.

2 Unit Play. Take #828 Missouri +10 over Illinois (8p.m., Monday, December 22 FS1) I am not as high on Illinois this season as some people are. They are coming off a home loss to Nebraska, and I do not see them winning this rivalry game by double digits in the state of Missouri. The Tigers do not have any quality wins this season and this is their last chance to get one during nonconference play. It means more to them and I see this game doing down to the wire.

A couple years ago you could blindly bet on the Clippers in this matchup and win most of the time. We always said this is a one-sided rivalry as the Lakers are the Clippers biggest rival, but the Lakers have a lot of more traditional rivals they have cultivated over the years. But this Clippers team is so bad now. Their stars know they could be on the way out of town any day now and they just don’t get much support from a very underwhelming supporting cast. Kawhi has definitely lost a step, and there aren’t really many players who can step up late if the game is close. We don’t expect this to be close, however, and think the Lakers will earn a comfortable win.

8 Unit Play. Take #661 Over 146.5 in Arkansas vs Houston (5:30p.m., Saturday, December 20 CBS) NONCONFERENCE COLLEGE BASKETBALL GAME OF THE YEAR Just feel both of these teams are solid on offense and this is a low total that is based on the history of Houston Basketball under Kelvin Sampson. I do not believe Houston will play a grind out defense against this Arkansas team that can score points in a variety of ways. Houston has not suffocated the better teams on their schedule thus far in 2025, giving up at least 72 points to Auburn, Syracuse, and Tennessee. Houston is also scoring points of late hitting 80 points or more in their last 3 games.

Arkansas is averaging 90 points per game this season, good for 21st in the country in points per game. They have scored at least 80 points in their last 7 games including putting 93 points on the board against Texas Tech last Saturday. This team wins game by outscoring their opponents and I see them reaching at least 75 points in this game. I believe Duke is a better defensive team than Houston and the total points in that game finished at 151. I see this game finishing around 155. The Cougars have gone over the posted total in 2 of their last 3 games. This is a very low total for the Razorbacks game and they have way over the posted number in their last two games. Finally, all 3 meetings between these two programs have gone over this posted number on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #874 Wisconsin over Villanova (8p.m., Friday, December 19 FOX) Wisconsin is soft but I believe they have enough talent to beat a rebuilding Villanova team in Milwaukee on Friday night. Playing in Milwaukee gives Wisconsin a major edge in home crowd fans and they need this game more. Wisconsin does not have many quality wins this season and this is a chance for a possible quad one victory in nonconference play come March.

Miami was one of the best ATS teams to start the season but they have really fallen off lately and are close to a 50 percent ATS team. They have covered only two of their last ten games, which shows they are overrated by the oddsmakers. We think this line is off as well. Boston did lose their last two both SU and ATS, but before those tough games (vs. Detroit and at Milwaukee), they were on a 10-2 run both ATS and SU. They have had a few nights off to regroup from the losses, and we think they will be fired up for this matchup. They usually are, as Boston has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings. Miami scored a rare win here in Boston last time these teams met, and we have no doubt that the Celtics remember that game. Miam has played very well at home this season but are only 5-8 on the road, and we think Boston will win comfortably here tonight.

Just think this line is a bit inflated and the Jazz have played well at home. They have the shooters to challenge for the win if the shots fall, and these teams met here in Utah late last month and the game was close, with the Lakers earning a two-point win. Utah has covered three straight meetings at home, and they always raise their level of play when the Lake Show come to town.

3 Unit Play. Take #691 Georgetown +5.5 over Marquette (8:30p.m., Wednesday, December 17 FS1) The Hoyas have not had much success against the Golden Eagles in recent meetings, but this is the year everyone can get Marquette. Not taking transfers has set back this program and they are coming off back to back pounding by Purdue and Marquette. Georgetown struggled as well against better teams, but this is a conference game and they already beat Maryland, a team that won in Milwaukee earlier this year.

We are always looking for spots to fade the Timberwolves, who are one of the worst teams ATS this season and a team that seems like they will continue to fail to cover spreads all season. They are overrated by the oddsmakers and they don’t care about winning pretty or winning big and just want to be in a good place once the postseason starts. Memphis all the sudden is playing to their potential and have won three of four and six of eight. They have seven covers in their last ten games. We expect a close game here.

Both teams are playing incredibly well right now but the Spurs have covered a lot vs. the Knicks and even though these teams don’t play often, they have covered in five of the last six and they have won two of the last three outright. The Spurs have had a tougher schedule lately and we just like them a little more than the Knicks right now and on a neutral court for this NBA Cup Final we thought a PK would be more appropriate for a line but we will take the points here as we think this one could go down to the wire and we feel San Antonio has a great chance to grab the hardware.

3 Unit Play. Take #629 Oral Roberts +5 over Missouri State (8p.m., Tuesday, December 16 ESPN+) Both of these teams have similar records, and I see this game going right down to the wire. The total has dropped a bunch and when that happens that is usually a good indicator to play the underdog. The Golden Eagles are coming off two straight wins and have covered the spread in 6 of the 10 games against the Bears.

2 Unit Play. Take #763 Over 140.5 in Charlotte @ Charleston (4p.m., Sunday, December 14 FloSports) The Cougars are at home and should be able to score in the high seventies in this game. That is something they have done in 3 straight games and I see it happening again on Sunday. Chalotte got embarrassed on offense last time out and I look for a bounce back today.

We think the Spurs are a team that can threaten the OKC dynasty that looks like it will likely happen. They have been stockpiling top tier young talent, and the cornerstone is Wembanyama, who return to action here in this NBA Cup semi-final matchup. The Spurs have been one of the teams that has consistently covered against the Thunder. They have covered in two of the last three meetings and three of the last five. We think at this point the Thunder are the better team, but we definitely think San Antonio will keep this one within double digits. No blowout tonight!

4 Unit Play. Take #602 Texas Tech over Arkansas (12p.m., Saturday, December 13 ESPN2) This game is being played in Dallas and is a rematch of the Sweet 16 game last year. Arkansas blew that game and I see that having a carryover effect into this game. Both teams are 7-2 this season but I see Texas Tech rounding into form after their blowout win over LSU last time out.